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Leung, Seng Yuen. "Analysis of counterparty risks and derivative pricing under stochastic volatility /." View abstract or full-text, 2004. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?MATH%202004%20LEUNG.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-131). Also available in electronic version. Access restricted to campus users.
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Ruan, Zheng. "CDS pricing with counterparty risk." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/6083.
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This thesis focuses on the impact of counterparty-risk in CDS (Credit Default Swap) pricing. The exponential growth of the Credit Derivatives Market in the last decade demands an upsurge in the fair valuation of various credit derivatives such as the Credit Default Swap (CDS), the Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Financial institutions suffered great losses from Credit Derivatives in the sub-prime mortgage market during the credit crunch period. Counterparty risk in CDS contracts has been intensively studied with a focus on losses for protection buyers due to joint defaults of counterparty and reference entity. Using a contagion framework introduced by Jarrow and Yu (2001)[48], we calculate the swap premium rate based on the change of measure technique, and further extend both the two-firm and three-firm model (with defaultable protection buyer) with continuous premium payment. The results show more explanatory power than the discrete case. We improve the continuous contagion model by relaxing the constant intensity rate assumption and found close results without loss of generality. Empirically this thesis studies the behaviour of the historical credit spread of 55 sample corporates/ financial institutions, a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model is applied to calibrate spread parameters. A proxy for counterparty spread is introduced as the difference between the spread over benchmark rate and spread over swap rate for 5 year maturity CDS. We then investigate counterparty risk during the crisis and study the shape of term structure for the counterparty spread, where Rebonato’s framework is deployed to model the dynamics of the term structure using a regime-switching framework.
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Zhang, Yang (Stephen). "Counterparty credit risk, funding risk and central clearing." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/61334.
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In this thesis we have a review of the critical issues of CVA/DVA/FVA pricing framework, provide detailed economic interpretations of these xVA terms and present empirical studies on DVA hedging practice in the marketplace and a new approach to hedge DVAs. The economic drivers and implications of central clearing and initial margins on derivatives are addressed as well.
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Starlander, Isak. "Counterparty Credit Risk on the Blockchain." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215493.
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Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit risk withthe use of blockchain. From the market study of this thesis, it is obvious thatthe current financial market needs more education about blockchain technology.Motpartsrisk är närvarande i finansiella obligationer. Den här uppsatsen un- dersöker den lovande teknologin blockkedjan och hur den kan användas för att reducera motpartsrisk. Studien har för avsikt att täcka det essentiel- la i den matematiska modellen för förväntad förlust, samt en introduktion om blockkedjeteknologi. Efter att ha modellerat ett enkelt smart kontrakt, där historiska finansiella data använts, var det tydligt att det kan finnas en möjlighet att reducera motpartsrisk med hjälp av blockkedjan. Från mark- nadsundersökningen gjord i studien var det uppenbart att den nuvarande finansiella marknaden är i stort behov av mer utbildning om blockkedjan.
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Li, Wang. "Default contagion modelling and counterparty credit risk." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/default-contagion-modelling-and-counterparty-credit-risk(76eee42a-d83d-4af9-956e-050615298b65).html.
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This thesis introduces models for pricing credit default swaps (CDS) and evaluating the counterparty risk when buying a CDS in the over-the-counter (OTC) market from a counterpart subjected to default risk. Rather than assuming that the default of the referencing firm of the CDS is independent of the trading parties in the CDS, this thesis proposes models that capture the default correlation amongst the three parties involved in the trade, namely the referencing firm, the buyer and the seller. We investigate how the counterparty risk that CDS buyers face can be affected by default correlation and how their balance sheet could be influenced by the changes in counterparty risk. The correlation of corporate default events has been frequently observed in credit markets due to the close business relationships of certain firms in the economy. One of the many mathematical approaches to model that correlation is default contagion. We propose an innovative model of default contagion which provides more flexibility by allowing the affected firm to recover from a default contagion event. We give a detailed derivation of the partial differential equations (PDE) for valuing both the CDS and the credit value adjustment (CVA). Numerical techniques are exploited to solve these PDEs. We compare our model against other models from the literature when measuring the CVA of an OTC CDS when the default risk of the referencing firm and the CDS seller is correlated. Further, the model is extended to incorporate economy-wide events that will damage all firms' credit at the same time-this is another kind of default correlation. Advanced numerical techniques are proposed to solve the resulting partial-integro differential equations (PIDE). We focus on investigating the different role of default contagion and economy-wide events have in terms of shaping the default correlation and counterparty risk. We complete the study by extending the model to include bilateral counterparty risk, which considers the default of the buyer and the correlation among the three parties. Again, our extension leads to a higher-dimensional problem that we must tackle with hybrid numerical schemes. The CVA and debit value adjustment (DVA) are analysed in detail and we are able to value the profit and loss to the investor's balance sheet due to CVA and DVA profit and loss under different market circumstances including default contagion.
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Wang, Sijing. "Counterparty risk nodelling of fixed income derivatives." Thesis, University of Reading, 2017. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78071/.
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The interdependency between the evolution of counterparty credit quality and the underlying risk factor(s) driving the value of a derivative contract has led to wrong way/right way risk, which could have a significant impact on the exposure and CVA profiles of OTC derivatives portfolios. Traditional approaches in modelling counterparty credit risk are mainly classified into Merton-type structural models and reduced form models. However, the former suffers from the drawback that the default probabilities generated from the model are not consistent with the market implied ones while the latter fails to offer a reasonable economic rationale and is of limited asset-credit correlation structures. This thesis is dedicated to the modelling of wrong way/right way risk of fixed income derivatives based on the Bessel bridge approach proposed by Davis and Pistorius (2010). I begin with a brief review of the existing literature on counterparty credit risk modelling with a focus on structural and reduced-form approaches and pointing out the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. Then in the second part of the thesis, we go through the technical details of inverse first-passage time problem of the credit index process and Bessel bridge approach. We apply the unilateral version of the default framework to an FX-Hull-White hybrid setting for the exchange rate and correlated interest rates to establish a joint FX-credit unilateral default model. An extension to the bilateral version of the joint FX-credit default model without identifying the joint distribution density function of the two credit index processes conditional on default is presented in the third part of the thesis and extensive numerical analysis are conducted in the expected positive exposure profiles of a cross currency swap contract for various sets of FX-credit and default correlation scenarios. The impact of wrong way/right way risk illustrated are plausible. For the final main topic of thesis, we work on CVA of Bermudan swaptions. A multi-curve interest rate framework with stochastic basis spreads are developed, into which the unilateral Bessel bridge approach based joint interest rate-credit model is integrated and least-square Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to compute CVA with the presence of wrong way/right way risk.
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Hegre, Håvard. "Interest rate modeling with applications to counterparty risk." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematical Sciences, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9470.
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This thesis studies the estimation of credit exposure arising from a portfolio of interest rate derivatives. The estimation is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results are compared to the exposure obtained under the current exposure method provided by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). We show that the simulation method provides a much richer set of information for credit risk managers. Also, depending on the current exposure and the nature of the transactions, the BIS method can fail to account for potential exposure. All test portfolios benefit significantly from a netting agreement, but the BIS approach tends to overestimate the risk reduction due to netting. In addition we examine the impact of antithetic variates and different time-discretizations. We find that a discretization based on derivatives' start and maturity dates may reduce simulation time significantly without loosing generality in exposure profiles. Antithetic variates have a small effect.
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Nguyen, Tuyet Mai. "Malliavin calculus for Markov chains and counterparty risk." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015EVRY0022/document.
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Cette thèse traite de deux domaines d’analyse stochastique et de mathématiques financières: le calcul Malliavin pour chaînes de Markov (Partie I) et le risque de contrepartie (Partie II). La partie I a pour objectif l’étude du calcul Malliavin pour chaînes de Markov en temps continu. Il y est présenté deux points : démontrer l’existence de la densité pour les solutions d’une équation différentielle stochastique et calculer les sensibilités des produits dérivés. La partie II traite de sujets d’actualité dans le domaine du risque de marché, à savoir les XVA (ajustements de prix) et la modélisation multi-courbeThis thesis deals with two areas of stochastic analysis and mathematical finance: Malliavin calculus for Markov chains (Part I) and counterparty risk (Part II). Part I is devoted to the study of Malliavin calculus for continuous-time Markov chains, in two respects: proving the existence of a density for the solution of a stochastic differential equation and computing sensitivities of financial derivatives. Part II addresses topical issues in interest rates and credit, namely XVA (pricing adjustments) and multicurve modeling
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Lundström, Love, and Oscar Öhman. "Backtesting of simulated method for Counterparty Credit Risk." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-173284.
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After the financial crisis of 2008 regulators found that the derivative market, where financial institutions traded OTC derivatives with each other, played a significantrole in triggering the crisis. This led to the emergence of Counterparty Credit Risk(CCR) which is used to measure the exposure banks have to their counterparties. In simple terms CCR is a mix of Market and Credit risk which defines the risk that your counter party will go into bankruptcy. CCR involves the risk factors used in market risk since all of the derivatives are based on underlying assets such as interest rate and currencies. The thesis will focus on how one can backtest individual risk factors driving the value of OTC derivatives. We will present different Monte Carlo simulation techniques that are being used to simulate and represent all possible future outcomes for the risk factors. In order to better understand the performance of a chosen model and how to adjust the calibration window for the ingoing parameters, two different approaches are presented,Quantitative Backtesting and Statistical Backtesting. As an extension to this, a portfolio of interest rate Swaps are backtested whose value are driven by the evolution of the underlying risk factors. The backtesting ofthe portfolio is done with netting. The time horizon for the backtesting procedureis 2010-2020 giving the user up to 261 independent observations with a forecast length of 14 days. Both of the backtesting methods provide the practitioner with a graphical results guiding the user to choose an appropriate model and calibration method for simulating the risk factors. We found that a combination of the two approaches provides the best result. Hence, no backtesting method is superior the other. Instead they complement each other and should be used simultaneously. Using the two backtesting methods one can find a model that perfectly fit the underlying distribution of risk factors, theoretically. However, one should be careful since there will always be uncertainty about the future and there is no guarantee that tomorrow will follow historical evolution exactly.
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Wu, Dong Li. "Density models and applications to counterparty credit risk." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013EVRY0035/document.
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Cette thèse porte sur les modèles à densité pour les temps de défaut et leur application au risque de crédit et de contrepartie. La première partie est une contribution théorique à l'étude des projections sur différentes filtrations de la densité de Radon-Nikodym, sous la forme d'exponentielle de Doléans-Dade, intervenant lors de changements de mesure. Le résultat principal est la caractérisation des changements de mesure qui préservent l'immersion, obtenue par application de nos formules de projection. La deuxième partie a pour objet une dynamisation informationnelle du modèle de copule gaussienne statique appliqué à un portefeuille de crédit, pouvant être vue comme un modèle à densité permettant de traîter de la couverture des CDO par CDS ou bien du risque de contrepartie sur les dérivés de crédit. Les principales contributions sont l'introduction de la perspective dynamique , qui permet de donner une justification théorique aux bump-sensibilités de copule gaussienne utilisées par les praticiens, et l'application aux calculs de CVA sur un CDSThis thesis is about density models of default times and applications to credit and counterparty risk. The rest part is a theoretical contribution to the study of projections on different filtrations of the Radon-Nikodym density of a measure change. The main result is a characterization of the measure changes preserving immersion in a density setup, obtained by application of our projection formulas. The second part is about an informational dynamization of the Gaussian copula model of portfolio credit risk, resulting in a density model of default times suitable to del with dynamic issues such as hedging of CDO through CDS or counterparty risk on credit derivatives. Here the main contributions are the introduction of the dynamic perspective, which allows one to give a theoretical justification to the Gaussian copula bump sensitivities used by practioners, and the application to CVA computations on CDS
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Øvergaard, Hans Michael. "Simulation of counterparty risk in the Norwegian financial market." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematical Sciences, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9449.
