Relevant bibliographies by topics / Cost estimate at completion

Academic literature on the topic 'Cost estimate at completion'

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Published: 14 March 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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Gunawan, Liem Stefani Meilia. "OPTIMIZED MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS CONSIDERING THE TRADE-OFF OF ESTIMATE SCHEDULE AND COST AT COMPLETION." Dimensi Utama Teknik Sipil 6, no. 2 (October 31, 2019): 26–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.9744/duts.6.2.26-37.

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Nowadays, the minimization of project time and cost is an important issue. However, time and cost problems are difficult to solve. They are affected by the uncertain factor. Then, the construction project always fails to achieve the effectiveness of time and cost performance. It causes delays and cost overrun. In this research, SOS-NN-LSTM is required to establish the estimate schedule to completion (ESTC) and estimate cost to completion (ECTC) prediction model based on time now performance. Then, the prediction model will be integrated with MOSOS to obtain the optimal prediction value. The integration is needed because there is no direct equation to calculate the ESTC and ECTC. The Pareto curve identified based on the prediction values of MOSOS. The Pareto curve is used to determine the optimal trade-off between project duration and project cost. Then, the indifference curve is used to solve the trade-off problem between estimate schedule at completion (ESAC) dan estimate cost at completion (ECAC) which give the decision-maker preference.
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Narbaev, Timur, and Alberto De Marco. "An Earned Schedule-based regression model to improve cost estimate at completion." International Journal of Project Management 32, no. 6 (August 2014): 1007–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.12.005.

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Wahyuni, Elvi, and Bambang Hendrawan. "ANALISIS KINERJA PROYEK “Y”MENGGUNAKAN METODE EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT (Studi Kasus di PT Asian Sealand Engineering)." JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 2, no. 1 (March 29, 2018): 60–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.30871/jaba.v2i1.784.

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PT Asia Sealand Engineering is a company engaged in offshore industry services. This study aims to profit. (EVM). The EVM concept of the three indicators is the Work Schedule Budget (BCWS), Work Performance Cost Budget (BCWP) and Actual Cost of Work Performance (ACWP). From these indicators are then analyzed to Cost Variance (CV), Cost Performance Index (CPI), Variance Schedule (SV) and Index Performance Schedule (SPI). After these talent indexes can be calculated Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimate to Complete (ETC) and Time Estimate (TE). The project under study is project "Y" module 301 train 3, bacth 5 with job specification in Structure section. The results show that the project cost overrun and sechedule overrun. This means focusing the project down. Estimated cost of project lit (ETC) is Rp. 710.980.113.00. Total total cost can be seen from the calculation of EAC is Rp. 7.595.984.113, - and the estimated time to generate TE is 302 days.
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Zakariyya, Bagus, Ahmad Ridwan, and Suwarno Suwarno. "Analisis Biaya Dan Jadwal Proyek Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek Dengan Metode Earned Value." Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi & Teknik Sipil 3, no. 2 (October 30, 2020): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.30737/jurmateks.v3i2.1197.

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The construction of the Trenggalek District Health Office Building is a large-scale construction project. Large-scale projects often have performance issues. It is necessary to control costs and schedules for the project to go according to plan. Research using the Earned Value Method aims to find out the performance index, estimate the cost and time of completion of the work. They thus obtained corrections that must be made to the progress of the project. The results of the study in the 12th week were Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) amounting to Rp1,946,626,471.64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) amounted to Rp1,319,204,394.05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) of Rp1,181,554,085.52. Performance costs benefit; Cost Varian (CV) of Rp137,660,308.53 or Cost Performance Index (CPI) is worth 1,117>1. Schedule performance is delayed, Schedule Varian (SV) of -Rp627,422,077.59 or Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is worth 0.678<1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) of Rp3,483,730,479.63 benefited Rp405,885,332.51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) for 29,707 weeks, slow 5,707 weeks.Pembangunan Gedung Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Trenggalek merupakan proyek konstruksi berskala besar.Pada proyek berskala besar sering terjadi permasalahan kinerja. Oleh karena itu perlu pengendalian biaya dan jadwal agar proyek berjalan sesuai rencana. Penelitian ini menggunakan Metode Earned Value dengan tujuan agar dikeetahui indek kinerja, dan dapat memperkirakan biaya dan waktu penyelesaian pekerjaan, sehingga diperoleh koreksi yang harus dilakukan untuk kemajuan proyek. Hasil penelitian pada minggu ke-12 adalah Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS) sebesar Rp1.946.626.471,64, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) sebesar Rp1.319.204.394,05, Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) sebesar Rp1.181.554.085,52. Kinerja biaya mendapat keuntungan, Cost Varian (CV) sebesar Rp137.660.308,53 atau Cost Performance Index (CPI) bernilai 1,117>1. Kinerja jadwal mengalami keterlambatan, Schedule Varian (SV) sebesar -Rp627.422.077,59 atau Schedule Performance Index (SPI) bernilai 0,678 < 1. Estimate at Completion (EAC) sebesar Rp3.483.730.479,63 mendapat keuntungan sebesar Rp405.885.332,51. Estimate All Schedule (EAS) selama 29,707 minggu, lambat 5,707 minggu.
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Nadafi, Samira, Seyed Hamed Moosavirad, and Shahram Ariafar. "Predicting the project time and costs using EVM based on gray numbers." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 26, no. 9 (October 21, 2019): 2107–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-07-2018-0291.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine the project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using interval gray numbers (IGNs).Design/methodology/approachThe earned value management (EVM) method based on the IGN has been developed.FindingsThe EVM method based on the IGN has been verified by a numerical example that can be applied to construction projects.Practical implicationsThe EVM method, based on the gray numbers, reduces the budget and time shortage risk. Also, using this method, the managers would not be restricted to provide very exact values in their progress reports in the non-deterministic conditions.Originality/valueOne notable and significant point in all projects during the execution process is to estimate the project completion time and cost. However, non-deterministic conditions for both planned and actual physical completion percentage of projects have not been considered for predicting the project completion time and cost in the literature. Therefore, the novelty of this paper is the prediction of project completion time and cost under non-deterministic conditions using IGN.
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Dang, Chau Ngoc, and Long Le-Hoai. "Revisiting storey enclosure method for early estimation of structural building construction cost." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 25, no. 7 (August 20, 2018): 877–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-07-2015-0111.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop several predictive models for estimating the structural construction cost and establish range estimation for the structural construction cost using design information available in early stages of residential building projects. Design/methodology/approach Information about residential building projects is collected based on project documents from construction companies with regard to the design parameters and the actual structural construction costs at completion. Storey enclosure method (SEM) is fundamental for determining the building design parameters, forming the potential variables and developing the cost estimation models using regression analysis. Nonparametric bootstrap method is used to establish range estimation for the structural construction cost. Findings A model which is developed from an integration of advanced SEM, principle component analysis and regression analysis is robust in terms of predictability. In terms of range estimation, cumulative probability-based range estimates and confidence intervals are established. While cumulative probability-based range estimates provide information about the level of uncertainty included in the estimate, confidence intervals provide information about the variability of the estimate. Such information could be very crucial for management decisions in early stages of residential building projects. Originality/value This study could provide practitioners with a better understanding of the uncertainty and variability included in the cost estimate. Hence, they could make effective improvements on cost-related management approaches to enhance project cost performance.
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Kamyabniya, Afshin, Seyed Mohammad Seyedhoseini, and Saied Yaghoubi. "Project time and cost estimate at completion based on non-parametric resampling with interval risk." International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering 21, no. 4 (2015): 458. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijise.2015.072729.

