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Journal articles on the topic 'Credibility theory (Insurance)'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 3 February 2022

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1

Gong, Yikai, Zhuangdi Li, Maria Milazzo, Kristen Moore, and Matthew Provencher. "Credibility Methods for Individual Life Insurance." Risks 6, no. 4 (December 11, 2018): 144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks6040144.

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Credibility theory is used widely in group health and casualty insurance. However, it is generally not used in individual life and annuity business. With the introduction of principle-based reserving (PBR), which relies more heavily on company-specific experience, credibility theory is becoming increasingly important for life actuaries. In this paper, we review the two most commonly used credibility methods: limited fluctuation and greatest accuracy (Bühlmann) credibility. We apply the limited fluctuation method to M Financial Group’s experience data and describe some general qualitative observations. In addition, we use simulation to generate a universe of data and compute Limited Fluctuation and greatest accuracy credibility factors for actual-to-expected (A/E) mortality ratios. We also compare the two credibility factors to an intuitive benchmark credibility measure. We see that for our simulated data set, the limited fluctuation factors are significantly lower than the greatest accuracy factors, particularly for low numbers of claims. Thus, the limited fluctuation method may understate the credibility for companies with favorable mortality experience. The greatest accuracy method has a stronger mathematical foundation, but it generally cannot be applied in practice because of data constraints. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) recognizes and is addressing the need for life insurance experience data in support of PBR—this is an area of current work.
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2

Ralević, Nebojša. "Construction of c-credibility measure and application in insurance." Tokovi osiguranja 36, no. 4 (2020): 7–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/tokosig2002007r.

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Credibility theory provides a tool for modelling various phenomena in insurance. Changes in life circumstances such as the pandemic and its consequences require adjustment of old and creation of new theories that would improve existing parameters in modelling phenomena in insurance and actuarial analysis. Thus, by using c-credibility measure, we try to respond to some of the challenges that have emerged. The paper presents a summarised theory of c-credibility and gives an algorithm for constructing c-credibility measure, which is illustrated by an example.
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3

Lai, Tze Leung. "Credit Portfolios, Credibility Theory, and Dynamic Empirical Bayes." ISRN Probability and Statistics 2012 (December 23, 2012): 1–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5402/2012/832175.

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We begin with a review of (a) the pricing theory of multiname credit derivatives to hedge the credit risk of a portfolio of corporate bonds and (b) current approaches to modeling correlated default intensities. We then consider pricing of insurance contracts using credibility theory in actuarial science. After a brief discussion of the similarities and differences of both pricing theories, we propose a new unified approach, which uses recent advances in dynamic empirical Bayes modeling, to evolutionary credibility in insurance rate-making and default modeling of credit portfolios.
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4

Elsayed, Mahmoud, and Amr Soliman. "Bühlmann & Bühlmann-Straub Credibility for Extreme Claims Applied on Non-Life Egyptian Insurance Market: An Actuarial Approach." Journal of Business and Economics 10, no. 10 (October 22, 2019): 992–1002. http://dx.doi.org/10.15341/jbe(2155-7950)/10.10.2019/.

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Credibility theory is an actuarial approach used to calculate the short term insurance premiums. The aim of this article is to calculate the credibility premium based on real data from non-life Egyptian insurance industry during 10 years period (2006 to 2015), taking into consideration the amount of incurred claims from six insurance branches and the number of extreme losses in each branch. The analysis was based on the assumptions of Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub credibility models in order to estimate the net credible premium for the upcoming year as a linear function of the prior claims and the number of extreme events.
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5

Susanti, Dwi, and Sokono Sukono. "Calculating Premium Credibility Using the Buhlmann-Straub Modelwith Nonparametric Assessment." International Journal of Global Operations Research 1, no. 1 (February 4, 2020): 20–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.47194/ijgor.v1i1.15.

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When an insurance company calculates the premium it will divides the policy holders into groups. The division is considered based on risk level in each group. The problem is then to devise a way of combining the experience risk of the group with the experience of the individual risk to calculate the premium, so then Credibility Theory provides a solution to this problem.This script discuss about calculation of credibility premium use Buhlmann-Straub Model with nonparametric estimation to the aggregate claim amount data set within few years observation in some group of policy holders in general insurance. By using credibility theory we can calculate the value of credibility factor and credibility premium or future premium. The value of premium credibility is calculated from only one group of policyholders from the previous year's data. For better value of premium credibility, data with more experience years and the policyholder group better reflect the total loss value during the observation year.The result of this calculation are credibility factor per group, average credibility premium per members in group and credibility premium total for the last year for each group. We can obtain total losses and total premium which surprisingly equal.
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6

Prihatiningsih, Witanti, and Fitria Ayuningtyas. "Analysis of Insurance Agent’s Credibility to Customer’s Attitude in Buying Policy." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.29 (May 22, 2018): 564. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.29.13819.

