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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate vulnerability assessment'

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Published: 1 March 2025

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1

Wiréhn, Lotten. "Climate vulnerability assessment methodology : Agriculture under climate change in the Nordic region." Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-143226.

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Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies.
För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.

This is deliverable of the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR), funded by the Nordic Top-level Research Initiative Sub-programme ‘Effects Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change’.

The work has also been supported by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS under Grant No. 2013-1557 ‘Identifying thresholds for maladaptation in Nordic agriculture’

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2

Griffiths, Chevon. "Climate change and coastal vulnerability: application of vulnerability assessment methodologies in two coastal communities in South Africa." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/22970.

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Climate and environmental change is a phenomenon which is having a significant effect on human-ecological systems around the world. It is predicted to have a detrimental impact on certain groups and populations; among those most at risk are those who have the highest exposure and sensitivity to the climate and environmental changes and the lowest adaptive capacity. This includes coastal fishing communities and therefore necessitates action at a variety of scales in order to build the resilience of these individuals and groups to the predicted changes and their potential impacts. Vulnerability assessments (VAs) have been identified as an effective way to discover who is most vulnerable and to what threats or hazards. This is valuable as assistance can then be provided to the individuals, groups, regions or countries identified as most vulnerable. VAs can be conducted at a variety of scales and can be either quantitative or qualitative. This research project focused on vulnerability assessments conducted at the local level. These community-scale assessments are important as they are able to elicit finer-scale details, identify the greatest hazards and stressors, and conceptualize adaptation strategies that are locally-informed, context specific and targeted towards a specific community. The focus of this research project was to first assess the vulnerability of two coastal communities in South Africa, namely Doringbaai and St Helena Bay, using a suite of mixed methods which included focus group discussions, the review of secondary data, and key informant interviews. Secondly, this project aimed to assess the potential contribution of a 'rapid vulnerability assessment' (RVA) methodology, conducted in the same two coastal fishing communities, to gain information required to identify appropriate adaptation strategies in the context of climate and environmental change. The RVA is conducted as a workshop over a two-day period and may be followed by key informant interviews on the third day, if appropriate and required. This research sought to compare and contrast the information emanating from the RVA workshops with information obtained from the triangulation of mixed methods used in this study with respect to: key threats and stressors faced by the two small-scale fishing communities, identified environmental changes, impacts of these changes on fisher livelihoods, current coping strategies and potential adaptation strategies. Criteria for assessing the performance of the two different approaches were drawn from the literature and systematically documented. The outcome of the assessment showed that the RVA has value as a VA methodology and is able to identify locally relevant, potentially viable adaptation strategies. It is an effective approach for obtaining a good overview of the vulnerabilities of a community and is thus especially useful in under-resourced and data-poor regions. The conclusion was therefore that it is an exceptionally useful tool as a starting point for vulnerability assessments but can be enriched by combining it with other methods such as the review of secondary data, focus group discussions, surveys, questionnaires and key informant interviews. Furthermore, it is recommended that the RVA includes follow-up research and focuses on flexible adaptation strategies.
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Araya, Muñoz Dahyann Johanna. "Urban vulnerability assessment of the coast of Chile." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/29504.

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Vulnerability to weather-related hazards is a considerable humanitarian, economic and environmental concern for cities, especially in developing countries. However, there is a limited understanding of urban vulnerability and its specific implications. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability caused by climatic and societal change in Chile’s key coastal urban areas. In this urban vulnerability assessment, both regional and local approaches were undertaken, the former to give a broad sense of the possible futures that these cities face and the latter to explore, using all available and reliable data, how climatic and societal change affected one of these metropolitan areas. For the time points 2025, 2055 and 2085, the regional assessment shows that vulnerability is likely to vary across different scenarios and time frames. A significant future increase in exposure to hazards is mainly moderated, to a greater or lesser extent, by an increase in the adaptive capacity of the cities in question. Cities in central and southern Chile are more vulnerable. The local assessment provides a detailed evaluation of recent past vulnerabilities in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA). In the local assessment, an urban indicator framework was first designed and then employed to explore changes in exposure and sensitivity of areas within CMA and the general ability of the urban system to adapt to different hazards. Five weather-related hazards were explored: coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress and wildfire, using a flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling with geographic information systems. Hazard-specific vulnerability and overall vulnerability indices were created. The local assessment results indicate a high vulnerability in the CMA that decreased slightly between 1992 and 2002. The combined socio-economic factors of sensitivity and adaptive capacity influenced the index more than the biophysical factors of exposure. Changes in age structure and economic growth had a greater influence on vulnerability that other variables. Overall vulnerability varied across municipalities and hazards, with wildfires and water scarcity influencing overall vulnerability the most. Fuzzy modelling enabled realism and flexibility in the standardization and aggregation of indicators with different attributes. It permitted the exploration of the individual and aggregate influence of the indicators that comprise the indices. ArcGIS software favoured transparency and simplicity in the aggregation of multiple entry criteria, facilitating spatial representation through maps, which can help identify indicators, components and hazards or combinations thereof that influence municipal vulnerability. The results can be used to improve and promote dialogue among policy-makers and stakeholders regarding the prioritization of resources for urban development in ways that can reduce vulnerability to climate change.
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Sorey, Gaël. "Climate Change And Vulnerability Impact Assessment Study of the Agricultural Adapatability in Tanzania." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-59328.

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Future climate change and variability is one of the top priorities for most countries and regions in the world. Unpredictability and uncertainty regarding future climate is making adaptation forecasts and mitigation of climate change on societies a real challenge for both climate scientists and policy makers. The climate system is not a static entity. On the contrary, changes are part of the mechanism. The impact of human activities, however, has accelerated processes inducing the need for rapid adaptation and mitigation strategies. This thesis focuses on understanding how hydrology and climate influence vulnerability and adaptation of rural Tanzania. This is done by looking at social, climatic and biophysical factors of two villages located in western Tanzania. Analysis of local climate and hydrology factors showed that precipitation and evapotranspiration amounts were about thesame, resulting in small margins for error for successful small scale agriculture. Investigation of various strategies used by farmers as a response to present climate variability are insufficient, and raise concerns about the potential hazard of future climate change. Most of the strategies rely on socio-ecological services from the surrounding environment, and therefore would face dire consequences as a result of future climate change. A wider understanding of successful current adaptation and resilience strategiesand their systematic application would increase the ability of farmers to meet the challenges of future climate volatility.
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Cincio, Paige. "Quantifying the Vulnerability of Arctic Water Supply Lakes to Environmental Change Through Paleolimnological Assessment." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/41488.

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Anthropogenic stressors to freshwater environments have perpetuated water quality and quantity challenges for northern communities across Arctic Canada, making drinking water resources a primary concern for Arctic populations. To understand the ecological trajectory of freshwater supply sources, we conducted a paleolimnological assessment on two supplemental sources of freshwater in Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. A stratigraphic examination of bioindicators (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) allowed for paleotemperature reconstructions with decadal and centennial resolution over the past 2000 years. Between 200 and 1900 CE, the sub-fossil chironomid community was comprised of cold-water taxa, such as Abiskomyia, Micropsectra radialis-type, and Paracladius. Reconstructed temperatures were consistent with known climate anomalies during this period. A rapid shift in the composition of the chironomid community to warm-water adapted taxa (Chironomus anthracinus-type, Dicrotendipes, and Tanytarsus lugens-type) in the late 20th century was observed in both systems. Our results demonstrate that these lake ecosystems are undergoing marked transformations to warmer, more nutrient-rich environments, and suggest water sustainability pressures on freshwater and human systems will likely continue in tandem with ongoing climate change. To contextualize the influence of recent warming and elucidate the status of water resource vulnerability over the longer term, paleolimnological methods can be usefully applied as components of vulnerability assessments.
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Palmer, Anna E. "Climate Change on Arid Lands – A Vulnerability Assessment of Tribal Nations in the American West." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1502443290575261.

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Hou, Xiaohui. "Risk Communication in Vulnerability Assessment Towards Development of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Health in Guangxi, China." Thesis, Griffith University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367699.

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Over the past few decades, climate change has emerged as a significant global problem. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that warming will continue throughout this century and beyond 2100 (IPCC, 2013). Changes in climate have presented a considerable risk for environment and health on all continents (IPCC, 2014f; Kirch et al., 2005; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003). The impacts of climate change are most evident from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and cyclones (IPCC, 2013). These extreme weather events have significant impacts upon ecosystems, communities and human health, including disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, morbidity and mortality, and consequences for mental health and human well-being (McGeehin & Mirabelli, 2001).The Guangxi government has developed its own action plan as province-wide guidelines to respond to climate change. It has developed mitigation strategies in controlling carbon dioxide emissions in industry, agriculture, forest, mining and tourism (GXGov, 2009a). However, adaptation strategies are missing in this action plan. With the increasing threats from the climate-related extreme weather events in this province, adaptation strategies and policies are urgently required to support local communities in reducing their vulnerability and increasing their adaptive capacity to those events.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Environment.
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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8

Akhter, Feroz Raisin. "Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Sustainable Urban Development : A Study on Slum Population of Kota, India." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema vatten i natur och samhälle, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-108959.

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The urban centres are becoming more vulnerable to climate change because of the rapid urbanization and the inequality of urban development. This study assesses the urban vulnerability in an integrated approach focusing the slum people as the targeted group. The slum people are severely exposed to climate risks in terms of city‟s overall development. The negative indications of the indicators of person‟s vulnerability represent their high sensitivity to the adverse impact of climate change. The determinants of adaptive capacity also confirm that the slum people are more vulnerable to climate change with having lower adaptive capacity; though, the city is possessing high development indexes. In this context, an institutional structure is developed to build multi-level urban climate governance with the involvement of all relevant stakeholders based on the case study and literature review to integrate the vulnerable group in development planning for climate change adaptation.
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Raghavan, Sathyan Archana [Verfasser]. "Climate change vulnerability assessment among rainfed smallholder farmers: a case analysis from Indian watersheds / Archana Raghavan Sathyan." Gießen : Universitätsbibliothek, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1187658324/34.

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Tonmoy, Fahim. "Assessment of vulnerability to climate change: theoretical and methodological developments with applications to infrastructure and built environment." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/10167.

