Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate change – Economic aspects'

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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According to Munich Re (2013), economic losses related to natural disasters have increased from an average of $50 billion in the 1980s to $200 billion over the last decade. The cost of natural disasters is accumulating rapidly and some claim that climate change is responsible. Others believe that human behaviors like population growth or land use should be blamed for these rising costs. The process of climate change has already taken place, and it is expected to continue to impact the future. As a result, people are more vulnerable today. Therefore, understanding the economic aspects of climate change and natural hazard risks should be considered as a major issue and addressed in greater detail. This dissertation aimed to explore household preferences of climate change adaptation and the economic impacts of natural hazards at both micro- and macro- levels. The dissertation consisted of three related empirical studies based on the two main changes that will occur with climate change predicted by scientific climate models: stronger hurricanes and rising sea levels. The first chapter examined the impact of a recent hurricane on household activities. The objective was to find out whether a more intensified hurricane caused greater damages, and whether such damages had a long-lasting impact on household recovery. If the impact of natural hazards is worse than before, people should avoid putting themselves in harm's way. However, evidence indicates that the population in coastal cities is still growing fast, as people tend to reside near the beaches and attractive landscapes. Concerns are thus prompted by the possible lack of perceptions for future risks caused by natural hazards. Therefore, the second chapter focused on household perceptions and preferences for adapting to sea level rise in Florida. Lastly, although a disaster strikes rich or poor nations indifferently, some small island nations are among the most vulnerable. In the third chapter, the macroeconomic implications of natural hazards in Central America and the Caribbean were investigated. A careful examination of the economic factors that can lead to smaller losses and higher abilities to cope with disasters is crucial in such countries.

This study used county-level yields and panel data (1950-2006) to explain the Impact of climate change and weather variability on North Dakota agriculture by estimating the effect of variation in temperature and precipitation on the yields of four major crops: com, durum, soybeans and wheat. In addition to yields, the study examined Impacts of climate change on crop gross revenues per acre for all 53 counties in North Dakota. An econometric model was developed to infer statistical relationships between weather variability and crop yields. Fixed and random effects models were employed to estimate the impacts of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on crop yields. The Hausman test statistics was applied to test the preferred panel estimation approach: fixed versus random effects. Using mean values of precipitation and degree days for all counties, we calculated percentage changes in estimated crop yields for six climate change scenarios. The historical price data for the four crops (com, soybeans, spring wheat and durum) were used to generate per acre gross returns under the six weather-change scenarios in order to provide preliminary evidence about the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on farmer returns for the four crops.

Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.

This DPhil thesis discusses how two divergent risk conceptions, a 'social view' and an 'economic view' of risk, are constructed through inter-expert risk communication. Different and sometimes contradictory concepts of risk are mobilised in regulatory practice, but the origins of these divergent risk conceptions are not extensively studied. This thesis seeks to unpack this divergence. Empirically, I analyse risk communication among experts in the European Union (EU) during the creation of two risk regulation standards. The two case studies, one related to the development of the two-degree target of EU climate policies (the climate case) and the other about the negotiation of the excessive deficit criteria of the Maastricht Treaty (the euro case), can shed light on the relations between risk conceptions and inter-expert risk communication. I argue that through risk communication, an initial 'view' of risk can be entrenched and developed into a paradigmatic 'risk conception'. My analysis uses historical and sociological institutionalism, by focusing on path dependence of risk communication and social construction risk conceptions among EU experts. Through the two case studies, I identify four analytical dimensions of inter-expert risk communication: networks (the institutional setting and relationships between different experts), cultures (the mentalities of experts in relation to discussing risks), dynamics (the actual processes of transmitting and receiving risk messages) and strategies (the rationales supporting the decisions of risk regulation standards). My thematic analysis reveals four key distinct 'features' of social/economic views of risk: expertise (the types of knowledge mobilised), normality (characterising risk as either 'special' or 'routine'), probability (considering risk as either uncertain or calculable) and impact (seeing risk as either negative or positive). I argue that these four features can help explain the construction of risk conceptions, and more broadly, provide an analytical framework for studying how views of risk evolve and interact over time.

1. Contextual outline of the PhD Research

Climate change is today often seen as one of the most challenging issue that our civilisation will have to face during the 21st century. This is especially so now that the most recent scientific data have led to the conclusion that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming (IPCC 2007, p. 5) and that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming (IPCC, 2007 p. 13). This unequivocal link between climate change and anthropogenic activities requires an urgent, world-wide shift towards a low carbon economy (STERN 2006 p. iv) and coordinated policies and measures to manage this transition.

The climate issue is undoubtedly a typical policy question and as such, is considered amenable to economic scrutiny. Indeed, in today’s world economics is inevitable when it comes to arbitrages in the field of policy making. From the very beginning of international talks on climate change, up until the most recent discussions on a post-Kyoto international framework, economic arguments have turned out to be crucial elements of the analysis that shapes policy responses to the climate threat. This can be illustrated by the prominent role that economics has played in the different analyses produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the impact of climate change on society.

The starting point and the core idea of this PhD research is the long-held observation that the threat of climate change calls for a change of climate in economics. Borrowing from the jargon used in climate policy, adaptation measures could also usefully target the academic discipline of economics. Given that inherent characteristics of the climate problem (e.g. complexity, irreversibility, deep uncertainty, etc.) challenge core economic assumptions, mainstream economic theory does not appear as appropriately equipped to deal with this crucial issue. This makes that new assumptions and analyses are needed in economics in order to comprehend and respond to the problem of climate change.

In parallel (and without environmental considerations being specifically the driving force to it), the mainstream model in economics has also long been (and still is) strongly criticised and disputed by numerous scholars - both from within and outside the field of economics. For the sake of functionality, these criticisms - whether they relate to theoretical inconsistencies or are empirically-based - can be subsumed as all challenging part of the Cartesian/Newtonian legacy of economics. This legacy can be shown to have led to a model imprinted with what could be called “mechanistic reductionism”. The mechanistic side refers to the Homo oeconomicus construct while reductionism refers to the quest for micro-foundations materialised with the representative agent hypothesis. These two hypotheses constitute, together with the conjecture of perfect markets, the building blocks of the framework of general equilibrium economics.

Even though it is functional for the purpose of this work to present them separately, the flaws of economics in dealing with the specificities of the climate issue are not considered independent from the fundamental objections made to the theoretical framework of mainstream economics. The former only make the latter seem more pregnant while the current failure of traditional climate policies informed by mainstream economics render the need for complementary approaches more urgent.

2. Overview of the approach and its main insights for climate policy

Starting from this observation, the main objective of this PhD is thus to assess the implications for climate policy that arise from adopting an alternative analytical economic framework. The stance is that the coupling of insights from the framework of evolutionary economics with the perspective of ecological economics provides a promising way forward both theoretically as well as on a more applied basis with respect to a better comprehension of the socioeconomic aspects related to the climate problem. As claimed in van den Bergh (2007, p. 521), ecological economics and evolutionary economics “share many characteristics and can be combined in a fruitful way" - which renders the coupling approach both legitimate and promising.

The choice of an evolutionary line of thought initially stems from its core characteristic: given its focus on innovation and system change it provides a useful approach to start with for assessing and managing the needed transition towards a low carbon economy. Besides, its shift of focus towards a better understanding of economic dynamics together with its departure from the perfect rationality hypothesis renders evolutionary economics a suitable theoretical complement for designing environmental policies.

The notions of path-dependence and lock-in can be seen as the core elements from this PhD research. They arise from adopting a framework which is founded on a different view of individual rationality and that allows for richer and more complex causalities to be accounted for. In a quest for surmounting the above-mentioned problem of reductionism, our framework builds on the idea of ‘multi-level selection’. This means that our analytical framework should be able to accommodate not only for upward but also for downward causation, without giving analytical priority to any level over the other. One crucial implication of such a framework is that the notion of circularity becomes the core dynamic, highlighting the importance of historicity, feedbacks and emergent properties.

More precisely, the added value of the perspective adopted in this PhD research is that it highlights the role played by inertia and path-dependence. Obviously, it is essential to have a good understanding of the underlying causes of that inertia prior to devising on how to enforce a change. Providing a clear picture of the socio-economic processes at play in shaping socio-technical systems is thus a necessary first step in order to usefully complement policy-making in the field of energy and climate change. In providing an analytical basis for this important diagnosis to be performed, the use of the evolutionary framework sheds a new light on the transition towards low-carbon socio-technical systems. The objective is to suggest strategies that could prove efficient in triggering the needed transition such as it has been the case in past “lock-in” stories.

Most notably, the evolutionary framework allows us to depict the presence of two sources of inertia (i.e at the levels of individuals through “habits” and at the level of socio-technical systems) that mutually reinforce each other in a path-dependent manner. Within the broad perspective on path dependence and lock-in, this PhD research has first sketched the implications for climate policy of applying the concept of ‘technological lock-in’ in a systemic perspective. We then investigated in more details the notion of habits. This is important as the ‘behavioural’ part of the lock-in process, although explicitly acknowledged in the pioneer work of Paul David (David, 1985, p. 336), has been neglected in most of subsequent analyses. Throughout this study, the notion of habits has been studied at both the theoretical and applied level of analysis as well as from an empirical perspective.

As shown in the first chapters of the PhD, the advantage of our approach is that it can incorporate theories that so far have been presented opposite, partial and incomplete perspectives. For instance, it is shown that our evolutionary approach not only is able to provide explanation to some of the puzzling questions in economics (e.g. the problem of strong reciprocity displayed by individual in anonymous one-shot situations) but also is very helpful in bringing a complementary explanation with respect to the famous debate on the ‘no-regret’ emission reduction potential which agitates the experts of climate policy.

An emission reduction potential is said to be "no regret" when the costs of implementing a measure are more than offset by the benefits it generates such as, for instance, reduced energy bills. In explaining why individuals do not spontaneously implement those highly profitable energy-efficient investments ,it appears that most prior analyses have neglected the importance of non-economic obstacle. They are often referred to as “barriers” and partly relate to the ‘bounded rationality’ of economic agent. As developed in the different chapters of this PhD research, the framework of evolutionary economics is very useful in that it is able to provide a two-fold account (i.e. relying on both individual and socio-technical sources of inertia) of this limited rationality that prevent individuals to act as purely optimising agents.

Bearing this context in mind, the concept of habits, as defined and developed in this study, is essential in analysing the determinants of energy consumption. Indeed, this concept sheds an insightful light on the puzzling question of why energy consumption keeps rising even though there is an evident increase of awareness and concern about energy-related environmental issues such as climate change. Indeed, if we subscribe to the idea that energy-consuming behaviours are often guided by habits and that deeply ingrained habits can become “counter-intentional”, it then follows that people may often display “locked-in” practices in their daily energy consumption behaviour. This hypothesis has been assessed in our empirical analysis whose results show how the presence of strong energy-consuming habitual practices can reduce the effectiveness of economic incentives such as energy subsidies. One additional delicate factor that appears crucial for our purpose is that habits are not fully conscious forms of behaviours. This makes that individuals do not really see habits as a problem given that it is viewed as easily changed.

In sum, based on our evolutionary account of the situation, it follows that, to be more efficient, climate policies would have to both shift the incumbent carbon-based socio-technical systems (for it to shape decisions towards a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and also deconstruct habits that this same socio-technical has forged with time (as increased environmental awareness and intentions formulated accordingly are not sufficient in the presence of strong habits).

Accordingly, decision-makers should design measures (e.g. commitment strategies, niche management, etc.) that, as explained in this research, specifically target those change-resisting factors and their key features. This is essential as these factors tend to reduce the efficiency of traditional instruments. Micro-level interventions are thus needed as much as macro-level ones. For instance, it is often the case that external improvements of energy efficiency do not lead to lower energy consumption due to the rebound effect arising from unchanged energy-consuming habits. Bearing this in mind and building on the insights from the evolutionary approach, policy-makers should go beyond the mere subsidisation of technologies. They should instead create conditions enabling the use of the multi-layered, cumulative and self-reinforcing character of economic change highlighted by evolutionary analyses. This means supporting both social and physical technologies with the aim of influencing the selection environment so that only the low-carbon technologies and practices will survive.

