Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Commercial products Econometric models'

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1

Andriamanjay, Eric. "An econometric analysis of the consumer demand for dairy products in Canada 1968-1982 /." Thesis, McGill University, 1988. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=61840.

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2

Zajicek, Edward K. "Valuation of quality determinants in consumer demand for automobile : a hedonic price approach /." Diss., This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-08232007-112211/.

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3

Ben-Belhassen, Boubaker. "Econometric models of the Argentine cereal economy : a focus on policy simulation analysis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9842508.

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4

Barkley, David L., and Peter E. Helander. "The Role of Commercial Bank Loans in Nonmetropolitan Economic Development." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/602137.

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5

Berger, Nicholas. "Modelling structural and policy changes in the world wine market into the 21st century." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2000. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ECM/09ecmb496.pdf.

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Includes bibliographical references. Addresses the question of what an economic model of the world wine market suggests will happen to wine production, consumption, trade and prices in various regions in the early 21st century. A subsidiary issue is what difference would global or European regional wine liberalisation make to that outlook, according to such a model. Accompanying CD-ROM comprises spreadsheet written by Nick Berger, November 2000, for the Windows and Office97 versions of Excel; a seven region world wine model (WWM7) - base version projecting the world wine market 1996-2005 as a non-linear Armington model. System requirements for accompanying CD-ROM: IBM compatible computer ; Microsoft Excel 97 or later.
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6

Budu, Ben Asare. "Economic feasibility of processing food waste and incorporating processed food waste products in least cost duck feeds." Thesis, McGill University, 2001. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=33067.

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The focus of this thesis was to analyze the least cost of producing rations for ducks in three age categories from a mixture of conventional feed ingredients and three different processed food waste products and to examine the financial and economic feasibility of establishing an industrial plant to produce these food waste products in the Montreal region. The first part of the thesis was investigated through the use of a linear programming model. The effect of recognizing the variability of protein levels in the various feed ingredients was examined through the use of chance-constrained programming.
The second part of the thesis was examined using economic and financial analyses for the investment. The basic plant requirements to produce the three processed food waste products were the same, however energy costs were different for the three products. Revenue was generated from tipping fees and the sale of the three processed food waste products. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
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7

Senzangakhona, Phakama. "The impact of oil price volatility on unemployment: a case study of South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/1697.

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This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.
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8

Garcia-Martinez, Salvador. "Demand and profitability for albacore products : a multi-attribute analysis." Thesis, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/34370.

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The main purpose of this research is to provide the commercial seafood industry of the Pacific Northwest information on preferences of restaurateurs, retailers, and wholesalers for whole albacore, low-value added albacore products (chunks, medallions, and steaks), albacore loins, and high-value added albacore products (hot smoked and lox). All of these products were categorized as non-traditional market forms of albacore products, except whole albacore. The empirical analysis was based on self explicated and conjoint analysis. The demand models for albacore products were estimated using weighted least squares. Profitability equations for albacore products were estimated using a two-limit Tobit model. From the self explicated section, it was found that the attributes of price, flavor, blood spots/bruising, and bleeding of whole albacore were considered highly important by respondents. From the conjoint analysis section, it was found that, as expected a priori, price had a statistical significant effect on the demand and profitability models for all albacore products. Other variables, such as location of the firm, type of firm, experience with tuna species, and ranking of albacore had statistical significant effects on the demand and profitability equations. Wholesalers, restaurateurs, and retailers agreed that quality is a major concern and will influence their preferences when purchasing albacore can products. Overall, the findings from this research provide guidance to the commercial seafood industry of the Pacific Northwest to enhance the markets for albacore products.
Graduation date: 1997
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9

"The gain from trade of a small open monetary economy with endogenous labor supply." 2003. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5891583.

