Academic literature on the topic 'Commercial UAS operations'

Interest in the civilian applications of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) has been growing worldwide, especially in government and commercial tasks such as surveillance, search and rescue, inspection of infrastructure, agriculture, mining, and mapping. Likewise, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) has been witnessing a growing interest and application of commercial and non-commercial UAS operations. However, there is little assessment for the growth of the UAS market nor is there characterisation of UAS-based activities since the pertinent regulations established in 2016. This study seeks to formally identify the emerging UAS landscape in T&T during the period 2015 to 2019. As such, this study maps and characterises the spatial and temporal patterns of UAS distribution, then appraises the various categories for the existing operations. To achieve these goals, this study utilised qualitative and quantitative techniques of Geoinformatics. The intent for this study is to provide a perspective on the growth and the implications of the UAS industry in T&T, and to guide strategic planning among organisations with a stake in the emergence of UAS into civil airspace.

Existing counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) defensive mechanisms rely heavily on radio frequency (RF) jamming techniques that require a large amount of energy to operate. The effects of RF jamming result in undesirable consequences, such as the jamming of other nearby friendly radio devices as well as the increase in RF footprint for local operators. Current cybersecurity analysis of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) UASs have revealed multiple vulnerabilities that give rise to opportunities to conduct C-UAS operations in the cyber domain. This is achieved by performing cyber-attacks on adversarial UASs through hijacking the device-specific communication’s link on a narrow RF band and without the need for broad-spectrum RF energy bursts during C-UAS operations, which can result in lower energy usage to accomplish the same outcome. This article validates the cyber-attack C-UAS (CyC-UAS) concept through reviewing recent C-UAS operational experimental scenarios and conducting analysis on the collected data. Then, a simulation model of a defense facility is constructed to analyze and validate specific mission scenarios of interest and several proposed concepts of operation. A comparison of the energy requirements between CyC-UAS and existing C-UAS techniques is performed to assess energy efficiency and trade-offs of different C-UAS approaches. In this article, the comparison of energy requirements between the CyC-UAS prototype and existing C-UAS products that utilize RF jamming methods reveals that CyC-UAS achieves significant energy savings while not affecting other telecommunication devices operating at the same frequencies. While both the C-UAS techniques adopt the denial-of-service strategy, the CyC-UAS is able to achieve the same mission by consuming much less energy. Therefore, the CyC-UAS concept shows promise as a new, lower energy, and lower collateral damage approach to defending against UAS.

Extant literature suggests minimal research on the reliability of Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components used in fabricating non-military Unmanned Aerial System (UAS). Stochastic failures of components during operational cycles over time poses a safety hazard to flight operations. The purpose of the study was to critically assess the operational performance standards (reliability) of a laboratory designed UAS component test-bed operated using real-world data collected from a Boeing Scan Eagle® UAS aileron servo unit via a flight data recorder. The study hypothesized that the test-bed’s reliability, in terms of a measured encoder output of commanded servo positions, will not be significantly different after double and triple periods of time for continuous operations compared to a base-line mean position. Results suggested that test-bed operated within reliability criteria for a baseline period but there were significant differences in the mean of the reliability after the operational cycles were doubled and tripled in time. This study adds to paucity of extant research on UAS COTS reliability and recommends further studies on reliability of other small UAS components within periods of time.

In this article Author describes the potential of Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) that are flying Beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS). There are countless commercial applications of BVLOS UAS. Author provides an insight of the main challenges that need to be addressed in order to make BVLOS UAS operations safe and to integrate them into air traffic.

This Comment aims to show that current regulation, or more precisely non-regulation of commercial UAS should be modified, and operators should be allowed to conduct commercial operations without subjecting UAS to the high standards of other “aircraft.” Per Congress’s mandate, the FAA should immediately create and enforce practically sound standards for small-scale, commercial UAS that operate inside the NAS while avoiding unnecessary and costly administrative burdens. Congress should modify the currently voluntary standards, instead of mandating that operators adhere to specific commercial use guidelines without requiring an arduous approval process for commercial flight, such as the current Special Airworthiness Certificate and Section 333 exemption. This Comment will not address the issues facing larger, interstate drones that will operate outside of the visual sight or immediate area of the operator.

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs), which have become a key tool in remote sensing in recent years, have also rapidly entered the practice of Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations (AECO). This paper presents an application study of a methodology for monitoring construction progress and quality using real-time data from a commercial building during the execution phase and the results of an analysis of the costs and benefits of monitoring construction progress and quality with and without a UAS. The methodology used consists of three parts: (1) automated data collection at the construction site, (2) data processing, in which the collected data are processed to generate the outputs necessary for the data analysis, and (3) data analysis to monitor construction progress and quality. The method is based on the detection of structural elements, combined with four principles: the sectional approach, the calculation of the concrete volume, the height-distance measurement, and the detection of defects by visual comparisons. The cost-benefit analysis considers three cases: monitoring of progress (1) by the construction company using the UAS, (2) by external contractors using the UAS, and (3) by the construction company without using the UAS. We show that the in-house operation of the UAS is associated with medium costs. However, a return on investment can be achieved quickly if the strategy for the operation of the UAS is clearly defined. In summary, the use of a UAS for the automated monitoring of the construction progress and quality of commercial buildings is practicable, which can quickly lead to a return on investment. We also show that there is great potential for further improvements.

To govern and ensure the safety of increasing drone operations, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has defined three risk-based categories of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations. A large part of commercial UAS operations fall into the Specific category, which includes operations with medium risk that require an authority approval. One possible way to gain approval for these operations is the light UAS operator certificate (LUC) awarded by a national aviation authority. It offers organisations the privilege to assess and approve operations without applying for authorisation from an authority. However, only general information regarding the LUC is available in the European regulatory publications. Thus, there is currently a lack of detailed guidelines and practical information about the process and requirements for acquiring LUC status. This paper describes the development of a LUC application process model following a design science research approach. The model supports organisations to assess their LUC capabilities, develop their organisation, create the documentation to fulfil relevant requirements, and to apply for the certificate. Finally, the results of a case study where the process model was applied are presented.

