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1
he, xiaofeng. "CREDIT CYCLE, CREDIT RISK AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS." NCSU, 2001. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-20010718-110156.
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We first present a Complex Singular Value Decomposition (CSVD)analysis of credit cyle and explore the lead-lag relation betweencredit cycle and business cycle, then propose a GeneralizedLinear Model (GLM) of credit rating transition probabilitiesunder the impact of business conditions.To detect the cyclic trend existence of credit condition in U.S.economy, all credit variables and business variables aretransformed to complex values and the transformed data matrix isapproximated by first order of CSVD analysis. We show that theeconomy, represented by both credit conditions and businessconditions, is changing recurrently but with different frequenciesfor different time periods. Credit variables making the greatestlinear contribution to first Principal Component can be identifiedas credit cycle indicators. The result of leading businessvariables to credit variables in an economy provides the basis topredict credit condition by business cycle indicators.The credit rating system is a publicly available measure of theriskiness of financial securities and a rating transition matrixquantifies the risk, by permitting calculation of the probabilityof downgrade or default. Credit migration is observed to beinfluenced both by business conditions and by an issuer's owncredit status. We assume the rating history for a particularinstitution is Markovian, and histories for differentinstitutions are assumed to be statistically independent, in bothcases the history of market conditions are known. With a simpleGLM, we investigate the significance of business conditions andtheir two major impacts - creditworthinessdeterioration/improvement and credit stability. We propose amodel of transition probability in discrete time and a model ofinstantaneous transition rates in continuous time, and fit themby maximum likelihood. Business conditions are shown to have asignificant effect: higher likelihood for credit qualityimprovement and stability under good business conditions whilehigher likelihood for credit quality deterioration and driftunder severe business conditions. The two business impacts aresignificant and business deterioration/improvement impact isgreater than its stability impact on credit rating transitions.Investment-grade rating transitions are more sensitive to longrate risk while speculative-grade rating transitions are moresensitive to short rate risk. Compared to a discrete model, thecontinuous transition model has much greater over-dispersion butis more practical.
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Jericevic, Sandra Lynne. "Loan contracting and the credit cycle /." Connect to thesis, 2002. http://eprints.unimelb.edu.au/archive/00000737.
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Kubin, Ingrid, and Thomas Zörner. "Human Capital in a Credit Cycle Model." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2017. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5681/1/wp251.pdf.
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We augment a model of endogenous credit cycles by Matsuyama et al.(2016) with human capital to study the impact of human capital on the stability of central economic aggregates. Thus we offer a linkage between human capital formation and credit market instability on a macrolevel combined with an analysis of functional income distribution. Human capital is modelled as pure external effect of production following a learning-by-producing approach. Agents have access to two different investment projects, which differ substantially in their next generations spillover effects. Some generate pecuniary externalities and technological spillovers through human capital formation whereas others fail to do so and are subject to financial frictions. Due to this endogenous credit cycles occur and a pattern of boom and bust cycles can be observed. We explore the impact of human capital on the stability of the system by numerical simulations which indicate that human capital has an ambiguous effect on the evolution of the output. Depending on the strength of the financial friction and the output share of human capital it either amplifies or mitigates output fluctuations. This analysis shows that human capital is an essential factor for economic stability and sustainable growth as a high human capital share tends to make the system's stability robust against shocks.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Santos, João Ramiro Rodrigues Simões dos. "Credit cycle identification: A Markov-switching application." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11723.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsThis project aims to study credit dynamics and to identify phases of credit cycles at the country level. We applied a Markov-switching (MS) autoregressive framework and a MS with regime-invariant macroeconomic variables to a broad concept of credit, domestic credit. We used a sample of 10 developed countries. MS identification power is assessed using smooth probabilities of low growth states, collected as a by-product of models estimation, against historical databases of crisis events. Conclusions support that MS is accurate in identifying credit cycle phases, and that domestic credit is a good variable for such identification. Additionally, Credit Gap, excess growth over GDP and Broad Money contribute positively to the MS predictions.
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Marchesini, Camilo. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Instruments, and the Credit Cycle." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-388488.
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I study optimal monetary and macroprudential policies in a New Keynesian DSGE framework with leverageconstrainedbanks. In particular, I assess the desirability of alternative operational policy rules when theeconomy is hit by mortgage default shocks and show that their implications for inflation dynamics and policytrade-offs depend on whether the shocks originate in the household sector or in the entrepreneurial sector ofthe economy. Moreover, I find that the strategy of ‘leaning against the wind’ (LAW) of credit growth deliverssystematically poorer stabilization outcomes than standard flexible inflation-targeting when there exists anon-trivial trade-off between stabilizing output and inflation, but outperforms conventional monetary policyfor shocks that generate a comovement between the two, irrespective of the real or financial nature of theshock.I show that optimal macroprudential regulation that is as concerned with output as monetary policy candrastically reduce, and in many cases completely eliminate, the incentive to lean against the wind. I arguethat this is due to the ability of full-fledged optimal macroprudential policy to break the favourable complementaritybetween stabilizing credit growth and stabilizing output growth which underlies the incentive tolean against the wind. Macroprudential policy proves a superior substitute to LAW because it can achieve thesame financial stability objectives without systematically imposing costs in terms of price stability.
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Poudel, Rajeeb. "Single Notch Versus Multi Notch Credit Rating Changes and the Business Cycle." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2015. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc848118/.
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Issuers’ credit ratings change by one or more notches when credit rating agencies provide new ratings. Unique to the literature, I study the influences affecting multi notch versus single notch rating upgrades and downgrades. For Standard & Poors data, I show that rating changes with multiple notches provide more information to the market than single notch rating changes. Consistent with prior literature on the business cycle, I show that investors value good news rating changes (upgrades) more in bad times (recession) and that investors value bad news rating changes (downgrades) more in good times (expansion).
I model and test probit models using variables capturing the characteristics of the previous issuer’s credit rating, liquidity, solvency, profitability, and growth opportunity to determine the classification of single notch versus multi notch rating changes. The determinants of multi notch versus single notch rating changes for upgrades and downgrades differ. Business cycle influences are evident.
Firms that have multi notch rating upgrades and downgrades have significantly different probit variables vis-à-vis firms that have single notch rating upgrades and downgrades. The important characteristics for determining multiple notch upgrades are a firm’s prior rating change, prior rating, cash flow, total assets and market value. The important characteristics for determining multiple notch downgrades are a firm’s prior rating change, prior rating, current ratio, interest coverage, total debt, operating margin, market to book ratio, capital expenditure, total assets, market value, and market beta. The variables that differ for multi notch upgrades in recessions are cash flow, net income, operating margin, market to book ratio, total assets, and retained earnings. The variables that differ for multi notch downgrades in expansions are a firm’s prior rating change, current ratio, interest coverage ratio, debt ratio, total debt, capital expenditure and market beta.
The power of the explanatory tests improves when the stage of the business cycle is considered. Results are robust to consideration of rating changes across rating categories, changes from probit to logit, alternative specifications of accounting variables, lags and leads of recessions and expansions timing, Fama and French industry adjustments, and winsorization levels of variables.
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Chiu, Ching-Ngai. "Critical analysis of relationship between real estate cycle and credit ratings." Click to view the E-thesis via HKU Scholars Hub, 2006. http://lookup.lib.hku.hk/lookup/bib/B37937583.
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Pu, Lifen. "Credit ratings and banking regulations in the context of real estate cycle." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2009. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B41895642.
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Pu, Lifen, and 普麗芬. "Credit ratings and banking regulations in the context of real estate cycle." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2009. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B41895642.
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Sousa, Maria Inês Ferreira Drumond. "Essays on Macroeconomics of Banking: Credit Frictions, Business Cycle and Bank Capital." Tese, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/7418.
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EconomiaDOCTORAL PROGRAMME IN ECONOMICS
O papel das imperfeições do sistema financeiro na propagação de choques exógenos na economia tem sido tema de debate constante na literatura, com implicações significativas ao nível institucional. A principal questão em jogo é saber se as referidas imperfeições são capazes de transformar choques exógenos de pequena magnitude em movimentos amplificados e persistentes do produto agregado. Esta dissertação insere-se nesta linha de investigação analisando a forma como as estruturas microeconómicas, tais como a forma de financiamento dos bancos e a relação entre estes e os seus clientes, interagem com as condições macroeconómicas. Este trabalho contribui para clarificar o papel do capital dos bancos e da sua regulação na propagação dos ciclos económicos, tendo em conta a presente alteração nos requisitos mínimos de capital proposta pelo Acordo de Basileia II. Após o Capítulo 1, que articula a literatura teórica sobre a relação entre o capital dos bancos e os ciclos económicos com a literatura sobre os requisitos de capital exigidos pelos Acordos de Basileia, o Capítulo 2 propõe um modelo dinâmico de equilíbrio geral no qual os bancos estão sujeitos a requisitos mínimos de capital ajustados pelo risco. Tendo em conta que a emissão de capital pelos bancos é mais onerosa do que os depósitos, devido à preferência das famílias por liquidez, e que esta diferença de custo tende a aumentar (diminuir) durante uma recessão (expansão), exploramos, neste capítulo, um canal adicional através do qual os efeitos dos choques exógenos na actividade económica são amplificados o bank capital channel. Este efeito de amplificação é mais forte quando introduzimos as regras propostas por Basileia II (por oposição a Basileia I). Para avaliar com mais exactidão os potenciais efeitos pró-cíclicos de Basileia II, integramos, no Capítulo 3, a relação entre o banco e as empresas às quais este empresta num modelo de agentes heterogéneos, de acordo com o qual as condições de acesso ao crédito por parte de cada uma dessas empresas dependem do seu risco de crédito. Este modelo permite-nos concluir que, na medida em que (i) é mais dispendioso deter capital dos bancos durante uma recessão e (ii) o portfolio do banco é caracterizado por uma fracção significativa de pequenas empresas fortemente dependentes do crédito bancário, a introdução de Basileia II acentua as tendências pró-cíclicas do sistema bancário, amplificando as flutuações dos ciclos económicos.