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Assessing vulnerability to climate change can help policymakers in incorporating climate futures in planning and in better allocating adaptation resources. Indicator Based Vulnerability Assessment (IBVA) has been widely used because it is relatively simple to design, implement and communicate. However, this approach faces significant difficulties from conceptual, theoretical and methodological points of view. A number of assumptions are typically made in methods used for aggregation of indicators—a linear, monotonic relationship between indicator and vulnerability; complete compensation between indicators; precise knowledge of vulnerable systems by stakeholders who provide input data for the assessment exercise—none of which usually hold in reality. Following a meta-analysis of the IBVA literature, the thesis proposes a) a general mathematical framework for vulnerability assessment that better identifies sources of uncertainty and non-linearity; b) a new IBVA assessment methodology, and associated computer tool, based on a pair-wise outranking approach borrowed from decision science; the methodology can represent various sources of uncertainty, different degree of compensation between indicators and different types of non-linearity in the relationship between indicators and vulnerability and; c) a system dynamics model, integrated in the above framework, for studying vulnerability of infrastructure systems and better representing the mechanistic interdependency of their components. These methods are applied to a real-life assessment of the vulnerability to sea-level rise of communities and infrastructure systems in Shoalhaven, south of Sydney, at local scale. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the Shoalhaven council and includes an analysis of the sensitivity of vulnerability rankings to community preferences. In addition, the effect of using an outranking framework on the way vulnerability is conceptualized by stakeholders is critically appraised.
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Gain, Animesh Kumar <1983&gt. "Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems : the case of Lower Bramaputra River Basin." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/2243.

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Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources systems (WRSs), in which complex interactions of the social-ecological systems are in place. Therefore, for assessing vulnerability and risk of WRSs, the integrated contribution of several disciplines is required, enabling a comprehensive, but also dynamic description of present state and future trends. With the aim to integrate the assessment of risks of complex WRSs, this dissertation first focuses on the hydrologic impacts of climate change, with calculation of river flow thresholds, and the related water governance issues, and then it moves to the integrated assessment of vulnerability and risk of WRSs, with a focus on the development of operational approaches in the context of developing countries. The assessment has been conducted in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB).
Oltre ai cambiamenti climatici, l'evoluzione demografica, lo sviluppo economico e le relative variazioni di uso del suolo hanno un impatto diretto sulla crescente domanda di risorse di acqua dolce. Nel loro insieme, l'effetto netto di questi cambiamenti della domanda e dell'offerta sta interessando la vulnerabilità dei sistemi idrici (WRS). Pertanto, per valutare la vulnerabilità dei e il rischio per i WRSs, è necessaria non solo l’integrazione dei contributi di diverse discipline, consentendo un approccio globale, ma anche la rappresentazione dinamica delle tendenze attuali e future. Con l'obiettivo di integrare la valutazione dei rischi dei complessi WRS, questa tesi si concentra in primo luogo sugli impatti idrologici dei cambiamenti climatici, con il calcolo delle soglie di flusso del fiume Brahmaputra e l’inquadramento dei problemi relativi alla gestione delle sue acque, per poi passare a una valutazione integrata della vulnerabilità e del rischio del sistema socio-ecologico che ci interagisce, con una particolare attenzione allo sviluppo di approcci operativi nel contesto di paesi in via di sviluppo. La valutazione è stata condotta nel contesto del Basso bacino del fiume Brahmaputra (LBRB).
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Laila, Fariya. "Assessment on Social Vulnerabilities to Climate Change – a Study on South-Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-207482.

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According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh with its densely populated coastal areas is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries affected by climate change in the world. In this context, the goal of this research is to assess the social vulnerability of the south-western coastal communities of the country,which is becoming more vulnerable, trying to understand the underlying social conditions of coastal people who are dependent on limited natural resources. To do so, vulnerability indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are analyzed using quantitative data collected from different sample areas and focus group discussions (FGD) were held with the local women in two study areas. The results show that a community in the area have close dependency on natural resources such as water, mangrove forest and also has a limited set of livelihood options. Also many households, above the traditional fishing and agriculture, have no secondary occupation or alternative livelihood options. Therefore, unpredictable seasonal patterns on the sea and land would threat livelihood and mainly their food security. Considering that the coastal areas have potential opportunities for nation’s sustainable development, assessing on social vulnerability to climate change will help to create regulation and awareness programs in order to minimize vulnerabilities.
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Feindouno, Sosso. "Structural vulnerability and fragility : an assessment based on composite indicators." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne‎ (2017-2020), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018CLFAD014.

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Les concepts de vulnérabilité et de fragilité sont au cœur du débat sur la définition et la mise en œuvre des objectifs de développement durable. Cette thèse propose des outils pour évaluer la vulnérabilité structurelle et la fragilité sous divers aspects: économique, social et environnemental. L'approche proposée pour appréhender ces concepts repose sur la construction et le raffinement d'indicateurs composites. Elle est composée de quatre chapitres.Dans le Chapitre 1, nous construisons des séries rétrospectives de l’indice de vulnérabilité économique (EVI) proposé par le Comité des politiques de développement des Nations Unies pour l’identification des Pays les Moins Avancés (PMA). La vulnérabilité économique structurelle des PMA reste supérieure à celle des non-PMA. De plus, en se focalisant sur le cadre africain, nous montrons que les Etats fragiles sont économiquement plus vulnérables que les Etats non fragiles et que, la différence entre les deux groupes de pays est essentiellement due à l’ampleur des chocs. Enfin, en utilisant une approche basée sur la stochastique dominance et un horizon temporel de cinq ans, nous observons qu’il n’y a pas de baisse significative de l’EVI et de ses principaux composants au premier ordre. En revanche, une diminution généralisée peut être conclue au second ordre.Le Chapitre 2 est consacré à la question de la résilience structurelle à travers un indice de capital humain (HAI). Nous présentons les séries rétrospectives du HAI et de ses composants, pour lesquels des outils économétriques ont été utilisés pour imputer les données manquantes. Nous analysons la dynamique du HAI en évaluant la contribution de chacun de ses composants. Enfin, nous débattons de la problématique cruciale de la pondération et proposons un nouveau système de poids basé sur le rapport de corrélation et la linéarité (ou non linéarité) entre les composants.Le Chapitre 3 a trait à la vulnérabilité au changement climatique. Après avoir mis en lumière le flou existant autour de la définition et de la mesure de la vulnérabilité au changement climatique, nous construisons un indice composite appelé « Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (PVCCI) ». Cet indice repose uniquement sur les caractéristiques physiques du changement climatique et est indépendant des politiques présentes et futures des pays. Il a vocation à être utilisé pour l’allocation internationale des ressources. Pour finir, le Chapitre traite de la relation entre conflits civils et vulnérabilité au changement climatique, mesurée ici par le PVCCI.Le Chapitre 4 part du constat que les pays africains accusent encore un retard dans l’attraction des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Nous soupçonnons les facteurs de vulnérabilité économique structurelle, mesurée par l’EVI, d’être en partie responsables du manque d’intérêt relatif des investisseurs étrangers à l’égard de l’Afrique. Nous estimons un modèle spatial à correction d’erreur sur la période 1980-2010 pour évaluer les relations dynamiques entre les IDE et ses déterminants. Notre analyse révèle qu’à long terme, il existe une relation négative et significative entre les IDE et l’EVI. Les résultats suggèrent également qu’un EVI élevé dans les pays voisins a un impact négatif sur les IDE du pays hôte. Pour finir, nous montrons que la vulnérabilité économique structurelle joue un rôle important dans l’explication de l’écart en termes d’IDE entre les pays africains à faible revenu et les pays africains à revenu intermédiaire. La part de l’agriculture, de la foresterie et de la pêche dans le PIB apparait comme le principal facteur contribuant à cet écart
Vulnerability and fragility are at the heart of the global debate arising from the definition and implementation of the sustainable development goals. This PhD dissertation offers enhanced tools to assess structural vulnerability and fragility from various aspects: economic, social, and environmental. The proposed approach for apprehending these concepts is based on the construction and refinement of composite indicators. It is divided into four chapters.In Chapter 1, we build the retrospective series of the economic vulnerability index (EVI), proposed by the United Nations’ Committee for Development Policy (CDP). Some choices and measures are discussed, such as the methodology used to calculate the instabilities of exports and agricultural production. From our analyses, it appears that the structural economic vulnerability of LDCs is still higher compared to non-LDCs. As well, focusing on the African context, we show that fragile African states are economically more vulnerable than non-fragile African states, and the difference between the two groups of countries seems to come from the difference in the magnitude of shocks. Finally, employing a stochastic dominance approach and using a five-year testing horizon to assess the evolution of the EVI and its main components over time, we observe that there is no real decline of the EVI and its main components at the first order sense. But, an overall decrease can be concluded at the second order sense of dominance.The second chapter focuses on the issue of structural resilience through the Human Assets Index (HAI), another index designed by the UN-CDP for identification of LDCs. We start with a presentation of retrospective series of the HAI and its components, for which, to a limited extend, we have used econometric tools to consistently impute missing data. Secondly, we analyze the HAI’s dynamics by assessing the contributions of each component to this. Finally, we debate about the choice of equal weighting for the four components in the HAI. Taking into account the fact that the correlation between indicators is closely linked to the issue, we propose a new scheme pattern based on the correlation ratio and linearity (or nonlinearity) dependence between components. The third chapter is devoted to the climate change vulnerability. We design a composite indicator called “Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change (PVCCI)”. This indicator based only on the physical characteristics of climate change is independent of present and future country policy, and aims to be used for international allocation of resources. After explaining the specific methodology used to build the PVCCI and presenting the results for developing countries, we investigate the relationship between civil conflict and vulnerability to climate change measured here by the PVCCI. The starting point of the fourth chapter is that African countries are still lagging behind when it comes to attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). We suspect the structural economic vulnerability, measured by the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), in part, responsible for the relative lack of interest of foreign investors towards Africa. We estimate a spatial error correction model during the time period from 1980 to 2010 to assess the dynamic relationships between FDI and its determinants. Our finding reveals that in the long run, there is a significant negative relationship between FDI and EVI. The results also suggest that a high EVI in neighboring countries negatively affects the amount of FDI into a host country. Later on, we also observe that structural economic vulnerability plays an important role in explaining the FDI gap between African Low-Income Countries and African Middle-Income Countries. The share of agriculture, forestry and fishery in GDP appears as the strongest contributing factor to this difference
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Miranda, Francisco Marcela. "Assessing vulnerability to sea level rise in the state of São Paulo, Brazil." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-149065.

