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Journal articles on the topic 'Climatic change modelling'
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1
Hall, D. O., F. Veroustraete, R. J. M. Ceulemans, I. I. P. Impens, and J. B. H. H. Van Rensbergen. "Vegetation, Modelling and Climatic Change Effects." Journal of Ecology 85, no. 1 (February 1997): 107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2960639.
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Couture, Nicole J., and Wayne H. Pollard. "Modelling geomorphic response to climatic change." Climatic Change 85, no. 3-4 (October 10, 2007): 407–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9309-5.
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John, Andrew, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Michael Stewardson, and J. Angus Webb. "How to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 2 (March 23, 2020): 327–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.263.
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Abstract Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater ecosystems. These approaches offer a promising way of incorporating climatic uncertainty and balancing competing environmental objectives, but some practical challenges remain in their adoption for modelling environmental water outcomes under climate change.
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Simonovic, Slobodan P., and Evan G. R. Davies. "Are we modelling impacts of climatic change properly?" Hydrological Processes 20, no. 2 (2006): 431–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6106.
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Heikkinen, Risto K., Miska Luoto, Miguel B. Araújo, Raimo Virkkala, Wilfried Thuiller, and Martin T. Sykes. "Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 30, no. 6 (December 2006): 751–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133306071957.
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Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.
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Dutra Silva, Lara, Eduardo Brito de Azevedo, Francisco Vieira Reis, Rui Bento Elias, and Luís Silva. "Limitations of Species Distribution Models Based on Available Climate Change Data: A Case Study in the Azorean Forest." Forests 10, no. 7 (July 10, 2019): 575. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10070575.
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Climate change is gaining attention as a major threat to biodiversity. It is expected to further expand the risk of plant invasion through ecosystem disturbance. Particularly, island ecosystems are under pressure, and climate change may threaten forest-dependent species. However, scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how climate change and biological invasions will affect species interactions and ecosystem processes. The purpose of this study was to identify possible limitations when making species distribution model projections based on predicted climate change. We aimed to know if climatic variables alone were good predictors of habitat suitability, ensuring reliable projections. In particular, we compared the performance of generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and a selection of machine learning techniques (BIOMOD 2) when modelling the distribution of forest species in the Azores, according to the climatic changes predicted to 2100. Some limitations seem to exist when modelling the effect of climate change on species distributions, since the best models also included topographic variables, making modelling based on climate alone less reliable, with model fit varying among modelling approaches, and random forest often providing the best results. Our results emphasize the adoption of a careful study design and algorithm selection process. The uncertainties associated with climate change effect on plant communities as a whole, including their indigenous and invasive components, highlight a pressing need for integrated modelling, monitoring, and experimental work to better realize the consequences of climate change, in order to ensure the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing world.
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Vlčková, Veronika, Antonín Buček, Ivo Machar, Tomáš Daněk, Vilém Pechanec, Jan Brus, and Helena Kilianová. "The Application of Geobiocoenological Landscape Typology in The Modelling of Climate Change Implications." Journal of Landscape Ecology 8, no. 2 (November 1, 2015): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jlecol-2015-0010.
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Abstract Geobiocoenological landscape typology, which is used in landscape planning in the Czech Republic, includes vegetation zonation of the landscape. Vegetation zones are determined by climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions will probably be manifested in the shift of vegetation zones in the landscape. Mathematical geobiocoenological model of vegetation zonation of the landscape is based on the general ecological relationship between the current vegetation zonation and present climatic conditions and the assumption that this general relationship will be maintained in the future. The paper presents the application of the model using the example of the prediction of changes in climatic conditions for the Norway spruce (the first-generation of the model) and grapevine (the second-generation of the model) in the Czech Republic. In the case of the Norway spruce example, the model shows that the predicted changes in climatic conditions will prevent the cultivation of the spruce in the Czech Republic outside its natural range in mountainous areas. The results of the presented model for grapevine show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area.These examples demonstrate the potential for the application of geobiocoenological landscape typology in the modeling of the effects of climate change in the landscape.
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Felicísimo, Ángel M., Ignacio Armendáriz, and Virginia Alberdi Nieves. "Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain." Horticultural Science 48, No. 1 (March 31, 2021): 38–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/85/2019-hortsci.
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Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry.
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O'Brien, Karen L. "Tropical deforestation and climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 20, no. 3 (September 1996): 311–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339602000304.
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This article reviews the physical links between tropical rain forests and the atmos phere, and considers the results of studies which address the climatic impacts of deforestation. Tropical deforestation is widely believed to influence local, regional and possibly global cli mates. Although the relationship between deforestation and climate change is complex, there is a growing consensus that deforestation leads to warmer, drier climates. The consensus is based on experimental studies at the microscale and modelling studies at the global scale, sup plemented by a small number of observational studies at the local and regional scale. However, none of the local and regional studies examine both deforestation and climate change in a rigorous manner, or consider the results in the context of synoptic-scale phenomena. Conse quently, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the local and regional impacts of deforestation on the climate.
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Seiller, G., and F. Anctil. "Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 6 (June 3, 2014): 2033–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2033-2014.
