Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate information'

A prototype Climate Information System (CIS) is developed to manage and display climatic data as part of the Navy's Tactical Environmental Support System (TESS). The CIS reduces the time and effort required to locate, ingest and analyze climatic data. The CIS remedies accessibility problems of existing climatologies by using a Data Base Management System (DBMS) to manage on-line data sets. The CIS computer graphics improve data comprehensibility by remapping data to common projections. The CIS design rationale and implementation methodology are documented. The climatic data requirements for TESS are defined. The CIS capabilities are demonstrated with sample data sets which meet some of these requirements. The CIS design allows additional data sets to be added as needed

Recent climate changes show that the historical record is not an appropriate analog for future climate conditions. This understanding calls into question management decisions that assume climate stationarity and consequently the demand for climate information has increased in order to help frame climate risk more accurately. However, deficits in knowledge about climate impacts and weak connections between existing information and resource managers are two barriers to effective incorporation of climate information in resource management, development, risk management, and other climate-sensitive decisions. In research presented here, I showcase results that address knowledge gaps in the impact of climate on glacial resources in Bolivia, South America. I present a mixing model analysis using isotopic and anion tracers to estimate that glacial meltwater contributed about 50% of the water to streams and reservoirs in La Paz region of Bolivia during the 2011 wet and 2012 dry seasons. To assess how future warming may impact water supplies, I develop a temperature-driven empirical model to estimated changes in a future glacial area. Surface temperature changes were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of global climate models produced for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report and for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In both scenarios, declines in glacial area are substantial. For many small glaciers, temperatures at the toe of each glacier rise above the glacier's maximum elevation by 2050 suggesting that water resources will be substantially impacted with continued warming. While these results address a knowledge gap, the extent to which they inform resource management is unknown because the research was conducted without an explicit connection to resource management. Information produced in this fashion is generally acknowledged as being less immediately useful for decision-making because of access and comprehension barriers. These challenges may be mollified, however, with information management strategies. Therefore, I present results from an experiment to see if translating and contextualizing existing climate-related information - information produced similarly to the glacier results highlighted above - help facilitate its use. During a drought afflicted period in Arizona and New Mexico, a monthly synthesis of climate impacts information was disseminated to more than 1400 people. Survey responses from 117 people who consulted the information indicated that the majority of them made at least one drought-related decision and the information in the synthesis at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions. In addition, more than 90% of the survey respondents indicated that the synthesis improved their understanding of climate and drought; it also helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. The results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding of climate information.

This thesis reveals the potential pitfalls of relying on the Internet to communicate serious environmental issues. This exploratory research examines the consequences of aspects of the information society focusing on the effects of the Internet upon three reactions to climate communication: public understanding, perception of risk and support for climate change mitigation. It examines the implications of the rise of the information society on young people’s (18-25 year olds) consumption of media and climate science information. The information society literature emerged before the Internet, but predicted the increasing access to information that has arisen in the past two decades and its significant impacts on society and communication. An analytical framework is developed focusing on the sharing of information and the consequences of both misleading information and competition for the user’s attention. To explore the impact of the Internet upon public perception of risks posed by and their understanding of climate change, this research uses a mixed methodological approach. The qualitative approach of focus groups has been selected to establish how young people use the Internet and whether they share and actively engage with climate change information online. A quantitative approach of the experimental method has critically examined the impact of junk information (climate sceptic material) and information overload (competition for users’ attention) on reactions to climate science. The original contribution to knowledge of this thesis was the key finding that the lack of engagement with climate science online poses a more serious issue than the risk of climate sceptic information being virally shared. Simply having the information accessible is not enough when there is so much competition for users’ attention and the ease with which they can filter out climate change information.

Awareness of anthropogenic climate change has increased drastically in the last decade. With the help of the United Nations and the 17 sustainable development goals, there is now an international consensus that measures must be taken urgently. Actions towards reducing our climate impact have started to take place in various industries and one important sector is the food sector. This thesis is addressed to companies that help consumers make smarter and more climate friendly food decisions with the help of climate data. More specifically the scope of this thesis was to develop and evaluate a climate impact visualization application with consumers as the intended target group. The foundation of the intervention included theories in behaviour change and information visualization design principles. The application was evaluated with 11 participants looking to reduce their climate impact. A user study was conducted where the participants used the developed intervention by completing different tasks and then evaluated the experience and the different components of the application. The purpose of the evaluation was to gain qualitative insights of which components should be considered in the development process of a final product. The results indicate that visualizations of the products carbon dioxide emissions, receipt list and personal progress tracking were the most important components for the application. The result also gave positive indications that a similar application could help change the user’s behaviour when purchasing food to a more climate friendly pattern.
Medvetenheten om antropogena klimatförändringar har ökat drastiskt under det senaste decenniet. Med hjälp av FN och de 17 målen för hållbar utveckling finns det nu en internationell enighet om att åtgärder måste vidtas snarast. Åtgärder för att minska vår klimatpåverkan har börjat äga rum i olika branscher och en viktig sektor är livsmedelssektorn. Denna avhandling riktar sig till företag som hjälper konsumenter att fatta smartare och mer klimatvänliga livsmedelsbeslut med hjälp av klimatdata. Mer specifikt omfattar denna avhandling att utveckla och utvärdera en visualiseringsapplikation för klimatpåverkan med konsumenter som den avsedda målgruppen. Grunden för interventionen inkluderar teorier inom beteendeförändring och design-principer för informationsvisualisering. Applikationen utvärderades med 11 deltagare som ville minska sin klimatpåverkan. En användarstudie genomfördes där deltagarna använde den utvecklade applikationen genom att utföra olika uppgifter för att sedan utvärdera upplevelsen och de olika komponenterna i applikationen. Syftet med utvärderingen var att få kvalitativa insikter om vilka komponenter som bör beaktas i utvecklingsprocessen för en slutprodukt. Resultaten indikerar att visualiseringar av produkternas koldioxidutsläpp, kvittolista och personlig framstegsspårning var de viktigaste komponenterna för applikationen. Resultatet gav också positiva indikationer på att en liknande applikation skulle kunna hjälpa till att ändra användarens beteende när man handlar mat till ett mer klimatvänligt mönster.

The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its water and climate systems are in rapid transformation. Relevant and accessible information about water and climate is therefore vital to detect, understand and adapt to the changes. This thesis investigates hydrological monitoring systems, climate model data, and our understanding of hydro-climatic change, for adaptation to water system changes in the Arctic. Results indicate a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which may impede efforts to understand transport and origin of key waterborne constituents. Further development of monitoring cannot rely only on a reconciliation of observations and projections on where climate change will be the most severe, as they diverge in this regard. Climate model simulations of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two recent model generations, but large inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. Late 20th-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution of stored water from permafrost or groundwater to sea level rise. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow matches that of glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all sources when assessing change. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. This especially applies to hydrochemistry monitoring, where a more complete set of monitored basins is motivated, including a general extension for the large unmonitored areas close to the Arctic Ocean. Improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections. Finally, further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers.

At the time of doctoral defence the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Accepted; Paper 4: Manuscript

A changing climate can severely perturb regional hydrology and thereby affect human societies and life in general. To assess and simulate such potential hydrological climate change impacts, hydrological models require reliable meteorological variables for current and future climate conditions. Global climate models (GCMs) provide such information, but their spatial scale is too coarse for regional impact studies. Thus, GCM output needs to be downscaled to a finer scale either through statistical downscaling or through dynamic regional climate models (RCMs). However, even downscaled meteorological variables are often considerably biased and therefore not directly suitable for hydrological impact modeling. This doctoral thesis discusses biases and other challenges related to incorporating climate model output into hydrological studies and evaluates possible strategies to address them. An analysis of possible sources of uncertainty stressed the need for full ensembles approaches, which should become standard practice to obtain robust and meaningful hydrological projections under changing climate conditions. Furthermore, it was shown that substantial biases in current RCM simulations exist and that correcting them is an essential prerequisite for any subsequent impact simulation. Bias correction algorithms considerably improved RCM output and subsequent streamflow simulations under current conditions. In addition, differential split-sample testing was highlighted as a powerful tool for evaluating the transferability of bias correction algorithms to changed conditions. Finally, meaningful projections of future streamflow regimes could be realized by combining a full ensemble approach with bias correction of RCM output: Current flow regimes in Sweden with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to rather damped flow regimes that are dominated by large winter streamflows.

