Academic literature on the topic 'Consumer goods – Evaluation'

Perceived risk is known to be an important determinant of consumer behaviour. However, prior research has focussed on goods rather than services. The purpose of this exploratory research was to identify any differences between goods and services in terms of perceived risk and risk reduction strategies. Two new components of risk, namely specification risk and the risk of loss of control, were identified as being specifically associated with services. Empirical evidence gathered leads to the conclusion that as far as risk is concerned, a simple classification of products as goods or services is inadequate: an additional hybrid class comprising both goods and services is also necessary. These three categories of product are associated with different types of perceived ask. Also, risk reduction strategies were found to be dependent on product rather than on the type of risk.

This study examined the impact of systematic performance evaluation on performance improvement among salesmen in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector in Nigeria. This is occasioned by the peculiar nature of the job of the salesman which requires that specific attention be paid to the mode of performance evaluation deployed for them and its impact on their productivity. Using Yamane formula, convenience sampling method was used to select 263 respondents from the sales team of PZ Cussons Nigeria PLC. Four hypotheses were subsequently tested using correlation test. Based on the analysis, the study found a significant influence of clear, specific and challenging goals on the performance of salesmen in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Nigeria. It was also deduced that there is no significant influence of detailed and timely feedback on the performance of salesmen in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study also revealed a significant influence of employee reward and recognition, as well as, training and development on the performance of salesmen in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommended a clear, complete and inspiring job requirement of all salesmen so that the employee can continuously improve performance. Furthermore, feedback from appraisal and evaluation should also inspire, encourage and motivate salesmen without including any form of threat and fear of job security. Finally, Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Nigeria should embark on capacity development of human resources through training and mentoring. This study therefore contributes to limited studies on performance evaluation, as well as, validation of both the conceptual and theoretical postulations in the context of Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Nigeria.

In identifying perceptions and attitudes relevant to consumer acceptance of goods originating in different countries, it would be extremely helpful for marketers to have a meaningful and consistent measure that they could apply. This study examines to what extent consumer ethnocentrism as measured by the CETSCALE singularly, as well as in concert with selected demographic and psycho-graphic variables, can predict consumers’ evaluation of domestic versus foreign produce. The findings indicate that consumer ethnocentrism is a strong and significant predictor of consumer product evaluations. Including the ethnocentrism variable in a set of demographic and psycho-graphic variables significantly improves the predictive ability of the set. Potential applications of the concept include identification of market segments that react more favourably to domestic or foreign produce, developing effective marketing communication strategies, and supporting location decisions for retail outlet sites.

Based on the theory of trust orientation and perceived risk, this study explores the impact of Taobao’s negative evaluation on consumer behaviour, and then conducts research. According to the theory of trust tendency, this paper discusses how consumers view the negative evaluation of goods. Through data analysis, it is found that consumers will have lower purchase intention when they browse negative comments. The psychological mechanism of this is that consumers are affected by perceived risks, resulting in lower brand identity. The subjects of this study are 70 Taobao users, and the hypothesis proposed is tested through correlation analysis.

In the current conditions of sharp change in demand and instability of markets, there is a need to develop a method and evaluation criterion that would meet the sustainable scenario of a supplying goods system including the consumer-driven concept. The analysis of goods distribution methods showed that to assess the integrated efficiency between the supply system and its end-consumers, it is advisable to apply integrated criterion efficiency—generalized distribution utility. The developed indicator takes into account the profit of the distribution channel (or its participants) and the generalized costs of end users during shopping activity. Based on the proposed indicator, the feasibility of using vehicle capacity is substantiated, which provides the maximum generalized distribution costs value and corresponds to the optimal sustainable distribution in consumer-driven logistics.

A psychometric scale to measure consumer perceptions of the aesthetic dimensions of consumer durable goods is developed in this dissertation. The scale contributes an approach to measuring how a consumer durable is perceived along various aesthetic dimensions of judgment, an approach to comparing alternative product designs along these dimensions, and a basis for segmenting markets based on consumer responses to aesthetic criteria. The scale development process followed here established the feasibility of a psychometric approach to measuring the perception and evaluation of the aesthetic qualities in the case of common consumer durables. Although there was evidence of reliability problems, the scale generally performed satisfactorily in terms of unidimensionality and discriminant validity. Further, it offered satisfactory discrimination among products that were a priori judged to be of different aesthetic quality. This scale represents an initial effort to calibrate consumption stimuli in terms of qualities apart from those that contribute to their functional value. It provides a way to go beyond uncalibrated consumer utterances and to circumvent the problems surrounding the comprehension of obtuse jargon used in the design literature. Although the present effort focused on consumer durables, the role of aesthetic qualities in core product design, primary and secondary packaging, and in promotional augmentation extends beyond the product categories studied.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationships between four different theoretical viewpoints – categorization, congruence, perception-of-fit, and product involvement – and their effects on consumer evaluations of brand extensions of nondurable goods and the underlying factors of how attitudes are transferred from the parent brands to its product extensions.

