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Gunawan, Liem Stefani Meilia. "OPTIMIZED MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS CONSIDERING THE TRADE-OFF OF ESTIMATE SCHEDULE AND COST AT COMPLETION." Dimensi Utama Teknik Sipil 6, no. 2 (October 31, 2019): 26–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.9744/duts.6.2.26-37.
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Nowadays, the minimization of project time and cost is an important issue. However, time and cost problems are difficult to solve. They are affected by the uncertain factor. Then, the construction project always fails to achieve the effectiveness of time and cost performance. It causes delays and cost overrun. In this research, SOS-NN-LSTM is required to establish the estimate schedule to completion (ESTC) and estimate cost to completion (ECTC) prediction model based on time now performance. Then, the prediction model will be integrated with MOSOS to obtain the optimal prediction value. The integration is needed because there is no direct equation to calculate the ESTC and ECTC. The Pareto curve identified based on the prediction values of MOSOS. The Pareto curve is used to determine the optimal trade-off between project duration and project cost. Then, the indifference curve is used to solve the trade-off problem between estimate schedule at completion (ESAC) dan estimate cost at completion (ECAC) which give the decision-maker preference.
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Narbaev, Timur, and Alberto De Marco. "An Earned Schedule-based regression model to improve cost estimate at completion." International Journal of Project Management 32, no. 6 (August 2014): 1007–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.12.005.
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Wahyuni, Elvi, and Bambang Hendrawan. "ANALISIS KINERJA PROYEK “Y”MENGGUNAKAN METODE EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT (Studi Kasus di PT Asian Sealand Engineering)." JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 2, no. 1 (March 29, 2018): 60–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.30871/jaba.v2i1.784.
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PT Asia Sealand Engineering is a company engaged in offshore industry services. This study aims to profit. (EVM). The EVM concept of the three indicators is the Work Schedule Budget (BCWS), Work Performance Cost Budget (BCWP) and Actual Cost of Work Performance (ACWP). From these indicators are then analyzed to Cost Variance (CV), Cost Performance Index (CPI), Variance Schedule (SV) and Index Performance Schedule (SPI). After these talent indexes can be calculated Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimate to Complete (ETC) and Time Estimate (TE). The project under study is project "Y" module 301 train 3, bacth 5 with job specification in Structure section. The results show that the project cost overrun and sechedule overrun. This means focusing the project down. Estimated cost of project lit (ETC) is Rp. 710.980.113.00. Total total cost can be seen from the calculation of EAC is Rp. 7.595.984.113, - and the estimated time to generate TE is 302 days.
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Zakariyya, Bagus, Ahmad Ridwan, and Suwarno Suwarno. "Analisis Biaya Dan Jadwal Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Metode Earned Value." Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi & Teknik Sipil 3, no. 2 (October 30, 2020): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.30737/jurmateks.v3i2.1197.
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The construction of the Trenggalek District Health Office Building is a large-scale construction project. Large-scale projects often have performance issues. It is necessary to control costs and schedules for the project to go according to plan. Research using the Earned Value Method aims to find out the performance index, estimate the cost and time of completion of the work. They thus obtained corrections that must be made to the progress of the project. The results of the study in the 12th week were Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) amounting to Rp1,946,626,471.64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) amounted to Rp1,319,204,394.05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) of Rp1,181,554,085.52. Performance costs benefit; Cost Varian (CV) of Rp137,660,308.53 or Cost Performance Index (CPI) is worth 1,117>1. Schedule performance is delayed, Schedule Varian (SV) of -Rp627,422,077.59 or Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is worth 0.678<1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) of Rp3,483,730,479.63 benefited Rp405,885,332.51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) for 29,707 weeks, slow 5,707 weeks.Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek merupakan proyek konstruksi berskala besar.Pada proyek berskala besar sering terjadi permasalahan kinerja. Oleh karena itu perlu pengendalian biaya dan jadwal agar proyek berjalan sesuai rencana. Penelitian ini menggunakan Metode Earned Value dengan tujuan agar dikeetahui indek kinerja, dan dapat memperkirakan biaya dan waktu penyelesaian pekerjaan, sehingga diperoleh koreksi yang harus dilakukan untuk kemajuan proyek. Hasil penelitian pada minggu ke-12 adalah Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS) sebesar Rp1.946.626.471,64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) sebesar Rp1.319.204.394,05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) sebesar Rp1.181.554.085,52. Kinerja biaya mendapat keuntungan, Cost Varian (CV) sebesar Rp137.660.308,53 atau Cost Performance Index (CPI) bernilai 1,117>1. Kinerja jadwal mengalami keterlambatan, Schedule Varian (SV) sebesar -Rp627.422.077,59 atau Schedule Performance Index (SPI) bernilai 0,678 < 1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) sebesar Rp3.483.730.479,63 mendapat keuntungan sebesar Rp405.885.332,51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) selama 29,707 minggu, lambat 5,707 minggu.
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Nadafi, Samira, Seyed Hamed Moosavirad, and Shahram Ariafar. "Predicting the project time and costs using EVM based on gray numbers." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 26, no. 9 (October 21, 2019): 2107–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-07-2018-0291.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine the project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using interval gray numbers (IGNs).Design/methodology/approachThe earned value management (EVM) method based on the IGN has been developed.FindingsThe EVM method based on the IGN has been verified by a numerical example that can be applied to construction projects.Practical implicationsThe EVM method, based on the gray numbers, reduces the budget and time shortage risk. Also, using this method, the managers would not be restricted to provide very exact values in their progress reports in the non-deterministic conditions.Originality/valueOne notable and significant point in all projects during the execution process is to estimate the project completion time and cost. However, non-deterministic conditions for both planned and actual physical completion percentage of projects have not been considered for predicting the project completion time and cost in the literature. Therefore, the novelty of this paper is the prediction of project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using IGN.
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Dang, Chau Ngoc, and Long Le-Hoai. "Revisiting storey enclosure method for early estimation of structural building construction cost." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 25, no. 7 (August 20, 2018): 877–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-07-2015-0111.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop several predictive models for estimating the structural construction cost and establish range estimation for the structural construction cost using design information available in early stages of residential building projects. Design/methodology/approach Information about residential building projects is collected based on project documents from construction companies with regard to the design parameters and the actual structural construction costs at completion. Storey enclosure method (SEM) is fundamental for determining the building design parameters, forming the potential variables and developing the cost estimation models using regression analysis. Nonparametric bootstrap method is used to establish range estimation for the structural construction cost. Findings A model which is developed from an integration of advanced SEM, principle component analysis and regression analysis is robust in terms of predictability. In terms of range estimation, cumulative probability-based range estimates and confidence intervals are established. While cumulative probability-based range estimates provide information about the level of uncertainty included in the estimate, confidence intervals provide information about the variability of the estimate. Such information could be very crucial for management decisions in early stages of residential building projects. Originality/value This study could provide practitioners with a better understanding of the uncertainty and variability included in the cost estimate. Hence, they could make effective improvements on cost-related management approaches to enhance project cost performance.
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Kamyabniya, Afshin, Seyed Mohammad Seyedhoseini, and Saied Yaghoubi. "Project time and cost estimate at completion based on non-parametric resampling with interval risk." International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering 21, no. 4 (2015): 458. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijise.2015.072729.
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Jie, Deng, and Jian Wei. "Estimating Construction Project Duration and Costs upon Completion Using Monte Carlo Simulations and Improved Earned Value Management." Buildings 12, no. 12 (December 8, 2022): 2173. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12122173.
