Journal articles on the topic 'Consumer Econometric models'
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1
Zamulko, A., and O. Ishchenko. "PECULIARITIES OF USING TARIFFS FOR INTERRUPTION IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET OF UKRAINE." POWER ENGINEERING: economics, technique, ecology, no. 1 (October 11, 2021): 98–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.20535/1813-5420.1.2021.242187.
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The use of schedules to disconnect consumers from electricity to reduce the load on the UES of Ukraine is an outdated model and may not meet the standards and requirements of the new model of the electricity market in Ukraine. The study of consumer desires and needs is a very promising area in improving the efficiency of the balancing mechanism in the electricity market and is an important factor in calculating interruption tariffs. In this paper, to minimize costs due to power outages, the consumer considers the creation of a hybrid econometric approach that combines the advantages and minimizes the disadvantages of two models: the popular consumer survey model and the econometric model. An econometric model that uses the added value created by a group of consumers for the year is a practical way to estimate the cost of planned outages. The method of consumer surveys is the most popular tool for assessing reliability in the electricity market. The paper proposes to use publicly available consumer data collected through a simple survey of consumers about their actions in case of undesirable power outages, taking into account the specifics of their work. It is worth noting that this study focuses on the interruption scenario that will lead to the highest shutdown costs, it covers only winter outages in the afternoon and eliminates the effect of the difference between time of day and season.
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Karmeliuk, Hanna, Svitlana Plaskon, and Halyna Seniv. "Econometric estimation of the pension in Ukraine." Herald of Ternopil National Economic University, no. 2(84) (May 31, 2017): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774//visnyk2017.02.048.
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The research paper analyzes the dynamics of minimum and average pensions, minimum wage, living wage, consumer price index, and gross external debt of Ukraine. The causal connections between the minimum pension and the researched parameters are presented in UAH and dollar terms. The necessity of econometric modeling for studying socio-economic indicators of living standards is highlighted. The main trends of the impact of the minimum wage, the living wage, the consumer price index, the gross external debt on the minimum pension are overviewed. The predicted values of the minimum pension in Ukraine in UAH in 2017-2021 are calculated, and the confidence intervals of them with a high degree of confidence are given. The ratio of the minimum pension to the minimum wage in UAH and dollar terms is calculated. The econometric models of the dependencies of minimum pension on the minimum wage are presented in UAH and dollar terms. According to econometric models a rise of the minimum wage is accompanied by a rise of the minimum pension. The econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the subsistence minimum in UAH and dollar terms are presented. According to the models, a rise of the subsistence minimum is accompanied by an increase in the minimum pension. Also, the econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the consumer price index in UAH and dollar terms are developed. The econometric models prove that a rise of the inflation rate leads to a rise of the minimum pension. Since 2014 the growth of consumer price index has been accompanied by a rapid decline of the minimum pension in dollar terms. The econometric model which shows the dependence of the consumer price index on the minimum pension is developed in UAH and dollar terms. From the model it follows that an increase of the minimum pension results in higher inflation. The econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the gross external debt are presented in UAH and dollar terms. It is shown that by 2014, foreign loans in UAH and dollar terms were welcome in order to raise pensions which led to the rapid rise of the latter. In recent years the growth of debt in the UAH slightly affected the growth of the minimum pension in UAH, whereas the growth of debt in dollars led to a significant decline in the minimum pension in dollar terms.
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Słaba – Wiącek, Marcelina. "Checking econometric models in times of market and consumer change." VUZF Review 7, no. 2 (June 28, 2022): 127–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.38188/2534-9228.22.2.13.
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The aim of the article is to present the checking of econometric models in times of market and consumer changes. The development of the SFP balance, the budget deficit against real GDP in the years 2010-2019 and the debt forecast for the years 2021-2024 are presented here. It can be noted that different factors in different countries shape the budget balance. In 2009, the Baltic States were in the most difficult situation. The budget deficit and real GDP in Poland mean that a large part of the deficits in the economic situation is subordinated here. This shows that it is not cyclical factors that are behind it, but factors related to fiscal policy. The biggest problem was the problem in which the global financial crisis began and our deficits began to increase rapidly. The source of coverage had to be found. An additional problem was the pension reform related to OFE when we did not see it in the deficit, but we still had to incur a debt for funds transferred to OFE about PLN 20 billion per year. There was an idea to take some of these funds out of the sector. The pandemic has cast a shadow over our finances. The strategy prepared before the pandemic assumed that public debt would increase in nominal terms, but there would also be a significant decrease in relative terms to GDP. The flexibility that took place in 2015 caused that there was an expenditure expansion in Poland, and this consequently led to the appearance of the "gluttony effect". In Poland, there was a high increase in GDP, but Poles spent more, which made Poles "overeat" this increase. In addition, we are glad that we have a high GDP, and in fact it is falsified by inflation.
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Kozinova, A. T. "An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia." Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 19, no. 6 (June 29, 2020): 1133–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.19.6.1133.
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Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.
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Lazarov, Nikolai. "EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING HOUSEHOLD LENDING IN BULGARIA." Economic Thought journal 67, no. 2 (June 23, 2022): 221–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.56497/etj2267205.
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Consumer and housing lending are an expression of one of the significant functions of Bulgaria's banking system. The development of housing and consumer lending has a magnitude in several societal systems, making any changes related to household lending of significant interest to society, government authorities and regulators. The object of the study is bank housing and consumer lending. The aim is to identify and assess the factors influencing household lending. In this regard, a critical analysis of the econometric models used to estimate and identify the factors in the area of household lending is carried out. The time horizon of the historical data of the econometric analysis is the period 2004-2020, covering an entire economic cycle.
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Athey, Susan, and Guido W. Imbens. "Machine Learning Methods That Economists Should Know About." Annual Review of Economics 11, no. 1 (August 2, 2019): 685–725. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053433.
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We discuss the relevance of the recent machine learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods, and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the ML literature that we view as important for empirical researchers in economics. These include supervised learning methods for regression and classification, unsupervised learning methods, and matrix completion methods. Finally, we highlight newly developed methods at the intersection of ML and econometrics that typically perform better than either off-the-shelf ML or more traditional econometric methods when applied to particular classes of problems, including causal inference for average treatment effects, optimal policy estimation, and estimation of the counterfactual effect of price changes in consumer choice models.
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Fan, Chaozhi, Siong Hook Law, Saifuzzaman Ibrahim, and N. A. M. Naseem. "Research on the Correlation between Information and Communication Technology Development and Consumer Spending Based on Artificial Intelligence and Time Series Econometric Model." Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering 2022 (June 13, 2022): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1645232.
