Academic literature on the topic 'Climatic changes Indonesia Model theory'

ABSTRACTThe theory of the Quaternary climate will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. Here we construct a simple mathematical model for the late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2) coupled with changes in the global ocean state and ice mass, under the additional influence or earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climatic state over this long period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long-term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters. Although the details of this model are speculative, and other factors neglected here are undoubtedly of importance, it is hoped that the formalism described can provide a basis for developing a comprehensive theory and systematically extending and improving it. According to our model the major near-100 ka period ice-age oscillations of the Pleistocene were caused by the downdraw of atmospheric CO2 (possibly a result of weathering of rapidly uplifted topography) to low enough levels for the ‘slow climatic system’, including glacial ice and the deep ocean state, to become unstable.

Small-scale fisheries are facing significant challenges from climate change. Fishers feel the impact of climate change, which forces them to adapt. We, therefore, analyzed local climatic changes, fishers’ perceptions regarding climate change and its impacts, adaptation responses, and determinants. Three decades of meteorological data were analyzed (1985–2020). A total of 300 fishermen were selected using quota sampling and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using the descriptive and binary logit regression models to explain the determinants of adaptation responses. The findings indicate that fishers’ perceptions of climatic changes align with historical climatic data. Typologies of adaptation responses used in the study showed that time fishing adjustment was the most widely used adaptation option by fishermen. For this reason, fishermen are very active in looking for information about climate change to help them find the right time to go to sea and reduce the risk of climate change. Analysis using the binary logit regression model showed that fishing income, boat power, and climate change perceptions were the significant ( p < 0.1 ) factors significantly influencing adaptation responses. Therefore, to strengthen the adaptation responses in small-scale fisheries, fishers’ perceptions should be considered.

Abstract. Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and an ice volume analogous, climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2–3 frequency locking to the same obliquity cycle. The change in dynamics has been suggested to be a result of a slow gradual decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The presence of chaos in the (non-autonomous) glacial dynamics and a critical dependence on initial conditions raises fundamental questions about climate predictability.

Changes in climate and land use land cover (LULC) are important factors that affect water yield (WY). This study explores which factors have more significant impact on changes in WY, spatially and temporally, within the Citarum River Basin Unit (RBU), West Java Province, Indonesia with an area of ±11.317 km2. The climate in the area of Citarum RBU belongs to the Am climate type, which is characterized by the presence of one or more dry months. The objectives of the study were: (1) To estimate a water yield model using integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST), and (2) to test the sensitivity of water yield (WY) to changes in climate variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and in LULC. The integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) approach were used in this study. InVEST is a suite of models used to map and value the goods and services from nature that sustain and fulfill human life. The parameters used for determining the WY are LULC, precipitation, average annual potential evapotranspiration, soil depth, and plant available water content (PAWC). The results showed that the WY within the territory of Citarum RBU was 12.17 billion m3/year, with mean WY (MWY) of 935.26 mm/year. The results also show that the magnitude of MWY in Citarum RBU is lower than the results obtained in Lake Rawa Pening Catchment Areas, Semarang Regency and Salatiga City, Central Java (1.137 mm/year) and in the Patuha Mountain region, Bandung Regency, West Java (2.163 mm/year), which have the same climatic conditions. The WY volume decreased from 2006, to 2012, and 2018. Based on the results of the simulation, climatic parameters played a major role affecting WY compared to changes in LULC in the Citarum RBU. This model also shows that the effect of changes in rainfall (14.06–27.53%) is more dominant followed by the effect of evapotranspiration (10.97–23.86%) and LULC (10.29–12.96%). The InVEST model is very effective and robust for estimating WY in Citarum RBU, which was indicated by high coefficient of determination (R2) 0.9942 and the RSME value of 0.70.

The coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) has raised questions about changes in subsequent environmental effects, mainly forest and land fires. This paper evaluates the implementation of land and forest fire management policies in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in 2020. A qualitative approach was conducted in policy implementation analysis based on George Edward III's theory by looking at bureaucratic structure, resources, communication, and disposition factors. The research focused on the operational work of the Forest and Land Fire Brigade, known as Manggala Agni, in Indonesia. The results showed that the collaborative work of Manggala Agni and the other forest and land fire task forces successfully reduced the hotspots; hence there was a significant decrease in the burned area. It is also inseparable from climatic factors. During this period there was no haze disaster although the task of controlling forest and land fires still encountered several obstacles during the pandemic. This is because of training, technology transfer, budget support, and synergy between stakeholders and Manggala Agni’s team members, so a significant reduction in forest and land fires during 2020 can be achieved.

This paper focused on strategic corporate financial decisions regarding investments to increase firm value moderated by profitability in emerging markets. The analytical method used was panel data analysis, with a total number of observations of 260 energy sector companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019-2021. The results of the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test show the selected random effect model. The model shows that there is an effect of investment decisions on firm value in a positive direction and the moderating role of profitability strengthens this effect. The results of the robustness check show that the research model is still consistent with previous findings. Investment decisions have an effect on firm value, and profitability moderates this effect, both in the assumption of changes in control variables or model estimation using quantile regression. Our findings are in line with the idea of ​​signaling theory that information on the company’s investment decisions is a positive signal that the company has good growth opportunities or prospects so that it will increase the firm value and ultimately have an impact on the prosperity of shareholders. Furthermore, profitability strengthens the positive signal of the company’s reputation in the eyes of investors.

