Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate change impacts and adaptation'
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Slagle, John T. "Climate change in Myanmar: impacts and adaptation." Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/44672.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedMyanmar is a Least Developed Nation, according to the UN, and therefore is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of a changing climate. To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate change, this thesis analyzes projected impacts on the nation and its people, the current state of adaptation, and how Myanmar’s government has prepared. Projected impacts are viewed through the lens of the most recent IPCC reports and climate models, and discussed in relation to vulnerable areas in Burmese society and governance. This thesis concludes that Myanmar’s environment, people and society are at a significant risk; higher temperatures, altered precipitation rates, and higher sea levels will lead to reduced agriculture output, the spread of disease, and loss of habitable land. Though recent governmental action has laid the framework for suitable adaptation measures, slow progress in past decades has left Myanmar highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Myanmar’s next election is scheduled for 2015, and the emerging leaders have the opportunity to make significant progress in climate change adaptation. Cooperation between Myanmar’s new leaders and the international community could accelerate the nation’s adaptation efforts and result in significant progress on climate change preparedness projects.
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Serrat, Capdevila Aleix. "Climate Change Impacts in Hydrology: Quantification and Societal Adaptation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194702.
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The research presented here attempts to bridge science and policy through the quantification of climate change impacts and the analysis of a science-fed participatory process to face a sustainability challenge in the San Pedro Basin (Arizona). Paper 1 presents an assessment of a collaborative development process of a decision support system model between academia and a multi-stakeholder consortium created to solve water sustainability problems in a local watershed. This study analyzes how science-fed multi-stakeholder participatory processes lead to sustainability learning promoting resilience and adaptation. Paper 2 presents an approach to link an ensemble of global climate model outputs with a hydrological model to quantify climate change impacts in the hydrology of a basin, providing a range of uncertainty in the results. Precipitation projections for the current century from different climate models and IPCC scenarios are used to obtain recharge estimates as inputs to a groundwater model. Quantifying changes in the basin's water budget due to changes in recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) rates are assumed to depend only on groundwater levels. Picking on such assumption, Paper 3 explores the effects of a changing climate on ET. Using experimental eddy covariance data from three riparian sites, it analyzes seasonal controls on ET. An approach to quantify evapotranspiration rates and growing season length under warmer climates is proposed. Results indicate that although atmospheric demand will be greater, increasing pan and reference crop evaporation, ET rates at the studied field sites will remain unchanged due to stomatal regulation. However, the length of the growing season will increase, mainly with an earlier leaf-out and at a lesser level by a delayed growing season end. These findings - implying decreased aquifer recharge, increased riparian water use and a lesser water balance - are very relevant for water management in semi-arid regions. Paper 4, in which I am second author, explores the theory relating changes in area-average and pan evaporation. Using the same experimental data as Paper 3, it corroborates a previous theoretical relationship and discusses the validity of Bouchet's hypothesis.
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Deryng, Delphine. "Climate change and global crop yield : impacts, uncertainties and adaptation." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2014. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/50712/.
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As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers' adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the choice of crop modelling approach and; (4) simpli�ed the representation of farming adaptation strategies. This research aimed to assess climate change impacts on global crop yield that accounts for the knowledge gaps listed above, based on the further development and application of the global crop model PEGASUS. Four main research topics are presented. First, I investigated the roles of extreme heat stress at anthesis on crop yield and uncertainties related to the use of seventy-two climate change scenarios. I showed large disparities in impacts across regions as extreme temperatures adversely a�ects major areas of crop production and lower income countries, the latter appear likely to face larger reduction in crop yields. Second, I coordinated the �rst global gridded crop model intercomparison study, comparing simulations of crop yield and water use under climate change. I found modelled global average crop water productivity increases by up to 17�20.3% when including carbon fertilisation e�ects, but decreases to {28�13.9% when excluding them; and identi�ed fundamental uncertainties and gaps in our understanding of crop response to elevated carbon dioxide. Third, to link climate impacts with adaptation, I introduced the recently developed concept of representative agricultural pathways and examined their potential use in models to explore farming adaptation options within biophysical and socio-economic constraints. Finally, I explored tradeo�s between increasing nitrogen fertiliser use to close the global maize yield gap and the resulting nitrous oxide emissions. I found global maize production increases by 62% based on current harvested area using intensive rates of nitrogen fertiliser. This raises the share of nitrous oxide emissions associated with maize production from 20 to 32% of global cereal related emissions. Finally, these results demonstrated that in some regions increasing nitrogen fertiliser application, without addressing other limiting factors such as soil nutrient imbalance and water scarcity, could raise nitrous oxide emissions without enhancing crop yield.
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Pons, Pons Marc. "Climate change impacts on winter tourism in the Pyrenees and adaptation strategies." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/284721.
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Climate Change has become no longer a conjecture but an objective reality. The increase of the global average temperature, the seas level rise or the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are some examples observed during the past century that have turned the global warming into a sharply contrasted evidence. In this context of climate change, mountain regions have been defined as especially vulnerable areas. The rapid retreat of glaciers and permafrost surfaces, the decrease of snow precipitations, the increase of natural risks such as landslides or the alteration in the amount and distribution of some species prove the high sensitivity of mountain ecosystems. Moreover, in many mountain economies, reliable snowpack plays a key role as an important resource for the winter tourism industry, one of the main income source and driving force of local development in such regions. For this reason, research on the effects of Climate Change on the snowpack depth and duration is particularly necessary in order to assess the potential socioeconomic impacts in mountain regions. If we focus on Andorra and the Pyrenees, there is a research gap due to a clearly lack of academic studies in this field. For this reason, it is not accurately known how Climate Change will affect the ski industry and which are the most suitable adaptation strategies for this specific region.
The main goal of this research is to analyze how climate change could affect the snow cover and the snowpack in the Pyrenean ski resorts and to assess the resulting vulnerability of the ski industry of this region. Moreover, the adaptive behavior of skiers to climate change has been included in the analysis in order to analyze the potential redistribution of visitors among the ski resorts due to heterogeneous climate change vulnerability. Based on the results, this study analyzes the suitability and sustainability of the adaptation techniques and strategies to offset the climate variability, first in a case study of Andorra in order to develop a preliminary model and finally extending the analysis to the whole Pyrenees in order to assess the potential concurrence among ski resorts with differentiated climate vulnerability and tourism attractiveness and the resulting redistribution of skiers based on their behavioral adaptation to climate effects.
Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions and two more including the effect of snowmaking. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.En els darrers anys, el canvi climàtic ha passat de ser una conjectura a una realitat objectiva. L'increment de la temperatura en superfície, l'increment del nivell del mar o l'increment de la freqüència i la magnitud d'alguns fenòmens meteorològics extrems són alguns exemples de canvis observats durant el segle passat que han fet el canvi climàtic una evidència contrastada. En aquest context, les regions de muntanya han estat identificades com a zones especialment vulnerables. El retrocès de les glaceres, els canvis en els patrons de precipitacions en forma de neu o les alteracions en la quantitat i la distribució d'algunes espècies animals i vegetals són algunes proves de l'alta sensitivitat dels ecosistemes de muntanya. A més a més, en moltes economies de muntanya, la disponibilitat de neu juga un paper clau com a recurs fonamental del turisme d'hivern, una de les principals activitats econòmiques i important motor de desenvolupament local en aquestes regions. Per aquest motiu, entendre els efectes del canvi climàtic sobre la cobertura de neu, i especialment en les zones d'esquí, és especialment necessària per tal d'avaluar alguns dels possibles impactes socioeconòmics en les regions de muntanya. Si ens centrem en el cas d'Andorra i el Pirineu en general, existeix una manca d'estudis acadèmics que analitzin amb detall com el canvi climàtic pot afectar el turisme d'hivern i quines serien les estratègies d'adaptació més adequades. El principal objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar com el canvi climàtic projectat pot afectar la cobertura de neu a les estacions d'esquí alpí del Pirineu i avaluar la vulnerabilitat del sector de l'esquí en aquesta regió. Degut a que la vulnerabilitat de les estacions no és homogenia a tota la regió Pirenaica, la tesi també analitza la capacitat adaptativa dels esquiadors per tal d'avaluar la potencial redistribució entre estacions menys vulnerables i més resilients. A partir d'aquests resultats, s'analitza la ideneïtat i sostenibilitat de les opcions d'adaptació en funció del grau de vulnerabilitat. Primer de tot, s'ha realitzat un primer cas d'estudi centrat en Andorra, per tal de desenvolupar la metodologia i un model preliminar. Finalment s'ha estés l'estudi a la resta del Pirineu afegint-ne l'efecte de l'adaptació dels esquiadors i la possible redistribució resultant entre les estacions amb una atractivitat turística i vulnerabilitat climàtica diferenciada. S'han considerat 4 escenaris diferents. Dos assumint un increment de la temperatura mitjana de +2°C i +4°C respectivament i tenint en compte només condicions de neu natural i dos més incorporant-ne l'efecte de la producció de neu de cultiu pels mateixos increments de temperatura. Els resultats mostren diferents graus de vulnerabilitat de les estacions, permetent-ne la seva classificació en tres grups: (1) estacions altament vulnerables amb fortes reduccions de la cobertura de neu i de la freqüentació per a tots els escenaris, caracteritzades per unes condicions geogràfiques i d'atractivitat turístiques menys favorables; (2) estacions de baixa vulnerabilitat, amb una reducció moderada de la temporada d'esquí en un escenari de major increment de temperatura pero amb poca o nula afectació en un escenari moderat, caracteritzades per una atractivitat mitja i millors condicions per assegurar una major temporada que les estacions més vulnerables; i (3) estacions resilients amb condicions geogràfiques privilegiades i una alta atractivitat turística, amb capacitat d'oferir temporades més llargues i amb millors condicions de neu i per tant amb el potencial d'atraure esquiadors d'aquelles estacions més vulnerables. Tot i que estudis similars projecten una reducció significativa del turisme d'hivern en diverses regions del planeta degut al canvi climàtic, els resultats d'aquesta tesi s'inclinen cap a una futura redefinició del sector com a conseqüència de la redistribució d'esquiadors de les estacions més vulnerables cap a les més resilients.
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Brown, Helen. "Health impacts of climate change in urban areas: a pathway to adaptation." Thesis, Curtin University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/719.
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Human health and well-being will be increasingly affected by climate change over the course of this century. Adaptation is a critical, yet highly complex challenge. This thesis develops a pathway for this challenge through the use of systems approaches within a Health Impact Assessment framework. Applied to the dual challenge of climate change and urbanisation in Perth, the research provides recommendations to create a healthier, more climate-resilient city for future generations.
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Guido, Zack Scott. "Informing Climate Adaptation: Climate Impacts on Glacial Systems and the Role of Information Brokering in Climate Services." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/347309.
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Recent climate changes show that the historical record is not an appropriate analog for future climate conditions. This understanding calls into question management decisions that assume climate stationarity and consequently the demand for climate information has increased in order to help frame climate risk more accurately. However, deficits in knowledge about climate impacts and weak connections between existing information and resource managers are two barriers to effective incorporation of climate information in resource management, development, risk management, and other climate-sensitive decisions. In research presented here, I showcase results that address knowledge gaps in the impact of climate on glacial resources in Bolivia, South America. I present a mixing model analysis using isotopic and anion tracers to estimate that glacial meltwater contributed about 50% of the water to streams and reservoirs in La Paz region of Bolivia during the 2011 wet and 2012 dry seasons. To assess how future warming may impact water supplies, I develop a temperature-driven empirical model to estimated changes in a future glacial area. Surface temperature changes were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of global climate models produced for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report and for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In both scenarios, declines in glacial area are substantial. For many small glaciers, temperatures at the toe of each glacier rise above the glacier's maximum elevation by 2050 suggesting that water resources will be substantially impacted with continued warming. While these results address a knowledge gap, the extent to which they inform resource management is unknown because the research was conducted without an explicit connection to resource management. Information produced in this fashion is generally acknowledged as being less immediately useful for decision-making because of access and comprehension barriers. These challenges may be mollified, however, with information management strategies. Therefore, I present results from an experiment to see if translating and contextualizing existing climate-related information - information produced similarly to the glacier results highlighted above - help facilitate its use. During a drought afflicted period in Arizona and New Mexico, a monthly synthesis of climate impacts information was disseminated to more than 1400 people. Survey responses from 117 people who consulted the information indicated that the majority of them made at least one drought-related decision and the information in the synthesis at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions. In addition, more than 90% of the survey respondents indicated that the synthesis improved their understanding of climate and drought; it also helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. The results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding of climate information.
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Muir, Martin C. A. "Climate change and conservation policy : developing adaptation strategies to minimise climate change impacts to the conservation interest of Scotland's standing freshwaters." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2016. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/514a1848-7417-49ac-9fff-a1da69913939.
