Journal articles on the topic 'Coupling between the surface salinity and the ENSO cycle'
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1
Rathore, Saurabh, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Helen E. Phillips, and Ming Feng. "Near-Surface Salinity Reveals the Oceanic Sources of Moisture for Australian Precipitation through Atmospheric Moisture Transport." Journal of Climate 33, no. 15 (August 1, 2020): 6707–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0579.1.
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AbstractThe long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.
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Rathore, Saurabh, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Helen E. Phillips, Ming Feng, and Mayank Mishra. "Improving Australian Rainfall Prediction Using Sea Surface Salinity." Journal of Climate 34, no. 7 (April 2021): 2473–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0625.1.
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AbstractThis study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.
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Levine, Paul A., James T. Randerson, Yang Chen, Michael S. Pritchard, Min Xu, and Forrest M. Hoffman. "Soil Moisture Variability Intensifies and Prolongs Eastern Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation." Journal of Climate 32, no. 4 (February 2019): 1273–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0150.1.
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of climate and carbon cycle variability in the Amazon. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive teleconnections with temperature directly through changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes also impact precipitation and, consequently, soil moisture, enabling additional indirect effects on temperature through land–atmosphere coupling. To separate the direct influence of ENSO SST anomalies from the indirect effects of soil moisture, a mechanism-denial experiment was performed to decouple their variability in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) forced with observed SSTs from 1982 to 2016. Soil moisture variability was found to amplify and extend the effects of SST forcing on eastern Amazon temperature and carbon fluxes in E3SM. During the wet season, the direct, circulation-driven effect of ENSO SST anomalies dominated temperature and carbon cycle variability throughout the Amazon. During the following dry season, after ENSO SST anomalies had dissipated, soil moisture variability became the dominant driver in the east, explaining 67%–82% of the temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña years, and 85%–91% of the difference in carbon fluxes. These results highlight the need to consider the interdependence between temperature and hydrology when attributing the relative contributions of these factors to interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Specifically, when offline models are forced with observations or reanalysis, the contribution of temperature may be overestimated when its own variability is modulated by hydrology via land–atmosphere coupling.
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Brönnimann, S., M. Schraner, B. Müller, A. Fischer, D. Brunner, E. Rozanov, and T. Egorova. "The 1986–1989 ENSO cycle in a chemical climate model." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 6, no. 3 (May 18, 2006): 3965–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-6-3965-2006.
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Abstract. A pronounced ENSO cycle occurred from 1986 to 1989, accompanied by distinct dynamical and chemical anomalies in the global troposphere and stratosphere. Reproducing these effects with current climate models not only provides a model test but also contributes to our still limited understanding of ENSO's effect on stratosphere-troposphere coupling. We performed several sets of ensemble simulations with a chemical climate model (SOCOL) forced with global sea surface temperatures. Results were compared with observations and with large-ensemble simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model (MRF9). We focus our analysis on the extratropical stratosphere and its coupling with the troposphere. In this context, the circulation over the North Atlantic sector is particularly important. Observed differences between the El Niño winter 1987 and the La Niña winter 1989 include a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index with corresponding changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, a weak polar vortex, a warm Arctic middle stratosphere, negative and positive total ozone anomalies in the tropics and at middle to high latitudes, respectively, as well as anomalous upward and poleward Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Most of the tropospheric features are well reproduced in the ensemble means in both models, though the amplitudes are underestimated. In the stratosphere, the SOCOL simulations compare well with observations with respect to zonal wind, temperature, EP flux, and ozone, but magnitudes are underestimated in the middle stratosphere. The polar vortex strength is well reproduced, but within-ensemble variability is too large for obtaining a significant signal in Arctic temperature and ozone. With respect to the mechanisms relating ENSO to stratospheric circulation, the results suggest that both, upward and poleward components of anomalous EP flux are important for obtaining the stratospheric signal and that an increase in strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is part of that signal.
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Wang, Bin, Jing Yang, Tianjun Zhou, and Bin Wang. "Interdecadal Changes in the Major Modes of Asian–Australian Monsoon Variability: Strengthening Relationship with ENSO since the Late 1970s*." Journal of Climate 21, no. 8 (April 15, 2008): 1771–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1981.1.
