Relevant bibliographies by topics / Counterfactual evaluation

Academic literature on the topic 'Counterfactual evaluation'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 1 June 2024

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles

Select a source type:

Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Counterfactual evaluation.'

Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.

You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Journal articles on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Markman, Keith D., Matthew N. McMullen, Ronald A. Elizaga, and Nobuko Mizoguchi. "Counterfactual thinking and regulatory fit." Judgment and Decision Making 1, no. 2 (November 2006): 98–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s193029750000231x.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
AbstractAccording to regulatory fit theory (Higgins, 2000), when people make decisions with strategies that sustain their regulatory focus orientation, they “feel right” about what they are doing, and this “feeling-right” experience then transfers to subsequent choices, decisions, and evaluations. The present research was designed to link the concept of regulatory fit to functional accounts of counterfactual thinking. In the present study, participants generated counterfactuals about their anagram performance, after which persistence on a second set of anagrams was measured. Under promotion framing (i.e., find 90% or more of all the possible words) upward counterfactual thinking in general elicited larger increases in persistence than did downward counterfactual thinking in general, but under prevention framing (i.e., avoid failing to find 90% or more of all the possible words) upward evaluation (comparing reality to a better reality) elicited larger increases in persistence than did upward reflection (focusing on a better reality), whereas downward reflection (focusing on a worse reality) elicited larger increases in persistence than did downward evaluation (comparing reality to a worse reality). In all, the present findings suggest that the generation of counterfactuals enhances the likelihood that individuals will engage in courses of action that fit with their regulatory focus orientation.
2

Bertolotti, Mauro, and Patrizia Catellani. "The Effects of Counterfactual Attacks on the Morality and Leadership of Different Professionals." Social Psychology 49, no. 3 (May 2018): 154–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335/a000338.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Abstract. Past research has offered contrasting results regarding the effects of attacks on social judgments. In three experiments, we investigated the effects of counterfactual (“If only…”) and non-counterfactual attacks on the morality versus leadership of politicians versus entrepreneurs. First, participants rated morality as the most desirable, but least typical dimension of politicians, and leadership as the most desirable and most typical dimension of entrepreneurs (Study 1). Then, counterfactual attacks led to poorer evaluation of the attacked target and better evaluation of the attacking source as compared to non-counterfactual attacks, especially when counterfactuals were focused on the most desirable dimension for the professional category of the attacked target (Study 2). Similar results emerged when the typicality of the attacked dimension was manipulated (Study 3). Discussion focuses on the higher success of attacks on desirable personality dimensions and of counterfactual attacks as compared to other attacks.
3

Hannikainen, Ivar. "Might-counterfactuals and the principle of conditional excluded middle." Disputatio 4, no. 30 (May 1, 2011): 127–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/disp-2011-0003.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Abstract Owing to the problem of inescapable clashes, epistemic accounts of might-counterfactuals have recently gained traction. In a different vein, the might argument against conditional excluded middle has rendered the latter a contentious principle to incorporate into a logic for conditionals. The aim of this paper is to rescue both ontic mightcounterfactuals and conditional excluded middle from these disparate debates and show them to be compatible. I argue that the antecedent of a might-counterfactual is semantically underdetermined with respect to the counterfactual worlds it selects for evaluation. This explains how might-counterfactuals select multiple counterfactual worlds as they apparently do and why their utterance confers a weaker alethic commitment on the speaker than does that of a would-counterfactual, as well as provides an ontic solution to inescapable clashes. I briefly sketch how the semantic underdetermination and truth conditions of mightcounterfactuals are regulated by conversational context.
4

Rylková, Žaneta, Karel Stelmach, and Petr Vlček. "Overall Equipment Effectiveness within Counterfactual Impact Evaluation Concept." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 64, s1 (December 1, 2017): 29–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2017-0037.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Abstract Counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) is a scientific quantitative approach mainly based on experiments and quasi experiments. CIE is trying to prove a causal relationship between outputs and outcomes. CIE does not take into account coherence of external incentives of companies with internal incentives that have or may have an impact on the behaviour of enterprises. The paper sets up internal evaluation indicators for businesses, counterfactuals useful for creating a more complex metrics evaluating businesses in the area of performance. The aim of the paper is to present model situation using the elementary principle of counterfactual impact evaluation based on “the Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE)”.
5

Schleich, Maximilian, Zixuan Geng, Yihong Zhang, and Dan Suciu. "GeCo." Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment 14, no. 9 (May 2021): 1681–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.14778/3461535.3461555.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Machine learning is increasingly applied in high-stakes decision making that directly affect people's lives, and this leads to an increased demand for systems to explain their decisions. Explanations often take the form of counterfactuals , which consists of conveying to the end user what she/he needs to change in order to improve the outcome. Computing counterfactual explanations is challenging, because of the inherent tension between a rich semantics of the domain, and the need for real time response. In this paper we present CeCo, the first system that can compute plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations in real time. At its core, CeCo relies on a genetic algorithm, which is customized to favor searching counterfactual explanations with the smallest number of changes. To achieve real-time performance, we introduce two novel optimizations: Δ-representation of candidate counterfactuals, and partial evaluation of the classifier. We compare empirically CeCo against five other systems described in the literature, and show that it is the only system that can achieve both high quality explanations and real time answers.
6

Wauters, Benedict, and Derek Beach. "Process tracing and congruence analysis to support theory-based impact evaluation." Evaluation 24, no. 3 (July 2018): 284–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1356389018786081.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Theory-based impact evaluations have been put forward increasingly as an alternative for counterfactual impact evaluations. However, this raises questions regarding the foundations of drawing causal inference on the basis of such approaches. Case study methods such as QCA (Quantitative Comparative Analysis), process tracing and congruence analysis are emerging as a way to match the methodological rigor of counterfactuals. While QCA relies on multiple cases, process tracing and congruence analysis are methods that claim to be able to draw causal inference within a single case. In this article, a completed theory-based impact evaluation of a European Social Fund intervention is used as a foundation to demonstrate and discuss the differences between process tracing and congruence analysis and their relative (dis)advantages.
7

Clark-Moorman, Kyleigh, Jason Rydberg, and Edmund F. McGarrell. "Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence." Criminal Justice Policy Review 30, no. 9 (November 27, 2018): 1408–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0887403418812999.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6% to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations.
8

