Journal articles on the topic 'Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes)'
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Martin, Eric, Gérald Giraud, Yves Lejeune, and Géraldine Boudart. "Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard." Annals of Glaciology 32 (2001): 163–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819292.
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AbstractThe SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.
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Kang, Shichang, Yulan Zhang, Pengfei Chen, Junming Guo, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Susan Kaspari, et al. "Black carbon and organic carbon dataset over the Third Pole." Earth System Science Data 14, no. 2 (February 17, 2022): 683–707. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-683-2022.
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Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, also known as the Third Pole, play an important role in the global and regional climate and hydrological cycle. Carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), can directly or indirectly absorb and scatter solar radiation and change the energy balance on the Earth. CAs, along with the other atmospheric pollutants (e.g., mercury), can be frequently transported over long distances into the inland Tibetan Plateau. During the last decades, a coordinated monitoring network and research program named “Atmospheric Pollution and Cryospheric Changes” (APCC) has been gradually set up and continuously operated within the Third Pole regions to investigate the linkage between atmospheric pollutants and cryospheric changes. This paper presents a systematic dataset of BC, OC, water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), and water-insoluble organic carbon (WIOC) from aerosols (20 stations), glaciers (17 glaciers, including samples from surface snow and ice, snow pits, and 2 ice cores), snow cover (2 stations continuously observed and 138 locations surveyed once), precipitation (6 stations), and lake sediment cores (7 lakes) collected across the Third Pole, based on the APCC program. These data were created based on online (in situ) and laboratory measurements. High-resolution (daily scale) atmospheric-equivalent BC concentrations were obtained by using an Aethalometer (AE-33) in the Mt. Everest (Qomolangma) region, which can provide new insight into the mechanism of BC transportation over the Himalayas. Spatial distributions of BC, OC, WSOC, and WIOC from aerosols, glaciers, snow cover, and precipitation indicated different features among the different regions of the Third Pole, which were mostly influenced by emission sources, transport pathways, and deposition processes. Historical records of BC from ice cores and lake sediment cores revealed the strength of the impacts of human activity since the Industrial Revolution. BC isotopes from glaciers and aerosols identified the relative contributions of biomass and fossil fuel combustion to BC deposition on the Third Pole. Mass absorption cross sections of BC and WSOC from aerosol, glaciers, snow cover, and precipitation samples were also provided. This updated dataset is released to the scientific communities focusing on atmospheric science, cryospheric science, hydrology, climatology, and environmental science. The related datasets are presented in the form of excel files. BC and OC datasets over the Third Pole are available to download from the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center (https://doi.org/10.12072/ncdc.NIEER.db0114.2021; Kang and Zhang, 2021).
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Greene, Scott, Mark Morrissey, and Sara E. Johnson. "Wind Climatology, Climate Change, and Wind Energy." Geography Compass 4, no. 11 (November 2010): 1592–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00396.x.
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Masson, Valéry, Aude Lemonsu, Julia Hidalgo, and James Voogt. "Urban Climates and Climate Change." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 45, no. 1 (October 17, 2020): 411–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083623.
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Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather episodes, which are expected to increase with climate change. Cities also influence their own local climate, for example, through the relative warming known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This review discusses urban climate features (even in complex terrain) and processes. We then present state-of-the-art methodologies on the generalization of a common urban neighborhood classification for UHI studies, as well as recent developments in observation systems and crowdsourcing approaches. We discuss new modeling paradigms pertinent to climate impact studies, with a focus on building energetics and urban vegetation. In combination with regional climate modeling, new methods benefit the variety of climate scenarios and models to provide pertinent information at urban scale. Finally, this article presents how recent research in urban climatology contributes to the global agenda on cities and climate change.
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Nazarenko, Larissa, and Nickolai Tausnev. "Modeling of the Beaufort ice-ocean climatology change." Annals of Glaciology 33 (2001): 560–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781818491.
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AbstractA coupled ice-ocean model is used to study the sensitivity of the Beaufort Sea climatology to representation of sub-grid-scale eddies; to hypothetically not present and double Mackenzie River discharge; and to approximate climate warming specified through a surface air-temperature increase of 3° C. The eddy effect is considered in two ways: as eddy interaction with sea-floor topography yielding a driving force ("neptune" parameterization) and as eddy diffusion and viscosity. The model with neptune parameterization reproduces surface layer circulation, as well as the bathymetrically steered Beaufort Undercurrent, while the model with usual damping does not simulate the Beaufort Undercurrent. The absence of the strong boundary Beaufort Undercurrent affects the thermohaline structure of the Beaufort Sea which becomes less consistent with observational data. The increase of the Mackenzie River discharge causes more northward transport of sea ice, resulting in sea-ice thinning in Mackenzie Bay, while the absence of the Mackenzie River discharge induces southward sea-ice drift and sea-ice thickening in Mackenzie Bay. The sensitivity study of surface air-temperature warming shows a shrinkage of sea ice by 6% in area and 15% in volume, causing the freshening and warming of the surface ocean layer. The sensitivity studies of river discharge and surface air temperature use the neptune parameterization.
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Robinson, A., R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski. "An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change." Cryosphere 4, no. 2 (April 7, 2010): 129–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-129-2010.
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Abstract. In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.
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Papadimitriou, L. V., A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, and I. K. Tsanis. "High-end climate change impact on European water availability and stress: exploring the presence of biases." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 7 (July 31, 2015): 7267–325. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7267-2015.
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Abstract. Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target making higher end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analyzed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 vs. +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4 °C of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. It is also found that the selection of the observational dataset for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the RCM.
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Oo, Kyaw Than. "Climatology Definition of the Myanmar Southwest Monsoon (MSwM): Change Point Index (CPI)." Advances in Meteorology 2023 (January 25, 2023): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2346975.
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Myanmar’s climate is heavily influenced by its geographic location and relief. Located between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), Myanmar’s climate is distinguished by the alternation of seasons known as the monsoon. The north-south direction of peaks and valleys creates a pattern of alternate zones of heavy and scanty precipitation during both the northeast and southwest monsoons. The majority of the rainfall has come from Myanmar’s southwest monsoon (MSwM), which is Myanmar’s rainy season (summer in global terms, June–September). This study explained both threshold-based and nonthreshold-based objective definitions of the onset and withdrawal of large-scale MSwM. The seasonal transitions in MSwM circulation and precipitation are convincingly represented by the new index, which is based on change point detection of the atmospheric moisture flow converging in the MSwM region (10–28 N, 92–102 E). A transition in vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT), the reversal of surface winds, and an increase in precipitation may also be considered when defining MSwM onset objectively. We also define a change point of the MSwM (CPI) index for MSwM onset and withdrawal dates. The climatological mean onset of MSwM is day 135 (May 14), withdrawal is day 278 (October 4), and the total season length is 144 days. We are investigating spatial patterns of rainfall progression at and after the start of the monsoon, rather than transitions within a single region of the MSwM. The local southwest monsoon duration is well correlated with the CPI duration on interannual timescales, particularly in the peak rainfall regions, with a delay (advance) in large-scale onset or withdrawal associated with a delay (advance) of onset or withdrawal by local index. Hence, the next phase of this research is to study the maintenance and break of the monsoon to understand the underlying physical processes governing the monsoon circulation. The results of this study provide a possibility to reconstruct Myanmar’s monsoon climate dynamics, and the findings of this study can help unravel many remaining questions regarding the greater Asian monsoon system’s variability.
