Academic literature on the topic 'Context-driven activity theory'

Many scholars have highlighted the importance of economic competitiveness for entrepreneurial activity, and hence economic growth. However, few studies quantitatively analyse the interrelationship between competitiveness and its role in increasing entrepreneurial activity at various stages of development. The aim of this study is to fill this gap in the entrepreneurship literature and to study the causal relationship between the ?pillars? of competitiveness and the different macroeconomic effects of entrepreneurship, mediated by entrepreneurial behaviour, in a panel of 81 factor-, efficiency-, and innovation-driven countries during 2012-2017. Using a MIMIC model, the results show that innovation, higher education, and technological readiness have a positive and significant impact on the level of entrepreneurial activity in the three groups of countries. In addition, development of the financial market and market size has a positive impact on entrepreneurship in factor-driven countries. Higher education and institutional strengthening have a positive and significant impact on the level of entrepreneurship in the efficiency- and innovation-driven countries, but are not significant in factor-driven countries. Moreover, the impact of infrastructure on the level of entrepreneurial activity in the factor-, efficiency-, and innovationdriven countries is positive. Good entrepreneurial behaviour generates a simultaneous and/or medium-term favourable effect on the growth of gross domestic product, exports, imports, and employment rate. Therefore, besides immediate growth, it also assures sustainable economic and social progress in the analysed countries. Our results confirm previous findings of empirical studies in the field. These findings are consistent with received economic theory on how national context affects entrepreneurial activity.

Architectural professionals can contribute to efforts at achieving sustainable urbanism. However, the realm of professional discourse is extremely limited. Grounded architectural practice (GAP) is developed as a conceptual framework to explore an emergent form of contextually appropriate architectural practice in the context of a resident-driven in situ informal settlement upgrading project. The exploration takes the form of a descriptive narrative. Each challenge that arose during the descriptive narrative was mapped according to Engeström’s activity system model, an analytical tool emanating from cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT). By participating in live projects in informal settlements and analysing these projects by means of CHAT, the authors explored the highly improvising and generative everyday practices of the urban majority. Architectural practice in such a context requires a multi-disciplinary approach which extends beyond conventional professional boundaries, and attention must be paid to building the capacity of all participants to function in such uncharted territory.

Context. The Rieger cycles were discovered in the Sun as a specific 154-day periodicity of flare occurrence; they strongly influence terrestrial space weather. This phenomenon is far from being understood. Various proposed mechanisms for this periodicity need further verification in stars with stellar parameters different from those of the Sun. Aims. In this work, we study the Rieger-type cycle (RTC) periods PRTC of stellar activity surveyed in the photometric data of the Kepler space telescope. Methods. The processing of 1726 stellar light curves reveals statistics of PRTC values for different main-sequence stars with different effective temperatures Teff and periods of rotation P. This study uses as an index of stellar activity the squared amplitude of the first rotational harmonic A12 of the stellar light curve variability. Results. The obtained information on PRTC of the considered stars confirms the phenomenological analogy between stellar RTCs and the solar Rieger cycles. Two types of RTCs were found: (1) activity cycles with PRTC independent on the stellar rotation, which are typical for the stars with Teff ≲ 5500 K, and (2) activity cycles with PRTC proportional to the stellar rotation period P, which take place on stars with Teff ≳ 6300 K. These two types of RTCs can be driven by the Kelvin and Rossby waves, respectively. The Rossby wave-driven RTCs show a relation with the location of tachocline at shallow depths in the hot stars. This confirms the theoretical predictions of the connection of the RTC with the tachocline. At the same time, the Kelvin wave-driven RTCs do not show this connection. Apparently, both types of wave drivers of RTCs can coexist, resulting in the joint modulation of the magnetic flux tubes emergence by Kelvin and Rossby waves, and the corresponding behavior of PRTC. Conclusions. The signatures of two types of wave drivers discovered for RTCs and their different relations with the tachocline call for a revision and further elaboration of the theory of RTCs.

Physical activity promotion in the academic classroom (PAPAC) is an effective means for increasing children’s school-based physical activity. In the context of a South Carolina policy requiring elementary schools to provide children with 90 min of physical activity beyond physical education every week, the purpose of this study was to test a theoretical model of elementary classroom teachers’ (ECT) PAPAC adoption drawing from Rogers’ (1995) diffusion of innovations theory and a social ecological perspective. ECTs (N = 201) were assessed on their policy awareness, perceived school support for PAPAC, perceived attributes of PAPAC, domain-specific innovativeness, and self-reported PAPAC. Partial least squares analysis supported most of the hypothesized relationships. Policy awareness predicted perceived school support, which in turn predicted perceived attributes and domain-specific innovativeness. Perceived compatibility, simplicity, and observability, and domain-specific innovativeness predicted self-reported PAPAC. This study identifies variables that should be considered in policy-driven efforts to promote PAPAC adoption.