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Earned value management (EVM) is widely used when monitoring and estimating operations related to construction projects. As the scope and complexity of construction projects expand, traditional EVM is sometimes ineffective and even results in conclusions that are contrary to the actual situation. Additionally, the estimate produced by EVM is a deterministic value that does not account for the uncertainty of activities involved in a construction project. This study proposes an estimation approach that combines an improved EVM, critical path method (CPM), program evaluation and review technique (PERT), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The contribution is threefold. Firstly, a path-based schedule measurement approach is described using network diagrams and CPM to capture the logical relationships among activities. Secondly, the resource input categorizes activities to improve the accuracy of the duration and cost estimates. The remaining duration and cost will be estimated based on the execution performance of the activities in the same category. Thirdly, PERT and MCS approaches are used to reveal the uncertainty of estimates upon completion by replacing a deterministic value with a possible completion range. An experimental research study was used to apply the proposed approach. The result displayed that the commercial expansion project faced serious schedule delays and cost overruns. Based on the result, the project manager should focus highly on activities J, H, and G (in order of priority) and take corrective actions. In conclusion, the proposed approach demonstrates good performance when identifying deviations, estimating precise results, and determining the importance (priority) of activities that need to be controlled.
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Babar, Suqrat, Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, and Bilal Ayub. "Estimated Cost at Completion: Integrating Risk into Earned Value Management." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 143, no. 3 (March 2017): 04016104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001245.
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Krajňák, Marek, and Renáta Bašková. "The Cost Monitoring of the Construction Machinery with Using the Stochastic Progress-Based S-curves." Selected Scientific Papers - Journal of Civil Engineering 10, no. 1 (June 1, 2015): 57–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/sspjce-2015-0006.
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Abstract Contribution presents methodology for evaluating at-completion project performance status. Accurate cost and schedule project forecasts are difficult to generate when considering the impact of such events as unforeseen cost changes, material delays, scope deviation, changes to the project execution plan and poor subcontractor performance. In reality, the original estimate may be considered the first project forecast and at the point of project completion, the latest updated estimate (last forecast) and the actual amount of what is being expended should be the same. Final project performance is determined by comparing the planned budget and project duration, with the expected forecasted final budget and elapsed time. The stochastic S-curve methodology permits objective evaluation of project performance without the limitations inherent in a deterministic approach. This paper used the stochastic S curve to monitor the cost and time consumption in operation of the construction machines. The contribution presents a partial outcome from the dissertation thesis called the Interactive tools for resource optimization in construction.
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Gayek, Jonathan E. "Stability of the Cost Performance Index and an Estimate-at-Completion for Space-System Related Contracts." Journal of Cost Analysis & Management 6, no. 2 (January 2004): 36–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15411656.2004.10462422.
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Kim, Deborah B., Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, and Chad A. Millette. "Revisiting reliability of estimates at completion for department of defense contracts." Journal of Public Procurement 19, no. 3 (September 2, 2019): 186–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jopp-02-2018-0006.
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Purpose Within earned value management, the cost performance index (CPI) and the critical ratio (CR) are used to generate the estimates at completion (EACs). According to the research in the 1990s, estimating the final contract’s cost at completion (CAC) using EACCR is a quicker predictor of the actual final cost versus using EACCPI. This paper aims to investigate whether this trend stills holds for modern department of defense contracts. Design/methodology/approach Accessing the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) database, 451 contracts consisting of 863 contract line item numbers (CLINs) were initially retrieved and analyzed in three stages. The first replicated the work conducted in 1990s. The second stage entailed calculating 95 per cent confidence intervals and hypothesis tests regarding percentage accuracy of EACs for a contract’s final CAC. Lastly, regression analysis was conducted to characterize major, moderate and minor influencers on EAC reliability. Findings For modern contracts, EACCR aligns more with EACCPI and no longer demonstrates early accuracy of a contract’s final CAC. Contract percentage completion strongly reduced the per cent error of estimating CAC, while cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts and those with no work breakdown structure greater than Level 2 negatively affected accuracy. Social implications To militate against optimism of early assessment of a contract's true cost. Originality/value This paper provides empirical evidence that EACCR behaves more like EACCPI with respect to modern contracts, suggesting that today’s contracts have relatively high SPI. Therefore, caution is warranted for program managers when estimating the CAC from contract initiation up to and slightly beyond the mid-point of completion.
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Kurniawan, Mohammad Irfandio, Diah Ayu Restuti Wulandari, Diah Ayu Restuti Wulandari, Julistyana Tistogondo, and Julistyana Tistogondo. "Evaluation Of Construction Project Time And Cost Control Based On Earned Value And Crash Project Method." Neutron 21, no. 1 (July 31, 2021): 20–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.29138/neutron.v21i1.121.
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Project development and how to control time and costs in the construction project of a public junior high school 1 Surabaya. This research was conducted with the aim of knowing and comparing the amount of duration and cost after acceleration by using the alternative Earned Value Analysis. The case study in this research takes the construction project of a public junior high school 1 Surabaya which is located in Surabaya. The data needed in this study include the S curve, recapitulation of project cost calculations, a list of budget plans (RAB), and a list of unit wage prices for workers. The research method used is to design network planning, calculate the cost variance and variance schedule for each activity that changes due to changes in the duration of implementation, acceleration of work duration, and determination of the optimum cost and duration due to the application of the Earned Value Analysis method. For the calculation of the variance Schedule on week 34 shows a positive result of Rp. 109,550,470. For the calculation of the cost variance from week 34 shows - Rp. 2,488,159. For the calculation of Estimate at completion (EAC) on week 34 of Rp. 6,663,998,229. For the calculation of Estimate temporary schedule, the evaluation week 34 experienced a delay of 53 days from the original schedule. So the work completion time is 233 calendar days
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Shuaibu, Ali Maianguwa, Maryam Nuraini Muhammad, and Nasir Rabiu. "Utilization of fuzzy critical path method and fuzzy program evaluation and review technique for building a hydroelectric power station." Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences 8, no. 2b (June 25, 2022): 21–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/dujopas.v8i2b.3.
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In this paper, fuzzy critical path method and fuzzy program evaluation and review technique are used to calculate the earliest project completion time for constructing a hydroelectric power plant project. Fuzzy trapezoidal numbers are used to estimate the activity time and determine the range of pessimistic to optimistic variation of time. Furthermore, the minimum and maximum times of project completion duration were calculated by using arithmetic operations and ranking of fuzzy trapezoidal numbers. These hybrid methods are able to deal with the limitations associated with classical critical path method and program evaluation and review technique. The fuzzy techniques were applied to network activities in a manner similar to the classical methods for optimizing the project completion duration, thereby minimizing the cost of the project. Analysis was carried out to determine the critical path through the use of fuzzy critical path method. The fuzzy program evaluation and review technique was also used to determine the probability of completing the project at a scheduled time. These two methods were then compared and the most probable scenarios were analyzed. Finally, it was concluded that fuzzy program evaluation and review technique is better than fuzzy critical path method and more efficient in terms of early project completion time.
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Nisar, Sabahat, and Rabia Asif. "Factors leading to failures of infrastructure development projects in Pakistan: A systematic literature review." Management Science Letters 13, no. 1 (2023): 11–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2022.11.001.
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Public sector development projects are found to have poor repute in terms of completion within assigned cost and time. Almost every 2nd project is impacted by financial burdens and time delays. The aim of this literature review is to highlight the potential factors that impact the completion time and estimated cost with respect to public sector infrastructure development projects in Pakistan. 39 sub-factors have been identified from 32 existing research which are then classified into 8 main factors. The main factors include administrative issues, improper financial plans, market risks, input cost estimates, poor corporate governance, legal issues, technical matters errors, and environmental issues. The results of this systematic literature review will provide policymakers with oversight on how to formulate effective strategies regarding cost cutting and timely execution of the infrastructure development projects in Pakistan.