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There is little doubt that anthropogenic climate change will have long lasting, unavoidable, large scale and cross sector effects. Having a clear understanding of the scale and rate of projected future changes, and the potential impacts of those changes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, will be important to allow environmental managers the best chance of adapting to changing conditions. There are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of direct impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Expected changes can be grouped into three functional categories: those affecting physico-chemical (broadly water quality), hydromorphological (physical structure and habitat) and biological elements of the lake system. The Lake-Landscape Context framework provides a way of approaching the sensitivity or resilience of an individual lake to change by exploring the complex and multi-layered relations between water, land and human activity. However, the exact combination of strategies and actions available to environmental managers is yet to be comprehensively documented beyond broad principles. To reach this goal, to manage our ecosystems in the most comprehensive and responsible way, we need to have a clear understanding of what and where that resource is, what the conservation priorities currently are and where threats to these priorities are likely to emerge. Therefore, the overall aim of this thesis was to develop adaptation strategies to minimise climate change impacts on the conservation interests of Scotland’s standing freshwater. This was approached through the adoption of the ESVRA conceptual framework, intended to assist policymakers and practitioners in adaptation planning. Practical actions can be guided by working through the framework’s four key stages: understanding exposure to the pressure (external drivers); considering the sensitivity and resilience of the system at multiple scales (internal functions); exploring areas of vulnerability (a measure of sensitivity plus exposure); and consideration of multiple possible responses across spatial and temporal scales. Chapter 2 explores the lake resource making use of the latest geospatial data and GIS techniques to investigate Scottish standing freshwaters in depth. 5,165 Scottish lakes exhibit an outstanding myriad of forms and sizes ranging across the country. This variety of form, density and distribution contribute to habitats of international importance for numerous species. Perhaps because of this diversity, no natural grouping of lakes were found based on simple hydromorphological categorisations. The use of landscape and wildness ‘scoring’ is a novel geographic approach, which may be an important factor in how landscapes are valued in the future. Chapter 3 investigates the direct exposure to global climate change facing Scotland. Projected changes to global climate were downscaled to illustrate impact on the UK and Scotland using both the UKCP09 and HadGEM2-ES climate models. Climate change by the 2050s will impact the UK in the range 1.1°C to 2.7°C with a clear South-East/North-West gradient. Precipitation too is projected to change in the UK in this time, with annual precipitation varying from -65 to +116 mm/yr. By incorporating the climate model data into a GIS it was possible to further interrogate the results for specific locations, with a detailed water balance model created for all 5165 lakes. This model suggests that during the summer months there will be sustained periods of water scarcity and deficit. Finally, in this chapter, a climate change spatial risk assessment was undertaken, identifying 200 lakes in the area of greatest projected change. Leading on from these findings, Chapter 4 explores the vulnerability of Scotland’s standing freshwaters. A vulnerability framework attempts to place resilience as a key part of the model, which has to date been missing from similar assessments. The expert weighted scoring mechanism highlights 851 of Scotland’s standing freshwaters, geographically spread across the country, as being highly vulnerable to projected climate changes. The results were mapped to show the vulnerability across Scotland and a display system for individual lakes proposed that allows a transparent and coherent structure that can shed light on distinct components of vulnerability, so that each can be evaluated individually, and in combination. Finally, in Chapter 5, a multipart online survey with key stakeholder experts actively involved in freshwater environmental management was produced to approach adaptation strategies and actions themselves. Over 80 adaptation actions specifically applicable to Scotland’s standing freshwaters were collated and grouped into 12 adaptation strategies. All 12 strategies were considered desirable with six strategies considered ‘Definitely feasible’, a further four considered ‘Likely feasible’. This provides a framework of potential actions that could help to reduce system sensitivity by increasing adaptive capacity or system resilience. In conclusion, while there are undoubtedly challenges ahead for Scotland’s standing freshwaters and for those who manage them, there is clear opportunity to make proactive and engaged decisions to minimise the impact of climate changes on the conservation interest of these important habitats.
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Nhemachena, Charles. "Agriculture and future climate dynamics in Africa impacts and adaptation options /." Thesis, Pretoria : [s.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-05302009-122839/.
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Mirzabaev, Alisher [Verfasser]. "Climate Volatility and Change in Central Asia : Economic Impacts and Adaptation / Alisher Mirzabaev." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1043057293/34.
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Mahdu, Omchand. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Small Farmers' Adaptation: A Case of Guyana." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/89087.
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Prior research has concluded that climate change is having an overall negative impact on rice production worldwide. The vast majority of climate change impacts on rice production result from fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, which lead to flooding, water scarcity, and increases in insects and pests, diseases, and weeds. As a small developing country, Guyana is highly vulnerable to climate change despite its insignificant contribution to global warming. Guyana heavily relies on rice cultivation for food, employment, and export earnings. While generally increasing, rice yields have fluctuated over the last two decades. For example, in 2016, rice yields declined by 12.7 percent due to a drought. This dissertation explores the relationship between fluctuating yields and climate change, and how farmers are adapting.
Of particular importance are the impacts of climate change on small farmers (those cultivating less than 4.45 hectares or 11 acres) and their ability to successfully adapt. Small farmers are especially vulnerable to a changing climate because they often lack the necessary knowledge, support, and resources to effectively respond and adapt. Given the large percentage of rice farmers engaging in small-scale production in Guyana, this study investigates the impacts of climate variability on rice production and the extent to which the production and productivity of small farmers are affected. It also identifies the coping strategies small farmers employ to combat the effects of climate change and the extent to which these strategies are successful.
Given that climate change is expected to vary across different regions of the world, the first aim of this study is to show how the climate in Guyana has changed. At the country level, evidence from descriptive statistics, a linear trend model, and a two-sample t-test shows that minimum and maximum temperatures have increased over the last 111 years. The aggregate data is less clear on changes in precipitation over the last 111 years.
However, analysis of farm-level data provides strong evidence of shifts in rainfall patterns. Among 189 small farmers interviewed, 182 (96.3%) perceived changes in rainfall patterns, 170 (89.9%) perceived changes in temperature, 169 (89.4%) perceived changes in extreme weather events, 185 (97.9%) perceived changes in insects and pests, 73 (38.6%) perceived changes in diseases, and 168 (88.9%) perceived changes in weeds.
Changes in precipitation have included an increase in intensity and out of season rainfall, which has impacted harvesting due to poor dams, wet fields, and the lodging of plants. The primary responses farmers have adopted include adjusting planting dates based on water availability and the cultivation of different rice varieties. Changes in temperature have resulted in hotter days, accelerating the evaporation of water from fields. In response, farmers replenish water in their fields, when available. Excess rainfall and resulting flooding, drought, and heavy winds have been the primary extreme weather events observed. Excess rainfall and associated flooding submerges, uproots, and/or kills young plants. The lodging of plants due to heavy winds and flooding has been the main impact. In response to flooding, farmers have pumped water out of their fields. There is very little that farmers can do in response to heavy winds.
The primary change in insects and pests reported by farmers has been an increase in paddy bug infestations, which cause damage to the grains resulting in lower quality and quantity at harvest. As a result, farmers are engaging in more preventative spraying. An increase in brown spot disease was also reported. Brown spots are primarily found on the leaves, damaging and/or stunting the growth of the plants by reducing the amount of food they manufacture through photosynthesis. Farmers have responded by engaging in preventative spraying and the rotation of fungicides. Increases in red rice and duckweed have been the major changes in weeds observed. Both weeds compete with rice for space, sunlight, nutrients, and water. Additionally, red rice reduces the quality and by extension the price farmers receive. Farmers are responding by spraying more herbicide and using a contact chemical to burn red rice.
Multivariate analysis of farm-level data found that land tenure, tractor ownership, membership in an agricultural organization(s), secondary non-agricultural income, and farms located in regions two and four have positive correlations with annual yields. Perceived changes in rainfall, farm size, livestock ownership, participation in rice extension training, and household members help with rice farming were found to have negative correlations with annual yields.
Policy recommendations to improve rice production and farmers' resilience include improving research and development capacity; tax exemption for agricultural inputs and equipment; improving extension services; improving the management of irrigation systems and water resources; enhanced access to credit, insurance, and subsidies; improving weather forecasting and climate monitoring; and improving the management of drainage infrastructure.
The analytical framework used in this research produced a rich dataset and interesting results that are important to our understanding of farm-level impacts and responses to climate change. As such, it may prove useful for studying climate change impacts in other developing countries that have similar characteristics and face similar risks from climate change as Guyana.Doctor of Philosophy
The vast majority of climate change impacts on rice production result from variations in rainfall and temperature that lead to flooding, water shortage, and increases in insects and pests, diseases, and weeds. Guyana is highly exposed to climate change. More importantly, the country relies heavily on rice farming for food, employment, and foreign income. Of particular importance are the impacts of climate change on small farmers (growing less than 4.45 hectares) and their ability to successfully adapt. Small farmers are especially helpless because they often lack the necessary knowledge, support, and resources to effectively respond and adapt. Given the large percentage of rice farmers engaged in small-scale production in Guyana, this study explores the impacts of climate variability on rice production and the extent to which the production and output of small farmers are affected. Analysis of farm-level data shows that changes in rainfall have included an increase in intensity and out of season rainfall which has affected harvesting due to poor farm-to market roads, wet fields, and lodging of plants. The main responses involved adjusting planting dates based on water availability and the cultivation of different rice varieties. Changes in temperature resulted in hotter days which increased the loss of water from the field. In response, farmers replenish water in their fields, when available. Excess rainfall and resulting flooding, drought, and heavy winds have been the main extreme weather events observed. Excess rainfall and associated flooding submerges, uproots, and/or kills young plants. The lodging of plants due to heavy winds and flooding has been the main impact. In response to flooding, farmers have pumped water out of their fields. There is very little that farmers can do in response to heavy winds. An increase in paddy bug infestations damaged the grains resulting in lower grain quality while an increase in red rice and duckweed increased the competition for space, sunlight, nutrients, and water. Farmers engaged in more defensive spraying and used a contact chemical to burn red rice.
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Smid, Marek. "Climate change and impacts in the urban systems." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Jaume I, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/666679.
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A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Geographic Information SystemsUrban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also impact hotspots. The processes of global warming and urban population growth make our urban agglomerations vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and cost-effective assessment of future climate impact is of high importance. Two major approaches emerge from the literature: i) detailed spatially explicit assessments, and ii) more holistic approaches consistently assessing multiple cities. In this multidisciplinary thesis both approaches were addressed. Firstly, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures of climate projections in the process of urban planning. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localised information on future climate extreme events, these methods are not widely exploited in the process of urban planning. The first part of this research attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatologists. First, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the spatial scale represents an important linkage between urban and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies. The second part of this work is devoted to the assessment of impacts of extreme temperatures across the European capital cities. In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and socio-economic variables as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that all the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. Cold waves will represent some threat in mid of the century, but they are projected to completely vanish by the end of this century. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality. Such a simplistic but descriptive multi-risk urban indicator has two major uses. Firstly, it communicates the risk associated with climate change locally and in a simple way. By allowing to illustratively relate to situations of other capitals, it may help to engage not only scientists, but also the decision makers and general public, in efforts to combat climate change. Secondly, such an indicator can serve as a basis to decision making on European level, assisting with prioritizing the investments and other efforts in the adaptation strategy. Finally, this study transparently communicates the magnitude of future heat, and as such contributes to raise awareness about heat waves, since they are still often not perceived as a serious risk. Another contribution of this work to communication of consequences of changing climate is represented by the MetroHeat web tool, which provides an open data climate service for visualising and interacting with extreme temperature indices and heat wave indicators for European capitals. The target audience comprises climate impact researchers, intermediate organisations, societal-end users, and the general public.
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Weber, Marie-Christin. "How do water companies adapt to climate change impacts?" Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-135903.
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The primary objective of this work was to analyse how water companies are affected by climate change and how they try to adapt to it. Therefore, a systematic literature review was being accomplished.
The work is being divided into a theoretical and a methodological part. First of all an overview of the climatic changes that are projected to occur during the next years is being given. Then, resulting impacts on the water cycle are being pointed out. Furthermore, raw water sources, water companies obtain water from are being defined as well as the treatment process. Within the methodological part the approach of a systematic literature review is being applied, which includes the selection of references as well as their evaluation.
The results of the literature review are that concerning the effects of climate change on water companies, the risks water providers might face, clearly predominate possible opportunities. Especially the deterioration of the raw water quality caused by increasing temperatures, floods as well as heavy rainfalls can be seen as a serious problem. Moreover, the most often mentioned adaptation strategies are dealing with quantitative water problems such as measures to increase storage as well as treatment capacity or leakage reductions.
All in all it can be stated that there is still uncertainty about how climate change is going to effect water companies, especially concerning water quality changes and the treatment process.
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Finger, Robert. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in Swiss cereal production : integrating biophysical and economic modeling /." Zürich : ETH, 2009. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=18191.
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Weatherdon, Lauren Vanessa. "Scenarios for coastal First Nations' fisheries under climate change : impacts, resilience and adaptation potential." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/48599.