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Abstract The present paper develops an integral view of the year-to-year variability across the entire Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) system, which covers one-third of the global tropics between 40° and 160°E. Using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis, the authors identified two major modes of variability for the period 1956–2004. The first exhibits a prominent biennial tendency and concurs with the turnabout of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), providing a new perspective of the seasonally evolving spatiotemporal structure for tropospheric biennial oscillation. The second mode leads ENSO by one year. The remote El Niño forcing, the monsoon–warm pool ocean interaction, and the influence of the annual cycle are three fundamental factors for understanding the behavior of the first mode. The monsoon–ocean interaction is characterized by a positive feedback between the off-equatorial convectively coupled Rossby waves and the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) “dipole” anomalies. Since the late 1970s the overall coupling between the A–AM system and ENSO has become strengthened. The relationships between ENSO and the western North Pacific, East Asian, and Indonesian monsoons have all become enhanced during ENSO’s developing, mature, and decaying phases, overriding the weakening of the Indian monsoon–ENSO anticorrelation during the developing phase. Prior to the late 1970s (1956–79), the first mode shows a strong biennial tendency, and the second mode does not lead ENSO. After 1980, the first mode shows a weakening biennial tendency, and the second mode provides a strong precursory signal for ENSO. These interdecadal changes are attributed to increased magnitude and periodicity of ENSO and the strengthened monsoon–ocean interaction.
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Li, Xiuzhen, Zhiping Wen, Deliang Chen, and Zesheng Chen. "Decadal Transition of the Leading Mode of Interannual Moisture Circulation over East Asia–Western North Pacific: Bonding to Different Evolution of ENSO." Journal of Climate 32, no. 2 (December 18, 2018): 289–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0356.1.
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Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle has a great impact on the summer moisture circulation over East Asia (EA) and the western North Pacific [WNP (EA-WNP)] on an interannual time scale, and its modulation is mainly embedded in the leading mode. In contrast to the stable influence of the mature phase of ENSO, the impact of synchronous eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on summer moisture circulation is negligible during the 1970s–80s, while it intensifies after 1991. In response, the interannual variation of moisture circulation exhibits a much more widespread anticyclonic/cyclonic pattern over the subtropical WNP and a weaker counterpart to the north after 1991. Abnormal moisture moves farther northward with the enhanced moisture convergence, and thus precipitation shifts from the Yangtze River to the Huai River valley. The decadal shift in the modulation of ENSO on moisture circulation arises from a more rapid evolution of the bonding ENSO cycle and its stronger coupling with circulation over the Indian Ocean after 1991. The rapid development of cooling SSTAs over the central-eastern Pacific, and warming SSTAs to the west over the eastern Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent (EIO-MC) in summer, stimulates abnormal descending motion over the western-central Pacific and ascending motion over the EIO-MC. The former excites an anticyclone over the WNP as a Rossby wave response, sustaining and intensifying the WNP anticyclone; the latter helps anchor the anticyclone over the tropical–subtropical WNP via an abnormal southwest–northeast vertical circulation between EIO-MC and WNP.
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Trzaska, Sylwia, Andrew W. Robertson, John D. Farrara, and Carlos R. Mechoso. "South Atlantic Variability Arising from Air–Sea Coupling: Local Mechanisms and Tropical–Subtropical Interactions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 14 (July 15, 2007): 3345–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4114.1.
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Abstract Interannual variability in the southern and equatorial Atlantic is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in the Atlantic in order to isolate features of air–sea interactions particular to this basin. Simulated covariability between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmosphere is very similar to the observed non-ENSO-related covariations in both spatial structures and time scales. The leading simulated empirical coupled mode resembles the zonal mode in the tropical Atlantic, despite the lack of ocean dynamics, and is associated with baroclinic atmospheric anomalies in the Tropics and a Rossby wave train extending to the extratropics, suggesting an atmospheric response to tropical SST forcing. The second non-ENSO mode is the subtropical dipole in the SST with a mainly equivalent barotropic atmospheric anomaly centered on the subtropical high and associated with a midlatitude wave train, consistent with atmospheric forcing of the subtropical SST. The power spectrum of the tropical mode in both simulation and observation is red with two major interannual peaks near 5 and 2 yr. The quasi-biennial component exhibits a progression between the subtropics and the Tropics. It is phase locked to the seasonal cycle and owes its existence to the imbalances between SST–evaporation and SST–shortwave radiation feedbacks. These feedbacks are found to be reversed between the western and eastern South Atlantic, associated with the dominant role of deep convection in the west and that of shallow clouds in the east. A correct representation of tropical–extratropical interactions and of deep and shallow clouds may thus be crucial to the simulation of realistic interannual variability in the southern and tropical Atlantic.
