Relevant bibliographies by topics / Climatic change modelling

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Climatic change modelling'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 9 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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Hall, D. O., F. Veroustraete, R. J. M. Ceulemans, I. I. P. Impens, and J. B. H. H. Van Rensbergen. "Vegetation, Modelling and Climatic Change Effects." Journal of Ecology 85, no. 1 (1997): 107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2960639.

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Couture, Nicole J., and Wayne H. Pollard. "Modelling geomorphic response to climatic change." Climatic Change 85, no. 3-4 (2007): 407–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9309-5.

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John, Andrew, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Michael Stewardson, and J. Angus Webb. "How to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 2 (2020): 327–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.263.

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Abstract Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater ecosystems. These approaches offer a promising way of incorporating climatic uncertainty and balancing competing environmental objectives, but some practical challenges remain in their adoption for modelling environmental water outcomes under climate change.
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Simonovic, Slobodan P., and Evan G. R. Davies. "Are we modelling impacts of climatic change properly?" Hydrological Processes 20, no. 2 (2006): 431–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6106.

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Heikkinen, Risto K., Miska Luoto, Miguel B. Araújo, Raimo Virkkala, Wilfried Thuiller, and Martin T. Sykes. "Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 30, no. 6 (2006): 751–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133306071957.

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Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.
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Dutra Silva, Lara, Eduardo Brito de Azevedo, Francisco Vieira Reis, Rui Bento Elias, and Luís Silva. "Limitations of Species Distribution Models Based on Available Climate Change Data: A Case Study in the Azorean Forest." Forests 10, no. 7 (2019): 575. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10070575.

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Climate change is gaining attention as a major threat to biodiversity. It is expected to further expand the risk of plant invasion through ecosystem disturbance. Particularly, island ecosystems are under pressure, and climate change may threaten forest-dependent species. However, scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how climate change and biological invasions will affect species interactions and ecosystem processes. The purpose of this study was to identify possible limitations when making species distribution model projections based on predicted climate change. We aimed to know if climatic variables alone were good predictors of habitat suitability, ensuring reliable projections. In particular, we compared the performance of generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and a selection of machine learning techniques (BIOMOD 2) when modelling the distribution of forest species in the Azores, according to the climatic changes predicted to 2100. Some limitations seem to exist when modelling the effect of climate change on species distributions, since the best models also included topographic variables, making modelling based on climate alone less reliable, with model fit varying among modelling approaches, and random forest often providing the best results. Our results emphasize the adoption of a careful study design and algorithm selection process. The uncertainties associated with climate change effect on plant communities as a whole, including their indigenous and invasive components, highlight a pressing need for integrated modelling, monitoring, and experimental work to better realize the consequences of climate change, in order to ensure the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing world.
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Vlčková, Veronika, Antonín Buček, Ivo Machar, et al. "The Application of Geobiocoenological Landscape Typology in The Modelling of Climate Change Implications." Journal of Landscape Ecology 8, no. 2 (2015): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jlecol-2015-0010.

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Abstract Geobiocoenological landscape typology, which is used in landscape planning in the Czech Republic, includes vegetation zonation of the landscape. Vegetation zones are determined by climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions will probably be manifested in the shift of vegetation zones in the landscape. Mathematical geobiocoenological model of vegetation zonation of the landscape is based on the general ecological relationship between the current vegetation zonation and present climatic conditions and the assumption that this general relationship will be maintained in the future. The paper presents the application of the model using the example of the prediction of changes in climatic conditions for the Norway spruce (the first-generation of the model) and grapevine (the second-generation of the model) in the Czech Republic. In the case of the Norway spruce example, the model shows that the predicted changes in climatic conditions will prevent the cultivation of the spruce in the Czech Republic outside its natural range in mountainous areas. The results of the presented model for grapevine show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area.These examples demonstrate the potential for the application of geobiocoenological landscape typology in the modeling of the effects of climate change in the landscape.
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Felicísimo, Ángel M., Ignacio Armendáriz, and Virginia Alberdi Nieves. "Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain." Horticultural Science 48, No. 1 (2021): 38–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/85/2019-hortsci.

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Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry.
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O'Brien, Karen L. "Tropical deforestation and climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 20, no. 3 (1996): 311–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339602000304.