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Jie, Deng, and Jian Wei. "Estimating Construction Project Duration and Costs upon Completion Using Monte Carlo Simulations and Improved Earned Value Management." Buildings 12, no. 12 (December 8, 2022): 2173. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12122173.

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Earned value management (EVM) is widely used when monitoring and estimating operations related to construction projects. As the scope and complexity of construction projects expand, traditional EVM is sometimes ineffective and even results in conclusions that are contrary to the actual situation. Additionally, the estimate produced by EVM is a deterministic value that does not account for the uncertainty of activities involved in a construction project. This study proposes an estimation approach that combines an improved EVM, critical path method (CPM), program evaluation and review technique (PERT), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The contribution is threefold. Firstly, a path-based schedule measurement approach is described using network diagrams and CPM to capture the logical relationships among activities. Secondly, the resource input categorizes activities to improve the accuracy of the duration and cost estimates. The remaining duration and cost will be estimated based on the execution performance of the activities in the same category. Thirdly, PERT and MCS approaches are used to reveal the uncertainty of estimates upon completion by replacing a deterministic value with a possible completion range. An experimental research study was used to apply the proposed approach. The result displayed that the commercial expansion project faced serious schedule delays and cost overruns. Based on the result, the project manager should focus highly on activities J, H, and G (in order of priority) and take corrective actions. In conclusion, the proposed approach demonstrates good performance when identifying deviations, estimating precise results, and determining the importance (priority) of activities that need to be controlled.
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Babar, Suqrat, Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, and Bilal Ayub. "Estimated Cost at Completion: Integrating Risk into Earned Value Management." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 143, no. 3 (March 2017): 04016104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001245.

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Krajňák, Marek, and Renáta Bašková. "The Cost Monitoring of the Construction Machinery with Using the Stochastic Progress-Based S-curves." Selected Scientific Papers - Journal of Civil Engineering 10, no. 1 (June 1, 2015): 57–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/sspjce-2015-0006.

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Abstract Contribution presents methodology for evaluating at-completion project performance status. Accurate cost and schedule project forecasts are difficult to generate when considering the impact of such events as unforeseen cost changes, material delays, scope deviation, changes to the project execution plan and poor subcontractor performance. In reality, the original estimate may be considered the first project forecast and at the point of project completion, the latest updated estimate (last forecast) and the actual amount of what is being expended should be the same. Final project performance is determined by comparing the planned budget and project duration, with the expected forecasted final budget and elapsed time. The stochastic S-curve methodology permits objective evaluation of project performance without the limitations inherent in a deterministic approach. This paper used the stochastic S curve to monitor the cost and time consumption in operation of the construction machines. The contribution presents a partial outcome from the dissertation thesis called the Interactive tools for resource optimization in construction.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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NARBAEV, TIMUR. "Forecasting cost at completion with growth models and Earned Value Management." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2506248.

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Reliable forecasting of the final cost at completion is one of the vital components of project monitoring. Accuracy and stability in the forecast of an ongoing project is a critical criterion that ensures the project’s on budget and timely completion. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a new Cost Estimate at Completion (CEAC) methodology to assist project managers in the task of forecasting the final cost at completion of ongoing projects. This forecasting methodology interpolates intrinsic characteristics of an S-shaped growth model and combines the Earned Schedule (ES) concepts into its equation to provide more accurate and stable cost estimates. Widely used conventional index-based methods for CEAC have inherent limitations such as reliance on past performance only, unreliable forecasts in early stages of a project life, and no count of forecasting statistics. To achieve its purpose the dissertation carried out five tasks. It, first, developed the method’s equation based on the integration of the four candidate S-shaped models and the earned schedule concepts. Second, the models’ equations were tested on past projects to assess their applicability and, then, the accuracy of CEACs was compared with ones found by the Cost Performance Index (CPI)-based formula. The scope of third task included comparing CEACs found by statistically valid and the most accurate Gompertz model (GM)-based equation against ones computed with the CPI-based method at each time point of the projects life. Then, the stability test was performed to determine if the method, with its corresponding performance indices that achieves the earlier stability, provides more accurate CEAC. Finally, the analysis was conducted to determine the existence of a correlation between schedule progress and the CEAC accuracy. Based on the research results it was determined that the GM-based method is the only valid model for cost estimates in all three stages and it provides more accurate estimates than the CPI-based formula does. Further comparative analysis showed that the two (the GM and CPI-based) methods’ performance index that achieved the earlier stability provided more accurate CEACs for that method, and finally, the new methodology takes into account the schedule impact as a factor of the cost performance in forecasting the CEAC. The developed methodology enhances forecasting capabilities of the existing Earned Value Management methods by refining traditional index-based approach through nonlinear regression analysis. The main novelty of the research is that this is a cost-schedule integrated approach which interpolates characteristics of a sigmoidal growth model with the ES technique to calculate a project’s CEAC. Two major contributions are brought to the Project Management. First, the dissertation extends the body of knowledge by introducing the methodology which combined two separate methods in one statistical technique that, so far, have been considered as two separate streams of project management research. Second, this technique advances the project management practice as it is a practical cost-schedule integrated approach that takes into account schedule progress (advance/delay) as a factor of cost behavior in calculation of CEAC.
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Baker, John T. "Completion cost trend analysis." Thesis, Lafayette, IN. Purdue University, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/37571.

