Academic literature on the topic 'Coffee bean'

Abstract Green (unroasted) coffee is one of the most traded agricultural commodities in the world. The Arabica (Coffea arabica L.) and Robusta (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner) species are the two main types of coffees for commercial production. In general, Arabica coffee is known to have better quality in terms of sensory characteristics; thus, it has a higher market value than Robusta coffee. Accurate differentiation of green beans of the two species is, therefore, of commercial interest in the coffee industry. Using the newly developed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, we analyzed a total of 80 single green bean samples, representing 20 Arabica cultivars and four Robusta accessions. Reliable SNP fingerprints were generated for all tested samples. Unambiguous differentiation between Robusta and Arabica coffees was achieved using multivariate analysis and assignment test. The SNP marker panel and the genotyping protocol are sufficiently robust to detect admixture of green coffee in a high-throughput fashion. Moreover, the multilocus SNP approach can differentiate every single bean within Robusta and 55% of Arabica samples. This advantage, together with the single-bean sensitivity, suggests a significant potential for practical application of this technology in the coffee industry.

The lipid fraction of coffee is composed mainly of triacylglycerols, sterols and tocopherols, the typical components found in all common edible vegetable oils. Additionally, the so-called coffee oil contains diterpenes of the kaurene family in proportions of up to 20 % of the total lipids. Diterpenes are of interest because of their analytical and physiological effects. The composition of the main lipid components of the two most important coffee species, Coffea arabica and Coffea canphora var. Robusta is presented. In addition, the influences of typical processes like roasting and steaming on selected lipid components as well as the effects of the storage of green coffee beans under different conditions will be described. Furthermore, new findings regarding the 5-hydroxytryptamides, the main parts of the coffee wax located on the outer layer of the bean and the recently identified components coffeadiol and arabiol I will also be discussed.

A type of coffee plant that is widely cultivated in the city of Pagar Alam, South Sumatra is Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora). The robusta coffee plant is one of the traditional plants that can be used as a medicine. The purpose of this research is to analyze the potential of Robusta peaberry Sangrai coffee bean extract and green bean from Pagar Alam city against the growth of Candida albicans fungus. The test method is carried out by extraction, phytochemical screening test and anti-fungal activity test of Robusta coffee bean extract. The results of testing antifungal activity showed that ethanol extracts of roasted peaberry robusta coffee beans and green bean can inhibit the growth of C. albicans fungi by forming clear zones. Secondary metabolite compounds contained in roasted peaberry robusta coffee bean extract and green bean are alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponins and terpenoids. The minimum inhibitory content (MIC) of ethanol extract of roasted peaberry robusta coffee beans and green bean against the growth of C. albicans fungus in vitro is at a concentration of 10%. Based on the results of research on ethanol extract, roasted peaberry robusta coffee beans and green bean have the potential to be anti-fungal because they can inhibit the growth of C. albicans fungus.

Komoditas kopi merupakan komoditas yang banyak digemari dengan Coffeaarabica dan Coffea canephora sebagai kopi yang sering kali dibudidayakan di Indonesia. Kopi harus memenuhi kualitas Standar Nasional Indonesia, karenanya pada penelitian ini ditempuh metode identifikasi mutu kopi mengacu pada (SNI) 2907-2008. Sampel dalam penelitian ini yaitu kopi arabika (Coffea arabica) varietas Andungsari 2K (AS 2K), Komasti (Komposit Andungsari), serta kopi robusta (Coffea canephora) klon KP Kaliwining dan KP Sumberasin (SA). Hasil data penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kopi arabika hasil panen 2021 sesuai dengan uji mutu fisik SNI 01-02907-2008, varietas Andungsari 2K masuk dalam kategori mutu 2, dan Komasti masuk dalam kategori mutu 2. Kopi robusta hasil panen 2021 berdasarkan uji fsik sesuai dengan SNI 01-02907-2008, klon KP kaliwining masuk dalam kategori mutu 3, dan klon KP Sumber Asin masuk dalam kategori mutu 6. Kata kunci: Coffea arabica, Coffea canephora, karakteristikfisik, kualitas biji Coffee is a very popular commodity, with Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora being the most commonly cultivated coffees in Indonesia. Coffee must meet the quality requirements of the Indonesian National Standard, so the method of determining coffee quality used in this study is (SNI) 2907-2008. The arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) Andungsari 2K varieties (AS 2K), Komasti (Andungsari Composites), and robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) clones of KP Kaliwining and KP Sumberasin were used in this study (SA). According to the findings of the research, arabica coffee harvested in 2021 meets the physical quality test of SNI 01-02907-2008, the Andungsari 2K variety is in quality category 2, and Komasti is in quality category 2. Keywords: Bean quality, Coffea arabica, Coffea canephora, physical characteristics,

Bean robusta coffee contains polyphenol compounds which are useful as antioxidants. Antioxidants can inactivate the development of oxidation reactions, by preventing the formation of free radicals. Robusta coffee bean plant (Coffea canephora) is an ingredient that can be formulated into lotion preparations. Cosmetic lotion aims to remove dead skin cells, brighten the skin and soften the skin. This research is to make lotion preparations from robusta coffee bean extract (Coffea Canephora) . This research uses pure experiment. Robusta coffee beans are extracted by maceration process. The lotion formulation is made with variations of robusta coffee bean powder (Coffea Canephora) with a concentration of 2%, 3%, and 4%. The characteristic test includes organoleptic test, homogeneity test, Ph test, and irritation test. The purpose of this study was to determine the lotion formulation for robusta coffee bean extract (Coffea Canephora). The results of the lotion test had a homogeneous concentration of 2%, 3% and 4%, light brown to blackish brown, with a distinctive smell of coffee. The ph lotion test had a PH of 5 in all formulations on the blank had a PH of 6. The irritation test on the lotion preparation showed no erythema and edema in 5 volunteers. From all the tests carried out, the lotion formulation has good characteristics.