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In order to explore the correlation between ICT development and consumer spending, this paper uses artificial intelligence and time series econometric models to study the correlation between ICT development and consumer spending. Moreover, this paper organically combines the advantages of wavelet analysis and hidden Markov model to construct a wavelet domain hidden Markov chain model. It is used to examine the flow of information on different scales related to the development of communication technology and consumer spending, so as to infer the potential mechanism of the interaction of different traders’ behaviors from the other side. Through cluster analysis, it can be seen that the correlation analysis method of information and communication technology development and consumption expenditure based on artificial intelligence and time series econometric model proposed in this paper has certain reliability. At the same time, there is a strong correlation between the development of communication technology and consumer spending.
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Yang, Jing, Rathindra Sarathy, and Stephen M. Walsh. "Do review valence and review volume impact consumers’ purchase decisions as assumed?" Nankai Business Review International 7, no. 2 (June 6, 2016): 231–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/nbri-11-2015-0028.
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Purpose To explore the psychological mechanism through which consumer reviews affect people’s purchasing decisions and behavior, this study aims to examine the impact of statistical evidence embedded in product reviews on consumers’ perceptions and purchasing intentions. Design/methodology/approach The effects review valence and review volume are tested using a 3 (valence: positive vs neutral vs negative) × 2 (volume: high vs low) quasi-experimental design and online questionnaires. Findings The study finds that review valence has a stronger impact on consumers’ perceptions than review volume does. Negative reviews induce higher risk perception and a less favorable attitude toward purchases compared to positive reviews. In addition, although both attitude toward purchase and subjective norm are good antecedents of purchase intention, the attitude statistically has a stronger impact than the subjective norm. Research limitations/implications This study contributes to extant literature from three perspectives. The authors have reexamined the findings of econometric models and advanced their implications by explaining the related psychological changes in people’s perceptions. Second, the authors have extended the application of the theory of reasoned action and found it to be a good fit in explaining consumers’ behavior related to consumer reviews. And finally, the authors have provided a clear guideline on the magnitude of the effects of review valence and volume on consumers’ perceptions. Originality/value This study provides a good complement to econometric studies from both theoretical and practical perspectives. It bridges the gap between exploratory studies and behavioral studies in the field of consumer reviews.
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Lewbel, Arthur. "Demand Systems With and Without Errors." American Economic Review 91, no. 3 (June 1, 2001): 611–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.3.611.
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Revealed preference theory assumes that each consumer has demands that are rational, meaning that they arise from the maximization of his or her own utility function. In contrast, econometric or statistical demand models assume that each consumer's demands equal a rational systematic component derived from a common utility function, plus an individual-specific, additive error term. This paper reconciles these differences, by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for rationality of statistical demand models given individual consumer rationality. (JEL D11, D12, C30, C43)
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Nevezhin, Victor P. "STUDY OF MODELS WITH FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FORMATION OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF REGIONS." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 4/1, no. 124 (2022): 139–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2022.04.01.015.
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The article presents the result of a study of a number of economic factors that influence the formation of investment attractiveness of Russian regions. Approaches to the formation of these factors and their content are given. A number of econometric models describing the volume of investments in fixed assets in the Central, North-Western and Southern Federal Districts are considered. The factors that can significantly affect the investment attractiveness of the region are highlighted, some of them are investigated. Hypotheses are put forward about the importance of economic, social and consumer quantitative factors. The study of econometric models: linear, polynomial, power, hyperbolic and exponential. The results allow us to use them to form a forecast of the investment attractiveness of the region.
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Newey, Whitney K. "Kernel Estimation of Partial Means and a General Variance Estimator." Econometric Theory 10, no. 2 (June 1994): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600008409.
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Econometric applications of kernel estimators are proliferating, suggesting the need for convenient variance estimates and conditions for asymptotic normality. This paper develops a general “delta-method” variance estimator for functionals of kernel estimators. Also, regularity conditions for asymptotic normality are given, along with a guide to verify them for particular estimators. The general results are applied to partial means, which are averages of kernel estimators over some of their arguments with other arguments held fixed. Partial means have econometric applications, such as consumer surplus estimation, and are useful for estimation of additive nonparametric models.
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Nojkovic, Aleksandra. "Qualitative response models: A survey of methodology and illustrative applications." Ekonomski anali 52, no. 172 (2007): 55–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka0772055n.
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This paper introduces econometric modeling with discrete (categorical) dependent variables. Such models, commonly referred to as qualitative response (QR) models, have become a standard tool of microeconometric analysis. Microeconometric research represents empirical analysis of microdata, i.e. economic information about individuals, households and firms. Microeconometrics has been most widely adopted in various fields, such as labour economics, consumer behavior, or economy of transport. The latest research shows that this methodology can also be successfully transferred to macroeconomic context and applied to time series and panel data analysis in a wider scope. .
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Anysiadou, Melpomeni. "Exploring Attitude toward Virtual Bank Cards Using Nudge Theory and Experimental Analysis." Business and Economic Research 13, no. 1 (January 27, 2023): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v13i1.20703.
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Purpose: The study aimed to investigate Greek consumers' attitudes and actual behavior toward virtual bank cards and to show whether Experimental Economics can incentivize these banking products.Methodology: For data collection, a specially designed experiment was conducted among Greek consumer samples according to Experimental Economics and Nudging Theory principles. Econometric analysis was conducted through Multi-level Models and Bivariate statistical tests.Results: Results suggest that demographic characteristics such as age combined with personalization and consumer risk perception play an important role in virtual bank card adoption. The youngest consumers are optimistic about their use, while the oldest are negative. Furthermore, Experimental Economics and Nudging Theory could identify behavioral changes.Novelty: The study's novelty and uniqueness are based on investigating Greek consumers' attitudes and behavior towards new and innovative banking products, which still need to be well known. The research methodology is also a groundbreaking feature of the study, as Experimental Economics is the most appropriate method to study human behavior and its unconscious influencing factors that cannot be studied in other ways.
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Lozada, Gabriel A. "A Critique of Antitrust Econometrics: Aggregation, the Representative Consumer, and the Broader Concerns of the New Brandeis School." Antitrust Bulletin 67, no. 1 (January 26, 2022): 69–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0003603x211067829.
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Some economists argue antitrust policy should be based on empirical methods used by the Industrial Organization subdiscipline of economics, but those methods contain assumptions that noneconomists should recognize. Those assumptions underlie econometric “identification,” and underlie treating aggregate demand as if it were generated by a representative consumer (Muellbauer’s “generalized linear” preferences). We explain aggregation bias in Almost Ideal Demand System models, then show that data limitations make it even harder to justify economists’ restricting aggregate demands as one would the demand of one individual. Such problems notwithstanding, the main problem with antitrust econometrics may be that there is not enough of it. Whether firms maximize profit is understudied empirically; many may maximize return on assets instead, leading to firms with assets and employees below their profit-maximizing level. There is insufficient empirical study of this and many other topics of concern to New Brandeisians.