Sentiment analysis is a data mining approach used especially to make sense of the ever-increasing volumes of online media in order to figure out what people think of products, services or issues. Applications to journalism as a form of public debate on wider political issues have been in the minority. This thesis took a form of a literature review to investigate sentiment analysis as an approach that could be used to extend and enhance existing media research methods, particularly that of framing, which concerns the viewpoints that get into the media frame and thus to the public eye. Online news of climate change were used as a topical focus of this treatment. The thesis covered the recent relevant sentiment analysis research to outline the developments, possibilities and challenges of using sentiment analysis to extend framing research. The results of the study indicated that from a journalistic point of view, sentiment analysis research is developing to a good direction, to approaches where the value of domain and topic specific methodologies are increasingly emphasized in addition to more general classification into good-bad or positive-negative. The value of combining sentiment analysis and journalistic framing research could be in making better sense of public debate and shaping of public opinion in important, complex issues such as climate change
Sentimenttianalyysi on tiedonlouhintamenetelmä, josta on erityistä hyötyä alati lisääntyvän verkkomedian ymmärtämisessä. Menetelmää voi käyttää, kun yritetään saada selkoa siitä, mitä ihmiset ajattelevat tuotteista, palveluista tai ilmiöistä. Journalismin ja erityisesti sen poliittiseen debattiin keskittyvän julkisen keskustelun ymmärtämisessä sentimenttianalyysin rooli on ollut vähäisempi. Tämä kandidaatintutkielma on kirjallisuuskatsaus, joka pohtii miten sentimenttianalyysiä voisi hyödyntää mediatutkimuksessa käytetyn kehystämisen (engl. framing) laajentamisessa ja tehostamisessa. Kehystämisessä on kyse niistä median tekemistä rajauksista, jotka määrittävät julkisuuteen pääsevät näkökulmat. Aiherajauksena tässä tutkielmassa on käytetty ilmastonmuutosta käsitteleviä verkkouutisia. Tutkielma käsittelee tuoretta sentimenttianalyysitutkimusta hahmotellessaan lähestymistavan kehitystä, mahdollisuuksia ja haasteita suhteessa kehystämiseen. Sentimenttianalyysin viimeaikaiset kehityslinjat, kuten keskittyminen yhtä tekstiä pienempiin analyysiyksiköihin tai tarkempi käsiteltävien aihepiirien huomioiminen, tukevat sen hyödyntämistä myös mediatutkimuksen välineistössä. Sentimenttianalyysin ja journalistisen kehystämistutkimuksen yhdistämisen hyötynä voidaan nähdä se, että näin voitaisiin kasvattaa analysoitavien aineistojen määrää ja näin saada myös parempi kuva ilmastonmuutoksen kaltaisten isojen ilmiöiden ympärillä käytävästä julkisesta keskustelusta ja julkisen mielipiteen muodostumisesta

The insurance industry is becoming increasingly exposed to the adverse impacts of climate variability and climate change. In developing policies and adapting strategies to better manage climate risk, insurers and reinsurers are therefore engaging directly with the climate modelling community to further understand the predictive capabilities of climate models and to develop techniques to utilise climate model output. With an inherent interest in the present and future frequency and magnitude of extreme climate-related loss events, insurers rely on the climate modelling community to provide informative model projections at the relevant spatial and temporal scales for insurance decisions. Furthermore, given the high economic stakes associated with enacting strategies to address climate change, it is essential that climate model experiments are designed to thoroughly explore the multiple sources of uncertainty. Determining the reliability of model based projections is a precursor to examining their relevance to the insurance industry and more widely to the climate change adaptation community. Designing experiments which adequately account for uncertainty therefore requires careful consideration of the nonlinear and chaotic properties of the climate system. Using the well developed concepts of dynamical systems theory, simple nonlinear chaotic systems are investigated to further understand what is meant by climate under climate change. The thesis questions the conventional paradigm in which long-term climate prediction is treated purely as a boundary value problem (predictability of the second kind). Using simple climate-like models to draw analogies to the climate system, results are presented which support the emerging view that climate prediction ought to be treated as both an initial value problem and a boundary condition problem on all time scales. The research also examines the application of the ergodic assumption in climate modelling and climate change adaptation decisions. By using idealised model experiments, situations in which the ergodic assumption breaks down are illustrated. Consideration is given to alternative model experimental designs which do not rely on the assumption of ergodicity. Experimental results are presented which support the view that large initial condition ensembles are required to detail the changing distribution of climate under altered forcing conditions. It is argued that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction.

The combination of local farming practices (i.e. tiling, channelization) and global climate change has led to an increase in not only the severity, but also the frequency of extreme weather events in the Midwest, including droughts and floods. These can result in severe damage to watersheds, ecosystems, and communities. Climate change adaptations are vital to the maintenance of both sustainability and resilience of agro-ecosystems during severe weather events. They can allow agricultural producers to maintain the many functions of these systems, including food, fiber, and fuel production as well as water filtration, soil stability, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity. Implementation of these adaptations can be difficult for multiple reasons, but information sources, experts, and communities can assist with adoption through the diffusion of information. To assess the ability and willingness of agricultural producers to make these adaptations, and the role of information sources, I utilized survey data in three separate scenarios: 1.) producer interest in the adoption of switchgrass production, a novel adaptation; 2.) the adoption differences between producers who own farmland and those that rent farmland, and 3.) the opinions of experts and community members on the adoption of eight different climate change adaptations by farmers. The first study assesses the adoption of switchgrass, a dedicated biofuel perennial, which can be the first step in the transformation from an unsustainable, energy intensive production regime into a regime that provides both environmental sustainability (through water quality improvements) and financial stability for farmers. This study examines which characteristics predict interest in growing switchgrass through the analysis of a survey completed by farmers in the Clear Creek watershed in rural Iowa. Knowledge of switchgrass, education, and income are all highly correlated with interest in growing switchgrass. Long-term contracts with bio-refineries would also help farmers decrease adoption risk. Additionally, producers who use government agencies as information sources are more knowledgeable of switchgrass production. Results can help establish policies that could influence farmers to shift production from annual crops to perennial native biomass energy crops, and thus would increase the sustainability of the entire system. In areas where agricultural production is intensive, switchgrass production provides the potential to move from a contributor to climate change into a sector that contributes to the mitigation of climate change via reduction in energy-intensive input uses, production of renewable fuels, and sequestration of carbon in the soils. The second study focuses on conservation practice adoption among agricultural producers who rent land versus those who own the land they farm. Tenants and part-owners are farming an increasing number of acres in the United States, while full-owners are farming fewer acres. This shift in ownership is a potential cause for concern because some previous research indicated that tenant and part-owner farmers were not as likely to adopt conservation practices as farmers who owned the land they farmed. This study also uses survey data from the Clear Creek watershed in Iowa, and compares adoption of conservation practices and preferences for conservation information sources between farmers who rent some portion of the land they farm (tenants and part-owners) and farmers who own all of the land they farm (full-owners). Results show that renters are more likely to practice conservation tillage than full-owners, though they are less likely to rotate crops yearly. In addition, renters report using federal government employees (specifically, Natural Resource Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency employees) as their primary sources of conservation information, while full-owners most frequently rely on neighbors and friends and County Extension. These findings are significant for conservation policy because, unlike some past research, they indicate that renters are not resistant to conservation adoption. Finally, the last study examines the opinions of experts and community members about agriculture producers' ability and willingness to adopt adaptations in a large watershed in Iowa. A web-based survey of community members, government officials, and agricultural experts assesses perceptions of: barriers and drivers of adoption, and the adoption of specific adaptation practices. Through their knowledge of the community and their expertise in agriculture, the government, and the environment, the respondents are able to provide valuable information about climate change adaptations and the likelihood of adoption. Results show that transformative adaptations 1.) have more adoption barriers and 2.) will require severe weather events to occur more frequently than incremental adaptations for adoption to occur. This study will help to determine the factors that need to be addressed by governing agencies and resource management groups in order to reduce agro-ecosystem vulnerability to climate change events and provide adaptive capacity and resilience in the face of these emerging threats.

This dissertation describes the design, implementation and evaluation of a gender-inclusive information system linking rural women in Agni Hiya, Morocco and water project managers from the Association Dar Si-Hmad. This research was motivated by an interest in exploring the linkages between information and communication technologies (ICT), climate change, natural resource management and women's participation in community development in the drought-ridden Aït Baamrane region of southwest Morocco. The research investigates the potential for mobile phones to help address communication constraints that rural Berber women face, including culture, religion, and lack of digital literacy. These issues are relevant to the study and design of a gender-inclusive information system (the "Fog Phone") intended to help manage a fogwater distribution system that will deliver water from the Anti-Atlas Mountains to Berber villages.

The research investigates two similar groups of low-literate, marginalized rural Berber women from the same geographic community who have mobile phones. Technology-focused ethnographic research methods were used to first investigate the social, cultural and technical factors involved in mobile phone use by women employed in an Argan oil Cooperative. Findings from the Argan oil Cooperative study were then applied and expanded in a study of Berber women involved in the operation of the fogwater system. By virtue of their responsibilities as principal water gatherers and water users in the community, Berber women are key stakeholders in the fogwater system. Their continued involvement in water management was extended to the participatory design and development of the prototype Fog Phone.

Cultural conditions restricting communication between unrelated men and women led to an information system design that supported cultural, social, economic and technical constraints. The Fog Phone enabled women to report on the water system using a series of symbols that communicate water system status without violating cultural norms. In addition to an exploration of the relationship between gender and technology, this research explores related themes of climate change and environmental vulnerability as they pertain to women's lives and livelihoods, as well as the ability of rural Berber women to manage the environmental assets on which their livelihoods depend.

The contributions of this research include a prototype information system for the fogwater project; a better understanding of the mobile phone utility gap and its impact on the use of ICT by marginalized women in polyglot and oral-language dependent communities; and advances in the emerging practice of ICTs, Climate Change and Development (ICCD) by providing a case study of the linkages between mobile phones, water resources that are affected by climate change and women in rural communities involved in an environmentally sustainable development project in the Middle East and North Africa—a region that is largely missing from ICCD and overall ICT for Development research.

