Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climatic change'

Thesis (Ph.D)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.
Committee Chair: Georgakakos, Aris; Committee Member: Fu, Rong; Committee Member: Peters-Lidard, Christa; Committee Member: Roberts, Phil; Committee Member: Sturm, Terry; Committee Member: Webster, Don.

The primary aim of the research work is to focus on the effects of climate change for maintaining physical infrastructures (i.e. such as buildings, dams, bridges, road pavements and other road infrastructures). As infrastructure requires major investment, it is important to build necessary management system to cope with future changes. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures are critical. However, most infrastructures has been designed, built and maintained on the premise that the future climate will be similar to that experienced in the past. Since the occurrence of the most recent climate disasters in Queensland, Australia, it has become mandatory to put especial policies for design and maintenance purposes of infrastructures . Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable initial step towards improved planning of new infrastructure investments and mitigating. Road infrastructure especially pavement requires special type of maintenance policy as the material of pavement like bitumen is very much sensitive to these types of effects such as moisture or temperature.
Thesis (Masters)
Master of Philosophy (MPhil)
Griffith School of Engineering
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Engineering.
This research has analysed the economy-wide impacts of carbon tax as a policy option to reduce the rate of growth of carbon-dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in Australia. These impacts are analysed for energy and non energy sectors of the economy. An energy-oriented Input–Output framework, with ‘flexible’ production functions, based on Translog and Cobb-Douglas formulations, is employed for the analysis of various impacts. Further, two alternative conceptions of carbon tax are considered in this research, namely, based on Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) and Shared Responsibility Principle (SRP). In the first instance, the impacts are analysed, for the period 2005–2020, for tax levels of $10 and $20 per tonne of CO2, in a situation of no a-priori limit on CO2 emissions. The analysis shows that CO2 emissions from the electricity sector, when carbon tax is based on PPP, would be 211 and 152 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively (as compared to 250 Mt in the Base Case scenario, that is, the business-as-usual-case). The net economic costs, corresponding with these tax levels, expressed in present value terms, would be $27 and $49 billion, respectively, over the period 2005-2020. These economic costs are equivalent to 0.43 and 0.78 per cent of the estimated GDP of Australia. Further, most of the economic burden, in this instance, would fall on the electricity sector, particularly coal-fired electricity generators – large consumers of direct fossil fuel. On the other hand, in the case of a carbon tax based on SRP, CO2 emissions would be 172 and 116 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively. The corresponding net economic costs would be $47 (0.74 per cent of GDP) and $84 (1.34 per cent of GDP) billion, respectively, with significant burden felt by the commercial sector – large consumers of indirect energy and materials whose production would contribute to CO2 emissions. Next, the impacts are analysed by placing an a-priori limit on CO2 emissions from the electricity sector – equivalent to 108 per cent of the 1990 level (that is, 138 Mt), by the year 2020. Two cases are analysed, namely, early action (carbon tax introduced in 2005) and deferred action (carbon tax introduced in 2010). In the case of early action, the analysis suggests, carbon tax of $25 and $15, based on PPP and SRP, respectively, would be required to achieve the above noted emissions target. The corresponding tax levels in the case of deferred action are $51 and $26, respectively. This research also shows that the net economic costs, in the case of early action, would be $32 billion (for PPP) and $18 billion (for SRP) higher than those in the case of deferred action. However, this research has demonstrated, that this inference is largely due to the selection of particular indicator (that is, present value) and the relatively short time frame (that is, 2005–2020) for analysis. By extending the time frame of the analysis to the year 2040, the case for an early introduction of carbon tax strengthens. Overall, the analysis in this research suggests that an immediate introduction of carbon tax, based on SRP, is the most attractive approach to reduce the rate of growth of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector and to simultaneously meet economic and social objectives. If the decision to introduce such a tax is deferred, it would be rather difficult to achieve not only environmental objectives but economic and social objectives as well.

This thesis aims to develop an understanding of the relationship between climate, topography and glacier fluctuations in Iceland. A mass balance/glacier flow model is applied to the Holocene fluctuations of Sólheimajökull, an outlet glacier in southern Iceland. The model is also used to predict the response of Sólheimajökull to future climatic warming. The findings provide insight into the spatial variability of glacier fluctuations in Iceland, and the dynamics of Holocene climatic changes in the North Atlantic. The results from the model suggest that the response of Icelandic glaciers to climatic change can be related to glacier area-altitude distribution. Outlet valley glaciers located in high precipitation areas descend to elevations of 0-100 m where air temperature is mild. Ablation occurs throughout the year and glacier mass balance has a large amplitude response to temperature variations. Furthermore, outlet valley glaciers experience dynamic length variations in response to climatic change. This is a geometric effect where small changes in ice cap volume result in significant fluctuations in glacier lengths. In contrast, wide ice cap lobes in central Iceland exhibit a different response to climatic change. Precipitation levels are lower and glaciers terminate at altitudes of 600-800 m. Ablation is restricted to the summer months, and glacier mass-balance has a lower amplitude response to temperature variations. In addition, ice cap lobes experience smaller dynamic length fluctuations in response to climatic change. This is because ice cap margins undergo small changes in extent to response to changes in glacier volume. Finally, where ice cap lobes terminate on sandur plains, further advance leads to glacier widening and an unsustainable increase in ablation. The numerical model is used to successfully reconstruct Holocene climatic changes over the last 5000 years from the record of glacier length variations in Sólheimajökull.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.
Committee Chair: Armistead G. Russell; Committee Member: Athanasios Nenes; Committee Member: M. Talat Odman; Committee Member: Michael Bergin; Committee Member: Yuhang Wang.

This thesis seeks to examine the politics of building resilience to climate change by analysing the manner in which policy contexts and initiatives to build climate change resilience interact. For analysis, the ‘policy context' is broken into its three constituent parts- actors, policy spaces and discourses. This permits the addition of new knowledge on how discourses attached to resilience are dissonant with those prevailing in ossified policy environments in developing countries; the influence of actor networks, epistemic communities, knowledge intermediaries and policy entrepreneurs in helping climate change resilience gain traction in policy environments; and the dynamic interaction of interest, agendas and power within decision-making spaces attached to resilience-building processes. This analysis takes place by employing a case-study of a major, international climate change resilience initiative unfolding in two Indian cities. Using data gathered through a variety of rigorous qualitative research methods employed over 14 months of empirical inquiry the thesis highlights issues of politics and power to argue that they are significant determinants of processes to deal with climate impacts. More specifically, it expands current understandings of engaging with climate impacts by exposing gaps in resilience thinking and argues against a technocratic approach to designing and executing resilience policies. In doing so it also demonstrates that resilience, with its emphasis on systems thinking, dealing with uncertainty and community engagement brings new challenges for policy makers. As the study is located in the urban context, it highlights the manner in which fragmented urban policy environments, dense patterns of settlement in cities, urban livelihood patterns and prevailing epistemic cultures can pose obstacles for a policy initiative aimed at building resilience to climate change. Finally, the research underlines the importance of coupling resilience with local narratives of dealing with shocks and stresses, argues for genuine iteration and shared learning during decision-making and highlights the need to celebrate multiple visions of resilience. Findings from this research can help inform a growing number of policy initiatives aimed at deploying resilience to help those battling the exigencies of a changing climate in some of the world's most vulnerable areas.