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Companies must have their own criteria for their sales agents, start from how to speak in front of potential customers, personal appearance and knowledge about the products and the company itself. The credibility of sales agents will make their companies have a good reputation. Insurance agents also trained by company to introduce the products until someone willing to buy the products and become their loyal customer. This research aims to determine whether there is any significant impact of insurance agent’s credibility to customer’s attitude in buying a policy. The long-term results of the research can be used as communication competence for agents to persuade potential customers, who probably initially not interest to buy the products, became a loyal customer. This research used combination between quantitative and qualitative research. This research used regression analysis to determine the impact of insurance agent’s credibility to customer’s attitude in buying policy and combine with triangulation data from qualitative perspective. The data collection techniques used questionnaires that distributed to the respondent and in-depth interview for key informant and informant(s). The respondent of this research were people who have insurance in the city of Sukabumi, West Java. The theory that used in this research was source credibility and customer’s attitude. The results of this research indicate that trustworthiness, expertise, and attractiveness of insurance agents have a significant impact to customer’s attitude in buying a policy. From the three components, the most important thing is the expertise. The expertise of insurance agent has a highest score compare with trustworthiness and attractiveness of insurance agent and thru in-depth interview, the respondent agreed that expertise is the important things of insurance agent’s credibility. This proves that the agent's expertise is more influential compared to trustworthiness and attractiveness
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7

Young, Virginia R. "Credibility and Persistency." ASTIN Bulletin 26, no. 1 (May 1996): 53–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.26.1.563233.

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AbstractPolicyholders often decide to buy, renew, or cancel insurance based on the premium charged by the insurer compared with what they expect their claims will be. It is important for actuaries to consider the persistency of policyholders because the financial well-being of the insurer depends on spreading its risk over a large book of business. We use statistical decision theory to develop premium formulas that account for the past experience of a given policyholder, the experience of the entire collection of policyholders, and the likelihood of the policyholder renewing with or buying from a given insurer, that is, persistency.We assume that the persistency of policyholders depends on the arithmetic difference between the premium charged and their anticipated claims. We extend the work of Taylor (1975) in which he obtains linear credibility formulas by minimizing loss functions that incorporate the persistency of policyholders. We consider Taylor's loss functions and other objective functions, including those that account for the amount of business the insurer writes or renews.
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8

Norberg, Ragnar. "Linear Estimation and Credibility in Continuous Time." ASTIN Bulletin 22, no. 2 (November 1992): 149–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.22.2.2005112.

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AbstractThe theory of linear filtering of stochastic processes provides continuous time analogues of finite-dimensional linear Bayes estimators known to actuaries as credibility methods. In the present paper a selfcontained theory is built for processes of bounded variation, which are of particular relevance to insurance. Two methods for constructing the optimal estimator and its mean squared error are deviced. Explicit solutions are obtained in a continuous time variation of Hachemeister's regression model and in a homogeneous doubly stochastic generalized Poisson process. The traditional discrete time set-up is compared to the one with continuous time, and some merits of the latter are pointed out.
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9

Holtan, Jon. "Bonus Made Easy." ASTIN Bulletin 24, no. 1 (May 1994): 61–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.24.1.2005081.

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AbstractThe paper introduces an alternative approach to the traditional experience rating theory in automobile insurance. The approach is based on a simple theory of how high deductibles financed by loans maintain the risk differentiation in an automobile insurance arrangement. Thus the approach differs totally from the usual bonus-malus classes as well as from the credibility based experience rating ideas. The paper is of a theoretical nature and leads up to a mathematical description of how the approach may be optimalized within the framework of a risk model.
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10

AGUSTINI, SISILIA MARTINA UTAMI, I. NYOMAN WIDANA, and NI KETUT TARI TASTRAWATI. "PENERAPAN METODE BAYES DALAM MENGESTIMASI PREMI RISIKO PADA ASURANSI PENYAKIT KRITIS." E-Jurnal Matematika 9, no. 4 (November 28, 2020): 251. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2020.v09.i04.p305.