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Hills, Allison. "Life Cycle Cost Estimate of LSD(X)." Thesis, Monterey, California, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/7358.

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This thesis develops a model that provides a credible and reliable rough order magnitude (ROM) Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) for a newly constructed U. S. Navy Dock Landing Ship, LSD(X), over the various phases of design, procurement, and operations and support costs. The Systems Engineering Analysis (SEA) Curriculum at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) will use this estimate to help establish the costs of the proposed alternatives for LSD(X). This study also includes a cost benefit analysis through the comparison of LSD(X) to an alternative variant LSD(XB). The comparison examines how the baseline ROM LCCE of LSD(X) is affected by changes in technical parameters such as beam, number of LCACs, troop size, crew size and cargo capacity. Ultimately, this thesis provides a useful tool to aid decision makers in selecting the most cost effective alternative for the LSD(X) fleet for the expected 30 year operational period.
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Myers, Jerry L. "Initial cost estimate of outsourcing Information Systems Technician University." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2000. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA380962.

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Thesis (M.S. in Financial Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000.
Thesis advisors: Mutty, John E. ; Moses, Douglas. "June 2000." Includes bibliographical references (p. 95). Also available in print.
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Issa, Ayman Ahmad Yousef. "Using use-case models to estimate software development cost." Thesis, University of the West of England, Bristol, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.431159.

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Allen, Mark S. "Ambiguity in ensemble forecasting evolution, estimate validation and value /." Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA509168.

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Dissertation (Ph.D. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2009.
Dissertation supervisor: Eckel, F. Anthony. "September 2009." Author(s) subject terms: Ensemble Forecast, Ambiguity, Uncertainty, Ensemble-of-Ensemble, Calibrated Error Sampling, Randomly Calibrated Resampling, Optimal Decision Making, Cost-Loss, Uncertainty-Folding, Secondary Criteria, Lorenz '96, Ensemble Prediction Systems Description based on title screen as viewed on November 03, 2009. DTIC Identifier(s): Ensemble forecast, ensemble-of-ensemble, calibrated error sampling, randomly calibrated resampling, optimal decision making, cost-loss, secondary criteria, Lorenz '96, ensemble prediction systems Includes bibliographical references (p. 203-208). Also available in print.
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Kaseke, Nyasa. "An estimate of the cost of electricity outages in Zimbabwe." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011119.

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This thesis estimates the cost of electricity outages in Zimbabwe for the year 2009. Much reference is made to government, the power utility - Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) and other countries in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), also experiencing electricity outages. An electricity outage is a complete loss of power supply to an area. An outage may result from planned or unplanned load shedding or faults. Load shedding is accelerated by power supply shortages. The shortages are experienced during peak demand times. In 2009, Zimbabwe’s peak demand was about 1574MW. ZESA had the capacity to supply 1080MW and imported 100MW (guaranteed from Mozambique), leaving a shortfall of 394MW. This shortfall is worsened by transmission losses (about 108MW) and consumption by ZESA properties (about 200MW) bringng down the supply to customers of about 700MW. The supply shortage is the result of a lack of investment in the power sector by government for expanded generation capacity, incorrect pricing, droughts, internal conflicts, skills flight, government energy sector regulation, vandalism of equipment and under supply of coal to thermal power stations. Consumers in all sectors are experiencing power outage incidences of different duration. The severity of the inconvenience depends on the load shedding time table, preferences of the power utility and arrangements that can be made with the utility. Power outages negatively affect (and result in cost to) the productive sectors (industry, mining and farming) and households. The main objective of the thesis is to estimate the cost of power outages to the sectors. Sub-objectives of the study include: to identify the main features of power crisis in Zimbabwe and government response to it with a regional power generated setting; to formulate a model that clearly identifies the different cost components of power outages in Zimbabwe; to identify appropriate methods by which to estimate these cost components; to estimate the cost of power outages to the productive sectors (mining, agriculture and industrial) and households of Zimbabwe; to critically analyse the credibility of these estimates, and to consider the saving of the costs of outages achieved through increased investment in generating capacity in Zimbabwe. ZESA undertook reforms (institutional and tariff) in order to improve management efficiencies and supply. It was divided into five entities resulting in management and financial improvement, but its reform of tariffs has been stiffled by subsidies and price regulations. ZESA adopted the cost plus rate of return pricing strategy in 2004 but regulation kept the tariff below cost. The regulation is pro-poor in aim but it encourages wasteful consumption. Similar supply shortages are affecting the whole SAPP group. The power pool load shed 758MW in 2009. In Zimbabwe alone load shedding was 315MW. In an attempt to solve the problem, member utilities engage in bilateral contacts and short-term trading through Short Term Energy Markets (STEM). A number of Southern African countries have to load shed - the average frequency being three to five (3-5) times per week for the region. A number of studies have been carried out by different scholars attempting to assess the impact and cost of outages. The general conclusion is that power outages cause significant costs to consumers, both direct and indirect. From a global perspective, the increase in the quality of electricity supplied has fallen behind the increase in quantity demanded, causing an increase of incidence in power outages. An analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa shows that the causes of supply shortages are natural (drought), oil price shocks, conflict and the lack of investment in generation capacity. This generates two outage cost estimates – a direct cost (welfare loss) and indirect cost (backup cost). The sum of these estimates is the total outage cost. The direct cost estimate is based on direct loss incurred during the power outages - lost production, lost materials, and lost time or leisure. In order to derive an estimated direct cost, it is necessary to obtain an accurate respondent self-assessment, which, in turn depends on the keeping of good records of hours of outages and losses incurred during outage times. The estimated indirect cost (backup cost) is derived from the cost of investment in backup sources and running of these sources as a mitigating measure during a power outage. The expected gain from self-generated kWh is assumed to be equal to the expected loss from the marginal kWh electricity not supplied by the utility (the outage). The annualised capital cost of backup source plus the variable cost of generating electricity by the backup source are another element of the cost of power outages. The prices of backup sources were obtained from the two leading retailers, Tendo Power and Ellis Electronics. To the extent that the captive generation includes investment in emergency or optional plant (as part of normal production infrastructure), it may overestimate cost.
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Dabkowski, Matthew Francis. "Using Network Science to Estimate the Cost of Architectural Growth." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/612431.