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FRANCO, Ray John Gabriel, and Dennis S. MAPA. "ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH. A MIXED FREQUENCY MODEL APPROACH." Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields 5, no. 2 (December 31, 2014): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v5.2(10).01.
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Frequency mismatch has been a problem in time series econometrics. Many monthly economic and financial indicators are normally aggregated to match quarterly macroeconomic series such as Gross Domestic Product when performing econometric analysis. However, temporal aggregation, although widely accepted, is prone to information loss. To address this issue, mixed frequency modelling is employed by using state space models with time-varying parameters. Quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP estimates are treated as monthly series with missing observation. Using Kalman filter algorithm, state space models are estimated with eleven monthly economic indicators as explanatory variables. A one-step-ahead forecast for GDP growth rates is generated and as more indicators are included in the model, the predicted values became closer to the actual data. Further evaluation revealed that among the group competing models, using Consumer Price Index (CPI), growth rates of Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), Exchange Rate, Real Money Supply, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Merchandise Exports are the more important determinants of GDP growth and generated the most desirable forecasts (lower forecast errors).
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Osmani, Myslym, Ilir Tomorri, and Adelida Osmani Ergen. "Willingness to Pay a Premium for Safer Fresh Tomato: The Case of Urban Consumers in Tirana, Albania." Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 10, no. 2 (March 5, 2021): 54. http://dx.doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2021-0038.
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The objective of this study is the consumer’s willingness to pay a premium price (WTP) for greater safety of fresh tomatoes and the factors that determine it, in the city of Tirana, Albania. Primary data are used for over 800 individuals collected through a special face-to-face survey. Econometric methods, such as multivariate regression model and multinomial logistic models have been used. Tomato consumers are willing to pay an average premium of around 16% over the current price. Among the most important factors identified as positively affecting WTP are the level of perceived safety risk of the consumer, the frequency of adverse health events in the past, the level of risk intolerance, consumer concern about food safety, and consumer knowledge about food safety. Household income and its size are two other factors that positively impact WTP, while consumer perceptions of the farmer's ability to produce healthy tomatoes have a negative effect on expected WTP. The religious affiliation of the consumer turns out to be a determinant of WTP. Demographic and cultural characteristics, such as gender, age, and educational background do not seem to affect WTP for safer fresh tomato. Finally, some political implications are discussed.
Received: 30 October 2020 / Accepted: 03 January 2021 / Published: 5 March 2021
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Caetano, Rafaela Maiara, and Cleomar Gomes Da Silva. "Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil." Brazilian Keynesian Review 5, no. 1 (September 21, 2019): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v5i1.165.
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<p>The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of consumer confidence in Brazil and possible impacts on monetary policy actions. The econometric methodology applied is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, particularly the Bounds Testing (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data between January 2003 and December 2016, the empirical results suggest that there is a long run relationship between consumer confidence and the other variables analyzed. As for short-run dynamics, the error correction mechanism varies between 1.9% and 8.7%, depending on the estimated model. This suggests that economic variables influence consumer confidence, and when there is a break in confidence, its recovery is very slow.</p>
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Cuadras-Morató, Xavier, and Josep Maria Raya. "Boycott or Buycott?: Internal Politics and Consumer Choices." B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 16, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 185–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2014-0111.
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Abstract Does politics affect economic relations? In particular, do political tensions significantly affect consumer choices? The main objective of the paper is to study the consequences of political conflicts between Spain and Catalonia (a region of Spain) and the subsequent boycott calls on sales of Catalan sparkling wine (cava) in the Spanish market. We use data from sales of sparkling wine in supermarkets and similar outlets. To determine with precision the boycott period we use data on the number of news on the issue that appeared in the main national Spanish daily newspapers. The results of our econometric analysis indicate that the boycott calls triggered different consumers’ reactions in different territories. While consumers in some Spanish regions followed them and reduced their purchases of Catalan cava, there was also an anti-boycott reaction of Catalan consumers which led them to increase their consumption of the product. As a consequence of this, the boycott calls had an insignificant impact at the Spanish aggregate level. These results can be rationalized by the predictions of theoretical models of boycotts that include both the free riding and animosity motives.
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Yamaka, Woraphon, and Sukrit Thongkairat. "A Mixed Copula-Based Vector Autoregressive Model for Econometric Analysis." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 28, Supp01 (August 28, 2020): 113–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488520400103.
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In many practical applications, the dynamics of different quantities is reasonably well described by linear equations. In economics, such linear dynamical models are known as vector autoregressive (VAR) models. These linear models are, however, only approximate. The deviations of the actual value of each quantity from the predictions of the linear model are usually well described by normal or Student-t distributions. To complete the description of the joint distribution of all these deviations, we need to supplement these marginal distributions with the information about the corresponding copula. To describe this dependence, in the past, researchers followed the usual idea of trying copulas from several standard families: Gaussian, Student, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, and Joe families. To get a better description, we propose to also use convex combinations of copulas from different families; such convex combinations are known as mixed copulas. On the example of the dynamics of US macroeconomic data, including GDP, unemployment, consumer price index, and the real effective exchange rate, we show that mixed copulas indeed lead to a better description of the actual data. Specifically, it turns out that the best description is obtained if we use a convex combination of Student and Frank copulas.
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Griffiths, W. E. "Estimating consumer surplus comments on "using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference development and communication"." Econometric Reviews 18, no. 1 (January 1999): 75–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474939908800429.
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Basmann, Robert L. "A Theory of Serial Correlation of Stochastic Taste Changers in Direct Utility Functions." Econometric Theory 1, no. 2 (August 1985): 192–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600011130.
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Methods of maximum-likelihood search (eg., Hildreth-Lu) for single equations models with autocorrelated disturbances are not easily extended to the multi-equation systems encountered in econometric studies of consumer demand. The obstacle is the large dimension of the space of independent serial correlation coefficients to be partitioned and searched. This paper treats stochastic disturbance vectors in demand/expenditure systems as functions of random disturbances in consumer utility functions. It specifies marginal utilities to be products of a systematic function and a nonnegative random disturbance. Under this specification, three hypotheses that readily come to mind in the context of consumer theory drastically reduce the number of independent elements of serial covariance matrices. This in turn makes practicable the extension of maximum-likelihood search methods in the estimation of parameters of large demand systems.
