Academic literature on the topic 'CREEP ESTIMATION'

Accurate and reliable component life prediction is crucial to ensure both the safety and economics of gas turbine operations. In the pursuit of improved accuracy and reliability, current model-based creep life estimation methods have become more and more complicated and therefore demand huge amounts of work and significant amounts of computational time. Because of the underlying problems arising from current life estimation methods, this research aims to develop an alternative performance-based creep life estimation method that is able to provide a quick solution to creep life prediction while at the same time maintaining the achieved accuracy and reliability as that of the model-based method. Using an artificial neural network, the existing creep life prediction subprocesses and secondary inputs are ‘absorbed’ into simple parallel computing units that are able to create direct mapping between various gas turbine operating and health conditions or gas path sensors and creep life. The outcome of this research is the creation of three proposed neural-based creep life prediction architectures known as the Range-Based, Functional-Based and Sensor-Based. An integrated creep life estimation model was first developed and incorporated into an in-house performance simulation and diagnostics software. Using the integrated model, the effects of several operating and health parameters on a selected turbo-shaft engine model turbine blade’s creep life was initially performed using an introduced Creep Factor approach. The outcomes of this investigation were then used to populate input-output samples to train and validate the neural-based creep life prediction architectures. To ensure that the proposed neural architectures are able to achieve generalisation and produce accurate creep life prediction for both clean and degraded engine conditions, four-stage assessments were carried out. Finally, the effects of input uncertainties on the creep life prediction were investigated to assess how sensitive the proposed architectures are to different levels of uncertainty. The results show that all of the proposed neural architectures were able to produce accurate creep life predictions for both clean and degraded engine conditions. When comparing the three proposed architectures, the Sensor-Based architecture was found to be the most accurate in both conditions. Despite the accurate creep life prediction, it was also found that all of the proposed architectures were sensitive to input uncertainties with the Functional-Based architecture being the least sensitive to the uncertainty.

The aim of this study is to develop a combined experimental and analytical framework for accelerated lifetime estimates of semi-crystalline plastic pipes which is sensitive to changes in structure, orientation, and morphology introduced by processing conditions. To accomplish this task, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is chosen as the exemplary base material. As a new accelerated test protocol, several characterization tests were planned and conducted on as-manufactured HDPE pipe segments. Custom fixtures are designed and developed to admit uniaxial characterization tests. The yield behavior of the material was modeled using two hydrostatic pressure modified Eyring equations in parallel to describe the characterization test data collected in axial tension and compression. Subsequently, creep rupture failure of the pipes under hydrostatic pressure is predicted using the model. The model predictions are validated using the experimental creep rupture failure data collected from internal pressurization of pipes using a custom-designed, fully automatic test system. The results indicate that the method allows the prediction of pipe service lifetimes in excess of 50 years using experiments conducted over approximately 10 days instead of the traditional 13 months. The analytical model is joined with a commercial finite element package to allow simulations including different thermal-mechanical loading conditions as well as complicated geometries. The numerical model is validated using the characterization test data at different temperatures and deformation rates. The results suggest that the long-term performance of the pipe is dominated by the plastic behavior of the material and its viscoelastic response is found to play an insignificant role in this manner. Because of the potential role of residual stresses on the long-term behavior, the residual stress across the wall thickness is measured for three geometrically different HDPE pipes. As expected, the magnitude of tensile and compressive residual stresses are found to be greater in pipes with thicker walls. The effect of the residual stress on the long-term performance of the pipes is investigated by including the residual stress measurements into the numerical simulations. The residual stress slightly accelerates the failure process; however, for the pipe geometries examined, this acceleration is insignificant.<br>Doctor of Philosophy<br>The use of plastic pipes to carry liquids and gases has greatly increased in recent decades, primarily because of their moderate costs, long service lifetimes, and corrosion resistance compared with materials such as corrugated steel and ductile iron. Before these pipes can be effectively used, however, designers need the capability to quickly predict the service lifetime so that they can choose the best plastic material and pipe design for a specific application. This capability also allows manufacturers to modify materials to improve performance. The aim of this study is to develop a combination of experiments and models to quickly predict the service lifetime of plastic pipes. High-density polyethylene (HDPE) was chosen as the plastic material on which the model was developed. Several characterization tests are planned and conducted on as-manufactured HDPE pipe segments. The yielding behavior of the material is modeled and the lifetime predictions are evaluated. The predictions are validated by experimental data captured during pipe burst tests conducted in the lab. The results indicate that the method allows the accurate prediction of pipe service lifetimes in excess of 50 years using experiments conducted over approximately 10 days instead of the traditional 13 months, resulting in significant savings in time (and consequently costs) and making it possible to introduce new materials into production more rapidly.

For any machine designed to generate power, or to fulfill its functions in general, maintenance actions will have an impact on many aspects of its overall capabilities, especially its performance and the length of its useful life. Since these are vital in order to generate maximum profit, the maintenance actions that affect them must be given serious consideration. For this reason, this research aims to propose a method that will enhance the cost saving potential with more accurately determined maintenance intervals and greater exploitation of the remaining life of the components by utilizing the capabilities of condition based monitoring. Initially, the research focuses on the description and the understanding of maintenance methods as they are performed within the aviation industry, but it also aims to investigate the state of the art Condition Based Monitoring Maintenance (CBMM) and its associated advantaged relating to the older methods. The thesis begins by describing the fundamental aviation maintenance management domains, paying particular attention to CBMM, and continues with the diagnostic and prognostic methods that are in use in order to support the condition monitoring concept. Next, a description is given of the actual implementations of the CBMM process, with the presentation of the maintenance enhancement systems, namely the Central Maintenance System and the Aircraft Condition Monitoring System. Lastly, a case study is presented of the estimation of the remaining useful life of a turbine blade, as it relates to the primary failure mode of creep. The case study endorses the use of the condition monitoring diagnostic methods discussed previously and also aims to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the Engine Usage Diagnostics at both the design and the into-service stage. The created/simulated engine performance models concern several operating conditions of the engine while the impact of each of those on the remaining useful life of the blade is investigated. The benefit of this research is that it proposes a practical, effective, and relatively easy way to perform maintenance by predicting the need according to the usage. Additionally, the data required have already been measured, which paves the way for the creation of more intelligent engine control units. The contribution and innovation of the research is demonstrated by the fact that no similar approaches to creep life prediction have been published for the same type of engine, namely the CFM56 5B2. Last but not least, the results are presented in the most beneficial form of remaining hours before the failure.

