Journal articles on the topic 'Climatic change – Environmental aspects – Australia'

This article discusses how issue framing and nondecision-making shaped Australia's response to global climate change between 1996 and 2007. The complex and multi-dimensional nature of global climate change enabled state and non-state actors to selectively highlight certain aspects of the issue, thereby framing it as a specific problem with corresponding solutions. The case of Australia provides an interesting example of how such conscious framing, together with underlying institutional biases, may suppress important aspects of global climate change and ensure they are kept off the political agenda. This article unravels four narratives that are evident in the former Australian Government's framing of global climate change during this period. The nondecisions which are embedded within these narratives have important normative implications which will be explored.

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the greatest economic, social, and environmental challenges now facing the world. The present Australian Government is committed to acting on climate change and Australia’s progress towards its emissions reduction targets is being closely watched internationally. To contribute effectively to global climate change action, Australia must demonstrate its ability to implement robust and sustainable domestic emissions management legislation. The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), modelled after the cap-and-trade system, continues to be debated by our policymakers, as the Government moves to re-introduce its preferred CPRS legislative package for the third time. The advent of climate change legislation is inevitable and its impact will be far-reaching. This paper reviews the fiscal aspects of the proposed CPRS legislation in the context of the oil and gas industry, and whether it is conducive to creating incentives for appropriate climate change response by the industry. In particular, this paper will consider: the direct and indirect tax features specifically covered in the proposed CPRS legislation and their implications; the areas of taxation that remain uncanvassed in the proposed CPRS legislation and aspects requiring clarification from the tax administration; the interaction between Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) and the CPRS measures; the flow-on impacts to taxation outcomes resulting from proposed accounting and financial reporting responses to the CPRS legislation; the income tax and PRRT treatment of selected abatement measures; and, elements of a good CPRS tax strategy and compliance action plan.

Orchids are generally regarded as plants with an insignificant invasive potential and so far only one species has proved to be harmful for native flora. However, previous studies on Epipactis helleborine and Arundina graminifolia indicate that the ecological aspects of range extension in their non-native geographical range are not the same for all species of orchids. Disa bracteata in its native range, South Africa, is categorized as of little concern in terms of conservation whereas in Australia it is naturalized and considered to be an environmental weed. The aim of this research was to determine the ecological preferences enabling the spread of Disa bracteata in Western and South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania and to evaluate the effect of future climate change on its potential range. The ecological niche modeling approach indicates that most of the accessible areas are already occupied by this species but future expansion will continue based on four climate change scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85). Further expansion is predicted especially in eastern Australia and eastern Tasmania. Moreover, there are some unpopulated but suitable habitats in New Zealand, which according to climate change scenarios will become even more suitable in the future. The most striking result of this study is the significant difference between the environmental conditions recorded in the areas which D. bracteata naturally inhabits and invasive sites—that indicates a possible niche shift. In Australia the studied species continues to populate a new niche or exploit habitats that are only moderately represented in South Africa.

Since conclusion of the Paris Agreement and the high-profile Urgenda case, potential new avenues for strategic climate litigation have received considerable attention in many countries, including Australia. Australia already has a substantial climate jurisprudence, primarily involving administrative challenges under environmental laws. This paper aims to examine the prospects for a “next generation” of cases focused on holding governments and corporations to account for the climate change implications of their actions. We draw on analysis of existing legal precedent and emerging cases to explore four key aspects: drivers for next generation lawsuits, potential legal avenues, and likely enablers and barriers. The paper uses the Australian experience as a case study but draws also on litigation trends globally. We find that the most fruitful strategy for future climate change litigation is likely to be one that advances lower risk cases building from the base of existing litigation, while simultaneously attempting novel approaches. Desde los Acuerdos de París y el caso Urgenda, varios países han prestado mayor atención a los litigios estratégicos sobre el clima. Australia ya tiene una notable jurisprudencia sobre el clima, especialmente en cuanto a los desafíos que para la administración suponen las leyes ambientales. Este artículo analiza las posibilidades de una “nueva generación” de casos basados en pedir responsabilidades gubernamentales y empresariales. Partimos de antecedentes jurídicos y de casos emergentes para explorar cuatro cuestiones claves: los motores para demandas judiciales, posibles vías legales, y capacitadores y obstáculos probables. Se usa la experiencia de Australia como estudio de caso, pero también se traen a colación tendencias judiciales globales. Hallamos que la estrategia más provechosa es propulsar casos de menor riesgo desde la base de los litigios existentes, a la vez que ensayar nuevos abordajes.

Droughts can cause significant damage to agriculture and water resources leading to severe economic losses. One of the most important aspects of drought management is to develop useful tools to forecast drought events, which could be helpful in mitigation strategies. The recent global trends in drought events reveal that climate change would be a dominant factor in influencing such events. The present study aims to understand this effect for the New South Wales (NSW) region of Australia, which has suffered from several droughts in recent decades. The understanding of the drought is usually carried out using a drought index, therefore the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) was chosen as it uses both rainfall and temperature parameters in its calculation and has proven to better reflect drought. The drought index was calculated at various time scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) using a Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. The study focused on predicting the temporal aspect of the drought index using 13 different variables, of which eight were climatic drivers and sea surface temperature indices, and the remainder were various meteorological variables. The models used for forecasting were an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). The model was trained from 1901–2010 and tested for nine years (2011–2018), using three different performance metric scores (coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicate that ANN was better than SVR in predicting temporal drought trends, with the highest R2 value of 0.86 for the former compared to 0.75 for the latter. The study also reveals that sea surface temperatures and the climatic index (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) do not have a significant effect on the temporal drought aspect. The present work can be considered as a first step, wherein we only study the temporal trends, towards the use of climatological variables and drought incidences for the NSW region.

Water is a principal medium of exchange within communities facing changing climate patterns and the ‘new dry’. For some parts of the globe water has been taken-for-granted, uncontested, yet for others highly variable, scarce and a measure of global and national inequalities. Australia as a large and diverse landmass is emblematic of those varied water contexts, yet as a whole, and after the recent ‘100-year drought’, water has become heavily regulated and marketised, and its material and symbolic meanings transformed. This has led us to ask: “What happens when water becomes marked or recognised as a scarce resource for all, indeed a site of contest and potential human conflict? How do the attempts to control water, through its market currency and environmental value, change the character of communities, the identities and interpersonal relationships that constitute the regional context?” After all, water is about far more than a material resource, it is also a cultural medium that is implicated the most fundamental aspects of life. In this study we explore the ways in which South Australian's living in the arid north of the state, above the Goyder Line, live and identify through the changing relations of water. Those changing relations are the changing availability and governance of water, nested within an ever-present public concern about climate change. We draw upon interviews with settler community members from a 200 square kilometre region across 7 towns or stations. Alongside the growing dry has been the developing commodification of water, having the effect of reducing local autonomy in the management and decision making about water conservation, supply and use. This paper considers the ways that these changes have transformative effects upon the differences and solidarities within local community relations.

With the frequent occurrence of extreme climates around the world, the frequency of regional wildfires is also on the rise, which poses a serious threat to the safety of human life, property, and regional ecosystems. To investigate the role of extreme climates in the occurrence and spread of wildfires, we combined precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture (SM), maximum temperature (MT), relative humidity, plant canopy water, vapor pressure deficit, and a combined hydrological drought index based on six Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on (GRACE-FO) products to study the relationship between climate change and wildfires across Australia between 2003 and 2020. The results show that Australia’s wildfires are mainly concentrated in the northern region, with a small number being distributed along the southeastern coast. The high burned months are September (2.5941 × 106 ha), October (4.9939 × 106 ha), and November (3.8781 × 106 ha), while the years with a larger burned area are 2011 (79.95 × 106 ha) and 2012 (78.33 × 106 ha) during the study period. On a seasonal scale, the terrestrial water storage change and the hydrometeorological factors have the strong correlations with burned area, while for only the drought index, SM and MT are strongly related to burned area on an interannual scale. By comparing the data between the high burned and normal years, the impact of droughts on wildfires is achieved through two aspects: (1) the creation of a dry atmospheric environment, and (2) the accumulation of natural combustibles. Extreme climates affect wildfires through the occurrence of droughts. Among them, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has the greatest impact on drought in Australia, followed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (correlation coefficients are −0.33, −0.31, and −0.23, respectively), but there is little difference among the three. The proposed hydrological drought index in our study has the potential to provide an early warning of regional wildfires. Our results have a certain reference significance for comprehensively understanding the impact mechanism of extreme climates on regional wildfires and for establishing an early warning system for regional wildfires.

