Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Counterfactual regret'

In 5 experiments neurologically damaged patients’ counterfactual reasoning, decision making (DM) and experience of counterfactually mediated emotions (CME) was explored. 17 patients, with varying lesion sites resulting from a stroke, (7 female) aged between 31 and 84 (M=64.5 years) and 17 controls (12 female) aged between 28 and 74 (M= 59 years) participated in the project. The project was conducted with three aims in mind; to establish if regret itself is experienced in brain damaged individuals; to explore the component processes of CMEs and widen the search for the brain areas that supports these; to conduct research that points to how the experience of regret directly impacts on future DM and underpins adaptive behavioural change. Through exploring the link between regret and adaptive choice switching, investigating counterfactual reasoning abilities, CME responses, emotional responses to The Regret Gambling Task (RGT) and responses in a task designed to measure risk taking, this project sheds new light on how neurological damage affects counterfactual reasoning, emotions and DM. In addition, two experiments were conducted with undergraduate students to explore whether CMEs are produced slowly, through deliberative processes, or quickly and effortlessly. Results were interpreted as evidence for fast and effortless CME production.

Today more and more algorithms and their applications are entering into the everyday life of each of us. Algorithms can help people to make more effective choices through historical data analysis, generating predictions to present to the user in the form of advice and suggestions. Given the increasing popularity of these suggestions, a greater understanding of how people could increase their judgment through the suggestions presented is needed, in order to improve the interface design of these applications. Since the envision of Artificial Intelligence (AI), technical progress has the intent of surpassing human performance and abilities (Crandall et al., 2018). Less consideration has been given to improve cooperative relationships between human agents and computer agents during decision tasks. No study up to date has investigated the negative emotions that could arise from a bad outcome after following the suggestion given by an intelligent system, and how to cope with the potential distrust that could affect the long-term use of the system. According to Zeelenberg et al. (Martinez & Zeelenberg, 2015; Martinez, Zeelenberg, & Rijsman, 2011a; Zeelenberg & Pieters, 1999), there are two emotions strongly related to wrong decisions, regret, and disappointment. The objective of this research is to understand the different effects of disappointment and regret on participants’ behavioral responses to failed suggestions given by algorithm-based systems. The research investigates how people deal with a computer suggestion that brings to a not satisfying result, compared to a human suggestion. To achieve this purpose, three different scenarios were tested in three different experiments. In the first experiment, the comparison was amongst two wrong suggestions in a between-subjects design through the presentation of a flight ticket scenario with two tasks. The first study analyzed exploratory models that explain the involvement of the source of suggestion and the trust in the systems in the experience of counterfactual emotions and responsibility attribution. The second experiment takes advantage of a typical purchase scenario, already used in the psychological literature, which had the aim to solve the issues found in the first study and test the algorithm aversion paradigm through the lenses of a classic study of regret literature. Results showed that, contrary to early predictions, people blame more the source of the suggestion when it comes from a human as compared with an intelligent computer suggestion. The third study had the aim to understand the role of counterfactuals through a paradigmatic experiment from algorithm aversion literature. In this study, the main finding is about the reliance people have on the algorithmic suggestion, which is higher compared to the reliance they have with a human suggestion. Nevertheless, people felt more guilt when they had a wrong outcome with a computer compared with a suggestion given by a person. Results are relevant in order to better understand how people decide and trust algorithm-based systems after a wrong outcome. This thesis is the first attempt to understand this algorithm aversion from the experienced counterfactual emotions and their different behavioral consequences. However, some of these findings showed contradictory results in the three experiments; this could be due to the different scenarios and participants’ thoughts and perceptions of artificial intelligence-based systems. From this work, three suggestions can be inferred to help designers of intelligent systems. The first regards the effective involvement of counterfactuals during the user interaction with a wrong outcome and the potential behavioral consequences that could affect the future use of the intelligent system. The second suggestion is the contribution to the importance of the context in which decisions are made, and the third guideline suggests the designer rethink about anthropomorphism as the best practice to present suggestions in the occurrence of potential wrong outcomes. Future works will investigate, in a more detailed way the perceptions of users and test different scenarios and decision domains.