Field testing small unmanned air systems (UAS) in marine oil spill response exercises began in 2006. Soon afterward there were multiple credible examples where uas's could complement the traditional roles which manned aircraft filled for oil spill observation. Testing stopped abruptly in 2007 when the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration changed rules for the commercial use of uas's. Testing resumed in 2013 after the U.S. Congress mandated that the FAA finalize operating rules for uas commercial use. Exercise tests validated oil spill observation by uas's when an experienced aerial oil spill observer confirmed that properly equipped uas platforms and cameras could offer results equal to manned aircraft flights. Today there are a much wider variety of uas's and increasingly more capable sensors which can be utilized for creating highly detailed maps or data collection for geographic information system applications such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA). Radio technology advances have also improved the ability to transfer video/data over greater distance and faster speeds than initial tests. Mobile ad hoc networks of multiple radios can transfer uas data streams beyond line of sight and connect with the internet for even broader distribution. This same network can also be used by responders in the field to exchange video, voice and location data and be linked real time with command post map displays and data feeds creating a true common operating picture across the entire response effort. From an organizational perspective, uas's are not discussed in the 2014 USCG Incident Management Handbook. Despite this however, their activities need coordinated with manned aircraft through Air Operations for regulations and safety. Staging them at airports serves little purpose given their flexibility and small size. Better utilization would be achieved placing the uas and operators near the command posts or at staging sites alongside the boats or vehicles they would work from. Their unique differences would also support creating a UAS Group Supervisor in Air Operations to clarify their requirements and tasking. The Situation Unit would typically be the best central receiving point for incoming data and from there aerial observers and data specialists can route video / data to operations, gis users and display operators managing the common operating picture. Additional topics for final presentation:*See and avoid capabilities*Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) transmitters/receivers*Night flights approval*New operator regulations not requiring pilot's license

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats pose many challenges to address in terms of reconnaissance, detection, personnel protection and countermeasures comprising a common set of techniques and procedures that fit in the concept of “all hazard” approach. The scientific and technological developments that led to the use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in an ubiquitous manner, enables its integration in CBRN operations, as sensors platforms for detection. In this scope, the GammaEx project targets to validate the concepts of operation using a specifically developed UAS with ATmosphères EXplosives (ATEX) compliance, equipped with chemical and radiological sensors for detection in CBRN scenarios. This paper aims to review the main concepts and challenges involving the sensors integration in UAS for specific CBRN environments considering the ATEX compliance, followed by the GammaEx project description and the presentation of the preliminary results of the laboratory and field comparative assays concerning the specifically developed sensors for the project and the commercial of the shelf sensors, follow on activities and future trends.

HighlightsThe FAA has used two exemptions (17261 and 18009) as precedents for approval of numerous agricultural operations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS).While many operators have received exemptions, a significant portion have not received an agricultural aircraft operator certificate (AAOC), despite the need for both to operate UAS in agricultural operations.Operators who have both an exemption and an AAOC tend to be clustered in geographic areas, with many states without a single such operator.Abstract. Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have seen rapid growth in many industries in the U.S. since the introduction of small UAS regulations (14 CFR § 107). However, adoption of UAS for agricultural aerial application has been limited. Two landmark regulatory exemptions by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have laid the foundation for commercial agricultural aerial application with UAS. Since the initial introduction of these exemptions, the pace of new exemptions for agricultural aerial application with UAS has remained steady. By the end of 2019, 64 operators had received exemptions in which the FAA cited one of the two landmark exemptions as a precedent. This study analyzed these exemptions to determine geographic distribution, aircraft manufacturer, number of employees, and time to operator certification. Results indicate that less than half of operators who received an exemption from the FAA became certified for aerial application. Additionally, certified operators were not evenly distributed throughout the U.S. despite the broader distribution of exemption holders. Two UAS manufacturers dominated the market, with over 80% of exemptions requesting UAS from one or both manufacturers. While regulatory hurdles for agricultural aerial application with UAS have been substantially reduced through the introduction of standardized exemptions, this has not resulted in the anticipated influx of certified operators. There are additional impediments preventing operator certification, including technological limitations of currently available UAS, which need to be addressed to improve the rate of UAS integration into agricultural aerial application. Keywords: Chemical applications, Drone, Precision agriculture, UAS, UAV, Unmanned aerial vehicle, Unmanned aircraft systems.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-91).
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the evolution of U.S. commercial domestic aircraft operations from 1991 to 2010 and describe the implications for future U.S. commercial domestic fleets. Using data collected from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, we analyze 110 different aircraft types from 145 airlines operating U.S. commercial domestic service between 1991 and 2010. We classify the aircraft analyzed into four categories: turboprop, regional jet, narrow-body, and wide-body. Our study consists of three parts. First, we compare the four aircraft classes and explore trends in available seat miles, revenue passenger miles, load factor, aircraft departures, average stage length, aircraft utilization, seat capacity, daily departures per aircraft, aircraft ground time, and fuel burn. Second, we examine each of the aircraft classes in detail and provide insights on specific aircraft types. Finally, we compare product offerings from competing aircraft manufacturers in both the regional jet and narrow-body aircraft classes. The results indicate that more than 150 wide-body aircraft have been shifted from the U.S. commercial domestic market to international service while narrow-body stage lengths have increased 50% over the 20 year period analyzed. In addition, the introduction of more than 1,390 regional jets in the late 1990s and 2000s allowed airlines to expand hub operations and increase frequency on routes between major cities. A 10% decline in the turboprop fleet coupled with the lack of turboprop replacement aircraft in the 30 to 50-seat category suggest a potential for future reductions in air service to some smaller cities. Lastly, increasing fuel prices threaten the growth of the U.S. commercial domestic fleet in the upcoming decade and could potentially cause a significant number of aircraft to be no longer economically viable.
by Alexander Andrew Wulz.
S.M.