Thesis (M. S.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.
Committee Chair: Rong Fu; Committee Member: Robert Dickinson; Committee Member: Robert X. Black. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

Climate change is expected to affect the high latitudes first and most severely, rendering Antarctica one of the most significant baseline environments for the study of global climate change. The indirect effects of climate warming, including changes to the availability of key environmental resources, such as water and nutrients, are likely to have a greater impact upon Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems than the effects of fluctuations in temperature alone. Water availability is the focus in this thesis for two main reasons; firstly, there is a wealth of evidence to suggest water is currently limiting to Antarctic plant distributions and productivity, and secondly, availability of this key resource is predicted to change with the onset of climate change. Nutrient availability is a second variable considered in this work, as there is evidence to suggest that nutrients also play a role in determining plant species distributions, and changes to nutrient balance and turnover rates are also expected in response to climate change. This work was conducted in the floristically important Windmill Islands region of East Antarctica, with the three Windmill Islands moss species Bryum pseudotriquetrum, Ceratodon purpureus and Grimmia antarctici forming its focus. A combination of field ecology, ecophysiology and laboratory studies were used to determine fine-scale patterns of present species distributions and their relationship to naturally occurring water and nutrient resource gradients, the impact of increased water and nutrients on a range of cryptogamic communities, and tolerance of desiccation biological profiles. A survey-based approach was used to determine species level patterns in bryophyte species distributions, and identify correlations with resource availability. Ten replicate transects, along community gradients, from pure bryophyte stands, through transitional moribund bryophyte zones, to lichen-dominated communities, were surveyed at two sites. The physical environment at each site was characterised by measurement of site soil properties, along with individual transect aspects and slopes. To determine the relationship between resource gradients and community patterns water and nutrient availability, along with a range of plant biochemistry measures indicative of the growth environment, were measured using a series of quadrats along each transect. Percent abundance for each species and/or vegetation category was determined for each quadrat by microscopic examination of field samples. The community gradient, covering the entire ecological range of past and present bryophyte occupation, was found to be accompanied by resource gradients that operated in opposing directions. Pure bryophyte communities existed under conditions of high water availability and low nutrient availability. Crustose lichen-dominated communities persisted under opposing environmental conditions, of low water availability and high nutrient availability. Grimmia antarctici dominated the wettest habitats but its distribution extended into the dry moribund zones, albeit in low levels of abundance. Bryum pseudotriquetrum occurred in consistent levels of abundance across the entire gradient, whilst C. purpureus was restricted to the driest habitats. Live bryophyte material was found to occur in moribund turf, supporting the potential for bryophyte regeneration under a future wetter climate. Regenerating turf showed potential to support high species diversity, as all four bryophytes survive in this zone. To investigate the likely impacts of a wetter climate on Antarctic terrestrial communities, four cryptogamic communities, pure bryophyte, moribund bryophyte, crustose and fructicose lichen-dominated communities were subject to a multi-season manipulative field experiment. Within each community type, eight replicate quadrats received increased water and/or nutrient availability over two consecutive summer seasons. A range of physiological and biochemical measurements were conducted in order to quantify the community response to the treatments and determine the extent of any nutrient and water limitation. Few multi-season manipulative field experiments have been conducted in continental Antarctica. Whilst an overall increase in productivity in response to water and nutrient additions was supported, productivity appeared to respond more strongly to nutrient additions than to water additions. Pure bryophyte and fructicose lichen communities also showed stronger positive responses to additions, identifying some communities that may be better able to adapt and prosper under the ameliorating conditions associated with a warmer, wetter future climate. Using a range of morphological, biochemical and physiological techniques, biological profiles related to desiccation tolerance were developed for the three bryophyte study species, providing measures of relative abilities to avoid, tolerate, recover from and survive desiccation. Ceratodon purpureus showed good desiccation avoidance characteristics, its photosynthetic efficiency remained high at low water contents and it was lipid rich, suggesting that this species is well adapted to survive a drying climate. Bryum pseudotriquetrum is also likely to survive drier conditions, as this species showed good desiccation avoidance, had a plastic response to desiccation, and contained stachyose, which is likely to assist in its survival of desiccation events. Conversely, G. antarctici showed poor desiccation avoidance, as photosynthetic efficiency required highest water contents and it contained few protective substances, this species is therefore least likely to survive a drying environment. This study provides a baseline from which future changes to the Windmill Islands cryptogamic communities can be monitored. A baseline incorporating fine-scale bryophyte species patterns is particularly useful, as this component of the cryptogamic community is likely to be highly sensitive to even small shifts in water availability and detection of change is likely to be more sensitive at fine- rather than broad-scales. Both water and nutrient resource availability was found to underlie regional bryophyte species distributional patterns. The dynamics of the Windmill Islands flora is therefore likely to shift in response to climate change as the availability of these key resources is altered. Under a wetter future climate, productivity is overall likely to increase but only certain cryptogamic communities are likely to thrive. Regeneration of moribund bryophytes appears likely only if the future moisture regime creates consistently moist conditions. Bryum pseudotriquetrum is most likely to survive both a drying climate and also a fluctuating climate, which is a highly likely scenario for the region. Under a drier climate, the Antarctic endemic, G. antarctici, is likely to be most adversely affected, as it dominates only the wettest communities and generally shows poor tolerance of desiccation. Conservation issues are therefore raised for this species, if the current drying trend continues, creating overall biodiversity concerns.