Магістерська дисертація: 105 с., 16 рис., 20 табл., 1 додаток, 43 джерела. Об’єктом дослідження є ігри з неповною інформацією, на прикладі безлімітного техаського холдему для двох гравців. Предметом дослідження є методи навчання з підкріпленням для розв'язування ігор з неповною інформацією. Мета та цілі роботи – розглянути теоретичне підґрунтя ігор з неповною інформацією, провести дослідження існуючих методів їх розв'язування, розробка програмного забезпечення, яке вміє оптимально розв'язувати окремі ситуації в безлімітному техаському холдемі, та ігрові партії в цілому, аналіз розробленого програмного продукту. Дослідження ґрунтується на наукових публікаціях та інших матеріалах закордонних конференцій та архівів в галузі навчання з підкріпленням, глибокого навчання та пошуку виграшних стратегій в іграх. Результатом роботи є клієнт для гри у безлімітний техаський холдем, що автоматично може приймати рішення у ігрових ситуаціях.
Master's thesis: 105 pages, 16 figures, 20 tables, 1 appendixes, 43 sources. The object of the work are imperfect information games, on the example of No-limit Texas hold'em for two players. The subject of the work is reinforcement learning methods for solving games with incomplete information. The purpose and goals of the work – to consider the theoretical basis of games with incomplete information, to study existing methods of solving them, to develop software that can optimally solve individual situations in No-limit Texas Hold'em, and game in general, analysis of the developed software. The research is based on scientific publications and other materials of foreign conferences and archives in the field of reinforcement learning, deep learning and finding winning strategies in games. The result is a client for playing No-limit Texas Hold'em, which can automatically make decisions in game situations.

Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2004.
Thesis research directed by: English Language and Literature. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

In der Dissertation habe ich versucht eine Theorie der globalen Gerechtigkeit darzustellen. Diese Theorie hat als ihre Basis das Denken von John Rawls. Rawls hat sich in seinem letzten Buch „Das Recht der Völker“ zu dem Thema geäußert. Ich erläutere seine Gedanken und zugleich kritisiere ich sie. Meine Kritikpunkte an Rawls: 1. Keine detaillierte Erläuterung der Aufteilung in ideale und nichtideale Theorie 2. Unvollkommenheit der Prinzipien für die ideale Theorie der globalen Gerechtigkeit Ich verweise auf die mögliche Verbesserung des Rawlschen Standpunktes über globale Gerechtigkeit durch: 1. eine Unterscheidung der normativen und deskriptiven idealen bzw. nichtidealen Theorie (damit wird die Struktur von Rawls‘s Arguments klarer) 2. Durch die Darstellung von drei Prinzipien die Rawlssche Prinzipien hätten sein könnten (damit bekommt seine Theorie inhaltlich mehr Wert) 3. Durch die Erläuterung des Prinzips der Solidarität als das, was an Rawls‘s Theorie besonders gewesen sein könnte.
In my disertation I have tried to present a theory of global justice. This theory has for its basis the thought of John Rawls. Rawls expressed his thaughts about the topic in his last book „The Law of Peoples.“ On the one hand I explain his theory while on the other I criticize it. My critique on Rawls goes accoring the following lines: 1. No elaborated disitiniction betwen the ideal and nonideal theory 2. Unfinished principles for the ideal theory of global justice I point to the possible amelioration of Rawls´ theory of global justice through: 1. Differentiation of the normative and descriptive ideal and nonideal theory (through this disticition is the stucture of Rawls´ argument clearer) 2. Introduction of three prinicples that should have been Rawls´s (through these three principles the content of his theory becomes more valuable) 3. Eplaning the principle of solidarity as the principle that could have been the specific for Rawls´ theory

Marcos notáveis no avanço da Inteligência Artificial foram alcançados através da obtenção de soluções para jogos.A técnica da Minimização do Arrependimento tem sido muito usada no contexto da obtenção de soluções para jogos nos últimos anos. Em particular, Counterfactual Regret Minimization é um algoritmo que aplica esta técnica e pode ser usado para encontrar equilíbrios em jogos massivos. Portanto, pode-se usar um algoritmo deste género para desenvolver um agente com uma estratégia muito sólida para esses jogos.Um problema com este algoritmo é a quantidade de tempo de execução que exige, especialmente quando aplicada a jogos com enormes árvores de pesquisa. Para abordar este problema, os jogos são geralmente abstraídos o que pode levar a soluções piores.Esta dissertação propõe uma implementação do CFR que corre no GPU, usando CUDA, que é capaz de tirar partido da capacidade de GPUs para processar elevadas quantidades de dados de forma paralela. Usando esta abordagem, é possível reduzir o tempo de execução, como demonstram os resultados. Isto significa que este método tem o potencial de permitir o cálculo de Equilíbrios de Nash para jogos com um espaço de pesquisa maior do que antes.
Notable milestones in the advancement of Artificial Intelligence have been achieved through solving games. Regret minimization is a technique that has seen a lot of use in the context of solving games in the past few years. In particular, Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is an algorithm that applies this technique and can be used to find equilibria in massive games. Therefore, one can use an algorithm like this to develop an agent with a very solid strategy for such games.One issue with this algorithm is the amount of execution time it requires, especially when applied to large extensive games. To address this issue, games are usually abstracted which can lead to worse solutions.This dissertation proposes an implementation of CFR that runs on the GPU, using CUDA, which is able to take advantage of the ability of GPUs to process many parallel streams of data. Using this approach, it is possible to reduce the execution time in some Poker variants, as our results demonstrate. This means that this approach has the potential to allow the computation of Nash Equilibria for games with a larger search space than before.