The role of financial frictions in the propagation of exogenous shocks in the economy has been subject of much debate in the literature and of significant implications at the institutional level. The main issue at stake is whether financial frictions are able to transform small exogenous shocks to the economy into amplified and persistent movements in aggregate output. This dissertation fits in this line of research by centering its attention on how microeconomic structures, such as the bank funding structure and the relationship between banks and borrowers, interact with macroeconomic conditions. It contributes to clarify the role of bank capital and its regulatory environment in the propagation of business cycles, taking into account the current institutional changeover from Basel I to Basel II bank capital requirements. After Chapter 1, that brings together the theoretical literature on the relationship between bank capital and the business cycle with the literature on the regulatory capital requirements under the Basel Accords, Chapter 2 proposes a dynamic general equilibrium model in which banks are constrained by a risk-based capital requirement. Taking into account that bank capital is more expensive to raise than deposits, due to households' preferences for liquidity, and that this difference tends to widen (narrow) during a recession (expansion), we explore an additional channel through which the effects of exogenous shocks on real activity are amplified - the bank capital channel. This amplification effect is larger under Basel II than under Basel I rules. To evaluate more accurately the potential procyclical effects of Basel II, we embed, in Chapter 3, the bank-borrower relationship into a heterogeneous-agent model, in which firms have different access to bank credit depending on their credit risk. We conclude that, to the extent that it is more costly to hold bank capital during recessions and that the bank's loan portfolio is characterized by a significant fraction of highly leveraged and small firms, the introduction of Basel II accentuates the procyclical tendencies of banking, amplifying business cycle fluctuations.
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Sousa, Maria Inês Ferreira Drumond. "Essays on Macroeconomics of Banking: Credit Frictions, Business Cycle and Bank Capital." Doctoral thesis, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/7418.
Full textAbstract:
EconomiaDOCTORAL PROGRAMME IN ECONOMICS
O papel das imperfeições do sistema financeiro na propagação de choques exógenos na economia tem sido tema de debate constante na literatura, com implicações significativas ao nível institucional. A principal questão em jogo é saber se as referidas imperfeições são capazes de transformar choques exógenos de pequena magnitude em movimentos amplificados e persistentes do produto agregado. Esta dissertação insere-se nesta linha de investigação analisando a forma como as estruturas microeconómicas, tais como a forma de financiamento dos bancos e a relação entre estes e os seus clientes, interagem com as condições macroeconómicas. Este trabalho contribui para clarificar o papel do capital dos bancos e da sua regulação na propagação dos ciclos económicos, tendo em conta a presente alteração nos requisitos mínimos de capital proposta pelo Acordo de Basileia II. Após o Capítulo 1, que articula a literatura teórica sobre a relação entre o capital dos bancos e os ciclos económicos com a literatura sobre os requisitos de capital exigidos pelos Acordos de Basileia, o Capítulo 2 propõe um modelo dinâmico de equilíbrio geral no qual os bancos estão sujeitos a requisitos mínimos de capital ajustados pelo risco. Tendo em conta que a emissão de capital pelos bancos é mais onerosa do que os depósitos, devido à preferência das famílias por liquidez, e que esta diferença de custo tende a aumentar (diminuir) durante uma recessão (expansão), exploramos, neste capítulo, um canal adicional através do qual os efeitos dos choques exógenos na actividade económica são amplificados o bank capital channel. Este efeito de amplificação é mais forte quando introduzimos as regras propostas por Basileia II (por oposição a Basileia I). Para avaliar com mais exactidão os potenciais efeitos pró-cíclicos de Basileia II, integramos, no Capítulo 3, a relação entre o banco e as empresas às quais este empresta num modelo de agentes heterogéneos, de acordo com o qual as condições de acesso ao crédito por parte de cada uma dessas empresas dependem do seu risco de crédito. Este modelo permite-nos concluir que, na medida em que (i) é mais dispendioso deter capital dos bancos durante uma recessão e (ii) o portfolio do banco é caracterizado por uma fracção significativa de pequenas empresas fortemente dependentes do crédito bancário, a introdução de Basileia II acentua as tendências pró-cíclicas do sistema bancário, amplificando as flutuações dos ciclos económicos.
The role of financial frictions in the propagation of exogenous shocks in the economy has been subject of much debate in the literature and of significant implications at the institutional level. The main issue at stake is whether financial frictions are able to transform small exogenous shocks to the economy into amplified and persistent movements in aggregate output. This dissertation fits in this line of research by centering its attention on how microeconomic structures, such as the bank funding structure and the relationship between banks and borrowers, interact with macroeconomic conditions. It contributes to clarify the role of bank capital and its regulatory environment in the propagation of business cycles, taking into account the current institutional changeover from Basel I to Basel II bank capital requirements. After Chapter 1, that brings together the theoretical literature on the relationship between bank capital and the business cycle with the literature on the regulatory capital requirements under the Basel Accords, Chapter 2 proposes a dynamic general equilibrium model in which banks are constrained by a risk-based capital requirement. Taking into account that bank capital is more expensive to raise than deposits, due to households' preferences for liquidity, and that this difference tends to widen (narrow) during a recession (expansion), we explore an additional channel through which the effects of exogenous shocks on real activity are amplified - the bank capital channel. This amplification effect is larger under Basel II than under Basel I rules. To evaluate more accurately the potential procyclical effects of Basel II, we embed, in Chapter 3, the bank-borrower relationship into a heterogeneous-agent model, in which firms have different access to bank credit depending on their credit risk. We conclude that, to the extent that it is more costly to hold bank capital during recessions and that the bank's loan portfolio is characterized by a significant fraction of highly leveraged and small firms, the introduction of Basel II accentuates the procyclical tendencies of banking, amplifying business cycle fluctuations.
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Rawat, Umang. "Essays on macroeconomic dynamics, credit intermediation and financial stability." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/275970.
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This dissertation consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, we study the role of financial frictions on the demand side of the economy. In particular, we study the interaction between firm and household credit constraints over the business cycle. We construct a real business cycle model with explicit modeling of price and quantity side of housing. This allows us to include both firm and household financing frictions. The model is estimated for the U.S economy using quarterly data on key macroeconomic variables over the period 1970 - 2006. Household and firm financial accelerators operate primarily through movement in house and capital prices respectively. We find clear evidence of the operation of a financial accelerator mechanism, whereby shocks to the economy are amplified most in the presence of both types of frictions, as opposed to just firm or household frictions. Over the business cycle, total factor productivity shocks in the non-housing sector explain about half of the volatility of GDP and consumption. However, cyclical variations in housing investment and housing prices are predominantly explained by housing preference and housing technology shocks. Finally, spillovers from household financing frictions are mostly concentrated in consumption. However, they also affect business investment via its impact on the demand for capital and consequently its price. The second chapter focuses on financial frictions on the supply side. We study the role of bank capital in the transmission of shocks to the economy. Given the evolutionary change in the financial services industry and the growth of shadow banking in the decades prior to the global recession, we characterize credit intermediation with a heterogeneous banking sector comprised of traditional retail and shadow banking. We approach the shadow banking system from a regulation perspective wherein commercial banks have incentives to transfer loans from on- to off-balance sheet to gain regulatory relief. Since bank capital is costly, banks cover part of their funding needs by loan sale in the secondary market. Furthermore, these transferred loans are bundled together and converted into liquid asset backed securities. Commercial banks’ effective return is subject to their monitoring effort, which is unobservable and hence introduces a moral hazard problem in loan sale. This limits the amount of loan sold in the secondary market. We find that loan sale and securitization enhances credit intermediation in normal times and improves the resilience of the system to productivity shocks. However, it also exposes the economy to shocks emerging in the financial system. In response to financial market shocks, the government via its backstop program, can ameliorate its impact on the economy. Finally, we compare the model economy with Basel I and Basel II capital requirement and find that business cycle fluctuations are amplified under Basel II regime. Furthermore, in response to a negative productivity shock there is a transfer of loans from on to off balance sheet under Basel II rules with procyclical capital constraints. This points towards a need for countercyclical capital requirement as being implemented under Basel III accord. In the third chapter, we focus on the question of trade off between price and financial stability goals for the conduct of monetary policy. The recent crisis has generated renewed interest in Hayekian theory and Minsky’s instability hypothesis, which claims that accommodative monetary policy can be harmful for an economy by promoting excessive risk taking – the so called risk taking channel of monetary policy transmission. Risk Taking Channel has been documented for the U.S and Euro area and we investigate the presence of this in Asia. Using annual and quarterly data on publicly listed banks in Asia, we find that when interest rates are too low - lower than a benchmark - bank risk increases. Furthermore, there is also a case for greater supervision and capital stringency to alleviate risk taking.