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Chan Yeung.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 56-57).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 2 --- "Literature reviews, contributions of this thesis and the comparison"
Chapter 2.1 --- Literature reviews
Chapter 2.11 --- Endogenous labor supply models --- p.3
Chapter 2.12 --- The CIA models --- p.12
Chapter 2.2 --- Contributions of this thesis and the comparison --- p.17
Chapter 3 --- The Model --- p.20
Chapter 4 --- "Trade restrictions, welfare and employment"
Chapter 4.1 --- Tariff and welfare --- p.26
Chapter 4.2 --- Tariff and employment --- p.30
Chapter 4.3 --- Comparing welfare and employment effects --- p.31
Chapter 4.4 --- "Quotas, welfare, employment and price level" --- p.32
Chapter 5 --- Optimal tariffs --- p.33
Chapter 6 --- Indirect taxation and welfare --- p.40
Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.43
Appendix
Appendix A: Determine the sign of Δ --- p.45
Appendix B: Derivation of equation (4.2) --- p.45
Appendix C: Derivation of equation (4.3) --- p.47
"Appendix D: Quotas, welfare,employment and price level" --- p.48
Appendix E: The derivation of optimal tariff --- p.50
Appendix F: Optimal consumption tax and wage subsidy --- p.53
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10

Niami, Farhad. "An econometric analysis of the Japanese import demand for U.S. forest products." Thesis, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/26850.

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Japan is the largest market for U.S. forest products. Therefore, export of wood products to this country is critical to the economic life of the forest industry in the U.S. and particularly for the Pacific Northwest. Hence, economic conditions and developments in Japan may significantly affect the volume of trade for the products of concern and, in turn, the well-being of the U.S. lumber and log production-consumption system. Few studies have addressed forest product trade between the U.S. and Japan. This study is designed to determine the effect of several selected market factors on the Japanese import demand for U.S. softwood lumber and logs and to estimate the influence of these factors on Japan's future trade. A numerical model was developed incorporating these selective factors, thought to be relevant, to determine their effects on the Japanese market for the U.S. forest products. The evaluation considers the effects of variations in: Japanese income, domestic production of softwood logs in Japan, domestic prices of the products of concern, petroleum purchased by Japan, nominal interest rates in Japan, the exchange rates, and finally a weighted average of prices of the products from the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington, only). Given the available resources, two empirical time series models for each commodity were estimated by OLS technique using annual data from 1961 through 1985. The results indicate that the Japanese import demands for both products are inelastic. This finding, along with other evidence, suggests the distortion of the Japanese import demand for U.S. forest products by factors other than economic, mainly politics involved in trade restraint between the two countries. The study shows that GNP per capita, housing starts, and the interest rates in Japan, significantly affect the Japanese import demand for lumber from the U.S. Housing starts is the only significant factor in the case of the Japanese import demand for U.S. logs. In the latter case, the exchange rates and log export prices to Japan (deflated by Japan's wholesale price index), are significant only when the log linear model has been applied.
Graduation date: 1988
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11

Lee, Man-keung. "Topics in applied microeconomics : estimating the value of commercial land and testing the efficiency of the U.S. Motor Carrier industry." Thesis, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/34160.

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This thesis consists of two essays on applied microeconomics issues. The first essay presents a hedonic price econometric model of vacant commercial land. The second essay presents cost frontier analysis on the industry and firm's performance of the U.S. Motor Carrier industry. Our hedonic price econometric model includes two new developments in estimating land values in a multicentric urban area First, two composite indexes of market accessibility and highway accessibility are developed to account for the impacts of different characteristics of different regional nodes on land value at a particular site. Second, we use nonlinear least squares to estimate the decay parameters of the accessibility indexes within the model. We found that market accessibility is the dominant land value determinant. The estimated market accessibility decay parameter is different in value from the ones that are commonly assumed in hedonic models. The effect of access to highway interchanges is insignificant. Corner lots are of higher value. Finally, under Seattle's zoning policy, zoning classification of neighborhood commercial and community commercial land does not have significant effect on land value. The second essay uses the stochastic cost frontiers to analyze the performance of the U.S. motor carrier industry in the pre- and post-MCA periods. The average industry inefficiencies were between 14 and 27 percent during studied period. Our results indicate that the deregulation has no impact on industry efficiency. After a short adjustment period, the average industry inefficiency in the post-MCA years falls back to its pre-MCA level of around 14 to 16 percent. We analyzed the firm-specific inefficiencies by tobit regression. Our result shows that union firms are 1.5 and 4 percent less efficient than non-union firms in the pre- and post-MCA years, respectively. Firms located in the southern region are relatively efficient and the ones in the northern regions are relatively inefficient. Our result supports Stigler's Survivor Principle that survivor firms are relatively efficient.
Graduation date: 1998
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12