This thesis examines the spatial and temporal expression of Holocene glacier fluctuations in southeast Iceland. The study uses geomorphological evidence to reconstruct the former extent of Lambatungnajökull -a non-surging, valley glacier flowing from the eastern flank of the Vatnajökull ice-cap. Lichenometry is used to date recent glacial landforms and decode the pattern of glacier fluctuations over the last 300 years. Tephrochronology is used to date older features (<10,000 yr). The results show a pattern of fluctuations driven by climatic change. During the Lateglacial-Early Holocene Period the glacier terminus was situated at the present-day coastline. The ice-margin has retreated c. 20 km during the last 10,000 years. At least four periods of glacier re-advance have been identified, at c. 5000,3000,1600 and 170 years BP. Overall, the cumulative ice recession since c. 10 ka BP represents an ELA rise of c. 400 m which equates to an increase in mean air temperature of at least 2°C, assuming constant precipitation levels. Since the late 181" century, Lambatungnajökull has been in overall retreat. Moraines dated using two different lichenometric techniques indicate that the most extensive period of glacier expansion during historical time culminated shortly before c. AD 1795, probably in the 1780s. Recession over the last 200 years has been interrupted by re-advances in the 1850s, 1870s, and c. AD 1890. In the 20`h century, most notably in the 1930s and 1940s, Lambatungnajökull receded more rapidly than at any time during the previous 150 years. However, brief cold spells (-5 yrs), centred around the years AD 1918 and AD 1964, temporarily halted glacier recession. Lambatungnajökull has only retreated slightly over the last 20 years. The degree and nature of glacier retreat since 1930 compares well with similar-sized glaciers in southern Iceland. Furthermore, the pattern of glacier fluctuations over the last 150 years reflects the temperature oscillations recorded at nearby meteorological stations. Much of the climatic variation experienced in southern Iceland, and the glacier fluctuations that result, can be explained by secular changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. A shift to more zonal atmospheric circulation and a weaker Icelandic Low - resulting in a greater frequency of negative NAO anomalies - may have been responsible for the cooling and associated glacier advances of the 18`h and 190' centuries. One implication of this work relates to the exact timing of the Little Ice Age in the Northeast Atlantic. The advanced position of glaciers during the late 18`" century suggests that this period represented the culmination of the Little Ice Age in Iceland. This contrasts with the current consensus that the Little Ice Age 'glacier maximum' in southern Iceland was during the late 19`h century. Other implications concern lichen-dating and its wider applications. Firstly, this research shows that the 'growth' curve of yellow-green Rhizocarpon lichens over the last 270 years in southeast Iceland is not linear. Although growth rates appear constant for periods of several decades, the growth 'curve' is exponential overall, with larger (older) lichens apparently growing more slowly than smaller lichens. Secondly, growth rates of Rhizocarpon Section Rhizocarpon in Iceland vary as a function of climate, with growth in the moist, maritime, southeast being c. 40% faster than in the cooler and drier northwest. Thirdly, this growth rate relationship - across the Northeast Atlantic region as a whole - can best be expressed in terms of climatic 'oceanicity' (r2 = 0.95). This latter relationship could be used to estimate lichen growth rates in areas where dating curves cannot be constructed. Finally, these findings suggest that lichen growth rates are likely to have varied in response to climatic change. In Iceland, slow-growing lichens, such as Rhizocarpon, probably grow more rapidly now - since the climatic amelioration of the 1920s and 30s - than they did in the cooler and drier periods of the 18's and 19'" centuries

The goal of this project completed for the Greater Northfield Sustainability Collaborative (GNSC) was to understand how Northfield, Minnesota citizens are experiencing climate change. Thirty individuals were interviewed to find out what they know about climate change, what actions they are taking, what they think the solutions are to the problems, and what barriers they have to more fully engaging with climate change issues. The interview results are intended to promote and advance the community's discussion on climate change via social learning and community engagement activities such as town hall forums and community surveys. These activities encourage citizens in the community to have direct input into the development of the community's climate action plan (CAP). Analysis of the interviews showed that the interviewees are witnessing climate change, that most are taking at least some action such as recycling or lowering thermostats, that they can name barriers to their own inaction, that they say communication about climate change remains confusing and is not widespread in Northfield, and that they are able to provide numerous suggestions for what the local and broader leadership should be doing. The analysis also showed wide individual variation within the group. Interviewees who were less knowledgeable about climate were less likely to be taking action and do not participate in social groups where climate change is discussed. Conclusions are that the whole group would like more and better communication and education from our leaders, that they also expect our leaders to be part of creating solutions to climate change, and that the solutions the interviewees suggested provide a very thorough initial list of mitigation and adaptation strategies for the city's future CAP.

Regulating carbon markets in order to fight the effects of climate change has in recent years become an integral part of many economies around the world. Ensuring that policymakers implement market-based climate change legislation according to international best practice is an essential part to guarantee that a carbon market system operates smoothly within a country’s economy. There are many opportunities that exist in South Africa towards developing a lucrative carbon market; however, the information to implement such a system is hard to come by and complex to analyse. This dissertation will aim to shed some light on this relatively new field of the law as it will provide an overview of international best practice within the carbon market sphere. Furthermore, this dissertation will examine the legal nature of a carbon credit; analyse international instruments regulating carbon markets and discuss existing South African policies and legislation related to climate change and carbon markets. This will lead to the ultimate objective of this dissertation: to propose a possible framework for the regulation of a South African carbon market based upon international best practice. This dissertation revealed the imperative need for South African policymakers to implement legislation to conform to international best practice within carbon markets. In this regard the dissertation also revealed that the infrastructure to regulate such a market already exists within South Africa. Only subtle changes to these infrastructure systems will be required in order for to accommodate a functioning carbon market. The study revealed that the only way to convince entities around the world to emit fewer emissions and to contribute towards the fight against climate change is to attach a monetary value to emissions. Associating a price to carbon is the only way to sanction entities that produce emissions and compensate entities that mitigate emissions. A carbon tax coupled with a carbon offset mechanism, as opposed to a emissions trading scheme, would be the best option with regards to establishing a South African carbon policy. This will ensure a fair playing field, as carbon tax liable entities would be held responsible to pay the same fixed price per ton of carbon that they emit. Coupling the carbon tax with a carbon offset mechanism, trading with carbon credits, will incentivise companies to invest in “greener” technologies and to emit fewer emissions. This dissertation revealed that international best practice in the carbon market sphere, still poses significant difficulties such as price volatility associated with carbon credits; validation and verification inconsistencies within the different carbon standards; and supply and demand fluctuations. These difficulties where highlighted in this dissertation and solutions relating to these difficulties were discussed. The time has come for South Africa to enter the carbon market sphere, whether it be through the introduction of a carbon tax or otherwise. This dissertation illustrates that the infrastructure and stakeholders associated to a South African carbon market needs to be developed. If, when and how the government will actually implement such a carbon market system, remains a question to be answered.

The focus of this study is on understanding the multiple and interacting factors that hinder or enable municipal planned climate change adaptation, here called barriers and enablers respectively, and their implications for community based adaptation. To do this I developed a conceptual framework of barriers to and enablers of planned climate change adaptation, which informed a systematic literature review of barriers to planned community based adaptation in developing countries. In this framework barriers were grouped into resource, social and physical barriers. I then conducted empirical case study analysis using qualitative research methods in four South African municipalities to understand what barriers and enablers manifested in these contexts. In light of the reflexive nature of my methodology, my framework was adjusted based on my empirical findings, where contextual barriers were found to better represent the empirical results and subsumed physical barriers. I found my framework useful for analysis, but in the empirical cases, barriers and enablers overlaid and interacted so significantly that in reality it was often difficult to separate them. A key finding was that enablers tended to be more about the way things are done, as opposed to direct opposites of barriers. Comparison of barriers and enablers across the case studies revealed a number of key themes. Municipalities struggle to implement climate change adaptation and community based adaptation within contexts of significant social, economic and ecological challenges. These contextual barriers, when combined with certain cognitive barriers, lead to reactive responses. Existing municipal systems and structures make it difficult to enable climate change adaptation, which is inherently cross‐sectoral and messy, and especially community based adaptation that is bottom‐up and participatory. Lack of locally applicable knowledge, funding and human resources were found to be significant resource barriers, and were often underlain by social barriers relating to perceptions, norms, discourses and governance challenges. Enablers of engaged officials, operating within enabling organisational environments and drawing on partnerships and networks, were able to overcome or circumvent these barriers. When these enablers coincided with windows of opportunity that increased the prioritisation of climate change within the municipality, projects with ancillary benefits were often implemented. Analysis of the barriers and enablers identified in the literature and case studies, informed discussion on whether municipalities are able to implement community based adaptation as defined in the literature, as well as the development of recommendations for how municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation can be further understood and enabled in the future. These recommendations for practice and research include: (a) To acknowledge and understand the conceptual framings of municipal climate change work, as these framings inform the climate change agenda that is pursued, and hence what municipal climate change adaptation work is done and how it was done. (b) The need for further research into the social barriers that influence the vital enablers of engaged officials, enabling organisational environments, and partnerships and networks. (c) To learn from pilot community‐level interventions that have been implemented by municipalities, as well as from other disciplines and municipalities. (d) To develop top‐down/bottom‐up approaches to enable municipal planned climate change adaptation and community based adaptation, that benefits from high level support and guidance, as well as local level flexibility and learning‐by‐doing. (e) To develop viable mechanisms for municipalities to better engage with the communities they serve.