Marcos notáveis no avanço da Inteligência Artificial foram alcançados através da obtenção de soluções para jogos.A técnica da Minimização do Arrependimento tem sido muito usada no contexto da obtenção de soluções para jogos nos últimos anos. Em particular, Counterfactual Regret Minimization é um algoritmo que aplica esta técnica e pode ser usado para encontrar equilíbrios em jogos massivos. Portanto, pode-se usar um algoritmo deste género para desenvolver um agente com uma estratégia muito sólida para esses jogos.Um problema com este algoritmo é a quantidade de tempo de execução que exige, especialmente quando aplicada a jogos com enormes árvores de pesquisa. Para abordar este problema, os jogos são geralmente abstraídos o que pode levar a soluções piores.Esta dissertação propõe uma implementação do CFR que corre no GPU, usando CUDA, que é capaz de tirar partido da capacidade de GPUs para processar elevadas quantidades de dados de forma paralela. Usando esta abordagem, é possível reduzir o tempo de execução, como demonstram os resultados. Isto significa que este método tem o potencial de permitir o cálculo de Equilíbrios de Nash para jogos com um espaço de pesquisa maior do que antes.
Notable milestones in the advancement of Artificial Intelligence have been achieved through solving games. Regret minimization is a technique that has seen a lot of use in the context of solving games in the past few years. In particular, Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is an algorithm that applies this technique and can be used to find equilibria in massive games. Therefore, one can use an algorithm like this to develop an agent with a very solid strategy for such games.One issue with this algorithm is the amount of execution time it requires, especially when applied to large extensive games. To address this issue, games are usually abstracted which can lead to worse solutions.This dissertation proposes an implementation of CFR that runs on the GPU, using CUDA, which is able to take advantage of the ability of GPUs to process many parallel streams of data. Using this approach, it is possible to reduce the execution time in some Poker variants, as our results demonstrate. This means that this approach has the potential to allow the computation of Nash Equilibria for games with a larger search space than before.

Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Alberta, 2009.
Title from PDF file main screen (viewed on Oct. 20, 2009). "A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta." Includes bibliographical references.

Människor upplever ånger dagligen, och beroende på vilka beslut som fattas kan vissa beslut ångras mer än andra. Därför undersöktes skillnader i typer av ånger med hjälp av webbenkäter som delades via Facebooks PM funktion. 80 deltagare ingick där de fick beskriva två saker som de ångrade mest att de hade gjort samt två saker som de ångrade mest att de inte hade gjort. Dessa skattades sedan på hur mycket de ångrade det samt hur pass viktigt/allvarligt de upplevde det. En signifikant skillnad upptäcktes där saker som de ångrade att de inte hade gjort skattades som viktigare/allvarligare än det som de ångrade att de hade gjort. Inom kategorierna kärlek/sex/äktenskap och familj/vänskap ångrade deltagarna mest saker som de hade gjort respektive inte hade gjort. De omkringliggande faktorerna kan vara det som påverkar upplevelsen av ånger oavsett om det är pågrund av en handling eller icke-handling.