Abstract Studentification occurs in a college town so that the large number and activity of students and those related to universities affect the condition of the city. The impact of students consists of socio-cultural and economic changes that can be seen in physical changes. In the previous research, these changes often result in conflicts between students and residents, less service for residents, and a worsening physical environment. This study aims to find the contributions of the studentification model in Malang city as one of the college towns in Indonesia that occurs in the area adjacent to the campus Brawijaya University Malang City. The method used in this research is Structural Equation Model Partial Least Square. Data were taken through in-depth interviews and online surveys to 32 neighbourhood leaders as respondents. Some of the findings show additional thought contributions to studentification theory, namely: community sustainability and environmental quality improvement.

The research analysis on determining temperature fields, stresses and deformations of transport structures under the influence of variable climatic temperature changes in the environment is carried out. It is established that climatic temperature changes in the environment cause the occurrence of temperature stresses and deformations of transport structures. The main damages and defects of reinforced concrete pipes in operation are given. It is established that one of the causes of defects and damages to reinforced concrete pipes is the level of temperature stresses and deformations that occur in the contact of a metal structure with a reinforced concrete pipe due to the action of variable temperatures caused by climatic temperature changes in the environment. A finite element model is developed for estimating the temperature fields and stresses of reinforced concrete pipes reinforced with metal corrugated structures, taking into account the action of variable climatic temperatures of the environment. The distribution of temperature fields in the transverse and longitudinal directions of reinforced concrete pipe under the action of positive ambient temperatures is calculated. It is established that the temperature field will be unevenly distributed over the pipe surface. In the transverse direction of the pipe, a temperature difference of +10° C was recorded between the reinforced concrete and metal shells. The calculation of temperature stresses and deformations of the pipe under the action of positive ambient temperatures is performed. It is established that the maximum value of normal stresses occurs at the contact of a metal pipe with a reinforced concrete one. At the same time, the value of temperature stresses in the transverse direction of the pipe is 321.61 kPa, in the longitudinal direction it is 321.61 kPa and in the vertical direction, it is 253.84 kPa. It is established that improving the theory and practice of determining the impact of climatic temperature changes on reinforced concrete pipes in the future will allow using appropriate materials and methods to strengthen these structures that meet the real conditions of pipe in operation, which will cause an increase in the service life of these structures in operation.

The rapid advancement of information technology encourages business needs to use technology to serve consumers. Electronic transaction in the form of internet banking is a new way of transfer that changes the form of services from human technology to information technology. This study aims to examine the capability model of the intention to use internet banking in Indonesia. This study is quantitative in the form of a survey study. The sample in this study were non-user customers and prospective internet banking users in both private and state-owned banks. The data were analyzed using the partial least square (PLS). This study contributes to the development of internet banking marketing to improve features, security and service quality. The results show that all hypotheses indicate a positive and significant effect.

This study provides information about the likelihood of the natureof fraud companies so that investors and stakeholders can makebetter decisions. The Beneish model and the fraud theory aretwo well-developed ideas for understanding fraud motivationsand detecting earnings manipulation in a corporation. Unlikeprevious studies using the fraud triangle, this study uses the latesttheory (the fraud hexagon) perspective to detect fraud actions.Thus, this study aims to examine the applicability of the fraudhexagon components in combination with the M-score fromthe Beneish model. Seventy-six manufacturing firms listed onIndonesia Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2019 were chosen assamples. The findings confirmed that enterprises with fraud tendto: be more financially stable, be more leveraged, have higherprofitability, have cooperation projects with the government, havemore related-party transactions, have more auditor changes, beless liquid, less changing directors, be less supervised, and lessdisplay CEO.’s picture.JEL Classification: K40, K42

The ritual animal longs to belong. Rituals are a way of defining the boundaries of social groups and binding their members together. The ritual modes theory set out in this book seeks to unravel the psychology behind these processes, and to explain how ritual behaviour evolved, including how different modes of ritual performance have shaped global history over many millennia. Testing the theory has meant designing experiments run with children in psychology labs and on remote Pacific islands, gathering survey data with armed insurgents in the Middle East and Muslim fundamentalists in Indonesia, monitoring heart rate and stress among football fans in Brazil, and measuring changes in the brain as people observe traditional Chinese rituals in Singapore. The results of all this research point to new ways of addressing cooperation problems: from preventing violent extremism to motivating action on the climate crisis. Although this book is about the role of ritual in the evolution of social complexity, more broadly it models a new approach to the science of the social—an approach that is driven by real-world observation but grounded in the cognitive and evolutionary sciences. More ambitiously still, it shows how cumulative theory building can be used to deliver practical benefits for society at large, perhaps even addressing problems on a global scale by harnessing the formidable cohesive and cooperative capacities of the ritual animal.

