Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Consumer Econometric models'

This is an in-depth study of the structural change and transition of the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991 using disequilibrium econometric methodology. The model for the Chinese consumer goods market is based on the Portes-Winter disequilibrium model for centrally planned economies (1980). The demand function is derived from the Houthakker-Taylor savings function. The supply function is composed of approximations to the government's long-term and short-term plans. The transaction quantity in the market is defined as the smaller of effective demand and supply. Using the traditional global fitting method, three models are evaluated: one model that assumes no structural change, and two models that assume structural change. The estimations show that the structures of the demand and supply functions of the Chinese consumer goods market have changed since the economic reform in 1980. An innovative non-parametric method of locally weighted optimization is applied to further test the variations in model parameters during the period between 1954 and 1991 without assuming explicit functional forms of demand and supply. The estimation results show that the Chinese consumer goods market fits the Portes-Winter model well in the earlier years. The results confirm that the structures of demand and supply functions have changed since the economic reform. In the late 1980's, the Chinese consumer goods market is shown to have shifted away from a pure centrally planned system. Other main conclusions of this study include, first, that chronic shortage does not exist in the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991. Second, a rigid price level has not caused the market to be persistently in disequilibrium. Third, the classical disequilibrium model of consumer goods market in centrally planned economies does not fit the Chinese consumer goods market in the later years.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a dieta alimentar dos brasileiros. Para tal, estimouse o sistema de equações de demanda do consumidor por nutrientes e as elasticidades, que trazem informações sobre a sensibilidade do consumidor frente a variações nos preços e na renda. A base de dados utilizada foi a Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) de 2002/3, realizada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Utilizou-se o modelo QUAIDS para estimar as equações de demanda e as elasticidades preço e renda/dispêndio foram calculadas. A hipótese de não-linearidade do dispêndio total não foi rejeitada, ratificando a utilização do Modelo QUAIDS. Para os nutrientes lipídios, colesterol, proteína, vitaminas A e B e fibras alimentares, as elasticidades da demanda se reduziram com a evolução da renda, o que indica o consumo mais elevado destes nutrientes em domicílios mais ricos. Os carboidratos não apresentaram grande oscilação no consumo conforme a variação da renda. Sobre os efeitos dos preços no consumo de nutrientes, os que se mostraram mais sensíveis a mudanças de preços foram: carboidratos; cálcio; ferro; colesterol; e vitamina C, nutrientes estes que compõem os alimentos básicos brasileiros.
This work was carried out in order to analyze the Brazilian food diet by estimating the consumer demand system of equations for nutrients and their elasticities, which bring information about the consumer sensibility face to price and income changes. The database used was from Household Expenditure Survey (POF, 2002/03) produced by IBGE (Brazilian Bureau of Statistics). The QUAIDS model was used to estimate the equations for eleven nutrients. The hypothesis of the total income\'s non-linearity was not rejected, reaffirming the use of the QUAIDS\' Model. For lipids, cholesterol, protein, vitamins A and B and fibers, the income elasticities showed a decrease as income raises, this behavior indicates the higher consumption of these nutrients in richer households. The carbohydrates did not present much variation as income changes. When it comes to the price effect on the nutrients consumption, the results suggest that the most sensible nutrients were: carbohydrates; calcium; iron; cholesterol; and vitamin C. These nutrients represent most of the basic diet food in Brazil

Includes list of Supplementary refereed publications relating to thesis; and of Refereed conference papers, as appendix 1 Includes bibliograhical references (p. 316-343) Focusses particularly on the purchase of wine and the factors that influence consumer choice and the values that drive the decision process across different consumption occasions. The effectiveness of occasion as part of the theoretical model of means-end chain analysis is investigated, as well as the feasibility of occasion in the Olsen and Thach (2001) conceptual framework of consumer behavior relating to wine.