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Holmberg, Ulf. "Essays on credit markets and banking." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-53494.
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This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to banking, credit markets and financial stability. Paper [I] presents a credit market model and finds, using an agent based modeling approach, that credit crunches have a tendency to occur; even when credit markets are almost entirely transparent in the absence of external shocks. We find evidence supporting the asset deterioration hypothesis and results that emphasize the importance of accurate firm quality estimates. In addition, we find that an increase in the debt’s time to maturity, homogenous expected default rates and a conservative lending approach, reduces the probability of a credit crunch. Thus, our results suggest some up till now partially overlooked components contributing to the financial stability of an economy. Paper [II] derives an econometric disequilibrium model for time series data. This is done by error correcting the supply of some good. The model separates between a continuously clearing market and a clearing market in the long-run such that we are able to obtain a novel test of clearing markets. We apply the model to the Swedish market for short-term business loans, and find that this market is characterized by a long-run nonmarket clearing equilibrium. Paper [III] studies the risk-return profile of centralized and decentralized banks. We address the conditions that favor a particular lending regime while acknowledging the effects on lending and returns caused by the course of the business cycle. To analyze these issues, we develop a model which incorporates two stylized facts; (i) banks in which lendingdecisions are decentralized tend to have a lower cost associated with screening potential borrowers and (ii) decentralized decision-making may generate inefficient outcomes because of lack of coordination. Simulations are used to compare the two banking regimes. Among the results, it is found that even though a bank group where decisions are decentralizedmay end up with a portfolio of loans which is (relatively) poorly diversified between regions, the ability to effectively screen potential borrowers may nevertheless give a decentralized bank a lower overall risk in the lending portfolio than when decisions are centralized. In Paper [IV], we argue that the practice used in the valuation of a portfolio of assets is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, a seller seeking to liquidate a large portfolio may not face horizontal demand curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall measures and in an empirical illustration, we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.
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Giovannini, Massimo. "Essays on credit frictions and incomplete markets." Thesis, Boston College, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/2872.
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Thesis advisor: Peter IrelandThesis advisor: Matteo Iacoviello
The dissertation is composed by two chapters. In the first one, I study the role of credit constraints and incomplete markets in the short run transmission of monetary shocks, using the superneutrality result that would obtain from preference separability in the Sidrauski model under complete markets as a benchmark. I find that money demand heterogeneity stemming from binding credit constraints invalidates the superneutrality result. I show this result under two alternative settings. In a simple two agents model, with heterogeneity in the rates of time preference, whether positive shocks to the growth rate of money are expansionary or contractionary crucially depends on the transfer scheme adopted by the monetary authority to rebate seigniorage transfers: redistributional effects implied by symmetric lump-sum transfers are contractionary, while wealth-neutral transfers are expansionary. In a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, the approximate aggregation property fails to hold due to the high degree of heterogeneity of money demand and to the properties of the cross-sectional distribution of money holdings, suggesting the inadequacy of the representative agent assumption and the need for a more elaborate approximation of the wealth distribution to predict prices. In the second chapter, we propose a real business cycle model with labor and credit market frictions in which borrowing is conditional on employment status. Relative to a conventional set up, and as long as credit is valued positively, our model generates a non-standard labor/leisure trade off that induces job applicants to accept lower wages and firms to post more vacancies, ultimately increasing employment. A shock to the demand of durable goods, by increasing the collateral value, reduce the opportunity cost of working, and generates an increase in employment and output. The transmission of a financial shock that increases the loan to value ratio, is dampened by the costs, in terms of leisure, incurred by the borrowers. We show that this mechanism is able to generate the positive comovement between outstanding household debt and employment observed in the data, whereas a conventional model, in which employment status is irrelevant for obtaining credit, predicts a counterfactual negative comovement
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Hagemann, Harald. "L. Albert Hahn's Economic Theory of Bank Credit." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2010. http://epub.wu.ac.at/2948/1/wu_wp134.pdf.
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In the mid-1920s L. Albert Hahn's Economic Theory of Bank Credit (1920) had become one of the most influential and certainly the most controversial book on monetary theory in the German language area. Hahn wanted to overcome the orthodox view that every credit has to be financed by means of savings deposited by the banks. Banks are producers of credit which is not limited by the amount of saving. Capital was seen by Hahn as the result of credit creation and not of saving. Over time Hahn moderated some exaggerations of the first two editions of The Economic Theory of Bank Credit, such as the idea of a permanent boom. The paper also compares Hahn's views on the role and effects of credit with those of Schumpeter and investigates Hahn's claim to have anticipated essential ideas of Keynes' General Theory. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Бульбах, О. О. "Оцінка кредитоспроможності підприємства." Master's thesis, Cумський державний університет, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/81870.
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Основний результат роботи полягає у тому, що проведений аналіз надав змогу з’ясувати недоліки в методиках оцінки кредитоспроможності позичальника, що використовуються різними банками, тому розроблення рекомендацій щодо покращення якості такої оцінки є обґрунтованими та підтвердженими за допомогою розрахунків.Основной результат работы состоит в том, что проведенный анализ дал возможность выяснить недостатки в методиках оценки кредитоспособности заемщика, используемые различными банками, поэтому разработка рекомендаций по улучшению качества такой оценки являются обоснованными и подтвержденными с помощью расчетов.
The main result of the work is that the analysis made it possible to identify shortcomings in the methods of assessing the borrower's creditworthiness used by different banks, so the development of recommendations to improve the quality of such assessment is justified and confirmed by calculations.
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Лакоза, М. В. "Кредитний цикл в банківській системі." Master's thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2019. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/76232.
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Основний науковий результат роботи полягає у встановленні впливу
кредитних циклів на діяльність банківської системи та у визначенні методів
усунення наслідків кредитних циклів.The main scientific result of the work is to establish influence credit cycles for banking system activities and methods eliminate the effects of credit cycles.
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Sandström, Emma. "The credibility of a journal : The notion of credit in the world of scientific publishing." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Sociologiska institutionen, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-66119.
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Lardeau, Thomas Laurent. "Equilibre du marché du crédit et cycle économique : un nouvel accélérateur financier." Thesis, Paris 13, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA131027/document.
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Avec le retour des cycles financiers et la crise des subprimes, la littérature a remis en avant l’influence macroéconomique des facteurs financiers. A partir du marché du crédit, elle s’est essentiellement développée avec la théorie de l’accélérateur financier (Bernanke et Gertler [1989], Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist [1999]) fondée sur l’hypothèse d’asymétrie d’information. Cette thèse se propose de compléter cette littérature en considérant le cas dans lequel l’offre de crédit s’exprime en situation d’incertitude radicale et de revenir sur cette théorie en proposant, à partir de certaines de ses limites, un autre mécanisme d’accélération financière qui soit de nature plus macroéconomique. Ce mécanisme permet alors d’améliorer la compréhension du rôle du marché du crédit dans l’explication des fluctuations économiques et de réinterpréter les recommandations de politique économiqueWith the renewal of financial cycles and the subprime crisis, literature had focused on the macroeconomic influence of the financial factors. From the credit market, it mainly developed along the theory of financial accelerator (Bernanke and Gertler [1989], Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist [1999]) which is based on the hypothesis of asymmetric information. This thesis gives aim to complete this literature by considering that credit supply must be also considered in radical uncertainty and to return on it by proposing, from some of its own limits, another mechanism of financial accelerator which can be viewed as more macroeconomic. So, it leads us to improve our understanding of the credit market in the explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations and to reconsider economic policy related
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Zhao, Jing. "Household debt service burden outlook an exploration on the effect of credit constraints /." Connect to this title online, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1054650767.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2003.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xii, 210 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 203-210). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center
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Kubesa, Lukáš. "Úvěrové riziko a jeho řízení v kontextu hospodářského cyklu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-9237.
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This diploma thesis -- Credit risk management and business cycle -- is divided in four chapters. The first explains the purpose of bank as the financial intermediate and the main financial risk, which may results from its activities. The second part describes the theory of business cycle from the view of the main economic schools and clears up the problems of price bubbles on assets markets. The third part analyses the models and methods of credit risk management in the financial institution and the roles of regulatory authorities including the influence of Basel II. The last part concerns about credit risk development in bank sector in the Czech Republic including the ČNB macroeconomic credit risk model. The main focus is how the changes in business cycle development influence the credit risk.
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Wen, Shen, and Wu Simin. "The Relationship between Credit Constraints and Household Risky Assets : The Case of China." Thesis, Högskolan i Jönköping, Internationella Handelshögskolan, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-36750.
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The purpose of this empirical research is to evaluate the relationship between credit constraints and household risky assets in China. The life-cycle hypothesis theory and household portfolio choice theory is the basis of the research. Using a probit model, we find out that credit constraints do not have a clear impact on the probability of households to hold risky assets. Furthermore, the coefficients between age and risky assets are non-linear. Households in urban regions have a high positive coefficient with risky assets. As for now, the literature is missing theories on the relationship between credit constraints and household financial risky assets in China. Thus, this study will enrich the literature of household financial assets allocation by using a questionnaire survey from CHFS (China Household Finance Survey).