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The study aims to assess vulnerability to sea level rise of the municipal population from the coastal region of the state of São Paulo. This vulnerability assessment focus on degrees of vulnerability and what are the main factors that affect vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities. The study has included indicators of vulnerability to sea level rise which were represented through vulnerability mapping reflecting the degrees of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, exposure and total vulnerability of the municipalities. The results have shown that São Vicente, São Sebastião, Praia Grande, Santos and Guarujá were classified as highly vulnerable to sea level rise and Santos as the most vulnerable municipality. The assessment indicated that approximately 1 million inhabitants of the coastal zone of São Paulo could be affected by a rise of up to 1 meter in the sea level in one generation time, around 100 years. Social factors are among the main factors that affect vulnerability, which are especially related to urban infrastructure; however biophysical factors, particularly linked to erosion and inundation are significant factors to vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities likewise, economic factors, as the most vulnerable municipalities concentrate industries with high polluting potential. The identified main factors that affect coastal vulnerability should be integrated in policy considerations that should also focus on long term urban management strategies.
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von, Post Sofia. "Global climate policy in the perspective of South : An Analysis of IPCC’s Third Assessment Report." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-5372.

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The objective of this thesis is to investigate how of the concepts of adaptation and vulnerability are defined in IPCC’s third assessment report (TAR) with specific focus on IPCC’s response to the critique from South. I have achieved this by doing a text analysis of the content in TAR. My point of departure was in the position of South and there critiques on the climate change policy. I have divided the objective into different research question where I focus on the definition of vulnerability, the determining factors of adaptive capacity, if there is a difference in vulnerability between and within regions and whether focus is on adaptation or mitigation in TAR. There are two definitions of vulnerability in TAR. One is by Brooks (2003) referred as biophysical and the other as social vulnerability. Which one the authors in the report refer to is not put out which cause confusion. In earlier assessments are the biophysical approach more common than the social. In TAR is the use of vulnerability in terms of social conditions more common than the biophysical. This is an improvement since this definition is necessary to get a greater focus on the need for immediate adaptation, in South particularly. It was somewhat problematic to determine whether the adaptive capacity only on the level of the system was considered in TAR or also exogenous factors, which affect the capacity of the system, was included in the definition. In some sense exogenous factors have been considered however it is not much reflection over this. In the report there is a consensus that the vulnerability differs between regions. However there is not much research conducted in developing countries. Also in the issue of concentration on adaptation or mitigation the problem is that there is not enough research from developing countries. Despite this, this assessment report has more focus on adaptation than the other ones.

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Williams, Portia Adade. "An integrated approach to climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment of smallholder production systems: evidence from horticultural production in Ghana." Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Science, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32359.

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The consequences of changing climate mainly impact negatively on agricultural production, particularly smallholder producers. Despite increased research on vulnerability and adaptation, African countries have still not realized their full potential in adapting to changing climate. Climate vulnerability assessments show limited use in guiding decision support for adopting proposed adaptation responses identified. This study examines climate vulnerability of smallholder producers and economically evaluates adaptation strategies identified. This is to enhance vulnerability assessment practice and provide support for decision-making on adoption to influence local level planning and actions on climate adaptation. The study further explores approaches to vulnerability assessment that link climate adaptation process. Smallholder horticultural production system in Ghana provided an appropriate case for this study. Mixed methods approach that combined field surveys, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and field observations in two horticultural growing municipalities in Ghana (Keta and Nsawam) were adopted. Both qualitative and quantitative inputs for analysis were obtained. Specifically, a combination of theoretical insights from livelihood analysis (Livelihood Vulnerability Index) with an appraisal method (Cost Benefit Analysis) arising from an investment in adaptation options was used as the analytical framework for the study. Smallholder farmers in both case study sites showed different vulnerabilities based on their levels of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Local knowledge, perceptions and effects of climatic trends (eg. increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall) on farmers' livelihoods resulted in identification of about twenty-four strategies practiced by farmers to manage changing climate. Costs and benefits analysis of the first five adaptation strategies indicated economic effectiveness both privately and publicly if adopted. However, in consideration of other factors like capital required, payback period for investments made and risks from implementation, two of the adaptation strategies particularly appeared as most suited choices while the role of targeted and dedicated external institutional, policy and stakeholders' support turned out to be paramount for successful adaptation. These observations have implications for the degree of influence vulnerability assessment has for local level planning and actions on climate adaptation. The study underscores vulnerability and adaptation should be considered synergistically. It therefore proposes a framing of vulnerability assessment to explicitly incorporate adaptation actions and their benefits to reduce vulnerability and provide better linkages to decision-making and policy relevance. Making decision support a major outcome from vulnerability assessment extends assessment outcomes from identification of vulnerable people/places to include identification and evaluation of adaptation responses, which facilitate the prioritization and selection of adaptation options for adoption. It concludes by highlighting pathways to reduce the vulnerability of farming communities such as exploring opportunities to expand a system's adaptive capacity through empowering farmers' socially and economically. Extra knowledge and policy interventions in vulnerability and adaptation discourse are further suggested to promote and encourage adaptation efforts.
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Hu, Xi. "A temporal and spatial analysis of China's infrastructure and economic vulnerability to climate change impacts." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:72408c96-c0fc-4dbc-a93b-c29a6c25da0c.

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A warmer climate is expected to increase the risks of natural disasters globally. China is one of the hotspots of climate impacts since its infrastructures and industries are often hard hit. Yet little is known about the nature and the extent to which they are affected. This thesis builds novel system-of-systems risk assessment methodologies and data for China, representing infrastructures (energy, transport, waste, water and digital communications) as interdependent networks that support spatially distributed users of infrastructure services. A unique national-scale geo-spatial network database containing 64,834 existing infrastructure assets is assembled. For the first time, flood and drought exposure maps of China's key infrastructures are created, highlighting the locations of key urban areas to understand how its infrastructures and population could be exposed to climate impacts. To deepen the understanding of how climate change will affect the Chinese infrastructure system and hence its economy, economic impact modelling is applied. The research combines a detailed firm-level econometric analysis of 162,830 companies with a macroeconomic input-output model to estimate flood impacts on China's manufacturing sector over the period 2003 - 2010. It is estimated that flooding on average reduces firm output by 3.18% - 3.87% per year and their propagating effects on the Chinese macroeconomic system to be a 1.38% - 1.68% annual loss in total direct and indirect output, which amounts to 17,323 - 21,082 RMB billion. Several infrastructure sectors - electricity, the heat production and supply industry, gas production and supply, the water production and supply industry - are indirectly affected owing to the effects of supply chain disruptions. Taking the above analysis one step further, this thesis explores how climate disaster risks may change over the period 2016 - 2055, using flooding as a case study. A global river routing (CaMa-Flood) model at a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° is applied and downscaled for China, using the daily runoff of 11 Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Combining the flood analysis with the infrastructure database, this research demonstrates the changing locations of exposed infrastructures and their dependent customers. We find that by 2055, the number of infrastructure assets exposed to increasing probability of flooding under RCP 4.5 are 41, 268, 115, 53, 739, 1098, 432 for airports, dams, data centres, ports, power plants, rail stations, reservoirs respectively - almost 8% of all assets for each sector. The lengths of line assets exposed to increasing flood hazards are 14,376 km, 32,740 km, 102,877 km and 25,310 km oil pipelines, rail tracks, roads and transmission lines respectively. Under RCP 8.4, the numbers increase to 51, 301, 137, 71, 812, 1066, 424 for point assets. Linear assets increase to 19,938 km, 39,859 km, 122,155 km and 30,861 km. Further, we demonstrate that indirect exposure of customers reliant on those infrastructure assets outside the floodplain could also be high. The average number of customers affected by increasing flood probabilities are 54 million, 114 million and 131 million for airports, power plants and stations respectively. However, within this aggregate increase there is large spatial variation, which has implications for spatial planning of adaptation to flood risk to infrastructure. This is a first substantial study of flood impacts to infrastructure both in terms of direct exposure and their indirect implications. Lastly, to shed some light on the potential vulnerability of China's infrastructure system to climate impacts, this thesis develops a framework that identifies the drivers of infrastructure development in China using evidence from policy documents and a unique geospatial dataset for the years 1900 - 2010. Understanding these drivers will provide a useful foundation for future research in terms of developing infrastructure models that could project the locations of future infrastructure assets and networks in China, thereby quantifying how China's infrastructure exposure and vulnerability will change over time. Overall this research provides an integrated system-of-systems perspective of understanding network and economic vulnerabilities and risks to Chinese energy, transport, water, waste and digital communication infrastructures due to climate change. This is crucial in informing the long-term planning and adaptation in China.
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Sánchez, Ortiz Antoni. "Priorat vineyard vulnerability and water stress assessment in the context of global climate change. Estimated Priorat wine consumption in humans." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672427.