Periodontitis is mostly caused by plaque and Pophyromonas gingivalis bacteria as the main cause. The outer membrane layer of the Porphyromonas gingivalis wall produces pathogenic virulence factors, such as lipopolysaccharides which will activate inflammatory cells and cause phagocytosis of antigens thereby triggering free radicals. Robusta coffee beans naturally contain caffeine, phenolic compounds, trigonellin, and chlorogenic acids as antibacterial and anti-inflammatory. The purpose of this study was to determine the inhibition of Robusta (Coffea canephora) coffee bean extract 0.5%; 0.75%; 1%; 1.25%; 1.5% and 3% on the growth of Porphyromonas gingivalis in vitro and to find out the lowest concentration of Robusta (Coffea canephora) coffee bean extract which has inhibitory effect on the growth of Porphyromonas gingivalis. In this study were divided into 8 treatment groups namely positive control, negative control, 0.5% robusta coffee bean extract, 0.75%, 1%, 1.25%, 1.5% and 3%. Petridish dishes containing TSA media that have been sterilized, added P. gingivalis suspension with density according to Mc standard. Farland Then a sterile white test blank with a diameter of 6 mm that is still sterile is placed on top of the bacterial growth media in accordance with the placement of the treatment group and dropped with all 8 treatment materials. After 24 hours incubated in a desiccator, the inhibition of robusta coffee bean extracts against the growth of Porphyromonas gingivalis bacteria was observed and data collection was done by measuring the inhibition zone using calipers. The results obtained robusta coffee bean extract at concentrations of 3%, 1.5%, 1.25% and 1%, have an antibacterial power which is suspected because Robusta coffee beans naturally contain ingredients such as caffeine, polyphenols and chlorogenic acids which have antibacterial activity while the robusta coffee bean extract with a concentration of 0.5% and 0.75% does not have antibacterial power against Pophyromonas gingivalis. Robusta coffee bean extract with a concentration of 1% is the smallest concentration of Robusta (Coffea canephora) coffee bean extract which can inhibit the growth of Porphyromonas gingivalis.

BACKGROUND: Wound healing is an essential biological process that consists of sequential steps aimed at restoring the architecture and function of damaged cells and tissues. There are empirical evidences of using pure coffee bean powder as an alternative medicine in treating various types of wounds. However, there is limited data on coffee-induced wound healing, especially migration of cells. Therefore, current study was conducted to investigate the role of coffee extract in cell migration, especially fibroblast which is important for wound healing.METHODS: Coffea canephora beans were prepared, extracted and added in the NIH3T3 cell culture in final concentration of 2.5% and 5%. Then cytotoxicity test was performed using Na,30-[(phenylamino)-carbonyl]-3,4-tetrazolium]-bis(4-methoxy-6-nitro) benzenesulfonic acid hydrate (XTT) assay. Meanwhile, cell migration test was performed with scratch assay. All results were statistically analyzed.RESULTS: The 2.5% or 5% Coffea canephora beans extract (CCBE)-treated NIH3T3 cell numbers were almost similar with the numbers of NIH3T3 cells in starvation medium merely. Meanwhile, 2.5% and 5% CCBE showed significant decrease of the widths of scratched areas compared to starvation medium merely (ANOVA with LSD Post-hoc, p=0.000). After 24 h and 48 h, the average widths of 2.5% and 5% CCBE-treated scratched areas were 235.68±22.79, 50.36±5.29, 229.95±23.01, 27.68±2.83, respectively.CONCLUSION: Since both 2.5% and 5% CCBE are potential in inducing migration of fibroblast (NIH3T3 cell) and do not induce cytotoxicity, the CCBE could be potential as an agent for wound healing.KEYWORDS: coffee, Coffea canephora, NIH3T3, migration, cytotoxicity

The coffee industry relies on fundamental research to improve the techniques and processes related to its products. However, the exploitation of mathematical models that provide insight into improving the roasting of coffee beans has been largely unexplored. In this thesis, we develop mathematical models to understand specific processes in a roasting coffee bean that are crucial in flavour development and consistency. We explore these processes using several models in a multiphase framework to highlight how phase changes, gas pressures, and various chemical reactions occur in different parts of the bean. These new models are then compared to new and existing experimental data, where the merits and pitfalls of each model are then discussed. One main phenomenon that is crucial to the roasting process is the evaporation of water. Various models of evaporation rates are proposed and incorporated into the multiphase models, where the resulting qualitative features of the behaviour are discussed. The behaviour of these multiphase models is studied using asymptotic analysis and the leading-order water and vapour transport predicted from this analysis faithfully reproduce the salient features of the model. We also examine how deformations and material stresses occur during the roasting process. We model the cellulose structure of a coffee bean as a poroviscoelastic material and couple the resulting constitutive equations with aforementioned multiphase models. The qualitative behaviour of this coupled model is discussed for various parameter regimes and used to explain various physical phenomena observed during the roasting process. A summary of key findings is then presented.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à déterminer les régions possibles de croissance Aspergillus Ochraceus (O.A.) lors du séchage du café. Il est admis que ce champignon qui produit une toxine (Ochratoxine A), se développe pour une activité de l'eau supérieure à 0,8. La structure interne du grain de café est étudiée par microscopie, stéréoscopie et RMN. Ces observations mettent en évidence une grande hétérogénéité de structure à l'échelle du grain et à l'échelle cellulaire. Les isothermes de désorption pour cinq parties du grain sont établies. Mis à part la parche qui présente une structure ligneuse, il n'a pas été mis en évidence de différences notables des isothermes dans les autres parties du grain. L'étude des transferts d'eau est focalisée à la surface du grain, site privilégié de la croissance d'O.A. où trois structures présentent une résistance au transfert d'eau : l'endosperme, la couche argentée, la parche. Dans l'endosperme, le transport est décrit par une loi de diffusion. Pour des teneurs en eau supérieures à 65%, un coefficient de diffusion constant décrit bien la cinétique d'un grain entier. Au dessous de cette teneur en eau, le coefficient de diffusion décroit avec la teneur en eau. Ceci est dû, d'une part, à la réduction de l'espace poral occupé par l'eau et, d'autre part, à l'augmentation de la liaison entre l'eau et le squelette solide lorsque la teneur en eau diminue. Les essais de diffusion avec et sans la couche argentée montrent que la contribution de cette dernière est de l'ordre de 10%. Le flux d'eau dans la parche est supposé proportionnel à la différence d'activité de part et d'autre de celle-ci. Une technique expérimentale originale est proposée pour mesurer la résistance au transfert d'eau de la parche. Les résultats expérimentaux sont utilisés dans un modèle simple décrivant la cinétique et le profil d'activité de l'eau à la surface du grain. En fonction des conditions de séchage imposées, il devrait permettre de juger si l'environnement à la surface du grain est favorable ou non à la contamination du café.