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Su, Hui, J. David Neelin, and Joyce E. Meyerson. "Mechanisms for Lagged Atmospheric Response to ENSO SST Forcing*." Journal of Climate 18, no. 20 (October 15, 2005): 4195–215. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3514.1.
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Abstract The mechanism and sensitivity of the lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST forcing are examined using the Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model (QTCM) coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean model, along with a simple analytical model. It is found that the lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature response depend on mixed layer depth (MLD), ENSO SST forcing period, areal fraction of the mixed layer ocean, and the strength of Tropics to midlatitude transports. The phase lag is not a monotonic function of mixed layer depth. It maximizes at moderate MLD and, thus, is not very sensitive to MLD in the realistic range. The phase lag asymptotes to values determined by free-atmospheric time scales, between 1 and 2 months, for small or large values of MLD. The amplitude of the tropospheric temperature response decreases with increasing MLD. The phase lag and amplitude of tropospheric temperature both increase as a specified ENSO SST forcing period increases and they appear to be rather insensitive to the seasonal cycle of SST. On the other hand, the phase lag and amplitude of mixed layer ocean SST change monotonically with MLD and ENSO forcing period, with a deeper mixed layer producing longer lag and smaller amplitude of SST anomalies. Longer ENSO SST forcing periods correspond to longer lag and larger amplitude of mixed layer ocean SST anomalies. While the ENSO region convective heating (precipitation) anomalies are closely tied to SST anomalies, the tropical mean precipitation seems best viewed as a complex by-product of the response rather than as a driver. One useful parameter determining the lag of tropospheric temperature to ENSO SST is the freedecay time scale of the coupled system. This parameter combines the effects of surface flux exchanges, heat loss at the top of the atmosphere and from the Tropics to midlatitudes, and finite ocean heat capacity. It is indicative of the extent to which the lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO SST is a coupled phenomenon. Overall, the contribution of coupling to SST outside the ENSO region substantially increases the amplitude and lag of the tropospheric temperature response to ENSO.
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Zhong, Aihong, Harry H. Hendon, and Oscar Alves. "Indian Ocean Variability and Its Association with ENSO in a Global Coupled Model." Journal of Climate 18, no. 17 (September 1, 2005): 3634–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3493.1.
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Abstract The evolution of the Indian Ocean during El Niño–Southern Oscillation is investigated in a 100-yr integration of an Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. During El Niño, easterly anomalies are induced across the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. These act to suppress the equatorial thermocline to the west and elevate it to the east and initially cool (warm) the sea surface temperature (SST) in the east (west). Subsequently, the entire Indian Ocean basin warms, mainly in response to the reduced latent heat flux and enhanced shortwave radiation that is associated with suppressed rainfall. This evolution can be partially explained by the excitation of an intrinsic coupled mode that involves a feedback between anomalous equatorial easterlies and zonal gradients in SST and rainfall. This positive feedback develops in the boreal summer and autumn seasons when the mean thermocline is shallow in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in response to trade southeasterlies. This positive feedback diminishes once the climatological surface winds become westerly at the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. ENSO is the leading mechanism that excites this coupled mode, but not all ENSO events are efficient at exciting it. During the typical El Niño (La Niña) event, easterly (westerly) anomalies are not induced until after boreal autumn, which is too late in the annual cycle to instigate strong dynamical coupling. Only those ENSO events that develop early (i.e., before boreal summer) instigate a strong coupled response in the Indian Ocean. The coupled mode can also be initiated in early boreal summer by an equatorward shift of the subtropical ridge in the southern Indian Ocean, which stems from uncoupled extratropical variability.
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Jin, Chenxi, Tianjun Zhou, and Xiaolong Chen. "Can CMIP5 Earth System Models Reproduce the Interannual Variability of Air–Sea CO2 Fluxes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean?" Journal of Climate 32, no. 8 (April 2, 2019): 2261–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0131.1.