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Les varietats Garnatxa i Carinyena estan molt esteses a la província de Tarragona, especialment a la DOQ Priorat. El canvi global està induint variacions importants en la fenologia, producció i qualitat, que mostren la vulnerabilitat d'aquest cultiu enfront de l'augment de la temperatura i reduccions importants en la disponibilitat d'aigua. S'avaluen dos aspectes importants: l'ecofisiologia relacionada amb l'estat hídric i els efectes induïts per les variacions mesoclimátiques, específicament la temperatura i la disponibilitat d'aigua. L'efecte del clima i el sòl en relació al creixement, la variabilitat climàtica anual, així com la seva interacció amb el sòl i la seva capacitat de reserva hídrica permet avaluar la vulnerabilitat de la viticultura al canvi global. Es va avaluar l'estrès hídric juntament amb una metodologia per a la determinació d'ABA i la classificació dels mesoclimes. També, això va permetre estudiar com els períodes de poca disponibilitat d'aigua i altes temperatures poden afectar la síntesi de compostos fenòlics. L'anàlisi de la composició fenòlica per HPLC va ser fonamental per a l'establiment dels paràmetres de qualitat en relació a l'estrès hídric. En segon lloc, la validació d'una metodologia a petita escala utilitzada en estudis de vinyes heterogènies mostra els pros i els contres d'emprar diferents volums de fermentació a petita escala. Quan una mostra no és prou gran, els fenols totals no es poden extreure completament del vi. Aquest buit s'ompliria examinant com els diferents volums podrien afectar l'extracció dels vins i quin seria el volum per representar de manera concloent un procediment de vinificació específic. Finalment, els compostos fenòlics del vi també han suscitat un gran interès pels seus efectes potencialment beneficiosos per a la salut humana. D'acord amb la seva baixa biodisponibilitat, es va estimar l'eficàcia de la ingesta de 5 vins de diferents zones del Priorat. Es van avaluar els efectes beneficiosos de diferents rangs d'ingesta recomanada per al vi en funció del sexe, l'edat i el factor d'activitat. La implementació d'una viticultura de precisió, l'adaptació de tècniques d'extracció de color i taní i del consum de vins amb una composició coneguda seran claus en un context de canvi climàtic.
Las variedades Garnacha y Cariñena están muy extendidas en la provincia de Tarragona, especialmente en la DOQ Priorat. El cambio global está induciendo variaciones importantes en la fenología, producción y calidad, que muestran la vulnerabilidad de este cultivo frente a aumentos de temperatura y reducciones importantes en la disponibilidad de agua. Se evalúan, la ecofisiología relacionada con el estado hídrico y los efectos inducidos por las variaciones mesoclimáticas, específicamente la temperatura y la disponibilidad de agua. El efecto del clima y el suelo en relación al crecimiento, la variabilidad climática anual, así como su interacción con el suelo y su capacidad de reserva hídrica permitieron evaluar la vulnerabilidad de la viticultura al cambio global. Se evaluó el estrés hídrico junto con una metodología para la determinación de ABA y de clasificación de los mesoclimas. Además, esto permitió estudiar cómo los períodos de poca disponibilidad de agua y altas temperaturas pueden afectar la síntesis de compuestos fenólicos. El análisis de la composición fenólica por HPLC fue fundamental para el establecimiento de los parámetros de calidad en relación al estrés hídrico. En segundo lugar, la validación de una metodología a pequeña escala utilizada en estudios de viñedos heterogéneos indicó los pros y los contras de emplear diferentes volúmenes de fermentación a pequeña escala. Cuando una muestra no es lo suficientemente grande, los fenoles totales no pueden extraerse completamente del vino. Este vacío se llenaría examinando cómo los diferentes volúmenes podrían afectar la extracción de los vinos y cuál sería el volumen para representar de manera concluyente un procedimiento de vinificación específico. Por último, los compuestos fenólicos del vino también han suscitado un gran interés por sus efectos potencialmente beneficiosos para la salud humana. En base a su baja biodisponibilidad, se estimó la eficacia de la ingesta de 5 vinos de diferentes zonas del Priorat. Se evaluaron los efectos beneficiosos de diferentes rangos de ingesta recomendada para el vino en función del sexo, la edad y el factor de actividad. La implementación de una viticultura de precisión y la adaptación de técnicas de extracción de color y tanino seran claves en un contexto de cambio climático.
The Grenache and Carignan varieties are widely spread in the province of Tarragona, especially Priorat DOQ. Global change is inducing significant variations in the phenology, production and quality, which show the vulnerability of this crop in front of increases in temperature and significant reductions in water availability. Two important aspects are assessed: ecophysiological aspects related to water use efficiency and the effects induced by mesoclimatic variations, specifically temperature and water availability. The effect of climate and soil in relation to the growth of the vine, the annual climate variability, as well as its interaction with the soil and its water reserve capacity permitted to assess the vulnerability of viticulture to global change. To assess the water stress in grapevines together with a methodology for ABA determination and vineyard classification, allowed us to study how the periods of little water availability and high temperatures can affect the synthesis of phenolic compounds. Analysis of the phenolic composition by HPLC was essential for the establishment of the quality parameters in relation to water stress. Secondly, validating a small-scale methodology used in heterogenous vineyards studies indicated the pros and cons of employing different volumes of small-scale fermentation. When a sample is not large enough to undergo large-scale fermentation, the total phenols cannot be fully extracted from the wine. This gap would be filled by examining how different volumes could affect the composition of the wines to conclusively represent a specific winemaking procedure. Lastly, phenolic compounds of wine have also attracted much interest due to their potentially beneficial effects for human health. Based on its low bioavailability, it was estimated the efficacy intake of 5 different Priorat wines. It was evaluated the beneficial effects of different ranges of recommended intake for wine depending on gender, age and activity factor. Implementing precision viticulture and adapting the techniques of extraction of color and tannin during fermentation will have to be managed with greater knowledge and more precisely, depending on the water status of the plant.
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Cian, Fabio <1982&gt. "Social vulnerability and flood risk assessment using satellite remote sensing : a support for decision making in a changing climate scenario." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/10340.

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The aim of this research is to characterize social vulnerability and flood risk by means of satellite remote sensing as a support for decision makers in a context of climate change adaptation. The KULTURisk methodological framework was selected, which aims at assessing risk in monetary terms taking. It consider risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability and take into account coping and adaptive capacity. Each of these components have been considered with the aim of being characterized using remotely sensed data. For the hazard component, an innovative technique for flood mapping and flood depth estimation has been developed. The methodology is based on the multi-temporal statistical analysis of radar images for detecting changes between pre- and post-event images. From flood maps, depth is estimated using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In order to characterize exposure, an innovative technique of land cover classification has been used, which allowed the derivation of up to date land cover maps. Vulnerability has been tackled starting from land cover information and adding ancillary data concerning the economy and social aspect of the areas under investigation, Veneto and Malawi. Studying urban growth of the last 20 years, vulnerability indicators could be derived. Finally, flood risk has been assessed combining all the previous results. Future climate and socio-economic scenarios have been considered in order to assess the possible change in flood risk and possibly providing critical information for decision makers.
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Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes. "Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model." Master's thesis, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais
Greenhouse gas abatement policies (as a measure of preventing further contribution to global warming) are expected to increase the demand for renewable sources of energy driving a growing attention on Biomass as a valuable option as a renewable source of energy able to reduce CO2 emissions, by displacing fossil fuel use. The vulnerability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) to climate changes, along with the fact that it is a water-limited region, drive a great concern and interest in understand the potentials of biomass for energy production under projected climate changes, since water shortage is a projected consequence of it. Henceforth the goals stated for this work include the understanding of the impact magnitude that climate changes and the solely effect of rising CO2 (in accordance to the prescribed in A1B scenario from IPPC) have on biomass and productivity over the IP; the modeling of the interannual variability in terrestrial productivity and biomass across de region (having the period 1960-1990 as reference) and the energy potentials derived by biomass in future scenarios (2060-2090 and 2070-2100 periods). The carbon fluxes were modeled by JSBACH model and its results were handled using GIS and statistical analysis. A better understanding of the applicability (and reliability) of this model on achieving the latter stated goals was another goal purposed in this work. IP has shown a broadly positive response to climate change, i.e. increased productivity under scenarios admitting elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration (increases in GPP by ~41%; in forest NPP by ~54% and herbaceous NPP by ~36%, for 2060-2090 period), and smaller and negative response under scenarios disregarding rising CO2 levels (i.e. CO2 constant at 296ppm). The productivity and biomass correlation with changing climate variables also differed between different CO2 scenarios. The increase of water-use efficiency by 58% was as a result of CO2 fertilization effect, could explain the increase of productivity, although many limitations of the model (such as disregard of nitrogen cycle and land-use dynamics) poses many considerations to the acceptability of results and the overestimating productivity comparatively to many projections for the IP. Notwithstanding the comparison of changes in climate variables, showed a great correlation of results with other authors. A comprehensive analysis of biomass supply and its availability during scenarios with elevated CO2, shown that by 2060-2090, residues from thinning and logging activities over forest biomass have a potential of 0,165 and 0,495 EJ, and residues from agricultural activities (herbaceous biomass) have a potential of 0,346 EJ under a HIGH-YIELD scenario (assuming 40% of residues removal rate), corresponding to a share of current energy consumption of 13, 42 and 30%, respectively. The reasonability of these results was assessed by comparing with similar studies during the reference period.
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Tällö, Emma. "The Vulnerability of the Great Lakes Region to Waterborne Diseases in the Wake of Climate Change : A Literature Review." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-150649.

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Clean drinking and recreational water is essential for human survival and contaminated water cause 1.4 million deaths worldwide every year. Both developing and developed countries suffer as a consequence of unsafe water that cause waterborne diseases. The Great Lakes region, located in the United States is no exception. Climate change is predicted to cause an increase in waterborne disease outbreaks, worldwide, in the future. To adapt to this public health threat, vulnerability assessments are necessary. This literature study includes a vulnerability assessment that describes the main factors that affect the spreading of waterborne diseases in the Great Lakes region. Future climate scenarios in the region, and previous outbreaks are also described. The study also includes a statistical analysis where mean temperature and precipitation is plotted against waterborne disease cases. The main conclusion drawn is that the Great Lakes region is at risk of becoming more vulnerable to waterborne diseases in the future, if it does not adapt to climate change.
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Long, Jean. "Administrative Draft: Sea-Level Rise & Climate Adaptation Plan for the City of Carpinteria." DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2013. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/1050.

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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one consequence of global climate change and given Carpinteria's location right along the coast, the City will likely face the threats of sea-level rise and other impacts in greater frequency and intensity. The intent of this administrative draft is to provide a foundation for future development of a Climate Adaptation Plan, a starting point for the City’s climate initiatives. This administrative draft consists of background information on Carpinteria, a preliminary vulnerability assessment, and a list of potential strategies for City-led implementation. An adaptation plan is sound planning that recognizes the community’s vulnerabilities and attempts to minimize climate change impacts through preemptive action.
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Beichler, Simone [Verfasser], and Jörg [Akademischer Betreuer] Knieling. "Understanding social-ecological systems under climate change – Exploring the ecosystem service concept towards an integrated vulnerability assessment / Simone Beichler ; Betreuer: Jörg Knieling." Hamburg : HafenCity Universität Hamburg, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1144955548/34.

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Clarke, Kaila-Lea. "Climate-related Stresses on Human Health in a Remote and Rural Region of Ontario, Canada." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/23296.

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This thesis examines the susceptibility of human health to climate-related stresses in the rural municipality of Addington Highlands, Ontario. Human health is sensitive to climatic variations and change, and public health systems play a role in managing climate-related risks. Canada is generally deemed to have considerable capacity to adapt to vulnerabilities associated with climate change, yet there is variability among communities in their exposure and ability to manage health risks. This thesis examines the health-related vulnerability of the community of Addington Highlands. Drawing upon data gained from key informant interviews and newspaper articles, as well as other secondary data sources, the thesis documents climate-related health risks, outlines the programs and services available to deal with those risks, and assesses the capacity of the community to adapt to future climate conditions and risks. Conditions such as storms, heat stress and forest fires currently present health risks in the area, and they are expected to become more prevalent with climate change. The health risks of Lyme disease, West Nile virus and algal blooms are likely to increase in the future as the climate continues to change. Adaptation to these risks is evident in several of Addington Highlands public health and emergency management programs. The community’s adaptive capacity is strengthened by its social networks and institutional flexibility, but it is constrained by its aging population, limits to the availability and access to health care services, and challenges relating to the retention of service providers. An important strategy to assist adaptation to climate change risks to health is the promotion of public awareness, a strategy to which this research contributes. This thesis research serves to identify and better understand vulnerabilities, and help stimulate actions toward preparing Addington Highlands for possible future climate-related risks.
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Tekken, Vera [Verfasser]. "Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change: a regional assessment in the context of water stress and tourism development in north-eastern Morocco / Vera Tekken." Greifswald : Universitätsbibliothek Greifswald, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1042044023/34.

