Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Consistency of expert judgments'

What is the relationship between judging something as good and being motivated to acton this judgment? Motivational internalism is the thesis that there is a necessaryconnection between moral judgments and motivation. Externalists typically believe that ajudgment-independent desire is needed for the moral judgment to be motivating. Tobridge the gap between internalism and externalism, a few philosophers have appealed totheories of identification-based moral judgments. This implies that although moraljudgments may not be necessarily motivating in general, it could be possible to define acertain kind of identification-based moral judgment that is necessarily motivating. HereinI will examine the role identification plays for moral motivation. I will first analyse anargument that uses an identification-incompatible moral judgment to show thatinternalism is false. I will argue that this argument is unconvincing and that identificationdoes not preclude identification-incompatible moral judgments from being motivating.The identification-based argument hence does not support that internalism is false.Second, I will argue that identification can provide the motivational force needed to makecertain identity-based moral judgments necessarily motivating. This identification-basedaccount does however, I will argue, not support internalism. Despite presenting a kind ofmoral judgment that is necessarily motivating, it is an externalist account of theconnection between moral judgments and motivation since a judgment-independentdesire is a necessary source of its motivational force.

The nature of nursing judgment in clinical practice situations remains incompletely explored. It is known that nurses perform endotracheal suctioning as part of the nursing care of critically ill children. However, the ways in which nurses judge the need for suctioning and the method used to suction are not well understood. This research study was conducted to describe the cues that expert pediatric critical care nurses use in making the judgment to suction and to describe how those cues are used in determining the timing of endotracheal suctioning. A qualitative naturalistic study was conducted in a quaternary pediatric critical care unit in Central Canada. A purposive sample of seven expert pediatric critical care nurses participated in the study. Data were collected using three methods---participant observations (field notes), think aloud (concurrent verbalizations) and semi-structured interviews (retrospective verbalizations)---as participants cared for ventilated, critically ill children. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

This research aims to develop and empirically validate an approach to using managerial judgments as a basis for competitive strategy decisions. Our premise is that by using structured elicitation methods that rely on the underlying logic of competitive market structure analysis (CMSA) models (e.g., perceived competitive similarities (PS) and forced choice (FC)), it may be possible to effectively extract and organize managers' knowledge of competitive relationships. Moreover, these judgments may be primed using competitive criterial cues such as brand image, features and usage situation. Based on psychological theories, we offer hypotheses (about how managerial judgments will be influenced by different elicitation methods and priming cues) which are tested in an experiment where subjects gained experience in a simulated market with a pre-specified structure (based on overall similarity (OS) of the products). We also test for experiential learning of this structure. The findings suggest that unaided judgments did not change as a function of outcome feedback. However, structured judgments showed significant effect of both feedback and elicitation method. Initially, OS-based structure measures received high ratings, suggesting that subjects may have recognized the 'true' structure. However, with feedback, they placed greater emphasis on the usage situation-based measure which were more concrete in their extra-experimental experience. Relative to the PS method, the FC method helped subjects articulate better that the market was partitioned on the basis of OS. Also, subjects who gave FC judgments first, provided concordant judgments when given the PS method thereafter. In contrast, subjects' judgments were more susceptible to change when the method order was reversed. Thus, the FC judgments produced both more veridical and more stable perceptions of market structure. Subject to study limitations, the findings provide a basis for incorporating even partially fallible managerial judgments in CMSA tasks (and toward development of an expert system). It shows how structured methods for eliciting such judgments can be meaningfully implemented and suggests that these methods may elicit both veridical and stable judgments of competitive relationships in a market. Moreover, the study examines the convergent validity of different methods and priming cues on managerial judgment as well as its potential biases and inconsistencies.