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This article reviews the physical links between tropical rain forests and the atmos phere, and considers the results of studies which address the climatic impacts of deforestation. Tropical deforestation is widely believed to influence local, regional and possibly global cli mates. Although the relationship between deforestation and climate change is complex, there is a growing consensus that deforestation leads to warmer, drier climates. The consensus is based on experimental studies at the microscale and modelling studies at the global scale, sup plemented by a small number of observational studies at the local and regional scale. However, none of the local and regional studies examine both deforestation and climate change in a rigorous manner, or consider the results in the context of synoptic-scale phenomena. Conse quently, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the local and regional impacts of deforestation on the climate.
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Seiller, G., and F. Anctil. "Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 6 (2014): 2033–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2033-2014.

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Abstract. Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficult task pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modelling steps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertainty as well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several members from the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimatic modelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspiration formulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and seven snowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadian sub-catchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to the natural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by five climatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current and projected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs and hydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climate variability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potential evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selected snowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. The analysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the current climate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertainty is propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified by climatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting for several climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related to the climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modelling tools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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Xiaohan, Liao. "Two general circulation model experiments for 6000 years B.P. : analyses and comparisons with palaeoclimatic data." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.333247.

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Kerr, Andrew Robert. "Modelling the response of ice sheets to climatic change and topography." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/19896.

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The aim of this project is to investigate the influence of climate and topography on ice sheets in maritime environments. Numerical models are adapted to simulate the behaviour of the climate and ice sheets in southern Chile and Scotland during the last glaciation. The climate model relates climatic variables to snow accumulation and ablation using an energy balance model. The ice sheet model is based on the continuity equation for ice thickness and relates surface mass exchange to ice thickness and flow. Subsequently, a simple topography model is developed to examine the critical transition between glaciers and ice sheets. The net mass balance gradient in maritime regions is primarily sensitive to temperature and precipitation. Ice sheet initiation is strongly influenced by the adjacent ocean's temperature, which affects the delicate balance between decreasing precipitation and decreasing temperature. In Chile, expanded glaciation reflects an equatorward movement of the prevailing westerlies, though the postulated migration of precipitation belts implies that the maximum depression of the snowline is unlikely to have been contemporaneous at different latitudes. In Scotland, ice sheets appear to be triggered by the southward movement of the North Atlantic polar front. The configuration and latitude of upland topography determines the point of initiation and the threshold between stable upland glaciers and the growth of an ice sheet. The topography acts as a filter between climate and the response of a glacier, and topographic evolution leads to a powerful feedback between topography, climate and ice over Quaternary time scales.
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Medeiros, Yvonilde D. P. "Modelling the hydrological impacts of climatic change on a semi-arid region." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386025.

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Burgess, P. E. "Future climatic and cryospheric change on millennial timescales : an assessment using two-dimensional climate modelling studies." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.266737.

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Harrison, Paula A. "Climate change and wheat production : spatial modelling of impacts in Europe." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.310423.

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Immerzeel, Walter. "Spatial modelling of mountainous basins : an integrated analysis of the hydrological cycle, climate change and agriculture /." Utrecht : Koninklijk Nederlands Aardrijkskundig Genootschap, Faculteit Geowetenschappen Universiteit Utrecht, 2008. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy0804/2008400396.html.

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Linden, Sandra van der. "Icy rivers heating up : modelling hydrological impacts of climate change in the (sub)arctic /." Amsterdam : Utrecht : Koninklijk Nederlands Aardrijkskundig Genootschap ; Faculteit Ruimtelijke Wetenschappen, Universiteit Utrecht, 2002. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=010495642&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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Larson, Robert, and University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. "Modelling climate change impacts on mountain snow hydrology, Montana-Alberta." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Arts and Science, 2008, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/669.