Castaño, Javier, Maria Blanco, and Pilar Martinez. "Reviewing Counterfactual Analyses to Assess Impacts of EU Rural Development Programmes: What Lessons Can Be Learned from the 2007–2013 Ex-Post Evaluations?" Sustainability 11, no. 4 (February 20, 2019): 1105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11041105.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Counterfactual analysis has been recommended as a means of assessing the impacts of European Rural Development Programmes (RDP) over recent years, although its application has been scarce to date. This paper examines the use of counterfactual analysis to assess socioeconomic impacts in a set of 2007–2013 ex-post evaluations. The analysis undertaken shows that a wide variety of counterfactual approaches have been applied, although certain barriers still remain to address the estimation of RDP impacts following the EU evaluation standards. Furthermore, we noted that impacts provided by individual RDP evaluations may hardly be aggregated, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions about the effectiveness of rural development policy at the EU level.
9

Zhang, Qiyuan, and Judith Covey. "Past and Future Implications of Near-Misses and Their Emotional Consequences." Experimental Psychology 61, no. 2 (October 1, 2014): 118–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169/a000231.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The Reflection and Evaluation Model (REM) of comparative thinking predicts that temporal perspective could moderate people’s emotional reactions to close counterfactuals following near-misses ( Markman & McMullen, 2003 ). The experiments reported in this paper tested predictions derived from this theory by examining how people’s emotional reactions to a near-miss at goal during a football match (Experiment 1) or a close score in a TV game show (Experiment 2) depended on the level of perceived future possibility. In support of the theory it was found that the presence of future possibility enhanced affective assimilation (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the beginning of the game the players who had nearly scored were hopeful of future success) whereas the absence of future possibility enhanced affective contrast (e.g., if the near-miss occurred at the end of the game the players who had nearly scored were disappointed about missing an opportunity). Furthermore the experiments built upon our theoretical understanding by exploring the mechanisms which produce assimilation and contrast effects. In Experiment 1 we examined the incidence of present-oriented or future-oriented thinking, and in Experiment 2 we examined the mediating role of counterfactual thinking in the observed effect of proximity on emotions by testing whether stronger counterfactuals (measured using counterfactual probability estimates) produce bigger contrast and assimilation effects. While the results of these investigations generally support the REM, they also highlight the necessity to consider other psychological mechanisms (e.g., social comparison), in addition to counterfactual thinking, that might contribute to the emotional consequences of near-miss outcomes.
10

Snider, Todd, and Adam Bjorndahl. "Informative counterfactuals." Semantics and Linguistic Theory 25 (October 29, 2015): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.3765/salt.v25i0.3077.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
A single counterfactual conditional can have a multitude of interpretations that differ, intuitively, in the connection between antecedent and consequent. Using structural equation models (SEMs) to represent event dependencies, we illustrate various types of explanation compatible with a given counterfactual. We then formalize in the SEM framework the notion of an acceptable explanation, identifying the class of event dependencies compatible with a given counterfactual. Finally, by incorporating SEMs into possible worlds, we provide an update semantics with the enriched structure necessary for the evaluation of counterfactual conditionals.
More sources
You might also be interested in the extended bibliographies on the topic 'Counterfactual evaluation' for particular source types:
Journal articles

Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Orri, Stefansson Hlynur. "Decision theory and counterfactual evaluation." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/984/.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The value of actual outcomes or states of affairs often depends on what could have been. Such dependencies create well-known “paradoxes” for decision theory, the best-known perhaps being the so-called Allais Paradox. The primary aim of this PhD thesis is to enrich decision theory such that it includes counterfactual prospects in the domains of desirability (or utility) functions, and show that, as a result, the paradoxes in question disappear. Before discussing the way in which counterfactual propositions influence the desirability of actual outcomes, I discuss the way in which the truth of one factual proposition influences the desirability of another. This examination leads me to reject the Invariance assumption, which states that the desirability of a proposition is independent of whether it is true. The assumption plays an important role in David Lewis’ famous arguments against the so-called Desire-as-Belief thesis (DAB). The unsoundness of Lewis’ argument does of course not make DAB true. In fact, I provide novel arguments against different versions of DAB, without assuming Invariance. To justify the assumptions I make when extending decision theory to counterfactual prospects, I discuss several issues concerning the logic, metaphysics and epistemology of counterfactuals. For instance, I defend a version of the so-called Ramsey test, and show that Richard Bradley’s recent Multidimensional Possible World Semantics for Conditionals is both more plausible and permissive than Bradley’s original formulation of it suggested. I use the multidimensional semantics to extend Richard Jeffrey’s decision theory to counterfactuals, and show that his desirability measure, extended to counterfactuals, can represent the various different ways in which counterfactuals influence the desirability of factual propositions. And I explain why the most common alternatives to Jeffrey’s theory cannot be similarly extended. I conclude the thesis by using Jeffrey’s extended decision theory to construct an ethical theory I call Modal Consequentialism, and argue that it better satisfies certain entrenched moral intuitions than Non-Modal Consequentialism (such as classical utilitarianism and welfare economics).
2

Swaminathan, Adith. "Counterfactual Evaluation and Learning From Logged User Feedback." Thesis, Cornell University, 2017. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10258968.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:

Interactive systems that interact with and learn from user behavior are ubiquitous today. Machine learning algorithms are core components of such systems. In this thesis, we will study how we can re-use logged user behavior data to evaluate interactive systems and train their machine learned components in a principled way. The core message of the thesis is • Using simple techniques from causal inference, we can improve popular machine learning algorithms so that they interact reliably. • These improvements are effective and scalable, and complement current algorithmic and modeling advances in machine learning. • They open further avenues for research in Counterfactual Evaluation and Learning to ensure machine learned components interact reliably with users and with each other. This thesis explores two fundamental tasks—evaluation and training of interactive systems. Solving evaluation and training tasks using logged data is an exercise in counterfactual reasoning. So we will first review concepts from causal inference for counterfactual reasoning, assignment mechanisms, statistical estimation and learning theory. The thesis then contains two parts.