Coffee production in Costa Rica has brought prosperity to many small farmers, but conflicts of interest with the companies which process and market coffee are still a problem. In addition, producers and processors are plagued by the periodic market cycles of agricultural commodities. Various agencies have promoted cooperatives to help small farmers deal with these problems, but they often fail due to poor management and lack of participation.
This thesis, a multi-layered study of coffee production, processing, and marketing, examines how household producers manage the constraints and opportunities posed by the international market, the Costa Rican state, and the coffee tree itself. A comparative analysis between cooperative and private coffee processors; between two rural communities; and among households in these communities provides the ethnographic context in which the effectiveness of cooperatives as mediating institutions between producers and the world market is analyzed.

The analysis of urinary metabolite changes can provide information on the effects of food supplements or health-promoting products on healthy subjects or animal models. Specimen collection is non-invasive, long-term experiments can be easily conducted and urinary biomarkers of oxidative stress can also be measured, offering the opportunity to study the effects of a nutritional intervention and evaluate the redox status of the considered organism. In this thesis, three natural extracts were selected, namely Polygonum cuspidatum Sieb. et Zucc. (rich in resveratrol), Vaccinium macrocarpon Aiton (cranberry, rich in type A procyanidins) and green Coffea canephora Pierre ex Froehn. beans (GCBE, rich in chlorogenic acids), on the basis of their distribution on the market and on the basis of the information regarding their in vivo activity actually available in literature. In the first part of the work, the effects of P. cuspidatum dry extract were studied in healthy adult rats during a 49-days supplementation, using a combined 1H NMR and UPLC-HRMS metabolomics approach. Because of the reported antioxidant activity of resveratrol, the urinary amounts of two oxidative stress biomarkers were measured by targeted HPLC–MS/MS analyses and, due to the supposed “anti-aging” effects of resveratrol, multivariate models were designed in order to compare the aging effects between control and treated animals. Specific biomarkers were then selected and identified, and their amounts in urine were monitored throughout the experimental period. UPLC-MS metabolomics approaches were used to evaluate the mode of action of cranberry against uropathogenic Escherichia coli in two independent experiments, using an animal model and enrolling healthy adult volunteers, respectively. The experimental design was similar for the two trials, and the aim was to observe if the results obtained from the first animal experiment were reproducible in humans, being cranberry supplements claimed for treatment of UTIs in human consumers. In the first experiment, healthy Sprague−Dawley rats were orally supplemented with a standardized cranberry extract for 35 days, to mimic a prolonged consumption of cranberry by healthy subjects. 24-h urinary outputs were collected weekly during the experiment, and samples were subjected to UPLC−MS analysis using an untargeted approach. In a second experiment on the same animal model, a single dose of cranberry was administered to animals and the changes of urinary composition at 2, 4, 8, and 24 h after extract administration were monitored. Anti-adhesive properties of all the urine samples were studied. Furthermore, the markers related to cranberry intake were discovered using a multivariate data analysis approach. Finally, a specific chromatographic method was developed for the measurement of unmodified PAC-A in urine. In the experiment involving human volunteers, these consumed an oral sachet containing 360 mg of dry cranberry extract and 100 mg of quercetin. Urine samples were collected at 2, 4, 6, 8 ad 24 hours after product administration and the anti-adhesive properties of urine samples were tested using an in vitro assay on E. coli. In order to correlate possible observed bioactivity with modification of urinary composition, LC-MS-based targeted and untargeted metabolomics approaches were used. Finally, a clinical trial on a small number of healthy adult volunteers was performed to study the effects of a prolonged (30 days) supplementation with 400 mg of green coffee bean extract. The 24-h urinary samples were collected weekly, and analyzed by LC-MS. Multivariate data analysis approaches were applied and also targeted analysis were performed to measure urinary oxidative stress biomarkers, namely allantoin and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), in order to assess the potential antioxidant activity of GCBE in vivo.
L’analisi del metaboloma urinario e delle sue variazioni può fornire utili informazioni sull’effetto del consumo di prodotti nutraceutici da parte di volontari sani o in modelli animali. I vantaggi di usare l’urina come matrice di studio sono correlati alla scarsa invasività di campionamento, al semplice trattamento pre-analitico dei campioni, alla possibilità di progettare e condurre esperimenti a lungo termine ed alla possibilità di quantificare alcuni markers di stress ossidativo. Sulla base della loro attuale diffusione sul mercato e dei dati di bioattività disponibili in letteratura, per il lavoro di tesi qui presentato sono stati presi in esame tre prodotti nutraceutici, contenenti rispettivamente estratti secchi di Polygonum cuspidatum Sieb. et Zucc. (contenente resveratrolo), Vaccinium macrocarpon Aiton (cranberry, contenente proantocianidine di tipo A) e semi verdi di Coffea canephora Pierre ex Froehn. (GCBE, contenente derivati dell’acido clorogenico). Nella prima parte di lavoro sono stati studiati gli effetti del consumo di un estratto secco di Polygonum cuspidatum per 49 giorni in ratti adulti sani, impiegando un approccio metabolomico combinato NMR/UPLC-MS. Per studiare l’effetto “anti-aging” attribuito al resveratrolo, sono stati sviluppati dei modelli multivariati in cui sono stati posti a confronto il gruppo “trattato” ed il gruppo di controllo; da questi sono stati selezionati ed identificati specifici biomarkers di invecchiamento, i quali livelli urinari sono stati poi monitorati per tutto il corso dell’esperimento. Un simile approccio UPLC-MS è stato in seguito impiegato per studiare l’attività ex vivo di un estratto secco di cranberry contro un ceppo di Escherichia coli uropatogenico. In questo caso sono stati disegnati due esperimenti indipendenti, in cui gli effetti del trattamento sono stati studiati rispettivamente in ratti sani ed in volontari umani. Nel primo esperimento è stato somministrato un estratto secco di cranberry standardizzato in procianidine per 35 giorni a ratti Sprague-Dawley, per mimare un consumo prolungato di cranberry da parte di pazienti umani. Settimanalmente è stata effettuata la raccolta delle urine delle 24 ore, ed i campioni raccolti sono stati analizzati mediante un approccio untargeted UPLC-MS. Impiegando lo stesso modello animale, è stata effettuata una singola somministrazione di cranberry e la variazione della composizione urinaria è stata studiata a 2, 4, 8 e 24 ore dopo il trattamento. Gli stessi campioni sono stati utilizzati per testarne le proprietà antiadesive contro Escherichia coli e per determinare i markers urinari correlati all’assunzione di cranberry, grazie all’impiego di tecniche statistiche multivariate ed allo sviluppo di specifici metodi cromatografici atti alla determinazione di PAC-A intatte in matrice urinaria. Nel secondo esperimento, ai volontari umani sani è stato chiesto di consumare un integratore contenente 360 mg di estratto secco di cranberry e 100 mg di quercetina. I campioni urinari sono stati raccolti a 2, 4, 6, 8 e 24 ore a seguito del trattamento e le loro proprietà antiadesive sono state testate contro un ceppo di E. coli uropatogenico. In modo da correlare l’attività biologica osservata in vitro con la modifica composizionale indotta dal trattamento, sono stai impiegati degli approcci LC-MS targeted e untargeted. Infine, è stato condotto uno studio clinico su un piccolo numero di volontari sani per studiare gli effetti di una integrazione con 400 mg di GCBE per 30 giorni. I campioni urinari delle 24 ore sono stati raccolti settimanalmente ed in seguito analizzati mediante LC-MS ed analisi statistica multivariata. Sono state eseguite analisi targeted per quantificare biomarkers urinari di stress ossidativo, al fine di valutare la potenziale attività antiossidante di GCBE in vivo.