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Abstract. Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficult task pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modelling steps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertainty as well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several members from the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimatic modelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspiration formulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and seven snowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadian sub-catchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to the natural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by five climatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current and projected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs and hydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climate variability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potential evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selected snowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. The analysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the current climate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertainty is propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified by climatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting for several climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related to the climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modelling tools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources.
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Waterson, Amy M., Daniela N. Schmidt, Paul J. Valdes, Patricia A. Holroyd, David B. Nicholson, Alexander Farnsworth, and Paul M. Barrett. "Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1839 (September 28, 2016): 20161408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.1408.
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Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation.
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Wardlaw, R. B., M. Hulme, and A. Y. Stuck. "Modelling the Impacts of Climatic Change on Water Resources." Water and Environment Journal 10, no. 5 (October 1996): 355–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.1996.tb00064.x.
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Patidar, Sandhya, Eleanor Tanner, Bankaru-Swamy Soundharajan, and Bhaskar SenGupta. "Associating Climatic Trends with Stochastic Modelling of Flow Sequences." Geosciences 11, no. 6 (June 13, 2021): 255. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11060255.
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Water is essential to all lifeforms including various ecological, geological, hydrological, and climatic processes/activities. With the changing climate, associated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events appear to stimulate highly uncertain patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (EV) processes across the globe. Changes in P and EV patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model’s efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change.
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Kogo, Benjamin Kipkemboi, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech, and Champika S. Kariyawasam. "Modelling Climate Suitability for Rainfed Maize Cultivation in Kenya Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Approach." Agronomy 9, no. 11 (November 8, 2019): 727. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9110727.
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Climate change and variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. In many developing countries, such as Kenya, information on the mean changes in climate is limited. Therefore, in this study, we model the current and future changes in areas suitable for rainfed maize production in the country using a maximum entropy (MaxENT) model. Maize is by far a major staple food crop in Kenya. We used maize occurrence location data and bioclimatic variables for two climatic scenarios-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 from two general circulation models (HadGEM2-ES and CCSM4) for 2070. The study identified the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter as the major variables that affect the distribution of maize. Simulation results indicate an average increase of unsuitable areas of between 1.9–3.9% and a decrease of moderately suitable areas of 14.6–17.5%. The change in the suitable areas is an increase of between 17–20% and in highly suitable areas of 9.6% under the climatic scenarios. The findings of this study are of utmost importance to the country as they present an opportunity for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies required to sustain maize production under future climates.
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Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J., C. Liu, and P. Battilani. "Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination." World Mycotoxin Journal 9, no. 5 (November 2, 2016): 717–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/wmj2016.2066.
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Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their own characteristics and requirements. The geographic distribution of toxigenic fungi reflects their ecological needs, with thermophilic fungi prevalent at lower latitudes and psychrophiles at the higher latitudes. A resulting gradient of mycotoxin contamination has been repeatedly stressed. Changes in climatic conditions will lead to shifts in the fungal population and the mycotoxin patterns. In general, climate change is expected to increase mycotoxin contamination of crops, but due to the complexity of mycoflora associated to each crop and its interaction with the environment, it appears rash to draw conclusions without specific studies. Very recently first quantitative estimations of impacts of climate change on mycotoxin occurrence have been made. Two studies each applied models of different disciplines including climate projection, crop phenology and fungal/mycotoxin prediction to cereals cultivated in Europe. They were followed by a case study on climate change effects on Alternaria moulds and their mycotoxins in tomato. Results showed that DON contamination of wheat grown in Europe was, in general, expected to increase. However, variation was large, and in some years and some regions a decrease in DON contamination was expected. Regarding aflatoxin contamination of maize grown in Europe, an increase was estimated, mainly in the +2 °C scenario. Two main research gaps were identified related to the (limited) number of existing quantitative models taking into account climate change and their validation in limited areas. Efforts are therefore mandatory to be prepared for future changes and challenges on model validation and limited mycotoxin-crop combinations.
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Faramarzi, Hassan, Seyed Mohsen Hosseini, Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, and Mahdi Farnaghi. "Forest fire spatial modelling using ordered weighted averaging multi-criteria evaluation." Journal of Forest Science 67, No. 2 (February 4, 2021): 87–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/50/2020-jfs.
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Forest fires are a major environmental issue because they are increasing as a consequence of climate change and global warming. The present study was aimed to model forest fire hazard using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) multi-criteria evaluation algorithm and to determine the role of human, climatic, and environmental factors in forest fire occurrence within the Golestan National Park (GNP), Iran. The database used for the present study was created according to daily classification of climate changes, environmental basic maps, and human-made influential forest fire factors. In the study area, the forest fires were registered using GPS. Expert opinions were applied through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the importance of effective factors. Fuzzy membership functions were used to standardize the thematic layers. The fire risk maps were prepared using different OWA scenarios for man-made, climatic, and environment factors. The findings revealed that roads (weight = 0.288), rainfalls (weight = 0.288), and aspects (weight = 0.255) are the major factors that contribute to the occurrence of forest fire in the study area. The forest fire maps prepared from different scenarios were validated using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Values of forest fire maps acquired from scenarios of human, environment, climate factors and their combination were 0.87, 0.731, 0.773 and 0.819, respectively.