With climate change arising as an important issue in the 21th century, many states have been working diligently to develop climate action plans with the hopes of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and stop climate change from occurring. According to scientists' theories, however, many places across the globe are already feeling the effects of a changing climate and must therefore switch their focus from mitigation to adaptation. In the United States, there has been a focus on how climate change will impact one of the most vulnerable parts of the country, the transportation infrastructure. Many countries have already begun adapting their transportation infrastructure to climate change including the United States. This thesis focuses on how states are adapting to climate change by analyzing strategies, frameworks, and reports released by these states in order to document where they stand in regards to adaptation of the transportation network. The states that are adapting their transportation infrastructure are Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Alaska, Florida, North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. There is also a brief summary of how Canada and the United Kingdom are preparing for climate change with an analysis of frameworks and strategies used to adapt their transportation infrastructure. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to provide engineers and policymakers with evidence that several states are implementing adaptation into transportation projects and provide a variety of strategies for them to use in their own state. Specifically, this report provides applications of adaptation for Georgia to use, so that they can begin the lengthy process of adapting their transportation infrastructure to climate change.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Thesis (MScAgric)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: During Holocene times a considerable deposit of barn owl pellet material accumulated in the Hot Pot Cave at De Hoop Nature Reserve on the southern coast of the Western Cape Province, South Africa. An excavation of this accumulation has yielded information on barn owl prey species over the past some two millennia. Four distinct layers were excavated and radiocarbon-dated to AD 381, AD 615, AD 991 and AD 1417. The micromammalian cranial contents of these layers were compared to material from two pellet collections that represent modem bam owl predation at De Hoop (AD 2000). Comparisons were made from three perspectives: (1) physical size measurements of certain cranial parameters, (2) micromammal community species composition and (3) community structure indices, such as the Shannon-Wiener diversity index, Simpson's diversity index and the species equitability index. By extrapolating from known ecological distribution information of the relevant prey species, these data were used to recreate the local climate at the time of the accumulation of the layers. The results were compared to other palaeoclimate models for the region as a test of validity. It was found that the lower two layers of the sequence represented mild conditions with possibly more grass than in recent times, while the upper layers represented cool weather with a possible increase in scrub. AD 381 was found to be somewhat dry and mild, AD 615 to be the wettest level and possibly milder than AD 381, AD 991 to be the coolest of all the levels and dryest of the ancient levels, AD 1417 to be somewhat cool and probably drier than AD 615, but wetter than AD 381, and AD 2000 to be the mildest and dryest of all levels, with the artificial influence of nearby agricultural activities evident.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tydens die Holoseen tydperk het 'n relatief groot hoeveelheid nonnietjie-uil bolusmateriaal versamel in Hot Pot Grot in die De Hoop Natuurreservaat aan die Wes-Kaapse suidkus, Suid- Afrika. Opgrawings van hierdie bolusversameling het waardevolle en insiggewende inligting aandie lig gebring rakende nonnetjie-uil prooi tydens ongeveer die afgelope tweeduisend jaar. Vier defnitiewe lae is opgegrawe en deur radiodatering is die lae se datums vasgestelop 381, 615, 991 en 1417 n.e. Deur gebruik te maak van kraniale kriteria. is die mikrosoogdier inhoud van die opgrawings vergelyk met dié van twee bolusversamelings wat die huidige uilprooi (2000 n.Ci) in De Hoop verteenwoordig. Die vergelykings is op drie maniere getref: (1) fisiese grootternates van sekere kraniale parameters, (2) species-samestelling van die mikrosoogdiergemeenskap en (3) gemeenskap-struktuur indekse nl. die Shannon-Wiener diversiteitsindeks, Simpson se diversiteitsindeks en die species-gelykheid indeks. Deur ekstrapolasie vanaf bekende ekologiese verspreidingsinligting rakende die betrokke species, is hierdie data gebruik om die klimaat van daardie tydperke te herskep op 'n streeksbasis en vergelyk met ander paleoklimaat-modelle om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die resultate het getoon dat die onderste (oudste) twee lae warmer toestande met moontlik meer gras verteenwoordig, terwyl die boonste twee lae koeler weer met moontlik meer bosse verteenwoordig. Daar is verder gevind dat 381 n.e. redelik droog en warm was, 615 n.e. die natste laag en moontlik warmer as 381 n.e., 991 n.e. die koudste van al die lae en droogste van die grot-lae, 1417 n.e. redelik koel en moontlik droëer as 615 n.e., maar natter as 381 n.e., en 2000 n.C. die warmste en droogste van al die lae, met kunsmatige invloed van nabygeleë landbou aktiwiteite.

The main aim of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of climate change and climatic variability on agriculture in Northeast (NE) Thailand. Climate change is a slow and complex phenomenon. Therefore, decision-making in climate change context involves long-time scales and that have led uncertainties associated with many risks. To assess the impact of climate change in agriculture as well as supporting long-term adaptation planning, long-term climate change scenarios are required. This study achieved this requirement by developing long-term climate change scenarios for NE Thailand under the SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s based upon data from the SEA START RC. One of the more significant findings to emerge from this study is that the assessment of climate change impacts on NE Thailand agriculture through a careful consideration of spatial issues in the Ricardian framework that this study has undertaken would be useful in providing a more accurate picture of the potential impacts of climate change on farmer income in NE Thailand. By the end of the 21st century (2080s), NE Thailand farmers of 62 sub-districts in 8 provinces are expected to experience the severe impact of climate change. A full implementation of the key planned adaptation, the IWRM, would therefore be required to alleviate the risk to climate change in NE Thailand agricultural sector.

Paleonviromental and paleoceanographic reconstructions of the repercussions related to the middle eocene climatic optimum global warming event. The study has been focused on two mid-latitude locations (Alano section, NE Italy) and ODP Site 1263 (SE Atlantic) using micropaleontological (benthic foraminifera) and geochemical proxies.
Ricostruzione delle ripercussioni paleoambientali e paleoceanografiche legate all'evento di riscaldamento climatico globale chiamato middle eocene climatic optimum. Lo studio è stato focalizzato su due aree site alle medie latitudini (sezione di Alano, NE Italy) e il Site ODP 1263 (SE Atlantic) ed eseguito mediante analisi micropaleontologiche (foraminiferi bentonici) e geochimiche.

