Academic literature on the topic 'Clean-in-place (CIP) risk analysis'

Objective: To assess the prevalence of contrast-induced nephropathy and its associated risk factors in patients undergoing multi-vessel percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Study Design: Observational/ Prospective study Place and Duration: Armed forces institute of cardiology & National Institute of heart diseases, Rawalpindi, during from the period September 2019 to Feb 2020. Methods: There were 112 patients of both genders with ages 18-75 years were presented in this study. Data on enrolled patients' age, gender, BMI, marital status and education level were collected after receiving written permission from each patient. This research included people who had undergone a percutaneous coronary intervention. Serum creatinine >0.5mg/dl from the baseline value was classified as contrast induced nephropathy. CIN-related risk factors were studied. Data was analyzed using SPSS 24.0. Results: The mean age of the patients was 51.6±9.53 years and had mean BMI 23.5±15.67 kg/m2. Majority were males 68 (60.7%) and 44 (39.3%) were females. There were 75 (66.96%) patients married and 55 (49.1%) patients were educated. Frequency of contrast induced nephropathy was among 25 (22.3%) cases. Most common risk factor of CIP was contrast volume 19 (76%) and hypertension found in 17 (68%) cases, followed by diabetes mellitus in 15 (60%) cases, age >65 years in 13 (52%) cases, CHF in 11 (44%) cases, smoking history in 9 (36%) cases and family history of CAD was 4 (16%). Conclusion: Patients undergoing PCI are at a considerable risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy. Among the risk variables for CIN were anaemia (age >70 years), diabetes mellitus (contrast volume >150 ml), and heart failure. Keywords: Risk Factors, Contrast Induced Nephropathy, Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Objective: To assess the prevalence of contrast-induced nephropathy and its associated risk factors in patients undergoing multi-vessel percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Study Design: Observational/ Prospective study Place and Duration: Armed forces institute of cardiology & National Institute of heart diseases, Rawalpindi, during from the period September 2019 to Feb 2020. Methods: There were 112 patients of both genders with ages 18-75 years were presented in this study. Data on enrolled patients' age, gender, BMI, marital status and education level were collected after receiving written permission from each patient. This research included people who had undergone a percutaneous coronary intervention. Serum creatinine >0.5mg/dl from the baseline value was classified as contrast induced nephropathy. CIN-related risk factors were studied. Data was analyzed using SPSS 24.0. Results: The mean age of the patients was 51.6±9.53 years and had mean BMI 23.5±15.67 kg/m2. Majority were males 68 (60.7%) and 44 (39.3%) were females. There were 75 (66.96%) patients married and 55 (49.1%) patients were educated. Frequency of contrast induced nephropathy was among 25 (22.3%) cases. Most common risk factor of CIP was contrast volume 19 (76%) and hypertension found in 17 (68%) cases, followed by diabetes mellitus in 15 (60%) cases, age >65 years in 13 (52%) cases, CHF in 11 (44%) cases, smoking history in 9 (36%) cases and family history of CAD was 4 (16%). Conclusion: Patients undergoing PCI are at a considerable risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy. Among the risk variables for CIN were anaemia (age >70 years), diabetes mellitus (contrast volume >150 ml), and heart failure. Keywords: Risk Factors, Contrast Induced Nephropathy, Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

One of the most effective methods for cleaning soil and water bodies from oil and oil products is the biotechnological method using oil-degrading bacteria. However, their production is a rather complicated process, during which many unfavorable factors act on the human body. The paper considers the process of cleaning an industrial fermenter with a CIP (Cleaning in Place) contactless cleaning system. An automatic metering valve for supplying direct steam during sterilization has been proposed. This reduces the human factor and the risk of workers being poisoned by surfactant species used to clean the fermenter.

The reverse osmosis seawater desalination plants open-intake requires different strategies of pre-treatment to reduce the biofouling and scaling. The UltraFiltration (UF) technology is a recent application to this process. In this work, some alternatives to chemical products reducing in chemically enhanced backwash (CEB) and clean in place (CIP) of a UF rack have been studied. Mainly the sodium hypochlorite consumption, due to its biofouling precursor effect over reverse osmosis membranes. For this purpose, the optimal filtration time has been studied, to get the highest water production prior to the CIP, as well as some modifications in the conventional CIP's, modifying the duration of the stages of the same. The results were compared with the current mode of daily operation of the CEB. The results show that a reduction of up to 60% in the amount of sodium hypochlorite per cubic meter of water produced employed in UF CEB's, mini CIP's and CIP's can be achieved. However, the consumption of the rest of chemical dosing increased notably, and therefore the operating cost of UF also increased. In addition, there was an increase of desalted water consumption to the chemical products removed, up to almost 95,84 %, in comparison with the currently operational mode of CEB. On the other hand, operating the UF plant in the manner proposed requires a automatization of the process and expert staff to programme the control. Therefore, based on the results obtained, the alternatives proposed could reduce the chemical products in use, but it is not conclusive in terms of exploitation operational costs. Key Words: Ultrafiltration, Reverse osmosis, Open-intake, Clean in place, Chemically Enhanced Backwash, chemical products reduction, biofouling, pre-treatment.