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada
Ao longo da vida temos tendência a fazer balanços que nos permitem reflectir nas nossas opções e imaginarmos o que poderia ter ocorrido de forma diferente. A este processo de alterar cognitivamente um acontecimento dá-se o nome de pensamento contrafactual (contra os factos). Estes pensamentos incidem numa versão alterada da realidade, consistindo em cenários imaginários contrários ao sucedido, principalmente se tiverem sido adversos. ( e.g., Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Roese, 1994; Roese & Olson 1995a; Roese & Olson 1997). Ainda de acordo com estes autores, os contrafactuais têm uma direcção, que consiste na categorização que deles fazemos, com base na comparação feita entre os factos ocorridos e as alternativas percepcionadas. Desta forma, elaboramos um pensamento contrafactual ascendente, se percebemos a alternativa como algo melhor à realidade, e descendente se ocorrer o inverso. Aos contrafactuais ascendentes está associado o regret, onde lamentamos o que fizemos e correu mal, ou pelo contrário o que não fizemos (omissão) (Gilovich & Medvec, 1994; Gilovich & Medvec, 1995 a). Estes autores referem ainda, que a curto prazo lamentamos mais as acções cujo resultado não foi satisfatório, no entanto a longo termo são as omissões que nos causam mais regret. O presente estudo teve por objectivo, verificar se os acontecimentos revelados pelos sujeitos da amostra se centravam mais nas omissões, não se esperando encontrar diferenças de género no padrão temporal dos contrafactuais. Por outro lado, também se procurou determinar se existiam diferenças de conteúdo associadas ao género , isto é se os homens se centravam mais em aspectos relacionados com a sua realização pessoal, e as mulheres com factos relacionados com a sua realização emocional. Por último pretendeu-se verificar a direcção do pensamento contrafactual. De acordo com o quadro teórico (Gilovich & Medvec, 1994; Gilovich & Medvec, 1995 a) temos mais tendência a realizarmos contrafactuais em situações adversas (regret), pelo que se esperava encontrar mais contrafactuais ascendentes, causadores de regret, sendo esta incidência maior nas omissões. Mais uma vez não eram esperadas diferenças de género neste ponto. A amostra foi constituída por 45 sujeitos, ( 25 mulheres e 20 homens) com mais de 35 anos, sendo a média de idade de 42,4 anos. Embora a diferença não seja significativa, os resultados apontaram para uma tendência dos sujeitos se centraram mais em acções do que nas omissões, o que contraria a literatura, que refere haver uma maior tendência para os indivíduos focarem omissões a longo termo. Não foram encontradas diferenças de género em relação a esta tendência como era esperado. Relativamente ao conteúdo dos contrafactuais, também não foram verificadas diferenças relevantes entre homens e mulheres, o que contrariou a expectativa inicial, que relacionava os contrafactuais masculinos mais ligados á realização profissional e os femininos à realização pessoal, embora não exista literatura consistente que apoie esta ideia. Os sujeitos mostraram níveis de maior regret associado às omissões. Os sujeitos da amostra, a longo prazo centraram-se mais na acção, o que contraria a literatura (Roese e Olson, 1994 ; Roese e Olson,1995 a ; Roese e Olson, 1997) no entanto sentiram menos regret com estas acções, atribuindo-lhes contudo um grande significado. Pelo contrário, os indivíduos que se focaram mais na omissão, apresentaram níveis de regret mais elevados, o que vem no seguimento do quadro teórico exposto (Gilovich & Medvec,1994; Gilovich & Medvec,1995 a), no entanto deram menos importância ao acontecimento referido. Estes resultados são extremamente interessantes, pois ao serem aparentemente contraditórios e não existindo nenhuma literatura que os expliquem, abrem portas para novos estudos, que confirmem estes dados e que tragam novos conhecimentos a esta área do pensamento contrafactual.
Throughout our lives we tend to make statements that allow us to reflect on our choices and imagine what could have happened differently. In this process of change cognitively an event is given the name of counterfactual thinking (as opposed to facts). These thoughts relate to a modified version of reality, consisting of imaginary scenarios contrary to succeed, especially if they have been adverse. (Eg, Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Roese, 1994, Roese & Olson 1995, Roese & Olson 1997). Also according to these authors, the counterfactual has a direction, which is the categorization of them do, based on the comparison made between the facts and the alternatives perceived. Hence, we make an upward counterfactual thinking, if we perceive as being better alternative to reality, and downward if the reverse occurs. The counterfactual is associated with the ascending regret, where regret what we did and went wrong, or rather what did not do (omission) (Gilovich & Medvec, 1994; Gilovich & Medvec, 1995a). These authors also indicate that the short-term regret over the actions which result was not satisfactory, however the long term are the omissions that cause the most regret. The present study was to verify whether the events revealed by the sample subjects were focused more on omissions and is not expected to find gender differences in the temporal pattern of counterfactual. On the other hand, they also examined whether there were differences in the gender-related content, that is if men are more centered on issues related to their personal development, and women with the facts related to his emotional fulfillment. On the other hand, they also examined whether there were differences in the gender-related content, that is if men are more centered on issues related to their personal development, and women with the facts related to his emotional fulfillment. Finally to find out if the direction of counterfactual thinking. According to the theoretical framework (Gilovich & Medvec, 1994; Gilovich & Medvec, 1995 a) have more tendency to accomplish counterfactual in adverse situations (regret). Thus we expected to find more upward counterfactuals that cause regret, and this increased incidence omissions. Again were not expected gender differences on this point. The sample consisted of 45 subjects (25 women and 20 men) with more than 35 years, with a mean age of 42.4 years. Although the difference was not significant, the results indicated a tendency for the subjects focused more on actions than omissions, which contradicts the literature that states there is a greater tendency for individuals to focus omissions in the long term. There were no gender differences in relation to this trend as expected. Regarding the content of counterfactuals, were not found significant differences between men and women, which contradicted the initial hypothesis, which related the counterfactual more connected to the male professional achievement and personal fulfillment to women, although there is no consistent literature to support this idea . The subjects showed higher levels of regret associated with omissions. The subjects of the sample, the long-term focused more on action, which contradicts the literature (Roese and Olson, 1994, Roese and Olson, 1995, Roese and Olson, 1997) but felt less regret these actions by assigning them but a great significance. By contrast, individuals who have focused more on the failure showed levels higher regret, which follows the theoretical framework above (Gilovich & Medvec, 1994; Gilovich & Medvec, 1995), however, gave less importance to the event above. These results are extremely interesting because they seem to be contradictory, and there is no literature to explain, open the door to further studies to confirm these data and to bring new knowledge to this area of counterfactual thinking.