A high temporal resolution pollen diagram from a lake in the middle-Arctic region of the Boothia Peninsula, Nunavut, Canada, documents the history of the regional vegetation and climate for the past 7200 years. A diatom sequence had been previously prepared from this core. Major tundra pollen taxa in the core include Cyperaceae and Salix, with Cyperaceae comprising over 50% of the pollen in the early and late Holocene. Tree pollen, transported from far to the south, comprised a large percentage of the pollen sum, with Pinus accounting for 30% of the pollen in some levels of the core. Pollen percentages and concentrations of taxa typical of the middle-Arctic were highest in the mid-Holocene, corresponding to warm conditions. Decreasing pollen concentrations indicate cooling temperatures, with more rapid decreases occurring around 4200, 3800-3400, and 2500 cal yr BP. Pollen percentages of Salix, Cyperaceae, and Artemisia increased in the past 35 years in response to global warming. Reconstructions of July temperature using the modern analog technique showed the mid-Holocene (5800-2800 cal yr BP) was approximately 1°C higher than during the past 1000 years.

Transportation Asset Management (TAM) systems are in use at many transportation agencies both in the United States and around the world. These asset management systems serve as strategic resource allocation frameworks and their degree of implementation and maturity varies. Climatic change, with its potentially adverse impacts on both the built and natural environments, has become of increasing concern around the globe. Given the uncertainties associated with changing climatic conditions, transportation agency stakeholders utilize risk-based decision-making approaches to identify climate change impacts that pose the greatest risk to transportation infrastructure assets. In conjunction with criticality assessments, emerging conceptual frameworks seek to identify higher-risk infrastructure assets, which are both critical to system operations and vulnerable to potential climate change impacts, through standalone study efforts. This research develops a risk-oriented decision-making framework to identify vulnerable, higher-risk transportation infrastructure assets within the context of existing transportation asset management systems. The framework assesses the relative maturity of an agency’s transportation asset management system and provides guidance as to how an agency’s existing tools and processes can be used to incorporate climate change considerations. This risk-based decision-making framework is applied to three case studies: one at the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, another at the Metropolitan Planning Commission in Savannah – Chatham County, and a statewide case study at the Georgia Department of Transportation. The results of this research demonstrate that readily-available climate projection data can be analyzed and displayed geospatially so that the potential impacts of climatic change on transportation infrastructure can be determined for specific geographic regions. In addition, existing roadway and bridge infrastructure datasets can also be displayed geospatially. The framework uses geospatially-referenced roadway and bridge asset data and multi-criteria decision analysis procedures to develop and visually display criticality scores. Overlaying climate projection data and criticality data helps identify higher-risk transportation infrastructure assets. This research demonstrates that climate change considerations can be effectively incorporated in existing decision-making processes at various levels of maturity of formal TAM systems, making this more broadly accessible to agencies and communities with potential climate hazards.