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Lešková, Michaela. "Finančný cyklus a jeho indikátory." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264318.
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Subject of the diploma thesis is a broad analysis of financial cycles that are often behind other financial topics and their clear and precise understanding is still not sufficient, despite their high significance, and indeed a critical issue for financial stability. The paper will discuss indicators of financial cycles, we can ask ourselves how each financial cycles, meaning equity, credit and real estate prices, are synchronized with each other, but also toward the economic cycle, and what consequences this synchronization brings looking at different scenarios. The turning point in the boom phase is often triggered by the financial crisis, so we look if it is possible to predict these breaks in time. We discuss the recommended adaptations of policies to the financial cycle and in the final phase of diploma work will focus on the analysis of financial cycle in the Czech Republic.
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Jůza, Jaromír. "Souvislosti úvěrového a hospodářského cyklu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-199001.
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Excessive lending activity of banks is considered to be one of the causes of the recent financial and economic crisis. The theme of this thesis is to evaluate the relation of credit and the business cycle in the euro area countries and explore the differences which have been among these countries recorded. The primary objective of this work is the analysis of the credit cycle in these countries and its develoment from 2000 to the present. The paper will address further the question of whether financial markets can create for themselves economic imbalances through endogenous credit "booms". First part will deal with the theory off business cycles, then with alternative approaches, namely the Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman Minsky and followed by the latest theoretical knowledge on the issue of credit cycles. The next part will focus on identifying and analysing factors playing the significant role in the development of the economy in the pre-crisis period. The following section will be devoted to the international comparison of the credit and business cycles in the euro area (selection of those states that were more resistant to crisis and those sensitive to the crisis). The conclusion will address some recommendations for the policies of central banks, which may in turn reduce the pro-cyclical effects of developing leverage.
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Brianti, Marco. "Essays in Macroeconomics:." Thesis, Boston College, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:109064.
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Thesis advisor: Ryan A. ChahrourThe dissertation studies the primary sources of business-cycle fluctuations and their interaction with uncertainty and financial frictions. In my work, I examine the degree to which changes in uncertainty and financial conditions can be independent drivers of economic fluctuations; I study the sources of boom-bust cycles and whether they are linkedto credit market sentiments; and I ask how financial frictions affect economic fluctuations in terms of prices and quantities. In "Financial and Uncertainty Shocks", I separately identify financial and uncertainty shocks using a novel SVAR procedure and discuss their distinct monetary policy implications. The procedure relies on the qualitatively different responses of corporate cash holdings: after a financial shock, firms draw down their cash reserves as they lose access to external finance, while uncertainty shocks drive up cash holdings for precautionary reasons. Although both financial and uncertainty shocks are contractionary, my results show that the former are inflationary while the latter generate deflation. I rationalize this pattern in a New-Keynesian model: after a financial shock, firms increase prices to raise current liquidity; after an uncertainty shock, firms cut prices in response to falling demand. These distinct channels have stark monetary policy implications: conditional on uncertainty shocks the divine coincidence applies, while in case of financial shocks the central bank can stabilize inflation only at the cost of more unstable output fluctuations. In "What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?", joint with Vito Cormun, we provide a synthesis of two major views on economic fluctuations. One view maintains that expansions and recessions arise from the interchange of positive and negative persistent exogenous shocks to fundamentals. This is the conventional view that gave rise to the profusion of shocks used in modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In contrast, a second view, which we call the endogenous cycles view, holds that business cycle fluctuations are due to forces that are internal to the economy and that endogenously favor recurrent periods of boom followed by a bust. In this environment, cycles can occur after small perturbations of the long run equilibrium. We find empirical evidence pointing at the coexistence of both views. In particular, we find that the cyclical behaviour of economic aggregates is due in part to strong internal mechanisms that generate boom-bust phenomena in response to small changes in expectations, and in part to the interchange of positive and negative persistent fundamental shocks. Motivated by our findings, we build a theory that unifies the dominant paradigm with the endogenous cycles approach. Our theory suggests that recessions and expansions are intimately related phenomena, and that understanding the nature of an expansion, whether it is driven by fundamentals or by beliefs, is a first order issue for policy makers whose mandate is to limit the occurrance of inefficient economic fluctuations. In "COVID-19 and Credit Constraints'', joint with Pierluigi Balduzzi, Emanuele Brancati, and Fabio Schiantarelli, we investigate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the role played by credit constraints in the transmission mechanism, using a novel survey of expectations and plans of Italian firms, taken just before and after the outbreak. Most firms revise downward their expectations for sales, orders, employment, and investment, while prices are expected to increase at a faster rate, with geographical and sectoral heterogeneity in the size of the effects. Credit constraints amplify the effects on factor demand and sales of the COVID-19 generated shocks. Credit-constrained firms also expect to charge higher prices, relative to unconstrained firms. The search for and availability of liquidity is a key determinant of firms' plans. Finally, both supply and demand shocks play a role in shaping firms' expectations and plans, with supply shocks being slightly more important in the aggregate
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Kenttä, Tony. "When Belongings Secure Credit… : Pawning and Pawners in Interwar Borås." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303601.
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This dissertation deals with pawning primarily from the perspective of the pawners. It utilises two samples from the ledgers of a municipal pawnshop in Borås in western Sweden, from 1922/23 and 1932/33. Its aim is to deal with the relation between the material and financial side of pawning as well as the causes behind pawning. One of the results of the study is that most pawn loans were very small, which means that pawning probably was connected to income insufficiency. It showed that weekly repeated pawning, which has been proposed in previous research as a common pattern, was nearly non-existent. Instead, most pawners were occasional customers at the pawnshop. It was shown that certain collateral (such as clothes and decorative objects) affected the length of the redemption time. This meant that pawners had the ability to redeem a pledge quickly – if they had a need for the item. However, at the same time, pawns could remain for a long time in the pawnshop, which indicates that repaying the loan was difficult for the pawner. Otherwise, they should have acted to minimise the interest they had to pay for the loan. For the pawner the payment of the loan likely meant foregoing much needed consumption in the present. According to this study, variability of income was a more important cause for pawning than the size of income. Pawn loans likely countered short-term variation in income or expenditures. However, it could not help against long-term unemployment. The study also investigated if pawning was affected by the life cycle, but found no clear relationship. The study showed that most of the customers at the pawnshop were male, which goes against most of the previous research. Another of the study’s result was that women’s pawning, but not men’s pawning, was connected to the presence of children in the household, and women had also more children than men did. Having many children had also an effect on women’s pawning, but not on men’s. The study considers that it seems like women pawned more due to family needs than men did.
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Janíčko, Martin. "Essays on Financial Innovation, Credit Constraints, and Welfare." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-165930.
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The submitted thesis is composed of three different articles dealing with issues of financial innovation, credit constraints, and their impact on welfare. The first article treats the contemporary theoretical grasp of the interaction between the financial and real economies, focusing primarily on the role of modern financial innovation in the business cycle. For this purpose, a framework promoted by the Regulation School and Post Keynesians is frequently employed, whilst some other unorthodox streams and mainstream economics are partially discussed as well. All of them aspire -- either per se or under the pressure of the contemporary economic agenda -- to clarify the evolution of financial innovation and credit in the recent era. It is generally found that certain consensus across the schools of economic thought exists, but some of them have done a better job in predicting the consequences of the financial innovation for real economic activity than others. Further, two dynamic macroeconomic models are developed in order to, inter alia, identify the possible effects of extended credit availability presented in the former article on the example of the housing market, and simulate the effects of housing price changes on general welfare. Clearly, this part of the thesis exhibits the indirect consequences of financial innovation as, once again, being rather ambiguous: after having partially unleashed the unprecedented credit granting in the economy, impacting interest rates and loan-to-value ratios, with a subsequent impact on housing prices, it has also influenced credit constrained and unconstrained households in a different manner. Based on an analysis of the situation using partial and general equilibrium analytical frameworks, two somewhat different conclusions are drawn up with respect to the occurrence of various shocks in the models. Under the partial equilibrium framework the effects of relaxation of credit constraints are visible and quite straightforward, indicating relatively simple and intuitive relationship between the price appreciation and general welfare. This is primarily perspicuous for the credit constrained households. In the general equilibrium framework, on the other hand, the transitional dynamics of shock proliferation is more transparent and the impact on credit constrained vs. unconstrained households is more ambiguous and much different from the basic intuition used in the article anchored in the partial equilibrium toolbox.
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Conti, Antoniomaria. "Essays on Monetary Policy, Low Inflation and the Business Cycle." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/260933.