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A modelling approach focused on snow hydrology was developed and applied to project future changes in spring streamflow volumes in the St. Mary River headwaters basin, Montana. A spatially distributed, physically-based, hydrometeorological and snow mass balance model was refined and used to produce snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall surfaces for the study watershed. Snowmelt runoff (SR) and effective rainfall runoff (RR) volumes were compiled for the 1961-2004 historical period. A statistical regression model was developed linking spring streamflow volume (QS) at Babb, Montana to the SR and RR modelled data. The modelling results indicated that SR explained 70% of the variability in QS while RR explained another 9%. The model was applied to climate change scenarios representing the expected range of future change to produce annual QS for the period 2010-2099. Compared to the base period (1961-1990), average QS change ranged from -3% to -12% for the 2020s period. Percent changes increased to between -25% and -32% for the 2050s, and -38% and -55% for the 2080s. Decreases in QS also accompanied substantial advances in the onset of spring snowmelt. Whereas the spring pulse onset on average occurred on April 8 for the base period, it occurred 36 to 50 days earlier during the 2080s. The findings suggest that increasing precipitation will not compensate for the effects of increasing temperature in watershed SWE and associated spring runoff generation. There are implications for stakeholder interests related to ecosystems, the irrigation industry, and recreation.<br>xii, 136 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm. --
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Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus. "Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95831.

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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fisiese sowel as ekonomiese kwesbaarheid van die landbousektor as gevolg van klimaatverandering word deur verskeie studies beklemtoon. ‘n Gevallestudie-benadering is gebruik ten einde die potensiële impak van klimaatsverandering op die finansiële kwesbaarheid van verskillende boerderystelsels te bepaal. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel bestaan uit vier modelleringsmodules, naamlik: klimaatsverandering, dinamiese liniêre programmering (DLP), interfases en finansiële-kwesbaarheidsontleding. Empiries afgeskaalde klimatologiese data van vyf verskillende klimaatmodelle dien as basis vir die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel. Die APSIM gewas-model word aangewend om die impak van klimaatsverandering op gewasse-opbrengs te bepaal. Vir sekere gewasse is daar egter nie modelle beskikbaaar nie en het gevolglik die ontwikkeling van ‘n nuwe model genoodsaak. Die Kritiese Gewasse Klimaatsdrempelwaarde (KGKD) modelleringstegniek is ontwikkel ten einde die impak van klimaatsverandering op die opbrengs en kwaliteit van gewasse te kwantifiseer. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel neem ook die verwagte verandering in besproeiingswaterbeskikbaarheid (ACRU-hidrologiemodel) en gewas-besproeiingsbehoeftes (SAPWAT3-model) as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in ag. Die model lewer waardevolle resultate op, naamlik: geprojekteerde veranderinge in gewasse-opbrengs en -kwaliteit, geprojekteerde verandering in beskikbaarheid van besproeiingswater en gewasse-besproeiingsbehoeftes, die optimale kombinering van boerdery-aktiwiteite om netto kontantvloei te maksimeer, asook ‘n stel finansiële resultate wat die impak van klimaatsverandering kwantifiseer. Die finansiële kriteria sluit in: interne opbrengskoers, netto huidige waarde, kontanvloeiverhouding, hoogste skuldverhouding en hoogste skuldvlak. Deur middel van deskundige-groepbesprekings is aanpassingstrategieë vir elk van die gevallestudies geïdentifiseer en by die geïntegreerde model ingesluit as alternatiewe opsies in die DLP-model. Die studie poog om die gaping in die huidige klimaatsveranderingnavorsing met betekking tot ‘n geïntegreerde ekonomiese model op plaasvlak aan te spreek en sodoende ‘n bydrae tot geïntegreerde klimaatveranderingmodellering te maak.
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MacDonald, Ryan J., and University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. "Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on snowpack in the St. Mary River watershed, Montana." Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, c2008, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/2511.

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Climate change poses significant threats to mountain ecosystems in North America (Barnett et al., 2005) and will subsequently impact water supply for human and ecosystem use. To assess these threats, we must have an understanding of the local variability in hydrometeorological conditions over the mountains. This thesis describes the continued development and application of a fine scale spatial hydrometeorological model, GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input). The GENESYS model successfully simulated daily snowpack values for a 10 year trial period and annual runoff volumes for a thirty year period. Based on the results of these simulations the model was applied to estimate potential changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed, Montana. GCM derived future climate scenarios were applied, representing a range of emissions controls and applied to perturb the 1961-90 climate record using the “delta” downscaling technique. The effects of these changes in climate were assessed for thirty year time slices centered on 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The GENESYS simulations of future climate showed that mountain snowpack was highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation. A seasonal shift to an earlier onset of spring melt and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow occurred under all climate change scenarios. Results of mean and maximum snowpack were more variable and appeared to be highly dependent on scenario selection. The results demonstrated that although annual volume of available water from snowpack may increase, the seasonal distribution of available water may be significantly altered.<br>viii, 93 leaves ; 29 cm
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Books on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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E, Schlesinger M., ed. Physically-based modelling and simulation of climate and climatic change. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988.