There is ample evidence from palaeobotanic and palaeoclimatic reconstructions that during early and mid-Holocene between some 11,700 years (in some regions, a few thousand years earlier) and some 4200 years ago, subtropical North Africa was much more humid and greener than today. This African Humid Period (AHP) was triggered by changes in the orbital forcing, with the climatic precession as the dominant pacemaker. Climate system modeling in the 1990s revealed that orbital forcing alone cannot explain the large changes in the North African summer monsoon and subsequent ecosystem changes in the Sahara. Feedbacks between atmosphere, land surface, and ocean were shown to strongly amplify monsoon and vegetation changes. Forcing and feedbacks have caused changes far larger in amplitude and extent than experienced today in the Sahara and Sahel. Most, if not all, climate system models, however, tend to underestimate the amplitude of past African monsoon changes and the extent of the land-surface changes in the Sahara. Hence, it seems plausible that some feedback processes are not properly described, or are even missing, in the climate system models.Perhaps even more challenging than explaining the existence of the AHP and the Green Sahara is the interpretation of data that reveal an abrupt termination of the last AHP. Based on climate system modeling and theoretical considerations in the late 1990s, it was proposed that the AHP could have ended, and the Sahara could have expanded, within just a few centuries—that is, much faster than orbital forcing. In 2000, paleo records of terrestrial dust deposition off Mauritania seemingly corroborated the prediction of an abrupt termination. However, with the uncovering of more paleo data, considerable controversy has arisen over the geological evidence of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes. Some records clearly show abrupt changes in some climate and terrestrial parameters, while others do not. Also, climate system modeling provides an ambiguous picture.The prediction of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes at the end of the AHP is hampered by limitations implicit in the climate system. Because of the ubiquitous climate variability, it is extremely unlikely that individual paleo records and model simulations completely match. They could do so in a statistical sense, that is, if the statistics of a large ensemble of paleo data and of model simulations converge. Likewise, the interpretation regarding the strength of terrestrial feedback from individual records is elusive. Plant diversity, rarely captured in climate system models, can obliterate any abrupt shift between green and desert state. Hence, the strength of climate—vegetation feedback is probably not a universal property of a certain region but depends on the vegetation composition, which can change with time. Because of spatial heterogeneity of the African landscape and the African monsoon circulation, abrupt changes can occur in several, but not all, regions at different times during the transition from the humid mid-Holocene climate to the present-day more arid climate. Abrupt changes in one region can be induced by abrupt changes in other regions, a process sometimes referred to as “induced tipping.” The African monsoon system seems to be prone to fast and potentially abrupt changes, which to understand and to predict remains one of the grand challenges in African climate science.