Nguyen, Thang Quang 1977. "Quality innovation: driving forces and implications for production, trade, and consumption." Thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/3389.

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The dissertation has three main chapters on product quality innovation. First, we compare innovation effort and social welfare between monopoly, duopoly, and the social planner in a dynamic model with quality dependent on a continuous know-how stock. The technology frontier--the largest reachable know-how socks--does not always positively depend on competitiveness, i.e. a duopoly may technologically surpass the social planner. However, social welfare is always positively tied to competitiveness. Second, with a general equilibrium model, we derive a relative price function expressing productivity and quality effects, and develop a method for inferring relative quality changes. An application to services versus goods of the US from 1946-2006 provides evidence on aggregate quality changes and suggests us to incorporate quality variations when explaining relative prices. Third, we build a two-product model where productivity changes lead to reallocations of labor between quantity production and quality innovation. The correlation between relative productivity and relative quality is negative for low-range substitutability and positive for medium-range substitutability between two products. Looking at services versus goods of the US, the correlation is negative and productivity-driven quality can play a significant role in general quality development.
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13

Ayar, Musa 1979. "Essays on vertical mergers, advertising, and competitive entry." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/3821.

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This dissertation consists of three independent essays. We briefly introduce these essays in chapter 1 and leave a comprehensive introduction to each essay. Chapter 2 considers a vertically separated industry where production takes time and vertical mergers shorten production time. We investigate the impact of vertical mergers on the downstream firms' ability to collude and show that vertical mergers facilitate downstream collusion. Chapter 3 provides a theoretical foundation for a puzzling empirical observation that advertising follows an inverted U shape for some new products. Chapter 4 analyzes an incumbent's response to a competitive entry. We show that if the quality of the entrant is uncertain, the incumbent can "jam" the quality signalling of the entrant. Finally, chapter 5 summarizes main conclusions of three essays.
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14

Cho, Bong-Jae. "The Economic effects of trade liberalization under oligopoly." Thesis, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/36456.

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In modern economies, national governments have a wide range of policies for restricting international trade and protecting domestic industries at their disposal. The most popular form of non-tariff trade policies is probably that of a direct quantitative restriction. This policy takes two principal forms: explicit import quotas and voluntary export restraints (VERs). A VER is a quota imposed by an exporting country upon exports to other countries in response to pressures exercised by the importing countries (i.e., in the form of threats of various types of import restrictions). When these two policies are partially liberalized, subject to a reasonable foreign share in the domestic market, product differentiation between imported goods and domestic goods within an imperfect market can serve to increase welfare levels within the domestic economy. In this situation, the foreign share will not be as high as it would be for the homogeneous assumption. Under a partial VER liberalization policy, if the degree of substitutability between domestic and imported goods is sufficiently small, then domestic welfare will improve as foreign imports are increased. That is, if domestic and imported goods are perfect substitutes, then the most favorable domestic policy will be to close domestic markets to the foreign country since no country can allow foreign market shares as high as 66 percent in the domestic market. In a simulation of U.S. automobile industrial production, when a partial quota liberalization is observed, welfare levels can be increased by reducing the Japanese import market share to a level below 10 percent, that is, to a level which is less than the actual current foreign market share. In real terms, this implies that U.S. auto industry must be further liberalized to acquire additional domestic benefits under a VER policy, whereas the U.S. should restrict foreign market share below 10 percent to maximize domestic welfare levels under a quota policy. This will occur if the net consumer surplus is in excess of producer net excess profits under an imperfect market structure.
Graduation date: 1993
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15

Thompson, David. "Essays on Regulatory Design." Thesis, 2021. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-2gke-kd15.