A escalada tarifária, isto é, o emprego de tarifas de importação crescentes conforme o grau de processamento de um produto estimula a importação de produtos primários em detrimento dos processados nos mercados importadores que a exercem. O objetivo deste trabalho foi mensurar os ganhos ao Brasil da eliminação da escalada tarifária em produtos do café na UE, e da soja na China e na UE, e comparar com a redução da escalada proposta na Rodada Doha da OMC. Foram simuladas reduções tarifárias e quantificados os impactos comerciais através da modelagem de equilíbrio parcial segundo Laird e Yeats (1986). Pelos resultados, as negociações sob Doha podem reduzir a escalada tarifária incidente sobre os produtos analisados, no entanto, sem a eliminar, o que requereria maiores cortes nas tarifas de importação. Os impactos comerciais, que se mostraram mais expressivos na simulação de eliminação da escalada tarifária do que na de redução sob Doha, indicaram favorecimento das exportações brasileiras de produtos processados, relativamente às de primários. Na UE, o aumento no valor das importações dos produtos brasileiros processados do café e da soja seria 75,4% maior com a eliminação da escalada tarifária do que com a redução conforme Doha. Na China, a possibilidade de eliminação da escalada tarifária também acarretaria em resultados mais expressivos que os obtidos pela redução: 27,4% a mais de farelo, e cerca de 100% e 107% no caso do óleo de soja em bruto e refinado, respectivamente. O objetivo complementar desse trabalho foi verificar os impactos do Diferencial Tributário de Exportação como instrumento para compensar os desestímulos ao processamento doméstico de produtos da soja resultantes da escalada tarifária nos mercados importadores. Assim, foram construídos cenários nacionais de tributação combinados com a aplicação de escalada tarifária nos mercados da UE e da China para verificar os impactos em termos de variação na margem de esmagamento do setor. Pelos resultados, a margem de esmagamento da soja esteve ampliada nos mercados importadores devido às tarifas de importação em: US$ 4,89 por tonelada (ou em 13%) na UE e US$ 14,46 (ou em 37%) na China, em média, em 2007. Na simulação de manutenção da taxação nacional como antes da Lei Kandir, a margem de esmagamento no Brasil poderia ter sido elevada em média em US$ 5,74 (ou 15%) durante o período analisado. Esse aumento teria sido suficiente para contrapor os efeitos da escalada tarifária da UE, mas não da China. O DTE argentino também foi considerado. No período analisado, o aumento da margem interna de esmagamento não se mostrou suficiente para contrabalançar totalmente os efeitos da escalada tarifária da China e da UE. Ainda assim, o aumento de margem proporcionado pôde favorecer o exportador argentino de produtos processados em detrimento do brasileiro na situação corrente. Considerando que, no caso da soja, a Argentina consiste no principal concorrente do Brasil e mantém uma política tributária que favorece a indústria doméstica de processamento em detrimento dos competidores, cabe a defesa do disciplinamento do DTE internacionalmente, além da eliminação da escalada tarifária nos mercados importadores.
Tariff escalation, which is the use of import tariffs that grow according to the processing level of a product, stimulates the imports of primary commodities rather than processed products in importing markets that apply this tool. This papers goal was to measure the gains to Brazil of the elimination of the tariff escalation in coffee products in EU, and soybean products in China and EU. In addition, it aimed to compare these gains to those obtained from the reduction of the tariff escalation, which is being proposed under WTOs Doha Round. Tariff cuts were simulated and trade gains were quantified through Laird e Yeats (1986) modeling of partial equilibrium. The results indicated that Doha negotiations could reduce the tariff escalation currently applied over coffee and soybean chains in the selected markets. However, they are not enough to eliminate them, which would require larger tariff cuts. The increase in EU imports of coffee and soybean processed products from Brazil due to tariff escalation elimination could be 75.4% higher than considering only its reduction under Doha. In China, the tariff escalation elimination would also imply in larger volume of imports than those obtained from the tariff reduction under Doha: 27.4% more of meal, and nearly 100% and 107% of soybean oil, crude and refined, respectively. This paper additional goal was to identify the impacts of the Differential Exports Taxes DTE as a tool to counterbalance the negative impacts over soybean exporting countries of the tariff escalation applied by importing markets. To achieve this goal, national scenarios of export taxes were built up and added to the tariff escalation in the EU and China in order to obtain the impacts in terms of variation of the sectors processing margin. According to the results, due to the import tariffs, the processing margin in the importing markets has been expanded as follows: in US$ 4.89 per tonne (or 13%) in the EU and in US$ 14.46 (or 37%) in