Mentioned references:

David, P. A. (1985), Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review 75/2: 332–337.

IPCC, 2007, ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis’, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Stern, N. 2006, ‘Stern Review: The economics of Climate Change’, Report to the UK Prime Minister and Chancellor, London, 575 p. (www.sternreview.org.uk)

van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. 2007, ‘Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics’, Journal of Evolutionary Economics 17(5): 521-549.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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Climate change is a human development challenge. Its negative impacts have the potential to reverse the human development gains made in Africa. South Africa, just like many other countries in the Global South, is being negatively affected by climate change. The country`s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, extractive industries and manufacturing, all of which are vulnerable to climate change in different ways. This vulnerability means different public and private stakeholders must institute sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation measures so as to ameliorate climate change impacts. Gradually transforming to an environmentally friendly ‘green economy’ and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are some of South Africa’s climate change mitigation priorities. Just like the public sector, the private sector has a major role to play in this transition to a low carbon economy through minimising its carbon emissions in their operations. Against this background, this qualitative research examines the role played by four major supermarkets (Shoprite, Spar, Pick n Pay and Woolworths), in climate change mitigation and resilience building. It does so through an appraisal of their mitigation and resilience programs. The four supermarkets were purposively selected in East London, Eastern Cape. Data collection combined heavy reliance on desktop discourse analysis with field interviews in the form of purposively sampled key informant interviews. The results show that the four major supermarkets are implementing a variety of climate change mitigation and resilience strategies. These include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, prioritisation of renewable energy, recycling and environmentally friendly packaging, promotion of sustainable ways of farming and improved fuel efficiency in their transport systems. In terms of policy improvement, the study recommends that there is need for supermarkets to learn from each other’s’ climate change mitigation initiatives so as to advance South Africa’s ‘green economy’ agenda.

Climate change poses a major environmental challenge, due to its adverse effects on human settlement patterns and food security. The global phenomenon upsets seasonal shifts, leading to changes in planting dates and weather patterns. This unpredictability has severe and adverse effects on farmers and rural communities, as variable environmental factors govern activities related to daily sustenance and food availability. The kind of rapid and intense climate change that South African rural spaces are experiencing now, increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. There are growing concerns that the rural poor will be unable to adapt. Rural livelihoods are therefore facing overwhelming and extensive environmental threats, while rural dwellers are finding it difficult to adapt and cope. As a result, climate change can thus be described as one of the most complex and dangerous environmental problems challenging rural livelihoods today. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of climate change on rural poverty at Binfield village in the Eastern Cape and to identify the livelihood activities practiced. Furthermore, the research was conducted to ascertain how rural livelihood activities are affected by climate change and identify and assess the effectiveness of adaption strategies employed by the households. The research also aimed to explore and establish further adaptation strategies. This study made use of a qualitative research method. Babooa (2008) argues that qualitative research is concerned with stories and accounts including subjective understandings, feelings, opinions and beliefs. The study used both primary and secondary data for data. The researcher adopted interviews and field observation for primary data whilst secondary data was sourced from journals, articles and internet sources. O‘ Leary (2004) describes the interview as a method of collecting data where the interviewer asks the Interviewee open-ended questions. The questions were based on the key areas of interest. Qualitative research methods are aimed at understanding the rich, complex characteristic nature of human phenomena. Qualitative methods are concerned with understanding human behaviour from the participant‘s own frame of reference.

Les échecs successifs des négociations internationales sur le réchauffement climatique, dont l'objectif est d'établir un cadre global de lutte contre le réchauffement climatique, ont contribué à l'émergence d'initiatives locales de lutte contre les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, notamment à l'échelle urbaine. Les initiatives locales sont porteuses d'espoir, parce que les pouvoirs locaux ont la charge de décisions influençant les émissions : les décisions relatives à l'aménagement de leurs territoires, au développement des transports en commun, à la construction de logements. Cependant, les politiques locales à mettre en place pour réduire efficacement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre au niveau mondial ne sont pas, aujourd'hui, bien définies. Cette thèse présente un modèle qui permet de comprendre le rôle que peuvent jouer les politiques locales dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique, et leurs interactions avec une échelle plus globale. La plupart des modèles existants utilisés pour évaluer le coût des politiques d'atténuation du changement climatique ne tiennent compte que des déterminants technologiques et négligent le rôle des dynamiques urbaines. Le modèle développé représente les liens entre la consommation d'énergie des ménages, les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et l'organisation spatiale des villes
The failure of the international community, pointed out in the successive annual Conferences of the Parties, to implement global climate policies has fostered supports for local initiatives, in particular at the urban levels. Local action is believed to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions as local communities are at the cutting edge of the climate change challenge because they have responsibility for a wide range of decisions that affect emissions: land use planning, urban transport and housing policies. However, how to use efficiently local policies to reduce gas emissions at a global scale remains unclear. In this thesis, we developed some tools that can give insights on the role of local policies in climate change mitigation and their interaction with the global scale. The overwhelming majority of energy-economy-environment models conventionally used to assess mitigation costs of climate change focus essentially on the technological determinants of energy trends but do not capture explicitly the role of urban dynamics. We propose a step forward to the representation of the interplay between energy consumption, carbon emissions and the spatial organization of cities

Livelihood stressors in southern Africa, such as HIV/Aids and climate change, do not act in isolation but rather interact concurrently in complex socio-ecological systems with diverse, interrelated and compounded affects. Households experience differential vulnerability to such stressors based on contextual factors such as geographical location, income level and the gender and age of its members. Households’ differential experiences of vulnerability are further defined by the households’ use of their capital stocks: the human, social, natural, financial and physical capital available to the household to form livelihoods and resist the detrimental effects of a stressor. The capital stocks of 340 households were measured in two sites in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, using a household survey. These data were analysed to determine differences between the sites, households with heads of different gender and households of different income levels. Further data relating to the drivers and interactions of stressors over temporal and spatial scales, as well as the perceived value of various forms of capital by different social groups in the two sites, were collected via Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) methods including timelines, mental modelling and pair-wise ranking. Although the two sites have similar levels of income and fall within the same province, many significant differences emerged. The two sites showed different distributions of household head genders and different stressors and perceptions of vulnerability, perhaps owing to differences in their capital stocks, acting alongside the influence of culture and access on a shifting rural-urban continuum. These discrepancies further transpired to reflect crucial differential experiences along gender lines and income levels in each site. Vulnerability was often context specific, not only because of unique drivers of stress in different areas, but also because socio-economic groups and localities often had characteristics that could potentially exacerbate vulnerability, as well as characteristics that can potentially facilitate adaptive capacity. Stressors were found to have depleted multiple forms of capital over time, while new stressors were emerging, raising concerns over the most appropriate means of social protection within these contexts.

Climate change and the HIV/AIDS epidemic are two of the most critical long-term global challenges, especially for Africa and even more so Southern Africa. There is great concern that the poor will be unable to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change while HIV/AIDS will exacerbate the impacts of such stressors and deepen the insecurities of many communities already affected by this disease. Studies that consider the interlinked effects of climate change and HIV/AIDS along with other multiple stressors are increasingly needed. This study, located in two rural communities in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, namely Lesseyton and Willowvale, assessed the responses of vulnerable households to the linked shocks and stressors of climate change and HIV/AIDS. This involved assessing, through household surveys, life history interviews and Participatory Learning and Action (PLA), the way in which multiple stressors interacted and affected vulnerable households, the way in which these households responded to and coped with such shocks and stressors, and the barriers which prevented them from coping and adapting effectively. Unemployment emerged as the dominant stress amongst households. The lack of development and having too few opportunities for employment has limited vulnerable households from being able to invest in assets, such as education or farming equipment. This, in combination with the impacts of increased food and water insecurity from recent drought, has created an extremely vulnerable environment for these households. They rely largely on two important safety-nets, namely social capital and the use of natural and cultivated resources; however the latter has been limited due to the impacts of water scarcity and an inability to farm. It was evident that there was little planned long-term adaptation amongst households and from government. Maladaptive short-term coping strategies, such numerous household members depending on one social grant and transactional sex, were too often relied upon, and although they may have helped relieve the stress of shocks momentarily, they did not provide for the long-term well-being of individuals and households. Poor communication and capacity between the different levels of government and between the government (especially at the local level) and the two rural communities has created an environment full of uncertainty and lacking in advocacy. Local government needs increased human, informational, and financial capacity and a clear delegation of responsibilities amongst the different departments in order for the two communities to benefit from the implementation of support strategies. There is also a great need for educational programmes and capacity development within the two rural communities, particularly based on improved coping and longer-term adaptation strategies in response to climate change in order for households to better prepare themselves for the future.

The broad objective of the study was to determine the economic value of local pigs in marketand subsistence-oriented production systems in communal areas of Southern Africa. Data were collected from 288 households to investigate farmer perceptions, effects on pig production and handling of disease outbreaks such as classical swine fever (CSF) in market- and subsistenceoriented production systems. The utilisation of local pigs in these market- and subsistenceoriented production systems in improving people‟s welfare was evaluated. Climate change was identified by farmers in these production systems as a major constraint to pig production hence an experiment was carried out in the hottest season to determine diurnal heat-related physiological and behavioural responses in Large White (LW) and South African local pigs. The same genotypes were used to determine effects of diurnal heat-related stress on their growth performance. Choice experiment was done to determine farmer preferences for local pig traits and implicit prices for these traits in CSF-affected and unaffected areas that were under subsistence- and market-oriented production systems. In this experiment, the importance of heat tolerance was assessed relative to other productive and climate change adaptation traits. Significantly more pigs were culled in the CSF-affected areas that were market-oriented (8.0 ± 1.76) than subsistence-oriented (4.1 ± 1.00) production system. The risk of parasites and disease challenges was high in subsistence-oriented production system and coastal areas. In both production systems, CSF was perceived as destructive since the culling of pigs affected pork availability and income generation. The high risk of disease outbreaks and threat of climate change caused farmers in subsistence-oriented production system to select local pigs for their adaptive traits while those in the market-oriented production system focused on productive imported pigs. Farmers (83 %) indicated that they wanted pig genotypes that were adapted to climate change effects such as hot conditions. Local pigs were found to have superior heat tolerance over LW pigs (P < 0.05) in terms of lower heart rate and skin surface temperature. Frequency per day and duration for behavioural heat loss activities such as wallowing, sleeping in a prostrate posture and sprawling in slurry were also lower (P < 0.05) for local than LW pigs. The superiority of heat tolerance of local over LW pigs was further confirmed by their uncompromised growth performance under high diurnal temperatures. The Pearson‟s product moment correlation coefficient between temperature and feed conversion ratio for LW pigs was strongly positive (r = 0.50; P < 0.001) unlike the weak and positive correlation for local pigs (r = 0.20; P < 0.05). There was a quadratic relationship between temperature and average daily gain (ADG) for both pig genotypes. The regression coefficients for ADG were higher (P < 0.001) for LW than local pigs. It was concluded that at high ambient temperatures, performance of local pigs was less compromised than for LW pigs. Although local pigs were found to be heat tolerant, results of choice experiment showed that this trait was not selected for relative to other traits. Keeping pigs that required bought-in feeds, fell sick often and produced low pork quality (eating quality based on farmer perceptions) negatively affected farmers‟ livelihoods more in subsistence- than market-oriented production system. Farmers in market-oriented production system derived more benefit from productive traits such as heavier slaughter weights and large litter size than subsistence-oriented farmers. Under the subsistence-oriented production system, farmers in CSF-affected areas placed high prices on adaptive traits than the unaffected areas. Subsistence-oriented farmers who were affected by CSF wanted a total compensation price of R10 944.00 (USD1563.43) for keeping a pig genotype with unfavourable traits when compared to R4235.00 (USD605.00) for their CSF-unaffected counterparts. Implicit prices for traits could not be determined for market-oriented production system. It was concluded that farmers in CSFaffected areas placed high economic values on pig traits than farmers from the CSF-unaffected areas. The findings suggest that adapted local pigs can be promoted in subsistence-oriented production systems while productive imported pigs and their crosses with local pigs can be kept in market-oriented production systems.

