Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Climate Change Adaptation Measures'

Doutoramento em Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente
As cidades, áreas que albergam cerca de 70% da população europeia, enfrentam hoje um conjunto de desafios associados a alterações do metabolismo urbano, que num contexto de alteração climática (AC), afectam o microclima urbano e a qualidade do ar (QA). Compreender a interação entre as AC, qualidade do ar e fluxos urbanos de calor (FUC) é um tópico de investigação emergente, reconhecido como área de interesse para a definição e implementação de políticas locais. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é promover uma avaliação integrada das interações entre medidas de resiliência urbana e as AC, e respectiva influência no microclima urbano, QA e FUC, tendo como caso de estudo a cidade do Porto (Portugal). Pretende-se ainda impulsionar o desempenho dos modelos numéricos para que estes representem realisticamente os fenómenos físicos que ocorrem nas áreas urbanas. Para atingir este objetivo, o sistema de modelos WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para a área de estudo para avaliar a influência de diferentes níveis de área urbanizada nas trocas de calor entre a superficie e a atmosfera. O modelo foi validado mediante a comparação dos seus resultados com dados medidos obtidos em campanhas de monitorização de fluxos. A influência das variáveis meteorológicas nos FUC, e a forma como estas, por sua vez, são influenciadas pela superfície urbana foi também avaliada. Para tal, o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para 1-ano representativo de um período de clima presente (1986-2005) e de clima futuro de médio prazo (2046-2065). O cenário climático futuro foi projetado tendo por base o cenário RCP8.5. Esta análise permitiu quantificar e mapear os efeitos das AC nos FUC na cidade do Porto. Face à necessidade corrente de aumentar a resiliência urbana a futuros eventos meteorológicos extremos (e.g. ondas de calor), o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi ainda aplicado (com uma resolução espacial de 200 m) para avaliar a influência de medidas de resiliência nos FUC. Conhecendo a importância da morfologia urbana para as características do seu próprio clima, um conjunto de parameterizações urbanas (LSM, SUEWS e UCM) foram analisados para área de estudo, por forma a obter uma representação realista das características urbanas no modelo WRF e, consequentemente, obter um melhor desempenho na modelação da QA à escala local. Os resultados revelaram que o modelo UCM é a parameterização urbana que melhor representa os fluxos turbulentos de calor, a temperatura e velocidade do vento à superfície. Como resultado, o modelo CFD VADIS, inicializado pelo modelo WRF-UCM, foi aplicado com uma elevada resolução espacial (3 m) a um bairro típico da cidade do Porto. As simulações realizadas permitiram caracterizar o estado atual da QA na área de estudo, bem como avaliar a influência de diferentes medidas de resiliência nos padrões de velocidade do vento e na concentração de poluentes atmosféricos (PM10, NOX, CO e CO2). Este trabalho constitui uma ferramenta científica inovadora no que diz respeito ao conhecimento dos processos físicos que ocorrem à escala urbana, proporcionando uma visão integradora entre AC, QA e FUC. Estes resultados são relevantes para o apoio à decisão política do que respeita à implementação de estratégias que permitam aumentar a resiliência urbana, nas suas diversas vertentes, a um clima em mudança
Cities, home of about 70% of the European population, are facing important challenges related to changes in urban structure and its metabolism, and to pressures induced by climate change (CC) effects, which are affecting urban microclimate and air quality. The better understanding of the interactions between CC, air quality and urban surface energy balance (USEB) is an emerging priority for research and policy. The main objective of the current study is to provide an integrated assessment of the interaction between resilience measures and CC effects, and its influence on the urban microclimate and air quality as well as on the USEB, having as case study the city of Porto (Portugal). The ultimate goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical modelling to better represent the physical processes occurring in urban areas. For this purpose, the relevant parameters to both USEB and air quality were analysed. The WRF-SUEWS modelling setup was applied to the study area to assess the influence of different levels of urbanization on the surface-atmosphere exchanges. To validate the modelling setup, the results were compared with measurements carried out on field campaigns. The way of how the meteorological variables affect the USEB and how, in turn, these variables are themselves affected by urban surface was also assessed. The modelling setup was applied for 1-year period statistically representative of a present (1986-2005) and medium-term future (2046-2065) climate. The climate projection was produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. This analysis gives insights of how the urban-surface exchanges will be affected by CC, allowing the mapping of the FUC over the study area. As result of the need of increase cities resilience to future extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves), the WRF-SUEWS model (with a spatial resolution of 200 m), was applied to Porto city to evaluate the influence of a set of resilience measures on the USEB. Knowing the importance of urban surfaces to its own microclimate, a set of urban parameterization schemes (LSM, SUEWS and UCM) were analysed for the study area, to achieve a more accurate representation of urban features in the WRF model and, in consequence, to improve the capability of air quality modelling at urban/local scale. The results point out that the UCM is the urban parameterization that provides a more realistic representation of the turbulent energy fluxes and the near-surface air temperatures and wind speed. As result, a CFD modelling (VADIS), forced by WRF-UCM, was used to provide a set of numerical simulations with a high spatial resolution (3 m) over a typical neighbourhood in the Porto city. These simulations allow the characterization of the current air quality status over the study area, as well as the assessment of the influence of different resilience measures in the wind flow and air pollutants dispersion (PM10, NOX, CO and CO2). Overall, this research work is a step forward in understanding the physics of urban environments, providing also a linkage between CC, air quality and USEB. These findings are highly advantageous to support policy makers and stakeholders helping them to choose the best strategies to mitigate extreme weather events and air pollution episodes and so increase cities resilience to a future climate.

In most of the developing countries, small scale farmers (SSFs) are usually the primary agricultural producers of staple crop. Furthermore, they highly depend on rainfall for their rain-fed agricultural production. SSFs have limited capacity to adapt to extreme climate variability, thus rendering them to be among the most vulnerable to climate change. Some recent studies show that agricultural production and productivity is being negatively impacted by climate change and variability in most parts of Southern Africa. This is likely to continue for decades into the future, unless corrective or adaptation measures are implemented to reduce the impact on agriculture. Conservation Agriculture (CA) is one of the climate change and weather variability adaptation measures being promoted for SSFs in Kalomo District of Zambia. CA is not only being promoted to improve production and productivity for food security for the majority rural population, but also as an adaptation measure for sustainable agricultural production. The present study analysed the CA practices being promoted in Kalomo district of southern Zambia and the associated challenges in the management and implementation, as well as, how best these challenges can be addressed. Semi-structured interviews and literature review were used as methodologies of data collection for the study. The findings of the study indicate that among the three principles of CA, minimum tillage is mostly practiced compared to crop rotation and retention of crop residue. Within minimum tillage, ripping was found to be practiced on a larger scale compared to making basins. The major challenges include planning and human resource development, financial resource and policy constraints and cultural barriers to adoption of CA.

The thesis work has studied mainly autonomous adaptation measures used by local communities against natural hazards. In course of time the climate change will make these hazards frequent and severe challenging peoples capacity to cope with them. The work is conducted as a case study in nine coastal agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh. Coastal zones have socio-economical potential but are at the same time vulnerable to destructive effects of climate change in agriculture, human settlements, health, ecosystem and security. In collaboration with the Department of Environmental sciences in Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh, adaptation measures practiced at study areas have been gathered and then evaluated using a rated set of eleven criteria which has been derived from principles of sustainable adaptation. As a result of this study several adaptation measures show high sustainability, some medium but most of them with a low sustainability in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and implementation ability. The conclusion is to enhance local adaptive capacity in terms of its hazards context and to modify adaptation measures to be more sustainable.

Approaches to address climate change as part of a larger strategy where climate benefitsare only a part of a larger set of other benefits, like sustainable development benefits, arelimited to mitigation. The need for “[a] structured but flexible approach to adaptation”sought by developing countries requires a similar consideration in order to realize whatelements of adaptation could be ‘structured’ and what elements ‘flexible.’ Applyingprogram theory, this work explores ways in which adaptation to climate change mayemerge as a consequence of development policies. This is applied to the experience ofagriculture in Mozambique to model policy implementation in response to the 2007 foodcrisis using concepts from programme and strategy theory to examine how a chain ofactivities obtain results not initially targeted, exemplifying how adaptation to climatechange can emerge as a co-benefit of development polices. The case study indicates thatadaptation and development interact better when policies are designed to integratedifferent needs and are sustained not just by those directly implementing them, and thatgenerating adaptation co-benefits will be different according to the scales and level inwhich policies apply. The study concludes with suggestions for multilevel mechanismfor integrating adaptation through policy instruments containing policies that throughstrategic rearrangement can achieve different results. Future research should furtherconsider the implications of applying current international adaptation instruments towider portfolios to assess the possibilities of creating a mechanism for mainstreamingadaptation within the current political constrains.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

Climate change effects are getting more evident year by year. Athens is specially affected by climate change related shocks, especially by poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Every year climate shocks threatens and worsens the situation in the city. The municipality of Athens, together with the European Investment Bank and EQO-NIXUS (consulting company) have undertaken a project in order to increase the resilience and the mitigation and adaptation measures of the city, taking as case study 5 public buildings located in different areas of the centre of the city. This project is in line with the Athens Resilience Strategy drawn by the Municipality of Athens in order to integrate new ways to prepare and protect the city from future shocks and stresses. This study aims to investigate and propose mitigation and adaptation measures that could be potentially applied into the 5 selected public buildings in order to improve the energy efficiency and the resilience towards heat waves, flooding and pollution of the air. A literature review study has been performed in order to look for good practices worldwide in terms of energy efficiency and climate mitigation and adaptation in order to find the best measures that could be applied in the 5 selected buildings. Finally, a multi-criteria decision analysis has been executed to prioritise which measures result to be more relevant for each specific building. The study shows that, in overall, energy efficiency and raise of public awareness are the most relevant measures that can be potentially applied in the buildings in order to tackle the climate shocks that threatens Athens. Finally, if the measures are applied into the buildings and the resilience and energy efficiency measures are improved, this study could be replicated to other buildings of Athens in order to achieve the 2030 strategy plan set by the municipality of Athens.
Effekterna av klimatförändringen blir alltmer tydliga. Greklands huvudstad Aten påverkas exempelvis av försämrad luftkvalitet, översvämningar och värmeböljor och extrema klimatrelaterade händelser förvärrar situationen i staden. Atens kommun har tillsammans med Europeiska investeringsbanken och EQO-NIXUS (ett privat konsultföretag) genomfört ett projekt för att öka motståndskraften mot klimatförändringens effekter, genom anpassningsåtgärder, där fem offentliga byggnader i olika delar av Atens centrum studeras. Projektet är relaterat till Atens resiliensstrategi som handlar om hur staden ska integrera nya sätt förbereda och skydda staden och dess invånare från framtida extrema händelser och påfrestningar. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka och föreslå anpassningsåtgärder som potentiellt kan tillämpas i de fem olika offentliga byggnaderna för att förbättra energieffektiviteten och resiliensen mot värmeböljor, översvämningar och luftföroreningar. En litteraturstudie har genomförts för att identifiera globala, goda exempel när det gäller energieffektivitet och anpassning till ett förändrat klimat som potentiellt kan tillämpas i de fem byggnaderna. Slutligen har en multikriterieanalys med flera kriterier genomförts för att prioritera vilka åtgärder som är mest relevanta för varje specifik byggnad. Studien visar att energieffektivitet och ökning av allmänhetens medvetenhet totalt sett är de mest relevanta åtgärderna som potentiellt kan tillämpas i byggnaderna för att hantera klimatförändringar. Slutligen, om dessa åtgärder tillämpas och resiliensen och energieffektivitetsåtgärderna förbättras, skulle denna studie kunna vara relevant även för andra byggnader i Aten och därmed bidra till uppfyllelsen av stadens 2030-strategi.