Робота виконана в Інституті прикладного системного аналізу Національного технічного університету України «Київський політехнічний інститут імені Ігоря Сікорського»
У дисертаційній роботі запропоновано методологію підтримки прийняття рішень, яка з використанням розробленого системного підходу дозволяє підвищити достовірність розв’язків в складних слабко структурованих системах на основі ієрархічних та мережевих моделей і включає нові та удосконалені методи: оцінювання і підвищення узгодженості матриць парних порівнянь загального виду залежно від властивостей цих матриць, розрахунку довірчих інтервалів для локальних ваг, розрахунку нечітких локальних ваг, гібридний метод розрахунку локальних та агрегованих ваг, метод комплексного оцінювання чутливості розв'язку та спосіб оцінювання реверсу рангів при використанні різних правил комбінування функцій довіри. Розроблено нові методики, засоби та система моделювання експертного оцінювання. Практичне значення одержаних результатів полягає у створенні інструментарію у вигляді системи підтримки прийняття рішень, який застосовано при розв'язанні практичних задач на замовлення міністерств і відомств України.
In the dissertation work, an important scientific and technical problem has been solved, which deals with development of mathematical and methodological support for increasing the reliability of solutions to decision analysis problems in complex weakly structured systems based on hierarchical and network models. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by the following theoretical and practical results obtained by author. Using proposed systematic approach, a new methodology of decision support is developed, which allows to increase the reliability of solutions of decision analysis problems in complex weakly structured systems on the basis of hierarchical and network models. This methodology includes the proposed and described below methods and techniques. A new method for evaluating and improving the consistency of expert judgements, which are given in a form of pairwise comparison matrix, is developed. Features of the method include an analysis of property of weak inconsistency, the presence of cycles in a pairwise comparison matrix and a search for the most inconsistent element of this matrix. The method can be applied to pairwise comparison matrices of various types, including multiplicative, additive, fuzzy and other. A Transitiv method for searching the most inconsistent elements of the matrix is proposed. A method of flows for finding the most inconsistent element of the matrix is improved by taking into account the input flow. The simulation shows that the developed Transitiv method and the method of flows are more efficient than existing methods. Usage of the proposed method of consistency evaluating and improving allows to obtain pairwise comparison matrices of acceptable quality for all elements of the model and these matrices can be used further to find local weights of model’s elements. A new method for calculating confidence intervals of local weights is developed, which, unlike others, takes into account the uncertainty of scale, expert's personal qualities such as optimism and pessimism, and does not require comparison of groups of elements with the frame. The method is based on notions of the Dempster-Schafer theory of evidence and results of computer simulation of expert's judgments. An uncertainty index of expert judgments is proposed, assuming that this uncertainty is caused by above factors. An improved method for calculating fuzzy local weights on basis of fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix is proposed, which differs from others in estimating and increasing the consistency of the matrix and taking into account properties of weak and strong order preservation on a set of calculated fuzzy weights. This method, unlike existing ones, makes it possible to determine the weak inconsistency of fuzzy matrix, to assess the acceptability of inconsistency level of fuzzy matrix for reliable local weights calculation, and to find the most inconsistent elements of the matrix using methods developed for crisp matrices. A hybrid method for calculating aggregated weights of hierarchical model elements with interdependent decision criteria has been improved, when input data for evaluation are fuzzy expert judgments. Improvement consists in using the developed more effective methods for assessment and increasing of crisp and fuzzy expert judgements consistency. A method for complex sensitivity analysis of results has been improved by taking into account sensitivity analysis of local rankings of model’s elements. In the developed method for estimating local sensitivity, intervals and indices of stability of pairwise comparison matrix elements are calculated, which retain the best decision alternative and all ranking of alternatives. Resulting stability intervals allow to find critical elements of the problem that require more careful analysis. A new technique for estimating the rank reversal is suggested, which can appear after applying combination rules of confidence functions for model’s elements. Using this technique, the Dempster, Yager, Zhang, Dubois and Prada and other combination rules were examined. Cases and features of rank reversals appearance in these rules were revealed. New techniques and tools for modeling a process of decision alternatives evaluation by an expert of high competence, expert-optimist and expert-pessimist while performing pairwise comparisons are developed. Using these techniques and tools, efficiency of proposed methods has been proved. A decision support system has been constructed on basis of proposed methods and techniques. This system has been used to solve several practical problems. Within the work with the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, critical technologies of the Ukrainian energy industry were assessed, priorities of technologies were calculated and aggregated according to hierarchical model of criteria, and on their basis the most priority technologies for implementation were identified. In the course of research work together with the Institute of Space Research, directions of the expedient use of space information for remote sensing of the Earth for geoinformation systems were evaluated and the relative demand for the space information in the national economy of Ukraine was determined. On order of the Kyiv City State Administration, social problems of the Kyiv city were estimated in terms of benefits, costs, opportunities and risks, followed by selection of priority activities for implementation and evaluation of scenarios of the transport system development. Results of the dissertation work have been introduced into the educational process of the department "Mathematical methods of system analysis" of Institute for applied system analysis of National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”.
В диссертационной работе предложена методология поддержки принятия решений, которая с использованием разработанного системного подхода позволяет повысить достоверность решений в сложных слабо структурированных системах на основе иерархических и сетевых моделей и включает новые и усовершенствованные методы: оценки и повышения согласованности матриц парных сравнений общего вида в зависимости от свойств этих матриц, расчета доверительных интервалов для локальных весов, расчета нечетких локальных весов, гибридный метод расчета локальных и агрегированных весов, метод комплексной оценки чувствительности решения, а также способ оценки реверса рангов при использовании различных правил комбинирования функций доверия. Разработаны новые методики, средства и система моделирования экспертного оценивания. Практическое значение полученных результатов заключается в создании инструментария в виде системы поддержки принятия решений, который применен при решении практических задач по заказу министерств и ведомств Украины.