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Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the e§ect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and in other developed countries as U.S. and U.K. Our Örst motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation is the boom of the real-estate prices in Brazil in the last Öve years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and S„o Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last Öve years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive e§ect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible signiÖcant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare (consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our Öndings support the view that the channel through which house prices a§ect consumption is a Önancial one.
Este tese é composta por quatro ensaios sobre aplicações econométricas em tópicos econômicos relevantes. Os estudos versam sobre consumo de bens não-duráveis e preços de imóveis, capital humano e crescimento econômico, demanda residencial de energia elétrica e, por fim, periodicidade de variáveis fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. No primeiro artigo, 'Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level', é investigada a relação entre variação do preço de imóveis e variação no consumo de bens não-duráveis. Os dados coletados permitem a formação de um painel com sete estados brasileiros observados entre 2008- 2012. Os resultados são obtidos a partir da estimação de uma forma reduzida obtida em Campbell e Cocco (2007) que aproxima um modelo estrutural. As estimativas para o caso brasileiro são inferiores as de Campbell e Cocco (2007), que, por sua vez, utilizaram microdados britânicos. O segundo artigo, 'Uma medida alternativa de capital humano para o estudo empírico do crescimento', propõe uma forma de mensuração do estoque de capital humano que reflita diretamente preços de mercado, através do valor presente do fluxo de renda real futura. Os impactos dessa medida alternativa são avaliados a partir da estimação da função de produção tradicional dos modelos de crescimento neoclássico. Os dados compõem um painel de 25 países observados entre 1970 e 2010. Um exercício de robustez é realizado para avaliar a estabilidade dos coeficientes estimados diante de variações em variáveis exógenas do modelo. Por sua vez, o terceiro artigo 'Household Electricity Demand in Brazil: a microdata approach', parte de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) para mensurar a elasticidade preço da demanda residencial brasileira por energia elétrica. O uso de microdados permite adotar abordagens que levem em consideração a seleção amostral. Seu efeito sobre a demanda de eletricidade é relevante, uma vez que esta demanda é derivada da demanda por estoque de bens duráveis. Nesse contexto, a escolha prévia do estoque de bens duráveis (e consequentemente, a escolha pela intensidade de energia desse estoque) condiciona a demanda por eletricidade dos domicílios. Finalmente, o quarto trabalho, 'Interpolação de Variáveis Fiscais Brasileiras usando Representação de Espaço de Estados' procurou sanar o problema de baixa periodicidade da divulgação de séries fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. Através de técnica de interpolação baseada no Filtro de Kalman, as séries mensais não observadas são projetadas a partir de séries bimestrais parcialmente observadas e covariáveis mensais selecionadas.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
The appropriate availability of energy resources is an aspect to be considered in the recovery process of the Brazilian economical growth, such fact highlighted by the widespread use of that resource n the economy, as well as on the electric energy crises in 2001, and the natural gas in the years 2004 and 2005. That said, there is a need of reasoning of decision making, or more specifically the strategic management in the supply of energy sources. In this respect, models of prediction have been shown as an important tool to help in these decision makings. Thus some predictions were made by making use of the proposal of econometry integration + product input, this latter being hybrid for the year 2005. The econometric block was employed to endogenize the family consumption and the private investment. Completing the necessary information to carry out the predictions, the scenery setting was used for it, being of Low, of Reference, and of High ones. The integration of the two blocks by the connection strategy all along with the sceneries. That enabled to make predictions which indicated that the oil and natural gas sectors, oil and coke refinement, alcohol and electricity for the High scenery will quite double their rates of consumption on the Brazilian economy from 2006 to 2015, given an average growth of 96%. For the sceneries of Reference and of Low, the results indicate an increase respectively of 45% and 13%. Comparing the results of the predictions for the years 2006 to 2008 with the data available was possible to get at a reasonable rate of accuracy in the predictions, such fact was essentially true for the Electricity sector.
A adequada disponibilidade de recursos energéticos é um aspecto a ser considerado no processo de recuperação do crescimento econômico brasileiro, fato este realçado pela utilização generalizada desse recurso na economia, bem como, pelas crises de energia elétrica de 2001 e do gás natural nos anos de 2004 e 2005. Sendo assim, há a necessidade de racionalização da tomada de decisão, ou mais precisamente da gestão estratégica no suprimento de fontes energéticas. Neste contexto, modelos de previsão têm se apresentado como uma ferramenta importante para subsidiar nessas tomadas de decisão. Desta forma, foram realizadas previsões utilizando-se da proposta de integração econometria + insumoproduto, sendo esta última híbrida, para o ano de 2005. O bloco econométrico foi empregado para endogeneizar o consumo das famílias e o investimento privado. Complementando as informações necessárias para a realização das previsões se fez uso da construção de cenários, sendo eles o de Baixa, de Referência e de Alta. A integração dos dois blocos pela estratégia de ligação, juntamente aos cenários, permitiu construir previsões que indicaram que os setores petróleo e gás natural, refino de petróleo e coque, álcool e eletricidade, para o cenário de Alta, praticamente dobrarão os seus níveis de consumo na economia brasileira no intervalo de 2006 a 2015, dado um crescimento médio de 96%. Para os cenários de Referência e de Baixa, os resultados indicam um crescimento de respectivamente 45% e 13%. Confrontando os resultados das previsões para os anos de 2006 a 2008 aos dados a que já se tem disponibilidade pôde-se perceber um nível razoável de acurácia das previsões, fato este principalmente verdadeiro para o setor Eletricidade.