By using the single-step multiple mediator model by Preacher and Hayes (2008), the findings suggested, in general, that (1) a more positive effect of congruence, perception-of-fit, and product involvement between the parent brand and the product extension, the more the positive the attitude-toward-product-extension when there was an effect of the attitude-toward-parent-brand on the four intervening variables, (2) a more positive effect of categorization, congruence, and product involvement between the parent brand and the product extension, the more the positive the attitude-towardproduct- extension as a result of the direct effects of the four intervening variables on attitude-toward-product-extensions, (3) congruence and product involvement were mediators, and the results showed that the direct effect of attitude-toward-parent-brand on attitude-toward-product-extension was statistically significantly different from zero, (4) the result on the direct effect of attitude-toward-parent-brand on attitude-toward-productextension was not statistically significant at the 0.05 level, and (5) the result on the total effect of attitude-toward-parent-brand on attitude-toward-product-extension was statistically significant at the 0.05 level. Managerial implications and recommendations were addressed and suggestions were made for future research.

Thesis(M.B.A.)--University of the Witwatersrand, 1991
The research investigated the evaluation of common goods and services by white and black consumers, and to determine where similarities and dissimilarities between these two segments existed. A review of the literature on consumer behaviour, with specific reference to decision making models, and a series of in depth interviews enabled the expansion of the Zeithaml (1981) set of constructs by a factor of two. A questionnaire was developed and administered to white and black employees of well known local firms in a variety of industries. Hypothesis testing enabled validation of the expanded set of constructs, and the comparison of white and black evaluative differences, while correspondence ;analysis determined the key evaluative dimensions. Important new dimensions discovered included Convenience, Loyalty and Reception. An invaluable method of clustering was found in the /chi squared trees technique. The results indicated that black consumers are significantly less experienced in the use and evaluation of common services compared to their white counterparts. As a result of this inexperience, a much less sophisticated set of key evaluative constructs are relied upon in the decision process. Both segments appear to be /ciware of generally higher risks associated with services, but are less prone to invest effort in information gathering prior to purchase. The white segment purchases services based on their convenience, whilst the black segment faces equal inconvenience for any purchase. The most significant marketing implications drawn were firstly, the need to appreciate consumer perceptual similarities across, and differences within, goods and services categories. Secondly, marketers need very different strategies for the black segment.

碩士
國立臺北大學
企業管理學系
99
The major purpose of the study is focus on how suppliers of Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) allocate limited marketing resources in various effective channels via evaluating each channel performance, then to increase marketing share, profitability and influence on consumer. This research has been prepared through literature review and in-depth interview. Four major evaluation dimensions were identified along with sixteen subordinate evaluation dimensions to construct the hierarchy of “Key Factors of Channel Performance Evaluation in FMCG industry”. Questionnaires designed around the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were distributed to management level of FMCG industry as research subjects. 26 questionnaires were distributed to sales department, marketing department and administration department, 22 valid questionnaires were returned (response rate 85%). The findings discovered that major evaluation dimensions in descending order of importance are: “Efficiency” and “Effectiveness” are equally important, followed by “Adaptability” and “Degree of Relationship”. The top 8 important criteria of the 16 subordinate evaluation dimensions by weighted importance are: “Channel Market Share”, “Return on Investment”, “Execution on activity”, “Sales Revenue”, “Store Number/Distribution Status”, “Ability of Inventory Management”, “Consumer Satisfaction with Distributors” and “Financial Soundness”.

JEL classification: M31
The operation conditions of marketing channels, regarded as the crucial external resources of enterprises, directly influence the market position of a company. Good marketing channels are significant links for enterprises to perceive market change and adjust enterprise behavior and decisions. This thesis seeks to clarify and define various factors influencing marketing channels optimization by using fast moving consuming goods (FMCG) as the focus of the research topic and by taking Rainbow Company as an example, based on data of an actual marketing channel operation and deep research on the case company. On this basis, the concept and basic framework of marketing channel optimization of FMCG enterprises has been considered from the perspective of channel relationship selection and marketing channel integration, considering the influence of direct online marketing models on traditional marketing channels. Finally, it has put forward the implementation strategy of marketing channel optimization from three aspects, building strategic alliance of marketing channels, putting more effort in developing a network channel and in strengthening regional marketing team construction by applying relevant theories and concepts of marketing channel optimization.
As condições de operação dos canais de marketing, considerados como recursos externos essenciais das empresas, influenciam diretamente o posicionamento de uma empresa no mercado. Um bom canal de marketing constitui um elemento muito significativo para que as empresas se apercebam das mudanças ocorridas no mercado e possam ajustar os seus comportamentos e decisões em conformidade. Esta tese procura clarificar e definir os diversos fatores que influenciam a otimização dos canais de marketing a partir do estudo de caso da empresa Rainbow Company e adotando, como base de pesquisa, o caso de produtos de rápido consumo (FMCG “fast moving consumer goods”). Deste modo a tese definiu o conceito e o enquadramento básico da otimização de canais de marketing sob a perspetiva da seleção de relacionamentos e da integração, considerando a influência de modelos de marketing direto online sobre os canais de marketing tradicionais. Por fim, e tendo por base as teorias e conceitos relevantes, a tese desenvolveu uma estratégia de implementação da otimização de canais de marketing sob três perspetivas: construção de alianças estratégicas; reforço do desenvolvimento de redes; e reforço do desenvolvimento de equipas de marketing regional.

碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理研究所
87
The scope of retailing industry covers foods , clothes , housing , transportation , education , and entertainment , etc.. Since it is closely related to our daily life , the demand of retailing industry will by no means grow when the income of people increases , the life style changes and the standard of living rises. In order to enhance the response to market , the retailers have to take some actions . Internally , evaluation system needs to be established based on observed data , and the operating process has to be standardized and formalized to ensure the service quality. In the marketing segment , retailers should consider both software and hardware to establish the image of the company and reinforce the competency of the company in order to gain more market share in the violent and complicated retailing market. And the most important of all is to monitor the information of sales. Once the information of the sales is monitored , managers can effectively control the levels of inventory , place order in more economic scale and meet the variety of demand. Therefore , it is indispensable to manage the company with computerized process and utilize the sales information system. Since the sales information is one of the focus of the marketing research , managers can fully understand and learn the reaction from consumers in the different products , prices , places and promotions strategies through the collection of sales information. And based on the sales information , producers , wholesalers and retailers can effectively make decisions about production , distribution , merchandise selection and selling. Since there are more and more chain stores of supermarkets , hypermarkets , and convenience stores arised , these modern retailing mode becomes the mainstream in the retailing market. It changes not only the purchasing behavior of the consumers , but also the business strategies and operation models of the producers in the supply chain. The consumer packaged goods industry is basically the conglomerate of the related industries which focus on selling of products. Thus , collecting the sales information through different channels , the firms in consumer packaged goods industry can actually help other firms in their supply chain to get more exact and reliable information , and also improve performance in both. In Taiwan , the domestic consumer packaged goods industry is composed mostly of small and median enterprises (SMEs). Due to limited money and manpower of SMEs , they are limited from aggressively accessing the sales information and maintaining and upgrading of the MIS. They are also incapable of catching the trend of the information technology and communication. And this will make the firms lose their competency . Therefore , if most of the firms of the consumer packaged goods industry would share the sales information without weakening their core competence , the Japanese Retailer Data Service (RDS) could be adapted as a good reference to promote the idea of sharing sales information and establish the common sales information system. The common sales information system will provide useful reports of the overall market information , and to the firms who join in this system as reference points for running their business. This system will also improve the competency and operation efficiency of the whole consumer packaged goods industry. According to the passage thereinbefore , this research tries to find the factors which will affect the firms to join in or not the common sales information system , and further explore and analyze the implementation situation and performance of the common sales information system. Hopefully , this research will be able to find the attractive factors for the firms to join the common sales information system , possible operating mechanism to run the system , and evaluation criteria . The results could also be referenced for the Computer and Communication Research Laboratories (CCL) of ITRI when they promote the common sales information system to attract more firms to join the system in order to promote the idea of sales information sharing and a good business environment for competition. Based on the outcome of the statistical analysis, some factors are strongly related to the willingness of retailers to join the common sales information system. These factors are as follows : the degree of needs to cooperate with counterparts, the will of sharing the sales information with counterparts , real time information acquiring, the firms'' supporting and the collected data providing , the important report providing , most counterparts'' participating , saving on the related costs. All of the above factors are positively related to the willingness of the firms to join the common sales information system ; But , the budget on investing the information system is negatively related to the willingness of the firms to join the common sales information system. Based on the interviews with the participating firms , the applications and the possible benefits coming from the common sales information system can be summarized as follows : 1. On the viewpoint of establishing the cooperative mechanism , most of the respondents think that the common sales information system should be directed or promoted by the public legal sectors. 2. On the viewpoint of establishing the strategic information system , most of the respondents have built up this system but now mainly use it to analyze the internally produced data which they believed can be compared with the overall market information produced by the common sales information system. 3. Due to lack of mutual trust among the different tiers of supply chain , the concepts and applications of QR/ECR should be continually promoted to provide more added values for the supply chain. 4. From the applications of information technology , most of the respondents gather or transfer information by using e-mail , fax and point of sale（POS）system . They also develop marketing database to analyze the sales. Since the time that the firms joined the common sales information system is not long enough and there are only limited firms joined this system , performance produced by the common sales information system are difficult to be evaluated concretely. So the performance of the system at this stage is only based on the importance perceived by the respondents on the dimensions such as financial performance , marketing and customer service , business internal process , and the growth of staff. On the dimension of financial performance , most of the respondents emphasize more on the reduction of the logistics cost , the increase of the sales , the reduction in the inventory , the increase of the turnover rate , the increase of the profitability and the increase of the market share；on the dimension of marketing and customer service , most of the respondents emphasize more on the improvement of the level of service and quality , the reduction of the shortage rate , keeping the original customers and providing the reasonable price；on the dimension of business internal process , most of the respondents emphasize more on the reduction of the order cycle , introduction of the new products , development of the products with its own brand , the ability to analyze customers'' patterns, providing the best mix of the products , monitoring and utilizing the sales information , improving the accuracy of sales forecast , increasing the bargaining power to the suppliers , and the change on the cooperation or competition relationship among the counterparts；on the dimension of staff''s growth , most of the respondents emphasize more on that the staff can learn more the latest computer related operation and the ability to analyze the information.