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The last ten years have been extremely challenging for both researchers in monetary economics and policymakers.The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, in spite of its size and severity, was initially widely perceived in the Euro Area (EA) as an imported and transitory crisis: it was frequently predicted that the EA economy would recover once the US and the World Economy rebounded. Instead, after a brief period of recovery, the Euro Area was hit by the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12, a domestic crisis which widened the divide already existing between core and peripheral countries up to the point of threatening a break-up of the euro. Thanks to the bold monetary policy response of the ECB this fear gradually vanished, but the sudden fall in oil price and the uncertain economic outlook led to the low inflation period, particularly severe in the EA, in which inflation, both in terms of headline and core measures, is well below the ECB target of 2%. This prompted the ECB to launch its Quantitative Easing program, at the beginning of 2015, much later than what the FED implemented to offset the impact of the 2007-09 crisis.This dissertation consists of two different but interlinked parts, which contribute to the empirical literature on monetary policy, low inflation and the business cycle. The first part is composed by Chapters I and II, and it is devoted to analyse the EA economy, both before the Global Financial Crisis and during the most recent low inflation period. The second one, composed by Chapters III and IV, focuses on the US economy to evaluate the possible negative consequences of the extraordinary monetary stimulus undertaken by the FED. In particular, we study the risks for both price and financial stability of the effects of the so called lift-off, i.e. the gradual normalization of monetary stance. In the first Chapter, we provide novel evidence on the different effects of the ECB common monetary policy on euro-area core and peripheral countries even before the eruption of the crisis.We estimate a structural dynamic factor model on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables to take into account both the comovement and the heterogeneity in the EA business cycle, and we then simulate the model to investigate the possible existence of asymmetric effects of ECB monetary policy on member states' economies. Data stop before the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis in order to only assess conventional monetary shocks, which are identified by means of sign restrictions. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country-specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.In the second Chapter we use a Bayesian VAR model to analyse the transmission of global and domestic shocks in the euro area, with a particular focus on the drivers of inflation, especiallyin the recent period labeled as low inflation. We identify several shocks by means of sign restrictions, and we account for the role of ECB unconventional monetary policies by using a shadow interest rate. We document that the recent low inflation phase was not entirely attributable to falling oil prices, but also to slack in economic activity and to insufficiently expansionary monetary policy, because of the Zero Lower Bound of interest rates. Interestingly, we show that the launch of the ECB Quantitative Easing turned the monetary stance into more accommodative, preventing deflationary outcomes. In the third Chapter we provide an empirical evaluation of the existence of a "dark side" of monetary policy, i.e. the possibility that credit spreads abruptly rise following a monetary tightening, after being compressed by an extraordinary period of monetary easing. This would create a problematic trade--off for the central bank, as temporary monetary expansions might at once stimulate the economy and sow the seeds of abrupt and costly financial market corrections in the future in terms of risks for financial stability (Stein, 2014).We investigate this possibility using data for the US by exploiting non-linear methods to examine the propagation of monetary shocks through US corporate bond markets. Across different methodologies, we find that the transmission of monetary shocks is mostly symmetric. What is asymmetric is instead the impact of macroeconomic data releases: spreads respond more to bad news. Crucially, these responses anticipate economic slowdowns rather than causing them directly.However, empirical evidence points to the possibility of larger effects of expansionary monetary shocks depending on (i) the type of non-linear estimation technique (ii) the identification of the shock and (iii) the inclusion of unconventional measures in the analysis. Finally, in the fourth Chapter, we ask whether the FED has riskily delayed the exit from its large monetary easing, increasing the probability of a future inflationary burst. We do so by means of medium and larger scale Bayesian VAR, which we use for both structural analysis, i.e. the evaluation of monetary policy shocks, and forecasting, i.e. the running of counterfactuals and scenario analysis.We show that expansionary monetary policy did not trigger a large deviation of inflation from its steady state. Furthermore, the FED monetary stance is totally in line with the concurrent macroeconomic dynamics. Last, our model predicts that US core inflation will lie well below its 2% target in 2017, a finding only recently acknowledged by the FOMC projections.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Hansson, Denise. "Housing Finance and the Transmission of Mortgage Spread Shocks." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-415538.
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Credit market frictions, captured by mortgage spreads, are potentially an equally important driver behind mortgage rate innovations as monetary policy. Possibly a significant driver of business cycles. Yet, the effect of such shocks on the economy has barely received any attention in empirical research. By estimating a SVAR for 12 EU countries, I find that mortgage spread shocks have a significant effect on GDP, consumption, residential investment and house prices. The magnitude of their effects is comparable to a monetary policy shock. I also find that the transmission mechanism of such shocks is influenced by mortgage market characteristics. A high mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio and widespread use of mortgage equity withdrawal, compared to a lower ratio and less or no use, potentially imply a stronger response in house prices and residential investment of 0.5 and 1 percent respectively.
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Hammerová, Jitka. "Problematika hypotečního úvěrování v České republice." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-4455.
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The aim of this diploma paper is to describe the mortgage market in the Czech Republic. Firstly, I have analysed the general situation which is connected with the issue of providing the mortgage credit in the Czech Republic. The next point is the analysis of market of flats and support of the flat's market. One of this product is mortgage credit. I have analysed the main economic values such as mortgage credit, mortgage interest, classified mortgage credit, business cycle, etc. Especially I discussed the household sector because we can see the biggest growth there. Finally, I have compared the mortgage market in the Czech Republic, in the European Union and in the United States of America. The mortgage crisis in the USA is an ongoing economic problem and it caused a global financial crisis during 2007 -- 2008.
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Kábelková, Lenka. "Souvislosti hospodářského cyklu a vývoje na trhu s hypotéčními úvěry." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-113683.
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The diploma thesis deals with the connection between the economy cycle and the development on the mortgage credit market since 2000 until 2010. Mainly it focuses on the problematic of the effectiveness of the currency policy and on the analysis of the main determinants, which leads to the mortgage crisis. The aim of the thesis is to assess the determinants of the credit cycle and their connection with the development of the economy cycle. The main indicator that influence the credit cycle will be analyzed. On the basis of the gained information I will answer the question whether there should exist some strategy of the state in the field of accommodation and whether the currency policy should be controlled according to same rules or rather discretionally. As for the methodology, the descriptive method, the comparative analysis, the trend line and the technique of the deviations from the trend will be applied.
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Mendicino, Caterina. "Financial market imperfections, business cycle fluctuations and economic growth." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute (EFI), Stockholm School of Economics, 2006. http://www2.hhs.se/EFI/summary/705.htm.
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Ninou, Bozou Caroline. "Aversion au risque et concurrence bancaire : disponibilité des crédits et cycle économique." Thesis, Paris 2, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA020052.
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Dans cette thèse, nous nous concentrons sur deux déterminants de la disponibilité du crédit et plus largement, du cycle des affaires : la structure du marché bancaire et les préférences des agents à l’égard du risque et du temps. Dans un premier chapitre, nous démontrons une relation empirique négative entre la concentration du marché bancaire et la disponibilité des crédits aux entreprises. Nous montrons également que l’ampleur de cette relation dépend des caractéristiques des firmes et des banques. Dans un second chapitre, théorique, nous comparons, dans le cadre d’un modèle d’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique (DSGE) non linéaire, différentes structures du marché bancaire et analysons leurs effets respectifs sur la stabilité financière et sur le bien-être des ménages. Un marché bancaire oligopolistique avec une forte concentration atténue la transmission des chocs financiers et améliore le bien-être des ménages par rapport aux autres structures de marché. Enfin, dans un dernier chapitre nous analysons, via un modèle DSGE non linéaire, l’effet d’une augmentation de l’aversion au risque des agents sur la transmission des chocs économiques. En outre, en considérant la variabilité temporelle du paramètre d’aversion au risque, nous analysons les mécanismes de transmission d’un choc d’aversion à l’ensemble de l’économieIn this thesis, we focus on two determinants of credit availability and more broadly, the business cycle: banking market structure, and risk and time preferences. First, in an empirical chapter, we demonstrate a negative relationship between the concentration of the banking sector and the availability of credit. We also show that this relationship depends on the specific characteristics of firms and banks. Secondly, in a theoretical chapter, we compare, in the framework of a nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, different banking market structures and we analyse their respective impact on the business cycle and households’ welfare. We find that a concentrated oligopolistic structure mitigates the transmission mechanism of financial shocks and improves the households’ welfare compared to other market structures. In the final chapter, we analyse, through a nonlinear DSGE model, the impact of an increase in the degree of risk aversion on the transmission mechanisms of economic shocks. Moreover, considering the time-varying nature of risk aversion, we evaluate the transmission mechanisms of risk aversion shocks to the whole economy
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Řídký, Jan. "Řízení a regulace úvěrového rizika a jejich vliv na hospodářství USA v období od 80. let minulého století do současnosti." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-136332.
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This thesis describes an impact of credit risk management and credit risk regulation on the volume and quality of credits. Consequently there is an influence on economic activity of people and companies, price level and business cycle. In the thesis the basic principles of credit risk management and regulations are described. The volume of granted credit determines the probability of default. If there is an option to transfer a credit risk to the third party, volume of granted credits increases. The volume of credit depends also on the regulatory duty to hold an adequate amount of capital. In the case the banks find the way to diminish this regulatory capital, the volume of credit increases. Credit activity of banks boosts economic activity of people and companies and it has an impact on the price level. The option of credit risk transfer to the third party together with high saturation of credit market leads to taking higher risk by lenders. At the end it has an impact on the business cycle.
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Kavalírek, Jan. "Role bankovních úvěrů nefinančním podnikům v hospodářském cyklu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-360161.
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The theoretical part of the thesis introduces Austrian theory of business cycles and analyses equilibrium of savings and investments together with the transmission mechanism between savings, deposits, loans and investments. The practical part of the thesis explores business cycle and credit cycle. It analyses an excessive loan expansion of commercial banks together with a excessively expansive policy of central bank. The thesis deals with a procyclical action of commercial banks and contemporary tools of central bank with their limited effectiveness. Furthermore, the thesis analyses the possible adjustments of monetary policy with the emphasis on the macroprudential policy and its individual credit indicators. The end of the thesis deals with the method of credit rationing and with the imbalance between demand and supply at the credit market of non-financial corporations, which is modelled using the technique of disequilibrium model.