A key challenge for sustainable urban development is to deal with the effects of climate change. To approach this issue, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), i.e. the use of ecosystem services for climate adaptation, has been promoted by both scholars and practitioners. In this context, the thesis addresses two research questions: how EbA is included in strategic climate adaptation planning and how EbA is implemented in practice. To tackle these topics, the study uses a multiple case study design, where the process from strategic planning to its implementation is investigated in two Northern European cities: Copenhagen and Malmö. To collect in-depth data, qualitative methods were used: a document analysis and semi-structured interviews with planning officials were conducted. The findings of the study show that there is a high degree of awareness of the different EbA measures, their potential role to address climate change effects and their co-benefits in climate adaptation plans. However, the practical implementation of the plans was executed only at a project-based scale to address some climate change impacts rather than holistically and on a regional level. The main EbA measure that was used was the expansion and transformation of public green space. The thesis concludes that a more comprehensive approach concerning the use of EbA is needed and further mainstreaming is highly required.
En viktig utmaning för hållbar stadsutveckling är att adressera effekterna av de stundande klimatförändringar. För att ta sig an denna fråga har användningen av ekosystembaserad anpassning (EbA), dvs. användningen av ekosystemtjänster för klimatanpassning, främjats av både forskare och utövare. I detta sammanhang behandlar studien två forskningsfrågor: hur EbA ingår i strategisk klimatanpassningsplanering och hur EbA implementeras i praktiken. Studien innehåller en fallstudie- design, där processen från strategisk planering till dess genomförande undersöks i två nordeuropeiska städer: Köpenhamn och Malmö. För att samla in data användes två kvalitativa metoder: en dokumentanalys och semistrukturerade intervjuer med tjänstepersoner på kommuner. Resultaten från studien visar att det finns en hög grad av medvetenhet om de olika EbA åtgärderna, deras potentiella roll för att hantera klimatförändringseffekter och deras synergier i klimatanpassningsplaner. Det praktiska genomförandet av planerna utfördes endast i en projektbaserad skala för att ta med vissa klimatförändringseffekter snarare än på ett holistiskt vis och på en större regional nivå. Den viktigaste EbA åtgärden som användes var utbyggnaden eller omvandlingen av de offentliga grönytorna. Sammanfattningsvis har studien visat på att det finns behov av ett mer heltäckande tillvägagångssätt och ytterligare integrering beträffande användandet av EbA krävs.

[EN] Adaptation to the multiple facets of global change challenges the conventional means of sustainably planning and managing water resources at the river basin scale. Numerous demand or supply management options are available, from which adaptation measures need to be selected in a context of high uncertainty of future conditions. Given the interdependency of water users, agreements need to be found at the local level to implement the most effective adaptation measures. Therefore, this thesis develops an approach combining economics and water resources engineering to select a cost-effective programme of adaptation measures in the context of climate change uncertainty, and to define an equitable allocation of the cost of the adaptation plan between the stakeholders involved. A framework is developed to integrate inputs from the two main approaches commonly used to plan for adaptation. The first, referred to as "top-down", consists of a modelling chain going from global greenhouse gases emission scenarios to local hydrological models used to assess the impact of climate change on water resources. Conversely, the second approach, called "bottom-up", starts from assessing vulnerability at the local level to then identify adaptation measures used to face an uncertain future. Outcomes from these two approaches are integrated to select a cost-effective combination of adaptation measures through a least-cost optimization model developed at the river basin scale. The model is then used to investigate the trade-offs between different planning objectives defined in terms of environmental flow requirements, irrigated agriculture development, and the cost of the programme of measures. The performances of a programme of measures are finally assessed under different climate projections to identify robust and least-regret adaptation measures. The issue of allocating the cost of the adaptation plan is considered through two complementary perspectives. The outcome of a negotiation process between the stakeholders is modelled through the implementation of cooperative game theory to define cost allocation scenarios. These results are compared with cost allocation rules based on social justice principles to provide contrasted insights into a negotiation process. This innovative framework has been applied in a Mediterranean case study in the Orb River basin (France). Mid-term climate projections, downscaled from 9 General Climate Models, are used to assess the uncertainty associated with climate projections. Demand evolution scenarios have been developed to project agricultural and urban water demands on the 2030 time horizon. The least-cost river basin optimization model developed in GAMS allows the cost-effective selection of a programme of measures from a catalogue of 462 supply and demand management measures. Nine cost allocation scenarios based on different social justice principles have been discussed through face-to-face semi-structured interviews with 15 key informants and compared with solution concepts from cooperative game theory for a 3-player game defined at the river basin scale. The interdisciplinary framework developed in this thesis combines economics and water resources engineering methods, establishing a promising means of bridging the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches and supporting the creation of cost-effective and equitable adaptation plans at the local level.
[ES] La adaptación a los múltiples aspectos del cambio global supone un reto para los enfoques convencionales de planificación y gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos a escala de cuenca. Numerosas opciones de gestión de la demanda o de la oferta están disponibles, de entre las cuales es necesario seleccionar medidas de adaptación en un contexto de elevada incertidumbre sobre las condiciones futuras. Dadas las interdependencias existentes entre los usuarios del agua a nivel local, hace falta buscar acuerdos a escala de cuenca para implementar las medidas de adaptación más eficaces. Por este motivo, esta tesis desarrolla una metodología que, combinando economía e ingeniería de los recursos hídricos, busca seleccionar un programa de medidas coste-eficaz frente a las incertidumbres del cambio climático, y asimismo definir un reparto justo del coste de la adaptación entre los actores implicados. El marco metodológico ha sido desarrollado para integrar contribuciones de los dos principales enfoques utilizados para la planificación de la adaptación. El primero, denominado descendente ("top-down"), consiste en una cadena de modelación que va desde los escenarios de emisiones de gases efecto invernadero a nivel global hasta los modelos hidrológicos utilizados a nivel local para evaluar así el impacto del cambio climático sobre los recursos hídricos. Por el contrario, el segundo enfoque denominado ascendente ("bottom-up") empieza por evaluar la vulnerabilidad del sistema a nivel local para después identificar medidas de adaptación frente a un futuro incierto. Los resultados de los métodos mencionados previamente se han integrado con el fin de seleccionar una combinación coste-eficaz de medidas de adaptación a través de un modelo de optimización a menor coste a escala de cuenca. El modelo se utiliza para investigar las soluciones de compromiso ("trade-offs") entre diversos objetivos de planificación como son los caudales ecológicos necesarios, el desarrollo del regadío y el coste del programa de medidas. Seguidamente, se han evaluado los programas de adaptación frente a varias condiciones climáticas para definir así un programa de medidas robusto y de arrepentimiento mínimo frente al cambio climático. En la última parte se aborda el problema del reparto justo de los costes del plan de adaptación, entendiendo que esto es una manera de favorecer su implementación. Para ello, se han modelado los resultados de un proceso de negociación entre los diferentes actores mediante escenarios de reparto basados en la teoría de juegos cooperativos. Posteriormente, se han comparado estos resultados con otras reglas de reparto de costes basadas en principios de justicia social, proporcionando así un punto de vista diferente al proceso de negociación. Este novedoso enfoque ha sido aplicado a una cuenca mediterránea, la cuenca del rio Orb (Francia). Para ello, se han empleado proyecciones climáticas a medio-plazo de datos reescalados de 9 Modelos de Circulación Global. Además, se han desarrollado escenarios de evolución de la demanda en los sectores urbano y agrícola para el horizonte de planificación de 2030. El modelo de optimización a menor coste a escala de cuenca desarrollado en GAMS permite seleccionar un programa de medidas, de entre las 462 medidas de gestión de la oferta o de la demanda. Nueve escenarios de reparto de costes basados en diferentes principios de justicia social han sido debatidos con informantes clave mediante entrevistas y comparados con conceptos de solución de la teoría de juegos cooperativos, considerando un juego de 3 jugadores a escala de cuenca. El marco interdisciplinario desarrollado durante esta tesis combina métodos de economía y de ingeniería de los recursos hídricos de manera prometedora y permite integrar los enfoques "top-down" y "bottom-up", contribuyendo a definir un plan de adaptación coste-eficaz y justo a nivel local.
[CAT] L'adaptació als múltiples aspectes del canvi global implica un repte per als enfocaments convencionals de planificació i gestió sostenible dels recursos hídrics a escala de conca. Existeixen nombroses opcions de gestió de la demanda y de la oferta. De entre elles, cal seleccionar mesures d'adaptació en un context d'incertesa elevada sobre les condicions futures. Donades les interaccions entre els usuaris de l'aigua a nivell local, és necessari buscar acords a escala de conca per tal d'implementar les mesures d'adaptació més eficaces. Per aquest motiu, la tesi desenvolupa una metodologia que, mitjançant la combinació d'economia i enginyeria dels recursos hídrics, siga adient per seleccionar un programa de mesures cost-eficaç per a fer front a les incerteses del canvi climàtic i, a més a més, definir un repartiment just del cost d'adaptació entre els actors implicats. El marc metodològic ha estat desenvolupat amb el fi de permetre integrar contribucions del principals enfocaments que s'utilitzen per a la planificació de l'adaptació. El primer, que es denomina descendent ("top-down"), consisteix a una cadena de modelació que va des dels escenaris d'emissions de gas d'efecte hivernacle a nivell global fins als models hidrològics a nivell local per avaluar l'impacte del canvi climàtic sobre els recursos hídrics. Per contra, el segon enfocament, que es denomina ascendent ("bottom-up"), comença per avaluar la vulnerabilitat del sistema a nivell local per a tot seguit identificar mesures d'adaptació de cara a un futur incert. Els resultats del mètodes esmentats prèviament, s'han integrat per a seleccionar una combinació de mesures d'adaptació cost-eficaç mitjançant un model d'optimització a menor cost a escala de conca. El model s'utilitza per investigar les solucions de compromís ("trade-offs") entre els diversos objectius de planificació, com són els cabals ecològics necessaris, el desenvolupament del regadiu i el cost del programa de mesures. A continuació, s'avaluen els programes d'adaptació per a varies condicions climàtiques amb el fi de definir un programa de mesures robust i de penediment mínim per a fer front al canvi climàtic. En la darrera part, s'escomet el problema del repartiment just dels costs del pla d'adaptació, considerant que això és una manera de facilitar la implementació del pla. En conseqüència, els resultats d'un procés de negociació entre els diferents actors han estat modelats mitjançant escenaris de repartiment basats en la teoria de jocs cooperatius. Tot seguit, els resultats s'han comparat amb altres regles de repartiment de costos basades en principis de justícia social. Això ha proporcionat un punt de vista diferent al procés de negociació. Aquest enfocament innovador s'ha aplicat a una conca mediterrània, la conca del riu Orb (França). Amb aquesta finalitat s'han utilitzat projeccions climàtiques a mig termini de dades reescalades de 9 Models de Circulació Global (MCG). A més a més, s'han desenvolupat escenaris d'evolució de la demanada en els sectors agrícola i urbà per a l'horitzó de planificació de 2030. El model d'optimització a menor cost a escala de conca desenvolupat en GAMS permet seleccionar un programa de mesures, de entre les 462 mesures de gestió de la oferta o de la demanda. Els nou escenaris de repartiment de costs han estat debatuts amb informants clau, mitjançant entrevistes, i comparats amb conceptes de solució de la teoria de jocs cooperatius, considerant un joc de 3 jugadors a escala de conca. El marc interdisciplinari desenvolupat al llarg de la tesi combina mètodes d'economia i d'enginyeria dels recursos hídrics de manera prometedora i permet la integració d'enfocaments "top-down" i "bottom-up", fet que contribueix a definir un pla d'adaptació cost-eficaç i just a escala local.
Girard, CDP. (2015). Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59461
TESIS
Premiado

In this work, I dealt with the repercussion of drought on agriculture and land in the cadastral Jinošov. For this area, I analyzed the erosion and ratio of outflow. I also conducted a proposal of adaptation measures against erosion and water retention in the area. In conclusion, I analyzed withholding data and assessed the retention before and after the proposal of adaptation measures. The result of my work is finding that rainfall is inadequate and largely come out of the growing season, that despite all the measures fail to create on the necessary retention for the correct functioning of the landscape. Therefore it is necessary to solve water supply from other areas where is sufficient supply of water.