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Mallett, Robbie D. C., Julienne C. Stroeve, Michel Tsamados, Jack C. Landy, Rosemary Willatt, Vishnu Nandan, and Glen E. Liston. "Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover." Cryosphere 15, no. 5 (June 4, 2021): 2429–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2429-2021.
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Abstract. Mean sea ice thickness is a sensitive indicator of Arctic climate change and is in long-term decline despite significant interannual variability. Current thickness estimations from satellite radar altimeters employ a snow climatology for converting range measurements to sea ice thickness, but this introduces unrealistically low interannual variability and trends. When the sea ice thickness in the period 2002–2018 is calculated using new snow data with more realistic variability and trends, we find mean sea ice thickness in four of the seven marginal seas to be declining between 60 %–100 % faster than when calculated with the conventional climatology. When analysed as an aggregate area, the mean sea ice thickness in the marginal seas is in statistically significant decline for 6 of 7 winter months. This is observed despite a 76 % increase in interannual variability between the methods in the same time period. On a seasonal timescale we find that snow data exert an increasingly strong control on thickness variability over the growth season, contributing 46 % in October but 70 % by April. Higher variability and faster decline in the sea ice thickness of the marginal seas has wide implications for our understanding of the polar climate system and our predictions for its change.
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Dunkerley, David. "Sub-Daily Rainfall Intensity Extremes: Evaluating Suitable Indices at Australian Arid and Wet Tropical Observing Sites." Water 11, no. 12 (December 11, 2019): 2616. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11122616.
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Rainfall intensity extremes are relevant to many aspects of climatology, climate change, and landsurface processes. Intensity is described and analysed using a diversity of approaches, reflecting its importance in these diverse areas. The characteristics of short-interval intensity extremes, such as the maximum 5-min intensity, are explored here. It is shown that such indices may have marked diurnal cycles, as well as seasonal variability. Some indices of intensity, such as the SDII (simple daily intensity index), provide too little information for application to landsurface processes. Upper percentiles of the intensity distribution, such as the 95th and 99th percentiles (Q95 and Q99) are used as indices of extreme intensity, but problematically are affected by changes in intensity below the nominated threshold, as well as above it, making the detection of secular change, and application to sites with contrasting rainfall character, challenging. For application to landsurface processes, a new index is introduced. This index (RQ95), is that intensity or rainfall rate above which 5% of the total rainfall is delivered. This index better reflects intense rainfall than does Q95 of even 5-min accumulation duration (AD) rainfall depths. Such an index is helpful for detecting secular change at an observing station, but, like Q95, remains susceptible to the effects of change elsewhere in the distribution of intensities. For understanding impacts of climate and climate change on landsurface processes, it is argued that more inclusive indices of intensity are required, including fixed intensity criteria.
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Brönnimann, S., T. Lehmann, T. Griesser, T. Ewen, A. N. Grant, and R. Bleisch. "Can we reconstruct Arctic sea ice back to 1900 with a hybrid approach?" Climate of the Past Discussions 4, no. 4 (August 19, 2008): 955–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-4-955-2008.
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Abstract. The variability and trend of Arctic sea ice since the mid 1970s is well documented and linked to rising temperatures. However, much less is known for the first half of the 20th century, when the Arctic also underwent a period of strong warming. For studying this period in atmospheric models, gridded sea ice data are needed as boundary conditions. Current data sets (e.g., HadISST) provide a historical climatology, but may not be suitable when interannual-to-decadal variability is important, as they are interpolated and relaxed towards a (historical) climatology to fill in gaps, particularly in winter. Regional historical sea ice information exhibits considerable variability on interannnual-to-decadal scales, but is only available for summer and not in gridded form. Combining the advantages of both types of information could be used to constrain model simulations in a more realistic way. Here we discuss the feasibility of reconstructing year-round gridded Arctic sea ice from 1900 to 1953 from historical information and a coupled climate model. We decompose sea ice variability into centennial (due to climate forcings), decadal (coupled processes in the ocean-sea ice system) and interannual time scales (atmospheric circulation). The three time scales are represented by a historical climatology from HadISST (centennial), a closest analogue approach using the coupled control run of the CCSM-3.0 model (decadal), and a statistical reconstruction based on high-pass filtered data (interannual variability), respectively. Results show that differences in the model climatology, the length of the control run, and inconsistent historical data strongly limit the quality of the product. However, with more realistic and longer simulations becoming available in the future as well as with improved historical data, useful reconstructions are possible. We suggest that hybrid approaches, using both statistical reconstruction methods and numerical models, may find wider applications in the future.
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Seager, Richard, Timothy J. Osborn, Yochanan Kushnir, Isla R. Simpson, Jennifer Nakamura, and Haibo Liu. "Climate Variability and Change of Mediterranean-Type Climates." Journal of Climate 32, no. 10 (April 29, 2019): 2887–915. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0472.1.
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Abstract Mediterranean-type climates are defined by temperate, wet winters, and hot or warm dry summers and exist at the western edges of five continents in locations determined by the geography of winter storm tracks and summer subtropical anticyclones. The climatology, variability, and long-term changes in winter precipitation in Mediterranean-type climates, and the mechanisms for model-projected near-term future change, are analyzed. Despite commonalities in terms of location in the context of planetary-scale dynamics, the causes of variability are distinct across the regions. Internal atmospheric variability is the dominant source of winter precipitation variability in all Mediterranean-type climate regions, but only in the Mediterranean is this clearly related to annular mode variability. Ocean forcing of variability is a notable influence only for California and Chile. As a consequence, potential predictability of winter precipitation variability in the regions is low. In all regions, the trend in winter precipitation since 1901 is similar to that which arises as a response to changes in external forcing in the models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. All Mediterranean-type climate regions, except in North America, have dried and the models project further drying over coming decades. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical processes are responsible: development of a winter ridge over the Mediterranean that suppresses precipitation and of a trough west of the North American west coast that shifts the Pacific storm track equatorward. In the Southern Hemisphere, mixed dynamic–thermodynamic changes are important that place a minimum in vertically integrated water vapor change at the coast and enhance zonal dry advection into Mediterranean-type climate regions inland.