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Recent studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distribution and relative abundance of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies focus on assessing impacts to commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts to small-scale fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates that are of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in relative abundance are projected for most of the sampled species (n = 84 to 95; x̅ = -15.0% to -20.8%) under both the lower and upper scenarios of climate change, with poleward range shifts occurring at a mean rate of 2.9 and 4.5 kilometres decade-1 for fishes and 2.7 to 3.4 kilometres decade-1 for invertebrates within BC’s exclusive economic zone. While cumulative declines in catch potential are projected to occur coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the north and central coasts experiencing less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models, and highlight key management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change. Drawing from an interdisciplinary literature review of First Nations’ traditional fisheries management strategies and historical responses to changes in the availability of aquatic resources, a scenario-based framework is applied to explore climate-resilient pathways for First Nations’ fisheries given quantitative projections. Findings suggest that joint-management frameworks incorporating First Nations’ traditional ecological knowledge could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies. This interdisciplinary framework thereby facilitates proactive discussions of potential mitigation and adaptation strategies deriving from local fishers’ knowledge that could be used to respond to a range of climate change scenarios.Science, Faculty of
Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for
Graduate
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Gwizdz, Josi. "Corporate Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change in the Logistics and Transportation Industry." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-135947.
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The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.
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Gwizdz, Josi. "Corporate Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change in the Logistics and Transportation Industry." Technische Universität Dresden, 2012. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A27692.
Full textAbstract:
The thesis aims at corporate adaptation to climate change impacts in the logistics and transportation industry, especially for the model region Dresden. The paper employs two analyses. The first part deals with a review of the current literature within the topic. 20 references are identified and analysed with a data extraction form. More general adaptation measures are identified in the current literature which can be implemented in the corporate strategy. Crucial effects on company’s operation and its profit have flooding and sea level rise. In comparison adaptation measures, which are identified within five interviews of transportation providers in the model region Dresden, are of technological nature. The interviewed companies adapted significantly to weather extremes in the past. It is identified that heavy precipitation like rain and snow lead to crucial negative impacts to their operations which cause lost profit and customer dissatisfaction in long periods of time. On the other hand these weather conditions may have positive effects in short periods of time. Region-specific analyses in climate change impacts and the implementation of potential adaptation measures for logistics and transportation companies is still in a stage of infancy. Further research is needed on more region-specific analyses and on logistics companies in the model region Dresden as only five of them analysed in this thesis.
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Onyekuru, NwaJesus Anthony. "Assessing climate change impacts and indigenous adaptation strategies on forest resource use in Nigeria." Thesis, University of York, 2014. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9298/.
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The impacts of current global climate change vary, depending on the sector and the level of system’s resilience. This study analysed the impact and adaptation mechanisms to climate change among forest communities in Nigeria using a survey of 400 households from five ecological regions of Nigeria. Data were analysed using Ricardian, logit and cost benefit analysis models. Results show that the level of forest dependence varies from 14% in the Sudan savannah to over 47% in the mangrove. Over 88% of respondents have perceived climate change impact, with 84% of respondents noticing changes in forest resource use; these changes were less prevalent in the montane forest where over 65% have noticed no changes. The Ricardian analysis showed that the age and level of education of the household heads significantly and positively impacted on net revenue that the household derived from the forest. Predicted average annual household income from the forest was $3380. Increasing rainfall during winter and spring seasons significantly increase household net revenue by $62 and $75 respectively, and reduces income by $42 and $18 in summer and autumn respectively. A 1oC increase in temperature will lead to a very negligible annual loss in household net income from the forest in all zones. The adaptation options used by the forest communities are agroforestry, erosion control, changing dates of operations, use of improved cook stove, cultural practices, irrigation and migration. The ability to notice climate change and take up adaptation strategies were positively associated with spring rainfall and winter rainfall respectively, while both were negatively associated with summer and autumn rainfall. The determinants of adaptation strategies were level of education, transportation mode, market access, detecting of climate change, household size, access to electricity, number of years of forest use, extension visits and net revenue from the forest. Primary occupation (farming) and age of the household head were negatively associated with the adoption of different adaptation options. The cost benefit analysis showed that while the use of improved cookstove had the highest net profit, turnover ratio and net present value, the use of fertilizer was the least cost effective and together with poor infrastructure were the major barriers to adaptation. Anthropogenic disturbances were shown to exacerbate land use change and forest resource loss in conjunction with climate change. The results indicate a high level of awareness among the communities around the concepts of climate change and the perceived impacts on their forest use. Furthermore, it shows the effects of the combined interactions of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on forest resource use which blurs the precision in the abstraction and attribution of impacts in Nigeria. This underscores the need for a further integrated research, combining the social and economic elements with biophysical perspectives of climate change impacts that can be useful for incorporating adaptation strategies into national development planning of not only Nigeria but many developing economies in order to build resilience among forest dependent communities.
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Karki, Sikha. "Impacts of climate change on food security among smallholder farmers in three agroecological zones of Nepal." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/397042.
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Climate change is a pervasive global issue that threatens the livelihoods and wellbeing of billions living globally. Climate change is a risk multiplier impacting all ecosystems, society, and sectors of the economy. The agriculture sector is one such sector that is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. In a country like Nepal where rainfed agriculture is a dominant occupation and a key pillar of the country’s economy, climate change brings risks and negative consequences for on-farm production, farmers' livelihoods as well as on the country’s development. The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events such as drought, and shifts in the rainfall seasonality, can cause a decline in food production and threaten the quality of food supplies, leading to reduced food security.
The rise in the global population will increase global demand for food which implies that agriculture needs to boost production and increase yields, among other things. The unprecedented risks posed by climate change potentially undermine the ability of farms and farm holders to grow adequate and quality food. The severity of these risks varies due to a range of underlying factors including low economic development, their location, existing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and institutional arrangements. While the impacts of climate change on food production as well as agricultural practices in Nepal have been documented, there is a dearth in scholarly literature that has assessed the impacts of climate change on household food security in Nepal incorporating farmers’ perspectives and in particular smallholder subsistence farmers. Furthermore, there is only modest literature that has examined geographical variations in those experiences and understandings. This PhD study aimed, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on agricultural practices and food security, with a focus on subsistence smallholder farmers in three main agro- ecological zones of Nepal known as The Mountains, Hills, and the Terai.
The study aimed to respond to the primary research question: How are Nepalese farming communities being impacted by climate change and how are they responding to ensure their continued food security? To answer this main research, question the study posed the following secondary research questions:
Q1. How is climate changing and how is it impacting subsistence agriculture?
Q2. What are the farmers experiencing and what is their understanding? a. Are there gender differences in understanding and experiencing?
Q3. What is the state of food insecurity among these farmers? a. How is it being impacted by climate change?
Q4. What adaptation strategies have been adopted by smallholder farmers to address threats to agricultural practices and food security from climate change and other pressures?
Both the qualitative and qualitative data were collected using multiple methods to address the identified research questions. Methods included a narrative literature review, systematic review, face to face interviews with farmers, individual interviews with key informants and focus groups with the women's group. Climate data on temperature between 1971-2013 and rainfall between 1967-2013 were analysed. Additionally, secondary data on crop yield from 1980 to 2016 were also analysed to gain a better empirical understanding of the relations between climate change and yield pattern and to triangulate and validate the findings from the interviews. Quantitative data on cereal crop yields and climate data were systematically tabulated and further statistically analysed using software R. This study employed the Bayesian approach to statistical modelling. Besides, this study undertook an integrated risk assessment of food insecurity using the Bayesian Belief Network model to reflect how the risk of food insecurity is influenced under two scenarios: (1) current climate conditions and (2) the influences of different adaptation strategies employed. NVivo was used for content analysis for qualitative data obtained from the key informant interview and focus group data and analysis of transcripts from farmers' structured interviews.
The findings showed that agricultural practices have undergone various changes over the past 30 years. Climate change impacts were experienced by farmers in all three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. However, the impacts varied between these zones in terms of frequency and intensity. The effect of climate change was highly pronounced in the Mountains zone followed by the Hills and the Terai. The results confirmed that rural subsistence smallholder farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture are vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Moreover, it disproportionately affects the poor farmers whose income hinges solely on agriculture and associated activities. Boosting agricultural production and empowering these smallholders is key to enhancing their food security. The experiences reported by farmers are well aligned with the trend of the climatic variables obtained from climate data analysis, highlighting the importance of perception-based survey in complementing climate research.
The study demonstrated both the climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting agricultural practices as well as household food security of these farming communities. It is, therefore, difficult to isolate the influence of any of these factors. This was supported by the findings from the risk assessment undertaken by Bayesian modelling. Based on Bayesian modelling, the smallholder farmers mainly at the Mountain zone were at the risk of food insecurity.
The measures to increase the adaptive capacity of these smallholders were found to help them manage the risk of food insecurity. Addressing the complicated and multifaceted concerns of climate change and food security needs multidisciplinary and multisectoral adaptation interventions acknowledging underlying biophysical, social, economic, geographical and environmental circumstances.
Farmers have taken some actions to adapt and reduce the worsening impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, farmers encountered several barriers in effectively adapting to climate change. This study concluded there is an urgent need for a transformative level of intervention that warrants a coordinated action and collaboration between relevant stakeholders working in this field, including governments and non-governmental organizations, to target the most vulnerable and the needy smallholder farmers addressing the constraints and pressures they face. Policy and decision-makers should work extensively and sensitively with smallholders to ensure the maintenance of their livelihood and to guarantee their food security. Combining local and scientific knowledge is needed to help direct research and tailor adaptation solutions that meet local conditions and needs.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Environment and Sc
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Zinyengere, Nkulumo. "Assessing climate change impacts and agronomic adaptation strategies for dryland crop production in southern Africa." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20846.
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Dryland farmers in southern Africa operate under harsh conditions; infertile soils, erratic rainfall regimes, sub-optimal input levels etc. Crop yields have generally been low, negatively affecting food security and livelihoods. Climate change is anticipated to aggravate these already existing challenges. In the recent past, a wide range of studies has sought to understand how climate change will affect crop production. However, there are only few detailed localised studies that focus on understanding climate change impacts and adaptation under heterogeneous conditions that dryland farmers in southern Africa operate. This study sought to understand how climate change will affect food crop production in southern Africa's drylands and to provide insight on the potential of on-farm agronomic management strategies for adaptation. The study focused on three locations representing some of the agro-ecological conditions of southern Africa i.e. Big Bend in Swaziland (low altitude, hot and dry), Mohale's Hoek in Lesotho (high altitude, cool and wet and dry), and Lilongwe in Malawi (mid altitude, wet with moderate temperatures). The study was performed largely using a climate-crop model simulation approach supported by a review of similar approaches in the region, data collected from reported agricultural experimental trials, regional experts, downscaled climate projections (using up to 9 GCMs) and surveys.
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Fabre, Julie. "Changes in the balance between water uses and availability in two Mediterranean hydrosystems : adaptation to climatic and anthropogenic changes." Thesis, Montpellier, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MONTS086/document.
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La thèse propose une approche originale pour évaluer les évolutions à moyen terme des équilibres entre usages et ressources en eau à l’échelle de bassins versants. Un cadre de modélisation intégrant les dynamiques hydro-climatiques et des activités humaines ainsi que les liens entre demandes et ressources en eau a été développé et appliqué sur deux bassins d’échelles différentes et aux usages de l’eau contrastés : l’Hérault (2500 km2, France) et l’Ebre (85000 km2, Espagne). Les écoulements naturels ont été simulés avec un modèle hydrologique conceptuel et un modèle de gestion de barrage piloté par les demandes associées et les contraintes de gestion a été implémenté. Les demandes en eau municipal, industrielle et d'irrigation ont été estimées à partir de données socio-economiques, agronomiques et climatiques. Des débits environnementaux seuils, en-dessous desquels les prélèvements sont limités, ont été pris en compte. La chaîne de modélisation a été calée et validée sous les conditions anthropiques et hydro-climatiques non-stationnaires de 40 années passées, avant d’être appliquée sous quatre combinaisons de scénarios de changements climatiques et d’usages de l’eau, permettant ainsi de différencier les impacts climatiques et anthropiques. Des simulations climatiques de l’exercice CMIP5 ont été utilisées pour générer 18 scénarios climatiques à l’horizon 2050, et un scénario tendanciel des usages de l’eau a été proposé sur la base de tendances socio-écononomiques locales. La disponibilité en eau a été comparée à la demande à travers des indicateurs de fréquence et d’intensité de satisfaction. L'impact des scénarios climatiques sur la disponibilité et la demande en eau pourrait remettre en question les allocations et débits environnementaux envisagés pour les décennies à venir. Les limitations de prélèvements pourraient devenir pus fréquentes, et la pression anthropique sur les milieux aquatiques pourrait s'intensifier. Pour évaluer le potentiel d’adaptation aux changements climatiques, une analyse de sensibilité des indicateurs aux principaux facteurs d’évolution de la demande et de la gestion de barrages a été réalisée. L’efficacité et la robustesse de mesures individuelles varient entre les bassins et selon les nœuds de demande. Un scénario d’adaptation combinant différentes mesures a ensuite été testé. Ce scénario pourrait réduire sensiblement le stress hydriquel, cependant sa robustesse vis-à-vis des incertitudes climatiques pourrait être insuffisante. Afin d'atteindre un équilibre durable entre usages et ressources en eau et de réduire la vulnerabilité des usages de l'eau, une complémentarité doit être trouvée entre des études quantitatives à l'échelle de bassins versants, comme celle menée dans cette thèse, et des études locales de la vulnérablité socio-économique et des capacités d'adaptationThis thesis proposes an original approach to assess multi-decadal changes in the balance between water use and availability in managed river basins. A modeling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for linkages between resource and demand was developed and applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model, and a demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban, industrial and agricultural water demands were estimated from socio-economic and agronomic and climatic drivers. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which water withdrawals were strictly limited. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over a past period of 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon and a trend water use scenario was built based on demographic and local socio-economic trends by the mid-21textsuperscript{st}century. Indicators comparing water supply to demand were computed. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. To assess the efficiency of potential adaptation measures under climate change scenarios, the sensitivity of water stress to variations in the main drivers of water demand and dam management was tested. The effectiveness and robustness of individual measures varied between the basins and within each basin. Finally an adaptation scenario combining different measures was tested in both basins, using the integrative modeling framework. This scenario led to encouraging results regarding the decrease of water stress. However, the adaptation strategies were shown to be insufficiently robust to climate change uncertainties. To achieve a sustainable balance between water availability and demand and reduce the vulnerability of water uses to climate change, a complementarity needs to be found between basin-scale studies of the water balance, such as the ones conducted in this thesis, and local assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity
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Weber, Marie-Christin. "How do water companies adapt to climate change impacts?: A literature review." Technische Universität Dresden, 2011. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A27688.