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This dissertation consists of three essays on the design of regulatory systems intended to inform market participants about product quality. The central theme is how asymmetric information problems influence the incentives of customers, regulated firms, and certifiers, and the implications these distortions have for welfare and market design. The first chapter, Regulation by Information Provision, studies quality provision in New York City's elevator maintenance market. In this market, service providers maintain machines and are inspected periodically by city inspectors. I find evidence that monitoring frictions create moral hazard for service providers. In the absence of perfect monitoring, buildings rely on signals generated by the regulator to hold service providers accountable, cancelling contracts when bad news arrives and preserving them when good news arrives. Regulatory instruments, such as inspection frequency and fine levels, can therefore influence provider effort in two ways: (i) by directly changing the cost of effort (e.g. fines for poor peformance); (ii) by changing expected future revenue (through building cancellation decisions). Using a structural search model of the industry, I find that the second channel is the dominant one. In particular, I note that strengthening the information channel has two equilibrium effects: first, it increases provider effort; and second, it shifts share towards higher-quality matches since buildings can more quickly sever unproductive relationships. These findings have important policy implications, as they suggest that efficient information provision --- for example, targeting inspections to newly-formed relationships --- is a promising avenues for welfare improvement. The second chapter, Quality Disclosure Design, studies a similar regulatory scheme, but emphasizes the incentives of the certifier. In particular, I argue that restaurant inspectors in New York City are locally averse to giving restaurants poor grades: restaurants whose inspections are on the border of an A versus a B grade are disproportionately given an A. The impact of this bias is twofold: first, it degrades the quality of the information provided to the market, as there is substantial heterogeneity in food-poisoning risk even within A restaurants. Second, by making it easier to achieve passing grades, inspector bias reduces incentives for restaurants to invest in their health practices. After developing a model of the inspector-restaurant interaction, counterfactual work suggests that stricter grading along the A-B boundary could generate substantial improvements in food-poisoning rates. The policy implications of these findings depends on the source of inspector bias. I find some evidence that bias is bureaucratic in nature: when inspectors have inspection decisions overturned in an administrative trial, they are more likely to score leniently along the A-B boundary in their other inspections. However, it's not clear whether this behavior stems from administrative burden (a desire to avoid more trials) or a desire to avoid looking incompetent. Pilot programs that reduce the administrative burden of giving B grades are a promising avenue for future research. The last chapter, Real-Time Inference, also studies the incentives of certifiers, namely MLB umpires charged with classifying pitches as balls or strikes. Unlike in \textit{Quality Disclosure Design}, I find that umpire ball/strike decisions are remarkably bias-free. Previous literature on this topic has noted a tendency for umpires to --- for a fixed pitch location --- call more strikes in hitter's counts and more balls in pitcher's counts. I propose a simple rational explanation for this behavior: umpires are Bayesian. In hitter's counts, such as 3-0, pitchers tend to throw pitches right down the middle of the plate, whereas in pitcher's counts, they throw pitches outside the strike zone. For a borderline pitch, the umpire's prior will push it towards the strike zone in a 3-0 count and away from the strike-zone in an 0-2 count, producing the exact divergence in ball/strike calls noted in previous work. While implications for broader policy are not immediately obvious, I note several features of the environment that are conducive to umpires effectively approximating optimal inference, particularly the frequent, data-driven feedback that umpires receive on their performance.
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16

Arora, Vipin. "Macroeconomic policy and oil price dynamics." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151203.