This article analyses the representation of environmental crisis and climate crisis in Carpentaria (2006) and The Swan Book (2013) by Indigenous Australian writer Alexis Wright. Building upon the groundbreaking work of environmental humanities scholars such as Heise (2008), Clark (2015), Trexler (2015) and Ghosh (2016), who have emphasised the main challenges faced by authors of climate fiction, it considers the novels as an entry point to address the climate-related crisis of culture – while acknowledging the problematic aspects of reading Indigenous texts as antidotes to the 'great derangement’ – and the danger of a singular Anthropocene narrative that silences the ‘unevenly universal’ (Nixon, 2011) responsibilities and vulnerabilities to environmental harm. Exploring themes such as environmental racism, ecological imperialism, and the slow violence of climate change, it suggests that Alexis Wright’s novels are of utmost importance for global conversations about the Anthropocene and its literary representations, as they bring the unevenness of environmental and climate crisis to visibility.

AbstractSediments began accumulating in nine mires on Barrington Tops, on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, before 11,000 yr B.P., and peat became common in the region by 8600 yr B.P. Sedimentation rates were low, but increased markedly about 3000 yr B.P. and again around 500 yr B.P. as a result of regional climatic change. A comparison of the results with other environmental data from the region suggests that conditions in the early Holocene were warmer and moister than at present, but that cooler and drier environments developed about 3000 yr B.P. In the last 500 yr a slight warming and either increased precipitation or cloudiness has become evident.

The agriculture sector in northern Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Climate change risks for future agricultural development include higher atmospheric temperature, increased rainfall variability and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves and fires. An uncertain future climate can affect agricultural production, efficient resource use and sustainable livelihoods. A balance needs to be achieved between resource use and livelihood security for sustainable agricultural development amid stressors such as climate change. This paper examines sustainable agricultural development in northern Australia using the environmental livelihood framework, a new approach that explores the relationships between water, energy and food resources and the livelihoods they sustain. The study shows that developments in the renewable energy sector, water infrastructure sector and advances in research and development for climate resilient infrastructure and climate resilient species are likely to improve agricultural production in northern Australia. Measures to attract and retain agricultural workforce is also key to maintaining a sustainable agricultural workforce in northern Australia. Adequate monitoring and evaluation of agricultural investments is important as future climatic impacts remain uncertain.

Since the 1960s, Australian scientists have speculated on the impact of human arrival on fire regimes in Australia, and on the relationship of landscape fire to extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna of Australia. These speculations have produced a series of contrasting hypotheses that can now be tested using evidence collected over the past two decades. In the present paper, I summarise those hypotheses and review that evidence. The main conclusions of this are that (1) the effects of people on fire regimes in the Pleistocene were modest at the continental scale, and difficult to distinguish from climatic controls on fire, (2) the arrival of people triggered extinction of Australia’s megafauna, but fire had little or no role in the extinction of those animals, which was probably due primarily to hunting and (3) megafaunal extinction is likely to have caused a cascade of changes that included increased fire, but only in some environments. We do not yet understand what environmental factors controlled the strength and nature of cascading effects of megafaunal extinction. This is an important topic for future research.

The article presents overview of environmental and climatic, economic and migration situations in the countries of Oceania. In order to determine the relation of environmental and climatic changes and migration processes in the island states and territories of Oceania, New Zealand and Australia, analytical reports and censuses of the population of the states, estimates and statistics of international organizations are studied. The article analyses the state policy of island states and territories in the field of sustainable development and migration, as well as immigration policies of the main host countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA. It was found that internal and external migration in Oceania is mainly driven by socio-economic factors (problems with employment, education and medical services), while internal migration is usually directed to urban area, and external - from the city to foreign countries. Exploring the peculiarities of climate change and natural phenomena and their impact on the livelihoods of people in the region of Oceania, we can conclude that natural and climatic influences directly and indirectly affect different spheres of life of the local population. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change and natural phenomena on the migration of the population of Oceania at the moment is insignificant (no more than 10-12% of international flows), however, in the case of an increase in the intensity and frequency of na- tural disasters, and also due to an increase in the number and density of population (71 million people will live in the region to 2100) an increase in the flow of environmental migrants is inevitable.

The purpose of this article was to explore the impacts of climate change on human health in Australia in general, and the state of Queensland in particular. We evaluated health-related services and adaptation challenges in the health sector and indicate possible remedies. The scientific consensus on the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is convincing. Climate change will have potentially devastating human health effects including increased morbidity, mortality and injury in the near future. Its impacts will be unevenly distributed among geographical regions and population groups. The elderly, children and people who are chronically ill and economically disadvantaged will be more vulnerable than others. Adaptation is a valuable tool for minimizing the effects of climate change on human health, but the mechanisms involve various societal, cultural, economic, political, environmental, information and technological challenges that need to be addressed rigorously and cautiously. Developing and designing appropriate healthcare systems to meet the challenges involved with adaptation is equally important in reducing the health effects of climate variability. There is an increased need for information about climatic impacts on human health and a need to increase institutional capacity, social and human capital, leadership, communication and partnerships as well as promoting stakeholders’ engagement in the adaptation processes in order to ensure success.

This study estimates the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Australia. We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data from 1999 to 2014 for six Australian states and one territory. The results reveal significant variations in electricity demand. We then used long-term coefficients for climatic response to simulate future electricity demand using four scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our results show a gradual increase in electricity consumption due to warmer temperatures with the possibility of peak demand in winter; however, demand tends to decrease in the middle of the twenty-first century across the RCPs, while the summer peak load increases by the end of the century. Finally, we simulated the impact of policy uncertainty through sensitivity analysis and confirmed the potential benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental challenges of the 21<sup<st</sup< century, accentuated by deforestation and the degradation of habitats. Changes in vital aspects such as temperature, the amount and distribution of rainfall or the frequency of extreme meteorological phenomena will probably negatively affect ecosystems. The possibilities of invasion will predictably increase, being endemic species especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Invasive species are extremely adaptable to climate variability, as evidenced by their current large latitudinal ranges. Generally, invasive plants also have rapid dispersal characteristics, allowing them to vary their ranges in response to changing climatic conditions rapidly. As a result, these species could become more dominant in many areas under changing climatic conditions. In many situations, the environmental stress generated by climate change and invasive plants are synergistic: invasive species can exacerbate the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, and in the same way, climate change can allow new invasions.