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RYBAL’SKIJ, NIKOLAY, GALINA CHERNOGAEVA, NINA ZAJCEVA, and VALERIY SNAKIN. "GLOBAL ECOLOGIST: TO THE 90TH ANNIVERSARY OF ACADEMICIAN YU.A. ISRAEL." LIFE OF THE EARTH 42, no. 3 (August 26, 2020): 343–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.29003/m1487.0514-7468.2020_42_3/343-354.
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On May, 15 it would have been 90 years of Yuri Antonovich Izrael (15.05.1930-23.01.2014). He was an outstanding scientist, world-renowned specialist in geophysics, ecology and climatology, talented science organizer, great statesman and public fi brilliant teacher and remarkable man, head of the Soviet Hydrometeorological Service, chief editor of «Metrology and hydrology» magazine, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), coordinator for IPCC questions in Russia, founder and director of the Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, president of the Russian Academy of Ecology, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Yu. A. Israel’s creative path and scientific contribution to the investigation of global nature processes, particularly climate changes and ability of their regulation are considered.
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Mutz, Sebastian G., Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li. "Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens." Earth Surface Dynamics 6, no. 2 (April 6, 2018): 271–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018.
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Abstract. The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.
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Camargo, Suzana J., Claudia F. Giulivi, Adam H. Sobel, Allison A. Wing, Daehyun Kim, Yumin Moon, Jeffrey D. O. Strong, et al. "Characteristics of Model Tropical Cyclone Climatology and the Large-Scale Environment." Journal of Climate 33, no. 11 (June 1, 2020): 4463–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0500.1.
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AbstractHere we explore the relationship between the global climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models and the modeled large-scale environment across a large number of models. We consider the climatology of TCs in 30 climate models with a wide range of horizontal resolutions. We examine if there is a systematic relationship between the climatological diagnostics for the TC activity [number of tropical cyclones (NTC) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)] by hemisphere in the models and the environmental fields usually associated with TC activity, when examined across a large number of models. For low-resolution models, there is no association between a conducive environment and TC activity, when integrated over space (tropical hemisphere) and time (all years of the simulation). As the model resolution increases, for a couple of variables, in particular vertical wind shear, there is a statistically significant relationship in between the models’ TC characteristics and the environmental characteristics, but in most cases the relationship is either nonexistent or the opposite of what is expected based on observations. It is important to stress that these results do not imply that there is no relationship between individual models’ environmental fields and their TC activity by basin with respect to intraseasonal or interannual variability or due to climate change. However, it is clear that when examined across many models, the models’ mean state does not have a consistent relationship with the models’ mean TC activity. Therefore, other processes associated with the model physics, dynamical core, and resolution determine the climatological TC activity in climate models.
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Qu, Xin, and Alex Hall. "Assessing Snow Albedo Feedback in Simulated Climate Change." Journal of Climate 19, no. 11 (June 1, 2006): 2617–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3750.1.
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Abstract In this paper, the two factors controlling Northern Hemisphere springtime snow albedo feedback in transient climate change are isolated and quantified based on scenario runs of 17 climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The first factor is the dependence of planetary albedo on surface albedo, representing the atmosphere's attenuation effect on surface albedo anomalies. It is potentially a major source of divergence in simulations of snow albedo feedback because of large differences in simulated cloud fields in Northern Hemisphere land areas. To calculate the dependence, an analytical model governing planetary albedo was developed. Detailed validations of the analytical model for two of the simulations are shown, version 3 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global coupled Climate Model 2.0 (CM2.0), demonstrating that it facilitates a highly accurate calculation of the dependence of planetary albedo on surface albedo given readily available simulation output. In all simulations it is found that surface albedo anomalies are attenuated by approximately half in Northern Hemisphere land areas as they are transformed into planetary albedo anomalies. The intermodel standard deviation in the dependence of planetary albedo on surface albedo is surprisingly small, less than 10% of the mean. Moreover, when an observational estimate of this factor is calculated by applying the same method to the satellite-based International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data, it is found that most simulations agree with ISCCP values to within about 10%, despite further disagreements between observed and simulated cloud fields. This suggests that even large relative errors in simulated cloud fields do not result in significant error in this factor, enhancing confidence in climate models. The second factor, related exclusively to surface processes, is the change in surface albedo associated with an anthropogenically induced temperature change in Northern Hemisphere land areas. It exhibits much more intermodel variability. The standard deviation is about ⅓ of the mean, with the largest value being approximately 3 times larger than the smallest. Therefore this factor is unquestionably the main source of the large divergence in simulations of snow albedo feedback. To reduce the divergence, attention should be focused on differing parameterizations of snow processes, rather than intermodel variations in the attenuation effect of the atmosphere on surface albedo anomalies.
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Cook, Kerry H., and Edward K. Vizy. "Coupled Model Simulations of the West African Monsoon System: Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations." Journal of Climate 19, no. 15 (August 1, 2006): 3681–703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3814.1.
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Abstract The ability of coupled GCMs to correctly simulate the climatology and a prominent mode of variability of the West African monsoon is evaluated, and the results are used to make informed decisions about which models may be producing more reliable projections of future climate in this region. The integrations were made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The evaluation emphasizes the circulation characteristics that support the precipitation climatology, and the physical processes of a “rainfall dipole” variability mode that is often associated with dry conditions in the Sahel when SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea are anomalously warm. Based on the quality of their twentieth-century simulations over West Africa in summer, three GCMs are chosen for analysis of the twenty-first century integrations under various assumptions about future greenhouse gas increases. Each of these models behaves differently in the twenty-first-century simulations. One model simulates severe drying across the Sahel in the later part of the twenty-first century, while another projects quite wet conditions throughout the twenty-first century. In the third model, warming in the Gulf of Guinea leads to more modest drying in the Sahel due to a doubling of the number of anomalously dry years by the end of the century. An evaluation of the physical processes that cause these climate changes, in the context of the understanding about how the system works in the twentieth century, suggests that the third model provides the most reasonable projection of the twenty-first-century climate.
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Dirmeyer, P. A., G. Fang, Z. Wang, P. Yadav, and A. D. Milton. "Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle in CMIP5 projections." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11, no. 7 (July 25, 2014): 8537–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-8537-2014.
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Abstract. Results from ten global climate change models are synthesized to investigate changes in extremes, defined as wettest and driest deciles in precipitation, soil moisture and runoff based on each model's historical twentieth century simulated climatology. Under a moderate warming scenario, regional increases in drought frequency are found with little increase in floods. For more severe warming, both drought and flood become much more prevalent, with nearly the entire globe significantly affected. Soil moisture changes tend toward drying while runoff trends toward flood. To determine how different sectors of society dependent the on various components of the surface water cycle may be affected, changes in monthly means and interannual variability are compared to data sets of crop distribution and river basin boundaries. For precipitation, changes in interannual variability can be important even when there is little change in the long-term mean. Over 20% of the globe is projected to experience a combination of reduced precipitation and increased variability under severe warming. There are large differences in the vulnerability of different types of crops, depending on their spatial distributions. Increases in soil moisture variability are again found to be a threat even where soil moisture is not projected to decrease. The combination of increased variability and greater annual discharge over many basins portends increased risk of river flooding, although a number of basins are projected to suffer surface water shortages.