The paper presents the results concerning the influence of concentration and storage time on the equilibrium surface tension of chemical solutions used in a clean-in place (CIP) system. Standard cleaning solutions (prepared under laboratory conditions) and industrial solutions (used in a CIP system in a brewery) were subjected to tests. Solutions from the brewery were collected after being regenerated and changes in equilibrium surface tension were studied during a three-month storage. In the statistical analysis of the solutions, standard deviations were determined in relation to the averages, and a Tukey’s multiple comparison test was performed to determine the effect of dependent variables on the surface tension of solutions. From the results, a nonlinear regression model was developed that provided a mathematical description of the kinetics of changes in the wetting properties of the solutions during their storage. A linear–logarithmic function was adopted to describe the regeneration. Numerical calculations were performed based on the nonlinear least squares method using the Gauss–Newton algorithm. The adequacy of the regression models with respect to the empirical data was verified by the coefficient of determination R and the standard error of estimation Se. The results showed that as the concentration of the substance in the cleaning solution increased, its wetting properties decreased. The same effect was observed with increased storage time as the greatest changes occurred during the first eight weeks. The study also showed that the use of substances to stabilize the cleaning solutions prevented deterioration of their wetting properties, regardless of the concentration of the active substance or storage time.

Abstract Background Reveal® 3-D for Peanut is an immunochromatographic, lateral flow test for qualitative detection of peanut residue in food manufacturing and food preparation settings. The test can detect low ppm levels of peanut in clean-in-place (CIP) rinses and in swabs from environmental surfaces and can serve as a tool in managing allergen risk. Objective The objective of the study was to validate the lateral flow method for detection of peanut in CIP rinses, specifically water, peroxyacetic acid/hydrogen peroxide, and quaternary ammonium compound rinses, and in swabs taken from stainless steel and plastic surfaces. Methods CIP rinses spiked with low levels of peanut were tested, as were surfaces inoculated with peanut. Specificity and assay interference were assessed in testing of food commodities with and without added peanut. Assay robustness and test kit stability and consistency testing were also performed. Results Results demonstrated that the lateral flow test can detect peanut in CIP rinses in the range of 2–4 ppm and in environmental surface swabs in the range of 3–4 µg/100 cm2. Results of specificity testing with 29 common food items showed lack of cross-reactivity, and potential assay interference only from walnut. Data from stability trials supports expiration dating for the kit of up to 23 months post-manufacture. Conclusions and Highlights The lateral flow test is a sensitive, specific, and rapid method for detection of low levels of peanut residue in CIP rinses and environmental samples and can be an important component in a comprehensive allergen risk management program.

Comorbidity influences screening practice, treatment choice, quality of life, and survival. The presence of comorbidities and medication use could place patients at greater risks of adverse effects from certain interventions. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study in the General Practice Research Database to better understand comorbidities and medication use in men with or at risk of prostate cancer (CaP). Compared with men with similar age but no CaP, CaP patients had higher incidence of urinary tract infection, impotence and breast disorder, and 2.6-fold higher all-cause mortality. Among men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) but no CaP, the mortality rates were slightly lower, and fewer differences in comorbidities and medication use were noted compared to men without elevated PSA. Many prevalent comorbidities and medications were consistent across groups and are typical of an older male population. These real-world data are broadly applicable throughout the drug development cycle and subsequent patient management.