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Caminade, Cyril, Jan Van Dijk, Matthew Baylis, and Diana Williams. "Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe." Geospatial Health 9, no. 2 (March 19, 2015): 301. http://dx.doi.org/10.4081/gh.2015.352.
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<em>Fasciola hepatica</em> is a parasitic worm responsible for fasciolosis in grazed ruminants in Europe. The free-living stages of this parasite are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture, as are the intermediate snail hosts the parasite depends on for its life-cycle. We used a climate-driven disease model in order to assess the impact of recent and potential future climate changes on the incidence of fasciolosis and to estimate the related uncertainties at the scale of the European landmass. The current climate appears to be highly suitable for fasciolosis throughout the European Union with the exception of some parts of the Mediterranean region. Simulated climatic suitability for fasciolosis significantly increased during the 2000s in central and northwestern Europe, which is consistent with an observed increased in ruminant infections. The simulation showed that recent trends are likely to continue in the future with the estimated pattern of climate change for northern Europe, possibly extending the season suitable for development of the parasite in the environment by up to four months. For southern Europe, the simulated burden of disease may be lower, but the projected climate change will increase the risk during the winter months, since the simulated changes in temperature and moisture support the development of the free-living and intra-molluscan stages between November and March. In the event of predicted climate change, <em>F. hepatica</em> will present a serious risk to the health, welfare and productivity of all ruminant livestock. Improved, bespoke control programmes, both at farm and region levels, will then become imperative if problems, such as resistance of the parasite associated with increased drug use, are to be mitigated.
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Bladon, Andrew J., Paul F. Donald, Nigel J. Collar, Jarso Denge, Galgalo Dadacha, Mengistu Wondafrash, and Rhys E. Green. "Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species." PLOS ONE 16, no. 5 (May 19, 2021): e0249633. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249633.
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Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species’ responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68–84% (for the swallow) and 90–100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances.
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Jarvie, Scott, and Jens-Christian Svenning. "Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 373, no. 1761 (October 22, 2018): 20170446. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0446.
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Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.
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Coulthard, T. J., J. Ramirez, H. J. Fowler, and V. Glenis. "Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 11 (November 26, 2012): 4401–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4401-2012.
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Abstract. Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade". This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr return period events are predicted to be 5 times larger than baseline values.
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Coulthard, T. J., J. Ramirez, H. J. Fowler, and V. Glenis. "Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on river basin sediment yield." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 7 (July 20, 2012): 8799–840. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-8799-2012.
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Abstract. Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status, as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from Global or Regional Climate Models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade". This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50 yr return period events are predicted to be 5 times larger than baseline values.
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Harrison, Matthew T., Brendan R. Cullen, and Richard P. Rawnsley. "Modelling the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and extreme climatic events." Agricultural Systems 148 (October 2016): 135–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.07.006.
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Lioubimtseva, Elena. "Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 28, no. 4 (December 2004): 502–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0309133304pp422oa.
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Arid regions are expected to undergo significant changes under a scenario of climate warming, but there is considerable variability and uncertainty in these estimates between different scenarios. The complexities of precipitation changes, vegetation-climate feedbacks and direct physiological effects of CO2 on vegetation present particular challenges for climate change modelling of arid regions. Great uncertainties exist in the prediction of arid ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 and global warming. Palaeodata provide important information about the past frequency, intensity and subregional patterns of change in the world’s deserts that cannot always be captured by the climatic models. However, it is important to bear in mind that the global mechanisms of Quaternary climatic variability were different from present-day trends, and any direct analogies between the past and present should be treated with great caution. Although palaeodata provide valuable information about possible past changes in the vegetation-climate system, it is unlikely that the history of the world’s deserts is a key for their future.
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Das, Apurba, and Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt. "Modelling climatic impacts on ice-jam floods: a review of current models, modelling capabilities, challenges, and future prospects." Environmental Reviews 29, no. 3 (September 2021): 378–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/er-2020-0108.
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River ice is an important hydraulic and hydrological component of many rivers in the high northern latitudes of the world. It controls the hydraulic characteristics of streamflow, affects the geomorphology of channels, and can cause flooding due to ice-jam formation during ice-cover freeze-up and breakup periods. In recent decades, climate change has considerably altered ice regimes, affecting the severity of ice-jam flooding. Although many approaches have been developed to model river ice regimes and the severity of ice-jam flooding, appropriate methods that account for the impacts of future climate on ice-jam flooding have not been well established. Therefore, the main goals of this study are to review current knowledge regarding climate change impacts on river ice processes and to assess current modelling capabilities to determine the severity of ice jams under future climatic conditions. Finally, a conceptual river ice-jam modelling approach is presented for incorporating climate change impacts on ice jams.
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MacDonald, G. M., K. D. Bennett, S. T. Jackson, L. Parducci, F. A. Smith, J. P. Smol, and K. J. Willis. "Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 32, no. 2 (April 2008): 139–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133308094081.
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Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-first-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refined atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.