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Abstract Interannual variability of air–sea CO2 exchange is an important metric that represents the interaction between the carbon cycle and climate change. Although previous studies report a large bias in the CO2 flux interannual variability in many Earth system models (ESMs), the reason for this bias remains unclear. In this study, the performance of ESMs in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is assessed in the context of the variability of air–sea CO2 flux over the tropical Pacific related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using an emission-driven historical experiment. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the first principal component of air–sea CO2 flux shows a significant relationship with the Niño-3.4 index in both the observation-based product and models. In the observation-based product, the spatial pattern of EOF1 shows negative anomalies in the central Pacific, which is, however, in contrast to those in several ESMs, and even opposite in sign to those in HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR. The unrealistic response of the air–sea CO2 flux to ENSO mainly originates from the biases in the anomalous surface-water CO2 partial pressure (). A linear Taylor expansion by decomposing the anomalous into contributions from salinity, sea surface temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and alkalinity is applied to diagnose the biases. The results show that decreased during El Niño results from reduced upwelling of high-concentration DIC from deeper layers that overwhelms the increasing caused by warmer sea surface temperature. Overly weak reduction of vertical motion during El Niño and weak vertical gradients of climatological DIC concentration are the main reasons for biases in the negative surface DIC anomalies and eventually the anomalies. This study highlights the importance of both physical ocean responses to El Niño and climatological distributions of carbon-related tracers in the simulation of the interannual variability of air–sea CO2 fluxes.
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Ning, X., C. Lin, Q. Hao, C. Liu, F. Le, and J. Shi. "Long term changes in the ecosystem in the northern South China Sea during 1976–2004." Biogeosciences Discussions 5, no. 5 (September 12, 2008): 3737–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-5-3737-2008.
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Abstract. Physical and chemical oceanographic data were obtained by seasonal monitoring along Transect N in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) during 1976–2004. Fluctuations of DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen), seawater temperature (SST and Tav – average temperature of the water column), N:P ratio and salinity (Sav and S200 – salinity at the 200 m layer) exhibited an increasing trend, while those of T200, DO, P, Si, Si:N and SSS exhibited a decreasing trend. The annual rates of change in DIN, DO, T and S revealed pronounced changes, and the climate trend coefficients Rxt, which was defined as the correlation coefficient between the time series of an environmental parameter and the nature number, were 0.38 to 0.89 and significant (p≤0.01 to 0.05). Our results also showed that the ecosystem has obviously been influenced by the positive trends of both SST and DIN, and negative trends of both DO and P, e.g. before 1997, DIN concentrations in the upper layer were very low and N:P ratios were less than half of the Redfield ratio of 16, indicating potential N limitation. However, after 1997, all Si:P ratios were >22 and the Nav:Pav was close to the Redfield ratio, indicating potential P limitation, and therefore N limitation has been reduced after 1997. Ecological investigation shows that there have been some improved responses of the ecosystems to the long-term environmental changes in the nSCS, and chlorophyll-a concentration, primary production, phytoplankton abundance, benthic biomass, cephalopod catch and demersal trawl catch have increased. But phosphorus depletion in upper layer may be related to the shift in the dominant species from diatoms to dinoflagellates and cyanophytes. The ecosystem response was induced by not only anthropogenic activities, but also global climate change, e.g. pronounced responses to ENSO. The effects of climate change on the nSCS were mainly through changes in the monsoon winds, and physical-biological oceanography coupling processes.
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Oke, P. R., D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway. "Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model." Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 5, no. 4 (December 18, 2012): 4305–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-5-4305-2012.
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Abstract. Analysis of the variability in an 18-yr run of a near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed-layer depth (MLD), sea-level anomaly (SLA), sea-surface temperature (SST), and Chlorophyll a indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, that results in errors in the Chlorophyll a, owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally-averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key Straits and passages, zonal averaged temperature and salinity, and El Nino-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed; volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates; and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceed 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand ocean dynamics and ocean variability.
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Steinbrecht, W., B. Haßler, C. Brühl, M. Dameris, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, E. Manzini, et al. "Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and temperature in observations and model simulations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 5, no. 5 (September 26, 2005): 9207–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-5-9207-2005.
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Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2002, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2002, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Both models reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability, MAECHAM4-CHEM somewhat better than E39/C. Total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature show similar patterns. Main contributions to the interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to −30 Dobson Units (DU) per decade, or −1.5 K/decade), the QBO (up to 25 DU, or 2.5 K peak to peak), the intensity of the polar vortices (up to 50 DU, or 5 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 30 DU, or 3 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 25 DU, or 2.5 K), and to ENSO (up to 15 DU, or 1.5 K). Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to −40 DU, or +3 K). Most stratospheric variations are connected to the troposphere, both in observations and simulations. At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high- latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.