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This work will study different methods to estimate counterparty credit risk, where the methods represent both analytical approximation and simulation based method. The somewhat more analytical approximation that will be used is the current exposure method from the Bank for International Settlements and is based on simple add-on factor to the current market value. In the simulation part, Monte Carlo methods will be used. The paper will show that Monte Carlo methods enable estimation of the full exposure distribution as a function of time. From that distribution two measures of exposure will be used. The first use the peak at the 95% percentile and the second uses the concept of effective expected exposure. Those three alternative measures will be tested on six different portfolios. The portfolios are based on real data and represent both private persons, small companies, life insurance, investment bank and some of more academic interest. The estimate of exposure in those portfolios will be estimated with and without the establishment of netting agreements in order to see how that affects the exposure. The numerical results indicate that netting results in reduced exposure. In the comparisons between the different exposure measures the results show that the simulation based method in general estimates a lower exposure, but it depends intently on the construction of the portfolio. Based on those observations the main conclusion is that a simulation based approach is preferable since it enables better risk control within the firm as a consequence of enabling anatomizes of the evolution of exposure through time. Keywords: Counterparty Credit Risk, Libor Market Model and Monte Carlo simulation
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Chan, Ka Leong. "The firm value pricing models with counterparty default risk." Thesis, University of Macau, 2006. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636799.
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Mendoza, Noriega Maria Teresa. "Alternatives to protect the OTC market againist counterparty risk." Thesis, Universidad de las Américas Puebla, 2012. http://catarina.udlap.mx/u_dl_a/tales/documentos/lni/mendoza_n_mt/.
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This thesis assesses the implications that netting practices, collateralization and centralization of the risk in Central Counterparties (CCPs) have on the structure of Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivative market and determine when those practices are plausible alternatives to protect OTC market against counterparty risk.
Benefits and disadvantages are addressed from a general and a specific perspective. The general scope discusses the positive and negative implications that affect the structure of OTC derivative market as a whole, while the specific scope include the direct implications for market participants from a narrower point of view.
The theoretical framework is based mainly on literature from books, journal papers, regulative approaches from financial authorities and statistical data from the BIS and ISDA. The outcomes from the three assessments are:
(i) Bilateral and multilateral netting is justified when the reduction of counterparty credit risk and cost advantages obtained from closing-out positions are greater than the legal risk and operational risk;
(ii) The risks and costs derived from collateral are justified when there is a clear reduction of counterparty credit risk and capital requirements; when collateral is well segregated from other companies´ assets and is liquid enough to cover exposure; and when there are already risk management practices in place that control the increase of other risks;
(iii) Centralizing risk in CCPs is justified if the reduction of counterparty risk by mutualising losses of counterparties is greater than the potential systemic risk from the centralization of trading and if the reduction of operational risk, market risk, legal risk, capital requirements, costs and time invested in management practices are greater than the potential benefits obtained in bilateral agreements outside of a CCP.
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Jonsson, Sara, and Beatrice Rönnlund. "The New Standardized Approach for Measuring Counterparty Credit Risk." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-145757.
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This study investigates the differences in calculationof exposure at default between the current exposure method (CEM) and the newstandardized approach for measuring counterparty credit risk exposures (SA-CCR)for over the counter (OTC) derivatives. The study intends to analyze theconsequence of the usage of different approaches for netting as well as the differencesin EAD between asset classes. After implementing both models and calculating EADon real trades of a Swedish commercial bank it was obvious that SA-CCR has ahigher level of complexity than its predecessor. The results from this studyindicate that SA-CCR gives a lower EAD than CEM because of the higherrecognition of netting but higher EAD when netting is not allowed. Foreignexchange derivatives are affected to a higher extent than interest ratederivatives in this particular study. Foreign exchange derivatives got lowerEAD both when netting was allowed and when netting was not allowed under SA-CCR.A change of method for calculating EAD from CEM to SA-CCR could result in lowerminimum capital requirements
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Johansson, Sam. "Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation for Counterparty Credit Risk Modeling." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-252566.
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In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation for CCR (Counterparty Credit Risk) modeling is investigated. A jump-diffusion model, Bates' model, is used to describe the price process of an asset, and the counterparty default probability is described by a stochastic intensity model with constant intensity. In combination with Monte Carlo simulation, the variance reduction technique importance sampling is used in an attempt to make the simulations more efficient. Importance sampling is used for simulation of both the asset price and, for CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment) estimation, the default time. CVA is simulated for both European and Bermudan options. It is shown that a significant variance reduction can be achieved by utilizing importance sampling for asset price simulations. It is also shown that a significant variance reduction for CVA simulation can be achieved for counterparties with small default probabilities by employing importance sampling for the default times. This holds for both European and Bermudan options. Furthermore, the regression based method least squares Monte Carlo is used to estimate the price of a Bermudan option, resulting in CVA estimates that lie within an interval of feasible values. Finally, some topics of further research are suggested.I denna rapport undersöks Monte Carlo-simuleringar för motpartskreditrisk. En jump-diffusion-modell, Bates modell, används för att beskriva prisprocessen hos en tillgång, och sannolikheten att motparten drabbas av insolvens beskrivs av en stokastisk intensitetsmodell med konstant intensitet. Tillsammans med Monte Carlo-simuleringar används variansreduktionstekinken importance sampling i ett försök att effektivisera simuleringarna. Importance sampling används för simulering av både tillgångens pris och, för estimering av CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment), tidpunkten för insolvens. CVA simuleras för både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Det visas att en signifikant variansreduktion kan uppnås genom att använda importance sampling för simuleringen av tillgångens pris. Det visas även att en signifikant variansreduktion för CVA-simulering kan uppnås för motparter med små sannolikheter att drabbas av insolvens genom att använda importance sampling för simulering av tidpunkter för insolvens. Detta gäller både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Vidare, används regressionsmetoden least squares Monte Carlo för att estimera priset av en Bermuda-option, vilket resulterar i CVA-estimat som ligger inom ett intervall av rimliga värden. Slutligen föreslås några ämnen för ytterligare forskning.
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Ibelli, Rodrigo Trintino. "Wrong-way risk in stock swaps: measuring counterparty credit risk and CVA." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13993.
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A stock swap transaction is an alternative way for a company who want to enter into a long position on its own stocks or who intend to set up a repurchase program without having to dispose of cash or contract a loan, or even hedging against increases on its stock prices. In this swap transaction the company receives the return on its own stock, whilst paying a fixed or floating interest rate. However, this kind of swap presents wrong-way risk, that is, a positive dependence between the underlying asset and the counterparty’s default probability, which must be considered by dealers when pricing this kind of swap contracts. In this work we propose a model for incorporating dependence between default probabilities and the counterparty’s exposure in the calculation of the CVA for these kind of swaps. We use a Cox process to model default times, given that the stochastic default intensity follows a CIR model, and assuming that the factor driving the underlying stock price and the factor driving the default intensity are jointly given by a bivariate standard Gaussian distribution. We analyze the impact on CVA of incorporating wrong-way risk in this kind of swap transaction with different counterparties, and for different maturities and dependence levels.
Uma forma interessante para uma companhia que pretende assumir uma posição comprada em suas próprias ações ou lançar futuramente um programa de recompra de ações, mas sem precisar dispor de caixa ou ter que contratar um empréstimo, ou então se protegendo de uma eventual alta no preço das ações, é através da contratação de um swap de ações. Neste swap, a companhia fica ativa na variação de sua própria ação enquanto paga uma taxa de juros pré ou pós-fixada. Contudo, este tipo de swap apresenta risco wrong-way, ou seja, existe uma dependência positiva entre a ação subjacente do swap e a probabilidade de default da companhia, o que precisa ser considerado por um banco ao precificar este tipo de swap. Neste trabalho propomos um modelo para incorporar a dependência entre probabilidades de default e a exposição à contraparte no cálculo do CVA para este tipo de swap. Utilizamos um processo de Cox para modelar o instante de ocorrência de default, dado que a intensidade estocástica de default segue um modelo do tipo CIR, e assumindo que o fator aleatório presente na ação subjacente e que o fator aleatório presente na intensidade de default são dados conjuntamente por uma distribuição normal padrão bivariada. Analisamos o impacto no CVA da incorporação do riscowrong-way para este tipo de swap com diferentes contrapartes, e para diferentes prazos de vencimento e níveis de correlação.
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Fonseca, Vladimir João de Oliveira Lopes Dias da. "Counterparty and Liquidity Risk : an analysis of the negative basis." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4630.
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Mestrado em FinançasIn this study we analyse the equivalence between credit default swap (CDS) spreads and corporate bond yield spreads from March 2007 to March 2011 for investment graded corporate entities in the eurozone. We find evidence of cointegration between the two markets and that CDS prices tends to lead corporate yield spreads. We find support for significant effects of counterparty and funding risks in the basis, measured as the difference between CDS and corporate yield spreads, with negative impact, and that liquidity also matters in this context.
No contexto da relação teórica de equilíbrio entre os preços dos CDS e as yield spreads das obrigações das empresas face a taxas de juro sem risco, este trabalho conclui que existe cointegração entre estas duas variáveis para entidades de referência na zona euro no período que decorre entre Março de 2007 e Março de 2011. A análise efectuada revelou que o risco de contraparte e o risco de liquidez em ambos os mercados tiveram um impacto significativo na base, entre os CDS e os referidos spreads, e que os preços dos CDS tenderam a liderar as yield spreads das obrigações no período em análise.
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Nowicki, Pierre. "Counterparty credit risk under credit risk contagion using time-homogeneous phase-type distribution." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/33778.
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With the current situation of credit spread contagion illustrated by the European sovereign bonds crisis and the chain reaction triggered by the derivatives books of Lehman Brothers, financial institutions have increasingly focused on pricing and risk management of counterparty credit risk. Recent credit contagion through financial contingent claims highlight the fact that contagion links impact the value of products when investors are exposed to counterparty risk. This thesis plan to build on reduced-form credit risk models to assess the credit risk contagion that is inherent in a obligor multivariate framework. The aim is to evaluate the requirements that are necessary in generating a mathematical framework consistent with the valuation of financial claims, credit and non-credit related, where the parties of those claims exhibit credit risk contagion. By applying a multivariate framework of credit contagion to counterparty credit risk based on a queueing theory, called phase-type distribution, we hope to highlight the benefit of bottom-up models versus top-down ones in terms of extracting information relative to dependence within an identi able obligor set. We will review the mathematical literature in addressing credit dependence modelling in dynamic and static format. This will be the opportunity to value a set of claims under our model to show that claims that contain "credit leverage" are particularly sensible to credit risk contagion and could benefit from our developed framework to gain adequate counterparty credit risk pricing.
