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Abbas, Nahlah, Saleh Wasimi, Nadhir Al-Ansari, and Sultana Nasrin Baby. "Recent Trends and Long-Range Forecasts of Water Resources of Northeast Iraq and Climate Change Adaptation Measures." Water 10, no. 11 (November 2, 2018): 1562. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10111562.
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Iraq has been experiencing water resources scarcity, and is vulnerable to climate change. Analysis of historical data revealed that the region is experiencing climate change to a degree higher than generally reported elsewhere. The relationship between climate change and its effect on water resources of a region has been sparsely addressed in published literature. To fill that gap this research work first investigates if there has been a significant change in climate in the region, which has been found to be true. In the next stage, the research projects future climatic scenarios of the region based on six oft-used General Circulation Model (GCM) ensembles, namely CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, GFDL-ESM2M, MEROC5, HadGEM2-ES, and IPSL-CM5A-LR. The relationship between climate change and its impact on water resources is explored through the application of the popular, widely used SWAT model. The model depicts the availability of water resources, classified separately as blue and green waters, for near and distant futures for the region. Some of the findings are foreboding and warrants urgent attention of planners and decision makers. According to model outputs, the region may experience precipitation reduction of about 12.6% and 21% in near (2049–2069) and distant (2080–2099) futures, respectively under RCP8.5. Those figures under RCP4.5 are 15% and 23.4%, respectively and under RCP2.6 are 12.2% and 18.4%, respectively. As a consequence, the blue water may experience decreases of about 22.6% and 40% under RCP8.5, 25.8% and 46% under RCP4.5, and 34.4% and 31% under RCP2.6 during the periods 2049–2069 and 2080–2099, respectively. Green water, by contrast, may reduce by about 10.6% and 19.6% under RCP8.5, by about 14.8% and 19.4% under RCP4.5, and by about 15.8% and 14.2% under RCP2.6 during the periods 2049–2069 and 2080–2099, respectively. The research further investigates how the population are adapting to already changed climates and how they are expected to cope in the future when the shift in climate is expected to be much greater.
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Boykoff, Maxwell. "Consensus and contrarianism on climate change: How the USA case informs dynamics elsewhere." Mètode Revista de difusió de la investigació, no. 6 (April 15, 2016): 89. http://dx.doi.org/10.7203/metode.6.4182.
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Against a contrasting backdrop of consensus on key issues on climate science, a heterogeneous group dubbed climate «skeptics», «contrarians», «deniers» have significantly shaped contemporary discussions of climate science, politics and policy in the public sphere. This essay focuses on the USA context, and explores some of the intertwined social, political and economic factors, as well as cultural and psychological characteristics that have together influenced public attitudes, intentions, beliefs, perspective and behaviors in regards to climate change science and governance over time. This article makes the case that the USA example can inform developments elsewhere; as such it is important to consider these contextual elements to more capably appraise «contrarian», «skeptic», «denier» reverberations through the current public discussions on climate change.
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de Lima, Rafael Fausto, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, João Antonio Lorençone, Pedro Antonio Lorençone, Kamila Cunha de Meneses, José Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes, and Glauco de Souza Rolim. "Climate change in Brazil: future scenarios classified by Thornthwaite (1948)." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 146, no. 3-4 (October 5, 2021): 1367–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03803-w.
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Tschumi, Elisabeth, and Jakob Zscheischler. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters." Climatic Change 158, no. 3-4 (December 4, 2019): 593–609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02556-w.
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AbstractClimate-related disasters cause substantial disruptions to human societies. With climate change, many extreme weather and climate events are expected to become more severe and more frequent. The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) records climate-related disasters associated with observed impacts such as affected people and economic damage on a country basis. Although disasters are classified into different meteorological categories, they are usually not linked to observed climate anomalies. Here, we investigate countrywide climate features associated with disasters that have occurred between 1950 and 2015 and have been classified as droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves using superposed epoch analysis. We find that disasters classified as heat waves are associated with significant countrywide increases in annual mean temperature of on average 0.13 ∘C and a significant decrease in annual precipitation of 3.2%. Drought disasters show positive temperature anomalies of 0.08 ∘C and a 4.8 % precipitation decrease. Disasters classified as droughts and heat waves are thus associated with significant annual countrywide anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. During years of flood disasters, precipitation is increased by 2.8 %. Cold wave disasters show no significant signal for either temperature or precipitation. We further find that climate anomalies tend to be larger in smaller countries, an expected behavior when computing countrywide averages. In addition, our results suggest that extreme weather disasters in developed countries are typically associated with larger climate anomalies compared to developing countries. This effect could be due to different levels of vulnerability, as a climate anomaly needs to be larger in a developed country to cause a societal disruption. Our analysis provides a first link between recorded climate-related disasters and observed climate data, which is an important step towards linking climate and impact communities and ultimately better constraining future disaster risk.
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WÜNDISCH, JOACHIM. "Green Votes not Green Virtues: Effective Utilitarian Responses to Climate Change." Utilitas 26, no. 2 (December 19, 2013): 192–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0953820813000307.
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Implementing strategies to address climate change confronts us with an enormous collective action problem. Dale Jamieson argues that in order to avoid large-scale defection and, therefore, the collapse of any cooperative effort to curb climate change, utilitarians should become virtue theorists. As a tool to combat climate change, virtue change faces severe obstacles. First, the non-contingent green virtues envisioned by Jamieson are highly implausible. Second, even if such virtues could function, their inculcation would take too long to make the approach viable. Third, given its inherent inflexibility, virtue change is ill equipped to deal with the great scientific uncertainty created by climate change. To combat climate change utilitarians are well advised to look elsewhere: green votes and state sanctions.
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Wyman, Katrina M. "Are We Morally Obligated to Assist Climate Change Migrants?" Law & Ethics of Human Rights 7, no. 2 (December 1, 2013): 185–212. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/lehr-2013-0007.
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Abstract There is considerable concern that climate change will displace many people in developing countries from their homes. This article examines whether developed countries are morally obligated to assist people displaced by climate change in developing countries. The article argues that there may not be a moral duty to assist climate change migrants as a category. Nonetheless, developed countries may have duties to assist vulnerable people elsewhere and may be obligated to assist climate change migrants along with other vulnerable people. In addition, there likely is a duty to assist a particular subset of climate change migrants, specifically the citizens of small island countries existentially threatened by climate change. The article concludes by assessing the implications of its moral analysis for the focus of law and policy. Instead of developing new treaties to assist climate change migrants as a number of academics and practitioners have recently proposed, law and policy should be concerned with assisting migrants at risk generally, and/or the citizens of small island countries existentially threatened by climate change.
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Oladipo, Adenike, Adeneye O. A. Awofala, and Modupe M. Osokoya. "Investigating Pre-service Science, Technology, and Mathematics Teachers’ Attitudes toward Climate Change in Nigeria." Journal of Educational Sciences 4, no. 2 (April 23, 2020): 220. http://dx.doi.org/10.31258/jes.4.2.p.220-238.