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Kovilakam, Mahesh, Larry W. Thomason, Nicholas Ernest, Landon Rieger, Adam Bourassa, and Luis Millán. "The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (version 2.0): 1979–2018." Earth System Science Data 12, no. 4 (October 31, 2020): 2607–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2607-2020.
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Abstract. A robust stratospheric aerosol climate data record enables the depiction of the radiative forcing of this highly variable component of climate. In addition to the radiative forcing, stratospheric aerosol also plays a key role in the chemical processes leading to ozone depletion. Therefore, stratospheric aerosol is one of the crucial parameters in understanding climate change in the past and potential changes in the future. As a part of Stratospheric-tropospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) activity, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) was created (Thomason et al., 2018) to support the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016). This data set is a follow-on to one created as a part of SPARC's Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (ASAP) activity (SPARC, 2006) and a data created for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) in 2012 (Eyring and Lamarque, 2012). Herein, we discuss changes to the original release version including those as a part of v1.1 that was released in September 2018 that primarily corrects an error in the conversion of Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) data to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II wavelengths, as well as the new release, v2.0. Version 2.0 is focused on improving the post-SAGE II era (after 2005) with the goal of mitigating elevated aerosol extinction in the lower stratosphere at mid- and high latitudes noted in v1.0 as noted in Thomason et al. (2018). Changes include the use of version 7.0 of the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS), the recently released Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar Level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile monthly product and the new addition of SAGE III/ISS. Here, we use an observed relationship between (i) OSIRIS extinction at 750 nm and (ii) SAGE II and SAGE III/ISS extinction at 525 nm to derive an altitude–latitude-based monthly climatology of Ångström exponent to compute OSIRIS extinction at 525 nm, resulting in a better agreement between OSIRIS and SAGE measurements. We employ a similar approach to convert OSIRIS 750 nm extinction to 1020 nm extinction for the post-SAGE II period. Additionally, we incorporate the recently released standard CALIPSO stratospheric aerosol profile monthly product into GloSSAC with an improved conversion technique of the 532 nm backscatter coefficient to extinction using an observed relationship between OSIRIS 525 nm extinction and CALIPSO 532 nm backscatter. SAGE III/ISS data are also incorporated in GloSSAC to extend the climatology to the present and to test the approach used to correct OSIRIS/CALIPSO data. The GloSSAC v2.0 netCDF file is accessible at https://doi.org/10.5067/glossac-l3-v2.0 (Thomason, 2020).
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Tölle, M. H., C. Moseley, O. Panferov, G. Busch, and A. Knohl. "Water supply patterns over Germany under climate change conditions." Biogeosciences 10, no. 5 (May 2, 2013): 2959–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2959-2013.
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Abstract. A large ensemble of 24 bias-corrected and uncorrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations is used to investigate climate change impacts on water supply patterns over Germany using the seasonal winter and summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on 6-month precipitation sums. The climate change signal is studied comparing SPI characteristics for the reference period 1971–2000 with those of the "near" (2036–2065) and the "far" (2071–2100) future. The spread of the climate change signal within the simulation ensemble of bias-corrected versus non-corrected data is discussed. Ensemble scenarios are evaluated against available observation-based data over the reference period 1971–2000. After correcting the model biases, the model ensemble underestimates the variability of the precipitation climatology in the reference period, but replicates the mean characteristics. Projections of water supply patterns based on the SPI for the time periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 show wetter winter months during both future time periods. As a result soil drying may be delayed to late spring extending into the summer period, which could have an important effect on sensible heat fluxes. While projections indicate wetting in summer during 2036–2065, drier summers are estimated towards the south-west of Germany for the end of the 21st century. The use of the bias correction intensifies the signal to wetter conditions for both seasons and time periods. The spread in the projection of future water supply patterns between the ensemble members is explored, resulting in high spatial differences that suggest a higher uncertainty of the climate change signal in the southern part of Germany. It is shown that the spread of the climate change signals between SPIs based on single ensemble members is twice as large as the difference between the mean climate change signal of SPIs based on bias-corrected and uncorrected precipitation. This implies that the sensitivity of the SPI to the modelled precipitation bias is small compared to the range of the climate change signals within our ensemble. Therefore, the SPI is a very useful tool for climate change studies allowing us to avoid the additional uncertainties caused by bias corrections.
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Del Genio, Anthony D., William Kovari, Mao-Sung Yao, and Jeffrey Jonas. "Cumulus Microphysics and Climate Sensitivity." Journal of Climate 18, no. 13 (July 1, 2005): 2376–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3413.1.
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Abstract Precipitation processes in convective storms are potentially a major regulator of cloud feedback. An unresolved issue is how the partitioning of convective condensate between precipitation-size particles that fall out of updrafts and smaller particles that are detrained to form anvil clouds will change as the climate warms. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations of tropical oceanic convective storms indicate higher precipitation efficiency at warmer sea surface temperature (SST) but also suggest that cumulus anvil sizes, albedos, and ice water paths become insensitive to warming at high temperatures. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data show that instantaneous cirrus and deep convective cloud fractions are positively correlated and increase with SST except at the highest temperatures, but are sensitive to variations in large-scale vertical velocity. A simple conceptual model based on a Marshall–Palmer drop size distribution, empirical terminal velocity–particle size relationships, and assumed cumulus updraft speeds reproduces the observed tendency for detrained condensate to approach a limiting value at high SST. These results suggest that the climatic behavior of observed tropical convective clouds is intermediate between the extremes required to support the thermostat and adaptive iris hypotheses.
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CHRISTIAN, JOHN ERICH, MICHELLE KOUTNIK, and GERARD ROE. "Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate." Journal of Glaciology 64, no. 246 (July 23, 2018): 675–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.57.
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ABSTRACTThe widespread retreat of mountain glaciers is a striking emblem of recent climate change. Yet mass-balance observations indicate that many glaciers are out of equilibrium with current climate, meaning that observed retreats do not show the full response to warming. This is a fundamental consequence of glacier dynamics: mountain glaciers typically have multidecadal response timescales, and so their response lags centennial-scale climate trends. A substantial difference between transient and equilibrium glacier length persists throughout the warming period; we refer to this length difference as ‘disequilibrium’. Forcing idealized glacier geometries with gradual warming shows that the glacier response timescale fundamentally governs the evolution of disequilibrium. Comparing a hierarchy of different glacier models suggests that accurate estimates of ice thickness and climatology, which control the timescale, are more important than higher order ice dynamics for capturing disequilibrium. Current glacier disequilibrium has previously been estimated for a selection of individual glaciers; our idealized modeling shows that sustained disequilibrium is a fundamental response of glacier dynamics, and is robust across a range of glacier geometries. This implies that many mountain glaciers are committed to additional, kilometer-scale retreats, even without further warming. Disequilibrium must also be addressed when calibrating glacier models used for climate reconstructions and projections of retreat in response to future warming.