The incorporation of sown pastures as short-term rotations into the cropping systems of northern Australia has been slow. The inherent chemical fertility and physical stability of the predominant vertisol soils across the region enabled farmers to grow crops for decades without nitrogen fertiliser, and precluded the evolution of a crop–pasture rotation culture. However, as less fertile and less physically stable soils were cropped for extended periods, farmers began to use contemporary farming and sown pasture technologies to rebuild and maintain their soils. This has typically involved sowing long-term grass and grass–legume pastures on the more marginal cropping soils of the region. In partnership with the catchment management authority, the Queensland Murray–Darling Committee (QMDC) and Landcare, a pasture extension process using the LeyGrain™ package was implemented in 2006 within two Grain & Graze projects in the Maranoa-Balonne and Border Rivers catchments in southern inland Queensland. The specific objectives were to increase the area sown to high quality pasture and to gain production and environmental benefits (particularly groundcover) through improving the skills of producers in pasture species selection, their understanding and management of risk during pasture establishment, and in managing pastures and the feed base better. The catalyst for increasing pasture sowings was a QMDC subsidy scheme for increasing groundcover on old cropping land. In recognising a need to enhance pasture knowledge and skills to implement this scheme, the QMDC and Landcare producer groups sought the involvement of, and set specific targets for, the LeyGrain workshop process. This is a highly interactive action learning process that built on the existing knowledge and skills of the producers. Thirty-four workshops were held with more than 200 producers in 26 existing groups and with private agronomists. An evaluation process assessed the impact of the workshops on the learning and skill development by participants, their commitment to practice change, and their future intent to sow pastures. The results across both project catchments were highly correlated. There was strong agreement by producers (>90%) that the workshops had improved knowledge and skills regarding the adaptation of pasture species to soils and climates, enabling a better selection at the paddock level. Additional strong impacts were in changing the attitudes of producers to all aspects of pasture establishment, and the relative species composition of mixtures. Producers made a strong commitment to practice change, particularly in managing pasture as a specialist crop at establishment to minimise risk, and in the better selection and management of improved pasture species (particularly legumes and the use of fertiliser). Producers have made a commitment to increase pasture sowings by 80% in the next 5 years, with fourteen producers in one group alone having committed to sow an additional 4893 ha of pasture in 2007–08 under the QMDC subsidy scheme. The success of the project was attributed to the partnership between QMDC and Landcare groups who set individual workshop targets with LeyGrain presenters, the interactive engagement processes within the workshops themselves, and the follow-up provided by the LeyGrain team for on-farm activities.

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named “Index of Human Vulnerability” and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.

Queensland, Australia has a subtropical-tropical climate with dry winters and wet monsoonal summers. Arid climatic conditions prevail inland with hot dry days and cold nights. The climatic conditions are conducive to high plant growth rates and hence offer great potential for constructed wetlands for water pollution control. The water (a scarce resource during the dry season and in arid regions) can also be used to irrigate crops, playing fields, parks and gardens or golf courses. The water discharged from the wetlands is also of an acceptable quality to flow into estuarine and riverine environments. Many natural wetlands are only seasonally inundated and during the dry season wildlife has to seek alternative refuges. Artificial wetlands receiving sewage effluent provide permanent wildlife habitats and improve the landscape amenity. The Queensland government's Department of Primary Industries has initiated an Artificial Wetlands for Water Pollution Research Program. Under this scheme 10 experimental pilot artificial wetlands have been established and a further 6 university research projects are being conducted on various aspects of artificial wetlands including nutrient and heavy metal uptake and bioavailability in wetland plants, sediment biogeochemistry and mass balances. One gold mine rehabilitation project has an artificial wetland to treat mine leachate. This paper presents 3 case studies which include significant results with respect to wastewater polishing and re-use.

Climate change is a great impact on Fiji&rsquo;s ecosystem including animal (livestock and marine) and crop production from past decades and still possesses a large effect on their economy as well. These climatic events include flooding, rise in ambient temperature, rise in the sea level, droughts, tropical cyclones, and all others that bring large changes to the environmental system. These large changes adversely affect animal production and its economy in Fiji. Not only this, individuals that are linked to animal production are also affected through climatic conditions such as loss of income and livestock species that die out during cyclones and other aspects. Not only the terrestrial species but the marine organisms are also affected since climatic changes bring alterations to their feeding period and the mating time leading to a vast decrease in organisms&rsquo; health, quality, and population. Consequently, the Fijian government and other Pacific organizations have brought strategies like adaptation plans to implement in animal production sectors. These plans and methods will help farmers in stimulating their farming systems and adapting to climatic changes and hence, this will lead to increased productivity and economy. The aim and objective of this review are to define and elaborate the climatic change effects on livestock and marine production in Fiji and effective solutions adapted by Fiji and other Pacific governments to refrain from adverse climate conditions.

The paper contains the results of studying the conditions, processes and tools for the digitali-zation of agriculture in Japan, South Korea and Australia, which have common soil and climatic conditions and specialization in production with some regions of Russia, the identity of the problems in the implementa-tion of digital transformations. As a result, the most relevant solutions for Russia were identified in the state strategy for the digitalization of the industry in the aspects of collaboration between science, education and production, areas of state support.

Abstract. Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realisations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