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The study investigated attitudes toward climate change among 480 pre-service science, technology, and mathematics (STM) teachers from four higher institutions of learning in Southwest, Nigeria using the quantitative research method within the blueprint of the descriptive survey design. Data collected using climate change attitude survey were analysed using the descriptive statistics of percentages, mean, and standard deviation and inferential statistics of factor analysis and independent samples t-test. Findings revealed that attitudes toward climate change assessed by the climate change attitude survey was a multi-dimensional construct (perceived beliefs component and intentions component). Gender differences in attitudes toward climate change among pre-service STM teachers were not significant even at the subscale level of perceived beliefs and intentions. In addition, the pre-service STM teachers showed a moderate level of attitudes toward climate change. In conclusion, there is need for a concerted effort to protect the earth from increased weather variability and the Nigerian government at all levels has both international and domestic commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensuring sustainable human development. Future studies in Nigeria and elsewhere should conduct a confirmatory factor analysis on the climate change attitude survey to further generalise the findings of this study.
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Piria, Marina, Tena Radočaj, Lorenzo Vilizzi, and Mihaela Britvec. "Climate change may exacerbate the risk of invasiveness of non-native aquatic plants: the case of the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions of Croatia." NeoBiota 76 (October 3, 2022): 25–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.76.83320.
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Non-native aquatic plants are amongst the major threats to freshwater biodiversity and climate change is expected to facilitate their further spread and invasiveness. To date, in Croatia, no complete list of non-native extant and horizon aquatic plants has been compiled nor has a risk screening been performed. To address this knowledge gap, 10 extant and 14 horizon aquatic plant species were screened for their risk of invasiveness in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions of Croatia under current and predicted (future) climate conditions. Overall, 90% and 60% of the extant species were classified as high risk for the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions, respectively, under both climate scenarios. Of the horizon species, 42% were classified as high risk under current conditions and, under climate change, this proportion increased to 78%. The ‘top invasive’ species (i.e. scored as very high risk) under both climate conditions and for both regions were extant Elodea nuttallii and horizon Lemna aequinoctialis. The horizon Hygrophila polysperma was very high risk for the Mediterranean Region under current climate conditions and for both regions under projected climate conditions. Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Egeria densa and Utricularia gibba were also classified as high risk under current climate conditions and, after accounting for climate change, they became of very high risk in both regions. Further, Gymnocoronis spilanthoides and Lemna minuta were found to pose a very high risk under climate change only for the Pannonian Region. It is anticipated that the outcomes of this study will contribute to knowledge of the invasiveness of aquatic plants in different climatic regions and enable prioritisation measures for their control/eradication.
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Jamali, Azadeh, Maryam Robati, Hanieh Nikoomaram, Forough Farsad, and Hossein Aghamohammadi. "Urban Resilience and Climate Change: Developing a Multidimensional Index to Adapt against Climate Change in the Iranian Capital City of Tehran." Urban Science 7, no. 1 (January 12, 2023): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/urbansci7010007.
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Urban resilience studies have increased during recent years due to the significance of climate change as an alarming issue in centralized and highly populated cities where urban functionalities are disintegrated. Towards this aim, an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was enrolled to streamline the urban resilience to climate change over the 22 districts in Tehran after assessing the resilience objectivity. Based on the results, the city coverage was classified into best (41%), moderate (15%), low (14%), and least resilient (30%). In addition, the urban municipal districts were classified into five functional zones including Wellbeing-wealth (WWZ), Ecological Conservation (ECZ), Core (CZ), Downtown (DZ), and Neutral Zone (NZ) after evaluating the concept of urban functionality in the resilience framework. The results indicated that the socio-cultural component is considered as the fundamental necessity, along with eco-environmental and economic components in capacity building to urban climate resilience. In fact, more than half of the Tehran coverage is regarded as resilient. Thus, the rest should be prioritized, despite the need to inspire from top-ranked districts, especially D4. However, downtown and neutral zones, especially D9 and D21, which account for up to 12% of the least resilient areas, should be evaluated seriously. Finally, the robustness of the proposed methodology was compared to the studies addressing the same concept, and we offer some preparatory and adaptive measures for urban planners and policymakers.
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Chambers, Frank M., Michael I. Ogle, and Jeffrey J. Blackford. "Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 23, no. 2 (June 1999): 181–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339902300202.
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Current concern over ‘greenhouse’ warming and possible human influence upon global climate has been countered by claims that recent advances in solar theory demonstrate a greater role than previously thought for solar forcing in recent climate change. This is still disputed for this century, but new evidence from a range of palaeoenvironmental indicators lends strong support to the notion that not only the long-term (105 to 103 years) climate changes of the Pleistocene but also short-term (101 to 102 years) climate changes in the Holocene may derive in large or small part from solar variability. Evidence from recent research into proxy climate records is reviewed and set in the context of recent advances elsewhere in studies of late Quaternary palaeoenvironments and in solar science.
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Fyfe, John C., and Gregory M. Flato. "Enhanced Climate Change and Its Detection over the Rocky Mountains." Journal of Climate 12, no. 1 (January 1, 1999): 230–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-12.1.230.
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Abstract Results from an ensemble of climate change experiments with increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled Climate Model are presented with a focus on surface quantities over the Rocky Mountains. There is a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains in the winter and spring seasons, with more pronounced changes at higher elevations. The elevation signal is linked to a rise in the snow line in the winter and spring seasons, which amplifies the surface warming via the snow-albedo feedback. Analysis of the winter surface energy budget shows that large changes in the solar component of the radiative input are the direct consequence of surface albedo changes caused by decreasing snow cover. Although the warming signal is enhanced at higher elevations, a two-way analysis of variance reveals that the elevation effect has no potential for early climate change detection. In the early stages of surface warming the elevation effect is masked by relatively large noise, so that the signal-to-noise ratio over the Rocky Mountains is no larger than elsewhere. Only after significant continental-scale warming does the local Rocky Mountain signal begin to dominate the pattern of climate change over western North America (and presumably also the surrounding ecosystems and hydrological networks).
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Teng, J., F. H. S. Chiew, J. Vaze, S. Marvanek, and D. G. C. Kirono. "Estimation of Climate Change Impact on Mean Annual Runoff across Continental Australia Using Budyko and Fu Equations and Hydrological Models." Journal of Hydrometeorology 13, no. 3 (June 1, 2012): 1094–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-11-097.1.
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Abstract This paper presents the climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia estimated using the Budyko and Fu equations informed by projections from 15 global climate models and compares the estimates with those from extensive hydrological modeling. The results show runoff decline in southeast and far southwest Australia, but elsewhere across the continent there is no clear agreement between the global climate models in the direction of future precipitation and runoff change. Averaged across large regions, the estimates from the Budyko and Fu equations are reasonably similar to those from the hydrological models. The simplicity of the Budyko equation, the similarity in the results, and the large uncertainty in global climate model projections of future precipitation suggest that the Budyko equation is suitable for estimating climate change impact on mean annual runoff across large regions. The Budyko equation is particularly useful for data-limited regions, for studies where only estimates of climate change impact on long-term water availability are needed, and for investigative assessments prior to a detailed hydrological modeling study. The Budyko and Fu equations are, however, limited to estimating the change in mean annual runoff for a given change in mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. The hydrological models, on the other hand, can also take into account potential changes in the subannual and other climate characteristics as well as provide a continuous simulation of daily and monthly runoff, which is important for many water availability studies.
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Dakskobler, Igor, Andrej Martinčič, and Daniel Rojšek. "Phytosociological Analysis Of Communities With Adiantum Capillusveneris In The Foothills Of The Julian Alps (Western Slovenia)." Hacquetia 13, no. 2 (December 1, 2014): 235–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/hacq-2014-0016.