This Thesis is devoted to the construction of global climate networks (CNs) built from time series -surface air temperature anomalies (SAT)- using nonlinear analysis. Several information theory measures have been used including mutual information (MI) and conditional mutual information (CMI). The ultimate goal of the study is to improve the present understanding of climatic variability by means of networks, focusing on the different spatial and time-scales of climate phenomena. An introduction to the main components of this interdisciplinary work are offered in the first three chapters. Climate variability and patterns are introduced Chapter 1, network theory in Chapter 2, and nonlinear time series analysis -especially information theoretic methodology- in Chapter 3. In Chapter 4, the statistical similarity of SAT anomalies in different regions of the world is assessed using MI. These climate networks are constructed from time series of monthly averaged SAT anomalies, and from their symbolic ordinal representation, which allows an analysis of these interdependencies on different time scales. This analysis allows identifying topological changes in the networks when using ordinal patterns (OPs) of different time intervals. Intra-seasonal (of a few months), inter-seasonal (covering a year) and inter-annual (several years) timescales are considered. The nature of the interdependencies is then explored in Chapter 5 by using SAT data from an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) runs, all of them forced by the same historical sea surface temperature (SST). It is possible to separate atmospheric variability into a forced component, and another one intrinsic to the atmosphere. In this way, it is possible to obtain climate networks for both types of variability and characterize them. Furthermore, an analysis using OP allows to construct CNs for several time scales, and evaluate the connectivity of each different network. This selecting both time scale and variability type allows to obtain a further insight into the study of SAT anomalies. The connectivity of the constructed CNs allows to assess the influence of two main climate phenomena: ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In Chapter 6, a natural extension of the network construction methodology is implemented in order to infer the direction of the links. A directionality index (DI) is used. DI can be defined as the difference of the CMI between two time series x(t) and y(t), calculated in two ways: i) considering the information about x(t) contained in t time units in the past of y(t), and ii) considering the information about y(t) contained in t time units in the past of x(t). DI is used to quantify the direction of information flow among the series, indicating the direction of the links of the network. Two SAT datasets -one monthly-averaged and another daily-averaged- are used. The links of the obtained networks are interpreted in terms of known atmospheric tropical and extra-tropical variability phenomena. Specific and relevant geographical regions are selected, the net direction of propagation of the atmospheric patterns is analyzed, and the direction of the inferred links is tested using surrogate data. These patterns are also found to be acting on various time scales, such as synoptic atmospheric waves in the extra-tropics or longer time scale events in the tropics. The final Chapter 7 presents the main conclusions, and a discussion of future work.
El objetivo de esta tesis es la creación de redes climáticas (CN por las siglas en inglés) a partir de un conjunto global de series temporales de temperatura del aire superficial (SAT), utilizando técnicas de análisis no lineal de series temporales. Varias metodologías son aplicadas al estudio de la variabilidad climática, incluyendo la Información mutua (MI) y la información mutual condicional (CMI). El objetivo principal de esta tesis es estudiar la variabilidad climática a través del análisis de redes haciendo énfasis en los diferentes patrones espaciales y temporales del sistema climático. Una introducción a los componentes principales de este trabajo interdisciplinario se presenta en los primeros tres capítulos. La variabilidad climática y los patrones atmosféricos se introducen en el Capítulo 1, la teoría de redes en el Capítulo 2, y el análisis no lineal de series temporales, especialmente metodos en teorá de la información, en el Capítulo 3. En el Capítulo 4, la similitud estadística de las anomalías de SAT en diferentes regiones del mundo es evaluada utilizando MI. Estas redes climáticas globales son construidas a partir de series temporales de SAT promediadas a escalas de tiempo mensuales, y a partir de su representación simbólica, permitiendo un análisis de estas interdependencias en varias escalas temporales. Se identifican cambios topológicos entre las redes, como resultado de variaciones en el intervalo de construcción de losOP. Escalas intra-estacionales (unos meses), inter-estacionales (cubriendo un año) e inter-anuales (varios años), son consideradas. Se encuentra que un incremento en el espaciado de los patrones ordinales (por lo tanto, en la escala de tiempo del análisis ordinal), resulta en redes climáticas con un incremento en la conectividad en el Pacífico ecuatorial. Al contrario, el número de conexiones significativas decrece al realizar el análisis ordinal en una escala de tiempo más corta (es decir, comparando meses consecutivos). Este efecto es interpretado como una consecuencia del efecto de El Niño-Oscilación Sud (ENSO) actuando en escalas de tiempo más largas y de una mayor estocasticidad en las series temporales en escalas de tiempo más cortas. La naturaleza de las interdependencias es explorada en el Capítulo 5, utilizando datos de SAT, resultantes de un conjunto de salidas de un modelo atmosférico de circulación global (AGCM), todas forzadas por la misma temperatura de la superficie del mar (SST). Es posible separar la variabilidad atmosférica en una componente forzada y otra intrínseca a la atmósfera. De esta forma, se obtienen redes climáticas para ambos tipos de variabilidad, lo que posibilita caracterizarlas. Un análisis utilizando OP permite crear CNs para diferentes escalas temporales, y encontrar la escala de OP para la cual las diferentes redes presentan mayor conectividad. Este doble proceso de selección permitie estudiar la variabilidad de las anomalías de SAT desde un nuevo punto de vista. La conectividad de las redes climáticas así construídas permite evaluar la influencia de dos fenómenos climáticos: ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO). Para esto, se pueden comparar las redes originales, con redes provenientes de series temporales a las que se les quitaron linealmente estos fenómenos. Un resultado clave de este análisis es que la conectividad de la red de variabilidad forzada es muy afectada por ENSO: eliminando el índice NINO3.4 (que caracteriza ENSO), se provoca una pérdida general de la conectividad en la red. El hecho de que incluso conexiones entre áreas muy alejadas del océano Pacífico ecuatorial se hayan perdido al quitar el índice, sugiere que estas regiones no están directamente conectadas sino que ambas son influenciadas por la zona dominada por ENSO, especialmente en escalas de tiempo interanuales. Por otro lado, en la red de variabilidad interna, independiente del forzado de las SST, las conexiones delMar del Labrador con el resto del mundo resultan significantemente afectadas por NAO, con un máximo en escalas intra-anuales. Aunque las conexiones no locales más fuertes resultan las forzadas por el océano, se muestra la presencia de teleconexiones asociadas con la variabilidad interna. En el Capítulo 6, una extensión natural de la metodología de construcción de redes es implementada, permitiendo inferir la dirección de las conexiones. Un índice de direccionalidad (DI), puede ser definido como la diferencia entre la CMI entre dos series temporales x(t ) e y(t ) calculada de dos formas: i) considerando la información de x(t ) contenida en τ unidades de tiempo en el pasado de y(t ) y ii) considerando la información de y(t ) contenida en τ unidades de tiempo en el pasado de x(t ). Este índice DI, se utiliza para cuantificar la dirección del flujo de información entre las series, lo que equivale a la dirección de la conexión entre los respectivos nodos de la red. Dos conjuntos de series temporales, uno promediado mensualmente y el otro promediado diariamente, son usados. Las conexiones de las redes resultantes son interpretadas en términos de fenómenos de variabilidad tropical y extratropical conocidos. Regiones específicas y relevantes son seleccionadas, la dirección neta de propagación de los patrones atmosféricos es analizada y contrastada con un test de inferencia estadística. Se encuentra que diferentes patrones de variabilidad, actúan en varias escalas de tiempo, tales como ondas sinópticas atmosféricas en los extra-trópicos o escalas de tiempo mayores en los trópicos. La dependencia de valores de DI con τ es investigada. Para la escala sinóptica (τ Ç 10 días), DI presenta una dependencia con τ, con un mínimo en los trópicos y máximos (en forma de trenes de ondas) en los extra-trópicos. Para valores mayores de τ, los links resultan ser relativamente robustos a la elección del parámetro, mostrando una conectividad alta en los trópicos y baja en los extra trópicos. El análisis demuestra la capacidad de DI de inferir la dirección neta de las interacciones climáticas, y de mejorar la compresión actual de fenómenos climáticos y de la predictabilidad climática. La red resultante está en total acuerdo con los conocimientos actuales de fenómenos climáticos, validando esta metodología para inferir, directamente de los datos, la dirección neta de las interacciones climáticas. Finalmente, el Capítulo 7, presenta las conclusiones, y una discusión de trabajo futuro.