Робота виконана в Інституті прикладного системного аналізу Національного технічного університету України «Київський політехнічний інститут імені Ігоря Сікорського»
У дисертаційній роботі запропоновано методологію підтримки прийняття рішень, яка з використанням розробленого системного підходу дозволяє підвищити достовірність розв’язків в складних слабко структурованих системах на основі ієрархічних та мережевих моделей і включає нові та удосконалені методи: оцінювання і підвищення узгодженості матриць парних порівнянь загального виду залежно від властивостей цих матриць, розрахунку довірчих інтервалів для локальних ваг, розрахунку нечітких локальних ваг, гібридний метод розрахунку локальних та агрегованих ваг, метод комплексного оцінювання чутливості розв'язку та спосіб оцінювання реверсу рангів при використанні різних правил комбінування функцій довіри. Розроблено нові методики, засоби та система моделювання експертного оцінювання. Практичне значення одержаних результатів полягає у створенні інструментарію у вигляді системи підтримки прийняття рішень, який застосовано при розв'язанні практичних задач на замовлення міністерств і відомств України.

No
We use the method of policy capturing to address three open-ended questions regarding how people judge the fairness of events. First, do people differ in how they judge whether a situation is fair or unfair; second, are fairness judgments stable within-person; and, third, how much insight do people have into how they make fairness judgments? To investigate these questions, we used the method of policy capturing and a representative design that samples situations as well as participants. Forty-nine employees rated the global fairness of 56 performance appraisals sampled from their own organization (N = 2,744 situations), and regression methods were used to infer their judgment policy from their choices. We found that people differed greatly in how they judged fairness but used quite consistent policies across similar situations. Participants also provided self-reports of their judgment policies, and comparisons of these self-reports with actual policies revealed limited levels of self-insight.