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Abstract We conducted a phytosociological study of the communities hosting the rare and endangered fern Adiantum capillus-veneris in the foothills of the Julian Alps, in Karst and in Istria. Based on a comparison with similar communities elsewhere in the southern Alps (northern Italy) we classified most of the recorded stands into the syntaxa Eucladio-Adiantetum eucladietosum and -cratoneuretosum commutati. Releves from the southern Julian Alps, located in comparatively slightly colder and moister local climate and the dolomite bedrock are classified into the new subassociation -hymenostylietosum recurvirostri subass. nova. Stands with the abundant occurrence of the liverwort Conocephalum conicum, are classified in to the new subassociation -conocephaletosum conici subass. nova. Stands in conglomerate rock shelters along the Soča at Solkan are classified into the new association Phyteumato columnae-Adiantetum ass. nova, a community of transitional character between the classes Adiantetea capilli-veneris and Asplenietea trichomanis.
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Berman, Matthew, and Jennifer I. Schmidt. "Economic Effects of Climate Change in Alaska." Weather, Climate, and Society 11, no. 2 (January 25, 2019): 245–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-18-0056.1.
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Abstract We summarize the potential nature and scope of economic effects of climate change in Alaska that have already occurred and are likely to become manifest over the next 30–50 years. We classified potential effects discussed in the literature into categories according to climate driver, type of environmental service affected, certainty and timing of the effects, and potential magnitude of economic consequences. We then described the nature of important economic effects and provided estimates of larger, more certain effects for which data were available. Largest economic effects were associated with costs to prevent damage, relocate, and replace infrastructure threatened by permafrost thaw, sea level rise, and coastal erosion. The costs to infrastructure were offset by a large projected reduction in space heating costs attributable to milder winters. Overall, we estimated that five relatively certain, large effects that could be readily quantified would impose an annual net cost of $340–$700 million, or 0.6%–1.3% of Alaska’s GDP. This significant, but relatively modest, net economic effect for Alaska as a whole obscures large regional disparities, as rural communities face large projected costs while more southerly urban residents experience net gains.
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Van Bogaert, Rik, Sylvie Gauthier, Frédéric Raulier, Jean-Pierre Saucier, Dominique Boucher, André Robitaille, and Yves Bergeron. "Exploring forest productivity at an early age after fire: a case study at the northern limit of commercial forests in Quebec." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 45, no. 5 (May 2015): 579–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2014-0273.
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Interest in northern forests is increasing worldwide for both timber production and climate change mitigation. Studies exploring forest productivity at an early age after fire and its determining factors are greatly needed. We studied forest productivity, defined as the combined quality of stocking and growth, of 116 10- to 30-year-old postfire sites. The sites were spread over a 90 000 km2 area north of the Quebec commercial forestry limit and were dominated by Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. and Pinus banksiana Lamb. Seventy-two percent of our sites were classified as unproductive, mainly because of poor growth. Because growth was mostly determined by climatic factors, afforestation alone may not be sufficient to increase stand productivity in our study area. In addition, our results suggest that P. banksiana on dry sites may be less resilient to fire than previously thought, presumably because of poor site quality and climate. Overall, this is one of the first studies to explore productivity issues at an early age in natural northern forests, and the analysis scheme that defines forest productivity as the result of growth and stocking could provide a useful tool to identify similar issues elsewhere.
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Ding, Weicheng, Hongyu Li, and Junbao Wen. "Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)." Insects 13, no. 1 (January 5, 2022): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects13010059.
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Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.
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Gandía, María Luisa, Carlos Casanova, Francisco Javier Sánchez, José Luís Tenorio, and María Inés Santín-Montanyá. "Arable Weed Patterns According to Temperature and Latitude Gradient in Central and Southern Spain." Atmosphere 11, no. 8 (August 13, 2020): 853. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080853.
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(1) Background: In agro-ecosystems, the success of the crops has a strong connection to biodiversity in the landscape. In the face of climate change, it is important to understand the response to environmental variation of weed species by means of their distribution. In the last century, biodiversity has been impacted due to a variety of stresses related to climate change. Although the composition of vegetation tends to change at a slower rate than climate change, we hypothesize species present in weed communities are distributed in diverse patterns as a response to the climate. Therefore, the general aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of temperature, using latitude as an indicator, on the composition and distribution of weed communities in agro-ecosystems. (2) Methods: Weeds were monitored in georeferenced cereal fields which spanned south and central Spanish regions. The graphic representation according to latitude allowed us to identify groups of weeds and associate them to a temperature range. We classified weeds as generalist, regional, or local according to the range of distribution. (3) Results: The monitoring of species led to the classification of weeds as generalist, regional or local species according to latitude and associated temperature ranges. Three weed species that were present in all latitude/temperature regions, were classified as generalist (Linaria micrantha (Cav) Hoffmanns & Link, Sonchus oleraceous L., and Sysimbrium irium L.). The species were classified as regional or local when their presence was limited to restricted latitude/temperature ranges. One weed, Stellaria media (L.) Vill., was considered a local species and its distribution dynamics can be considered an indicator of temperature. (4) Conclusions: The novel methodology used in this study to assign weed distribution as an indicator of climatic conditions could be applied to evaluate climate gradients around the world.
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Melott, Adrian L., Brian C. Thomas, and Brian D. Fields. "Climate change via CO2 drawdown from astrophysically initiated atmospheric ionization?" International Journal of Astrobiology 19, no. 5 (May 28, 2020): 349–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1473550420000117.
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AbstractMotivated by the occurrence of a moderately nearby supernova near the beginning of the Pleistocene, possibly as part of a long-term series beginning in the Miocene, we investigated whether nitrate rainout resulting from the atmospheric ionization of enhanced cosmic ray flux could have, through its fertilizer effect, initiated carbon dioxide drawdown. Such a drawdown could possibly reduce the greenhouse effect and induce the climate change that led to the Pleistocene glaciations. We estimate that the nitrogen flux enhancement onto the surface from an event at 50 pc would be of order 10%, probably too small for dramatic changes. We estimate deposition of iron (another potential fertilizer) and find it is also too small to be significant. There are also competing effects of opposite sign, including muon irradiation and reduction in photosynthetic yield caused by UV increase from stratospheric ozone layer depletion, leading to an ambiguous result. However, if the atmospheric ionization induces a large increase in the frequency of lightning, as argued elsewhere, the amount of nitrate synthesis should be much larger, dominate over the other effects and induce the climate change. More work needs to be done to clarify the effects on lightning frequency.
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Gallardo, Adrian H. "Groundwater levels under climate change in the Gnangara system, Western Australia." Journal of Water and Climate Change 4, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 52–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.106.
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The Gnangara system is the main source of freshwater for Perth, Western Australia. However, aquifers in the region are under severe stress due to a drying climate, intensive pumping and changes in land use. The aim of this study is to apply the mean rainfall cumulative deviation and Mann-Kendall analyses at 77 monitoring bores to investigate the response of the water table to key recharge components. This information is critical for setting new allocation limits and reviewing current policies in the region. Results show that overall there is a good correspondence between water levels and rainfall fluctuations. Areas of groundwater recharge are highly sensitive to climate change and have been severely affected by reduction in rainfall rates in recent years. Further, removal of pine plantations correlated well with a rise in groundwater levels although the effect seems to be temporary. The impact of pumping is mainly observed in vicinities of public-supply borefields. Elsewhere, water table trends show a relative stabilisation indicating that storage still exceeds the influence of rainfall reduction in areas dominated by through flow or groundwater discharge. The study contributes to update the status of the Gnangara groundwater resource, and provides new insights for the sustainable management of one of the main aquifer systems in Australia.