Global climate change will bring devastating consequences and potentially irreversible damage to natural (e.g., environmental, mass species extinction) and human systems (e.g., global security, mass population relocations, economical security). Whilst a widespread public perception is that climate change is the current greatest threat to human life, individual-level mitigation attempts remain low. This thesis applies a terror management theoretical framework to understand and predict individual responses to climate change information. Research described in the thesis investigates whether exposure to climate change information elicits unconscious concerns about death, which in turn, is a psychological factor explaining differences in climate change attitudes and perceptions of climate change threat. To my knowledge only two empirical studies have used a terror management theoretical framework to frame research questions concerning responses to climate change. However, both studies failed to test the mechanism by which terror management responses are thought to be produced (i.e., death-related thoughts). The current research further examined whether exposure to climate change information would predict two main terror management responses: increased worldview defence, and self-esteem striving reactions. Depending on one’s worldview affiliation, terror management responses ay motivate beneficial (e.g., increase climate mitigation intent) or detrimental (e.g., increased climate denial, low perceptions of climate threat) responses to climate change. The thesis describes four empirical research investigations that were carried out. A Pilot Study examined whether exposing individuals to information about climate change impacts (e.g., increased natural disasters, biodiversity loss, mass species extinction) would increase accessibility of death-related thoughts, when compared with a no-threat control condition (information about the ineffectiveness of multi-tasking). Also examined was whether different levels of death-thought-accessibility and trait death anxiety were associated with climate change attitudinal responses – climate change acceptance or denial, and perception of climate change risk as low or high. The main findings were that, compared with the control condition, after climate change information exposure, higher death-word completions in a word-fragment task was related to: 1) climate change acceptance, and 2) higher perceptions of climate change risk, even amongst climate change deniers. Appraisal of climate change risk may depend on trait death anxiety. When trait death anxiety was low, participants exposed to climate change information reported higher climate change risk perceptions, compared with control participants. Thus, participants with low-trait death anxiety may be less likely to activate cognitive distancing strategies observed after mortality-related information. Overall, participants were more likely to demonstrate a liberal shift in attitudes when exposed to climate change information. The Pilot Study demonstrated that exposure to climate change threat-related information can lead to greater perceptions of climate change risk. Climate change information in the Pilot Study was not found to elicit greater deathrelated thoughts when compared with the control condition. Two methodological limitations of the Pilot Study were deemed likely to have impacted these null results. First was that the most commonly used measure of death-though accessibility in the terror management literature, the death-word-fragment task, had low sensitivity due to word completion rates being skewed on important word dimensions (e.g., word frequency, arousal, valence) that impact word recall. Further, internal reliabilities for the DTA measure in both conditions were unacceptably low (climate change salience, α=.21, control α=.50). As a result of the interference from word dimensions on word recall, it was not possible to determine whether the climate change information failed to elicit mortality salience (MS), (i.e., the conscious awareness of one’s own death), or whether null differences resulted from the low sensitivity of the death-word-fragment task. Second, was the lack of evidence for the mediational model (i.e., that when reminded about death, death-related thoughts mediate terror management responses), observed in the Pilot Study and the terror management literature. The subsequent study was aimed at investigating these limitations. The first main study (Study 1) was designed to investigate two methodological limitations observed in the Pilot: 1) Is the death-word-fragment task a sensitive measure of death anxiety? and 2) Is there evidence of the terror management mediation model (that deathrelated thoughts are the mechanism by which MS leads to worldview defence)? Study 1 used a common way of eliciting MS, which asks participants to reflect and write about their own death. In Study 1a the death-word-fragment task did not differentiate between MS and control conditions. Further, the study found supporting evidence, as did the Pilot Study, that word completion rates on the word-fragment task were associated with word dimensions (e.g., valence, arousal) that predicted word completion rates over and above the mortality manipulation. Study 1b further examined three alternate implicit measures of capturing death anxiety: lexical decision task (measuring construct accessibility), dot probe task (measuring attentional bias), and an ambiguous p ctures interpretation task (measuring interpretation bias). The picture task included Rorschach inkblots, followed by images that could be interpreted either in a death-related or non-death-related manner. These latter images had a picture of a skull superimposed on a neutral image. All measures successfully differentiated between MS and control conditions. None of the four measures mediated the terror management response – that is, via worldview defence. Only the Rorschach inkblots, which excluded the more explicit deathrelated images in the ambiguous picture task, revealed a moderation effect. Thus, the full ambiguous picture, lexical decision, and dot probe tasks did not show moderation effects for worldview defence. For the Rorschach inkblots only, participants exposed to a MS, compared to a control condition, who demonstrated greater worldview defence, were those demonstrating higher cognitive avoidance as observed by the low number of death-related interpretations on the inkblots. This may reflect participants’ attempts to suppress death-related thoughts after being reminded about death. The study did not determine whether this overall lack of mediating or moderating effects occurred because, in testing implicit death anxiety, subsequent responding may be impacted, negating differences between conditions. Interference effects have been observed in TMT research when using measures of implicit death anxiety – for example, a word puzzle using death-related words and the death-word-fragment task. Consistent with this idea, TM outcomes (e.g., climate change author preferences) were shown to differ depending on the measure administered, possibly due to the measure itself eliciting differential intensities (and awareness) of death-related thoughts. None of the four measures mediated the terror management response – that is, via worldview defence. Only the Rorschach inkblots, which excluded the more explicit deathrelated images in the ambiguous picture task, revealed a moderation effect. Thus, the full ambiguous picture, lexical decision, and dot probe tasks did not show moderation effects for worldview defence. For the Rorschach inkblots only, participants exposed to a MS, compared to a control condition, who demonstrated greater worldview defence, were those demonstrating higher cognitive avoidance as observed by the low number of death-related interpretations on the inkblots. This may reflect participants’ attempts to suppress death-related thoughts after being reminded about death. The study did not determine whether this overall lack of mediating or moderating effects occurred because, in testing implicit death anxiety, subsequent responding may be impacted, negating differences between conditions. Interference effects have been observed in TMT research when using measures of implicit death anxiety – for example, a word puzzle using death-related words and the death-word-fragment task. Consistent with this idea, TM outcomes (e.g., climate change author preferences) were shown to differ depending on the measure administered, possibly due to the measure itself eliciting differential intensities (and awareness) of death-related thoughts. Study 2 design was informed by methodological concerns addressed in the Pilot Study and Study 1: 1) compared to the death-word-fragment task, the dot probe task is a more sensitive measure of unconscious concerns about death, and, 2) measuring the proposed intervening process (i.e., death-related thoughts), may impact subsequent responding. For this reason, it was first examined whether climate change information elicited attentional bias towards deathrelated stimuli (manipulation check), followed by whether climate change information elicited terror management responses, such as increased material strivings and greediness tendencies in a resource dilemma task, both of which have been found under MS conditions. Increased material strivings (e.g., desire for expensive houses, cars) is posited as a way of managing terror because material possessions can signify a successful existence. This is likely to be an important terror management outcome to study as the continual production and consumption of consumer purchases is antithetical to curbing greenhouse gas emitting behaviour. Study 2 differentiated between two climate change information frames as not all climate change communications may elicit mortality concerns, or at least, not to the same extent. One emphasised the losses of unmitigated climate change (loss-frame), and the other emphasised the gains of mitigated climate change (gain-frame). It was posited that the loss-frame would be more likely to elicit concerns about death and subsequent terror management responses. Lossframed climate change information was posited to be more likely than a gain-frame to elicit MS because of the emphasis on threatening and mortality-related consequences of climate change. Also included was a third no climate change threat (control) information condition. Results revealed that climate change loss-framed information resulted in greater death avoidance (manipulation check) and increased desire for future wealth, when compared with both information frames. Gain-frame climate change communication revealed no differences in death-thought accessibility or desire for future wealth when compared with the control information. Although there was evidence of material desires post threatening climate change information, there was no framing differences on greediness tendencies on a resource dilemma task. It may be that whilst climate change threat bolsters the desire to acquire status seeking symbols, it may not induce desires of wanting more (greed) when “more” does not fulfil motives of wealth and status display. Exploratory analyses in Study 2 revealed two unexpected findings. It was observed that participants exposed to the loss-frame (compared with other frames) and who responded with the highest greed and fear responses in the resource dilemma task, were also those who showed the highest climate change concern and mitigation intent, respectively. Although preliminary, these findings point towards the exposure to loss-framed climate change information motivating individuals to reduce feelings of psychological threat in ways that are both threat-focused (e.g., higher climate change concern), and symbolic (e.g., pursuit of status showing symbols, greed). Interestingly, there were no differences between information frame exposure and climate Exploratory analyses in Study 2 revealed two unexpected findings. It was observed that participants exposed to the loss-frame (compared with other frames) and who responded with the highest greed and fear responses in the resource dilemma task, were also those who showed the highest climate change concern and mitigation intent, respectively. Although preliminary, these findings point towards the exposure to loss-framed climate change information motivating individuals to reduce feelings of psychological threat in ways that are both threat-focused (e.g., higher climate change concern), and symbolic (e.g., pursuit of status showing symbols, greed). Interestingly, there were no differences between information frame exposure and climate change attitudes and mitigation intent. Overall, Study 2 findings suggested that societal risk announcements, such as those referring to climate change, may elicit mortality concerns and impact various life domains (e.g., managing impressions of success) as a result of managing psychological threat. One reason that climate change information is posited to elicit terror management responses is because evidence of climate change and its impacts serve to remind individuals that death, decay, and destruction are inevitable, and that we have little control over our own death. By emphasising its worst consequences, loss-framed climate change information may invite feelings of climate change helplessness – the belief that climate change impacts are beyond personal control as the threat is so enormous. It was reasoned that manipulating climate change response efficacy in ways that individuals are led to believe that their individual actions (e.g., turning up the thermostat in summer) will have an impact on climate change, may increase feelings of control over the outcomes of the perceived threat and thereby reduce feelings of helplessness and concerns about death. Communicating high climate change response efficacy (vs. low climate change response efficacy) may therefore prevent the activation of terror management reduction responses – such as worldview defence and material strivings. In conjunction with TMT, the extended parallel processing model (EPPM) was adopted to understand Study 3 findings. The EPPM provides an explanation to why, after exposure to fear appeals, threat-reduction vs. threat-avoidance responses are observed. It is posited that fear appeals, combined with a high response-efficacy message, elicits threat control responses (e.g., mitigation) whereas fear appeals, combined with a low response-efficacy message, elicit fear control responses (e.g., minimising risks, avoidance, denial). Study 3 examined high and low threat by manipulating the outcome frame (loss as high threat vs. gain as low threat) followed by a response efficacy (high vs. low) message. The same loss- and gain-frame information from Study 2 was used for this study. Outcomes measured post-information (Time 1; T1) were mitigation intent worldview defence and material strivings. Also examined was whether differences in reported behavioural engagement remained at either 3 to 5 days (Time 2; T2), or 5 to 7 days post information (Time 3; T3). It was posited that high-response efficacy would buffer concerns about death for individuals exposed to the loss-framed climate change information, thereby negating possible terror management responses. Results at T1 showed that high-response efficacy frames (vs. low-response efficacy frames) had moderate to large increases in mitigation intent. However, outcome frames (loss vs. gain) made no difference to mitigation intent. At T2 and T3, there were no differences between information frame and reported behavioural engagement, suggesting that either intentions did not translate into behaviour, or that increased mitigation intent does not endure. Terror management responses, worldview defence, and material strivings, were not observed in this study. It was posited that all climate change communication frames may have elicited similar levels of existential threat. Without a control condition it was not possible to detect between condition differences in terror management strategies. This thesis offers novel original and innovative contributions to the climate change risk communication and terror management literature. This work empirically investigated responses towards exposure to climate change information using a terror management theoretical and methodological framework. Study findings provided evidence that a terror management framework is useful in understanding and predicting societal responses to climate change. Responses to climate change has been under-researched within the terror management literature. This study was the first to examine whether climate change information elicited concerns about death. Second, the research described in this thesis aimed to report a number of responses to climate change information as a result of death anxiety, such as climate change attitudes, perceptions of climate change risk, climate change mitigation intentions, and consumer behaviour. Measuring responses to climate change information in domains other than attitudes towards climate change is also largely absent from the climate change literature. As the risks of climate change increase and the need for widespread behavioural engagement accelerates, it is necessary to understand how best to communicate climate change information taking account of individual differences. Together, the studies demonstrate potential positive trajectories (e.g., greater perception of climate change threat), as well as possible backfire consequences (e.g., increased wealth enhancement) that exposure to climate change threat-related information can have in motivating sustainable attitudes. Results from the studies described in the thesis may be useful for environmental advocates, risk communication researchers, media, and policymakers seeking to communicate the need for effective and urgent climate action. For instance, although more negatively focused climate change information may elicit threat-dismissal/minimisation/denial as a death-attenuating response, communicating high individual climate change response-efficacy can elicit increased behavioural intentions to take climate mitigating actions. Furthermore, it may be important that climate change appeals that elicit psychological threat are directly followed by opportunities that attenuate the perceived threat in ways that help rather than hinder environmental sustainability efforts. Future research could take into account a terror management perspective when seeking to further understand climate change attitudes and measure the function of death anxiety. More research is needed to fully understand the role that death anxiety plays. Additionally, terror management research could investigate boundary conditions to better predict when exposure to climate change information will elicit terror management responses. It will be valuable to identify which framing and individual factors increase the likelihood of climate change communication eliciting positive terror management responses – attitudes and intentions that Future research could take into account a terror management perspective when seeking to further understand climate change attitudes and measure the function of death anxiety. More research is needed to fully understand the role that death anxiety plays. Additionally, terror management research could investigate boundary conditions to better predict when exposure to climate change information will elicit terror management responses. It will be valuable to identify which framing and individual factors increase the likelihood of climate change communication eliciting positive terror management responses – attitudes and intentions that
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Applied Psychology
Griffith Health
Full Text