Thesis (M. S.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005.
Dr. Judith A. Curry, Committee Chair ; Dr. Robert Dickinson, Committee Member ; Dr. Peter Webster, Committee Member. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (DPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is informed by both the deficit/positivist and contextual/critical models for doing public understanding of science (PUS) research and seeks to investigate factors that influence the perceptions, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change in Malawi. Previous research on the public understanding of climate change conducted in the United States of America (USA) and Europe suggest that people‘s beliefs, perceptions and attitudes do influence support for both voluntary and policy initiatives to address climate change and adaption to it. However, it is equally important to understand the factors that influence public perceptions, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change. An investigation into these factors provides an understanding and appreciation of the contextual issues related to the public assimilation and renegotiation of climate change information, as well as the support or rejection of initiatives aimed at addressing climate change. Sub-Saharan African countries are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change because their national economies and populations depend on rain-fed agriculture. Malawi is no exception. The majority of the Malawian population (at least 85%) live in rural areas and depend on subsistence, rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood, and are therefore more vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, Malawi‘s economy is agro-based (agriculture comprises about 36% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 85% of exports earnings and 84% of total employment). On the basis of these facts, I hypothesised that the perceptions, beliefs and attitudes of Malawians towards climate change are influenced by a wide range of factors, including the impact of climate change on livelihoods. More specifically, I proposed that more rural inhabitants than urban residents were likely to agree that their livelihood has been negatively affected by climate change, and would also be more willing to take voluntary action to address climate change. Upon performing chi-square analyses of the responses, the results indicate that: (i) significantly more rural (91%) than urban inhabitants (51%) agree that their livelihood has been negatively affected by climate change, and (ii) significant higher proportions of the rural population have at some point taken voluntary action to address climate change Multinomial logistic regression models predicted the perceptions, beliefs and attitudes of Malawians towards climate change. The results show that location is the only predictor of whether an individual would agree that his/her livelihood has been negatively affected by climate change or not. Rural inhabitants are 6.5 times more likely than urban residents to agree that their livelihood has been negatively affected by climate change. Location is also a predictor of the belief that climate change and its impact is the will of God; the belief that the solution to climate change rests with God; and how certain or uncertain a person is regarding the effects of climate change. Binary logistic regression results show that location is also the strongest predictor of whether an individual would take a voluntary action to address climate change or not. Rural inhabitants are 2.3 times more likely than urban residents to take voluntary action to address climate change. Besides place of residence, other predictors of perceptions, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change are: level of education (predictor of three outcome variables, namely: how certain or uncertain a person is about the causes of climate change; whether an individual believes that climate change and its impact is the will of God or not; and whether an individual believes that the solution to the problem of climate change rests with God or not); environmental groups and institutions of learning as sources of information about climate change (predictors of how certain or uncertain a person is about the causes of climate change, and whether a person believes that climate change and its impact is the will of God or not, respectively); and the trustworthiness of village headmen as a source of information about climate change (predictor of whether an individual will believe that climate change and its impact is the will of God or not; and whether an individual will take personal initiative to address climate change). These findings affirm the hypothesis that the impact of climate change on livelihoods of Malawians living in rural locations influences their perceptions, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change. Additionally, the findings suggest that public education about climate change remains key to promoting understanding of climate change. The Government of Malawi and non-governmental organisations have to take up this challenge of educating the Malawian public about climate change, particularly those living in rural locations. However, public education of climate change in Malawi demands that we also take into account the contextual factors that influence Malawians‘ perceptions, beliefs and attitudes towards climate change. For future research, the study suggests that more research in Sub-Saharan Africa is warranted to unearth the contextual factors that influence the public understanding of climate change.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie inkorporeer insigte uit onderskeidelik die tekortskietende/positiwistiese en kontekstuele/kritiese modelle rakende die openbare verstaan van wetenskapsnavorsing, in ‘n poging om die faktore wat die persepsies, oortuigings en houdings teenoor klimaatsverandering in Malawi beïnvloed te ondersoek. Vorige navorsing oor die openbare begrip van klimaatsverandering – wat in die Verenigde State van Amerika (VSA) en Europa uitgevoer is – dui daarop dat individuele persepsies, oortuigings en houdings ‘n invloed uitoefen op die ondersteuning vir beide vrywillige sowel as beleidsinisiatiewe in klimaatsverandering. Dit is egter van groot belang om die faktore wat openbare persepsies, oortuigings en houdings teenoor klimaatsverandering beïnvloed te verstaan. ʼn Ondersoek na hierdie faktore verskaf begrip sowel as waardering vir die kontekstuele kwessies wat verband hou met die openbare assimilasie en ―heronderhandeling‖ van inligting oor klimaatsverandering. So ‘n ondersoek dra ook by tot ‘n verduideliking waarom voorgestelde klimaatsveranderingsinisiatiewe òf verwerp òf ondersteun word. Lande in sub-Sahara Afrika, waaronder Malawi, is baie kwesbaar vir die gevolge van klimaatsverandering as gevolg van die aard van hul ekonomieë en die samelewing se afhanklikheid van nie-besproeiingslandbou. Die Malawiese bevolking is grotendeels landelik (ten minste 85%) en maak staat op nie-besproeiingsbestaansboerdery, wat hulle dus meer kwesbaar maak vir die gevolge van klimaatsverandering. Malawi se ekonomie is boonop landbou-gedrewe: landbou dra by tot ongeveer 36% van die BBP, tot 85% van inkomste uit uitvoere en tot 84% van totale indiensnemingsgetalle. Gegewe hierdie feite is my hipotese dat die persepsies, oortuigings en houdings van Malawiërs teenoor klimaatsverandering deur talle uiteenlopende faktore beïnvloed word, waaronder die impak van klimaatsverandering op hul daaglikse bestaan. Die hipotese suggereer verder dat meer landelike inwoners, in teenstelling tot stedelike inwoners, geneig sal wees om saam te stem dat hul bestaan negatief deur klimaatsverandering beïnvloed word, en derhalwe ook ‘n groter gewilligheid sal openbaar tot vrywillige optrede wat klimaatsverandering aanspreek. Chi-kwadraat analises wat op die opnameresponse uitgevoer is, dui daarop dat (i) meer landelike (91%) as stedelike (51%) inwoners saamstem dat hul bestaan negatief deur klimaatsverandering beïnvloed word en dat (ii) ʼn beduidende hoër persentasie landelike inwoners op een of ander stadium vrywillig teen klimaatsverandering opgetree het. Multinomiale logistiese-regressiemodelle is gebruik om die persepsies, oortuigings en houdings van Malawiërs teenoor klimaatsverandering te voorspel. Die resultate toon dat ligging die enigste betekenisvolle voorspeller is in die uitkoms of ʼn individu saamstem dat sy/haar bestaan negatief deur klimaatsverandering beïnvloed word of nie – dit is 6.5 keer meer waarskynlik dat landelike as stedelike inwoners sal saamstem dat hul bestaan negatief deur klimaatsverandering beïnvloed word. Ligging dien ook as ʼn betekenisvolle voorspeller in drie verdere uitkomste, naamlik die oortuiging dat klimaatsverandering en die impak daarvan die wil van God is, die oortuiging dat die oplossing vir klimaatsverandering by God berus en hoe seker of onseker ʼn individu van sy/haar oortuiging is met betrekking tot die gevolge van klimaatsverandering. Volgens ‘n binêre logistiese-regressieanalise is ligging ook die sterkste voorspeller of ʼn individu vrywillig sal optree om klimaatsverandering aan te spreek, al dan nie. Dit is 2.3 keer meer waarskynlik dat landelike inwoners, in teenstelling met stedelike inwoners, vrywillig sal optree om klimaatsverandering aan te spreek. Agesien van ligging het die volgende ook na vore getree as bykomende voorspellers van individue se persepsies, oortuigings en houdings teenoor klimaatsverandering: (i) vlak van opvoeding (voorspeller van drie uitkomste-veranderlikes: hoe seker of onseker ʼn persoon is oor die oorsake van klimaatsverandering; of ʼn persoon glo dat klimaatsverandering en die gevolglike impak die wil van God is al dan nie; en of ʼn individu glo dat die oplossing vir klimaatsverandering by God berus al dan nie), (ii) die twee bronne van inligting rondom klimaatsverandering, naamlik omgewingsgroepe en opvoedingsinstellings, wat dien as voorspellers van hoe seker of onseker ʼn individu is oor die oorsake van klimaatsverandering, en of ʼn persoon glo dat klimaatsverandering en die gevolglike impak die wil van God is of nie; en (iii) die geloofwaardigheid van stamhoofde as ʼn bron van inligting oor klimaatsverandering (voorspeller van of ʼn persoon sal glo dat klimaatsverandering en die gevolglike impak die wil van God is of nie en of ʼn individu persoonlike inisiatief aan die dag sal lê om klimaatsverandering aan te spreek). Die bevindinge van die studie bevestig die voorgestelde hipotese dat die impak van klimaatsverandering op die bestaan van Malawiërs wat in landelike gebiede woon, ook hul persepsies, oortuigings en houdings teenoor klimaatsverandering beïnvloed. ʼn Verdere bevinding is dat openbare opvoeding oor klimaatsverandering ʼn sleutelrol in die bevordering van die begrip oor klimaatsverandering speel. Die uitdaging rus op die skouers van die Malawiese regering en nie-regeringsorganisasies om die Malawiese publiek, en veral diegene wat in landelike gebiede woon, oor klimaatsverandering op te voed. Die voorgestelde organisasies sal hulself egter nie van hul taak kan kwyt indien daar nie ʼn begrip is van die faktore wat Malawiërs se persepsies, oortuigings en houdings teenoor klimaatsverandering beïnvloed nie. Die studie beveel aan dat meer navorsing in sub-Sahara Afrika onderneem behoort te word om kontekstuele faktore wat die openbare begrip van klimaatsverandering beïnvloed, te identifiseer.

Critical infrastructure is a term used by governments to describe assets that are essential for the functioning of a modern society and its economy. Most commonly associated with this term are facilities for water supply, oil and gas distribution, power grids, telecommunications, transportation, financial services (banking and finance), and security services (military, police, etc.). Scholarly risk research on critical infrastructures has been motivated by fear of attack since September, 2001. Although, it may seem reasonable that protection from attack would include climate change impact, this has not been the case. Therefore, a research gap on climate change impact risk assessment on critical infrastructures, and their interdependencies , exists. This study attempts to fulfil two purposes in this regard: 1) the assessment of climate change impact risk; and 2) the propagation of the risk due to interdependency. Although, climate change impact is the primary interest in this study, the impact coverag could be extended to include other impacts, either natural and/or man-made, which have drawn worldwide economic concern. Since infrastructures are connected, it is insufficient to assess impact on one without considering the consequences on the dependent others. This problem of determining the impact cascading from one critical infrastructure to another , as well as throughout an entire economy, with detrimental consequences, has attained equal impetus. For example, the recent global financial crisis has exacerbated concerns about risk due to interdependency. Thus, the drive into interdependency analysis is imperative when assessing the impact risk from one location, and the subsequent ripple impacts among the interconnected infrastructures.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Engineering
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text