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Ozyurt, Gulizar. "Vulnerability Of Coastal Areas To Sea Level Rise: A Case Study On Goksu Delta." Master's thesis, METU, 2007. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608146/index.pdf.

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Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all the countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. In this study, a coastal vulnerability matrix and a corresponding coastal vulnerability index &ndash
CVI (SLR) of a region to sea level rise using indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are developed. The results of the matrix and the index enable decision makers to compare and rank different regions according to their vulnerabilities to sea level rise, to prioritize impacts of sea level rise on the region according to the vulnerability of the region to each impact and to determine the most vulnerable parameters for planning of adaptation measures to sea level rise. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is used to determine the vulnerability of Gö
ksu Delta (Specially Protected Area), Mersin that has unique geological, ecological and socio-economical properties which are protected and recognized by both national and international communities.
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27

Perdonò, Simone. "Preliminary assessment of risks and opportunities in the agri-food sector related to climate change." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.

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According to several studies, in 2017 human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels, increasing at 0.2°C per decade. In this context, it is essential that companies understand the risks of climate change and the tools with which manage them. This thesis work consists of an in-depth study of climate events resulting from climate change that can cause impacts on the studied business system (hazards). Firstly, it has been evaluated the exposure level of the company system with reference to each of the identified hazards. Secondly, it has been identified the possible impacts (consequences) on the business system and the affected impact areas, followed by the evaluation of vulnerability level of the business system against the identified impacts of climate change. Thirdly, the choice of a risk scale (priority) and appropriate interventions of risk mitigation, and finally the implementation of adaptation measures with the appropriate verification of the response effectiveness. The methodological approach has been conducted on two production plant, as object of the study. The activity has included a first phase of discussion with the company and information collection. At the end, a possible set of adaptation actions to face future climate change, with reference to climate events and risk levels previously analysed, has been identified. It is, however, underlined that the purpose of this preliminary study is not to provide a technical and economic feasibility analysis of the suggested interventions, but to illustrate possible adaptation approaches by selecting concrete proposals already implemented in other contexts.
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Leidermark, Ida. "Vulnerabilities of municipal drinking water systems in tourist regions under a changing climate : A case study of Åre ski resort, northern Sweden." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för ekoteknik och hållbart byggande, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-33923.

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Drinking water is a crucial provision for our survival and well-being. However, it is often taken for granted. The environmental objectives in Sweden appear insufficient to ensure drinking water with good quality, because the objectives lack clear protective descriptions, which allow municipalities to determine how to interpret and ensure drinking water. The purpose of this study is to investigate barriers and opportunities for sustainable management of drinking water sources in a tourist region. In order to fulfil the purpose, the study identifies vulnerabilities in the municipal drinking water system with the help from scenario analysis of climate change and tourism development. The study also presents relevant adaptation solutions. The DPSIR framework was used as a tool to categorize and describe the studied problem and was based on a literature study and a mapping of the study area. Åre ski resort was used as a case, and it is supplied with drinking water from two groundwater beds infiltrated by Åresjön (a lake, part of a river). Åresjön is included in an objective to keep drinking water quality standards.     The results show that climate change and tourism development reduces surface and groundwater quality, primarily by increasing microbiological particles. Increases in the number of tourists combined with insufficient monitoring of groundwater levels and infiltration capacity knowledge are unsustainable and are expected to reduce the amount of water in the large groundwater beds. The identified most vulnerable parts of the drinking water system are within the municipal planning process, water production and wastewater treatment. Therefore, the various adaptation solutions address these issues. Direct and indirect adaptations are necessary to ensure sufficient drinking water of good quality until 2100. Tourism development is the main driver for affecting drinking water (if no adaptation measures are implemented).

20180623

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Fabre, Julie. "Changes in the balance between water uses and availability in two Mediterranean hydrosystems : adaptation to climatic and anthropogenic changes." Thesis, Montpellier, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MONTS086/document.

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La thèse propose une approche originale pour évaluer les évolutions à moyen terme des équilibres entre usages et ressources en eau à l’échelle de bassins versants. Un cadre de modélisation intégrant les dynamiques hydro-climatiques et des activités humaines ainsi que les liens entre demandes et ressources en eau a été développé et appliqué sur deux bassins d’échelles différentes et aux usages de l’eau contrastés : l’Hérault (2500 km2, France) et l’Ebre (85000 km2, Espagne). Les écoulements naturels ont été simulés avec un modèle hydrologique conceptuel et un modèle de gestion de barrage piloté par les demandes associées et les contraintes de gestion a été implémenté. Les demandes en eau municipal, industrielle et d'irrigation ont été estimées à partir de données socio-economiques, agronomiques et climatiques. Des débits environnementaux seuils, en-dessous desquels les prélèvements sont limités, ont été pris en compte. La chaîne de modélisation a été calée et validée sous les conditions anthropiques et hydro-climatiques non-stationnaires de 40 années passées, avant d’être appliquée sous quatre combinaisons de scénarios de changements climatiques et d’usages de l’eau, permettant ainsi de différencier les impacts climatiques et anthropiques. Des simulations climatiques de l’exercice CMIP5 ont été utilisées pour générer 18 scénarios climatiques à l’horizon 2050, et un scénario tendanciel des usages de l’eau a été proposé sur la base de tendances socio-écononomiques locales. La disponibilité en eau a été comparée à la demande à travers des indicateurs de fréquence et d’intensité de satisfaction. L'impact des scénarios climatiques sur la disponibilité et la demande en eau pourrait remettre en question les allocations et débits environnementaux envisagés pour les décennies à venir. Les limitations de prélèvements pourraient devenir pus fréquentes, et la pression anthropique sur les milieux aquatiques pourrait s'intensifier. Pour évaluer le potentiel d’adaptation aux changements climatiques, une analyse de sensibilité des indicateurs aux principaux facteurs d’évolution de la demande et de la gestion de barrages a été réalisée. L’efficacité et la robustesse de mesures individuelles varient entre les bassins et selon les nœuds de demande. Un scénario d’adaptation combinant différentes mesures a ensuite été testé. Ce scénario pourrait réduire sensiblement le stress hydriquel, cependant sa robustesse vis-à-vis des incertitudes climatiques pourrait être insuffisante. Afin d'atteindre un équilibre durable entre usages et ressources en eau et de réduire la vulnerabilité des usages de l'eau, une complémentarité doit être trouvée entre des études quantitatives à l'échelle de bassins versants, comme celle menée dans cette thèse, et des études locales de la vulnérablité socio-économique et des capacités d'adaptation
This thesis proposes an original approach to assess multi-decadal changes in the balance between water use and availability in managed river basins. A modeling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for linkages between resource and demand was developed and applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model, and a demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban, industrial and agricultural water demands were estimated from socio-economic and agronomic and climatic drivers. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which water withdrawals were strictly limited. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over a past period of 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon and a trend water use scenario was built based on demographic and local socio-economic trends by the mid-21textsuperscript{st}century. Indicators comparing water supply to demand were computed. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. To assess the efficiency of potential adaptation measures under climate change scenarios, the sensitivity of water stress to variations in the main drivers of water demand and dam management was tested. The effectiveness and robustness of individual measures varied between the basins and within each basin. Finally an adaptation scenario combining different measures was tested in both basins, using the integrative modeling framework. This scenario led to encouraging results regarding the decrease of water stress. However, the adaptation strategies were shown to be insufficiently robust to climate change uncertainties. To achieve a sustainable balance between water availability and demand and reduce the vulnerability of water uses to climate change, a complementarity needs to be found between basin-scale studies of the water balance, such as the ones conducted in this thesis, and local assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity
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der, Forst Ellinor [Verfasser], and Jürgen [Akademischer Betreuer] Scheffran. "Climate Change Vulnerability of Socio-Ecological Systems in Coastal Areas of River Basins in Mexico and South Africa - from Assessment to Management / Ellinor der Forst ; Betreuer: Jürgen Scheffran." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1161530444/34.

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31

Holsten, Anne. "Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6683/.

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Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.
Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.
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32

Courquin, Valentin. "Caractérisation, impacts, et gestion de la variabilité climatique sur l'activité des entreprises européennes." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, ENSAM, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024ENAME059.

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Dans un contexte de durcissement des réglementations, les entreprises européennes sont confrontées à des défis croissants concernant la gestion des risques climatiques physiques. La directive CSRD exige désormais des entreprises qu’elles évaluent l'impact de ces risques sur leurs activités, rendant indispensables des solutions précises et exploitables. Cette thèse propose de répondre à ces exigences en développant un Diagnostic de Vulnérabilité Climatique (DVC), destiné à évaluer et quantifier les risques climatiques physiques pour chaque actif géolocalisé d'une entreprise. La méthodologie s'appuie sur l'analyse de données climatiques et le calcul d'indicateurs climatiques en utilisant les modèles de réanalyses et de projections climatiques les plus récents. Ces indicateurs permettent d'élaborer des métriques spécifiques, telles que les anomalies et les accélérations climatiques, afin d’évaluer plus précisément l'impact des risques climatiques physiques. Le DVC constitue ainsi un outil clé pour la conception de stratégies d'adaptation aux risques climatiques, avec une attention particulière portée aux risques d'inondation
In the context of tightening regulations, European companies are facing increasing challenges in managing physical climate risks. The CSRD directive now requires businesses to assess the impact of these risks on their operations, making precise and actionable solutions essential. This thesis aims to address these requirements by developing a Climate Vulnerability Assessment (DVC), designed to evaluate and quantify physical climate risks for each geolocated asset of a company. The methodology is based on the analysis of climate data and the calculation of climate indicators using the latest reanalysis models and climate projections. These indicators enable the development of specific metrics, such as climate anomalies and accelerations, to more accurately assess the impact of physical climate risks. The DVC thus serves as a key tool for designing adaptation strategies to climate risks, with a particular focus on flood risks
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Holsten, Anne [Verfasser], and Jürgen P. [Akademischer Betreuer] Kropp. "Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context / Anne Holsten. Betreuer: Jürgen P. Kropp." Potsdam : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1037479475/34.

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Soares, Marta Coutinho Martins Bruno. "Performing climate change vulnerability assessments at the local level in Scotland : challenges, analytical trade-offs, and implications for local adaptation." Thesis, University of the West of Scotland, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.744776.

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Ragazzo, Carlotta <1991&gt. "Climate change risk assessment for the oil and gas industry: identification of potential impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies in coastal areas. Analisi del rischio legato ai cambiamenti climatici per il settore petrolifero: identificazione di vulnerabilità, impatti e strategie di adattamento nelle aree costiere." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/9704.