This study researches a rapidly growing area of interest in the financial services industry, that is,operational hsk management, with special focus on the mitigation phase. Operational risk management has accelerated in importance in the financial services over the last two decades for many reasons, not least of which is the well-known catastrophic failure of large banks such as BCCI, Barings and Indymac, as well as the recent Global Financial Crisis. One of the main drivers behind such bank failures was the failure of the banks' managements to manage effectively and efficiently their operational risk exposure. The focus of this study is operational risk mitigation in the United Arab Emirates Commercial banking industry. A controversial issue with operational risk was deciding on an agreed and accepted definition within the financial services industry. It has been defined by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as "the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. This definition includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputational risk." This definition captures a wide spectrum of risk categories such as fraud risks, people risks, legal risks and compliance risks, to name a few. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a Committee of banking supervisory authorities established by the central bank Governors of the Group often countries in 1974, published in June 2006 a document called the "International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards - A Revised Framework Comprehensive Version" known as Basel II Accord, which requires banks, among many other things, to sustain capital adequacy to cover their operational risk exposures. This Accord was the result of a number of consultative documents issued by the same Committee which focused increasing attention on the need for operational risk adequate and efficient management. Bank managements are facing increasing pressure to ensure that operational risk exposures are being managed effectively and efficiently. This extended the main momentum for the study, being the first independently sponsored study of how the UAE commercial banks have developed their operational risk management frameworks as a basis for mitigating the range of operational risk exposures they encounter. The operational risks that prompted the current Financial Crisis and how they were mitigated in the context of the UAE commercial banks gave further momentum to the research. The study addresses the various key players in operational risk management and is, therefore, interdisciplinary. The foundations from which the field work was undertaken were based on theoretical propositions in the area of decision making since the process of mitigating an operational risk is rooted in making a decision. Multiple case studies were used in the design for the research to answer the research question and establish the practices in operational risk mitigation in the UAE commercial banking industry. Leading UAE commercial banks were carefully chosen as representatives of this industry. The findings of the research are in line with the conclusions of Basel Commiltee on Banking Supervision that the main responsibility for operational risk management, and therefore mitigation, is vested in operational managers. The analysis demonstrates that (hey do not do this independently, but are supported by other experienced people in this field. A model and check-lists of operational risk management, and therefore mitigation, is proposed demonstrating the complexity of the whole process due to the nature and the scale of operational risks. The thesis concludes by discussing some further potential research suggestions in this ever-growing area of interest.

Thesis (M.S. in Management) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1997.
"December 1997." Thesis advisor(s): David G. Brown, Donald R. Eaton. Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-114). Also available online.

Finding ways to objectively measure welfare within different sectors of the beef industry is necessary to continually improve cattle welfare from birth to slaughter. The first objective of Study 1 was to benchmark cow-calf producer perspectives on management strategies and challenges that ultimately affect cattle welfare on ranches in the United States. The second objective of Study 1 was to quantify how producers are marketing their calf crop, their priorities when selecting replacements, and if producers saw value in handling and care guidelines. A total of 1,414 responses from cow-calf producers in 44 states were collected through a survey done in partnership with BEEF Magazine. Thirty questions were asked of producers to gather demographic information, producers’ current handling and health management practices, and how they prioritized industry challenges. As well as establish at what age and through what avenue producers are marketing their calf crop, and gauge producer perspectives on a quality assessment outlining handling and care guidelines.

After analyses of producer responses, it was concluded that the frequency of management methods and decisions are impacted by age, operation size, location, and BQA certification. A higher percentage of respondents who were BQA certified used electronic eartags, followed by freeze branding. A higher percentage of respondents not BQA certified used basic eartags and hot branding. 74.5% of respondents were preconditioning their calf crop. A higher percentage of respondents were preconditioning their calf crop that were BQA certified, than those who were not BQA certified. The most important beef industry challenge identified was cow-calf health and the biggest challenge to producer’s own operation was identified as land availability/price. The most important animal health issues on producers’ operations were identified as Bovine Respiratory Disease, flies, Pinkeye, and reproductive health. By producer age, calf/neonate health was identified as the biggest challenge for respondents under the age of 30. Respondents age 55-70 responded that Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD)/regulations was more of a challenge than any other age group. Respondents with 50 head or less or more than 1,000 head more frequently retained their calf crop through finishing and respondents with 51 to 200 head and 201 head to 500 head more frequently backgrounded and then sold their calf crop. 13.5% of respondents answered yes, a veterinarian had offered to administer a drug for pain management when castrating or dehorning. Of those 13.5% who responded yes pain management had been offered, 54.55% of respondents chose to use a pain relief method. A higher percentage of producers that precondition also indicated that they use a pain relief method when castrating or dehorning more frequently, though it was still a low percentage. Overall, 46.3% of respondents saw value in handling and care guidelines and 54.9% of respondents saw value in a program including source and age verification, a vaccination plan, and handling and care guidelines. Respondents who were BQA certified, had a beef cow inventory of 501 to 1,000 head, who preconditioned their calves and backgrounded them before selling, and who lived in the West more frequently saw value in a quality assessment outlining handling and care guidelines.