This paper is meant to study the apocalyptic scenario of the at the perspectives of the Great Acceleration. the apocalyptic scenario is not a pure imagination of the literature works. Instead, scientific evidences are in favour of dramatic change in the climatic conditions related to the climax of Man actions. the modelling of the future climate leads to horrible situations including intolerable temperatures, dryness, tornadoes, and noticeable sear level rise evading coastal regions. Going far from these scientific claims, Homo Sapiens Sapiens extended his imagination through the Climate-Fiction (cli-fi) to propose a dramatic end. Climate Fiction is developed into a recording machine containing every kind of fictions that depict environmental condition events and has consequently lost its true significance. Introduction The Great Acceleration may be considered as the Late Anthropocene in which Man actions reached their climax to lead to dramatic climatic changes paving the way for a possible apocalyptic scenario threatening the existence of the humanity. So, the apocalyptic scenario is not a pure imagination of the literature works. Instead, many scientific arguments especially related to climate change are in favour of the apocalypse1. As a matter of fact, the modelling of the future climate leads to horrible situations including intolerable temperatures (In 06/07/2021, Kuwait recorded the highest temperature of 53.2 °C), dryness, tornadoes, and noticeable sear level rise evading coastal regions. These conditions taking place during the Great Acceleration would have direct repercussions on the human species. Considering that the apocalyptic extinction had really caused the disappearance of many stronger species including dinosaurs, Homo Sapiens Sapiens extended his imagination though the Climate-Fiction (cli-fi) to propose a dramatic end due to severe climate conditions intolerable by the humankind. The mass extinction of animal species has occurred several times over the geological ages. Researchers have a poor understanding of the causes and processes of these major crises1. Nonetheless, whatever the cause of extinction, the apocalyptic scenario has always been present in the geological history. For example, dinosaurs extinction either by asteroids impact or climate changes could by no means denies the apocalyptic aspect2.At the same time as them, many animal and plant species became extinct, from marine or flying reptiles to marine plankton. This biological crisis of sixty-five million years ago is not the only one that the biosphere has suffered. It was preceded and followed by other crises which caused the extinction or the rarefaction of animal species. So, it is undeniable that many animal groups have disappeared. It is even on the changes of fauna that the geologists of the last century have based themselves to establish the scale of geological times, scale which is still used. But it is no less certain that the extinction processes, extremely complex, are far from being understood. We must first agree on the meaning of the word "extinction", namely on the apocalyptic aspect of the concept. It is quite understood that, without disappearances, the evolution of species could not have followed its course. Being aware that the apocalyptic extinction had massacred stronger species that had dominated the planet, Homo Sapiens Sapiens has been aware that the possibility of apocalyptic end at the perspective of the Anthropocene (i.e., Great Acceleration) could not be excluded. This conviction is motivated by the progressive defaunation in some regions3and the appearance of alien species in others related to change of mineralogy and geochemistry4 leading to a climate change during the Anthropocene. These scientific claims fed the vast imagination about climate change to set the so-called cli-fi. The concept of the Anthropocene is the new geological era which begins when the Man actions have reached a sufficient power to modify the geological processes and climatic cycles of the planet5. The Anthropocene by no means excludes the possibility of an apocalyptic horizon, namely in the perspectives of the Great Acceleration. On the contrary, two scenarios do indeed seem to dispute the future of the Anthropocene, with a dramatic cross-charge. The stories of the end of the world are as old as it is, as the world is the origin of these stories. However, these stories of the apocalypse have evolved over time and, since the beginning of the 19th century, they have been nourished particularly by science and its advances. These fictions have sometimes tried to pass themselves off as science. This is the current vogue, called collapsology6. This end is more than likely cli-fi driven7and it may cause the extinction of the many species including the Homo Sapiens Sapiens. In this vein, Anthropocene defaunation has become an ultimate reality8. More than one in eight birds, more than one in five mammals, more than one in four coniferous species, one in three amphibians are threatened. The hypothesis of a hierarchy within the living is induced by the error of believing that evolution goes from the simplest to the most sophisticated, from the inevitably stupid inferior to the superior endowed with an intelligence giving prerogative to all powers. Evolution goes in all directions and pursues no goal except the extension of life on Earth. Evolution certainly does not lead from bacteria to humans, preferably male and white. Our species is only a carrier of the DNA that precedes us and that will survive us. Until we show a deep respect for the biosphere particularly, and our planet in general, we will not become much, we will remain a predator among other predators, the fiercest of predators, the almighty craftsman of the Anthropocene. To be in the depths of our humanity, somehow giving back to the biosphere what we have taken from it seems obvious. To stop the sixth extinction of species, we must condemn our anthropocentrism and the anthropization of the territories that goes with it. The other forms of life also need to keep their ecological niches. According to the first, humanity seems at first to withdraw from the limits of the planet and ultimately succumb to them, with a loss of dramatic meaning. According to the second, from collapse to collapse, it is perhaps another humanity, having overcome its demons, that could come. Climate fiction is a literary sub-genre dealing with the theme of climate change, including global warming. The term appears to have been first used in 2008 by blogger and writer Dan Bloom. In October 2013, Angela Evancie, in a review of the novel Odds against Tomorrow, by Nathaniel Rich, wonders if climate change has created a new literary genre. Scientific basis of the apocalyptic scenario in the perspective of the Anthropocene Global warming All temperature indices are in favour of a global warming (Fig.1). According to the different scenarios of the IPCC9, the temperatures of the globe could increase by 2 °C to 5 °C by 2100. But some scientists warn about a possible runaway of the warming which can reach more than 3 °C. Thus, the average temperature on the surface of the globe has already increased by more than 1.1 °C since the pre-industrial era. The rise in average temperatures at the surface of the globe is the first expected and observed consequence of massive greenhouse gas emissions. However, meteorological surveys record positive temperature anomalies which are confirmed from year to year compared to the temperatures recorded since the middle of the 19th century. Climatologists point out that the past 30 years have seen the highest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere for over 1,400 years. Several climatic centres around the world record, synthesize and follow the evolution of temperatures on Earth. Since the beginning of the 20th century (1906-2005), the average temperature at the surface of the globe has increased by 0.74 °C, but this progression has not been continuous since 1976, the increase has clearly accelerated, reaching 0.19 °C per decade according to model predictions. Despite the decline in solar activity, the period 1997-2006 is marked by an average positive anomaly of 0.53 °C in the northern hemisphere and 0.27 °C in the southern hemisphere, still compared to the normal calculated for 1961-1990. The ten hottest years on record are all after 1997. Worse, 14 of the 15 hottest years are in the 21st century, which has barely started. Thus, 2016 is the hottest year, followed closely by 2015, 2014 and 2010. The temperature of tropical waters increased by 1.2 °C during the 20th century (compared to 0.5 °C on average for the oceans), causing coral reefs to bleach in 1997. In 1998, the period of Fort El Niño, the prolonged warming of the water has destroyed half of the coral reefs of the Indian Ocean. In addition, the temperature in the tropics of the five ocean basins, where cyclones form, increased by 0.5 °C from 1970 to 2004, and powerful cyclones appeared in the North Atlantic in 2005, while they were more numerous in other parts of the world. Recently, mountains of studies focused on the possible scenario of climate change and the potential worldwide repercussions including hell temperatures and apocalyptic extreme events10 , 11, 12. Melting of continental glaciers As a direct result of the global warming, melting of continental glaciers has been recently noticed13. There are approximately 198,000 mountain glaciers in the world; they cover an area of approximately 726,000 km2. If they all melted, the sea level would rise by about 40 cm. Since the late 1960s, global snow cover has declined by around 10 to 15%. Winter cold spells in much of the northern half of the northern hemisphere are two weeks shorter than 100 years ago. Glaciers of mountains have been declining all over the world by an average of 50 m per decade for 150 years. However, they are also subject to strong multi-temporal variations which make forecasts on this point difficult according to some specialists. In the Alps, glaciers have been losing 1 meter per year for 30 years. Polar glaciers like those of Spitsbergen (about a hundred km from the North Pole) have been retreating since 1880, releasing large quantities of water. The Arctic has lost about 10% of its permanent ice cover every ten years since 1980. In this region, average temperatures have increased at twice the rate of elsewhere in the world in recent decades. The melting of the Arctic Sea ice has resulted in a loss of 15% of its surface area and 40% of its thickness since 1979. The record for melting arctic sea ice was set in 2017. All models predict the disappearance of the Arctic Sea ice in summer within a few decades, which will not be without consequences for the climate in Europe. The summer melting of arctic sea ice accelerated far beyond climate model predictions. Added to its direct repercussions of coastal regions flooding, melting of continental ice leads to radical climatic modifications in favour of the apocalyptic scenario. Fig.1 Evolution of temperature anomaly from 1880 to 2020: the apocalyptic scenario Sea level rise As a direct result of the melting of continental glaciers, sea level rise has been worldwide recorded14 ,15. The average level of the oceans has risen by 22 cm since 1880 and 2 cm since the year 2000 because of the melting of the glaciers but also with the thermal expansion of the water. In the 20th century, the sea level rose by around 2 mm per year. From 1990 to 2017, it reached the relatively constant rate of just over 3mm per year. Several sources contributed to sea level increase including thermal expansion of water (42%), melting of continental glaciers (21%), melting Greenland glaciers (15%) and melting Antarctic glaciers (8%). Since 2003, there has always been a rapid rise (around 3.3 mm / year) in sea level, but the contribution of thermal expansion has decreased (0.4 mm / year) while the melting of the polar caps and continental glaciers accelerates. Since most of the world’s population is living on coastal regions, sea level rise represents a real threat for the humanity, not excluding the apocalyptic scenario. Multiplication of extreme phenomena and climatic anomalies On a human scale, an average of 200 million people is affected by natural disasters each year and approximately 70,000 perish from them. Indeed, as evidenced by the annual reviews of disasters and climatic anomalies, we are witnessing significant warning signs. It is worth noting that these observations are dependent on meteorological survey systems that exist only in a limited number of countries with statistics that rarely go back beyond a century or a century and a half. In addition, scientists are struggling to