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d’Orgeville, Marc, and W. Richard Peltier. "Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part II: On the Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Basin." Journal of Climate 22, no. 20 (October 15, 2009): 5298–318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2775.1.
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Abstract The nature of the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic basin is investigated through detailed analysis of multicentury integrations performed using the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), a modern atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. Specifically, the results of control simulations under both preindustrial and present-day perpetual seasonal cycle conditions are compared to each other and also to the results of five simulations with increasing CO2 concentration scenarios. In the absence of greenhouse gas–induced warming, the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) variability is shown to be dependent on the details of the simulation. In the present-day control simulation, the MOC is characterized by a broad spectrum of low frequencies, whereas, in preindustrial control simulations, MOC variability is characterized either by a well-defined periodicity of 60 yr or by a broad spectrum of low frequencies. In all the control simulations, the MOC appears to respond with a delay of 10 yr to synchronous temperature and salinity anomalies in the deep water formation sites located in the subpolar gyre, but salinity dominates the density anomalies. The explanation of the modeled MOC periodicity is therefore sought in the creation of these density anomalies. The influence of increased sea ice coverage under cold/preindustrial conditions is shown to modify the salinity variability, but it is not a sufficient condition for the support of the MOC periodicity. Instead, its source appears to be a modified subpolar gyre circulation resulting from interaction with the bottom bathymetry, which is able to sustain strong coupling between the horizontal and overturning circulations. Based on the global warming analyses, for the simulations initialized from the cold/preindustrial statistical equilibrium run, the North Atlantic variability continues to be dominated by strong coupling between the horizontal and overturning circulations if the imposed forcing is weak. More generally, the delayed response of the MOC to surface density anomalies in the deep water formation regions is preserved under weak forcing.
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Ning, X., C. Lin, Q. Hao, C. Liu, F. Le, and J. Shi. "Long term changes in the ecosystem in the northern South China Sea during 1976–2004." Biogeosciences 6, no. 10 (October 26, 2009): 2227–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-2227-2009.
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Abstract. Physical and chemical oceanographic data were obtained by seasonal monitoring along a transect (Transect N) in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) during 1976–2004. Fluctuations of DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen), seawater temperature (SST and Tav – average temperature of the water column), N:P ratio and salinity (Sav and S200 – salinity at the 200 m layer) exhibited an increasing trend, while those of T200, DO, P, Si, Si:N and SSS exhibited a decreasing trend. The annual rates of change in DIN, DO, T and S revealed pronounced changes, and the climate trend coefficients, which was defined as the correlation coefficient between the time series of an environmental parameter and the nature number (namely 1,2,3,......n), were 0.38 to 0.89 and significant (p≤0.01 to 0.05). Our results also showed that the ecosystem has obviously been influenced by the positive trends of both SST and DIN, and negative trends of both DO and P. For example, before 1997, DIN concentrations in the upper layer were very low and N:P ratios were less than half of the Redfield ratio of 16, indicating potential N limitation. However after 1997, all Si:P ratios were >22 and the Nav:Pav was close to the Redfield ratio, indicating potential P limitation, and therefore N limitation has been reduced after 1997. Ecological investigation shows that there have been some obvious responses of the ecosystems to the long-term environmental changes in the nSCS. Chlorophyll-a concentration, primary production, phytoplankton abundance, benthic biomass, cephalopod catch and demersal trawl catch have increased. But phosphorus depletion in upper layer may be related to the shift in the dominant species from diatoms to dinoflagellates and cyanophytes. The ecosystem response was induced by not only anthropogenic activities, but also global climate change, e.g. ENSO. The effects of climate change on the nSCS were mainly through changes in the monsoon winds, and physical-biological oceanography coupling processes. In this study physical-chemical parameters were systemic maintained, but the contemporaneous biological data were collected from various sources. Regional response to global climate change is clearly a complicated issue, which is far from well understood. This study was made an attempt to tackle this important issue. For the aim these data were valuable.
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Roberts, Christopher D., Retish Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Mayer, and Sarah P. E. Keeley. "Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP." Geoscientific Model Development 11, no. 9 (September 11, 2018): 3681–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018.