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Zargari, Behnaz. "Le risque de crédit et les produits dérivés de crédit : modélisation mathématique et numérique." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011EVRY0004.
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Cette thèse traite de la modélisation des dérivés de crédit et se compose de deux parties: La première partie concerne le modèle à densité, récemment proposé par El Karoui et al. où on fait l'hypothèse que la loi conditionnelle de temps de défaut sachant la filtration référence est équivalente à sa loi (non-conditionnelle). Sous cette hypothèse, nous donnons des démonstrations différentes (et plus simples) aux résultats déjà existant dans la théorie du grossissement initial et progressif des filtrations. En outre, nous présentons de nouveaux résultats comme par exemple le théorème de représentation prévisible pour la filtration progressivement grossie dans le cas multidimensionnel. Nous proposons ensuite plusieurs méthodes pour construire des modèles à densité, dans les cas unidimensionnel et multidimensionnel. Enfin, nous montrons que le modèle à densité est une approche efficace pour la couverture dynamique de produits dérivés de crédit multi-name. Dans la deuxième partie, afin d'étudier le risque de contrepartie dans un contrat de CDS, nous avons proposé un modèle markovien dans lequel des défauts simultanés sont possibles. Le wrong-way risk est donc représenté par le fait que, à moment de la défaillance de la contrepartie, il y a une probabilité strictement positive pour que l'entité de référence fasse défaut aussi. Nous commençons par considérer une chaîne de Markov à quatre états correspondant à deux noms; Dans ce cas simple, nous obtenons des formules semi-explicites pour la plupart des quantités importantes, comme le prix, la CVA, l’EPE ou les ratios de couverture. Nous généralisons ensuite ce cadre pour tenir compte du risque de spread en introduisant des facteurs stochastiques; nous traitons un modèle copule Markovien avec des intensités stochastiques. Nous abordons également la question de la couverture dynamique du CVA avec un CDS écrit sur la contrepartie. Pour l'implémentation du modèle, nous spécifions les intensités par des processus affines, ce qui compte tenu de la propriété copule dynamique du modèle, rend la calibration de ce modèle efficace. Les résultats numériques sont présentés pour montrer la pertinence du comportement de la CVA dans le modèle avec les faits stylisés du marchéThis thesis deals with credit derivatives modeling and consists of two parts: The first part concerns the density model, recently proposed by El Karoui et al., where the standing assumption is that the conditional law of default time given the reference filtration is equivalent to its (non-conditional) law. Under this assumption, we provide alternative (and simpler) proofs for some existing results in the theory of initial and progressive enlargement of filtrations. Also, we present some new results such as the predictable representation theorem for progressively enlarged filtration in the multidimensional case. We then propose several methods to construct density models, in both one-dimensional and multidimensional cases. Finally, we show that the density model is an efficient approach for dynamic hedging of multi-name credit derivatives. In the second part, a Markov model is constructed for studying the counterparty risk in a CDS contract. The wrong-way risk in this model is accounted for by the possibility of the simultaneous default of the reference name and of the counterparty. We start by considering a Markov chain model of two reference credits, the firm underlying the CDS and the protection seller in the CDS. In this set-up, we have semi-explicit formulae for most quantities of interest with regard to CDS counterparty risk like price, CVA, EPE or hedging strategies. We then generalize this framework to account for the spread risk by introducing stochastic factors, so that, we deal with a Markov copula model with stochastic intensities. We also address the issue of dynamically hedging the CVA with a CDS written on the counterparty. For model implementation, we consider three different affine specification of the intensities, which in view of the dynamic copula property of the model, make calibration very efficient. Numerical results are presented to show the adequacy of the behavior of CVA in the model with stylized features
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Pörn, Sebastian, and Arvid Rönnblom. "Assesing counterparty risk classification using transition matrices : Comparing models' predictive ability." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-136667.
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An important part when managing credit risk is to assess the probability of default of different counterparties. Increases and decreases in such probabil- ities are central components in the assessment, and this is where transition matrices become useful. These matrices are commonly used tools when as- sessing counterparty credit risk, and contain the probability of default, as well as the probability to migrate between different predefined rating classifica- tions. These rating classifications are used to reflect the risk taken towards different counterparties. Therefore, it is important for financial institutions to develop accurate transition matrix models to manage predicted changes in credit risk exposure. This is because counterparty creditworthiness and prob- ability of default indirectly affect expected loss and the capital requirement of held capital. This thesis will analyze how two specific models perform when used for generating transition matrices. These models will be tested to investigate their performance when predicting rating transitions, including probability of default.En viktig del vid hanteringen av kreditrisk är att bedöma sannolikheten för fallissemang för olika motparter. Ökningar och minskningar i dessa sanno- likheter är centrala komponenter i bedömningen, och det är här migrations- matriser blir användbara. Dessa matriser är vanligt förekommande verktyg vid bedömning av kreditrisk mot olika motparter och innehåller sannolikheten för fallissemang samt sannolikheten att migrera mellan olika fördefinierade be- tygsklassificeringar. Dessa betygsklassificeringar används för att återspegla den risk som tas mot olika motparter. Det är därför viktigt för finansinstitut att utveckla träffsäkra migrationsmatris modeller för att hantera förväntade förändringar i kreditriskexponering. Detta beror på att kreditvärdigheten hos motparter samt sannolikheten för fallissemang indirekt påverkar expected loss och kapitalkrav. Detta examensarbete kommer att analysera hur två specifika modeller presterar när de används för att generera migrationsmatriser. Dessa mod- eller kommer att testas för att undersöka hur de presterar när de används för att förutsäga övergångar inom betygsklassificering, inklusive sannolikheten för fallissemang.
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Kechagioglou, Ioannis. "Stochastic models of default intensity for derivatives and counterparty risk valuation." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/11790.
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Kornmann, Lauren. "Evaluating financial risk with investment guidelines." Thesis, Kansas State University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/34149.
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Master of AgribusinessDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Allen M. Featherstone
Cash management practices for corporate treasurers are in a state of instability in recent years. Events during the credit crisis of 2008 have had an impact on how organization’s cash positions are managed. This has led corporate treasurers to juggle unprecedented amounts of cash across multiple bank counterparties and invest these funds based on previous investment policies with potentially inflexible limits. Many regulations have been passed to strengthen domestic and global financial systems, yet the risk of default is not completely removed and there are many uncertain ties that corporates face. To succeed in the uncertain financial environment, counterparty risk tools must be put in place to improve the visibility of potential operational risk, along with a higher frequency of reviewing and updating investment policies. It is crucial for corporates to look beyond the traditional market perceptions and bank credit ratings to evaluate counterparty risk. Although these continue to be a valuable metric, they should be incorporated with other forward looking market risk metrics such as credit default swaps, capital and asset resiliency metrics, and growth and profitability metrics to their current investment guidelines review. By integrating risk metrics to help formulate an investment policy, corporates can adapt to the changing financial environment. This thesis examined methodologies to develop a more accurate and immediate viewpoint of counterparty creditworthiness. This was done through the creation of models using market information to set values to view the strength of counterparties and the likelihood of default. Models were created for both financial institutions and countries where cash or investments are placed. Depending on the models, this restricts the permissible investment options that an institution or country has. This approach allows the company to invest more with higher rated counterparties, and sets a maximum to those who are deemed high risk of default. The findings of this thesis identified that it is crucial to classify the right metrics and look beyond traditional market perceptions and bank credit ratings. By implementing a balanced process that regularly monitors current market indicators of counterparty risk, an organization will be in a stronger position to define and determine the potential risk. This creates a balanced view of both backward looking and forward looking metrics such as long term debt ratings and credit default swaps. These metrics were useful indicators of a counterparty’s strength. Because of the wide range of information available and cost, it went beyond the resources of the company to perform detailed ongoing analysis. It was also identified that a risk-adjusted approach to setting counterparty limits is crucial for managing counterparty exposure and the risk of default. To optimize liquidity, it is in the company’s best interest to place higher balances in institutions with the lowest risk of default. Grouping banks into tiers and assigning a percentage of total balance to each tier allows for financial institutions to have a specific limit capacity. Incorporating these tools on a frequent basis allows for real-time analysis of counterparty exposure and risk.
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Hellander, Martin. "Credit Value Adjustment: The Aspects of Pricing Counterparty Credit Risk on Interest Rate Swaps." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-173225.
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In this thesis, the pricing of counterparty credit risk on an OTC plain vanilla interest rate swap is investigated. Counterparty credit risk can be defined as the risk that a counterparty in a financial contract might not be able or willing to fulfil their obligations. This risk has to be taken into account in the valuation of an OTC derivative. The market price of the counterparty credit risk is known as the Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). In a bilateral contract, such as a swap, the party’s own creditworthiness also has to be taken into account, leading to another adjustment known as the Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Since 2013, the international accounting standards (IFRS) states that these adjustments have to be done in order to reflect the fair value of an OTC derivative. A short background and the derivation of CVA and DVA is presented, including related topics like various risk mitigation techniques, hedging of CVA, regulations etc.. Four different pricing frameworks are compared, two more sophisticated frameworks and two approximative approaches. The most complex framework includes an interest rate model in form of the LIBOR Market Model and a credit model in form of the Cox-Ingersoll- Ross model. In this framework, the impact of dependencies between credit and market risk factors (leading to wrong-way/right-way risk) and the dependence between the default time of different parties are investigated.I den här uppsatsen har prissättning av motpartsrisk för en OTC ränteswap undersökts. Motpartsrisk kan definieras som risken att en motpart i ett finansiellt kontrakt inte har möjlighet eller viljan att fullfölja sin del av kontraktet. Motpartsrisken måste tas med I värderingen av ett OTC-derivat. Marknadspriset på motpartrisken är känt som Credit Value Adjustment (CVA). I ett bilateralt kontrakt, t.ex. som en swap, måste även den egna kreditvärdighet tas med i värderingen, vilket leder till en justering som är känd som Debit Value Adjustment (DVA). Sedan 2013 skall, enligt den internationella redovisningsstandarden (IFRS), dessa prisjusteringar göras vid redovisningen av värdet för ett OTC derivat. En kort bakgrund samt härledningen av CVA och DVA ar presenterade tillsammans med relaterade ämnen. Fyra olika metoder för att beräkna CVA har jämförts, två mer sofistikerade metoder och två approximativa metoder. I den mest avancerade metoden används en räntemodell i form av LIBOR Market Model samt en kreditmodell i form av en Cox-Ingersoll-Ross modell. I den här metoden undersöks även påverkan av CVA då det existerar beroenden mellan marknads
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Schwake, Daniel [Verfasser], and Antje [Akademischer Betreuer] Mahayni. "Market and Counterparty Credit Risk : Selected Computational and Managerial Aspects / Daniel Schwake. Betreuer: Antje Mahayni." Duisburg, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1109745540/34.