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The high number of critical illness cases and the rising medical cost affect the number of insurance claimed. It can be a problem for the insurance company in estimating future claim trend to decide the risk premium cost, so that we need a method to solve the problem which is called Empirical Bayes Credibility Theory (EBCT). Based on that information, the goal of this research is estimating the risk premium cost for critical illness cases using EBCT method. In this research, a large simulation of the expected claim data of critical illness policyholders is used, which are grouped by age and gender. In processing data by applying the EBCT method, the credibility factor is determined first, then the size of the risk premium can be estimated, with the calculation results obtained by a different estimate of the risk premium for each age group based on gender.
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11

Yu, Wenguang, Guofeng Guan, Jingchao Li, Qi Wang, Xiaohan Xie, Yu Zhang, Yujuan Huang, Xinliang Yu, and Chaoran Cui. "Claim Amount Forecasting and Pricing of Automobile Insurance Based on the BP Neural Network." Complexity 2021 (January 20, 2021): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6616121.

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The BP neural network model is a hot issue in recent academic research, and it has been successfully applied to many other fields, but few researchers apply the BP neural network model to the field of automobile insurance. The main method that has been used in the prediction of the total claim amount in automobile insurance is the generalized linear model, where the BP neural network model could provide a different approach to estimate the total claim loss. This paper uses a genetic algorithm to optimize the structure of the BP neural network at first, and the calculation speed is significantly improved. At the same time, by considering the overfitting problem, an early stop method is introduced to avoid the overfitting problem. In the model, a three-layer BP neural network model, which includes the input layer, hidden layer, and output layer, is trained. With consideration of various factors, a total claim amount prediction model is established, and the trained BP neural network model is used to predict the total claim amount of automobile insurance based on the data of the training set. The results show that the accuracy of the prediction by using the BP neural network model to both the data of Shandong Province and to the data of six cities is over 95%. Then, the predicted total claim amount is used to calculate premiums for five cities in Shandong Province according to credibility theory. The results show that the average premium of the five cities is slightly higher than the actual claim amount of the city. The combination of BP neural network and credibility theory can perform accurate claim amount estimation and pricing for automobile insurance, which can effectively improve the current situation of the automobile insurance business and promote the development of insurance industry.
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12

Campbell, Malcolm. "An Integrated System for Estimating the Risk Premium of Individual Car Models in Motor Insurance." ASTIN Bulletin 16, no. 2 (November 1986): 165–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.16.2.2015006.

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AbstractThe estimation of risk premium for individual car models is discussed. Cluster analysis is used to identify groups of car models with similar technical attributes. Credibility theory is used to combine estimates of risk premium from individual car model claim statistics, group claim statistics, and a technical assessment carried out by car experts. The procedure is applied to a small set of car models.
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13

Bülbül, Serpil Ergün, and Kemal B. Baykal. "Optimal Bonus-Malus System Design in Motor Third-Party Liability Insurance in Turkey: Negative Binomial Model." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 8 (July 20, 2016): 205. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n8p205.

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One of the most significant instruments used in motor third-party liability insurance rating is bonus-malus system. The aim of the bonus-malus system is to provide a fairness of the premiums paid by ensuring everyone pays a premium that corresponds exactly to their own claim frequency. A balance of total amount of bonuses and maluses is very important to maintain the financial stability of the insurance companies. In Turkey, free tariff regime in motor third-party liability insurance has been adopted since 2014. In this study, an experience rating was employed via the insured’s individual claim experience by considering the drawbacks of using mandatory bonus-malus system. Data entailing information about the claim frequencies of automobiles over a year for motor third party liability policies were obtained from an insurance company. Optimal bonus-malus rates are determined by negative binomial model by using credibility theory, Bayesian approach and the principle of expected value premium.
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14

Verrall, R. J. "Bayes and Empirical Bayes Estimation for the Chain Ladder Model." ASTIN Bulletin 20, no. 2 (November 1990): 217–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.20.2.2005444.