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Abstract. This paper presents atmosphere-only and coupled climate model configurations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) for different combinations of ocean and atmosphere resolution. These configurations are used to perform multi-decadal ensemble experiments following the protocols of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are used to evaluate the sensitivity of major biases in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere to changes in atmosphere and ocean resolution. All configurations successfully reproduce the observed long-term trends in global mean surface temperature. Furthermore, following an adjustment to account for drift in the subsurface ocean, coupled configurations of ECMWF-IFS realistically reproduce observation-based estimates of ocean heat content change since 1950. Climatological surface biases in ECMWF-IFS are relatively insensitive to an increase in atmospheric resolution from ∼ 50 to ∼ 25 km. However, increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmosphere while maintaining the same vertical resolution enhances the magnitude of a cold bias in the lower stratosphere. In coupled configurations, there is a strong sensitivity to an increase in ocean model resolution from 1 to 0.25°. However, this sensitivity to ocean resolution takes many years to fully manifest and is less apparent in the first year of integration. This result has implications for the ECMWF coupled model development strategy that typically relies on the analysis of biases in short ( < 1 year) ensemble (re)forecast data sets. The impacts of increased ocean resolution are particularly evident in the North Atlantic and Arctic, where they are associated with an improved Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, increased meridional ocean heat transport, and more realistic sea-ice cover. In the tropical Pacific, increased ocean resolution is associated with improvements to the magnitude and asymmetry of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and better representation of non-linear sea surface temperature (SST)–radiation feedbacks during warm events. However, increased ocean model resolution also increases the magnitude of a warm bias in the Southern Ocean. Finally, there is tentative evidence that both ocean coupling and increased atmospheric resolution can improve teleconnections between tropical Pacific rainfall and geopotential height anomalies in the North Atlantic.
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Contreras, Robert F. "Long-Term Observations of Tropical Instability Waves." Journal of Physical Oceanography 32, no. 9 (September 1, 2002): 2715–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485-32.9.2715.
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Abstract Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data showing tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the tropical Pacific are analyzed along with current measurements from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) buoy array and wind speeds from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) -1 and -2 scatterometers. TIWs are visible as undulations in the SST cold fronts that delineate the northern and southern boundaries of the cold tongue in the equatorial Pacific. The SST pattern results from advection of the SST front by instabilities in the near-surface equatorial currents. Although the waves are seen on both sides of the Pacific cold tongue and north of the equator in the Atlantic, they are most intense, and thereby most observable, in the north equatorial Pacific. The combination of data used in this analysis provides information about these waves, the factors controlling them, and their coupling to the atmosphere on annual and interannual timescales. On annual timescales, the TIWs generally establish a strong signal in July east of about 140°W with a westward phase speed of about 0.5 m s−1. By August, the waves usually occupy the longitudes between 160° and 100°W and continue to propagate west at roughly the same speed. With the onset of the warm season in the equatorial cold tongue (spring), the signal typically weakens and the propagation speeds show large variations. On interannual timescales, activity is strongest during the cold phase of the ENSO cycle (La Niña) when the cold tongue is most pronounced; the waves are weak or nonexistent during the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) when the SST front is weak. The TIW signature in SST is noticeable throughout all seasons of the year provided that the gradient in SST at 140°W is greater than about 0.25°C (100 km)−1. In addition, analysis of the currents underlines the importance of the background currents to the zonal propagation speeds.
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Lewis, Huw W., Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, John Siddorn, Robert R. King, Marina Tonani, Andrew Saulter, Peter Sykes, et al. "Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?" Ocean Science 15, no. 3 (June 5, 2019): 669–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019.
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Abstract. Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean–atmosphere interface is represented through ocean–wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean–wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean–wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.
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Oke, P. R., D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway. "Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model." Geoscientific Model Development 6, no. 3 (May 3, 2013): 591–615. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-591-2013.
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Abstract. Analysis of the variability of the last 18 yr (1993–2012) of a 32 yr run of a new near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed layer depth (MLD), sea level anomaly (SLA), sea surface temperature (SST), and {\\chla} indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, which results in errors in the {\\chla}, owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key straits and passages, zonally averaged temperature and salinity, and El Niño-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed; volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates; and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceeds 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand upper ocean dynamics and ocean variability at mid- and low latitudes. The new model is intended to underpin a future version of Australia's operational short-range ocean forecasting system.
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Steinbrecht, W., B. Haßler, C. Brühl, M. Dameris, M. A. Giorgetta, V. Grewe, E. Manzini, et al. "Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6, no. 2 (February 6, 2006): 349–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-349-2006.
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Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to -10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to -40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around -0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to -30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.
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Wajsowicz, Roxana C. "Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Potential Predictability and Barriers." Journal of Climate 20, no. 13 (July 1, 2007): 3320–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4162.1.