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Lautman, Martin R., and Koen Pauwels. "Identifying Metrics That Matter: What Are the Real Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) That Drive Consumer Behavior?" GfK Marketing Intelligence Review 5, no. 2 (November 1, 2013): 46–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/gfkmir-2014-0017.
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Abstract Vector auto regression (VAR) is a form of econometric modeling that is receiving increased attention in marketing research applications. It is used to observe whether potentially relevant indicators have a real impact on sales or success factors. Compared with correlation, regression and conjoint techniques, VAR models are superior because they are able to show the impact of changes over time on the basis of real business data. The research shows how VAR models are applied in different marketing settings. VAR models can filter relevant metrics from a whole set of potentially relevant performance indicators and quantify the sales impact of each variable. They further observe lead and lag effects that cannot be tracked when measurement is conducted at a single point in time. Modeling can be performed on competitive brands as well. VAR models also make it possible to test whether the same success factors that drive a category also drive the sales of each of the brands in that category.
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Kazmi, Aqdas Ali. "An Econometric Estimation of Tax-discounting in Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 34, no. 4III (December 1, 1995): 1067–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v34i4iiipp.1067-1077.
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The debt neutrality hypothesis which has been a source of major controversies in the theory of public finance, and macroeconomics has at the same time generated a vast literature on the implications of budgetary deficits and public debt on various subsectors/ variables of the economy, such as inflation, interest rates, current account deficit, etc. Tax discounting has been one of the fields of research associated with debt neutrality. The econometric estimation of some of the standard models of taxdiscounting has shown that consumer response to fiscal policy in Pakistan reflects neither the extreme Barro-like rational anticipation of future tax liabilities nor the Buchanan-type extreme fiscal myopia. It broadly follows a middle path between these extremes. The controversy relating to debt neutrality is quite old in economic theory. However, due to its serious and far-reaching implications for the formulation of fiscal policy and macroeconomic management, the issues of debt neutrality have assumed a foremost position in economic theoretisation and empirical testing. This controversy is based on two important questions: (a) Who bears the burden of the debt? (b) Should debt be used to finance public expenditure? The first question centres on whether the debt can be shifted forward in time, while the second question explores whether taxation is equivalent to debt in its effects on the national economy.
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Bellaqa, Bashkim. "Labour Market Dynamics and Labour Market Policies – Case Study Kosovo." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 14, no. 22 (August 31, 2018): 290. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n22p290.
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Over the last decades, in Kosovo and in many Western Balkan countries, there have been processes of political, economic and social transformations. The object of this study was to analyse the linear trends, employment and unemployment correlation through Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and its growth, Consumer Prices Index (CPI), Import and the role of employment policies in Kosovo. The methods used for this study were: linear econometric models, correlation, comparative methods ect. Although there have been improvements in socio-economic indicators in Kosovo, the economy still has a higher unemployment rate compared to the countries of the region. The approach of linear relationships for econometric models is usually preferred to research the socio-economic situation and dynamics of labour market trends. Labour market analysis is a measurement unit and assesses the economic forces and demographics such as education and trainings on the one hand and employment on the other. According to the results conducted from the quantitative study, it turns out that the employment variable in Kosovo has a complex relationship with a set of other parameters where GDP and GDP change carries the main weight, etc.
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Bonnet, Céline, and Jan Philip Schain. "AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MERGERS: EFFICIENCY GAINS AND IMPACT ON CONSUMER PRICES." Journal of Competition Law & Economics 16, no. 1 (March 2020): 1–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/joclec/nhaa001.
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Abstract In this article, we extend the literature on merger simulation models by incorporating its potential synergy gains into structural econometric analysis. We present an integrated approach. We estimate a structural demand and supply model dealing with two-part tariff contracts between manufacturers and retailers as in Bonnet and Dubois (2010). This model allows us to recover the marginal cost of each differentiated product. Then we estimate potential efficiency gains using the data envelopment analysis approach of Bogetoft and Wang (2005), and some assumptions about exogenous cost shifters. In the last step, we simulate the new price equilibrium post-merger by taking into account synergy gains, and derive price and welfare effects. We use a home scan data set of dairy dessert purchases in France, and show that synergy gains could offset the upward pressure on prices post. Moreover, in this market, the increase in industry profit due to the merger is more driven by its induced synergy gains than by the market power increase.
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Angelopoulos, Michail, and Yannis Pollalis. "Data Analytics to Improve Customer Energy Efficiency." Archives of Business Research 9, no. 6 (June 11, 2021): 13–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.14738/abr.96.10290.
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This research focuses on providing insights for a solution for collecting, storing, analyzing and visualizing data from customer energy consumption patterns. The data analysis part of our research provides the models for knowledge discovery that can be used to improve energy efficiency at both producer and consumer ends.
Τhe study sets a new analytical framework for assessing the role of behavioral knowledge in energy efficiency using a wide range of Case Studies, Experiments, Research, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in combination with the most modern econometric methods and large analytical data taking into account the characteristics of the study participants (household energy customers).
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Zaród, Jadwiga. "Czynniki kształtujące ceny wybranych produktów rolno żywnościowych." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 17(32), no. 3 (September 30, 2017): 298–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2017.17.3.75.
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Price differences significantly shape trade and affect consumer behavior. Change in prices of agricultural products imply changes in food prices. Factors shaping the prices of agri-food products can divide into structural factors (for example: area of crops, consumption, import, export) and cyclical factors (for example: extreme weather events, exchange rates). The purpose of this article is to study the influence of supply and demand factors on the purchase prices of selected products on the EU and Polish markets. The main research methods are the econometric causal-effect models. In addition, trend models will allow to determine the direction of development for the prices of analyzed agri-food products. OECD, FAO and EUROSTAT data were used to this study. The results show the relationship between the purchase price of agri-food products and supply and demand factors and allow comparison of these prices in Poland and in the EU. Trend models have helped to set price forecasts for the next two years.
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Zhou, Rui. "Sustainable Economic Development, Digital Payment, and Consumer Demand: Evidence from China." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 14 (July 20, 2022): 8819. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148819.