In the first part, we will study scenarios where unknown assignment mechanisms underlie the logged data we collect. These scenarios often arise in learning-to-rank and learning-to-recommend applications. We will view these applications through the lens of causal inference and modularize the problem of building a good ranking engine or recommender system into two components—first, infer a plausible assignment mechanism and second, reliably learn to rank or recommend assuming this mechanism was active when collecting data.

The second part of the thesis focuses on scenarios where we collect logged data from past interventions. We will formalize these scenarios as batch learning from logged contextual bandit feedback. We will first develop better off-policy estimators for evaluating online user-centric metrics in information retrieval applications. In subsequent chapters, we will study the bias-variance trade-off when learning from logged interventions. This study will yield new learning principles, algorithms and insights into the design of statistical estimators for counterfactual learning.

The thesis outlines a few principles, tools, datasets and software that hopefully prove to be useful to you as you build your interactive learning system.

3

GUCCIARDI, Gianluca. "Three Essays in Policy Impact Evaluation." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Ferrara, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2487965.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
1. Re-assessing health care decentralization and its impact on infant mortality: evidence from the EU countries In this work, we propose to test the effects of health-care sector decentralization on infant mortality, a proxy for the quality of citizens’ health, adopting as unit of analysis 25 EU countries between 1995 and 2013. Moreover, we discuss and address the endogeneity of the model due to possible mismeasurement of the decentralization of the health-care sector, when proxied by the sole fiscal decentralization. Our results suggest that the positive effects of fiscal decentralization on the citizen’s health occur in institutional contexts in which central authorities have delegated political or managerial powers and made local authorities directly accountable in health matters. On the other hand, when the institutional or managerial requirements are absent the sole fiscal decentralization is not a guarantee of improvement for citizens’ health. 2. Does purchase centralization reduce public expenditure? Evidence from the Italian health-care system The introduction of Central Purchasing Bodies within the regional health care systems in Italy during the first decade of 2000s constituted a call for cost reduction and public expenditure restraint in the public health sector. Indeed, regional CPBs operating for local hospitals were introduced to centralize purchases of goods and services, with the aim of reducing prices and facilitate cost reductions, mainly leveraging on economies of scale and larger bargaining power. In this work, we examine this hypothesis adopting a difference-in-difference model to test the causal relationship of the introduction of regional CPBs operating in the health-care systems. Our findings show that per capita total expenditure is reduced to a range of 3-4%, according to the specification of the model, where local hospitals are supplied through a regional CPB. Specifically, this reduction is mainly driven by a subset of supplies, that is health services, while the impact on goods and other non-health services expenditure is not significant. Moreover, the obtained expenditure reduction is achieved without a significant downsizing of local services to citizens. 3. The Impact of 1974 Budget Act on U.S. Spending and Debt: a synthetic control approach The 1974 Budget Act marked a turning point in U.S. fiscal history. With the Act, Congress decisively asserted its budgetary power, becoming more independent from the President in developing the budget and setting overall levels of federal expenditures. Lawmakers at the time believed that the status quo, wherein Congress approved the budget in a piecemeal fashion, limited their budgetary authority and had caused deficits and spending to increase. In this work, we set out to discover how Congress’s solution – the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act (or, 1974 Budget Act) – ultimately fared at restraining spending and debt. More specifically we use a synthetic control model to ask what would have happened without the 1974 Budget Act and finds that after the introduction of the Act, public debt-to-GDP and public expenditures-to-GDP both increased, but less than what would have happened without the Act.
1. Valutazione della decentralizzazione della sanità e del relativo impatto sulla mortalità infantile: evidenze dai Paesi dell’Unione Europea In questo lavoro, ci proponiamo di testare gli effetti della decentralizzazione del settore sanitario sulla mortalità infantile, come proxy della qualità della salute dei cittadini, adottando come unità di analisi 25 Paesi dell’Unione Europea tra il 1995 e il 2013. Inoltre, discutiamo l’endogeneità del modello dovuta a un possibile errore di misurazione della decentralizzazione del settore sanitario, quando è approssimato dalla sola decentralizzazione fiscale. I risultati suggeriscono che gli effetti positivi della decentralizzazione fiscale sulla salute dei cittadini si verificano in contesti istituzionali nei quali le autorità centrali hanno delegato poteri politici o manageriali e hanno reso le autorità locali direttamente responsabili in materia sanitaria. Al contrario, quando i requisiti istituzionali o manageriali sono assenti, la sola decentralizzazione fiscale non è una garanzia di miglioramento della salute dei cittadini. 2. La centralizzazione degli acquisti riduce la spesa pubblica? Evidenze dal Sistema Sanitario italiano L’introduzione delle Centrali Uniche di Committenza all’interno dei sistemi sanitari regionali in Italia durante la prima decade degli anni 2000 ha rappresentato una spinta verso la riduzione dei costi e la limitazione della spesa pubblica nel settore della sanità pubblica. Infatti, le Centrali di Committenza regionali che operano a beneficio delle ASL sono state introdotte per centralizzare gli acquisti di beni e servizi, con l'obiettivo di ridurre i prezzi e favorire la riduzione dei costi, soprattutto sfruttando le economie di scala e il maggiore potere contrattuale. In questo lavoro, esaminiamo questa ipotesi adottando un modello difference-in-difference per testare la relazione causale dell'introduzione di Centrali di Committenza regionali che operano all’interno dei sistemi di sanitari. I nostri risultati mostrano che la spesa totale pro capite si è ridotta di un intervallo tra il 3 e il 4%, in base alle specifiche del modello, nei contesti in cui le ASL si approvvigionano attraverso una Centrale di Committenza regionale. In particolare, questa riduzione è principalmente guidata dai servizi sanitari, mentre l'impatto sulle spese per l’acquisto di beni e di altri servizi non sanitari non è significativo. Inoltre, la riduzione della spesa ottenuta è ottenuta senza un significativo ridimensionamento dei servizi locali ai cittadini. 3. L’impatto del Budget Act 1974 sulla Spesa e sul Debito degli Stati Uniti d’America: un’analisi con controllo sintetico Il Budget Act 1974 segnò un punto di svolta nella storia fiscale degli Stati Uniti. Con questa legge, il Congresso ha fortemente affermato il proprio potere in materia di bilancio, diventando più indipendente dal Presidente nel suo sviluppo e fissando i livelli totali della spesa federale. I legislatori del tempo credevano che lo status quo secondo il quale il Congresso approvava il budget in modo frammentario limitasse la loro autorità di bilancio e avesse causato un aumento del deficit e della spesa. In questo lavoro, mostriamo in che modo la soluzione del Congresso – il Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act del 1974 (o più semplicemente il Budget Act) – sia riuscito a frenare la spesa e il debito. Più specificatamente, adottiamo un modello di controllo sintetico per interrogarci su cosa sarebbe successo senza l’introduzione del Budget Act 1974 e otteniamo che, dopo l’introduzione della legge, il rapporto tra debito pubblico e PIL e tra spesa pubblica e PIL sono entrambi aumentati, ma meno di quanto sarebbe accaduto senza la legge.
4