In addition to the tragedy they cause, major natural hazard and disaster events place a large cost on the governments and aid organizations who help people prepare for and recover from them. Such organizations are in constant need of strategies for distributing aid efficiently and comprehensively. The emergence of social media in everyday life has provided a platform for such organizations to coordinate relief efforts and communicate with people affected by disasters. It also has allowed affected individuals to communicate with one another on a large scale. The present thesis examines the dynamics of Twitter during extreme climate events and their aftermath in order to shed light on potential strategies for aid providers. We begin by looking at the five most expensive natural disasters in the United States between 2011 and 2016. We isolate Twitter users for each disaster who are likely tweeting about food security or other basic needs during the event and its aftermath. We examine the follower count distributions of these users for each event. We then narrow focus to Hurricane Sandy, and look at the relationship between follower counts and relative increase in tweeting rate during the event. We find that users with fewer than 100 followers were more likely to increase their rate of tweet publication than influentials with many followers. We also use a synthetic model of Twitter's communication network to mimic the way Twitter stores and samples tweet data. We quantify the sensitivity of three measures of network centrality to these mechanisms. This provides insight relevant to those who build network representations of Twitter communication using the data Twitter provides. We see differences in the sensitivity of the centrality measures studied, differences in sensitivity to the different mechanisms, and a dependence between measure and mechanism. Finally, we construct a network representation of Puerto Rican Twitter users surrounding Hurricane Mar\'ia and its aftermath. We examine the evolution of this network over time, and communities present within the aggregate network. Using information theoretic tools, we discern differences in the body of tweets between different communities in the network and different periods of time surrounding the hurricane's landfall. We observe many differences between communities, with more focus on Puerto Rico in the community containing most local government figures, whereas major celebrities tended to talk about more general Latin American issues. We also hand-categorize Twitter users in the network as news outlets, politicians, citizens, weather stations, meteorologists, or journalists, finding that the distribution of user type has a temporal dependence.

Cette thèse analyse in situ ce que SNCF fait de la connaissance disponible sur les impacts du changement climatique et ce que cette connaissance lui fait. Elle cherche à contribuer à la compréhension de la manière dont les grandes organisations se transforment face au changement global décrit et annoncé. L’enquête, ancrée dans une méthodologie inductive, s’attache dans un premier temps à décrire en détails l’adaptation telle qu’elle se fait aujourd’hui chez SNCF, principalement de manière réactive et incrémentale, au niveau du siège et au niveau régional (en Occitanie). Elle explore ensuite les conséquences possibles des changements les plus disruptifs anticipés par les études scientifiques et le rapport des différents acteurs à d’éventuelles transformations plus profondes de leurs visions et de leurs pratiques. Le dispositif mis en place montre que l’accroissement de la variabilité et des extrêmes climatiques est effectivement à même d’interroger les politiques internes et les choix stratégiques de l’entreprise. Au-delà des enjeux techniques, l’adaptation pose des questions de gouvernance qui débordent largement SNCF. Face à ces problématiques, une diversité de postures d’adaptation et de configurations des jeux d’acteurs est possible. Ce résultat amène à préciser les questions économiques pertinentes pour mieux répondre à ce défi. Cette thèse défend que c’est en tant que science de la gouvernance que l’économie, aux côtés d’autres heuristiques, a un rôle clé pour déployer les implications du changement climatique, explorer les pistes et ouvrir des espaces où mettre en débat les choix d’adaptation sur le long terme
This thesis describes and analyzes in situ how SNCF, the French national railway company, deals with the scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change. It intends to improve our understanding of how large organizations adapt to multifaceted changes and address wicked environmental problems. Based on an inductive inquiry, the research describes how adaptation happens for now at SNCF, mostly on a reactive and incremental mode, first at the corporate level then in one specific region (Occitanie). In a second step, it explores possible consequences of the most disruptive changes announced by science and how various actors consider more transformative adaptations of their world-views and practices. The device set up showed that increases in climate variability and evolutions of extreme events might actually question current policies and strategical choices. Beyond technical stakes, adaptation raises important governance challenges. Different sub-entities of SNCF but also local authorities, traffic authorities or other mobility providers can make contrasted adaptation choices. Following these observations, this research identifies salient research questions to improve adaptation decisions. It defends that, along with other heuristics, economics have a major role to play to unfold critical consequences of climate change, explore adaptation options and display controversies regarding long-term adaptation

Autonomous Vehicle are coming. But mass adoption is at least ten years away according to consensus compiled from interviews conducted with industry thought lenders. Questions remain as to what technology those vehicles will contain as there is no universal platform for autonomous vehicle technology, since manufacturers, hardware and software companies are developing their own proprietary products. A/V technology is expected to improve productivity, and provide a plethora of societal benefits, but while we await the closure of the time gap the US will lose almost 40,000 citizens each year with traffic fatalities.

Connected vehicle technology, which is currently completing pilot studies, has been shown to reduce automobile accidents. This technology is not as complex as autonomous vehicle technology and is available now. Semi-autonomous vehicles which is Level 1 through Level 3 on the Society of Automobile Executives (SAE) scale is available on American automobiles today and has proven to be very popular amongst consumers. Technology convergence of semi-autonomous vehicle and connected vehicles can bridge the time gap until mass adoption of autonomous vehicle and contribute to reducing annual traffic fatalities. Combining these technologies will give drivers additional safety features thus providing them with the opportunity of making better decisions.