General Game Playing (GGP) deals with the design of players that are able to play any discrete, deterministic, complete information games. For many games like chess, designers develop a player using a specially designed algorithm and tune all the features of the algorithm to play the game as good as possible. However, a general game player knows nothing about the game that is about to be played. When the game begins, game description is given to the players and they should analyze it and decide on the best way to play the game. In this thesis, we focus on two-player constant-sum simultaneous move games in GGP and how this class of games can be handled. Rock-paper-scissors can be considered as a typical example of a simultaneous move game. We introduce the CFR algorithm to the GGP community for the first time and show its effectiveness in playing simultaneous move games. This is the first implementation of CFR outside the poker world. We also improve the UCT algorithm, which is the state of the art in GGP, to be more robust in simultaneous move games. In addition, we analyze how UCT performs in simultaneous move games and argue that it does not converge to a Nash equilibrium. We also compare the usage of UCT and CFR in this class of games. Finally, we discuss about the importance of opponent modeling and how a model of the opponent can be exploited by using CFR.

碩士
國立雲林科技大學
企業管理系
103
The present study used an experimental method. Experiment 1 was performed to investigate the effect of ways of internet promotion (quantity promotion/mixed promotion) and time pressure levels (high/low) on regret of inaction. Experiment 2 was performed to investigate the effect of directions of counterfactual thinking (upward/downward) and time pressure levels (high/low) on regret of inaction, all of which were of 2x2 factorial designs. The results of the first experiment revealed that: (1) The ways of internet promotion have no significant influence on regret of inaction. (2) The time pressure with high level is significantly higher than the time pressure with low level on regret of inaction. (3) The interactions between the time pressure levels and the ways of internet promotion have marginal significantly on regret of inaction. Therefore, the time pressure with high level is significantly higher than the time pressure with low level on regret of inaction under the condition of quantity promotion but the time pressure with high level and the time pressure with low level have no significantly on regret of inaction under the condition of mixed promotion. The results of the second experiment revealed that: (1) The downward counterfactual thinking is marginal significantly higher than the upward counterfactual thinking on regret of inaction. (2) The interactions between the time pressure levels and the directions of counterfactual thinking have significantly on regret of inaction. Therefore, the time pressure with high level is significantly higher than the time pressure with low level on regret of inaction under the condition of downward counterfactual thinking but the time pressure with high level and the time pressure with low level have no significantly on regret of inaction under the condition of upward counterfactual thinking.

General game playing is an area of artificial intelligence which focuses on creating agents capable of playing many games from some class. The agents receive the rules just before the match and therefore cannot be specialized for each game. Deepstack is the first artificial intelligence to beat professional human players in heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em poker. While it is specialized for poker, at its core is a general algorithm for playing two-player zero-sum games with imperfect information - continual resolving. In this thesis we introduce a general version of continual resolving and compare its performance against Online Outcome Sampling Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization in several games.