The objective of Study 2 was to examine the effects of captive bolt length and breed type on post-stun leg activity in cattle. A total of 2,850 Holstein (HOL) and non-Holstein British/Continental bred (NHOL) steers and heifers were observed post-stunning at a large commercial slaughter facility. A penetrating pneumatic captive bolt stunner was used with three different bolt lengths: CON, 15.24 cm; MED, 16.51 cm; and LON, 17.78 cm. Hind limb kicking, forelimb activity, take away belt stops, carcass swing and number of knife sticks during exsanguination were recorded for each animal from video recording. Hind limb and forelimb kicks observed ranged from 0 to 25 and 0 to 8, respectively. A significant main effect of treatment, breed type and an interaction between treatment and breed type on hind limb activity was found. Analysis of post-stun hind limb and forelimb activity indicated that increasing pneumatic captive bolt length does not decrease post-stun leg activity but alternatively can increase kicking when using the longest bolt tested in particular types of cattle, i.e. Holsteins. Other parameters associated with the shackling and hoisting process were impacted by breed type as well. There was a higher percentage of cattle experiencing take away belt stops and carcass swing in HOL as compared with NHOL. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.)

碩士
中原大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
105
This paper employs the two-stage approach to evaluate the banks’ performance persistence, operational risk (core capital ratio, price cost margin) and the demand management policies (monetary policy, fiscal policy) to investigate the nonlinear uncertainty effect. In the first stage, the banks’ performance was evaluated by slack-based super efficiency model, which describes the operating characteristics of banks’ multiple input-outputs. The nonlinear effect was estimated by panel smooth transition regression model with the transition variable of the U.S. leading indicator. The empirical result shows four useful results when leading indicator (LI) is below the threshold (0.9593): Firstly, the banks will face the operating recession if they are trying to increase their monopoly power in the market. The recovery is ineffective, even though the LI is higher than the threshold. Secondly, maintaining the core capital ratio results in decline of operating performance, but the negative impact is gradually improved while the economy is picking up. Thirdly, decreasing the fund rate may help improve the banks'' performance. However, the contribution is diminished, inch by inch, as the LI exceed the threshold. Finally, the national debt leads to increasing the long-term interest rate, which may help improve banks’ efficiency; however, the contribution is ineffective when economic is warming up. The policy suggestions, in our research, are including: 1.Maintaining the competitive financial environment may help the banks to improve their operating efficiency. 2. Formulating the flexible leverage ratio, in the different business cycle stage, could reduce the negative effect on banks. 3. Ideating a solution to the banks’ dilemma such as the higher cost of outside financing while maintaining the leverage ratio during the depression. 4. When the economy is in rescission, the quantitative easing monetary (fiscal) policy lead to decreasing (increasing) the short (long) term interest, which may help improve the banks’ efficiency.

Abstract Fixed wing and multirotor UAVs are common in the field of robotics. Solutions for simulation and control of these vehicles are ubiquitous. This is not the case for airships, a simulation of which needs to address unique properties, i) dynamic deformation in response to aerodynamic and control forces, ii) high susceptibility to wind and turbulence at low airspeed, iii) high variability in airship designs regarding placement, direction and vectoring of thrusters and control surfaces. We present a flexible framework for modeling, simulation and control of airships. It is based on Robot operating system (ROS), simulation environment (Gazebo) and commercial off the shelf (COTS) electronics, all of which are open source. Based on simulated wind and deformation, we predict substantial effects on controllability which are verified in real-world flight experiments. All our code is shared as open source, for the benefit of the community and to facilitate lighter-than-air vehicle (LTAV) research. (Source code: https://github.com/robot-perception-group/airship_simulation.)

The future looks bright for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Their ability to carry sophisticated imaging equipment attached to lightweight vehicles, to hover in position despite incremental weather conditions, to fly simple missions, and takeoff and land automatically, combined with their comparatively (compared to manned aircraft) lower investment and operational costs has driven a paradigm shift in the history of air transport. This chapter is organized around six themes that underscore the current discourse regarding the future of UAVs in civilian commercial operations, as well as highlighting the discussions of the previous chapters regarding policy and certification, technology, training, social and economic forces, air cargo, and the effect of UAVs on other sectors of the air transport industry.

The future looks bright for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Their ability to carry sophisticated imaging equipment attached to lightweight vehicles, to hover in position despite incremental weather conditions, to fly simple missions, and takeoff and land automatically, combined with their comparatively (compared to manned aircraft) lower investment and operational costs has driven a paradigm shift in the history of air transport. This chapter is organized around six themes that underscore the current discourse regarding the future of UAVs in civilian commercial operations, as well as highlighting the discussions of the previous chapters regarding policy and certification, technology, training, social and economic forces, air cargo, and the effect of UAVs on other sectors of the air transport industry.

The notion of using drones for commercial purposes has evolved in the past 5 years from the initial “boom” of excitement around this, somewhat of a novelty and curiosity, to more calculated and sophisticated use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), or drones. In the hands of true professionals, drones can offer highly efficient and profitable solutions for industrial, and commercial inspections and other data capturing tasks. The appetite for safe and efficient collection of data is a changing face of safety cultures and how teams and individuals apply airmanship principles, and how inspection crew and UAS crew interact. UAS are no longer viewed as novelty or useful addition to the inspectors' “toolbox,” but as an integrated part of safety critical system. While there is much to be learned from tradition manned aviation, UAS pilots are confronted with different task priorities in order to effectively “aviate,” and therefore, like the changing face of airmanship and safety culture, to “aviate” emerges has having different attributes when compared to manned aviation.