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Cheng, Min-Yuan, and Nhat-Duc Hoang. "INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF CONSTRUCTION COST AT COMPLETION USING LEAST SQUARES SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 20, no. 2 (March 10, 2014): 223–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2013.801891.
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Completing a project within the planned budget is the bottom-line of construction companies. To achieve this goal, periodic cost estimation is vitally important not only in the planning phase, but also in the execution phase. Due to high uncertainty in operational environment, point estimation of project cost is oftentimes not sufficient to assist the decision-making process. This study utilizes Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), machine learning based interval estimation (MLIE), and Differential Evolution (DE) to establish a novel model for predicting construction project cost. LS-SVM is a supervised learning technique used for regression analysis. MLIE is employed for inference of prediction intervals. Moreover, our model deploys DE in the cross validation process to search for the optimal values of tuning parameters. The newly developed model, named as EAC-LSPIM, yields results consisting of a point estimate coupled with lower and upper prediction limits, at a certain level of confidence, to accentuate uncertainty. Simulation and performance comparison demonstrate that the new model is capable of delivering accurate and reliable forecasting results.
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Gumilang, Dicky, and Dennis Timothy. "PERENCANAAN MANAJEMEN PROYEK DALAM PERAWATAN APU GTCP131-9B PT. GARUDA INDONESIA." Inaque : Journal of Industrial and Quality Engineering 10, no. 2 (December 27, 2022): 117–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.34010/iqe.v10i2.7308.
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The air transportation industry in Indonesia is growing rapidly and is very competitive. Aircraft fleet maintenance is an important factor in supporting airlines to compete in the local and global industry. On the other hand, delays in the completion of fleet maintenance can result in delays in flight schedules and this is very detrimental to the airline and passengers. This is a challenge for business actors in the aircraft maintenance sector because of the risk of being penalized for delays that occur. Therefore, this study aims to reduce the risk of late fines faced by aircraft maintenance business actors. With project management, the company is expected to be able to produce effective and efficient maintenance activities. This is very much needed by the company in producing optimal output and has a great impact on airlines that use aircraft maintenance services. In this study, the evaluation of project management uses the Critical Path Method (CPM), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to evaluate the preparation of aircraft maintenance activities and the Crashing method if acceleration is needed in completing maintenance activities in accordance with agreed agreement. With the preparation of good project management, it is possible to estimate the time and cost needed to complete a project so as to minimize delays and losses in completion. The project management planning used in this project resulted in an accelerated completion of 3.5 days with an additional cost of $ 8,958.23.
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ELSAID ISMAIL MAGOUR, ISMAIL MOHAMED. "Forecasting Accurate Cost Estimate at Completion Using Earned Value Management Along with 6 Sigma Method for Running Projects." International Review of Management and Business Research 7, no. 2 (June 1, 2018): 626–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.30543/7-2(2018)-30.
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Kareem Kamoona, Karrar Raoof, and Cenk Budayan. "Implementation of Genetic Algorithm Integrated with the Deep Neural Network for Estimating at Completion Simulation." Advances in Civil Engineering 2019 (May 2, 2019): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/7081073.
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In construction project management, there are several factors influencing the final project cost. Among various approaches, estimate at completion (EAC) is an essential approach utilized for final project estimation. The main merit of EAC is including the probability of the project performance and risk. In addition, EAC is extremely helpful for project managers to define and determine the critical throughout the project progress and determine the appropriate solutions to these problems. In this research, a relatively new intelligent model called deep neural network (DNN) is proposed to calculate the EAC. The proposed DNN model is authenticated against one of the predominated intelligent models conducted on the EAC prediction, namely, support vector regression model (SVR). In order to demonstrate the capability of the model in the engineering applications, historical project information obtained from fifteen projects in Iraq region is inspected in this research. The second phase of this research is about the integration of two input algorithms hybridized with the proposed and the comparable predictive intelligent models. These input optimization algorithms are genetic algorithm (GA) and brute force algorithm (BF). The aim of integrating these input optimization algorithms is to approximate the input attributes and investigate the highly influenced factors on the calculation of EAC. Overall, the enthusiasm of this study is to provide a robust intelligent model that estimates the project cost accurately over the traditional methods. Also, the second aim is to introduce a reliable methodology that can provide efficient and effective project cost control. The proposed GA-DNN is demonstrated as a reliable and robust intelligence model for EAC calculation.
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Relich, Marcin, and Antoni Świć. "Parametric Estimation and Constraint Programming-Based Planning and Simulation of Production Cost of a New Product." Applied Sciences 10, no. 18 (September 11, 2020): 6330. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10186330.
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Currently-used decision support solutions allow decision makers to estimate the cost of developing a new product, its production, and promotion, and compare the estimated cost to the target cost. However, these solutions are inadequate for supporting simulations of identifying conditions, by which the specific cost is reached. The proposed approach provides a framework for searching for possible variants towards reaching the target production cost. This paper is concerned with a prototyping problem of product development described in terms of a constraint satisfaction problem. The proposed method uses parametric estimation to identify relationships between variables, and constraint programming to search for project completion variants within the company’s resources and project requirements. The results of an experiment indicate that constraint programming provides effective search strategies for finding admissible solutions. Consequently, the proposed approach allows decision makers to obtain alternative scenarios within the limits imposed by the production process. In this, it outperforms current methods dedicated to the support of evaluating the total cost of a new product. The declarative approach presented in this paper is used to model the production cost; however, it can be effortlessly extended to other aspects of product development (e.g., product reliability).
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Berthelot, S., M. Mallet, L. Baril, P. Dupont, L. Bissonnette, H. Stelfox, M. Émond, et al. "P017: A time-driven activity-based costing method to estimate health care costs in the emergency department." CJEM 19, S1 (May 2017): S83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cem.2017.219.
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Introduction: Poor physicians’ knowledge of health care costs has been identified as an important barrier to improving efficiency and reducing overuse in care delivery. Moreover, costs of tests and treatments estimated with traditional costing methods have been shown to be imprecise and unreliable. We estimated the cost of frequent care activities in the emergency department (ED) using the time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) method. Methods: We conducted a TDABC study in the ED of the CHUL, Québec city (77000 visits/year). We estimated the cost of all potential care activities (e.g. triage) provided to adult patients with selected urgent (e.g. pulmonary sepsis) and non urgent (e.g. urinary tract infection) conditions frequently encountered in the ED. Following Lean management principles, process maps were developed by a group of ED care providers for each care activity to identify human resources, supplies and equipment involved, and to estimate the time required to complete each process. Resource unit cost (e.g. cost per minute of a nurse) and overhead rate were calculated using financial information from fiscal year 2015-16. Estimated cost of each care activity (e.g. chest X-ray) including physicians’ charges was calculated by summing overhead allocation and the cost of each process (e.g. disinfection of the X-ray machine) as obtained by multiplying the resource unit cost by the time for process completion. Results: Process maps were developed for 14 conditions and 68 ED care activities. We estimated the costs of activities (CAN$) related to nursing (e.g. urinalysis and culture triage ordering $14.70), clerk tasks (e.g. patient registration $3.40), physicians (e.g. FAST scan $20.90), laboratory testing (e.g. CBC $6.30), diagnostic imaging (e.g. abdominal CT scan $146.50), therapy (e.g. 5 mg of iv morphine $20.40), and resuscitation (rapid sequence intubation with ketamine and succinylcholine $146.40). Overall, emergency physicians’ charges, personnel salaries and overheads accounted for 38%, 22% and 16% of all ED care costs, respectively. Conclusion: Our results represent an important step toward increasing emergency physicians’ awareness on the real cost of their interventions and empowering them to adopt more cost-effective practice patterns.
