Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climatic changes – Political aspects – China'

National Geographic is a magazine that inspires people to care about the planet through its articles of exploration, education, and conservation. Magazines are a significant source of knowledge and compete with a variety of other media, constantly rethinking where they can improve in comparison to other media. Research in this dissertation shows that some magazines offer high quality imagery for artwork, photos and advertisements, which remains critical for industries and readers. They often offer greater depth than radio, TV, or even newspapers, so that people interested in an analysis of news and events still depend on magazines for informative and general news. People often turn to media—such as television, newspapers, magazines, radio, and Internet—to help them make sense of the many complexities relating to environmental science and governance that (un)consciously shape our lives. Global warming, as a subject, demands both political and personal responses in all parts of the world, and effective decision making at both scales depends on timely, accurate information, according to Shanahan (2009:145). The quality and quantity of journalism about climate change will therefore be key in the coming years. National Geographic comprises a variety of themes, such as environment, science, wildlife, travel and photography. This study is an analysis of the writing and photography related to one theme - global warming. It provides a critical analysis of the coverage of the global warming discourse in one magazine, examined over an eleven-year period from 2000 to 2010. This theme is powerful in that it represents ethical responsibility and concern for nature and our world and the analysis attempts to define the objects of discourse within the coverage, thus, evaluating if the format of the coverage informs and educates the audience about global warming.

This thesis presents the results of research in a small village located in the mountains of Sichuan Province in southwestern China. The thesis argues that traditional irrigation practices vital to paddy-rice production in the village have been stressed by local weather events. It also argues that local villagers have not responded effectively to such changes, and that failure to adjust has contributed to social stress observed at the site. During the earlier years of the study period (1945 to 2012), improvements were made in local irrigation, which seem to have helped farmers continue with traditional subsistence wet-rice farming in a fragile mountain environment. However, in later years of the period village social order showed two significant signs of collapse: first, because of emigration, fewer people were left to farm higher mountain levels so farm land was being abandoned; second, social crowding in lower level riverside farming areas, partly the result of highland emigration, began reducing the amount of land being farmed there. While reducing intensive cropping of highland farming areas can result in spontaneous recovery of natural resources such as soil and water, crowding in lower areas can contribute to deterioration of natural resources in the lower village farmland. Crowding can, in addition, have a bearing on community health problems. The thesis results are of value to researchers concerned with the adaptive behavior of local farming communities trying to maintain their traditional irrigation-dependent way of life in a fragile mountain environment while experiencing the effects of changeable weather. Thesis results are of additional value to those who study the impact on society of earth-warming, especially if variable local weather in the Dabashan is shown to be related to global climate change.

Notre recherche a consisté à poser la politique internationale du climat comme une politique publique et à montrer quelles étaient les dynamiques et les acteurs étant intervenus dans sa construction. Nous nous sommes en particulier attelé à mettre en exergue l'univers de sens ( "référentiel") à partir duquel les dispositifs de cette politique ont été élaborés, ainsi que la manière dont la dynamique d'opposition des intérêts propre aux négociations internationales s'y articulait.
Doctorat en sciences politiques
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.