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AbstractThe subject of predicting outstanding claims on a porfolio of general insurance policies is approached via the theory of hierarchical Bayesian linear models. This is particularly appropriate since the chain ladder technique can be expressed in the form of a linear model. The statistical methods which are applied allow the practitioner to use different modelling assumptions from those implied by a classical formulation, and to arrive at forecasts which have a greater degree of inherent stability. The results can also be used for other linear models. By using a statistical structure, a sound approach to the chain ladder technique can be derived. The Bayesian results allow the input of collateral information in a formal manner. Empirical Bayes results are derived which can be interpreted as credibility estimates. The statistical assumptions which are made in the modelling procedure are clearly set out and can be tested by the practitioner. The results based on the statistical theory form one part of the reserving procedure, and should be followed by expert interpretation and analysis. An illustration of the use of Bayesian and empirical Bayes estimation methods is given.
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15

Lee, Jai Seop. "The Impact of Fiscal Conservatism ; A Case Study of the 2007 National Pension System Reform in Korea." International Review of Financial Consumers 4, No. 1 Apr 2019 (April 1, 2019): 17–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.36544/irfc.2019.1-1.2.

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This research intends to identify the influential factors in the 2007 National Pension System (NPS) reform in Korea (the Republic of Korea) which drove the NPS toward a structural transformation. This research also examines the applicability of the theory of Clemens and Cook (1999) to the Korean policy shift, who argue that the innate driving force of a policy, an internal contradiction, can be a critical source of structural policy change. A literature review based case study was carried out in this research. The findings are as follows. Firstly, rising fiscal conservatism was the main determinant of the 2007 NPS structural reform. The processes and conditions of the reform documented were: the fiscal conservatism embedded in NPS generated serious policy problems and led to an accumulation of the internal contradictions within NPS by raising the question on its fundamental policy goal. As time passed without any self-correction mechanism with respect to the problematic policy, the NPS lost credibility in the eyes of the public and also lost policy legitimacy. At the same time, there was a competing policy alternative to the NPS. This was the universalistic tax-based Basic Old-Age Pension System. This has been a challenge to NPSin that it had been designed based on the social insurance financing principle. The pre-conditions for the structural NPS reform were fully complete and they could be exploited by self-interested political parties in the following policy-making stages. Secondly, the theoretical assumption that the internal contradiction of a policy can be a decisive power for structural transformation, as suggested by Clemens and Cook (1999) among others, was proven to be theoretically and practically accurate in the Korean public pension reform case.
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16

Coffie, William, and Ibrahim Bedi. "The effects of IFRS adoption and firm size on audit fees in financial institutions in Ghana." Accounting Research Journal 32, no. 3 (September 27, 2019): 436–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/arj-07-2017-0114.

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Purpose This study aims to investigate the effects of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) adoption and firm size on auditors’ fees determination in the Ghanaian financial industry. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the annual report of 52 listed and non-listed firms spanning from 2003 to 2014. Guided by the hypotheses, the authors conditioned audit fees on IFRS adoption and firm size and execute robust fixed effects panel regression. Findings The results show that IFRS adoption has a positive coefficient with audit fees suggesting that the adoption of IFRS, indeed, increases the audit fees paid by banks and insurance firms, as well as the industry as a whole. The results are consistent with the idea that IFRS adoption increases auditor efforts with respect to time and complex nature of some aspect of the standards. Again, as expected, the coefficient of size is positively and significantly related to audit fees. This indicates that the size of the auditee plays a vital role in determining audit fees. Research limitations/implications The study is limited by industry (i.e. the financial services industry) and geography (i.e. Ghana). The authors propose further research that will widely consider other sectors and countries to improve the current scanty literature in this area. Besides, theoretically, the study is limited to the lending credibility theory and feels compelled to reiterate the importance of considering alternative theoretical perspective(s) in future research. Practical implications This study is significant to practitioners as it demonstrates the importance of the determinants of the auditors’ fees. It helps auditors to apply the relevant charging formula when determining audit fees, while it helps managers to improve upon the quality of reporting to control audit bill and forecasting their audit expenditure. Originality/value The results of the study extend the literature on the cost side of IFRS adoption by investigating the financial services industry and non-listed firms in a new context, i.e. a developing country where this research is uncharted. The existing studies based their analysis on either cross-section or pooled analysis and shorter post-adoption period (Cameran and Perotti, 2014). However, using an extended post-adoption period data, the authors base the study on analytical panel model, which directly examine the cost side of IFRS adoption with size as joint key explanatory variables with emphasis on financial institutions and external auditors.
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17