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I cambiamenti climatici rappresentano un problema globale inequivocabile con ripercussioni non solo sui sistemi ambientali ma anche su quelli antropici. Numerose sono le evidenze che indicano come tali sistemi siano influenzati dai cambiamenti nei parametri meteo-climatici come ad esempio: temperatura, aumento del livello del mare, eventi di mareggiata. Inoltre, come riportato dal Gruppo Intergovernativo sul Cambiamento Climatico (Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) le conseguenze del riscaldamento globale saranno ancora peggiori nel futuro se non saranno implementate opportune strategie di mitigazione e adattamento. Per quanto concerne l’industria petrolifera e del gas naturale (Oil & Gas, O&G), questa è considerata uno dei settori economici e industriali particolarmente vulnerabili a causa degli ambienti in cui si trova ad operare (es. pianure alluvionali) e alla suscettibilità delle risorse naturali impiegate nei processi che caratterizzano le diverse fasi del ciclo di vita (es. estrazione, stoccaggio e trasporto). È evidente quindi come i cambiamenti climatici possano incidere direttamente sull’integrità degli impianti petroliferi (es. gasdotti/oleodotti, pozzi di estrazione etc.), sui tempi di estrazione e sulle capacità di stoccaggio, nonché sulla continuità delle attività di piattaforme. In particolare, le aree costiere, dove sono localizzate gran parte delle attività economiche tra cui le infrastrutture energetiche, sembrano essere maggiormente sensibili ai possibili impatti legati al cambiamento climatico, come l’aumento dei fenomeni di: erosione, inondazione costiera, sommersione dovuta all’innalzamento del livello del mare.Ne deriva quindi la crescente necessità di definire una metodologia atta a identificare e prioritizzare le aree costiere maggiormente vulnerabili ai possibili effetti dei cambiamenti climatici. L’obiettivo principale è quello di sviluppare un indice di vulnerabilità costiera che permetta di individuare le regioni costiere più suscettibili ai fenomeni di inondazione, erosione costiera e mareggiate; definendo poi opportune strategie di adattamento per mitigare i rischi attesi e garantire una gestione sicura e sostenibile del territorio costiero e delle infrastrutture energetiche localizzate in prossimità della linea di costa. Al fine di raggiungere tale obiettivo, è stata condotta un’iniziale revisione della letteratura scientifica riguardo metodologie, strumenti e indici utili per la valutazione degli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici sull’industria dell’O&G. Tale attività ha permesso l’elaborazione di un quadro concettuale di riferimento utile a individuare le relazioni causa-effetto tra le variazioni dei parametri meteo-climatici e i principali impatti fisici, ambientali e socio-economici attesi sia in mare aperto sia lungo la linea di costa. In seguito, al fine di costruire il CVI, sono stati identificati alcuni indicatori per la valutazione della pericolosità associata ai fenomeni di cambiamento climatico (es. anomalie future di innalzamento del livello del mare e mareggiate estreme) e alcuni indicatori di esposizione e vulnerabilità fisico-ambientale dell’ambiente costiero (elevazione, erosione e pendenza del territorio costiero) utili per valutare le aree a maggior rischio di inondazione/erosione per le infrastrutture energetiche (es. impianti di produzione, estrazione, pozzi di perforazione). Gli indicatori proposti, sono stati implementati per un’area pilota all’interno della regione Mediterranea caratterizzata dalla presenza di numerosi impianti petroliferi, elaborati attraverso l’utilizzo di sistemi informativi geografici al fine di supportare le compagnie petrolifere nella definizione di aree prioritarie, dove indirizzare strategie di adattamento.
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Comte, Adrien. "Coral reefs ecosystem services under global environmental change : interdisciplinary approaches to guide science and action." Thesis, Brest, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018BRES0002/document.

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Les changements environnementaux globaux (CEG) menacent les écosystèmes marins et les populations humaines qui en dépendent. Une recherche scientifique croissante tente d’évaluer les impacts des changements environnementaux sur les écosystèmes et les services écosystémiques, notamment pour guider les politiques publiques. Focalisée sur les systèmes socio-écologiques (SSE) des récifs coralliens, cette thèse analyse les approches proposées dans la littérature et conçoit de nouvelles méthodologies, évaluations et indicateurs pour guider la science et l’action publique. Nous montrons qu’une stratégie de recherche régionale doit prendre en compte la complexité et produire de meilleures projections des impacts des CEG sur les récifs coralliens et les services associés. Nous cartographions des indicateurs à l’échelle globale pour évaluer où la dépendance des sociétés aux récifs coralliens sera affectée par les menaces globales dues à un niveau de CO2 élevé. Nous analysons comment la science répond aux impacts des CEG sur les récifs coralliens et nous identifions des pistes pour la recherche. Enfin, nous opérationnalisons une facette de la vulnérabilité, la capacité d’adaptation écologique, pour servir d’outil pour évaluer l’effectivité des actions locales dans un contexte de CEG. Ce manuscrit contribue à des avancées théoriques et méthodologiques sur l’évaluation des impacts, de la vulnérabilité et de l’adaptation aux CEG. Il développe des approches interdisciplinaires pour l’étude des SSE et des services écosystémiques, ciblant les récifs coralliens comme étude de cas. Enfin, il analyse l’émergence d’un champ scientifique sur les solutions aux GEC pour les récifs coralliens
Global environmental change (GEC) in the ocean threatens marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. A growing scientific effort is attempting to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on ecosystems and ecosystem services and guide policy-making to respond to this global issue. Focusing on social-ecological systems of coral reefs, this thesis critically reviews the approaches put forward in the literature to understand gaps and to design new methodologies, assessments, and indicators to guide science and policy. Our findings show that a regionally targeted strategy of research should address complexity and provide more realistic projections about the impacts of GEC on coral reefs ecosystems and ecosystem services. We map global-scale indicators to understand where human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats expected in a high-CO2 world. We then analyze how science is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research.Finally, we attempt to operationalize an overlooked component of vulnerability assessments, ecological adaptive capacity, to serve as a tool to help assess where local actions can be effective in the context of climate change. This manuscript contributes to theoretical and methodological advances to evaluate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to GEC. It develops interdisciplinary approaches for the study of social-ecological systems and ecosystem services, targeting coral reefs as a case study. Finally, it synthesizes critically the emergence of a scientific field on solutions to GEC for coral reef social-ecological systems
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37

Wen-ChienWang and 王文千. "Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Breeding Birds in Taiwan." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/72nmaj.

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碩士
國立成功大學
生命科學系
107
The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) framework definition includes three dimensions: exposure is the extent to which a species exposed to future climate threats; sensitivity is the extent to which a population dynamic responds to climate change; adaptive capacity is the ability of a species to eliminate climate threats through its own adjustments, such as migration and evolutionary adaptation. To date, many studies have used species traits to conduct CCVA, however this approach may not reflect the actual state of the species to climate change. While compared to temperate regions, there is still a knowledge gap in the vulnerability assessment of subtropical species. This study used the Taiwan Breeding Bird Survey (BBS Taiwan), the climate database of Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP) and species traits to conduct CCVA. In addition, we advanced the methodology of sensitivity in CCVA instead of using species traits. We evaluated 83 breeding birds with sufficient data. To assess exposure, we used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to predict current and future distributions of species. We used future predictions in two periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), and under three scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) to calculate five exposure metrics: predicted range changes (PRC), protected areas changes (PAC), shape index changes (SIC), core area index changes (CAIC) and population migration effort (PME). To evaluate sensitivity, we used partial least square path modeling (PLS-PM) to distinguish whether the bird population dynamics are sensitive to climate. Adaptive capacity was evaluated based on the species traits of clutch size and diet breadth. The results can be divided into four categories: (1) Highly vulnerable, including 13 species; (2) Potential adapters, including 4 species; (3) Potential persisters, including 19 species; (4) 11 species of High latent risk. Compared with Taiwan National Red List, only 5 species are Nationally Near-threatened (NNT), meaning that the potential threat of climate change is still largely underestimated, and there is a considerable gap in conservation. This study is the first CCVA of bird in low latitude of Asia and provides four categories of vulnerability need different strategy to promote the conservation of Taiwanese birds.
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38

Wang, Shih-Wei, and 王世為. "Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change on SustainableWater Quality Management Systems." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78865989667992441739.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
生物環境系統工程學研究所
94
Sustainable development is to continue economic and social developments without degrading environmental quality and to keep cumulative impacts from exceeding the environmental carrying capacity. The sustainable environmental management strongly depends on the variation of environmental carrying capacity caused by the climate change. Stream assimilative capacity is an important environmental carrying capacity which is related with key factors, including water temperature, streamflow, and background pollution. Climate change may influence these factors and further affect the stream assimilative capacity. Therefore, the main factors which affect the stream assimilative capacity and water quality are discussed in this study and used to assess the impact with different climate change scenarios. A conceptual and physical model, Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF), is applied to simulate the stream flow under different climate. Meanwhile, a water quality model (QUAL2E) is used to estimate the concentrations of BOD5 and DO with those variable stream flows. At last, the results of climate change impact assessment on stream assimilative capacity can be used to address the directions of future research on adaptation and also provide useful references to setup water quality standard and to manage assimilative capacity. The Tochen River is taken as a case study in this study. The results indicate that the climate change increases the water temperature, decreases the streamflow in dry seasons, and leads to higher BOD5 concentration and lower stream assimilative capacity.
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39

Huang, Shiang-Wei, and 黃翔瑋. "Vulnerability Assessment of Rainfall-induced Shallow Landslide Under Extreme Climate." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11447888949696020945.