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Binderová, Anna. "Analýza makroekonomických dopadů zadluženosti českých domácností." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-15734.
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The thesis analyses the rapid growth of indebtedness of Czech households, which have created concerns both among economists and general public. The thesis is aimed not only on development of indebtedness but also on causes of recent developments and structure of indebtedness. The thesis also deals with household savings, which are opposite of debts and according to neoclassical theory are the bottom line of economic growth. Main part of the thesis closely examines impacts of indebtedness upon Czech economy. It tries to describe and assess these impacts using economic theories, which are described in theoretical part of the thesis. International comparisons are an integral part of analysis, without them the analysis would be incomplete. The thesis uses up-to-date statistical data and widely used measures of indebtedness.
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Sobolčik, Lukáš. "Řízení kreditního rizika." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-360192.
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The goal of the Master`s thesis is the credit risk analysis of existing corporation done from the point of view of a fictitious multinational corporation which operates in petrochemical business. At first, it deals with general definition of credit risk, tools for its management and methods for its elimination. Later, in the analytical section on an example of concrete model from practice modern trends in credit risk management are demonstrated, potential obstacles are analyzed and the most frequent problems with its application are noted. The main asset of the thesis is a comprehensive introduction of actual credit risk management system supplemented with own observations and experience. The outcome is an educational material for people with interest in given topic as well as for professionals in the field of credit risk management.
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Ahlqvist, Sigge, and Matteus Arriaza-Hult. "How to measure the degree of PIT-ness in a credit rating system for a low default portfolio?" Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273632.
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In order to be compliant with the Basel regulations, banks need to compute two probabilities of default (PDs): point-in-time (PIT) and through-the-cycle (TTC). The aim is to explain fluctuations in the rating system, which are expected to be affected by systematic and idiosyncratic factors. Being able to, in an objective manner, determine whether the rating system is taking the business cycle - i.e the systematic factors - into account when assigning a credit rating to an obligor is useful in order to evaluate PD-models. It is also necessary for banks in order to use their own risk parameters and models instead of standardized models, which is desirable for most banks as it could lower capital requirements. This thesis propose a new measure for the degree of PIT-ness. This measure aims to be especially useful when examining a low default portfolio. The proposed measure is built on a markovian approach of the credit rating system. In order to find a suitable measure for a low default portfolio, the proposed measure takes into account credit rating migrations, the seasonal component of the business cycle and time series analysis. An analysis were performed between two different credit portfolios in order to interpret results. The results demonstrated that the degree of PIT-ness was lower in a low default portfolio in comparison with a sampled portfolio which displayed a greater amount of rating migrations with a larger magnitude. The importance of considering relevant macroeconomic variables to represent the business cycle was mentioned amongst the most important factors to consider in order to receive reliable results given the proposed measure.För att uppfylla Basel regelverken behöver banker beräkna två sannolikheter för fallissemang (PD): point-in-time (PIT) och through-the-cycle (TTC). Målet är att förklara fluktuationer i betygssystemet, som förväntas påverkas av systematiska och idiosynkratiska faktorer. Att på ett objektivt sätt kunna avgöra om betygssystemet tar hänsyn till affärscykeln - dvs de systematiska faktorerna - när man tilldelar en kredittagare ett kreditbetyg är användbart för att utvärdera PD-modeller. Detta är också nödvändigt för att banker ska få använda sina egna riskparametrar och modeller istället för standardiserade modeller, vilket är önskvärt för de flesta banker eftersom det kan sänka kapitalkraven. Denna avhandling föreslår ett nytt mått för att mäta graden av PIT-ness. Detta mått syftar till att vara särskilt användbart när man utvärderar en kreditportfölj med få fallissemang. Det föreslagna måttet är byggt på en Markov tillämpning på kreditbetygssystemet. För att hitta ett lämpligt mått för en kreditportfölj med få fallissemang, tar det föreslagna måttet hänsyn till kreditbetygsmigrationer, säsongskomponenten i affärscykeln och tidsserieanalys. En analys utfördes mellan två olika kreditportföljer för att tolka resultaten. Resultaten visade att graden av PIT-ness var lägre i en kreditportfölj med få fallissemang jämfört med en testportfölj som uppvisade en större mängd kreditbetygsmigrationer med en större magnitud. Vikten av att beakta relevanta makroekonomiska variabler för att representera affärscykeln nämndes bland de viktigaste faktorerna att beakta för att få tillförlitliga resultat givet det föreslagna måttet.
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Borsi, Mihály Tamás. "Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Universidad de Alicante, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10045/51005.
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Eriksson, Julia, and Julia Jordeby. "Today's Credit Market - How to Avoid a House of Cards? : Austrian Full Reserves and the Chicago Plan as Alternatives to the Current Fractional Reserves." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Nationalekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-33700.
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Today’s household debt consists for the most part of credit money, and this general phenomenon does not only occur in Sweden. Money in the economy is mostly created by private banks, as much as 97 percent of the money in the United States, while central banks only create a very small share of all money. This is the reason for the oppressed household debt. During this period of high debt in Sweden, the household consumption has also increased in comparison to earlier years. The aim is to study and compare how the money supply in two different full-reserve systems, the Austrian through convertibility and the Chicago plan through quantity control, would reduce the household debt in relation to today’s fractional system. The method used in this study is a time series analysis where data of Sweden’s household debt, savings, money supply; M1 and M3, GDP, assets, currency reserves, gold reserves and interest rates has been collected for the years 2005-2013. These are further examined in three different equations. The data for all the variables was collected from SCB, IMF, Ekonomifakta and the World Data Bank. The first theory that is used in this study is Wicksell’s cumulative process which will explain how the money supply M3 affects household debt in today's fractional reserve system. The second theory is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory which will examine the money supply M1 effect on household debt through full reserves by convertibility control. The third theory is the Friedman rule, where the effect of household debt by money supply M1 will be examined. This rule explains how the Chicago Plan is affecting household debt through a full reserve system by quantity control. In the both systems, fractional reserves and full reserves, the debt will increase in this study. The result shows that with full reserves, the household debt would be backed by savings in comparison to fractional reserves, where household debt would be backed by credit money. Therefore, full reserves would contribute to a healthier economy in contrast to today’s fractional system. Since it would involve a large cost for Sweden to transcend to an Austrian system through convertibility, where price inertia would occur as well, the conclusion of this study is that the Chicago Plan, based on the quantity principle, is to prefer.Största delen av hushållens skuldsättning består idag av kreditpengar, och detta generella fenomen finns inte bara i Sverige. Pengarna i ekonomin är för det mesta skapade av affärsbankerna, så mycket som 97 procent i USA, medan centralbanken endast skapar en liten del av dessa pengar. Detta är anledningen till de höga hushållsskulderna. Under den här perioden av hög skuldsättning i Sverige så har även hushållens konsumtion ökat i förhållande till tidigare år. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra hur penningmängden i två olika hundraprocentiga reservsystem, den österrikiska konjunkturcykeln, genom konvertibilitet, och Chicago planen, genom kvantitetskontroll, skulle reducera hushållens skulder i relation till dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Metoden som används i denna studie är en tidsserieanalys där data från hushållens skulder, sparande, penningmängd; M1 och M3, BNP, tillgångar, guldreserver, valutareserver och repo räntan har samlats in under åren 2005-2013. Dessa variabler är studerade i tre olika ekvationer och all data har samlats in från SCB; IMF, Ekonomifakta och the World Data Bank. Den första teorin som används är Wicksells kumulativa process som beskriver hur penningmängden M3 påverkar hushållens skulder i dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Den andra teorin är den österrikiska konjunkturcykel teorin och kommer att undersöka penningmängden M1 effekt på hushållens skulder med ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med konvertibilitetskontroll. Den tredje teorin är Friedmans regel, där effekten på hushållens skulder kommer att bli undersökt med hjälp av penningmängden M1. Denna regel förklarar hur Chicagoplanen påverkar hushållens skulder via ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med kvantitetskontroll. Hushållens skuldsättning ökade i samtliga regressioner och resultaten visar att med hundraprocentiga reserver så skulle hushållens skulder vara backade med sparande, jämfört med bråkdelsreserver, där hushållens skulder skulle vara backade med krediter. Därför skulle hundraprocentiga reserver bidra till en mer välmående ekonomi. Eftersom det skulle tillkomma höga kostnader att övergå till ett österrikiskt system med konvertibilitet, så är slutsatsen av denna studie att istället implementera Chicagoplanen baserad på kvantitetsprincipen.
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Ніколаєва, К. В. "Макропруденційне регулювання кредитної діяльності банку." Thesis, Одеський національний економічний університет, 2020. http://dspace.oneu.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/12358.
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У роботі розглядаються теоретичні аспекти поняття системного ризику, його
основних джерел, зокрема проблем банківського кредитування, поняття
макропруденційної політики, кредитних інструментів макропруденційного
регулювання, що застосовуються залежно від фази економічного циклу.