Government policy development and implementation is often designed to address different sectors of society in isolation, so social, economic and environmental issues are considered as being distinct from one other. Recently it has been acknowledged that 'working in silos' is not conducive for good governance and so efforts have been made for better co-ordination between different government departments and different spheres of government. Our research findings show the knock on effects of one problem into other areas of people's lives, highlighting why it is vital for policies and programmes to be far better co-ordinated. The different challenges and stresses that people face in their lives interact with one another in complex ways, undermining their capacity to cope with and adapt to future changes, such as those expected under climate change.

Two of the main challenges facing communities and governments in developing countries are the reduction of risks of hydro-meteorological hazards and adaptation to climate change. As climate variability and change impacts are becoming more visible in the form of disasters, and are negatively affecting climate sensitive livelihoods and eroding communities' ability to fully recover, leading to increased vulnerability to subsequent climate risks. The unpredictability of current weather systems, therefore, makes it very difficult for poor governments and households to deal with adverse impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the fragmented approach to DRR and CCA with regards to practice, policy and organisational frameworks for dealing with climate risks is resulting in coordination challenges for the government departments. This study aimed to explore how local households and communities perceive and are experiencing and coping with climate change and drought, and what that means for integrating hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The study was carried out in Chirumhanzu district and the methods used for data collection included: 217 household surveys; six focus group discussions; participatory learning actions methods; key informant's interviews and document review. The majority of households owned low value material assets and had low levels of livelihood capitals and this exposed them to the impacts of climate variability and successive droughts. This low adaptive capacity largely affected their ability to engage effective drought risk reduction and adaptation strategies for their livelihood activities in small-scale farming and livestock rearing. Vulnerability to climate risks was exacerbated by seasonal weather forecasts, which were deemed by some households to be unreliable, inaccurate and not easily understood, while others used of indigenous knowledge. Successive droughts affected households' access to food and cash income for other household demands. Other non-climatic factors that contributed to adverse drought impacts at the household level were an emphasis on reactive humanitarian aid approach and the poor economy in Zimbabwe. Additionally, the policy framework for dealing with climate change and drought hazards is fragmented and weak; and is housed in different government departments making it difficult to coordinate and implement. To improve climate risk management, there is need for the government to appreciate that drought risk reduction and climate change adaptation are all about reducing vulnerability. Understanding this, might assist in improving government focus on addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability and mainstreaming DRR and CCA into development processes through addressing specific and generic adaptive capacities. The thesis argues that as long as rural households are involved in climate sensitive livelihood activities and not getting meaningful intervention to diversity and/or better intensify their livelihood activities, they will continue to be vulnerable to successive climate risks. This fragmented approach to dealing with climate risks, is not yielding any successful results with regards to building resilience, risk reduction or adaptation of rural households.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fisiese sowel as ekonomiese kwesbaarheid van die landbousektor as gevolg van klimaatverandering word deur verskeie studies beklemtoon. ‘n Gevallestudie-benadering is gebruik ten einde die potensiële impak van klimaatsverandering op die finansiële kwesbaarheid van verskillende boerderystelsels te bepaal. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel bestaan uit vier modelleringsmodules, naamlik: klimaatsverandering, dinamiese liniêre programmering (DLP), interfases en finansiële-kwesbaarheidsontleding. Empiries afgeskaalde klimatologiese data van vyf verskillende klimaatmodelle dien as basis vir die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel. Die APSIM gewas-model word aangewend om die impak van klimaatsverandering op gewasse-opbrengs te bepaal. Vir sekere gewasse is daar egter nie modelle beskikbaaar nie en het gevolglik die ontwikkeling van ‘n nuwe model genoodsaak. Die Kritiese Gewasse Klimaatsdrempelwaarde (KGKD) modelleringstegniek is ontwikkel ten einde die impak van klimaatsverandering op die opbrengs en kwaliteit van gewasse te kwantifiseer. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel neem ook die verwagte verandering in besproeiingswaterbeskikbaarheid (ACRU-hidrologiemodel) en gewas-besproeiingsbehoeftes (SAPWAT3-model) as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in ag. Die model lewer waardevolle resultate op, naamlik: geprojekteerde veranderinge in gewasse-opbrengs en -kwaliteit, geprojekteerde verandering in beskikbaarheid van besproeiingswater en gewasse-besproeiingsbehoeftes, die optimale kombinering van boerdery-aktiwiteite om netto kontantvloei te maksimeer, asook ‘n stel finansiële resultate wat die impak van klimaatsverandering kwantifiseer. Die finansiële kriteria sluit in: interne opbrengskoers, netto huidige waarde, kontanvloeiverhouding, hoogste skuldverhouding en hoogste skuldvlak. Deur middel van deskundige-groepbesprekings is aanpassingstrategieë vir elk van die gevallestudies geïdentifiseer en by die geïntegreerde model ingesluit as alternatiewe opsies in die DLP-model. Die studie poog om die gaping in die huidige klimaatsveranderingnavorsing met betekking tot ‘n geïntegreerde ekonomiese model op plaasvlak aan te spreek en sodoende ‘n bydrae tot geïntegreerde klimaatveranderingmodellering te maak.

The world is becoming more complex due to the increasing occurrence of social-ecological change. This is particularly evident in the developing world, especially on the African continent, where existing vulnerabilities (i.e. endemic poverty, weak governance, overpopulation and HIV/AIDS) are being exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Climate change poses a very real threat to millions of Africans, especially those who rely on the natural world for their livelihoods. The increasing variability of climate and rainfall patterns are said to have dire consequences on agricultural production which is the main livelihood activity of rural dwellers across the continent. The impacts of such change and variability include, changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding and heavy storms, leading to worsening soil conditions, desertification as well as disease and pest out-breaks which will likely result in reduced crop and livestock yields. A reduction in agricultural production will likely have a negative effect on the food security of millions of people. This study was conducted in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, in two rural villages, Fairbairn and Ntloko located in the former Ciskei homeland, with the purpose of exploring the nexus between climate change, cultivation and food security. This study combined social-ecological thinking with that of political ecology to create a robust lens, in which to analyse the complex interactions between humans and the environment. A mixed methods approach was used to gather the data which consisted of a household survey, using a structured questionnaire as well as semi-structured interviews with various respondents. Quantitative data were analysed using Excel and Statistica 13, whilst coding was used for qualitative data. The main aim of the study was to explore the extent and characteristics of cultivation in the two study sites, the role of household food production in food security as well as the challenges that local cultivator’s face with regards to climate change. In recent decades, there has been a decline in rural agricultural production with many fields that were previously cultivated, lying vacant and unused. However, as this study found, cultivation is still important as over 50% of sampled households cultivated a small area within the homestead. This was mainly done to supplement household food expenditure in order to save cash incomes. The results also found that although participants had perceived negative changes in climate and rainfall (amount, onset, duration), it was not considered the most important challenge for own production. Rather, lack of fencing and capital were seen as major hindrances to efficient own production. Understanding the complexity of own production and food security under a changing climate can help form better and more resilient policies and strategies for rural development, in addition to strengthening future livelihoods of rural people in an ever changing world.

Rural communities in Malawi are experiencing adverse climatic hazards which are attributed to climate variability and change. The frequent events being experienced include floods, dry spells and seasonal droughts. Rural livelihoods are severely affected because of their sensitivity to these phenomena. The research has analyzed community-based coping and adaptation strategies for sustainable livelihoods among the rural poor in Kaunda village, T/A Simlemba in Kasungu district, Malawi. The research data was collected from groups of male and female participants which also included a group of traditional leaders living in the area. The study used Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods such as Focus Group Discussions using the associated tools of resource mapping, transect walks, timelines and livelihood ranking to collect the data. The research findings have revealed that the major climate events experienced in Kaunda village are seasonal droughts and dry spells which have significantly impacted agriculture as a major livelihood activity in Malawi. The study has also revealed the community-based coping and adaptation strategies employed by the people. Recommendations made in this study have highlighted the need to support vulnerable rural communities with resilient and secure livelihoods.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Strong scientific evidence suggests that global warming is altering the world's climate and that this phenomenon is being accelerated as a result of human activities. Climate change is affecting weather patterns and, in addition to demonstrated sea-level rise, these in turn have and are likely to continue having significant, mostly negative, impacts - both economic and loss of life - on governments, industries and people. Ocean levels rose between 15 and 20 centimeters in the 20th century, mostly as a result of melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the oceans. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a: 16) in its 2001 estimate suggests a potential rise in average sea level from nine to 88 centimeters from 1990 to 2100. Areas of risk in the City of Cape Town are residential property, infrastructure and beaches in low-lying areas. These areas are likely to be impacted as a result of increasing sea-level rise and increasing severity and frequency of storms. This study seeks to • demonstrate that sufficient evidence exists to compel decision-makers in the City of Cape Town that climate change and the impacts of sea-level rise and increasing frequency and severity of storms need to be considered in development planning; and • test cost-benefit analysis (through climate change impact analysis) as a tool for decision-makers to consider adaptation measures, using Langebaan as a case study. The research comprises a comprehensive literature study of the impacts of climate change, particularly with respect to coastal areas. A case study based on the eroding beaches at Langebaan is used to test cost-benefit analysis as a tool for decision-makers in dealing with the impacts. Despite the uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change (time, place and extent) the issues of sea-level rise and severe storms seem to warrant further investigation, especially at a local level. This study provides local context to a global problem and makes recommendations for decision-makers in the City of Cape Town. Climate impact analysis (incorporating cost-benefit analysis) is suggested as a tool to quantify avoided damages at vulnerable coastal sites in the City of Cape Town. In conclusion, the impacts of climate change are a complex and multivariate problem. However, there are a number of identified vulnerable areas along the coastline of the City of Cape Town and using tools like climate impact analysis and cost-benefit analysis may assist in identifying, costing and managing these economic risks before the problem becomes unmanageable - a case for quantifying avoided damage.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sterk wetenskaplike bewyse bestaan dat globale verwarming besig is om die wêreld se klimaat te verander en hierdie verskynsel word versnel deur die mens se handelinge. Klimaatsverandering affekteer weerpatrone en bykomend tot gedemonstreerde stygende seevlakke, sal dit waarskynlik 'n langdurige en meestal negatiewe impak - beide ekonomies en lewensverlies - op regerings, industrieë en mense hê. Seevlakke het in die twintigste eeu met tussen 15 en 20 sentimeter gestyg, meestal as gevolg van smeltende ysberge en hitte uitsetting van die oseane. Die 'International Panel on Climate Change' (IPCC, 2001a: 16) het in hul skatting 'n waarskynlike seevlak styging van tussen 9 en 88 sentimeters voorspel vir die tydperk 1990 - 2100. Risikogebiede in die Stad Kaapstad is residensiële gebiede, infrastruktuur en strande in laagliggende gebiede. Hierdie gebiede sal ge-affekteer word deur stygende seevlakke en groter en meer gereelde storms. Hierdie studie poog om • te demonstreer dat voldoende bewyse bestaan om besluitnemers van die Stad Kaapstad te oortuig dat weerveranderinge en die impak van seevlakstygings en toenemende storms in aanmerking geneem moet word in ontwikkelings beplanning; en • koste-voordeel analises (deur klimaatsverandering impak analises) te beproef as 'n hulpmiddel vir besluitnemers om aanpasbare maatreëls te oorweeg, deur Langebaan as 'n voorbeeld te gebruik. Ten spyte van onsekerhede wat saamgaan met die impak van klimaatverandering (tyd, plek en omvang) regverdig die problem van stygende seevlakke en erge storms verdere ondersoek, meer spesifiek op plaaslike vlak. Hierdie studie gee plaaslike konteks aan 'n globale probleem en maak aanbevelings aan beplanners van die Stad Kaapstad. Klimaat impak analises word as hulpmiddel voorgestel om vermybare skades by kwesbare kusgebiede in die Stad Kaapstad te kwantifiseer. Ten slotte: die impak van klimaatsverandering is 'n komplekse probleem met baie fasette. Nietemin is daar verskere sensitiewe areas langs die kus van Stad Kaapstad, en klimaat impak analises en koste-voordeel analises kan help met die identifisering, kosteberekening en bestuur van hierdie ekonomiese risiko areas, voordat dit onhanteerbaar raak.