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Kasprowicz, T. "Quantitative Assessment of Construction Risk." Archives of Civil Engineering 63, no. 2 (June 27, 2017): 55–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ace-2017-0016.
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Abstract Construction risk assessment is the final and decisive stage of risk analysis. When highly changeable conditions of works execution are predicted, risk should be evaluated in the favorable, moderate, and difficult random conditions of construction. Given the random conditions, the schedule and cost estimate of the construction are developed. Based on these values, the risk of final deadline delay and the risk of total cost increase of construction completion are calculated. Next, the charts of the risks are elaborated. Risk changes are shown in the charts and are analyzed in the range [1, 0].
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Louzolo-Kimbembé, Paul, Chrispin Pettang, and Thomas Tamo Tatiétsé. "Minimisation des surcoûts dans un contexte hors délai : cas des projets de construction dans les pays en développement." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 34, no. 9 (September 1, 2007): 1180–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l07-089.
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Cost overruns are frequent in the construction industry. They become greater the more the construction project is delayed. In developing countries, this situation is recurring and constitutes a significant financial problem. In a time-overrun context, our objective is to find a method that can enable us to reduce the delay while minimizing the subsequent cost overruns. We thus developed a mathematical model named CCOMTOC (construction cost optimisation model in time-overrun context). The model was tested and results reveal that the reduction of cost overruns is effective. We showed that in a time-overrun context, according to the importance of delay penalties, we obtain two distinct situations. On the basis of the reference cost calculated for a maximum compression of tasks within the normal duration, we note that, for low delay penalties, the total cost after further delays to the estimated completion time decreases as we deviate from the initial completion time. On the other hand, for relatively high delay penalties, the cost first passes by a minimum before increasing regularly during the further delays to the estimated completion time.Key words: time overrun, optimization, linear programming, time skid, delay make-up, cost overrun.
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Bonny, Apde, Wateno Oetomo, and Risma Marleno. "Analysis of Time and Cost Control Using The Earned Value Method In Well Pad Hilling and Compacting Work In The PT. Pertamina Hulu Rokan Riau Province." Devotion Journal of Community Service 3, no. 14 (December 31, 2022): 2802–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.36418/dev.v3i14.339.
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The development of physical facilities in Indonesia is increasing rapidly along with the promotion of modernization. In the implementation of a project it is very rare to find a project that goes exactly as planned. Generally, they experience delays from what was planned, both in terms of time and progress of work, but there are also projects that experience acceleration from the initial schedule planned. The research objectives were to determine time and cost performance, and to determine cost estimates and final project completion time for the Well Pad stockpiling and compaction project in the Rokan Riau Oil and Gas Block environment. The method used in this study is the Earned Value method which combines the elements of cost and time as well as the physical performance of the work. The data obtained from the project includes the project time schedule, budget plan (RAB), project weekly reports and actual costs, then an analysis of costs, schedules, variances and performance indexes is carried out by explaining the problems that arise during the research. Based on the results of the analysis and discussion, the calculation of the CPI value is> 1 from the 1st week to the 16th week. This means that from the 1st week to the 16th week, the project cost is more economical. The EAS calculation for the 16th week estimates the project completion time is 116 days or 16 weeks. This means that the project is experiencing a delay from the planned schedule. At the end of the review period, an estimated final project cost of Rp. 4,022,024,000.00. And the estimated time for project completion is 116 days, which means the project will be completed in a longer time than planned, which is 211 days.
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Baral, Ranju, Ann Levin, Chris Odero, Clint Pecenka, Collins Tabu, Evans Mwendo, George Bonsu, et al. "Costs of continuing RTS,S/ASO1E malaria vaccination in the three malaria vaccine pilot implementation countries." PLOS ONE 16, no. 1 (January 11, 2021): e0244995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244995.
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Background The RTS,S/ASO1E malaria vaccine is being piloted in three countries—Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi—as part of a coordinated evaluation led by the World Health Organization, with support from global partners. This study estimates the costs of continuing malaria vaccination upon completion of the pilot evaluation to inform decision-making and planning around potential further use of the vaccine in pilot areas. Methods We used an activity-based costing approach to estimate the incremental costs of continuing to deliver four doses of RTS,S/ASO1E through the existing Expanded Program on Immunization platform, from each government’s perspective. The RTS,S/ASO1E pilot introduction plans were reviewed and adapted to identify activities for costing. Key informant interviews with representatives from Ministries of Health (MOH) were conducted to inform the activities, resource requirements, and assumptions that, in turn, inform the analysis. Both financial and economic costs per dose, cost of delivery per dose, and cost per fully vaccinated child (FVC) are estimated and reported in 2017 USD units. Results At a vaccine price of $5 per dose and assuming the vaccine is donor-funded, our estimated incremental financial costs range from $1.70 (Kenya) to $2.44 (Malawi) per dose, $0.23 (Malawi) to $0.71 (Kenya) per dose delivered (excluding procurement add-on costs), and $11.50 (Ghana) to $13.69 (Malawi) per FVC. Estimates of economic costs per dose are between three and five times higher than financial costs. Variations in activities used for costing, procurement add-on costs, unit costs of per diems, and allowances contributed to differences in cost estimates across countries. Conclusion Cost estimates in this analysis are meant to inform country decision-makers as they face the question of whether to continue malaria vaccination, should the intervention receive a positive recommendation for broader use. Additionally, important cost drivers for vaccine delivery are highlighted, some of which might be influenced by global and country-specific financing and existing procurement mechanisms. This analysis also adds to the evidence available on vaccine delivery costs for products delivered outside the standard immunization schedule.
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Araba, Almahdi Mohamed, Zubair Ahmed Memon, Musab Alhawat, Mumtaz Ali, and Abdalrhman Milad. "Estimation at Completion in Civil Engineering Projects: Review of Regression and Soft Computing Models." Knowledge-Based Engineering and Sciences 2, no. 2 (August 31, 2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.51526/kbes.2021.2.2.1-12.
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Construction projects are usually associated with several challenges owing to the varying process during the project lifetime. Hence, the final cost of any civil engineering project is influenced by many factors. There are numerous ways of determining the final cost of a project, however, the most essential approach is the Estimate at Completion (EAC) technique. This technique is mostly favored because it considers the probability of risks and project performance. Furthermore, EAC helps project managers in the definition and determination of the critical problems expected during the project period and the likely solutions toward these problems. In this review research, the basic empirical, regression and advanced soft computing methodologies adopted for the EAC computation, were surveyed and reported in detail. The review established on the base to recognize the modern advancement of the soft computing in computing the EAC with accurate, reliable and robust manner. The review was highlighted the main literature limitation, current status and possible future direction.
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Dwi, Weno, Zainuri, and Widya Apriani. "Analisis Biaya Pemeliharaan dan Perawatan Kantor Pelayanan Bea dan Cukai Pekanbaru." JURNAL TEKNIK 14, no. 2 (October 31, 2020): 203–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.31849/teknik.v14i2.4909.
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The existence of buildings has an important role in human life according to the purpose of the building. After completion of a building is expected to be able to carry out its functions according to the age of the plan. The purpose of this study is to estimate the cost of maintenance and care at the Pekanbaru Customs and Excise Service Office based on PERMEN NO.24 / PRT / M / 2008. It is expected that with this system, maintenance and maintenance activities will be in accordance with applicable standards and retain the use and value of the building. Regulation of the Minister of Public Works Number: 24 / PRT / M / 2008 concerning guidelines for building maintenance and maintenance, building maintenance This research was conducted using the Approximate Estimate method using the highest average unit price per m² of storey buildings for buildings accurate building as a guideline.he results of the calculation of this study found the estimated cost estimate of rough estimate (approximate estimate) of Rp. 16.156.679,93, - when compared with the calculation of the building price of Rp. 11.483.051,200 - the percentage of costs for maintenance of buildings in Pekanbaru Customs Service Office is only 0,1407% of the total price of the building, so that it can be categorized in the level of minor damage (<35%). Whereas the annual maintenance fee is Rp. 319.792.000,00, - in 2020 which is expected to increase every year based on the value of inflation based on Bank Indonesia.