Full textAbstract:
The primary objective of this work was to analyse how water companies are affected by climate change and how they try to adapt to it. Therefore, a systematic literature review was being accomplished.
The work is being divided into a theoretical and a methodological part. First of all an overview of the climatic changes that are projected to occur during the next years is being given. Then, resulting impacts on the water cycle are being pointed out. Furthermore, raw water sources, water companies obtain water from are being defined as well as the treatment process. Within the methodological part the approach of a systematic literature review is being applied, which includes the selection of references as well as their evaluation.
The results of the literature review are that concerning the effects of climate change on water companies, the risks water providers might face, clearly predominate possible opportunities. Especially the deterioration of the raw water quality caused by increasing temperatures, floods as well as heavy rainfalls can be seen as a serious problem. Moreover, the most often mentioned adaptation strategies are dealing with quantitative water problems such as measures to increase storage as well as treatment capacity or leakage reductions.
All in all it can be stated that there is still uncertainty about how climate change is going to effect water companies, especially concerning water quality changes and the treatment process.
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Nunfam, Victor Fannam. "Social impacts of climate change and occupational heat stress and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2019. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/2273.
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Excessive heat exposure due to rising temperatures associated with climate change adversely affects workers’ health, safety, productivity, and psychosocial well-being in occupational settings. In the hot and tropical regions of developing countries, long hours of physically demanding work, coupled with inadequate adaptation policies to climate change, increases the occurrence of heat-related illnesses and injuries, and contributes to the loss of productive capacity, poor decision making, and other negative effects on the social well-being of workers.
Based on the theories of social impact assessment, risk assessment, adaptation and resilience planning, this study assesses the social impacts of climate change and occupational heat stress and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana, and thus fills a significant gap in the existing literature. Guided by the pragmatists’ research philosophical paradigm, this study adopted the convergent mixed methods approach by utilising data obtained from four temperature and humidity data loggers, 346 surveys of mining workers, two focus groups and three in-depth interviews. The quantitative data was processed with Microsoft Excel 2016, XLSTAT 2019, and analysed using Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) version 25 while the qualitative data was processed utilising NVivo version 11 and thematically analysed.
The findings suggest that the use of convergent mixed methods showed adequate corroboration and complementarity between the qualitative and quantitative data and helped to obtain credible data relevant for policy decisions on heat stress management, workplace health and safety, and adaptation strategies. Supervisors’ climate change risks perception was adequate, workplace heat exposure risks concerns were moderate and their views of workers’ heat stress experiences were heat-related illness and minor injuries. The differences in supervisors’ climate change risk perceptions and occupational heat stress risk experiences across job experience and adaptation strategies across educational status were significant (p<0.05). Workers’ concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks; heat-related morbidities experienced by workers; and their use of heat stress prevention measures significantly differed between Small-Scale Mining (SSM) and Large-Scale Mining (LSM) (p<0.001). The disparity in heat exposure risk factors across workers’ gender, education level, workload, work hours, physical work exertion, and proximity to heat sources was significant (p<0.05). Thermal assessments demonstrated that workers were exposed to high ambient heat conditions that raise their heat stress risk. Workers’ adaptation strategies, social protection measures, and barriers to adaptation strategies differed significantly across the type of mining activity (p<0.001).
Based on the seven publications related to the social impacts of climate change and occupational heat stress and adaptation strategies of mining workers, this study recommends that there needs to be a concerted global effort at providing adequate and effective heat exposure and adaptation policies to promote workers’ health and safety, productive capacity and psychosocial well-being; to reduce their vulnerability to heat stress, improve their adaptive capacity and resilience; and enlighten policy decisions and enforcement in the mining industry.
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Aringo, Deborah. "Climate-resilient cities: A comparative study of climate adaptationstrategies in Botkyrka and Ekerö municipalities." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-162624.
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This thesis research investigates and contributes to increased knowledge on municipalities’ approaches to climate adaptation and associated challenges that slow down or hinder climate adaptation approaches in cities. The Stockholm region has experienced climate change and impacts of severe floods, heat waves, storms, sea level rise, forest-fire outbreaks, erosion and landslides. To control the frequency and magnitude of these impacts, local authorities and administrations need to integrate mitigation and adaptation management strategies into physical plans of towns and cities. Surveys carried out in 2016 and 2017 consecutively, evaluate municipalities’ efforts in climate adaptation in different counties in Sweden. The survey report in 2017 reveals that not all municipalities are equally implementing climate adaptation in Stockholm county; and yet the impacts of climate change are to affect all municipalities regardless of size and geographical location. Therefore, to understand the state of climate change adaptation in the municipalities, the author interviewed municipal planners, engineers, environmental investigators, and climate group in Botkyrka, to collect qualitative data for analysis. Data was also gathered through qualitative document analysis to compare drivers of municipality approaches to climate adaptation in Botkyrka and Ekerö municipality. The study results show that there is a gap between Botkyrka and Ekerö municipalities’ climate adaptation work. However, much as these two municipalities are sustainably eveloping, they face a number of challenges that hamper their ability to integrate climate adaptation measure in urban physical plans in order to reduce urban vulnerabilities, and thus build sustainable and climate-resilient cities.Denna uppsatsforskning undersöker och bidrar till ökad kunskap om kommunernas strategier för klimatanpassning och associerade utmaningar som bromsar eller hindrar klimatanpassningsmetoder i städer. Stockholmsregionen har upplevt klimatförändringar och konsekvenser av allvarliga översvämningar, värmeböljor, stormar, havsnivåer, skogsbränder utbrott, erosion och jordskred. För att styra frekvensen och omfattningen av dessa effekter, behöver kommuner och förvaltningar integrera klimatanpassnings strategier för hantering av begränsnings- och anpassningsåtgärder i fysiska planer av städer. Undersökningar som genomförts under 2016 och 2017 efter varandra, utvärdera kommunernas insatser i klimatanpassning i olika län i Sverige. Undersökningsrapporten i 2017 avslöjar att inte alla kommuner genomför lika klimatanpassning i Stockholms län; och ändå effekterna av klimatförändringarna påverkar alla kommuner oberoende av storlek och geografiska läge. För att förstå tillståndet för klimatanpassning i kommunerna, intervjuade jag kommunala planerare, ingenjörer, miljömässiga utredare och klimat gruppen i Botkyrka kommun, med syftet att samla in kvalitativa data för analys. Jag samlade också data genom kvalitativ dokumentanalys för att jämföra faktorer som driver kommunernas klimatanpassningsarbete. Resultaten från studien visar att det finns en lucka mellan Botkyrka och Ekerö kommunernas klimatanpassnings arbete. Dock, även om dessa två kommuner utvecklar hållbart, står de inför ett antal utmaningar som hämmar deras förmåga att integrera klimatanpassningsåtgärder i urbana fysiska planer för att minska urbana sårbarheter, och därmed bygga hållbara och klimattåliga städer.
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Winther, Hedvig. "Climate change impacts on water resources of the Ganges : Suitable adaptation options for agriculture in the Indian-Himalayan region." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210761.
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Climate change is affecting several environmental factors and together with socio-economic changes put high pressure on water resources. Climate change manifest itself through increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns and intensities, with knock-on effects on hydrologically-relevant parameters such as water flows, evapotranspiration rates, glacial melt etcetera, all of which have already been observed in the recent past and are predicted to continue in the future. India has the world’s second largest population. The majority of the population live in rural areas and are dependent on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishery. The Indian-Himalayan region supplies 600 million people with water, thus future climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle in the area are of great interest and concern. In order to cope with these predicted impacts, there is a need to adapt to the changing climate. This study combines data analyses from a hydro-climatic modelling campaign (carried out externally to this thesis), a literature review on climate change effects on agriculture and opportunities to adapt to these effects and participatory methods bringing stakeholders and scientists together in order to co-create adaptation options that are suitable to minimise short- and long-term climate change impacts on the water flows of the Ganges and hence agriculture in the region. The study concentrates on two districts in the Indo-Gangetic Plain that are characterised by their high dependency on the farming sector: Uttarkashi (upstream Ganges, Uttarakhand) and Patna (downstream Ganges, Bihar). The analysis of hydro-climatic data based on a modelling campaign focussed on three climate variables that are of significance for agriculture: precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. To characterise future climates, four climate change projections based on IPCC’s representative concentrations pathways (RCPs) have been chosen: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. The impacts of these scenarios on the above listed three climate variables are analysed over three time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, with a special focus on the monsoon months from June to October, as this is the main crop (rice) growing season. The results from the hydro-climatic modelling indicate that the maximum, minimum, and average temperature will be increasing over the next century in both districts. An increase in evapotranspiration can be seen for both districts, with a few exceptions for RCP scenarios 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 in April and May in Patna, and for all RCP scenarios in April, May and June in Uttarkashi. An increase in maximum and average precipitation can be seen for most RCP scenarios and future time periods (e.g. of exceptions in average precipitation: RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in June and July in the period 2011-2040) during the monsoon period in Patna. Similarly, in Uttarkashi maximum and average precipitation increases for all three time periods and RCP scenarios during the monsoon months of September and August (only for RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5). For the remaining months, the precipitation patterns show great variability for all scenarios and both regions. The literature review resulted in a table of adaptation options, where nine out of 63 were considered as transformational adaptation, and enabled identification of possible climate change impacts on agriculture in the two districts. The minimum temperature could result in more severe and intense hailstorms in the future for both districts. The increase in temperature could lead to a prolonged growing season in Uttarkashi, whilst the increase in average and maximum temperature in Patna could lead to heat-stress for the crops. Furthermore, the increase in average and maximum precipitation could lead to more severe and intense natural disasters e.g. landslides in Uttarkashi and floods in Patna. Moreover, the increase in average evapotranspiration combined with the decrease in average precipitation during some months could lead to an increasing need of irrigation. Two workshops were held in the region with the aim to bring together researchers and stakeholders (e.g. famers) in order to jointly discuss 1) the suitability of hydrological modelling data for preparing the agriculture sector to a changing climate, and 2) suggest suitable adaptation options based on researchers’ and stakeholders’ knowledge and experience. Information from the first workshop was obtained by a workshop report, whilst information from the second workshop was obtained from the author’s own participation. The result from the workshop showed that the farmers had several suggestions of suitable adaptation options e.g. implementation of irrigation system and improved access to credit. It also showed that the farmers already adapted to climate change e.g. usage of short- and long duration variations of rice and sowing date adjustment. The combination of these results informed the suggestions for adaptation options for the two districts, namely the development of disaster reduction plans and early warning systems for weather extremes, as well as a diversification of agriculture and more generally livelihoods. In addition, indirect adaptation measures suggested for both districts included insurance schemes against yield failure, improved access to credit schemes, and right/fair market prices. Specific measures for each district were also suggested e.g. heat-tolerant crops in Patna and implementation or irrigation systems in Uttarkashi.Klimatförändringarna påverkar åtskilliga miljöfaktorer och tillsammans med socioekonomiska förändringar sätter de stort tryck på vattenresurser. Klimatförändringar manifesterar sig i stigande temperaturer och ändrade nederbördsmönster och nederbördsintensitet, med påföljande effekter på hydrologiskt relevanta parametrar så som vattenflöden, evapotranspirationsvärden, smältande glaciärer etcetera, vilka alla är effekter som redan observerats och är förutspådda att fortsätta under innevarande århundrande. Befolkningen i Indien är näst störst i världen. Större delen av befolkningen i Indien bor på landsbygden och är beroende av klimatkänsliga sektorer så som jordbruk, fiske och skogsbruk. Indiska Himalaya förser 600 miljoner människor med vatten, framtida effekter på den hydrologiska cykeln, orsakade av klimatförändringarna i området, är därför av största intresse. För att kunna hantera de framtida effekterna orsakade av klimatförändringarna är det viktigt att implementera klimatanpassningsstrategier. Den här studien kombinerar data analyser från en hydro-klimatisk modelleringskampanj (som är genomförd externt till det här arbetet), litteraturstudie över effekter på jordbruk orsakade av klimatförändringar och möjligheter att anpassa sig till dessa förändringar, samt involverar preferenser och kunskaper från intressenter inom det aktuella området för att kunna identifiera lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier. Studien har ett huvudfokus på klimatanpassning för jordbruksområden i två distrikt i Indien: Uttarkashi (uppströms Ganges, Uttarakhand) och Patna (nedströms Ganges, Bihar). Analysen av hydro-klimatisk data, baserad på en modelleringskampanj, fokuserar på tre klimatvariabler som är av betydelse för jordbrukssektor: nederbörd, temperatur, och evapotranspiration. För att kunna karakterisera framtida klimat har IPCCs fyra representativa koncentrationsvägar (RCPs) tagits hänsyn till: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, och RCP 8.5. Effekterna av dessa scenarier på de tre ovan listade klimatvariablerna är analyserade över tre framtida tidsperioder: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, med ett speciellt fokus på monsunperioden från juni till oktober. Resultatet från analysen av hydro-klimatisk data indikerar en ökning under århundrandet i minimal, maximal, och genomsnittlig temperatur i båda distrikten. En ökning i evapotranspiration för båda distrikten kunde också identifieras, med några få undantag för RCP 2.6, 6.0 och 8.5 i april och maj i Patna, samt för alla RCP scenarier i april, maj och juni för