Academic literature on the topic 'Consumer credit – Canada – Statistics'

Abstract When debt becomes unmanageable, two options for a consumer debtor in Canada are: (1) enlisting the services of a bankruptcy trustee, and (2) becoming a client of a not-for-profit credit counselling agency. Each of these options is regulated differently and has public and private dimensions. At first glance, these two options might seem to illustrate the potential of multiple legal orders to better serve the public. In this paper, however, we argue, based on empirical research on the credit counselling industry, that while this pluralism has potential to facilitate debt relief in Canada, it has failed to do so. The lines between public and private options have been blurred to the point where they are difficult to discern, and the consumer debtor is ultimately disadvantaged.

This study examines the changes occurring in the consumption behavior of the Malaysian consumers towards the use of credit cards as a source of consumer finance. Use of credit cards as payment had considerably multiplied in Malaysia ever since 1990s. Supported by the conceptual framework, five independent variables were employed. This was evaluated with respect to one dependent variable in this study. The dependent variable was the credit card. The questionnaire was tested using 160 questionnaires, using validity test, linear correlation, descriptive statistics and multiple regressions to test the results. The results indicated that there was a relationship between credit card debts, attitude, income, understanding/knowledge, potential impact of credit card utilization among bank customers. The study can be used by banks to be aware of the increased usage of credit cards which can give rise to increase in consumer finance in the future.

The study aims to prove the relationship policy variable consumer protection against credit card provider that include the perception of the credit card services, credit card customer satisfaction and aspirations of consumer protection program techniques of data collection and measurement scales using two to four alternative answers are combined. The tipe of approach used in this study is correlation. The typeof statistics used are parametic, for a description using the mean standard deviation, while to look at the data analysisusing partial correlation. The study population included 30 people with the sampling technique used purposive sampling. Statistical testing using statistical package for social sciences version 16,0 widow with a significant level of p>0,5 the result that the hypothesis is accepted, it mean there is a significant relationship between policy analisys of consumer protection againt credit card provider.

Purpose: The study sought to determine the effect of consumer protection function on financial performance of SACCOs in Kenya.Methodology: The study adopted a descriptive research design. The target population comprised of registered 181 deposit-taking SACCOs as at 31st December 2014 and the three licensed CRBs in Kenya. Stratified random sampling was used in the study, where SACCOs were grouped into five respective strata which were then randomly selected. The SACCOs were grouped into five respective strata of government based, teachers based, farmers based, private institutions based and community based. The study sampled 135 of the 181 (74.5%) licensed deposit taking SACCOs since these were the only licensed deposit-taking SACCOs by 2014. The choice of the licensed deposit taking SACCOs in Kenya was very objective since it was possible to obtain information that is representative of Kenya. In addition, SACCOs form the smaller arm in the financial sector and in most cases deals with a larger group of clients from the informal sector as opposed to other financial institutions like banks. Both primary and secondary data were analyzed using SPSS software, and statistics generated included descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The particular descriptive statistics used included frequencies and percentages while the particular inferential statistics included Pearson correlation analysis and regression. Correlation analysis was used to establish relationships between the consumer protection function and financial performances. Regression analysis was used to establish the significance of the variables and the degree of causal effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The hypotheses testing were conducted using simple regression model.Findings: From the data analysis the study concluded that there was a significant and positive relationship between consumer protection function and financial performance thus the existence of credit reference bureaus was suitable for improving financial performance of SACCOs. This implies that that Credit reference bureaus have led to consumer protection and increased customers’ rights. Similarly, credit reference bureaus have led to assumption that borrowing is a right regardless of capabilities. Credit reference bureaus have reduces undesired monopolistic actions of lenders. Lastly, credit reference bureaus have led to reduced bad “culture” on loan repayment.Recommendation: The study recommended that lenders should ensure that they have accurate information before listing the unworthy borrowers to avoid unnecessary legal battles which may affect performance as a measure for customer rights protection.