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Schlesinger, M. E., ed. Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3041-4.

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Schlesinger, M. E., ed. Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8.

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Janssen, Marco. Modelling global change: The art of integrated assessment modelling. Edward Elgar Pub., 1998.

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Gosain, Ashvani K. Modelling climate change impact on the hydrology of the eastern Himalayas. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, 2010.

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Sanderson, Jamie. Climate change and economic development: SEA regional modelling and analysis. Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.

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Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics (1st 2004 A Toxa, Spain). Economic modelling of climate change and energy policies. Edward Elgar, 2004.

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service), SpringerLink (Online, ed. Environmental change in Siberia: Earth observation, field studies and modelling. Springer, 2010.

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International Summer Colloquium on Climate Change Dynamics and Modelling (3rd 1990 Beijing, China). The Third International Summer Colloquium on Climate Change Dynamics and Modelling, August 14-20, Beijing, China. China Meteorological Press, 1990.

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Suasteguiá, Angel Utset. Introducing modelling tools to support water-management decision-making under climate change conditions. Nova Science Publishers, 2009.

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Book chapters on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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Crowley, Thomas J. "Paleoclimate Modelling." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_7.

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Saltzman, Barry. "Modelling the Slow Climate Attractor." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_3.

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Crucifix, Michel, Philippe Tulkens, and Andre Berger. "Modelling Abrupt Climatic Change During the Last Glaciation." In Geophysical Monograph Series. American Geophysical Union, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/gm126p0117.

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Sivakumar, T., P. T. Suraj, and P. C. Jayashree. "Trends in Climatic Change in the Last 50 Years at Seven Agro-climatic Regions of Tamil Nadu." In Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture. Springer India, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2157-9_19.

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Hibler, W. D. "Modelling Sea Ice Thermodynamics and Dynamics in Climate Studies." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3041-4_12.

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Chervin, Robert M. "On the Relationship Between Computer Technology and Climate Modelling." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_12.

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Mitchell, J. F. B. "Simulation of Climate Change Due to Increased Atmospheric CO2." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_11.

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Han, Young-June. "Modelling and Simulation of the General Circulation of the Ocean." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3041-4_11.

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Olesen, Jørgen E., and Kai Grevsen. "Simulation of Effects of Climatic Change on Cauliflower Production." In Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics. Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_11.

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Galán, E., R. Cañada, F. Fernández, and B. Cervera. "Annual Temperature Evolution in the Southern Plateau of Spain from the Construction of Regional Climatic Time Series." In Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_11.

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Conference papers on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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R. Davies, Evan, and Slobodan Simonovic. "Modelling Social-Economic-Climatic Feedbacks for Policy Development." In 2006 IEEE EIC Climate Change Conference. IEEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eicccc.2006.277267.

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Pei, Qing, David D. Zhang, and Jingjing Xu. "Price Responses of Grain Market under Climate Change in Pre-industrial Western Europe by ARX Modelling." In Special Session on Applications of Modeling and Simulation to Climatic Change and Environmental Sciences. SCITEPRESS - Science and and Technology Publications, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0005025208110817.

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Mesenzeva, Irina, Irina Mesenzeva, Elena Sovga, et al. "SELF-PURIFICATION OF SEA COASTAL WATER AREAS UNDER CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGE." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4315890e6b.

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The ability of a bay and gulf ecosystems to self-purification was estimated and the current ecological state of the Sevastopol Bay in whole and the separated parts of the bay was given as an example. A zoning by type of anthropogenic impact subject to the water exchange with the open sea and an influence of the Chernaya River run-off were taken into account. A comparative analysis of assimilation capacity of the most environmentally disadvantaged part of the Sevastopol Bay (the Southern Bay) and the clean water area, bordering on the open sea, was carried out. The hydrodynamic regime of the Sevastopol Bay was described using numerical modelling. The prospect, opportunity and examples of the methodology for assessing the assimilation capacity of marine ecosystems are demonstrated.
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Mesenzeva, Irina, Irina Mesenzeva, Elena Sovga, et al. "SELF-PURIFICATION OF SEA COASTAL WATER AREAS UNDER CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGE." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b949eaa36b5.77769862.