The adoption and integration of renewable energy technologies (RETs) into buildings is key to making the necessary transition to low-carbon and resilient built environments. However, such technologies have struggled to gain a firm foothold in countries within the sub-Saharan African (SSA) region. This is particularly the case in Nigeria, which suffers from severe energy poverty, despite its significant RE and conventional energy potential. In Nigeria, a significant proportion of the energy demand for offices is provided by self-powered off-grid fossil-fuel generators. The country is also one of the primary settings for increased construction activity. This, combined with its susceptibility to the effects of climate change, presents significant concerns relating to the resilience of its built environment. However, there has not yet been a comprehensive empirical study addressing this, as previous studies have been limited in their insight and perspectives. This study adopted a grounded theory method (GTM) aligned with Charmaz’s approach, to gain in-depth participant-driven insights into factors influencing sustainable energy use in commercial buildings, focusing on solar photovoltaics (PVs). This led to the development of a theory of the sustainability transition process of construction professionals (CPs). It provides relevant, reliable, and relatable points of reference that would be beneficial to policymakers in developing plans for actionable interventions for PV and broader sustainable measures toward green energy transition. Furthermore, it highlights the value of employing GTMs in construction management research beyond the developing context. This paper contributes theoretically, empirically, and methodologically to facilitate a better understanding of the situations (context) grounded in empirical data.

Purpose This purpose of this paper is to use autoethnographic methods to enable an individual to reflect on their learning practices and habits in their professional role in computing and data science. Design/methodology/approach Action reflection cycles with autoethnographic methods are used in this enquiry to examine and transform the self-driven learning in the role of a professional in the context of computing and data science. Data are collected using personal thoughts and emotions in order to determine to what degree the changes that are brought about are improving their learning practice. Findings An incongruity between espoused theory and theory-in-use is identified. In this paper the authors explore how engaging in reflection within the structure of an action research framework can change the learning behaviour of an individual, motivating them to engage more positively and consistently with self-directed learning in their workplace environment. Research limitations/implications Through analysis of reflective journals key aspects of personal and professional life that influences the individual’s approach to the learning tasks is identified. In addition, activity logs are maintained which collect information on the tasks that are undertaken. These activity logs are automatically generated using specific task-tracking software. Double-loop learning (Argyris and Schön, 1974) helps to identify the values that underpin the learning practice. Practical implications By resolving the tension created due to the incongruity of values, the individual has been able to find more motivation for learning and thus become more engaged in the learning process. Social implications Participation in the knowledge economy requires individuals to engage in continuous learning. Organisations that support individuals in continuous learning are best adapted to take advantage of emergent and evolving knowledge and skill requirements. Originality/value This paper examined the behaviour of an individual engaging in self-directed learning and showed how through engagement with reflection and critical self-analysis, he increased his motivation and efficiency for self-directed learning. The authors show how this skill becomes increasingly important in modern knowledge economy workplaces.

Abstract Motivation Network-based analyses of high-throughput genomics data provide a holistic, systems-level understanding of various biological mechanisms for a common population. However, when estimating multiple networks across heterogeneous sub-populations, varying sample sizes pose a challenge in the estimation and inference, as network differences may be driven by differences in power. We are particularly interested in addressing this challenge in the context of proteomic networks for related cancers, as the number of subjects available for rare cancer (sub-)types is often limited. Results We develop NExUS (Network Estimation across Unequal Sample sizes), a Bayesian method that enables joint learning of multiple networks while avoiding artefactual relationship between sample size and network sparsity. We demonstrate through simulations that NExUS outperforms existing network estimation methods in this context, and apply it to learn network similarity and shared pathway activity for groups of cancers with related origins represented in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) proteomic data. Availability and implementation The NExUS source code is freely available for download at https://github.com/priyamdas2/NExUS. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Purpose Based on the Oktoberfest context and memory-dominant logic (MDL), the purpose of the study included assessing drivers of the perceptions of experience uniqueness; if these drivers and experience uniqueness perceptions transformed in memorable experiences; and if memorable experiences translated into enhanced life satisfaction. Based on these relationships, a typology and theory extension is provided integrating practical examples. Design/methodology/approach A five-factor model was tested using exploratory structural equation modeling and structural equation modeling; the factors included food and beverage quality; connectedness; experience uniqueness; meaningfulness and memorability; and life satisfaction. Findings Guests connectedness impacted life satisfaction perceptions. Positive perceptions of the experience uniqueness resulted in higher memorability. Food and beverage quality impacted both memorability and life satisfaction. Higher memorability resulted in higher life satisfaction. Attendee nationality impacted the relationship among several of the study’s factors. Research limitations/implications Progress was made on assessing the MDL concepts and translating them into quantitative values. Study results supported the impact of connectedness and product quality on perceptions of Oktoberfest experience uniqueness along with the impact of meaningfulness of the experience on life satisfaction perceptions. The authors acknowledged limitations because of one Oktoberfest beer tent focus and the weaknesses of survey methodology, limiting pre- and post-activity reporting and future investigation of moderating effects. Practical implications The consideration of higher order impacts (i.e. life satisfaction) is needed when delivering experiences and to entice loyalty and social media apostles. Consumers’ experience connectedness with high-quality perceptions and unique service design are likely to translate to memorable experiences, leading to life satisfaction perceptions. The concept of creating the experience “with” the customer appears to be a key aspect of memorability. Originality/value These results tested aspects of MDL and a typology emerged of ideal types as a modified MDL framework driven by two continua: transactional vs experiential quality and experiences designed “to” vs “with” customers.