As globalisation of the world's economies proceeds at a rapid pace, an area of continuous interest in international marketing is the influence of the country of origin (COO) effect on prospective purchasers of products. Although the effects of COO has been an active research area for many years, increased globalisation has resulted in a shifting of focus from a single country "made-in" concept to other aspects such as a product's design or parts locations. The components of Country-of-design (COD), Country-of-manufacture/assembly (COA) and Country-of-parts/components (COP) are meaningful because many firms increasingly outsource the product's design, assembly, and parts to different countries. However, the extent of influence of these factors is not fully understood, and it is not known whether they are applicable across all markets. The present study provides a deeper understanding of the influence of COO by examining the effects of COD, COA , and COP together with their interaction on perceptions of product quality and consumer purchase intentions in the context of home country versus foreign ones. Our study measures the effects of these components, namely, COD, COA, and COP, on consumer product evaluation and purchase intentions based on two high involvement products of automobile and digital camera using MANOVA techniques. We observe that there is no support for a direct effect of the three COO sub-components on consumer product assessment and purchase intention in the context of the China market for either product. These findings suggest that, although the effect of the various sub-components of COO on consumer evaluation of product or purchase intent may well have been significant in the past, their continuing significance is questionable in the current global market place in which hybrid products have gradually become the norm. In addition, we also examine the factors which may have a moderating effect on the three COO sub-components in the context of local and foreign sources. The results suggest that ethnocentrism and country capability plays a limited role in mediating the effects of COD, COA, and COP on product evaluation and purchase intentions. The results of this study will be of interest to COO researchers and to corporations involved in global marketing and production. In particular, our findings imply that firms may not benefit from providing consumers with detailed global sourcing information such as COD, COA and COP on the product label, nor do they need to be overly concerned with the choice of production locations by limiting them to countries with a favourable image.

碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
航運管理學系
106
In recent years, with the progress of the economic liberalization and the internationalization of the market, foreign distributors have been using joint venture and technology cooperation to impact the market management in Taiwan. The department store industry in Taiwan is faced to the situation of changing the business model and innovating product marketing strategy. The souring trend of the online selling and electronic commerce results in the reluctant transformation of many traditional retail brands. While some of them changed the operating strategy. With the consumer buying habits changing, a delicate, high quality and costly consuming is not the only way of management. Consumer demand for goods is increasingly diversified. If the manager judge the situation subjectively or intuitively, like regarding reducing the cost down and improving the operating margins as the standard, he would misjudge the market and make a wrong decision. Finally, the company will be eliminated by consumers, and quit the market silently. This research used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA is based on the concept of efficiency. The measure of relative efficiency is based on the efficiency concept of Plato’s optimal boundary, which is aimed at maximizing efficiency. The main researching target is the TWSE-listed trade department store companies. The main data resources used in this research are from the financial reports and annual reports released by Market Observation Post System in 2015 and 2016. Total assets, operating costs and operating expenses were selected as input variables, while operating income and operating net profit were selected as output variables. Then, the data were inputted to the DEA (ver2.1) system through the CCR input orientation mode. The system would count a set of optimal weights. The final result was the analyzing and the evaluating of the data. The result shows that nine companies (Shin Shin, Mercuries, Ruentex, Momo, Familymart, POYA, Nan Ren Hu, Lifestyle and Bon Fame) have the overall technical efficiency value of 1 in 2015 and 2016 consecutively. It shows that these nine companies have higher efficiency than the others studied in this research. This type of company has matured in business and technology. They can be the standards and references for other companies that do not meet the efficiency. On the other hands, five companies (Test Rite, Tonlin, Taiwan Tea Corporation, Xin Chio and Dacome) have the overall technical efficiency value less than 1 in 2015 and 2016 consecutively. It shows that they do not have the optimal scales under the circumstances of the constant returns to scales, which means their resources were not fully utilized, and they still have to improve the management. I suggest that these companies should take the efficient companies mentioned above as models, and increase operating income and operating net profit to achieve the optimal scales. These are the ways to improve the current technical efficiency, and enhance the profitability of the companies. Keywords: Data envelopment Analysis, department store, Technical efficiency

One convenient way of describing consumer behavior both off-line and online is to present the topic as a model representing the steps typical consumers go through when they acquire the goods and services they desire. These steps are Need Recognition, Information Search, Pre-purchase Alternative Evaluation, Purchase, Consumption and Post Consumption Evaluation (Blackwell, Miniard & Engel, 2001). Although not every consumer goes through every step for every purchase, this model is a useful heuristic for organizing the study of consumer behavior and serves as a way to describe online consumer behavior as well. In the Need Recognition stage consumer behavior is stimulated by needs and wants. Needs are the abstract categories that consumers require in order to survive, function and thrive. Wants are the specific objects or mechanisms that consumers learn will enable them to satisfy their needs. Consumer needs are few, universal and inborn. Wants are acquired through individual learning histories defined by the time, place and context of the consumers’ life. Consequently, wants are many, individual and varied. Each consumer is born with the same needs and learns what will satisfy those needs through the experience of being reared within a specific society, time and place. Marketers recognize that consumers have shared needs and seek to develop brands as the specific want-satisfying ways in which consumers can gratify their needs. Table 1 presents a summary of consumer needs and wants (Foxall & Goldsmith, 1997). Physiological needs derive from the fact that consumers are physiological creatures. The social needs come from the fact that consumers are social animals. Hedonic needs describe the needs consumers have for pleasurable sensations for the five senses. Experiential needs arise because consumers are saturated with feelings and emotions that they constantly seek to modify. Cognitive needs come from the curious, inquiring cerebral cortex that wants to know about its environment. Finally, consumers have egos, a sense of self-identity, they want to express, usually through symbols. Each consumer is born with these mind/body “systems” and spends much time and energy seeking to satisfy the requirements these systems impose. Products (goods, services and information) can be multidimensional (Freiden, Goldsmith, Hofacker, & Takacs, 1998). That is, consumption of a given product can simultaneously satisfy more than one need, as buying and wearing an item of clothing protects the wearer from the elements (physiological), attracts the opposite sex (social), is comfortable to the skin (hedonic), makes the wearer feel sexy (experiential) and represents the self-concept and values of the wearer (psychological). Consuming a news magazine might satisfy cognitive needs as well as psychologically symbolic ones; the reader acquires some desired information and shows that he/she is a responsible citizen. Moreover, consumers might buy many different products to satisfy the same needs, as where designer brand names are wanted for clothing, furniture, perfumes and cars to symbolize social status. This theory of motivation can be used to explain the motivations for participation in virtual communities. Belonging to a virtual community fulfills some of the social need for belonging and fellowship. Group participation can yield feelings of fun, excitement and pleasure. The community can be an important source of information that can satisfy the cognitive need to know. Membership can be used symbolically to express identity. Thus, much like the consumption of goods, services