Faury, Louis. "Variance-sensitive confidence intervals for parametric and offline bandits." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021IPPAT046.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Cette thèse présente des contributions récentes au problème d’optimisation sous feedback bandit, au travers de la construction d’intervalles de confiance sensibles à la variance. Nous traitons deux aspects distincts du problème: (1) la minimisation du regret pour les bandits à modèle linéaire généralisé (GLBs), une large classe de bandits paramétriques non-linéaires et (2) le problème d’optimisation de politique hors ligne sous signal bandit. Concernant (1) nous étudions les effets de la non-linéarité dans les GLBs et remettons en question la compréhension actuelle selon laquelle des hauts niveaux de non-linéarité ne peuvent être que préjudiciables à l’équilibre exploration-exploitation. Des algorithmes améliorés suivis d’une nouvelle méthode d’analyse montrent que lorsque correctement manipulé, le problème de minimisation du regret dans les GLBs n’est pas nécessairement plus dur que pour leur contrepartie linéaire. Il peut même être significativement facilité pour certains membres importants de la famille GLB comme le bandit logistique. Notre approche utilise de nouveaux ensembles de confiance sensibles à la non-linéarité au travers de la variance qu’elle impose à la fonction récompense, accompagnés d’un traitement local de la non-linéarité au travers d’une analyse dite auto-concordante. Concernant (2) nous utilisons des résultats de la littérature de l’optimisation robuste afin de construire des intervalles de confiance asymptotiques sensibles à la variance pour l’évaluation contrefactuelle de politiques. Cela permet d’assurer du conservatisme (désirable pour des agents averses au risque) lors de la recherche hors-ligne de politiques prometteuses. Cet intervalle de confiance engendre de nouveaux objectifs contrefactuels qui sont plus adaptés à des applications pratiques, car convexes et de nature composites
In this dissertation we present recent contributions to the problem of optimization under bandit feedback through the design of variance-sensitive confidence intervals. We tackle two distincts topics: (1) the regret minimization task in Generalized Linear Bandits (GLBs), a broad class of non-linear parametric bandits and (2) the problem of off-line policy optimization under bandit feedback. For (1) we study the effects of non-linearity in GLBs and challenge the current understanding that a high level of non-linearity is detrimental to the exploration-exploitation trade-off. We introduce improved algorithms as well as a novel analysis that prove that if correctly handled, the regret minimization task in GLBs is not necessarily harder than for their linear counterparts. It can even be easier for some important members of the GLB family such as the Logistic Bandit. Our approach leverages a new confidence set which captures the non-linearity of the reward signal through its variance, along with a local treatment of the non-linearity through a so-called self-concordance analysis. For (2) we leverage results from the distributionally robust optimization framework to construct asymptotic variance-sensitive confidence intervals for the counterfactual evaluation of policies. This allows to ensure conservatism (sought out by risk-averse agents) while searching off-line for promising policies. Our confidence intervals lead to new counterfactual objectives which, contrary to their predecessors, are more suited for practical deployment thanks to their convex and composite natures
5

Cowell, Paul David. "Three essays in the economics of higher education." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/28037.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This thesis presents three empirical analyses in the economics of Higher Education within the United Kingdom. The first analysis evaluates the impact of student funding reforms on participation and course choice, through the use of a difference-in-differences strategy with heterogeneous treatment effects. The results show that students who received the largest increase in study costs were less likely to move further away and also more likely to study a subject with lower graduate wage premia due to the significant reduction in the risk of investing in higher education. Students who received the largest increase in up-front financial support were more likely to attend a university further away. The second question addresses whether undergraduate subject choice is affected by changes in the expected benefits and opportunity costs of investing in HE through variation in the labour market. Students who reside in areas of high unemployment are found to be less likely to choose subjects with the largest graduate wage and employment premia. This suggests that students may be afraid of failure in challenging labour markets and instead choose to study subjects with a greater chance of success. However, lower socioeconomic status students are more likely to study subjects with the highest graduate wage and employment premia. This suggests that the students who may be the most aware of the costs, are also the most aware of the benefits. Finally, the third analysis investigates whether students who are socioeconomically disadvantaged incur a further penalty in terms of degree attainment. The results show that the most disadvantaged students outperform their advantaged counterparts. This may be due to pre-university attainment being an imperfect measure of ability in the most disadvantaged students, or that students who have had to overcome the most challenges to attend university are better-equipped and more determined to succeed.
6

Švarc, Michal. "Empirická analýza projektu: Stáže ve firmách." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-192454.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This paper is dedicated to the empirical analysis of the pilot trainee project Stáže ve firmách, which is considered as treatment in this analysis. The main objective of the empirical analysis is estimation of average treatment effect(ATE) and average treatment effect on treated(ATET) for characteristics like socioeconomic status and wage. Counterfactual methods for policy impact evaluation like Difference in Differences Estimator(DiD), First Differences Estimator(FD) and Propensity Score Matching(PSM) are used to estimation mentioned effects. This paper contains extension of Assignment Problem that is used for people matching purposes as alternative for PSM. This way of matching provides better control over creation of couples. Resulting pairs are more similar in selected characteristics due to better control during couples creation process.
7

Špaček, Martin. "Mikroekonomické dopady strukturálních fondů v neziskovém sektoru." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-162872.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
My thesis titled "Microeconomic Impact of Structural Funds in the Nonprofit Sector" focuses on the analysis of the impact of EU funds on the capacities of Czech NGOs. I dealt with the situation of public benefit companies. I have measured the impact on capacity through economic indicators derived from financial statements of organizations which are the total revenues, total staff costs, profit and total debt. Results of the analysis has been achieved by comparison of supported and unsupported organizations for the period 2006-2011 using selected methods of counterfactual impact evaluation as the difference-in-difference method and matching method. Using these methods I have been able to find a positive effect of EU Structural funds on the capacities of Czech non-profit organizations.
8