Проаналізовано та оцінено вплив основних джерел виникнення системного
ризику банківського сектору України за основними індикаторами фінансової
стабільності. Доведено вплив кредитного циклу на економічний. Проаналізовано
вплив окремих факторів на зміну рівня простроченої заборгованості за кредитним
портфелем України, як основного джерела кредитного ризику.
Запропоновано ключові напрямки макропруденційного регулювання
кредитної діяльності банківського сектора економіки України, комплекс
інструментів для ефективного регулювання та контролю.Thesis deals with theoretical aspects of systemic risk, its main sources, in particular the problems of bank lending, the concept of macroprudential policy, credit instruments of macroprudential regulation, which are used depending on the phase of the economic cycle Author analysis and influence of the main sources of systemic risk of the banking sector of Ukraine on the main indicators of financial stability is assessed. The influence of the credit cycle on the economic one is proved. The influence of certain factors on the change in the level of overdue debt on the loan portfolio of Ukraine as the main source of credit risk is analyzed.
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Nam, Min-Ho. "Essays on housing and monetary policy." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3681.
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This thesis, motivated by my reflections about the failings of monetary policy implementation as a cause of the sub-prime crisis, attempts to answer the following inquiries: (i) whether interest rates have played a major role in generating the house price fluctuations in the U.S., (ii) what are the effects of accommodative monetary policy on the economy given banks' excessive risk-taking, and (iii) whether an optimal monetary policy rule can be found for curbing credit-driven economic volatilities in the model economy with unconventional transmission channels operating. By using a decomposition technique and regression analysis, it can be shown that short-term interest rates exert the most potent influence on the evolution of the volatile components of housing prices. One possible explanation for this is that low policy rates for a prolonged period tend to encourage bankers to take on more risk in lending. This transmission channel, labelled as the risk-taking channel, accounts for the gap to some extent between the forecast and the actual impact of monetary policy on the housing market and the overall economy. A looser monetary policy stance can also shift the preference of economic agents toward housing as theoretically and empirically corroborated in the context of choice between durable and nondurable goods. This transmission route is termed the preference channel. If these two channels are operative in the economy, policy makers need to react aggressively to rapid credit growth in order to stabilize the paths of housing prices and output. These findings provide meaningful implications for monetary policy implementation. First of all, central bankers should strive to identify in a timely fashion newly emerging and state-dependent transmission channels of monetary policy, and accurately assess the impact of policy decisions transmitted through these channels. Secondly, the intervention of central banks in the credit or housing market by adjusting policy rates can be optimal, relative to inaction, in circumstances where banks' risk-taking and the preference for housing are overly exuberant.
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Daudignon, Sandra. "Three essays in monetary and financial economics." Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA01E063.
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Le premier chapitre analyse l'impact de la compensation centrale des swaps, obligatoire depuis 2013, sur l'activité de dérivés des banques américaines. Une partie des banques traitées, c'est-à-dire des banques qui ne sont pas éligibles à la « end-user exception », réallouent leur portefeuille en substituant les options de taux d'intérêt OTC aux swaps de taux d'intérêt OTC. Cela suggère que ces banques pourraient se livrer à un arbitrage réglementaire. Le deuxième chapitre incorpore un taux d'intérêt naturel avec tendance stochastique dans un modèle nouveau keynésien et étudie comment cela modifie la politique monétaire optimale. Il montre que des augmentations systématiques du taux d'inflation optimal se justifient en réponse à des chocs négatifs sur le niveau de long terme du taux naturel, une fois que celui-ci passe en dessous de 1 \%. Néanmoins, une règle qui cible un niveau des prix constant continue de fournir une bonne approximation de la politique optimale, tant que le niveau de long terme du taux naturel reste positif. Le troisième chapitre étudie le lien entre l'incertitude microéconomique, définie comme la dispersion des niveaux de productivité idiosyncratique, et l'allocation du crédit entre les firmes. Il analyse l'équilibre d'un marché de la dette garantie où les banques et les investisseurs financiers interagissent en présence de sélection adverse et signalement. Le modèle prédit qu'une augmentation de l'incertitude micro peut générer un changement du régime d'information et se traduire par une contraction du crédit. Dans ce cas, une forte incertitude micro rétablit l'allocation optimale, car les banques ne financent que des projets de bonne qualitéThe first chapter analyses the impact of the central clearing requirement for swaps, which entered into force in 2013, on the derivatives activity of US banks. Part of treated banks, ie banks that are not eligible to the "end-user exception", reallocate their portfolio by substituting OTC interest rate swaps (regulated products) for OTC interest rate options (unregulated products). This suggests that these banks might engage in regulatory arbitrage. The second chapter allows for an integrated natural rate of interest in a new Keynesian mode! and studies its implications for optimal monetary policy under commitment. It shows that systematic increases in the optimal rate of inflation become warranted in response to downward shocks to the long-run natural rate, once this drifts below 1%. Nevertheless a constant price level targeting rule of the form put forward in Eggertsson and Woodford (2003) continues providing a good approximation to optimal commitment, as long as the long-run natural rate remains in positive territory. The third chapter investigates the link between micro-uncertainty, defined as the cross sectional dispersion of firms' idiosyncratic productivity, and the allocation of credit across firms. It analyses the equilibrium of a collateralized debt market where banks and financial investors internet in presence of adverse selection and signaling. The mode) predicts that a jump in micro uncertainty may generate a change of the information regime which may translate into a credit crunch. In this case, a high micro uncertainty restores the efficient allocation of credit as banks finance only high quality projects
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Lilja, Kristina. "Marknad och hushåll : Sparande och krediter i Falun 1820-1910 utifrån ett livscykelperspektiv." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Economic History, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-4630.
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The primary aim of this thesis has been to analyse the transformation of the Swedish capital market from a household perspective. The investigation shows that the transition from a mostly private credit market to a more institutionalised credit market took place at the end of the nineteenth century. At this time there were several actors in the credit market that were able to fulfil the diverse needs of credit that different households might have. This need was very much correlated to the household’s particular stage in its life-cycle. In accordance with the life-cycle theory and the permanent income hypothesis, households displayed a savings and consumption pattern that was dependent on income and the burden of expenditure. Households also seemed to have particular difficulty meeting expenditures, so-called life-cycle squeezes, when the household was first started, when the household size was at its peak and when the head of family reached old age, which coincided with a declining capacity to work. The investigation also shows that household savings were meant for old age. Contrary to the assumption made in life-cycle theory, households seemed to intend to provide heirs with an inheritance. This finding is more in keeping with the permanent income hypothesis, which states that households were expected to maintain their assets intact over the course of a life-time.
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Ben, Mohamed Imen. "Credit market imperfections and business cycles." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010002/document.
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La crise financière de 2009 a ravivé le débat entre les classiques et les keynésiens concernant le rôle de la finance dans le cycle d’affaire. Cette thèse étudie les conséquences macroéconomiques des imperfections du marché de crédit ainsi que quantifie leur impact sur le marché de travail. L’interaction entre chômage et frictions financière passe par l’hypothèse que les postes vacants sont financés par des fonds externes qui sont plus couteux qu’un financement interne, de par de l’impact de l’asymétrie d’information sur le marché du crédit. Il est alors montré, à l’aide de simulation d’un modèle DSGE calibré sur données US., qu’un choc financier négatif, i.e. un choc qui augmente la prime de risque sur le marché du crédit ou un choc qui détériore le bilan des entrepreneurs, réduit de manière significative les capacités d’emprunt, et, par conséquent, la création d’emplois diminue spécialement. En outre, un choc d'incertitude engendre une augmentation du taux de chômage et rend cette augmentation plus persistante en période de crise. Ce résultat est confirmé par une évidence empirique qui consistait à estimer un modèle VAR bayésien, où des variables de marché de travail réelles et financièresThe crisis of 2009 raised the question whether the financial conditions matter for the business cycles and the propagation of shocks originating in the financial sphere. I tried to drive a fine analysis of this issue using micro-founded general equilibrium models. The modelling choice was backed by empirical motivations. In three essays, i study the impact of monetary and financial shocks on growth and labour market dynamics. First, an expansionary monetary policy eases credit conditions, raises risk tolerance and the quality of borrowers and generates a liquidity effect. The potency of the monetary policy and the size of the credit channel depend considerably on the degree of financial frictions in the credit market. Second, a restrictive monetary policy shock, an positive credit shock and a positive uncertainty shocks have similar effects on the economy: they plunge the economy in a recession, with output, job creations, and hours worked decreasing, while unemployment and job destructions increase. In all cases the interest rate spread increase, therefore indicating that financial conditions deteriorate, which is interpreted as a sign that financial frictions play a critical role in the propagation of these shocks. Third, the interaction between financial and labour market frictions does exist. The interplay between the two indeed plays a role in propagating the shocks. A shock to net worth, a credit shock and an uncertainty shock play a non-trivial role for the dynamics on the labour market
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Tůma, Aleš. "Měnové příčiny hospodářského cyklu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-10550.