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Partanen, A. I., A. Laakso, A. Schmidt, H. Kokkola, T. Kuokkanen, J. P. Pietikäinen, V. M. Kerminen, K. E. J. Lehtinen, L. Laakso, and H. Korhonen. "Climate and air quality trade-offs in altering ship fuel sulfur content." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 23 (December 12, 2013): 12059–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12059-2013.
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Abstract. Aerosol particles from shipping emissions both cool the climate and cause adverse health effects. The cooling effect is, however, declining because of shipping emission controls aiming to improve air quality. We used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to test whether by altering ship fuel sulfur content, the present-day aerosol-induced cooling effect from shipping could be preserved, while at the same time reducing premature mortality rates related to shipping emissions. We compared the climate and health effects of a present-day shipping emission scenario (ship fuel sulfur content of 2.7%) with (1) a simulation with strict emission controls in the coastal waters (ship fuel sulfur content of 0.1%) and twofold the present-day fuel sulfur content (i.e. 5.4%) elsewhere; and (2) a scenario with global strict shipping emission controls (ship fuel sulfur content of 0.1% in coastal waters and 0.5% elsewhere) roughly corresponding to international agreements to be enforced by the year 2020. Scenario 1 had a slightly stronger aerosol-induced effective radiative forcing (ERF) from shipping than the present-day scenario (−0.43 W m−2 vs. −0.39 W m−2) while reducing premature mortality from shipping by 69% (globally 34 900 deaths avoided per year). Scenario 2 decreased the ERF to −0.06 W m−2 and annual deaths by 96% (globally 48 200 deaths avoided per year) compared to present-day. Our results show that the cooling effect of present-day emissions could be retained with simultaneous notable improvements in air quality, even though the shipping emissions from the open ocean clearly have a significant effect on continental air quality. However, increasing ship fuel sulfur content in the open ocean would violate existing international treaties, could cause detrimental side-effects, and could be classified as geoengineering.
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Cornes, Isabel Clare, and Brian Cook. "Localising climate change: heatwave responses in urban households." Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal 27, no. 2 (April 3, 2018): 159–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-11-2017-0276.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical insights into urban household perceptions and (in)action towards the perceived impacts of climate change, based on a case study in Kensington, Victoria, Australia. This case utilises households as sites of active agency, rather than as passive recipients of climate change or associated governance. Design/methodology/approach This research trialled an approach to engaging a community in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR). It involved a two-stage quantitative door-knocking survey (reported elsewhere), followed by a qualitative interview with interested households. In total, 76 quantitative surveys contextualise 15 qualitative interviews, which are the focus of this analysis. The findings are presented comparatively alongside the current literature. Findings Heatwaves are understood to be the most concerning hazard for the households in this sample who associate their increasing frequency and severity with climate change. However, subsequent (in)action is shown to be situated within the complexities of day-to-day activities and concerns. While respondents did not consider themselves to have “expert” knowledge on climate change, or consider their actions to be a direct response to climate change, most had undertaken actions resulting from experience with heatwaves. These findings suggest there may be an under-representation of DRR, which includes climate change adaptation actions, within the existing research. Research limitations/implications While this sample justifies the arguments and conclusions, it is not a representative sample and therefore requires follow-up. It does however challenge traditional approaches to risk management, which focus on awareness raising and education. The research highlights the unique contexts in which households perceive and act on risk, and the need for risk “experts” to consider such contexts. Originality/value This research provides empirical evidence of urban household responses to perceived climate change-related risk, an often-neglected dimension of heatwave and adaptation studies in Australia. The findings also suggest promise for the methodological approach.
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Tingley, Martin P. "A Bayesian ANOVA Scheme for Calculating Climate Anomalies, with Applications to the Instrumental Temperature Record." Journal of Climate 25, no. 2 (January 15, 2012): 777–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00008.1.
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Abstract Climate datasets with both spatial and temporal components are often studied after removing from each time series a temporal mean calculated over a common reference interval, which is generally shorter than the overall length of the dataset. The use of a short reference interval affects the temporal properties of the variability across the records, by reducing the standard deviation within the reference interval and inflating it elsewhere. For an annually averaged version of the Climate Research Unit’s (CRU) temperature anomaly product, the mean standard deviation is 0.67°C within the 1961–90 reference interval, and 0.81°C elsewhere. The calculation of anomalies can be interpreted in terms of a two-factor analysis of variance model. Within a Bayesian inference framework, any missing values are viewed as additional parameters, and the reference interval is specified as the full length of the dataset. This Bayesian scheme is used to re-express the CRU dataset as anomalies with respect to means calculated over the entire 1850–2009 interval spanned by the dataset. The mean standard deviation is increased to 0.69°C within the original 1961–90 reference interval, and reduced to 0.76°C elsewhere. The choice of reference interval thus has a predictable and demonstrable effect on the second spatial moment time series of the CRU dataset. The spatial mean time series is in this case largely unaffected: the amplitude of spatial mean temperature change is reduced by 0.1°C when using the 1850–2009 reference interval, while the 90% uncertainty interval of (−0.03, 0.23) indicates that the reduction is not statistically significant.
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Wang, Danmeng, Ruolan Li, Guoxi Gao, Nueryia Jiakula, Shynggys Toktarbek, Shilin Li, Ping Ma, and Yongzhong Feng. "Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kazakhstan." Agriculture 12, no. 8 (July 23, 2022): 1087. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12081087.
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Global food production faces immense pressure, much of which can be attributed to climate change. A detailed evaluation of the impact of climate change on the yield of staple crops in Kazakhstan, a major food exporter, is required for more scientific planting management. In this study, the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen Median slope were used to determine climate trends and staple food yields over the past 30 years; random forest was used to analyze the importance of monthly climatic factors; states were classified according to climatic factors through systematic clustering method; and lastly, the influence of climate on yield was analyzed using panel regression models. The upward trend in wind speed and potato yield throughout Kazakhstan was apparent. Furthermore, barley and wheat yields had increased in the southeast. We determined that for wheat, frostbite should be prevented after the warmer winters in the high-latitude areas. Except for July–August in the low-latitude areas, irrigation water should be provided in the other growth periods and regions. As similar effects were reported for barley, the same preventive measures would apply. For potatoes, tuber rot, caused by frost or excessive precipitation in May, should be prevented in high-latitude areas; soil dryness should be alleviated during the germination and seedling stages in low-latitude areas; and irrigation and cooling should be maintained during tuber formation and maturation. Furthermore, hot dry air in March and April could damage the crops.
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Danielescu, Serban, Mihai Cristian Adamescu, Sorin Cheval, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Constantin Cazacu, Mihaela Borcan, and Carmen Postolache. "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Processes in a South-Eastern European Catchment." Water 14, no. 15 (July 27, 2022): 2325. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14152325.
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The output extracted from CNRM, MPR, and ICHEC Global Circulation Models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways has been used in conjunction with the SWAT model for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes on hydrological processes in a Romanian catchment (Neajlov, 3720 km2 area) in the short (2021–2050) and long term (2071–2100). During the growing season, precipitation will decrease by up to 7.5% and temperature will increase by up to 4.2 °C by 2100. For the long term (2071–2100), the decrease in soil water content (i.e., 14% under RCP 4.5 and 21.5% under RCP 8.5) and streamflow (i.e., 4.2% under RCP 4.5 and 9.7% under RCP 8.5) during the growing season will accentuate the water stress in an already water-deficient area. The snow amount will be reduced under RCP 8.5 by more than 40% for the long term, consequently impacting the streamflow temporal dynamics. In addition, our results suggest that hydrological processes in the lower portions of the catchment are more sensitive to climate change. This study is the first Romanian catchment-scale study of this nature, and its findings support the development of tailored climate adaptation strategies at local and regional scales in Romania or elsewhere.