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Sturn, Raphael Christian Benedikt [Verfasser], and Rainer [Akademischer Betreuer] Schöbel. "The Valuation of Option Contracts subject to Counterparty Risk / Raphael Christian Benedikt Sturn ; Betreuer: Rainer Schöbel." Tübingen : Universitätsbibliothek Tübingen, 2019. http://d-nb.info/120227157X/34.
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Kratochwil, Michael [Verfasser], and Daniel [Akademischer Betreuer] Rösch. "Measuring Counterparty Risk - Development of innovative Methods in Light of Regulatory Reforms / Michael Kratochwil ; Betreuer: Daniel Rösch." Regensburg : Universitätsbibliothek Regensburg, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1220908630/34.
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Kallur, Oskar. "On the use of Value-at-Risk based models for the Fixed Income market as a risk measure for Central Counterparty clearing." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187464.
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In this thesis the use of VaR based models are investigated for the purpose of setting margin requirements for Fixed Income portfolios. VaR based models has become one of the standard ways for Central Counterparties to determine the margin requirements for different types of portfolios. However there are a lot of different ways to implement a VaR based model in practice, especially for Fixed Income portfolios. The models presented in this thesis are based on Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS). Furthermore a model that combines FHS with a Student’s t copula to model the correlation between instruments in a portfolio is presented. All models are backtested using historical data dating from 1998 to 2016. The FHS models seems to produce reasonably accurate VaR estimates. However there are other market related properties that must be fulfilled for a model to be used to set margin requirements. These properties are investigated and discussed.I denna uppsats undersöks användningen av VaR baserade modeller för att sätta marginkrav för Fixed Income portföljer. VaR baserade modeller har blivit en standardmetod för Central Counterparties för att räkna ut marginkrav för olika typer av portföljer. Det finns många olika tillvägagångssätt för att räkna ut VaR i praktiken, speciellt för Fixed Income portföljer. Modellerna som presenteras i den här uppsatsen är baserade på Filterad Historisk Simulering (FHS). Dessutom presenteras en modell som kombinerar FHS med en Student’s t copula för att modellera korrelationen mellan olika instrument. Alla modeller backtestas på historisk data från 1998 till 2016. Modellerna ger rimliga VaR skattningar i backtesterna. Däremot finns det andra marknadsrelaterade egenskaper som en modell måste uppfylla för att kunna användas för att sätta margin. Dessa egenskaper undersöks och diskuteras.
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Šedivý, Jan. "Vliv rizika protistrany na oceňování derivátů a jeho dopady na chování bank." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-205440.
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In the thesis we analyse changes in derivatives valuation after the financial crisis and their impact on behaviour of financial institutions. We focus mainly on the changes related to counterparty credit risk and valuation adjustments. We describe in economical terms the relationship between counterparty credit risk and traditional credit risk, we also introduce management and modelling of this risk. In second part of the study we analyse the regulatory framework, in particular new capital requirement and mandatory central clearing of OTC derivatives. We discuss inconsistencies between regulatory and internal approaches to the counterparty risk measurement and also significant systemic risk connected to central counterparties. Finally we investigate the impact of changes in derivatives valuation on banks in both the EU and the Czech Republic. Specifically we are interested in optimal approach to entering into derivative trade.
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Zhou, Tingwen. "Arbitrage-Free Pricing of XVA for American Options in Discrete Time." Digital WPI, 2017. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/348.
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Total valuation adjustment (XVA) is a new technique which takes multiple material financial factors into consideration when pricing derivatives. This paper explores how funding costs and counterparty credit risk affect pricing the American option based on no-arbitrage analysis. We review previous studies of European option pricing with different funding costs. The conclusions help to compute the no- arbitrage price of the American option in the model with different borrowing and lending rates. Another model with counterparty credit risk is set up, and this pricing approach is referred to as credit valuation adjustment (CVA). A defaultable bond issued by the counterparty is used to hedge the loss from the option's default. We incorporate these two models to assess the XVA of an American option. The collateral, which protects the option investors from default, is considered in our benchmark model. To illustrate our results, numerical experiments are designed to demonstrate the relationship between XVA and parameters, which include the funding rates, bond's rate of return, and number of periods.
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Toto, Andrea. "Three essays on liquidity and contagion." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Jaume I, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/386238.
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The present PhD thesis consists of three papers. In the 1st paper we review credit risk models and models of counterparty risk and contagion and their application in credit risk management, and compare the two primary types of models in the literature that attempt to describe default processes for debt obligations and other defaultable financial instruments , usually referred to as structural and reduced-form (or intensity) models. We discuss challenges and possible progresses to be made in closing the distance between structural and reduced-form models in modeling counterparty and credit risk, mainly inside an information based perspective , in the style of Jarrow and Protter (2004). In the 2nd paper we analyses the effects of trade credit on the investment decisions of a financially constrained firms in manufacturing supply chains. We put forward a multi-factor model of a profit maximizing firm subject to bank borrowing constraints and with three sources of funding: self-financing, bank credit and trade credit. The model is able to capture the insurance effect of trade credit, i.e. the insurance coverage against liquidity risk embedded in trade credit contracts, thanks to which a financially-constrained firm suffering a liquidity shortage can maintain a level of expected inventory investment (and, as a consequence, a future expected output level) as close as possible to the optimal desired level. The 3rd paper is a paper that studies the effects that two characteristics of the topology of a financial network , namely its degrees of connectivity and of centralization, have on the response of the network to external shocks that can generate phenomena of default contagion.La presente tesis doctoral se compone de tres artículos. En el primero artículo se revisan los modelos de riesgo de crédito y los modelos de riesgo de contraparte y contagio y su aplicación en la gestión del riesgo de crédito, y se comparan los dos tipos principales de modelos en la literatura que tratan de describir los procesos predeterminados para las obligaciones de deuda y otros instrumentos financieros que son "defaultable" (que son susceptibles de incumplimiento) ; estos modelos normalmente se conocen como modelos estructurales y de forma (o intensidad) reducida. Además, se discuten los desafíos y posibles progresos a ser alcanzados al reducir la distancia entre los modelos estructurales y de forma reducida en modelar el riesgo de contraparte y riesgo de crédito, sobre todo dentro de una perspectiva basada en la información, al estilo de Jarrow y Protter (2004). En el segundo artículo se analizan los efectos de crédito comercial en las decisiones de inversión de una empresa restringida financieramente en un sector manufacturero, con particular referencia a un contexto de turbulencias financieras y racionamiento del crédito. Con este fin, hemos presentado un modelo multifactorial de una empresa que maximiza el beneficio sujeto a las restricciones de crédito bancarias y con tres fuentes de financiación : la auto-financiación , crédito bancario y crédito comercial. El modelo es capaz de captar el efecto del seguro de crédito comercial, es decir, la cobertura de seguro contra el riesgo de liquidez implícitos en los contratos de crédito comercial , gracias a la cual una empresa financieramente restringida que sufre de una escasez de liquidez puede mantener un nivel de inversión de inventario esperado (y, como en consecuencia , un futuro nivel de producción esperado) lo más cerca posible al nivel óptimo deseado. El tercero artículo es un artículo que estudia los efectos que dos características de la topología de una red financiera, es decir sus grados de conectividad y de centralización, tienen en la respuesta de la red a los choques externos que pueden generar fenómenos de "default contagion".
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Neves, Ricardo Filipe Godinho Miranda das. "Clearing Credit Default Swaps : an new look into the basis." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7864.
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Mestrado em Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças EmpresariaisEste estudo pretende analisar se períodos de turbulência nos mercados financeiros causaram uma quebra de estrutura na relação entre os spreads dos CDS e das Obrigações (Base). Obtivémos evidência que um largo número de quebras de estrutura foi detectado para as empresas incluídas na amostra durante o período da crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Para além disso, o efeito do risco de contra parte na base revelou ter também um maior impacto nas empresas do sector financeiro no período após a quebra de estrutura detectada.
This study aims to analyse whether periods of financial turmoil caused the relation between CDS and corporate bond spreads (CDS-Bond basis) to structurally break. We obtained evidence that a higher number of breaks were detected during the European sovereign debt crisis for the firms included in the sample. Besides, firm specific counterparty risk effect on the basis revealed also to have stronger impact on financial firms in the after-break period.
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Gomes, Rui Miguel Campos. "O papel dos CDS na (in)estabilidade do mercado financeiro." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/11118.
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Mestrado em FinançasO mercado de credit default swaps (CDS) tem crescido exponencialmente nos últimos tempos até à crise de 2008-2010, tendo encontrado aí um entrave ao seu crescimento. Embora este instrumento seja um dos derivados mais negociados, é transacionado em mercado over-the-counter, o que reflete uma falta de controlo e transparência. A análise efetuada neste estudo é sobre a implementação de mecanismos de mitigação de risco, controlo de contágio e risco de contraparte. Esta análise é efetuada através da análise da base dos CDS tendo em conta a utilização do yield spread das obrigações analisadas. O período em análise decorre entre Março de 2007 e Junho de 2013, período que contempla a crise financeira e a crise de dívida soberana.
The market for credit default swaps (CDS) has grown exponentially in recent times to the crisis of 2008-2010, and found there an obstacle to their growth. Although this instrument is one of the most traded derivative is traded in the over-the-counter, which reflects a lack of control and transparency. The analysis performed in this study is on the implementation of risk mitigation mechanisms, control of contagion and counterparty risk. This analysis is carried out through analysis of the CDS basis taking into account the use of yield spread of bonds analyzed. The review period is between March 2007 and June 2013, a period that includes the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis.
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Lundström, Edvin. "On the Proxy Modelling of Risk-Neutral Default Probabilities." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273624.
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Since the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008, it has become increasingly important to measure, manage and price the default risk in financial derivatives. Default risk in financial derivatives is referred to as counterparty credit risk (CCR). The price of CCR is captured in Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA). This adjustment should in principle always enter the valuation of a derivative traded over-the-counter (OTC). To calculate CVA, one needs to know the probability of default of the counterparty. Since CVA is a price, what one needs is the risk-neutral probability of default. The typical way of obtaining risk-neutral default probabilities is to build credit curves calibrated using Credit Default Swaps (CDS). However, for a majority of a bank's counterparties there are no CDSs liquidly traded. This constitutes a major challenge. How does one model the risk-neutral default probability in the absence of observable CDS spreads? A number of methods for constructing proxy credit curves have been proposed previously. A particularly popular choice is the so-called Nomura (or cross-section) model. In studying this model, we find some weaknesses, which in some instances lead to degenerate proxy credit curves. In this thesis we propose an altered model, where the modelling quantity is changed from the CDS spread to the hazard rate. This ensures that the obtained proxy curves are valid by construction. We find that in practice, the Nomura model in many cases gives degenerate proxy credit curves. We find no such issues for the altered model. In some cases, we see that the differences between the models are minor. The conclusion is that the altered model is a better choice since it is theoretically sound and robust.Sedan Lehman Brothers konkurs 2008 har det blivit allt viktigare att mäta, hantera och prissätta kreditrisken i finansiella derivat. Kreditrisk i finansiella derivat benämns ofta motpartsrisk (CCR). Priset på motpartsrisk fångas i kreditvärderingsjustering (CVA). Denna justering bör i princip alltid ingå i värderingen av ett derivat som handlas över disk (eng. over-the-counter, OTC). För att beräkna CVA behöver man veta sannolikheten för fallissemang (konkurs) hos motparten. Eftersom CVA är ett pris, behöver man den riskneutrala sannolikheten för fallissemang. Det typiska tillvägagångsättet för att erhålla riskneutrala sannolikheter är att bygga kreditkurvor kalibrerade med hjälp av kreditswappar (CDS:er). För en majoritet av en banks motparter finns emellertid ingen likvid handel i CDS:er. Detta utgör en stor utmaning. Hur ska man modellera riskneutrala fallissemangssannolikheter vid avsaknad av observerbara CDS-spreadar? Ett antal metoder för att konstruera proxykreditkurvor har föreslagits tidigare. Ett särskilt populärt val är den så kallade Nomura- (eller cross-section) modellen. När vi studerar denna modell hittar vi ett par svagheter, som i vissa fall leder till degenererade proxykreditkurvor. I den här uppsatsen föreslår vi en förändrad modell, där den modellerade kvantiteten byts från CDS-spreaden till riskfrekvensen (eng. hazard rate). Därmed säkerställs att de erhållna proxykurvorna är giltiga, per konstruktion. Vi finner att Nomura-modellen i praktiken i många fall ger degenererade proxykreditkurvor. Vi finner inga sådana problem för den förändrade modellen. I andra fall ser vi att skillnaderna mellan modellerna är små. Slutsatsen är att den förändrade modellen är ett bättre val eftersom den är teoretiskt sund och robust.