Marin, Oleksandr. "nyk of the Lviv University. Series Law KEYWORDS abuse of authority, abuse of power, abuse of official status, abuse of office acts of the European Union, international legal regulation, employment, right to free movement advocacy, advocate activity, advocacy science, advocatologie, theory of advocacy appeal proceeding, grounds to judgement revision, inconsistency of the court’s findings at first instance with the actual circumstances of the criminal proceedings, cancellation or alteration of the judgment charity organization, founder, assets of charity organization, constituent documents criminal proceedings, subjects of criminal proceedings, the suspect, the suspect law, criminal procedure, international standards employer’s duty, right to the moral injury compensation, social insurance from an industrial accident, social need, labour dispute forms of the legal actions of the collective of employees historical and legal science department, scientific activity law enforcement equipment, individual legal act, the means of forming the content of the enforcement act, requirements for registration of individual legal act attributes (properties) of acts of law legal formula (construction), qualified corpus delicti of a crime, degree of social danger, crime-forming feature legal social community legal technique, technology, legal act, legal system, lawmaking legitimacy, investigation of crime, concept of criminalistics, criminalistics recommendations, tactical methods measures aimed at providing criminal proceedings, procedural sanction, monetary penalty, pre-trial investigation national implementation, forms of implementation, implementation practice, European states, international treaties participant, shareholder, partnership, acquisition, changing, suspension proof, probability, likelihood, credibility in evidence, reliability scientific school, research, development land, agricultural and environmental law, Lviv Scientific School land, agricultural and environmental law the High Council of Justice of Ukraine, the National Council of Justice of the Republic of Poland, judges’ independence, international standards of the judiciary the presumption of the labor legal personality OPEN JOURNAL SYSTEMS Journal Help USER Username Password Remember me Login NOTIFICATIONS View Subscribe LANGUAGE Select LanguageSubmit JOURNAL CONTENT Search Search Scope Search Browse By Issue By Author By Title Other Journals FONT SIZE Make font size smallerMake font size defaultMake font size larger INFORMATION For Readers For Authors For Librarians HOME ABOUT LOGIN REGISTER SEARCH CURRENT ARCHIVES ANNOUNCEMENTS Home > No 67 (2018) > Марін ONCE AGAIN ON THE RETROACTIVE EFFECT OF THE CRIMINAL LAW IN TIME IN THE ASPECT OF INDIRECT CRIMINALIZATION." Visnyk of the Lviv University. Series Law, no. 67 (December 24, 2018): 205–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vla.2018.67.205.

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18

Hong, Liang, and Ryan Martin. "Imprecise credibility theory." Annals of Actuarial Science, April 15, 2021, 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1748499521000117.

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Abstract The classical credibility theory is a cornerstone of experience rating, especially in the field of property and casualty insurance. An obstacle to putting the credibility theory into practice is the conversion of available prior information into a precise choice of crucial hyperparameters. In most real-world applications, the information necessary to justify a precise choice is lacking, so we propose an imprecise credibility estimator that honestly acknowledges the imprecision in the hyperparameter specification. This results in an interval estimator that is doubly robust in the sense that it retains the credibility estimator’s freedom from model specification and fast asymptotic concentration, while simultaneously being insensitive to prior hyperparameter specification.
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19

Yang, Li. "Estimating Insurance Premiums using Credibility Theory and Quantiles." MaRBLe 2 (March 26, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.26481/marble.2018.v2.618.

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20

Nomi, Marzia, and Md Mahiuddin Sabbir. "Investigating the Factors of Consumers’ Purchase Intention Towards Life Insurance in Bangladesh: An Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action." Asian Academy of Management Journal 25, no. 2 (December 6, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.21315/aamj2020.25.2.6.

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This study aims to examine the factors that influence consumer purchase intention towards life insurance. The study included religiosity, risk aversion motives, saving motives, and financial literacy with classical Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), therefore extending the model. A convenience sampling method was employed to collect data from 315 respondents working in different public and private institutions in Bangladesh. Collected data were analysed using the structural equation model (SEM). The results revealed that attitude, subjective norms, risk aversion motives, saving motives, and financial literacy have a significant positive impact on consumer purchase intention towards life insurance. Moreover, religiosity was found to have a negative impact on purchase intention. In addition, saving motives was found as a mediator in the relationship between risk aversion motives and purchase intention, as well as between financial literacy and purchase intention. Since attitude and subjective norms were found to have the most effect on purchase intention, the study implicated that marketers should emphasise company image, reputation, and the credibility of the agents, together with the significant others to whom we often turn to before making any financial decision. Finally, the study offered directions for further research after divulging several limitations.
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