Internet merchants are compelled to collect personal information from customers in order to deliver goods and services effectively. However, the ease with which data can be acquired and disseminated across the Web has led to many potential customers demonstrating growing concerns about disclosing personal information. This chapter analyzes the interaction between two strategies that firms can use to alter potential customers' cost/benefit evaluation and increase information disclosure: the development of initial trust and compensation. The derived hypotheses are tested by means of two experimental studies, whose findings are compared across two different consumer target groups.

Nowadays, cloud computing is becoming popular within the business environment. Cloud services is not new, but the evolution of mobility, connectivity, and computing hardware has made it interesting for the business. Cloud services provides a way to increase the capacity or add capabilities dynamically without investing in new IT infrastructure, training new personnel, or licensing new software. Focusing on the consumer product goods (CPG) market with its mainly small and medium-sized companies, we see dramatic changes from the market demands, logistic challenges and price competition. The purpose of this chapter is therefore to present the positioning of cloud services in the CPG industry and to outline an approach that enables a typical company in the CPG industry to link the current capabilities of cloud services this to a business-process-driven evaluation approach to provide a transparency for the decision towards cloud services. The result of the business process investigation underlies assumptions and inductive conclusions.

Nowadays, cloud computing is becoming popular within the business environment. Cloud services is not new, but the evolution of mobility, connectivity, and computing hardware has made it interesting for the business. Cloud services provides a way to increase the capacity or add capabilities dynamically without investing in new IT infrastructure, training new personnel, or licensing new software. Focusing on the consumer product goods (CPG) market with its mainly small and medium-sized companies, we see dramatic changes from the market demands, logistic challenges and price competition. The purpose of this chapter is therefore to present the positioning of cloud services in the CPG industry and to outline an approach that enables a typical company in the CPG industry to link the current capabilities of cloud services this to a business-process-driven evaluation approach to provide a transparency for the decision towards cloud services. The result of the business process investigation underlies assumptions and inductive conclusions.

Chinese economy is developing at an unprecedented pace. This expansion is prominent not only in the external aspect (increased export), but also internally in the increase in the demand for goods and services by common Chinese families. This demand cannot always be met by the monthly salary and therefore the need for personal credit. Because of the substantial risk involved in lending, there is need for robust and reliable credit evaluation procedures, strategies, policies, and systems. Lessons learned from the subprime mortgage crisis in U.S. are that lending can be a very risky activity that can lead to recession for a whole economy. Banks and other financial institutions in China are in need of appropriate procedures and systems should a barrier to further economic development be avoided. Besides, existing models and systems that are prevalent in the West may not fully match Chinese banking environment or the society itself. An appropriate personal credit rating methodology should take into account the differences between the Western and Chinese society and culture. There apparently does not exist such a methodology in literature that takes into consideration the unique Chinese situation. The aim of this chapter is to begin to fill this gap in knowledge by building a conceptual model of factors influencing demand for consumer credit and insolvency (bad debts) in China, based on the available methodologies used in the Western societies.

Globalization seems to have achieved ultimate penetration—the plethora of choice a consumer faces in any given product or service is only a testament to the fact. Worldwide, consumers are presented the options to choose between store brands (or generic/local brands, as they are sometimes known) and national brands. The choices consumers make are reflective of their perceptions about either brand and thus provide an insight into the perceived risks that consumers associate with store or national brands. This risk creates an uncertainty of consumer base and threatens the stability of market shares for brands. The chapter aims to study the various perceived risks consumers associate with brands across two product categories: consumer goods and hedonic goods. Consequently, solutions to change consumer perceptions or brand strategies have been provided so that brands may be able to reduce perceived risk associated with themselves and create a stable consumer base.

Corporate ethics (CE) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) have been considered as the main determinants of companies' success as well as sustainability for company's viability. Both of them potentially affects on consumer buying behavior. This study aims at exploring the basic issue on CE and CSR. In addition, this study examines whether good corporate ethics and CSR engagement of companies always lead to positive consumer response in the context of controversial tobacco's company. Data collected by distributing questionnaires to the 318 respondents. By means of structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the proposed model, it indicated that the more well-defined of corporate ethics lead to the better evaluation of CSR activities, the more well-defined of corporate ethics and the better evaluation of CSR activities lead to the good corporate reputation. In addition, the good corporate reputation leads to the higher corporate trust, and the higher corporate trust lead to the stronger consumers bonding.