Uttarkashi. Trender i nederbörd visar en ökning i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd för nästan alla scenarier under monsunperioden i Patna (exempel på scenarier där den genomsnittliga nederbörden inte ökar är RCP 4.5 och 8.5 i juni och juli under perioden 2011-2040). En ökning i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd identifierades i september för alla RCP scenarier och framtidsperioder, samt i augusti för RCP 2.6 och 8.5 i Uttarkashi. Kvarvarande månader visar på stor variabilitet i nederbörd för alla scenarier i båda distrikten. Litteraturstudien resulterade i en tabell med klimatanpassningsstrategier, där nio av 63 ansågs vara transformerande, samt identifierade möjliga effekter på jordbruket i de två distrikten orsakade av klimatförändringar. Ökningen i minimal temperatur kan leda till mer allvarliga och intensifierade hagelstormar i framtiden. Temperaturökningen kan i Uttarkashi leda till förlängd odlingssäsong medan ökningen i genomsnittlig och maximal temperatur kan leda till värmestress på grödorna i Patna. Vidare gäller att ökningen i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd kan leda till mer allvarliga naturkatastrofer i framtiden som exempelvis jordskred i Uttarkashi och översvämningar i Patna. Ökningen i evapotranspiration kombinerat med minskningen i genomsnittlig nederbörd under vissa månader skulle kunna leda till ett ökat bevattningsbehov. Två ”worskhops” anordnades i regionen med målet att sammanföra forskare och intressenter (exempelvis bönder) för att gemensamt diskutera 1) lämpligheten av användandet av hydrologiskt modellerad data för att förbereda jordbruket på klimatförändringar, och 2) föreslå lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier baserat på forskarnas och intressenternas kunskap och erfarenheter. Informationen från den första workshopen erhölls genom en workshoprapport, medan informationen i den andra workshopen erhölls genom författarens eget deltagande i workshopen. Resultatet från workshopen visade på att bönderna hade flertalet egna föreslag vad gäller lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier så som exempelvis implementerande av bevattningssystem och ökade kreditmöjligheter. Bönderna hade även börjat anpassa sig till klimatförändringar genom exempelvis ha lång- och korttids variationer av ris samt att de hade flyttat på datumet för sådden. Kombinationen av hydro-klimatisk data, litteratur och intressentpreferenser och kunskap möjliggjorde förslag på klimatanpassningsstrategier i de två distrikten. Strategier för att reducera skador på grödor och jordbruksmark orsakade av extrema händelser, varningssystem som varnar i ett tidigt skede, och diversifiering av försörjning är direkta klimatanpassningsstrategier som identifierades för båda distrikten. Försäkringslösningar, ökade kreditmöjligheter, och ett rättvist marknadspris var indirekta anpassningsstrategier som identifierats för båda distrikten. Även specifika anpassningsstrategier för respektive distrikt har identifierats, där exempelvis värme-tåliga grödor identifierades som viktigt för Patna och implementering av bevattningssystem identifierades som extra viktigt för Uttarkashi.
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Jayasekera, Dumindu Lasitha. "Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Corresponding Adaptation Strategies of the Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos." DigitalCommons@USU, 2013. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/2031.
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The Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) in Laos has received attention of foreign investors due to high hydropower development potential and low per capita electricity consumption. The NNRB is rapidly developing due to its hydropower generation potentials while water demands will increase for agricultural and domestic purposes due to population increase and land-use changes. Water availability conditions will be affected with the increasing water demand and climate change may worsen the water availability conditions. Climate is often defined as the weather averaged over time whereas weather describes atmospheric conditions at a particular place and time in terms of air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and rainfall. On regional scale, climate change impact assessment is crucial for water resource planning, management and decision making. First part of this study, reliable estimation of climatic variables is performed under climate change. Second part assess the changes in water resources regimes and sustainability conditions of agricultural and domestic water user sectors under climate change for “do nothing” option that are critical for strategic planning and to minimize the negative impacts. Third part assesses the long-term climate change trends, water allocation challenges and appropriate adaptation measures to minimize watershed impacts to achieve sustainability and long-term management goals. The major findings of this study shows (1) wetter and warmer climates especially in the latter part of the century indicating less water availability, (2) sustainability in meeting the water demands for agriculture and domestic use is affected under “do nothing” option, and (3) watershed scale adaptation measures improve the (1) hydropower generation, (2) sustainability conditions in agricultural and domestic water user sectors, and (3) flow regimes.
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Yang, Boxuan. "Estimating the Impacts of Climate Changes on Agricultural Productivities in Thailand, Using Simulation Models." Kyoto University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/235992.
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Islam, Md Monirul. "Vulnerability and adaptation of fishing communities to the impacts of climate variability and change : insights from coastal Bangladesh." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2013. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/5321/.
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Climate variability and change are predicted to impact on coastal and marine smallscale fisheries and dependent communities. They have been adapted to the normal range of climate variability and its impacts, but additional adaptation will be required to address the increased impacts of climate change. Migration is regarded as one strategy to adapt to these impacts but debates surround its successfulness. Fishing communities can adapt in many ways and migration is one example. However, limits and barriers can prevent adaptation being successful or reduce vulnerability. Studies on vulnerability, adaptation and limits and barriers to adaptation are therefore preconditions for the fishing communities to develop effective adaptation strategies to face climate variability and change. Despite considerable studies on the impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and fish stocks, the macro scale fishery-dependent economies and their people, and on vulnerability and adaptation in agricultural communities, there has been insufficient examination of the vulnerability and adaptation of small-scale fishing communities to climate variability and change. This thesis therefore assesses the vulnerability and adaptation to the impacts of climate variability and change, in three small-scale coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh. Using a mixed method approach, particular focus is given to the assessment of livelihood vulnerability, the investigation of the outcomes of climate induced migration, and the exploration of limits of and barriers to adaptation. Results highlight that the level of livelihood vulnerability not only differs between communities but also between different household groups within a community, depending on their level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure to floods and cyclones; sensitivity (such as dependence on small-scale marine fisheries for livelihoods); and lack of adaptive capacity in terms of physical, natural and financial capital and diverse livelihood strategies construe livelihood vulnerability in different ways depending on the context. Results show that the most exposed community is not necessarily the most sensitive or least able to adapt because livelihood vulnerability is a result of combined but unequal influences of biophysical and socio-economic characteristics of communities and households. Within a fishing community, where households are similarly exposed, higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity combine to create higher vulnerability. Migration may be a viable strategy to respond to climate variability and change. Results show that migration has generated several positive outcomes for households that resettled. The resettled households are now less exposed to floods, sea level rise and land erosion than those who stayed behind. They have also more livelihood assets and better access to them. They enjoy higher incomes, better health, better access to water supply, health and educational services, technology and markets than the households who remained in their original settlement. The thesis also establishes that fishing communities face multiple limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones, however. Limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea, such as higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecasts, poor radio signals, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavourable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. Overall, this thesis contributes empirical evidence to current debates in the literature on climate change by enhancing an understanding of the characteristics and determinants of livelihood vulnerability, migration as an adaptation strategy and limits and barriers to the adaptation of fishing communities to climate variability and change. The findings of this thesis form the basis for further detailed research into the vulnerability and adaptation of small-scale fishing communities to climate variability and change. Based on the above findings, this thesis also provides some suggestions for reducing vulnerability and for developing effective adaptation strategies.
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Bulathsinhalage, Buddika Manori Bulathsinhala. "Perception, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts: A Case Study of Coastal Livelihoods in Chilaw, Sri Lanka." Thesis, Curtin University, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/88573.
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The study investigates the process of adaptation in view of livelihood vulnerability of coastal communities encompassing their perceptions of climate change impacts, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Despite direct exposure, climate change is often an abstract and distant concept for coastal communities. Being the first in-depth empirical study conducted in Sri Lanka, it introduces the tools of “livelihood vulnerability index” and “perception index” to assist all levels of stakeholders to combat climate change effects.
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Karim, Rezaul. "Sustainability views of Adaptation measures to the potential impacts due to climate change in the Coastal zone of Bangladesh." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-58627.
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The thesis work has studied mainly autonomous adaptation measures used by local communities against natural hazards. In course of time the climate change will make these hazards frequent and severe challenging peoples capacity to cope with them. The work is conducted as a case study in nine coastal agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh. Coastal zones have socio-economical potential but are at the same time vulnerable to destructive effects of climate change in agriculture, human settlements, health, ecosystem and security. In collaboration with the Department of Environmental sciences in Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh, adaptation measures practiced at study areas have been gathered and then evaluated using a rated set of eleven criteria which has been derived from principles of sustainable adaptation. As a result of this study several adaptation measures show high sustainability, some medium but most of them with a low sustainability in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and implementation ability. The conclusion is to enhance local adaptive capacity in terms of its hazards context and to modify adaptation measures to be more sustainable.
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Omunga, Philip M. "Assessing plans that support urban adaptation to changing climate and extreme events across spatial scales." Diss., Kansas State University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18802.
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Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Environmental Design and Planning Program
Lee R. Skabelund
Despite the growing number of urban adaptation planning initiatives to climate change hazards, there exist significant barriers related to implementation uncertainties that hinder translation of adaptation plans into actions, resulting in a widely recognized ‘planning-implementation gap’ across scales and regions. Bridging the planning-implementation gap will require overcoming implementation uncertainties by better understanding the relationships between the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and emerging adaptation options across spatial scales. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model published by Rounsevell, Dawson, and Harrison in 2010 provided a robust framework for identifying the primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives and the emerging adaptation options related to risk of changing climate and flooding events in the urban context. Drawing on evidence from the systematic review of 121 adaptation planning case studies across North America, this research derived qualitative and quantitative data, which was subsequently analyzed using binary logistic regression to generate objective and generalizable findings. The findings of binary logistic regression models suggest that the choice of specific adaptation options (namely enhancing adaptive capacity; management and conservation; and improving urban infrastructure, planning, and development) may be predicted based on the assessment of primary factors driving adaptation planning initiatives (namely, anticipation of economic benefits; perceived threats to management and conservation of urban natural resources; support of human and social systems; and improvement of policy and regulations) in relation to the risk of changing climate and urban flooding events. This does not imply that other primary factors (namely information and knowledge; perceived funding and economic opportunities; evidence of climate change effects; and general concerns) have no or insignificant relationships with the selection of adaptation options, only that the review did not find evidence to support such claims. These study findings may offer useful guidance to the design and further development of planning and decision support tools that could be used for assessment of adaptation plans and selection of robust adaptation options that take account of uncertainties surrounding implementation of effective climate adaptation actions. Study findings can also inform evidence-based policy and investment decision making, especially in regions where urban adaptation plans are weak or absent.
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Brooke, Cassandra. "Climate change, vulnerability and conservation in Costa Rica : an investigation of impacts, adaptive environmental management and national adaptation networks." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.270112.
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Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani. "Economic impacts of climate change on perennial plantation tree crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka." Thesis, Griffith University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/377583.
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Agriculture is one sector of the economy which is highly vulnerable to climate change because of the natural relationship between environment, particularly temperature and water availability, and agricultural productivity. Changing climate is increasingly affecting high-value perennial plantation crops such as tea, rubber, coconut, palm oil, and coffee which generate significant export revenues and provide a major source of employment for rural populations in developing countries. Many studies in the literature have focused on climate change impacts on major annual crops; however, to date, there have been very few assessments of the economic impacts of climate change on perennial plantation agriculture. This thesis therefore seeks to estimate the impacts of climate change on two important aspects of plantation agriculture - crop production and labour demand - for the case of the tea plantation sector in Sri Lanka, as an example of a high-value perennial plantation crop in a developing country. The thesis also aims to identify enablers and barriers of adaptation to climate change for this sector of Sri Lanka’s economy.