Nationalism: Past as Prologue began as a single volume being compiled by Ad Akande, a scholar from South Africa, who proposed it to me as co-author about two years ago. The original idea was to examine how the damaging roots of nationalism have been corroding political systems around the world, and creating dangerous obstacles for necessary international cooperation. Since I (Bruce E. Johansen) has written profusely about climate change (global warming, a.k.a. infrared forcing), I suggested a concerted effort in that direction. This is a worldwide existential threat that affects every living thing on Earth. It often compounds upon itself, so delays in reducing emissions of fossil fuels are shortening the amount of time remaining to eliminate the use of fossil fuels to preserve a livable planet. Nationalism often impedes solutions to this problem (among many others), as nations place their singular needs above the common good. Our initial proposal got around, and abstracts on many subjects arrived. Within a few weeks, we had enough good material for a 100,000-word book. The book then fattened to two moderate volumes and then to four two very hefty tomes. We tried several different titles as good submissions swelled. We also discovered that our best contributors were experts in their fields, which ranged the world. We settled on three stand-alone books:” 1/ nationalism and racial justice. Our first volume grew as the growth of Black Lives Matter following the brutal killing of George Floyd ignited protests over police brutality and other issues during 2020, following the police assassination of Floyd in Minneapolis. It is estimated that more people took part in protests of police brutality during the summer of 2020 than any other series of marches in United States history. This includes upheavals during the 1960s over racial issues and against the war in Southeast Asia (notably Vietnam). We choose a volume on racism because it is one of nationalism’s main motive forces. This volume provides a worldwide array of work on nationalism’s growth in various countries, usually by authors residing in them, or in the United States with ethnic ties to the nation being examined, often recent immigrants to the United States from them. Our roster of contributors comprises a small United Nations of insightful, well-written research and commentary from Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia, China, India, South Africa, France, Portugal, Estonia, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the United States. Volume 2 (this one) describes and analyzes nationalism, by country, around the world, except for the United States; and 3/material directly related to President Donald Trump, and the United States. The first volume is under consideration at the Texas A & M University Press. The other two are under contract to Nova Science Publishers (which includes social sciences). These three volumes may be used individually or as a set. Environmental material is taken up in appropriate places in each of the three books. * * * * * What became the United States of America has been strongly nationalist since the English of present-day Massachusetts and Jamestown first hit North America’s eastern shores. The country propelled itself across North America with the self-serving ideology of “manifest destiny” for four centuries before Donald Trump came along. Anyone who believes that a Trumpian affection for deportation of “illegals” is a new thing ought to take a look at immigration and deportation statistics in Adam Goodman’s The Deportation Machine: America’s Long History of Deporting Immigrants (Princeton University Press, 2020). Between 1920 and 2018, the United States deported 56.3 million people, compared with 51.7 million who were granted legal immigration status during the same dates. Nearly nine of ten deportees were Mexican (Nolan, 2020, 83). This kind of nationalism, has become an assassin of democracy as well as an impediment to solving global problems. Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times (2019:A-25): that “In their 2018 book, How Democracies Die, the political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt documented how this process has played out in many countries, from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to Recep Erdogan’s Turkey, to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Add to these India’s Narendra Modi, China’s Xi Jinping, and the United States’ Donald Trump, among others. Bit by bit, the guardrails of democracy have been torn down, as institutions meant to serve the public became tools of ruling parties and self-serving ideologies, weaponized to punish and intimidate opposition parties’ opponents. On paper, these countries are still democracies; in practice, they have become one-party regimes….And it’s happening here [the United States] as we speak. If you are not worried about the future of American democracy, you aren’t paying attention” (Krugmam, 2019, A-25). We are reminded continuously that the late Carl Sagan, one of our most insightful scientific public intellectuals, had an interesting theory about highly developed civilizations. Given the number of stars and planets that must exist in the vast reaches of the universe, he said, there must be other highly developed and organized forms of life. Distance may keep us from making physical contact, but Sagan said that another reason we may never be on speaking terms with another intelligent race is (judging from our own example) could be their penchant for destroying themselves in relatively short order after reaching technological complexity. This book’s chapters, introduction, and conclusion examine the worldwide rise of partisan nationalism and the damage it has wrought on the worldwide pursuit of solutions for issues requiring worldwide scope, such scientific co-operation public health and others, mixing analysis of both. We use both historical description and analysis. This analysis concludes with a description of why we must avoid the isolating nature of nationalism that isolates people and encourages separation if we are to deal with issues of world-wide concern, and to maintain a sustainable, survivable Earth, placing the dominant political movement of our time against the Earth’s existential crises. Our contributors, all experts in their fields, each have assumed responsibility for a country, or two if they are related. This work entwines themes of worldwide concern with the political growth of nationalism because leaders with such a worldview are disinclined to co-operate internationally at a time when nations must find ways to solve common problems, such as the climate crisis. Inability to cooperate at this stage may doom everyone, eventually, to an overheated, stormy future plagued by droughts and deluges portending shortages of food and other essential commodities, meanwhile destroying large coastal urban areas because of rising sea levels. Future historians may look back at our time and wonder why as well as how our world succumbed to isolating nationalism at a time when time was so short for cooperative intervention which is crucial for survival of a sustainable earth. Pride in language and culture is salubrious to individuals’ sense of history and identity. Excess nationalism that prevents international co-operation on harmful worldwide maladies is quite another. As Pope Francis has pointed out: For all of our connectivity due to expansion of social media, ability to communicate can breed contempt as well as mutual trust. “For all our hyper-connectivity,” said Francis, “We witnessed a fragmentation that made it more difficult to resolve problems that affect us all” (Horowitz, 2020, A-12). The pope’s encyclical, titled “Brothers All,” also said: “The forces of myopic, extremist, resentful, and aggressive nationalism are on the rise.” The pope’s document also advocates support for migrants, as well as resistance to nationalist and tribal populism. Francis broadened his critique to the role of market capitalism, as well as nationalism has failed the peoples of the world when they need co-operation and solidarity in the face of the world-wide corona virus pandemic. Humankind needs to unite into “a new sense of the human family [Fratelli Tutti, “Brothers All”], that rejects war at all costs” (Pope, 2020, 6-A). Our journey takes us first to Russia, with the able eye and honed expertise of Richard D. Anderson, Jr. who teaches as UCLA and publishes on the subject of his chapter: “Putin, Russian identity, and Russia’s conduct at home and abroad.” Readers should find Dr. Anderson’s analysis fascinating because Vladimir Putin, the singular leader of Russian foreign and domestic policy these days (and perhaps for the rest of his life, given how malleable Russia’s Constitution has become) may be a short man physically, but has high ambitions. One of these involves restoring the old Russian (and Soviet) empire, which would involve re-subjugating a number of nations that broke off as the old order dissolved about 30 years ago. President (shall we say czar?) Putin also has international ambitions, notably by destabilizing the United States, where election meddling has become a specialty. The sight of Putin and U.S. president Donald Trump, two very rich men (Putin $70-$200 billion; Trump $2.5 billion), nuzzling in friendship would probably set Thomas Jefferson and Vladimir Lenin spinning in their graves. The road of history can take some unanticipated twists and turns. Consider Poland, from which we have an expert native analysis in chapter 2, Bartosz Hlebowicz, who is a Polish anthropologist and journalist. His piece is titled “Lawless and Unjust: How to Quickly Make Your Own Country a Puppet State Run by a Group of Hoodlums – the Hopeless Case of Poland (2015–2020).” When I visited Poland to teach and lecture twice between 2006 and 2008, most people seemed to be walking on air induced by freedom to conduct their own affairs to an unusual degree for a state usually squeezed between nationalists in Germany and Russia. What did the Poles then do in a couple of decades? Read Hlebowicz’ chapter and decide. It certainly isn’t soft-bellied liberalism. In Chapter 3, with Bruce E. Johansen, we visit China’s western provinces, the lands of Tibet as well as the Uighurs and other Muslims in the Xinjiang region, who would most assuredly resent being characterized as being possessed by the Chinese of the Han to the east. As a student of Native American history, I had never before thought of the Tibetans and Uighurs as Native peoples struggling against the Independence-minded peoples of a land that is called an adjunct of China on most of our maps. The random act of sitting next to a young woman on an Air India flight out of Hyderabad, bound for New Delhi taught me that the Tibetans had something to share with the Lakota, the Iroquois, and hundreds of other Native American states and nations in North America. Active resistance to Chinese rule lasted into the mid-nineteenth century, and continues today in a subversive manner, even in song, as I learned in 2018 when I acted as a foreign adjudicator on a Ph.D. dissertation by a Tibetan student at the University of Madras (in what is now in a city called Chennai), in southwestern India on resistance in song during Tibet’s recent history. Tibet is one of very few places on Earth where a young dissident can get shot to death for singing a song that troubles China’s Quest for Lebensraum. The situation in Xinjiang region, where close to a million Muslims have been interned in “reeducation” camps surrounded with brick walls and barbed wire. They sing, too. Come with us and hear the music. Back to Europe now, in Chapter 4, to Portugal and Spain, we find a break in the general pattern of nationalism. Portugal has been more progressive governmentally than most. Spain varies from a liberal majority to military coups, a pattern which has been exported to Latin America. A situation such as this can make use of the term “populism” problematic, because general usage in our time usually ties the word into a right-wing connotative straightjacket. “Populism” can be used to describe progressive (left-wing) insurgencies as well. José Pinto, who is native to Portugal and also researches and writes in Spanish as well as English, in “Populism in Portugal and Spain: a Real Neighbourhood?” provides insight into these historical paradoxes. Hungary shares some historical inclinations with Poland (above). Both emerged from Soviet dominance in an air of developing freedom and multicultural diversity after the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed. Then, gradually at first, right wing-forces began to tighten up, stripping structures supporting popular freedom, from the courts, mass media, and other institutions. In Chapter 5, Bernard Tamas, in “From Youth Movement to Right-Liberal Wing Authoritarianism: The Rise of Fidesz and the Decline of Hungarian Democracy” puts the renewed growth of political and social repression into a context of worldwide nationalism. Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University, has been a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University and a Fulbright scholar at the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. His books include From Dissident to Party Politics: The Struggle for Democracy in Post-Communist Hungary (2007). Bear in mind that not everyone shares Orbán’s vision of what will make this nation great, again. On graffiti-covered walls in Budapest, Runes (traditional Hungarian script) has been found that read “Orbán is a motherfucker” (Mikanowski, 2019, 58). Also in Europe, in Chapter 6, Professor Ronan Le Coadic, of the University of Rennes, Rennes, France, in “Is There a Revival of French Nationalism?” Stating this title in the form of a question is quite appropriate because France’s nationalistic shift has built and ebbed several times during the last few decades. For a time after 2000, it came close to assuming the role of a substantial minority, only to ebb after that. In 2017, the candidate of the National Front reached the second round of the French presidential election. This was the second time this nationalist party reached the second round of the presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic. In 2002, however, Jean-Marie Le Pen had only obtained 17.79% of the votes, while fifteen years later his daughter, Marine Le Pen, almost doubled her father's record, reaching 33.90% of the votes cast. Moreover, in the 2019 European elections, re-named Rassemblement National obtained the largest number of votes of all French political formations and can therefore boast of being "the leading party in France.” The brutality of oppressive nationalism may be expressed in personal relationships, such as child abuse. While Indonesia and Aotearoa [the Maoris’ name for New Zealand] hold very different ranks in the United Nations Human Development Programme assessments, where Indonesia is classified as a medium development country and Aotearoa New Zealand as a very high development country. In Chapter 7, “Domestic Violence Against Women in Indonesia and Aotearoa New Zealand: Making Sense of Differences and Similarities” co-authors, in Chapter 8, Mandy Morgan and Dr. Elli N. Hayati, from New Zealand and Indonesia respectively, found that despite their socio-economic differences, one in three women in each country experience physical or sexual intimate partner violence over their lifetime. In this chapter ther authors aim to deepen understandings of domestic violence through discussion of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of theit countries to address domestic violence alongside studies of women’s attitudes to gender norms and experiences of intimate partner violence. One of the most surprising and upsetting scholarly journeys that a North American student may take involves Adolf Hitler’s comments on oppression of American Indians and Blacks as he imagined the construction of the Nazi state, a genesis of nationalism that is all but unknown in the United States of America, traced in this volume (Chapter 8) by co-editor Johansen. Beginning in Mein Kampf, during the 1920s, Hitler explicitly used the westward expansion of the United States across North America as a model and justification for Nazi conquest and anticipated colonization by Germans of what the Nazis called the “wild East” – the Slavic nations of Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Russia, most of which were under control of the Soviet Union. The Volga River (in Russia) was styled by Hitler as the Germans’ Mississippi, and covered wagons were readied for the German “manifest destiny” of imprisoning, eradicating, and replacing peoples the Nazis deemed inferior, all with direct references to events in North America during the previous century. At the same time, with no sense of contradiction, the Nazis partook of a long-standing German romanticism of Native Americans. One of Goebbels’ less propitious schemes was to confer honorary Aryan status on Native American tribes, in the hope that they would rise up against their oppressors. U.S. racial attitudes were “evidence [to the Nazis] that America was evolving in the right direction, despite its specious rhetoric about equality.” Ming Xie, originally from Beijing, in the People’s Republic of China, in Chapter 9, “News Coverage and Public Perceptions of the Social Credit System in China,” writes that The State Council of China in 2014 announced “that a nationwide social credit system would be established” in China. “Under this system, individuals, private companies, social organizations, and governmental agencies are assigned a score which will be calculated based on their trustworthiness and daily actions such as transaction history, professional conduct, obedience to law, corruption, tax evasion, and academic plagiarism.” The “nationalism” in this case is that of the state over the individual. China has 1.4 billion people; this system takes their measure for the purpose of state control. Once fully operational, control will be more subtle. People who are subject to it, through modern technology (most often smart phones) will prompt many people to self-censor. Orwell, modernized, might write: “Your smart phone is watching you.” Ming Xie holds two Ph.Ds, one in Public Administration from University of Nebraska at Omaha and another in Cultural Anthropology from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, where she also worked for more than 10 years at a national think tank in the same institution. While there she summarized news from non-Chinese sources for senior members of the Chinese Communist Party. Ming is presently an assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, West Texas A&M University. In Chapter 10, analyzing native peoples and nationhood, Barbara Alice Mann, Professor of Honours at the University of Toledo, in “Divide, et Impera: The Self-Genocide Game” details ways in which European-American invaders deprive the conquered of their sense of nationhood as part of a subjugation system that amounts to genocide, rubbing out their languages and cultures -- and ultimately forcing the native peoples to assimilate on their own, for survival in a culture that is foreign to them. Mann is one of Native American Studies’ most acute critics of conquests’ contradictions, and an author who retrieves Native history with a powerful sense of voice and purpose, having authored roughly a dozen books and numerous book chapters, among many other works, who has traveled around the world lecturing and publishing on many subjects. Nalanda Roy and S. Mae Pedron in Chapter 11, “Understanding the Face of Humanity: The Rohingya Genocide.” describe one of the largest forced migrations in the history of the human race, the removal of 700,000 to 800,000 Muslims from Buddhist Myanmar to Bangladesh, which itself is already one of the most crowded and impoverished nations on Earth. With about 150 million people packed into an area the size of Nebraska and Iowa (population less than a tenth that of Bangladesh, a country that is losing land steadily to rising sea levels and erosion of the Ganges river delta. The Rohingyas’ refugee camp has been squeezed onto a gigantic, eroding, muddy slope that contains nearly no vegetation. However, Bangladesh is majority Muslim, so while the Rohingya may starve, they won’t be shot to death by marauding armies. Both authors of this exquisite (and excruciating) account teach at Georgia Southern University in Savannah, Georgia, Roy as an associate professor of International Studies and Asian politics, and Pedron as a graduate student; Roy originally hails from very eastern India, close to both Myanmar and Bangladesh, so he has special insight into the context of one of the most brutal genocides of our time, or any other. This is our case describing the problems that nationalism has and will pose for the sustainability of the Earth as our little blue-and-green orb becomes more crowded over time. The old ways, in which national arguments often end in devastating wars, are obsolete, given that the Earth and all the people, plants, and other animals that it sustains are faced with the existential threat of a climate crisis that within two centuries, more or less, will flood large parts of coastal cities, and endanger many species of plants and animals. To survive, we must listen to the Earth, and observe her travails, because they are increasingly our own.