This chapter explores some of the strategies used by event-driven hedge funds, namely merger arbitrage, trading distressed securities, special situations, and activism. This broad category within the hedge fund space attracts about a quarter of the capital deployed to this part of the alternatives world. Investors are drawn to the idea of uncorrelated returns that can act as a source of diversification for their portfolios as well as the ability to follow the news flow related to their investments. In essence, such trades should have identifiable catalysts and time frames. The chapter offers illustrative examples of historical trades, providing some context of the types of positions funds may take and time frames involved. Various skill sets should be sought in an event-driven manager. Managers dealing in distressed securities are likely to benefit from a legal expertise, whereas activists need to be able to influence management and campaign publically.

Embracing risk and ambiguity, rather than closure and certainty, a third typology of reconciliation theorists have emerged. Calling themselves agonists, they emphasize that reconciliation is fundamentally open-ended, deliberative, and has to strive consciously to include “conflict through other means.” Seen through this lens, reconciliation is more a process-oriented activity than an outcomes-driven one. Agonist reconciliation understands its inception as the call, amid conflict, to political community. Its unfolding is described as incessant discourse and debate, and its promise is understood as the commitment never to stop debating the terms of togetherness in a given context. My criticism of this position rests on two points: underestimating what it takes to overcome violence, and its one-sided emphasis on process at the expense of any predetermined outcomes—a situation that would, I argue, be unacceptable especially to those victims of oppression who correctly demand redress and justice as definite predetermined outcomes of reconciliation.

In 2018, the GDPR started a revolution in the data protection world. One of the most far-reaching developments of the new regulation was the chapter on data subject rights. Old rights were strengthened and extended, and several new rights were introduced. For data subjects who felt overwhelmed with the information overload, the GDPR meant a promise of more individual control over data. In combination with severe financial penalties, the revised rights brought the potential to become a vehicle of data protection law enforcement. However, there are still many uncertainties related to data subject rights due to the fact that the GDPR only recently entered into force. The Court of Justice of the EU and other EU governmental authorities have not yet had the time to provide thorough and updated guidance (although the court has been actively adjudicating on these individual rights ever since the GDPR was adopted). Not only is the lack of guidance a problem, the applicability of data subject rights is strongly influenced by the economic and social (data-driven) context. This book provides a thorough analysis of data subject rights under the new GDPR framework and their legal operation. The goal is to help individuals (lawyers and others) to navigate the subject area and/or possibly pursue claims. Its additional value is that it considers the rights in a big data environment and therefore more accurately points out inefficiencies and provides criticism where needed.

This book explores the stories of biblical mothers who were placed at key junctures in Israel’s history to renegotiate the destinies not only of their own children, dead or lost, but also those of larger communities, i.e. family lines, ethnic groups, or entire nations. Since ‘rites in general are a context for the creation and transformation of social order’, these women used the circumstance of child loss as a platform for a kind of grief-driven socio-political activism. As maternal bereavement is generally understood as the most intense of all types of loss and was seen as archetypal of all mourning in the ancient Near East, Israelite communities in crisis deemed sorrowing motherhood as a potent agent in bringing about their own survival and resurgence back to normalcy. The book considers (1) modern examples of socio-political engagement among women that stems from child loss; (2) a survey of recent grief studies that identify maternal grief as the most intense and the most enduring among other types of bereavement; and (3) an overview of ancient Near Eastern cultures that viewed maternal grief as paradigmatic of all mourning and used ritual actions performed by mothers in contexts of large-scale catastrophes as mechanisms for dealing with a collective trauma. Against this background, the book discusses Hagar (Gen. 21), Rizpah (2 Sam. 21), the Tekoite (2 Sam. 14), and Rachel (Jer. 31), all of whom perform rites for their dying or dead children and exhibit a form of advocacy for society at large.

AbstractThis chapter explores emerging findings from the research question, “What characterizes a successful transition of a school from traditional classrooms to an innovative learning environment in the context of the design and construction process?” Many schools today are trading in their identical classroom model for activity-driven, technology-infused spaces and envision a future in which teaching, culture, and space align seamlessly resulting in the intangible “buzz” of engaged learning. However, research and experience show many of these schools fail to supplement the design and construction process with initiatives to align teaching practices, organizational structures, and leadership with the intended vision. This often results in a misalignment between the pedagogical goals of the building and its subsequent use. To provide a research-based course of action for transitioning schools and a basis for future Ph.D. study, exploratory case studies were completed of schools operating in new buildings and having achieved this “buzz”. Emerging best-practice processes and tools are shared.