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Between 1997 and 2009, 47 major defense acquisition programs experienced cost overruns of at least 15% or 30% over their current or original baseline estimates, respectively (GAO, 2011, p. 1). Known formally as a Nunn-McCurdy breach (GAO, 2011, p. 1), the reasons for this excessive growth are myriad, although nearly 70% of the cases identified engineering and design issues as a contributing factor (GAO, 2011, p. 5). Accordingly, Congress legislatively acknowledged the need for change in 2009 with the passage of the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA, 2009), which mandated additional rigor and accountability in early life cycle (or Pre-Milestone A) cost estimation. Consistent with this effort, the Department of Defense has recently required more system specification earlier in the life cycle, notably the submission of detailed architectural models, and this has created opportunities for new approaches. In this dissertation, I describe my effort to transform one such model (or view), namely the SV-3, into computational knowledge that can be leveraged in Pre-Milestone A cost estimation and risk analysis. The principal contribution of my work is Algorithm 3-a novel, network science-based method for estimating the cost of unforeseen architectural growth in defense programs. Specifically, using number theory, network science, simulation, and statistical analysis, I simultaneously find the best fitting probability mass functions and strengths of preferential attachment for an incoming subsystem's interfaces, and I apply blockmodeling to find the SV-3's globally optimal macrostructure. Leveraging these inputs, I use Monte Carlo simulation and the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model to estimate the systems engineering effort required to connect a new subsystem to the existing architecture. This effort is chronicled by the five articles given in Appendices A through C, and it is summarized in Chapter 2.In addition to Algorithm 3, there are several important, tangential outcomes of this work, including: an explicit connection between Model Based System Engineering and parametric cost modeling, a general procedure for organizations to improve the measurement reliability of their early life cycle cost estimates, and several exact and heuristic methods for the blockmodeling of one-, two-, and mixed-mode networks. More generally, this research highlights the benefits of applying network science to systems engineering, and it reinforces the value of viewing architectural models as computational objects.
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Dowler, John D. "Using Neural Networks with Limited Data to Estimate Manufacturing Cost." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1211293606.

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Coste, Amelie 1982. "Schedule and cost estimate for an innovative Boston Harbor concert hall." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30134.

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Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 75-77).
This thesis formulates a cost estimate and schedule for constructing the Boston Concert Hall, an innovative hypothetical building composed of two concert halls and a restaurant. Concert Halls are complex and expensive structures due to steep design requirements reflecting their status as signature buildings and because they require extensive furnishing. Restaurants are not as complex but require the same kind of attention in their interior furnishing as well as in the choice of their kitchen equipment. Because the structure houses two complicated entities, feasibility analysis required a careful cost and schedule estimation. On the basis of several assumptions, a rough estimate of the cost and schedule of the entire structure has been developed along with a more detailed estimate of the two auditoriums and the restaurant. The study suggests that the interior finishing of such unique buildings represent a large fraction of their overall costs and construction time.
by Amelie Coste.
M.Eng.
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Books on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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Resources, United States Congress House Committee on. Amendment of Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 2889) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 1999.

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Pohl, Gerhard. Uncertainty and the discrepancy between rate-of-return estimates at project appraisal and project completion. Washington, DC (1818 H St. NW, Washington 20433): Office of the Senior Vice President Operations, the World Bank, 1991.

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Resources, United States Congress House Committee on. Amendments to the Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 4129) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2002.

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Amendments to the Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 4129) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2002.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Resources. To amend the Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 1823) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.?: U.S. G.P.O., 1996.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Resources. To amend the Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 1823) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.?: U.S. G.P.O., 1996.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Resources. Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 1659) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.?: U.S. G.P.O., 1998.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Resources. To amend the Central Utah Project Completion Act: Report (to accompany H.R. 1823) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.?: U.S. G.P.O., 1996.

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Administration, United States Federal Highway. The 1987 estimate of the cost of completing the Interstate System: Instruction manual. [Washington, D.C.]: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1986.

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Virginia. Dept. of Transportation., United States. Federal Highway Administration., and Appalachian Regional Commission, eds. 1992 estimate of the cost of completing the Appalachian Development Highway in the Commonwealth of Virginia. [Richmond]: Virginia Dept. of Transportation, 1992.

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Book chapters on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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Christensen, David S., Richard C. Antolini, and John W. McKinney. "A Review of Estimate at Completion Research." In Cost Estimating and Analysis, 207–24. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2936-0_11.

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Smith, Geraldine, David J. Edwards, and John J. Posillico. "A Comparative Analysis Between the Tender Estimate and the Actual Completion Cost of High Voltage Fluid Filled Cable Decommissioning." In Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, 487–503. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97748-1_36.

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Holm, Len, and John E. Schaufelberger. "Estimate summary." In Construction Cost Estimating, 234–47. First edition. | Abingdon, Oxon ; New York : Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, 2021. | Substantial re-write from previous estimating text: Construction Cost Estimating, Process and Practices by Holm, Schaufelberger, Griffin, and Cole; Pearson, 2005.: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003023494-24.