Les àrees costaneres han de fer front als riscos creixents relacionats amb la PNM. El Delta de l'Ebre és un ecosistema representatiu de la vulnerabilitat de les zones costaneres a la PNM. La producció d’arròs és la principal activitat econòmica, ocupant un 65 % de la superfície total, és sensible a la PNM, i l'augment de la salinitat del sòl, el factor més limitat de la producció. Per tant, cal analitzar els impactes de la PNM, és a dir, la inundació i la salinització del sòl, i desenvolupar les mesures d'adaptació adequades. Vam construir models espacials (1 × 1 m) sobre les zones més vulnerables a la inundació, pèrdua de sediments, salinitat del sòl i pèrdua de producció d'arròs. Mitjançant l’acoblament de dades SIG amb GLMz, i posteriorment, els models es van executar en diferents escenaris previstos per l'IPCC (AR5) fins a l’any 2100. També vam avaluar la viabilitat d'una mesura d'adaptació innovadora basada en la natura, que consisteix a recuperar els sediments atrapats en els embassaments de la conca a la plana deltaica. L'elevació (inversament) va ser la variable més important a l'hora d'explicar la variació en la salinitat del sòl, els models van predir una disminució de l'índex de producció d'arròs normalitzat (RPI) seguint el gradient d'elevació del delta. Depenent de l'escenari considerat, els models prediuen una reducció del RPI al 2010 del 62.1% al 54,6% per l’any 2100, en l'escenari més conservador (PNM = 0.53 m); i fins al 33.8% per al pitjor dels escenari considerat (PNM = 1.8 m), amb una disminució dels beneficis de fins a 300 € per hectàrea. Per als mateixos escenaris, la superfície d’arrossars inundada va ser del 36-90 %, i la pèrdua de sediment va ser de entre 122 i 418 milions de tones. La mesura d'adaptació proposada, basada en la natura, va tenir un efecte positiu en la producció d'arròs i es pot considerar una opció de gestió innovadora per mantenir els serveis ecosistèmics del Delta de l'Ebre, tot i la PNM. Els nostres models es poden aplicar a altres àrees deltaiques de tot el món, ajudant els agricultors i els ‘stakeholders’ a identificar àrees vulnerables als efectes de la PNM així com a desenvolupar plans de gestió.
Las zonas costeras tienen que hacer frente a los crecientes riesgos relacionados con la subida del nivel del mar (SLR). El Delta del Ebro es un valioso ecosistema representativo de la vulnerabilidad de las zonas costeras al SLR. La producción de arroz, la principal actividad económica de la zona, ocupa ca. el 65% de la superficie total, y es sensible a la SLR, y al aumento de la salinidad del suelo el factor más limitante en el cultivo del arroz. Por tanto, es necesario analizar los impactos de la SLR, es decir, la inundaciones y la salinización del suelo, y desarrollar medidas de adaptación apropiadas. Hemos construido modelos espaciales (1 × 1 m) en áreas propensas a inundación, pérdida de sedimentos, salinización del suelo y pérdida de producción de arroz. Se acoplaron datos de GIS con GLMz y los modelos se realizaron bajo diferentes escenarios predichos por el IPCC (AR5) hasta 2100. También evaluamos la viabilidad de una medida innovadora de adaptación basada en la naturaleza que consiste en reintroducir sedimentos atrapados en embalses de bajo Ebro a la llanura deltaica. La elevación (inversamente relacionada a la salinidad del suelo) fue la variable más importante para explicar la salinidad del suelo, por lo que los modelos predijeron una disminución en el Índice de Producción de Arroz normalizado (RPI) siguiendo el gradiente de elevación del delta. Según el escenario considerado, los modelos predicen una reducción de RPI del 62.1 % en 2010 a 54.6 % en 2100 para el escenario más conservador (SLR = 0.53 m); Y al 33,8 % en el peor escenario considerado (SLR = 1,8 m), con una disminución de los beneficios de hasta 300 €/ha. Para los mismos escenarios, la superficie de los campos de arroz inundados osciló entre 36 y 90 %, y la pérdida de sedimentos de 122 a 418 millones de toneladas. La medida de adaptación propuesta tuvo un efecto positivo en la producción de arroz y puede considerarse como una opción de gestión innovadora para mantener los servicios ecosistémicos del Delta del Ebro a pesar del SLR. Nuestros modelos pueden aplicarse a otras áreas deltaicas en todo el mundo, ayudando a los agricultores y a las partes interesadas a identificar áreas vulnerables a los impactos del SLR y a desarrollar planes de manejo.
Coastal areas have to cope with increasing risks related to SLR. The Ebro Delta is a valuable ecosystem representative of the vulnerability of coastal areas to SLR. Rice production is the main economic activity, occupying ca. 65 % of the total surface is sensitive to SLR, and the increase in soil salinity, the most limiting factor. Thus, it is necessary to analyse the impacts of SLR, i.e. flooding and soil salinization, and to develop appropriate adaptation measures. We built spatial models (1 × 1 m) in areas prone to be flooded, sediment loss, soil salinity, and rice production loss. We coupled data from GIS with GLMz and models were run under different scenarios predicted by IPCC (AR5) up to 2100. We also evaluated the feasibility of an innovative nature-based adaptation measure consisting in reintroducing sediments trapped in basin reservoirs into the delta plain. Elevation (inversely related) was the most important variable in explaining soil salinity, thus, models predicted a decrease in normalized Rice Production Index following the delta elevation gradient. Subjected to the scenario considered, the models predict a RPI reduction from 62.1 % in 2010 to 54.6 % by 2100 in the most conservative scenario (SLR = 0.53 m); and to 33.8 % in the worst considered scenario (SLR = 1.8 m), with a decrease of profit up to 300 € per hectare. For the same scenarios, the flooded rice fields’ area ranged 36-90 %, and the sediment loss 122-418 million tonnes. The nature-based adaptation measure proposed had a positive effect on rice production, and it can be considered as an innovative management option for maintaining the Ebro Delta ecosystem services although SLR. Our models can be applied to other deltaic areas worldwide, helping farmers and stakeholders to identify vulnerable areas to SLR impacts and to develop management plans.

Includes bibliographical references.
Climate change is now widely seen as a major challenge of this time and the future of cities. However, the most vulnerable will be the urban poor particularly those located on the urban fringes in high risk areas with limited access to basic services and economic opportunities. In South Africa, although progress has been made to reduce socio-economic and environmental challenges created by apartheid legislations, inequalities still exist where the privileged live in safer and well located and serviced parts of the city while he poor are still located in settlements created by apartheid in urban fringes. Spatial Planning presents an opportunity to increase resilience to climate change in vulnerable areas of cities. Through integrating planning and climate adaptation actions, future spatial decisions will add to resilience to climate change and enhance wellbeing of people. The dissertation includes a case study that was conducted to learn about the status quo of the study area to effectively recommend relevant interventions that seek to create resilience to climate change in the area. A local area adaptation plan was then formulated including the framework for implementing proposed interventions in a 20 year timeframe.

Doutoramento em Física
Floods are a major threat to coastal regions, affecting millions of people, socioeconomic activities and natural ecosystems. Ria de Aveiro is a coastal lagoon, particularly threatened by floods, facing permanent changes motivated by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Consequently, the main aim of this study is to assess flood risk for floods of oceanic, fluvial and combined origin in Ria de Aveiro under present and future scenarios. This study also aims to propose and evaluate the effectiveness of structural measures on flood risk mitigation. These goals were achieved by applying the methodology Source - Pathway - Receptor, which is a multidisciplinary approach that comprised the following steps: 1) characterization of flooding drivers (oceanic and fluvial) through statistical analysis; 2) implementation, calibration and application of hydro/morphodynamic models to identify the flooding pathway and the flood extent; 3) assessment of flood damage by identifying the socio-economic and ecological assets exposed to flood hazard and determining flood risk by combining the probability and the adverse effects of flood events on assets. In addition, the effectiveness of flood barriers and changes in the lagoon central area geometry on flood risk mitigation was assessed. Results highlight that oceanic floods are consequence of signifcant sea levels induced by storm surge events (>0.4 m) and high tidal levels (>3.3 m), which increased in the last decades due to the general lagoon deepening motivated by dredging activities. These morphological changes increased the tidal prism, the tidal currents and the flood extent, increasing the threat to floods of oceanic origin. These endanger settlements and economic activities (mainly, agriculture, industry and commerce) located along the lagoon main channels margins as well as habitats in the lagoon central area. Floods of fluvial origin occur during adverse weather conditions, and endanger the rivers mouth adjacent regions causing damage in restricted settlements, economic activities (almost only agriculture) and farmland habitats. Besides the areas dominated by oceanic and fluvial forcing, the events of combined origin also affect the margins adjacent to the transition zones, once the flood water drainage is hindered by high sea levels. Although the uncertainties associated to the influence of anthropogenic actions on the lagoon geomorphology, it is predicted an/a increase/decrease of flood risk for events of oceanic/fluvial origin under future scenarios, as consequence of mean sea level rise/river discharges reduction predicted for the region. Finally, this work demonstrated the potential of hydrodynamic modelling for simulate the effectiveness of structural measures on flood risk mitigation, and consequently in supporting the decision making process underlying the flood risk management.
As inundações são uma das maiores ameaças às regiões costeiras, afetando milhões de pessoas, atividades socioeconómicas e ecossistemas. As lagunas costeiras, como a Ria de Aveiro, são sistemas de baixo relevo marginal, particularmente ameaçados por inundações, que enfrentam permanentes mudanças motivadas por fatores naturais e antropogénicos. Consequentemente, o presente estudo tem como objetivo principal avaliar o risco de inundação para eventos de origem oceânica, fluvial e combinada na Ria de Aveiro em cenários presentes e futuros. É também objetivo deste trabalho propor e avaliar a eficiência de medidas estruturais na mitigação do risco de inundação. Para alcançar estes objetivos foi aplicada a metodologia Fonte - Percurso - Recetor, uma abordagem multidisciplinar que compreendeu a realização dos seguintes passos: 1) caracterização dos agentes forçadores de cheias (oceânicos e fluviais) através de análises estatísticas; 2) implementação, calibração e aplicação de modelos hidro/morfodinâmicos para identificação do percurso e extensão de inundação; 3) avaliação dos danos causados pelas inundações, através da identificação dos elementos socioeconómicos e ecológicos expostos ao perigo de inundação e do cálculo do risco combinando a probabilidade com os efeitos adversos das inundações nos elementos expostos. Adicionalmente avaliou-se a eficiência de barreiras de inundação e de alterações na geometria da área central da laguna na mitigação do risco de inundação. Os resultados evidenciam que as inundações de origem oceânica são consequência de elevações significativas no nível do mar induzidas por sobre-elevações de origem meteorológica (>0.4 m) e níveis de maré elevados (>3.3 m), os quais aumentaram na Ria de Aveiro nas últimas décadas em resposta ao aprofundamento generalizado da laguna motivado por dragagens nos canais principais. Estas alterações morfológicas aumentaram o prisma de maré, as correntes de maré e a extensão de inundação, aumentando a ameaça de inundações de origem oceânica. Estas ameaçam aglomerados populacionais e atividades económicas (principalmente agricultura, indústria e comércio) localizadas ao longo das margens dos canais principais e ainda habitats localizados na área central da laguna. As inundações de origem fluvial ocorrem em condições atmosféricas adversas e ameaçam as regiões adjacentes à foz dos rios, causando danos em pequenos aglomerados populacionais e atividades económicas (quase exclusivamente agricultura). Além das regiões de influência oceânica e fluvial, os eventos de origem combinada afetam particularmente as áreas adjacentes às zonas de transição, uma vez que aí a drenagem é dificultada pela sobre-elevação do nível do mar. Apesar das incertezas relacionadas com a infuência de atividades antropogénicas na geomorfologia da laguna, prevê-se uma intensificação/redução do risco de inundação de origem oceânica/fluvial em cenários futuros, como consequência do aumento do nível do mar/diminuição das descargas fluviais previstas para a região. Finalmente, este trabalho demonstrou o potencial da modelação hidrodinâmica para simular a eficiência de medidas estruturais na mitigação do risco de inundação, e consequentemente no suporte ao processo de tomada de decisão subjacente à gestão do risco de inundação.

This project explores the uncertainty factors in drought planning for a water resource zone in Sussex. Nine planning options from the 2009 Sussex Water Resource Management Plan were assessed using four climate products: the 2009 UK Climate Projections Change Factors, the Spatial Coherent Projections, the 11 runs of the HadRM3 regional climate model and their subsequent downscaling by the Future Flows Project. The varying drought statistics from these four climate products reflect post-processing uncertainty - the uncertainty stemming from the process of converting original climate model outputs into products of different formats, variables and temporal/spatial scales. Overall, the study has integrated a cascade analysis of climate uncertainty, climate post-processing uncertainty, hydrological uncertainty, water resource model uncertainty and demand uncertainty on water resource planning. The study combines Robust Optimisation, Decision-Scaling and Robust Decision Making into Robust Decision Analysis, a decision making framework for dynamic adaptation pathways in response to different levels of uncertainty and risk averseness. Post-processing uncertainty is the dominate uncertainty until 2030s; 2050s is then dominated by demand and socio-economic uncertainty. The most severe droughts within the Spatial Coherent Projections and the 2009 UK Climate Projection products are variations of the 1975-1976 and the 1988-1989 droughts, two of the worst historic droughts currently used as the design events for drought planning in Sussex. The system appears to be robust to variations of these past droughts. Yet, under different sequences of droughts from the HadRM3 and Future Flows products, the system demonstrated frequent supply failures in the 2050s, unless water demand is maintained at the 2007 level or lower. While operational costs in the 2030s are generally within the region of 4 to 5 million GBP per year, those in the 2050s Market Forces jumped to the region of 5 to 15 million GBP per year and with supply deficit from 0 to 1100 Ml/year. When demand grows by 35% from the 2007 baseline level, universal metering becomes a key option. Despite climate post-processing uncertainty, the main hotspots of water deficits remains similar across the climate products and are driven by network bottlenecks and the continually high dependence of the system on water sources a round the Hardham area. The study also indicates that inter-regional transfers might not be as reliable as assumed.