Abstract This book chapter dicsusses the data, methodological strategies, and findings, and the final section concludes with a discussion of key policy implications and directions for future research regarding climate change, livelihoods, and domestic violence in Indonesia. This study argues that climate shocks in Indonesia elevate the incidence of domestic violence via their impact on agriculture and agrarian livelihoods. Those relying on agriculture as a primary income source in Indonesia-approximately 41% of the population=suffer when climatic stress diminishes earnings through job loss and reduced crop yields. The impact can reduce food security, especially for subsistence farmers, but also for the broader population when scarcity elevates local food prices. Food already consumes 70% of household budgets for half the population, with rice comprising the largest share-over 25% of total household expenditures for the poorest quintile. Thus, even minor reductions in yields or inflation in local rice markets can have dire effects. These impacts are anticipated to exacerbate social and psychological pressures-stress, anxiety, depression, trauma, substance abuse-commonly associated with domestic and intimate partner violence, which in turn should increase its incidence within affected regions. This study uses data from the Global SPEI database and the NVMS to model the relationship between climate change and domestic violence in Indonesia. It finds that positive and negative deviations from long-term climate averages, when occurring in December-the core month of the Indonesian rice-planting season-increase the incidence of domestic violence in the following year. This relationship likely reflects the negative impact of climate shocks on agricultural sectors and livelihoods, an outcome which aggravates the emotional and psychological preconditions for domestic violence and abuse, disproportionately diminishes women's bargaining power in the household, and reduces women's ability to escape abusive situations. These effects are especially prominent in areas with higher levels of poverty, further illustrating the economic dimension of the causal process.