Regularly experiencing forced evictions, drug and gang activity, policy brutality, spatial stigmatization, employment and education discrimination, and racism, favela residents are situated at the intersection of multiple power formations and inequalities. Yet, favelados are also known for their distinctive cultural traditions found in music, food, art, religion, and social organisation. Key to the latter of these traditions are the figures and leaders (e.g. Afro-Brazilians, women, labor activists, church officials, and both urban and rural poor) responding to the political and social power dynamics that contour the city’s and country’s iniquitous social life. Some activists intervening into these structures can be framed through Gramsci’s understanding of organic intellectuals. One such organic intellectual, we suggest, is Itamar Silva, whose role in the struggle for equality, power, and social justice is evident within his actions and relationship with Grupo Eco, a community organization in favela Santa Marta, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We illustrate the relevance and consideration of politically-driven local activists, leadership, and context in the process and product of Co-Creation.

This chapter takes as its research starting point a critical and convergent review and reexamination of existing theory and knowledge about entrepreneurship and sustainability. We question whether smart cities provide the ideal context for sustainability entrepreneurship (SE) to emerge and how sustainability-driven entrepreneurs can contribute to the development of smarter and more sustainable tourism destinations. Hence, we examine SE tourism and hospitality businesses implemented by these so-called ‘smart citizens' in Lisbon (Portugal), a city that arguably provides the necessary context for smart decisions to flourish. This chapter thus aims at opening up new modes of inquiry and questioning existing epistemologies on the study of smart cities and entrepreneurship that help breaking new ground about the role of entrepreneurs in the tourism activity.

This chapter takes as its research starting point a critical and convergent review and reexamination of existing theory and knowledge about entrepreneurship and sustainability. We question whether smart cities provide the ideal context for sustainability entrepreneurship (SE) to emerge and how sustainability-driven entrepreneurs can contribute to the development of smarter and more sustainable tourism destinations. Hence, we examine SE tourism and hospitality businesses implemented by these so-called ‘smart citizens' in Lisbon (Portugal), a city that arguably provides the necessary context for smart decisions to flourish. This chapter thus aims at opening up new modes of inquiry and questioning existing epistemologies on the study of smart cities and entrepreneurship that help breaking new ground about the role of entrepreneurs in the tourism activity.

This chapter studies how the scope of global politics has been extended over the last half century or so to include the impact of human industrial activity on the environment. The environmental movement and ‘green theory’ have grown out of concerns with the deleterious impact of this activity and the capacity of the planet to carry the burden of ‘business as usual’ in a world driven by the imperatives of endless growth. Many now believe that the impact on the earth’s systems is so significant that the present geological period should be recognized as the ‘Anthropocene’. Climate change is probably the most prominent issue associated with the Anthropocene at present, but it is not the only one. The chapter examines a range of issues in global environment politics, starting with the reconceptualization of the present period. It then moves on to an account of the environmental movement, the emergence of various ‘green’ ideologies and theories, and the politics of science. This is essential background for considering the role of the state and its sovereign powers in the context of global environmental politics.

There are numerous forecast models of software development costs, however, various problems become apparent in context to practical application. Standardized methods, such as COCOMO II have to be calibrated at an individual operational level on the basis of the underlying database. This paper presents a new activity based approach that is based on business specific cost data that can be easily integrated into existing management accounting systems. This approach can be applied to software development projects based on the unified process in which activity driven budgeting promises several advantages compared to common tools in use. It supports enterprise specific cost forecasting and control and can be easily linked with risk analysis. In addition to the presentation of a conceptual design model, the authors present a framework for activity driven budgeting and cost management of software development projects combined with concrete implementation examples.

Abstract This chapter looks at corporate activism on animal welfare within the context of dog sledding tourism businesses in northern Finland. Using institutional theory and care ethics, the chapter explores and illustrates how a group of husky kennels engage in political action to induce change to improve the living and working conditions of sled dogs. In the chapter, special attention is given to the motivation of these small business owners as well as the barriers to, and strategies for, their political struggle. Finally, the theoretical framework used in the chapter makes a contribution to animal welfare activism in terms of an ethical position that is driven not only by justice, but also by care, compassion, and other feelings experienced through multispecies relationships.

Pagers and phone conversations have been the stalwarts of hospital communication. With good reason - they are simple, reliable and relatively inexpensive. However, with the increasing complexity of patient care, the need for greater speed and the general inexorable progress of health technology, hospital communication systems appear to be increasingly inefficient, non-secure, and inadequate. Thus, this study is proposed to answer the key research question: How can ICT (information communication technology) solutions ameliorate the current challenges regarding communication inefficiencies within healthcare? To answer this question, the study will design and develop a bespoke ICT solution for a specific context using three strong theories; communication theory, activity theory and agency theory to make a robust body of knowledge for the proposed solution. Further, it will serve to establish proof of concept, usability and feasibility of the proffered solution. The study participants will be selected from medical and nursing staff.