by Ying Kit Wong.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 144-146).
Acknowledgments
Abstract
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Characteristics of Human Commonsense Reasoning --- p.4
Chapter 1.2 --- Neural-Logic Belief Network as the Basic Inconsistency Rea- soning System --- p.7
Chapter 1.3 --- Consistency of Knowledge --- p.8
Chapter 1.4 --- Update Sequence Independence in Belief States --- p.10
Chapter 1.5 --- Lazy Consistency Reasoning --- p.12
Chapter 1.6 --- Comparison of W-Consistency with Other Systems --- p.14
Chapter 1.7 --- Integration of Different Methods in One Formalization --- p.16
Chapter 2 --- Neural-Logic Belief Network (NLBN) --- p.17
Chapter 2.1 --- Definitions --- p.17
Chapter 2.2 --- Computation Functions --- p.20
Chapter 3 --- W-Consistency Reasoning --- p.29
Chapter 3.1 --- W-Consistency --- p.30
Chapter 3.2 --- Logical Suppression --- p.33
Chapter 3.3 --- Consistency Check --- p.35
Chapter 3.4 --- Consistency Maintenance --- p.35
Chapter 3.5 --- The W-Consistency Reasoning Process --- p.41
Chapter 3.6 --- Proof of Consistency Reasoning Process Terminates Finitely and Consistent --- p.42
Chapter 4 --- Implementation --- p.46
Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.46
Chapter 4.2 --- New Features in Phase Two --- p.48
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Consistency Reasoning Function --- p.48
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Knowledge File --- p.49
Chapter 4.3 --- Inference Engine for Consistency Reasoning --- p.54
Chapter 4.4 --- Examples of using XHOPES --- p.56
Chapter 5 --- Comparison between NLBN with W-Consistency and AGM Logic --- p.63
Chapter 5.1 --- AGM Logic with Epistemic Entrenchment --- p.64
Chapter 5.1.1 --- Three Forms of Belief Change --- p.64
Chapter 5.1.2 --- Epistemic Entrenchment --- p.67
Chapter 5.2 --- Network Update Operators in NLBN vs. Belief Changesin AGM --- p.68
Chapter 5.3 --- Epistemic Entrenchment vs. Degree-of-Belief --- p.77
Chapter 5.4 --- Consistency Preservation --- p.80
Chapter 5.5 --- Classical vs. Non-classical Logical Consistency --- p.82
Chapter 5.6 --- Retraction vs. Suppression --- p.83
Chapter 5.7 --- Foundation vs. Coherence Theories --- p.84
Chapter 6 --- Comparison of W-Consistency with other Systems --- p.86
Chapter 6.1 --- G-Consistency --- p.87
Chapter 6.1.1 --- Overview of G-Consistency --- p.87
Chapter 6.1.2 --- Comparison of W-Consistency with G-Consistency --- p.88
Chapter 6.2 --- S-Consistency --- p.94
Chapter 6.2.1 --- Overview of S-Consistency --- p.94
Chapter 6.2.2 --- Comparison of W-Consistency with S-Consistency --- p.95
Chapter 6.3 --- Truth Maintenance Systems --- p.97
Chapter 6.3.1 --- Introduction of Truth Maintenance Systems --- p.97
Chapter 6.3.2 --- Comparison of TMS between W-Consistency with NLBN --- p.99
Chapter 7 --- Lazy Consistency Reasoning using W-Consistency --- p.102
Chapter 7.1 --- Proof of Lazy Characteristic of W-Consistency --- p.104
Chapter 7.2 --- Example of Lazy Consistency Reasoning --- p.112
Chapter 7.3 --- Discussion and Application --- p.117
Chapter 8 --- Integration of Different Consistency Reasoning Methods --- p.120
Chapter 8.1 --- Mixing W-Consistency and G-Consistency into a NLBN --- p.121
Chapter 8.2 --- Using a NLBN for Truth Maintenance --- p.129
Chapter 8.2.1 --- TMS's Truth Maintenance Strategy --- p.129
Chapter 8.2.2 --- Consistency Reasoning style of NLBN --- p.134
Chapter 8.2.3 --- Using NLBN for TMS-style Truth Maintenance --- p.136
Chapter 8.2.4 --- Discussion --- p.140
Chapter 9 --- Conclusion --- p.143
Chapter A --- Test Case for Merging Knowledge Bases Using XHOPES --- p.150

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1986.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-60).

碩士
國立臺南大學
教育學系測驗統計碩博士班
104
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the consistency of moral judgments made from different perspectives. The study assessed whether being unsituated or situated in care v. justice, utilitarian v. justice, and convention v. justice dilemmas would make any difference in the likelihood of making care, utilitarian, and conventional decisions respectively. The subjects consist of 303 college and graduate students. The results obtained from the employment of ANOVA indicated that in general when situated in the positions of resource distributors, subjects tended to be more likely to make care decisions to partially favor to their own close ingroup members than when they were in the positions of unsituated and impartial observers or situated in the positions of other stakeholders (not resource distributors) in the scenario of the dilemma. In addition, when situated in the positions of decision makers with high rank, subjects tended to make utilitarian (or conventional) decisions to satisfy the collective utility of the majority (or follow the established conventions) in the scenario. The results substantially support the existence of the inconsistency of moral judgments made from different perspectives.