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Sayah, Mabelle. "Understanding some new Basel III implementation issues for Lebanese Commercial Banks." Thesis, Lyon, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LYSE1150/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est de fournir à la banque Audi un outil à jour sur les façons de calculer le capital requis par Bâle pour certains risques financiers présents dans le portefeuille de la banque. La régulation internationale est en développement continu : des nouvelles approches sont proposées afin de couvrir au mieux les risques du marché et du secteur bancaire. Les crises financières récentes étaient à la base de ces réformes. De plus, la Banque Audi opère sur des marchés qui présentent des caractères spécifiques qu'il faut prendre en considération lors du calcul du capital requis. Cette thèse se concentre sur le risque de taux d'intérêt dans le livre de négociation de la banque, le risque de contrepartie et précisément l'ajustement d'évaluation de crédit tout en incorporant l'impact de la corrélation entre la qualité du crédit de la contrepartie et l'exposition prévue envers cette même contrepartie. La première partie de cette thèse traite de la nouvelle méthodologie suggérée par Bâle sur le Trading Book : Fundamental Review of the Trading Book. Le risque de taux d'intérêt est particulièrement analysé en utilisant la méthode standard, Sensitivity Based Approach (SBA), et des méthodes plus 'traditionnelles' de valeur à risque tout en utilisant différents modèles tels que Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), l'Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP), l'Analyse en composantes indépendantes (ACI) et la version dynamique du modèle de taux de Nelson Siegel (DNS). Une application sur des portefeuilles d'obligations zéro coupons de différentes devises permet d'identifier la diversification des résultats entre les marchés stables européens (comme la France), moins stables (exemple Etats-Unis) et les marchés émergents (tel la Turquie). La deuxième partie est consacrée au risque de Contrepartie. Récemment, un nouveau capital est requis par les normes de Bâle afin de couvrir ce genre de risque. En 2014, la méthode est publiée : Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). On applique cette méthode sur différents types de produits dérivés afin de comparer le capital demandé par cette approche à celui obtenu par les modèles internes. Les modèles internes incorporent les estimations historiques ainsi que les projections futures du marché tout en se basant sur des modèles bien connus tels que Vasicek et GARCH. Plusieurs structures de hedging sont mises en place afin de mesurer l'impact de chacune sur les deux montants de capitaux requis (sous la méthode standard ou l'IMM). L'effet sur des produits en EUR et USD reflété que le modèle interne demande 80% du capital standard quand aucune stratégie de hedging n'est mise en place. Par contre, le hedging semble être beaucoup plus favorisé par le modèle standard que le modèle interne. La troisième partie est toujours sur le risque de Contrepartie, mais se focalise sur l'ajustement d'´évaluation de crédit (CVA). Ce sujet ne faisait pas partie des capitaux requis sauf récemment. A cause de son grand impact durant les récentes crises financières. Dès lors, si une opération avec des produits dérivés ne passe pas par une central clearing houses, un capital pour le CVA est requis. Dans ce travail, on détaille les méthodes acceptées par Bâle afin de calculer ces capitaux et on les compare entre elles. La comparaison se fait en se basant sur des portefeuilles de swap de taux d'intérêts avec, comme contreparties, différents pays d'Investment Grade. Cet article incorpore en plus l'impact de la corrélation entre la détérioration de la qualité de la contrepartie et l'augmentation de l'exposition prévue avec cette contrepartie connue sous le nom de WrongWay Risk : des modèles de correction d'erreurs (ECM) sont mis en place afin de déterminer ce lien. Les résultats permettent de montrer l'importance d'utiliser les CDS des contreparties et non de se limiter à leur note (Investment Grade ou pas)This thesis aims at providing Bank Audi with an updated tool to understand and investigate in given risk types encountered in their portfolios and the way Basel suggests computing their capital charges. International regulator is constantly changing and modifying previously used approaches to enhance the reflection of the market and banking sector risks. The recent financial crisis played a major role in these reforms, in addition the situation of Bank Audi and the markets it is operating in, represent certain specifications that should be accounted for. The work handles interest rate risk in the trading book, Counterparty Credit Risk faced with derivatives along a closer look on the Credit Valuation Adjustment topic and the incorporation of Wrong Way Risk. The first part discusses the new Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: focusing on the general interest rate risk factor, the paper compared Basel’s Sensitivity Based Approach (SBA) capital charge to more traditional approaches of VaR using several models such as Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Independent Components Analysis (ICA) and Dynamic Nelson Siegel. Application on portfolios with zero coupon bonds of different sovereigns revealed the divergence in results between stable markets (such as France and Germany), less stable (such as the USA) and emergent markets (such as Turkey). The second part is dedicated to the Counterparty Credit Risk. A new capital charge methodology was proposed by Basel and set as a standard rule in 2014: the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Applying this approach on different derivatives portfolios, we compared it to internal models. The internal methodologies incorporated historical estimations and future projections based on Vasicek and GARCH models. Different hedging cases were investigated on EUR and USD portfolios. The impact of each hedging technique and the difference between IMM and the standardized methods were highlighted in this work: without hedging, the internal approach amends 80% of the standardized capital whereas, in general, the hedging is encouraged more under the standardized approach relatively to its capital reduction under the internal model. The third part remains a part of the Counterparty Credit Risk however, the main focus in this work is the Credit Valuation Adjustment. This topic was neglected in terms of capital charge earlier but due to its important impact is now incorporated as a capital charge amended when no central clearing is put in place when dealing with derivatives. We focus on the regulatory approaches of capital computation, comparing both accepted approaches based on portfolios of interest rate swaps held with investment grade sovereigns. An incorporation of the Wrong Way Risk is another addition in this work: using Error Correction Models we were able to reflect the impact of the correlation between the exposure and the credit quality of the investment grade sovereign we are dealing with. Based on such results, a suggestion of a re-calibrated standardized approach is in place to encourage the use of the CDS as an indicator of the credit quality of the counterparty and not its grade (investment or not) as followed by the new Basel regulations
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Murgoci, Agatha. "Essays in mathematical finance." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Finansiell Ekonomi (FI), 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-427.
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Ahiabor, Frederick S. "Determinants of project finance loan terms." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2018. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/36313.
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Project finance has become a vital financing vehicle for undertaking capital-intensive and infrastructure investments. In 2017 alone, the value of deals signed using project finance was estimated at approximately $229 billion. Despite its increasing importance, little is known regarding the impact of project-level, and country characteristics on the loan terms. This thesis proceeds in examining these determinants along three empirical essays. The first essay (Chapter 3) focuses on how domestic lead arrangers certification (in emerging markets) impact the pricing of project finance loans. Using a sample 1270 project finance loan tranches signed between 1998 and 2011, and worth over $300 billion, the chapter posits that domestic lead arrangers certification reduce search and information cost, which in turn, reduces the financing cost. The results, after controlling for endogeneity of certification decision, indicate a reduction of 47 basis points in the spread offered on PF loans. The magnitude of this reduction differs across industries, geographic region, and income classification of the project countries. The second essay (Chapter 4) examines the relationship between PF contractual structures and loan outcomes, using a sample of 5872 project finance loan tranches signed between 1998 and 2013, and worth approximately $1.2 trillion. The chapter hypothesises that (i) non financial contracts (NFCs) (that is, contracts used to manage the various project functions), reduces overall project risk, (ii) the involvement of project sponsors as key counterparties to the non-financial contracts is an additional signal of project s potential worth, and (iii) the effects observed in (i and ii) are stronger, if sponsor counterparties have verifiable credit ratings. After matching loan tranches with NFCs to those without, the results indicate that the use of NFCs reduce both the loan spreads and leverage ratios. This impact is higher if the sponsor counterparties are credit-rated. The results are also stronger for developing countries. The third essay examines the impact of country-level institutions on project finance loan spread and leverage ratio, using a sample of 3,362 loan tranches signed between the year 1998 - 2012. The chapter investigates whether political and legal institutions are substitutes (or complements), that is, if improvement in one absorbs the weakness of the other, and vice versa. Further, the essay examines if project finance network of contracts substitutes for these institutions. The results indicate that political and legal institutions are substitutes. Specifically, improvements in political institutions lead to a reduction in both the loan spread and leverage ratio for countries with weak legal and governance institutions. The chapter also finds that where NFCs are included in PF, the impact of political institutions on loan spread reduces. On the other hand, the impact of political institutions on leverage ratio is higher when NFCs are used. The findings from the three research chapters provide interesting insights on how lenders and sponsors create value through contract design.
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Vogliotti, Rodrigo. "Mensuração da exposição no momento do default (EAD) para derivativos de balcão através da simulação de Monte Carlo." Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2012. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/627.
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Previous issue date: 2012-08-17The difficulty in developing a statistical model that includes random variables and the need for intensive data processing capacity are the main challenges for the measurement of counterparty credit risk. The need to know the exposure value at the time of default (EAD) on a derivative instrument is a decisive factor for pricing, portfolio management and capital allocation. Recent events such as the creation of innovative products, coming from the new Basel Accord (Basel II) and the credit crisis of 2007/08 reinforce the importance of knowing what the actual credit risk exposure in a particular transaction. The aim of this study was to develop models for measuring credit risk of the counterparty from the estimation of counterparty exposure to bonds, equities and forward contract through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that certain parameters such as the interest rate, the mean and standard deviation show strong linear correlation with exposure (EAD) and this issue can be an important driver for the decision-making process. In the model of forward contract was found that correlated random variables can potentiate the exposure value.