Bibliography
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The politics of climate change has thus far been marked by controversy and a lack of consensus in regards to the best manner in which to comprehend and mitigate this problem. This is further aggravated by the characterisation of climate change as a global problem requiring a global solution which has served to only further complicate inter-state relations. While a number of analysts have remarked that the North-South relationship is no longer a meaningful analytical tool in international relations, it will be the purpose of this study to explore this contention within the field of climate change negotiations and to identify both the transformation and continuity within the relationship between the North and South. The unsuccessful nature of climate negotiations are largely held to be the result of the rift between the North and South, where the issues relating to the global political economy are largely responsible for the lack of consensus being reached between developing and developed countries. All climate negotiations since the 1972 UN Conference on the Environment and Development have showcased the tension between the two regions in regards to climate change mitigation and their inability to overcome this fissure. More importantly, the ensuing Copenhagen Summit of 2009 further highlighted a rift amongst the developing countries of the South, and between the developed and developing countries. As a consequence, the main aim of the research will be to understand the character of the global interactions between the North and South in terms of the context of global environmental politics. It is also the purpose of this research to gain a more comprehensive account of the sequence of causation within this relationship which stalled the negotiating process and lastly, to understand the conceptual demarcations of the two terms in the post-Cold War era so as to better understand the nature of the relationship between the two regions. What may be surmised by the study is that there is still a continuity to be found in the international arena pertaining to the North-South relationship. However, the Copenhagen Summit has been instrumental in showcasing the growing stratification that is found within the South and as a result has highlighted the cross-alliances that have formed between the North and South in order to maintain economic growth. Overall, while the North-South relationship does impact the nature of climate mitigation negotiations, the stratification of states based upon economic and developmental divergences will result in states forming alliances based upon economic self-interest.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die politiek van klimaatsverandering is tot dusver gekenmerk aan kontroversie en ‟n gebrek aan konsensus met betrekking tot die mees effektiewe wyse waarop hierdie probleem verstaan en gemitigeer kan word. Die probleem word verder vererger deur die kenmerk van klimaatsverandering as ‟n globale probleem wat ‟n globale oplossing verg, wat tot die verdere komplikasie van interstaat-verhoudings gelei het. Verskeie analiste het opgemerk dat die verhouding tussen die Noorde en Suide nie meer dien as betekenisvolle analitiese gereedskap op die gebied van internasionale verhoudings nie. Die doel van hierdie ondersoek is gevolglik om hierdie aanname in oënskou te neem, en om beide transformasie en kontinuïteit binne die verhouding tussen die Noorde en Suide te identifiseer. Die onsuksesvolle aard van klimaatsonderhandelinge word grootliks toegeskryf aan die onenigheid tussen die Noorde en Suide, met kwessies rondom die globale politieke ekonomie grootliks verantwoordelik vir die gebrek aan konsensus tussen die streke. Sedert die 1972 VN Konferensie oor die Omgewing en Ontwikkeling het alle klimaatsonderhandelinge die spanning tussen die twee streke met betrekking to klimaatveranderingsversagtings en hul onvermoë om hierdie skeur te oorbrug, ten toon gestel. Die 2009 Kopenhagen-beraad het ‟n onenigheid ontbloot tussen die ontwikkelende lande in die Suide en tussen ontwikkelende en ontwikkelde lande. Gevolglik is die hoofdoelstelling van hierdie studie om die aard van globale interaksies tussen die Noorde en Suide te verstaan met betrekking tot die konteks van globale omgewingspolitiek. Die doel van die navorsing is ook om ‟n meer omvattende verklaring te verkry oor die volgorde van oorsaaklike verbande binne hierdie verhouding wat die onderhandelingsproses tot stilstand gebring het en laastens, om die konseptuele afbakening van hierdie twee terme in die post-Koue Oorlog era en die aard van die verhouding tussen die twee streke beter te verstaan. Hierdie studie wys dat daar steeds kontinuïteit in die internasionale arena is met betrekking tot die verhouding tussen die Noorde en Suide. Die 2009 Kopenhagen-beraad was egter instrumenteel om die groeiende stratifikasie wat binne die Suide gevind word uit te lig, en die kruisalliansies wat tussen die Noorde en Suide gevorm is om ekonomiese groei in stand te hou, te beklemtoon. Alhoewel die verhouding tussen die Noorde en Suide tog ‟n impak op die aard van klimaatsversagtingsonderhandelings uitoefen, sal die stratifikasie van state wat op ekonomiese- en ontwikkelingsafwykings gebaseer is tot gevolg hê dat state alliansies vorm op grond van ekonomiese selfbelange.

Les contestations normatives relatives à la nature des transferts financiers Nord-Sud visant l’adaptation au changement climatique et à ses relations avec l’aide publique au développement (APD) se sont considérablement accentuées depuis 2009 lorsque les pays développés se sont conjointement engagés à fournir des ressources «nouvelles et supplémentaires » à hauteur de 30 milliards de dollars pour la période 2010-2012 et à mobiliser collectivement 100 milliards de dollars par an d’ici à 2020, en les répartissant de manière « équilibrée » entre l’atténuation et l’adaptation dans les pays en développement. Mouvements de solidarité internationale, organisations non gouvernementales de protection de l’environnement, représentants des pays en développement, et parfois institutions multilatérales de développement :nombreux sont les acteurs qui appellent à la mise en place d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui existerait séparément de l’aide, en représentant une forme de « compensation » liée à la responsabilité disproportionnée des pays développés dans l’occurrence du changement climatique.