represent the climatic variations of the last two thousand years which could serve as a reference in the projections. Therefore, the exceptional nature of this information must be qualified a little. Indeed, it is still difficult to know the return periods of climatic disasters in each region. But over the last century, the climate system has gone wild. Indeed, everything suggests that the climate is racing. Indeed, extreme events and disasters have become more frequent. For instance, less than 50 significant events were recorded per year over the period 1970-1985, while there have been around 120 events recorded since 1995. Drought has long been one of the most worrying environmental issues. But while African countries have been the main affected so far, the whole world is now facing increasingly frequent and prolonged droughts. Chile, India, Australia, United States, France and even Russia are all regions of the world suffering from the acceleration of the global drought. Droughts are slowly evolving natural hazards that can last from a few months to several decades and affect larger or smaller areas, whether they are small watersheds or areas of hundreds of thousands of square kilometres. In addition to their direct effects on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems, droughts can cause fires or heat waves. They also promote the proliferation of invasive species, creating environments with multiple risks, worsening the consequences on ecosystems and societies, and increasing their vulnerability. Although these are natural phenomena, there is a growing understanding of how humans have amplified the severity and impacts of droughts, both on the environment and on people. We influence meteorological droughts through our action on climate change, and we influence hydrological droughts through our management of water circulation and water processes at the local scale, for example by diverting rivers or modifying land use. During the Anthropocene (the present period when humans exert a dominant influence on climate and environment), droughts are closely linked to human activities, cultures, and responses. From this scientific overview, it may be concluded apocalyptic scenario is not only a literature genre inspired from the pure imagination. Instead, many scientific arguments are in favour of this dramatic destiny of Homo Sapiens Sapiens. Fig.2. Sea level rise from 1880 to 2020: a possible apocalyptic scenario (www.globalchange.gov, 2021) Apocalyptic genre in recent writing As the original landmark of apocalyptic writing, we must place the destruction of the Temple of Jerusalem in 587 BC and the Exile in Babylon. Occasion of a religious and cultural crossing with imprescriptible effects, the Exile brought about a true rebirth, characterized by the maintenance of the essential ethical, even cultural, of a national religion, that of Moses, kept as pure as possible on a foreign land and by the reinterpretation of this fundamental heritage by the archaic return of what was very old, both national traditions and neighbouring cultures. More precisely, it was the place and time for the rehabilitation of cultures and the melting pot for recasting ancient myths. This vast infatuation with Antiquity, remarkable even in the vocabulary used, was not limited to Israel: it even largely reflected a general trend. The long period that preceded throughout the 7th century BC and until 587, like that prior to the edict of Cyrus in 538 BC, was that of restorations and rebirths, of returns to distant sources and cultural crossings. In the biblical literature of this period, one is struck by the almost systematic link between, on the one hand, a very sustained mythical reinvestment even in form and, on the other, the frequent use of biblical archaisms. The example of Shadday, a word firmly rooted in the Semites of the Northwest and epithet of El in the oldest layers of the books of Genesis and Exodus, is most eloquent. This term reappears precisely at the time of the Exile as a designation of the divinity of the Patriarchs and of the God of Israel; Daily, ecological catastrophes now describe the normal state of societies exposed to "risks", in the sense that Ulrich Beck gives to this term: "the risk society is a society of catastrophe. The state of emergency threatens to become a normal state there1”. Now, the "threat" has become clearer, and catastrophic "exceptions" are proliferating as quickly as species are disappearing and climate change is accelerating. The relationship that we have with this worrying reality, to say the least, is twofold: on the one hand, we know very well what is happening to us; on the other hand, we fail to draw the appropriate theoretical and political consequences. This ecological duplicity is at the heart of what has come to be called the “Anthropocene”, a term coined at the dawn of the 21st century by Eugene Stoermer (an environmentalist) and Paul Crutzen (a specialist in the chemistry of the atmosphere) in order to describe an age when humanity would have become a "major geological force" capable of disrupting the climate and changing the terrestrial landscape from top to bottom. If the term “Anthropocene” takes note of human responsibility for climate change, this responsibility is immediately attributed to overpowering: strong as we are, we have “involuntarily” changed the climate for at least two hundred and fifty years. Therefore, let us deliberately change the face of the Earth, if necessary, install a solar shield in space. Recognition and denial fuel the signifying machine of the Anthropocene. And it is precisely what structures eco-apocalyptic cinema that this article aims to study. By "eco-apocalyptic cinema", we first mean a cinematographic sub-genre: eco-apocalyptic and post-eco-apocalyptic films base the possibility (or reality) of the end of the world on environmental grounds and not, for example, on damage caused by the possible collision of planet Earth with a comet. Post-apocalyptic science fiction (sometimes abbreviated as "post-apo" or "post-nuke") is a sub-genre of science fiction that depicts life after a disaster that destroyed civilization: nuclear war, collision with a meteorite, epidemic, economic or energy crisis, pandemic, alien invasion. Conclusion Climate and politics have been linked together since Aristotle. With Montesquieu, Ibn Khaldûn or Watsuji, a certain climatic determinism is attributed to the character of a nation. The break with modernity made the climate an object of scientific knowledge which, in the twentieth century, made it possible to document, despite the controversies, the climatic changes linked to industrialization. Both endanger the survival of human beings and ecosystems. Climate ethics are therefore looking for a new relationship with the biosphere or Gaia. For some, with the absence of political agreements, it is the beginning of inevitable catastrophes. For others, the Anthropocene, which henceforth merges human history with natural history, opens onto technical action. The debate between climate determinism and human freedom is revived. The reference to the biblical Apocalypse was present in the thinking of thinkers like Günther Anders, Karl Jaspers or Hans Jonas: the era of the atomic bomb would mark an entry into the time of the end, a time marked by the unprecedented human possibility of 'total war and annihilation of mankind. The Apocalypse will be very relevant in describing the chaos to come if our societies continue their mad race described as extra-activist, productivist and consumerist. In dialogue with different theologians and philosophers (such as Jacques Ellul), it is possible to unveil some spiritual, ethical, and political resources that the Apocalypse offers for thinking about History and human engagement in the Anthropocene. What can a theology of collapse mean at a time when negative signs and dead ends in the human situation multiply? What then is the place of man and of the cosmos in the Apocalypse according to Saint John? Could the end of history be a collapse? How can we live in the time we have left before the disaster? Answers to such questions remain unknown and no scientist can predict the trajectory of this Great Acceleration taking place at the Late Anthropocene. When science cannot give answers, Man tries to infer his destiny for the legend, religion and the fiction. Climate Fiction is developed into a recording machine containing every kind of fictions that depict environmental condition events and has consequently lost its true significance. Aware of the prospect of ecological collapse additionally as our apparent inability to avert it, we tend to face geology changes of forceful proportions that severely challenge our ability to imagine the implications. Climate fiction ought to be considered an important supplement to climate science, as a result, climate fiction makes visible and conceivable future modes of existence inside worlds not solely deemed seemingly by science, however that area unit scientifically anticipated. Hence, this chapter, as part of the book itself, aims to contribute to studies of ecocriticism, the environmental humanities, and literary and culture studies. References David P.G. Bondand Stephen E. Grasby. "Late Ordovician mass extinction caused by volcanism, warming, and anoxia, not cooling and glaciation: REPLY." Geology 48, no. 8 (Geological Society of America2020): 510. Cyril Langlois.’Vestiges de l'apocalypse: ‘le site de Tanis, Dakota du Nord 2019’. Accessed June, 6, 2021, https://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/pdf/Tanis-extinction-K-Pg.pdf NajouaGharsalli,ElhoucineEssefi, Rana Baydoun, and ChokriYaich. ‘The Anthropocene and Great Acceleration as controversial epoch of human-induced activities: case study of the Halk El Menjel wetland, eastern Tunisia’. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 18(3) (Corvinus University of Budapest 2020): 4137-4166 Elhoucine Essefi, ‘On the Geochemistry and Mineralogy of the Anthropocene’. International Journal of Water and Wastewater Treatment, 6(2). 1-14, (Sci Forschen2020): doi.org/10.16966/2381-5299.168 Elhoucine Essefi. ‘Record of the Anthropocene-Great Acceleration along a core from the coast of Sfax, southeastern Tunisia’. Turkish journal of earth science, (TÜBİTAK,2021). 1-16. Chiara Xausa. ‘Climate Fiction and the Crisis of Imagination: Alexis Wright’s Carpentaria and The Swan Book’. Exchanges: The Interdisciplinary Research Journal 8(2), (WARWICK 2021): 99-119. Akyol, Özlem. "Climate Change: An Apocalypse for Urban Space? An Ecocritical Reading of “Venice Drowned” and “The Tamarisk Hunter”." Folklor/Edebiyat 26, no. 101 (UluslararasıKıbrısÜniversitesi 2020): 115-126. Boswell, Suzanne F. "The Four Tourists of the Apocalypse: Figures of the Anthropocene in Caribbean Climate Fiction.". Paradoxa 31, (Academia 2020): 359-378. Ayt Ougougdal, Houssam, Mohamed YacoubiKhebiza, Mohammed Messouli, and Asia Lachir. 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Tasmania’s dry, inland east is ideally positioned to inform models of late Quaternary environmental change in southern Australasia. Despite this, it remains poorly represented in the palaeoecological record. Here, we seek to address this with a >13,000-year vegetation and fire history from Stoney Lagoon, a site at the eastern margin of Tasmania’s inland Midlands plains. Pollen and charcoal analysis indicates that here, a relatively moist early deglacial was followed by a dry later deglacial (ca. 14,000–12,000 cal. BP), when sclerophyll forests became well established and burning increased. This suggests that the Midlands’ vegetation responded to the climatic signals characterising Australia’s south-eastern coast rather than those governing developments in western Tasmania. Dry sclerophyll forest persisted throughout the Holocene; with a pronounced transition from more to less grassy understoreys between ca. 9000 and 7000 cal. BP. From the mid-Holocene, the sclerophyll community remains relatively stable. However, increased fire activity and trends in moisture-sensitive taxa suggest generally drier conditions coupled with greater hydroclimatic variability under the strengthening influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Overall, these results highlight the role of macro-scale climatic shifts in shaping vegetation development in Tasmania’s inland east, while hinting at the concurrent importance of local ecological drivers. This highlights the need for spatially diverse studies to understand interactions between drivers of long-term environmental change in sub-humid southern Australia. This research also supports conservation by strengthening understandings of pre-colonial baselines in this highly modified landscape.