Climate variability and change as well as sea level rise poses significant challenges to livelihoods, water and food security in small island developing states (SIDSs) including the Zanzibar Islands. Thus, without planned strategic adaptation, the future projected changes in climate and sea level will intensify the vulnerability of these sensitive areas. This thesis is based on research conducted in two sites located in the north eastern parts of each island, namely Kiuyu Mbuyuni, Pemba Island and Matemwe, Unguja Island. The research focused firstly on assessing the vulnerability of these two coastal communities to climate variability and change and other stressors. This included investigation of (1) the perceptions of fishers, farmers and seaweed farmers regarding climate stressors and shocks and associated risks and impacts, (2) existing and possible future water and food security issues, and (3) household's access to important livelihood assets. This was followed by an exploration of the coping and adaptive responses of farmers, fishers and seaweed farmers to perceived shocks and stresses and some of the barriers to these responses. Lastly, an analysis of the implications of the findings for achieving sustainable coastal livelihoods and a resilient coastal community was undertaken. The general picture that emerges is that local people along the east coasts of both islands are already vulnerable to a wide range of stressors. Although variability in rainfall is not a new phenomenon in these areas, increasing frequency of dry spells and coastal floods resulting from the influence of El Niño and La Niña events exert enormous pressures on local activities (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) which are the crux of the local economy. The main argument of the study is that the nature and characteristics of these activities are the main source of sensitivity amongst these communities and this creates high levels of vulnerability to climate shocks and trends. This vulnerability is evidenced by the reoccurrence of localised food shortages and the observed food and water insecurity. The study found that food insecurity is a result of unreliable rainfall, drought and seasonality changes. These interacted with other contextual factors such as poor soil, low purchasing power and the lack of livelihood diversification options. In addition to exposure to these almost unavoidable risks from climate variability, the vulnerability of the local communities along the east coasts is also influenced by the low level of capital stocks and limited access to the assets that are important for coping and adaptation. Despite this, some households managed to overcome barriers and adapt in various ways both within the three main livelihood sectors (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) as well as through adopting options outside these sectors resulting in diversification of the livelihood portfolio. However, the study found that most of the strategies opted for by fishers, farmers and seaweed farmers were mainly spontaneous. Few planned adaptation measures supported by state authorities were observed across the sites, with the exception of the provision of motorised boats which were specifically meant to increase physical assets amongst fishers, reduce pressure in the marine conservation areas and prevent overfishing in-shore. Furthermore, numerous strategies that people adopted were discontinued when further barriers were encountered. Interestingly, some of the barriers that prevented households adapting were the same ones that forced households that had responded to abandon their adaptations. To increase resilience amongst east coast communities to current and future predicted changes in climate and sea level, the study argues that traditional livelihood activities (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) need to be better supported, and access to a range of livelihood assets improved. This may be achieved through increased access to local sources of water and facilitation of rainwater harvesting, expanding the livelihood options available to people and increasing climate change awareness, and access to sources of credit.

Humans make decisions within ecosystems to enhance their well-being, but choices can lead to unintended consequences. The ecosystem services (ES) approach supports decision-making that considers all environmental goods and services. Many challenges remain in the implementation of the ES approach like how specific ES vary through space and time. We address this research problem using the Tualatin and Yamhill river basins in northwestern Oregon as a study area. Freshwater ES are quantified and mapped with the spatially-explicit ES modeling tool, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). In chapter II, we develop a simple urban land cover change modeling approach with selected stakeholder input. The products of this analysis are used in part to answer the question of how the freshwater ES of water yield, nutrient retention, and sediment retention will change in the future, and how their distribution potentially will change? In chapter III, these ES are modeled in InVEST using the land cover scenarios and three downscaled global climate models. The base period is 1981 to 2010 and the future period is 2036 to 2065. The models are calibrated to empirical estimates, and display different sensitivities to inputs. Water yield increases with higher rainfall but decreases with the highest temperature scenario. Nutrient export and retention estimates are positively correlated. In the Tualatin basin, more urban lands generally lead to increases in nutrient exports and retention. The effect is reversed in the Yamhill basin from much larger agricultural exports. Sediment exports and retention increase with higher winter rainfall but are negatively spatially correlated due to topographic effects. Simulation of a landscape scale installation of riparian buffers leads to decreases in exports and increases in retention. The distribution of the provision of freshwater ES remains unchanged throughout the scenarios. With few parameters in each InVEST model, all display a high degree of sensitivity. Parameterization is subject to high uncertainty even with calibrated values. We discuss the assumptions and limitations of InVEST's freshwater models. The spatially explicit nature of InVEST is its main advantage. This work coupled with other analyses in the study area can facilitate the identification of tradeoffs amongst ES leading to better ecosystem management.

Résoudre la crise climatique est un défi intrinsèquement économique. Il s'agit d'inventer une nouvelle économie, moins dépendante des énergies fossiles et capable, face à l'attrait de l'immédiat, de défendre suffisamment les intérêts des générations futures. Partant de ce constat, cette étude repose sur l'idée qu'une réponse normative crédible face aux changements climatiques ne peut passer que par un droit qui soit axé sur la promotion de la transition énergétique et qui garantisse une articulation équilibrée entre les préoccupations économiques de court terme et les préoccupations, à plus long terme, liées à la préservation du climat. L'étude de La prise en compte des aspects économiques du défi climatique dans le régime juridique international du climat vise à déterminer l'importance que les membres du système multilatéral de lune contre les changements climatiques accordent à la nécessité de promouvoir la transition énergétique et d'encadrer l'expression des préoccupations économiques nationales dans le cadre de leur coopération. Fondée sur une analyse de la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques, du Protocole de Kyoto et de leur droit dérivé, cette recherche démontre la portée limitée des outils élaborés pour réformer les modes de développement ainsi que le haut niveau de protection que la norme internationale garantit aux intérêts économiques immédiats des États. Elle démontre également que la coopération climatique multilatérale tend désormais à être marquée par un mouvement de renationalisation des questions relatives à la promotion de la transition énergétique et à l'articulation des valeurs économiques et environnementales
Tackling climate change is indisputably an economic challenge. It requires a shift towards a new kind of economy Jess dependent on fossil fuel, and capable to protect the interests of future generations. Given that context, it thus appears essential that international climate policies mainly focus on promoting energy transition and maintaining a balanced approach between short-term economic interests and longer-term benefits associated with mitigating climate change. Based on this assumption, the thesis questions the importance granted by members of the UN climate change regime to the need of setting rules that favor a low-carbon growth model and regulate the pursue of immediate national economic interests. Through a detailed analysis of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and their law-making process, this study first underlines the limited scope of the international tools (such as market mechanisms) specifically designed by member States to promote a low-carbon economy. It also demonstrates that international climate rules ensure to all member States a high level of protection of their national short-term economic interests. Finally, the thesis shows that UN climate cooperation now tends to be characterized by a movement of renationalization of issues related to the promotion of energy transition and the articulation of economic and environmental values

This study investigates the extent to which South African short-term insurance companies manage climate change risk, as evidenced in their annual and sustainability reporting. The study context takes into account the fact that the world’s climate has been changing at a more accelerated rate since the early 1970s, causing disasters that have negatively affected world economies in the last ten years. Insurers, due to their huge financial resource base, long history of spurring innovation around risk and encouraging loss-reducing behaviour as well as high levels of vulnerability, have been identified as one industry that could lead societies in finding solutions to climate change risk. A key element of such a corporate resolve involves taking a leadership position which makes business sense for insurers. As such, this research analyses how innovative solutions to change-related problems could result in reduced exposure to climate change in line with corporate triple bottom line objectives. Based on a purposive sampling of short-term insurance companies operating in the South African market during the 2007 financial year, the study uses the companies’ annual and sustainability reports in order to critically assess evidence of climate change-related performance. The assessment is undertaken against the best practice indicators of climate change risk management, as defined by Ceres – a global researcher on climate change management in the business context. The data analysis is largely qualitative, consisting of a narrative presentation of the results and a conceptual application of the results to the triple bottom line which forms the theoretical framework of this study. The study finds that the South African short-term insurers were generally not living up to the climate change management ideals, in comparison to their multinational counterparts. For the South African short-term insurers, corporate strategic product innovation and planning was insignificant. Also negligible was board involvement, as well as CEO involvement, though in at least one case of the 4 local short-term insurance, there was evidence of extensive CEO involvement in climate change risk management. On the whole, these findings represent a lapse in corporate governance inasmuch as climate change risk management is concerned. Local short-term insurers generally performed well in the area of public disclosure, with their scores ranging from insignificant to extensive. In contrast, multinational short-term insurers’ performance with regard to climate change risk intervention ranged from insignificant tointegrated, across the five governance areas of board oversight, management execution, public disclosure, emissions accounting and strategic planning. As such, the study broadly recommends that short-term insurers in South Africa should make climate change part of their overall risk management strategies in order for them to remain competitive in an environment of increased climate change-related risk. More specifically, the research project recommends that the local insurers should proactively lead climate change mitigation measures through, for instance, investing in clean energy projects and incentivising their clients’ participation in the carbon market to prepare themselves for possible regulatory restrictions after the Copenhagen climate change conference planned for December 2009. This study also challenges insurers to help communities and as well as other businesses in their value chain to reduce their negative impacts on the world’s climate and to be more resilient against disasters which may arise from the high levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Further, it recommends that insurers should create internal board and executive level climate change-related structures, as these will facilitate the integration of the proposed initiatives into their overall sustainability strategies. Above all, the study recommends that insurers should enhance the reporting of their climate change-related risk, opportunities and initiatives to improve their integrity.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most topical and widely discussed factors which could lead to the ultimate end of life on earth is global warming and its devastating effects. Several current trends clearly demonstrate that global warming is directly impacting on rising sea levels, the melting of icecaps and other significant worldwide climatic changes. These climatic changes will have a profound effect on the economy of the world as well as having health and social consequences for humans on earth. It has also become evident that mankind has played a significant role in causing global warming through its excessive burning of fossil fuels and its deforestation activities. Mainstream economists have increasingly realised that the prime cause of environmental problems is the absence of markets and more specifically, the absence of private ownership, which provide the foundation for markets. This occurrence has also been described in the literature as the tragedy of the commons. Mankind has come to a point in its history whereby it is in great danger of causing its own annihilation through the destruction of its natural environment. As a result of this, world leaders and many industrialists have realised that it is essential that the world must do something to preserve the natural environment. This was the rationale behind the Kyoto Protocol. In Kyoto 38 industrial states undertook to reduce their total emissions of six important greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent by the period 2012 at the latest. It was agreed in Kyoto that the system to be used to curb global warming should be based on free market principles that would focus on limiting the tragedy of the commons. On this basis it was agreed that the international trade in greenhouse gas emission allowances might fulfil an important role in providing countries and companies with the capabilities to achieve part of their reduction obligations. The Kyoto mechanism was therefore designed on the basis of emissions trading, but also had an equity objective with respect to developing countries. Supporters of the trading scheme are of the opinion that this market will guarantee that certain emission targets are met. In principle, the international trade in emission credits offers several advantages in terms of a flexible and cost-efficient realisation of the reduction obligations undertaken at Kyoto. Supporters of emissions trading are also of the opinion that trading in these gases also has economic and technological benefits. The answer to global warming might be as simple as buy low, sell high conventions. Now greenhouse-gas emissions are becoming a commodity that can be bought and sold on a worldwide scale, just like gold or soybeans. It is expected that the trading in greenhouse-gas emission rights will ultimately constitute the largest commodities market in the world. An international market for greenhouse gas emission allowances is already developing. However, rules governing such transactions are not fully worked out yet. The 178-nation Kyoto Protocol on global warming may provide a start, despite the US's refusal to support the treaty. It will be the aim of this thesis to provide understanding in terms of the functioning of emissions trading schemes and therefore the Kyoto mechanism as a solution to this problem of global warming. It will also be an important objective of this thesis to provide insight into the issues applicable to climatic change and the Kyoto mechanism.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Atmosfeerverwarming is wêreldwyd een van die mees bespreekte kwessies. Die nadelige effek van atmosfeerverwarming as gevolg van die toenemende kweekhuiseffek, het die potensiaal om tot die uiteindelike uitwissing van lewe op aarde te lei. Verskeie tendense dui daarop dat atmosfeerverwarming 'n direkte impak op stygende seevlakke, die ontvriesing van die pakys by die pole en ander noemenswaardige klimaatsversteuringe het. Indien iets drasties nie gedoen word om atmosfeer verhitting te keer nie, sal klimaatsversteuringe 'n geweldig nadelige effek op die wêreld ekonomie te weeg bring, asook 'n nadelige effek op gesondheids- en sosiale toestande tot gevolg hê. Dit het duidelik geword dat die aktiwiteite van die mensdom, hoofsaaklik verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe en ontbossing, te blameer is vir atmosfeerverwarming. Ekonome wêreldwyd het toenemend besef dat die hoofrede vir omgewingsprobleme, soos atmosfeerverwarming, toegeskryf kan word aan die afwesigheid van markte en meer spesifiek die afwesigheid van privaatbesit, wat in effek die basis van die vrye mark vorm. Hierdie gebeurtenis word in die ekonomiese literatuur beskryf as die "tragedie van die gemene goedere" . Wêreldpolitici en industriële leiers het besef dat die mens by 'n punt in sy geskiedenis gekom het waar hy moontlik sy eie uitwissing kan bewerkstellig en dat iets drasties gedoen moet word om die natuurlike omgewing te beskerm om sodoende volhoubare ekonomiese groei te verseker. Hierdie besef het gelei tot die totstandkoming van die Kyoto Protokol waar 38 nywerheidslande ooreengekom het om voor die jaar 2012 hul totale nasionale emissies van die ses belangrikste kweekhuisgasse met ten minste 5 persent tot onder hul 1990 emissievlakke te verminder. Daar was in Kyoto ooreengekom dat die stelsel wat gebruik moet word om die Kyoto doelwitte te bereik sterk vryemark eienskappe moet besit asook meganismes om regverdigheid en gelykheid tussen lande in terme van kweekhuisgasbeperkings te verseker. Die Kyoto meganismes is ontwerp met sterk vryemark eienskappe, wat basies 'n stelsel is waarvolgens lugbesoedelingsregte verhandel kan word. Hierdie verhandeling van besoedelingsregte kan toegepas word om kweekhuis gasse te verminder. Die Kyoto meganismes en dus lugbesoedelingsverhandeling verskaf buigbaarheid aan besighede en lande om hul onderskeie besoedelingsbeperkingsdoelwitte op die mees koste effektiewe manier te bereik. Die antwoord op atmosfeer verwarming kan dalk so eenvoudig wees soos koop laag en verkoop hoog. Kweekhuisgasse is besig om net soos graan of goud 'n kommoditeit te raak. Daar word verwag dat die verhandeling in kweekhuis gas besoedelingsregte uiteindelik sal groei tot die grootste kommoditeitsmark ter wêreld. Ondersteuners van die Kyoto meganismes is van mening dat kweekhuisgas verhandeling ook ekonomiese en tegnologiese voordele inhou. Dit is 'n oogmerk van die Kyoto meganismes om die verskuiwing van tegnologie tussen ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande asook volhoubare groei te verseker. 'n Grysmark vir kweekhuisgas regte is reeds internasionaal, voor die beplande instelling van die Kyoto meganismes, aan die ontwikkel. Die reëls en regulasies vir die Kyoto meganismes is nog nie gefinaliseer nie. Dit en die onwilligheid van die VSA om die Protokol te onderteken, belemmer die vroegtydige implementering van die Kyoto meganismes en die effektiwiteit van die stelsel. Dit is die doelwit van die werkstuk om die leser bekend te maak met die funksionering van emissieverhandeling as 'n vryemark stelsel om omgewingsprobleme soos atmosfeerverwarming te verminder. Die werkstuk beoog ook om die kwessies betrokke by klimaatsverandering en die Kyoto meganismes aan die leser te verduidelik.