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In this era, the global COVID-19 pandemic has hit the economy hard. In the context of great challenges to sustainable economic development, it is of great practical significance to study how digital payment can promote consumer demand and sustainable economic development. From the perspective of sustainable economic development, this paper selects panel data of various provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 to test the correlation between digital payment and consumer demand by constructing econometric models and selecting relevant indicators, so as to reveal the impact of digital payment on consumer demand and sustainable economic development. Research shows that: (1) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, digital payments play a special and very important role in promoting household consumption and sustainable economic development; (2) the empirical results show that digital payment has a significant positive impact on consumer demand, which indicates that digital payment has an obvious promotion effect on consumer demand; (3) further research shows that the impact of digital payment on consumer demand has obvious heterogeneity. From the perspective of regional differences, digital payment has a significant positive impact on consumer demand in the eastern and western regions, while the impact is not obvious in the northeast and central regions, even though it also has a positive impact. From the perspective of urban-rural differences, digital payment has a significant impact on consumer demand in both urban and rural areas, and this impact is greater in rural areas than in urban areas. However, from the perspective of development stage, the stage characteristics of digital payment’s impact on consumer demand in each region are not obvious, which may be caused by the short sample range. In addition, this paper also puts forward relevant suggestions for other countries to learn from.
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Hamlin, Robert P. "The consumer testing of food package graphic design." British Food Journal 118, no. 2 (February 1, 2016): 379–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/bfj-03-2015-0105.
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Purpose – This purpose of this paper is to present a technique for measuring the impact of package graphic designs on consumer choice and purchase intentions. The technique allows several proposed graphic designs for the same product to be compared, both with one another and with their immediate competitors up to a maximum of eight designs. Design/methodology/approach – The approach is based upon a fractionally replicated Latin square design with two sets of four package graphic designs and five consumer groups as the independent variables. The dependent variable is consumer choice. Findings – Three fully worked examples of the test are presented. The results show that graphic design has a massive and statistically significant impact on consumer choice, ceteris paribus. The test is able to discriminate strongly between package graphic designs that only apparently differ in detail. Research limitations/implications – The results show that graphic design has a significant impact upon consumer choice, but it also shows that this impact is highly product and situation specific. This may have considerable implications for any claimed wider “empirical generalisations” relating to the impact of graphic designs, or components thereof, on food consumer choice. Practical implications – The methodology presented allows graphic designs to be tested before they enter the marketplace. It replaces opinion with a reliable and quantifiable output that can be easily interfaced with econometric and market share models that have been developed within the choice modelling literature. Originality/value – This appears to be the first paper to appear within the literature that presents a reliable, simple and easily administered test that is capable of quantifying the performance of alternative graphic designs on food packaging.
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Romanyuk, Kirill. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the US Credit Default Swap Market." Complexity 2021 (November 30, 2021): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/1656448.
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The COVID-19 pandemic affected the US economy at different levels. Since credit default swaps can be viewed as a default probability indicator, the article shows the credit default swap market perspective on how the US economy was hit by the pandemic. Forecasting models are built to estimate the predictability of the CDS market sectors during the pandemic, i.e., manufacturing, energy, banks, consumer goods, and services and financial sector excluding banks. Econometric tests are applied to check the uniqueness of credit default swap market sectors after the declaration of the pandemic. The results indicate that the financial sector excluding banks performed uniquely during the pandemic; i.e., the predictability of this sector dropped significantly, and the Chow breakpoint test and Wald coefficient test can identify the shift in the data after declaration of the pandemic.
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Işığıçok, Erkan, Ramazan Öz, and Savaş Tarkun. "Forecasting and Technical Comparison of Inflation in Turkey With Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models and the Artificial Neural Network." International Journal of Energy Optimization and Engineering 9, no. 4 (October 2020): 84–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijeoe.2020100106.
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Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.
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Gibbard, Peter. "A Model of Search with Two Stages of Information Acquisition and Additive Learning." Management Science 68, no. 2 (February 2022): 1212–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4150.
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This paper presents a model of choice with two stages of information acquisition. In this model, the choice problem can be interpreted as a variant of a more general multiarmed bandit problem. We assume that information acquisition takes a simple “additive form”—the value of an alternative is the sum of two components, which the decision maker can learn by undertaking two stages of information acquisition. This assumption yields a model that is tractable for the purposes of structural estimation. One possible application of the model is to online purchasing on e-commerce sites. For a consumer on an e-commerce website, there are potentially two stages of information acquisition: the consumer can obtain information about an alternative from (i) browsing the search results page and (ii) clicking on the alternative. By way of contrast, in much of the literature on structural econometric models of online purchasing, there is typically only one stage of information acquisition. Our paper may, therefore, provide a more realistic theory for modeling search, at least for those types of search—such as online purchasing—that involve two stages of information acquisition. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, behavioral economics and decision analysis.
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Hategan, Camelia-Daniela, Ruxandra-Ioana Pitorac, Vasile-Petru Hategan, and Carmen Mihaela Imbrescu. "Opportunities and Challenges of Companies from the Romanian E-Commerce Market for Sustainable Competitiveness." Sustainability 13, no. 23 (December 2, 2021): 13358. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132313358.
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Consumer behavior differs from country to country, which may implicitly influence the financial performance of e-commerce companies. The paper’s objective is to study the characteristics of the companies from the Romanian e-commerce market for sustainable competitiveness. The empirical analysis was a quantitative and qualitative one. For the qualitative analysis of the studied sample, variables that represent the specific characteristics of companies were taken into account, the most relevant of which will be included as control variables in econometric models. Research results highlight that the recognized companies registered lower values of financial performance, they influence each other and for the company to improve the customer relationship, they have to invest in brand consolidation. The practical implications can be for managers to focus on companies’ branding, improving customer relations, disclosing more information about the company, the products they sell online, and sustainability actions to have sustainable competitiveness.
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Kübler, Raoul, and Koen Pauwels. "Metrics Gone Wrong: What Managers Can Learn from the 2016 US Presidential Election." NIM Marketing Intelligence Review 13, no. 1 (May 1, 2021): 30–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/nimmir-2021-0005.
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Abstract In the 2016 presidential election, the vast majority of available polls showed a comfortable lead for Hillary Clinton throughout the whole race, but in the end, she lost. Campaign managers could have known better, if they had had a closer look at other data sources and variables that – like polls – show voter engagement and preferences. In the political arena, donations, media coverage, social media followership, engagement and sentiment may similarly indicate how well a candidate is doing, and most of these variables are available for free. Validating the bigger picture with alternative data sources is not limited to politics. The latest marketing research shows that online-consumer-behavior metrics can enrich, and sometimes replace, traditional funnel metrics. Trusting a single ‘silver bullet’ metric does not just lead to surprises, it can also mislead managerial decision-making. Econometric models can help disentangle a complex web of dynamic interactions and show immediate and lagged effects of marketing or political events.
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Erfanian, Elham, and Alan R. Collins. "Charges for Water and Access: What Explains the Differences Among West Virginian Municipalities?" Water Economics and Policy 04, no. 04 (October 2018): 1850017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2382624x18500170.