A previsão do consumo de energia elétrica do Brasil é muito importante para os órgãos reguladores do setor. Uma série de metodologias têm sido utilizadas para a projeção desse consumo. Destacam-se os modelos de regressão com dados em painel, modelos de cointegração e defasagem distribuída, modelos estruturais de séries temporais e modelos de Box & Jenkins de séries temporais, dentre outros. Neste trabalho estimar-se um modelo de previsão do consumo comercial, industrial e residencial de energia brasileiro por meio de modelos SARMAX. Nesses modelos o consumo de energia pode ser estimado por meio de uma regressão linear múltipla considerando diversas variáveis macroeconômicas como variáveis explicativas. Os resíduos desse modelo são explicados por meio de um modelo de Box & Jenkins. Neste estudo realiza-se uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre fatores que influenciam no consumo de energia elétrica e levantam-se variáveis proxies para prever este consumo no Brasil. Utiliza-se uma base de dados mensal no período entre Janeiro de 2003 e Setembro de 2010 para construção de cada um dos três modelos de previsão citados. Utilizase uma amostra de validação de Outubro de 2010 até Fevereiro de 2011. Realiza-se a avaliação dos modelos estimados em termos de adequação às premissas teóricas e ao desempenho nas medidas de acurácia MAPE, RMSE e coeficiente de determinação ajustado. Os modelos estimados para o consumo de energia elétrica dos setores comercial, industrial e residencial obtêm um MAPE de 2,05%, 1,09% e 1,27%; um RMSE de 144,13, 185,54 e 158,40; e um coeficiente de determinação ajustado de 95,91%, 93,98% e 96,03% respectivamente. Todos os modelos estimados atendem os pressupostos de normalidade, ausência de autocorrelação serial e ausência de heterocedasticidade condicionada dos resíduos. Os resultados confirmaram a viabilidade da utilização das variáveis macroeconômicas testadas para estimar o consumo de energia elétrica por setores e a viabilidade da metodologia para a previsão destas séries na amostra de dados selecionada.
The prediction of electricity consumption in Brazil is very important to the industry regulators. A number of methodologies have been used for the projection of this consumption. Noteworthy are the regression models with data in panel, co-integration and distributed lag models, time series structural models and Box & Jenkins time series models among others. In this work we intend to estimate a forecasting model of the Brazilian commercial, industrial and residential consumption of energy by means of SARMAX models. In these models the power consumption can be estimated by a multiple linear regression considering various macro-economic variables as explanatory variables. The residues of this model are explained by a Box & Jenkins model. In this study it is carried out a bibliographic research on factors that influence energy consumption and proxy variables are risen to predict the consumption in Brazil. The consumption of electricity is estimated for the commercial, industrial and residential sectors. It is used a monthly data base over the period between January 2003 and September 2010 for the construction of each of the three prediction models mentioned. It is used a validation sample from October 2010 to February 2011. It is carried out the assessment of the estimated models in terms of compliance with the theoretical premises and the performance on measures of accuracy MAPE, RMSE and adjusted determinant coefficient. The estimated models for the energy consumption of commercial, industrial and residential sectors obtain a MAPE of 2.05%, 1.09% and 1.27%; a RMSE of 144.13, 185.54 and 158.40; and a adjusted determinant coefficient of 95.91%, 93.98% and 96.03% respectively. All estimated models satisfy the assumptions of normality, absence of serial autocorrelation and absence of conditioned heteroscedasticity of the residues. The results confirmed the viability of the usage of the macroeconomic variables tested to estimate the energy consumption by sector and the viability of the methodology for the prediction of these series in the selected data sample.