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Mueller, Frederick Wm. "Projections to Completion." In Integrated Cost and Schedule Control for Construction Projects, 417–46. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-9750-6_27.

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Duncan, William. "Make a Preliminary Construction Cost Estimate." In Substantial Rehabilitation & New Construction, 79–81. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-6539-6_19.

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Pulgarín, José Luis, Félix Ruíz, Camilo Mendoza, and Kelly Garcés. "Cost Estimate Migration for Crystal Reports." In Communications in Computer and Information Science, 117–32. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19951-6_8.

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Foias, C., A. E. Frazho, and W. S. Li. "The Exact H2 Estimate for the Central H∞ Interpolant." In New Aspects in Interpolation and Completion Theories, 119–56. Basel: Birkhäuser Basel, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8562-1_6.

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Scherer, Juliet Lilledahl, and Mirra Leigh Anson. "The Price of Completion at Any Cost." In Community Colleges and the Access Effect, 27–41. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137331007_4.

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Tschopp, Rea, Jan Hattendorf, Felix Roth, Adnan Choudhoury, Alexandra Shaw, Abraham Aseffa, and Jakob Zinsstag. "Cost Estimate of Bovine Tuberculosis to Ethiopia." In Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 249–68. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/82_2012_245.

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Tschopp, Rea, Jan Hattendorf, Felix Roth, Adnan Choudhoury, Alexandra Shaw, Abraham Aseffa, and Jakob Zinsstag. "Cost Estimate of Bovine Tuberculosis to Ethiopia." In Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 249–68. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-45792-4_245.

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Conference papers on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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Shelley, Robert, Oladapo Oduba, and Howard Melcher. "Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Provides Wolfcamp Completion Design Insight." In SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/204199-ms.

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Abstract The subject of this paper is the application of a unique machine learning approach to the evaluation of Wolfcamp B completions. A database consisting of Reservoir, Completion, Frac and Production information from 301 Multi-Fractured Horizontal Wolfcamp B Completions was assembled. These completions were from a 10-County area located in the Texas portion of the Permian Basin. Within this database there is a wide variation in completion design from many operators; lateral lengths ranging from a low of about 4,000 ft to a high of almost 15,000 ft, proppant intensities from 500 to 4,000 lb/ft and frac stage spacing from 59 to 769 ft. Two independent self-organizing data mappings (SOM) were performed; the first on completion and frac stage parameters, the second on reservoir and geology. Characteristics for wells assigned to each SOM bin were determined. These two mappings were then combined into a reservoir type vs completion type matrix. This type of approach is intended to remove systemactic errors in measuement, bias and inconsistencies in the database so that more realistic assessments about well performance can be made. Production for completion and reservoir type combinations were determined. As a final step, a feed forward neural network (ANN) model was developed from the mapped data. This model was used to estimate Wolfcamp B production and economics for completion and frac designs. In the performance of this project, it became apparent that the incorporation of reservoir data was essential to understanding the impact of completion and frac design on multi-fractured horizontal Wolfcamp B well production and economic performance. As we would expect, wells with the most permeability, higher pore pressure, effective porosity and lower water saturation have the greatest potential for hydrocarbon production. The most effective completion types have an optimum combination of proppant intensity, fluid intensity, treatment rate, frac stage spacing and perforation clustering. This paper will be of interest to anyone optimizing hydraulically fractured Wolfcamp B completion design or evaluating Permian Basin prospects. Also, of interest is the impact of reservoir and completion characteristics such as permeability, porosity, water saturation, pressure, offset well production, proppant intensity, fluid intensity, frac stage spacing and lateral length on well production and economics. The methodology used to evaluate the impact of reservoir and completion parameters for this Wolfcamp project is unique and novel. In addition, compared to other methodologies, it is low cost and fast. And though the focus of this paper is on the Wolfcamp B Formation in the Midland Basin, this approach and workflow can be applied to any formation in any Basin, provided sufficient data is available.
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Qatari, Ammar. "A Workflow to Estimate Critical Drawdown Pressure Utilizing 1-D Geomechanics Modelling." In Middle East Oil, Gas and Geosciences Show. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/213325-ms.

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Abstract The active mobility of sand particles during the production phase has put extra burden on the efficiency of hydrocarbon extraction for both oil and gas. It plays a significant role on completion design during the drilling phase. Minimizing the effect of sanding has been a major topic to tackle due to the added operational costs and time associated. Unconsolidated sand reservoirs are vastly affected worldwide due to the nature of sand particles accompanying hydrocarbon during the production phase. Sand production poses potential risks for surface and subsurface equipment within the completion design. The objective of this paper is to estimate and quantify the potentials of sand production and wellbore instability using 1-D Mechanical Earth Model (MEM). A clear workflow of the utility of raw petrophysical and 1-D geomechanics modelling data is showcased to aid production and completion operational personnel. Excessive stress concentrated around the wall of a borehole can cause the release of sand particles into the hydrocarbon stream. This process poses risks for drilling and completion operations as it affects the productivity of a well along with potential equipment damage. Unconsolidated sand reservoirs are prone to rock failure which induces the mobility of sand particles. Stress orientation regimes are properly captured by assessing the orientation of current petrophysical data. Acoustic data is also reviewed for proper in-situ rock strength property calculation. Formation pressure testing is vital to the process to estimate pore pressure gradients. Once MEM is finalized, Critical Drawdown Pressure (CDDP) is analytically calculated using the linear elastic methodology to predict sand production. The use of 1-D MEM sand management analysis to predict critical drawdown pressure is vital to avoid equipment damage and production limitations associated with sand production in a weakly consolidated reservoir. A workflow to produce an in-depth critical drawdown pressure analysis captures the changes that might occur for a perforation completion over time as it undergoes depletion. A representation of sand potential prediction and critical bottom-hole flowing pressure as a function of reservoir pressure is to be illustrated in a single depth format which allows for sensitivity analysis. This paper examines the direct impact of the analytical estimation of critical drawdown pressure as a guide to predict the potentials of sand production intervals within a certain reservoir. The mechanical properties, petrophysical raw data, and depletion status are the ingredients to produce a thorough analysis to guide drilling, production, and completion personnel to minimize sand production effects operationally. Further improvement to the model can be made by the integration of production data and reservoir properties that are captured over time.
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Moussa, Tamer, Jessica Barhaug, Darby Witt, Robert Hawkes, and Hassan Dehghanpour. "Linking Flowback Recovery to Completion Efficiency: Niobrara-DJ Basin Case Study." In SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/209136-ms.