The desire for local governments to adapt to climate change seems logically relevant as weather extremes inhibit the ability of local governments to protect public health and safety and to ensure delivery of public services. By conducting planned adaptation to climate change local governments enable themselves to minimize risk and increase adaptive capacity to deal with climate change impacts. In the midst of a federal government, minus the Obama administration, that has tended to downplay the importance of climate change, action by local level governments - cities in particular - in the U.S. have been at the forefront of action on climate change. Little attention has been given to local government adaptation in rural areas by both researchers and policy makers alike. Rural areas are at risk to changes in climate because they tend to be reliant on climate sensitive industries, comprised of vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and very young and to possess few resources to conduct land-use and other planning. This dissertation expands upon previous research by examining the decision to conduct planned adaptation by both urban and rural local government adaptation to climate change (RQ1) and by identifying the influences on the decision of local governments in both urban and rural areas to conduct planned adaptation to climate change (RQ2). New York State was selected as an appropriate case study to answer research questions because of the drastic contrast between urban and rural areas of the state. On the one hand, it has been one of the most progressive states in terms of climate change policy including its largest local government New York City; on the other hand, it is comprised of many rural local governments suffering from population and economic decline. An online survey was distributed to all New York State local governments in November/December 2011 and supplemented by informant discussions conducted before and after the survey. While a considerable amount of time has passed since the survey was conducted, it took place during what appears to be a particular timeframe in political history where the U.S. president supported action on climate change. Results of this study show strong differences in resource availability and the likelihood of urban vs. rural elected officials to conduct planned adaptation. One hundred and forty-two responses were received from large and small cities, towns, villages and counties. A traditional deductive research design was deployed to answer research questions. To examine the influences on the decision of local elected officials to conduct planned adaptation hypotheses were developed based on previous empirical studies and Mohr’s 1969 hypothesis that “Innovation is related to the motivation to innovate, inversely related to the strength of obstacles to innovation, and directly related to the availability of resources for overcoming such obstacles” (Mohr, 1969, p. 111). Two dependent variables were measured (1) planned adaptation or conscious decisions to adapt to climate change and an alternate dependent variable (2) formal and informal discussion of climate change within the local government. Independent variables measured related to local elected official motivation to conduct planned adaptation in the form of climate weather related concerns in New York State (i.e. extreme weather, water quality, and ecological changes), resource availability within the local government (i.e. budget, staff, climate change expertise) and the existence of obstacles toward planned adaptation external to local governments (i.e. public support, federal and state informational and financial support). The results of the survey showed that a small minority of local governments in New York State had decided to conduct planned adaptation to climate change. Over half of the sample was identified as conducting some form of spontaneous or reactive adaptation which consisted mostly of actions to minimize flood risk (i.e. update storm-water infrastructure, manage flood plains, promote open space). However, no local government surveyed had been identified as having successfully implemented an adaptation plan. Informal discussions were found to be occurring among half of the sample surveyed with a small number of local governments discussing climate change formally. According to informant discussions, the low level of planned adaptation among New York State local governments can be explained by a number of factors including a non-requirement to conduct planned adaptation, varying policy, resource and incentive conditions throughout the state, a lack of urgency to adapt to climate change and, finally, the absence of a support system to conduct planned adaptation. Results of hypothesis testing indicate that local governments are more likely to conduct planned adaptation to climate change where: A) climate change concerns are water related, B) budget, staff and climate change expertise are available and C) public support to address climate change impacts as well as state and federal informational support are available. Financial support from state and federal governments did not appear to influence the decision to conduct planned adaptation. Rural local governments were found less likely than urban local governments to be discussing climate change and to be conducting planned adaptation which is likely to be related to organizational size and the availability of resources to conduct planned adaptation measures. This dissertation contributes to understanding how local governments are adapting to climate change in New York State, what influences the decision of elected officials to conduct planned adaptation to climate change and how experiences may differ from municipality type — especially related to urban vs. rural local governments.

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Myanmar is a Least Developed Nation, according to the UN, and therefore is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of a changing climate. To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate change, this thesis analyzes projected impacts on the nation and its people, the current state of adaptation, and how Myanmar’s government has prepared. Projected impacts are viewed through the lens of the most recent IPCC reports and climate models, and discussed in relation to vulnerable areas in Burmese society and governance. This thesis concludes that Myanmar’s environment, people and society are at a significant risk; higher temperatures, altered precipitation rates, and higher sea levels will lead to reduced agriculture output, the spread of disease, and loss of habitable land. Though recent governmental action has laid the framework for suitable adaptation measures, slow progress in past decades has left Myanmar highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Myanmar’s next election is scheduled for 2015, and the emerging leaders have the opportunity to make significant progress in climate change adaptation. Cooperation between Myanmar’s new leaders and the international community could accelerate the nation’s adaptation efforts and result in significant progress on climate change preparedness projects.

Die Folgen des Klimawandels, sowie damit einhergehende Verluste und Schäden nehmen weltweit zu. Der damit verbundene globale Anstieg von Treibhausgasemissionen, zunehmende Verstädterung sowie ausufernder Konsum machen die Suche nach Anpassungsstrategien zur Vermeidung schädlicher Auswirkungen gegenwärtig wie zukünftig zu einer erheblichen Herausforderung. Diese erfordert ein tiefgehendes Verständnis der Komplexität vom Klimawandelfolgen für landwirtschaftsbasierte Existenzgrundlagen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es zu einem solchen Verständnis beizutragen. Die vorliegende Forschungsarbeit fragt daher danach, wie etwaige Umstellungsprozesse die Anpassungsfähigkeit sowie Resilienz der Bewohner_innen von Bagri, einem kleinen Dorf im Norden Ghanas, erweitern. Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertationsschrift basieren auf empirischen Erhebungen, die zwischen Februar und Juli 2017 in Lawra District in Nordghana unter Heranziehung qualitativer Fallstudieninstrumente durchgeführt wurden. Zum Einsatz kamen semi-strukturierte Interviews, Fokusgruppendiskussionen, Umfragen sowie ethnographische teilnehmende Beobachtungen. Die so gewonnenen Daten wurden kodiert und mit SPSS (Version 20) kreuztabellarisch sowie anhand verschiedener Variablen ausgewertet. Außerdem wurden Häufigkeiten interpretiert und die Ergebnisse schließlich in Tabellen, Graphen und Prozentsätzen verarbeitet. Des Weiteren wurden inhaltlichen Analysen der qualitativen Daten vorgenommen, die es erlaubten, Muster und Themen aus den Interviews und Diskussionen weiter zu verfolgen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass die Bewohner_innen in der untersuchten Gemeinde über die letzten drei Jahrzehnte eine Reihe klimatischer Veränderungen mit negativen Folgen für die Landwirtschaft erfahren haben. Um sich beispielsweise an die klimawandelbedingte kürzere Dauer der Regenzeit sowie niedrige Niederschlagsmengen anzupassen, greifen Kleinbauern auf schrittweise Anpassungsstrategien wie verbessertes Saatgut und weitere unterstützende Maßnahmen zurück. Paradoxerweise, untergraben Klimawandelextreme derlei Strategien auf mehreren Ebenen und reduzieren Erträge um ein Vielfaches ihres Potenzials, was wiederum finanzieller Verschuldung Vorschub leistet. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigen daher, dass die Überwindung nicht-klimatischer Barrieren landwirtschaftlicher Anpassungsstrategien eine notwendige wenn auch nicht ausreichende Bedingung für eine erfolgreiche Umstellung darstellt. Immer neu aufkommende Schwierigkeiten machen Anpassung zu einem langfristigen Prozess. Eine zweite Erkenntnis dieser Arbeit ist, dass die sich wandelnden klimatischen Verhältnisse zu einer Diversifizierung der Lebensgrundlagen weg von landwirtschaftlicher Produktion hin zu Aktivitäten jenseits der Höfe in Bagri geführt haben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Prozess der Diversifizierung abhängig ist von der Einbindung der Haushalte in Gruppenaktivitäten sowie in formelle und informelle Netzwerke. Zusammenfassend gilt, dass Haushalte, die engmaschig in soziale Netze eingebettet sind eine höhere Resilienz gegenüber wahrgenommenen klimatischen Veränderungen aufweisen. Dies liegt darin begründet, dass sie zumeist über einen besseren Zugang zu kritischen – materiellen wie immateriellen – Ressourcen verfügen, welche Diversifizierung maßgeblich ermöglichen. Zudem deuten die Befunde an, wie Gruppenaktivitäten und soziale Netzwerke Marginalisierung und widersprüchlichen Ressourcenumgang befeuern können, die zugleich die Gefahr bergen, soziale und ökologische Resilienz im Dorf zu verringern. Darüber hinaus zeigt diese Arbeit die Mechanismen kollaborativer Anpassungssteuerung auf, indem sie den Fragen nachgeht, warum und wie diese Steuerungsformen Anpassungsfähigkeit befördern. Die Ergebnisse verweisen auf die Beziehungsdynamiken zwischen den relevanten Akteuren sowie Nutzen und Misserfolge und die Herausforderungen nachhaltiger kollaborativer Anpassungsstrategien in Nordghana. Ergänzend, stellt diese Studie heraus, wie machtvolle Akteure Agenden setzen, Problematisierungen generieren sowie Regeln und Anreize schaffen, die im Widerspruch zu den normativen Grundsätzen der kollaborativen Anpassungstheorie stehen können. Ausgehend von der Fallstudie in Nordghana stellt diese Arbeit auch Überlegungen dazu an, wie kollaborative Anpassungssteuerung erfolgreichen Umgang mit klimawandelbedingten Veränderungen weltweit befördern kann. Zusammenfassend, leistet diese Arbeit einen Beitrag zur Schließung theoretischer wie empirischer Wissenslücken im wachsenden Bereich der Forschung zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Sie illustriert darüber hinaus den unschätzbaren Wert qualitativer Fallstudien und zeigt auf, wie diese einen Beitrag leisten können zu oftmals abstrakten und schwer fassbaren Themen in der wissenschaftlichen Diskussion und damit ein Fundament für informierte politische Entscheidungen sowohl auf lokaler als auch globaler Ebene legen.
Climate change impacts, related losses and damages are increasing globally. When these consequences are coupled with increasing global greenhouse gas emission, urban expansion and unsustainable consumption, the pursuit of adaptation to avoid adverse outcomes is a present necessity and a significant future challenge. The overarching aim of this doctoral dissertation is to gain a better understanding of the complexity of climate change impacts on agricultural livelihoods and how adaptation processes enhance adaptive capacity and resilience in Bagri, a small village in northern Ghana. The results presented in this doctoral thesis are based on empirical data obtained between February and July, 2017 in the Lawra District of northern Ghana using qualitative case study research methods: semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, survey and ethnographic participant observation. Data from the survey were coded and inputted into Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 20 and cross tabulation and analysis of different variables and interpretation of frequencies were done and processed into tables, graphs and percentages. Content analyses of qualitative data were done which allowed patterns and themes in interviews and discussions to be derived and interpreted. The findings show that, people in the studied community have experienced a range of climatic changes with negative impacts on agriculture in the last three decades. In order to adapt to the short duration of the rainy season and low rainfall amounts associated with climate change, smallholder farmers use incremental adaptation strategies such as improved crop varieties and other support strategies. Paradoxically, however, climate change extremes (CCEs) undermined these strategies in several instances, causing crop yields to fall short of their actual potential leading to financial indebtedness. The results therefore, showcase that surmounting non-climatic barriers to the uptake of agricultural adaptation strategies is a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieving successful outcomes, as new barriers in the adaptation process beyond uptake are constantly emerging with CCEs being one example. Secondly, the findings show that climatic changes have necessitated livelihood diversification away from crop production and into off-farm and non-farm activities in Bagri. The results highlight how the process of diversification is dependent on household participation in various group activities and formal and informal social networks. Generally, households in dense social networks were found to be more resilient to perceived climate changes because they had access to the critical resources (material and non-material) essential for diversification. Importantly, the findings shed light on how group activities and social networks can create marginalization and conflicting resource use with the potential of undermining social and ecological resilience in the village. Moreover, this dissertation explores the mechanics of collaborative adaptation governance (CAG) addressing questions of why and how this mode of governance facilitates adaptive capacity. The findings illuminate stakeholder relational dynamics, benefits and failures, and the sustainability challenge of collaborative adaptation governance (CAG) in northern Ghana. More importantly, this study unveils how powerful actors set the agenda, frame problems, and implement rules and incentives contrary to the normative tenets of collaborative governance theory. Ultimately, the results highlights the failures, successes and sustainability challenges of CAG in northern Ghana, while also providing insight into the extent to which CAG approaches can facilitate adaptation to climate change globally. In conclusion, this doctoral dissertation responds to both theoretical and emperical knowledge gaps in the burgeoning climate change adaptation research, and illustrates how invaluable, qualitative case studies can contribute to illuminate some of the elusive themes in the literature and provide evidence for policy making at both local and global levels.