My thesis contains essays on voting theory, market structures and fiscal federalism: (i) One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation, (ii) Runoff Elections and the Condorcet Loser, (iii) On the Influence of Rankings when Product Quality Depends on Buyer Characteristics, and (iv) Redistributing Income under Fiscal Vertical Imbalance.

(i) One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation (joint with Micael Castanheira)

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

(ii) Runoff Elections and the Condorcet Loser

A crucial component of Runoff electoral systems is the threshold fraction of votes above which a candidate wins outright in the first round. I analyze the influence of this threshold on the voting equilibria in three-candidate Runoff elections. I demonstrate the existence of an Ortega Effect which may unduly favor dominated candidates and thus lead to the election of the Condorcet Loser in equilibrium. The reason is that, contrarily to commonly held beliefs, lowering the threshold for first-round victory may actually induce voters to express their preferences excessively. I also extend Duverger's Law to Runoff elections with any threshold below, equal or above 50%. Therefore, Runoff elections are plagued with inferior equilibria that induce either too high or too low expression of preferences.

(iii) On the Influence of Rankings when Product Quality Depends on Buyer Characteristics

Information on product quality is crucial for buyers to make sound choices. For "experience products", this information is not available at the time of the purchase: it is only acquired through consumption. For much experience products, there exist institutions that provide buyers with information about quality. It is commonly believed that such institutions help consumers to make better choices and are thus welfare improving.

The quality of various experience products depends on the characteristics of buyers. For instance, conversely to the quality of cars, business school quality depends on buyers (i.e. students) characteristics. Indeed, one of the main inputs of a business school is enrolled students. The choice of buyers for such products has then some features of a coordination problem: ceteris paribus, a buyer prefers to buy a product consumed by buyers with "good" characteristics. This coordination dimension leads to inefficiencies when buyers coordinate on products of lower "intrinsic" quality. When the quality of products depends on buyer characteristics, information about product quality can reinforce such a coordination problem. Indeed, even though information of high quality need not mean high intrinsic quality, rational buyers pay attention to this information because they prefer high quality products, no matter the reason of the high quality. Information about product quality may then induce buyers to coordinate on products of low intrinsic quality.

In this paper, I show that, for experience products which quality depends on the characteristics of buyers, more information is not necessarily better. More precisely, I prove that more information about product quality may lead to a Pareto deterioration, i.e. all buyers may be worse off due.

(iv) Redistributing Income under Fiscal Vertical Imbalance (joint with Marjorie Gassner and Vincenzo Verardi)

From the literature on decentralization, it appears that the fiscal vertical imbalance (i.e. the dependence of subnational governments on national government revenues to support their expenditures) is somehow inherent to multi-level governments. Using a stylized model we show that this leads to a reduction of the extent of redistributive fiscal policies if the maximal size of government has been reached. To test for this empirically, we use some high quality data from the LIS dataset on individual incomes. The results are highly significant and point in the direction of our theoretical predictions.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

DAMASCENO, Geovani Maia. Relações entre produção industrial e demanda de energia: uma aplicação de modelo VAR. 2009. 37p. Dissertação (mestrado ) - Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, CAEN, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza-CE, 2009.
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The objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between industrial production and demand for electric energy in the Ceará state. First, it analyzed the behavior of the series used in the study, verifying if they were stationary or integrated processes. Second, Cointegrating tests were utilized to verify of the long-run relationship among economic variables. Finally, through VAR estimation, it was possible to analyze the effect of the variation a long of the time of the industrial production on the others variables. The results obtained indicated that shocks in the industrial production make to increase the energy production, over all of the oil derivatives. The effect most significant occurred on the variable oil diesel. In relation to the electric energy, the results had little indicated a significant variation of this source to explain the increase of the industrial production. In virtue of Ceará industry to be more sensible the shocks in the oil derivatives that in the electric energy, seem to be more reasonable to the State to adopt politics that stimulate the expansion of offer of the first ones, in case that it has as pretension to stimulate its industrial growth.
Esse estudo tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre produção industrial e demanda de energia no Estado do Ceará. Para tanto buscou-se, a princípio, analisar o comportamento das séries utilizadas no estudo, verificando se eram estacionárias ou processos integrados. Em seguida, procedeu-se ao teste de co-integração, cujo intuito era determinar se as séries apresentavam alguma tendência comum ao longo do tempo. Por fim, através da estimação de um VAR, procurou-se analisar o efeito da variação ao longo do tempo da produção industrial sobre as demais variáveis. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que choques na produção industrial fazem aumentar a produção de energia, sobretudo dos derivados de petróleo. O efeito mais significativo ocorreu sobre a variável óleo diesel. Em relação à energia elétrica, os resultados indicaram uma variação pouco significante dessa fonte para explicar o aumento da produção industrial. Em virtude da indústria cearense ser mais sensível a choques nos derivados de petróleo que na energia elétrica, parece ser mais razoável ao Estado adotar políticas que incentivem a expansão da oferta dos primeiros, caso tenha como pretensão estimular seu crescimento industrial .