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Abstract Near wellbore complexity is a current topic of discussion among geoscience and engineering disciplines across North America. Asset teams are constantly investing money and resources into the variety of near- and far-field wellbore diagnostic techniques to ascertain completion efficiency. These range from high-cost microseismic for far-field fracture placement to higher risk technologies such as fiber optics, cameras, and production logging tools. These techniques are generally used for parameter constraints for rate-transient-analysis (RTA) that requires months (and sometimes years) of production after post-frac flowback. Therefore, in this study we utilize flowback water-oil-ratio (WOR) as a diagnostic tool to provide early-time feedback for completion-efficiency evaluation. We analyze flowback, post-flowback and completion-design data of 19 multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHWs) completed in Niobrara and Codell formations that are classified into parent and child groups. Child wells are then sub-clustered into Zipper-1 and -2 completed with more and less intense completion strategy, respectively. First, we analyze the flowback rate and pressure profiles of the 19 wells to estimate initial pressure in the stimulated area around wellbore and validate it against the outcomes of diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT). Second, we apply rate-normalized-pressure (RNP) diagnostic analysis to a) investigate flow regimes during flowback and post-flowback periods; and b) assess interference between parent and child wells. Third, we use WOR diagnostic plots to estimate ultimate load recovery (ULR) and calculate initial effective fracture volume as two indicators for completion efficiency. We also cross-check the estimated effective fracture volume with microseismic dimensions. Finally, we apply rate-decline analysis on oil production data to predict ultimate oil recovery (UQo), assuming a critical oil rate of 1 stbd, and use it as a third performance indicator to evaluate the completion-design efficiency of each group. Child wells show 32% more load recovery compared with the parent wells. However, the parent wells show 38% and 50% more 9-months cumulative oil production (Qo) and UQo, respectively. For both the parent and child wells, more than 50% of the predicted ULR is produced back within the first three months of production. Although the intense completion-design strategy for Zipper-1 wells led to 35% larger effective fracture volume compared to Zipper-2 wells, both groups show similar oil recovery performance. Generally, Niobrara wells show less load recovery and effective fracture volume compared to Codell wells in each completion group.
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M Yusof, M. Hatta, M. Zarkashi Sulaiman, M. Faiz A Bakar, M. Fairuz Alwi, Fadli Adlan Muslim, Oka Fabian, Sunanda Magna Bela, and Syazwan A Ghani. "Low Cost Well Innovative for Slim Hole Application in East Malaysia Marginal Fields." In International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-21325-ms.

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Abstract This paper describes a step change by well completion group in adopting Single Trip Liner Open Hole Completion (STRIP-LOC) technology, basis of selection, design, and operation approach. This has contributed to the reduction in initial well cost estimates thus benefited overall project cost. The technology adoption signifies the importance for continuous design improvement, operational optimization, and capital expenditure reduction, while not compromising with technical and HSE standards.
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DeValve, Caleb, Gilbert Kao, Stephen Morgan, and Shawn Wu. "From Wellbore Breakout to Sand Production Prediction: An Integrated Sand Control Completion Design Methodology and Case Study." In SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/205935-ms.

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Abstract Controlling downhole sand production is a well-known and often-studied issue within the oil and gas industry. The methods employed for sand management, and their ultimate cost, is greatly impacted by the amount of sand produced by the well. This paper presents an innovative, physics-based approach to predict sand production for various reservoir and completion types, explored through a case study of recent production wells in a sandstone reservoir development. Sand control may be executed through a variety of methods, for example at the reservoir-completion interface using a sand control completion, at topside facilities through sand monitoring / de-sanding equipment, or by using well operational limits to avoid downhole sand failure. Although different strategies exist for effective sand management, some capability to estimate sand production is needed to design a holistic sand management strategy. This paper presents a physics-based approach to predicting sand production on a well-by-well basis to inform the overall sand management design. The workflow integrates (1) geomechanical estimate of wellbore breakout and volume of failed sand downhole, (2) log-based prediction of the sand particle size variation along the well path, (3) modeling of sand filtration based on experimental and analytical methods for specific completion options (e.g. Open Hole Gravel Pack [OHGP] or Stand-Alone Screen [SAS]), and (4) a natural sand pack permeability prediction for SAS completions and associated well performance analysis. This paper describes the methods used in this work in more detail as well as the application to five wells in a recent sandstone reservoir development. The workflow can be described as follows: First, log-based predictions for geomechanical properties and sand Particle Size Distributions (PSDs) were generated for specific wellpaths, and the volume of failed reservoir sand and PSD characteristics were predicted along the entire wellbore length. Next, this analysis was combined with a novel filtration model to determine sand retention and production, specific to various completion types. Additionally, for a SAS completion, the PSD and volume of retained sand in the annulus was computed as the wellbore experience borehole breakout, combined with an analytical model to calculate the natural sand pack permeability and well performance. This workflow was initially applied to study five development well producers, and the results influenced a mixed design of OHGP and SAS completions for individual wells. Sand production was measured during recent well startup to validate the workflow, with excellent agreement observed between measured field data and the physics-based predictions. This innovative, physics-based approach and the associated case study demonstrate a significant advancement in the area of sand production prediction from hydrocarbon production wells. The current workflow is able to deliver improved sand prediction capabilities over rules of thumb or analog field performance, which can be used to better inform overall sand management strategies and associated business value.
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Araújo, Caroline Silva, Leandro Cândido de Siqueira, Bruno Leão de Brito, and Emerson de Andrade Marques Ferreira. "Rotina de programação para geração de modelos BIM visando estimativas de custos." In XI SIMPÓSIO BRASILEIRO DE GESTÃO E ECONOMIA DA CONSTRUÇÃO. Antac, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46421/sibragec.v11i00.84.