Les contestations normatives relatives à la nature des transferts financiers Nord-Sud visant l’adaptation au changement climatique et à ses relations avec l’aide publique au développement (APD) se sont considérablement accentuées depuis 2009 lorsque les pays développés se sont conjointement engagés à fournir des ressources «nouvelles et supplémentaires » à hauteur de 30 milliards de dollars pour la période 2010-2012 et à mobiliser collectivement 100 milliards de dollars par an d’ici à 2020, en les répartissant de manière « équilibrée » entre l’atténuation et l’adaptation dans les pays en développement. Mouvements de solidarité internationale, organisations non gouvernementales de protection de l’environnement, représentants des pays en développement, et parfois institutions multilatérales de développement :nombreux sont les acteurs qui appellent à la mise en place d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui existerait séparément de l’aide, en représentant une forme de « compensation » liée à la responsabilité disproportionnée des pays développés dans l’occurrence du changement climatique.

Notre thèse se construit à partir d’un constat :celui de la déconnexion entre une hypothèse largement répandue dans la littérature académique (i.e. l’existence d’un financement international de l’adaptation qui serait distinct de l’APD – et original sous divers aspects) et la réalité observable (i.e. l’existence d’un tel financement ne se vérifie pas dans les faits). Comment expliquer cette déconnexion ?Telle est précisément la question que nous tentons d’élucider dans le présent document. Nous formulons l’hypothèse selon laquelle les discours opposant le financement international de l’adaptation et l’aide au développement sont le produit d’une vision particulière de ce que devrait être l’APD. L’ambition de notre recherche est dès lors de caractériser cette vision normative de l’aide et d’examiner ses manifestations dans une série de débats récurrents qui traversent la question du financement international de l’adaptation. Nous mettons en évidence le fait que ces discours renouvellent une vision de l’aide entre États souverains destinée à répondre aux injustices internationales et à alimenter un transfert de ressources régulier entre pays riches et pays pauvres.
Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

La présente thèse analyse les principaux aspects du défi de la durabilité des ressources en eau au Mexique avec l'objectif de contribuer à la littérature économique et d'alimenter par les faits l'élaboration de politiques. Elle est composée de trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre analyse la distorsion causée par les subventions à l'électricité et leurs effets sur la surexploitation des nappes phréatiques. Il contribue à la littérature en fournissant des estimations sur les élasticités prix-croisés liées à la demande d'eau d'irrigation au Mexique. Les résultats montrent que les changements dans le prix de l'eau souterraine affectent la quantité d'eau pompée ainsi que la répartition du travail et des engrais. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les effets des inspections environnementales sur l'extraction illégale de l'eau dans les municipalités mexicaines. Les résultats montrent que le programme d'inspection mené par l'agence de l'eau au Mexique a un impact sur le nombre d'irrigants ne possédant pas de concession valide. Toutefois, des efforts supplémentaires sont nécessaires pour améliorer la capacité des bureaux régionaux et permettre au programme d'avoir un effet substantiel sur la durabilité de l'eau. Enfin, le troisième chapitre aborde certaines des préoccupations liées au changement climatique en analysant les effets des périodes de sécheresse et des inondations sur la migration interne au Mexique. Les résultats montrent que la sécheresse comme les inondations agissent comme facteurs d'incitation à la migration interne. En outre, les écarts de revenu, les homicides, et le niveau d'éducation sont des facteurs clés pour la migration interne
The sustainability or water resources in Mexico is challenged, among other things, by inadequate regulation tools, limited enforcement capacity, and the uncertainty related to climate change. This thesis analyses key aspects of these challenges with the overall objective of contributing to the economic literature and providing inputs for evidence based policy making. The thesis is composed of three chapters. The first chapter looks at the mechanisms regulating groundwater extraction. In particular, it analyses the distortion caused by electricity subsidies and their effects on groundwater overdraft. It contributes to the existing literature by providing estimates on cross-price elasticities related to irrigation water demand in Mexico. The results of this chapter show that changes in the price of ground water not only affect the amount of water pumped, but also the allocation of labour and fertilizers. The second chapter studies the effects of environmental inspections on illegal water extraction across Mexican municipalities. Results show that the main inspection program led by Mexico's water agency does have an impact on the number of irrigators extracting water without a valid concession. However, further efforts improving the capacity of regional offices are required for this program to have a substantive effect on water sustainability. Finally, the third chapter addresses some of the concerns related to climate change by analyzing the effects of droughts and floods on internal migration trends in Mexico. Results show that both droughts and floods act as push factors for internal migration. In addition, results also show that income differential, murders, and educational attainments are key drivers for internal migration in the country

Dans le présent travail de recherche, nous proposons d’analyser principalement l’effet direct et indirect du changement climatique sur la production agricole et la croissance économique. Pour ce faire, la voie méthodologique retenue dans cette thèse est une voie empirique, s’appuyant à la fois sur l’économétrie spatiale, la technique de cointégration sur données de panel ainsi que le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique multisectoriel
The aim of this research is to analysis both direct and indirect effect of the climate change on the agricultural production and the economic growth. This PhD research we will be based on an empirical methodology, through applying a spacial econometrics and the cointegration technique of a panel data as well as a multisectoral general equilibrium growth model. The first part is devoted to find the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in a macro spatial level during the period 1980-2012. The main gaol of this first chapter of this PhD is to determine the direct and indirect effect of the weather forecast and the temperature changes in one region compared to the neighbouring regions. The originality of this spacial modelisation is to give an effective spacial effect. The second part of this research is aimed to use a micro spacial analysis to find out the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in the long term way and for each region rather then all of them together as in the first chapter. In the last part of this PhD research we developed a general and dynamic equilibrium model for the Tunisian economy taking in a count eventual climate change forcast from 2015 to 2030. Aiming to calculate the effect of this change on the agricultural production and the economic aggregate in Tunisa. The resulats show that the climate change forecast in the futur will affect the agricultural production in Tunisia in both the short run and the long term and this is because of the irrigated and non irrigated plantations. The decrease of the production will affect the food industry which will decrease the level of the investment, the employment in this sector as well as the consumption

Extreme weather events, armed conflicts and migration are considered as the most likely, and most substantial, risk factors of 2015, 2016 and 2017 in the latest Global Risk Report by World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, 2017). That these factors are in turn influenced by climatic conditions is also a well-documented consensus. As global warming become an unescapable reality (IPCC, 2014), my thesis attempts to make a contribution to understanding of its consequences by quantifying the magnitude and significance of the influence of climatic factors on conflict and migration. An overview of the thesis is provided in the first chapter. The main aim of the second chapter is to provide a comprehensive empirical study of the impact of climatic factors on the onset of internal armed conflicts. There is no firm consensus in the literature regarding a coherent set of factors that cause armed conflicts. In particular, while there are new studies emerging which examine this issue, conclusions about the role of climatic factors remain rather ambiguous. The contribution of this chapter is to carry out a systematic econometric study of the role of variables commonly used in the literature in order to establish a robust empirical specification which could aid quantifying the contribution of climatic factors. We find that (i) climate warming is instrumental in raising the probability of onset of armed conflicts, and (ii) there is an interdependency in the way temperature and precipitation affect the onset of conflicts: dryness (low precipitation) increases the effect of temperature growth. High levels of political and economic development are widely regarded as important factors that contribute to sustained civil peace. However, repeated occurrences of conflicts in democratic regimes and their complete absence in some rich countries with non-democratic regimes are counter examples that cannot be simply regarded as exceptions. Given this anomaly, the third chapter examines whether the influence of development and democracy are contingent on each other. Using a robust empirical specification that takes account of climatic factors, we find that economic development per se reduces the probability of conflicts but its impact is contingent on the extent of political development and that the latter might in fact reverse the overall impact of former. Demographic projections suggest that climate change will be responsible for a large displacement of population worldwide (Gemenne et al., 2012). Evidence shows that a major part of such displacements primarily take place within national borders in the first instance. The fourth chapter investigates the nature of internal migration within Iran which has experienced substantial internal migration and is also subject to significant climatic variations. We find that even though climatic variables are not the leading factors of internal migration in Iran, their role, especially as push factors, is eminent: It appears people tend to leave warmer and/or drier regions, and select nearby destinations which offer better economic opportunities and welfare provision.