Galope, Reynold V. "Public Financing of Risky Early-Stage Technology." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2012. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/pmap_diss/46.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This dissertation examines the role of public investments in inducing small firms to develop risky, early-stage technologies. It contributes to expanding our understanding of the consequences of research, innovation, and entrepreneurship policies and programs by investigating in more depth the effect of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program on the innovation effort, ability to attract external capital, and other metrics of post-entry performance of small business start-ups using a new sample and estimation approach. This study integrated the Kauffman Firm Survey from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation with the SBIR recipient dataset from the U.S. Small Business Administration and used advances in the micro-econometrics of program evaluation to empirically construct the counterfactual outcomes of SBIR recipients. We found empirical evidence of the input additionality effect of the SBIR program. The treatment effects analyses also found a significant positive effect of SBIR on innovation propensity and employment. However, it appears that public co-financing of commercial R&D has crowded-out privately financed R&D of small business start-ups in the United States. A dollar of SBIR subsidy decreased firm-financed R&D by about $0.16. Contrary to prior SBIR studies, we did not find any significant “halo effect” or “certification effect” of receiving an SBIR award on attracting external capital. What we discovered is a different certification effect of the SBIR program: SBIR grantees are more likely to attract external patents. This finding confirms that innovation requires a portfolio of internal and external knowledge assets as theorized by David Teece and his colleagues.
9

Cruz, Daniela Filipa Fonseca. "Counterfactual impact evaluation of vocational education in Portugal." Master's thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11572.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
JEL classification: C14 – Non parametric methods; I26 – Returns to education
The Reform of the Portuguese education system, which took place in 2004, led to the introduction and rapid expansion of vocational education in public high schools. This thesis aims to assess the impacts of vocational education on students’ academic and labor market performance using a Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (CIE) approach. The dataset used in the analysis includes data for the academic years of 2008/2009, 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. For both methodological and data availability reasons, we restrict our analysis to Portuguese students without special educational needs, aged between 15 and 18 years old, who are enrolled in public high schools with tutelage of the Ministry of Education and Science, and that were enrolled in general education in the previous year (basic education). For this group of students, we find that being enrolled in vocational education has positive impacts in school performance (transition, graduation, and dropout rates) and in labor market performance (employment rate, average salary and average worked months per year). We also find that vocational education students have lower chances of proceeding to higher education. These results are robust to variations in the estimation method.
A reforma do sistema de ensino Português, que ocorreu em 2004, originou a introdução e rápida expansão do ensino profissional nas escolas secundárias públicas. Esta tese tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos da educação profissional no desempenho escolar e laboral dos alunos, utilizando a lógica de Avaliação Contrafactual de Impactos (CIE). A base de dados inclui informação dos anos letivos de 2008/2009, 2009/2010 e 2010/2011. Devido a questões metodológicas e de disponibilidade de dados restringimos a nossa análise a estudantes portugueses, sem necessidades educativas especiais, com idades entre os 15 e 18, que estão matriculados em escolas públicas sob tutela do Ministério da Educação e Ciência, e que frequentaram educação geral no ano anterior (ensino básico). Para este grupo de alunos concluímos que o ensino profissional apresenta impactos positivos no desempenho escolar (taxas de transição, de conclusão e desistência) e no desempenho laboral (taxa de emprego, salário médio e média de meses trabalhos por ano). Os nossos resultados também mostram que os estudantes do ensino profissional têm menor probabilidade de prosseguir para o ensino superior. Estes resultados são robustos face a variações do método de estimação.
10

DI, STEFANO ROBERTA. "Alternative approaches for counterfactual evaluation in the presence of a few units." Doctoral thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1553095.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The dissertation is part of the flourishing literature that estimates the causal effect of policy intervention in panel data settings with only one or a few treated and control units. In a context where many policy interventions occur at an aggregate level, the synthetic control method (SCM) literature assumes a focal role in the causal effect estimation. The thesis analyzed the SCM features, its critical issues and presented alternative approaches for the counterfactual evaluation in the presence of a few units, shedding light on how recent methodological advances contributed to this literature. The first chapter proposes a novel estimation approach that allows including units potentially affected directly or indirectly by an intervention in the donor pool: the inclusive synthetic control method (iSCM). The new methodology proposed concerns scenarios in which some of the units might be affected by spillover effects and scenarios in which there are multiple treated units and the control group is scarce and composed of units no so similar to the treated ones. The iSCM allows us to include these units safely in the donor pool and then eliminate post-intervention effects. Moreover, it allows us to estimate the potential presence of spillover effects. The second chapter illustrates how to use iSCM by estimating the economic impact of Germany reunification on West Germany's GDP per capita, allowing for spillover on Austria. The third chapter applies a recent methodological extension of the SCM, the Kernel Balancing, that improves estimation accuracy and is applicable in a wider set of contexts. Particularly, the chapter aims to estimate the regional economic impact of joining the euro area for the latecomers, i.e., the countries that adopted the euro after 2002. The use of regions as a unit of analysis and recent advancement in the SCM field allows us to tackle Optimal Currency Area (OCA) literature, considering the core-periphery dynamics.