A dificuldade em desenvolver um modelo estatístico que contemple variáveis aleatórias e a necessidade de intensa capacidade para processamento de dados são os principais desafios para a mensuração do risco de crédito de contraparte. A necessidade em conhecer o valor da exposição no momento do default (EAD) em um instrumento derivativo é fator decisivo para a precificação, gestão do portfólio e alocação de capital. Recentes acontecimentos como a criação de produtos inovadores, o advindo do novo acordo de Basileia (Basileia II) e a crise de crédito de 2007/08 reforçaram a importância de se saber qual o risco de crédito efetivo que cada contraparte está exposta em uma determinada transação. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver modelos para mensuração do risco de crédito da contraparte a partir da estimação da exposição da contraparte para títulos, ações e contrato a termo de ações através da utilização da simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados da análise de sensibilidade indicam que certos parâmetros como a taxa de juro, a média e o desvio padrão apresentam forte correlação linear com a exposição (EAD) calculada e podem ser importantes direcionadores para o processo decisório. No modelo de contrato a termo de ações foi verificado que variáveis aleatórias correlacionadas potencializam o valor da exposição.
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Frey, Rüdiger, and Lars Rösler. "Contagion Effects and Collateralized Credit Value Adjustments for Credit Default Swaps." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2013. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3770/1/preprint_freyroesler.pdf.
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The paper is concerned with counterparty credit risk
management for credit default swaps in the presence of default contagion. In particular, we study the impact of default contagion on credit value adjustments such as the BCCVA (Bilateral Collateralized Credit Value Adjustment) of Brigo et al. 2012 and on the performance of various collateralization strategies. We use the incomplete-information model of Frey and Schmidt (2012) as vehicle for our analysis. We find that taking contagion effects into account is important for the effectiveness of the
strategy and we derive refined collateralization strategies to account for contagion effects. (authors' abstract)Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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Brouillou, Guerric. "La gestion du risque de contrepartie en matière des dérivés de gré à gré : approche juridique." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01D056/document.
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Au lendemain de la crise financière de 2008, les autorités se sont emparées de la question du risque de contrepartie associé aux produits dérivés de gré à gré. Les dix années qui se sont écoulées depuis permettent de dresser le bilan de l’efficacité du cadre règlementaire alors mis en place. Cette étude s’attache à cartographier les différents éléments qui composent ou alimentent le risque de contrepartie en matière de dérivés de gré à gré et analyse l’efficacité des diverses techniques déployées pour le gérer. Les outils de gestion utilisés en matière de dérivés de gré à gré afin d’atténuer le risque de contrepartie reposent sur une pluralité de mécanismes juridiques (légaux ou contractuels). Si certains sont à la libre disposition des parties, d’autres leur sont imposés par la règlementation. Tous ces instruments participent – seuls ou conjointement – à atténuer réellement le risque de contrepartie. Mais chacun d’eux ne traite néanmoins qu’un aspect particulier de ce risque et aucun ne permet de l’annihiler totalement. Certaines situations viennent même parfois perturber l’efficacité des outils de gestion du risque de contrepartie et anéantissent leurs effets bénéfiques. On comprend in fine que la gestion efficace du risque de contrepartie suppose le respect de trois étapes : l’identification des risques attachés à chaque opération en présence doit précéder l’élaboration des outils de gestion en vue de leur atténuation, laquelle suppose enfin la prévention du risque d’inefficacité des outils utilisés. Dans tous les cas, la gestion du risque de contrepartie en matière de dérivés de gré à gré s’avère non seulement imparfaite mais aussi éminemment fragileLn the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the authorities tackled the issue of counterparty risk associated with OTC derivatives. The ten years that have passed since then allow us an opportunity to take stock of the effectiveness of the regulatory framework then put in place. This study aims to map the different elements that make up or feed the counterparty risk in OTC derivatives and analyzes the effectiveness of the various techniques deployed to manage it. The management tools used in OTC derivatives to mitigate counterparty risk rely on a variety of legal mechanisms. If some are at the free disposal of the parties, others are imposed by the regulations. All these instruments participate -alone or jointly-in actually mitigating the counterparty risk. But each of them only deals with a particular aspect of this risk and none of them can completely neutralise it. Some situations even sometimes disrupt the effectiveness of counterparty risk management tools and negate their beneficial effects. Ultimately, it is understood that the effective management of counterparty risk requires three stages: the identification of the risks attached to each operation, followed by the development of relevant management tools with a view to the mitigation of such risks, and finally steps to avoid the risk of inefficiency of the tools used. ln any case, counterparty risk management in OTC derivatives is not only imperfect but also eminently fragile
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Mulaudzi, Mmboniseni Phanuel. "The subprime mortgage crisis : asset securitization and interbank lending / M.P. Mulaudzi." Thesis, North-West University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/5097.
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Subprime residential mortgage loan securitization and its associated risks have been a major topic of discussion since the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC) in 2007. In this regard, the thesis addresses the issues of subprime residential mortgage loan (RML) securitization in discrete-, continuous-and discontinuous-time and their connections with the SMC. In this regard, the main issues to be addressed are discussed in Chapters 2, 3 and 4.
In Chapter 2, we investigate the risk allocation choices of an investing bank (IB) that has to decide between risky securitized subprime RMLs and riskless Treasuries. This issue is discussed in a discrete-time framework with IB being considered to be regret- and risk-averse before and during the SMC, respectively. We conclude that if IB takes regret into account it will be exposed to higher risk when the difference between the expected returns on securitized subprime RMLs and Treasuries is small. However, there is low risk exposure when this difference is high. Furthermore, we assess how regret can influence IB's view - as a swap protection buyer - of the rate of return on credit default swaps (CDSs), as measured by the premium based on default swap spreads. We find that before the SMC, regret increases IB's willingness to pay lower premiums for CDSs when its securitized RML portfolio is considered to be safe. On the other hand, both risk- and regret-averse IBs pay the same CDS premium when their securitized RML portfolio is considered to be risky.
Chapter 3 solves a stochastic optimal credit default insurance problem in continuous-time that has the cash outflow rate for satisfying depositor obligations, the investment in securitized loans and credit default insurance as controls. As far as the latter is concerned, we compute the credit default swap premium and accrued premium by considering the credit rating of the securitized mortgage loans.
In Chapter 4, we consider a problem of IB investment in subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBSs) and Treasuries in discontinuous-time. In order to accomplish this, we develop a Levy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for IB's investment in subprime RMBSs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime RMBS losses which can be associated with credit risk. Furthermore, we use variance to measure such risk, and assume that the risk is bounded by a certain constraint. We are now able to set-up a mean-variance optimization problem for IB's investment which determines the optimal proportion of funds that needs to be invested in subprime RMBSs and Treasuries subject to credit risk measured by the variance of IE's investment. In the sequel, we also consider a mean swaps-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for IB's investment which determines the optimal portfolio which consists of subprime RMBSs and Treasuries subject to the protection by CDSs required against the possible losses. In this regard, we define SaR as indicative to IB on how much protection from swap protection seller it must have in order to cover the losses that might occur from credit events. Moreover, SaR is expressed in terms of Value-at-Risk (VaR).
Finally, Chapter 5 provides an analysis of discrete-, continuous- and discontinuous-time models for subprime RML securitization discussed in the aforementioned chapters and their connections with the SMC.
The work presented in this thesis is based on 7 peer-reviewed international journal articles (see [25], [44], [45], [46], [47], [48] and [55]), 4 peer-reviewed chapters in books (see [42], [50j, [51J and [52]) and 2 peer-reviewed conference proceedings papers (see [11] and [12]). Moreover, the article [49] is currently being prepared for submission to an lSI accredited journal.Thesis (Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.
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Armakolla, Angela. "An assessment of CCP resilience under the new regulatory framework using public data." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E086.
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Dans ce travail, l’impact des accords d’EMIR et d’autres directives internationales (Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures, Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions) sur la résilience des marchés financiers est étudié en termes de risque de contrepartie et de risque systémique. Plus particulièrement, le travail se focalise sur la résilience des Chambres de Compensation (CCPs), qui sont au cœur de la nouvelle architecture du système financier. Dans le cadre du mouvement réglementaire des produits dérivées vers les CCPs, le risque de contrepartie a ainsi été transféré des marchés bilatéraux aux CCPs. Il est donc aujourd’hui primordial d’évaluer les risques systémiques relatifs à cette transformation de la structure des marchés financiers. Après avoir décrit le fonctionnement des CCPs et leur cadre réglementaire, le rôle du marché européen des pensions livrées compensées comme canal d’amplification du risque systémique est analysé. Les pensions livrées sont des instruments financiers de refinancement des banques, représentant une part croissante de la liquidité des institutions financières en Europe. Un nouvel ensemble de données sur les taux de décote appliqués aux obligations d’état par les CCPs est présenté. Son analyse montre que les taux de décote sur les obligations d’État des pays périphériques ont considérablement augmenté en réaction à la hausse du risque souverain. Enfin, la procyclicité des taux de décote et la concentration des transactions sécurisées indiquent que le marché de la pension livrée pourrait être une source de risque systémique dans la zone Euro. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la résilience financière des CCPs et de leurs membres. Comme la résilience de long terme d’une CCP dépend de la solidité de sa base de membres, la capacité de paiement des bases de membres en vertu des scénarios normaux et stressés est évaluée. Pour se protéger contre le défaut de leurs participants, les chambres de compensation ont mis au point plusieurs procédures de gestion des risques : des marges, des fonds de garantie mutuels (default fund), et des outils de récupération (remplissage des fonds de garantie mutuels, prélèvement d’une fraction des gains de marges, ). Les ressources préfinancées, les outils de récupération, et les pouvoirs d’évaluation (assessment powers) des plus importantes CCPs européennes et américaines sont étudiés afin d’évaluer l’exposition possible de leurs membres. Des règles de répartition des pertes et l’impact des nouveaux régimes de résolution sur la liquidité contingente sont aussi considérés. Il ressort de cette analyse que, sous un scénario stressé (couverture 2), la qualité de la base des membres s’érode considérablement, compromettant la capacité des membres à fournir des liquidités contingentes et à maintenir la résilience de la chambre de compensation. Enfin, l’ensemble des CCPs européens est scruté en utilisant des données publiques. Des nouveaux outils ont été développés ; ils permettent de comparer les activités des CCPs européens, leur degré d’interconnexion, et le risque de liquidité auquel fait face une CCP dans le cadre de ses activités du réinvestissement. Ces outils permettent de montrer que, dans le cas d’une crise systémique, plusieurs CCPs pourraient poser des problèmes sévères pour la stabilité du système financierNo English summary available
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Sousa, Ana Isabel Amaro de. "Metodologias para mensurar a exposição ao risco de crédito de contraparte de derivados over--the-couter." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4452.
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Mestrado em Matemática FinanceiraO Acordo de Basileia III prevê, além do aumento da qualidade e do nível de requisitos de capital, a revisão de métricas com vista a melhorar o nível de exposição ao Risco de Crédito de Contraparte (RCC). O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver metodologias para mensurar a exposição esperada ao RCC de derivados negociados fora de bolsa (Over-The-Counter – OTC), que consistem em contratos ligados ao futuro valor, ou situação, dos instrumentos subjacentes aos quais se referem. Neste contexto, a inovação do novo Acordo refere-se à introdução de um encargo de capital para cobrir o risco de perdas do valor de mercado do RCC esperado para os instrumentos derivados OTC. Estas potenciais perdas são denominadas Ajustamentos de Avaliação de Crédito (Credit Valuation Adjustment – CVA) e podem ser calculadas por diferentes métodos, dependendo para tal da aprovação do Banco de Portugal. Nas ilustrações, recorre-se frequentemente a Interest Rate Swaps, por serem o instrumento financeiro mais transacionado.