The latest decade witness an unprecedented development of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), as well as for the infrastructure necessary to integrate these items into the societal life. There are several millions of UAVs ranging from large size for military applications, to small dimensions used for commercial purpose and all of them are waiting for the moment when our society would be able to integrate them in a controlled manner in our life. This chapter presents several possible technologies to unique identify the UAVs and thus to create the proper environment for proper register and monitor them.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are present in our lives, and although they are mostly connected to military purposes, they are becoming more present in the commercial and civilian sector. Possible applications of UAVs in the commercial and civilian sector will open new possibilities for further research and development of UAVs. This movement can bring new investment and new jobs, but at the same time, it will influence the way some activities are being done now. The use of UAVs brings savings in the production cycles and improve current operations in various industrial sectors. The chapter gives a definition and explains different types and potential applications of unmanned aerial vehicles in the word as well as the potential economic impact of their development and use. In the second part, the chapter analyzes the application of drones in Turkey and Croatia. Although different in terms of their size and the number of inhabitants, both countries are at the same level in relation to UAV application. Applications in both countries are compared, and after that, a conclusion is drawn.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are present in our lives, and although they are mostly connected to military purposes, they are becoming more present in the commercial and civilian sector. Possible applications of UAVs in the commercial and civilian sector will open new possibilities for further research and development of UAVs. This movement can bring new investment and new jobs, but at the same time, it will influence the way some activities are being done now. The use of UAVs brings savings in the production cycles and improve current operations in various industrial sectors. The chapter gives a definition and explains different types and potential applications of unmanned aerial vehicles in the word as well as the potential economic impact of their development and use. In the second part, the chapter analyzes the application of drones in Turkey and Croatia. Although different in terms of their size and the number of inhabitants, both countries are at the same level in relation to UAV application. Applications in both countries are compared, and after that, a conclusion is drawn.

Franchising as a global growth strategy, especially in emerging markets, is gaining its popularity. For example, the U.S. Commercial Service estimated that China, having over 2,600 brands with 200,000 franchised retail stores in over 80 sectors, is now the largest franchise market in the world. The popularity of franchising continues to increase, as we witness an emergence of a new e-business model, Netchising, which is the combination power of the Internet for global demand-and-supply processes and the international franchising arrangement for local responsiveness. The essence of franchising lies in managing the good relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. In this paper, we showed how e-business and analytics strategy plays an important role in growing and nurturing such a good relationship. Specifically, we discussed: managing the franchisor/franchisee relationship, harnessing the e-business strategy with aligning the e-business strategy with application service providers, an attention-based framework for franchisee training and how big data and business analytics can be used to implement the attention-based framework.

When President Kananjar “Kan” Shivaram Shetty bought the paint business Omega Industries in 2000, little did he know it would grow into a leading global company at the forefront of innovation with commercial and industrial coatings and paintings. At the time, Omega Industries had been operating at a loss of $200,000. However, it was Kan's faith in the business and willingness to learn the secrets of his trade that resulted in Omega Industries substantially expanding their operations through the acquisition with Apco Coatings, securing major contracts with the government and entering new profitable sectors. Today, the company has 200-250 project-based staff across Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Malaysia, UAE, and Texas in the United States and has manufactured 600 different products. This chapter dives into Kan's background, the business challenges he faced, and how he was able to accelerate Omega Industries' growth into a global innovative company.

Abstract With technological development and the wide application range of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the regulation of UAV altitude limits in many countries is further alleviated, and the problem of UAV noise pollution has emerged with the recent advent of urban air mobility (UAM) and personal air vehicle (PAV) markets. In this study, one typical propeller, the T-motor 15 × 5 propeller, was analyzed by use of the commercial CFD software, ANSYS FLUENT V19.3. The effects of gravity and convection were analyzed to determine the noise characteristics at altitude using the FW-H equation. A high-altitude drone, which operates at heights from 0 to 10 km with 1,000 to 5,000 revolutions per minute, was analyzed using the steady-state k-ω SST turbulence model. And using the steady-state data to initialize values, an unsteady analysis was performed with the LES turbulence model. The time step was divided based on the 1-degree rotational time, and the velocity residual on each axis was calculated until a value of 10−7 or less was achieved and there was no fluctuation of thrust, at which point it was considered converged. The CFD results were validated with the experimental results for thrust and their results show that the maximum error was 8.64%. The overall sound pressure level was calculated, and noise characteristics in the audible frequency range according to receiver points were also compared. Through this study, thrust and noise data according to altitude were provided. The aerodynamic and aeroacoustic characteristics at high-altitudes, which are generally difficult to measure by experiment, are also presented. Therefore, the appropriate operating altitudes and rotational speeds will be presented through the aeroacoustics analysis corresponding to operational altitude, and the basic research data can then be applied to upcoming unmanned aircraft system (UAS) market.

Until recently the cost of fuel cells for terrestrial applications was prohibitive. Recently, several companies have begun developing high-performance, long-life and cost-effective fuel cell systems, and commercial units are now becoming available for stationary power generation. These systems can often be operated in conjunction with other energy systems to increase overall operational efficiency. A recent technology demonstration project at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette involved the installation, operation and analysis of a fuel cell and a desiccant dehumidification system, which is considered a good combination for the hot, humid climate of the U.S. Gulf coast. The three-year project involved technology assessment, hardware selection and procurement, installation, and operation of the two systems, followed by a performance analysis. The results were reported in a regional symposium. This paper describes the project, focusing on system operation and the results obtained, and predicts future possibilities for integrated energy systems of this type.

A blast furnace is the predominant iron-producing process in the U.S. It is widely believed that the blast furnace hearth refractory is the most dominant factor affecting the campaign life of a blast furnace. The hearth, where the liquid metal is collected, is made of carbon bricks. Cooling water is normally applied to the outside wall of the hearth. Wear of the carbon refractory occurs primarily because of erosion, which is related to the operating conditions of the hearth, such as the liquid flow in the hearth and the heat duty to the walls. Evaluation of fluid flow, heat transfer, and erosion patterns in the hearth are critical to the extension of the campaign life of a blast furnace, leading to the increase of productivity and saving of costs significantly. Advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling techniques make it possible for providing detailed information on furnace conditions and parametric effects on performance. In this research, the blast furnace No. 13 at U.S Steel has been simulated using a comprehensive CFD model. The model was validated using the temperatures measured by thermocouples in the wall refractories of the furnace. The effects of cooling water on the temperature distributions as well as erosion patterns were evaluated. The results provide useful information for the furnace operations.