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de Boer, Tesse, Homero Paltan, Troy Sternberg, and Kevin Wheeler. "Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin." Water 13, no. 5 (February 26, 2021): 615. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13050615.
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The Ili-Balkhash basin (IBB) is considered a key region for agricultural development and international transport as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IBB is exemplary for the combined challenge of climate change and shifts in water supply and demand in transboundary Central Asian closed basins. To quantify future vulnerability of the IBB to these changes, we employ a scenario-neutral bottom-up approach with a coupled hydrological-water resource modelling set-up on the RiverWare modelling platform. This study focuses on reliability of environmental flows under historical hydro-climatic variability, future hydro-climatic change and upstream water demand development. The results suggest that the IBB is historically vulnerable to environmental shortages, and any increase in water consumption will increase frequency and intensity of shortages. Increases in precipitation and temperature improve reliability of flows downstream, along with water demand reductions upstream and downstream. Of the demand scenarios assessed, extensive water saving is most robust to climate change. However, the results emphasize the competition for water resources among up- and downstream users and between sectors in the lower Ili, underlining the importance of transboundary water management to mitigate cross-border impacts. The modelling tool and outcomes may aid decision-making under the uncertain future in the basin.
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Hanna, Edward. "The role of Antarctic sea ice in global climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 20, no. 4 (December 1996): 371–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339602000401.
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Taking a distinct interdisciplinary focus, a critical view is presented of the current state of research concerning Antarctic sea-ice / atmosphere / ocean interaction and its effect on climate on the interannual timescale, with particular regard to anthropogenic global warming. Sea-ice formation, morphology, thickness, extent, seasonality and distribution are introduced as vital factors in climatic feedbacks. Sea-ice / atmosphere interaction is next discussed, emphas izing its meteorological and topographical influences and the effects of and on polar cyclonic activity. This leads on to the central theme of sea ice in global climate change, which contains critiques of sea-ice climatic feedbacks, current findings on the representation of these feedbacks in global climatic models, and to what extent they are corroborated by observational evidence. Sea-ice / ocean interaction is particularly important. This is discussed with special reference to polynyas and leads, and the use of suitably coupled sea-ice / ocean models. A brief review of several possible climatic forcing factors is presented, which most highly rates a postulated ENSO-Antarctic sea-ice link. Sea-ice / atmosphere / ocean models need to be validated by adequate observations, both from satellites and ground based. In particular, models developed in the Arctic, where the observational network allows more reasonable validation, can be applied to the Antarctic in suitably modified form so as to account for unique features of the Antarctic cryosphere. Benefits in climatic modelling will be gained by treating Antarctic sea ice as a fully coupled component of global climate.
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McKenzie, Donald, David W. Peterson, and David L. Peterson. "Modelling conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington State, USA." Forestry Chronicle 79, no. 2 (April 1, 2003): 253–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc79253-2.
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Understanding the effects of climatic change on mountain forests, where snowpacks and short growing seasons limit tree establishment and growth, is a key concern for both ecologists and foresters. We quantified associations between climatic and biophysical variables and individual conifer species distributions in mountain forests with generalized linear models. For the majority of species, a unimodal response to moisture and temperature gradients was evident, suggesting that an environmental niche can be identified. Species known to respond to limiting factors in the abiotic environment showed the strongest associations with predictor variables. The models can improve forecasts of the potential redistribution of species on the landscape in response to climatic change, but disturbance, migration rates, and limits on regeneration are important sources of uncertainty. Nevertheless, by identifying climate-based niches of different species, we can identify effective strategies for reforestation and alert managers to particularly sensitive or vulnerable ecosystems and landscapes. Key words: conifer species, mountain forests, generalized linear models, unimodal response, limiting factors
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Smart, Chris, and Alan Elliott. "Forward Planning for Scottish Gardens in the Face of Climate Change." Sibbaldia: the International Journal of Botanic Garden Horticulture, no. 13 (November 10, 2015): 131–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.24823/sibbaldia.2015.79.
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The impact of climate change and its effects on gardens has so far received limited academic attention. This paper offers a partial correction of this imbalance by investigating the potential impact of climate change on a selection of common Scottish garden plants. A climate envelope modelling approach was taken, whereby wild species distribution data were used to build climate ‘envelopes’ or descriptions of the native climates of selected species. The envelope models were projected onto future climate scenarios for Scotland, allowing observations to be made regarding the climatic suitability of Scotland, both currently and into the future, for each of the plants studied. The models and predictions for four species are described here along with strengths and limitations of the methodology. It is suggested that this approach, or variations of it, could become a useful tool in forward planning for gardens in assisting efforts to mitigate the effect of climate change.
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Barrientos, Guillermo, Albert Herrero, Andrés Iroumé, Oscar Mardones, and Ramon J. Batalla. "Modelling the Effects of Changes in Forest Cover and Climate on Hydrology of Headwater Catchments in South-Central Chile." Water 12, no. 6 (June 26, 2020): 1828. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12061828.