Climate change continues to present a major challenge to food security around the world. The potential impact of climate change of rural livelihoods is especially significant as rural communities often rely heavily on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods and, hence, food security. This is applicable to the rural town of Hamburg, on the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa. The Sustainable Rural Livelihoods framework analyses livelihoods in terms of the context, available capitals and institutional framework that determines the livelihood strategies and outcomes for rural households. In terms of livelihood outcomes for Hamburg, it was found that the households have a heavy reliance on state grants in their livelihood portfolios. Natural resources, in the form of agriculture and harvesting of marine organisms, played only a supplementary role in livelihood strategies. Thus, given that climate change would impact negatively on the estuarine resources and the impact on agriculture is unknown as the climate becomes wetter and hotter, the impact on livelihoods and food security would not be significant. However, the sustainability of current livelihood strategies is questionable as grants, by their very nature, or unsustainable and therefore can result in vulnerability and food insecurity in the long-run for households. It is recommended that grants should be issued within the community, instead of in the distant town of Peddie, to help develop the local economy and reduce leakages. This would allow for diversification of livelihood strategies in Hamburg. In addition, government support through extension officers should be extended to Hamburg to assist in developing the local agriculture sector

The principal aim of the thesis is to determine the Late Quaternary glacial history of the South Patagonian Icefield at Torres del Paine (51°S, 73°W), Chile. The secondary aim is to compare this glacial history with palaeoclimatic records from elsewhere to test the theory that climate change over the last glacial-interglacial cycle was synchronous between the two polar hemispheres. Synchronous climate change cannot be explained as an atmospheric response to insolation changes unless fundamental ocean-atmosphere reorganisations occurred (Broecker and Denton, 1990). Empirical glacial-geologic data from southern South America is therefore used to test recent models of global climate change. The global pattern of climate change over the last glacial-interglacial cycle is assessed by reviewing proxy palaeoclimate records including isotope records from polar ice cores and deep sea sediment cores, and glacial geologic records from the southern Andes. Conclusions from this review form the basis for hypotheses about what 'should' have happened at Torres del Paine. To test these hypotheses glacial geologic investigations were undertaken on site. Geomorphological evidence is used to define eight icesheet, deglaciation and valley glacier stages; ice extended ca.50km east of the modern South Patagonian Icefield margin during the last glaciation. Basal dates from peat bogs provide dating control for some glacial stages. Pumice fragments associated with glacial deposits were derived from an eruption of Volcan Reclus ca.12,000 yr BP and therefore constrain the Lateglacial depositional sequence. Models of the glacial history are constructed. Evidence that climate change at Torres del Paine was synchronous with other sites is equivocal. However, significant results are: (a) evidence of a Late-Lateglacial ('Younger Dryas') advance - the first such site in Patagonia; (b) evidence that deglaciation occurred slowly; and (c) evidence that the greatest extent of ice did not necessarily coincide with the coldest part of the last glaciation.

An initial study of the palaeoclimate signal contained within speleothem growth was undertaken by' investigating regional variations in speleothem Qrowth frequency. It was demonstrated that about 500 analyses in such a regional compilation were necessary to generate a statistically significant curve which did not suffer from sample bias. However, few such regions are likely to have such a larQe data set. That from north west Europe did provide a useful palaeoclimate record, giving evidence of multiple interstadial events within isotope stage 3, and a significantly low level of growth within stage Sa. An investigation was undertaken into the palaeoclimate signal contained in variations of speleothem growth rate, based on the theory derived by Dreybrodt (1981) and Buhmann and Dreybrodt (1985) from calcite precipitation kinetics. It was demonstrated that growth rate increases with increasing calcium ion concentration, temperature and water flux (drip rate for stalagmites, water film thickness for flowstones and seasonal variations in water availability for both speleothems); turbulent flow conditions and cave air pC02, which theoretically affect growth rate, were demonstrated to be Insi9nificant. If water flux, calcium concentration and temperature all increase with improving Climate, growth rate increases may reflect climatic improvement. In particular, it was demonstrated that stalagmites should be most sensitive to changes in calcium concentrations, temperature, and seasonal shut-off of the water feed, whilst flowstones would also be sensitive to changes in water film thickness. Theoretical growth rates were tested for recently forming speleothems in excavated caves and mines. For these, minimum growth rates were determined by knowing the date of excavation of the cave or mine, and the growth rate determining variables were measured over the course of a year. It was demonstrated that the theory accurately predicted growth rates for both stalagmites and flowstones within the 20' errors based on variations in calcium ion concentration and water film thickness. However, flowstones generally grew slower than that predicted by the theory, due to the seasonal shut-off of the water supply feeding these samples. For flowstones at Kent's Cavem, growth rate was observed to Increase with Increasing water availability, for stalagmites at Lower Cave, growth rate was shown to increase with increaSing drip rate. Assuming a good prediction of growth rate by the theory, applications to Quatemary speleothems were undertaken to determine past calcium ion concentration, temperature and water flux. Growth rates were determined by thermal ionisation mass spectrometric uraniumseries dating. The growth rate of one Holocene sample from Sutherland demonstrated that variations in growth rate over the last 7 ka did not depend on temperature variations, but either to changes in calcium concentrations due to vegetation change or a non-linear response to changes in water flow. Growth rates were also determined for two flowstones from Yorkshire which had grown over the last 200 ka. However, the very fast growth rates in these samples prevented a precise record from being obtained. Mass spectrometric dating also provided a record of the timing of growth commencement and cessation. This was shown to be more complex than previously considered; in particular the Holocene growth of the Sutherland stalagmite commenced 5 ka after glacier retreat in the region, the Yorkshire flowstone from Lancaster Hole had seven growth phases, each for only 1-3 ka, five of which correlated with solar insolation maxima. In contrast, another flowstone from Stump' Cross in Yorkshire was shown to grow in both interglacial, interstadial and glacial periods of the last 200 ka. An investigation was made into the use of 13C/1'C,(t>nM to determine the type of plant community at the time of speleothem formation, and whether a non-biogenic source of CO2 was present. 13C analyses of the Stump Cross flowstone gave elevated 13C not explicable by the plant communities present, nor were high enough to have a non-biogenic source. Further investigations are needed, but this evidence suggests caution in interpreting 13C records for flowstones. An annual signal of growth rate and growth rate variability was obtained from ultra-violet microscopic analysiS of luminescent banding within speleothems. Banding was demonstrated to be annual by mass spectrometric uranium-series dating, but was only preserved In 10% of a" samples. Variability of growth rate for the Holocene Sutherland stalagmite was compared to the theoretical annual variability of growth rate derived from annual variations in the growth rate determining variables observed today, and a good agreement was observed. Furthermore, for one period of growth, a 4-5 year period of rapid growth rate was demonstrated to correlate with the Hekla 3volcanic eruption in Iceland.