Abstract Nigeria is the 2nd biggest natural gas producer in Africa, with much of it exported as LNG, some re-injected while a small fraction serves the domestic market. The volume supplied to the domestic market plays an outsized role in the energy mix and economy of Nigeria with over 90% supplied to thermal power plants and industrial clusters. As huge upstream gas projects continue to take Final Investment Decision, pipeline takeaway capacity grows and demand increases, the dependence on natural gas and preponderance in the energy mix will likely persist. Natural gas is the present and future of Nigeria's energy needs. The domestic gas industry is evolving but has been fraught with challenges. Oil and gas infrastructure are often disrupted and production shut-in, mostly triggered by infrastructure unavailablity, environmental concerns and prioritisation of hydro power generation during River Niger's white and black floods, all of which come at a cost to upstream producers. Gas producers are often compelled to curtail production of gas plants (associated and non-associated) to avoid environmental disasters and prohibitive gas flare penalties. Can underground gas storage (UGS) be an opportunity for gas producers to guarantee continued operations during disruptions and provide buffer for national strategic benefits? This paper seeks to explore the potential technical and economic dynamics of underground natural gas storage in Nigeria in the context of extant technical regulations, seasonal demand variations, gas flare penalties and local operating environment. The paper presents types of underground storages and recommends the most suitable, considers options for optimal location of UGS in Nigeria and undertakes an economic evaluation of a UGS project. The findings are further presented alongside the critical technical, regulatory and fiscal factors that may facilitate future investments and growth of underground gas storage in Nigeria.

As part of the campaign to increase readiness in northern regions, a near commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution was identified for the High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV); and used to assess the suitability of commercially available winter tires for operational deployment. Initial performance evaluations conducted during the winters of 2020 and 2021 demonstrated and quantified significant improvements to traction and handling on a variety of winter surfaces. User feedback from United States Army Alaska (USARAK) Soldiers confirmed these results in an operational environment. Results of this study provide new winter tire specifications for the Army and justify the procurement of a HMMWV winter tire for improved safety and capability for US Soldier and vehicle fleet needs. The data and Soldier evaluations support attaining a National Stock Number (NSN) and provide data to develop models of winter vehicle performance that include the impact of winter tires and chains. This work also paves the way for future development and procurement of winter tires for vehicles where COTS solutions are unavailable. The motivation is to provide Soldiers with state-of-the-art winter tires to increase safety, capability, and operational compatibility with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partners in the European Theater of Operations, and mobility superiority in all environments.

A new, commercially available, field-portable water sensor was evaluated for efficacy during operation and compatibility with current Environmental Toolkit for Expeditionary Operations (ETEO) software. The ETEO provides sensors to Soldiers to rapidly identify and quantify environmental contamination in soil, air, and water at potential new base sites during initial reconnaissance to ensure safety and minimize unnecessary remediation efforts by the Army. In addition to streamlined environmental baseline survey (EBS) reporting, the ETEO can provide rapid analysis of potential environmental contamination to support various Military applications. The Hanna Instruments HI9829 multiparameter water meter was selected following a survey of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies and analyzed by researchers from the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) for inclusion in the ETEO design since it can rapidly and accurately measure 14 different properties. Usability tests were conducted with researchers unfamiliar with the technology, and a set of standard operating procedures (SOPs) were developed to operate the device. The software for the tool was successfully integrated into the ETEO system for rapid data analysis. The HI9829 has been demonstrated in various scenarios at ERDC and other locations; including Ft. Leonard Wood, MO, at which several visitors reviewed the operation of the equipment and other ETEO technologies. The Thermo Scientific Gemini, another sensor, which can detect organic constituents in various matrices via Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy was also investigated but eliminated from the ETEO design as it could not adequately detect a Military-relevant compound in an environmental matrix. Regardless, the addition of the HI9829 provides water quality monitoring to the ETEO design and greatly improves its capability to address various applications.

A feasibility study was conducted, aiming to explore the potential effectiveness of UV/TiO2/O3 photooxidation technologies for simultaneous treatment of odorant and pathogen emissions from livestock and poultry operations. Several key parameters were tested in laboratory (US) and semi-pilot (Israel) scale conditions including: the effects of light energy dose (treatment time and light intensity), relative humidity and air temperature, UV wavelength, presence of photocatalyst (TiO2) and the presence of ozone. Removal and conversion of odor, target gases (sulfur-containing volatile organic compounds S-VOCs, volatile fatty acids (VFAs), phenolics, and ammonia), and airborne pathogens was tested. Up to 100% removal (below method detection level) of S-VOCs, VFAs, and phenolics, the overall odor, and up to 64.5% of ammonia was achieved with optimized treatment. Treatments involving deep UV band (185 nm) and photocatalyst (TiO2) were more efficient in removal/conversion of odorous gases and odor. The estimate of the operational cost of treatment was based on measured emissions of several odorous VOCs from full scale, commercial swine farm ranges from $0.15 to $0.59 per finisher pig. This figure represents significantly lower cost compared with the cost of biofiltration or air scrubbing.