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The ability of a bay and gulf ecosystems to self-purification was estimated and the current ecological state of the Sevastopol Bay in whole and the separated parts of the bay was given as an example. A zoning by type of anthropogenic impact subject to the water exchange with the open sea and an influence of the Chernaya River run-off were taken into account. A comparative analysis of assimilation capacity of the most environmentally disadvantaged part of the Sevastopol Bay (the Southern Bay) and the clean water area, bordering on the open sea, was carried out. The hydrodynamic regime of the Sevastopol Bay was described using numerical modelling. The prospect, opportunity and examples of the methodology for assessing the assimilation capacity of marine ecosystems are demonstrated.
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Stefanakos, Christos N., and Erik Vanem. "Climatic Forecasting of Wind and Waves Using Fuzzy Inference Systems." In ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2017-61968.

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Wind and wave climatic simulations are of great interest in a number of different applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. In a climate change perspective, projections of such simulations to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. This work investigates the applicability of FIS/ANFIS models for climatic simulations of wind and wave data. The models are coupled with a nonstationary time series modelling, which decomposes the initial time series into a seasonal mean value and a residual part multiplied by a seasonal standard deviation. In this way, the nonstationary character is first removed before starting the fuzzy forecasting procedure. Then, the FIS/ANFIS models are applied to the stationary residual part providing us with more unbiased climatic estimates. Two long-term datasets for an area in the North Atlantic Ocean are used in the present study, namely NORA10 (57 years) and ExWaCli (30 years in the present and 30 years in the future). Two distinct experiments have been performed to simulate future values of the time series in a climatic scale. The assessment of the simulations by means of the actual values kept for comparison purposes gives very good results.
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Stefanakos, Christos N., and Erik Vanem. "Comparison of Wind and Wave Extremes in Very Long-Term Climatic Scales." In ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2018-77581.

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The study of very long-term ocean climate is of great interest in a number of different applications. In a climate change perspective, estimations of return values of wind and wave parameters to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, there are various ways of estimating the required return values, which introduce additional uncertainties in extreme weather and climate variables pertaining to both current and future climates. The different approaches that are considered in the present work include the annual maxima approach, the block maxima approach, and the MENU method which is based on the calculation of return periods of various level values from nonstationary time series data. Furthermore, the effect of different modelling choices within each of the approaches will be explored. Thus, a range of different return value estimates for the different data sets is obtained for a field of datapoints. Long-term datasets for an area in the North Atlantic Ocean are used in the present study, derived for project ExWaCli, comprising of 30 years in the present (historic period) and two sets of 30 years in the future (future projections). The comparison between the results of the various approaches reveals a variability of the return period estimates, and an assessment of this is given. Moreover, it seems that a slight shift towards higher extremes in a future wave climate might be possible based on the particular datasets that have been analysed.
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Armstrong, Jennifer, and Ata Khan. "Modelling Intelligent Transportation Systems and Their Implications for Climate Change." In 2006 IEEE EIC Climate Change Conference. IEEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eicccc.2006.277184.

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"Modelling hydrological changes in New South Wales under future climate change." In 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2015.g4.young.

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Lucas, C., M. Bernardino, and C. Guedes Soares. "Relation Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in the North Atlantic and the Sea States in the Iberian Peninsula." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18654.

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Abstract A statistical analysis of significant wave height (Hs) in eight locations offshore Portugal continental coast is performed. Specifically, locations at different water depths at Aguçadoura, Leixões, Nazaré, Peniche, Sines and Faro were chosen. The spectral and parametric information from these points used in this analysis was obtained from 21-year hindcast simulations using the spectral wave model SWAN. The modelling of the climatic variability of directional spectra provides reliable information of the most relevant parameters at these locations, i.e., how the spectral parameters and their probability of occurrence change in the regions studied. The occurrences of spectral classes are estimated, and for each class, the variability of the spectral parameters is described by means of joint distributions. The classification of the different sea states provides important information about the wave conditions present in the target areas. A relation between the sea states and the Lamb weather types (WTs), a methodology for classifying atmospheric circulation patterns, is presented in this study. The results of this study provide a description of the wave climate, through the interaction between the sea states and weather patterns, relating different circulation patterns to different sea states. This study provides useful information on the wave conditions that can be used in the design of ocean engineering structures, in the assessment of the operability and safety of shipping and renewable energy devices.
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Masys, A. J. "Understanding Climate Change through Modelling and Simulation: A Case for Verification, Validation and Accreditation." In 2006 IEEE EIC Climate Change Conference. IEEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eicccc.2006.277225.