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17

Al-Hussinie, Abdulaziz S. "The impact of agricultural price policies on the supply and demand for agricultural products : the case of barley and wheat in Saudi Arabia." Thesis, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/26863.

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18

Omolo, Miriam. "The impact of trade policy reforms on households : a welfare analysis for Kenya." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/8769.

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Trade liberalization in Kenya started in the early 1980s with the structural adjustment programmes, and continued under the multilateral framework of the WTO. During the same period, the incidence of poverty and level of inequality also worsened. The government’s focus on trade negotiations has been to ensure that there is policy space for the daily running of the economy even though welfare impacts are also important. Non-state actors have argued that trade liberalization has negatively affected the poor; particularly the farmers, since they cannot compete with the developed countries whose farmers enjoy significant government support through subsidies, making their products much cheaper in the world market. Government officials, on the other hand, contend that trade liberalization is good as it brings in competition and transfer of technology which is good for an economy. It is important to examine how trade liberalization has affected household’s welfare in Kenya, given that this kind of analysis has not been conducted in Kenya. This study is unique because it does not assume the existence of a trade liberalization– poverty relationship, unlike most studies. It uses a multi-method approach to first test the hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, it further tests for multiplier effects of trade liberalization on poverty determinants. Trade Liberalization and poverty is found to have a stochastic relationship, furthermore investments and capital stock were found to significantly affect poverty determinants in the stochastic model. Due to unavailability of household welfare measure data in time series, a CGE model was used to establish the dynamics of trade liberalization on poverty at a point in time using the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix Data for Kenya. Overall, trade liberalization accompanied by FDI had the greatest impact on household welfare. Trade liberalization had a positive impact on household welfare since household incomes and consumption increased. Micro simulations results, based on changes in consumption, also showed that poverty incidence reduced for all households, even though the urban households experienced higher decreases. The study found that there was little difference in protecting sensitive products and not protecting them; secondly, trade liberalization accompanied by foreign direct investment had greater impact on improving the household welfare. Consumption and incomes increased, resulting in overall poverty reduction. The welfare of urban households was much higher than rural households in terms of income and consumption increases. However, income inequality was much higher in urban than rural areas.
Economics
D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)
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19

Madula, Mulalo. "Does trade credit facilitate access to bank finance? : empirical evidence from South Africa." Diss., 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/23215.

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The earlier theories considered trade credit as a substitute for bank credit. Recent theories suggest that bank credit and trade credit can also be considered as two complementary sources of financing. By using South African panel data from 2007 to 2015, the study examines if the problem of financial inclusion in South Africa can be mitigated by utilising trade credit data. The empirical findings using trade credit at current period are consistent with the earlier theories of trade credit that trade credit and bank credit are substitutes, but the model was not robust to estimation techniques. The study also used the lagged trade credit as a variable of interest and found that it is positively related to bank credit. This means that the trade credit data from the previous period can facilitate access to bank credit. Therefore, the information from trade credit can serve as a signal about firms’ quality and thus facilitates access to bank finance.
Economics
M. Com (Economics)
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20

Dambaza, Marx. "Credit risk measurement model for small and medium enterprises : the case of Zimbabwe." Thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/26765.