Droughts induced by climate change will most likely push dryland ecosystems beyond their biophysical thresholds and lead to long-term decline in agricultural productivity. Subsistence farming in developing countries where agricultural productivity is low will become less viable for many families already ravaged by food insecurity and poverty. This dissertation examines three ways of reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate variability and building resilience in the farming communities residing in semiarid lands. These include the use of adaptive seed technology, migration as a livelihood diversification and adaptive strategy, and the use of climate information in farm decision-making. The second chapter evaluates the impact of improved adaptive seed technology on market participation and food security, using data from a representative sample of 1344 households selected across six agroecological zones in Kenya. The study employed two estimation procedures for impact evaluation: a control function regression using OLS and IV regression estimated by Heckman bivariate sample selection model and 2SLS regression. The study used percentile shares approach to describe distributional inequalities in improved seed adoption across households. Kenya has a well-developed seed system, through which adaptive maize seed has been introduced for various agro-ecological zones. Despite its success with improved maize breeding programs, Kenya is still grappling with food insecurity. The marketed share of household's maize produce, among adopters, was on average 12 percentage points higher than for the control group. This increased with adoption intensity, albeit at a decreasing rate. The top 20% of households accounted for 63% of the quantity and 65% of the area planted with improved maize. The bottom 40% only accounted for 6% of the quantity purchased and 5% of the area planted with improved maize. Adopting households were less vulnerable to food insecurity and stored maize for longer than non-adopters. Larger families participated less in the market and were more food insecure. Wealth and education are other key determinants of food security and market participation. The results of the study indicate a need for a strategic policy on food security in Kenya that considers the concentrated nature of the maize farming sector, to address the problem of food insecurity. Such a policy could aim at food self-sufficiency for small farms and promote commercial production by large-scale producers for national strategic reserves. There is also a need for post-harvest policies that promote safe on-farm grain storage for small and medium scale producers. The third chapter focuses on migration, because of the growing interest among scholars in understanding the relationship between migration and adaptation to climate change. Past studies have looked at climate change as a trigger for migration, but the focus has now shifted to looking at migration as an enabler of climate-change adaptation and a livelihood diversification strategy. However, those most vulnerable to climate variability are the poor who are less able to afford mobility and entry costs. This study adds to the literature by evaluating, in chapter 3, the impact of migration on household consumption expenditure, relative food expenditure share, dietary diversity, spending on agricultural inputs and adaptive capacity. The study used survey data collected from a representative sample of 653 households across three arid regions of Northern Namibia. The study employed a novel identification strategy in migration studies by combining the standard exogenous instruments and Lewbel's constructed instruments using heteroscedastic errors. The study found two-thirds of the sampled households to be migrant-sending households. Poverty and the lack of economic opportunities in the rural villages were the main push factors driving migration to towns and cities. Although tertiary education and technical training of the migrants are key determinants of remittances received by migrant-sending households, over three quarters of the migrants were unskilled and very few having tertiary level training. Migrant-sending households had lower consumption spending and higher food budget share, suggesting relative deprivation. Although consumption spending increased with number of migrants, quality of human capital had greater impact on well-being. Migration had a positive impact on household's adaptive capacity but an inverse relationship between number of migrants and adaptation suggests failure of local adaptive strategies. The study finds households with migrants to have a significantly higher spending on agricultural inputs than those without migrants, with tractor-hire services for land preparation being a major component. The effect of family labour loss is somehow, through remittances, countervailed and compensated by mechanization. In conclusion, migration can potentially play a bigger role as an adaptive and risk-mitigation strategy in the face of climate variability, but poverty, lack of post-school skills training, and low transition to tertiary-level training are key barriers. Developing markets for credit, inputs and farm output, and preparing migrants for participation in labour markets and self-employment through training can further enhance the impact of migration and build resilience to climate shocks. Due to selfreinforcing poverty traps in poor households, the study recommends targeted public programs that support higher education and technical training. Lastly, chapter 4 examined the role of climate information and early warning in decision-making among farming communities in rural Namibia. Improved climate forecasting has been heralded as an important risk management and mitigation tool in climate-sensitive economic sectors such as agriculture. However, Africa has not reaped the benefits of improved climate forecasting and empirical studies about its impact are scanty. Chapter 4 first discusses access to and utilization of climate information in farm decisionmaking, and then evaluates its impact on dietary diversity, food spending and adaptive capacity of the households using propensity score matching, with a sensitivity analysis for hidden bias. Only half of the farmers had access to climate information and most of them relied primarily on traditional knowledge to make decisions on crop and livestock production. Many of the households without access to climate information also had little knowledge of alternative adaptive strategies. The likelihood of receiving climate information increased with the number of migrants per household, household size, social networks, trust and participation in community decision-making processes, but declined with age. Although male heads were more likely to receive climate information, females headed most of the households. The main sources of information for farmers were radios and peer learning. Respondents expressed a low level of trust in information from available channels and most of them rated the information received as insufficient for decision-making. Although 95% of households owned mobile phones, only 5% received information through them, indicating untapped opportunity of using an ICT platform to share information with farmers. Households with climate information had more diversified diets and significantly higher food spending. These households also engaged in more adaptive strategies, but the scale of adoption was small. Community empowerment through enhanced access to extension services, information on alternative adaptive choices, and the development of markets, rural communication and transport infrastructure are prerequisites to access to and effective utilization of improved climate forecast information for successful adaptation.

High-wind events (HWE) occur across every region of the United States (U.S.) and result in hundreds of fatalities, as well as thousands of dollars in damages annually. HWEs are classified as sustained high-winds or high-wind gusts and can be generated from convective or non-convective weather systems. This study investigates high-wind observations across the eastern U.S. during a 43-year climatological period (1973-2015) for spatial and temporal variations in wind speed and direction. Hourly surface wind observations were gathered from the National Centers for Environmental Information Data Center Integrated Surface Database (NCEI-ISD). This dataset includes qualitycontrolled wind observations from 391 first-order weather stations in the eastern U.S. Findings show that HWEs were most concentrated in the High Plains and fewer convective HWEs occurred during the study period compared to non-convective. Convective and non-convective sustained HWE frequency and mean wind-speeds declined during the study period while gust HWE frequencies and speeds increased. The purpose of this study is to develop an extensive climatological understanding of convective and non-convective high-wind events to mitigate associated damages and fatalities caused by these events.

This thesis examines use of ICT in helping to reduce energy use in cities, thereby contributing to sustainable development and achievement of cities’ climate targets. It explores how targets can be developed in a consistent and transparent way, how to identify the main ICT ‘hotspots’ as regards reducing citizens’ energy use and how they can be included in city planning. Implementation of mobility management principles and climate targets was tested in two existing solutions, a traveller information system and a flexible work hub solution. Four key methodological considerations when setting climate targets for cities were identified. These concerned decisions on: target setting object, temporal scope, units and target range. A tool was developed for identifying promising ICT hotspots. The tool can also be used to monitor implementation of ICT solutions and the associated technological and socio-technical difficulties. In a case study in Greater Stockholm, the ICT hotspots identified were intelligent building heating systems, intelligent transport system and potential transformation of the physical environment (buildings and roads) enabled by ICT solutions. Two aspects of planning identified as crucial for successful implementation of energy saving ICT solutions were studied in detail: i) Timing of ICT-related decisions in the planning process; and ii) the actor networks needed to implement the ICT solutions and their management. There are few decision points in the current planning process, so the municipality as property owner and its decision-making process are of crucial importance. Two collaborative approaches to govern, network governance and coordination through meta-governance as a way of indirect steering, are proposed. An investigation of nine traveller information systems and a case study in Stockholm of flexible work hub solutions revealed that mobility management approaches to reduce transport demand and encourage environmentally friendly transport modes are poorly reflected in the implementation. To support mobility management approaches, traveller information systems should primarily offer, or be integrated with, other solutions that support the choices “no travel” and “shorter journey”. Flexible work hubs should be located in local nodes closer to people’s homes. The main conclusions from this work were that ICT solutions can be modified to support achievement of cities’ climate targets and that climate targets must be defined using transparent methodology that clarifies the target content, ensuring that the most promising energy saving ICT solutions are implemented.
Denna avhandling undersöker hur informations- och kommunikationsteknologi (IKT) kan användas till att bidra till minskning av energianvändning i städer och därmed bidra till att nå städers klimatmål. Den undersöker hur städers klimatmål kan utvecklas på ett konsekvent och transparent sätt, hur de mest lovande IKT-lösningarna kan identifieras när det gäller att minska invånarnas energianvändning och hur de kan ingå i stadsplanering. Genomförande av principer för mobility management samt samhälleliga mål testas i två befintliga lösningar, - ett resenärsinformationssystem och en flexibel arbetsplatslösning. Fyra centrala metodologiska överväganden för att bestämma städers klimatmål identifieras. Dessa gäller: föremålet för målformuleringen, den tidsmässiga omfattningen, mätenheten och målets räckvidd. Ett verktyg togs fram för att identifiera de IKT- lösningarna som är mest lovande vad gäller att minska stadsbornas energianvändning. Verktyget kan också användas för att observera de identifierade IKT-lösningarnas utnyttjandegrad samt de tekniska och sociotekniska svårigheter som är förenade med införande. I en fallstudie i Storstockholmsområdet identifierades de IKT-lösningar som var mest lovande: intelligenta värmesystem för byggnader, intelligenta transportsystem samt den potentiella förändringen av den fysiska miljön (byggnader och vägar) som görs möjliggörs av IKT-lösningar. Två aspekter av planering som identifierats som avgörande för ett framgångsrikt införande av energibesparande IKT-lösningar har studerats i detalj: i) Tidpunkten för IKT-relaterade beslut i planeringsprocessen; och ii) de aktörsnätverk som behövs för att införa och förvalta IKT-lösningarna. Det finns få beslutspunkter i den aktuella planeringen vilket gör att beslutsprocessen och kommunens roll som fastighetsägare är av avgörande betydelse. Två strategier för samarbete föreslås, styrning genom samordning i nätverk och samordning via metastyrning (indirekt styrning). En undersökning av nio reseplanerare och en fallstudie i Stockholm av flexibla arbetsplatslösningar visade att mobility management metoder för att minska efterfrågan på transporter och uppmuntra miljövänliga transportsätt inte återspeglas tillräckligt i genomförandet. För att stödja mobility management-principer bör resenärsinformations-system främst erbjuda, eller integreras med andra lösningar som stödjer valen "ingen resa" och "kortare resa". Hubbar för flexibla arbetsplatser bör placeras i lokala noder närmare bostäder. De viktigaste slutsatserna i denna avhandling är att IKT-lösningar kan modifieras för att stödja städers klimatmål och att klimatmål måste definieras med hjälp av transparenta metoder för att säkerställa att de mest lovande IKT-lösningar för energiminskning införs.