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Turak, E., R. Marchant, L. A. Barmuta, J. Davis, S. Choy, and L. Metzeling. "River conservation in a changing world: invertebrate diversity and spatial prioritisation in south-eastern coastal Australia." Marine and Freshwater Research 62, no. 3 (2011): 300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf09297.
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Concentration of human populations with likely impacts of climate change present major challenges for river conservation in the south-eastern coastal region of Australia. Quantitative methods for spatial prioritisation of conservation actions can play a major role in meeting these challenges. We examined how these methods may be applied to help plan for potential impacts of climate change in the region, using macroinvertebrate assemblages as surrogates of river biodiversity. Environmental gradients explaining broad-scale patterns in the composition of macroinvertebrate assemblages are well represented in protected areas; however, their effectiveness for conserving river biodiversity with climate change depends on linking management inside and outside protected areas. Projected increases in temperature and sea level may be used to prioritise conservation to counter likely major impacts in high-altitude zones and the coastal fringes, whereas elsewhere, considerable uncertainty remains in the absence of better downscaled projections of rainfall. Applying such spatial prioritisations using biodiversity surrogates could help river-focussed conservation around the world.
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EGBE, OLAWARI D. J. "NATIONAL POLICIES AS IMPEDIMENT TO THE PARIS CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT: THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA IN FOCUS." WILBERFORCE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 40–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.36108/wjss/0202.sp.0130.
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This paper, in reliance of the ‘Metaphor of Two-Level Games Theory, examined the policy somersaults of successive administrations of the U.S. on global environmental issues. The paper discovered that domestic interests in the U.S. interfere with its global environmental issues. Climate change in the U.S. is politics intertwined on economic, political and social complexes often handled along party ideological leanings. The Republican Party, leadership, and supporters (e.g. the coal and fossil fuel industries) who are the principal owners/beneficiaries of agricultural and natural resource lands are adamant to accept climate change science; arguing policies and actions on climate change are likely to impact majorly on these interests and so reneges on climate science, not excluding organising backlashes against environmental groups. The paper recommended in making the case that the focus on the U.S. can inform developments elsewhere. Furthermore, it recommended that the average American and indeed the Republican Party followership should have a rethink to consider climate change as a subsisting calamity rather than trivialising climate change science on account of party identification, political ideology, relative concern about environmental conservation vis-à-vis economic growth and party’s affinity with the global oil industry.
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Chen, Yunlong, Xiujuan Shan, Ning Wang, Xianshi Jin, Lisha Guan, Harry Gorfine, Tao Yang, and Fangqun Dai. "Assessment of fish vulnerability to climate change in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea." Marine and Freshwater Research 71, no. 7 (2020): 729. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf19101.
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Vulnerability assessments provide a feasible yet infrequently used approach to expanding our understanding and evaluating the effects of climate change on fish assemblages. Here, we first used a fuzzy-logic expert system to quantitatively estimate the vulnerability and potential impact risks of climate change for fish species in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea (BSYS). The mean (±s.d.) vulnerability and the impact-risk indices for 25 dominant fish species were 51±22 and 62±12 respectively (with the highest possible value being 100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Miiuy croaker (Miichthys miiuy) was found to have the highest impact risk, whereas the glowbelly (Acropoma japonicum) had the lowest. Demersal fishes tended to be more vulnerable than pelagic fishes, whereas the opposite was found for impact risks. No significant correlation was found between species biomass and vulnerability (P>0.05). The assessment provided a comprehensive framework for evaluating climate effects in the BSYS and suggested that interspecific and habitat group differences should be considered when developing future climate-adaptive fishery policies and management measures in this region, as well as similar systems elsewhere in the world.
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Bilen, Christine, Daniel El Chami, Valentina Mereu, Antonio Trabucco, Serena Marras, and Donatella Spano. "A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems." Plants 12, no. 1 (December 25, 2022): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12010102.
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Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports indicate that climate change (CC) will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease coffee-suitable land by 2050. This article adopted the systematic review approach to provide an update of the literature available on the impacts of climate change on coffee production and other ecosystem services following the framework proposed by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. The review identified 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia). The current literature evaluates and analyses various climate change impacts on single services using qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Impacts have been classified and described according to different impact groups. However, available research products lacked important analytical functions on the precise relationships between the potential risks of CC on coffee farming systems and associated ecosystem services. Consequently, the manuscript recommends further work on ecosystem services and their interrelation to assess the impacts of climate change on coffee following the ecosystem services framework.
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Saddique, Naeem, Muhammad Jehanzaib, Abid Sarwar, Ehtesham Ahmed, Muhammad Muzammil, Muhammad Imran Khan, Muhammad Faheem, Noman Ali Buttar, Sikandar Ali, and Christian Bernhofer. "A Systematic Review on Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in Pakistan toward Climate Change." Atmosphere 13, no. 8 (August 11, 2022): 1280. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081280.
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Pakistan is among the countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced severe floods and droughts during recent decades. The agricultural sector in Pakistan is adversely affected by climate change. This systematic review paper set out to analyze the existing literature on adaptation measures at the farm level toward climate change in Pakistan. Adopting a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method, a total of 62 articles were identified from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The review paper indicates that the main adaptation strategies adopted by farmers are as follows: changing cropping practices, changing farm management techniques, advanced land use management practices, and nonagriculture livelihood options. Further, this review shows the factors influencing the farmer’s adaptation measures to climate change. Influencing factors were examined and classified into three groups: demographic, socioeconomic, and resources and institutional. Barriers hindering farmers’ adaptive capacity were identified as lack of access to information and knowledge, lack of access to extension services, lack of access to credit facility, and lack of farm resources.
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Archer van Garderen, E. R. M. "(Re) Considering Cattle Farming in Southern Africa under a Changing Climate." Weather, Climate, and Society 3, no. 4 (October 1, 2011): 249–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-11-00026.1.
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Abstract Scientists in southern Africa and elsewhere focusing on climate change and agriculture are increasingly demonstrating how livestock, as a highly climate sensitive sector, may be affected by climate change. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) observes, for example, that “Projected increased temperature, combined with reduced precipitation in some regions (e.g., Southern Africa) would lead to increased loss of domestic herbivores during extreme events in drought-prone areas” (Easterling et al.). Response and policy discussions around climate change and agriculture in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region have, however, thus far tended to focus far more on staple crops. The latest projected future temperatures for southern Africa show a clear increase across most models. Further, temperatures in exceedance of tested livestock comfort thresholds are indicated for the future, particularly for those months of most concern to cattle farmers. Enabling adaptation in the livestock sector should thus be a significant focus of a country’s response to climate change, particularly in countries where the livestock sector is a critical component of the formal and informal economy. Although innovations are often a primary component of livestock adaptation plans under design, it is now recognized that longstanding approaches to the management of livestock may well have valuable lessons for future adaptation. Such approaches include the reintroduction of genetically diverse and resilient breeds, as well as increased support and incentives for those farmers planning and undertaking such approaches.