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This thesis deals with the monetary theory of business cycles as presented by the so called Austrian school of economics. It analyzes the different economic effects of investments financed by saving as opposed to investments financed by credit expansion. It shows that in the latter case an unsustainable situation results in which economic actors try both to invest and to consume more at the same time, which is physically impossible. The result is recession and liquidation of malinvestments made during the boom. The thesis also provides an answer to critiques of the Austrian business cycle theory by proponents of the rational expectations hypothesis. Furthermore, a critique of traditional national income accounting measures, namely GDP, is put forward. These measures fail to adequately show the described cyclical changes in the economy's productive structure, e.g. the artificial boom and subsequent correction. Gross domestic revenue (GDR) is proposed as an alternative measure that adds the expenditure on intermediate products back to GDP. In the last part of the thesis GDR is calculated for the Czech economy.
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Zivanovic, Jelena. "Essays on Credit Markets and Business Cycles." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19356.
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Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Rolle der Unternehmenskreditfinanzierung für die Realwirtschaft. Im ersten Teil untersuche ich die Entwicklung der externen Finanzierungsprämien in den USA in Folge von ökonomischen Schocks und finde, dass die Prämie antizyklisch auf Angebots- und monetäre Schocks reagiert. Im zweiten Teil analysiere ich mit Hilfe eines DSGE-Modells, wie die Zusammenfassung aus Bankkreditfinanzierung und Anleihefinanzierung die Transmission von ökonomischen Schocks beeinflusst. Angenommen, dass große Unternehmen größtenteils Anleihenmärkte verwenden und kleine Unternehmen auf Bankkredite angewiesen sind, zeigt das Modell, dass die Zusammensetzung des Unternehmenskreditfinanzierung relevant für die Verbreitung von Schocks ist. Negative monetäre Schocks und Finanzschocks beeinträchtigen die Kreditvergabe von fragilen Banken, die in Folge die Bankkredite an kleine Unternehmen kürzen. Unternehmen, die auf Anleihenfinanzierung zurückgreifen können, können sich in Zeiten steigender Prämien über Unternehmensanleihen refinanzieren. Daher reduzieren diese Unternehmen nicht in so starken Ausmaß ihre Investitionen wie kleine Firmen. Als Folge davon, ist eine Volkswirtschaft, die nur auf Bankkredite angewiesen ist, stärker von Schocks betroffen als eine Volkswirtschaft mit sowohl Bank- als auch Anleihenfinanzierung. Abschließend wird das Modell verwendet, um eine Kombination konventioneller und unkoventioneller Geldpolitik sowie makroprudentieller Politik in einer Ökonomie mit segmentierten Kreditmärkten zu evaluieren. Es wird gezeigt, dass der optimale Politikmix die höchsten Wohlfahrtsgewinne in Folge von Finanzschocks erreicht.This thesis examines the role of corporate debt financing for the real economy. First, I study the conditional dynamics of the external finance premium using US data and find that the premium is countercyclical following supply and monetary policy shocks. Second, I analyze to which extent bank and bond financing affect the transmission of economic shocks in the context of a DSGE model. To the extent that large firms predominantly use capital market finance, whereas small firms rely on bank loans, the model predicts that the composition of corporate debt is relevant for the propagation of shocks. Contractionary monetary policy and financial shocks impair the ability of leveraged banks to provide loans, which adversely affects small firms. Bond financing dependent firms can nevertheless issue bonds in times of rising bond finance premia. These firms do not reduce their investments as strongly as bank financing dependent firms. As a consequence, the economy that relies only on bank credit is affected more by shocks than the economy with bank and bond finance. Finally, the model is used to evaluate the optimal mix of conventional, unconventional and macroprudential policies for segmented credit markets. I find that the optimal policy mix attains the highest welfare gains following financial shocks.
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Jo, In Hwan. "Essays on Business Cycles with Credit Shocks." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429292314.
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Ghiaie, Hamed. "Essais sur l’Économie Financière et la Modélisation des Politiques Économiques." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018CERG0965/document.
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L'économie moderne complexifiée, qui résulte d'une société humaine hétérogène, oblige les économistes et les décideurs à élaborer des modèles économiques complexes. Outre cette complexité, les politiques économiques varient d’un pays à l’autre.Cette thèse aborde ces complexités des économies modernes.Dans les trois premiers chapitres de cette thèse, j'améliore les théories existentes pour évaluer le rôle des agents intermédiaires financiers, des marchés d'immobilier et du crédit dans l'économie, en utilisant des modèles d’Équilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique (EGDS). Les données de trois périodes de l’économie américaine, y compris le climat économique avant la Grande Récession, l’effondrement systémique de 2008 et les politiques budgétaires après la crise, sont imputés aux modèles. Les modèles EGDS ont souvent été critiqués pour leur trop grande simplification des marchés financières.J'ai inclus les frictions financières des différents côtés de l'économie pour résoudre les échecs des modèles précédents.Les résultats des simulations indiquent que l'introduction de ces nouvelles caractéristiques dans l'économie révèle de nouveaux canaux et mécanismes qui sont négligés dans les modèles simples. Par conséquent, mon modèle donne un moyen plus précis de prévoir les mouvements économiques. En outre, cette thèse documente l’importance des réglementations des politiques macroprudentielles dans la stabilité financière, la durabilité et le bien-être. Enfin, dans les deux derniers chapitres de ma thèse, j’aborde l’étude des marchés avancés et je me concentre sur les économies en développement.Ces chapitres construisent de nouveaux modèles et abordent diverses questions économiques relatives à l'économie financière, publique et du travail dans les pays en développement, à travers le prisme des modèles EGD à agents hétérogènes.J'examine les impacts des chocs réels, monétaires, fiscaux et pétroliers sur l'environnement économique des pays en développement. Je propose ensuite des recommandations de politique économiquesThe modern economy, which is a result of intricate human society, compels economists and policy makers to build complex economic models. In addition to this complexity, each country requires its own economic policies. This thesis addresses these intricacies of modern economies. In the first three chapters of this thesis, I improve the current literature to assess the role of financial intermediary agents, housing and credit markets in the economy, using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Data from three periods in the US economy, including the economic climate before the Great Rescission, the systemic collapse in 2008, and post-crisis fiscal policies, are imputed into the models. Simple DSGE models havebeen criticized for not placing more emphasis on financial frictions. Here, I have included financial frictions on different sides of economy to resolve the failures of previous models.The results of simulations indicate that introducing these features to the economy reveals new channels and mechanisms which are neglected in simple models. As a result, my model gives a more accurate means to forecast economic movements. In addition, this thesis documents the significance of macroprudential policy regulations in financial stability, sustainability and welfare. Lastly, in the final two chapters of my thesis, I move away from the study of advanced markets and focus on developing economies. These chapters build new models and address a variety of economic questions pertaining to financial, public and labor economics in developing countries, through the lens of multi-agent dynamic general equilibrium models. I examine the impacts of real, monetary, fiscal and oil price shocks on the economic environment of developing countries. I then propose appropriate policy recommendations
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Morozumi, Atsuyoshi. "Credit market imperfections, nominal rigidities, and business cycles." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2009. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3178/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis is a theoretical study of the role of credit market imperfections in business cycle dynamics. In particular, Chapters 2 to 4 focus on the credit channel of the monetary transmission mechanism, while Chapter 5 studies the role of shocks to credit markets in generating business cycle dynamics. The common framework used throughout the thesis is a New Keynesian (NK) framework characterised by imperfect competition and staggered pricesetting. The essence of the credit channel of monetary transmission is endogenous movements in the external finance premium, which, in turn, are caused by endogenous movements of agency costs generated in the presence of credit frictions. The credit channel works to complement the interest rate channel inherent to the standard NK model. Chapter 2 aims to shed light on the workings of the credit channel by presenting an analytical solution for the simpli
ed case where agency costs are modelled acyclical. I show that when acyclical agency costs are incorporated into an otherwise standard NK model, they amplify the real impact of money shocks but reduce the persistence of the real effects. This happens because credit frictions flatten both aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) relations of the model, where the former is essentially the New Keynesian Phillips curve while the latter is derived from the consumption Euler equation and money market equilibrium condition. Chapter 3 replaces the assumption of economy-wide input markets made in Chapter 2 with the one of segmented input markets. The reason for doing this is twofold. First, the latter assumption seems to capture the reality better. Second, the previous literature shows that the segmented market assumption is a crucial determinant for the degree of the persistence of the real effects of money shocks. I show that for given agency costs, both the real impact of money shocks and the persistence of the real effects are much greater in a model with the segmented input market assumption. This happens because the new assumption greatly flattens the AS curve. Chapter 4 directly studies the workings of the endogenous agency costs. Focusing on credit frictions in borrowing by firms (entrepreneurs), it compares the different business cycle dynamics generated by two alternative modelling strategies. The first assumes that entrepreneurs make a consumption/saving decision to maximise their intertemporal utility, but have a higher discount rate than households (original lenders). The second assumes that a constant fraction of entrepreneurs die each period and they consume all the accumulated wealth just before their death. These assumptions are widely used in the literature to keep agency costs operative. I show that the choice of the modelling strategies is key to the way the credit channel operates within the NK framework. Chapter 5 investigates the effect of shocks to credit markets on business cycle dynamics. Using the framework developed in Chapter 2, I show that shocks to credit markets affect agency costs and thus the external finance premium faced by entrepreneurs (borrowers). In turn, this causes a change in output. Then, turning to the framework developed in Chapter 4 with endogenous agency costs, I highlight that there is a feedback effect from macroeconomic conditions to the premium through endogenous developments in entrepreneurs' net worth. The change in the premium caused by the feedback effect leads to the further change in output.