Notre thèse se construit à partir d’un constat :celui de la déconnexion entre une hypothèse largement répandue dans la littérature académique (i.e. l’existence d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui serait distinct de l’APD – et original sous divers aspects) et la réalité observable (i.e. l’existence d’un tel financement ne se vérifie pas dans les faits). Comment expliquer cette déconnexion ?Telle est précisément la question que nous tentons d’élucider dans le présent document. Nous formulons l’hypothèse selon laquelle les discours opposant le financement international de l’adaptation et l’aide au développement sont le produit d’une vision particulière de ce que devrait être l’APD. L’ambition de notre recherche est dès lors de caractériser cette vision normative de l’aide et d’examiner ses manifestations dans une série de débats récurrents qui traversent la question du financement international de l’adaptation. Nous mettons en évidence le fait que ces discours renouvellent une vision de l’aide entre États souverains destinée à répondre aux injustices internationales et à alimenter un transfert de ressources régulier entre pays riches et pays pauvres.
Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Water is recognised as a key driver for social and economic development in the Zambezi basin. The basin is riparian to eight southern African countries and the transboundary nature of the basin’s water resources can be viewed as an agent of cooperation between the basin countries. It is possible, however, that the same water resource can lead to conflicts between water users. The southern African Water Vision for ‘equitable and sustainable utilisation of water for social, environmental justice and economic benefits for the present and future generations’ calls for an integrated and efficient management of water resources within the basin. Ensuring water and food security in the Zambezi basin is, however, faced with challenges due to high variability in climate and the available water resources. Water resources are under continuous threat from pollution, increased population growth, development and urbanisation as well as global climate change. These factors increase the demand for freshwater resources and have resulted in water being one of the major driving forces for development. The basin is also vulnerable due to lack of adequate financial resources and appropriate water resources infrastructure to enable viable, equitable and sustainable distribution of the water resources. This is in addition to the fact that the basin’s economic mainstay and social well-being are largely dependent on rainfed agriculture. There is also competition among the different water users and this has the potential to generate conflicts, which further hinder the development of water resources in the basin. This thesis has focused on the Zambezi River basin emphasising climate variability and climate change. It is now considered common knowledge that the global climate is changing and that many of the impacts will be felt through water resources. If these predictions are correct then the Zambezi basin is most likely to suffer under such impacts since its economic mainstay is largely determined by the availability of rainfall. It is the belief of this study that in order to ascertain the impacts of climate change, there should be a basis against which this change is evaluated. If we do not know the historical patterns of variability it may be difficult to predict changes in the future climate and in the hydrological resources and it will certainly be difficult to develop appropriate management strategies. Reliable quantitative estimates of water availability are a prerequisite for successful water resource plans. However, such initiatives have been hindered by paucity in data especially in a basin where gauging networks are inadequate and some of them have deteriorated. This is further compounded by shortages in resources, both human and financial, to ensure adequate monitoring. To address the data problems, this study largely relied on global data sets and the CRU TS2.1 rainfall grids were used for a large part of this study. The study starts by assessing the historical variability of rainfall and streamflow in the Zambezi basin and the results are used to inform the prediction of change in the future. Various methods of assessing historical trends were employed and regional drought indices were generated and evaluated against the historical rainfall trends. The study clearly demonstrates that the basin has a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and streamflow at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The Standardised Precipitation Index, a rainfall based drought index, is used to assess historical drought events in the basin and it is shown that most of the droughts that have occurred were influenced by climatic and hydrological variability. It is concluded, through the evaluation of agricultural maize yields, that the basin’s food security is mostly constrained by the availability of rainfall. Comparing the viability of using a rainfall based index to a soil moisture based