One of the main aims of the National Credit Act (NCA) of 2005 in South Africa is to curtail rising consumer over-indebtedness by encouraging credit providers to adopt responsible lending practices. This research study seeks to ascertain whether the NCA’s responsible lending requirements have limited reckless lending by credit providers. Data are collected by a telephonic survey amongst debt counselors and in-depth interviews amongst bank employees. Descriptive statistics are used to analyze data from the descriptive survey, while data from in-depth interviews are analyzed using the thematic approach. Credit providers have divided opinions on whether the NCA limits reckless lending practices. Debt counselors claimed that credit providers are lending irresponsibly. By contrast, insights obtained from bank employees indicate compliance. However, both agree that borrowers are not borrowing responsibly. As a result, consumer education is required to educate consumers on both the benefits and risks of borrowing. It is also recommended that lenders be audited for compliance to the Credit act.

The subject of the study is the financial and economic activities of the subjects of domestic credit cooperation at the present stage. The purpose of the work is to determine the contradictions in the functioning of credit consumer cooperatives (at the micro and macro levels) and to develop practical measures to resolve them. The article singles out seven main groups of problems an unbalanced structure of the rights and obligations of the shareholders of credit cooperatives, low degree of state regulation of the credit cooperative market, instability in the subject composition of the credit cooperative market, low degree of security of the invested funds in credit cooperatives, ultra-low openness of financial statistics of credit cooperation, low transparency of the conditions for the provision of financial services by credit 83 cooperatives, insufficient attention to strategic planning and conducting scientific and practical consultations.

This thesis focuses on modelling the distributions of loss in consumer credit arrangements, both at an individual level and at a portfolio level, and how these might be influenced by loan-specific factors and economic factors. The thesis primarily aims to examine how these factors can be incorporated into a credit risk model through logistic regression models and threshold regression models. Considering the fact that the specification of a credit risk model is influenced by its purpose, the thesis considers the IFRS 7 and IFRS 9 accounting requirements for impairment disclosure as well as Basel II regulatory prescriptions for capital requirements. The thesis presents a critique of the unexpected loss calculation under Basel II by considering the different ways in which loans can correlate within a portfolio. Two distributions of portfolio losses are derived. The Vašíček distribution, which is the assumed in Basel II requirements, was originally derived for corporate loans and was never adapted for application in consumer credit. This makes it difficult to interpret and validate the correlation parameters prescribed under Basel II. The thesis re-derives the Vašíček distribution under a threshold regression model that is specific to consumer credit risk, thus providing a way to estimate the model parameters from observed experience. The thesis also discusses how, if the probability of default is modelled through logistic regression, the portfolio loss distribution can be modelled as a log-log-normal distribution.

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, 2015.
Standard survival analysis methods model lifetime data where cohorts are tracked from the point of origin, until the occurrence of an event. If more than one event occurs, a special model is chosen to handle competing risks. Moreover, if the events are defined such that most subjects are not susceptible to the event(s) of interest, standard survival methods may not be appropriate. This project is an application of survival analysis in a consumer credit context. The data used in this study was obtained from a major South African financial institution covering a five year observation period from April 2009 to March 2014. The aim of the project was to follow up on cohorts from the point where vehicle finance loans originated to either default or early settlement events and compare survival and logistic modeling methodologies. As evidenced by the empirical Kaplain Meier survival curve, the data typically had long term survivors with heavy censoring as at March 2014. Cause specific Cox regression models were fitted and an adjustment was made for each model, to accommodate a proportion p of long term survivors. The corresponding Cumulative Incidence Curves were calculated per model, to determine probabilities at a fixed horizon of 48 months. Given the complexity of the consumer credit lifetime data at hand, we investigated how logistic regression methods would compare. Logistic regression models were fitted per event type. The models were assessed for goodness of fit. Their ability to differentiate risk were determined using the model Gini Statistics. Model assessment results were satisfactory. Methodologies were compared for each event type using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and area under the curves. The Results show that survival methods perform better than logistic regression methods when modelling lifetime data in the presence of competing risks and long term survivors.

Credit defaulting in the financial sector is a worldwide delinquency that has become a nightmare for this sector. The search for a solution to root out this problem remains a big challenge for academics, the financial sectors, and the governments. For instance, per the American Bankers Association's (ABC) Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin, unserviced bank cards plunged two basis points to 2.96% of all accounts between July-August 2019. This value remained below the 15-year average of 3.68%. (Per ABC, delinquency is a late payment that is 30 days or more overdue.) Though these terrifying statistics sounds like good news, the Trans Union's Industry Insights Report found that the unserviced credit card rate reached 1.81% in the third quarter of 2019, rising from 1.71% for the third quarter of 2018. These figures from the credit bureau are based on accounts that are 90 days or more overdue.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.