Keywords: Estimation, Maintenance, Maintenance, Offices spase
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Lin, Yuankai, Tao Cheng, Qi Zhong, Wending Zhou, and Hua Yang. "Dynamic Spatial Propagation Network for Depth Completion." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 36, no. 2 (June 28, 2022): 1638–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i2.20055.
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Image-guided depth completion aims to generate dense depth maps with sparse depth measurements and corresponding RGB images. Currently, spatial propagation networks (SPNs) are the most popular affinity-based methods in depth completion, but they still suffer from the representation limitation of the fixed affinity and the over smoothing during iterations. Our solution is to estimate independent affinity matrices in each SPN iteration, but it is over-parameterized and heavy calculation.This paper introduces an efficient model that learns the affinity among neighboring pixels with an attention-based, dynamic approach. Specifically, the Dynamic Spatial Propagation Network (DySPN) we proposed makes use of a non-linear propagation model (NLPM). It decouples the neighborhood into parts regarding to different distances and recursively generates independent attention maps to refine these parts into adaptive affinity matrices. Furthermore, we adopt a diffusion suppression (DS) operation so that the model converges at an early stage to prevent over-smoothing of dense depth. Finally, in order to decrease the computational cost required, we also introduce three variations that reduce the amount of neighbors and attentions needed while still retaining similar accuracy. In practice, our method requires less iteration to match the performance of other SPNs and yields better results overall. DySPN outperforms other state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods on KITTI Depth Completion (DC) evaluation by the time of submission and is able to yield SoTA performance in NYU Depth v2 dataset as well.
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Park, Moonsun, Nahyun Kwon, Joosung Lee, Sanghyo Lee, and Yonghan Ahn. "Probabilistic Maintenance Cost Analysis for Aged Multi-Family Housing." Sustainability 11, no. 7 (March 27, 2019): 1843. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11071843.
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To realize sustainable construction, planning for future maintenance costs is essential. In the case of multi-family housing, various maintenance issues can be expected to appear starting 10 years after completion. Therefore, preventive maintenance must be implemented in a systematic manner to cope with the problems caused by the natural aging of multi-family dwellings and to maintain a sustainable level of quality for the properties. In this study, maintenance costs were investigated for 224 multi-family housing units aged 20 years or older in Seoul, South Korea. Using Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with expert interviews, a probabilistic maintenance cost analysis was conducted to analyze and estimate the variability in maintenance costs. The findings of the study propose that the use of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis can be developed into a useful planning tool for determining reasonable future maintenance costs in sustainable construction.
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Kopach, Renata, Somayeh Sadat, Ian D. Gallaway, Glen Geiger, Wendy J. Ungar, and Peter C. Coyte. "Cost-effectiveness analysis of medical documentation alternatives." International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 21, no. 1 (January 2005): 126–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266462305050166.
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Objectives:The delay between patient discharge and the completion of the final discharge note have prompted hospitals to consider new information technologies. This study compared the relative cost-effectiveness of an automated medical documentation system to the current system in place at a Canadian hospital. There are significant expenditures associated with the choice of medical documentation system, yet the benefit to the patient population has not been studied.Methods:A systematic review of the literature was carried out. Cost data for the current documentation system were obtained from the study hospital. The costs of purchasing the automated system were obtained from the manufacturer. Other resource cost implications of the automated system were estimated based on information obtained from the Centre for Applied Health Informatics at the study hospital. The outcome was determined to be the average time (days) between patient discharge and note completion. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the robustness of the results.Results:The automated documentation system was associated with higher costs but better outcomes than the current system. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio used for comparing the automated medical documentation system with the traditional system indicated that the incremental daily cost for decreasing a day in average note completion time per discharge note was 0.331 Canadian $/day over the study period (4 years).Conclusions:Although the automated documentation system was more expensive than the current system, it also provided qualitative benefits that were not considered in the cost-effectiveness analysis.
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Setiawan, Rizky, and Anjas Handayani. "Analysis of Ramp on Off Costs And Time Using the Earned Value Analysis (EVA) Method." ADRI International Journal of Civil Engineering 7, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 144–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.29138/aijce.v7i1.74.
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In the construction of a project, the contractor has problems where the project is delayed. Therefore, it is necessary to make a system that is made to control costs and time so as not to experience delays and losses. In this study, the control is carried out using earned value analysis which aims to control costs and time with BCWS, BCWP and ACWP, which then calculates the cost and time performance index to determine the estimated cost and time to complete the project. The results of this study show that at the end of the 91st week, the calculation of costs is still below the budget. Estimated cost for project completion of Rp 75,803,028,234.56 is still smaller than the contract value. To return the project costs to the position according to the plan, a CP1 value of 0.95992 is needed. The estimated time required to complete the project is 127.43 weeks, while the completion time according to the contract value is 117 weeks. So the estimated project completion requires an additional 10.43 weeks or 74 days from the end of the planned schedule. To restore the project schedule according to the plan, an SPI value of 1.25133 is required.
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Png, M. E., X. L. Griffin, M. L. Costa, J. Achten, and R. Pinedo-Villanueva. "Utilization and costs of formal and informal care, home adaptations, and physiotherapy among older patients with hip fracture." Bone & Joint Research 9, no. 5 (May 2020): 250–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2046-3758.95.bjr-2019-0221.r1.
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Aims This feasibility study investigates the utilization and cost of health resources related to formal and informal care, home adaptations, and physiotherapy among patients aged 60 years and above after hip fracture from a multicentre cohort study (World Hip Trauma Evaluation (WHiTE)) in the UK. Methods A questionnaire containing health resource use was completed at baseline and four months post-injury by patients or their carer. Completion rate and mean cost of each health resource item were assessed and sensitivity analysis was performed to derive a conservative estimate of the informal care cost. All costs are presented in 2017/18 pound sterling. Results A total of 4,183 patients from the WHiTE cohort completed the baseline questionnaire between May 2017 and April 2018, of whom 3,524 (84.2%) completed the four-month health resource section. Estimated mean costs of formal and informal care, home adaptations, and physiotherapy during the four months following injury were £2,843 (SD 5,467), £6,613 (SD 15,146), £706 (SD 1,706) and £9 (SD 33), respectively. Mean cost of informal care decreased to £660 (SD £1,040) in the sensitivity analysis when informal care was capped at 17.2 hours per day. Conclusion Informal care is a significant source of costs after hip fracture and should therefore be included in future economical analyses of this patient group. Our results show that there is considerable variation in the interpretation of time-use of informal care among patients and further work is needed to improve how data regarding informal care are collected in order to obtain a more accurate cost estimate. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res. 2020;9(5):250–257.
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A., Dinesh T., Prem Nair, V. Abhijath, Vidya Jha, and K. Aarthy. "Economics of cancer care: A community-based cross-sectional study in Kerala, India." South Asian Journal of Cancer 09, no. 01 (January 2020): 07–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.4103/sajc.sajc_382_18.