China, along of 2007 in average. Simulating the national taxation such as before Kandir law, the soybeans processing margin in Brasil could have been raised by US$ 5.74 (or 15%) in average along of the analyzed period. That expansion would have been enough to compensate the effects of the tariff escalation of the EU, but not the one applied by China. The DTE for soybeans in Argentina was also considered. For the analyzed period, the increase in the internal processing margin was not enough to totally offset China and EU tariff escalation effects. Nevertheless, the raise in the domestic processing margin contributed to benefit the exporters of processed products in Argentina in detriment of the Brazilians in the current situation. Considering that, in the soybean case, Argentina is Brazils main competitor and the country keeps a national taxation structure that favors the domestic processing industry in prejudice of Brazilian industry, it is important to consider the defense of DTE stricter rules internationally, besides the elimination of the tariff escalation in the importing markets.

A análise da qualidade de grãos é um dos gargalos encontrados na cadeia produtiva do setor cafeeiro, tendo em vista que atualmente é feita de forma manual. Buscando uma solução para o problema, este trabalho apresenta um método baseado em visão computacional e redes neurais artificiais para identificar vinte e uma classes de grãos de café em amostras. No total, 421 atributos de três diferentes naturezas- morfologia, cor e textura- foram reunidos para compor o conjunto de características utilizado pela rede neural. Os atributos morfológicos são: Descritores de Fourier, Descritores Genéricos de Fourier, Momentos de Zernike, elementos do Modelo Autorregressivo e um conjunto de atributos diversos. Após avaliar duas abordagens para os atributos de cor- histogramas de frequências de cor e atributos estatísticos desses histogramas- a segunda foi escolhida e, assim, os atributos de cor adotados foram: média, variância, obliquidade, energia, curtose, entropia e suavidade de histogramas globais de cor, calculados para os espaços de cor RGB, HSV, I1I2I3 e CIELAB. Visando um melhor desempenho, os descritores de Haralick foram modificados para que dois pixels de referência fossem utilizados no cálculo da matriz de coocorrência. A versão modificada dos descritores superou as originais, e assim, seus valores calculados com o espaço de cor I1I2I3 (aquele que apresentou melhor eficácia em testes) foram utilizados como atributos de textura. O conjunto de atributos foi arranjado em cinco subconjuntos, cada um contendo diferentes combinações das distintas naturezas de atributos e sendo associado a uma análise. Para cada subconjunto selecionaram-se os melhores elementos pelas técnicas chi-quadrado, ganho de informação e PCA (Principal Component Analysis). O resultado dessa seleção determinou as entradas para três processos classificatórios, que foram avaliados a fim de se determinar o mais efetivo. Após as avaliações, e sendo determinada a melhor configuração, o processo classificatório escolhido proporcionou a acurácia de 85,08%, superando trabalhos correlatos.
The quality asssessment of beans is one of the bottlenecks found in the production chain of the coffee industry, as nowadays it is done manually. Seeking a solution for the problem, this work presents a method based on computer vision with neural networks to identify twenty-one classes of coffee beans in samples. In total, 421 features of three different types- morphological, colour and textural- were gathered to compose the feature set used by the neural network. The morphological features were Fourier Descriptors, Generic Fourier Descriptors, Zernike Moments, elements from Autoregressive Model and a miscellaneous set. After evaluating two approaches of colour features- colour frequency histograms and statistics from those histograms- the latter was chosen and the colour features comprised the mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, energy, entropy and smoothness of global histograms calculated for the channels of the RGB, HSV, I1I2I3 and CIELAB colour spaces. Seeking better performance the Haralick features were modified, so two pixels were used as reference in the computation of the Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix. The modified versions of the features outperformed the original ones and their computations with the I1I2I3 colour space (the one that provided the best results in tests) were used as textural features. The feature set was then rearranged in five intersecting subsets, each one containing different combinations of the feature types and being associated with an analysis. For each subset the best elements were selected using the techniques PCA (Principal Component Analysis), chi-squared and information gain. The resulting selections were used to determine the inputs to three classification processes, which were evaluated in order to select the most effective. After all evaluations, and having determined the best configuration, the selected classification process yielded an overall accuracy of 85.08%, outperforming related works.