The impacts of climate change are changes in rainfall patterns, sea level rise and extreme weather or extreme meteorological events. This impact will further provide dangers that threaten the sustainability of human life. The main causes of climate change are deforestation and forest degradation and the growth rate of industry and transportation modes that are not environmentally friendly. Therefore, Indonesia is participating in the Paris Agreement and implementing the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation program, role of conservation, sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). In an effort to increase the prosperity of the State, many forests have been transferred to other uses such as the development of oil palm plantations, agricultural land and urban expansion etc. In fact, many agricultural lands have changed their function into settlements. If this happens, the forest area will continue to decrease again because after the agricultural land has turned into residential land, the forest land is converted again for agricultural expansion, this happens continuously. When viewed from the CO2 flux, there will also be changes in the basic CO2 flux from forest land, plantation land, agriculture and urban areas. The problem of deforestation and forest degradation is inseparable from the large number of forest conversion functions into oil palm plantations, expansion of agricultural areas and other uses such as urban development and infrastructure. Opportunities for climate change mitigation and adaptation include the implementation of the REDD+ program, financing of climate change mitigation and availability of climate information. The challenges faced include the lack of synergy in the policy framework and implementation of climate change control, recognition of indigenous peoples’ rights and uncertainty in the implementation of the REDD+ program.