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Bachelors
Business Administration
Business Economics

Structural change in a two-sector model of the climate and the economy introduces issues concerning substitutability among goods in a two-sector economic growth model where emissions from fossil fuels give rise to a climate externality. Substitution is modeled using a CES-production function where the intermediate inputs differ only in their technologies and the way they are affected by the climate externality. I derive a simple formula for optimal taxes and resource allocation over time and highlight model sensitivity w.r.t the elasticity of substitution and distribution parameters. Energy Balance Climate Models and General Equilibrium Optimal Mitigation Policies  develops a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing across latitudes driven by global fossil fuel use coupled to an economic growth model. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes are not possible or costly, then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-uniform and may be lower at poorer latitudes. Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time Profile of Climate Change Policy explores optimal mitigation policies through the lens of a latitude dependent energy balance climate model coupled to an economic growth model. We associate the movement of an endogenous polar ice cap with the idea of a damage reservoir being a finite source of climate related damages affecting the economy. The analysis shows that the introduction of damage reservoirs  can generate multiple steady states and Skiba points. Assessing Sustainable Development in a DICE World investigates a method for assessing sustainable development under climate change in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-2007 model). The analysis shows that the sustainability measure is highly sensitive to the calibration of the inter-temporal elasticity parameter and discount rate of the social welfare function.

The first essay considers the relative effectiveness of government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as channels to allocate resources. I use a catastrophic climate-related shock--Hurricane Mitch--to examine the political economy of these channels of aid distribution at the micro level. I combine extensive data on aid received by Nicaraguan households with data on municipal election outcomes and an exogenous, precipitation-based measure of hurricane impact. I find that the hurricane had long-lasting effects on the aid received by households from both NGOs and the government. In the short term, however, the government did not provide aid according to the objective measure of hurricane damage but instead provided aid along political lines. The second essay presents estimates of a relationship between extreme hot temperatures during gestation and a child's subsequent physical well-being in a sample of children in Peru, thus extending existing evidence constructed from U.S. data. Estimates are constructed using high-resolution gridded climate data and geo-coded household surveys. The results suggest that a period of extreme heat (a month whose average temperature is more than 2 standard deviations above the local average) in the period 1 to 3 months before birth is associated with lower weight at birth and a reduction in height (measured 1 to 59 months after birth) that cannot be fully explained by birth weight. There is no evidence of differential maternal investment, as measured by duration of breastfeeding, according to a child's exposure to extreme heat during gestation. The third essay asks whether improved treatment of HIV/AIDS in Africa can be achieved simply by paying health workers to do more. I present estimates of the impact of financial incentives paid to individual workers at public health facilities in Mozambique. The results suggest that piece-rate incentives increased the delivery of five out of fourteen health services for which treatment effects can be identified, with estimated increases ranging from 34 to 157 percent, depending on the particular service. I find no evidence of a corresponding decrease in the delivery of services that are not financially incentivized, suggesting that there is no "crowding out" of intrinsic motivation.

We present a model based on Keynesian aggregate demand and labor productivity growth to study how climate damage affects the long-run evolution of the economy. Climate change induced by greenhouse gas lowers profitability, reducing investment and cutting output in the short and long runs. Short-run employment falls due to deficient demand. In the long run productivity growth is slower, lowering potential income levels. Climate policy can increase incomes and employment in the short and long runs while a continuation of business-as-usual leads to a dystopian income distribution with affluence for few and high levels of unemployment for the rest.
Series: Ecological Economic Papers

The evolutionary economic geography of climate change is concerned with the processes by which the landscapes of greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to climate change are transformed from within over time. Unlike neoclassical economics, evolutionary economic geography is interested in how economic change is driven by innovation and shaped by structural, historical, and contextual factors at different scales. This thesis articulates an evolutionary economic geography perspective on three debates: (1) What factors influence human systems’ capacity to adapt to climate change, and how can these factors be assessed? (2) What forces drive and inhibit economic change towards low-carbon economies, and how should governments induce and manage such shifts? (3) What role should climate finance play in promoting developing countries’ shifts to low-emitting and climate-resilient economies, and how should it be managed? The thesis includes five academic papers. The first reviews the literature on vulnerability and adaptation. It argues that the adaptive capacity of human systems is constrained by structural and historical factors, and that the rich data necessary to identify these factors can only be obtained through qualitative research methods. The next two papers offer case studies from the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation and Policy Development project, which assess the adaptive capacity of Soufriere, Saint Lucia and Whitehouse, Jamaica, respectively. The fourth paper examines the mechanics of three low-carbon shifts in Brazil: the diffusion of no-till agriculture, the decrease in the deforestation rate in the Amazon, and the growth of the ethanol biofuel industry. It found that the driving forces behind each of the shifts were far more varied and complex than the price-based market dynamics analysed in neoclassical economics. The final paper argues that climate finance will need to perform a variety of functions beyond attracting low-carbon private investment. It concludes that the institutional architecture governing climate finance should enable direct access to national governments to incentivise them to implement sustainable innovation policy regimes.

Aquesta tesi doctoral esta composta per tres capítols independents. Contribueix a una literatura sobre desenvolupament econòmic, la geografia econòmica, el comerç internacional i el canvi climàtic. Al capítol 1, “El poder dels mercats: impacte de les invasions de llagostes del desert sobre la salut infantil”, proporciono proves reduïdes de la importància (accés a) mercats en la transmissió de xocs agrícoles impulsats pel canvi climàtic a l’acumulació de capital humà a economies agrícoles de baixos ingressos. En general, argumenta per la importància d’abordar les reaccions del mercat local a aquest tipus de xoc agrícola a l’hora de dissenyar polítiques públiques. També transmet evidències clares de la vulnerabilitat de les economies agrícoles i de baixos ingressos als xocs a curt termini induïts pel canvi climàtic. Per tant, motiva els capítols posteriors, en què estudio les reaccions econòmiques a llarg termini i les conseqüències del canvi climàtic. Al capítol 2, “Canvi climàtic i migració: el cas d’Àfrica”, estudio els possibles costos econòmics i les respostes migratòries al canvi climàtic en el context de l’Àfrica subsahariana (SSA) durant les properes dècades. Per a això, desenvolupo un marc espacial quantitatiu que recull el paper de les xarxes comercials i la idoneïtat agrícola en la distribució de la població i el PIB (tenint en compte els ajustos endògens de la selecció i el comerç de cultius). El combino amb dades geoespacials detallades de SSA per simular l’impacte del canvi climàtic mitjançant previsions de productivitat agrícola el 2080 de la FAO. Els resultats suggereixen que el canvi climàtic podria conduir a grans fluxos migratoris dins i entre els països de la SSA, amb pèrdues econòmiques substancials. A més, la capacitat d’ajustar la barreja de producció entre diferents sectors (cultius i / o no agrícoles) o l’elevat accés als mercats mitiga parcialment els impactes del canvi climàtic en termes de sortides de població. Finalment, un experiment relacionat amb l’adopció de tecnologia a l’agricultura mostra que l’adopció tecnologia en aquest sector podria revertir considerablement els impactes negatius del canvi climàtic. El capítol 3, “Especialització sectorial local en un món d’escalfament” estudia l’evolució de la distribució geogràfica de l’economia i el clima mundials en un entorn on tots dos elements són endògens entre si. En particular, incorporo un enllaç entre l’activitat econòmica, les emissions de carboni i l’escalfament global en un model d’equilibri espacial general dinàmic on la innovació espacial impulsa la dinàmica de l’evolució de la productivitat i el creixement. Simulant l’evolució de l’economia mundial durant els propers segles, trobo una concentració d’activitat agrícola molt més gran a les latituds del nord (per exemple, Sibèria) si es compara amb un escenari sense escalfament global. En termes agregats, el canvi climàtic condueix a diferents patrons d’evolució de la productivitat sectorial, el creixement econòmic i l’especialització en sectors agrícoles i urbans, en línia amb alguns dels resultats del capítol 2. Un experiment relacionat amb els costos comercials mostra que friccions més altes en el comerç distribueix la producció i els factors propers a la demanda, reduint l’avantatge comparatiu en regions més perifèriques del món. En general, la meva tesi doctoral proporciona evidències clares de les diferències espacials en les reaccions (i les conseqüències) del canvi climàtic a tot el món. També argumenta fermament per la importància del comerç com a mecanisme econòmic clau darrere de la transmissió d’aquest tipus de xoc als resultats econòmics. En els temps actuals de globalització ràpida, integració de mercats i expansió de xarxes comercials, la meva tesi mostra que apropar els mercats més aïllats a les xarxes comercials globals pot tenir un paper clau en la mitigació de les conseqüències futures del canvi climàtic.
En el capítulo 1, “El poder de los mercados: impacto de las invasiones de langostas del desierto sobre la salud infantil”, proporciono pruebas reducidas de la importancia (acceso a) mercados en la transmisión de choques agrícolas impulsados por el cambio climático a la acumulación de capital humano a economías agrícolas de bajos ingresos. En general, argumenta por la importancia de abordar las reacciones del mercado local en este tipo de choque agrícola a la hora de diseñar políticas públicas. También transmite evidencias claras de la vulnerabilidad de las economías agrícolas y de bajos ingresos a los choques a corto plazo inducidos por el cambio climático. Por lo tanto, motiva a los capítulos posteriores, en que estudio las reacciones económicas a largo plazo y las consecuencias del cambio climático. En el capítulo 2, “Cambio climático y migración: el caso de África”, estudio los posibles costes económicos y las respuestas migratorias al cambio climático en el contexto del África subsahariana (SSA) durante las próximas décadas. Para ello, desarrollo un marco espacial cuantitativo que recoge el papel de las redes comerciales y la idoneidad agrícola en la distribución de la población y el PIB (teniendo en cuenta los ajustes endógenos de la selección y el comercio de cultivos). Lo combino con datos geoespaciales detalladas para simular el impacto del cambio climático mediante previsiones de productividad agrícola en el 2080 de la FAO. Los resultados sugieren que el cambio climático podría conducir a grandes flujos migratorios dentro y entre los países de la SSA, con pérdidas económicas sustanciales. Además, la capacidad de ajustar la mezcla de producción entre diferentes sectores (cultivos y / o no agrícolas) o el elevado acceso a los mercados mitiga parcialmente los impactos del cambio climático en términos de salidas de población. Finalmente, un experimento relacionado con la adopción de tecnología a la agricultura muestra que la adopción tecnología en este sector podría revertir considerablemente los impactos negativos del cambio climático. El capítulo 3, “Especialización sectorial local en un mundo de calentamiento” estudia la evolución de la distribución geográfica de la economía y el clima mundiales en un entorno donde ambos elementos son endógenos entre sí. En particular, incorporo un enlace entre la actividad económica, las emisiones de carbono y el calentamiento global en un modelo de equilibrio espacial general dinámico donde la innovación espacial impulsa la dinámica de la evolución de la productividad y el crecimiento. Simulando la evolución de la economía mundial durante los próximos siglos, encuentro una concentración de actividad agrícola mucho mayor en las latitudes del norte (por ejemplo, Siberia) si se compara con un escenario sin calentamiento global. En términos agregados, el cambio climático conduce a diferentes patrones de evolución de la productividad sectorial, el crecimiento económico y la especialización en sectores agrícolas y urbanos, en línea con algunos de los resultados del capítulo 2. Un experimento relacionado con los costes comerciales muestra que fricciones más altas en el comercio distribuye la producción y los factores cercanos a la demanda, reduciendo la ventaja comparativa en regiones más periféricas del mundo. En general, mi tesis doctoral proporciona evidencias claras de las diferencias espaciales en las reacciones (y las consecuencias) del cambio climático en todo el mundo. También argumenta firmemente por la importancia del comercio como mecanismo económico clave detrás de la transmisión de este tipo de choque a los resultados económicos. En los tiempos actuales de globalización rápida, integración de mercados y expansión de redes comerciales, mi tesis muestra que acercar los mercados más aislados en las redes comerciales globales puede tener un papel clave en la mitigación de las consecuencias futuras del cambio climático.
This doctoral thesis answer questions related to the spatial impacts of climate change on economic outcomes. Composed by three independent chapters, it contributes to a literature at the intersection of economic development, economic geography, international trade, and climate change. In Chapter 1, “The Power of Markets: Impact of Desert Locust Invasions on Child Health”, I provide reduced-form evidence of the importance of (access to) markets on the transmission of climate change-led agricultural shocks to human capital accumulation in low-income agricultural economies. Overall, it argues for the importance of addressing local market reactions to this type of agricultural shock when designing public policy. It also conveys clear evidence of the vulnerability of agricultural, low-income economies, to short-term shocks induced by climate change. Hence, it motivates the subsequent chapters, in which I study the long-run economic reactions to and consequences of climate change. In particular, in Chapter 2, “Climate Change and Migration: the case of Africa”, I study the potential economic costs and migration responses to climate change in the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during the next decades. For that, I develop a quantitative spatial framework that captures the role of trade networks and agricultural suitability on the distribution of population and GDP accounting for endogenous adjustments of crop choice and trade. I combine it with detailed geospatial data from SSA to simulate the impact of climate change using forecasts of agricultural productivity in 2080 from FAO. My results suggest that climate change could lead to major migration flows within and across SSA countries, with substantial economic losses associated with it. Moreover, the capacity of adjusting the production mix across different sectors (crops and/or non-agricultural) or high access to markets partially mitigates the impacts of climate change in terms of population outflows. Finally, a policy experiment related to technology adoption in agriculture shows that the adoption of modern inputs in that sector could reverse considerably the negative impacts of climate change. My thesis is concluded with Chapter 3, “Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World”, where I study the evolution of the geographical distribution of the world’s economy and climate in a setup where both elements are endogenous to one another. In particular, I embed a mapping between the evolution of economic activity, carbon emissions, and global warming into a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model where spatial innovation drives the dynamics of the evolution of productivities and growth. By simulating the evolution of the world economy for the next centuries, I find a much higher concentration of agricultural activity in northern latitudes (e.g. Siberia and Northern China) if compared to a scenario without global warming. Moreover, in aggregate terms, climate change leads to different patterns of the evolution of sectoral--productivities, economic growth, and specialization into agriculture and urban sectors, in line with some of the results from Chapter 2. A policy experiment related to trade costs shows that higher frictions to trade reallocate production and factors close to the demand, by reducing the comparative advantage in more peripheral regions of the globe. Overall, my doctoral thesis provides clear evidence of the spatial differences in the reactions to (and consequences of) climate change throughout the globe. It also argues firmly for the importance of trade as a key economic mechanism behind the transmission of this sort of shock to economic outcomes. In the present times of fast globalization, integration of markets, and expansion of trade networks, my thesis shows that bringing the most isolated markets closer to the global trade networks can have a key role in mitigating the future consequences of climate change.