QC 20141002

This research investigates the linkages that exist between climate change impacts, adaptation and information and communication technologies (ICTs) within developing country livelihoods. The analysis is based on an original conceptual framework that explores the notion of 'e-resilience' as a key property through which ICTs may strengthen the capacity of vulnerable systems to adapt and potentially transform in the face of increasing climate change impacts and uncertainty. By drawing key principles from the sustainable livelihoods framework, new institutionalism and Sen's capabilities approach, and based on a critical realist view of the world, the research provides a novel approach to the understanding of ICTs' role in contexts vulnerable to climate change. Based on the experience of Colombia's coffee producers, the analysis demonstrates that ICTs can contribute to the ability of vulnerable livelihoods to adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability through improved short-term informational efficiency and knowledge sharing, and long-term decision-making effectiveness, capacity building and behavioural change. The analysis explores the main factors that enable or constrain ICTs' contribution to the implementation of adaptive actions, arguing that the extent and impact of those contributions are best understood through the concept of e-resilience. As an increasingly relevant property of vulnerable systems, e-resilience integrates foundational (robustness, self-organisation and learning) and enabling attributes (redundancy, rapidity, scale, flexibility, diversity and equality) that may have been overlooked from a traditional 'asset-based' approach, while allowing a systemic (multi-scale/multi-temporal/multi-stressor) understanding of the context within which developing country stakeholders operate. The research findings reveal numerous linkages between ICTs' role and resilience building, suggesting that the e-resilience sub-properties strengthen the ability of vulnerable systems to enact adaptation actions, and better cope with the process of change and increasing uncertainty associated with (but not limited to) climate change. The analysis shows that, while ICT tools have not been explicitly integrated into national or sectoral climate change adaptation strategies, they are playing an increasing role in the adaptive capacity and resilience of developing country livelihoods. The study concludes by recognising the strengths and weaknesses of the e-resilience approach, providing recommendations to facilitate its use in development practice and suggesting key areas for future research.

This doctoral dissertation was inspired by the new possibilities offered by Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) for strengthening citizen agency to meet the widely recognized need for active public inclusion in decision-making on adaptation to climate change. To ensure the success of adaptation polices it is essential that policy-makers both involve public knowledge and experience and gain public acceptance for the measures they propose to cope with climate change. Traditional forms of public participation are often intensive, time-consuming and limited to small-scale participatory activities. However, recent years have seen a significant increase in the visibility of different citizens’ perspectives in the online world. The two guiding questions behind the research for this thesis were thus as follows: 1) What is the role of ICT in current participatory processes?; and 2) Can ICT ensure efficient and meaningful public participation in climate change adaptation? To answer these questions, this dissertation analyses the use of online participation – eParticipation – in reaching out to the public. The paper draws on knowledge from different disciplines, including information and communication studies as well as classic works of social and political scientists, to understand the relation between social capital and adaptive capacity in the online world. The dissertation develops a theoretical framework for supporting online public participation in climate change adaptation. It further presents findings from tests undertaken as to the suitability of various online tools and social marketing approaches for applying different parts of this framework. The framework was implemented in a case study and the results obtained proved that eParticipation is efficient in terms of the time and money needed for participation. The results indicated the decreasing significance of the digital divide as an obstacle for using online spaces for public participation. For while a pre-existing online network of users is a prerequisite for conducting successful eParticipation involving high numbers of participants and obtaining meaningful results, we can reasonably expect different engagement approaches to become feasible with further Internet proliferation. Finally, eParticipation is not presented as a panacea but rather as an approach that can be combined with well-established participatory practices. For example, interviews were used in this study to ensure the acceptability and meaningfulness of the obtained results. The paper recommends assigning an important role to scientists, who are encouraged to reach out to the general public and act as “brokers” of information between different groups that would not otherwise be in contact. From a research point of view, this dissertation contributes to a still-emerging research agenda aimed at identifying and understanding the options and limitations of using ICT for engaging citizens. From an action point of view, the results of this research signal how ICT can scale up public participation in climate change decision-making and thus add to a more equal and democratic climate change governance.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Smart environments are increasingly common. By utilizing sensor data from the indoor environment and applying methods like machine learning, they can autonomously control and increase productivity, comfort, and well-being of occupants. The aim of this thesis was to model indoor climate in conference rooms and use K-means clustering to determine quality levels. Together, they enable categorization of conference room quality level during meetings. Theoretically, by alerts to the user, this may enhance occupant productivity, comfort, and well-being. Moreover, the objective was to determine which features and which k would produce the highest quality clusters given chosen evaluation measures. To do this, a quasi-experiment was used. CO2, temperature, and humidity sensors were placed in four conference rooms and were sampled continuously. K-means clustering was then used to generate clusters with 10 days of sensor data. To evaluate which feature combination and which k created optimal clusters, we used Silhouette, Davis Bouldin, and the Elbow method. The resulting model, using three clusters to represent quality levels, enabled categorization of the quality of specific meetings. Additionally, all three methods indicated that a feature combination of CO2 and humidity, with k = 2 or k = 3, was suitable.

Thesis (Ph. D. in History, Anthropology, and Science, Technology and Society (HASTS))--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Science, Technology and Society, 2010.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 312-340).
This dissertation argues that alongside the dominant discourse occurring in and through media in the midst of immense transformation, social networks and affiliations provide a vital translation of science in varied vernaculars such that climate change is becoming invested with diverse meanings, ethics, and/or morality. Based on ethnographic research, this dissertation analyzes such processes of translation and articulation occurring among five different discursive communities actively enunciating the fact and meaning of climate change through their own vernaculars. The five groups are: 1) Arctic indigenous representatives that are part of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2) corporate social responsibility activists working with Ceres 3) American evangelical Christians active in the nascent movement known as Creation Care, 4) leading science journalists, and 5) scientists who often act as science-policy experts. This dissertation tracks the formation by which evidence comes to matter and have meaning for groups, and the ways in which this process transforms the definition of and questions posed by climate change. It posits that climate change constitutes an emergent form of life replete with multiple, competing instantiations that feed into, configure, and continually revise definitions of and models of/for climate change. Such articulations and attempts at defining climate change are full of friction as epistemologies, forms of life, advocacy, and expertise evolve and bump up against one another in a process of socialization, negotiation, and meaning-making. In this framework, climate change is a simultaneous intellectual, scientific, and moral challenge - it is both a problem of assessing what is happening, what might happen, and how to act in the world. The presentation and circulation of information provide only partial answers. Partnering facts with multiple codes for meaning, ethics, and morality delineate what the stakes and risks entail, articulating rationales to act. These diverse partnerships produce attendant translations, assemblages, modes of speech, and material forms of training and disciplining that enroll scientific findings and policy aspirations.
by Candis L. Callison.
Ph.D.in History, Anthropology, and Science, Technology and Society (HASTS

Some online games are prosperous and have attracted a large number of players, while others cannot sustain. Both technical and social factors likely affect a player’s satisfaction with an online game. However, there is a clear dearth of studies in which have investigated online games from a socio-technical perspective. This article seeks to address this gap through an empirical study on technical factors (manifesting as game attractiveness) and social factors (manifesting as gaming climate) influencing a player’s satisfaction in an online game. Specifically, game balance and technical quality are manifestations of game attractiveness, while pro-gaming norms, integrity and active participation reflect internal gaming climate. Using online questionnaires, field data were collected from two research sites relating to two online games respectively. The data were then analysed with PLS, revealing that game balance, technical quality, integrity and active participation are positively related to a player’s satisfaction in an online game. The findings suggest that both technical factors (game attractiveness) and social factors (gaming climate) impact a player’s satisfaction in an online game. This study contributes to the literature on online games, and also presents important implications for designers and operators of online games.

Climate information is valuable in understanding the ecology of systems affecting wildlife. This information is often unavailable at the landscape scale. This study evaluated the applicability of several climate factor estimates at the landscape-scale, and illustrated the usefulness of estimated climate factors in ecological investigations. Climate variables estimated for each month of the year were solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. Map layers for combined temperature and precipitation, and a moisture index were also created. Accuracy of the estimates for temperature and precipitation for each 300 m x 300 m pixel were quantitatively assessed. The methods used estimated mean monthly temperature within 1 degree C. Precipitation estimates were within 9 mm of actual recorded value. The estimates for monthly solar radiation were qualitatively assessed, and provided a reasonable relative index to actual solar radiation. Estimates of potential evapotranspiration were determined to be reasonably accurate. Landscape-scale estimated climate factors were used in 2 case studies. The first used logistic regression to examine the importance of climate factors to the observed distribution of 21 select forest cover-types in Virginia.The second compared the observed climate characteristics for the distributions of 3 species of terrestrial salamanders in Virginia. Winter temperature was the most important climate variable in determining forest cover-type distribution. Several differences in the climate characteristics of the 3 salamander distributions were observed and discussed. The conclusions of this study were that landscape-scale climate factors can be accurately estimated, and the estimates may be helpful in ecological investigations.
Master of Science