This thesis considers the economics of preferences in two different contexts. First it examines damages from climate change. I argue that our ignorance of the welfare implications of higher levels of warming, as well as scientific uncertainty in precisely what might trigger these scenarios, imply that our tastes and beliefs are incomplete (in the sense of Galaabaatar and Karni, 2013). That is, there are many 'plausible' ways to evaluate a given scenario. In Chapter 1, then, I develop this theory, and use it to formally separate climate impacts into three sorts: those understood well, those understood badly, and those representing the worst possible scenario. I provide a generalisation of the 'dismal theorem' of Weitzman (2009a), and address the question of policy choice: prices versus quantities (cf. Weitzman, 1974). Chapter 2 is an example of the analysis propounded in Chapter 1. I explore the sensitivity of the social cost of carbon to assumed damages from 4C warming, to the assumed extent of CO2 emissions, and to the modelling of the climate and carbon cycles. The analysis shows that differing prior assumptions can alter our evaluation of policy by orders of magnitude. The second part of this thesis regards preferences for indivisible goods. In Chapter 3, which is joint work with Paul Klemperer, I introduce to this field the 'tropical hypersurface', being those prices at which an agent's demand changes. Simple geometric features of this set tell us the precise trade-offs that interest the agent. Thus we develop a new taxonomy of valuations, `demand types'; familiar notions such as substitutes and complements are examples. Finally, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition on these `demand types' for existence of competitive equilibrium, which implies several existing results, as well as new and quite different examples.

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Tendo em vista a completa transformação do mercado de vinhos no Brasil ocorrida nos últimos 10 anos, e o seu ainda enorme potencial de crescimento, esta dissertação se propõe a identificar, através da Metodologia de Preços Hedônicos, os preços implícitos de características de rótulo, sensoriais e informativas de vinhos no mercado brasileiro. A análise destes preços, que não são isoladamente transacionados nos pontos de venda, mas que são indiretamente praticados em equilíbrio de mercado, é de fundamental importância para o entendimento dos critérios de decisão e do comportamento do consumidor. O modelo mostra, entre outras conclusões, que o mercado brasileiro valoriza vinhos mais encorpados, com longa permanência em barris de madeira, que têm como sugestão de uso a guarda (e não o consumo imediato) e que são procedentes, nesta ordem, da França, Itália, Portugal e Espanha.
Given the complete transformation that the Brazilian wine market has gone through in the last decade, and its still great growth potential, this work intends to identify, using the Hedonic Prices Methodology, the implicit prices of label, sensory and informative characteristics of wines in the Brazilian market. The analysis of such prices, which are not individually practiced, but that are indirectly negotiated in market equilibrium, is of great importance for the understanding of the consumers‟ decision criteria and behavior. The model shows, among other conclusions, that the Brazilian consumer values wines that are full-bodied, which stayed for long period in oak barrels, which have cellaring potential (as opposed to those which are to be consumed immediately), and that were produced in France, Italy, Portugal and Spain, in this order.