The past 20 years have seen the rapid expansion of one development theory, that of sustainable development. This theory provided the opportunity for all stakeholders to be able to be involved in development projects. However, regarding issues of sustainable development, there is a historical tendency for these issues to be driven by top-down and technocratic agendas. Nevertheless, it is argued that the various stakeholders should be brought together and allowed to express their perspectives and perceptions, and that they should actively be involved in any developmental process. Within this context, this chapter argues that the adoption of a participatory, inter-disciplinary approach by the scientists/researchers in the development of sustainability indicators (with a focus on soil quality sustainability indicators) for use in agricultural ecosystems, can lead to the development of appropriate assessment tools that are meaningful to farmers and related to their understandings.

"The incorporation of deep learning models into architectural design poses challenges, despite their potential to inform new design processes. One of these issues is the oversimplification of the design problem when employing a discrete, single AI model to tackle a multifaceted, complex design activity. Importantly, the investigation of DL-driven systems requires the identification of components (parts) and relationships between these constituents of this new design workflow. The need to investigate a functional AI-driven design workflow structure with design intentions encoded and incorporated into a human-supervised process is an additional important issue identified by this research. How can specific levels of agency be identified and made explicit in the context of interacting with learning systems? This study investigates a novel human-AI collaborative workflow that combines machine and designer creativity within a comprehensive framework. The focus was on developing a design system, a ""prototype"" with interconnected AI and agent-based models (ABM) to address multiple architectural systems at various design levels (design tasks, design phases) while enacting the designer's varying degrees of agency. Curation of datasets, network types, and connection strategies are the design intentions when working with AI models. In developing a new design workflow, we employ systems theory and the need to deconstruct the design process into its component parts. Design is considered an ""exploration activity"" because it involves the modification and evolution of both the problem goals (design requirements) and the methods and means used to achieve the goals. The investigation centered on prototyping feasible workflows with the following objectives: (1) establishing successful interconnectivities between multiple DL models within the process to manage architectural systems and layers; (2) emphasizing design agency and embedding intentions within each design task within the process. The proposed prototype was applied to three case studies to demonstrate the framework's potential, evaluate its functionality, and assess the outcomes. The experiment described here followed the format of a three-month project (Figure 1). The framework included the use of DL models for (i) design exploration, (ii) generation, revision, and evaluation, and (iii) project development. To examine different types of DL model connections at a global level, the following strategies were identified and implemented: sequential/(unidirectional); parallel and linear; and branching (design problem is broken down into subtasks defined by separate sets of AI models), branching off, or/and merging into a design solution. Designers are the choreographers of how discrete AI models interact with other discrete AI models and human agents. Using this concept as a guide, we can determine the levels of autonomy that the proposed framework driven by interconnected AI can provide. (a) dataset curation: limited agency; (b) types of networks: supervised or unsupervised (StyleGAN, Pix2Pix, CycleGAN); (c) types of connections and combinations of those connections (sequential, parallel, branching)."

Abstract Oil and gas operators continue to seek better ways to unlock value from operational data and drive consistent, predictable performance while mitigating risk on a well-to-well basis. This paper describes how a wellsite Edgecomputing solution was developed to connect and orchestrate the well-activity plan with wellsite advisory systems, provide unified instructions for drilling automation systems, improve the human-to-system interface, and connect cloud-based data lakes to real-time wellsite operations. Crucially, the system leverages open technologies and frameworks to expand options and provide a low-barrier entry point to automation for all vendors. In this new environment, multiple engineering applications can execute in parallel in a distributed microservice-based system ensuring the most pertinent models are continuously leveraged and anchored to the current operational situation. The engineering outputs are then orchestrated against current and future operational context to manage drilling limiters while anticipating and mitigating possible dysfunctions and inefficiencies. As automation has become a mainstream technology in well construction, there is a need for open platforms that integrate both well-activity plans and engineering systems into automated decision-making rig systems. This paper provides details on how this gap has been closed through a vendor-agnostic platform, which aggregates high-frequency, low-latency real-time data with well-planning information and hybrid data-driven models to provide closed-loop control and context-based decision making that interoperates directly with surface and subsurface drilling-automation systems.

To stay competitive in today’s high market volatility and globalization, cross-organizational business information systems and processes are deemed to be knowledge-intensive (e.g. rulecentric), highly adaptive and context-aware, that is explicitly responding to their surrounding environment, user’s preferences and sensing devices. Towards achieving these objectives in developing such applications, we put forwards in this paper a stepwise service-oriented approach that exhibits an explicit separation of concerns, that is, we first conceptualize the mandatory functionalities and then separately and explicitly consider the added-values of contextual concerns, which we then integrate at both the fine-grained activity-level and the coarse-grained process-level to reflect their intuitive business semantics. Secondly, the proposed approach is based on business rule-centric architectural techniques, with emphasis on Event-Conditions-Actions (ECA)-driven transient tailored and adaptive architectural connectors. As third benefit, for formal underpinnings towards rapid-prototyping and validation, we semantically interpret the approach into rewriting logic and its true-concurrent and reflective operational semantics governed by the intrinsic practical Maude language.