The impacts of climate change on production in Sri Lanka’s tea plantations are studied at estate-level (the primary decision making production unit) across all of the country’s tea growing regions using monthly resolution primary data for the period 2000-2014. The study employs a novel two-stage panel data approach to analyse weather and climate change effects on tea production and then to estimate production impacts for the short-, medium- and long-term future under three different global emissions scenarios. These analyses indicate that a hotter and wetter climate will have a detrimental effect on production. In high, medium and low emissions futures, the predictions show a negative proportional impact on production from increased rainfall and increased average temperature. On average across the data sample, a 12% decline in annual tea production is predicted under a high emissions scenario by 2050.
The impacts of climate change on labour demand in tea plantations in Sri Lanka are investigated by implementing a panel structural model of profit maximisation based on a normalised quadratic functional form. The analysis uses historical primary data on estate profits, input prices and output prices, together with monsoonal rainfall, temperature and wet days for years between 2002-2014 to quantify climate impacts on estates’ demand for labour. Anticipated changes in rainfall are predicted to reduce annual labour demand by 2.6% across the tea plantation sector. This could have considerable social and welfare implications, particularly for the Indian Tamil women who comprise the majority of the sector’s workforce.
Plantation agriculture is likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change because of its reliance on rain-fed production, long economic life span and the inability to easily switch crops due to high upfront capital costs. These distinct differences between annual and perennial agriculture, and the important role which plantation cropping plays in developing world agriculture, suggest that it is important to identify factors which affect choice of climate adaptation options in perennial crop production. Comprehensive knowledge of available adaptation options is of utmost importance if Sri Lanka’s tea estate managers are to counteract production losses from climate change and maintain their competitiveness in the international market. This is also vital for efficient and effective channeling of society’s resources to address the consequences of climate change. Employing data derived from face-to-face interviews with 50 tea estate managers in Sri Lanka, this study examines factors affecting choice of preferred adaptation options, barriers to adaptation and associated policy implications for tea production in Sri Lanka, as an example of a perennial tree crop system in a developing country.
Tea estate managers are already adapting to a changing climate; however, particular adaptation methods are only adopted in some situations and locations. Multinomial logit analysis of data from estate manager interviews indicates that availability of information on climate change, company size, tea growing elevation, and observed increases in temperature and rainfall are key factors influencing the choice of preferred adaptation option. Analysis also finds that barriers such as a lack capital, inadequate access to near-term and medium-term climate knowledge, and poor governmental and institutional support may prevent estate managers from experimenting with new adaptation options. Policies should, therefore, be aimed at promoting new adaptation options through information exchange between stakeholders and integrating climate change adaptation with Sri Lanka’s national sustainable developmental goals. The primary message of the adaptation analysis in this study is that governmental and institutional support and involvement are critical requirements for facilitating effective adaptation.
Findings from the thesis will help inform decision makers of the likely impacts of climate change on plantation cropping systems, and provide insights into barriers to adaptation and potential policy responses to improve the effectiveness of adaptation.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Environment and Sc
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Dhakal, Krishna Prasad. "CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON URBAN STORMWATER SYSTEM AND USE OF GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ADAPTATION: AN INVESTIGATION ON TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND GOVERNANCE." OpenSIUC, 2017. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/1479.
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The world is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate, and cities are dominantly and increasingly becoming hubs for agglomerations of human population and economic activities, as well as major sources of environmental problems. Accordingly, humanity′s pursuit of global sustainability is becoming increasingly reliant on urban sustainability. Unfortunately, the traditional approaches of urbanization and urban stormwater management are inappropriate from the sustainability standpoint. By removing vegetation and topsoil and creating impervious structures, urbanization destroys natural biodiversity and hydrological processes. As a result, urban societies are disconnected from nature and deprived of ecosystem services including flood control, fresh air, clean water, and natural beauty. Due to disrupted hydrology, an urban landscape transforms most rainwater into stormwater runoff which is conveyed off the site through a system of curb-gutter-pipe, called gray infrastructure. While gray infrastructure efficiently mitigates the problem of flash floods in urban areas, it results in multiple other adverse environmental consequences such as loss of freshwater from urban landscapes, transfer of pollutants to receiving waters, and an increased potential of downstream flooding. Green infrastructure (GI) is regarded as a sound alternative that manages stormwater by revitalizing the natural processes of soil, water, and vegetation, and restoring ecosystem structures and functions. Thus, the approach re–establishes the lost socio–ecological connectivity and regenerates ecosystem services. However, despite being inevitably important for urban sustainability, and despite being the object of unrelenting expert advocacy for more than two decades, the approach is yet to become a mainstream practice. To widely implement GI, cities need to address two critical challenges. First, urban stormwater managers and decision makers should be ensured that the approach can adequately and reliably manage stormwater. In the time when flooding problems are rising due to climate change, this concern has become more prominent. Second, if there exist any other barriers, they should be replaced with strategies that help expedite the use of GI. This multidisciplinary research dealt with these two challenges. The study consisted of two major parts. In the first part, a computer model was developed for a combined sewer system of St. Louis, a city in the US state of Missouri, using U.S. EPA SWMM. Simulations for historical (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) 50-yr 3-hr rainfall scenarios were then run on the model with and without GI. The simulation results showed a significant impact of increased precipitation on the system, which was considerably reduced after adding select GI measures to the modeled system. The following 4 types of GI were used: bio–retention cell, permeable pavement, green roof, and rain barrel. In the second part, a survey of relevant policies and governance mechanisms of eleven U.S. cities was conducted to identify potential barriers to GI and determine strategies to address them. The study also included the assessment of relevant city, state, and federal policies and governance structures. A total of 29 barriers were identified, which were grouped into 5 categories. Most of the identified barriers stem from cognitive barriers and socio–institutional arrangements. A total of 33 policies, also grouped into 5 groups, were determined to address the barriers. The investigation on governance revealed that current governance is highly technocratic and centralized, and hence has less opportunity for public involvement. Therefore, it is inherently inappropriate for GI, which requires extensive public involvement. This dissertation proposes a two–tier governance model suitable for implementing GI.
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Kusi, Joseph, and Ying Li. "Climate Change Impacts: Heat-Related Mortality Projections and Population Adaptive Responses in United States." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2015. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/26.
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We miss summer time during winter especially when it snows heavily resulting in cancelation of classes but we turn to ignore high temperature and its associated health impacts during summer. Several studies have shown that high temperatures during summer are associated with morbidity and mortality in many cities in the United States over the past decade. Gradual increase in temperature over the past years raises public health concerns about the impacts of heat on human health in future and the role of adaptation. Our study aimed at assessing future heat-related mortality due to climate change in the United States. We hypothesized that incidence of premature death will increase with future temperature rise and population adaptation will reduce the mortality rate. We reviewed research articles on temperature-related premature death. The literature search was limited to studies conducted in United States and seven studies which demonstrated positive association between temperature and premature death were selected for this study. We predicted future high temperature-related mortality using BenMap benefit model designed to estimate 2015 Appalachian Student Research Forum Page 111 air pollution impacts on public health. Based on the selected studies, BenMap model projected 2020-2050 temperature scenario using modeled daily mean apparent temperature to estimate future heat-related mortality. Our results showed that high temperatures would cause an increase in heat-related mortality and adaptation would minimize the effects of climate change as people get used to high temperatures. The outcome of our study confirms the positive association between high temperature and mortality which emphasizes the need for policy makers to take appropriate actions such as greenhouse gas emission reduction to protect public health.
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Abid, Muhammad Verfasser], and Jürgen [Akademischer Betreuer] [Scheffran. "Climate change Impacts and Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector of Pakistan- Socioeconomic and Geographical Dimensions / Muhammad Abid ; Betreuer: Jürgen Scheffran." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1124591249/34.
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Saemian, Sina. "ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON TEHRAN WATER SUPPLY IN 2021 : AN APPLICATION OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS) TO COMPARE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-193998.
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In this thesis, the decision analysis process of investigating the best optimal strategy for Tehran water management in 2021 is described. Such process is normally divided into four steps including: structuring the problem; identifying feasible strategies, their impact and uncertainty; quantifying preferences; and evaluation of countermeasures and sensitivity analysis. Here, in order to structure the problem, the characteristics of Tehran with respect to water issues and its history of water management are reviewed. The state of surface waters and ground waters and a description of Tehran plan for waste water treatment are given, the most significant constraints of Tehran water sector are classified and the challenges of climate change and variability are explained. The feasible adaptation strategies are designed subsequently based on that classification, data extracted from a survey and a number of interviews with water officials and managers and ordinary citizens in Tehran. Each strategy contains a series of separate measures with different weights. The phase of quantifying preferences and elucidating utility functions is conducted based on the data available from previous studies and also the current survey. The measures include: installing water saving devices, awareness raising to change citizens’ water consumption pattern, adding new sources of surface water, investing on waste water utilization, migration control and repairing water distribution network.Different combinations of these measures provide different possibilities for formulating adaptation strategies. We compare two more discussed adaptation strategies of the spectrum of strategies; one is inclined toward exploiting more water resources while the other one is more focused on demand management. The former is mainly supported by water officials and the latter advocated by water experts we interviewed. The criteria of comparison are social acceptability, economic feasibility, time-efficiency and environmental tenability. By considering the uncertainty attributed to the criteria weights, the WEB-HIPRE DSS analysis shows that the demand-oriented strategy is the optimal one in most cases, however, if time-efficiency and/or economic feasibility gain very high significance, the strategy of water officials wins over that of experts.
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Speak, Andrew Francis. "Quantification of the environmental impacts of urban green roofs." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/quantification-of-the-environmental-impacts-of-urban-green-roofs(6dc863d5-53bd-462b-b37f-37faa9ae3db0).html.
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Urban populations worldwide are expanding rapidly and consequently a large number of people are becoming exposed to hazards inherent in cites. Phenomena such as the urban heat island can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves, and land surface sealing can lead to flash flooding. Cities are also the sites of enhanced air and water pollution from non-point sources such as concentrated motor vehicle use. Climate change predictions for the UK include increased winter precipitation and an increase in frequency of summer heatwaves. This will put further pressure on urban residents and infrastructure. Roof greening can be used within climate change adaptation schemes because green roofs have a range of environmental benefits which can help urban infrastructure become more sustainable. This thesis empirically quantifies several of these benefits, and the processes influencing them, by monitoring real green roofs in Manchester. A number of novel discoveries were made. Green roofs act as passive filters of airborne particulate matter. 0.21 tonnes of PM10 (2.3% of the inputs) could be removed from Manchester city centre in a maximum extensive green roof scenario. Species and site differences in particle capture were exhibited and related to morphology and proximity to sources respectively. An intensive green roof was able to lower the monthly median overlying air temperature at 300 mm by up to 1.06 oC. A combination of drought and mismanagement caused damage to the vegetation on one of the green roofs, with a subsequent reduction in the cooling effect. Daytime air temperatures were higher than over an adjacent bare roof for a larger proportion of the day than over the undamaged roof, and lower cooling was observed at night. A site-specific methodology was devised to monitor the rainwater runoff from an intensive green roof and an adjacent bare roof. Average runoff retention of 65.7% was observed on the green roof, compared to 33.6% on the bare roof. Season and rainfall amount had significant impacts on retention, however, many other explanatory variables such as Antecedent Dry Weather Period (ADWP) and peak rainfall intensity had no demonstrable, significant impact. Intensive roof construction on 10% of the rooftops in Manchester city centre would increase annual rainfall retention by 2.3%. The runoff was characterised with regards to heavy metals and nutrients. Nutrient levels were found to be not a significant problem for water quality, however, Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) values for protection of freshwater were exceeded for concentrations of Cu, Pb and Zn. High metal concentrations within the sediments may be acting as sources of pollution, particularly in the case of Pb. The age of the green roof means that past atmospheric deposition of Pb could be contributing to the runoff quality. The multi-benefit aspect of green roofs is discussed in the light of the results of this thesis and recommendations made for policy makers and the green roof construction industry.
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Savage, Amy. "A qualitative exploration of the impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and diet-related non-communicable diseases in Vanuatu." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2021. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/214101/1/Amy_Savage_Thesis.pdf.
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This thesis explores the impacts of climate change on food, nutrition, and health in the island nation of Vanuatu. It demonstrated that climate change exacerbates existing food and nutrition insecurities and promotes dietary trends towards nutrient-poor, energy-dense imported foods and increased risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Climate change impacts beyond physical health were evident, such as threats to food sovereignty, traditional foodways and practices, culture, and spirituality. This research strengthens the broader call for ambitious climate action by industrialised nations to drastically reduce emissions and increase and transform the support for locally-led adaptation.
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Munoz-Marquez, Trujillo Rafael Arturo. "Future climate change impacts on the boreal forest in northwestern Ontario. Implications for the forestry sector and the local community." Thesis, University of Waterloo, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/1002.