Atmospheric composition played an important part in the development of chemistry, following the work of Priestley, Lavoisier, and Dalton. Since air is a mixture of gases, many of them chemically reactive, see for example Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts (2000) and Graedel et al. (1986), which is subject to solar photons, absorbs and emits infrared photons, experiences temperatures ranging from −100 to 40° C, is exposed to the ocean, encompasses phase changes of water and sustains turbulent flow, it involves significant parts of physical chemistry. Pedagogically, the three-volume set by Berry, Rice, and Ross (2002a, b, c) covers the basic physicochemical material clearly and thoroughly, particularly Chapters 19, 20, 27, 28, 30, and 31. In addition to kinetic molecular theory, chemical kinetics, spectroscopy, and equilibrium statistical mechanics, there are other branches of physical science which are applicable to the atmosphere; in our context they include of course meteorology and turbulence theory. It ought to be recognized that the atmosphere has high complexity arising from a vast number of degrees of freedom, several anisotropies, and morphologically complicated boundaries extending over 15 orders of magnitude in scale from the molecular mean free path to the Earth’s circumference; these factors and the concomitant non-linearities make the application of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics a daunting prospect, but nevertheless one which should be attempted, for the reason that the energy distributions and their transformations in the atmosphere need to be accurately described, particularly in the representation and prognosis of the climatic state. We will also show that vorticity is the fundamental variable, since vortices are generated from molecular populations subjected to an anisotropy, on very short space scales and fast time scales. In this Chapter we will give a skeletal survey connecting these basic subjects, with references to more comprehensive, individual sources. The simplest possible molecular model for a gas is a collection of spherical ‘billiard balls’—the intermolecular potential consists of an infinite repulsive force on contact. This approach, pioneered by Waterston, Maxwell, and Boltzmann, is successful for air as a first approximation. The idea is that collisions are completely elastic, with no interaction between potential collidant molecules until physical contact occurs, whereupon an infinite repulsive potential operates.

Experience over the last decade has demonstrated a gradual rise in global temperatures, which coupled with the unpredictable precipitation patterns (rainfall & Snow/ glacier melt are considered as important hydrologic process in the Himalayan basins), are expected to seriously affect the melt characteristics and further increase pressure on available water resources (both quantity and quality). The situation is being exacerbated intensified by the increasing water demands from agriculture, industry and rising population. However, current investigations reveal that there is a lack of a general framework for assessment. The major responsibility of the planning community is to adopt rational planning approach addressing the complexity of the system, yet it is appearing that the models used at various stages are not well developed to keep the same pace. This demands the acknowledgment and a better understanding of the dynamic inter-linkage and interdependence of the complex systems and sub-systems (namely physical, social, economic, ecology, environment, infrastructure, and institutional subsystems) using system dynamics technique. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for assessing the climate change and its impact on a region by demonstrating the inadequacy of sectoral and silobased planning approaches to address the complex sustainable development challenges whose interdependencies and inter-linkages transcend individual sectors and administrative borders. Further, this paper attempts to present the review of research done on the use of an integrated approach by using system dynamics technique in the context of evolving development plans. It concludes with extending the knowledge to support climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions to achieve sustainable development at the regional scale.

With the increasing climate change, the contradiction between the vulnerable natural conditions and rapid urbanization in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area becomes much more prominent. Urban security is threatened by various severe natural disasters, such as rising sea level, storm surges, and intensified floods, etc. To solve this problem, based on the theory of resilient city, this paper develops three resilient urban design principles: 1) integrated city principle; 2) adaptive technology principle; 3) flexible design principle, and build a research-designfeedback loop pattern. In the research and prediction stage, we quantitatively calculate the influence of natural disasters that may happen in the future in the Greater Bay Area and map the disaster influence in the natural basement layer, urban infrastructure network layer and urban settlement layer by Geographic Information System(GIS) through scenario stimulation. Based on this, the most severely affected areas in the future will be defined as key design areas. In the urban design stage, we focus on one of the key design areas – Pazhou and stimulate multiple scenarios to assess the urban resilient risk. We propose different integrated urban design strategies to balance the urban development and risk, select the adaptive hydraulic engineering technology to realize a more sustainable green infrastructure and build a flexible development framework to face the future uncertainty. In the evaluation and feedback stage, we develop a time series model of heavy rainfall to evaluate urban resilience in different design and quantify the impact of natural disasters through a set of urban resilience indicators in various layers, in order to pick up more resilient design to optimize. The practice experience shows that the resilient city is a long-term process, which requires an interdisciplinary cooperation mode, among research, design and feedback and a great management and control platform and a multi-objective evaluation index system so as to achieve real-time monitoring, regular evaluation, and dynamic control. This study attempts to make up for the lack of resilience city research in planning and design practice, to provide practical experience for the next stage of urban building.