2007/2008
Questo lavoro mirato allo studio dello sviluppo del seme di Coffea arabica, avvalendosi di differenti tecniche microscopiche, ha cercato di dare un contributo agli studi effettuati precedentemente da Houk (1938), Mendes (1941), Dedecca (1957), Wormer (1966), Dentan (1977, 1985) e De Castro (2002, 2005) che hanno apportato nozioni fondamentali a riguardo. Il campionamento del materiale è stato effettuato da settembre 2006 a giugno 2007 su piante appartenenti al cv. Mundo Novo, all’Instituto Agronômico di Campinas (IAC, SP, Brasil). Sono stati raccolti quindi circa 60 campioni per ciascun stadio di sviluppo a scadenza bisettimanale dal momento della fioritura fino a completa maturazione del frutto, per un totale di 34 settimane after anthesis (AA). I campioni sono stati quindi subito fissati e spediti in laboratorio a Trieste (Italia). Per prima cosa è stata effettuata l’analisi dimensionale delle drupe su un pool di campioni scelto casualmente tra quelli arrivati in laboratorio usando un calibro digitale lungo tre linee di misura: lunghezza, asse maggiore e asse minore in millimetri, sia per le drupe che per i semi. I campioni selezionati sono stati inclusi in resina Technovit 7100 (dall’inizio della fioritura fino alla 20a settimana AA) e tagliati con un microtomo rotativo (sezioni da 6 µm). I campioni dalla 22a settimana in poi sono stati tagliati invece con un criostato a bassa temperatura (da -15°C a -25°C; sezioni da 10-12 µm), a causa dell’aumento della durezza del materiale. Sulle sezioni preparate sono state usate tecniche standard di osservazione in microscopia (ottica, SEM e TEM) e colorazioni istochimiche (ad es. Toluidin blue-O, Periodic Acid Schiff, DAPI etc.) ed è stata effettuata una messa a punto di protocolli specifici secondo la tipologia di tessuto osservata. I risultati dell’analisi dimensionale hanno permesso di distinguere tre fasi di crescita dei frutti: 1. fase di quiescenza fino a 4 settimane dopo la fioritura (‘after anthesis’, AA); 2. fase centrale di sviluppo rapido (da 6 a 14 settimane AA); 3. fase di maturazione (da 16 settimane AA in poi). La seconda fase è strettamente correlata alle condizioni climatiche del periodo, in particolare all’aumento della frequenza delle piogge. Nella fase di crescita lenta l’ovario osservato in sezione longitudinale presenta la tipica struttura della drupa del caffè con due camere ovariche che ospitano un ovulo anatropo ciascuna. L’ovulo è composto da un funicolo, da un unico tegumento proveniente dal tessuto materno e da una zona di pochi micron occupata dal sacco embrionale non ancora sviluppato. E’ presente anche l’‘otturatore’ che, in Coffea, è di derivazione funicolare, formato da parenchima, conduce il tubetto pollinico al micropilo. Dopo circa un mese (4a -6a settimana) non si evidenzia ancora una crescita dimensionale del seme degna di nota. Durante la fase centrale di sviluppo rapido il mesocarpo si accresce fino ad uno spessore di 0,6 mm. A 8 settimane il seme ha 2 mm e il sacco embrionale fecondato ha iniziato il suo sviluppo con l’accrescimento dell’endosperma, inizialmente di tipo nucleare. A 10 settimane il seme ha 3 mm. Il sacco embrionale è più grande (0,2 mm) ed è formato da circa una ventina di cellule dell’endosperma. A 12 settimane il seme raggiunge i 10 mm. L’endosperma ha circa 1 mm. In questo stadio si nota un particolare strato tissutale che rappresenta la parte del perisperma che diventerà pellicola argentea. In seguito inizia ad intravedersi la pellicola argentea, con alcune cellule ancora vive e nucleate, e il pergamino si sta formando grazie a particolari modificazioni dell’endocarpo della drupa. Il seme ha quasi raggiunto la sua dimensione definitiva, alla 14a settimana. Nella fase di maturazione la crescita dimensionale non è più così degna di nota, mentre si osservano cambiamenti chimici e strutturali. La 16a settimana è caratterizzata dalla quasi completa formazione della pellicola argentea, anche all’interno del solco. Molte cellule dell’endosperma sono in attività mitotica continua. Il pergamino invece è completamente formato a 18 settimane, caratterizzato da fibre fusiformi a pareti spesse. Dalla 20a settimana in poi, il tessuto dell’endosperma ormai formato ha ancora le cellule a pareti sottili (3 µm). In questa fase delicata il materiale ha caratteristiche intermedie, né duro né molle; il contenuto vacuolare delle cellule endospermiche si arricchisce di corpi proteici e strutture zuccherine, evidenziate con diverse colorazioni. L’embrione è formato e anche le sue cellule sono ricche di corpi proteici, evidenziati soprattutto con la colorazione UV-Schiff e l’osservazione in fluorescenza. Le cellule dell’endosperma alla 26a settimana hanno un contenuto vacuolare ancora ricco di proteine e le pareti diventano più spesse (4-6 µm). Si osserva la formazione di alcune nodosità (Dentan, 1977) tipiche delle pareti cellulari dell’endosperma, soprattutto vicino alla cavità embrionale. Lo sviluppo del seme completo viene raggiunto alla 30a settimana, stadio in cui anche l’embrione sembra aver concluso la propria maturazione. Le pareti cellulari hanno raggiunto il loro spessore definitivo (da 6 a 10 µm). Infine, all’ultimo stadio (34 settimane AA), le cellule presentano un aspetto differente, risultano quasi più svuotate ed è difficile osservare i componenti cellulari con le colorazioni utilizzate fino ad ora. La maggior parte delle pareti presentano nodosità. Queste caratteristiche rappresentano uno stadio di sovra-maturazione della drupa. Oltre agli aspetti puramente morfo-anatomici, l’abilità di sezionare i tessuti seminali potrebbe essere di grande importanza per eventuali analisi biomolecolari di espressione genica, come già è stato in parte studiato recentemente (De Castro & Marraccini, 2006). Conoscere infatti gli stadi di sviluppo e i tessuti coinvolti in ciascuna fase, dà la possibilità di evitare errori grossolani di interpretazione dei risultati e di stabilire relazioni interessanti fra la parte genetica e le osservazioni in microscopia.
XXI Ciclo
1975