The Holocene is recognised as a period through which a number of climatic fluctuations and environmental stresses occur—associated with intensifying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic conditions from c. 5000 years—contemporaneous with technological and social changes in Australian Aboriginal lifeways. In the Kimberley region of northwest Western Australia, human responses to ENSO driven climate change are most evident archaeologically in technological transformations observed in lithic records, with little research on changes in plant use during this time. Using nine archaeological sites across the Kimberley, this paper synthesises previously published macrobotanical data (Carpenter’s Gap 1, Moonggaroonggoo, Mount Behn, and Riwi), reports unpublished data (Brooking Gorge 1, Djuru, and Wandjina rockshelter), and presents results of sites reanalysed for this study (Widgingarri Shelters 1 and 2) to develop a picture of localised and regional patterns of plant use during the Holocene. We conclude that food plants associated with monsoon rainforest environments dominate both mid- and late Holocene macrobotanical records and, although monsoon rainforest likely retreated to some extent because of decreased precipitation during the late Holocene, no human responses associated with ENSO driven climate change occurred in relation to human uses of plants.

Australia’s future landscapes will be shaped by global climatic, economic, and cultural drivers. Landscapes evolve. They are manifestations of the complex negotiations between nature and cultures, over millennia. In the Anthropocene, humans are the dominant evolutionary force reshaping the biosphere. Landscape management involves all human activities and interventions that change the forms and functions of landscapes. It also involves the ways we learn about, and understand the world, and our place in it. Responses to climate change are driving changes in natural resources policy, research and management. Building capability for large-scale, adaptive management is critical in an era of global change. By rigorously examining and learning from recent experience—bioregional conservation planning, natural resource management (NRM), landcare, and water reform—Australia can build capacity for integrated and adaptive resource management. Climate change compounds existing stressors on ecosystems. It adds complexity and presents new challenges for integrated assessment, planning, and management of natural resources. Given the dynamic nature of the ecosystems, static conservation paradigms and stationary hydrology models are increasingly redundant. In the face of inherent complexity and uncertainty, ‘predict and control’ strategies are likely to be less useful. Adaptive approaches are called for, due to the complex relationships and non-linear feedbacks between social, ecological, and climatic systems. Australia should invest in building professional and community capacity. Australia’s scientific and professional capacity in natural resources provides useful foundations, but substantially increased investment is called for. Research should be focused on guiding and influencing management at large scales and on avoiding undesirable thresholds or tipping points in complex ecological systems. Cultural and governance aspects are emphasised as central to effective adaptation strategies, because landscape management is an intergenerational, societal challenge that requires participatory, adaptive learning approaches.

The Riverland Ramsar site in south-eastern Australia has Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) derived on the basis of hydrological regimes and vegetation requirements. This study evaluated LAC for the site against trajectories of environmental change including increasing river regulation and changing climate. The study identified a high likelihood of exceedances of the LAC from changed hydrologic regime and also from changing climate, with the combined influences increasing the likelihood of breaches. Regional climatic variations in the past call into question the concept of baseline conditions for this site and elsewhere, and suggest that management plans based on ecological variation around a point in time will be insufficient. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation enhancement, and regular reviews of site condition and regional significance are suggested components for future management of Ramsar sites.

Epidemiological environment (EE) could be denned as a set of conditions and processes, both physical and social, that influence the interaction between human beings and disease agents. The human epidemiological environment is shaped by various aspects of development and global change, viz. the influences of human population size, mobility, geographic distribution, urbanization, and nutrition status; modernization (macro-and microeconomic enterprise); loss of indigenous medicinal knowledge; microbial evolution of antibiotic resistance; land conversion and biodiversity loss; agricultural intensification; stratospheric ozone depletion; and climatic change (Daily and Ehrlich, 1995). Health status is affected greatly not only by economic development (e.g. by policies influencing per capita income and its distribution), but also through changes in EE.

The purpose of the article is to research the legal issues of forest protection in the Russian Federation in the context of global climate change taking into account international obligations under the Paris Agreement 2015 and the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use 2021. The sources of the research are legislative and other regulatory legal acts in the field of forestry relations, environmental and natural resource law, etc.The research methodology is based on scientific methods such as dialectical, logical, predictive, systems analysis, content analysis, as well as private scientific methods, such as statistical, technical and legal, comparative legal.

In Australia, the drivers of precolonial fire regimes remain contentious, with some advocating an anthropogenic-dominated regime, and others highlighting the importance of climate, climatic variability or alternatively some nexus between climate and human activity. Here, we explore the inter-relationships between fire, humans and vegetation using macroscopic charcoal, archaeology and palynology over the last ~5430 cal. year BP from Broughton Island, a small, near-shore island located in eastern Australia. We find a clear link between fire and the reduction of arboreal pollen and rainforest indicators on the island, especially at ~4.0 ka and in the last ~1000 years. Similarities with comparable palaeoenvironmental records of fire in the region and a record of strong El Niño (dry, fire-prone) events supports the contention that climate was a significant influence on the fire regimes of Broughton Island. However, two periods of enhanced fire activity, at ~4000 years BP and ~<600 years BP have weaker links to climate, and perhaps reflect anthropogenic activity. Changes to the fire regime in the last ~600 years corresponds with the earliest evidence of Indigenous archaeology on the island, and coincides with implications that Polynesian people were present in the region. After the mid-Twentieth Century a human-dominated fire regime is also an obvious feature of the reconstructed fire record on Broughton Island.

Climate change raises many concerns for urban water management because of the effects on all aspects of the hydrological cycle. Urban water infrastructure has traditionally been designed using historical observations and assuming stationary climatic conditions. The capability of this infrastructure, whether for storm-water drainage, or water supply, may be over- or under-designed for future climatic conditions. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will have the most acute effect on storm-water drainage systems. Therefore, it is necessary to take future climatic conditions into consideration in engineering designs in order to enhance water infrastructure investment planning practices in a long time horizon. This paper provides the initial results of a study that is examining ways to enhance urban infrastructure investment planning practices against changes in hydrologic regimes for a changing climate. Design storms and intensity–duration–frequency curves that are used in the engineering design of storm-water drainage systems are developed under future climatic conditions by empirically adjusting the general circulation model output, and using the Gumbel distribution and the Chicago method. Simulations are then performed on an existing storm-water drainage system from NE Calgary to investigate the resiliency of the system under climate change.

The article is devoted to identifying current trends in the transformation of environmental law due to the global, supranational nature of existing challenges and threats. The conse-quences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the largest oil and oil products spill in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and other negative events that occurred in 2020 showed the awareness of the globalization and vulnerability of the world, as well as the reality and inevitability of the coming environmental crises, risks and transformations. Despite the progressiveness and technological sophistication of Russian environmental law, the tightening of legal norms in the field of nature management, the reform of control and oversight activities, and the creation of special state management bodies in the field of environmental protection have failed to fully stop the deterioration of the natural environment and prevent environmental catastrophe. Climatic, land, water, biosphere, genomic and other parameters of human survival require a change in the very paradigm of environmental law, implementation of a new modern envi-ronmental policy, development of environmental regulations taking into account the best existing technologies, transition from the concept of "regulating the negative impact" of eco-nomic activity on the environment to a new concept of receiving "technological benefits from the use of environmental technologies". According to the authors, the transformation of environmental law is part of the natural process of its globalisation, "technologisation", and the creation of prerequisites for the transition to a full-fledged ecological economy of sustainable development.