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Abstract Whether seasonally phased-locked persistence and predictability barriers, similar to the boreal spring barriers found for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exist for the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate is investigated using observations and hindcasts from two coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble forecast systems: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) for 1990–2003, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) system for 1993–2002. The potential predictability of the climate is also assessed under the “perfect model/ensemble” assumption. Lagged correlations of the indices calculated over the east and west poles of the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IDM) index show weak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) persistence barriers in boreal spring at both poles, but the major decline in correlation at the east pole occurs in boreal midwinter for all start months with an almost immediate recovery, albeit negative correlations, until summer approaches. Processes responsible for the change in sign of SSTAs associated with a major IDM event effect a similar change on much weaker SSTAs. At the west pole, a major decline occurs at the end of boreal summer for fall and winter starts when the thermocline deepens with the seasonal cycle and coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is weak. A decline in skillful prediction of SSTA at the east pole over boreal winter is also found in the hindcasts, but the relatively large thermocline depth anomalies are skillfully predicted through this time and skill in SSTA prediction returns. A predictability barrier at the onset of the boreal summer monsoon is found at both IDM poles with some return of skill in late fall. Potential predictability calculations suggest that this barrier may be overcome at the west pole with improvements to the forecast systems, but not at the east pole for forecasts initiated in boreal winter unless the ocean is initialized with a memory of fall conditions.
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Day, John, H. Clark, Chandong Chang, Rachael Hunter, and Charles Norman. "Life Cycle of Oil and Gas Fields in the Mississippi River Delta: A Review." Water 12, no. 5 (May 23, 2020): 1492. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12051492.
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Oil and gas (O&G) activity has been pervasive in the Mississippi River Delta (MRD). Here we review the life cycle of O&G fields in the MRD focusing on the production history and resulting environmental impacts and show how cumulative impacts affect coastal ecosystems. Individual fields can last 40–60 years and most wells are in the final stages of production. Production increased rapidly reaching a peak around 1970 and then declined. Produced water lagged O&G and was generally higher during declining O&G production, making up about 70% of total liquids. Much of the wetland loss in the delta is associated with O&G activities. These have contributed in three major ways to wetland loss including alteration of surface hydrology, induced subsidence due to fluids removal and fault activation, and toxic stress due to spilled oil and produced water. Changes in surface hydrology are related to canal dredging and spoil placement. As canal density increases, the density of natural channels decreases. Interconnected canal networks often lead to saltwater intrusion. Spoil banks block natural overland flow affecting exchange of water, sediments, chemicals, and organisms. Lower wetland productivity and reduced sediment input leads to enhanced surficial subsidence. Spoil banks are not permanent but subside and compact over time and many spoil banks no longer have subaerial expression. Fluid withdrawal from O&G formations leads to induced subsidence and fault activation. Formation pore pressure decreases, which lowers the lateral confining stress acting in the formation due to poroelastic coupling between pore pressure and stress. This promotes normal faulting in an extensional geological environment like the MRD, which causes surface subsidence in the vicinity of the faults. Induced reservoir compaction results in a reduction of reservoir thickness. Induced subsidence occurs in two phases especially when production rate is high. The first phase is compaction of the reservoir itself while the second phase is caused by a slow drainage of pore pressure in bounding shales that induces time-delayed subsidence associated with shale compaction. This second phase can continue for decades, even after most O&G has been produced, resulting in subsidence over much of an oil field that can be greater than surface subsidence due to altered hydrology. Produced water is water brought to the surface during O&G extraction and an estimated 2 million barrels per day were discharged into Louisiana coastal wetlands and waters from nearly 700 sites. This water is a mixture of either liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons, high salinity (up to 300 ppt) water, dissolved and suspended solids such as sand or silt, and injected fluids and additives associated with exploration and production activities and it is toxic to many estuarine organisms including vegetation and fauna. Spilled oil has lethal and sub-lethal effects on a wide range of estuarine organisms. The cumulative effect of alterations in surface hydrology, induced subsidence, and toxins interact such that overall impacts are enhanced. Restoration of coastal wetlands degraded by O&G activities should be informed by these impacts.
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Paredes-Trejo, Franklin, Humberto Alves Barbosa, Jason Giovannettone, T. V. Lakshmi Kumar, Manoj Kumar Thakur, and Catarina de Oliveira Buriti. "Long-Term Spatiotemporal Variation of Droughts in the Amazon River Basin." Water 13, no. 3 (January 30, 2021): 351. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13030351.