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences socio-économiques du changement climatique, en particulier ses effets sur le commerce international, les migrations internes en Inde et la propagation de la dengue au Brésil.Le premier chapitre analyse le lien entre changement climatique et flux de commerce bilatéraux, pour différents secteurs et produits, sur la période 1992-2014. Les variations de température ont un impact négatif sur le commerce bilatéral des pays, en moyenne, contrairement aux variations de précipitation. Lorsqu’on désagrège par produits, des effets négatifs et positifs surviennent, mais les effets négatifs dominent pour la température, en particulier pour les produits agricoles et manufacturiers, notamment l’industrie textile et la métallurgie, ce qui peut s’expliquer par des effets transitant par la productivité du travail. Les variations de précipitation ont aussi un impact hétérogène, mais avec un effet positif dominant. Les résultats suggèrent en outre que le changement climatique affecte les avantages comparatifs révélés des pays, en particulier pour les produits les plus sensibles au climat.Le second chapitre étudie l’impact du changement climatique sur les migrations entre les états indiens en 1991 et 2001. L’utilisation des données de recensement pour ces deux années permet d’étudier l’effet du climat précédant la migration. Des indicateurs météorologiques basés sur un « Indice de Précipitation Standardisé » (SPI) permettent de mesurer la fréquence, la durée et l’intensité des épisodes de sécheresse, ainsi qu’un excès éventuel de précipitations. Les résultats montrent que la fréquence des sécheresses augmente les taux de migrations au départ de l’état affecté. Cet impact est particulièrement fort pour les états agricoles. Les trois principaux canaux par lesquels transite l’effet des sècheresses sont le revenu moyen, l’agriculture et l’urbanisation des états.Le dernier chapitre quantifie l’impact du climat et de l’urbanisation sur le taux de prévalence de la dengue au sein des états brésiliens, sur la période 1992-2012. Les résultats mettent en évidence un impact positif du taux d’humidité de l’air sur la dengue, ainsi qu’une relation en cloche associant la température et la dengue. Par ailleurs, une augmentation de la densité de population de 1 % est associée à une hausse moyenne de la dengue de 2,5 à 3 %. Un meilleur accès à l’eau potable et une meilleure gestion des déchets diminuent en revanche l’incidence de la dengue. Un modèle à équations simultanées permet par ailleurs de montrer qu’il existe une causalité circulaire entre le revenu des ménages et la dengue. D’un côté, une hausse de 10 % de la part de la population touchée par la dengue y occasionne une baisse de 0,16 % du revenu moyen. De l’autre, cette baisse est associée à une plus grande prévalence de la dengue
In this dissertation, I study the impact of climate change on several economic outcomes, mainly on international trade, migration, and on vector-borne diseases. In the first chapter, I investigate the relationship between weather variations and bilateral trade flows at the country, sectoral and product levels, worldwide, and over the 1992-2014 period. I find a negative effect of temperature variations on bilateral trade at the country level. At the product level, both negative and positive effects arise, but the negative effect dominates. The effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, especially in the textile and metals sectors. Possible channels are the effect of temperature on output and labour productivity. Precipitation variations have also an effect on the product level, with the positive effect dominating for the affected products. The results suggest that weather variations also affect bilateral revealed comparative advantages, mainly for the weather sensitive products that I identify in the analysis. Moving to a long term analysis, the results suggest that temperature in the exporter country has a persistent effect that lasts several years. Furthermore, adaptation to climate change does not seem to changes the negative effects of temperature. The second chapter combines climate data with migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Censuses to investigate the impact of climate variability on internal migration. The use of census data makes it possible to test and compare the effect on migration of climatic factors prior to migration. Relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability are used to measure the frequency, duration and magnitude of drought and excess precipitation based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state increases inter-state migration in India. This effect is stronger in agricultural states, and in such states the magnitude of drought also increases inter-state migration significantly. Drought frequency has the strongest effect on rural-rural inter-state migration. In the third chapter, I measure the impact of weather and urbanization characteristics on dengue prevalence in Brazilian states during the 1992-2012 period. I find a positive effect of vapour pressure and a hump-shaped relationship between temperature and dengue. The results show that an increase in population density is likely to increase the dengue prevalence. Higher access to drinking water and waste management systems decrease dengue incidence. Additionally, higher immigration rates coming from states with high dengue incidence, increase the dengue prevalence in the destination state. Using a simultaneous equation model, I measure the double causality between household wage income and dengue prevalence. On the one hand, results show that, on average, a 10% increase in dengue rates is associated with a 0.16% decrease of household wage income. On the other hand, lower average household wage income is associated with a higher dengue rate

This thesis investigates the economic implications of climate change uncertainties. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature by exploring various aspects of how uncertainty can and should be integrated in economic assessments of climate impacts and what this entails for policy-making. For several reasons, including analytical tractability and the difficulties of accommodating uncertainty in individual and social decision-making, the full scale of climate change uncertainties is often artificially reduced in economic assessments of climate change, e.g. through the use of best estimates, averages or mid-point scenarios. However, the impacts of future climate change on humankind are highly uncertain and require full investigation. The approach taken in this thesis has therefore been to ask new questions related to the economic implications of climate change uncertainties and to address each problem using innovative methods, which allow a more accurate characterization of the uncertainties at stake and of their potential interactions. This thesis comprises four standalone chapters (Chapter 2 to 5). The first chapter (Chapter 2) investigates how uncertainty about the benefits of climate mitigation, about future economic growth and about the relationship between these uncertainties affects the rate at which we should discount the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions today. The second chapter (Chapter 3) examines the impact of including the permafrost carbon feedback in the DICE Integrated Assessment Model on the social cost of carbon and on the optimal global mitigation policy. Whereas the first two chapters rely on the use of an Integrated Assessment Model, the final two chapters are based on econometric methods applied to weather and climate variables. The third chapter (Chapter 4) explores the impacts of droughts on regional economic growth in the United States. The last chapter (Chapter 5) examines the implications of temperature on inflation and central banks’ policy interest rates.

Biophysikalische Veränderungen der Produktionsbedingungen zwingen Landwirte zur Anpassung ihrer klimasensiblen Produktionsprozesse. Eine ökonomische Bewertung dieser strategischen Alternativen ist angesichts der Unsicherheiten durch den Klimawandel von hoher Bedeutung. Mit nur wenigen empirischen Studien befindet sich die Forschung in diesem Bereich jedoch noch im Anfangsstadium. Die vorliegende Studie zielt auf die Entwicklung eines integrierten ökonomischen Rahmens für die Bewertung von Anpassungsoptionen ab. Die theoretische und ökonometrische Analyse wird dabei anhand (1) einer prozessorientierten Analyse von Produktionsverfahren und Anpassungsoptionen auf Basis der Theorie der Betriebslehre sowie (2) eines hedonischen (Ricardianischen) Ansatzes, basierend auf der Theorie zu Landrenten und Veränderungen des Nettobetriebseinkommens, in Abhängigkeit von klimatischen Variablen durchgeführt. Die Analyse von Input-Output-Verhältnissen der Reisproduktion basiert auf einer umfassenden Befragung von 300 „klimaangepassten“ Landwirten über acht Jahre in Bangladesch. Es werden insgesamt 14 Anpassungsoptionen für zwei Anbauperioden von Reis identifiziert. Eine Kombination der Methoden ermöglicht dabei drei Vorteile: (1) Eine geringere Ressourcennutzung in Kombination mit einer moderaten produktiven Leistung und einem hohen Nettoeinkommen, (2) eine Verringerung von Treibhausgasemissionen sowie (3) einen klimaangepassten Betrieb. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich Temperaturänderungen in beiden Perioden negativ auf das Betriebseinkommen auswirken. Niederschlagsänderungen sind in allen Modellen signifikant und positiv zu bewerten. Die Studie zeigt eindeutig, dass eine sukzessive Anpassung das Betriebsergebnis signifikant erhöhen und zu einer Steigerung des Betriebseinkommens beitragen kann. Durch die Modellierung der Auswirkungen verschiedener Szenarien des Klimawandels auf das Nettobetriebseinkommen werden die nachteiligen Effekte auf zukünftige Betriebseinkommen aufgezeigt.
The bio-physical change in the production environment has directed farmers towards strategic alternatives for farming practices. The economic assessment of these adaptation options is of great importance in facing the uncertainty of climate change. However, the economic assessment of farm-level adaptation options remains in its infancy with few empirical studies. The study framework analyzes economic implications of alternative farming activities relating to climate change in several dimensions. The theoretical and empirical economic approach of the study can be characterized in two distinct ways: (1) the process-based approach following farm management theory by production performance analysis and the appraisal of adaptation and (2) the hedonic (Ricardian) approach based on land rent theory and the change in net farm income in relation to climatic variables. The analysis of input-output relations of rice farming was done based on an intensive survey of 300 adapted farmers in Bangladesh over 8 years at different climate thresholds. The study assesses different adaptation options for two rice growing seasons, namely Boro and Amon. These options are (1) low resource use, moderate productive performance and high farm net income, (2) minimum GHG production and (3) farms coping with changing climatic conditions. The study reveals that marginal impacts of temperature on farm net income are negative for all seasons. The marginal impacts of rainfall were found to be positive and significant for all models in the study. It is also evident from the analysis that successive adaptation significantly increases farm productivity and contributes to the revival of farm revenue up to a threshold level. Finally, based on estimated climate variability models of farm net income, the study presents a model that simulates according to future climate change scenarios. It indicates adverse effects of climate change on future farm income.