Sea levels have risen approximately 20 cm since the beginning of the 20th century and more than 3 cm in the past 20 years, suggesting that global sea level rise is accelerating. As sea levels continue to rise and storms become more intense, coastal property and populations become more susceptible to damage. Florida is especially vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge (HSS) and the onset of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) due to its extensive coastline and high population density along the coast. The main purpose of this research is to assess the potential economic impacts of ASLR and HSS for two of western Pasco County’s municipalities, Port Richey and New Port Richey. A Geographic Information System is used to determine the spatial extent at a high-resolution of coastal inundation, the economic loss based on property value and road expenditure due to this inundation, and its impact on critical infrastructure. The results from this study showed coastal flooding generated by 0.5m SLR amounted to 48.8% land loss and $217,108,692 of property loss. Monetary losses from inundated properties shifted dramatically from 1.0m to 1.5m SLR, from $295 million to $417 million, suggesting that the tipping point could only be a half-meter SLR. Based on the 2.0m SLR results, most of major highway US-19 was completely flooded, property tax losses amounted to approximately $7.1 million, and road expenditure was approximately $158 million. Data provided in this study can be useful for coastal management and planning in Port Richey and New Port Richey.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
O presente trabalho teve, como objetivo, estudar as características e os tipos de parâmetros existentes para análise do clima, fazer uma comparação entre os sistemas de monitoramento e acompanhamento climáticos em funcionamento hoje e ainda propor uma nova abordagem de construção de um software que possa seguir as prerrogativas de software livre e que esteja disponível na Internet, com baixo custo de implementação. Atendendo assim de maneira simples a todos que necessitem de informações destes parâmetros climáticos para os auxiliarem na tomada de decisão, nas mais diversas áreas da sociedade, estas informações estão dispostas na Internet on-line ou podem ser recebidas automaticamente por e-mail mediante prévio cadastramento.
The present work had as objective, to study the characteristics and types of existing parameters for analysis of the climate, and make a comparison between the systems of climatic monitoring and accompaniment in functioning today and to consider a new approaching of construction of a new software that can follow the prerogatives of free software and is available in the Internet with low cost of implementation. Thus taking serving in a simple way for all that need information of these climatic parameters to assist them in taking decision, in most diverse areas of the society, these information are made to use in the Internet on-line or can be received automatically by email by means of previous cadastre.

Recent advancements in processing power, storage capabilities, and availability of data, has led to improvements in many applications through the use of machine learning. Using machine learning in control systems was first suggested in the 1990s, but is more recently being implemented. In this thesis, an embedded climate system, which is a type of control system, will be looked at. The ways in which machine learning can be used to replicate portions of the climate system is looked at. Deep Belief Networks are the machine learning models of choice. Firstly, the functionality of a PID controller is replicated using a Deep Belief Network. Then, the functionality of a more complex control path is replicated. The performance of the Deep Belief Networks are evaluated at how they compare to the original control portions, and the performance in hardware. It is found that the Deep Belief Network can quite accurately replicate the behaviour of a PID controller, whilst the performance is worse for the more complex control path. It was seen that the use of delays in input features gave better results than without. A climate system with a Deep Belief Network was also loaded onto hardware. The minimum requirements of memory usage and CPU usage were met. However, the CPU usage was greatly affected, and if this was to be used in practice, work should be done to decrease it.
Många applikationer har förbättras genom användningen av maskininlärning. Maskininlärning för reglersystem föreslogs redan på 1990-talet och har nu börjat tillämpas, eftersom processorkraft, lagringsmöjligheter och tillgänglighet till rådata ökat. I detta examensarbete användes ett inbäddat klimatsystem, som är en typ av reglersystem. Maskininlärningsmodellen Deep Belief Network användes för att undersöka hur delar av klimatsystemet skulle kunna återskapas. Först återskapades funktionaliteten hos en PID-regulator och sedan funktionaliteten av en mer komplex del av reglersystemet Prestandan hos nätverken utvärderades i jämförelse med prestandan i de ursprungliga kontrolldelarna och hårdvaran. Det visade sig att Deep Belief Network utmärkt kunde replikera PID-regulatorns beteende, medan prestandan var lägre för den komplexa delen av reglersystemet. Användningen av fördröjningar i indata till nätverken gav bättre resultat än utan. Ett klimatsystem med ett Deep Belief Network laddades också över på hårdvaran. Minimikrav för minnesanvändning och CPU- användning var uppfyllda, men CPU- användningen påverkades kraftigt. Detta gör, att om maskininlärning ska kunna användas i verkligheten, bör CPU-användningen minskas.

Consumers often must choose between mutually exclusive products or beliefs related to products, such as to believe or ignore social and environmental causes. Cognitive dissonance (CD) (Festinger, 1957) is a common psychological discomfort that must be resolved, when experienced between inconsistent beliefs, attitudes, or choices. Advertising and marketing promotion to influence consumer decision making often uses celebrity / expert endorsers (Hollensen & Schimmelpfennig, 2013) to improve brand effectiveness and increase sales, yet how endorsements affect consumer attitudes and CD has not been explored.

During an attempt to revise models of predicting consumer behavior to include CD measurement (e.g., theory of reasoned action in Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980; theory of planned behavior in Ajzen, 1991) it was noted that attempts to add scales to measure social norms improved model effectiveness. Moreover, attempts to measure CD (e.g., Cassel & Chow, 2002; Elliot & Devine, 1994; Hausknecht, Sweeney, Soutar, & Johnson, 1998; Sakai, 1999; Shultz & Lepper, 1996; and Sweeney, Hausknecht, & Soutar, 2000) did not measure the social context of CD as originally conceived by Festinger to explain illogical behaviors given observable facts such as cigarette smoking and cult activities, etc. After review of the CD phenomenon and its common origins in Lewin (1936, 1951), Osgood and Tannenbaum (1955), Heider (1946, 1958), and Festinger (1954, 1957), it was discovered that CD is a multivariate phenomenon and more complex than existing models of decision making or measurement instruments could accommodate.

This dissertation derived a CD instrument with semantic differential scales from congruity theory (Osgood & Tannenbaum, 1955) and balance theory (Heider, 1946, 1958) to measure multivariate CD during attitude change using endorsement by former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore, Jr. of an important social cause: global warming. With a repeated measures procedure, CD was induced using a social comparison referent (SCR) of Mr. Gore for a snowball sample of 567 respondents recruited from online political groups and social media websites. Information about global warming was presented within simulated news headlines to 16 randomly assigned groups of 567 respondents with alternating combinations of positively / negatively toned messages, high credibility / low credibility publications, and domestic-attributed research / foreign-attributed research. The instrument was tested for sensitivity, validity, and reliability.

The results indicated that when presented with information in opposition to their original opinion, regardless of their view of the endorser SCR’s opinion, respondents, in this order: 1. Changed their perception of the endorser’s attitude toward global warming (termed social meaning in this dissertation); 2. Changed their view of the value of the endorser’s opinion (i.e., referent meaning); and, lastly, 3. Changed their own opinion on global warming (i.e., object meaning).

This dissertation demonstrated that due to the effect of CD, attitude measurement of an endorsement can be improved by adding additional scales to measure the perceived social context (i.e., a social comparison referent [SCR]) of the endorsement. Evidence has shown that to change a consumer attitude toward a belief or product, the mediating effect of the endorser SCR on the attitude should be considered. The presence of the endorser SCR shows the relationship between congruity theory and balance theory, and is evidence that Lewin’s (1936) topological psychology suggested examination of the social context of attitude measurement will increase accuracy in estimating behavior. Measurement of the SCR is an important step in attitude measurement to minimize the effect of unintended or unknown social comparison threats to internal validity on measurement scales.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) programs seek to reduce loss of property and lives as the result of extreme events. These programs invest significant resources in collecting context-specific, participatory information and developing scientific (forecast) information to help them achieve their goals. This is despite significant evidence that such information does not contribute as easily or as directly to stated DRR goals as is generally assumed. Using the Policy Sciences social and decision process frameworks, this research maps program decision processes that seek to produce and use participatory and climate-related information. I begin by evaluating each program in terms of it stated goals and identifying the primary factors that shape project decision-making, influence the use of information in each program, and shape program outcomes. I conclude that although the two programs seek to produce and use very different kinds of information, they share two fundamental characteristics. First, both programs rely on deficit-model theories of change. Those designing and implementing the programs assume the production and use of information will automatically contribute to better decision-making and hence to desired outcomes. Secondly, these limited understandings of project dynamics allow project stakeholders to neglect the role power, accountability, and the incentives they created in shaping program decision-making and implementation. Although both programs seek to empower users and beneficiaries, they fail to establish monitoring and sanctioning mechanisms that ensure those beneficiaries can influence essential program decisions and outcomes. I conclude that given the structures of accountability common to many development programs, donors will likely have to take responsibility for ensuring downward accountability to the users or beneficiaries they seek to empower. By clarifying the relationship between information and the decision-processes in which its production and use are embedded, this research can help program managers develop and fund more effective programs. In particular, it emphasizes the importance of programs with more detailed, nuanced theories of change and greater attention to incentives and downward accountability.

State Climate Offices (SCO’s) in the United States are critical conduits for improving weather and climate data in local communities. Two states do not have a state-recognized SCO: Tennessee and Massachusetts. Efforts are underway at East Tennessee State University to develop the Tennessee Climate Office (TCO). Currently, climate services and products are severely lacking across Tennessee. This thesis provides an improved methodology for an existing TCO product and outlines the development of a new product using Python scripting. Daily storm reports within the monthly climate report are automated and a Weather Forecasts Hazard Index (WFHI) web application is developed. Both products utilize data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the automated daily storm reports providing substantial time savings and the WFHI providing a high resolution web application for emergency managers and others to interpret potentially hazardous forecasts for extreme temperatures, high winds, snowfall/ice accumulation, and tornado/hail events.

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.