The design of pavement structure is as a set of several activities related to the design of road construction, dimension and model calculations. This includes calculations of load effects, taking into account the properties of the materials, the subgrade conditions, and the climatic conditions. The measurements of climatic conditions in Slovakia were the basis for assessing changes in average daily air temperatures in individual seasons. Since the 19th century we have seen in Slovakia an increase in the average air temperature of 1.5 ° C. Currently, there are scenarios of climate change until 2100. An increase in air temperature is assumed, with an increase in average monthly temperatures of 2.0 to 4.8 °C. In road construction, as well as in other areas of engineering, we must respond to current climate change and also to expected changes. The average annual air temperature and the frost index are the critical climatic characteristics are the main for the design (input parameter) and evaluation of pavement. From the practical side it is possible to use the design maps of average annual air temperature and frost index according to STN 73 6114 from year 1997. In cooperation with the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute from the long-term monitoring of temperatures, different meteorological characteristics were measured in the current period. From the measurements of twelve professional meteorological stations for the period 1971 to 2020, the dependence between two variables in probability theory is derived. The average annual air temperatures used for prognoses are collected from long-term measurements (fifty years). The design of road constructions and calculations of road construction models, which are in the system design solution (comparative calculations of asphalt pavement- and cement-concrete pavement models), we have also tested road construction materials - especially asphalt mixtures. The results were used to correct the values of input data, design criteria, as well as measures to reduce the impact of changes in climate conditions.

Background: Breast self-examination (BSE) is a technique that allows a woman to examine her breast tissue for any physical or visual changes. It is important to help women in the early detection of breast abnormality. This study aimed to determine factors affecting breast self examination among university students using health belief model and theory of planned behavior. Subjects and Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Universitas Sebelas Maret, from August to September 2019. A sample of 200 female collage students was selected by simple random sampling. The dependent variable was breast-self examination. The independent variables were knowledge, perceived benefit, perceived barrier, intention, attitude, self-efficacy, cues to action, and subjective norm. The data were collected by questionnaire and analyzed by path analysis run on Stata 13. Results: BSE was directly increased by strong intention (b= 1.39; 95% CI= 0.58 to 2.21; p= 0.001), strong self-efficacy (b= 1.53; 95% CI= 0.75 to 2.30; p<0.001), and strong cues to action (b= 1.34; 95% CI= 0.56 to 2.11; p= 0.001). BSE was indirectly affected by attitude, cues to action, perceived barrier, perceived benefit, subjective norm, and knowledge. Conclusion: BSE was directly increased by strong intention (b= 1.39; 95% CI= 0.58 to 2.21; p= 0.001), strong self-efficacy (b= 1.53; 95% CI= 0.75 to 2.30; p<0.001), and strong cues to action (b= 1.34; 95% CI= 0.56 to 2.11; p= 0.001). BSE was indirectly affected by attitude, cues to action, perceived barrier, perceived benefit, subjective norm, and knowledge Keywords: breast cancer, breast self examination, path analysis Correspondence: Asruria Sani Fajriah. Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A, Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia. Email: sanifajriah@gmail.com. Mobile: +6285790341801. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26911/the7thicph.02.42

Abstract Technology adoption in low-income regions is among the key challenges facing international development projects. Nearly 40% of the world’s population relies on open fires and rudimentary cooking devices exacerbating health outcomes, deforestation, and climatic impacts of inefficient biomass burning. Clean technology alternatives such as clean cookstoves are among the most challenging technologies to approach their target goals through sustainable adoption due to lack of systematic market-driven design for adoption. Thus, a method is needed to provide insight regarding how target customers evaluate and perceive causes for adopting a clean technology. The holistic approach of this study captures the three main aspects of technology adoption through lenses of social networks, individual and society scale beliefs, and rational decision-making behavior. Based on data collected in the Apac region in Northern Uganda, an Agent-Based Model is developed to simulate emerging adoption behavior in a community. Then, four different scenarios investigate how adoption patterns change due to potential changes in technology or intervention strategy. These scenarios include influence of stove malfunctions, price elasticity, information campaigns, and strength of social network. Results suggest that higher adoption rates are achievable if designed technologies are more durable, information campaigns provide realistic expectations for users, policy makers and education programs work toward women’s empowerment, and communal social ties are recognized for influence maximization. Application of this study provides insight for technology designers, project implementers, and policy makers to update their practices for achieving sustainable and to the scale clean technology adoption rates.

Abstract Indonesia is a main country supplying coal in the Asia-Pacific region, it is important to ensure a stable coal supply to Japan. Because the topography of the seabed near East Kalimantan Island, Indonesia’s main coal production area, is shallow, it is difficult for bulk carriers to reach the coast. Therefore, Large-Scale Floating Coal Transshipment Station (LFTS) was proposed, which will be used as a relay base between coal-barging barges from land and bulk carriers offshore. Installing an LFTS offshore from East Kalimantan is expected to improve coal transport productivity. LFTS can store coal equivalent to five times the capacity of one bulk carrier (total 500,000T), and can accommodate 2 bulk carriers at the same time during offloading. The scale of LFTS is 590m × 160m. The LFTS has a flat spread and the elastic behavior becomes the dominant Structure. The upper part of the LFTS is different rigidity partly because the partition wall to be loaded by dividing the coal into each quality is provided. Loaded coal not only changes the draft of the LFTS but also greatly deforms the LFTS and is expected to cause local stress concentration on the structural members. Therefore, this paper investigates wave response characteristics and stress characteristics with the coal loading of the LFTS, and then evaluation of structural strength by limit state design method. In this study, linear potential theory and the finite element method (FEM) were used to analyze the static hydroelastic motion under various coal loading condition and wave response of LFTS. And, to grasp the local stress concentration occurring inside the LFTS by using the response results, a detailed model modeling a complicated internal structure was prepared. Zooming analysis which is a method of giving the deformation result by the whole model of LFTS as forced displacement to the local detailed model was carried out. As a result, depending on the coal loading condition and wave conditions, it became clear that LFTS will be in a tough situation.