The disparity between education and practice continues to dominate academic discourse, but oftentimes forgotten is the impact that agency plays in architectural education and, in turn, a student’s presence and contributions within the future of the built environment. Integrating a haptic and tangible process with easily recognizable social implications alongside traditional didactic models in architectural education engenders a sense of empowerment and obligation to a larger social authority. How might agency drive the education of an architect? In addition to teaching technical skills, how might academia address the methods to develop students’ skill sets working with and through local and political actors? Implemented as an experimental design-build course, the intention is to enable students to apply their understanding of the design thinking process and knowledge of architectural principles in their community. The specific course that is the case study engages students across a variety of levels outside their comfort zone through collaborating with departments, administrators, and stakeholders to truly understand the inner workings of a project at the scale of a community. The outcomes, presented through a case study of an experimental course, further exemplify how architecture students employ the concepts of environmental psychology and participatory planning in action, within the context of a semester-long design-build, to create a more integrated user-driven approach to architectural education. Leveraging the next generation of thinkers by empowering them to apply their skills for the betterment of society is critical to the future. In cultivating experiences that empower students, it is imperative to recognize each student’s ability to impact the built environment, further establishing the basis of their responsibility as a designer through developing a sense of collective agency in their design education. Therefore, not only addressing but actively pursuing engagement in the context of their education transforms their academic experience from a passive learner to an active participant.

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between −1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the “ripple” change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design.

Decisions made in the early stages of the product development lifecycle have significant impact on the downstream activities. However, existing tools supporting decision-making and product verification at these stages are very limited. One of the obvious reasons is the lack of a common understanding between the system-level design activity and the design activities within the various participating engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a collaboration solution which we have developed and commercialized based on the model-driven development platform that allows numerous engineers from heterogeneous engineering disciplines to collaborate on the development of a complex system, such as an automobile. It helps engineers apprehend the system holistically and collectively thus make better architectural decisions. More specifically, this solution connects discipline-specific designs and simulations with the system-level requirements that trigger them in order to facilitate the integration of development efforts and to enable system-level evaluation of the design concepts early in the product development processes. Our approach provides an effective way to trace and analyze the impact of requirements and design changes, facilitates reuse of simulation artifacts for the optimization of future product designs, and supports decision-making activities at the system level. We illustrate our approach in the context of a automotive use case involving mechanical, requirement and safety engineers respectively using their own authoring environments but collectively in synch on the total system thanks to an SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) based integration between their authoring environments.

Abstract Energy producers are under tremendous pressure to abate GHG emissions earlier than previously thought. The call for action is driven by multiple factors such as climate activism, policy regulations, a global pandemic and geopolitical conflict. Hydrogen is widely considered the most important energy carrier in a decarbonized future. As organizations are revisiting their business models to evaluate the impact of a shift from fossil fuels to Hydrogen, terms such as "Energy Transition", "Carbon Management" and "Hydrogen Economy" are now making frequent appearances in business and project management plans. The global pandemic and cataclysmic geopolitical conflicts may have expedited this shift in strategies, and to some extent exacerbated capital risks faced by mega projects. As a result, a fundamental realignment in Project Management strategies seem inevitable. While managing the Energy Transition, the traditional Oil & Gas PM knowledge areas will require a "reframing" of sorts. This paper investigates the Project Management challenges and opportunities in a large, Joint Venture capital project in the Energy Transition context. The Paris Agreement, the international treaty on climate change, has intensified the discussions around low carbon energy sources. The transition to Hydrogen is sometimes envisaged to happen with cross-sectoral coupling (CO2 capture, Renewable Energy storage). Its long-term implications in terms of project complexity management, technological maturity and economic feasibility along with stakeholder influences will be reviewed. The high-level interface aspects from technology integration viewpoints and Project Human Resource Management challenges will also be addressed. Other important present-day change drivers include impacts of Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflict in Europe, which have led to watershed policy changes such as Joint European action for secure energy (REPowerEU). Rejigging Risk Management, Contract Management, Supply Chain and Stakeholder alignment strategies in the post pandemic world are key execution strategy elements for Hydrogen projects and these will be reviewed on the basis of learnings from Oil & Gas Project execution management. The fundamental changes in Gas and Oil based Capital Project Management and learnings to be harvested for Hydrogen projects will be elaborated utilizing identified critical change drivers. Project Configuration, Integration and Risk management perspectives will be analyzed from Owners’ viewpoints. Additional Critical Success Factors, Project Definition Parameters or integrated Front End Loading (iFEL), Project assurance and leadership model will be identified and elaborated. An overall execution strategy focused on new project realities beyond the realm of triple project constraints will be outlined. The strategic redefinition of Project Management functions in the context of Energy Transition and their deployment will be administered via a competent Project Management Office (PMO) function. Authors identify the PMO's leading role in Change Management, harvesting learnings and synergies, stakeholder alignment and overall strategy definition.