Platooning has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of commercial vehicles while improving safety; however, both advantages are currently difficult to quantify due to insufficient data and the wide range of variables affecting models. Platooning will significantly reduce the use of energy when compared to trucks driven alone, or at a safe distance for a driver without any automated assistance. Platooning will also reduce stopping distances—multiple states in the US have passed laws authorizing truck platoons to operate at shorter gaps than are authorized for normal, human-driven trucks. However, drivers typically do not currently leave the recommended gaps and, therefore, already gain much of the potential energy savings by drafting lead vehicles, albeit illegally. The automated systems associated with platooning cannot be programmed to flout safety recommendations in the way that human drivers routinely do. Therefore, actual energy savings may be minimal while safety may be greatly improved. More data will be needed to conclusively demonstrate a safety gain. Recommended safe gaps are currently highly generalized and must necessarily assume worst-case braking performance. Using a combination of condition monitoring and vehicle-to-vehicle communications, platooning systems will be able to account for the braking performance of other vehicles within the platoon. If all the vehicles in a platoon have a high level of braking performance, the platoon will be able to operate in a more efficient, tighter formation. Driver acceptance of platooning technology will increase as the systems become more effective and do not displace jobs. The increased loading of infrastructure must also be considered, and there may be requirements for upgrades on bridges or restrictions on platooning operation.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) currently operates and maintains approximately 193 commercially active lock sites with 239 locks and dams spanning nearly 12,000 miles. These networks of water channels are used to transport 600 million tons of domestic cargo, generating $405 billion in revenue annually. Nearly 60% of these structures in operation are over 50 years old and have reached design life. A failure of the miter gates could result in a major negative impact on the economy and on the ability to maintain flood control. Administrators need recommendations to better prioritize maintenance and repair of the USACE miter gates. This work investigated the influence of miter gate’s quoin block degradation on load transfer to the pintle and/or pintle connections. Results of finite element analysis are reported for the quoin block degradation simulated levels of 0%, 25%, 50%, and 75%. The parametric study shows the overstressed regions are the pintle neck and bolt-hole regions. To improve pintle designs so they may better mitigate detrimental environmental based deterioration effects, this work recommends (1) increasing the thickness of the bolt-hole connection region and (2) adding ribbing reinforcement around the neck area of the pintle.

This Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) documents the development through verification and validation of three instability-suppressing mechanisms in FUNWAVE-TVD, a Boussinesq-type numerical wave model, when modeling deep-draft vessels with a low under-keel clearance (UKC). Many large commercial ports and channels (e.g., Houston Ship Channel, Galveston, US Army Corps of Engineers [USACE]) are traveled and affected by tens of thousands of commercial vessel passages per year. In a series of recent projects undertaken for the Galveston District (USACE), it was discovered that when deep-draft vessels are modeled using pressure-source mechanisms, they can suffer from model instabilities when low UKC is employed (e.g., vessel draft of 12 m¹ in a channel of 15 m or less of depth), rendering a simulation unstable and obsolete. As an increasingly large number of deep-draft vessels are put into service, this problem is becoming more severe. This presents an operational challenge when modeling large container-type vessels in busy shipping channels, as these often will come as close as 1 m to the bottom of the channel, or even touch the bottom. This behavior would subsequently exhibit a numerical discontinuity in a given model and could severely limit the sample size of modeled vessels. This CHETN outlines a robust approach to suppressing such instability without compromising the integrity of the far-field vessel wave/wake solution. The three methods developed in this study aim to suppress high-frequency spikes generated nearfield of a vessel. They are a shock-capturing method, a friction method, and a viscosity method, respectively. The tests show that the combined shock-capturing and friction method is the most effective method to suppress the local high-frequency noises, while not affecting the far-field solution. A strong test, in which the target draft is larger than the channel depth, shows that there are no high-frequency noises generated in the case of ship squat as long as the shock-capturing method is used.

Background Early detection and identification of faulty greenhouse operation is essential, if losses are to be minimized by taking immediate corrective actions. Automatic detection and identification would also free the greenhouse manager to tend to his other business. Original objectives The general objective was to develop a method, or methods, for the detection, identification and accommodation of faults in the greenhouse. More specific objectives were as follows: 1. Develop accurate systems models, which will enable the detection of small deviations from normal behavior (of sensors, control, structure and crop). 2. Using these models, develop algorithms for an early detection of deviations from the normal. 3. Develop identifying procedures for the most important faults. 4. Develop accommodation procedures while awaiting a repair. The Technion team focused on the shoot environment and the Cornell University team focused on the root environment. Achievements Models: Accurate models were developed for both shoot and root environment in the greenhouse, utilizing neural networks, sometimes combined with robust physical models (hybrid models). Suitable adaptation methods were also successfully developed. The accuracy was sufficient to allow detection of frequently occurring sensor and equipment faults from common measurements. A large data base, covering a wide range of weather conditions, is required for best results. This data base can be created from in-situ routine measurements. Detection and isolation: A robust detection and isolation (formerly referred to as 'identification') method has been developed, which is capable of separating the effect of faults from model inaccuracies and disturbance effects. Sensor and equipment faults: Good detection capabilities have been demonstrated for sensor and equipment failures in both the shoot and root environment. Water stress detection: An excitation method of the shoot environment has been developed, which successfully detected water stress, as soon as the transpiration rate dropped from its normal level. Due to unavailability of suitable monitoring equipment for the root environment, crop faults could not be detected from measurements in the root zone. Dust: The effect of screen clogging by dust has been quantified. Implications Sensor and equipment fault detection and isolation is at a stage where it could be introduced into well equipped and maintained commercial greenhouses on a trial basis. Detection of crop problems requires further work. Dr. Peleg was primarily responsible for developing and implementing the innovative data analysis tools. The cooperation was particularly enhanced by Dr. Peleg's three summer sabbaticals at the ARS, Northem Plains Agricultural Research Laboratory, in Sidney, Montana. Switching from multi-band to hyperspectral remote sensing technology during the last 2 years of the project was advantageous by expanding the scope of detected plant growth attributes e.g. Yield, Leaf Nitrate, Biomass and Sugar Content of sugar beets. However, it disrupted the continuity of the project which was originally planned on a 2 year crop rotation cycle of sugar beets and multiple crops (com and wheat), as commonly planted in eastern Montana. Consequently, at the end of the second year we submitted a continuation BARD proposal which was turned down for funding. This severely hampered our ability to validate our findings as originally planned in a 4-year crop rotation cycle. Thankfully, BARD consented to our request for a one year extension of the project without additional funding. This enabled us to develop most of the methodology for implementing and running the hyperspectral remote sensing system and develop the new analytical tools for solving the non-repeatability problem and analyzing the huge hyperspectral image cube datasets. However, without validation of these tools over a ful14-year crop rotation cycle this project shall remain essentially unfinished. Should the findings of this report prompt the BARD management to encourage us to resubmit our continuation research proposal, we shall be happy to do so.