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The dissertation analyzes data of the Brazilian household consumption and income between the years 1947 and 2009. The study aims to evaluate to what extent the aggregate consumption of Brazilian household may approximate be a random walk. The dissertation uses Johansen's cointegration techniques (1988, 1991) and super exogeneity tests as proposed by Engle and Hendry et al. (1983). The dissertation attempts to evaluate whether interventions that affect consumption will impact the dynamics of aggregate income. These interventions can occur through credit policies and tax changes, among other macroeconomic shocks. Finally, a decomposition is made following the methodology proposed by Gonzalo-Granger (1995) and evaluating the importance of shocks in permanent and temporary changes in consumption.
A dissertação analisa os dados de consumo e renda das famílias brasileiras entre os anos de 1947 e 2009. O trabalho visa avaliar em que medida o consumo agregado das famílias brasileiras pode ser bem aproximando a partir de um passeio aleatório puro. O trabalho utiliza técnicas de cointegração de Johansen (1988, 1991) e testes de super exogeneidade na forma proposta por Hendry, Engle et al. (1983). A dissertação procura avaliar se intervenções que afetam o consumo das famílias geram impacto na dinâmica da renda agregada das mesmas. Tais intervenções podem ser por políticas de crédito, alterações tributárias, choque macroeconômicos entre outras. Por fim uma decomposição entre fatores permanentes e transitórios será feita pela metodologia proposta por Gonzalo-Granger (1995) com o objetivo de avaliar-se a importância dos choques permanentes e transitórios para as variações do consumo.

Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica, Florianópolis, 2009
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A estreita relação existente entre oferta e demanda é um dos temas centrais do planejamento e da operação dos sistemas de energia elétrica. O desconhecimento sobre o comportamento do consumidor pode ter consequências graves ao equilíbrio entre a oferta e a demanda. A dinâmica de mercados competitivos de energia elétrica envolvendo grandes consumidores industriais exige um alto nível de conhecimento sobre a evolução da demanda. Neste trabalho apresenta-se um novo modelo para descrever e prever a demanda dos consumidores industriais de energia elétrica, de forma desagregada. Por meio de um modelo descritivo da demanda é possível quantificar a influência de fatores econômicos e/ou climáticos característicos de um segmento da indústria. A partir desse conhecimento, o trabalho apresenta um modelo de preditivo, baseado em redes neurais artificiais, para estimar o consumo nos meses seguintes. O diferencial deste trabalho está na aplicação de técnicas de mineração de dados como suporte à integração do modelo econométrico de descrição com o modelo neural de previsão. Para validação da metodologia proposta foram utilizados dados mensais de consumo das indústrias têxtil e metalúrgicas de Santa Catarina, fornecidos pelas Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina - CELESC S.A. Os resultados da pesquisa podem contribuir para o planejamento da produção e comercialização da energia elétrica, principalmente em mercados competitivos, gerando maior comprometimento nas relações de comercialização da energia elétrica.
The narrow relationship between demand and supply is of paramount importance for planning and operation of electrical power systems. The lack of knowledge about consumer's behavior may lead to serious problems to the balance between supply and demand. The dynamic of competitive markets related to great industrial consumers needs a high level of knowledge about the market evolution. Then, this work presents a new model to describe and foresee the separated demand of great industrial consumers of electrical energy. It is possible to include the economic and climatic factors, which are characteristics of some industrial sector, by using an appropriated modeling technique. Afterwards, it is developed a predictive model based on neural networks to estimate the demand up to 12 months ahead. The main contribution of this thesis is in the application of data mining procedures as an aid to integrate the econometric model of description with the neural network model of demand forecasting. To validate these models real data were used from CELESC, a south brazilian power utility, referring to textile and metallurgical Industrial sectors. The results of this research have demonstrated that the proposed model is a promising computational tool to improve the understanding of the electrical energy production business.

Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第14561号
工博第3029号
新制||工||1451(附属図書館)
26913
UT51-2009-D273
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
(主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 酒井 伸一, 准教授 倉田 学児
学位規則第4条第1項該当