In Europe, the demographic profile is towards an increasingly aged workforce [1], characterized by a significant aging of the population. The people aged 55 years or more accounted for one fifth of the total workforce, and as one consequence of increasing longevity, must work more years before retirement [2].Aging of the workforce is a growing problem for many developed and developing countries, pushing companies to explore ways to keep older workers employed for a longer period of time and to support them to maintain their work ability and increase their employability. The literature shows that “age related factors should be taken into consideration in daily management, including work arrangements and individual work tasks, so that everybody, regardless of age, feels empowered in reaching their own and corporate goals” [3].At the same rhythm with these challenges related to the ageing workforce, the work itself is undergoing technological upgrading driven by digitization. ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) have radically determined the modification of people's habits and lifestyles, also in the field of work, introducing new methods of working for example the smart working. These evolving work methods required smart workers to acquire new professional skills in a short time and to adapt to new technologies, new work processes and new forms of collaboration. All these changes lead to greater difficulties, especially for aged smart workers, such as: i) lack of physical interactions and the resulting isolation; ii) increased workload and consequently increased stress (always on); iii) difficulties in communication and time management problems; iv) work-life balance and personal life problems. Therefore it emerges the need to design innovative and friendly devices to address the challenges and difficulties mentioned above, facilitating interaction between smart workers, time management and work organization. These innovative devices and systems need to be easy to use and intuitive to learn in order to increase the inclusion of the aging smart workers, reducing the digital divide.Tangible User Interfaces could represent a fertile ground with the greatest potential to tackle these challenges as they give physical form to digital information and computation, and at the same time they facilitate the direct manipulation of bits. Unlike GUIs, where human-machine interaction occurs through the use of a mouse, keyboard or touchpad and is displayed on a screen as interaction’s results, the use of TUIs involves direct interaction with physical objects to which digital information has been associated, within a defined action space.In this context, the challenge is how ICT-embedded solutions, particularly Tangible User Interfaces, can meet the needs of a growing number of ageing smart worker in terms of inclusion, and of social, physical and mental wellbeing to sustain a team spirit, maintain team cohesion by offering sensory user experience and a tactile interaction with digitized work.The general objective of the research project presented in this article is to develop ICT-embedded devices based on TUIs, aimed at aging smart workers, with following objectives:fostering communication and interaction with the digital world through a tactile experience;increasing the organization, motivation, and job satisfaction; promoting work-life balance to increase physical and mental wellbeing. The result consists of a digital devices’ system, that can interact with each other and with users through a dedicated application for mobile. The system allows to improve the smart workers experience and their well-being through:empowerment, with the introduction of a "digital personal coach" who accompanies the worker during the performance of the activities;enhancement of concentration by providing for the performance of only one activity at a time to increase the overall efficiency of the worker;work-life balance improvement, with a better management of the balance between working and private dimensions;communication and collaboration facilitation with other colleagues;reduction of technological abundance through the use of tangible interfaces;exploitation of peripheral interaction to reduce the risk of loss of concentration during activities.1.European Commission - Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs: The 2015 Ageing Report. Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies. European Economy 8-2014 (2014). 2.Giakoumis, D., Votis, K., Altsitsiadis, E., Segkouli, S., Paliokas, I., & Tzovaras, D.: Smart, personalized and adaptive ICT solutions for active, healthy and productive ageing with enhanced workability. In: 12th ACM International Conference on PErvasive Technologies Related to Assistive Environments, pp. 442-447. Association for Computing Machinery, New York (2019).3.Ilmarinen, J. (2012). Promoting active ageing in the workplace. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work.

Are international human rights treaties associated with better rights performance? The appetite for a conclusive answer has driven a number of large scale quantitative studies that have broadly shown little or no effect, and sometimes even a backsliding. However, the headline conclusions belie much more complicated findings, and the research methods used are controversial. These issues undermine confidence in the findings. Comparative and individual case studies allow for more detailed information about how domestic human rights activists use international human rights laws in practice. They tend to be more positive about the effect of treaties, but they are not as systematic as the quantitative work. Some indirect measures of treaty effect show that the norms contained within them filter down into domestic constitutions, and that the process of human rights reporting at the UN may be useful if dialogue can be considered an a priori good. It is likely that states are driven to comply with human rights obligations through a combination of dynamic influences. Drivers of compliance with international law is a major, unresolved question in the research that is heavily influenced by the worldview of researchers. The two strongest findings are: Domestic context drives compliance. In particular: (1) The strength of domestic non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and links with international NGOs (INGOs), and (2) in partial and transitioning democracies where locals have a reason to use the treaties as tools to press their claims. External enforcement may help drive compliance when: (1) other states link human rights obligations in the treaties to preferential trade agreements, and (2) INGOs ‘name and shame’ human rights violations, possibly reducing inward investment flows from companies worried about their reputation. Scholars also identify intermediate effects of continued dialogue and norm socialisation from the UN’s human rights reporting processes. Interviews with diplomats involved in UN reporting say that the process is more effective when NGOs and individual governments are involved.