AbstractA review of the palynofloral succession at the well-documented Triassic–Jurassic boundary sites – Kuhjoch (Austria), St Audrie's Bay (UK), Stenlille (Denmark), Astartekløft (Greenland), Sverdrup Basin (Arctic Canada), Northern Carnarvon Basin (Western Australia), Southeast Queensland (eastern Australia) and New Zealand – show all sites experienced major to moderate re-organization of the terrestrial vegetation during the end-Triassic event. The changes led to subsequent taxonomic losses of between 17% and 73% of the Rhaetian pre-extinction palynoflora. The majority of the typical Rhaetian taxa that disappear are so far not known fromin situoccurrences in reproductive structures of macrofossil plant taxa. From an ecological perspective, the most dramatic changes occurred in the Sverdrup Basin, Stenlille, Kuhjoch and Carnarvon Basin, where the pre- and post-extinction palynofloras were fundamentally different in both composition and dominance. These changes correspond to ecological severity Category I of McGheeet al.(2004), while the remaining sites are placed in their Subcategory IIa because there the pre-extinction ecosystems are disrupted, but recover and are not replaced post-extinction. Increased total abundances of spores on both hemispheres during the extinction and recovery intervals may indicate that environmental and/or climatic conditions became less favourable for seed plants. Such conditions may include expected effects of volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, such as acid rain, terrestrial soil and freshwater acidification due to volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions, fluctuating ultraviolet flux due to ozone depletion caused by halogens and halocarbon compounds, and drastic changes in climatic conditions due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods are expected to become more intense and severe under climate change, especially in the southern and eastern parts of Australia. We aimed to quantify the relationship between body condition scores (BCS), demography, activity rate, and parasitic infections of eastern grey kangaroos on a large conservation property under different climate extremes by employing camera traps established at artificial water points (AWPs). The survey period included a severe drought, broken by a significant flooding event. Climatic and environmental conditions were documented using remotely sensed indices of moisture availability and vegetation productivity. These conditions were found to affect all health and population parameters measured. BCS, juvenile proportions, and sex ratios were most correlated with 6-month lags in climatic conditions, while the activity rate of kangaroos at AWPs was most correlated with vegetation productivity. Ticks were mostly found on individuals with a poorer BCS, while the concentration of parasitic eggs in feces was higher in autumn than in spring. Our study offers a glimpse into some of the environmental drivers of eastern grey kangaroo populations and their health, information that may become increasingly important in today’s climate. It further emphasizes the importance of this knowledge for wildlife conservation efforts appropriate to managing the impact of climate change alongside other threats.

Natural populations of Echium plantagineum on an east-west line across south-eastern Australia were sampled on three occasions during the growing season, and seeds collected from individual plants in each population were grown in a common glasshouse. In another experiment seedlings of E. plantagineum were divided and clones from each plant were grown under two soil moisture regimes. Field populations differed significantly in all seven characters measured at all sampling dates but, with one exception, between-population differences were unrelated to five climatic indices. Glasshouse populations differed significantly in 15 of 27 characters; variations in some of these characters were related by regression analysis to one or more of the climatic indices. Clones grown under moisture stress flowered later, had proportionally wider leaves and were smaller than well watered clones. The data suggest that an ecocline has developed, or is developing, in E. plantagineum in south- eastern Australia in response to large-scale and long-term aspects of climate, although extensive genetic variation between individuals in each population was also observed. This species exhibits a great deal of phenotypic plasticity in response to localized environmental factors.

Environmental and climatic change has become a frequent motif in contemporary Norwegian literature, television and film, and Norway has the worldwide first organization of writers committed to climate action (The Norwegian Writers’ Climate Campaign, founded in 2013). In this article, we argue that Norwegian climate change fiction and related works draw on elements that relate to specific national and/or Nordic cultural, societal and historical aspects, and that these elements give these works their distinct identity. We focus on four such aspects: (1) references to Norwegian petroculture (since the Norwegian economy is largely based on the export of fossil fuels); (2) an (imagined) intimate connection between Norwegianness and nature, and thus of what often is seen as a typical element of Norwegian national identity; (3) notions of “Nordicity”, and (4) an atmosphere of gloom and melancholia in many of the works (which often has been ascribed to Nordic landscapes, and usually is characteristic for the genre of Nordic noir).

AbstractSeasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provide opportunities for pastoralists to align production decisions to climatic conditions, as SCFs offer economic value by increasing certainty about future climatic states at decision-making time. Insufficient evidence about the economic value of SCFs was identified as a major factor limiting adoption of SCFs in Australia and abroad. This study examines the value of SCFs to beef production system management in northern Australia by adopting a theoretical probabilistic climate forecast system. Stocking rate decisions in October, before the onset of the wet season, were identified by industry as a key climate sensitive decision. The analysis considered SCF value across economic drivers (steer price in October) and environmental drivers (October pasture availability). A range in forecast value was found ($0–$14 per head) dependent on pasture availability, beef price, and SCF skill. Skillful forecasts of future climate conditions offered little value with medium or high pasture availability, as in these circumstances pastures were rarely overutilized. In contrast, low pasture availability provided conditions for alternative optimal stocking rates and for SCFs to be valuable. Optimal stocking rates under low pasture availability varied the most with climate state (i.e., wet or dry), indicating that producers have more to gain from a skillful SCF at these times. Although the level of pasture availability in October was the major determinant of stocking rate decisions, beef price settings were also found to be important. This analysis provides insights into the potential value of SCFs to extensive beef enterprises and can be used by pastoralists to evaluate the cost benefit of using a SCF in annual management.

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) in subalpine zones of eastern California experienced significant mortality from 2007 to 2010. Dying stands were dense (mean basal area 47.5 m2/ha), young (mean 176 years), and even-age; mean stand mortality was 70%. Stands were at low elevations (mean 2993 m), on northerly aspects, and experienced warmer, drier climates relative to the regional species distribution. White pine blister rust was not observed; mountain pine beetle infestations were extensive. Ring widths were negatively correlated with climatic water deficit and positively correlated with water-year precipitation. Although trees that survived had greater growth during the 20th century than trees that died, in the 19th century trees that eventually died grew better than trees that survived, suggesting selection for genetic adaptation to current climates as a result of differential tree mortality. Air surveys (2006–2010) in the Sierra Nevada, Mt. Shasta, and Warner Mountains showed similar trends to the intensive studies. Observed mortality from air surveys was highest in the Warner Mountains (38%) and lowest in the Sierra Nevada (5%); northern aspects at lower elevations within each mountain region had the highest probabilities of mortality and dying stands had higher climatic water deficit. Scenarios for the future of whitebark pine in California are discussed.

Globally there has been an increasing trend in urban growth with cities expanding rapidly, indicating a requirement for more sustainable development of cities to minimize human impacts on the environment. In Australia, urban development continues to target areas adjacent to the coastal capital and regional cities such as the Greater Geelong region in Victoria, experiencing the fastest rates of growth in the country in the last decade. This project demonstrates the ability of modelling techniques to model current and future directions in urban development across two adjacent coastal towns, Anglesea and Torquay, in Victoria. The analysis utilized Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the CommunityViz decision support tool using a variety of assets, environmental and climatic data. The models indicated an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage and population growth, and the area was found to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of environmental changes including the potential loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, and sea level rise. The modelling approach described here can aid planners and decision makers in the future coastal urban development as well as to mitigate climate change impacts.

Climate envelope models (CEMs) are widely used to forecast future shifts in species ranges under climate change, but these models are rarely validated against independent data, and their fundamental assumption that climate limits species distributions is rarely tested. Here, we use the data on the introduction of five South African dung beetle species to Australia to test whether CEMs developed in the native range can predict distribution in the introduced range, where the confounding effects of dispersal limitation, resource limitation and the impact of natural enemies have been removed, leaving climate as the dominant constraint. For two of the five species, models developed in the native range predict distribution in the introduced range about as well as models developed in the introduced range where we know climate limits distribution. For the remaining three species, models developed in the native range perform poorly, implying that non-climatic factors limit the native distribution of these species and need to be accounted for in species distribution models. Quantifying relevant non-climatic factors and their likely interactions with climatic variables for forecasting range shifts under climate change remains a challenging task.