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Abstracts in English, Zulu and Southern Sotho
The advent of Basel II Capital Accord has revolutionised credit risk measurement (CRM) to the extent that the once “perceived riskier bank assets” are now accommodated for lending. The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector has been traditionally perceived as a riskier and unprofitable asset for lending activity by Commercial Banks, in particular. But empirical studies on the implementation of the Basel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) framework have demonstrated that SME credit risk is measurable. Banks are still finding it difficult to forecast SME loan default and to provide credit to the sector that meet Basel’s capital requirements. The thesis proposes to construct an empirical credit risk measurement (CRM) model, specifically for SMEs, to ameliorate the adverse effects of SME credit inaccessibility due to high information asymmetry between financial institutions (FI) and SMEs in Zimbabwe. A well-performing and accurate CRM helps FIs to control their risk exposure through selective granting of credit based on a thorough statistical analysis of historical customer data. This thesis develops a CRM model, built on a statistically random sample, known-good-bad (KGB) sample, which is a better representation of the through-the-door (TTD) population of SME loan applicants. The KGB sample incorporates both accepted and rejected applications, through reject inference (RI). A model-based bound and collapse (BC) reject inference methodology was empirically used to correct selectivity bias inherent in CRM domain. The results have shown great improvement in the classification power and aggregate supply of credit supply to the SME portfolio of the case-studied bank, as evidenced by substantial decrease of bad rates across models developed; from the preliminary model to final model designed for the case-studied bank. The final model was validated using both bad rate, confusion matrix metrics and Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve to assess the classification power of the model within-sample and out-of-sample. The AUROC for the final model (weak model) was found to be 0.9782 whilst bad rate was found to be 14.69%. There was 28.76% improvement in the bad rate in the final model in comparison with the current CRM model being used by the case-studied bank.
Isivumelwano seBasel II Capital Accord sesishintshe indlela yokulinganisa ubungozi bokunikezana ngesikweletu credit risk measurement (CRM) kwaze kwafika ezingeni lapho izimpahla ezazithathwa njengamagugu anobungozi “riskier bank assets” sezimukelwa njengesibambiso sokuboleka imali. Umkhakha wezamaBhizinisi Amancane naSafufusayo, phecelezi, Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) kudala uqondakala njengomkhakha onobungozi obukhulu futhi njengomkhakha ongangenisi inzuzo, ikakhulu njengesibambiso sokubolekwa imali ngamabhange ahwebayo. Kodwa izifundo zocwaningo ezimayelana nokusetshenziswa nokusetshenziswa kwesakhiwo iBasel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) sezikhombisile ukuthi ubungozi bokunikeza isikweletu kumabhizinisi amancane nasafufusayo (SME) sebuyalinganiseka. Yize kunjalo, amabhange asathola ukuthi kusenzima ukubona ngaphambili inkinga yokungabhadeleki kahle kwezikweletu kanye nokunikeza isikweletu imikhakha enemigomo edingekayo yezimali kaBasel. Lolu cwaningo beluphakamisa ukwakha uhlelo imodeli ephathekayo yokulinganisa izinga lobungozi bokubolekisa ngemali (CRM) kwihlelo lokuxhasa ngezimali ama-SME, okuyihlelo elilawulwa yiziko lezimali ezweni laseZimbabwe. Imodeli ye-CRM esebenza kahle futhi eshaya khona inceda amaziko ezimali ukugwema ubungozi bokunikezana ngezikweletu ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lokunikeza isikweletu ababoleki abakhethekile, lokhu kususelwa ohlelweni oluhlaziya