Climate change and variability is a major threat to sustainable development across the globe. Paradoxically, smallholder farmers to a great extend contribute to the spread and also hold the key to effective management of climate change and variability. Despite their centrality in climate change and variability, not much is known about smallholder farmers and climate change adaptation. As a contribution towards addressing this need, the present study analysed the role played by gender in climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in Kenya. The study was conducted in two agro-ecological zones (analogue sites) – one in the semi-arid region, and the other in the sub-humid region, each comprising a pair of cooler and warmer sites. Data for the study were collected at different intervals between June 2011 and June 2013, using multiple approaches including household interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs) and personal observations. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed a high level of awareness on climate change and variability among smallholder farmers. The results also reveal that both male and female farmers perceive climate change and variability as a serious threat to their crop and livestock production. There were also demonstrable impacts of climate change and variability on smallholder agricultural practices, a number of which differed across the analogue sites. The adjustments in the agricultural practices were significantly different (p≤0.001) between the regions (analogue sites) for methods of land preparation, planting practices, crop management, weed control and pest and disease control. In the semi-arid region, farmers in the warmer areas significantly differed (p≤ 0.001) with those in cooler areas in the timing of land preparation, increased use of manure and fertiliser, crop management and increased use of pesticides. In the sub-humid region smallholder farmers in warmer sites significantly (p ≤ 0.001) differed with their counterparts in cooler sites in use of manure and fertiliser use and crop management. There were comparatively low levels of adoption of appropriate technologies among women than men. Generally, female farmers preferred low cost measures when dealing with the impacts of climate change and variability such as planting tree crops, use of manure and mixed farming as well as use of soil and water conservation measures. Pest and disease control measures, use of improved crop varieties and crop diversification were the common adaptation measures used by the male farmers. Adaptation measures are likely to be insufficient in some cases, particularly for the smallholder farmers in semi-arid region given the high food insecurity. Smallholder farmers are central to climate change and variability management. The farmers in warmer sites offer an important knowledge base that can be of invaluable help to those in the cooler sites in both agro-ecological zones. This therefore means that the success of effective adaptation to climate change variability lies in building on the existing knowledge base and incorporating gender considerations in a participatory research process. The study provides data that can be considered for action agenda by the county governments.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, 2017.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 161-175).
Climate change threatens the function and even existence of coastal cities, requiring them to adapt by preparing for near-term risks and reorienting long-term development. Most policy and academic interest in the governance of climate adaptation has focused on global, national, and local scales. Their efforts increasingly revealed the need to plan for adaptation at the scale of metropolitan regions. This dissertation is the first academic comparative analysis of U.S. regional adaptation initiatives. Drawing on multi-method qualitative research of five coastal regions, I ask: are collaboratives to coordinate adaptation at the regional scale a new form of regionalism? What roles do state policies on climate change and regional governance play? I argue that adaptation collaboratives are an ecological variant of new regionalism that recenters the role of public agencies in advancing adaptation efforts. Adaptation champions have helped overcome limited local adaptation, even where states are antagonistic to climate action, by sharing knowledge, providing technical assistance, and fostering political support. However, most have yet to tackle the limitations of local adaptation. Instead, they have deployed narratives of climate change as predictable and manageable, and of regional adaptation as localized and ecological in ways that mask the need for more transformative developmental and governance paradigms. Only places with regional agencies or county governments that have land use authority, fiscal leverage, or state mandated targets have advanced region-wide zoning and long-term developmental changes. This indicates that state policies towards regional planning institutions are more influential in shaping regional adaptation than those focused on adaptation. Scholarship has shifted away from debates around forms of regional government, but these findings highlight the need to strengthen regional government in order to overcome difficulties in coordinating, implementing, and enforcing multi-sector and multi-jurisdictional responses to climate change. I conclude by calling for a renewed ecological regionalism that articulates a vision of regions functioning as an ecological whole, rather than as the sum of individual parts. I offer recommendations for how collaboratives and other advocates could build awareness and open dialogue about regional interdependence, conflicts, responsibility, and accountability. These processes become pathways to envisioning local preferences for regional governance, build buy-in and coalitions, and advocate for state enabling legislation.
by Linda Shi.
Ph. D.

Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent extreme precipitation events, floods and changes in frost/thawing cycles. The frequency of road closures and other incidents such as flooding, landslides and roads being washed away will probably increase. Stronger demands will be placed on the function of road drainage systems. The overall aim of this thesis was to produce scientifically well-founded suggestions on adaptation of road drainage systems to climate change involving more frequent floods. The work began by examining current practice for road drainage systems in Sweden and gathering experience from professionals working with various problems concerning surface and subsurface drainage systems. Various hydrological models were then used to calculate the runoff from a catchment adjacent to a road and estimate changes in peak discharge and total runoff resulting from simulated land use measures. According to these survey and hydrological modelling studies, adaptation of road drainage systems to climate change can be grouped into two categories: i) institutional adaptation; and ii) technical adaptation. The main approaches in institutional adaptation are to: i) raise the awareness of expected climate change and its impact on drainage systems in transport administration and relevant stakeholders; ii) include adaptation measures in the existing funding programme of the transport administration; and iii) develop an evaluation tool and action plans concerning existing road drainage systems. Technical adaptation will involve ensuring that road constructions are adapted to more frequent extreme precipitation events and responsive to changes in activities and land use in areas adjacent to roads. Changes in climate variables will have effects on watershed hydrological responses and consequently influence the amount of runoff reaching roads. There is a great need for tools such as hydrological models to assess impacts on discharge dynamics, including peak flows. Improved communication between road managers and local actors in the forestry and agriculture sectors can be a means to reduce the impacts of, e.g., clear-cutting or badly managed farmland ditches.
QC 20111214

Today, more and more organisations recognise that climate change is happening and have already begun to suffer from the impacts of this change. However, the predominant response to this challenge has been one of mitigation, not necessarily to protect companies and supply chains from the impacts of climate change, but rather to reduce the impact of business and logistics on the environment. In order to prepare organisations and their supply networks for the projected impacts, the concept of adaptation to climate change has recently attracted increasing attention amongst scientists and practitioners. As most research has been conducted in the public sector, this thesis aims to determine how supply networks in the private sector can adapt to climate change and its related risk factors. The field research is designed as a single large case study and investigates a global coffee supply network. As the coffee industry is very sensitive to climate change it has already taken actions to make the supply network more resilient and can therefore offer valuable insights into the concept of adaptation to climate change. Multiple interviews were conducted and the information received was analysed using two developed a priori models concluded from literature. This research contributes to the literature in supply chain risk management by adding supply chain climate risk (SCCR) as a new sub category of external supply chain risk and extends the literature in ‘learning’ by proposing a process model of network learning as a solution to enable supply networks to adapt to climate change. This thesis also offers a number of mechanisms to provide decision makers with practical recommendations that should be implemented throughout the coffee supply network. Therefore, for the first time, this research addresses the contemporary problem of climate change by taking a supply network perspective and proposing a network learning process that enables an adaptation to the identified and location-specific climate risk. Besides its contribution to theory, this thesis is also highly relevant for practitioners as it offers clear managerial guidance of how the researched coffee supply network can become more resilient to climate change.

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems facing humanity, particularly for developing countries which are highly vulnerable to environmental and climate hazards. If citizens of these countries are to adapt there must be sufficient incentives, knowledge, resources, skills, and an absence of market failures and barriers that discourage adaptation. Growing interest exists in how microfinance can facilitate adaptation. However, much of the existing literature remains conjectural, positively biased, and insufficiently uses adaptation concepts. Additional studies of microfinance-adaptation linkages adopting an adaptation lens are needed to address knowledge gaps. The aim of this thesis has been to contribute to microfinance-adaptation literature by examining conceptual arguments and exploring empirical data. To achieve this, a pragmatic philosophy, mixed-methods approach, and an abductive strategy were adopted. The research location was Noapara Village, Bangladesh, providing a representative case-study of the local area. The unit of analysis was the household, facilitating understanding of relationships between microfinance, livelihoods, autonomous adaptation, and environmental and climate hazards. Methods included a household survey, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. The fieldwork was iterative and sequenced to facilitate subsequent research and triangulation. Analytical categorisation was undertaken iteratively, building on initial descriptive coding and drawing on literature themes to interpret the material. The first thesis objective was to explore features and patterns of autonomous household livelihood adaptation to better understand responses to environmental and climate hazards. Most households were found to have implemented reactive measures reducing livelihood risk. Two forms of transformational adaptation linked to socioeconomic status emerged: low-cost involuntary measures which reduce income, and high-cost voluntary measures taking advantage of emerging opportunities. The second objective was to explore the influence microfinance had on household efforts to reduce vulnerability to environmental and climate hazards. Households used credit to cope and adapt but credit limits prevented many households from adopting transformative opportunities. Often credit usage sacrificed longer term prospects for livelihood improvement for short-term security and at times led to over-indebtedness. The third objective was to explore how local-level microfinance institution representatives have responded to environmental and climate hazards and their ability to foster adaptation. Branch managers have done little in response to the problems posed by flooding, and are unable to screen clients or effectively manage aggregated risk. Reducing vulnerability by encouraging adaptation among clients holds promise but climate proofing products and partnering with other institutions is required. The thesis demonstrates that the existing literature relies on an overly simplistic view of potential microfinance-adaptation linkages, arguably due to insufficient consideration of adaptation concepts. However, the microfinance-adaptation literature is in its early stages. This thesis has contributed by providing a more nuanced study, producing different types of data, employing different data collection and interpretation approaches, and exploring both positive and negative linkages. This thesis arguably represents the first in-depth empirical study using an adaptation lens. Several important research findings were uncovered which show both signs of promise and concern. Future research can build upon this thesis, deepening understanding of how and under what conditions microfinance can reduce vulnerability. In summary, this thesis found that microfinance currently does not provide the necessary ingredients households require to transformationally adapt. Considering that future projections estimate non-marginal change to be ever more necessary, adaptation planners cannot rely upon the microfinance system to facilitate sufficient adaptation levels. The microfinance system can arguably benefit as much from adaptation planning as adaptation planning can benefit from microfinance. However, microfinance offers a potential conduit to support vulnerable communities. Microfinance programmes need climate proofing, so that investment patterns incentivised are ‘climate-compatible’. Additionally, microfinance institutions need to partner with other development actors to ensure households receive the holistic support required to adapt and thus reduce institutional vulnerability.

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate if, and how, national authorities integrate a gender perspective into climate change adaptation in Sweden. The study was completed by using qualitative text analysis and content analysis of documents and reports, of two chosen national authorities currently active in the Swedish society. Particularly Yvonne Hirdmans gender system were used as a theoretical framework. The result of the study reveals that national authorities mention gender as an important aspect to climate change, and an important factor of vulnerability in any outcome of a climate disaster. It is also revealed that a gender perspective on climate change adaptation could enlighten the differences between how men and women are affected by climate change, as well as providing solutions to prevent women’s vulnerability in future extreme weather events. A conclusion of the study is that the authorities analysed do integrate a gender perspective in their climate change adaptation work. However, the overall lack of material of a gender perspective on climate change makes it clear that a gender perspective is not fully integrated among national authorities currently active in Sweden.
Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka om, samt hur, nationella myndigheter integrerar ett genusperspektiv i klimatanpassning i Sverige. Studien utfördes genom att använda kvalitativ text analys och innehållsanalys av dokument och rapporter från två utvalda nationella myndigheter aktiva i det svenska samhället. I studien användes genusteori och särskilt Yvonne Hirdmans teori Genussystemet. Resultatet av studien visar att nationella myndigheter nämner kön som en viktig aspekt i klimatförändringarna, men även att kön är en avgörande faktor i resultatet av en klimatkatastrof. Studien förtydligar även att ett genusperspektiv i klimatanpassning kan bevisa hur män och kvinnor påverkas olika av klimatförändringarna, samt bidra med lösningar för att undvika kvinnors utsatthet i ett förändrat klimat. En slutsats av studien är att de valda myndigheterna har integrerat ett genusperspektiv i sitt klimatanpassningsarbete. Övergripande brist på information och material kring ett genusperspektiv i klimatanpassning tydliggör dock att ett genusperspektiv inte är helt integrerat i klimatanpassningsarbetet för myndigheter aktiva i Sverige.