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This study analyses the changes in the runoff of forested experimental catchments in south-central Chile, to determine to what extent observed trends can be attributed to effects of intensive forestry and/or climate change. For this, we applied the distributed TETIS® model to eight catchments (7.1−413.6 ha) representative of the land uses and forestry activities in this geographical area. Rainfall and runoff data collected between 2008 and 2015 were used for modelling calibration and validation. Simulation of three land uses (current cover, partial harvest and native forest) and 25 combinations of climatic scenarios (percentage increases or decreases of up to 20% of rainfall and evapotranspiration relative to the no-change scenario applied to input series) were used in each calibration. We found that changes in land use and climate had contrasting effects on runoff. Smaller catchments affected by the driest climatic scenarios experienced higher runoff when the forest cover was lower than under full forest cover (plantations or native forests). In contrast, larger catchments under all climatic scenarios yielded higher runoff below the full forest cover than under partial harvest and native forest. This suggests that runoff can be influenced, to a great extent, by rainfall decrease and evapotranspiration increase, with the model predicting up to a 60% decrease in runoff yield for the dry’s climatic scenario. This study proves to be relevant to inform ongoing discussions related to forest management in Chile, and is intended to minimize the impact of forest cover on runoff yield under uncertain climatic scenarios.
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Srinivasulu, Aditya, Alembrhan Assefa, and Chelmala Srinivasulu. "Ecological niche modelling predicts significant impacts of future climate change on two endemic rodents in eastern Africa." Journal of Threatened Taxa 13, no. 5 (April 28, 2021): 18164–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.11609/jott.6715.13.5.18164-18176.
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The impact of climate change on rodents is well studied, however, many of these studies are restricted to the Americas. Small- to medium-sized rodents, especially murids, are restricted in their home range and microclimatic niche breadth, and are known to be more sensitive to changes in bioclimatic conditions over time. We analyzed the effect of future climatic scenarios in the near and distant future, using two global climate models (CanESM5 and MIROC-ES2L) for two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), on two eastern Africa endemic small-bodied mice: Stenocephalemys albipes and Mastomys awashensis. Our results indicate that while S. albipes showed increases in area of climatic suitability in the future, M. awashensis is predicted to suffer severe decline in the area of its fundamental niche.
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Piringer, Martin, Werner Knauder, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer, Ivonne Anders, Konrad Andre, and Günther Schauberger. "Odour Impact Assessment in a Changing Climate." Atmosphere 12, no. 9 (September 6, 2021): 1149. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091149.
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(1) Background: The impact of odour sources as stock farms on neighbouring residential areas might increase in the future because the relevant climatic parameters will be modified due to climate change. (2) Methodology: Separation distances are calculated for two Central European sites with considerable livestock activity influenced by different orographic and climatic conditions. Furthermore, two climate scenarios are considered, namely, the time period 1981–2010 (present climate) and the period 2036–2065 (future climate). Based on the provided climatic parameters, stability classes are derived as input for local-scale air pollution modelling. The separation distances are determined using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model LASAT. (3) Results: Main findings comprise the changes of stability classes between the present and the future climate and the resulting changes in the modelled odour impact. Model results based on different schemes for stability classification are compared. With respect to the selected climate scenarios and the variety of the stability schemes, a bandwidth of affected separation distances results. (4) Conclusions: The investigation reveals to what extent livestock husbandry will have to adapt to climate change, e.g., with impacts on today’s licensing processes.
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Kay, Alison L. "A review of snow in Britain." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 40, no. 5 (August 3, 2016): 676–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133316650617.
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Climate change is likely to have a significant effect on snow globally, with most effect where current winter temperatures are close to 0°C, including parts of upland Britain. There is evidence of decreasing trends in observations of snowfall and lying snow in Britain, and climate projections suggest a continuation of this trend. Although river flows in Britain are generally dominated by rainfall rather than snowmelt, some upland catchments have a significant snowmelt contribution. There is evidence of changes in observed and projected river flows in some catchments in Britain, linked to changes in snow, but it can be difficult to distinguish the effects of snow changes from those of other concurrent changes (climatic and non-climatic). Flow regime changes in catchments with widespread and prolonged winter snow cover usually involve increases in winter flow and decreases in spring flow, but the effect on catchments with more transient snow cover is less clear, as is the effect on high flows and water quality. Snow can also affect a number of other factors of socio-economic or environmental importance (e.g. transport and farming). There is some evidence that disruption due to snow may be less frequent in the future, but disruption from other types of weather events may increase. The impacts of snow tend to be worse in areas where events occur less frequently, due to unpreparedness, so there is a need to guard against complacency when it comes to future snow events in Britain, which can still be expected despite a likely reduction in frequency. Further modelling of the potential impacts of climate change, including modelling the influence of snow changes as well as other climatic and non-climatic changes, would aid adaptation and encourage mitigation.
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Chhogyel, Ngawang, Lalit Kumar, Yadunath Bajgai, and Layomi Sadeeka Jayasinghe. "Prediction of Bhutan's ecological distribution of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under the impact of climate change through maximum entropy modelling." Journal of Agricultural Science 158, no. 1-2 (March 2020): 25–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021859620000350.