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碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
100
Under the influence of climate change in recent years, climate abnormality frequently occurs in Taiwan area. Between 2004 and 2008 (Typhoon Jangmi, Shilaku, Kalmaegi), Taiwan area had 1,000 mm single-day rainfall and approximately 2,000 mm three-day rainfall. During 88 Flood in 2009 (Typhoon Morakot) Pingtung County even had 1400 mm single-day rainfall. Consecutive extreme rainfall events also caused serious disasters of collapse and debris flows in hillside across Taiwan. Landslide is frequently the main cause to hillside disaster. The climate data from other areas of earth indicate the large amount of rainfall due to abnormal climate could be common in the future. Taiwan area has very special topography with alpine woodland and statutory hillside covering 74% of whole island area, so Taiwan is very susceptible to landslide disaster due to abnormal climate change. This is not only going to jeopardize the safety of hillside residents but also cause environmental disasters to downstream cities. To understand the possible influence of climate change induced extreme rainfall event to wide-range hillside disaster. In order to understand the effects of shallow landslide triggered by extreme rainfall on buildings and roads in Kaoping River Basin. This study aims to analyze shallow landslide problems using the deterministic method, which is based on the limit equilibrium method. The physical and conceptual models for each slope unit, including physical, physiographic, mechanical and geological parameters were established. By means of this, the landslide susceptibility of the study area under the extreme rainfall can be obtained. According to landslide characteristics and the location of the landslides, the vulnerability rank of the study region can be made. Furthermore, the risk map of the landslide disaster for the study area can also be established. Findings of this study reveal that the landslide risk for the areas of Namasia region in Chi-Shan River watershed ,Meishan resort at Lao-Nong River watershed and Taoyuan district are relatively high. It is expected that the results can provide useful information to the authority for the decision making.
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40

Palmer, Tami. "A coastal and social vulnerability assessment to climatic hazards in Jamaica." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/34144.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
Coastal areas provide habitats that are a source of natural protection, food, recreation, and livelihood. These ecosystems are designed to withstand the threat of natural hazards to protect inland areas. However, dynamic, and extreme climatic changes threaten to damage such areas, particularly in low-lying, small island states as Jamaica. With the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) method, areas of coastal exposure were identified and assessed using the InVEST Model. It was found that 23% of the coastline is highly exposed to climatic hazards across 177 communities. Validation of the model outputs with the Disaster Inventory DesInventar Database revealed that there was statistical evidence to state that significantly more frequent events causing damage and loss of life or property occurred in areas the model identified as highly exposed than in the less exposed areas. The island's socio-economic conditions at the parish level were analyzed with descriptive statistics to determine that 48% of the population has at least one unmet basic need, with the South to South-East parishes comparably more vulnerable due to the population size and exposure in coastal areas. Therefore, the findings of this assessment will be useful for disaster planning and coastal conservation and may be replicated in similar countries, especially surrounding islands towards a regional assessment. The creation of a combined coastal and social vulnerability index provides a balanced view of both major concerns on the susceptibility of populated coastal regions. This index is critical to the advancement of how we can comparatively quantify these characteristics and highlight areas for holistic improvement of lives, not addressing both concerns in isolation.
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41

Li, Kuen-Xue, and 李昆學. "Study on Methods of Semi-Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51233137017677322345.

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碩士
國立暨南國際大學
土木工程學系
104
The preparation of climate change adaptation plan at the county level in Taiwan was started in 2000, and the initiative has moved into the second phase as of 2015. Vulnerability assessment is an important step to be carried out in the comprehensive procedure for drafting adaptation strategies. Various approaches have been proposed for the vital step of vulnerability assessment. Different schemes were used in different counties in Taiwan, when the adaptation plan studies were conducted. It is of great interest to investigate for a rational approach for vulnerability assessment. This study is intended to address this important topic through results of two different types of methods, including one semi-quantitative approach and the other quantitative. The semi-quantitative approach is based on an Expert Assessment Method (ESA). The elicitation of objective expert opinion is obtained through series of in-depth discussions and workshops of solicited experts. Main results of this approach include (1) qualitative vulnerability report, (2) key issues of the studied subject area, and (3) comparative vulnerability grouping. The quantitative approach used in this study is a combined Delphi-AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. Seven experts were selected for the process of obtaining expert opinions throughout this part of study. Factors to be adopted for the quantitative investigation were first screened by the expert opinions, and then weights for each factor were estimated through results of AHP questionnaire. Finally, the vulnerability index was computed using statistical data of factors and the associated AHP weights, and comparative vulnerability ranking can be obtained. It is found that both approaches are not perfect. Results of the semi-quantitative approach is likely affected by factors including level of expert participation, preference of authorities, level of issue familiarity of the operating team and else. Whereas results of the quantitative approach are easily affected by the availability and reliability of statistical data of significant factors. This study proposed a scheme that combined the use of both the quantitative analysis results and the semi-quantitative procedures. Should time be permitted, this proposed procedure should yield rational and well-thought assessment of vulnerability.
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42

Huang, Hsuan-Ming, and 黃宣銘. "An assessment of spatial vulnerability in Taipei City from climate change adaptation perspective." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/08841896049811803164.

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碩士
中國文化大學
景觀學系
101
In recent years. The natural disasters caused impact on the living environment of human by global climate change, it’s not only a threat to the lives and property of the people, but also produced in association with the security concerns of the living environment. So about the issue of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) adaptation (adaptation) point of view, the use of "adaptation" to further discuss how to reduce the impact of climate change brought about by the global impact. For adaptation study, researchers in various fields of the global vulnerability (vulnerability) and the restoring force (resilience) two concepts explore current research is still "vulnerability assessment studies mostly, mostly in natural disasters vulnerability (such as: sediment Disaster) analysis of the impact to the affected areas, the vulnerability of the region for a specific disaster assessment, but relative lack of the biophysical (biophysical) land use as well as the surroundings of their land formed spatial assessment. Therefore, this study in Taipei as the scope of the study, and land use biophysical discuss the basis of the concept of vulnerability, vulnerability assessment focuses on land use biophysical exposure (exposure) and impact (impact)relationship, and then use the fuzzy analytic network process (Fuzzy Analytical network Process FANP), geographic information systems (Geographic Information System, GIS) and land suitability analysis method (Land Suitability Analysis, LSA), the establishment of land-use exposure impact assessment structure and analysis of the vulnerability of the land in Taipei in 1971 and 2006, the use of bio-physical surrounding environment of its formation, and applications to explore Taipei possible adaptation strategies for climate change (adaptation policy).
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43

Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse. "Assessment of the vulnerability of Ethiopian agriculture to climate change and farmers’ adaptation strategies." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/28969.

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This study focused on two central themes. The first addressed the vulnerability of farmers to climate change at household and regional levels. The second theme analysed determinants of adaptation measures and factors influencing the perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Three approaches are employed to address the above themes. The first approach is the vulnerability to expected poverty approach. It is based on estimating the probability that a given shock or set of shocks moves consumption by households below a given minimum level (such as a consumption poverty line) or forces the consumption level to stay below the given minimum requirement if it is already below this level. This is adopted to assess vulnerability at household level. Secondly, the method of principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to create vulnerability indices to conduct a comparative analysis of the vulnerability across regional states. Lastly, the Heckman selection probit model is used to analyse the two-step process of adaptation, which consists of perceiving a change in climate followed by taking appropriate adaptation measures in response. Results indicate that vulnerability is highly sensitive to a minimum income requirement (poverty line) that farm households require to survive on a daily basis. For example, when the daily minimum income is fixed at US$0.3 per day, only 7 percent of farmers are vulnerable to future climate change, whereas at a minimum income level of US$2 per day, 93 percent of the farmers are vulnerable to climate extremes. Therefore, policies should encourage income generation and asset holding, both of which will enable consumption smoothing during and immediately after harsh climatic events. Results further show that the relatively least-developed, semi-arid and arid regions namely, Afar and Somali, are highly vulnerable to climate change. The large Oromia region, which is characterised both by areas of good agricultural production in the highlands and midlands and by recurrent droughts, especially in the lowlands, is also vulnerable. Furthermore, the Tigray region, which experiences recurring droughts, is also vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change in comparison with the other regions. Integrated rural development policies, aimed at alleviating poverty with special emphasis on the relatively less-developed regions of the country (i.e., Afar and Somali), can play a double role in reducing poverty and in increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. The study also reveals that experienced farmers, more educated farmers, better-off farmers, better-informed farmers, farmers who access extension and credit services and those with stronger social networks are more likely to perceive climate change and adapt. Government policies and investment strategies that support the provision of and access to education; credit; extension services on crop and livestock production; information on climate and adaptation measures across different agro-ecologies and encourage informal social networks are necessary to better adapt to climate change in Ethiopia.
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010.
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
unrestricted
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44

Huang, Po-Hsuan, and 黃柏勛. "The Impact Assessment on Vulnerability and Resilience of Water Resources System under Climate Change." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47099314136290824757.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
生物環境系統工程學研究所
101
This study aims to access the changes between water supply systems and subjects of water demand under the influences of climate change with the analysis framework of vulnerability and resilience. First, the carrying capacity of the Touchien watershed water supply system is simulated by the water supply system dynamics model based on future climate scenarios derived from the general circulation models (GCMs) output data. Then, the gaps between water supply and demands are further analyzed. Furthermore, the quantitative indicators are applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the Touchien watershed and the changes of resilience considering the impacts of climate change. The results indicate that a lower carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change and significant increase in future water demands will lead to an insufficient water supply in the future. According to the spatial distribution of vulnerability analysis, despite that all regions in the Touchien watershed do not reached a high degree of vulnerability, some of them have an increased vulnerability due to the increase in public water demand. The regions with an increased vulnerability should have top priority to implement the adaptation strategies. The resilience indicators show that both public water resilience and agricultural water resilience have a decrease trend under climate change, which means a longer time for the water supply system to recover from a water shortage. In addition, the agricultural water resilience in first growing period is not only lower than second growing period, but also facing a greater decline. Summary of research results can explain that climate change has a serious impact on water supply system. Moreover, the assessment of carrying capacity, vulnerability and resilience are consistent for each GCM and increase the possibility of research findings. Therefore, this study worth the attentions from related water agencies which should develop adaptation actions as soon as possible.
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45

Chakraborty, Biswajit. "An assessment of the vulnerability of Indian subcontinent to greenhouse gas-induced climate change." Thesis, 1995. http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/12345678/2640.

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46

Sharma, Jagmohan. "Vulnerability of Forests to Climatic and Non-Climatic Stressors : A Multi-Scale Assessment for Indian Forests." Thesis, 2015. http://etd.iisc.ac.in/handle/2005/3660.