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This thesis encompasses five papers about two Brazilian infrastructure sectors: energy and road transportation. In the first paper, we model the bid in the Brazilian transmission lines auctions, in order to understand why the winning bids have been lower than one could expect. In the second paper, we estimate the electricity demand and the price and income elasticity of the consumers, using a new technique and including the 2001 Rationing period, which could have changed the consumers’ behavior. In the third paper, we study the evolution of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market worldwide. The LNG could be a link to the natural gas markets and we test this hypothesis using time series and copulas analysis. In the fourth paper, we discuss the entrance of the LNG in the national electricity market. Finally, in the last paper, we analyze the Road concession experience in Brazil. We add new insights about the auction model used in this sector and also about the contract design.
A presente tese engloba cinco trabalhos sobre dois setores brasileiros de infraestrutura: setor de energia e de transportes. No primeiro trabalho, modela-se o lance dos leilões de linhas de transmissão de energia, buscando compreender porque os lances ganhadores têm se situado em níveis abaixo do que se espera. No segundo paper, estima-se a demanda de energia do Brasil e as elasticidades preço e renda que os consumidores apresentem em relação a essa demanda, usando uma técnica ainda não aplicada na literatura e incluindo o período da Crise do Racionamento – a qual pode ter mudado o padrão de consumo dos agentes. No terceiro trabalho, estuda-se a evolução do mercado de gás natural liquefeito (GNL) ao redor do mundo. O GNL pode ser o link que faltava entre os mercados de gás natural e essa hipótese é testada por meio de análises de séries de tempo e de cópulas. O quarto paper discute a entrada do GNL no sistema energético brasileiro e suas eventuais consequências. Por fim, o quinto paper analisa a experiência de leilões de rodovias no Brasil. O trabalho levanta relevantes insights a respeito do modelo de leilão utilizado e dos detalhes contratuais dessas licitações.

This thesis examines the measurement, applications and properties of consumer inflation expectations in the context of eight European Union countries: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The data proceed mainly from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and are qualitative in nature, therefore requiring quantification prior to use. This study first seeks to determine the optimal quantification methodology among a set of approaches spanning three traditions, associated with Carlson-Parkin (1975), Pesaran (1984) and Seitz (1988). The success of a quantification methodology is assessed on the basis of its ability to match quantitative expectations data and on its behaviour in an important economic application, namely the modelling of wages for our sample countries. The wage equation developed here draws on the theoretical background of the staggered contracts and the wage bargaining literature, and controls carefully for inflation expectations and institutional variables. The Carlson-Parkin variation proposed in Curto Millet (2004) was found to be the most satisfactory. This being established, the wage equations are used to test the hypothesis that the advent of EMU generated an increase in labour market flexibility, which would be reflected in structural breaks. The hypothesis is essentially rejected. Finally, the properties of inflation expectations and perceptions themselves are examined, especially in the context of EMU. Both the rational expectations and rational perceptions hypotheses are rejected. Popular expectations mechanisms, such as the "rule-of-thumb" model or Akerlof et al.'s (2000) "near-rationality hypothesis" are similarly unsupported. On the other hand, evidence is found for the transmission of expert forecasts to consumer expectations in the case of the UK, as in Carroll's (2003) model. The distribution of consumer expectations and perceptions is also considered, showing a tendency for gradual (as in Mankiw and Reis, 2002) but non-rational adjustment. Expectations formation is further shown to have important qualitative features.

This dissertation consists of three independent essays. We briefly introduce these essays in chapter 1 and leave a comprehensive introduction to each essay. Chapter 2 considers a vertically separated industry where production takes time and vertical mergers shorten production time. We investigate the impact of vertical mergers on the downstream firms' ability to collude and show that vertical mergers facilitate downstream collusion. Chapter 3 provides a theoretical foundation for a puzzling empirical observation that advertising follows an inverted U shape for some new products. Chapter 4 analyzes an incumbent's response to a competitive entry. We show that if the quality of the entrant is uncertain, the incumbent can "jam" the quality signalling of the entrant. Finally, chapter 5 summarizes main conclusions of three essays.
text

Includes list of Supplementary refereed publications relating to thesis; and of Refereed conference papers, as appendix 1
Includes bibliograhical references (p. 316-343)
xix, 381 p. : ill. ; 30 cm.
Focusses particularly on the purchase of wine and the factors that influence consumer choice and the values that drive the decision process across different consumption occasions. The effectiveness of occasion as part of the theoretical model of means-end chain analysis is investigated, as well as the feasibility of occasion in the Olsen and Thach (2001) conceptual framework of consumer behavior relating to wine.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Agriculture and Wine, Discipline of Wine and Horticulture, 2003