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Lémond, J., Ph Dandin, S. Planton, R. Vautard, C. Pagé, M. Déqué, L. Franchistéguy, et al. "DRIAS: a step toward Climate Services in France." Advances in Science and Research 6, no. 1 (July 7, 2011): 179–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-6-179-2011.
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Abstract. DRIAS (Providing access to Data on French Regionalized climate scenarios and Impacts on the environment and Adaptation of Societies) is a 2-yr project (2010–2012). It is funded by the GICC (Management and Impact of Climate Change) program of the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transportation, and Housing (MEDDTL). DRIAS is to provide easy access to French regional climate data and products in order to facilitate mitigation and adaptation studies. The DRIAS project focuses on existing French regional climate projections obtained from national modelling groups such as: IPSL, CERFACS, and CNRM. It is more than a data server, it also delivers all kinds of climate information from numerical data to tailored climate products. Moreover, guidance is to be provided to end-users in order to promote best practices and know-how. Whilst the project is coordinated by the Department of Climatology at Météo-France, a multidisciplinary group of users and stakeholders at large concerned by climate change issues is also involved with the project. The ultimate goal will be to identify societal needs, validate the decision making processes, and thus facilitate exchanges between producers and practitioners. Key results from the DRIAS project will contribute to the implementation of French Climate Services.
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Martin, G. M., and R. C. Levine. "The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family." Earth System Dynamics 3, no. 2 (November 28, 2012): 245–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-245-2012.
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Abstract. Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework (one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle), to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.
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Martin, G. M., and R. C. Levine. "The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 3, no. 2 (August 3, 2012): 759–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-759-2012.
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Abstract. Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments in which a quadrupling of CO2 is applied as a step change. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework, one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle, to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.
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Burruss, Dylan, Luis L. Rodriguez, Barbara Drolet, Kerrie Geil, Angela M. Pelzel-McCluskey, Lee W. Cohnstaedt, Justin D. Derner, and Debra P. C. Peters. "Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions." Climate 9, no. 11 (October 29, 2021): 159. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9110159.
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Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.
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Cho, M. H., K. O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G. H. Lim. "The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over East Asia in present and possible future climate." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 5, no. 2 (October 17, 2014): 1319–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1319-2014.
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Abstract. This study investigates the impacts of land cover change, as simulated by a dynamic vegetation model, on the summertime climatology over Asia. The climate model used in this study has systematic biases of underestimated rainfall around Korea and overestimation over the South China Sea. When coupled to a dynamic vegetation model, the resulting change in land cover is accompanied by an additional direct radiative effect over dust-producing regions. The direct radiative effect of the additional dust contributes to increasing the rainfall biases, while the land surface physical processes are related to local temperature biases such as warm biases over North China. In time-slice runs for future climate, as the dust loading changes, anomalous anticyclonic flows are simulated over South China Sea, resulting in reduced rainfall over the South China Sea and more rainfall toward around Korea and South China. In contrast with the rainfall changes, the influence of land cover change and the associated dust radiative effects are very small for future projection of temperature, which is dominated by atmospheric CO2 increase. The results in this study suggest that the land cover simulated by a dynamic vegetation model can affect, and be affected by, model systematic biases on regional scales over dust emission source regions such as Asia. In particular, analysis of the radiative effects of dust changes associated with land cover change is important in order to understand future changes of regional precipitation in global warming.
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Masson, David, and Reto Knutti. "Predictor Screening, Calibration, and Observational Constraints in Climate Model Ensembles: An Illustration Using Climate Sensitivity." Journal of Climate 26, no. 3 (February 1, 2013): 887–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00540.1.
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Abstract Climate projections have been remarkably difficult to constrain by comparing the simulated climatological state from different models with observations, in particular for small ensembles with structurally different models. In this study, the relationship between climate sensitivity and different measures of the present-day climatology is investigated. First, it is shown that 1) a variable proposed earlier that is based on interannual variation of seasonal temperature and 2) the seasonal cycle amplitude are unable to constrain the range of climate sensitivity beyond what was initially covered by the ensemble. Second, it is illustrated how model calibration helps to reveal potentially useful relationships but might also complicate the interpretation of multimodel results. As a consequence, when ensembles are small, when models are neither independently developed nor structurally identical, when observations are likely to have been used in the model development and evaluation process, and when the interpretation of the relationships across models in terms of well-understood physical processes is not obvious, care should be taken when using relationships across models to constrain model projections. This study demonstrates the pitfalls that might occur if emergent statistical relationships are prematurely interpreted as an effective constraint on projected global or regional climate change.
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Hall, C. M., G. Hansen, F. Sigernes, and K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz. "Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, no. 1 (January 4, 2011): 39–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-39-2011.
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Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.
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Hall, C. M., G. Hansen, F. Sigernes, and K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz. "Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11, no. 11 (June 15, 2011): 5485–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-5485-2011.
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Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.
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Braithwaite, Roger J. "After six decades of monitoring glacier mass balance we still need data but it should be richer data." Annals of Glaciology 50, no. 50 (2009): 191–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769573.
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AbstractThis paper reviews data on glacier mass balance together with extra metadata on topography and climate to put the data into context. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of global average glacier mass balance may not be much different from simple averages. A more mathematically correct approach is to analyse long and continuous mass-balance series measured in different regions, but there are few long series and they do not cover the globe in any representative way. However, 30 year series from 30 glaciers confirm a recent (1996–2005) trend to very negative mass balance after two decades of nearly zero mass balance. Climate data from a global gridded climatology are applied to datasets for global glacier cover, for 318 glaciers with mass-balance data for at least 1 year and for 30 glaciers with 30 year series of measurements. Results show that mean precipitation is relatively low in the global glacier-cover dataset and much higher for the observed glaciers. This shows that current mass-balance measurements are biased towards wetter conditions than are typical for global glacier cover. We urgently need to find better ways of analysing sparse datasets with ‘complex spatial and temporal patterns’ like the present mass-balance dataset.
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Rammig, A., T. Jonas, N. E. Zimmermann, and C. Rixen. "Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions." Biogeosciences Discussions 6, no. 6 (November 18, 2009): 10817–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-6-10817-2009.
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Abstract. Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt-out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt-out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt-out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.
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Rammig, A., T. Jonas, N. E. Zimmermann, and C. Rixen. "Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions." Biogeosciences 7, no. 6 (June 24, 2010): 2013–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2013-2010.
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Abstract. Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.
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Cho, M. H., K. O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G. H. Lim. "The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over east Asia in present and possible future climate." Earth System Dynamics 6, no. 1 (April 7, 2015): 147–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015.