A business focused on the consumer and its satisfaction is an important factor in ensuring the company's competitiveness. The process of attracting new customers always involves more money, time and energy. In order for a company to retain existing customers and gain only new ones, one of the main tasks is to know the factors that make them happy. Within the framework of this work, the authors want to study the theoretical foundations of consumer satisfaction, to understand the peculiarities of the development of consumer satisfaction using digital content creators - influencers. The use of influencers is an integral part of today's business development, enabling companies to operate successfully in a competitive environment. This study identifies factors that influence consumer satisfaction with the use of influencers to enable companies to improve their use and become more competitive. The study uses both secondary data analysis and expert interviews and consumer surveys. The study describes the situation in the field of influencer marketing use in the Baltic States. The study finds that influencers provide a higher level of consumer satisfaction. In order to achieve the goal of the research, three tasks were set: 1) to analyse theoretical basis of consumer satisfaction and the use of influencers; 2) to describe the use of influencers and their contribution to consumer satisfaction; 3) to study consumer evaluation of influencer activities. A monographic or descriptive method was used to analyse the theoretical aspects of the use of influencers, an analysis of secondary data was used to describe the situation, and a consumer survey was conducted to examine consumer perceptions of influencer activity and its contribution to consumer satisfaction.

The purpose of this research is to analyse penetration and use of mobile payments in Baltic countries and Poland in point of sale (POS) segment. Mobile payment or m-payment (MP) is referred to the transfer of money (in digital form) from one party (e.g., consumer) to another party (e.g., seller or merchant) using a mobile device. Mobile payments allows to pay for goods or services with mobile devices instead of paying with cash or physical credit cards. The statistical data helps us to know information about mobile payments growth. The article concerns analysis of mobile payment use in POS systems. The penetration of mobile payments in countries is different. Lack of scientific information and novelty of this article provided by this research include methods for multi criteria decision support by applying SAW and TOPSIS methods. In this study case we demonstrate the evaluation of mobile payment use in Lithuania with comparison with other Baltic countries and Poland. The SAW and TOPSIS methods supply the structure of decision making which can help us to evaluate the penetration of mobile payments.

This paper presents a simplified method for functional evaluation of parts and subsequent combination and elimination of parts with redundant and unnecessary functions. The method uses a simple spreadsheet-based tool that has proven to be an effective aid during design review and brainstorming sessions. Also presented is a simple method of initial assessment of manual assembly times. The assessment is performed by taking into account basic factors influencing part recognition, handling, manual assembly workspace and putting the parts together. Usefulness of both tools has been initially tested on a wide range of assembly configurations, from a variety of simple consumer goods to aerospace components. Both tools can also be presented as checklists thus having a ready-to-use cookbook appearance, which was particularly valued by manufacturing engineers making quick on-the-floor assessments.

Startups are changing consumer habits for goods and services around the world as quickly create and deliver value by solving society latent demands. In creative industry, startups are an important vector for the propagation of this movement, however, despite the vast Brazilian potential, there are several challenges related to the lack of training in management and innovation for this industry gain strength. Thus, this study aims to develop, apply and evaluate an innovation management framework based on the best practices of successful startups in the Brazilian creative industry. To this end, three macro research steps will be completed, initially the understanding of the explored context, then the first version of the product will be developed and, finally, the evaluation and improvement of the product will be carried out based on the feedbacks. As a result, it is expected to help the professionalization process of other startups and companies in this sector in Brazil, as this new economic model (creative, social and inclusive) has proved to be an exponent of economic growth and development around the world.

Medical tourism is one of the forms of tourism with dynamic development in recent years. To determine the strategic development of the area, it is necessary to determine the strengths of the destination with regard to trends and opportunities that the market offers. The aim of this paper is to identify the competitive advantages of the Czech Republic in terms of medical tourism and answer the key question whether the Czech Republic has the prerequisites for future development. The evaluation was performed on the basis of a comparison of research reports of the Czech Tourist Board (CzechTourism) with international reports evaluating the competitiveness and position of the Czech Republic, namely the country reports of the International Medical Travel Journal, Euro Health Consumer Index, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index. Furthermore, the services offered for foreign tourists were evaluated. A price comparison of selected procedures was also included. Based on the analysis, the competitive advantages of the Czech Republic were determined. The identified competitive advantages show that the Czech Republic has good potential for the development of medical tourism. Based on a comparison of the main final reports of foreign and domestic organizations, it follows that the main competitive advantages of the Czech Republic in the field of medical tourism are almost zero waiting times and low cost of quality medical procedures and quality medical care.

According to the tasks agreed within the Kyoto protocol, in terms of CO2 emissions reduction, the European Community is promoting energy saving. The introduction of energetic classification for electrical household appliances, makes consumption as a parameter of choice for consumers and thus represents a relevant tool for the promotion of energy saving. Therefore the interest in the evaluation and minimization of electric consumption for industrial appliances is also evident. The aim of the present study is to investigate alternative control solutions to improve the performance and diminish the energy consumption of an industrial chiller. This was carried out through software modeling of the system and experimental validation of the best performing solutions. Simulated trends show good agreement with experimental data and allow the definition of a suitable PID controller that performs good temperature regulation while slightly reducing energy demand. Further ameliorations were considered and preliminary results are shown both for optimal control and neural modeling of the chiller. Results obtained encourage to continue in the development of better performing regulators, also through neuro–fuzzy logic control.