This thesis presents how to establish a theoretical model to predict risk of thermal cracking in young concrete when cast on ground or an arbitrary construction. The crack risk in young concrete is determined in two steps: 1) calculation of temperature distribution within newly cast concrete and adjacent structure; 2) calculation of stresses caused by thermal and moisture (due to self-desiccation, if drying shrinkage not included) changes in the analyzed structure. If the stress reaches the tensile strength of the young concrete, one or several cracks will occur. The main focus of this work is how to establish a theoretical model denoted Equivalent Restraint Method model, ERM, and the correlation between ERM models and empirical experiences. A key factor in these kind of calculations is how to model the restraint from any adjacent construction part or adjoining restraining block of any type. The building of a road tunnel and a railway tunnel has been studied to collect temperature measurements and crack patterns from the first object, and temperature and thermal dilation measurements from the second object, respectively. These measurements and observed cracks were compared to the theoretical calculations to determine the level of agreement between empirical and theoretical results. Furthermore, this work describes how to obtain a set of fully tested material parameters at CompLAB (test laboratory at Luleå University of Technology, LTU) suitable to be incorporated into the calculation software used. It is of great importance that the obtained material parameters describe the thermal and mechanical properties of the young concrete accurately, in order to perform reliable crack risk calculations.  Therefore, analysis was performed that show how a variation in the evaluated laboratory tests will affect the obtained parameters and what effects it has on calculated thermal stresses.

A new methodology of polymer pipe lifetime estimation taking into account residual stresses is described in this thesis. Engineering equations derived based on numerical simulations of a hydrostatic pressure test are proposed. Residual lifetime calculations were performed for different loading conditions using experimental data of a creep crack propagation in studied material and stress distribution in the pipe wall. The effects which significantly influence lifetime estimation were quantified with special focus on residual stresses.

The Lusk Creek Watershed, located in Pope County, IL, long has been recognized as a high quality area and as biologically significant. Yet, surveys of the macroinvertebrate fauna have been limited. Thus, a survey of the benthic insect community in the upper portion of Lusk Creek was conducted from May 2003 to April 2005. Eleven sites were selected and characterized by physical properties and water chemistry. Insect distribution patterns, abundance, and diversity (richness, evenness) were examined. A total of 20,888 specimens, mostly immatures, were examined during the study and represented eight orders. The Diptera, by far, was the most common order, with 18,590 specimens, almost all of which were members of the Chironomidae and Simuliidae. The EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) combined were common with 1,550 specimens but paled in comparison to the Diptera. The Coleoptera was represented by 647 specimens, almost all of which were members of Stenelmis (n = 612). The Shannon diversity index (H') showed that the H' values for individual sites were similar to those reported for other relatively undisturbed streams. Analyses of richness suggested that as many as 37 taxa were unobserved, indicating the survey was incomplete.

O método convencional de ensaios para a obtenção das curvas de fluência de geossintéticos pode necessitar de períodos de até 10.000 horas. Entretanto, a utilização de ensaios acelerados têm se mostrado bastante eficiente, especialmente para avaliar rapidamente a qualidade do material. Estudos bem sucedidos realizados por diversos autores, utilizaram o método Stepped Isothermal Method (SIM) para acelerar a fluência nos geotêxteis. Neste trabalho, com base neste método foi estimada a fluência de dois geotêxteis com 300 g/m² do tipo não tecido de poliéster (PET) de fibra curta e contínua. Neste estudo, foi analisada a fluência causada por carregamentos de 5, 10, 20, 40 e 60% da carga que causa a ruptura do material. Com base nos resultados conclui-se que os valores de deformação por fluência obtidos são satisfatórios, pois as previsões de alcance de até 355 anos estão próximos aos valores encontrados na literatura internacional. Ainda, para o tempo de 100 anos ficou evidenciado que para o geotêxtil não tecido do tipo PET, de fibra curta ou contínua, o comportamento mecânico do geotêxtil é mais influenciado pela deformação inicial do que pela fluência.<br>The conventional method of tests to achieve the geosynthetic creep curves may require times of up to 10,000 hours. However, the use of accelerated tests have shown to be very effective, especially for rapidly assessing the quality of the material. Successful studies by various authors used the Stepped Isothermal Method Method (SIM) to accelerate creep in geotextiles. In this work, based on this method was estimated creep of two non-woven geotextiles of polyester with 300 g/m², short or continuous fiber. In this study, creep caused by loads of 5, 10, 20, 40 and 60% of the rupture load of the material was analyzed. Based on the results, it is concluded that the creep strain values obtained are satisfactory, because up to 355 years range forecasts are close to those found in the literature. Still, for the 100-year time, it became evident that for the nonwoven geotextile type PET with short or continuous fiber, the mechanical behavior of the geotextile is more influenced by the initial deformation than by creep.