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AbstractThe current research investigated the present and future projected distribution of rice (Oryza sativa L.) based on climatic suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The MaxEnt models predict that rice distribution in Bhutan will undergo major changes in terms of spatial range shift of varying magnitudes by 2060. Under the anthropogenic radiative forcing of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, ecological space of rice is predicted to change between 1 and 43%. Major changes are likely to take place in major rice-growing ecological zones of the country. This is likely to have a negative impact on the livelihood and food security of the people as crop production might start declining due to unfavourable climatic factors. Therefore, the findings of this study could prove beneficial for forecasting focus sites requiring interventions, including future climate research, planning, policy formulation and conservation of natural resources.
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Paul, F. "The influence of changes in glacier extent and surface elevation on modeled mass balance." Cryosphere 4, no. 4 (December 10, 2010): 569–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-569-2010.
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Abstract. Glaciers are widely recognized as unique demonstration objects for climate change impacts, mostly due to the strong change of glacier length in response to small climatic changes. However, glacier mass balance as the direct response to the annual atmospheric conditions can be better interpreted in meteorological terms. When the climatic signal is deduced from long-term mass balance data, changes in glacier geometry (i.e. surface extent and elevation) must be considered as such adjustments form an essential part of the glacier reaction to new climatic conditions. In this study, a set of modelling experiments is performed to assess the influence of changes in glacier geometry on mass balance for constant climatic conditions. The calculations are based on a simplified distributed energy/mass balance model in combination with information on glacier extent and surface elevation for the years 1850 and 1973/1985 for about 60 glaciers in the Swiss Alps. The results reveal that over this period about 50–70% of the glacier reaction to climate change (here a one degree increase in temperature) is "hidden" in the geometric adjustment, while only 30–50% can be measured as the long-term mean mass balance. For larger glaciers, the effect of the areal change is partly reduced by a lowered surface elevation, which results in a slightly more negative balance despite a potential increase of topographic shading. In view of several additional reinforcement feedbacks that are observed in periods of strong glacier decline, it seems that the climatic interpretation of long-term mass balance data is rather complex.
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Machar, Ivo, Veronika Vlckova, Lubomir Salek, Vilem Pechanec, Arkadiusz Nowak, Sylwia Nowak, Vitezslav Plasek, Juraj Svajda, Zdenek Oprsal, and Osman Topacoglu. "Environmental Modelling of Forest Vegetation Zones as A Support Tool for Sustainable Management of Central European Spruce Forests." Journal of Landscape Ecology 11, no. 3 (December 1, 2018): 45–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jlecol-2018-0012.
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Abstract The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems may manifest itself by a shift in forest vegetation zones in the landscape northward and into higher elevations. Studies of climate change-induced vegetation zone shifts in forest ecosystems have been relatively rare in the context of European temperate zone (apart from Alpine regions). The presented paper outlines the results of a biogeographic model of climatic conditions in forest vegetation zones applied in the Central European landscape. The objective of the study is a prediction of future silvicultural conditions for the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), which is one of the principal tree species within European forests. The model is based on a general environmental dependence of forest vegetation zones on the long-term effect of altitudinal and exposure climates defined by the mean and extreme air temperatures and the amount and distribution of atmospheric precipitation. The climatological data for the model were provided by a validated regional climate database for 2010 – 2090 according to the SRES A1B scenario, bound to specific geo-referenced points in the landscape. The geobiocoenological data in the model were provided by the Biogeography Register database which contains ecological data on the landscape bound to individual cadastres of the entire Czech Republic. The biogeographic model applies special programs (the FORTRAN programming language) in the environment of geographic information systems. The model outputs can be clearly graphically visualized as scenarios of predicted future climatic conditions of landscape vegetation zones. Modelling of the regional scenario of changes in the climatic conditions of forest vegetation zones reveals that in the prediction period of 2070 and beyond, good and very good climatic conditions for the cultivation of forests with dominant Norway spruce will be found only in some parts of its today’s native range in forest vegetation zones 5 – 8. Based on the results provided by the regional scenario, the authors of this paper recommend fundamental reassessment of the national strategy of sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic, stipulating that the current practice of spruce cultivation be reduced only to areas specifically defined by the biogeographic model. The paper shows that biogeographic models based on the concept of vegetation zoning can be applied not only in regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape but also as support tools for the creation of strategies of sustainable forest management.
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Neilson, Ronald P. "Transient Ecotone Response to Climatic Change: Some Conceptual and Modelling Approaches." Ecological Applications 3, no. 3 (August 1993): 385–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1941907.
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Jones, M. Q. W., P. D. Tyson, and G. R. J. Cooper. "Modelling climatic change in South Africa from perturbed borehole temperature profiles." Quaternary International 57-58 (June 1999): 185–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1040-6182(98)00059-7.
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Hernández-Lambraño, Ricardo Enrique, David Rodríguez de la Cruz, and José Ángel Sánchez Agudo. "Effects of the Climate Change on Peripheral Populations of Hydrophytes: A Sensitivity Analysis for European Plant Species Based on Climate Preferences." Sustainability 13, no. 6 (March 12, 2021): 3147. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13063147.