Books on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Dvoulety, Ondrej. Reflection on the Usage of the Counterfactual Impact Evaluation Method to Quantify the Effects of Public Subsidies at Firm Level. 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road, London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom: SAGE Publications Inc., 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781529628913.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Stalnaker, Robert C. Knowledge and Conditionals. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198810346.001.0001.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
A set of interconnected chapters on topics in the theory of knowledge. Part 1 considers the concept of knowledge, its logical properties, and its relation to belief and partial belief, or credence. It includes a discussion of belief revision, two discussions of reflection principles, a chapter about the status of self-locating knowledge and belief, a chapter about the evaluation of normative principles of inductive reasoning, and a development and defense of a contextualist account of knowledge. Part 2 is concerned with conditional propositions, and conditional reasoning, with chapters on the logic and formal semantics of conditionals, a discussion of the relation between indicative and subjunctive conditionals and of the question whether indicative conditionals express propositions, a chapter considering the relation between counterfactual propositions and objective chance, a critique of an attempt to give a metaphysical reduction of counterfactual propositions to nonconditional matters of fact, and a discussion of dispositional properties, and of a dispositional theory of chance.
3

Bjorkman, Bronwyn M., and Claire Halpert. In an imperfect world: Deriving the typology of counterfactual marking. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198718208.003.0009.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Much work has focused on the use of “fake”’ past in marking counterfactual clauses. This chapter focuses instead on the contribution of aspect, evaluating claims that some languages require both fake past and fake (imperfective) aspect in counterfactual clauses. We argue that this appearance is an illusion, resulting from the fact that past tense forms are aspectually underspecified in many languages: this underspecification gives rise to an apparent requirement for imperfective marking in some languages (e.g. French, Zulu), but an apparent requirement for perfective marking in others (e.g. Palestinian Arabic). Finally, we suggest that in languages that truly require imperfective marking in counterfactuals, the requirement is for imperfective simpliciter, independent of tense (Hindi, Persian). The resulting typological picture has implications for how fake temporal marking is structurally represented in counterfactual clauses.
4

Solstad, Torgrim, and Oliver Bott. Causality and Causal Reasoning in Natural Language. Edited by Michael R. Waldmann. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199399550.013.32.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This chapter provides a combined overview of theoretical and psycholinguistic approaches to causality in language. The chapter’s main phenomenological focus is on causal relations as expressed intra-clausally by verbs (e.g., break, open) and between sentences by discourse markers (e.g., because, therefore). Special attention is given to implicit causality verbs that are argued to trigger expectations of explanations to occur in subsequent discourse. The chapter also discusses linguistic expressions that do not encode causation as such, but that seem to be dependent on a causal model for their adequate evaluation, such as counterfactual conditionals. The discussion of the phenomena is complemented by an overview of important aspects of their cognitive processing as revealed by psycholinguistic experimentation.
5

Yen, Wendy. Debiasing the hindsight bias: A review. 2005.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Crespo, Inés, Hadil Karawani, and Frank Veltman. Expressing Expectations. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198739548.003.0009.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This chapter addresses a variety of topics: (i) conditionals (there is a third kind of conditionals, somewhere between indicatives and counterfactuals); (ii) relative gradable adjectives (how do they get their evaluative force?); and (iii) generic sentences (why aren’t they all equally general?). What these topics have in common is that one cannot explain the meaning—not even the logical properties—of the expressions concerned without explaining how they affect people’s expectations. This can best be done in a framework in which the meaning of a sentence is not equated with its truth conditions but with its (potential) impact on the intentional state of an addressee.
7

Roberts, John T. Laws of Nature. Edited by Paul Humphreys. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199368815.013.20.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Scientists (and scientifically literate laypersons) regard certain regularities or uniformities in the course of nature—but not others—as laws of nature; the ones they regard as laws they allow to play a distinguished role in explanation and in evaluating counterfactuals. The philosophical problem about laws is: What laws of nature could be such that this would be a reasonable and fruitful way for scientists to proceed? This article explores the major current philosophical theories of laws, including dispositional essentialism and the best-system analysis. It also explores several major questions about laws, including the question of their modal status, nomic necessity, the question of Humeanism, the question of hedged laws (i.e., ceteris paribus laws), and the question of governing.
8

Hunt, Luke William. Entrapment, Prerogative Power, and the Rule of Law. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190904999.003.0006.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
Chapter 5 first argues that the subjective test for entrapment is a theoretically and practically untenable method of evaluating sting operations: the test is based upon a decision procedure that gives rise to questions about the metaphysics of counterfactual conditionals, which raise more pressing epistemological, ethical, and political problems. Accordingly, the second goal of this chapter is to examine the limits of sting operations more broadly. This is done by examining the extent to which the police are justified in using discretionary power to break what would otherwise be the law. The chapter concludes by setting forth a theory regarding the limits of such powers—limits that correspond to the limits of executive national security emergency powers in the liberal tradition. The upshot is that any theory of entrapment and sting operations must exist within the broader constraints upon the police’s power to break the law.
9

Pettit, Philip. The Birth of Ethics. Edited by Kinch Hoekstra. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190904913.001.0001.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The Birth of Ethics begins from a counterfactual world, Erewhon, where the residents are like us in various respects, including the use of natural language, but lack any sense of ethics or morality. The claim is that the inhabitants of that society would more or less inevitably develop certain practices and concepts, and that this development would effectively make them into moral creatures: agents versed in concepts like those of good and bad, right and wrong, and ready to apply them in assessing and regulating their own behavior and that of others. Anxious to establish their reputations with one another, they would use language to communicate their attitudes, making commitments not to prove misleading in the avowal of beliefs and desires, and in the pledging of intentions and actions. And as a result of doing that, they would inevitably evolve evaluative, regulative concepts like those of moral desirability and responsibility. This narrative, if persuasive, serves a number of important purposes. It naturalizes morality insofar as it explains how people could enter ethical space as a result of cumulative, naturalistically intelligible steps. It provides the basis for analyzing various moral concepts, since the referents of the concepts that emerge in Erewhon offer plausible candidates for the referents of our corresponding terms. And, finally, it gives morality a distinctive rationale and cast. The practices of commitment that the narrative places at the source of morality are associated with the practices, arguably, that make us persons: they require each of us to speak for a self that we invite others to rely on, and to organize our lives around that bespoken, beholden persona. Morality, in the emerging story, goes hand in hand with personhood in that sense; they are two sides of the one coin.