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Abstract. This study investigates the impacts of land cover change, as simulated by a dynamic vegetation model, on the summertime climatology over Asia. The climate model used in this study has systematic biases of underestimated rainfall around Korea and overestimation over the South China Sea. When coupled to a dynamic vegetation model, the resulting change in land cover is accompanied by an additional direct radiative effect over dust-producing regions. Both the change in land surface conditions directly and the effect of increased bare-soil fraction on dust loading affect the climate in the region and are examined separately in this study. The direct radiative effect of the additional dust contributes to increasing the rainfall biases, while the land surface physical processes are related to local temperature biases such as warm biases over North China. In time slice runs for future climate, as the dust loading changes, anomalous anticyclonic flows are simulated over South China Sea, resulting in reduced rainfall over the South China Sea and more rainfall near Korea and south China. In contrast with the rainfall changes, the influence of land cover change and the associated dust radiative effects are very small for a future projection of temperature, which is dominated by atmospheric CO2 increase. The results in this study suggest that the land cover simulated by a dynamic vegetation model can affect, and be affected by, model systematic biases on regional scales over dust emission source regions such as Asia. In particular, the analysis of the radiative effects of dust changes associated with land cover change is important in order to understand future changes in regional precipitation in global warming.
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Muerth, M. J., B. Gauvin St-Denis, S. Ricard, J. A. Velázquez, J. Schmid, M. Minville, D. Caya, D. Chaumont, R. Ludwig, and R. Turcotte. "On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 9 (September 7, 2012): 10205–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-10205-2012.
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Abstract. In climate change impact research, the assessment of future river runoff as well as the catchment scale water balance is impeded by different sources of modeling uncertainty. Some research has already been done in order to quantify the uncertainty of climate projections originating from the climate models and the downscaling techniques as well as from the internal variability evaluated from climate model member ensembles. Yet, the use of hydrological models adds another layer of incertitude. Within the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavaria International Collaboration on Climate Change) the relative contributions to the overall uncertainty from the whole model chain (from global climate models to water management models) are investigated using an ensemble of multiple climate and hydrological models. Although there are many options to downscale global climate projections to the regional scale, recent impact studies tend to use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). One reason for that is that the physical coherence between atmospheric and land-surface variables is preserved. The coherence between temperature and precipitation is of particular interest in hydrology. However, the regional climate model outputs often are biased compared to the observed climatology of a given region. Therefore, biases in those outputs are often corrected to reproduce historic runoff conditions from hydrological models using them, even if those corrections alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation. So, as bias correction may affect the consistency between RCM output variables, the use of correction techniques and even the use of (biased) climate model data itself is sometimes disputed among scientists. For those reasons, the effect of bias correction on simulated runoff regimes and the relative change in selected runoff indicators is explored. If it affects the conclusion of climate change analysis in hydrology, we should consider it as a source of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use as it does not alter the change signal of river runoff. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the past regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future period is weak for most indicators with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations.
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Anderson, Mark R. "Determination of a melt-onset date for Arctic sea-ice regions using passive-microwave data." Annals of Glaciology 25 (1997): 382–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0260305500014324.
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Although the formation and melt of sea ice are primarily functions of the annual radiation cycle, atmospheric sensible-heat forcing does serve to delay or advance the timing of such events. Additionally, if atmospheric conditions in the Arctic were to vary due to climate change it may have significant influence on ice conditions. Therefore, this paper investigates a methodology to determine melt-onset dale distribution, both spatially and temporally, in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding sea-ice covered regions.Melt determination is made by a threshold technique using the spectral signatures of the horizontal brightness temperatures (19 GHz horizontal channel minus the 37 GHz horizontal channel) obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) passive-microwave sensor. Passive-microwave observations are used to identify melt because of the large increase in emissivity that occurs when liquid water is present. Emissivity variations are observed in the brightness temperatures due to the different scattering, absorption and penetration depths of the snowpack from the available satellite channels during melt. Monitoring the variations in the brightness temperatures allows the determination of melt-onset dates.Analysis of daily brightness temperature data allows spatial variations in the date of the snow inch onset for sea ice to be detected. Since the data are gridded on a daily basis, a climatology of daily melt-onset dates can be produced for the Arctic region. From this climatology, progression of melt can be obtained and compared inter-annually.
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Broxton, Patrick D., Xubin Zeng, Damien Sulla-Menashe, and Peter A. Troch. "A Global Land Cover Climatology Using MODIS Data." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53, no. 6 (June 2014): 1593–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-13-0270.1.
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AbstractGlobal land cover data are widely used in weather, climate, and hydrometeorological models. The Collection 5.1 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) product is found to have a substantial amount of interannual variability, with 40% of land pixels showing land cover change one or more times during 2001–10. This affects the global distribution of vegetation if any one year or many years of data are used, for example, to parameterize land processes in regional and global models. In this paper, a value-added global 0.5-km land cover climatology (a single representative map for 2001–10) is developed by weighting each land cover type by its corresponding confidence score for each year and using the highest-weighted land cover type in each pixel in the 2001–10 MODIS data. The climatology is validated by comparing it with the System for Terrestrial Ecosystem Parameterization database as well as additional pixels that are identified from the Google Earth proprietary software database. When compared with the data of any individual year, this climatology does not substantially alter the overall global frequencies of most land cover classes but does affect the global distribution of many land cover classes. In addition, it is validated as well as or better than the MODIS data for individual years. Also, it is based on higher-quality data and is validated better than the Global Land Cover Characteristics database, which is based on 1 year of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data and represents a widely used first-generation global product.
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Pfeiffer, Mirjam, Dushyant Kumar, Carola Martens, and Simon Scheiter. "Climate change will cause non-analog vegetation states in Africa and commit vegetation to long-term change." Biogeosciences 17, no. 22 (November 27, 2020): 5829–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5829-2020.
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Abstract. Vegetation responses to changes in environmental drivers can be subject to temporal lags. This implies that vegetation is committed to future changes once environmental drivers stabilize; e.g., changes in physiological processes, structural changes, and changes in vegetation composition and disturbance regimes may happen with substantial delay after a change in forcing has occurred. Understanding the trajectories of such committed changes is important as they affect future carbon storage, vegetation structure, and community composition and therefore need consideration in conservation management. In this study, we investigate whether transient vegetation states can be represented by a time-shifted trajectory of equilibrium vegetation states or whether they are vegetation states without analog in conceivable equilibrium states. We use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM (adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model), to assess deviations between simulated transient and equilibrium vegetation states in Africa between 1970 and 2099 for the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using regionally downscaled climatology based on the MPI-ESM output for CMIP5. We determined lag times and dissimilarity between simulated equilibrium and transient vegetation states based on the combined difference of nine selected state variables using Euclidean distance as a measure for that difference. We found that transient vegetation states over time increasingly deviated from equilibrium states in both RCP scenarios but that the deviation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 during the second half of the 21st century. Trajectories of transient vegetation change did not follow a “virtual trajectory” of equilibrium states but represented non-analog composite states resulting from multiple lags with respect to vegetation processes and composition. Lag times between transient and most similar equilibrium vegetation states increased over time and were most pronounced in savanna and woodland areas, where disequilibrium in savanna tree cover frequently acted as the main driver of dissimilarities. Fire additionally enhanced lag times and dissimilarity between transient and equilibrium vegetation states due to its restraining effect on vegetation succession. Long lag times can be indicative of high rates of change in environmental drivers, of meta-stability and non-analog vegetation states, and of augmented risk for future tipping points. For long-term planning, conservation managers should therefore strongly focus on areas where such long lag times and high residual dissimilarity between most similar transient and equilibrium vegetation states have been simulated. Particularly in such areas, conservation efforts need to consider that observed vegetation may continue to change substantially after stabilization of external environmental drivers.