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During the 21st century, climatic change and non-climatic stressors are likely to impact forests leading to large-scale forest and biodiversity loss, and diminished ecological benefits. Assessing the vulnerability of forests and addressing the sources of vulnerability is an important risk management strategy. The overall goal of this research work is to develop methodological approaches at different scales and apply them to assess the vulnerability of forests in India for developing strategies for forest adaptation. Indicator-based methodological approaches have been developed for vulnerability assessment at local, landscape and national scales under current climate scenario, and at national scale under future climate scenario. Under current climate scenario, the concept of inherent vulnerability of forests has emerged by treating vulnerability as a characteristic internal property of a forest ecosystem independent of exposure. This approach to assess vulnerability is consistent with the framework presented in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 2014). Assessment of vulnerability under future climate scenario is presented only at national scale due to challenges associated with model-based climate projections and impact assessment at finer scales. The framework to assess inherent vulnerability of forests at local scale involves selection of vulnerability indicators and pair wise comparison method (PCM) to assign the indicator weights. The methodology is applied in the field to a 300-ha moist deciduous case study forest (Aduvalli Protected Forest, Chikmagalur district) in the Western Ghats area, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the study indicate that two indicators - ‘preponderance of invasive species’ and ‘forest dependence of community’ - are the major drivers of inherent vulnerability at present. The methodology developed to assess the inherent vulnerability at landscape scale involves use of vulnerability indicators, the pair wise comparison method, and geographic information system (GIS) tools. Using the methodology, assessment of inherent vulnerability of Western Ghats Karnataka (WGK) landscape forests is carried out. Four vulnerability indicators namely, biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover and slope having weights 0.552, 0.266, 0.123 and 0.059, respectively are used. The study shows that forests at one-third of the grid points in the landscape have high and very high inherent vulnerability, and natural forests are inherently less vulnerable than plantation forests. The methodology used for assessment of forest inherent vulnerability at the national scale was same as used at landscape scale. 40% of forest grid points in India are assessed with high and very high inherent vulnerability. Except in pockets, the forests in the three biodiversity hotspots in India i.e., the Western Ghats in peninsular India, northeastern India, and the northern Himalayan region are assessed to have low to medium inherent vulnerability. Vulnerability of forests under future climate scenario at national scale is estimated by combining the results of assessment of climate change impact and inherent vulnerability. In the present study, ensemble climatology from five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) climate models for RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 in short (2030s) and long term (2080s) is used as input to IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator) dynamic vegetation model. Forest grid points projected to experience vegetation-shift to a new plant functional type (PFT) under future climate are categorized under ‘extremely high’ vulnerability category. Such forest grid points in India are 22 and 23% in the short term under RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and these percentages increase to 31 and 37% in the long term. IBIS simulated vegetation projections are also compared with LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena) simulated projections. Both the vegetation models agree that forests at about one-third of the grid points could be impacted by future climate but the spatial distribution of impacted grid points differs between the models. Vulnerability assessment is a powerful tool for building long-term resilience in the forest sector in the context of projected climate change. From this study, three forest scenarios emerge in India for developing adaptation strategies namely: (a) less disturbed primary forests; (b) degraded and fragmented primary forests; and (c) secondary (plantation) forests. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity are critical to reduce forest vulnerability of less disturbed primary forests. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build resilience. Mainstreaming forest adaptation in India through Forest Working Plans and realignment of the forestry programs is necessary to manage the risk to forests under climate change.
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47

Sharma, Jagmohan. "Vulnerability of Forests to Climatic and Non-Climatic Stressors : A Multi-Scale Assessment for Indian Forests." Thesis, 2015. http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/2005/3660.

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Abstract:
During the 21st century, climatic change and non-climatic stressors are likely to impact forests leading to large-scale forest and biodiversity loss, and diminished ecological benefits. Assessing the vulnerability of forests and addressing the sources of vulnerability is an important risk management strategy. The overall goal of this research work is to develop methodological approaches at different scales and apply them to assess the vulnerability of forests in India for developing strategies for forest adaptation. Indicator-based methodological approaches have been developed for vulnerability assessment at local, landscape and national scales under current climate scenario, and at national scale under future climate scenario. Under current climate scenario, the concept of inherent vulnerability of forests has emerged by treating vulnerability as a characteristic internal property of a forest ecosystem independent of exposure. This approach to assess vulnerability is consistent with the framework presented in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 2014). Assessment of vulnerability under future climate scenario is presented only at national scale due to challenges associated with model-based climate projections and impact assessment at finer scales. The framework to assess inherent vulnerability of forests at local scale involves selection of vulnerability indicators and pair wise comparison method (PCM) to assign the indicator weights. The methodology is applied in the field to a 300-ha moist deciduous case study forest (Aduvalli Protected Forest, Chikmagalur district) in the Western Ghats area, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the study indicate that two indicators - ‘preponderance of invasive species’ and ‘forest dependence of community’ - are the major drivers of inherent vulnerability at present. The methodology developed to assess the inherent vulnerability at landscape scale involves use of vulnerability indicators, the pair wise comparison method, and geographic information system (GIS) tools. Using the methodology, assessment of inherent vulnerability of Western Ghats Karnataka (WGK) landscape forests is carried out. Four vulnerability indicators namely, biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover and slope having weights 0.552, 0.266, 0.123 and 0.059, respectively are used. The study shows that forests at one-third of the grid points in the landscape have high and very high inherent vulnerability, and natural forests are inherently less vulnerable than plantation forests. The methodology used for assessment of forest inherent vulnerability at the national scale was same as used at landscape scale. 40% of forest grid points in India are assessed with high and very high inherent vulnerability. Except in pockets, the forests in the three biodiversity hotspots in India i.e., the Western Ghats in peninsular India, northeastern India, and the northern Himalayan region are assessed to have low to medium inherent vulnerability. Vulnerability of forests under future climate scenario at national scale is estimated by combining the results of assessment of climate change impact and inherent vulnerability. In the present study, ensemble climatology from five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) climate models for RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 in short (2030s) and long term (2080s) is used as input to IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator) dynamic vegetation model. Forest grid points projected to experience vegetation-shift to a new plant functional type (PFT) under future climate are categorized under ‘extremely high’ vulnerability category. Such forest grid points in India are 22 and 23% in the short term under RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and these percentages increase to 31 and 37% in the long term. IBIS simulated vegetation projections are also compared with LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena) simulated projections. Both the vegetation models agree that forests at about one-third of the grid points could be impacted by future climate but the spatial distribution of impacted grid points differs between the models. Vulnerability assessment is a powerful tool for building long-term resilience in the forest sector in the context of projected climate change. From this study, three forest scenarios emerge in India for developing adaptation strategies namely: (a) less disturbed primary forests; (b) degraded and fragmented primary forests; and (c) secondary (plantation) forests. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity are critical to reduce forest vulnerability of less disturbed primary forests. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build resilience. Mainstreaming forest adaptation in India through Forest Working Plans and realignment of the forestry programs is necessary to manage the risk to forests under climate change.
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48

Chen, Hong-Wei, and 陳宏偉. "The Climate Change Impact on the Vulnerability Assessment of Required Irrigation Water in the Rice Fields." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16793814328422616710.

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碩士
逢甲大學
都市計畫與空間資訊學系
103
Global food security is currently a very important issue. The rice crop water requirement and natural environment is closely linked to the climate change, but the recent changes in weather, like the extreme rainfall frequency and increasing intensity, have been leading to uneven distribution of water resources and become more serious cases. It has been a significant challenge for the water management authorities to ensure the required rice crop water for normal growth. The study area is in the Taichung City. The data of the meteorological stations was used to analyze the needs of crop growth. The Penman-Monteith equation was applied to estimate the reference crop water requirement. Finally, the current water supply and demand was evaluated, and the adjustment was suggested to enhance the effectiveness of irrigation and water resource allocation. This study found that the temperature would increase in the five GCM scenarios, leading to indirect impact to the evapotranspiration and increasing crop water demand. But the future rainfall average would be increasing, which also affects the utilization of rainfall. Overall, the irrigation demand would decrease. Finally, the spatial interpolation and spatial statistics of each factor was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability. Most of the areas in Taichung are in Level 2 to 3 in the current situation, mostly in the western coast zones of Dadu, Qingshui, and Wuqi. These areas are those of less rainfall but higher demand of crop water. Although the results of GCMs scenarios showed the decreasing need of crop water, the overall analysis by GIS indicated the increasing trend of vulnerability. The study results showed that the study area may face water shortage because of uneven water resources.
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49

Lei, Ren-Jie, and 雷人傑. "A Study on Vulnerability assessment of Localization and adaptation strategies in coastal areas under climate change." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20164634251232267214.

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碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
100
Under the influence of climate change, extreme weather has caused destructions and damages happening frequently around the world. Typhoon of MORAKOT in 2009, it brought over 3000mm of rainfall within only three days, and also caused to complex damages such as landslides, driftwoods and dust sources etc. For the sake of avoiding possible impacts influenced by climate change, there are many scholars and researchers discussing the extreme weather in Taiwan. However, seldom researchers investigate coastal vulnerability and possible induced complex damages in Taiwan. Therefore, in this study, by reference the coastal vulnerability method of USGS and to integrate index factors from the questionnaire and appropriate classification, the local coastal vulnerability and risk assessment were established. Based on coastal town unit and combined with GIS, the suitable risk map of coastal area in Taiwan draws.Then, the vulnerability index related with landslides, driftwoods and dust sources was discussing. Finally, based on the risk maps and refer to related coastal adjustment strategy from the domestic and the international method, this study analyzed relevant suggestions toward the high-risk towns at Taiwan and Gaoping River surroundings. From research analysis results, the local coastal risk map which drawing in two kinds of techniques indicated the same tendency that the west coastal area is weaker than the east coastal area, while the south coastal area is weaker than the north coastal area. But, Eastern region of Wujie and Jhuangwei townships at Ilan county display to have the highest risk probably because of high intensity of rainfall and high usage of seashore land. Hunei and Cianjhen display the highest-risk districts in Southwestern coastal area. The modification methods in this study become relatively conform to the current situation of coastal area in Taiwan after verified by typhoon induced disaster and damaged. The local coastal vulnerability and risk assessment method and risk map of Taiwan could be provided the reference of prevention master plan of coastal area.
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50

Yu-ShanSu and 蘇郁珊. "The Vulnerability Assessment of Island Area on Climate Change: The Case Study of Penghu County, Taiwan." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/csrvpy.

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碩士
國立成功大學
都市計劃學系
105
Nowadays the global climate and environment changes, resulting the land use planning based on disaster prevention is one of the important issues in the future. Especially for island country is more important, the island is a space closure system, belongs to the high risk area, that the disaster caused by the outside effect is not enough to adjust ability. In the past relevant research, the impact of vulnerability data were collected at one point in time, and also a lack of discussion on space impact influence. However, the different land use zoning had spatial structure differences that was not easy to control the complex relationship of environmental impact in effect and was unable to understand the vulnerability in different land characteristics, and to discussion on development trend. Based on the above reasons, this study takes Penghu as the research area. First, selecting the 10 important vulnerability indicators, include the natural environment, social and economic aspects. Second, it cut into 20M × 20M grid cells. Appling the UNEP (2005) Vulnerability analysis method to investigate environmental sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation of island coastal area development. Finally, based on cellular automata theory, combining the vulnerability assessment, Cellular automata(CA) and Markov-chain model, simulating space distribution situation of future developing land. The results could be the spatial strategies references for coastal land use, disaster prevention and island city development in the future.
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