Title: Solving Endgames in Large Imperfect-Information Games such as Poker Author: Bc. Karel Ha Department: Department of Applied Mathematics Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Milan Hladík, Ph.D., Department of Applied Mathematics Abstract: Endgames have a distinctive role for players. At the late stage of games, many aspects are finally clearly defined, deeming exhaustive analysis tractable. Specialised endgame handling is rewarding for games with perfect information (e.g., Chess databases pre-computed for entire classes of endings, or dividing Go board into separate independent subgames). An appealing idea would be to extend this approach to imperfect-information games such as the famous Poker: play the early parts of the game, and once the subgame becomes feasible, calculate an ending solution. However, the problem is much more complex for imperfect information. Subgames need to be generalized to account for information sets. Unfortunately, such a generalization cannot be solved straightaway, as it does not generally preserve optimality. As a consequence, we may end up with a far more exploitable strategy. There are currently three techniques to deal with this challenge: (a) disregard the problem entirely; (b) use a decomposition technique, which sadly retains only the same quality; (c) or formalize improvements of...

The aim of this dissertation has been to describe the phenomenon of people’s spontaneous creation of counterfactual thoughts, with its psychological determinants and correlates. Counterfactual thoughts are one type of mental simulations, which build imaginations of hypothetical situations or reconstructing events that have taken place. Counterfactual thoughts are products of the process of counterfactual thinking (CFT), and they represent alternative versions of past events, actions or states. People can engage in creating counterfactual thoughts (i.e. in counterfactual thinking) intentionally, through force or spontaneously (that is without their active will). This work focuses primarily on spontaneous counterfactual thinking, concerning the imagination of better than actual versions of an individual's actions (upward self-focused CFT). Research hitherto carried out on CFT has focused on the generation of counterfactual thought on one, usually negative, event. Although the literature has emphasised that people generate counterfactual thoughts every day, the question of an individual’s inclination towards the spontaneous engagement in CFT, which would appear in different situations, has up to now remained undiagnosed. The mechanism of people creating counterfactual thoughts has been described through the use of three theoretical concepts: Kahneman and Miller's norm theory (1986), the Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance (1957/2007) and the functional theory of counterfactual thinking of Roese and Epstude (2017). Based on the aforementioned theories, the view was formulated that an individual's impression of an abnormal experience or incompatibility (dissonance), plays a particular role in activating spontaneous counterfactual thinking. Moreover, based upon these theories and Svenson's (1992) theory of differentiation and consolidation, the arguments were also constructed for the stance that taking actions or making a decision, if it is not accompanied by a belief in its correctness, is a sufficient factor to trigger CFT. The argument has therefore been justified that confrontation with information about the results of one's own decisions or actions is not a prerequisite for an individual to engage in counterfactual thinking about these decisions / actions. The work has also aimed at answering the following questions: (1) Can the spontaneous generation of upward self-focused counterfactual thoughts by people be treated as a tendency showing inter-situational consistency? This also involves answering the questions: (1a) Does the creation of counterfactual thoughts, showing better versions of someone’s own activities, relate to both experiencing events with known and negative consequences, or can it also concern situations whose outcome is not known? (1b) If counterfactual thinking can relate to one's own actions or individual decisions about both known and unknown results, are these two phenomena separate? (2) What are the psychological characteristics of the tendency to spontaneously engage in counterfactual thinking? In order to answer the above questions, a unique research tool – The propensity for spontaneous counterfactual thinking questionnaire (SSMK) – has been constructed and psychometrically validated. The analyses confirmed that the spontaneous creation of counterfactual thoughts is a homogeneous phenomenon and demonstrates inter-situational coherence. This concerns both the decisions and actions of an individual, whose consequences are both known and negative, and