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Clark, Nigel, and Yasmin Gunaratnam. "Earthing the Anthropos? From ‘socializing the Anthropocene’ to geologizing the social." European Journal of Social Theory 20, no. 1 (August 20, 2016): 146–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1368431016661337.
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Responding to claims of Anthropocene geoscience that humans are now geological agents, social scientists are calling for renewed attention to the social, cultural, political and historical differentiation of the Anthropos. But does this leave critical social thought’s own key concepts and categories unperturbed by the Anthropocene provocation to think through dynamic earth processes? Can we ‘socialize the Anthropocene’ without also opening ‘the social’ to climate, geology and earth system change? Revisiting the earth science behind the Anthropocene thesis and drawing on social research that is using climatology and earth systems thinking to help understand socio-historical change, this article explores some of the possibilities for ‘geologizing’ social thought. While critical social thought’s attention to justice and exclusion remains vital, it suggests that responding to Anthropocene conditions also calls for a kind of ‘geo-social’ thinking that relates human diversity and social difference to the potentiality and multiplicity of the earth itself.
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Xu, Anlun, and Jian Li. "An Overview of the Integrated Meteorological Observations in Complex Terrain Region at Dali National Climate Observatory, China." Atmosphere 11, no. 3 (March 12, 2020): 279. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030279.
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Systematically observing components of the climate system as well as their processes and interactions are crucial to understand the weather, climate, climate change, etc. In order to launch long-term, continuous, stereoscopic, and integrated meteorological observations for key regions of the climate system in southwestern China where it is sensitive to interactions among multiple layers and exchanges of mass and energy, the Dali National Climate Observatory (DNCO) was established in May 2006. To date, the DNCO has gradually performed an integrated meteorological observation network in a complex terrain region over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau including the conventional observations of weather and climate, and the special observations of radiation, lightning, soil moisture, wind profile, water vapor, water quality, water level, water temperature profile, turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, latent heat, carbon dioxide, and methane, etc. Furthermore, the DNCO mainly focuses on the field observation experiments and scientific research activities for mountain meteorology. This paper presents an overview of the DNCO including its location, climatology, scientific objectives, research tasks, and existing observation projects. The progresses in observation and associated research including data quality controls and assessments, recent observation results, and regional numerical model tests are summarized. Future works are also discussed.
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Tully, Craig D., Jason A. Rech, T. Race Workman, Calogero M. Santoro, José M. Capriles, Eugenia M. Gayo, and Claudio Latorre. "In-stream wetland deposits, megadroughts, and cultural change in the northern Atacama Desert, Chile." Quaternary Research 91, no. 1 (January 2019): 63–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/qua.2018.122.
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AbstractA key concern regarding current and future climate change is the possibility of sustained droughts that can have profound impacts on societies. As such, multiple paleoclimatic proxies are needed to identify megadroughts, the synoptic climatology responsible for these droughts, and their impacts on past and future societies. In the hyperarid Atacama Desert of northern Chile, many streams are characterized by perennial flow and support dense in-stream wetlands. These streams possess sequences of wetland deposits as fluvial terraces that record past changes in the water table. We mapped and radiocarbon dated a well-preserved sequence of in-stream wetland deposits along a 4.3-km reach of the Río San Salvador in the Calama basin to determine the relationship between regional climate change and the incision of in-stream wetlands. The Río San Salvador supported dense wetlands from 11.1 to 9.8, 6.4 to 3.5, 2.8 to 1.3, and 1.0 to 0.5 ka and incised at the end of each of these intervals. Comparison with other in-stream wetland sequences in the Atacama Desert, and with regional paleoclimatic archives, indicates that in-stream wetlands responded similarly to climatic changes by incising during periods of extended drought at ~9.8, 3.5, 1.3, and 0.5 ka.
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Wang, Wei-Lei, Guisheng Song, François Primeau, Eric S. Saltzman, Thomas G. Bell, and J. Keith Moore. "Global ocean dimethyl sulfide climatology estimated from observations and an artificial neural network." Biogeosciences 17, no. 21 (November 6, 2020): 5335–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5335-2020.
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Abstract. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is important to climate due to the ability of DMS to alter Earth's radiation budget. Knowledge of the global-scale distribution, seasonal variability, and sea-to-air flux of DMS is needed in order to improve understanding of atmospheric sulfur, aerosol/cloud dynamics, and albedo. Here we examine the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) to extrapolate available DMS measurements to the global ocean and produce a global climatology with monthly temporal resolution. A global database of 82 996 ship-based DMS measurements in surface waters was used along with a suite of environmental parameters consisting of latitude–longitude coordinates, time of day, time of year, solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Linear regressions of DMS against the environmental parameters show that on a global-scale mixed layer depth and solar radiation are the strongest predictors of DMS. These parameters capture ∼9 % and ∼7 % of the raw DMS data variance, respectively. Multilinear regression can capture more of the raw data variance (∼39 %) but strongly underestimates DMS in high-concentration regions. In contrast, the artificial neural network captures ∼66 % of the raw data variance in our database. Like prior climatologies our results show a strong seasonal cycle in surface ocean DMS with the highest concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes in the high-latitude summertime oceans. We estimate a lower global sea-to-air DMS flux (20.12±0.43 Tg S yr−1) than the prior estimate based on a map interpolation method when the same gas transfer velocity parameterization is used. Our sensitivity test results show that DMS concentration does not change unidirectionally with each of the environmental parameters, which emphasizes the interactions among these parameters. The ANN model suggests that the flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere will increase with global warming. Given that larger DMS fluxes induce greater cloud albedo, this corresponds to a negative climate feedback.
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Oleson, K. W., G. B. Bonan, J. Feddema, M. Vertenstein, and C. S. B. Grimmond. "An Urban Parameterization for a Global Climate Model. Part I: Formulation and Evaluation for Two Cities." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47, no. 4 (April 1, 2008): 1038–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jamc1597.1.