amanani edatha engumlando wekhasimende. Imodeli ye-CRM ephakanyisiwe yaqala yakhiwa ngohlelo lwamanani, phecelezi istatistically random sample, okuluphawu olungcono olumele uhlelo lwe through-the-door (TTD) population lokukhetha abafakizicelo zokubolekwa imali bama SME, kanti lokhu kuxuba zona zombili izicelo eziphumelele kanye nezingaphumelelanga. Indlela yokukhetha abafakizicelo, phecelezi model-based bound-and-collapse (BC) reject-inference methodology isetshenzisiwe ukulungisa indlela yokukhetha ngokukhetha ngendlela yokucwasa kwisizinda seCRM. Imiphumela iye yakhombisa intuthuko enkulu mayelana namandla okwehlukanisa kanye nokunikezwa kwezikweletu kuma SME okungamamabhange enziwe ucwaningo lotho., njengoba lokhu kufakazelwa ukuncipha okukhulu kwe-bad rate kuwo wonke amamodeli athuthukisiwe. Imodeli yokuqala kanye neyokugcina zazidizayinelwe ibhange. Imodeli yokugcina yaqinisekiswa ngokusebenzisa zombili indlela isikweletu esingagculisi kanye negrafu ye-Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) ukulinganisa ukwehlukaniswa kwamandla emodeli engaphakathi kwesampuli nangaphandle kwesampuli. Uhlelo lwe-AUROC lwemodeli yokugcina (weak model) lwatholakala ukuthi luyi 0.9782, kanti ibad rate yatholakala ukuthi yenza i-14.69%. Kwaba khona ukuthuthuka nge-28.76% kwi-bad rate kwimodeli yokugcina uma iqhathaniswa nemodeli yamanje iCRM model ukuba isetshenziswe yibhange elithile.
Basel II Capital Accord e fetotse tekanyo ya kotsi ya mokitlane (credit risk measurement (CRM)) hoo “thepa e kotsi ya dibanka” ka moo e neng e bonwa ka teng, e seng e fuwa sebaka dikadimong. Lekala la Dikgwebo tse Nyane le tse Mahareng (SME) le bonwa ka tlwaelo jwalo ka lekala le kotsi e hodimo le senang ditswala bakeng sa ditshebetso tsa dikadimo haholo ke dibanka tsa kgwebo. Empa dipatlisiso tse thehilweng hodima se bonweng kapa se etsahetseng tsa tshebetso ya moralo wa Basel II internal-ratings-based (IRB) di supile hore kotsi ya mokitlane ya SME e kgona ho lekanngwa. Leha ho le jwalo, dibanka di ntse di thatafallwa ke ho bonelapele palo ya ditlholeho tsa ho lefa tsa diSME le ho fana ka mokitla lekaleng leo le kgotsofatsang ditlhoko tsa Basel tsa ditjhelete. Phuputso ena e ne sisinya ho etsa tekanyo ya se bonwang ho mmotlolo wa kotsi ya mokitlane (CRM) tshebetsong ya phano ya tjhelete ya diSME e etswang ke setsi sa ditjhelete (FI) ho la Zimbabwe. Mmotlolo o sebetsang hantle hape o fanang ka dipalo tse nepahetseng o dusa diFI hore di laole pepeso ya tsona ho kotsi ka phano e kgethang ya mokitlane, e thehilweng hodima manollo ya dipalopalo ya dintlha tsa histori ya bareki. Mmotlolo o sisingwang wa CRM o hlahisitswe ho tswa ho sampole e sa hlophiswang, e leng pontsho e betere ya setjhaba se ikenelang le monyako (TTD) ya batho bao e kang bakadimi ba tjhelete ho diSME, hobane e kenyelletsa bakopi ba amohetsweng le ba hannweng. Mokgwatshebetso wa bound-and-collapse (BC) reject-inference o kentswe tshebetsong ho nepahatsa tshekamelo ya kgetho e leng teng ho lekala la CRM. Diphetho tsena di bontshitse ntlafalo e kgolo ho matla a tlhophiso le palohare ya phano ya mokitlane ho diSME tsa banka eo ho ithutilweng ka yona, jwalo ka ha ho pakilwe ke ho phokotseho ya direite tse mpe ho pharalla le dimmotlolo tse hlahisitsweng. Mmotlolo wa ho qala le wa ho qetela e ile ya ralwa bakeng sa banka. Mmotlolo wa ho qetela o ile wa netefatswa ka tshebediso ya bobedi reite e mpe le mothinya wa Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) ho lekanya matla a kenyo mekgahlelong a mmotlolo kahare ho sampole le kantle ho yona. AUROC bakeng sa mmotlo wa ho qetela (mmotlolo o fokotseng) e fumanwe e le 0.9782, ha reite e mpe e fumanwe e le 14.69%. Ho bile le ntlafalo ya 28.76% ho reite e mpe bakeng sa mmotlolo wa ho qetela ha ho bapiswa le mmotlolo wa CRM ha o sebediswa bankeng yona eo.
Graduate School of Business Leadership
D.B.L.
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