One of the differences between types of coffee is the visual appearance of the coffee beans, but it takes long experience and extra precision to be able to distinguish from visual appearance. In this study, a deep learning architecture was developed for image classification based on the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The system was developed to distinguish the types of coffee in the Dampit area, Malang Regency. The first dataset for Dampit coffee beans consists of four classes, namely Kopi Lanang, Robusta Wine, Lanang Peaberry, and Arabica Semeru. The classification system that was built on the basis of a convolution layer and a classification layer based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) but experienced overfitting. So the solution is to use the GLCM method. The Kopi Dampit classification system can be carried out with application accuracy performance reaching 60% using the GLCM and ANN algorithms. In this study, the CNN method has not been able to optimize training data for making the Dampit's Coffee Bean classification system. The GLCM method can be a problem solution for classification cases with a minimum amount of data and pixel size. The computational load and accuracy are obtained so that the overfitting problem can be solved by the GLCM method.

The coffee beverage widely liked all over the world as articles of taste is extracted from roasted and milled coffee beans. The aroma with volatility compounds is a feature of coffee. A lot of extraction methods of coffee were researched. In this research, the underwater shock wave loading was tried to the roasted coffee bean to improve the extraction efficiency. The coffee extracted from the hot water by the filter method after the underwater shock wave loading compared the amounts of the extraction by the freeze-drying processing. In addition, extracted the volatility compounds were compared by the gas chromatography analysis. As a result, the change in the content of an excellent effect of the extraction and a volatility compound was confirmed.

In this study, the heat transfer and drying process of arabica coffee beans in a batch fluidized bed roaster has been studied. Herein, the discrete element method (DEM) has been used and modified to account for resolved 1D temperature and moisture content profiles within each single coffee bean. This approach has the strength to provide much more information on the global (fluidization, mixing) and local (particle data) level compared to existing coffee roaster models. Therefore, the product quality can be evaluated on-line by many more specific criteria beyond the averaged global particle temperature and moisture content. Instead, information of every single particle is available which includes heat and mass transfer coefficients, its local position inside the bed, collision forces, etc. Furthermore, the overall roaster performance is based on e.g. fluidization stability, mixing efficiency or uniformity of quality properties among all particles. More data are presented to account for a broader coffee bean roasting evaluation. Modeling results are in good agreement with experimental data.

Visible-Near Infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy combined with partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to classify Arabica and Robusta roasted coffee beans. The number of coffee beans analyzed was 200 samples consisting of 5 origins (Flores, Temanggung, Aceh Gayo, Jawa, and Toraja). Reflectance spectra with a wavelength of 450-950 nm were used to build two types of models, namely single-origin and general models. Single-origin Flores, Temanggung, Aceh Gayo, and Toraja models performed very well to classify coffee beans samples from the same origin with Sen, Spe, Acc, and Rel of 1, as well as TFN and TFP of 0. General PLS-DA model with baseline correction pretreatment yields Sen, Spe, Acc, and Rel of 0.97, as well as TFN and TFP of 0.04. Based on this paper, it was concluded that Vis-NIR combined with PLS-DA perform well in classifying roasted coffee beans based on the variety.