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Biogeographical theory suggests that widespread retractions of species’ rear edges are expected due to anthropogenic climate change, affecting in a particularly intense way those linked to fragile habitats, such as species’ rear edges closely dependent on specific water conditions. In this way, this paper studies the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change on distribution patterns of threatened rear edge populations of five European hydrophyte plants distributed in the Iberian Peninsula. We explored (i) whether these populations occur at the limit of the species’ climatic tolerance, (ii) we quantified their geographic patterns of vulnerability to climate change, and in addition, (iii) we identified in a spatially explicit way whether these threatened populations occur in vulnerable environments to climate change. To do this, we simulated the climatic niche of five hydrophyte species using an ecological modelling approach based on occurrences and a set of readily available climatic data. Our results show that the Iberian populations studied tended to occur in less suitable environments relative to each of the species’ optimal climates. This result suggests a plausible explanation for the current degree of stagnancy or regression experienced by these populations which showed high sensitivity and thus vulnerability to thermal extremes and high seasonality of wet and temperature. Climatic predictions for 2050 displayed that most of the examined populations will tend to occur in situations of environmental risk in the Iberian Peninsula. This result suggests that the actions aimed at the conservation of these populations should be prioritized in the geographic locations in which vulnerability is greatest.
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De Jong, R., B. Qian, and J. Y. Yang. "Modelling nitrogen leaching in Prince Edward Island under climate change scenarios." Canadian Journal of Soil Science 88, no. 1 (February 1, 2008): 61–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.4141/cjss07032.
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Projected climate change in Canada and its impact on crop yield and production have been studied, but the impacts on soil and water quality are less well known. The objective of this study was to model and evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on soil nitrogen (N) leaching in Prince Edward Island. Residual soil nitrogen (RSN), the quantity of inorganic soil N at the time of harvest, was calculated from an annual N budget, based on Census of Agriculture data. RSN was "added" to the soil in the fall and subject to leaching until the start of the next growing season. Water and N movement in and through the soil were calculated with a modified version of the Versatile Soil Moisture Budget. The provincial averages of RSN and N leaching under historic (1971–2000) climate and management conditions were calculated to be 30.8 kg N ha-1 and 27.9 kg N ha-1, i.e. , 91% of the RSN was lost via leaching. With no changes in agricultural practices, N leaching under four climate change (2040–2069) scenarios remained very similar (± 1%) to that simulated under historic climatic conditions. With agricultural intensification, in response to climate change and economic conditions, RSN levels increased to 35.7 kg N ha-1 and estimates of soil N leaching increased by 5 to 30% beyond historic levels. Key words: Residual soil nitrogen, versatile soil moisture budget, climate change impacts, agricultural adaptation, water contamination
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A. Betts, Richard. "Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360, no. 1463 (October 24, 2005): 2049–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1739.
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This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.
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Dagtekin, Dilsad, Evrim A. Şahan, Thomas Denk, Nesibe Köse, and H. Nüzhet Dalfes. "Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections." PLOS ONE 15, no. 11 (November 17, 2020): e0242280. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242280.
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Species distribution models can help predicting range shifts under climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the late Quaternary distribution of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) and to project future distribution ranges under different climate change scenarios using a combined palaeobotanical, phylogeographic, and modelling approach. Five species distribution modelling algorithms under the R-package `biomod2`were applied to occurrence data of Fagus orientalis to predict distributions under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 ka, Mid-Holocene, 6 ka), and future climatic conditions with different scenarios obtained from MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 global climate models. Distribution models were compared to palaeobotanical and phylogeographic evidence. Pollen data indicate northern Turkey and the western Caucasus as refugia for Oriental beech during the Last Glacial Maximum. Although pollen records are missing, molecular data point to Last Glacial Maximum refugia in northern Iran. For the mid-Holocene, pollen data support the presence of beech in the study region. Species distribution models predicted present and Last Glacial Maximum distribution of Fagus orientalis moderately well yet underestimated mid-Holocene ranges. Future projections under various climate scenarios indicate northern Iran and the Caucasus region as major refugia for Oriental beech. Combining palaeobotanical, phylogeographic and modelling approaches is useful when making projections about distributions of plants. Palaeobotanical and molecular evidence reject some of the model projections. Nevertheless, the projected range reduction in the Caucasus region and northern Iran highlights their importance as long-term refugia, possibly related to higher humidity, stronger environmental and climatic heterogeneity and strong vertical zonation of the forest vegetation.
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Wu, J., L. van der Linden, G. Lasslop, N. Carvalhais, K. Pilegaard, C. Beier, and A. Ibrom. "Effects of climate variability and functional changes on the interannual variation of the carbon balance in a temperate deciduous forest." Biogeosciences 9, no. 1 (January 3, 2012): 13–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-13-2012.
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Abstract. The net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) between the atmosphere and a temperate beech forest showed a significant interannual variation (IAV) and a decadal trend of increasing carbon uptake (Pilegaard et al., 2011). The objectives of this study were to evaluate to what extent and at which temporal scale, direct climatic variability and changes in ecosystem functional properties regulated the IAV of the carbon balance at this site. Correlation analysis showed that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. Ecosystem response anomalies implied that changes in the distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period will have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. We improved a published modelling approach which distinguishes the direct climatic effects from changes in ecosystem functioning (Richardson et al., 2007) by employing the semi empirical model published by Lasslop et al. (2010b). Fitting the model in short moving windows enabled large flexibility to adjust the parameters to the seasonal course of the ecosystem functional state. At the annual time scale as much as 80% of the IAV in NEE was attributed to the variation in photosynthesis and respiration related model parameters. Our results suggest that the observed decadal NEE trend at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the importance of understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections.