Freshwater environments and their fishes are particularly vulnerable to climate change because the persistence and quality of aquatic habitat depend heavily on climatic and hydrologic regimes. In Australia, projections indicate that the rate and magnitude of climate change will vary across the continent. We review the likely effects of these changes on Australian freshwater fishes across geographic regions encompassing a diversity of habitats and climatic variability. Commonalities in the predicted implications of climate change on fish included habitat loss and fragmentation, surpassing of physiological tolerances and spread of alien species. Existing anthropogenic stressors in more developed regions are likely to compound these impacts because of the already reduced resilience of fish assemblages. Many Australian freshwater fish species are adapted to variable or unpredictable flow conditions and, in some cases, this evolutionary history may confer resistance or resilience to the impacts of climate change. However, the rate and magnitude of projected change will outpace the adaptive capacities of many species. Climate change therefore seriously threatens the persistence of many of Australia’s freshwater fish species, especially of those with limited ranges or specific habitat requirements, or of those that are already occurring close to physiological tolerance limits. Human responses to climate change should be proactive and focus on maintaining population resilience through the protection of habitat, mitigation of current anthropogenic stressors, adequate planning and provisioning of environmental flows and the consideration of more interventionist options such as managed translocations.

The possibility of climate change and the effects it will have on global and regional hydrology opens up serious questions about how the affected sectors of the economy and the water-dependent environmental assets can best adapt to the new, harsher climatic conditions. One of the possible approaches toward securing environmental water flows is to hold water rights on behalf of the public, and manage those rights for environmental purposes. This type of policy has been in effect in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, where the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder (CEWH) now has some 20% of all water rights in the basin. Thus far, the use of these water rights has been almost exclusively for environmental purposes, besides the calls for some of the allocations on these water rights to be sold to irrigators. This paper examines whether a change in policy that will allow a more flexible trading behavior of the CEWH so that it can be an active participant in the market for water allocations can help with adaptation to climate change from environmental management perspective, as well as from the perspective of irrigated agriculture industry. This objective is pursued by analyzing the effects of likely hydrological variations under climate change. Key parameters that are taken into account are expected water availability, and the variability in water availability. The discourse is framed within the concept of optimal allocation of water resources so as to maximize overall social benefit from water use. The results indicate that active participation of the CEWH in the water market leads to superior outcomes in terms of both greater overall social benefit, and greater quantity of water being available for environmental purposes under climate change. The key policy implication is that trading rules for CEWH should be relaxed, especially under the projected climate change scenarios.

Some claim that climate change will result in an increase in vector-borne disease, flooding, catastrophic weather events, loss of biodiversity, changes in agricultural production and other problems. Yet these are problems today and are either caused or are exacerbated by poverty. Tackling poverty is likely to be better way to address these problems than attempting to control the climate. Climatic change may turn out to be benign or harmful: We do not know. But in the context of this uncertainty, policies that are narrowly focused on adaptation to possible negative effects are short-sighted and may even be counterproductive. Policies aimed at mitigation through control of atmospheric carbon are almost certainly counterproductive. Adaptive, sustainable development can only come through the adoption of institutions that enable people to engage in economic activities that create wealth and lead to technological progress. Policies that rely on these institutions provide the best way to deal with an uncertain climate future.

Abstract Fire refugia—unburnt habitat within a wildfire’s perimeter—play a key role in wildlife persistence and recovery. While studies have shown that the location of refugia is influenced by local topographic factors, growing evidence points to extreme fire weather becoming the dominant factor driving high-severity wildfires that result in the location of fire refugia being less predictable. Between September 2019 and February 2020, a series of mega-fires in eastern Australia burned largely in broadleaf forest. We assessed burned and unburned areas of forest in eastern Australia using Sentinel-2 satellite data, aggregated monthly over the fire season to calculate a fire severity layer at a 20 m pixel resolution. We found that fires burned 5.7 × 106 ha−1 of forest and woodland. The total percentage area of unburned forest within the wildfire footprint was approximately 10%. The majority (94%) of the unburnt forest and woodland patches within the fire perimeter occurred as patches <1 ha (n = 842 622 and 111 707 ha) with far fewer large unburnt patches (>100 ha) (n = 575 and 286 080 ha). Boosted regression tree analyses of the relationships between fire severity and potential explanatory variables revealed that 63%–78% of the variable importance in the models were climatic and weather-related factors. Fire weather index was the single most important variable for analyses, accounting for 40%–52% of modelled results. Our results reinforce mounting evidence that a shift is underway in the balance between deterministic and contingent factors in the occurrence of fire refugia with local topographic controls being increasingly overridden by severe fire weather conditions, and declining topographic effects as fire severity increases. Further studies are needed over a longer time frame, inclusive of prior forest management impacts, to confirm that the ability to predict fire refugia is permanently declining.

Understanding variation in tree functional traits along topographic gradients and through time provides insights into the processes that will shape community composition and determine ecosystem functioning. In montane environments, complex topography is known to affect forest structure and composition, yet its role in determining trait composition, indices on community climatic tolerances, and responses to changing environmental conditions has not been fully explored. This study investigates how functional trait composition (characterized as community-weighted moments) and community climatic indices vary for the tree community as a whole and for its separate demographic components (i.e., dying, surviving, recruiting trees) over eight years in a topographically complex tropical Andean forest in southern Ecuador. We identified a strong influence of topography on functional composition and on species’ climatic optima, such that communities at lower topographic positions were dominated by acquisitive species adapted to both warmer and wetter conditions compared to communities at upper topographic positions which were dominated by conservative cold adapted species, possibly due to differences in soil conditions and hydrology. Forest functional and climatic composition remained stable through time; and we found limited evidence for trait-based responses to environmental change among demographic groups. Our findings confirm that fine-scale environmental conditions are a critical factor structuring plant communities in tropical forests, and suggest that slow environmental warming and community-based processes may promote short-term community functional stability. This study highlights the need to explore how diverse aspects of community trait composition vary in tropical montane forests, and to further investigate thresholds of forest response to environmental change.

BackgroundCloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remainedin situor expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence.MethodsHere we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences.ResultsBayesian trees retrievedCyathea, Alsophyla, GymnosphaeraandSphaeropterisin monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except forGymnosphaerathat was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant variables or elevation. For elevational shifts, we found repeated change from low to high elevations.ConclusionsOur data suggest that representatives of Cyatheaceae main lineages migrated from Australia to Mesoamerican cloud forests in different times and have persisted in these environmentally unstable areas but extant species diverged recentrly from their ancestors.

Understanding the causes of savanna–forest dynamics is vital as small but widespread changes in the extent of tropical forests can have major impacts on global climate, biodiversity and human well-being. Comparison of aerial photographs for 50 rain-forest patches in Kakadu National Park had previously revealed a landscape-wide monotonic expansion of rain-forest boundaries between 1964 and 2004. Here floristic, structural, environmental and disturbance attributes of the changes were investigated by sampling 588 plots across 30 rain-forest patches. Areas that had changed from savanna to rain forest were associated with a significantly higher abundance of rain-forest trees and less grasses, relative to stable savanna areas. Ordination analyses showed that overall floristic composition was not significantly different between newly established rain forest and longer established rain forest. Generalized linear models also indicated that contemporary levels of disturbance (fire and feral animal impact) and environmental variables (slope and soil texture) were poor predictors of historical vegetation change. We concluded that (1) the rain-forest boundaries are highly dynamic at the decadal scale; (2) rain-forest expansion is consistent with having been driven by global environmental change phenomena such as increases in rainfall and atmospheric CO2; and (3) expansion will continue if current climatic trends and management conditions persist.