Original objectives: The basic goal of the present project was to increase our understanding of the cellular mechanisms operating during the gravitropic response of cut flowers, for solving their bending problem without affecting flower quality. Thus, several elements operating at the 3 levels o the gravity-induced signal transduction pathway, were proposed to be examined in snapdragon stems according to the following research goals: 1) Signaling: characterize the signal transduction pathway leading to the gravitropic response, regarding the involvement of [Ca2+]cyt as a mediator of IAA movement and sensitivity to auxin. 2) Transduction by plant hormones: a) Examine the involvement of auxin in the gravitropic response of flower stems with regard to: possible participation of auxin binding protein (ABP), auxin redistribution, auxin mechanism of action (activation of H+-ATPase) mediation by changes in [Ca2+]cyt and possible regulation of auxin-induced Ca2+ action b: calmodulin-activated or Ca2+-activated protein kinases (PK). b) Examine the involvement of ethylene in the gravitropic response of flower stems with regard to auxin-induced ethylene production and sensitivity of the tissue to ethylene. 3) Response: examine the effect of gravistimulation on invertase (associated with growth and elongation) activity and invertase gene expression. 4) Commercial practice: develop practical and simple treatments to prevent bending of cut flowers grown for export. Revisions: 1) Model systems: in addition to snapdragon (Antirrhinum majus L.), 3 other model shoe systems, consisting of oat (Avena sativa) pulvini, Ornithogalun 'Nova' cut flowers and Arabidopsis thaliana inflorescence, were targeted to confirm a more general mechanism for shoot gravitropism. 2 Research topics: the involvement of ABP, auxin action, PK and invertase in the gravitropic response of snapdragon stems could not be demonstrated. Alternatively, the involvement in the gravity signaling cascade of several other physiological mediators apart of [Ca2+]cyt such as: IP3, protein phosphorylation and actin cytoskeleton, was shown. Additional topics introduced: starch statolith reorientation, differential expression of early auxin responsive genes, and differential shoot growth. Background to the topic: The gravitropic bending response of flowering shoots occurring upon their horizontal placement during shipment exhibits a major horticultural problem. In spite of extensive studies in various aboveground organs, the gravitropic response was hardly investigated in flowering shoots. Being a complex multistep process that requires the participation of various cellular components acting in succession or in parallel, analysis of the negative gravitropic response of shoot includes investigation of signal transduction elements and various regulatory physiological mediators. Major achievements: 1) A correlative role for starch statoliths as gravireceptors in flowering shoot was initially established. 2) Differentially phosphorylated proteins and IP3 levels across the oat shoe pulvini, as well as a differential appearance of 2 early auxin-responsive genes in snapdragon stems were all detected within 5-30 minutes following gravistimulation. 3) Unlike in roots, involvement of actin cytoskeleton in early events of the gravitropic response of snapdragon shoots was established. 4) An asymmetric IAA distribution, followed by an asymmetric ethylene production across snapdragon stems was found following gravistimulation. 5) The gravity-induced differential growth in shoots of snapdragon was derived from initial shrinkage of the upper stem side and a subsequent elongation o the lower stem side. 6) Shoot bending could be successfully inhibited by Ca2+ antagonists (that serve as a basis for practical treatments), kinase and phosphatase inhibitors and actin-cytoskeleton modulators. All these agents did not affect vertical growth. The essential characterization of these key events and their sequence led us to the conclusion that blocking gravity perception may be the most powerful means to inhibit bending without hampering shoot and flower growth after harvest. Implications, scientific and agriculture: The innovative results of this project have provided some new insight in the basic understanding of gravitropism in flower stalks, that partially filled the gap in our knowledge, and established useful means for its control. Additionally, our analysis has advanced the understanding of important and fundamental physiological processes involved, thereby leading to new ideas for agriculture. Gravitropism has an important impact on agriculture, particularly for controlling the bending of various important agricultural products with economic value. So far, no safe control of the undesired bending problem of flower stalks has been established. Our results show for the first time that shoot bending of cut flowers can be inhibited without adverse effects by controlling the gravity perception step with Ca2+ antagonists and cytoskeleton modulators. Such a practical benefit resulting from this project is of great economic value for the floriculture industry.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

For nearly a century, the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) has been at the forefront of tackling our nation's toughest engineering challenges, providing innovative solutions in the areas of civil works and military engineering, and offsetting the negative effects of climate change. From its earliest days of hydrology experiments along the Mississippi River in 1929, ERDC's R&D has grown, along with its buildings and capabilities. Today, ERDC's facilities, combined with its people, have created one of the world's premier R&D organizations supporting the delivery of projects and programs for federal, state and local agencies as well as private, academic and international partners. ERDC's ongoing R&D, aligned with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D portfolios, allows key investments to be targeted to strategic areas that can benefit multiple interests. ERDC's R&D enhances USACE's ability to execute its Civil Works (CW) missions to support commercial navigation, manage ecosystems and reduce flood risk, while our research in Installations and Operational Environments (IOE) is improving the reliability, efficiency and effectiveness of military infrastructure and on the battlefield. ERDC conducts scientific R&D to improve all aspects of mission planning, preparation, execution and sustainment, including innovations to protect the Warfighter. Sustained, multiyear support for ERDC R&D is critical to institutionalize successes and magnify benefits, enabling the nation to take a proactive approach to meeting the complex challenges of both today and tomorrow.