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A large body of research has documented evidence of climate change impact already occurring on different systems on earth, future impacts can be expected. Accordingly, research is urgently needed to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in order to contribute to better landscape planning and management. This thesis investigates how climate change affects landscape change, and how to use this understanding in the analysis of land-use and landscape planning and management to adapt to climate change impacts. In particular, this study examines how climate change may impact a managed forest in terms of timber availability, and the regional community that relies on it for its survival. I hypothesized that the Boreal forest in north western Ontario will change in the short term (i. e. 60 years) in species composition and will produce less available timber as a result of human-induced climate change as modeled by different General Circulation Models plus harvesting, compared to a baseline climate. The study objectives were (a) to evaluate the degree of change in land cover (species composition) under forest harvesting and various climate change scenarios; (b) to analyze timber availability under different climate change scenarios, and harvesting; (c) to describe possible scenarios of land cover change as a result of climate change impact and harvesting to assist in policy-making related to land-use and landscape planning; and (d) to identify possible sources of both land-use conflicts and synergies as a result of changes in landscape composition caused by climate change.
The study area was the Dog-River Matawin forest in north western Ontario (? 8 x 104 ha). It is currently under harvesting. I used the Boreal Forest Landscape Dynamic Simulator (BFOLDS) fire model to simulate landscape change under different climate change scenarios (CCSRNIES A21, CGCM2 A22), which were then compared to simulations under a baseline climate scenario (1961-1990). I also developed an algorithm for the geographic information systems Arc View©, that selected useful stands, and simulated harvesting and regeneration rules after logging, processes not currently included in BFOLDS. The studied period covered 60 years to analyze impacts in the medium term in the landscape change.
Results obtained were the following. (1) There will be a shortage in timber availability under all scenarios including the baseline. The impacts of climate change will cause a deficit in timber availability much earlier under a warmer scenario with respect to the baseline. The combined impact of climate change and harvesting could diminish timber availability up to 35% compared to the baseline by year 2040 under the CCSRNIES A21 scenario mainly due to an increase in fires. Deficits will occur 10 years before in the same scenario compared to the baseline (by year 2035). (2) In both scenarios and the baseline, there will be a younger forest. In 60 years, there will not be mature forest to support ecological, social and economic processes, as the forest will only have young stands. (3) Results obtained indicated that species composition will not change importantly among the scenarios of climate change and the baseline every decade, but there will be a change in dominance along the 60 years of the simulation under each scenario including the baseline. Softwood increased in dominance and hardwood decreased in all scenarios.
The period length used in the simulation of 60 years appeared to be too short to reveal conspicuous changes in species composition. Increases observed in softwood over hardwood related to the increase in fires which promoted the establishment of species such as jack pine as well as the application of regeneration rules after logging. This finding did not agree with the hypothesis. Results of timber availability were consistent with what I expected. Warmest climate change scenarios (CCSRNIES A21) impacted both the amount of timber available (less availability every ten years) from the beginning of the simulation and the time when deficits occurred.
There are important economic, social and environmental implications of the results of this study, namely a future forest that would be young and would supply much less timber. For the forestry industry, production goals would be hindered in the medium term, falling short of industry demands. For a society that depends heavily upon the forest to survive, declining production can imply unemployment, thus affecting the welfare of the community. For the environment, such a young, fragmented forest could be unable to sustain important key species and ecological processes, leading to a loss of biodiversity, Land-use and landscape planning should be used to regulate how the land is used to minimize climate change impact. They should be further used as adaptation tools, to help in ameliorate those climate change impacts that do occur.
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Nassopoulos, Hypatie. "Les impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eaux en Méditerranée." Thesis, Paris Est, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PEST1045/document.
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Le changement climatique pourrait avoir des conséquences importantes pour les ressources en eaux et les infrastructures hydrauliques. Le dimensionnement et le fonctionnement des réservoirs devraient ainsi être modifiés en prenant en compte des scénarios de changement climatique. Un modèle de dimensionnement coût-bénéfice d'un réservoir à l'échelle du bassin versant est appliqué en Grèce afin d'évaluer le coût de l'incertitude sur le climat futur et les dommages du changement climatique. Dans cette étude de cas, le coût de l'erreur est faible, et l'adaptation n'est pas efficace. Une méthodologie sur toute la région méditerranéenne, avec une modélisation générique à l'échelle des bassins versant est ensuite développée. Les réseaux de réservoirs et les liens réservoirs-demandes sont reconstruits et le fonctionnement coordonné des réseaux de réservoirs est déterminé, en utilisant uniquement des données disponibles à l'échelle globale. La méthodologie de reconstruction des liens est appliquée à l'irrigation et validée qualitativement sur l'Algérie. Le changement de fiabilité, avec adaptation des règles opérationnelles, sous changement climatique, semble être plus influencé par les changements de ruissellement que par les changements de demande. Les changements obtenus pour le Nil, l'Europe et le Moyen Orient ne sont pas très marqués, alors que les pays d'Afrique du Nord sous influence méditerranéenne comme la Tunisie ou l'Algérie voient une diminution importante de la fiabilité des apports d'eau pour l'irrigationClimate change could affect water resources and hydraulic infrastructures seriously. Dimensioning and operation of reservoirs should therefore be modified according to climatic change scenarios. To assess the effect of climate uncertainty on reservoir volumes dimensioning using cost-benefit analysis, a model of reservoir dimensioning at the river basin scale is applied in Greece. For the case study, there is no cost of error and adaptation seems to be inefficient. A methodology at the scale of the Mediterranean region with a generic modeling at the river basin level is developed. Reservoirs networks and reservoirs-demands links are reconstructed and coordinated reservoirs networks operation is determined, using only globally available data. The link reconstruction methodology is applied on irrigation demand and validated qualitatively on Algeria. Change in reliability with adaptation of reservoir operating rules under climate change over the Mediterranean region is then assessed. Reliability changes seem to be more influenced by inflow changes than by demand changes. They are not important for the Nile basin and the European and Middle East sub-regions, while in North African countries with a more pronounced Mediterranean influence, like Tunisia or Algeria, reliability decrease can be significant
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Lyles, Frank. "Climate Change Adaptation for Southern California Groundwater Managers: A Case Study of the Six Basins Aquifer." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/pomona_theses/172.
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Groundwater has been very important to the economic development of Southern California, and will continue to be a crucial resource in the 21st century. However, Climate Change threatens to disrupt many of the physical and economic processes that control the flow of water in and out of aquifers. One groundwater manager, the Six Basins Watermaster in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino Counties, has developed a long-term planning document called the Strategic Plan that mostly fails to address the implications of Climate Change, especially for local water supplies. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of the Six Basin Watermaster’s Strategic Plan as a case-study of how groundwater managers can improve their planning assumptions to better prepare for Climate Change. It begins with a brief history of how Southern California’s environment influenced the development of the institutions that manage the Six Basins’ groundwater, then provides a physical description of the aquifer itself. The current scientific literature on Climate Change’s expected impacts on California water supplies are summarized, and the implications of these impacts for basin management are highlighted. The Strategic Plan’s projects are evaluated and critiqued in light of these insights, including a need for the Strategic Plan to: explicitly consider Climate Change in its planning assumptions, use decision-making frameworks that account for uncertainty, and prepare for more frequent droughts and floods in the future. Climate Change will have important effects on how Southern California’s groundwater is managed, and the Six Basins Strategic Plan should be revised to better account for these impacts.
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Amoako-Attah, Jospeh. "Impact of climate change on newly detached residential buildings in the UK passive mitigation and adaptation strategies." Thesis, University of West London, 2015. https://repository.uwl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1475/.
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The global increase in demand for dwelling energy and implications of changing climatic conditions on buildings require the built environment to build sustainable dwellings. The aim of this thesis is to apply passive mitigation and adaptation design strategies to newly detached residential buildings in the UK with the view to identify the key building envelop and systems parameters to secure the right balance of energy consumption and thermal comfort in dwellings. In addition, currently, acceptable robust validation process for validating space temperatures is required, as existing simulation software validation is geared toward energy consumption. The thesis further aims to apply an effective validation method to the validation of building simulation indoor temperatures. This thesis comprised of six case studies. In the first study, Bland-Altman’s method of comparison is used as a validation technique in validating space temperatures in building simulation application. This is a newly developed knowledge in civil and construction engineering research in validating thermal analysis simulation software. The relevance of this approach is due to the emergent understanding that the goodness of fit measures used in current building simulation model validation are inadequate coupled with that fact that the current simulation software validation are geared toward energy consumption. In the second study, global Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is performed on two differing weather patterns of UKCIP02 and UKCP09 weather data sets to compare their impact on future thermal performance of dwellings when use in thermal analysis simulation. The investigation seeks to ascertain the influential weather parameters which affect future dwelling indoor temperatures. The case study when compared to literature affirms the mean radiant temperature and the dry bulb air temperature as the key parameters which influence operative temperatures in dwellings. The third study, the extent of impact of climate change on key building performance parameters in a free running residential building is quantified. The key findings from this study were that the average percentage decrease for the annual energy consumption was predicted to be 2.80, 6.60 and 10.56 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time lines respectively. A similar declining trend in the case of annual natural gas consumption was 4.24, 9.98 and 16.1, and that for building emission rate and heating demand were 2.27, 5.49 and 8.72 and 7.82, 18.43 and 29.46 respectively. This decline is in consonance with the range of annual average temperature change predicted by the GCM based on the IPCC scenarios (IPCC, 2001) which generally shows an increase in temperature over stipulated timelines. The study further showed that future predicted temperature rise might necessitate the increasing use of cooling systems in residential buildings. The introduction of cooling to offset overheating risk, the trend of heating and cooling demand shows progressive increase variability with an average percentage increase of 0.53, 4.68 and 8.12 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s timelines respectively. It is therefore observed that the introduction of cooling cancels out the energy gains related to heating due to future climatic variability. The fourth, fifth and sixth case studies consider the integrated passive mitigation strategies of varying future climatic conditions, variable occupant behaviour, building orientation, adequate provision of thermal mass, advance glazing, appropriate ventilation and sufficient level of external shading which influence the potential thermal performance of dwellings and a methodology that combines thermal analysis modelling and simulation coupled with the application of CIBSE TM52 adaptive overheating criteria to investigate the thermal comfort and energy balance of dwellings and habitable conservatories. In the fourth study, the impact of four standardized construction specifications on thermal comfort on detached dwellings in London, Birmingham and Glasgow are considered. The results revealed that the prime factor for the variation of indoor temperatures is the variability of climatic patterns. In addition, London is observed to experience more risk of thermal discomfort than Birmingham and Glasgow over the time period for the analysis. The total number of zones failing 2 or 3 CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria is more in London than in Birmingham and Glasgow. It was also observed that progressive increase in thermal mass of the standardized construction specifications decrease the indoor temperature swings but increase in future operative temperatures. The day ventilation scenario was seen not to be effective way of mitigating internal heat gains in London and Birmingham. The opposite was observed in Glasgow. Night ventilation coupled with shading offered the best mitigation strategy in reducing indoor temperatures in London and Birmingham. In the fifth study, Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is used to determine the impact of standard construction specifications and UKCP09 London weather files on thermal comfort in residential buildings. Consideration of London urban heat island effect in the CIBSE TM49 weather files leading to the generation of three different weather data sets for London is analysed. The key findings of the study indicated that in the uncertainty analysis (box and whiskers plots), the medians for the day ventilation scenarios are generally higher than those of the night ventilation and further higher than the night ventilation with shading scenarios. This shows that applying mitigation scenarios of night ventilation and shading have a significant impact on reducing internal operative temperatures. In addition, the sensitivity analysis shows glazing as the most dominant parameter in enhancing thermal comfort. The sensitivity of glazing to thermal comfort increases from Gatwick, with London Weather Centre having the highest sensitivity index. This could be attributed to the urban heat island effect of central London, leading to higher internal operative temperatures. The study thus shows that more consideration should be given to glazing and internal heat gains than floor and wall construction when seeking to improve the thermal comfort of dwellings. Finally, the sixth study considers the use of passive solar design of conservatories as a viable solution of reducing energy consumption, enhancing thermal comfort and mitigating climate change. The results show that the judicious integration of the passive solar design strategies in conservatories with increasing conservatory size in elongated south facing orientation with an aspect ratio of at least 1.67 could progressively decrease annual energy consumption (by 5 kWh/m2), building emission rate (by 2.0 KgCO2/m2) and annual gas consumption (by 7 kWh/m2) when the conservatory is neither heated nor air-conditioned. Moreover, the CIBSE TM52 overheating analysis showed that the provision of optimum ventilation strategy depending on the period of the year coupled with the efficient design of awnings/overhangs and the provision of external adjustable shading on the east and west facades of the conservatory could significantly enhance the thermal comfort of conservatories. The findings from these case studies indicate that thermal comfort in dwellings can be enhanced by analysis of future climatic patterns, improved building fabric and provision of passive design consideration of improved ventilation and shading. They also confirm that the utilization of appropriate mitigation strategies to enhance thermal comfort could contribute to the reduction of the environmental implications to the built environment and facilitate the drive towards the attainment of future sustainability requirements.