Abstract The decreasing cost of implementation and increasing regulatory incentive to lower energy use have led to an increased adoption of distributed energy resources in recent years. This increased adoption has been further fueled by a surge in energy consciousness and the expansion of energy-saving products and technologies. To lower reliance on the electrical grid and fully realize the benefits of distributed energy resources, many consumers have also elected to use battery systems to store generated energy. For owners of multiple buildings, or multiple owners willing to share the operational cost, building clusters may be formed to more effectively take advantage of these distributed resources and storage systems. The implementation of these systems in existing buildings introduces the question of what makes a “good” building cluster. Furthermore, the scalable nature of distributed energy sources and storage systems create countless possibilities for system configuration. Through comparison of unique two-building clusters from a stock of five buildings with a given distributed energy resource (in this case, a solar photovoltaic panel array) and energy storage system, we develop a fundamental understanding of the underlying factors that allow building clusters to be less reliant on the utility grid and make better use of energy generation and storage systems.

In this paper, energy absorption characteristics of spiral welded gas pipeline steel are investigated under impact loading. Emphasise is given to energy consuming processes before fracture propagation in tested linepipe steel. The API X65 grade pipe was produced (by Sadid Pipe and Equipment Company) from thermo-mechanical controlled process (TMCP) coils supplied by a Korean steel mill. To measure material impact toughness, an instrumented Charpy machine was used. Experiments were conducted at room temperature on different sets of standard full size Charpy V-notched specimens taken from the pipe material, seam weld and heat affected zone. The instrumented Charpy machine was able to capture the load history in full during the fracture process of the test specimens resulting in a smooth load-time response. This eliminated the need for filtering used in similar test techniques. From the recorded test data the hammer displacement, impact velocity and fracture energy were numerically calculated. The numerical results showed good agreement between the instrumentation data and those read from dial indicator. From fracture energy plots it was found that the maximum and minimum fracture energy was associated with the pipe material and seam weld, respectively. In all test samples, a significant amount of energy was consumed in non-fracture related processes including indentation at the support anvils and at the impact point, bending of test specimen and crack initiation. From this finding, correction factors were suggested to account for considerable energy level of non-fracture related processes. This energy had been ignored apparently in conventional pipeline failure models calibrated in the past on low toughness pipe materials in which fracture initiation energy was negligible. The paper concluded with a comparison of suggested correction factors with those obtained by full-scale burst experiments on tough pipeline steels.

Background. Automated-entry consumer devices that collect and transmit patient-generated health data (PGHD) are being evaluated as potential tools to aid in the management of chronic diseases. The need exists to evaluate the evidence regarding consumer PGHD technologies, particularly for devices that have not gone through Food and Drug Administration evaluation. Purpose. To summarize the research related to automated-entry consumer health technologies that provide PGHD for the prevention or management of 11 chronic diseases. Methods. The project scope was determined through discussions with Key Informants. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (via EMBASE.com), In-Process MEDLINE and PubMed unique content (via PubMed.gov), and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for systematic reviews or controlled trials. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing studies. We assessed risk of bias and extracted data on health outcomes, surrogate outcomes, usability, sustainability, cost-effectiveness outcomes (quantifying the tradeoffs between health effects and cost), process outcomes, and other characteristics related to PGHD technologies. For isolated effects on health outcomes, we classified the results in one of four categories: (1) likely no effect, (2) unclear, (3) possible positive effect, or (4) likely positive effect. When we categorized the data as “unclear” based solely on health outcomes, we then examined and classified surrogate outcomes for that particular clinical condition. Findings. We identified 114 unique studies that met inclusion criteria. The largest number of studies addressed patients with hypertension (51 studies) and obesity (43 studies). Eighty-four trials used a single PGHD device, 23 used 2 PGHD devices, and the other 7 used 3 or more PGHD devices. Pedometers, blood pressure (BP) monitors, and scales were commonly used in the same studies. Overall, we found a “possible positive effect” of PGHD interventions on health outcomes for coronary artery disease, heart failure, and asthma. For obesity, we rated the health outcomes as unclear, and the surrogate outcomes (body mass index/weight) as likely no effect. For hypertension, we rated the health outcomes as unclear, and the surrogate outcomes (systolic BP/diastolic BP) as possible positive effect. For cardiac arrhythmias or conduction abnormalities we rated the health outcomes as unclear and the surrogate outcome (time to arrhythmia detection) as likely positive effect. The findings were “unclear” regarding PGHD interventions for diabetes prevention, sleep apnea, stroke, Parkinson’s disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Most studies did not report harms related to PGHD interventions; the relatively few harms reported were minor and transient, with event rates usually comparable to harms in the control groups. Few studies reported cost-effectiveness analyses, and only for PGHD interventions for hypertension, coronary artery disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; the findings were variable across different chronic conditions and devices. Patient adherence to PGHD interventions was highly variable across studies, but patient acceptance/satisfaction and usability was generally fair to good. However, device engineers independently evaluated consumer wearable and handheld BP monitors and considered the user experience to be poor, while their assessment of smartphone-based electrocardiogram monitors found the user experience to be good. Student volunteers involved in device usability testing of the Weight Watchers Online app found it well-designed and relatively easy to use. Implications. Multiple randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated some PGHD technologies (e.g., pedometers, scales, BP monitors), particularly for obesity and hypertension, but health outcomes were generally underreported. We found evidence suggesting a possible positive effect of PGHD interventions on health outcomes for four chronic conditions. Lack of reporting of health outcomes and insufficient statistical power to assess these outcomes were the main reasons for “unclear” ratings. The majority of studies on PGHD technologies still focus on non-health-related outcomes. Future RCTs should focus on measurement of health outcomes. Furthermore, future RCTs should be designed to isolate the effect of the PGHD intervention from other components in a multicomponent intervention.