Bibliography: p. 155-175.
Palynological analysis of organic sediments from a freshwater lake near Port Elizabeth (34°S,25°30'E) has provided a high- resolution vegetation history of the area for the last 2200 years. Detailed identification and counting of the fossil pollen resulted in the generation of a pollen diagram. Changing frequencies in fossil pollen over time are represented, and inferences are made regarding environmental conditions which influenced the vegetation. A detailed narrative of vegetation history in response to environmental change is presented, and this is compared to results from related studies. The significance of the Lake Farm study site has been noted in terms of its location as a 'zone of convergence' for a variety of vegetation types. Results of fossil pollen analysis indicate that environmental conditions prior to 1 500BP were drier than at present. Forest and fynbos vegetation were not well-represented in the pollen spectrum at this time, and it is suggested that they were not favoured by these conditions. Environmental conditions ameliorated after 1500BP, becoming more mesic, which favoured the proliferation of both forest and fynbos vegetation types. At present xeric and grassland elements are declining, while shrubs increase, indicating an enhanced human-induced disturbance regime. It is suggested that the partial decline in forest elements at present 1s most likely attributable to human-induced disturbance of the environment. The introduction of exotic trees has been noted (approx. 280BP) and is seen to have coincided with the influx of european settlers to the region. Principal Components Analysis has revealed that the vegetation distribution in the area has been most heavily influenced by human activity and moisture availability. The necessarily subjective interpretation of the statistical results, however, casts some doubt on the validity of the conclusions drawn. The validity of the conclusions drawn from this study becomes apparent not only in terms of what is learned about the history of forests, but also the form any future management should take.

Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2004.
Thesis research directed by: Public Affairs. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

This study describes the effects of climate change on food security in agricultural dependent country,Pakistan. Based on secondary sources of data, the study found out the evidences of climate change and itssevere implications on already inadequate and depleted natural resources of the country. The major effectsof climate change are in terms of rise in temperature, variations in precipitation pattern, increasing glaciermelt,and increasing evaporation and increased irrigation water requirements. In addition, the report focuseson Pakistan’s irrigation structure and existent capacity, irrigation water crisis, trans-boundary waterconflicts (internal and external), food shortage and high inflation rate in food components. This shortage offood is mainly because of low-cropped productivity due to irrigation water crisis. Although the country hasworld’s largest integrated irrigation system, however, the water scarcity has made minds of farmers to shiftcultivation from water intensive crops like rice, wheat, cotton and sugarcane to low water required cropsand vegetables putting pressure on food market. Moreover, the crops yield is also less due to strongevaporation and the severity of temperature during long summer season. The constantly rising temperaturefor over last forty years coupled with variations in rainfall pattern often results into uneven surface wateravailability throughout cropping seasons. Further, extraordinary rise in temperature in mountainous regionof Pakistan, causes extra melting of glaciers along with uneven annual precipitation which frequentlyresults into flash floods with millions of people dislocated and loss of billions of worth in food, standingcrops and infrastructure. Pakistan’s population is increasing with over two percent growth rate; therefore,the chief staple foods like wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane, and vegetables have become out of reach of poorpeople and have severe contingent social and economic implications in terms of further enhancing thevulnerability of poor marginalized segments of society.

xiv, 143 p.
The amplified effects of climate change in the Arctic are well known and, according to many commentators, endanger Inuit cultural integrity. However, the specific connections between climate change and cultural change are understudied. This thesis explores the relationship between climatic shifts and culture in the Inuit community of Salluit, Quebec, Canada. Although residents of Salluit are acutely aware of climate change in their region and have developed causal explanations for the phenomenon, most Salluit residents do not characterize climate change as a threat to Inuit culture. Instead, they highlight the damaging impacts of globalization and internal colonialism as a more serious problem. This counter-narrative suggests that focusing narrowly on climate change can obscure the broader and more immediate challenges facing Inuit communities. Such a realization demonstrates the need for researchers to locate climate change within a matrix of non-climatic challenges in order to mitigate threats to indigenous cultures.
Committee in charge: Susan W. Hardwick, Chairperson; Alexander B. Murphy, Chairperson; Michael Hibbard, Member

Magister Artium - MA
Wetlands provide various ecosystem services such as provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services which may be directly or indirectly beneficial to humans. The manner in which such wetlands are managed is partly determined by human perceptions of their value. However, climatic variability and climate change put the continued provision of such ecosystems under stress. The result is that certain ecosystem services may be provided to differing extents during anomalously wet or dry years. There is thus uncertainty as to the values ascribed to wetlands by people during varying climatic phases. This thesis focuses on understanding how people perceive the functioning of wetlands within our current climate against a background of climatic variability and climate change. This study explores people’s perceptions regarding the functioning of wetlands and ecosystem services provided during dry and wet years, as an indication of how climatic variability and climate change impact peoples’ perceptions. The data was collected in the wetlands of the Agulhas Plain in the Nuwejaars Catchment. Five wetlands classified and scored using the WETEcoServices tool. In addition, five semi-structured interviews and three participatory mapping exercises with landowners were also undertaken. The study reports on the landowners’ awareness of wetland ecosystems, ecosystem services and climatic variability and climate change. Provisioning, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services are frequently used by landowners, which can be impacted by climatic variability and climate change. The WETEcoService benefits and landowners perceptions of ecosystem services varies, as the WETEcoService direct and indirect ecosystem services are either effective or ineffective in dry and wet years. In contrast to landowners perceptions emphasising the importance of ecosystem services directly beneficial to them. The study recommends that the ecosystem services landowners perceive as important is linked to their interest to guarantee their participation in catchment management. WET-EcoService benefits can inform landowners and managers about ecosystem services degradation and whether their conservation methods are either positively or negatively impacting wetlands.

Global climatic processes which control the interannual variability of summer rainfall over South Africa are studied. Monthly and seasonal rainfall variations are analysed with respect to fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and tropospheric winds. OLR is used as a proxy for convective intensity and for the identification of areas of sympathy and opposition to convection over South Africa. Wind data (and derived parameters) are employed to explore large- scale tropical dynamical structures. Plausible explanations are offered for the observed associations. A change in sign of the correlation structure from the October/November rainfall regime to the December through March regime is indicative of a shift from downstream advective processes (Atlantic side) to a teleconnection-type of behaviour (Indian Ocean side). Rainfall variations during the late summer months show significant (and negative) links with SST fluctuations within the equatorial/tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean areas and are consistent with results obtained in analyses with respect to OLR fluctuations. December OLR in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean is associated with a large portion of the variance in late summer rainfall, and points to a possible relation with the evolution of the Indian monsoon. The positive association implies that reduced cloudiness off the eastern coast of equatorial Africa in the spring precedes above normal mid- and late- summer rainfall over South Africa. Vertical mass overturnings are investigated through the velocity potential and derived parameters (the Zonal Circulation and Meridional Circulation Indices). The results suggest that the vertical tropospheric cells are among the important associated components which modulate climate across southern Africa, and that broad scale flows have an impact upon regional circulation cells. Evaluation of the vertical circulations with respect to wet and dry composites reveals that the Walker-type cell which connects a branch over the Indian Ocean gradually forms after November and reaches peak development in February. A slight increase of SST in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean (CEI) modifies the Walker cell anomaly leading to below normal summer rainfall over South Africa. Additional thermodynamic inputs in the CEI region are conducive to deeper convection, hence elevated outflow signatures are observed in the velocity potential and related fields. It is conjectured that the teleconnections between South Africa, the CEI and the remote Pacific Ocean regulate the depth of moisture influx and convergence over South Africa. Based on the results of this study, it is believed that empirical models could be designed for long-range prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over the central interior of South Africa.