碩士
國立臺灣師範大學
工業教育研究所
99
The study aimed to take the weight of indicators to analyze the consistency of evaluators’ professional judgments, and further establish the qualifications and professional competency guidelines for evaluators’ recruitment. Specifically, the essences of the evaluation and the effects of evaluators’ professional judgments on evaluation were discussed first. Then, the guidelines of professional competency to evaluators from the institutes or the associations in USA, England, Australia and Canada were also analyzed and integrated. And finally, according to the literature reviews, the factors which influenced the evaluators’ professional judgments on evaluation were found out. A total of 29 evaluators from vocational high school evaluation in 2008-2010 participated in this study. A questionnaire was designed with the concepts of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by the researcher to reach the study purposes. Based on the quantitative and qualitative data analysis, the findings of the study were summarized as follows: (1) The evaluators who have had the experience of teaching in the vocational high schools or teaching vocational related subjects are more consistency on the judgments; (2) The qualifications of evaluators’ recruitment should take the related experiences in vocational high school into consideration; (3) The professional competency of evaluators have involved seven key items. The findings of the study hoped to establish and maintain professional credibility of evaluation.

This study investigates the usability of the South African Super 14 Rugby franchise web sites. Web site usability is a measure of a web site user’s experience when visiting a web site. A web site user’s experience will determine how well a web site’s goals are achieved. The relevant web site goals are, having as many visitors as possible, both unique visitors and repeat visitors, and ensuring that those visitors stay on the web site for as long as possible. This study uses data generation method triangulation to enhance the validity of the findings. The data generation methods are an e-mail questionnaire survey and an expert group consensus method called the Delphi Method. This study shows that within each web site and across all five web sites, there is poor usability consistency. Management guidelines and recommendations for improvements to these web sites are presented, so that the web site goals can be achieved.
Computer Science
M.Sc. (Information Systems)

Temos como objetivo estudar as consequências após a intenção de agir moralmente. Por um lado, a investigação tem demonstrado que ações morais anteriores são compensadas com atos imorais subsequentes, efeito denominado por licença moral. Por outro lado, a investigação tem demonstrado que ações morais anteriores motivam atos morais subsequentes, efeito denominado por consistência moral. Estes dois efeitos são explicados pelo aumento do autoconceito moral, ou seja, pela autoperceção de maior moralidade. Pretendemos contrastar estes dois efeitos ao analisar de que forma uma ação altruísta inicial tem impacto em julgamentos de infidelidade. Em dois estudos experimentais, metade dos participantes imaginaram envolver-se em trabalho comunitário (condição de altruísmo), enquanto que aos restantes tal não foi pedido (condição de controlo). Os resultados mostraram que os participantes da condição de altruísmo reportaram atitudes mais desfavoráveis face à infidelidade, efeito mediado pelo aumento do autoconceito moral (Estudos 1 e 2). Tais resultados suportam o efeito de consistência moral. No Estudo 2 foi ainda pedido aos participantes para julgarem o quão indicativo de infidelidade consideravam falar (cenário ambíguo) ou beijar (cenário explícito) uma pessoa atraente do outro sexo. Os resultados mostraram que na condição de altruísmo os participantes julgaram o cenário ambíguo, mas não o cenário explícito, como menos indicativo de infidelidade. Mais uma vez, este efeito foi mediado pelo aumento do autoconceito moral. Tal dá suporte ao efeito de licença moral. Esta investigação sugere diferenças nos efeitos da moralidade quando as pessoas formam julgamentos referentes a si mesmas ou referentes a outras pessoas.
We aim to study the consequences after intending to act morally. On the one hand, research has shown that a previous moral act lead to subsequent immoral acts – defined as the moral licensing effect. On the other hand, research has shown that a previous moral act lead to subsequent moral acts – defined as the moral consistency effect. Both effects have been explained by an increase of moral self-concept, that is, the self-perception of greater morality. We aim to contrast these two effects by analyzing how an initial altruistic act influences infidelity judgments. In two experiments, half of the participants were asked to image being involved in community work (altruism condition), whereas the remaining were not asked to do so (control condition). Results showed that participants in the altruism condition reported more unfavorable attitudes towards infidelity, and that this effect was mediated by an increased moral self-concept (Studies 1 and 2). This supports a moral consistency effect. In Study 2 participants were also asked to judge how indicative of infidelity they considered to be talking (ambiguous scenario) or kissing (explicit scenario) an attractive person of the other sex. Results showed that participants in the altruism condition judge the ambiguous scenario, but not of the explicit scenario, as less indicative of infidelity. Again, this effect was mediated by an increased moral self-concept. This supports a moral licensing effect. This research suggests differences in the effects of morality when people form judgments about themselves or about other people.