Dans un contexte de changement climatique actuel et futur, se traduisantnotamment par un assèchement déjà observé en Méditerranée, cette thèse seconcentre sur l’étude de la variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)des événements de très longs épisodes secs (eTLES) hivernaux (septembreavril)dans le bassin méditerranéen. Une méthodologie originale a été développéeau cours de cette thèse pour appréhender les eTLES comme desévénements climatiques singuliers, caractérisés par des critères de localisation,de durée et d’extension spatiale.Sur la période contemporaine (1957-2013), 76 eTLES ont été détectésdans le bassin méditerranéen. Ces événements sont répartis en 4 principalesconfigurations géographiques : Nord-Est, Ouest, Dispersés & Restreints etSud-Est. Les configurations de types Nord-Est et Ouest sont associées àdes blocages anticycloniques localisés à environ 1 000 km au nord-ouestdes secteurs principalement affectés par les eTLES, favorisant un ciel dégagéet l’absence de précipitations. Les configurations de types Dispersés& Restreints et Sud-Est sont particulières, car la première est caractériséecomme étant une classe résiduelle regroupant des eTLES à faible extensionspatiale répartis dans l’ensemble du bassin, la seconde est caractérisée pardes eTLES saisonniers qui s’insèrent dans la continuité de l’été sec observéà l’est du bassin méditerranéen.Les grands régimes de circulation atmosphérique du domaine Euro-Atlantique montrent un certain contrôle sur les eTLES. Ainsi, la phasepositive de l’oscillation nord-atlantique (NAO+) est le seul régime à êtreclairement favorable au développement d’eTLES sur la quasi-totalité du bassin.Le régime est-atlantique (EA) ne montre pas de contrôle sur les eTLES,atlantic ridge (AR) et la phase négative de l’Oscillation Nord-Atlantique(NAO-) sont deux régimes généralement défavorables aux eTLES. Cependant,des eTLES sont pourtant associés aux régimes AR, EA et NAO-. Pourcela, il faut que ces trois régimes de circulation soient associés à des pressionsatmosphériques légèrement plus élevées au nord-ouest des secteursimpactés par les eTLES, comparativement à leur climatologie respective.Les longues séquences des régimes AR, EA et NAO+, représentatives d’unecertaine stabilité atmosphérique durable dans le temps, sont préférentiellementassociées aux eTLES, contrairement aux courtes séquences de ces troisrégimes. À l’inverse, les longues séquences du régime NAO-, renforçant les basses pressions atmosphériques sur l’Europe et le bassin méditerranéen,sont peu associées aux eTLES.Bien que les deux modèles ALADIN52 et LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 affichentdes résultats différents à plusieurs niveaux, ils s’accordent tout demême à montrer que les eTLES devraient être de plus en plus longs d’icià l’horizon 2100, de façon encore plus marquée pour la trajectoire RCP8.5que RCP4.5. Une analyse multi-modèles comprenant 12 simulations CMIP5montre qu’en moyenne par saison, la pression réduite au niveau de la meraurait tendance à augmenter sur l’océan Atlantique, au large des côtes françaiseset sur le centre du bassin méditerranéen, de façon robuste pour latrajectoire RCP8.5. À l’inverse, la fréquence et la durée des séquences des 4régimes de circulation atmosphérique ne semblent pas être amenées à évoluerd’ici à l’horizon 2100.Une étude est enfin menée pour constater les impacts des eTLES surla production agricole en Espagne. Le nombre de jours d’eTLES impactedavantage les rendements d’orge, de blé et d’avoine (espèces d’hiver et cultivéesau travers d’une agriculture pluviale) que les simples ratios de jourssecs et les cumuls de pluie en Espagne. Une étude de cas réalisée sur deuxsaisons ayant reçu des cumuls de pluie comparables montre qu’en plus desrendements, un eTLES provoque une baisse significative de l’humidité dessols et du débit du fleuve Èbre
In the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with anticyclonic conditionslocated approximately 1 000 km northwestern to the areas affected by theVLDSe, favoring a clear sky and no precipitations. The Scattered Localizedand South-East configurations are special: the first one is characterized asa residual class grouping VLDSe with small spatial extent and distributedthroughout the entire basin, and the second one is characterized by seasonalVLDSe which are the continuation of the dry summer observed in the eastof the Mediterranean basin.Euro-Atlantic weather regimes have some control on the VLDSe. Thepositive phase of the north-atlantic oscillation regime (NAO+) is the onlyone that is clearly favorable to the development of VLDSe on almost the entirebasin. The east-atlantic regime (EA) does not show any control on theVLDSe, and the atlantic ridge (AR) and the negative phase of the northatlanticoscillation (NAO-) regimes are generally detrimental to VLDSe. However,some VLDSe can sometimes be associated with AR, EA and NAOregimes.This requires these three weather regimes to be associated withslightly higher atmospheric pressure northwest of the areas impacted bythe VLDSe, compared to their respective climatology. Long duration of theAR, EA and NAO+ regimes, which are coupled with sustained atmosphericstability, are preferentially associated with VLDSe, in contrast to the shortduration. Conversely, the long duration of the NAO- regime, reinforcingthe low atmospheric pressure on Europe and the Mediterranean basin, areweakly associated with VLDSe.Although the two climate models ALADIN52 and LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 differ in several respects, they agree in that VLDSe should be longer by 2100,especially in the RCP8.5 trajectory. A multi-model analysis with 12 CMIP5simulations shows that wintertime sea-level pressure tends to increase in theAtlantic Ocean, off the French coast and in the central the Mediterraneanbasin for the RCP8.5 trajectory. Conversely, the frequency and duration ofthe 4 weather regimes do not show significant trends until the end of the21st century.Finally, a study is carried out to assess the impact of VLDSe on agriculturalproduction in Spain. The number of VLDSe days has a larger impactson the yields of barley, wheat and oats (winter species and cultivatedthrough rainfed agriculture) than the simple ratio of dry days or seasonalrainfall amounts in Spain. A two-season case study, based on seasons withcomparable rainfall amounts, shows that in addition to yields, a VLDSecauses a significant decrease in soil moisture and in the Ebro River flow

The rising temperature of the earth due to climate change has shown to alter the variations of hydro-climate variables, including their intensities, frequencies and durations. Extreme events such as floods are, in particular, susceptible to any disturbances in climate cycles. As such it is important to provide policymakers with sufficient knowledge about the probable impacts of climate change on hydrologic extremes and most importantly on floods, which have the highest impacts on the societies. For this reason analysis of hydro-climate extremes is commonly performed using data at each site (or grid cell), however due to the limited number of extreme events, these analyses are not robust. Current methods, such as the regional frequency analysis, which combine data from different locations are incapable of incorporating the spatial structure of the data as well as other explanatory variables, and do not explicitly, assess the uncertainties. In this thesis the spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed for hydro-climate extreme analyses using data recorded at each site or grid. This method combines limited number of data from different locations, estimates the uncertainties in different stages of the hierarchy, incorporates additional explanatory variables (covariates), and can be used to estimate extreme events at un-gaged sites. The first project develops a spatial hierarchical Bayesian method to model the extreme runoffs over two spatial domains in the Columbia River Basin, U.S. The model is also employed to estimate floods with different return levels within time slices of fifteen years in order to detect possible trends in runoff extremes. Continuing on the extreme analysis, the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the whole Pacific Northwest (PNW). This study aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes will change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes, and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Given the increasing number of climate model simulations the goal of the third project is to provide a multi-model ensemble average of hydro-climate extremes and characterize the inherent uncertainties. Outputs from several regional climate models provided by NARCCAP are considered for the analysis in all seasons. Three combination scenarios are defined and compared for multi-modeling of extreme runoffs. The biases of each scenario are calculated and the scenario with the least bias is selected for projecting seasonal runoff extremes. The aim of the fourth project is to quantify and compare the uncertainties regarding global climate models to the ones from the hydrologic model structures in climate change impact studies. Various methods have been proposed to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) climatological variables to the fine scale regional variables; however fewer studies have been focused on the selection of GCM predictors. Additionally, the results obtained from one downscaling technique may not be robust and the uncertainties related to the downscaling scheme are not realized. To address these issues, in the fifth study we employed Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for predictor selection which determines spatially independent GCM variables (as discussed in Appendix A). Cross validation of the independent components is employed to find the predictor combination that describes the regional precipitation over the upper Willamette basin with minimum error. These climate variables along with the observed precipitation are used to calibrate three downscaling models: Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).

This thesis seeks to advance our understanding of climatic influence on economic outcomes. The approach taken places emphasis on understanding the channels and mechanisms through which weather has an effect, and through which climate change could have an effect, on economic behaviour – rather than estimating the impact of future climate change – to better inform the design and implementation of policy. This thesis is composed of four papers that adopt this new paradigm, providing new insights into how weather affects economic outcomes today, how economic agents respond to and manage the economic consequences of changes in their natural environment, and providing explicit mechanisms through which the impacts of, and adaptation to, climate change could affect economic outcomes in the future.

Climate change is a major environmental threat and likely one of the most important challenges of our time. In particular, climate extremes –such as heat waves– can have a significant negative effect on society. Yet, many impacts of climate change are poorly understood and binding international climate change agreements are notoriously hard to reach. This work deals with the economics of climate change in three separate essays. The first one introduces a new methodology to estimate the impacts of climate extremes on public health. The second utilizes this methodology to assess the impacts of several climate change scenarios on Europe. The third explores a way to increase cooperation on climate change mitigation policies through explicit communication of the uncertainty of future climate change impacts. In general, human mortality shows an oscillatory pattern on top of a nonlinear trend. It tends to be highest in winter and lowest in summer. The nonlinear trend follows changes in health policies, economic growth rates, and other institutional factors. The first essays shows that singular spectrum analysis can be used for the estimation of this base rate mortality and thus allows to isolate the impacts of climate extremes on human mortality. This methodology is an improvement over approaches based on fixed effects or classic spectral analysis. It makes it possible to extend climate impact analysis to regions and countries for which there are no detailed data from hospital records as only coarse monthly data on mortality are needed. The danger of climate change lies not necessarily in the shift in average temperatures, but more so the increase in frequency of extreme heat events. Yet, while heat waves become more common, cold spells become less frequent. As both types of extreme temperature events increase human morbidity and mortality, the net effect of this shift is unknown. The second essay finds that a scenario of moderate warming can have a positive net effect on some European countries, creating winners and losers. In contrast –severe warming as a result of failed climate change mitigation policies– affects all examined European countries in a negative way. There would be no winners, just losers. As a result of the uncertainty associated with it, climate change poses a different challenge than other social dilemma situations: The negative effects of climate change do not necessarily take place incrementally. While this should be a focal point for policy makers, the costs of climate change tend to be presented within an expected utility framework. Yet, the potential behavioral reactions to this uncertainty are –so far– neither explored nor accounted for in game-theoretic models of climate coalition building. The third essay finds that cooperation in a public goods game can be increased when the uncertainty is communicated explicitly. This means that uncertainty should not be hidden behind expected costs and benefits, but rather be acknowledged when the goal is to form a climate change mitigation agreement.

One out of every three workers on the planet is employed in agriculture. Consequently, major changes to the way that agriculture is practiced will have outsized effects on society. This dissertation focuses on technology and climate change, two key variables that will exert increasing influence on the rural sector and broader patterns of economic development. While the implementation of new technologies to increase crop productivity will be essential in satisfying rising global food demand, shifts in global climate may undermine those productivity gains in terms of both agronomic and labor market output. Chapter 2 exploits a quasi-experimental research design to assess how crop productivity gains resulting from a new technology affect gender wage disparities in agricultural labor markets. Using high-frequency temperature data merged with nationally representative time use data from Indian workers, Chapter 3 estimates a labor supply response function to temperature shocks that informs projected labor market effects under climate change. Chapter 4 demonstrates that a very parsimonious statistical model offers accurate out-of-sample predictions and provides a discussion on modeling weather's role in agriculture and the current state of adaptation research.