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Maldonado-Méndez, María de Lourdes, José Luis Romo-Lozano, Julio Baca del Moral, and Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas. "Multidimensional Typology of Mexican Farmers in the Context of Climate Change." Agriculture 12, no. 8 (July 22, 2022): 1079. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12081079.
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Mexico has a wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions that result in farmers with highly diverse traits and activities in relation to their livelihoods. The aim of this research was to identify specific traits of Mexican farmers that would allow them to be classified through a multidimensional approach that includes the risk of production in the face of exposure and vulnerability to climate change. The method included three dimensions: producer sensitivity, production destination, and exposure to climate change. Principal component analysis combined with the Dalenius and Hodges optimal stratification technique was used to stratify the universe of agricultural producers. The results show that up to 227 groups of agricultural producers can be identified in Mexico, and it was possible to classify them into 19 types, ranging from agricultural producers at greatest risk due to the adverse effects of climate change to agricultural producers with fewer difficulties to produce in conditions of climate change. This proposed multidimensional typology of agricultural producers can become an essential input for designing, reorienting, or focusing public policies in the agricultural sector and moving towards fulfilling the commitments declared in the INDC-2030.
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Lorençone, João Antonio, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido, Pedro Antonio Lorençone, Rafael Fausto de Lima, and Guilherme Botega Torsoni. "Assessment of Climate Change Using Humidity index of Thornthwaite Climate Classification in Pantanal Biome." Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 37, no. 1 (March 2022): 99–119. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786370075.
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Abstract Thornthwaite climate classification indices are essential to interpret climate types in the state of the pantanal biome (Mato Grosso do Sul), simplifying calculation process and interpretation of climatological water balance by farmers. However, there are few studies found in the literature that characterize the climate of pantanel biome in different climatic scenarios. We seek to assess climate change using humidity index of Thornthwaite climate classification in pantanal biome. We used historical series of climate data from all 79 municipalities of Mato Grosso do Sul between 1987 and 2017, which were divided into microregions. Air temperature and precipitation were collected on a daily scale. Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data allowed calculating water balance by the Thornthwaite and Mather method. We characterized all locations as wet and dry using aridity indices proposed by Thornthwaite. The global climate model used was BCC-CSM 1.1 developed at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) with a resolution of 125 x 125 km. We used the scenarios RCP-2.6, RCP-4, RCP-6 and RCP-8.5 for analyzing 21st century projections (2041-2060 and 2061-2080 periods). Maps were generated from climate indices of Mato Grosso do Sul using kriging interpolation method with spherical model, one neighbor, and 0.25° resolution. The microregions showed different patterns regarding water balance components and humidity index. Humidity index had a mean of 15.94. The prevailing climate in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul is C2 (moist subhumid). The state of Mato Grosso do Sul has two well-defined periods during the year: a dry and a rainy period. Three climate types predominate in Mato Grosso do Sul and, according to the Thornthwaite classification, are B1 (humid), C2 (moist subhumid), and C1 (dry subhumid). Water characterization in Mato Grosso do Sul showed 234.78 mm year−1 of water surplus, 80.8 mm year−1 of water deficit, and 1,114.8 mm year−1 of potential evapotranspiration. Water deficit and potential evapotranspiration decrease as latitude increases. The climatic projections show, in all scenarios, reduce the area classified as umida in the state (B1, B2 and B3), besides adding the dry subhumid class (C1). The Scenario RCP 8.5 in 2061 - 2080 is the most worrisome situation of all, because the state can undergo major changes, especially in the pantanal biome region.
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Anderson, Kevin, and Alice Bows. "Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, no. 1934 (January 13, 2011): 20–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0290.
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The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2 ° C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2 ° C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2 ° C now more appropriately represents the threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.
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Halperin, Abby, and Peter Walton. "The Importance of Place in Communicating Climate Change to Different Facets of the American Public." Weather, Climate, and Society 10, no. 2 (March 23, 2018): 291–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-16-0119.1.
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Abstract While the need for action on climate change is urgent, individual-level behaviors to mitigate or adapt to the problem have not tracked with the increasing urgency for action. Place-based communication of climate change may catalyze action by making climate change more personally relevant. However, there is no one general public, so communication efforts can unintentionally polarize beliefs. This study aims to fill the gap in knowledge about how and why different audiences respond to place-based climate change communication, which could aid climate change communication efforts and climate scientists. Results from an experimental survey of 655 Californians and follow-up interviews indicate that prior climate change beliefs influence the effectiveness of place-based climate change communication. In particular, those who were already “concerned” about climate change, as classified by the Six Americas, were the only group to show a significant response to an intervention. This study also finds no difference in willingness to adapt to climate change between local and global framings. However, those exposed to a local framing were more likely to take personal-scale adaptation actions, while those exposed to a global framing were more likely to take policy-scale adaptation actions. These results, and the theories of place attachment and psychological distance, suggest that place-based communication may only be applicable for certain audiences (e.g., the concerned) and when the scale of the intervention matches the scale of action.
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Ahove, Michael Adetunji. "Paradigm Shifts of the African Worldview." Environmental Ethics 40, no. 4 (2018): 343–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/enviroethics201840433.
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Africa is the most vulnerable region of the world due to anthropogenic climate change challenges on account of dependence on nature for the sustenance of agriculture as her main source of income, high level of poverty, and low level of literacy. Climate change adaptation involves strategies of adjusting to the negative effects of climate change, while climate change mitigation involves techniques that help to reduce production of greenhouse gases through burning fossil fuels. The African worldview from the frontier of Nigerian epistemological and ontological perspectives as it finds expression in climate change adaptation and mitigation is built on the foundations of its relationship with nature, traditional religion and belief systems, agricultural practices, and some other day-to-day practices. Worldview analysis of the contemporary Nigerian has been conducted and classified into Original African, Westernized African, and Little Here-and-There African, a paradigm existing in Nigerians irrespective of level of Western education. What will be the fate of the younger Nigerian climate scientist in a globalized and technologically competitive world? This question gives rise to further discussion on the principles and application of the theory of Culturo-Techno-Contextual Approach as postulated by Peter A. Okebukola and applied to creating an environment for meaningful learning on climate change adaptation and mitigation for the future generations of Nigerians.
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Sethi, Mahendra, Li-Jing Liu, Eva Ayaragarnchanakul, Aki Suwa, Ram Avtar, Akhilesh Surjan, and Shilpi Mittal. "Integrated Climate Action Planning (ICLAP) in Asia-Pacific Cities: Analytical Modelling for Collaborative Decision Making." Atmosphere 13, no. 2 (January 31, 2022): 247. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020247.
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While climate change has global causations and impacts, there is growing consensus on addressing the 2 °C challenge through local actions. However, at the local level, there is disintegrated knowledge on the following: (a) short-, mid- and long-term climate vulnerability, (b) economy and GHG structures and their future pathways, and (c) useful mitigation and adaptation undertaken elsewhere. We evaluate these gaps through a comprehensive review of scientific literature and policy approaches of urban-climate studies in the Asia-Pacific Region. Based on the research findings, we develop a collaborative research framework of an integrated climate action planning (ICLAP) model for evidence-based decision-making tool. It adopts an innovative methodology integrating knowledge and data from diverse analytics, as follows: (a) spatial: downscaling global/regional climate scenarios to forecast local climate variability (50 km × 50 km) for 2030 (SDG target) and 2050; (b) statistical: a meta-analysis of 49 five-million-plus cities to forecast economic, energy and GHG scenarios; (c) bibliometric: a systematic review of global urban climate interventions from Google Scholar that collectively aid cities on policy inputs for mid-term climate variability, GHG profiles and available solutions at their disposal. We conclude with a discussion on scientific and policy relevance of such a tool in fostering overall urban, regional and global sustainability.