In 2020, WWF launched a consumer guide on plant-based products targeting Swedish consumers. The development of the guide is described in a journal paper (Karlsson Potter & Röös, 2021) and the environmental impact of different plant based foods was published in a report (Karlsson Potter, Lundmark, & Röös, 2020). This report was prepared for WWF Sweden to provide scientific background information for complementing the consumer guide with information on coffee, tea and cocoa. This report includes quantitative estimations for several environmental categories (climate, land use, biodiversity and water use) of coffee (per L), tea (per L) and cocoa powder (per kg), building on the previously established methodology for the consumer guide. In addition, scenarios of consumption of coffee, tea and cocoa drink with milk/plant-based drinks and waste at household level, are presented. Tea, coffee and cacao beans have a lot in common. They are tropical perennial crops traditionally grown in the shade among other species, i.e. in agroforestry systems. Today, the production in intensive monocultures has negative impact on biodiversity. Re-introducing agroforestry practices may be part of the solution to improve biodiversity in these landscapes. Climate change will likely, due to changes in temperature, extreme weather events and increases in pests and disease, alter the areas where these crops can be grown in the future. A relatively high ratio of the global land used for coffee, tea and cocoa is certified according to sustainability standards, compared to other crops. Although research on the implications of voluntary standards on different outcomes is inconclusive, the literature supports that certifications have a role in incentivizing more sustainable farming. Coffee, tea and cocoa all contain caffeine and have a high content of bioactive compounds such as antioxidants, and they have all been associated with positive health outcomes. While there is a strong coffee culture in Sweden and coffee contributes substantially to the environmental impact of our diet, tea is a less consumed beverage. Cocoa powder is consumed as a beverage, but substantial amounts of our cocoa consumption is in the form of chocolate. Roasted ground coffee on the Swedish market had a climate impact of 4.0 kg CO2e per kg powder, while the climate impact of instant coffee powder was 11.5 kg CO2e per kg. Per litre, including the energy use for making the coffee, the total climate impact was estimated to 0.25 kg CO2e per L brewed coffee and 0.16 kg CO2e per L for instant coffee. Less green coffee beans are needed to produce the same amount of ready to drink coffee from instant coffee than from brewed coffee. Tea had a climate impact of approximately 6.3 kg CO2 e per kg dry leaves corresponding to an impact of 0.064 CO2e per L ready to drink tea. In the assessment of climate impact per cup, tea had the lowest impact with 0.013 kg CO2e, followed by black instant coffee (0.024 kg CO2e), black coffee (0.038 kg CO2e), and cocoa drink made with milk (0.33 kg CO2e). The climate impact of 1kg cocoa powder on the Swedish market was estimated to 2.8 kg CO2e. Adding milk to coffee or tea increases the climate impact substantially. The literature describes a high proportion of the total climate impact of coffee from the consumer stage due to the electricity used by the coffee machine. However, with the Nordic low-carbon energy mix, the brewing and heating of water and milk contributes to only a minor part of the climate impact of coffee. As in previous research, coffee also had a higher land use, water use and biodiversity impact than tea per L beverage. Another factor of interest at the consumer stage is the waste of prepared coffee. Waste of prepared coffee contributes to climate impact through the additional production costs and electricity for preparation, even though the latter was small in our calculations. The waste of coffee and tea at Summary household level is extensive and measures to reduce the amount of wasted coffee and tea could reduce the environmental impact of Swedish hot drink consumption. For the final evaluation of coffee and tea for the consumer guide, the boundary for the fruit and vegetable group was used. The functional unit for coffee and tea was 1 L prepared beverage without any added milk or sweetener. In the guide, the final evaluation of conventionally grown coffee is that it is ‘yellow’ (‘Consume sometimes’), and for organic produce, ‘light green’ (‘Please consume). The evaluation of conventionally grown tea is that it is ‘light green’, and for organic produce, ‘dark green’ (‘Preferably consume this’). For cocoa, the functional unit is 1 kg of cocoa powder and the boundary was taken from the protein group. The final evaluation of conventionally grown cocoa is that it is ‘orange’ (‘Be careful’), and for organically produced cocoa, ‘light green’.

Coffs Harbour on the north coast of NSW is a highway city sandwiched between the Great Dividing Range and the Pacific Ocean. For thousands of years it was the traditional land of the numerous Gumbaynggirr peoples. Tourism now appears to be the major industry, supplanting agriculture and timber getting, while a large service sector has grown up around a sizable retirement community. It is major holiday destination. Located further away from the coast in the midst of a dairy farming community, Bellingen has become a centre of alternative culture which relies heavily on a variety of festivals activated by energetic tree changers and numerous professionals who have relocated from Sydney. Both communities rely on the visitor economy and there have been considerable changes to how local government in this region approach strategic planning for arts and culture. The newly built Coffs Harbour Education Campus (CHEC) is an experiment in encouraging cross pollination between innovative businesses and education and incorporates TAFE NSW, Coffs Harbour Senior College and Southern Cross University as well as the Coffs Harbour Technology Park and Coffs Harbour Innovation Centre all on one site. The 250 seat Jetty Memorial Theatre is the main theatre in Coffs Harbour for local and touring productions while local halls and converted theatres are the mainstay of smaller communities in the region. As peak body Arts Mid North Coast reports, there is a good record of successful arts related events which range across all genres of music, art, sculpture, Aboriginal culture, street art, literature and even busking and opera. These are mainly managed by passionate local volunteers.

This article discusses the current state of neurointerface technologies, not limited to deep electrode approaches. There are new heuristic ideas for creating a fast and broadband channel from the brain to artificial intelligence. One of the ideas is not to decipher the natural codes of nerve cells, but to create conditions for the development of a new language for communication between the human brain and artificial intelligence tools. Theoretically, this is possible if the brain "feels" that by changing the activity of nerve cells that communicate with the computer, it is possible to "achieve" the necessary actions for the body in the external environment, for example, to take a cup of coffee or turn on your favorite music. At the same time, an artificial neural network that analyzes the flow of nerve impulses must also be directed at the brain, trying to guess the body's needs at the moment with a minimum number of movements. The most important obstacle to further progress is the problem of biocompatibility, which has not yet been resolved. This is even more important than the number of electrodes and the power of the processors on the chip. When you insert a foreign object into your brain, it tries to isolate itself from it. This is a multidisciplinary topic not only for doctors and psychophysiologists, but also for engineers, programmers, mathematicians. Of course, the problem is complex and it will be possible to overcome it only with joint efforts.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.