Basel III provides an increase of the quality and level of capital requirements, and also it presents a review of the metrics in order to improve the level of exposure to the Counterparty Credit Risk (CCR). In this framework I will develop methodologies to measure the expected exposure to the CCR of Over-the-Counter derivatives, which are contracts that are linked to the future value of the underlying instruments or situation to which they refer. In this context, Basel III innovation reports to the introduction of a capital charge to cover the risk of loss of the CCR Mark-to-Market expected value for OTC derivatives. These potential losses are called Credit Valuation Adjustments (CVA) and may be calculated using different methods, which must be approved by Banco de Portugal. There is a recurrent use of Interest Rate Swaps when providing examples, given that they are the most traded financial instruments.
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Wass, Martin. "Mixed Integer Linear Programming for Allocation of Collateral within Securities Lending." Thesis, KTH, Optimeringslära och systemteori, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-277056.
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A mixed integer linear programming formulation is used to solve the problem of allocating assets from a bank to its counterparties as collateral within securities lending. The aim of the optimisation is to reduce the cost of allocated collateral, which is broken down into the components opportunity cost, counterparty risk cost and triparty cost. A solution consists of transactions to carry out to improve the allocation cost, each transaction consisting of sending a quantity of some asset from a portfolio to the bank or from the bank to some portfolio. The optimisation process is split into subproblems to separate obvious transactions from more complex optimisations. The reduction of each cost component is examined for all the subproblems. Two subproblems transform an initial collateral allocation into a feasible one which is then improved by the optimisation. Decreasing opportunity cost is shown to be an easier task than decreasing counterparty risk and triparty costs since the latter costs require a comparatively large number of transactions. The optimisation is run several times in a row, performing the suggested transactions after each solved iteration. The cost reduction of k optimisation iterations with 10 transactions per iteration is shown to be similar to the cost reduction of 1 optimisation iteration with 10k transactions. The solution time increases heavily with the number of iterations. The suggested transactions may need to be performed in a certain order. A precedence constrained problem takes this into account. The problem is large and the execution time is slow if a limit is imposed on the number of allowed transactions. A strategic selection of portfolios can limit the number of suggested transactions and still reach a solution which comes close to the optimal one. This can also be done by requiring that all suggested transactions must reduce the cost by a minimum amount. The final model is ready to be used in a semi-automatic fashion, where transactions are verified by a human who checks if they are sound. A fully automated process requires further testing on historical and recent data.Ett blandat-heltal linjärt optimeringsproblem används för att lösa uppgiften att tilldela värdepapper från en bank till dess kunder som pant för värdepapperslån. Målet med optimeringen är att minska kostnaden av den tilldelade panten. Kostnaden bryts ned i komponenterna alternativkostnad, motpartsrisk och tripartykostnad. En lösning består av föreslagna transaktioner som ska genomföras för att förbättra den nuvarande säkerhetstilldelningens kostnad. En transaktion består av att ta hem eller skicka ut en kvantitet av ett visst värdepapper från eller till en av bankens kunders portföljer. Optimeringsproblemet bryts ned i flera delproblem med syfte att särskilja uppenbara föreslagna säkerheter till en godkänd tildelning som sedan blir en startpunkt för optimeringen. Att minska alternativkostnad visar sig vara enklare än att minska motpartsrisk och tripartykostnader på så sätt att de sistnämnda kostnaderna kräver fler transaktioner för att minskas. Optimeringen körs flera gånger i rad, där alla föreslagna transaktioner från en iteration genomförs innan nästa iteration körs. Kostnadsminskningen av k körningar med 10 transaktioner visar sig vara väldigt nära, om än något mindre, än en körning med 10k transaktioner. Exekveringstiden ökar drastiskt med antalet iterationer. De föreslagna transaktionerna kan behöva genomföras i en viss ordning. En problemformulering konstrueras som tar höjd för detta, men exekveringstiden är extremt lång när antalet transaktioner begränsas. Ett strategiskt urval av portföljer kan begränsa antalet föreslagna transaktioner utan att försämra lösningen särskilt mycket. På ett liknande sätt kan antalet föreslagna transaktioner minskas genom att lägga till ett villkor som säger att lönsamheten av en transaktion måste överskrida en given minsta tröskel. Den slutgiltiga modellen är redo att användas om de föreslagna transaktionerna granskas manuellt innan de genomförs. En helt automatisk process ligger längre fram i tiden efter ytterligare tester på historisk och nuvarande data.
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Gourdy, Hélène. "La couverture sur les marchés financiers." Thesis, Paris 2, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA020020.
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Depuis la crise de 2008, les acteurs des marchés cherchent à accroître l’efficacité de leur protection contre les risques spécifiques nés des opérations financières auxquels ils s’exposent quotidiennement. Parallèlement, le législateur doit assurer l'objectif de stabilité financière. La couverture, instrument singulier, fruit de l’imagination des praticiens, s’inscrit depuis quelques années au confluent de ces deux finalités distinctes. Cette double utilisation opacifie cette notion et soulève de nombreuses interrogations.Initialement conçue comme un simple dépôt de garantie complété par des versements de marge en fonction de l’évolution de la valeur des opérations en cours, la couverture a depuis lors fortement évolué. Ses usages se sont multipliés, et ses contours sont devenus incertains, au point d’apparaître comme une notion éclatée. Répondant à diverses appellations, tantôt obligatoire, tantôt facultative, utilisée sur les marchés réglementés comme de gré à gré, la couverture prend désormais des formes si variées que l’on peine à en saisir l’essence. Le recours accru à cet instrument et l’ampleur des enjeux financiers imposent pourtant d’en clarifier le régime en levant les insécurités juridiques qu’il comporte.À travers l’étude de l’ensemble des manifestations de la couverture sur les marchés financiers, la présente thèse tend à mettre en lumière la nature juridique de cette garantie, afin d’apporter un éclairage sur les conditions de sa mise en œuvreSince the financial crisis of 2008, market participants have been seeking to increase the effectiveness of their protection against the specific risks arising from financial transactions to which they are daily exposed. At the same time, the legislator must ensure financial stability. The collateral, unique instrument, designed by financial actors, has been part of these two distinct purposes for some years now. This dual use clouds the concept and raises many questions.Initially conceived as a simple security deposit supplemented by margin calls based on changes in the value of outstanding transactions, collateral has since evolved significantly. Its uses have multiplied, and its boundaries have become uncertain, so much as to appear undefined. Referred to by various names, sometimes mandatory, sometimes optional, and used on regulated markets as well as over-the-counter, collateral now takes such varied forms that it is difficult to grasp its core substance. However, the increased use of this instrument requires that its regime be clarified and the legal uncertainties it produces be removed, given the magnitude of possible financial consequences.By reviewing all the current examples of coverage on the financial markets, this thesis aims to highlight the legal nature of this security interest, in order to shed the necessary light on the conditions for its implementation
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Rahman, Dima. "The fragility of financial institutions : dependence structure, extremal behaviour and contagion." Thesis, Paris 10, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA100128.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse se propose d’analyser la structure et la dynamique de dépendance de crédit des institutions financières aux Etats-Unis et en Europe durant la crise financière de 2008. Un premier chapitre présente une revue de la littérature des modèles multi-dimensionnels de crédit et des modèles économétriques de contagion financière. Ce chapitre a pour vocation de guider notre réflexion à la fois conceptuelle et méthodologique sur les hypothèses analytiques de la contagion ainsi que ses méthodes de mesure. Nous montrons que si la contagion est devenue une hypothèse centrale des modèles multivariés de risque de crédit, il n’en reste néanmoins que sa définition et sa quantification ne font pas l’objet de consensus dans la littérature. Un deuxième chapitre propose une analyse empirique des co-movements des rendements de CDS de banques et sociétés d’assurance américaines et européennes. La dissociation de leur structure de dépendance entre association linéaire et dépendances extrêmes nous permet de mettre en évidence des phénomènes d'interconnexions entre institutions financières apparues au courant de la crise et véhiculant ainsi sous l'effet de la contagion, un risque systémique croissant. Un dernier chapitre présente une interprétation économique des résultats obtenus dans notre deuxième chapitre. En particulier, nous cherchons à quantifier l'influence jouée par la contagion et les facteurs de risques communs sur la dynamique de dépendance extrême des institutions financières. Nous démontrons ainsi le rôle du risque de contrepartie, du risque de liquidité et du risque de défaut des institutions financières dans la transmission de la contagion sur le marché de CDSThis thesis examines the credit dependence structure and dynamics of financial institutions in the U.S. and Europe amid the recent financial crisis. A first chapter presents a survey of multi-name models of credit risk and econometric models of financial contagion with the purpose of guiding both the analytical and conceptual assumptions and econometric modelling techniques we use in the subsequent chapters. We show that if contagion has become a central cornerstone of multi-name models of credit risk, there is nonetheless a lack of consensus on the way to both define and measure it. A second chapter presents the results of an empirical analysis of U.S. and European banks and insurance companies’ CDS return extreme co-movements. By uncovering financial institutions' linear as well as extremal dependence structures, we provide evidence that their credit dependence has strengthened during the crisis, thereby effectively conveying, in the face of extreme tail events, potential systemic risks. A third and last chapter provides an economic rationale of the results presented in our second chapter. In particular, we examine the impact of common risk factors and contagion on the dynamics of financial institutions' extremal credit dependence. We demonstrate the role of counterparty risk and liquidity risk, as well the repricing by market participants since July 2007 of their jump-to-default premia as additional channels driving financial institutions' increased dependence and amplifying contagion on the CDS market
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Delangle, Charline. "Les motifs du contrat à titre onéreux : étude comparative des droits français, anglais et allemand." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020BORD0278.