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This study presents a comparison between a general programming routine and a reference routine from the literature. Both routines propose a cost estimate in the initial phases of the project using generative programming associated to BIM, which involves generating a model and extracting quantitative data through Dynamo, Revit and Excel software. The purpose of this study is to refine the reference routine to allow variations in the construction model by modifying only the data inputs, without having to change the programming structure for each new modeled solution. The research strategy adopted in this work is Design Science Research (DSR), which is oriented to the solution of relevant and pragmatic real-world problems. It has been divided into the stages of awareness, suggestion, development, evaluation and completion. In order to compare the results, the structural elements (beams, slabs and pillars) of a building were modeled through the general routine. The routine presented an error of 12% in relation to the budgeted cost and was considered a viable and fast solution for the creation of BIM models for preliminary cost estimates, in order to support decisions in the initial phases of the project.
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Donndelinger, Joseph A., and Peter A. Fenyes. "Application of Math-Based Marketing and Financial Tools in an Automated Parametric Design Framework." In ASME 2004 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2004-57437.

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A suite of math-based marketing and financial tools has been deployed and exercised within an automated, multidisciplinary parametric design framework. This suite of tools includes a market share estimator based on Cook’s S-Model, a Technical Cost Model for estimating the variable and fixed costs of the vehicle’s body system, a database of cost estimates for other vehicle systems, and a profit estimator developed from a standard accounting template. Development of the S-Model market share estimator included completion of a Demand-Price analysis for the midsize sedan segment and collection of publicly available value curves predominantly covering the powertrain performance and interior roominess disciplines. A flexible input-output interface was developed for the Technical Cost Model to provide a means of propagating changes in body design parameters throughout the framework. A series of exercises including analysis of a baseline vehicle, optimization of a hypothetical vehicle concept for net income, and a hypothetical architectural parameter study were conducted to demonstrate the capabilities of a multidisciplinary parametric design framework enabled with marketing and financial tools. These exercises demonstrate that existing engineering and business discipline tools can effectively interoperate to design for profitability in a multidisciplinary parametric design environment. They also illustrate several key challenges in automated design for profitability, such as those encountered in defining the role of price as a design variable in a tightly coupled design-for-profit system and in generating cost estimates using a continuously variable design representation.
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Alotaibi, Najd, and Serkan Dursun. "Optimizing the Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Systems Using the Completion and Production Data in Bakken Shale." In Middle East Oil, Gas and Geosciences Show. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/213360-ms.

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Abstract Objectives/Scope. Well completion is an important step for every well to undergo in order to prepare it for oil and gas extraction. Based on the nature and characteristics of an oil and gas reservoir, appropriate well completion practices are selected to enhance the production. Hydraulic fracturing is one such technique. It frequently involves horizontal drilling and injecting fluids under high pressure to fracture the rock. The larger fractures along with the injected fluid enable high amounts of trapped natural gas and crude oil to flow out of the formation to the producing well bore. In well completion, a variety of chemicals are employed to leverage oil production, and the goal of this study is to determine how such chemicals impact performance rate in several unconventional wells in the Bakken Shale. Methods, Procedures, Process. In this approach, two Completion and Production datasets from North Dakota (the Bakken Shale) and fracFocus were processed and combined accordingly which resulted in some of the following parameters, type of chemical and amount of chemical, and true vertical depth of the wells. And the dataset that was produced was analyzed based on the stimulation treatment. The proposed workflow utilizes supervised machine learning algorithms to train different predictive models to estimate the amount of the produced oil; including but not limited to neural Random Forest, CATboost and XGboost. Additionally, by quantifying each chemicals’ importance on oil production, this investigation was able to determine each chemical's influence. Results, Observations, Conclusions. This study examined the impact of more than 2500 different completion chemicals on the oil production of unconventional reservoir and discovered the chemicals with the highest significance on the oil production, given that, the predictive models were able to estimate the oil production accurately after feeding it with the type and measures of the most influencing chemicals. Novel/Additive Information. The most important pillar of this framework is that it expedites the workflow of hydraulic fracturing jobs in the unconventional reservoir by providing an accurate model that optimizes its parameters to maximize the oil production rate. This solution offers an automated decision-making process for the selection of chemical types to be used in the hydraulic fracking jobs. The choice of chemicals in fracturing fluids is affected by many variables, including its compatibility with the target rock formation to be hydraulically fractured, the geology of the rock formations being drilled through, the pressure and temperature measurements in the target formation, cost, operator preference, and possible interactions between chemicals in the treatment fluid.
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Subbiah, Surej Kumar, Assef Mohamad-Hussein, Ariffin Samsuri, Mohd Zaidi Jaafar, Ying Ru Chen, Andrew Pearce, Rajeev Ranjan Kumar, Rajendra Nath Paramanathan, and Lex de Groot. "New Numerical Method for Sand Production Propensity Estimation." In Middle East Oil, Gas and Geosciences Show. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/213381-ms.

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Abstract The sandstone reservoir rock failure during production may lead to sand production issues and may impact the economics of field development strategy, especially deep-water operation. The lifting cost can be higher as the issue can lead to metal-erosion, well integrity and oil/gas leakage. In the absence of a sand control mechanism (screenless-completions), the production rates often reduced to bound the severity of sanding and its consequences. In nutshell, the wrong decision for the type of completion prior to drilling and production may risk the financial feasibility of the field. Therefore, an accurate prediction of sand production volume/rates is essential during the well planning. Having this information upfront will able the operators to select the best sand-management plan for the well and field economically (best productivity and highest ultimate recovery while keeping the operating cost low. This paper reviews the ingredients required for sand propensity modeling, not limited to onset sanding drawdown but also the sand propensity (volume). A new proposed modeling technique for sand production propensity will be discussed. The new innovative modelling techniques (fully coupled with fluid dynamics) is powered by a new constitutive elastoplastic and damage model. The newly developed failure criteria give better insight for rock mechanical behavior honoring pre and post-failure stages enabling the usage for sand production analysis to estimate the sanding propensity which includes stress stabilization. Validation and comparison between laboratory testing and numerical modeling for sand production volume presented using the newly developed modeling techniques namely perforation cavity geometry stabilization and grid cell removal.
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El Maimouni, Fadwa, Omar Mirza, Abdelkader Aissaoui, Shawn Almstrong, Yann Bigno, Osama Keshtta, Gaya Almazrouei, et al. "First Permanent Inflow Monitoring Experience in a Smart-Liner, Intelligent-Completion, Multi-Lateral Adnoc Offshore Well." In Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207963-ms.