Book chapters on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Balke, Alexander, and Judea Pearl. "Probabilistic Evaluation of Counterfactual Queries." In Probabilistic and Causal Inference, 237–54. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3501714.3501733.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Pereira, Luís Moniz, Francisco C. Santos, and António Barata Lopes. "AI Modelling of Counterfactual Thinking for Judicial Reasoning and Governance of Law." In Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the Law, 263–79. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-41264-6_14.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
AbstractWhen speaking of moral judgment, we refer to a function of recognizing appropriate or condemnable actions and the possibility of choice between them by agents. Their ability to construct possible causal sequences enables them to devise alternatives in which choosing one implies setting aside others. This internal deliberation requires a cognitive ability, namely that of constructing counterfactual arguments. These serve not just to analyse possible futures, being prospective, but also to analyse past situations, by imagining the gains or losses resulting from alternatives to the actions actually carried out, given evaluative information subsequently known.Counterfactual thinking is in thus a prerequisite for AI agents concerned with Law cases, in order to pass judgement and, additionally, for evaluation of the ongoing governance of such AI agents. Moreover, given the wide cognitive empowerment of counterfactual reasoning in the human individual, namely in making judgments, the question arises of how the presence of individuals with this ability can improve cooperation and consensus in populations of otherwise self-regarding individuals.Our results, using Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), suggest that counterfactual thinking fosters coordination in collective action problems occurring in large populations and has limited impact on cooperation dilemmas in which such coordination is not required.
3

Martins, Pedro S. "Public Policy, Big Data, and Counterfactual Evaluation: An Illustration from an Employment Activation Programme." In Data-Driven Policy Impact Evaluation, 149–63. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78461-8_10.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Guo, Ruocheng, Jundong Li, and Huan Liu. "Counterfactual Evaluation of Treatment Assignment Functions with Networked Observational Data." In Proceedings of the 2020 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, 271–79. Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611976236.31.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Zhang, Xuezhong, Libin Dai, Qingming Peng, Ruizhi Tang, and Xinwei Li. "A Survey of Counterfactual Explanations: Definition, Evaluation, Algorithms, and Applications." In Advances in Natural Computation, Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 905–12. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20738-9_99.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

d’Hombres, Beatrice, and Giulia Santangelo. "Use of Administrative Data for Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies in Europe: Country and Time Comparisons." In Data-Driven Policy Impact Evaluation, 271–87. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78461-8_17.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Jones, Kelly W., Allen Blackman, and Rodrigo Arriagada. "Methods to Advance Understanding of Tenure Security: Impact Evaluation for Rigorous Evidence on Tenure Interventions." In Land Tenure Security and Sustainable Development, 291–312. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81881-4_14.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
AbstractThe impact of land tenure interventions on sustainable development outcomes is affected by political, social, economic, and environmental factors, and as a result, multiple types of evidence are needed to advance our understanding. This chapter discusses the use of counterfactual impact evaluation to identify causal relationships between tenure security and sustainable development outcomes. Rigorous evidence that tenure security leads to better outcomes for nature and people is thin and mixed. Using a theory of change as a conceptual model can help inform hypothesis testing and promote rigorous study design. Careful attention to data collection and use of experimental and quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods can advance understanding of causal connections between tenure security interventions and development outcomes.
8

Battistin, Erich, and Marco Bertoni. "Counterfactuals with Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Variation." In Texts in Quantitative Political Analysis, 37–70. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12982-7_3.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
AbstractInference about the causal effects of a policy intervention requires knowledge of what would have happened to the outcome of the units affected had the policy not taken place. Since this counterfactual quantity is never observed, the empirical investigation of causal effects must deal with a missing data problem. Random variation in the assignment to the policy offers a solution, under some assumptions. We discuss identification of policy effects when participation to the policy is determined by a lottery (randomized designs), when participation is only partially influenced by a lottery (instrumental variation), and when participation depends on eligibility criteria making a subset of participant and non-participant units as good as randomly assigned to the policy (regression discontinuity designs). We offer guidelines for empirical analysis in each of these settings and provide some applications of the methods proposed to the evaluation of education policies.
9

Andrade, Yan, Nícollas Silva, Adriano Pereira, Elisa Tuler, Cleverson Vieira, Marcelo Guimarães, Diego Dias, and Leonardo Rocha. "Integrating Counterfactual Evaluations into Traditional Interactive Recommendation Frameworks." In Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2023, 635–47. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36805-9_41.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Höllig, Jacqueline, Aniek F. Markus, Jef de Slegte, and Prachi Bagave. "Semantic Meaningfulness: Evaluating Counterfactual Approaches for Real-World Plausibility and Feasibility." In Communications in Computer and Information Science, 636–59. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44067-0_32.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Conference papers on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Yang, Xiaoyu, Stephen Obadinma, Huasha Zhao, Qiong Zhang, Stan Matwin, and Xiaodan Zhu. "SemEval-2020 Task 5: Counterfactual Recognition." In Proceedings of the Fourteenth Workshop on Semantic Evaluation. Stroudsburg, PA, USA: International Committee for Computational Linguistics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2020.semeval-1.40.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Prado-Romero, Mario Alfonso, and Giovanni Stilo. "GRETEL: Graph Counterfactual Explanation Evaluation Framework." In CIKM '22: The 31st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3511808.3557608.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Coston, Amanda, Alan Mishler, Edward H. Kennedy, and Alexandra Chouldechova. "Counterfactual risk assessments, evaluation, and fairness." In FAT* '20: Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3351095.3372851.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Keane, Mark T., Eoin M. Kenny, Eoin Delaney, and Barry Smyth. "If Only We Had Better Counterfactual Explanations: Five Key Deficits to Rectify in the Evaluation of Counterfactual XAI Techniques." In Thirtieth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-21}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2021/609.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
In recent years, there has been an explosion of AI research on counterfactual explanations as a solution to the problem of eXplainable AI (XAI). These explanations seem to offer technical, psychological and legal benefits over other explanation techniques. We survey 100 distinct counterfactual explanation methods reported in the literature. This survey addresses the extent to which these methods have been adequately evaluated, both psychologically and computationally, and quantifies the shortfalls occurring. For instance, only 21% of these methods have been user tested. Five key deficits in the evaluation of these methods are detailed and a roadmap, with standardised benchmark evaluations, is proposed to resolve the issues arising; issues, that currently effectively block scientific progress in this field.
5

Saito, Yuta, and Thorsten Joachims. "Counterfactual Evaluation and Learning for Interactive Systems." In KDD '22: The 28th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3534678.3542601.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Yuan, Yining, Kevin McAreavey, Shujun Li, and Weiru Liu. "Multi-Granular Evaluation of Diverse Counterfactual Explanations." In 16th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0012349900003636.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Felicioni, Nicolò. "Enhancing Counterfactual Evaluation and Learning for Recommendation Systems." In RecSys '22: Sixteenth ACM Conference on Recommender Systems. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3523227.3547429.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