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Zhao, Junyuan, and Shengjie Wang. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Tourism Comprehensive Climate Comfort in Henan Province, China." Atmosphere 12, no. 7 (June 27, 2021): 823. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070823.
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The tourism comprehensive climate comfort index (TCCI) was used to evaluate the tourism climate comfort in Henan Province in the last 61 years, and its future development trend is predicted. The results showed that the temporal variation of the TCCI had a “double peak” type (monthly variation), and an overall comfort improvement trend (interannual variation). The change of tourism climate comfort days was similar to the change of the index, especially in the months with a low comfort level. In space, the distribution of the TCCI gradually increased from northeast to southwest, and the area with a high comfort level also increased over time. Meanwhile, it also showed the spatial distribution of months with a low comfort level, which provides reliable information for tourists to use when choosing tourist destinations across all periods of the year. The TCCI was classified by hierarchical classification, and principal components were extracted to explore the main climate factors controlling different types of TCCIs and the relationship between them, and large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability. According to the temporal change trend and correlation, the long-term change trend of tourism climate comfort was predicted, which will provide a scientific basis for tourism planners to choose tourist destinations.
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Selek, Bulent, I. Kaan Tuncok, and Zeliha Selek. "Changes in climate zones across Turkey." Journal of Water and Climate Change 9, no. 1 (October 27, 2017): 178–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.121.
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Abstract Turkey lies in a critical region that is projected to be one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean region. In this study, climatic zones of Turkey were classified with respect to their climatic and meteorological characteristics. The Thornthwaite precipitation efficiency index was used to identify aridity and humidity characteristics. The index values were mapped to determine climate zones and associated climate classes and to evaluate change in time and space. Two distinct periods (1950–1980 and 1981–2010) were used to assess climatic conditions and evaluate historical changes. The Thornthwaite index indicated significant spatial variations of climate parameters across Turkey with varying degrees of vulnerability. The results indicate that during the 60-year time frame, no arid zones had been experienced in Turkey. On the other hand, an increase of semi-dry and dry humid zones and a decrease of semi-dry–less humid, semi-humid and humid zones had been experienced. In this context, it is important to note that semi-arid zones have increased substantially (approximately 14%) between the two 30-year periods.
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Nikouei, Alireza, and Roy Brouwer. "Welfare values of sustained urban water flows for recreational and cultural amenities under climate change." Journal of Water and Climate Change 8, no. 1 (July 26, 2016): 13–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.119.
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The main objective of this study is to estimate the welfare values related to sustained water flows in the Zayandeh-Rud River for recreational and cultural amenities in the urban park of Isfahan City in Iran. As is elsewhere the case in arid regions, the drying up of the river due to growing water demand and the increasingly constrained water supply as a result of climate change and more frequent droughts is expected to result in a substantial welfare loss. A double-bounded discrete choice elicitation format is applied in a stated choice survey conducted among local residents and non-residential visitors, focusing on distance-decay and the relationship between income and demand for sustained water flows in publicly provided urban space under climate change. We reject the general finding in the literature that visitors living further away are willing to pay more for unique sites. We show that the recreational services provided by the park can be characterized as a normal economic good for which those living closer by are willing to pay more than those living further away. These results provide an important benchmark for future stated preference research related to welfare valuation of water in urban open space under climate change.
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Dunkerley, David. "Sub-Daily Rainfall Intensity Extremes: Evaluating Suitable Indices at Australian Arid and Wet Tropical Observing Sites." Water 11, no. 12 (December 11, 2019): 2616. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11122616.
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Rainfall intensity extremes are relevant to many aspects of climatology, climate change, and landsurface processes. Intensity is described and analysed using a diversity of approaches, reflecting its importance in these diverse areas. The characteristics of short-interval intensity extremes, such as the maximum 5-min intensity, are explored here. It is shown that such indices may have marked diurnal cycles, as well as seasonal variability. Some indices of intensity, such as the SDII (simple daily intensity index), provide too little information for application to landsurface processes. Upper percentiles of the intensity distribution, such as the 95th and 99th percentiles (Q95 and Q99) are used as indices of extreme intensity, but problematically are affected by changes in intensity below the nominated threshold, as well as above it, making the detection of secular change, and application to sites with contrasting rainfall character, challenging. For application to landsurface processes, a new index is introduced. This index (RQ95), is that intensity or rainfall rate above which 5% of the total rainfall is delivered. This index better reflects intense rainfall than does Q95 of even 5-min accumulation duration (AD) rainfall depths. Such an index is helpful for detecting secular change at an observing station, but, like Q95, remains susceptible to the effects of change elsewhere in the distribution of intensities. For understanding impacts of climate and climate change on landsurface processes, it is argued that more inclusive indices of intensity are required, including fixed intensity criteria.
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Yue, X., L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca. "Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15, no. 17 (September 8, 2015): 10033–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015.
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Abstract. We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere.
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Makwiza, Chikondi, Musandji Fuamba, Fadoua Houssa, and Heinz Erasmus Jacobs. "Estimating the impact of climate change on residential water use using panel data analysis: a case study of Lilongwe, Malawi." Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development 8, no. 2 (September 26, 2017): 217–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2017.056.
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Abstract In this study, panel linear models were used to develop an empirical relationship between metered household water use and the independent variables plot size and theoretical irrigation requirement. The estimated statistical model provides a means of estimating the climate-sensitive component of residential water use. Ensemble averages of temperature and rainfall projections were used to quantify potential changes in water use due to climate change by 2050. Annual water use per household was estimated to increase by approximately 1.5% under the low emissions scenario or 2.3% under the high emissions scenario. The model results provide information that can enhance water conservation initiatives relating particularly to outdoor water use. The model approach presented utilizes data that are readily available to water supply utilities and can therefore be easily replicated elsewhere.
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Baharlouii, M., D. Mafi Gholami, and M. Abbasi. "INVESTIGATING MANGROVE FRAGMENTATION CHANGES USING LANDSCAPE METRICS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-4/W18 (October 18, 2019): 159–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-4-w18-159-2019.
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Abstract. Generally, investigation of long-term mangroves fragmentation changes can be used as an important tool in assessing sensitivity and vulnerability of these ecosystems to the multiple environmental hazards. Therefore, the aim of this study was to reveal the trend of mangroves fragmentation changes in Khamir habitat using satellite imagery and Fragstats software during a 30-year period (1986–2016). To this end, Landsat images of 1986, 1998, and 2016 were used and after computing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to distinguish mangroves from surrounding water and land areas, images were further processed and classified into two types of land cover (i.e., mangrove and non-mangrove areas) using the maximum likelihood classification method. By determining the extent of mangroves in the Khamir habitat in the years of 1986, 1998 and 2017, the trend of fragmentation changes was quantified using CA, NP, PD and LPI landscape metrics. The results showed that the extent of mangroves in Khamir habitat (CA) decreased in the period post-1998 (1998–2016). The results also showed that, the NP and PD increased in the period of post-1998 and in contrast, the LPI decrease in this period. These results revealed the high degree of vulnerability of mangroves in Khamir habitat to the drought occurrence and are thus threatened by climate change. We hope that the results of this study stimulate further climate change adaptation planning efforts and help decision-makers prioritize and implement conservative measures in the mangrove ecosystems on the northern coasts of the PG and the GO and elsewhere.