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Islam, Md Atiqul. "A farm level study of the impact of climate change on agriculture and farmers' adaptation in Bangladesh." Thesis, University of Hull, 2017. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:16475.
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This research investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture and farmers’ adaptation in a setting of a developing country. Empirical investigation is based on first hand survey data collected from rice farms situated in different climatic zones across Bangladesh. This thesis is composed of seven chapters. Chapter 1 discusses the background and motivation, aims, scope and rationale for choosing Bangladesh as the context for this research. A brief overview of the Bangladesh economy, its agriculture and the climate change situation from the historical perspective is contained in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 describes in detail the data collection procedure and some basic statistics of the data. Chapter 4 explores the impact of climate change (changes in temperature and rainfall) on cost, yield and net revenue of rice farms. While previous studies only explored the impact either on net revenue (Ricardian approach) of farms or on the yield (Production function approach) of a crop, this chapter explores the impact of climate change on cost of production as well as on yield and net revenue. Therefore, this study adds to the existing literature by providing a fuller picture regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture from a micro perspective. To see how farmers’ make adaptation decisions in response to perceived climate change, Chapter 5 investigates farmers’ perception of climate change and its determinants. Findings here add to the existing limited literature to understand farmers’ perception and the factors that influence perception. Chapter 6 then analysed farmers’ adaptation strategies so far taken, the barriers they face and the determinants of adaptation decisions. Moreover, for the first time in the literature this study examines the determinants of overcoming obstacles related to different adaptation strategies for the facilitation of farm-level adaptation in developing countries. Finally, Chapter 7 concludes the thesis with a summary of findings with relevant policy recommendations, the contribution of this research and some possible directions for future research.
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Andrijevic, Marina. "Pathways of adaptive capacity for climate impact research." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/23304.
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Bei den Schätzungen der künftigen Auswirkungen bleiben die globalen Ungleichheiten der sozioökonomischen Bedingungen meist unberücksichtigt, die für die tatsächliche Fähigkeit der Systeme, viele der Anpassungsmaßnahmen umzusetzen, entscheidend sein werden. Um das zu erwartende Ausmaß der Anpassung auf der Grundlage wirtschaftlicher, finanzieller, menschlicher, technologischer und anderer Kapazitäten besser bestimmen zu können, sollten Projektionen der Klimaauswirkungen und der daraus resultierenden Verluste und Schäden die Koevolution zwischen Klimagefahren und sozioökonomischer Entwicklung berücksichtigen. In dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Bereiche der Klimawissenschaft miteinander verknüpft, um ein Instrumentarium zur besseren Darstellung der Anpassung in quantitativen Modellierungsinstrumenten anzubieten. Der Ansatz bettet die sozioökonomischen Barrieren in den Szenariorahmen der Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ein, um quantitative Pfade der Anpassungsfähigkeit zu erstellen. Die Integration der Anpassungsfähigkeit in den Szenarioraum ermöglicht eine differenziertere Operationalisierung der Anpassung in der quantitativen Modellierung. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit werden zwei Erweiterungen des Szenariorahmens vorgestellt, die sich auf Indikatoren für die Regierungsführung und die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter als zwei der wichtigsten Hindernisse für die Anpassung konzentrieren. Im zweiten Teil werden zwei Anwendungen der Anpassungsfähigkeit für die Sektoren Gesundheit und Landwirtschaft vorgestellt, die den Zusammenhang zwischen sozioökonomischen Bedingungen und der unterschiedlichen Anfälligkeit für mögliche Klimastressoren aufzeigen. Das hier vorgestellte Toolkit eignet sich in erster Linie für den Einsatz in quantitativen Bewertungen von Auswirkungen und alternativen politischen Optionen, um anpassungsrelevante Informationen einzubeziehen, damit der Klimawandel unter verschiedenen sozioökonomischen Szenarien robuster dargestellt werden kann.Adaptation to climate change can substantially reduce the negative impacts of climate change, but quantitative estimates of future impacts tend to disregard global inequalities in socio-economic conditions, which will be decisive for the systems’ actual ability to deploy many of the adaptation measures. To better ascertain the degree of adaptation that can be expected based on economic, financial, human, technological and other capacities, projections of climate impacts and the ensuing loss and damage should account for the co-evolution between climate hazards and socio-economic development. To this end, this thesis connects several areas of climate change science to offer a toolkit for improving the representation of adaptation in quantitative modeling tools. The approach shown here embeds the socio-economic barriers to into the scenario framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to establish quantitative pathways of adaptive capacity. Integrating adaptive capacity in the scenario space opens opportunities for a more nuanced operationalization of adaptation in quantitative modeling. In the first half of the thesis, two extensions of the scenario framework are presented, focusing on indicators of governance and gender equality as two of the key barriers to adaptation that have not yet been part of the set of indicators in the SSPs. The second half of the thesis showcases two sectoral applications of adaptive capacity for the health and agriculture sectors, demonstrating the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and differential vulnerability to possible climate stressors. The toolkit presented in this thesis is primarily suited for use in quantitative assessments of impacts and alternative policy options to incorporate adaptation-relevant information, with the ultimate goal of a more robust representation of climate change under different socio-economic development scenarios.
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Lindner, André, and Jürgen Pretzsch. "An International Network on Climate Change Impacts on Small Farmers in the Tropical Andes - Global Conventions from a Local Perspective." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-108302.
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The agricultural sector of Andean countries like Peru and Bolivia perceives the consequences of climate change in increasing water stress due to melting glaciers and changing precipitation patterns. Therefore mainly subsistence agricultural systems are increasingly vulnerable. Traditional inhabitants of the tropical Andean region are aware of the recurrent diversity of climate related impacts and its consequences, thus livelihood strategies are based on principles of risk management. Andean farmers are nowadays applying traditional strategies in a combination of homegrown experimentation and scientific know-how to cope with and adapt to a changing climate. Understanding these adaptations has become one of the most important aspects of research into climate change impacts and vulnerability. It provides essential knowledge for developing and transferring strategies towards a sustainable management in agriculture and agroforestry systems. But there still is a lack of a comparative assessment, especially in regions with high impact of extreme climate conditions. The endogenously determined strategies, which are based on the experience of the farmers, are to be complemented by knowledge and experiences coming from outside farm-household systems and communities. In a collaborative way, this exogenous knowledge is to be placed at the disposal of local actors. The necessary network approach leads to a comprehensive involvement of local stakeholders. Therefore a participative network on climate change may work as a tool to bridge the gap between the global discourse on climate change and local action.
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Svensson, Vironica. "The apparel industry’s environmental impact, mitigation and adaptation to climate change : A case study of three Swedish companies." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-272226.
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Each year a large number of garments are produced. The annual global clothing production today accedes 100 billion garments. By 2030, the world population will be more than 8.5 billion people and global clothing production will rise by 63%. The apparel industry’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise by 50% or 60% by 2030 if the industry does not work sustainably. The apparel industry is one of the largest contributors to climate change and global warming which is one of the most threatening issues at the present time. This study contains a literature review about the apparel industry’s environmental impacts and tools, methods and ways used by the apparel companies in general to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In addition, this study contains a description, analysis and comparison of three Swedish apparel companies in terms of their environmental impacts and management systems to mitigate and adapt to climate change. These companies are H&M group, Lindex, and KappAhl. The environmental management systems of these companies have been analyzed to identify and understand their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and issues that constitute threat for them. In order to make deep understanding to the three companies’ environmental management systems, these systems have been compared. The comparison consists of two parts. In the first part, the environmental management systems of the three companies have been compared. In the second part, the environmental management systems of Lindex and KappAhl have been compared. The comparison has been divided into two parts because of the difference in the companies’ size. H&M group is a giant company while Lindex and KappAhl are much smaller. In other words, the first part covers details and estimations about H&M group and only details about Lindex and KappAhl that are appropriate to be compared with H&M group. The second part of the comparison covers details and numbers related to the environmental management systems of Lindex and KappAhl that are not appropriate to be compared with H&M group. This study showed that H&M group can be the role model company in the comparison except for three comparison criteria which are transportation, sustainable denim styles and sustainable clothes hangers. The other conclusion is that Lindex is doing better sustainability work than KappAhl according to some criteria and KappAhl is doing better sustainability work than Lindex according to other criteria. In addition, this study showed that as the apparel industry impacts the climate significantly, the climate started threating the entireapparel industry as a response. The study also showed that customers’ awareness of the apparel industry’s sustainable impacts increased and therefore they want the apparel companies to be more sustainable and transparent. These conclusions in addition to other conclusions have been summarized in the conclusions section which is the last section in this study before the references.
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Perdonò, Simone. "Preliminary assessment of risks and opportunities in the agri-food sector related to climate change." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.
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According to several studies, in 2017 human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C above pre-industrial levels, increasing at 0.2°C per decade. In this context, it is essential that companies understand the risks of climate change and the tools with which manage them.
This thesis work consists of an in-depth study of climate events resulting from climate change that can cause impacts on the studied business system (hazards). Firstly, it has been evaluated the exposure level of the company system with reference to each of the identified hazards. Secondly, it has been identified the possible impacts (consequences) on the business system and the affected impact areas, followed by the evaluation of vulnerability level of the business system against the identified impacts of climate change. Thirdly, the choice of a risk scale (priority) and appropriate interventions of risk mitigation, and finally the implementation of adaptation measures with the appropriate verification of the response effectiveness.
The methodological approach has been conducted on two production plant, as object of the study. The activity has included a first phase of discussion with the company and information collection. At the end, a possible set of adaptation actions to face future climate change, with reference to climate events and risk levels previously analysed, has been identified. It is, however, underlined that the purpose of this preliminary study is not to provide a technical and economic feasibility analysis of the suggested interventions, but to illustrate possible adaptation approaches by selecting concrete proposals already implemented in other contexts.
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Trapp, Natalie [Verfasser], and Andreas [Akademischer Betreuer] Lange. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Options for Adaptation : a Study of the Farming Sector in the European Union / Natalie Trapp. Betreuer: Andreas Lange." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1064076971/34.
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Graux, Anne-Isabelle. "Modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes prairiaux. Voies d'adaptation des systèmes fourrragers." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00653360.
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Les prairies assurent différents services auprès de l'agriculture et de la société, dont les plus fondamentaux sont de produire le lait et la viande que nous consommons, mais également d'atténuer les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) en piégeant une partie du carbone atmosphérique dans leurs sols. L'anticipation des risques associés à la continuité de ces services, dans le contexte de changement climatique (CC) et démographique futur, est l'un des enjeux agricole et sociétal de demain. Dans ce cadre, cette thèse vise à i) modéliser les impacts du CC sur les services et le bilan de GES des prairies, en tenant compte de la variabilité climatique accrue prédite par les modèles climatiques, mais également ii) à fournir des pistes d'adaptations du système fourrager dans le cas de systèmes d'élevage bovin herbagers. Pour cela, nous avons développé les modules animal et végétal de PaSim afin, d'une part, de représenter de façon mécaniste les performances animales et les émissions de méthane entérique au pâturage et, d'autre part, de rendre compte des interactions de la diversité végétale avec le CC et la gestion des prairies. PaSim a ensuite été utilisé pour simuler, en 12 sites français, les impacts du CC sur des prairies mono ou plurispécifiques, dans différentes conditions pédoclimatiques et de gestion. Le modèle a été forcé par des scénarios climatiques à haute résolution couvrant la période 1950-2100 et issus de différents scénarios socio-économiques, modèles climatiques et méthodes de régionalisation / initialisation. Les conséquences du CC sont globalement assez favorables, hormis pour la production fourragère estivale et la restitution d'eaux aux nappes, pour lesquels les risques d'une diminution significative sont accrus. Les sites plus arides ne sont pas nécessairement ceux qui connaîtront la plus forte évolution négative, même si, en absolu, ils restent ceux présentant les déficits fourragers et hydriques les plus forts. De nouvelles opportunités pour la production fourragère s'offre aux saisons autres que l'été, laissant présager de changements saisonniers importants qui nécessiteront fatalement une adaptation des systèmes d'élevage de ruminants. Une étude de cas, centrée sur les bassins de production breton et du Massif Central, a permis de montrer que ces changements pourraient s'accompagner de modifications de la distribution de fourrages et de concentré en complément de l'herbe pâturée, avec parfois, une exclusion des troupeaux de la pâture l'été. Des systèmes fourragers offrant une certaine flexibilité face à l'aléa climatique pourraient permettre d'exploiter à son maximum l'herbe pâturée, avec des temps de pâturage plus longs et davantage de surfaces allouées au pâturage, et par conséquent des chargements plus élevés. Ces adaptations ne devraient pas nuire au bilan net de GES à l'échelle du système, exprimé par UGB jour. En revanche, afin de soutenir le potentiel de production, elles pourraient nécessiter un recours plus important à l'azote et, de fait, augmenter les pollutions azotées à l'échelle du système.
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Paone, Laura Clare. "Hazard sensitivity in Newfoundland coastal communities : impacts and adaptations to climate change, a case study of Conception Bay South and Holyrood, Newfoundland /." Internet access available to MUN users only, 2003. http://collections.mun.ca/u?/theses,170975.
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