index as an agricultural drought indicator, this study concluded that a soil moisture based index is a better indicator since all of the water balance components are considered in the generation of the index. This index presents the actual amount of water available for the plant unlike purely rainfall based indices, that do not account for other components of the water budget that cause water losses. A number of challenges were, however, faced in assessing the variability and historical drought conditions, mainly due to the fact that most parts of the Zambezi basin are ungauged and available data are sparse, short and not continuous (with missing gaps). Hydrological modelling is frequently used to bridge the data gap and to facilitate the quantification of a basin’s hydrology for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The trend has been to use various methods of regionalisation to transfer information from gauged basins, or from basins with adequate physical basin data, to ungauged basins. All this is done to ensure that water resources are accounted for and that the future can be well planned. A number of approaches leading to the evaluation of the basin’s hydrological response to future climate change scenarios are taken. The Pitman rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed wide use as a water resources estimation tool in southern Africa. The model has been calibrated for the Zambezi basin but it should be acknowledged that any hydrological modelling process is characterised by many uncertainties arising from limitations in input data and inherent model structural uncertainty. The calibration process is thus carried out in a manner that embraces some of the uncertainties. Initial ranges of parameter values (maximum and minimum) that incorporate the possible parameter uncertainties are assigned in relation to physical basin properties. These parameter sets are used as input to the uncertainty version of the model to generate behavioural parameter space which is then further modified through manual calibration. The use of parameter ranges initially guided by the basin physical properties generates streamflows that adequately represent the historically observed amounts. This study concludes that the uncertainty framework and the Pitman model perform quite well in the Zambezi basin. Based on assumptions of an intensifying hydrological cycle, climate changes are frequently expected to result in negative impacts on water resources. However, it is important that basin scale assessments are undertaken so that appropriate future management strategies can be developed. To assess the likely changes in the Zambezi basin, the calibrated Pitman model was forced with downscaled and bias corrected GCM data. Three GCMs were used for this study, namely; ECHAM, GFDL and IPSL. The general observation made in this study is that the near future (2046-2065) conditions of the Zambezi basin are expected to remain within the ranges of historically observed variability. The differences between the predictions for the three GCMs are an indication of the uncertainties in the future and it has not been possible to make any firm conclusions about directions of change. It is therefore recommended that future water resources management strategies account for historical patterns of variability, but also for increased uncertainty. Any management strategies that are able to satisfactorily deal with the large variability that is evident from the historical data should be robust enough to account for the near future patterns of water availability predicted by this study. However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggest that improved monitoring systems are required to provide additional data against which future model outputs can be assessed.

近幾十年來，全球氣候變化──特別是城市氣候變化──影響城市環境及居民生活質素的程度已引起公眾廣泛的討論。然而，過去研究一般採用之低空間解析度並不足夠為城市規劃及設計提供完善的資訊，引致對於氣候變化缺乏充分的考慮。高密度的城市環境（如香港）需要高時間解析度的氣候數據以制定有效的適應和減緩策略來應對未來氣候的變化。
本研究採用線性迴歸技術，以預測未來香港市區和郊區的氣溫。本研究利用氣象站和統計延伸得出之基線氣溫數據來建立統計降尺度模型，以預測未來香港市區和郊區之平均氣溫、最高氣溫和最低氣溫。
根據結果顯示，統計降尺度模型能夠有效建立大氣氣象參數和本港氣溫兩者之間的關係，尤其春季、秋季和冬季之氣溫預測表現理想。另外，冬季氣溫的上升趨勢則出現較大的升幅。研究結果亦顯示夜間氣溫的上升趨勢一般比日間為高。在未來的日子，郊區的溫度上升亦將會比市區為高。隨著城市化的影響納入預測溫度因素之中，預計郊區的氣溫將超過城市核心（天文台總部之氣象站），而郊區暖化的速度亦比市區和近郊為高。
本研究發現統計降尺度方法能有助利用全球氣候模型（GCM）提供之數據，以預測未來氣候之變化。城市規劃與設計過程是需要大量的數據進行評估氣候變化對城市環境的影響之研究，儘管統計降尺度方法有一定程度的局限性，它仍然是一個低成本而有效的方法。根據未來預測之氣溫，本研究具體指出未來之氣候變化對於城市規劃和設計過程的影響，亦提出了一系列於不同規劃層面適用之適應和減緩措施的建議。
The effects of global climate change on urban environment have been widely discussed in recent decades. In particular, changes in urban climate have received much attention as they affect the living quality of urban dwellers. However, the coarse spatial scales employed in recent climate change studies were found to be insufficient in the context of urban planning and design. It leads to the lack of information on the changing urban climate and insufficient consideration of climate change in urban planning and design processes. In high-density cities like Hong Kong, the complex urban environment requires climatic data at very fine temporal resolution in order to formulate effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climate change.