Behavioural interventions are policies and programmes that incorporate insights from scientists who study human behaviour (such as psychology and behavioural economics), with the aim of encouraging socially desirable behaviours by removing barriers and creating incentives or disincentives (Cornago, 2021). Very few behavioural interventions for energy efficiency have been documented in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, and none in North Macedonia. The limited experience that has been documented in the region consists of a few small trials which used behavioural principles to inform households about approaches to energy conservation, but none of these trials have demonstrated a significant effect on behaviour. Behavioural interventions have been widely used elsewhere in the world, particularly in North America, Western Europe, and Australia, and there are many studies evaluating their impacts in these regions (Andor & Fels, 2018, p. 182). This report focuses primarily on household energy efficiency, and particularly on the most widespread and well-documented interventions, which are those related to providing feedback on energy consumption and labelling consumer goods. Although behavioural interventions have been shown to produce significant impacts and to be cost-effective in many situations, the available evidence has some limitations. Many examples that have been documented are small-scale trials or pilot projects; large-scale, institutionalised policy interventions based on behavioural insights are rare (Users TCP and IEA, 2020, p. 22). In many studies, experiments with small sample sizes and short durations show larger impacts than larger and longer-term studies, suggesting that pilot studies may over-estimate the savings that might be achieved by large-scale programmes (Andor & Fels, 2018, p. 182; Erhardt-Martinez et al., 2010, p. iv). The amount of energy saved by behavioural interventions is often fairly small and varies widely from one programme to another, suggesting that the effectiveness of these interventions may be highly dependent on local context and on details of design and implementation. Finally, many studies rely on participants reporting their intentions, and on hypothetical rather than actual purchasing decisions, and some studies have found a divergence between stated intentions and actual behaviour (Grünig et al., 2010, p. 41; Users TCP and IEA, 2020, pp. 75–76; Yang et al., 2015, pp. 21–22).

Background to the topic: For food safety and security reasons, hundreds of pesticides, veterinary drugs, and environmental pollutants should be monitored in the food supply, but current methods are too time-consuming, laborious, and expensive. As a result, only a tiny fraction of the food is tested for a limited number of contaminants. Original proposal objectives: Our main original goal was to develop fast, practical, and effective new approaches for the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply. We proposed to extend the QuEChERS approach to more pesticides, veterinary drugs and pollutants, further develop GC-MS and LC-MS with SMB and combine QuEChERS with GC-SMB-MS and LC-SMB-EI-MS to provide the “ultimate” approach for the analysis of hazardous chemicals in food. Major conclusions, solutions and achievements: The original QuEChERS method was validated for more than 200 pesticide residues in a variety of food crops. For the few basic pesticides for which the method gave lower recoveries, an extensive solvent suitability study was conducted, and a buffering modification was made to improve results for difficult analytes. Furthermore, evaluation of the QuEChERS approach for fatty matrices, including olives and its oil, was performed. The QuEChERS concept was also extended to acrylamide analysis in foods. Other advanced techniques to improve speed, ease, and effectiveness of chemical residue analysis were also successfully developed and/or evaluated, which include: a simple and inexpensive solvent-in-silicone-tube extraction approach for highly sensitive detection of nonpolar pesticides in GC; ruggedness testing of low-pressure GC-MS for 3-fold faster separations; optimization and extensive evaluation of analyte protectants in GC-MS; and use of prototypical commercial automated direct sample introduction devices for GC-MS. GC-MS with SMB was further developed and combined with the Varian 1200 GCMS/ MS system, resulting in a new type of GC-MS with advanced capabilities. Careful attention was given to the subject of GC-MS sensitivity and its LOD for difficult to analyze samples such as thermally labile pesticides or those with weak or no molecular ions, and record low LOD were demonstrated and discussed. The new approach of electron ionization LC-MS with SMB was developed, its key components of sample vaporization nozzle and flythrough ion source were improved and was evaluated with a range of samples, including carbamate pesticides. A new method and software based on IAA were developed and tested on a range of pesticides in agricultural matrices. This IAA method and software in combination with GC-MS and SMB provide extremely high confidence in sample identification. A new type of comprehensive GCxGC (based on flow modulation) was uniquely combined with GC-MS with SMB, and we demonstrated improved pesticide separation and identification in complex agricultural matrices using this novel approach. An improved device for aroma sample collection and introduction (SnifProbe) was further developed and favorably compared with SPME for coffee aroma sampling. Implications, both scientific and agricultural: We succeeded in achieving significant improvements in the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply, from easy sample preparation approaches, through sample analysis by advanced new types of GC-MS and LCMS techniques, all the way to improved data analysis by lowering LOD and providing greater confidence in chemical identification. As a result, the combination of the QuEChERS approach, new and superior instrumentation, and the novel monitoring methods that were developed will enable vastly reduced time and cost of analysis, increased analytical scope, and a higher monitoring rate. This provides better enforcement, an added impetus for farmers to use good agricultural practices, improved food safety and security, increased trade, and greater consumer confidence in the food supply.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.