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Hammer, G. L., D. R. Woodruff, and J. B. Robinson. "Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping—A modelling approach." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 41, no. 1-2 (October 1987): 123–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(87)90074-8.
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Ďurský, J., J. Škvarenina, J. Minďáš, and A. Miková. "Regional analysis of climate change impact on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) growth in Slovak mountain forests." Journal of Forest Science 52, No. 7 (January 9, 2012): 306–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/4512-jfs.
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The paper presents the results of a regional analysis of climate change impacts on Norway spruce growth in the north-western part of Slovakia(Orava region). Radial increment was determined from nine X-tree sample plots established in the forests of natural character in the region. The analysis of PTT radial increment was done on tree disks cut from a height of 1.3 m by measurements of four perpendicular directions corresponding to the cardinal points. It was derived from the tree-ring width measured at breast height (1.3 m) while all the basic principles of tree-ring analyses were observed (transport and borehole treatment, measurements with digital positiometer to the nearest 0.01 mm, synchronisation of the tree-ring diagrams). A dendroclimatic model belongs to the category of empirical models based on the statistical evaluation of empirically derived dependences between the time series of tree-ring parameters and the monthly climatic characteristics. This statistical evaluation is based on a multiple linear regression model. Climatic models were used as basic tools for climatic change prediction. There is a scenario coming from the GCM category, which is derived from the models of Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria (British Columbia, Canada), used for a solution of this task. It is the latest connected model from the second generation designated CCCM 2000. For the purpose of this study the area averages were modified for the meteorological station Oravská Polhora with the 1951–1980 reference period. The modification includes two climatic characteristics, total monthly precipitation and monthly temperature means. The frequency analysis indicates that 24.4% of trees would react to the assumed climatic change negatively, i.e. by decreasing the increment, and 75.6% of trees would react positively. Most of the reactions are moderately positive. It is to conclude that 14.6% of trees will react to a climatic change significantly in a negative way, the reactions of 34.1% trees are considered to be unchanged and 51.3% of trees should react to the assumed climatic change positively (P = 0.95). It results from the analysis of the climatic change impact that the highest effect on stands situated on the upper forest limit can be expected.
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Sirnik, Igor, Hervé Quénol, Miguel Ángel Jiménez-Bello, Juan Manzano, and Renan Le Roux. "Viticulture under climate change impact: future climate and irrigation modelling." E3S Web of Conferences 50 (2018): 01041. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185001041.
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Vine is highly sensitive to climate changes, particularly temperature changes, which can be reflected in the quality of yield. We obtained meteorological data from weather station Llíria in viticultural site Valencia DO in Spain from the period 1961-2016 and elaborated the future modelling scenario Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for the period 1985-2100 within the Coupled Model Intercomparison, Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for daily temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. The irrigation requirements (IR) future models for grape varieties Tempranillo and Bobal were elaborated. Temperature and evapotranspiration trends increased during observation period and are estimated to continue rising, according to the future model. Nevertheless, precipitation trend is estimated to decrease according to the model. The future scenarios show increase trend of temperature and evapotranspiration and decrease of precipitation. Total IR for the period 1985 – 2100 is expected to increase during growing season months according to the trendline for 16.6 mm (RCP4.5) and 40.0 mm (RCP8.5) for Tempranillo and 8.2 mm (RCP4.5) and 30.9 mm (RCP8.5) for Bobal grape variety. The outcome of this research is important to understand better the future climatic trends in Valencia DO and provides valuable data to face the future climate changes.
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Posch, M., J. Aherne, M. Forsius, S. Fronzek, and N. Veijalainen. "Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 4, no. 5 (September 11, 2007): 3209–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-4-3209-2007.
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Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by which climate changes affect key biogeochemical processes need to be incorporated directly into process-oriented models such as MAGIC.
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Holt, Jason, James Harle, Roger Proctor, Sylvain Michel, Mike Ashworth, Crispian Batstone, Icarus Allen, et al. "Modelling the global coastal ocean." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 367, no. 1890 (December 16, 2008): 939–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0210.
Full textAbstract:
Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries.
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Posch, M., J. Aherne, M. Forsius, S. Fronzek, and N. Veijalainen. "Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 2 (March 5, 2008): 449–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-449-2008.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.
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Xu, Chong-yu. "From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 23, no. 2 (June 1999): 229–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339902300204.
Full textAbstract:
The scientific literature of the past decade contains a large number of reports detailing the development of downscaling methods and the use of hydrologic models to assess the potential effects of climate change on a variety of water resource issues. This article reviews the current state of methodologies for simulating hydrological responses to global climate change. Emphasis is given to recent advances in climatic downscaling and the problems related to the practical application of appropriate models in impact studies. Following a discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of the various approaches, challenges for the future study of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.