In this thesis, I conduct a global event-data study investigating the relationship between exposure to natural hazards and climate change adaptation. Exposure to natural hazards has previously been linked to actions aimed at reducing risks related to future natural hazards. With climate change, and predicted increase in hazard frequency and intensity, a feasible approach to risk mitigation is climate change adaptation, which can thus be considered a disaster risk reduction strategy. I investigate the effects of disaster frequency and severity on the amount of climate change adaptation actions taken on a subnational level of government, using disaster data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and data on adaptation actions from CDP. Disaster severity is operationalised in three separate ways to distinguish between different kinds of disaster impacts: in terms of (1) economic damage, (2) how many are affected, and (3) fatalities. I hypothesise that all independent variables are positively related to climate change adaptation, and test the hypotheses using OLS regression. The result depicts a positive correlation between the number of disasters experienced and adaptation actions. I do not see a positive relationship between climate change adaptation actions and the two impact variables total affected and total fatalities. The relationship between economic damages and adaptation actions indicates that economic damages could have different impacts depending on the level of economic development in a country. This study contributes to the integration of the two research fields climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction by studying climate change adaptation as a form of disaster risk reduction, and deepening the knowledge of what can drive adaptation. Finally, this study contributes by showing that the level of economic development could be an important aspect of the exposure-adaptation relationship.

This thesis analyses how societal adaptation processes in public and private sectors at the regional to local level in Sweden are enacted. The thesis pays particular attention to critical factors that constrain or enable adaptation by focussing on: who are the stakeholders, how do different stakeholders perceive their capacity to adapt, and the role of stakeholder interaction in facilitating adaptation processes A combination of two analytical perspectives is used where one is based on key concepts within adaptation literature, and the other draws on boundary crossing and transdisciplinary knowledge production (stakeholders, adaptive capacity, and science-based stakeholder dialogues). The study is conducted within the scope of two overall case studies of local adaptation processes within an urban region, and a land-use based sector, the private forestry sector. The cases are setting the scene for the collection of empirical material which is achieved through qualitative methods, primarily focus groups discussions with local and regional, public and private stakeholders with an interest in, and responsibility for adaptation. The focus groups meetings are organized as a series of meetings to which different participatory techniques are applied. The study also builds on a comprehensive stakeholder mapping. First, the results suggest a systematic method for identifying stakeholders in adaptation research, policy, and planning applicable in both sectors and regions that combines top-down knowledge with experience and knowledge based on bottom-up processes. Second, the analysis of perceived adaptive capacities reveal several facilitating and constraining factors that relates both to the characteristics of climate risks, experience of climate variability and extreme weather events, and responsibility- and decision-making structures. Third, the analysis of the interaction between local experts and scientists show that there is potential for the boundary spanning function of science-based stakeholder dialogues in facilitating adaptation through stimulating questions and sharing different knowledge bases and experiences among the participants. However further attention needs to be taken to the institutional environment and the role of so called anchoring devices that help local experts to contextualise, discus and thus anchor scientific knowledge in their own decision-making context. In conclusion, there are both commonalities between adaptation processes in the two case studies and some marked differences, e.g., regarding the concept of adaptation, what type of adaptation actions that are identified, the perceived opportunities for adaptation and degree of complexity.
Denna avhandling analyserar hur klimatanpassningsprocesser inom privata och offentliga sektorer på regional till lokal nivå i Sverige initieras, utvecklas och genomförs. Avhandlingen ägnar särskild uppmärksamhet åt identifiering av vilka intressenter (”stakeholders”) som är involverade i att underlätta och genomföra anpassning, uppfattningar om anpassningsförmåga samt vilken roll interaktion mellan olika intressenter kan ha för att underlätta anpassning. En kombination av två analytiska perspektiv används som bygger på tidigare forskning om klimatanpassningsprocesser samt transdisciplinär kunskapsproduktion. Studien genomförs inom ramen för två övergripande fallstudier av anpassningsprocesser i en urban region samt den privata skogssektorn. Fallstudierna utgör grunden för insamlingen av det empiriska materialet som bygger på kvalitativa metoder. Den främsta metoden är fokusgruppsdiskussioner med lokala och regionala, privata och offentliga aktörer med intresse av, eller ansvar för klimatanpassning. Fokusgrupperna organiseras som en serie möten där olika deltagandetekniker tillämpas. Studien bygger också på en omfattande intressentkartläggning. I avhandlingen utvecklas och ges förslag på en stegvis metod för att identifiera intressenter för anpassningsprocesser som kan användas inom forskning och praktik. Studien analyserar också hur olika intressentgrupper upplever förmågan att hantera klimatförändringar. Ett antal möjliggörande och begränsande faktorer identifieras så som karaktären på de upplevda klimatriskerna, erfarenhet av klimatvariationer och extrema väderhändelser, samt ansvar- och beslutsstrukturer. Slutligen, analyseras om och i så fall hur interaktionen mellan lokala experter och forskare som deltar i intressantdialoger (”science-based stakeholder dialogues”) kan underlätta anpassning. Resultaten visar att det finns potential genom att deltagarna ges möjlighet att ställa frågor tillvarandra och dela med sig av sina olika kunskapsbaser och erfarenheter, samt utforska olika anpassningsalternativ. Däremot behövs vidare studier för att undersöka betydelsen av det institutionella sammanhanget samt hur olika verktyg (”anchoring devices”) kan bidra när det gäller att förankra och omsätta kunskap om klimatförändringar i olika beslutskontexter. Avslutningsvis visar denna studie på att det finns både likheter och skillnader i hur anpassningsprocesser kommer till uttryck bland de olika aktörsgrupperna inom fallstudierna, t.ex. när det gäller hur begreppet anpassning används, vilken typ av anpassning som identifieras, upplevda möjligheter för anpassning samt graden av komplexitet.

Adaptation to climate change is difficult because of uncertainties about the future climate and its impacts, the multitude of contexts affected and the dynamic nature of future impacts. Adaptive governance and social learning may provide institutions with the flexibility to tackle this challenge. This study aimed to explore how these processes assist smallholder farmers in Uganda. A mixed methods approach was used. Farmers' perception of the climate, livelihood adaptation and social learning was explored using semi-structured interviews (n=160), and social networks of learning was investigated using an actor-network analysis (n=62). Processes of livelihood resilience were documented with guided interviews and focus group discussions. Farmers perceived a change in the local climate. There were differing perceptions of change in seasonality, but conclusive perceptions of decreasing trends in rainfall and increased variability in intra-seasonal rainfall. No perceptions were supported by meteorological data, except for the rising trend in temperature. Farmers implemented many livelihood coping and anticipatory responses to perceived climate risk, including livestock maintenance, food storage, and planting drought-resistant varieties. Adaptive capacity and perception of farmers differed with their access to assets, entitlements and endowments. Wealthier farmers had more effective responses than marginalised farmers, and perceived drought as higher risk, whereas marginalised farmers perceived extreme rainfall as riskier. Agricultural extension stimulated social learning and contributed to livelihood innovation increasing food security and income. Informal knowledge exchange at other learning platforms, e.g. church, supported marginal farmers and learning was assisted by strong, local leadership and shadow networks at local scales. Reflexivity and multi-stakeholder collaboration were evident in governing institutions. Limited self-organisation and vertical communication among farmers demonstrated few opportunities for shifts in governance and learning was challenged by inequity and elite capture. Livelihood resilience would be improved by further farmer inclusivity, the mainstreaming of adaptation into policy and improved collaboration amongst stakeholders.

As the impacts of climate change become more severe, coastal communities are required to prepare plans for adaptation to the invasive environmental changes. A well-prepared adaptation plan can effectively reduce the overall risks of coastal communities. However, a plan is not the final solution for the climate change on coastal communities. How to take the plan into action and implement it in the local communities and find the opportunities for the enhanced preparedness and development of coastal communities is the primary consideration of this thesis research. Many organizations are engaged in developing adaptation tools and guidebooks. For completing their adaptation plans, communities need to develop clear, operational, action plans, and discover the opportunities to enhance the sustainability of coastal communities. To make coastal communities more sustainable in the face of the changing climate, the public’s attention and community participation is critical. The purpose of this study is to develop an adaptation framework and action plan process system for coastal communities and at the same time, provide the general public with an enhanced opportunity to contribute their understanding about what is being done for their costal community around them and how to react when an event happens. The research is applied to the coastal communities of Richmond County, Cape Breton, Canada as a case study. The result of the work develops an adaptation “Action Plan” website for Richmond County. The website features the development, application, and simulation of a mobile communication “Action plan” application designed and implemented with the action website along to provide coastal community with communication options that exploit the local community network and enhance the community’s capacity for climate change adaptation. The emergency response community mobile app and the accompanying website are models for other communities especially those that from the coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean as part of the C-Change ICURA project to which this research is affiliated.

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2013.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-101).
The electric utility sector has been a focus of policy efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but even if these efforts are successful, the sector will need to adapt to the impacts of climate change. These are likely to include increased heat waves, drought, extreme precipitation events, and sea level rise. Electric utilities play a key role in providing electricity services in cities that will be facing all of these difficulties. Cities depend on electricity service for public health, safety and economic development. This thesis examines how electric utilities in the United States are approaching climate change adaptation and the factors enabling and constraining these efforts. The thesis draws on an analysis of electric utility responses to surveys distributed by the Carbon Disclosure Project as well as case studies of Consolidated Edison, Entergy, and Pacific Gas & Electric. The case study utilities are incorporating climate change projections into their risk management and capital planning activities. Integrating climate change projections into risk management efforts helps utilities use replacement opportunities to build greater resilience into infrastructure systems and ensure that adaptation strategies take competing demands on resources into account. Both approaches to adaptation are generally recommended by adaptation experts. However, existing internal decisionmaking may not be well suited for incorporating the uncertainties of climate change impacts. The case study utilities could be using Scenario Planning to develop strategies likely to be effective given a range of possible futures, but they are not. I argue that state utility regulatory commissions should consider taking a more active role in providing guidance and oversight to utilities regarding climate change adaptation. They should consider (1) requiring utilities to submit climate change vulnerability assessments and detailed adaptation plans; (2) incorporating climate change risk and adaptation considerations into existing electricity plans; and (3) convening joint climate change planning efforts with utilities, municipal governments, and a range of other stakeholders. Cities and states that would like to see electric utilities put more emphasis on climate change adaptation should consider sharing climate change projections and forecasts of potential climate change impacts. Provision of such information has been effective in encouraging adaptation planning in the case studies. The actual adaptation strategies that utilities have adopted depend largely on the risks they face and the regulatory and policy environment in which they find themselves.
by Melissa Higbee.
M.C.P.

The Mexican Caribbean tourism sector is highly exposed to hurricane activity, yet coastal tourism is also a major driver influencing regional biophysical and social vulnerability to climate risks. Drawing on a political ecology approach and a vulnerability assessment, this study asks how experiences with extreme hurricane events in the Mexican Caribbean shape climate change adaptation in the regional tourism sector. This study uses multiple methods, scales and field sites to (a) examine how biophysical vulnerability to extreme hurricanes affects the tourism sector, (b) explain the changing conditions of social vulnerability linked to hurricane damage in the tourism sector and (c) assess the present and future opportunities and obstacles for adaptation planning. The main findings show that the region is experiencing a phase of unprecedented high intensity hurricanes. It is uncertain, however, whether changes in hurricane activity exceed natural multi-decadal variability. Tourism is one major driver of land use changes which have resulted in some of the world’s fastest increase in coastal urban sprawl. Most tourism infrastructure is located in areas with the greatest exposure to hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma which hit the region in 2005 is the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the Mexican insurance industry. Hotels have showed a high ability to recover operations after hurricanes. There is a high penetration of insurance ownership in hotels and there is substantial mobilization of public and private financial and human resources during hurricane disasters. Hotel responses to hurricanes, however, tend to be reactive and autonomous. One important consequence of hurricanes is that hoteliers in the interest to reduce operational costs, fire those workers with the weakest labour rights. Thus, hotel workers suffer from ‘double exposure’, a situation where hotel workers are confronted with the consequences of climate change while simultaneously suffering the consequences of globalization and neoliberal policies which have reduced the power of unions and weakened access to social security. The Mexican government has created a national climate change strategy and its operational programme which has led to the consolidation of an adaptation organizational structures at the national and state levels. I conclude, however, that adaptation planning may not result in the necessary actions on the ground since local actors are not well integrated yet into such efforts. This study shows the importance of regional adaptation research that takes into account perspectives from both the physical and social sciences. This study highlights the importance of interactions between local actors, the larger socioeconomic and political economy context to inform adaptation planning and policy.