those whose results are not yet known although the person is unsure whether the decision was a good one or not. The analysed construct turned out to be moderately and positively correlated with features exhibiting a theoretical similarity to it: rumination about oneself and perseverance. Three tests were carried out in order to determine the relationship of the tendency to create counterfactual thoughts of better versions of their own actions with some psychological features. The SSMK questionnaire was used to determine whether and to what extent spontaneous involvement in upward CFT on one’s own activities may be determined by: 1) the formal and content characterisation of behaviour (characteristics of the Strelau’s regulative theory of temperament and self-efficacy), 2) the characteristics of the decisionmaking process (the tendency to apply the maximisation strategy - along with its subdimensions - and the tendency to feel regret) and 3) the cognitive preferences of the individual (the need for cognitive closure, along with the dimension of decisiveness and reflexivity - impulsiveness). The tendency to engage in spontaneous upward self-focused counterfactual thinking is positively correlated with perseverance; emotional reactivity; the tendency to ruminate about oneself; applying a maximising decision making strategy; experiencing post-decisional regret and a lack of self-confidence. It also negatively correlates with abruptness, prudence and decisiveness. It was also shown that temperament features explain the variability of the propensity to spontaneously engage in CFT to a greater extent than the dimensions of cognitive functioning. From the research, it occurred that the need for cognitive closure and the sense of self-efficacy turned out not to be significantly related to the tendency to spontaneously create counterfactual thoughts. This dissertation complements previous studies on counterfactual thinking with a research tool that allows for measuring the propensity of people to spontaneously engage in upward self-focused CFT. In this work, it was also shown for the first time that the tendency to imagine better versions of one's own actions: 1) shows inter-situational consistency, 2) manifests itself in both known and unknown consequences, 3) has a temperamental basis (especially in terms of temporal aspects of temperament), and 4) co-occurs with the difficulty of making decisions. The discussion focused mainly on the formulation of conclusions and hypotheses for future research on the mechanism of the spontaneous engagement of people in counterfactual thinking. Also presented was the assumption concerning the relationship between the tendency to spontaneously engage in upward CFT on their own actions and self-concept clarity. It was also proposed to take up the problem of the relationship of propensity to spontaneously engage in counterfactual thinking about better versions of one's own actions with people's life-choices (for example choosing a career path). The hypothesis was also formulated about the lower tendency of entrepreneurs than non-entrepreneurs to spontaneously engage in the type of CFT analysed in this dissertation.
Celem niniejszej rozprawy było opisanie zjawiska spontanicznego myślenia kontrfaktycznego wraz z jego psychologicznymi determinantami i korelatami. Myślenie kontrfaktyczne (counterfactual thinking, CFT) jest jednym z typów mentalnych symulacji, czyli budowania wyobrażeń hipotetycznych sytuacji lub rekonstruowania zdarzeń, które miały miejsce. Wytworami procesu myślenia kontrfaktycznego są myśli kontrfaktyczne – umysłowe reprezentacje alternatywnych wersji przeszłych zdarzeń, działań, czy stanów. Ludzie mogą angażować się w tworzenie myśli kontrfaktycznych (czyli w myślenie kontrfaktyczne) intencjonalnie, wymuszając je, lub spontanicznie – bez udziału woli. Praca ta koncentruje się przede wszystkim na spontanicznym myśleniu kontrfaktycznym, którego efektem są wyobrażenia lepszych niż faktyczne wersji własnych działań jednostki. Dotychczasowe badania nad CFT skupiały się na generowaniu myśli kontrfaktycznych na temat jednego, najczęściej negatywnego zdarzenia. Choć w literaturze zauważa się, że ludzie tworzą myśli kontrfaktyczne na co dzień, kwestia skłonności jednostki do spontanicznego angażowania się w CFT, która przejawiałaby się w różnych sytuacjach, jest jak dotąd nierozpoznana. Mechanizm tworzenia przez ludzi myśli kontrfaktycznych opisany został w oparciu o trzy koncepcje teoretyczne: teorię norm Kahnemana i Millera (1986), teorię dysonansu poznawczego Festingera (1957/2007) oraz funkcjonalną teorię myślenia kontrfaktycznego Roese i Epstude’a (2017). Na ich podstawie sformułowano pogląd, że szczególną rolę dla aktywowania się spontanicznego myślenia kontrfaktycznego ma doznawanie przez jednostkę wrażenia nienormalności doświadczenia, czy też niezgodności (dysonansu). Ponadto w oparciu o