The present study employed regression techniques to establish empirical relationship between large-scale predictor variables and local predictands in order to obtain future air temperature of urban and rural areas of Hong Kong. 40-year baseline conditions of local air temperature were obtained from both the observational and statistically extended temperature record. Monthly means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum air temperatures for both daytime and night-time were calculated for establishing statistical downscaling (SD) models to project future air temperature of urban and rural areas of Hong Kong.
The results suggest that regression-based downscaling techniques are able to capture the relationship between large-scale atmospheric conditions and station-scale meteorological parameters. The SD models performed particularly well in winter and considerably satisfactory results were obtained in spring and autumn. Night-time temperature trends generally exhibited greater increases than daytime trends. Seasonal variations were present with greatest increases observed in winter. Rural areas would likely experience greater warming than the urban areas in the future. With urbanization effect incorporated into the projected temperature series, it was found that air temperature projected for suburban stations would exceed that for the urban core. Rural warming also exhibited a higher rate than those observed in suburban and urban stations.
The present study shows that statistical downscaling approach provides a method to obtain information about future climatic conditions at local scale by using GCM outputs which are widely accepted to be useful tools to assist climate change studies. Despite of the limitations that historical climate would persist in projected climatic series, it allows a low-cost but effective measure for climate impact assessments, particularly in the context of urban planning and design, which requires extensive data for a wide range of studies. Based on the projected air temperature, implications of future climate change on urban planning and design of potential development were discussed and recommendations on potential adaptation and mitigation measures at different planning levels were also presented.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Lau, Ka Lun.
Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 159-173).
Abstracts also in Chinese.

This thesis consists of three essays that analyse environmental and fiscal policy interactions. In particular, these essays explore three trade-offs in policy making using small theoretical models as well as a large computable general equilibrium model. The first essay (Chapter 2) considers the trade-off between economic growth and environmental control by studying an optimal fiscal plan of taxation and composition of government spending in an endogenous growth model. The trade-off is shaped in such a way that a government has to allocate its tax revenue between emission reduction spending and growth-inducing infrastructure spending. The composition of government spending has important policy implications. Without the availability of such composition the economy could end up with a lower economic growth and a higher emission growth. The relative size of the efficiency between the infrastructure spending and emission reduction spending determines the tax rate and the composition of government spending. The second essay (Chapter 3) studies an overlapping-generations model in which private decisions exert externalities on an environmental public good. The age-dependent tax rates and public expenditure are determined by agents with income-heterogeneity. Therefore, the conflict of interest between agents imposes policy restrictions that distort the allocation of resources and reduce welfare. In particular, it is shown that the environmental public good may be inefficiently over or under allocated relative to the Ramsey benchmark model. The presence of the private externality further distorts the allocation of private externality and public components in the environmental public good as a consequence of politico-economic equilibria. Moreover, the different Markovian equilibrium regimes in this model provide a possible interpretation of existing disagreements in empirically estimated relationships between average income and environment. The third essay (Chapter 4) addresses the climate policy issues for China. In particular, it considers the policy trade-offs of setting an intermediate target for emissions intensity, as China's Twelfth "Five-Year Plan" does, in the course of achieving its emissions intensity target under the 2020 Copenhagen Commitment. Under a fixed rule that the carbon tax rate increases by the real interest rate each year, there is likely to be a jump in the tax rate in the transition from 2015 towards 2016 if both targets are to be achieved. This jump indicates that more mitigation efforts are needed in the later period, from 2016 to 2020. The jump is qualitatively robust relative to future economic uncertainties and may be even higher if cumulative emissions are controlled. While potentially lowering the costs in cumulative real GDP terms during 2013-2020, the intermediate target creates policy uncertainties beyond 2015. In addition, an intermediate target may give more flexibility to policy makers under intensity targeting. However, this would impose a constraint on the emissions mitigation path under the cap-and-trade system, which causes inefficiency of mitigation. But in accordance with the theoretical studies, intensity targeting is likely to incur more costs compared with level targeting when there are negative future shocks to the economy. This is because the negative shocks on economic output will be translated into more pressure on emissions mitigation as emissions intensity is determined by both emissions and economic output.