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Abstract The scope of this paper is to share a field experience with permanent inflow tracer deployment and monitoring of an intelligent multi-lateral well, completed with Smart-Liner (Limited Entry Liner). It will describe what ADNOC Offshore has learnt through inflow tracing clean up surveillance from several restarts and steady state production through inflow modelling interpretation techniques. This passive method of permanent monitoring technology utilizes chemistry and materials expertise to design tracers that release signature responses when they come into contact with either in-situ oil or formation water. The chemical tracer technology enables wireless monitoring capabilities for up to five years. Unique chemical tracers are embedded in porous polymer matrix inside tracer carriers along select locations in the lower completion to correlate where the oil and water is flowing in a production well. Interpreting tracer signals can provide zonal rate information by inducing transients to create tracer signals that are transported by flow to surface and captured in sample bottles for analysis. The measured signals are matched with models through history matching to yield zonal rate estimates. ADNOC Offshore has installed inflow tracers in an intelligent multi-lateral well to monitor laterals’ contributions, to verify new completion technology, and to estimate the flow profile from individual sections of Smart-Liner, run for the first time in the field. The interpretation results have been able to characterize inflow performance without any intervention in the well. Several restart and steady state surveys are planned to understand some key characteristics of the well completion and reveal how the well has changed since it was put on production. This technology will help allocate commingled production to the three laterals. The use of inflow tracers will provide multiple inflow surveys that will reduce operational risk, well site personnel, costs and will improve reservoir management practices. Permanent inflow tracing is expected to change the way production monitoring can be performed, especially in advanced wells where PLTs or Fiber Optic technology cannot access multi-laterals.
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Reports on the topic "Cost estimate at completion"

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Christensen, David S. Value Cost Management Report to Evaluate the Contractor's Estimate at Completion. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, January 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada372133.

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Ferreyra, Maria Marta, Carlos Garriga, Juan D. Martin-Ocampo, and Angélica María Sánchez Díaz. Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help? Banco de la República de Colombia, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1155.

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Free college proposals have become increasingly popular in many countries of the world. To evaluate their potential effects, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of college enrollment, performance, and graduation. A central piece of the model, student effort, has a direct effect on class completion, and an indirect effect in mitigating the risk of not completing a class or not remaining in college. We estimate the model using rich, student-level administrative data from Colombia, and use the estimates to simulate free college programs that differ in eligibility requirements. Among these, universal free college expands enrollment the most, but it does not affect graduation rates and has the highest per-graduate cost. Performance-based free college, in contrast, delivers a slightly lower enrollment expansion yet a greater graduation rate at a lower per-graduate cost. Relative to universal free college, performance-based free college places a greater risk on students but is precisely this feature that delivers better outcomes. Nonetheless, the modest increase in graduation rates suggests that additional, complementary policies might be required to elicit the large effort increase needed to raise graduation rates.
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Kaffenberger, Michelle, and Lant Pritchett. Women’s Education May Be Even Better Than We Thought: Estimating the Gains from Education When Schooling Ain’t Learning. Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE), September 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-rise-wp_2020/049.

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Women’s schooling has long been regarded as one of the best investments in development. Using two different cross-nationally comparable data sets which both contain measures of schooling, assessments of literacy, and life outcomes for more than 50 countries, we show the association of women’s education (defined as schooling and the acquisition of literacy) with four life outcomes (fertility, child mortality, empowerment, and financial practices) is much larger than the standard estimates of the gains from schooling alone. First, estimates of the association of outcomes with schooling alone cannot distinguish between the association of outcomes with schooling that actually produces increased learning and schooling that does not. Second, typical estimates do not address attenuation bias from measurement error. Using the new data on literacy to partially address these deficiencies, we find that the associations of women’s basic education (completing primary schooling and attaining literacy) with child mortality, fertility, women’s empowerment and the associations of men’s and women’s basic education with positive financial practices are three to five times larger than standard estimates. For instance, our country aggregated OLS estimate of the association of women’s empowerment with primary schooling versus no schooling is 0.15 of a standard deviation of the index, but the estimated association for women with primary schooling and literacy, using IV to correct for attenuation bias, is 0.68, 4.6 times bigger. Our findings raise two conceptual points. First, if the causal pathway through which schooling affects life outcomes is, even partially, through learning then estimates of the impact of schooling will underestimate the impact of education. Second, decisions about how to invest to improve life outcomes necessarily depend on estimates of the relative impacts and relative costs of schooling (e.g., grade completion) versus learning (e.g., literacy) on life outcomes. Our results do share the limitation of all previous observational results that the associations cannot be given causal interpretation and much more work will be needed to be able to make reliable claims about causal pathways.
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Stinson, Margaret, Dawn Garmenn, and Chris Harris. Logistic Vehicle System Replacement Cost Estimate. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada401488.

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de Rosset, William S. Cost Estimate for Gun Liner Emplacement. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, August 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada549143.

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Nguyen, Tu Anh, and Raymond H. Byrne. Energy Storage Cost Estimate for New Jersey. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), March 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1608517.

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Wheeler, D. Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/893442.

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Scheibner, K. Cost Estimate for Laser Isotope Separation for RIA. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/15014826.

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Quinly, C. Construction Cost Estimate Livermore Site Solar Generation Project. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1097762.

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Stoddard, Larry, Daniel Andrew, Shannon Adams, and Geoff Galluzzo. Molten Salt: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), June 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1335150.

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