McInerney, James, Brian Brost, Praveen Chandar, Rishabh Mehrotra, and Benjamin Carterette. "Counterfactual Evaluation of Slate Recommendations with Sequential Reward Interactions." In KDD '20: The 26th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3394486.3403229.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Xie, Zhongbin, Vid Kocijan, Thomas Lukasiewicz, and Oana-Maria Camburu. "Counter-GAP: Counterfactual Bias Evaluation through Gendered Ambiguous Pronouns." In Proceedings of the 17th Conference of the European Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics. Stroudsburg, PA, USA: Association for Computational Linguistics, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2023.eacl-main.272.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Huang, Po-Sen, Huan Zhang, Ray Jiang, Robert Stanforth, Johannes Welbl, Jack Rae, Vishal Maini, Dani Yogatama, and Pushmeet Kohli. "Reducing Sentiment Bias in Language Models via Counterfactual Evaluation." In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2020. Stroudsburg, PA, USA: Association for Computational Linguistics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2020.findings-emnlp.7.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Reports on the topic "Counterfactual evaluation":

1

Pais Mamede, Ricardo, Teresa Fernandes, and Ana Alexandrino Silva. Counterfactual impact evaluation of EU funded enterprise support in Portugal. DINÂMIA'CET-IUL, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.15847/dinamiacet-iul.wp.2015.05.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Cumberbatch, Janice, Fabian Hinds, Leonardo Corral, Cassandra Rogers, Maja Schling, Naijun Zhou, and Michele H. Lemay. The Impact of Coastal Infrastructure Improvements on Economic Growth: Evidence from Barbados. Inter-American Development Bank, October 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011763.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This paper presents the first rigorous impact evaluation of a shoreline stabilization program in Barbados and attempts to assess whether shoreline stabilization investments indeed have beneficial effects on medium-term economic growth in Small Island Developing States through stimulating tourism demand and real estate development. The analysis relies on a carefully designed geographic information systems (GIS) dataset, which comprises extensive panel data from Barbados' touristic West and South Coasts on key infrastructure, beach characteristics, and real estate activity, as well as remotely-sensed luminosity data as a proxy of economic growth. The synthetic control method is employed to construct a counterfactual from a combination of all control beach sites and subsequently estimate program impact on per capita luminosity as a proxy for GDP p.c.. Results indicate that even in the first three years after treatment, economic effects are positive and indicate a strong positive trend. This suggests that shoreline stabilization works may not only help preserve fragile ecological conditions, but further lead to sustainable growth in the local economy.
3

Bukstein, Daniel, and Néstor Gandelman. Glass Ceiling in Research: Evidence from a National Program in Uruguay. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011792.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
This paper presents evidence that female researchers have 7.1 percentage points lower probability of being accepted into the largest national research support program in Uruguay than male researchers. They also have lower research productivity than their male counterparts. Differences in observable characteristics explain 4.9 of the 7.1 percentage point gap. The gender gap is wider at the higher ranks of the program consistent with the existence of a glass ceiling. The results are robust to issues of bidirectionality (impact of research productivity on the probability of accessing the program and impact of the program on research productivity), joint determination and correlation of variables (e.g. having a Ph.D., publishing, and tutoring), and initial productivity effects (positive results at early stages may have long-term effects on career development). The paper presents three hypotheses for the gender gap (an original sin in the organization of the system, biases in the composition of evaluation committees, and differences in field of concentration) and finds some evidence for each. Glass ceilings are stronger in the fields where women are overrepresented among the applicants to the system: medical sciences, natural sciences, and humanities. Finally, it presents a counterfactual distribution of the program in the absence of discriminatory treatment of women and discusses the economic costs of the gender gap.
4

Bonhomme, Stéphane, and Angela Denis. Estimating individual responses when tomorrow matters. Madrid: Banco de España, February 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.53479/36092.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
We propose a regression-based approach to estimate how individuals’ expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. We provide conditions under which average partial effects based on regression estimates recover structural effects. We propose a practical three-step estimation method that relies on subjective beliefs data. We illustrate our approach in a model of consumption and saving, focusing on the impact of an income tax that not only changes current income but also affects beliefs about future income. Applying our approach to Italian survey data, we find that individuals’ beliefs matter for evaluating the impact of tax policies on consumption decisions.
5

Peña-Torres, Julio, Kailin Kroetz, James N. Sanchirico, and David Corderi. Evaluation of the Chilean Jack Mackerel ITQ System. Inter-American Development Bank, March 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011723.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The debate in commercial fishery management has evolved from whether well-defined rights are necessary for sustainability to measuring the impacts of different rights-based system designs. Most assessments are on developed world fisheries. Using a unique collection of datasets, we develop counterfactuals to evaluate the impacts of the Chilean Jack Mackerelcatch share program. We investigate vessel and trip characteristics, as well as trip costs and revenues, before and after the implementation of the program. We find an increase in higher value products and associated revenue, as well as consolidation of catch on larger vessels, vessels taking longer trips, and catching more per trip. Overall, we estimate that the program led to a measureable increase in fishing profits, mainly due to movement toward higher value products. A back-of-the-envelope calculation results in an implied annual quota rental rate on the order of ~15-19% of ex-vessel prices.
6

Impact Evaluation of the Business Development Program for the Software Industry in Uruguay. Inter-American Development Bank, September 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008978.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
Abstract:
The purpose of this impact evaluation is to assess the success of the Business Development Program for the Software Industry in Uruguay in achieving and sustaining results over time. The evaluation had six general objectives: The impact assessment combined an overall program lifecycle analysis with an assessment of specific program outputs and outcome. In regard to the program lifecycle, Dalberg Global Development Advisors looked at four stages: (i) design of the program (assumptions and diagnostic studies that influenced program component choices; alignment with country strategy and reflection of country realities); (ii) implementation (quality standards and best practices; monitoring of program activities according to set timelines; quality of internal processes; and continuity of dialogue between CUTI and MIF); (iii) supervision (MIF's level of involvement in program follow-up; actions taken by MIF to implement intermediate recommendations; checks and balances, adaptability, and process for overcoming obstacles); and (iv) evaluation (review of outputs/outcomes; planned vs. actual outputs; accomplishment of goals; quality of implementation and supervision; response to beneficiary needs; and significance of observed change and counterfactual).

To the bibliography