Between a Promise and a Trench examines how science is constituted as a strategic practice and site through which citizens make claims about racial democracy in Guyana. It shows how government policymaking around climate adaptation--which drew upon the recommendations of outside actors, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations (UN), and various NGOs and international scientific networks-- profoundly disrupted the country's delicate racial-ethnic balance. A contribution to the burgeoning anthropology on the social and political impact of climate change, the dissertation also speaks to current debates over race and citizenship, the complex relationship between expertise and democracy, and the competing post-colonial claims of Indo-, Afro-, and Amerindian Guyanese to land and self-determination. The dissertation is based on seventeen months of fieldwork and archival research conducted between, 2009-11 in coastal Guyana. It brings together three conflicting perspectives: of engineers, who drew upon datasets and models about flooding and construction of canals around IPCC and UN climate data; the state officials, who sought to reduce vulnerability to flood hazards through land evictions; and of Indo-, Afro-, and Amerindian Guyanese farmers and squatters who were evicted as a result of post-2005 engineering projects. I use the concept "politics of vulnerability" to describe how states assume that citizens experience vulnerability to climate change based on their "ethnic-political status," thereby making the extension of democratic rights contingent on citizens providing cultural knowledge to the state to manage climate change. The dissertation attends to the consequences of the canals, including collapsed housing, failed civic science programs, and erratic water allocation. In response to these failures, citizens charge that state engineering repositions environmental hazards around existing social welfare inequities between racial-ethnic communities. During my time in Guyana, I tracked these responses at four distinct sites. 1) I observed engineers at work in the field produce and interpret "datasets" and "models" about flooding and construction of canals around IPCC and UN climate data. 2) I gathered residents' "unofficial" stories about vulnerability to floods through interviews and participant observations of everyday life in two coastal villages, Sophia (a racially mixed urban squatter community) and Mahaica (a predominately Indo-Guyanese cash crop community), where people were evicted due to the post-2005 engineering projects. 3) I analyzed "official" data generated through civic science projects and fieldwork in Mahaica and Sophia by engineers, state officials, and scientists that addressed vulnerability to flood hazards and its relationship to land evictions and property rights. 4) I conducted archival research in Guyana's National Archives on documents relating to colonial-era canals (1920s-60s) that inform the current projects. Although there is a growing ethnographic literature on climate change, a critical anthropology of vulnerability has yet to emerge. This dissertation offers two key interventions in this emerging field. First, I argue that in applied contexts, the validity of climate science is structured by the ways in which governments hinge climate adaptation projects to address varying national racial-ethnic populations. Second, I argue that governments cultivate institutions of social welfare that encourage "racial-ethnic" niche markets to manage vulnerability to climate change to soothe citizens' fears of state failure and environmental insecurity in the everyday. In such contexts, experiences of vulnerability become privatized, informing a consumer-oriented practice of racial democracy.

Monthly water balance models are important tools for hydrological impact assessment of climate change. Traditionally monthly models adopt a conceptual, lumped-parameter approach. Based on an extensive survey and review of existing monthly water balance models, six models with different conceptualization and structure, i.e., Thomthwaite-Mather, Belgium, Xinanjiang, Guo, WatBal and Schaake, were compared through calibration and validation using observed data of hydrology and climate of 1960-1988 in the Dongjiang basin. The model comparison offered insights for the development of a monthly distributed model which integrates the spatial variations of basin terrain and rainfall into runoff simulation. An innovative feature of the new model is that the spatial distribution of soil moisture capacity which is described as a parabolic curve in Xinanjiang model is represented by a cumulative frequency curve of index of relative difficulty of runoff generation based on the concept of topographic index in TOPMODEL. The calibration and validation results show that the developed model with only three parameters is suitable for monthly runoff simulation in the Dongjiang basin.