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Examining both spatial and non-spatial econometric analyses with a dataset of 125 municipal water utilities, we investigate utility cost and community factors that explain variation in residential user charges and monthly access charges for water. The results of water charges model are consistent with the theory of water cost determination as water source, debt, and economies of size plus scale influence residential consumer charges for water. Both models (water charges and minimum monthly access) displayed positive spillover effects, although the only variable in either model with a significant indirect effect is water charges on minimum monthly access charges. Based upon model results, ground water use by utilities lowers water charges and is estimated to save residential customers in West Virginia over $3.6 million annually. West Virginia households typically pay far below the OECD standard of 3 to 5% of household income for municipal water, which may explain why socioeconomic factors do not influence minimum monthly charges for access.
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Mgadmi, Nidhal, Azza Béjaoui, Wajdi Moussa, and Tarek Sadraoui. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Cryptocurrency Market." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 69, no. 3 (September 12, 2022): 343–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2022-0014.
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The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Dinca, Gheorghita, Marius Sorin Dinca, and Catalina Popione. "Analyzing Fiscal Balance Evolution for Developed and Emerging Countries." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 63, no. 3 (2016): 299–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2016-0123.
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The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Wieland, Thomas. "Spatial Shopping Behavior in a Multi-Channel Environment: A Discrete Choice Model Approach." REGION 8, no. 2 (August 4, 2021): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.18335/region.v8i2.361.
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Spatial impacts of online shopping are discussed frequently in retail geography. Here, online shopping is mostly regarded as a central driver of competition for physical retailing and its locations, such as town centers or malls. Due to its high popularity, cross-channel shopping is sometimes considered to be a support for physical retailing. However, traditional retail location theory does not consider shopping channels other than in-store shopping. Furthermore, although online shopping is far too important to be neglected in examining consumer spatial shopping behavior, there is an obvious lack in the previous literature towards incorporating multi- and cross-channel shopping into store choice models. The present study aims to identify the main drivers of store choice on the basis that both in-store and online shopping alternatives are available, as well as the opportunity for cross-channel shopping. Taking into account previous literature on both physical store choice and multi-channel shopping, hypotheses on the impact of different shopping transaction costs (such as travel time, delivery charges, or uncertainty with respect to the stores' assortment) were derived. Based on a representative consumer survey, real past shopping decisions in three retail sectors (groceries, consumer electronics [CE], and furniture) were collected. The econometric analysis of empirical store choices was performed using a nested logit model which includes both physical and online stores. The results confirm several assumptions of classical retail location theory as well as previous findings from single-firm studies and stated choice experiments on multi-channel shopping behavior. Travel time to physical stores reduces consumer utility and store choice probability, respectively. Consumer sensitivity towards travel time decreases with decreasing purchase frequency of the desired goods. Delivery charges also decrease the likelihood of choosing a store. The impact of cross-channel integration on store choice (assuming the reduction of consumer transaction costs) is considerably lower than expected and differs between retail sectors. While furniture retailers profit from enabling cross-channel shopping, there is no such competitive advantage found for grocery and CE retailers. The positive effect of assortment on condition of diminishing marginal utility is confirmed for grocery stores and CE stores, but not for furniture stores. From a theoretical perspective, this study shows that multi- and cross-channel shopping behavior does not contradict the main thoughts of classical retail location theory. From a practical perspective, the study is a contribution as store choice models play a significant role in both business location planning and governmental land use planning.
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Santana, Lorena Figueira de, Thiago Manoel Sozinho, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da Silva, José Roberto Frega, Lauro Brito de Almeida, and Jaqueline Valerius. "Analysis of Seasonal Behavior, Cycle Occurrences and Price Trends of Brazil nut Products Exported from Brazil." Journal of Agricultural Science 10, no. 5 (April 11, 2018): 220. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v10n5p220.
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The exploitation of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) represent a way of subsistence for Amazon extractive communities, which demonstrate great recognition of its importance to income generation, notably in rural areas. This paper aims to identify and analyze the existence of seasonal behavior, cycle occurrence and price tendency upon Brazil nuts products (Bertholletia excelsa H.B.K.) exported by Brazil to international market during 2005 to 2015. Products quantity and price database were collected from Foreign Trade Information Analysis System (AliceWeb) and used as proxy to estimate its unit price in US$/kg. Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), using as reference base December 2015, the analysis consisted on applying the Mobile Geometric Mean (MGM) and the ARIMA econometric models. The evaluation of cycles and tendency were realized by graphic analysis of the stationary indexes, visual identification of structural series breaks and plotting reference value to analyze the occurrence of increase or decrease price. Because of the models application a seasonal price behavior was observed for both Brazil nuts products analyzed, shelled and in shell. Although the tendency of price growth was verified for both, the in shell products presented short term annual cycles, while for the shelled product only three long term cycles with distinct intervals were noticed.
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Chouayet, Wael, and Anthony Rezitis. "Price Transmission along the European Food Supply Chain in Selected Northern-Southern Countries." International Journal of Food and Beverage Manufacturing and Business Models 1, no. 2 (July 2016): 31–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijfbmbm.2016070103.
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This study intends to estimate the different characteristics of price transmission and aims to test the hypothesis of price transmission asymmetry based on agricultural, processor and consumer monthly series of price indexes from 2005 to 2012 in 8 European countries from both Southern and Northern Europe and via the use of time series as well as econometric approaches such as co-intergation and error correction models. The results obtained reveal that price transmission has very small magnitude. Indeed, just 10 to 12% of price shocks at one level are corrected in the long-run by prices at another level both downstream and upstream of the food supply chain. The results also show that prices are transmitted mutually in both directions downstream and upstream the food supply chain in the two European groups. Furthermore, they indicate that in the long-run prices are transmitted symmetrically both downstream and upstream of the food supply chains in Northern as well as in Southern Europe. Finally, in the short-run different conclusions are found depending on the region.
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Bollino, Carlo Andrea, and Maria Chiara D’Errico. "Electricity Demand Elasticity, Mobility, and COVID-19 Contagion Nexus in the Italian Day-Ahead Electricity Market." Energies 15, no. 20 (October 12, 2022): 7501. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15207501.
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The magnitude of the impact of the pandemic on key variables, such as electricity demand, mobility of people and number of COVID-19 hospitalization cases, has been unprecedented. Existing economic models have not estimated the impact of sucokh events. This paper fills this gap, investigating the nexus among electricity demand elasticity, shifting behaviors of mobility and COVID-19 contagion with econometric estimation techniques. Firstly, using the single bids to purchase recorded in the Italian day-ahead wholesale electricity market in 2020, we estimate hourly electricity demand and price elasticity directly from short-run consumer behavior. Then, we analyze the effects of the main aspects of the pandemic, the health situation and the mobility contraction at the national level, on the estimated price elasticities. The period of heavy lockdown between 10 March and 3 June recorded a reduction in the price elasticity of electricity demand. However, when the pandemic broke out again at the beginning of October, elasticity increased, highlighting how companies and economic activities had adopted countermeasures to avoid the arrest of the economy and, consequently, the sharp contraction in electricity demand.