Climate change is one of the most serious environmental threats facing mankind worldwide. It affects agriculture in several ways, including its direct impact on food production. Climate change, which is attributable to the natural climate cycle and human activities, has adversely affected agricultural productivity in Africa When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31649

In September 2020, Northeast China suffered three unprecedented typhoons in half a month, and there was freezing rain in early November, all of which led to the large-scale urban power failure. The occurrence of these phenomena makes people directly see climate change and its impact on the living environment of human beings. Many studies have shown that the cause of climate change is the increase of artificial greenhouse gas emissions since industrialization. In addition to the increase of extreme weather disasters, the most direct manifestations of climate change are the rising temperature, droughts, and rising sea levels. The building sector accounts for 39% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 36% of energy consumption. To ensure the long-term integrity and normal operation of buildings, we need to understand the impact of climate on buildings, and how to deal with it. This paper reviews the literature on climate change and building energy by searching search engines and literature databases. For extreme weather, most literature talks about the impact of power failure, the main strategy is to improve reliability, resilience, sustainability, and robustness, it can help reduce losses and recover as soon as possible. On the other hand, the methods of adaptation to and mitigation of non-disaster weather are reviewed from the perspective of sustainability. This paper mainly reviews the methods of passive technology and strategy for exemplary buildings, building envelope, passive ventilation, lighting/shading, solar energy, bioenergy, dehumidification, passive cooling, and design strategy. According to the local climate, the geographical characteristics of the building, to develop comprehensive passive technology and strategy, can meet or close to meet their energy saving, emission reduction, comfort needs. This paper can provide a technical and strategic reference for the building sector to deal with climate change.

Via online ZOOM meeting Presentation

The research presented here attempts to bridge science and policy through the quantification of climate change impacts and the analysis of a science-fed participatory process to face a sustainability challenge in the San Pedro Basin (Arizona). Paper 1 presents an assessment of a collaborative development process of a decision support system model between academia and a multi-stakeholder consortium created to solve water sustainability problems in a local watershed. This study analyzes how science-fed multi-stakeholder participatory processes lead to sustainability learning promoting resilience and adaptation. Paper 2 presents an approach to link an ensemble of global climate model outputs with a hydrological model to quantify climate change impacts in the hydrology of a basin, providing a range of uncertainty in the results. Precipitation projections for the current century from different climate models and IPCC scenarios are used to obtain recharge estimates as inputs to a groundwater model. Quantifying changes in the basin's water budget due to changes in recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) rates are assumed to depend only on groundwater levels. Picking on such assumption, Paper 3 explores the effects of a changing climate on ET. Using experimental eddy covariance data from three riparian sites, it analyzes seasonal controls on ET. An approach to quantify evapotranspiration rates and growing season length under warmer climates is proposed. Results indicate that although atmospheric demand will be greater, increasing pan and reference crop evaporation, ET rates at the studied field sites will remain unchanged due to stomatal regulation. However, the length of the growing season will increase, mainly with an earlier leaf-out and at a lesser level by a delayed growing season end. These findings - implying decreased aquifer recharge, increased riparian water use and a lesser water balance - are very relevant for water management in semi-arid regions. Paper 4, in which I am second author, explores the theory relating changes in area-average and pan evaporation. Using the same experimental data as Paper 3, it corroborates a previous theoretical relationship and discusses the validity of Bouchet's hypothesis.

Biophysikalische Veränderungen der Produktionsbedingungen zwingen Landwirte zur Anpassung ihrer klimasensiblen Produktionsprozesse. Eine ökonomische Bewertung dieser strategischen Alternativen ist angesichts der Unsicherheiten durch den Klimawandel von hoher Bedeutung. Mit nur wenigen empirischen Studien befindet sich die Forschung in diesem Bereich jedoch noch im Anfangsstadium. Die vorliegende Studie zielt auf die Entwicklung eines integrierten ökonomischen Rahmens für die Bewertung von Anpassungsoptionen ab. Die theoretische und ökonometrische Analyse wird dabei anhand (1) einer prozessorientierten Analyse von Produktionsverfahren und Anpassungsoptionen auf Basis der Theorie der Betriebslehre sowie (2) eines hedonischen (Ricardianischen) Ansatzes, basierend auf der Theorie zu Landrenten und Veränderungen des Nettobetriebseinkommens, in Abhängigkeit von klimatischen Variablen durchgeführt. Die Analyse von Input-Output-Verhältnissen der Reisproduktion basiert auf einer umfassenden Befragung von 300 „klimaangepassten“ Landwirten über acht Jahre in Bangladesch. Es werden insgesamt 14 Anpassungsoptionen für zwei Anbauperioden von Reis identifiziert. Eine Kombination der Methoden ermöglicht dabei drei Vorteile: (1) Eine geringere Ressourcennutzung in Kombination mit einer moderaten produktiven Leistung und einem hohen Nettoeinkommen, (2) eine Verringerung von Treibhausgasemissionen sowie (3) einen klimaangepassten Betrieb. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich Temperaturänderungen in beiden Perioden negativ auf das Betriebseinkommen auswirken. Niederschlagsänderungen sind in allen Modellen signifikant und positiv zu bewerten. Die Studie zeigt eindeutig, dass eine sukzessive Anpassung das Betriebsergebnis signifikant erhöhen und zu einer Steigerung des Betriebseinkommens beitragen kann. Durch die Modellierung der Auswirkungen verschiedener Szenarien des Klimawandels auf das Nettobetriebseinkommen werden die nachteiligen Effekte auf zukünftige Betriebseinkommen aufgezeigt.
The bio-physical change in the production environment has directed farmers towards strategic alternatives for farming practices. The economic assessment of these adaptation options is of great importance in facing the uncertainty of climate change. However, the economic assessment of farm-level adaptation options remains in its infancy with few empirical studies. The study framework analyzes economic implications of alternative farming activities relating to climate change in several dimensions. The theoretical and empirical economic approach of the study can be characterized in two distinct ways: (1) the process-based approach following farm management theory by production performance analysis and the appraisal of adaptation and (2) the hedonic (Ricardian) approach based on land rent theory and the change in net farm income in relation to climatic variables. The analysis of input-output relations of rice farming was done based on an intensive survey of 300 adapted farmers in Bangladesh over 8 years at different climate thresholds. The study assesses different adaptation options for two rice growing seasons, namely Boro and Amon. These options are (1) low resource use, moderate productive performance and high farm net income, (2) minimum GHG production and (3) farms coping with changing climatic conditions. The study reveals that marginal impacts of temperature on farm net income are negative for all seasons. The marginal impacts of rainfall were found to be positive and significant for all models in the study. It is also evident from the analysis that successive adaptation significantly increases farm productivity and contributes to the revival of farm revenue up to a threshold level. Finally, based on estimated climate variability models of farm net income, the study presents a model that simulates according to future climate change scenarios. It indicates adverse effects of climate change on future farm income.

This research developed mathematical models to generate reliable future rainfall data in small spatial and temporal scales, and used them to estimate future floods and water quality scenarios. Outcomes of the study suggested a substantial increase in the occurrences and the extent of future floods and the amount of pollutant that they carry. Outcomes will be highly valued in future-proofing urban flood mitigation measures and water sensitive urban design infrastructure.

This project was a step forward in developing new knowledge relating to the optimisation of the flood mitigation measures adaptation against climate change and urbanisation impacts by considering their uncertainty. The generic outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to the optimisation of design of flood mitigation measures into the future based on costs and the capability to reduce the flood damage.

In a world that is increasingly urbanised, cities are recognised as critical sites for tackling problems of climate change, both by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing the impacts of changing climate conditions. Unlike climate change mitigation, adaptation does not have one clear, commonly agreed collective goal. Governing and making decisions on climate adaptation in cities entails contestation over knowledge, values and preferences. Currently, the two dominant conceptualisations of adaptation are as cycles or pathways. Do these models adequately theorise what can be empirically observed in cities as to how climate adaptation is undertaken? Most research on urban climate adaptation emanates from the Global North, where political, scientific, economic and administrative systems are well established and well resourced. There is a dearth of empirical research from cities of the Global South contributing to the development of urban climate adaptation theory. This thesis contributes to addressing this gap in two ways. Firstly, by drawing on both conceptual and methodological resources from the field of organisational studies, notably the streams and rounds models of decision making, organisational ethnography and processual case research. Secondly, by conducting empirical case study research on three processes of city scale climate adaptation in Cape Town, South Africa, a growing city facing many development challenges where the local government began addressing climate adaptation over ten years ago. The three adaptation processes studied are: the preparation and adoption of city-wide sectoral climate adaptation plans; the creation of a City Development Strategy with climate resilience as a core goal; and the inclusion of climate change projections into stormwater masterplans. Data were gathered through interviews, participant observation, focus groups and document review, through embedded research within a formal knowledge co-production partnership between the University of Cape Town and the City of Cape Town government. Processual analysis and applied thematic analysis were used to test models of adaptation and decision making against data from the three case studies. The findings suggest that both the cycles and pathways models of climate adaptation inadequately represent the contested and contingent nature of decision making that prevail within the governance systems of cities such as Cape Town. Based on ethnographic knowledge of how Cape Town's local government undertakes climate adaptation, it is argued that the rounds model of decision making provides conceptual tools to better understand and represent how the process of climate adaptation in cities is undertaken; tools that can be used to enhance the pathways model. The study concludes that progress in adapting cities to a changing climate is currently constrained by both the problems and potential solutions or interventions being too technical for most politicians to deal with and prioritize and too political for most technical and administrative officials to design and implement. It calls for urban climate adaptation to be understood as distributed across a multitude of actors pursuing concurrent, discontinuous processes, and thereby focus needs to be on fostering collaboration and coordination, rather than fixating on single actors, policies, plans or projects.

The governance of climate change adaptation presents a paradox: Climate change is a global risk, yet vulnerability is locally experienced. In order to address this paradox, debates in environmental governance need to find ways of integrating local perceptions of risk with global risk assessments. But how can local inclusiveness be achieved in the context of global environmental risks, and what kinds of institutions are needed? Accordingly, this thesis looks at three inter-related concepts from the social sciences that address the challenge of inclusive policy making, but are as yet under-examined in the context of climate change adaptation: (i) Participation, drawing from development studies; (ii) Expertise, drawing from Science and Technology Studies (STS); and (iii) Deliberation, drawing from political science. It is argued that these concepts have not been sufficiently advanced to take account of the challenges raised by the ‘adaptation paradox.’ The hypothesis of this thesis is that this paradox gives rise to a globalised discourse on adaptation that restricts discussion of risk to ‘global’ and technical expertise, and is not open to localised vulnerability-based knowledge about how risks are experienced. This hypothesis is tested by asking: i) What is the evidence that conflicting definitions of climate risk inhibit inclusive adaptation policy making? And ii) Under what circumstances is local inclusiveness achieved under global climate change policy frameworks? This study collects and analyses a new set of data on the main avenue for the inclusion of vulnerable groups in adaptation policy making: National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs). Through a detailed empirical case study analysis of the NAPA process in Bangladesh and Nepal, this study examines the evidence that NAPAs achieved inclusiveness, and the circumstances of more inclusive decisionmaking. This data suggests Nepal took a more inclusive approach to NAPA preparation than Bangladesh; and that this was a result of the choices around how to ‘do inclusiveness’ that were in turn influenced by the historical and political contexts within which these decisions were made. Based on these findings, the thesis argues that current approaches to ‘local inclusiveness’ in global adaptation policy need to pay more attention to the deliberative component of participatory policy making, in terms of how deliberative institutions can shape participatory spaces, and how history and politics have in turn shaped how deliberation takes place in each location.

This dissertation investigates the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate change policies. Although most theoretical frameworks on policy adoption highlight the roles of extreme events as exogenous factors influencing policy change, most studies tend to focus on the effects of extreme events on policy change at the national level. Additionally, the existing theoretical frameworks explaining local policy adoption and public service provision do not pay attention to the roles of extreme events in local governments' policy choices. To fill those gaps, this dissertation explores the roles of natural disasters and political institutions on municipal governments' climate change policies. It does this by applying the theory of focusing events to local climate mitigation and adaptation actions. Based on the policy change framework, the political market model, and the institutional collective action frameworks, this dissertation develops and tests hypotheses to examine the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation policies. The dissertation uses 2010 National League of Cities (NLC) sustainability surveys and the 2010 International City/County Management Association (ICMA) sustainability survey to test the hypotheses. Analytical results show that floods and droughts influence local climate change policies and suggest that local governments can take advantage of extreme events when initiating a policy change. The results also suggest that political institutions can shape the effects of natural disasters on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation actions.