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Abstract Bacground: The estimated incidence of cancer cases in Kerala for 2014 was 31,400 and the mortality associated with it was 13,816. Although the treatment of cancer has shown remarkable advances, it has come with increasing costs. Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate the economic burden of cancer in Vypin Block Panchayat at Ernakulam by analyzing the average total direct and indirect cost of cancer care, socioeconomic status, and cost of cancer care between government and private hospitals. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted for 2 months from March to April 2018. The study was conducted by utilizing an annotated cost questionnaire for completion by patients. Total direct and indirect cost was estimated. Appropriate statistical tests were used. Results: Direct cost for cancer care contributed 75% toward the cost of illness and the remaining was found to be indirect cost. Loss of income (44%) contributed to the largest chunk of indirect cost. The average direct cost for cancer care was found to be Rs. 25,606 and the average indirect cost was Rs. 8772. The average total cost of cancer care was calculated to be Rs. 34,378. Significant statistical variation was found between the cost of cancer care in private and government hospitals. The economic burden of cancer in this Vypin Block Panchayat was found to be Rs. 218,256,977/- Conclusion: The ratio of average income to average cost in this study is skewed which indicates the lack of affordability for cancer care in this population. A very large gap, therefore, exits between income levels and cost of cancer care clearly indicating a vast gap between affordability and cost of treatment, which clearly necessitates the need for a definite policy and state intervention for a mass cancer care program.
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Koirala, Neetu. "Variations Order of Building Construction Project a Case from Nepal." Journal of Advanced Research in Construction and Urban Architecture 6, no. 2 (May 14, 2021): 25–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.24321/2456.9925.202105.
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The main objective of this study is to identify the origin and causes of variation orders and their impacts in project cost and completion time for developing preventing measures which can be beneficial in upcoming similar projects. The study is conducted in project inside the Tribhuvan University premises, Kathmandu. The primary data were collected from the questionnaire survey and field study. A questionnaire survey was conducted with construction team who are related to the project. For the case study of the project, contract documents were obtained from the related offices which were thoroughly studied to obtain the project related findings about variation orders relating to project cost and completion time. Five ranking linkert scale have been used for ranking the perception based relative importance index of respondents about causes of variation orders. Existence of variation orders inside Tribhuvan University premises, Kathmandu has been noted from the study. 9.85%, 5.99%, 10.37%, 12.32% and 21.02% cost above the contract amount has been incurred at the completion of the projects respectively. Similarly, 26.67%, 83.33%, 12.5%, 20% and 25% time for the successive contract has been increased by the extension of the contract completion time. From the study, main causes of variation orders are known to be change of plan, change of scope, defect of bill of quantities, lack of specified and appropriate competent construction manager and impediment in prompt decision making. Similarly, causes of variation orders impacting project cost are additional work, client financial problems/ delay in payment of bill and change in design. Causes of variation orders impacting project time are change in design, delay in payment and dispute between parties to the contract. The control measures for the variation orders are appointment of project manager to supervise design, preparation of bill of quantities with good estimate and adequate financial planning. The findings of this study will be beneficial for developers, designers and contractors in building projects and also to the Governmental authorities to develop preventing measures to eliminate or reduce variation orders.
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Lederer, Albert L., and Jayesh Prasad. "Information Systems Software Cost Estimating: A Current Assessment." Journal of Information Technology 8, no. 1 (March 1993): 22–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/026839629300800104.
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A study of information systems managers and other information systems professionals at 112 different organizations confirmed that information systems software cost estimating is an important concern. Subjects reported the completion of only one of every four systems development projects within their estimates. According to them, the major cause of inaccurate estimates was changes in user requirements. Organizations using sophisticated cost estimating software packages were less successful at preventing large cost overruns than organizations not using them. However, the use of the estimator as system developer, the careful monitoring of systems development projects, and the inclusion in performance evaluations of success in meeting estimates were associated with more accurate cost estimating.
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Chhabra, Sonia, and Harvir Singh. "Optimizing Design of Fuzzy Model for Software Cost Estimation Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm." International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications 19, no. 01 (March 2020): 2050005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1469026820500054.
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Estimation of software cost and effort is of prime importance in software development process. Accurate and reliable estimation plays a vital role in successful completion of the project. To estimate software cost, various techniques have been used. Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) is amongst most prominent algorithmic model used for cost estimation. Different versions of COCOMO consider different types of parameters affecting overall cost. Parameters involved in estimation using COCOMO possess vagueness which introduces some degree of uncertainty in algorithmic modelling. The concept of fuzzy logic can deal with uncertainty involved in Intermediate COCOMO cost driver measurements via Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). In the proposed research, an effort has been made wherein, for each cost driver, an FIS is designed to calculate the corresponding effort multiplier. Proposed research provides an insight through evolutionary-based optimization techniques to optimize fuzzy logic-based COCOMO using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm. The magnitude of relative error and its mean, calculated using COCOMO NASA2 and COCOMONASA datasets are used as evaluation metrics to validate the proposed model. The model outperforms when compared to other optimization techniques like Genetic Algorithm.
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NAGAHATA, Tsukasa. "Rating in Vessel's Self-completion Ability and Rescue-aid Ability using Marine Accident Estimated Cost." Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation 119 (2008): 191–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.9749/jin.119.191.
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Abdel-Monem, Mohamed, Kareem Tarek Alshaer, and Karim El-Dash. "Assessing Risk Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Conceptual Cost Estimation in the Middle East." Buildings 12, no. 7 (July 4, 2022): 950. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12070950.
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The construction industry is subjected to more risk and uncertainty than many other industries, in addition to poor risk-tracking records. This usually causes the late completion of projects, surpassing their estimated budgets even without achieving the desired quality and operational requirements. This study first identified the most critical factors affecting the accuracy of cost estimates. A questionnaire has been designed and distributed to construction experts; the results indicated stakeholders’ perception to improve their cost estimation using a proper and predefined risk management plan. Following the respondents’ judgment, this study identified 51 risk factors and their potential root causes and presents a response plan for the most critical risks that might affect cost estimates to improve construction-industry performance. Then, a new simple model has been developed to analyze risk factors affecting the accuracy of conceptual cost estimates, from both clients’ and contractors’ perspectives. The developed model will provide the decision-makers with a list of risks accompanied by guidelines/response plans to mitigate their effect on project cost to help the estimators identify the most effective cost contingency against the project’s scope creep.
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Lysenko, D., and Y. Fediai. "THE AGILE EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT METHOD AS A COST MANAGEMENT TOOL IN SCRUM PROJECTS." Municipal economy of cities 3, no. 163 (June 29, 2021): 159–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2021-3-163-159-164.
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According to the statistics, the majority of IT projects run 50–150 percent over budget, which indicates the importance of managing its cost. In agile methodologies which are widely used in software development, little attention is given to cost management. Lack of specialized cost management tools in agile practices raises the question of the feasibility of adapting traditional project management methods and techniques. The purpose of the research is to improve the quality of IT projects cost control processes by developing a project cost management model using the Agile Earned Value Management method. The paper discusses the EVM techniques which have been adopted to provide the benefits of traditional EVM in Agile projects. There are some misconceptions that EVM techniques are too difficult to perform effectively on projects implemented using agile approaches (i.e. Scrum framework). The challenges are primarily associated with the fact that the EVM method requires creating a complete description of project tasks and a detailed schedule of their execution at the initial stage allowing accurate estimates of the actual data and monitoring the project progress from start to completion. On the other hand, Scrum emphasizes the need for incremental, multi-level planning and discourages planning software projects down to the lowest level of decomposition in the early stages. The reason for this is the high degree of ambiguity inherent in complex software systems, and the high probability of changes that make fully defining the requirements up front nearly impossible. However, upon closer examination of Sprint attributes, such as fixed duration, fixed backlog, cost measurement of sprint tasks, the ultimate goal of delivering a minimum viable product – leads us to the conclusion that Sprint can be considered as a subproject to which the mechanism of the EVM method can be applied using the same metrics. The paper further summarizes the main provisions and guidelines of the AgileEVM method, based on which its process model is developed. The inputs of the model are initial release baseline parameters and data captured at the completion of each Sprint: Planned Sprints (PS); Planned Release Points (PRP); Budget at Complete (BAC); Points Completed (PC), Points Added (PA), and Sprint Cost (SC). The controls are the AgileEVM method guidelines. The mechanisms are project manager and necessary software (MS Excel, MS Project). At the output of the model we obtain forecast indicators: Estimate to Complete (ETC), Estimate at Complete (EAC), Number of Total Sprints (N), and Release Date (RD). The final conclusion of the conducted research is that the application of the Earned Value Management method to projects implemented with Scrum enables the project manager and the project team with a valuable tool to monitor the progress of their work and to take appropriate measures.