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Campos, Octávio Valente, Wagner Moura Lamounier, and Rafael Morais de Souza. "The composition of firms' indebtedness and the macroeconomy of capital." Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil 21 (September 9, 2022): e3296. http://dx.doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662202232962.
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The objective of this research is to analyze the influence that monetary policies exert on the composition of the indebtedness of Brazilian corporations. From this objective, 2 hypotheses derive. The first analyzes the sample aggregate and the second directs the tests to the productive sectors. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital goods and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years 2009 to 2019. The methodology used for data analysis is through panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be concluded - in the light of the macroeconomics of capital - that the composition of the firms' indebtedness can be determined by the market moments defined by the monetary policies, so that such influence is different depending on the sector to which the companies are located in the production chain. These results complement the literature that studies the impacts of monetary policies and macroeconomic variables on corporate finance, mainly through econometric modeling based on accounting data.
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Alemayehu, Yidnekachew, and Mebratu Alemu. "The determinants of smallholder coffee producers’ market outlet choice decision in Debub ari district of South Omo Zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia." International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and Technology 12, no. 1 (August 23, 2022): 166–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/ijarit.v12i1.61048.
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This study mainly aimed at analyzing coffee market chain and the determinants of coffee market outlet choice decision of smallholder coffee producers in the Debub Ari District. The descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to analyze the data. Multivariate probit model was used to identify factors affecting market outlet choices of the smallholder coffee producers. Both primary and secondary data were collected from the study area. The multi-stage sampling techniques have been employed for this study. A total of 194 coffee producer household heads have been randomly selected and interviewed with the help of pre-tested structured questionnaire. The focus group discussion and key informants interviews were conducted to supplement the formal data. The probability of choosing collector, wholesalers, retailer, processor, consumer’s outlets is 67.1%, 66.4%, 36.9%, 71.6% and 15.3%, respectively. The joint probabilities of households to jointly choose the four market outlets was 0.031% which is greater than the likely of not choosing all market outlets which is 0.003%. Access to credit negatively influenced retailer, processor and consumer market outlet choice, distance to the nearest market negatively influenced processor market outlet choices, market information, off-farm participation positively influenced retailer and consumer market outlets choices. Therefore, the intervention is needed to improve coffee marketing chain through promoting cooperatives, infrastructural development and timely market information for efficient marketing system in the study area. Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. Tech. 12(1): 166-173, June 2022
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Karmeliuk Hanna, Svitlana Plaskon, and Halyna Seniv. "GDP AS A FACTOR INFLUENCING THE SOCIAL INDICATORS OF UKRAINE'S LIVELIHOOD: MODELLING." Economic Analysis, no. 28(2) (2018): 36–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2018.02.036.
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In the period 1996-2017, the dynamics of the subsistence minimum, the minimum wage, the consumer price index and the gross domestic product of Ukraine are analysed. These indicators have a growing trend. The necessity to use the mathematical modelling to study social and economic indicators of living standards of the population is emphasised. The trend of the dynamics of the minimum wage in the UAH is given. It has a tendency to increase. This tendency is described by quadratic dependence. The following periods are distinguished: 1996-2010 – the smooth growth of wages in quadratic dependence; 2010-2016 years – their slowed down growth by linear dependence. From 2017, when average wage has increased two times, the period of significant wages growing begins. Minimum wage retardation from the subsistence minimum until 2017 is shown. The dynamics of the subsistence minimum, which has the same periods and regularities as the salary, is analysed. Its trend is presented. The dynamics of the consumer price index is analysed. It has been broken down into the following intervals: I (1996-2010) – steady inflation growth; II (2010-2013) – price stability; III (2014 – until now) – rapid growth of prices or inflation. The inflation forecasting for 2018 is given. It is shown that economic growth (GDP) and social standards are cyclical. The main tendencies of the influence of the gross domestic product on the minimum wage, the consumer price index, the subsistence minimum are summarized. The dependence of the minimum wage on the volume of GDP is given. Econometric models of the dependence of the minimum wage on GDP in UAH and the level of inflation from the minimum wage are presented. It is shown that GDP growth is accompanied by the minimum wage increase. It is emphasized that growth of social payments negatively affects the growth of the consumer price index. It is noted that the rate of growth of the economy is not sufficient to ensure the growth of social benefits. The recommendations for economic growth are given.
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Sumithra, R. "Monetary Policy Goals for Economic Stability in India." Shanlax International Journal of Economics 8, no. 2 (March 1, 2020): 5–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/economics.v8i2.2155.
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This paper focused on the goals of monetary policy on how to take action to reduce the inflation rate and achieve economic stability in India. The monetary policy the arm of public policy the usual goals of monetary policy are to achieve full employment, to achieve high rate of economic growth, and to stabilize prices and wages, to maintain equilibrium the balance of payment, influencing the cost and availability of credit and increasing the repo rate by central bank and Government of India. Every country needs to achieve price stability in economic development. The inflation rate below close to 2% is low enough to allow the economy to benefit fully from price stability and avoid deflation risk and, beyond the level of inflation above 3 to 10% in any economy of the country, it’s harmful to the economy. Present India’s consumer price inflation rate was (CPI) 3.9% and the whole sale inflation rate of (WPI) 1.8% in the Financial Year of 2019. According to Econometric models estimated in 2020, India’s inflation rate is projected around 4.5%.
In this study, we study whether inflation is an effective tool for controlling inflation and achieving economic stability in India?
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Sen, Jayanta. "Growth and Distribution Effects of Changes in Levels of Living in Rural India: A Decomposition Analysis." Indian Journal of Human Development 14, no. 3 (November 15, 2020): 407–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973703020967904.
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This article deals with the changing pattern of levels of living in the rural regions of India during the period of 1993–1994 to 2011–2012 which also corresponds to the on-going economic reforms. These changes may be attributed either to the change in growth component or to the change in equity component or to both. The article therefore examines the effects of growth and distribution components on the variations in levels of living and their relative roles by a scheme of algebraic decomposition. It also investigates the influence of socio-economic factors on levels of living using econometric models. National Sample Survey Organisation consumer expenditure data for 15 major states of India are used for this analysis. Results show an improvement in levels of living (actual) in rural areas of all Indian states. Positive growth effect more than compensates the negative distribution effect and yield positive changes in some of the states. Further, this article argues that the main drivers of this positive change in the levels of living are development of rural physical infrastructure, attainment in education, farm income per capita, non-farm employment and livelihood diversification.