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The Amazon River Basin (ARB) plays an important role in the hydrological cycle at the regional and global scales. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the incidence and severity of droughts could increase in this basin due to human-induced climate change. Therefore, the assessment of the impacts of extreme droughts in the ARB is of vital importance to develop appropriate drought mitigation strategies. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive characterization of dry spells and extreme drought events in terms of occurrence, persistence, spatial extent, severity, and impacts on streamflow and vegetation in the ARB during the period 1901–2018. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales (i.e., 3, 6, and 12 months) was used as a drought index. A weak basin-wide drying trend was observed, but there was no evidence of a trend in extreme drought events in terms of spatial coverage, intensity, and duration for the period 1901–2018. Nevertheless, a progressive transition to drier-than-normal conditions was evident since the 1970s, coinciding with different patterns of coupling between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as an increasing incidence of higher-than-normal surface air temperatures over the basin. Furthermore, a high recurrence of short-term drought events with high level of exposure to long-term drought conditions on the sub-basins Ucayali, Japurá-Caquetá, Jari, Jutaí, Marañón, and Xingu was observed in recent years. These results could be useful to guide social, economic, and water resource policy decision-making processes in the Amazon basin countries.
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Dai, Aiguo. "Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models." Journal of Climate 19, no. 18 (September 15, 2006): 4605–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3884.1.
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Abstract Monthly and 3-hourly precipitation data from twentieth-century climate simulations by the newest generation of 18 coupled climate system models are analyzed and compared with available observations. The characteristics examined include the mean spatial patterns, intraseasonal-to-interannual and ENSO-related variability, convective versus stratiform precipitation ratio, precipitation frequency and intensity for different precipitation categories, and diurnal cycle. Although most models reproduce the observed broad patterns of precipitation amount and year-to-year variability, models without flux corrections still show an unrealistic double-ITCZ pattern over the tropical Pacific, whereas the flux-corrected models, especially the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM; version 2.3.2a), produce realistic rainfall patterns at low latitudes. As in previous generations of coupled models, the rainfall double ITCZs are related to westward expansion of the cold tongue of sea surface temperature (SST) that is observed only over the equatorial eastern Pacific but extends to the central Pacific in the models. The partitioning of the total variance of precipitation among intraseasonal, seasonal, and longer time scales is generally reproduced by the models, except over the western Pacific where the models fail to capture the large intraseasonal variations. Most models produce too much convective (over 95% of total precipitation) and too little stratiform precipitation over most of the low latitudes, in contrast to 45%–65% in convective form in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations. The biases in the convective versus stratiform precipitation ratio are linked to the unrealistically strong coupling of tropical convection to local SST, which results in a positive correlation between the standard deviation of Niño-3.4 SST and the local convective-to-total precipitation ratio among the models. The models reproduce the percentage of the contribution (to total precipitation) and frequency for moderate precipitation (10–20 mm day−1), but underestimate the contribution and frequency for heavy (>20 mm day−1) and overestimate them for light (<10 mm day−1) precipitation. The newest generation of coupled models still rains too frequently, mostly within the 1–10 mm day−1 category. Precipitation intensity over the storm tracks around the eastern coasts of Asia and North America is comparable to that in the ITCZ (10–12 mm day−1) in the TRMM data, but it is much weaker in the models. The diurnal analysis suggests that warm-season convection still starts too early in these new models and occurs too frequently at reduced intensity in some of the models. The results show that considerable improvements in precipitation simulations are still desirable for the latest generation of the world’s coupled climate models.
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Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer. "State of the Climate in 2010." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92, no. 6 (June 1, 2011): S1—S236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-92.6.s1.
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Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth's energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic—reached in September—was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September.
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Rathore, Saurabh, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Helen E. Phillips, Ming Feng, and Mayank Mishra. "Improving Australian Rainfall Prediction Using Sea Surface Salinity." Journal of Climate, January 8, 2021, 1–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0625.1.
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AbstractThis study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer (December-February, DJF) rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E-165°W and 10°S-10°N), and SSSI (50°E-95°E and 10°S-10°N)] co-varies with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis based on high (low) SSS events in SSSP and SSSI region is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric 31 moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high (low) SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole (co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole) with anomalously wet (dry) conditions over Australia. During the high (low) SSS events of SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence (divergence) of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet (dry) conditions over Australia with a positive (negative) soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas, for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.