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Fitri Nur Kharina and Kusno Adi Sambowo. "ANALISIS KETERLAMBATAN PROYEK SERTA DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP BIAYA DAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN PROYEK." Jurnal Infrastruktur 5, no. 1 (July 22, 2019): 13–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.35814/infrastruktur.v5i1.614.
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Construction projects in all regions continues to be developed for the creation of facilities that can be utilized by the community. One of them is the construction of apartments which are now being intensively carried out to meet residential needs for the community. Making a construction project plan always refers to estimates that exist at the time development plan is made, therefore problems can arise if there is a discrepancy between the plans that have been made and the actual reality. So the impact that often occurs is the delay in the time of project implementation which can also be accompanied by an increase in the cost of implementing the project. In the construction project of Cinere Terrace Suites Apartemen & Citywalk, Jakarta there was a delay resulting in a late payment of monthly bill progress by the owner. Based on the above reasons, this research was conducted to find out how the project performance was seen from the cost and time period of the review period. how is the estimated cost and time to complete the overall project work. The method used in the analysis of this study is the Earned Value Method. Based on the results of the analysis carried out for 29 weeks the project performance on schedule has been delayed and cost shows a positive value. For the estimated completion time of the project there is an increase in time whose duration increases from the planned 98 weeks or 685 days to 109,624 weeks or 768 days. While the estimated cost of completing the project from the results of the analysis obtained a value of Rp. 270,147,448,569.16 smaller than the planned cost of Rp. 315,272,727,272.73. With the difference VAC of Rp. 45,125,278,703.57 this shows that there are benefits obtained by the contractor.
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Siegel, Andrew F., Barbara Trask, Jared C. Roach, Gregory G. Mahairas, Leroy Hood, and Ger van den Engh. "Analysis of Sequence-Tagged-Connector Strategies for DNA Sequencing." Genome Research 9, no. 3 (March 1, 1999): 297–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/gr.9.3.297.
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The BAC-end sequencing, or sequence-tagged-connector (STC), approach to genome sequencing involves sequencing the ends of BAC inserts to scatter sequence tags (STCs) randomly across the genome. Once any BAC or other large segment of DNA is sequenced to completion by conventional shotgun approaches, these STC tags can be used to identify a minimum tiling path of BAC clones overlapping the nucleation sequence for sequence extension. Here, we explore the properties of STC-sequencing strategies within a mathematical model of a random target with homologous repeats and imperfect sequencing technology to understand the consequences of varying various parameters on the incidence of problem clones and the cost of the sequencing project. Problem clones are defined as clones for which either (A) there is no identifiable overlapping STC to extend the sequence in a particular direction or (B) the identified STC with minimum overlap comes from a nonoverlapping clone, either owing to random false matches or repeat-family homology. Based on the minimum overlap, we estimate the number of clones to be entirely sequenced and, then, using cost estimates, identify the decision rule (the degree of sequence similarity required before a match is declared between an STC and a clone) to minimize overall sequencing cost. A method to optimize the overlap decision rule is highly desirable, because both the total cost and the number of problem clones are shown to be highly sensitive to this choice. For a target of 3 Gb containing ∼800 Mb of repeats with 85%–90% identity, we expect <10 problem clones with 15 times coverage by 150-kb clones. We derive the optimal redundancy and insert sizes of clone libraries for sequencing genomes of various sizes, from microbial to human. We estimate that establishing the resource of STCs as a means of identifying minimally overlapping clones represents only 1%–3% of the total cost of sequencing the human genome, and, up to a point of diminishing returns, a larger STC resource is associated with a smaller total sequencing cost.
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Khalafalla, Mohamed, and Jorge Rueda-Benavides. "Unit Price or Lump Sum? A Stochastic Cost-Based Decision-Making Tool for Design-Bid-Build Projects." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 26 (April 11, 2018): 11–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198118758052.
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The appropriate selection of procurement tools and strategies is a key factor in the successful completion of construction projects. Despite the increasing use of alternative project delivery methods by the public agencies, the traditional design–bid–build (DBB) approach is still the most used and accepted project delivery method in the US. The purpose of this study is to present an innovative tool that introduces an objective criterion into the selection of resurfacing projects for design–bid–build —lump sum (DBB-LS) projects. This criterion consists of a comparison of the stochastic construction cost estimate for a candidate project if procured under DBB-LS versus its stochastic cost estimate if a unit price (UP) approach is used. The proposed decision-making tool was developed using non-linear regression techniques, Monte Carlo Simulation, and data from 86 resurfacing projects completed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) between January 2015 and March 2017: 63 UP and 23 LS projects. To facilitate the use of the tool by decision makers, the mathematical functions involved in the cost comparison between these two approaches have been comprised into a nomogram, allowing a quick approximation of the probability of having a lower cost under each compensation approach and the potential savings or extra costs of using an LS provision. The nomogram also allows the estimation of potential LS cost implications under different confidence levels, providing FDOT with the ability to make decisions at different levels of risk.
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Keaton, C. Grant. "Using Budgeted Cost of Work Performed to Predict Estimates at Completion for Mid-Acquisition Space Programs." Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 8, no. 1 (January 2, 2015): 49–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1941658x.2015.1016585.
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Acharya, Samir, Pravesh Rajbhandari, Resha Shrestha, Sudan Dhakal, Pranaya Shrestha, Sharad Hari Gajuryal, and Basant Pant. "Economic Burden Associated with Neurocysticercosis at a Tertiary Care Neurological Center in Nepal." Annapurna Journal of Health Sciences 1, no. 2 (August 8, 2021): 31–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.52910/ajhs.40.
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Introduction: Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is the most common parasitic disease of the central nervous system and is a major cause of epilepsy and neurological morbidity in humans in endemic areas of the world. This study was conducted to estimate economic burden of the paients due to Neurocysticercosis arriving at Tertiary Neurological center of Kathmandu,Nepal.
Methods: A cross sectional prospective study was conducted for 2 years among the patients with NCC at Tertiary Neurological Center in Kathmandu. Patients treatment plan and followup date were recorded and patient were categorized into four different groups depending on the frequency of followup and completion of treatment. Direct and indirect cost centers were catagorised and calculated accordingly. The cost was estimated in US dollar as of 2020.
Results: Out of 52 patients who were followed up completely for treatment, majority of patient were from age group 21-30 years . The total cost incurred for group 1, group 2, group 3 and group 4 were $468, $714, $ 1054 and $1986 respectively.The average cost per day for a patient with NCC was calculated to be $1.5.
Conclusion: This study suggests that Neurocysticercosis results in considerable monetary losses to patient in developing country like Nepal. The average loss of each individual accounted for around one half of per day capita income of Nepal. Various programs and poolicies shall be implemented to reduce the burden of NCC so as to reduce the economic burden associated to it.