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SUCHIT K. RAI, SUNIL KUMAR, and MANOJ CHAUDHARY. "Detection of annual and seasonal temperature variability and change using non-parametric test- A case study of Bundelkhand region of central India." Journal of Agrometeorology 23, no. 4 (November 11, 2021): 402–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.54386/jam.v23i4.144.
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Consequences of global warming and climate change are major threat to humans and their socio-economic activities. Agriculture of Bundelkhand region is supposed to be more vulnerable due to emerging scenario of climate change and poor socio-economic status of farming community. Many studies carried out elsewhere have shown evidence of regional temperature variability along with global climate changes. This study focuses on the temporal variability and trend in annual and seasonal temperature (1901-2012) at six locations of Bundelkhand region. The results of the analysis reveal that the annual maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) temperature has significantly increasing trend in all the locations in the range of 0.5 to 2.0oC 100 year-1 and 0.5 to 1.1 oC 100 year-1, respectively. Seasonal analysis revealed warming trend in both TMax (0.6-2.6oC100 year-1) and TMin (0.9 to 2.3 oC 100 year-1) during post-monsoon and winter season in all the locations. Majority of the locations showed cooling trend (0.3-1.0 oC 100 year-1), in the mean maximum and minimum temperature during monsoon season except at two locations i.e Jhansi and Banda. However, a significant positive trends (2.9 oC) in the TMin was found for the period of hundred years at Banda district during monsoon season.
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Hall, C. M., G. Hansen, F. Sigernes, and K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz. "Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11, no. 11 (June 15, 2011): 5485–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-5485-2011.
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Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.
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Ritter, Renátó. "Banking Sector Exposures to Climate Risks : Overview of Transition Risks in the Hungarian Corporate Loan Portfolio." Financial and Economic Review 21, no. 1 (2022): 32–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.33893/fer.21.1.32.
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Risks arising from climate change can have a serious impact on the operation of the financial system. In this study, the credit exposures of banks and bank branches operating in Hungary are assessed using two methodologies. To put the results of the analysis into context, they are compared with the results of the survey conducted by the European Banking Authority using the same methodologies. Based on both methodologies, Hungarian institutions may be exposed to the negative effects of climate change at a higher rate than their counterparts in the European Union. Using the two methods together, risk groups were formed, on the basis of which 1.2 per cent of Hungarian institutions were classified in the upper quartile and more than 55 per cent of the banking system was classified in the upper-middle quartile. The methods presented can help not only assess the banking system’s transition exposures at the systemic level, they can also be used to assess corporate credit exposures at the institutional level.
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Kunkel, Kenneth E., Xin-Zhong Liang, and Jinhong Zhu. "Regional Climate Model Projections and Uncertainties of U.S. Summer Heat Waves." Journal of Climate 23, no. 16 (August 15, 2010): 4447–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3349.1.
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Abstract Regional climate model (RCM) simulations, driven by low and high climate-sensitivity coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) under various future emissions scenarios, were compared to projected changes in heat wave characteristics. The RCM downscaling reduces the CGCM biases in heat wave threshold temperature by a factor of 2, suggesting a higher credibility in the future projections. All of the RCM simulations suggest that there is a high probability of heat waves of unprecedented severity by the end of the twenty-first century if a high emissions path is followed. In particular, the annual 3-day heat wave temperature increases generally by 3°–8°C; the number of heat wave days increases by 30–60 day yr−1 over much of the western and southern United States with slightly smaller increases elsewhere; the variance spectra for intermediate, 3–7 days (prolonged, 7–14 days), temperature extremes increase (decrease) in the central (western) United States. If a lower emissions path is followed, then the outcomes range from quite small changes to substantial increases. In all cases, the mean temperature climatological shift is the dominant change in heat wave characteristics, suggesting that adaptation and acclimatization could reduce effects.
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Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models’ Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4253.1.
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Abstract The coupled climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are evaluated. The evaluation is focused on 12 regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. The evaluation is based on probability density functions and a simple quantitative measure of how well each climate model can capture the observed probability density functions for each variable and each region is introduced. Across all three variables, the coupled climate models perform better than expected. Precipitation is simulated reasonably by most and very well by a small number of models, although the problem with excessive drizzle is apparent in most models. Averaged over Australia, 3 of the 14 climate models capture more than 80% of the observed probability density functions for precipitation. Minimum temperature is simulated well, with 10 of the 13 climate models capturing more than 80% of the observed probability density functions. Maximum temperature is also reasonably simulated with 6 of 10 climate models capturing more than 80% of the observed probability density functions. An overall ranking of the climate models, for each of precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures, and averaged over these three variables, is presented. Those climate models that are skillful over Australia are identified, providing guidance on those climate models that should be used in impacts assessments where those impacts are based on precipitation or temperature. These results have no bearing on how well these models work elsewhere, but the methodology is potentially useful in assessing which of the many climate models should be used by impacts groups.
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Kim, Sinae, Hakkwan Kim, Kyeung Kim, Sang-Min Jun, Soonho Hwang, and Moon-Seong Kang. "Assessing the Hydroclimatic Movement under Future Scenarios Including both Climate and Land Use Changes." Water 13, no. 8 (April 19, 2021): 1120. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13081120.
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In this study we simulated the watershed response according to future climate and land use change scenarios through a hydrological model and predicting future hydroclimate changes by applying the Budyko framework. Future climate change scenarios were derived from the UK Earth system model (UKESM1), and future land use changes were predicted using the future land use simulation (FLUS) model. To understand the overall trend of hydroclimatic conditions, the movements in Budyko space were represented as wind rose plots. Moreover, the impacts of climate and land use changes were separated, and the watersheds’ hydroclimatic conditions were classified into five groups. In future scenarios, both increase and decrease of aridity index were observed depending on the watershed, and land use change generally led to a decrease in the evaporation index. The results indicate that as hydroclimatic movement groups are more diversely distributed by region in future periods, regional adaptation strategies could be required to reduce hydroclimatic changes in each region. The results derived from this study can be used as basic data to establish an appropriate water resource management plan and the governments’ land use plan. As an extension of this study, we can consider more diverse land use characteristics and other global climate model (GCMs) in future papers.
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De Vivo, Carmela, Marta Ellena, Vincenzo Capozzi, Giorgio Budillon, and Paola Mercogliano. "Risk assessment framework for Mediterranean airports: a focus on extreme temperatures and precipitations and sea level rise." Natural Hazards 111, no. 1 (October 21, 2021): 547–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05066-0.
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AbstractThe increase of frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change gives evidence of severe challenges faced by infrastructure systems. Among them, the aviation sector is particularly at risk from the potential consequences of climate change. Airports are classified as critical infrastructures because they provide fundamental functions to sustain societies and economic activities. More specifically, Mediterranean airports face risks associated with sea level rise, higher occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events. These aspects require the implementation of appropriate risk assessments and definition of targeted adaptation strategies, which are still limited in the Mediterranean region. The aim of the present paper is to provide theoretical frameworks in order to assess risks of climate change on Mediterranean airports, related to extreme temperature, extreme precipitation and sea level rise. Starting from a review of the literature, we first identify the sources of climate risk that may induce potential impacts on airports, here divided in air side and land side components. In order to do so, we select a series of indicators used as proxies for identifying hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The application of these theoretical frameworks allows defining the level of risk associated to each hazard, with the goal to support the identification of specific adaptation measures for the Mediterranean airports.