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Konkina, Vera S. "External expansion of the dairy market: Arguments "for" and "against"." Russian Economic Journal, no. 2 (April 13, 2022): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.33983/0130-9757-2022-2-48-59.
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The Russian agro-industrial complex is the most important branch of the national economy participating in the program of import substitution and ensuring food security of the country.
At the moment, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is implementing an export-oriented model of agricultural development. In the article, the author analyses the dynamics of foreign trade operations in the dairy food market. The information base for the integrated assessment was the data of Rosstat and the Customs Service on group 04 Dairy products TNVED. The dairy industry within the country shows progressive growth — gross production has been increasing since 2017. However, domestic agricultural producers cannot cover the domestic need for milk and dairy products. As a result — an increase in foreign economic operations. The analysis showed an increase in exports and imports. This is due to the influence of many factors. Factors and trends affecting their volumes in the short and long term were identified — the composition and structure of the balance of milk and dairy products resources, average per capita household income, average prices for dairy products, milk consumption per capita per year, volumes of foreign trade operations, etc. The built dynamic econometric models made it possible to distinguish limiting factors for each type of foreign economic transactions. For imports, these are average consumer prices for milk and annual consumption of dairy products per capita. For export — average consumer prices for dairy products. By influencing these factors, it is possible to ensure an increase in demand and supply in the dairy industry.
The conclusions made in the article can be used to develop and substantiate state agri-food policy.
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Getzner, Michael. "Spatially Disaggregated Cultural Consumption: Empirical Evidence of Cultural Sustainability from Austria." Sustainability 12, no. 23 (December 1, 2020): 10023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su122310023.
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The determinants of cultural consumption are rarely explored by means of travel demand (i.e., travel cost) models. In this paper, the empirical results are presented in regard to the frequency of attendance to cultural events as an indicator of cultural sustainability. Approximately 50% of the respondents who participated in a representative household survey in Austria stated that they would participate in cultural events at least once a year. The average frequency of attendance came to about 3 to 4 times a year, depending on the kind of cultural event (e.g., drama/opera performances, museum visits, concerts in schools of music). The estimations support the notion that the distance from the respondent’s residence to the cultural event is negatively correlated with the frequency of attendance. Other determinants include the typical socio-economic characteristics of respondents (e.g., education, income). However, the availability of cultural infrastructure in urban or rural areas, as well as municipal cultural spending, are the main spatial and public finance variables influencing attendance frequency. Based on the econometric estimations of the travel cost model, the economic value of attending a cultural event (consumer surplus) varies from EUR 38 (cinema) to EUR 55 (theater, opera) on average. The results suggest that local and regional cultural infrastructure are significant contributors to cultural sustainability.
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Prediger, Maciel, Ruben Huertas-Garcia, and Juan Carlos Gázquez-Abad. "How store flyers design affect perceived variety of retailers’ assortment." Industrial Management & Data Systems 119, no. 2 (March 11, 2019): 382–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/imds-04-2018-0149.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between several aspects of store flyers design (presence of a institutional slogan, type of product (national brand (NB) or store brand (SB)) featured on the cover page, the size of the flyer, number of featured NBs, type of brand (NB vs SB) on promotion, and price difference between the most expensive (NB) and the cheapest SB) and the consumer’s perceived variety of the retailer’s assortment, as a dimension of its global image.Design/methodology/approachA mixed laboratory experiment that combined a between-subjects experimental design and inter-subject conjoint analysis was conducted. A fictitious flyer from a fictitious supermarket was created that included both real NBs and fictitious SBs. In total, 12 scenarios (i.e. flyers) were tested using a sample of 406 participants.FindingsAnalysis suggests that longer flyers have the greatest influence on consumers’ perceived variety of a retailer’s assortment; a greater number of NBs in a category influenced consumers’ perceptions positively, and featuring SBs on the cover enhanced perceived variety. If a retailer features SBs on a flyer’s cover, longer flyers are recommended, and shorter flyers are recommended if NBs are featured on the cover. A retailer should promote its own brand only if the most expensive NBs are featured with SBs.Research limitations/implicationsThis study analyses a single aspect of consumers’ purchasing behaviors – variety of a retailer’s assortment. Future research should examine other variables related to consumers’ purchasing behaviors. This study uses an online context to test hypotheses, but many aspects of flyer design are physical. Future research should test current findings in offline contexts to compare results. Research should also explore moderation by consumer variables such as brand and store loyalty.Practical implicationsTo researchers, the authors offer improved understanding of how a flyer’s design affects the first stage of purchasing. To practitioners, results offer better understanding of positive returns on investment of store flyers, and to retailers, results offer a guide to creating and organizing flyers.Originality/valueThis study is first to assess how a flyer’s design influences a dimension of store image. Unlike extant research that examines store flyers using econometric models at the aggregate level, this study uses a laboratory experiment that combines a between-subjects design with conjoint analysis.
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Ratner, S. V. "Factors of the circular economy development." Financial Analytics: Science and Experience 13, no. 4 (November 13, 2020): 430–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/fa.13.4.430.
Full textAbstract:
Subject. Today the circular economy is viewed as a new model of economic growth that allows overcoming resource constraints. Despite the general understanding that environmental problems are the main incentive for the transition to circular models of production and consumption, the underlying factors in the development of this economic model have not been fully studied in modern literature. Are circular production models available only to technologically highly developed rich countries, or, conversely, poverty and a total lack of resources are the best incentive for the development of a circular economy? Objectives. I study the influence of such factors as the general economic and innovative development of the country, as well as the State's innovating activity to form and develop circular models of economic growth. Methods. The research was carried out with methods of econometric modeling. Eurostat data were used as an underlying source of information. Results. The study showed that the high level of the national economic development positively influences the resource efficiency of an economy, but more advanced countries produce more waste in the consumption sector. Production and consumption waste recycling demonstrates better trends in less economically developed countries. Countries with substantial innovation expenditures tend to have more robust municipal and industrial waste recycling technologies, as well as a more effective use of secondary materials. The development of an e-waste recycling system is essentially dependent on government incentives for innovation in this area. Conclusions. The findings can be used for outlining national federal and regional programs for the development of production and consumption waste recycling mechanisms in Russia. Social entrepreneurship and business initiative may appear one of the priority mechanisms spurring the circular economy in Russia through traditional patterns of resource-saving consumer behavior.