A mature teacher who continuously seeks improvement should be recognised as a professional who has autonomy in conducting their job and has the autonomy to engage in a professional community of practice (Hyslop-Margison and Sears, 2010). In other words, teachers’ engagement in professional development activities should be driven by their own determination rather than extrinsic sources of motivation. In this context, teachers’ self-determination can be defined as a feeling of connectedness with their own aspirations or personal values, confidence in their ability to master new skills, and a sense of autonomy in planning their own professional development path (Stupnisky et al., 2018; Eyal and Roth, 2011; Ryan and Deci, 2000). Previous studies have shown the advantages of providing teachers with autonomy to determine personal and professional improvement. Bergmark (2020) found that giving teachers the opportunity to identify areas of improvement based on teaching experience expanded the ways they think and understand themselves as teachers and how they can improve their teaching. Teachers who plan their own improvement showed a higher level of curiosity in learning and trying out new things. Bergmark (2020) also shows that a continuous cycle of reflection and teaching improvement allows teachers to recognise that the perfect lesson does not exist. Hence, continuous reflection and improvement are needed to shape the lesson to meet various classroom contexts. Moreover, Cheon et al. (2018) found that increased teacher autonomy led to greater teaching efficacy and a greater tendency to adopt intrinsic (relative to extrinsic) instructional goals. In developed countries, teacher autonomy is present and has become part of teachers’ professional life and schools’ development plans. In Finland, for example, the government is responsible for providing resources and services that schools request, while school development and teachers’ professional learning are integrated into a day-to-day “experiment” performed collaboratively by teachers and principals (Niemi, 2015). This kind of experience gives teachers a sense of mastery and boosts their determination to continuously learn (Ryan and Deci, 2000). In low-performing countries, distributing autonomy of education quality improvement to schools and teachers negatively correlates with the countries’ education outcomes (Hanushek et al., 2011). This study also suggests that education outcome accountability and teacher capacity are necessary to ensure the provision of autonomy to improve education quality. However, to have teachers who can meet dynamic educational challenges through continuous learning, de Klerk & Barnett (2020) suggest that developing countries include programmes that could nurture teachers’ agency to learn in addition to the regular content and pedagogical-focused teacher training materials. Giving autonomy to teachers can be challenging in an environment where accountability or performance is measured by narrow considerations (teacher exam score, administrative completion, etc.). As is the case in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, teachers tend to attend training to meet performance evaluation administrative criteria rather than to address specific professional development needs (Dymoke and Harrison, 2006). Generally, the focus of the training relies on what the government believes will benefit their teaching workforce. Teacher professional development (TPD) is merely an assignment for Jakarta teachers. Most teachers attend the training only to obtain attendance certificates that can be credited towards their additional performance allowance. Consequently, those teachers will only reproduce teaching practices that they have experienced or observed from their seniors. As in other similar professional development systems, improvement in teaching quality at schools is less likely to happen (Hargreaves, 2000). Most of the trainings were led by external experts or academics who did not interact with teachers on a day-to-day basis. This approach to professional development represents a top-down mechanism where teacher training was designed independently from teaching context and therefore appears to be overly abstract, unpractical, and not useful for teachers (Timperley, 2011). Moreover, the lack of relevancy between teacher training and teaching practice leads to teachers’ low ownership of the professional development process (Bergmark, 2020). More broadly, in the Jakarta education system, especially the public school system, autonomy was never given to schools and teachers prior to establishing the new TPD system in 2021. The system employed a top-down relationship between the local education agency, teacher training centres, principals, and teachers. Professional development plans were usually motivated by a low teacher competency score or budgeted teacher professional development programme. Guided by the scores, the training centres organised training that could address knowledge areas that most of Jakarta's teachers lack. In many cases, to fulfil the quota as planned in the budget, the local education agency and the training centres would instruct principals to assign two teachers to certain training without knowing their needs. Realizing that the system was not functioning, Jakarta’s local education agency decided to create a reform that gives more autonomy toward schools and teachers in determining teacher professional development plan. The new system has been piloted since November 2021. To maintain the balance between administrative evaluation and addressing professional development needs, the new initiative highlights the key role played by head teachers or principals. This is based on assumption that principals who have the opportunity to observe teaching practice closely could help teachers reflect and develop their professionalism. (Dymoke and Harrison, 2006). As explained by the professional development case in Finland, leadership and collegial collaboration are also critical to shaping a school culture that could support the development of professional autonomy. The collective energies among teachers and the principal will also direct the teacher toward improving teaching, learning, and caring for students and parents (Hyslop-Margison and Sears, 2010; Hargreaves, 2000). Thus, the new TPD system in Jakarta adopts the feature of collegial collaboration. This is considered as imperative in Jakarta where teachers used to be controlled and join a professional development activity due to external forces. Learning autonomy did not exist within themselves. Hence, teachers need a leader who can turn the "professional development regulation" into a culture at schools. The process will shape teachers to do professional development quite autonomously (Deci et al., 2001). In this case, a controlling leadership style will hinder teachers’ autonomous motivation. Instead, principals should articulate a clear vision, consider teachers' individual needs and aspirations, inspire, and support professional development activities (Eyal and Roth, 2011). This can also be called creating a professional culture at schools (Fullan, 1996). In this Note, we aim to understand how the schools and teachers respond to the new teacher professional development system. We compare experience and motivation of different characteristics of teachers.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.