teorie te, a także o teorię dyferencjacji i konsolidacji Svensona (1992), zbudowano argumentację dla stanowiska, że podjęcie działania lub decyzji, jeśli nie towarzyszy im przekonanie o słuszności, jest czynnikiem wystarczającym do pojawienia się CFT. Uzasadniano tym samym, że konfrontacja z informacją o wynikach własnych decyzji lub działań nie jest warunkiem koniecznym do tego, by jednostka angażowała się w myślenie kontrfaktyczne na temat tych decyzji/działań. W pracy dążono do realizacji następujących celów badawczych: (1) Stwierdzenie, czy spontaniczne generowanie przez ludzi myśli kontrfaktycznych na temat lepszych wersji własnych działań może być traktowane jako skłonność wykazująca międzysytuacyjną spójność (w tym odpowiedzi na pytania: (1a) Czy tworzenie przez ludzi myśli kontrfaktycznych ukazujących lepsze wersje własnych działań związane jest jedynie z doświadczaniem zdarzeń o znanych i negatywnych konsekwencjach, czy może także dotyczyć sytuacji, których wynik nie jest znany? (1b) Jeśli myślenie kontrfaktyczne może dotyczyć własnych działań lub decyzji jednostki zarówno o znanych, jak i o nieznanych wynikach, to czy są to dwa odrębne zjawiska?), (2) Określenie, z jakimi cechami psychologicznymi powiązana jest skłonność do spontanicznego angażowania się w myślenie kontrfaktyczne. W celu udzielenia odpowiedzi na powyższe pytania skonstruowano własne narzędzie badawcze – Kwestionariusz skłonności do spontanicznego myślenia kontrfaktycznego (SSMK) oraz dokonano jego psychometrycznej walidacji. Przeprowadzone analizy potwierdziły, że spontaniczne tworzenie przez ludzi myśli kontrfaktycznych jest zjawiskiem wykazującym międzysytuacyjną spójność oraz, że dotyczy zarówno tych decyzji i działań jednostki, których następstwa są znane i negatywne, jak i tych, których wynik nie jest jeszcze znany, lecz których słuszności jednostka nie jest pewna. Analizowany konstrukt okazał się umiarkowanie i dodatnio korelować z cechami wykazującymi do niego teoretyczne podobieństwo: ruminacją o sobie oraz perseweratywnością. Dążąc do rozpoznania psychologicznych podstaw oraz specyfiki zjawiska skłonności do tworzenia myśli kontrfaktycznych o lepszych wersjach własnych działań przeprowadzono trzy badania. Kwestionariusz SSMK wykorzystano w nich do określenia czy i w jakim zakresie spontaniczneangażowanie się w polepszające CFT na temat własnych działań może wiązać się z / być determinowane przez: 1) formalną i treściową charakterystykę zachowania (cechy z Regulacyjnej Teorii Temperamentu Strelaua oraz poczucie własnej skuteczności), 2) charakterystyki procesu podejmowania decyzji (skłonność do stosowania strategii maksymalizowania – wraz z jej podwymiarami – i tendencję do odczuwania żalu podecyzyjnego) oraz 3) preferencje poznawcze jednostki (potrzebę poznawczego domknięcia, wraz z wymiarem zdecydowania i refleksyjność – impulsywność). Tendencja do spontanicznego myślenia kontrfaktycznego korelowała dodatnio z perseweratywnością, reaktywnością emocjonalną, skłonnością do ruminowania o sobie oraz tendencją do stosowania strategii maksymalizowania i odczuwana żalu podecyzyjnego, a także z brakiem pewności siebie zaś ujemnie ze żwawością, rozwagą i zdecydowaniem. Wykazano również, że cechy temperamentu wyjaśniają zmienność skłonności do spontanicznego angażowania się w CFT w większym stopniu, niż preferencje poznawcze jednostki. Z badań wynika, że potrzeba poznawczego domknięcia oraz poczucie własnej skuteczności, nie są związane ze skłonnością do spontanicznego tworzenia polepszających myśli kontrfaktycznych. Rozprawa ta uzupełnia dotychczasowe studia nad myśleniem kontrfaktycznym o narzędzie badawcze umożliwiające pomiar skłonności do spontanicznego angażowania się przez ludzi w polepszające CFT. W pracy tej po raz pierwszy wykazano także, że tendencja do wyobrażania sobie lepszych wersji własnych działań: 1) wykazuje międzysytuacyjną spójność, 2) przejawia się zarówno w sytuacjach o znanych, jak i o nieznanych konsekwencjach, 3) ma podłoże temperamentalne (zwłaszcza w zakresie aspektów czasowych temperamentu), oraz 4) współwystępuje z przejawianiem trudności z podejmowaniem decyzji. W dyskusji wyników skoncentrowano się, przede wszystkim na sformułowaniu wniosków i hipotez dla przyszłych badań, dotyczących mechanizmu spontanicznego angażowania się przez ludzi w myślenie kontrfaktyczne. Przedstawiono między innymi przypuszczenie o związku między skłonnością do spontanicznego angażowania się w polepszające CFT na temat własnych działań a (nie)spójnością obrazu siebie. Zaproponowano także podjęcie problemu związku skłonności do spontanicznego myślenia kontrfaktycznego na temat lepszych wersji własnych działań z dokonywanymi przez ludzi wyborami życiowymi – np. wyborem ścieżki zawodowej. Sformułowano także hipotezę o niższej skłonności przedsiębiorców niż nie-przedsiębiorców do spontanicznego angażowania się w analizowany w tej rozprawie typ CFT.