The developed model was applied to evaluate the changes in water availability in the Dongjiang basin under hypothetical climate change scenarios and those derived from projections of three General Circulation Models (GCM), i.e., CGCM1, CSIRO and ECHAM4. Sensitivity analyses based on hypothetical scenarios suggest that climatic change has greater effects on runoff than on soil moisture and greater effects on water availability in dry months than in wet months. The effects of precipitation changes on the amount of runoff and soil moisture can be characterized by a magnification factor whereas temperature increases alone produce negligible effects. Hydrological simulation with inputs of three GCM-generated scenarios indicates that annual and rain-season runoff will increase by 0.3°io to 13.9% and 7.6% to 12.0%, respectively, by the 2050s. Dry-season runoff will change between -23.2% and +26.4%. Average annual and dry-season soil moisture will decrease by 1.3% to 6.9% and 1.0% to 8.1%, respectively. Soil moisture will demonstrate little change in rain-season. Increase in annual runoff and reduction in annual soil moisture will be apparent over the whole basin, but there is relatively little consistency among the three GCM-generated scenarios as to the magnitudes of spatial change in runoff and soil moisture. Although these results are not definitive statements as to what will happen to runoff and soil moisture in the Dongjiang basin, they rather have significant implications for the study of response strategies of water supply and flood control to climate change.
Jiang Tao.
"July 2005."
Advisers: Chen Yongqin; Lam Kin-che.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 67-01, Section: B, page: 0149.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 174-190).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest Information and Learning Company, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
School code: 1307.

Maintaining rapid economic growth and protecting national sovereignty have been immovable national aims expressed in Chinese foreign policy behaviour since economic reforms were introduced in the late 1970s. Climate change, for its part, is a global concern and monetarily expensive issue which necessitates collective action. At face value, encouraging economic expansion and guarding national sovereignty could easily be viewed as conditions which oppose national actions to mitigate climate change and its potential effects. However in recent years, China has adopted a positive foreign policy tone expressing interest in mitigating climate change through the multilateral United Nations (UN) climate regime. Hence, China is a curious and perhaps contradictory participant in the UNFCCC regime’s institutions. This thesis seeks to answer the following research question: “Why is Chinese foreign policy able to balance supporting national economic development objectives and protect its sovereignty while also increasing UNFCCC multilateral cooperation to abate climate change?” In the course of answering this question, China’s foreign policy motivations in the climate regime are scrutinized using economic nationalism. Briefly, economic nationalism is applied here as an economically oriented ideological construct which incorporates sovereignty and national interests together with diverse economic policies, including interdependence. Supporting this thesis’ research is the three-fold argument which remarks that: First, China’s multilateral climate change engagement is consistent with established foreign policy goals to sustain national economic development and preserve national sovereignty. Second, China has redefined its foreign policy to accommodate the ideological construct of economic nationalism, embodied in the course of its international economic and image-status benefits. Third, as a consequence, comprehending Chinese climate foreign policy consistency will contribute to improving general knowledge and understanding of the climate regime and the methods it uses to encourage developing countries to increase their respective participation in mitigating climate change. This thesis studies China’s strategic cooperation with the climate regime using three climate-related cases, as well as a contrast case which compares contemporary climate mitigation with the abatement of ozone depleting substances (ODS), a precursor environmental issue to climate change. The four cases include: the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Multilateral Fund (MLF), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and the Group of 77 (G77). On the first, the GEF is the climate regime’s original redistributive funding mechanism and China receives the largest quantity of GEF funding. Moreover, China’s experience with the GEF on climate change is contrasted with its earlier experience in combating ODS using the MLF financial redistributive mechanism. Second, the CDM is the foremost financial redistributive mechanism to pay for climate mitigation and clean development projects in developing countries. China, for its part, is host for the largest share CDM projects and the economically valuable GHG Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) they issue. Third, China is the de facto leader for developing countries in climate negotiations through the G77 negotiating bloc. The conclusions reached show that while China’s tone has changed through increased openness and participation, fundamentally, Chinese climate policy is based upon maintaining the continuity of its national interests. Modern economic nationalist ideology has deepened China’s foreign policy engagement on climate change by reconceptualising the global environmental issue as an economic development and image-status growth opportunity. Essentially, for China which is a country that prides itself on high rates of economic growth and whose foreign policy staunchly defends its national sovereignty, embracing forces of globalization through the act of multilaterally engaging on climate change is by no means a contradiction and is rather fully consistent with supporting its longstanding foreign policy objectives.