Full textAbstract:
Renvoyant aux raisons de la conclusion du contrat, les motifs contractuels sont classiquement appréhendés de façon négative en droit français : la règle est celle de leur indifférence, sauf en matière du contrôle de la licéité de l’acte, pour lequel il est traditionnellement enseigné que les motifs des parties sont admis de façon illimitée. Le caractère essentiel des motifs dans le phénomène contractuel s’accorde mal avec ce rejet de principe. Une analyse comparative des solutions concrètes retenues en droits français, anglais et allemand permet non seulement de contester le principe de l’indifférence des motifs mais, en outre, de révéler de substantielles lignes de convergence dans le traitement des motifs contractuels. En effet, les droits français, anglais et allemand se rejoignent très largement, tant sur le plan de la politique juridique fondant la prise en compte des motifs que sur le régime de cette dernière. Aussi, la question des motifs est d’abord inévitable au regard de l’exigence unitaire d’une justification de l’engagement, laquelle consiste en un intérêt minimal au contrat à titre onéreux. Techniquement, l’intégration d’une contrepartie est ainsi nécessaire et les droits étudiés intègrent des institutions permettant de s’assurer de l’intérêt suffisant qu’elle représente. Ensuite, au-delà de cette nécessaire intégration d’un motif minimal, les droits étudiés font dépendre le sort du contrat de la possibilité de satisfaire l’utilité qu’il poursuit, telle qu’elle est définie par l’ensemble des motifs qui y sont tacitement ou expressément intégrés. L’impossibilité de satisfaction des motifs des parties, au moment de la formation du contrat ou de son exécution, est en effet de nature à conduire à la remise en cause de l’acte, sous réserve qu’elle ne constitue pas un risque devant être supporté par celui dont les attentes sont déçues. L’étude des motifs contractuels en droits comparés français, anglais et allemand conduit au dépassement des oppositions dogmatiques traditionnelles – concernant notamment les débats autour de la notion de cause – et offre un éclairage nouveau des règles retenues en droit interneReferring to the reasons for the conclusion of a contract, contractual motives are classically viewed in a negative way in French law : they are indifferent in principle, except in matters of control of the legality of the act, for which it is traditionally taught that motives of the parties are admitted without limitation. The essential aspect of motives in the contractual phenomenon does not fit well with this rejection of principle. A comparative analysis of the concrete solutions adopted in French, English and German laws not only makes it possible to challenge the principle of indifference of motives but, in addition, reveals substantial lines of convergence in the treatment of the question of contractual motives. Indeed, French, English and German laws meet, both in terms of legal policy at the basis of taking motives into account, and of the regime of this consideration. Also, the issue of motives is, first, inevitable with regard to the unitary requirement of a justification of engagement, which consists of a minimum interest in an onerous contract. Technically, the integration of a counterparty is thus necessary, and the laws studied include institutions making it possible to ensure the sufficiency of the interest that it represents. Beyond this necessary integration of a minimal motive, every law studied makes the fate of the contract dependent on the possibility of satisfying the utility which it pursues, as defined by all the motives tacitly or expressly integrated into it. The impossibility of motives at the formation of the contract or its execution is thus likely to lead to its contestation, provided that it does not constitute a risk to be supported by the one whose expectations are disappointed. The study of contractual motives in French, English and German comparative law leads to overcoming the traditional dogmatic oppositions - in particular centered on debates around the notion of cause - and offers a whole new perspective on the rules adopted in national law
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Msahazi, Abdillah. "La préservation du système bancaire par la régulation : l'exemple du système bancaire comorien." Thesis, Paris 5, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA05D012.
Full textAbstract:
Cette Thèse de sciences de gestion, se propose d’élucider les difficultés que rencontrent les acteurs du système bancaire comorien et apporter des solutions afin de lui garantir sa solidité, stabilité et enfin sa pérennité. Elle est divisée en deux parties. La première porte plus particulièrement sur le cadre national et internationale du système bancaire comorien. La deuxième met en évidence les banques comoriennes confrontées à la transparence financière et aux exigences de supervision prudentielle. Le premier titre de la première partie, tâche à mettre en lumière l’organisation actuelle du système bancaire comorien inspiré du modèle français (chapitre 1) et l’apport du développement récent de la finance islamique (chapitre 2) afin de combler le retard de la banque conventionnelle. La réorganisation de la Banque Centrale des Comores et la mise en place de la banque islamique locale, peuvent contribuer au changement radical du système bancaire comorien. Le deuxième titre, permet au régulateur et prêteur en dernier ressort (Banque Centrale des Comores) de prendre le modèle des normes prudentielles internationales proposées par le Comité de Bâle (Bâle II et III), pour réguler le système bancaire comorien afin de lui garantir sa solidité, stabilité et enfin sa pérennité (chapitre 1). A travers ces recommandations du comité de Bâle, nous avons apporté des solutions en élaborant la Matrice Msahazi Credit Scoring Corporation, destinée aux analyses des données des banques comoriennes contre un risque endogène (Chapitre2). Nous avons aussi élaboré d’autres matrices que les banques comoriennes se serviront pour la notation interne, des risques de contreparties (entreprises et particuliers) afin de lutter contre le risque exogène. La deuxième partie de cette Thèse suggère deux autres solutions : la première est l’exigence de transparence financière des banques comoriennes (Pilier 3 : Bâle2 et 3) afin de lutter contre les malversations financières orchestrées par certains agents (titre I). Le premier chapitre introduit l’objectif de la communication financière de manière générale et la manière dont le comité de Bâle (Bâle 2 et 3) recommande les banques de communiquer leurs informations financières (méthodes d’évaluations des risques et fonds propres). Le deuxième chapitre propose aux banques comoriennes et aux autorités de contrôles, les techniques de notation financière pratiquées au niveau internationale pour distinguer le niveau de solvabilité de la contrepartie. La deuxième solution, nous avons donné à la Banque Centrale des Comores, des techniques pour renforcer la supervision prudentielle (Pilier 2, Bâle 2 et 3), (titre II). Le premier chapitre exige d’une part la direction et le conseil d’administration de la banque de définir les techniques de contrôles, d’indentifications, d’évaluations, gestions des risques et les objectifs de fonds propre à atteindre. D’autre part, l’autorité de contrôle (Banque centrale des Comores) doit passer au crible tous ces outils de contrôle. Au deuxième et dernier chapitre de la recherche, nous avons proposé à la Banque Centrale des Comores des nouvelles méthodes de supervision prudentielle afin de garantir la solidité, stabilité et pérennité du système bancaire. Nous avons l’espoir que l’ensemble de ces suggestions contribueront à préserver la solidité, stabilité et pérennité du système bancaire comorien afin de financer le développement de l’économie comorienne et sortir le pays de la pauvretéThis thesis on busness management, aims to elucidate the difficulties faced by the stakeholders of the Comorian banking system and to provide solutions to ensure its soundness, stability and sustainability. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first focuses specifically on the national and international context of the Comorian banking system. The second, highlights how the Comorian banks should adapt to the financial transparency and prudential supervision requirements. The first title of the first part, tries toshed light on the current organization of the Comorian banking system based on the French model (Chapter 1) and the contribution of the recent development of Islamic finance (Chapter 2) to close the gap in conventional banking. The reorganization of the Central Bank of the Comoros and the establishment of the local Islamic bank can contribute to a radical change in the Comorian banking system. The second title allows the regulator and lender of last resort (Central Bank of the Comoros ) to take the model of international prudential standards proposed by the Basel Committee (Basel II and III) to regulate the Comorian banking system in order to guarantee its soundness, stability and finally sustainability (Chapter 1). Through these recommendations of the Basel committee, we have provided solutions by developing Msahazi Credit Scoring Matrix Corporation, intended to analyse data of Comorian banks against endogenous risk (Chapter 2). We have also developed matrices other than Comorian banks used for internal rating of the counterparty risk (companies and individuals) to fight against exogenous risk. The second part of this thesis suggests two alternatives: the first is the requirement of financial transparency for Comorian banks (Pillar 3: Basel Conventions 2 and 3) in order to fight against embezzlement orchestrated by certain agents (Title I). The first chapter introduces the objective of financial reporting in general, and how the Basel Committee (Basel 2 and 3) asks banks to disclose their financial information (methods of risk assessments and equity). The second chapter provides credit rating techniques practiced at international level to the Comorian banks and supervisory authorities in order to distinguish the level of creditworthiness of companies and clients concerned. The second alternative we have given to the Central Bank of the Comoros is the techniques for strengthening prudential supervision (Pillar 2, Basel 2 and 3), (Title II) . The first chapter requires both the management and the bank's board of directors to define control techniques, identifications, assessments, risk managements and core capital goals. On the other hand, the supervisory authority (Comoros Central Bank) has to go through all these control tools. In the second and final chapter of the research, we propose to the Central Bank of the Comoros new prudential supervision methods to ensure the soundness, stability and sustainability of the banking system. We hope that all of these suggestions will help to preserve the soundness, stability and durability of the Comorian banking system in order to finance the development of the Comorian economy and lift the country out of poverty
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Chen, Yan-Ling, and 陳彥伶. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps with the Intersection of Bilateral Counterparty, Reference and Market Risks." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/68940254935959203672.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立高雄第一科技大學
財務管理所
93
In this paper, we extend the model setup of Jarrow and Yu (2001), Jarrow and Turnbull (2000), Kusuoka (1999) to derive the credit default swaps with the intersection of bilateral counterparties, reference and market risks. We first derive the pricing formulas for zero coupon bonds of reference entity, protection buyers, and protection sellers respectively. We also derive the suitable swap rate of credit default swap. From the section of numerical analyses, we compare our models with the model of Jarrow and Yu (2001) and find that (1) the assumption of “idealized default swap” underprices the swap rates of the credit default swaps. (2) the swap rates are underestimated without considering the default risk of protection buyer. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the swap rates are underestimated without considering the default correlation between protection buyer (seller) and reference obligation. Meanwhile, without the consideration of the intersection of market and credit risks, the swap rates maybe be overpriced or underpriced.
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Yeh, Wen-Chi, and 葉文琦. "A Simplified Lattice Approach for Pricing Asset Swaps and Default Swaps with Counterparty Risks." Thesis, 2003. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07749937600435368606.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
91
In this paper we incorporate the counterparty risk concept of the Jarrow and Yu (2001) continuous-time model into the Hung and Wang (2002) lattice framework to develop a simple binomial method for valuing default swaps and asset swaps on convertible bonds with counterparty risks. The advantage in using our model is easily implemented for practitioners since the needed parameters in our model can be deduced from the market data of the term structures for the risk-free and risky bonds. From the simulation results, we find that both the default and counterparty risks play important roles in determining the values of asset swaps and default swaps.
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Ndlangamandla, Phetha Mandlovini. "Quantifying counterparty credit risk." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/12402.
Full textAbstract:
Counterparty credit risk (CCR) is the risk that a counterparty in a deal will not be
able to meet their contractual obligations in the future. While CCR is an important
task for any risk desk, it has often been underestimated due to the miss-conception
that some counterparties were deemed to be either too big to fail or too big to
be allowed to default. This was highlighted by the 2008 nancial crisis that saw
respected banks, such as Lehman Brothers, and nancial service providers, such as
AIG, default on their obligations. Since then there has been renewed interest in
CCR, with the focus being on actively pricing and hedging it. In this work CCR
is invistigated including its intersection with other forms of risk. CCR mitigation
techniques are explored, followed by the formal quanti cation of CCR in the form
of credit value adjustments (CVA). The analysis of CCR is then applied to interest
rate derivatives, more speci cally forward rate agreements (FRAs) and interest rate
swaps (IRSs).
The e ect of correlation on unilateral and bilateral CVA between counterparties,
including risk factors such as the interest rate, is investigated. This is invistigated
under two credit risk modelling frameworks, the structural and intensity
based frameworks. It is shown that correlation has a none-negligible e ect on both
unilateral and bilateral CVA for FRAs and IRSs. Correlation structures, namely
the Gaussian and the Student-t copula, are used to induce dependency in order to
understand their e ect on both unilateral and bilateral CVA. It is shown that the
choice of copula does not have signi cant e ect on either unilateral or bilateral CVA.