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Wolf, Michael S., Karen A. Fitzner, Eowyn F. Powell, Kathryn R. McCaffrey, A. Simon Pickard, June M. McKoy, Julia Lindenberg, et al. "Costs and Cost Effectiveness of a Health Care Provider–Directed Intervention to Promote Colorectal Cancer Screening Among Veterans." Journal of Clinical Oncology 23, no. 34 (December 1, 2005): 8877–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2005.02.6278.
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Purpose Colorectal cancer screening is underused, particularly in the Veterans Affairs (VA) population. In a randomized controlled trial, a health care provider–directed intervention that offered quarterly feedback to physicians on their patients' colorectal cancer screening rates led to a 9% increase in colorectal cancer screening rates among veterans. The objective of this secondary analysis was to assess the cost effectiveness of the colorectal cancer screening promotion intervention. Methods Providers in the intervention arm attended an educational workshop on colorectal cancer screening and received confidential feedback on individual and group-specific colorectal cancer screening rates. The primary end point was completion of colorectal cancer screening tests. Sensitivity analyses investigated cost-effectiveness estimates varying the data collection methods, costs of labor and technology, and the effectiveness of the intervention. Results Rates of colorectal cancer screening for the intervention versus control arms were 41.3% v 32.4%, respectively (P < .05). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $978 per additional veteran screened based on feedback reports generated from manual review of records. However, if feedback reports could be generated from information technology systems, sensitivity analyses indicate that the cost-effectiveness estimate would decrease to $196 per additional veteran screened. Conclusion An intervention based on quarterly feedback reports to physicians improved colorectal cancer screening rates at a VA medical center. This intervention would be cost effective if relevant data could be generated by existing information technology systems. Our findings may have broad applicability because a 2005 Medicare initiative will provide the VA electronic medical record system as a free benefit to all US physicians.
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Chirkova, Julia V. "Computing the Price of Anarchy in Processor Load Balancing Game with Linear Delays." Contributions to Game Theory and Management 14 (2021): 72–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu31.2021.06.
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This paper considers a generalization of the processor load balancing game also known as KP-model. A linear delay of a processor may depend on not only its load but on loads of other processors. Players choose processors of different speeds to run their jobs striving to minimize job's delay, i.e., the job completion time on a chosen processor. The social cost is the maximum delay over all processors. We propose a computing algorithm of the exact PoA value which can be applied to estimate the POA visually if its exact analytical expression is not obtained yet or it is rather complicated to figure out its formula.
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Kim, Myung-Hun, and Eul-Bum Lee. "A Forecast Model for the Level of Engineering Maturity Impact on Contractor’s Procurement and Construction Costs for Offshore EPC Megaprojects." Energies 12, no. 12 (June 16, 2019): 2295. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12122295.
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This paper focuses on the influence of detailed engineering maturities on offshore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project procurement and construction cost performance. The authors propose a detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) to estimate the engineering maturities, from contract award to beginning of construction or steel cutting. The DECRIS is supplemented in this study with an artificial neural network methodology (ANN) to forecast procurement and construction cost performances. The study shows that R2 and mean error values using ANN functions are 20.2% higher and 19.7% lower, respectively, than cost performance estimations using linear regressions. The DECRIS cutoff score at each gate and DECRIS forecasting performance of total cost impact were validated through the results of fifteen historical offshore EPC South Korean mega-projects, which contain over 300 procurement cost performance data points in total. Finally, based on the DECRIS and ANN findings and a trade-off optimization using a Monte-Carlo simulation with a genetic algorithm, the authors propose a cost mitigation plan for potential project risks based on optimizing the engineering resources. This research aids both owners and EPC contractors to mitigate cost overrun risks, which could be continuously monitored at the key engineering gates, and engineering resources could be adjusted per optimization results.
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Wang, Bin, Jianjun Yuan, and Kayhan Zrar Ghafoor. "Research on Construction Cost Estimation based on Artificial Intelligence Technology." Scalable Computing: Practice and Experience 22, no. 2 (October 24, 2021): 93–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.12694/scpe.v22i2.1868.
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For the prediction of economic expenses involved in construction industry, cost estimation has become an important aspect of construction management for the prediction of economic expenses and successful completion of the construction work. Cost analysis is crucial and require expertise for accurate and comprehensive estimation. In order to effectively improve the accuracy of construction project cost, this paper establishes an estimation model based on gray BP neural network. It combines the MATLAB toolbox for program design, and learns and tests the input and output of training samples. This article determines the application of grey system theory to optimize the estimation model of Back Propagation (BP) neural network. The viability of the method established in this article, is tested by collecting the engineering cost data in Zhengzhou city and comparing between the standard BP neural network and the gray BP neural network methods. The results show that the average error of the gray system theory optimized BP neural network model designed in this paper is 2.33%. The gray BP neural network model studied in this paper can not only quickly estimate the project cost, but also has high accuracy rate. The outcomes obtained establishes a model with scientific and reasonable construction project cost estimation.
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Gao, Wenlei, Gian Matharu, and Mauricio D. Sacchi. "Fast least-squares reverse time migration via a superposition of Kronecker products." GEOPHYSICS 85, no. 2 (March 1, 2020): S115—S134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/geo2019-0254.1.
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Least-squares reverse time migration (LSRTM) has become increasingly popular for complex wavefield imaging due to its ability to equalize image amplitudes, attenuate migration artifacts, handle incomplete and noisy data, and improve spatial resolution. The major drawback of LSRTM is the considerable computational cost incurred by performing migration/demigration at each iteration of the optimization. To ameliorate the computational cost, we introduced a fast method to solve the LSRTM problem in the image domain. Our method is based on a new factorization that approximates the Hessian using a superposition of Kronecker products. The Kronecker factors are small matrices relative to the size of the Hessian. Crucially, the factorization is able to honor the characteristic block-band structure of the Hessian. We have developed a computationally efficient algorithm to estimate the Kronecker factors via low-rank matrix completion. The completion algorithm uses only a small percentage of preferentially sampled elements of the Hessian matrix. Element sampling requires computation of the source and receiver Green’s functions but avoids explicitly constructing the entire Hessian. Our Kronecker-based factorization leads to an imaging technique that we name Kronecker-LSRTM (KLSRTM). The iterative solution of the image-domain KLSRTM is fast because we replace computationally expensive migration/demigration operations with fast matrix multiplications involving small matrices. We first validate the efficacy of our method by explicitly computing the Hessian for a small problem. Subsequent 2D numerical tests compare LSRTM with KLSRTM for several benchmark models. We observe that KLSRTM achieves near-identical images to LSRTM at a significantly reduced computational cost (approximately 5–15× faster); however, KLSRTM has an increased, yet manageable, memory cost.
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Hasanzadeh, Mohammad Reza, Behrooz Arbab Shirani, and Gholam Ali Raissi Ardali. "An Improved Performance Measurement Approach for Knowledge-Based Companies Using Kalman Filter Forecasting Method." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2016 (2016): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/4831867.
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Performance measurement and forecasting are crucial for effective management of innovative projects in emerging knowledge-based companies. This study proposes an integrated performance assessment and forecasting model based on a combination of earned schedule methodology and the learning curve theory under risk condition. The operational performance is measured in terms of time and cost at completion indicators. As a novelty, the learning effects and Kalman filter forecasting method are employed to accurately estimate the future performance of the company. Furthermore, in order to predict the cost performance accurately, a logistic growth model is utilized. The validity of this integrated performance measurement model is demonstrated based on a case study. The computational results confirmed that the developed performance measurement framework provides, on average, more accurate forecast in terms of mean and standard deviation of the forecasting error for the future performance as against the traditional deterministic performance measurement methods.