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Reports on the topic "Climatic change modelling"

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Flato, G., N. Gillett, V. Arora, A. Cannon, and J. Anstey. Modelling future climate change. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/327808.

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Verburg, Peter H., Žiga Malek, Sean P. Goodwin, and Cecilia Zagaria. The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE. Inter-American Development Bank, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003625.

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The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.
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Qiang, B., and R. De Jong. Modelling four climate change scenarios for Prince Edward Island. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/327232.

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De Jong, R., B. Qiang, and J. Y. Yang. Modelling of nitrogen leaching in Prince Edward Island under climate change scenarios. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/327233.

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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Dyke, L., and W. Sladen. Assessing the impact of climate change on permafrost based on field observations and modelling - Wapusk National Park case study: sub-activity: in-situ monitoring of permafrost dynamics in response to climate change. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/290160.

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Zhang, Y., J. Li, X. Wang, et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on permafrost based on field observations and modelling/mapping - Wapusk National Park case study. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/290159.

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Vigneault, H., D. Paradis, J. M. Ballard, and R. lefebvre. Numerical modelling of the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations under various climate change scenarios and agricultural practices for Prince Edward Island. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/225779.

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Downes, Jane, ed. Chalcolithic and Bronze Age Scotland: ScARF Panel Report. Society for Antiquaries of Scotland, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.9750/scarf.09.2012.184.

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The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarised under five key headings:  Building the Scottish Bronze Age: Narratives should be developed to account for the regional and chronological trends and diversity within Scotland at this time. A chronology Bronze Age Scotland: ScARF Panel Report iv based upon Scottish as well as external evidence, combining absolute dating (and the statistical modelling thereof) with re-examined typologies based on a variety of sources – material cultural, funerary, settlement, and environmental evidence – is required to construct a robust and up to date framework for advancing research.  Bronze Age people: How society was structured and demographic questions need to be imaginatively addressed including the degree of mobility (both short and long-distance communication), hierarchy, and the nature of the ‘family’ and the ‘individual’. A range of data and methodologies need to be employed in answering these questions, including harnessing experimental archaeology systematically to inform archaeologists of the practicalities of daily life, work and craft practices.  Environmental evidence and climate impact: The opportunity to study the effects of climatic and environmental change on past society is an important feature of this period, as both palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data can be of suitable chronological and spatial resolution to be compared. Palaeoenvironmental work should be more effectively integrated within Bronze Age research, and inter-disciplinary approaches promoted at all stages of research and project design. This should be a two-way process, with environmental science contributing to interpretation of prehistoric societies, and in turn, the value of archaeological data to broader palaeoenvironmental debates emphasised. Through effective collaboration questions such as the nature of settlement and land-use and how people coped with environmental and climate change can be addressed.  Artefacts in Context: The Scottish Chalcolithic and Bronze Age provide good evidence for resource exploitation and the use, manufacture and development of technology, with particularly rich evidence for manufacture. Research into these topics requires the application of innovative approaches in combination. This could include biographical approaches to artefacts or places, ethnographic perspectives, and scientific analysis of artefact composition. In order to achieve this there is a need for data collation, robust and sustainable databases and a review of the categories of data.  Wider Worlds: Research into the Scottish Bronze Age has a considerable amount to offer other European pasts, with a rich archaeological data set that includes intact settlement deposits, burials and metalwork of every stage of development that has been the subject of a long history of study. Research should operate over different scales of analysis, tracing connections and developments from the local and regional, to the international context. In this way, Scottish Bronze Age studies can contribute to broader questions relating both to the Bronze Age and to human society in general.
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Transformational adaptation of key root and tuber crops in Asia: Assessing crop suitability amidst climate change by species distribution modelling. International Potato Center, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4160/9789290605300.

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