This thesis addresses two important issues of environmental and resource economics: how agricultural households adapt to climate change (CC) and how the households recover from climate hazards. Chapter 1 attempts to enunciate the perspective of the overall research and the rationale for researching on Bangladesh. It summarizes the global evidences of CC and disaster, their impacts, vulnerabilities in agriculture sector, significance of adaptation and poverty impact of disaster. Chapter 2 examines whether crop choice is affected by CC and the extent to which households switch their crops in response to the CC scenarios. It finds that crop choice is climate-sensitive and a shift in crop choices will take place in Bangladesh in response to CC scenarios. This research also finds that crop choice will be more sensitive to change in temperature than change in rainfall. Chapter 3 examines the effect of CC on crop diversification and the households’ response to CC scenarios. It finds that crop diversity is climate sensitive and this diversity in different locations varies with climatic conditions. Effects of rainfall scenarios on crop diversity are much lower compared to the effects of temperature. Chapter 4 investigates the impact of cyclone on consumption and income dynamics in a quasi-experimental setting and finds that low income people are more sensitive of their asset loss to income generation compared to the high income people, and disaster causes income loss, but, people show their resilience in accelerating higher income growth compared to the non-affected areas. Chapter 5 examines poverty group dynamics in the post-shock period and the existence of a poverty trap in the cyclone affected coastal region of Bangladesh. It finds that asset loss or asset holding impacts the dynamism of the poverty groups and poverty traps exists at low levels of income in the disaster affected areas compared to the unaffected areas.

As urban populations continue to grow around the world, cities and their residents become increasingly vulnerable to climate change risks. Detrimental impacts on natural ecosystems have been observed in the built environment, as well as poorer quality of life. As urban areas are characterised by complex adaptive systems, the concept of ecosystem services represents an important tool for the management of urban socio-environmental quality and can be applied to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This thesis investigates London’s potential resilience to climate changes through ecosystem services management. In particular, the socioecological capacity of the All London Green Grid for contributing to climate change resilience via patterns of green spaces, and carbon storage and sequestration through urban street trees, will be the central focus in the research. This capacity was assessed firstly by conducting an evaluation of the landscape metrics of Greater London’s green spaces to determine the extent and quality of green infrastructure, and how this varies according to relevant socioeconomic variables. This was achieved using GIS and the spatial analysis programme FRAGSTATS. This broad-scale evaluation was then supported by greater in-depth field measurements, focusing specifically on street trees, within selected eleven Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), which are an important vehicle for the local management of the ALGG and thereby climate resilience. This local-scale assessment also incorporated greater evaluation of ecosystem service provision by vegetation, and in particular street trees and their capacity for carbon storage and sequestration. Finally, governance of green spaces within BIDs and broader understanding of resilience and climate change was assessed with qualitative research methods, including semi-structured interviews of different agents and agencies involved in the ALGG network. This included investigation of decision-makers’ perspectives on vulnerabilities and the prospects for further developing London green spaces, to determine the feasibility of different management options.

Thesis: M.C.P., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, 2014.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-84).
The need for cities to adapt to climate change is widely acknowledged, yet the question of adaptation finance remains uncertain. Unable to access global climate funds, cities must seek out alternative sources to support their adaptations to climate change. This is particularly challenging for local governments in India, where incomplete fiscal decentralization has resulted in severe developmental deficits and resource constraints. Using Surat, Gujarat, as a case study, this research examines how cities in India might fund climate adaptation despite limited fiscal and administrative autonomy. It furthermore explores how the urban finance system might affect the implementation of climate adaptation strategies at the city level. Evidence comes interviews with key officials, municipal budget data, and public planning documents. The case study suggests that cities can effectively marshal funds from international, national and state sources to invest in climate adaptation. Some of these funding sources explicitly support adaptation, whereas others are linked to broader urban development or disaster risk reduction objectives. The research findings indicate that relying on external sources has required trade-offs between policy agendas, resulting in a fluid understanding of "climate adaptation" on the ground. While the urban finance system appears to have encouraged experimentation in Surat, it may constrain the effectiveness of climate adaptation at the city level. Dependence on intergovernmental transfers and grant aid limits the ability of cities in India to set and maintain local priorities, thereby narrowing the scope for effective and sustainable climate adaptation outcomes. Limited fiscal autonomy has hindered access to alternative sources to finance, such as public-private partnerships and municipal bonds. It has also contributed to a project-based approach that may compromise a longer-range and more comprehensive vision for adapting to climate change. In this setting, experimentation and innovation in financing climate adaptation at the city level will be crucial to moving forward. Keywords: urban climate adaptation, municipal finance, multilevel climate governance, India.
by Toral Patel.
M.C.P.

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers' adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the choice of crop modelling approach and; (4) simpli�ed the representation of farming adaptation strategies. This research aimed to assess climate change impacts on global crop yield that accounts for the knowledge gaps listed above, based on the further development and application of the global crop model PEGASUS. Four main research topics are presented. First, I investigated the roles of extreme heat stress at anthesis on crop yield and uncertainties related to the use of seventy-two climate change scenarios. I showed large disparities in impacts across regions as extreme temperatures adversely a�ects major areas of crop production and lower income countries, the latter appear likely to face larger reduction in crop yields. Second, I coordinated the �rst global gridded crop model intercomparison study, comparing simulations of crop yield and water use under climate change. I found modelled global average crop water productivity increases by up to 17�20.3% when including carbon fertilisation e�ects, but decreases to {28�13.9% when excluding them; and identi�ed fundamental uncertainties and gaps in our understanding of crop response to elevated carbon dioxide. Third, to link climate impacts with adaptation, I introduced the recently developed concept of representative agricultural pathways and examined their potential use in models to explore farming adaptation options within biophysical and socio-economic constraints. Finally, I explored tradeo�s between increasing nitrogen fertiliser use to close the global maize yield gap and the resulting nitrous oxide emissions. I found global maize production increases by 62% based on current harvested area using intensive rates of nitrogen fertiliser. This raises the share of nitrous oxide emissions associated with maize production from 20 to 32% of global cereal related emissions. Finally, these results demonstrated that in some regions increasing nitrogen fertiliser application, without addressing other limiting factors such as soil nutrient imbalance and water scarcity, could raise nitrous oxide emissions without enhancing crop yield.

The recent threat of climate change has exacerbated the inherent risks in smallholder farming such as soil degradation, resulting in an unprecedented decline in agricultural yields in developing countries. This has threatened the livelihoods of large segments of populations that are heavily dependent on agriculture for survival in these regions. This dissertation focuses on identifying barriers and enablers of effective management of these risks, with an aim of coming up with potential policy interventions that can reduce vulnerability to the mentioned risks. To achieve this, the dissertation utilizes various methods and approaches as well as diverse datasets in two countries in sub Saharan Africa i.e. Namibia and Kenya. Diversification into non-farm activities is seen by many as a risk management strategy in rural areas where highly variable low farm incomes are transformed into stable high non-farm incomes, thus improving the welfare of the rural populations. While this theory of change is uncontested, the importance that the agricultural sector plays as a source of livelihood for rural populations, as well as food provisioning for urban populations, cannot be downplayed. This is more so given the limited non-farm opportunities in developing countries and the exponential population growth in these countries. The two factors combined impede on the envisioned transformation of rural production sectors and also create a sub-population of food insecure urban poor due to rural-urban migration. To mitigate these problems, rural agricultural development is still paramount and strategies that enhance resilience to risks in the sector are still vital. Chapter 2 of this dissertation focuses on this issue and addresses how farm diversification can be leveraged for improved food security in the rural areas, which has potential spill-over effects to other segments of the population. Focusing on northern Namibia, the study evaluates how different levels of diversification in both crop and livestock farming affect household food security outcomes i.e. per capita food expenditure and dietary diversity score. The study employs relatively new econometric methods in these type of studies to evaluate the joint determinants to both crop and livestock diversification, as well as their singular and joint effect on mentioned food security outcomes. The results show that high levels of diversification in either enterprise leads to high food security outcomes. Combined with climate change adaptation strategies that create resilience of agricultural production to climatic shocks, the use of sustainable agricultural intensification practices can further enhance productivity in the sector. Inputs like inorganic fertilizer, organic manure and improved seeds can further build on resilient systems to improve yields. Chapter 3 of this dissertation addresses this issue by looking at whether changes in the larger agri-food systems can be used to incentivize take up of such practices at the farm level. The study evaluates how the emergence of large traders in smallholder grain markets can drive the uptake of inorganic and organic fertilizer and improved seeds. The study thus expands the intervention space available to policy makers who have in the past resorted to potentially distortionary direct policies in the input markets e.g. through subsidy provision, as well as in the output markets e.g. through regulation of prices. To achieve this, the study uses a large panel dataset from Kenya spanning over a decade to evaluate how engagements between farmers and these market actors can be leveraged to drive adoption of these sustainable intensification inputs. Results show that engagements between large grain traders and farmers enhance use of inorganic fertilizer. There is no evidence that these engagements lead to enhanced use of improved seeds or manure. However, past use of improved seeds and manure are shown to affect their subsequent use, implying path dependency in the use of these sustainable inputs hence low dis-adoption rates. Traditional technology adoption studies show that access to information is a critical success factor for the uptake of new technology. Proxy variables for information access, for example proximity to extension services or frequency of extension contact, have consistently been shown to be positively correlated with technology adoption. In the context of climate change, access to weather information can be a critical factor to adoption of adaptation technology. Chapter 4 of this dissertation deals with this issue and assesses whether provision of weather information to farmers can enhance adoption of improved farming technologies that are resilient to climatic shocks. The study focuses on northern Namibia where access to such information, as the study shows, is very limited. A framed experiment approach is utilised to evaluate how climate change-induced uncertainty affects farmers' decision making in a farming season, based on their elicited behavioural attitudes towards risk and uncertainty. Further, the study tests whether providing weather information that reduces this uncertainty leads to adoption of technologies that are welfare improving. Lastly, the demand for weather information is assessed by eliciting the willingness to pay for information under various levels of weather uncertainty. Results indicate that high levels of uncertainty dampen uptake of welfare improving technologies, regardless of individual attitudes towards uncertainty. Availing of weather information leads to welfare improving technology choice, given the prevailing levels of weather uncertainty. There is also a high demand for weather information which is shown to increase with increase in the level of weather uncertainty. The chapters in the dissertation therefore identify key policy variables that can be used to manage vulnerability to risks emanating from climate change and unsustainable production in smallholder farming. Access to comprehensive climate information encompassing weather information and climate change-specific management information on both crop and livestock farming is shown to be a key factor in the uptake of adaptation strategies like use of resilient inputs and farm diversification. Interventions along the value chain like teaming up with large market actors in a private-public engagement is shown to be a potential pathway towards enhancing uptake of sustainable intensification inputs. Other policy variables like credit provision, high education and access to off-farm incomes are also key in explaining uptake of risk management strategies by smallholder farmers in Namibia and Kenya.

Climate change is currently threatening the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. Psychological models have been developed to identify factors associated with adapting to climate change; however, little work has investigated the role of farmers’ risk attitudes in these models. We assessed perceptions of adaptation cost and adaptation intentions for five drought- specific adaptive behaviors among 550 farmers from 12 villages in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, as well as their attitudes toward risk. Results suggest that perceived adaptation cost and risk attitude are negatively associated with adaptation intentions. The conditional effect of adaptation cost on adaptation intention as a function of risk attitude was also investigated. Results showed that only farmers with risk averse attitudes were impacted by their perceptions of adaptation costs. These findings have implications for those interested in increasing adaptive practices of farmers in developing countries who face increasingly scarce water supplies.

Climate change is a global process that will impact local places in heterogeneous and unpredictable manners. This dissertation considers whose knowledge and observations could contribute to conservation and climate adaptation planning, how perceptions influence social-ecological feedbacks, and how science could be more relevant to decision-makers and local residents. In Chapter 2, I report on interviews (n=36) conducted with ranchers and recreation-based business owners in Colorado to understand their self-perceptions of resilience and vulnerability. I find that ranchers perceive more exposure and sensitivity to climate change and they also demonstrate more adaptive capacity than recreation businesses. In Chapter 3, I convey results from interviews (n=83) completed with various long-term residents of the region surrounding Denali National Park and Preserve. I find that people who have more direct and ongoing experience with natural resources (subsistence users, bus drivers, business owners) have a greater number and more diverse observations of change than Park employees or scientists. In Chapter 4, I describe results from interviews (n=26) with community-defined Gunnison Sage-grouse experts. I find that formal and observational experts had very different explanations of the decline of Gunnison Sage-grouse and disagreed about potential conservation strategies. In Chapter 5, I describe multi-method surveys (41) conducted with ranchers in the Gunnison Basin to understand their perceptions of the potential listing of the Gunnison Sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act, and their planned responses. I find that ranchers tend to have negative perceptions of the listing and that they plan to take actions, including sales of land and water and decreased participation in conservation efforts, which may result in harm to the Gunnison Sage-grouse. In Chapter 6, I review stakeholder-generated climate change needs assessments (63) to assess the suggestions made to make science more relevant to decision-making. Their suggestions include: interdisciplinary approaches, place-based focus, increased data-sharing and collaboration, and user-driven research. This dissertation demonstrates the importance of understanding perceptions for effective conservation and adaptation, identifies the existence of proactive adaptation strategies, highlights the value of local knowledge in specific situations, and reveals how failure to engage local people may lead to inequitable outcomes.