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Abstract Urbanization, the expansion of built-up areas, is an important yet less-studied aspect of land use/land cover change in climate science. To date, most global climate models used to evaluate effects of land use/land cover change on climate do not include an urban parameterization. Here, the authors describe the formulation and evaluation of a parameterization of urban areas that is incorporated into the Community Land Model, the land surface component of the Community Climate System Model. The model is designed to be simple enough to be compatible with structural and computational constraints of a land surface model coupled to a global climate model yet complex enough to explore physically based processes known to be important in determining urban climatology. The city representation is based upon the “urban canyon” concept, which consists of roofs, sunlit and shaded walls, and canyon floor. The canyon floor is divided into pervious (e.g., residential lawns, parks) and impervious (e.g., roads, parking lots, sidewalks) fractions. Trapping of longwave radiation by canyon surfaces and solar radiation absorption and reflection is determined by accounting for multiple reflections. Separate energy balances and surface temperatures are determined for each canyon facet. A one-dimensional heat conduction equation is solved numerically for a 10-layer column to determine conduction fluxes into and out of canyon surfaces. Model performance is evaluated against measured fluxes and temperatures from two urban sites. Results indicate the model does a reasonable job of simulating the energy balance of cities.
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Peng, Xiaoqing, Tingjun Zhang, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Kang Wang, Dongliang Luo, Bin Cao, Hang Su, Huijun Jin, and Qingbai Wu. "Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere." Journal of Climate 31, no. 1 (December 11, 2017): 251–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0721.1.
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Abstract Variability of active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions is critical for assessments of climate change, water resources, and engineering applications. Detailed knowledge of ALT variations is also important for studies on ecosystem, hydrological, and geomorphological processes in cold regions. The primary objective of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive 1971–2000 climatology of ALT and its changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 1850 through 2100. To accomplish this, in situ observations, the Stefan solution based on a thawing index, and the edaphic factor (E factor) are employed to calculate ALT. The thawing index is derived from (i) the multimodel ensemble mean of 16 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over 1850–2005, (ii) three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2006–2100, and (iii) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded observations for 1901–2014. The results show significant spatial variability in in situ ALT that generally ranges from 40 to 320 cm, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the Alps. The differences in the ALT climatology between the three RCPs and the historical experiments ranged from 0 to 200 cm. The biggest increases, of 120–200 cm, are on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, while the smallest increases of less than 20 cm are in Alaska. Averaged over all permafrost regions, mean ALT from CMIP5 increased significantly at 0.57 ± 0.04 cm decade−1 during 1850–2005, while 2006–2100 projections show ALT increases of 0.77 ± 0.08 cm decade−1 for RCP2.6, 2.56 ± 0.07 cm decade−1 for RCP4.5, and 6.51 ± 0.07 cm decade−1 for RCP8.5.
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Robinson, A., R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski. "An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland ice sheet response to climate change." Cryosphere Discussions 3, no. 3 (September 11, 2009): 729–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-3-729-2009.
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Abstract. In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. These fields are used to force a high resolution ice sheet model through the annual mean surface temperature and mass balance. The melt component of the mass balance is computed here using both a conventional positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative. As a validation of the model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography of Greenland and compared them with empirical data. For the present-day climate, simulated surface boundary conditions for the GIS do not differ significantly from those of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. However, for a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology and surface mass balance between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the conventional approach become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a high resolution, three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow sufficiently realistic simulations of the present-day GIS. However, when starting from ice-free conditions, two different equilibrium states are achieved, depending on the choice of melt scheme.
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Kidd, Chris, Vincenzo Levizzani, and Peter Bauer. "A review of satellite meteorology and climatology at the start of the twenty-first century." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 33, no. 4 (August 2009): 474–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133309346647.
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The observation of the atmosphere by satellite instrumentation was one of the first uses of remotely sensed data nearly 50 years ago. Since then a range of satellites have carried many different meteorological sensors capable of monitoring the dynamics of the atmosphere and the capture and retrieval of information about atmospheric parameters for use in meteorological and climatological applications. The utilization of satellite observations for meteorology and climatology is essential since the atmosphere is a global feature, and conventional observations of it are primarily land-based. Satellites, with their synoptic view, provide much information benefiting numerical weather prediction models to improve weather forecasting and the ability to monitor weather systems, in particular those that pose a threat to humankind, over the entire Earth. Development of new observational capabilities has led to new insights into atmospheric processes and their interaction, allowing the consequences of anthropogenic activities, such as climate change, to be monitored.
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Martin, G. M., M. A. Ringer, V. D. Pope, A. Jones, C. Dearden, and T. J. Hinton. "The Physical Properties of the Atmosphere in the New Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part I: Model Description and Global Climatology." Journal of Climate 19, no. 7 (April 1, 2006): 1274–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3636.1.
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Abstract The atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is described and an assessment of its mean climatology presented. HadGEM1 includes substantially improved representations of physical processes, increased functionality, and higher resolution than its predecessor, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). Major developments are the use of semi-Lagrangian instead of Eulerian advection for both dynamical and tracer fields; new boundary layer, gravity wave drag, microphysics, and sea ice schemes; and major changes to the convection, land surface (including tiled surface characteristics), and cloud schemes. There is better coupling between the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice subcomponents and the model includes an interactive aerosol scheme, representing both the first and second indirect effects. Particular focus has been placed on improving the processes (such as clouds and aerosol) that are most uncertain in projections of climate change. These developments lead to a significantly more realistic simulation of the processes represented, the most notable improvements being in the hydrological cycle, cloud radiative properties, the boundary layer, the tropopause structure, and the representation of tracers.
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Halloran, P. R., T. G. Bell, and I. J. Totterdell. "Can we trust simple marine DMS parameterisations within complex climate models?" Biogeosciences Discussions 7, no. 1 (February 19, 2010): 1295–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-7-1295-2010.
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Abstract. Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted interannual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed interannual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high interannual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.
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Halloran, P. R., T. G. Bell, and I. J. Totterdell. "Can we trust empirical marine DMS parameterisations within projections of future climate?" Biogeosciences 7, no. 5 (May 20, 2010): 1645–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1645-2010.
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Abstract. Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.
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Rajagopal, Seshadri, Francina Dominguez, Hoshin V. Gupta, Peter A. Troch, and Christopher L. Castro. "Physical Mechanisms Related to Climate-Induced Drying of Two Semiarid Watersheds in the Southwestern United States." Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 4 (July 30, 2014): 1404–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-13-0106.1.
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Abstract Water managers across the United States face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on water resources. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the twenty-first century is estimated. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections, from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) of the World Climate Research Programme, were used to drive a spatially distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of hydrologic processes in the Salt–Verde basin in the southwestern United States. From the suite of CMIP3 models, the authors select a five-model subset, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for the study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions, so as to represent the range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The projections of this model ensemble indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century. The primary cause for this change is due to projected decreases in winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow and increased winter evaporation. The results show that water management in central Arizona is highly likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.