Background: Hepatitis A outbreaks were reported by the Lamongan District Health Office to the Surabaya Center for Environmental Health and Disease Control Engineering on January 16, 2018, indicated by an increase in hepatitis A cases in of G and S areas, B village. One of initial sufferer was students in High School X.. Purpose: This study aims to identify the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A outbreaks that occur in High School X and the risk factors. Methods: The investigation was carried out in an observational manner with a cross sectional approach. Data were collected by structured interviews, hepatitis A antibodies in blood samples assay, environmental observation, and water samples assay. Data were collected with purposive determination of respondents. Results: Hepatitis A outbreaks at High School X in Lamongan District take place from November 2017 to january 2018, with a target group of 33 students. The epidemic cased tends to be extend common source. Risk factors are contact history with patients, eating habits together in same place, mutual exchange and sharing same eating utensils, the lack of hygiene habit (such as washing hands with soap for students and food handlers), lack of hand washing facilities, bad sanitation, bad food hygiene management, and inadequate clean and hygienis water source. Conclusion: The outbreaks of hepatitis A was extended with the most important risk factors, i.e. lack of personal hygiene and sanitation of water sources.

AbstractIn Afghanistan, acute respiratory infection (ARI) is a leading cause of under-five mortality. Previous studies on the effects of cooking fuel on ARI have only looked at the types of cooking fuel, and not the effects of the location of the cooking place. The present study aimed to assess the effects of fuel type and place of cooking on the prevalence of ARI among under-five children in Afghanistan. Descriptive statistics and multilevel logistic regression analysis were performed for 31,063 children using data from the first round of the Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2015. Overall, 13% of the children suffered from ARI symptoms in the 2 weeks before the survey, but this varied widely across the country. The multilevel analysis showed that, compared with households using clean cooking fuel in a separate building or outside, households using clean cooking fuel within the house and without a separate kitchen had a 32% lower risk [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.51–0.91] of having under-five children with ARI, and those using clean fuel in a separate kitchen in the house had a 17% lower risk (95% CI=0.67–1.03). On the other hand, households using polluting cooking fuel in the house without a kitchen had a 14% (95% CI=0.91–1.44) higher risk of having under-five children with ARI, and those using polluting cooking fuel in the house with a separate kitchen had a 5% (95% CI=0.85–1.30) higher risk, after adjusting for other covariates. The findings indicate that type of cooking fuel is not the only issue affecting ARI in children. Place of cooking (in a house with or without a separate kitchen versus outside) also affects the risk of ARI among under-five children. The study also found that mother’s education and occupational status, community poverty and ethnicity are other important factors affecting the prevalence of ARI in under-five children in Afghanistan.

The food and pharmaceutical industry are generally a nation’s largest manufacturing sector – and importantly one of the most stable. Clean-In-Place (CIP)² is a ubiquitous process in milk processing as thorough cleaning of wet surfaces of equipment is an essential part of daily operations. Faulty cleaning can have serious consequences as milk acts as an excellent substrate in which unwanted micro-organisms can grow and multiply rapidly. Davey & Cerf (2003) introduced the notion of Friday 13th Syndrome³ i.e. the unexpected failure of a well-operated process plant by novel application of Uncertainty Failure Modelling (Davey, 2010; 2011). They showed that failure cannot always be put down to human error or faulty fittings but could be as a result of stochastic changes inside the system itself. In this study a novel CIP failure model based on the methodology of Davey and co-workers is developed using the published models of Bird & Fryer (1991); Bird (1992) and Xin (2003); Xin, Chen & Ozkan (2004) for the first time. The aim was to gain insight into conditions that may lead to unexpected failure of an otherwise well-operated CIP plant. CIP failure is defined as failure to remove proteinaceous deposits on wet surfaces in the auto-set cleaning time. The simplified two-stage model of Bird & Fryer (1991) and Bird (1992) was initially investigated. This model requires input of the thickness of the deposit (δ = 0.00015 m) and the temperature and Re of the cleaning solution (1.0-wt% NaOH). The deposit is considered as two layers: an upper layer of swelled deposit which can be removed (xδ) by the shear from the circulating cleaning solution and a lower layer (yδ) that is not yet removable. The output parameters of particular interest are the rate of deposit removal (R) and total cleaning time (t[subscript]T) needed to remove the deposit. The more elaborate three-stage model of Xin (2003) and Xin, Chen & Ozkan (2004) is based on a polymer dissolution process. This model requires input values of temperature of the cleaning solution (T), critical mass of the deposit (m[subscript]c) and cleaning rate (R[subscript]m). The output parameters of particular interest are the rate of removal during swelling and uniform stage (R[subscript]SU), the rate of removal during decay stage (R[subscript]D) and the total cleaning time needed to remove the deposit (t[subscript]T). The two CIP models are appropriately formatted and simulations used to validate them as a unit-operation. A risk factor (p) together with a practical process tolerance is defined in terms of the auto-set CIP time to remove a specified deposit and the actual cleaning time as affected by stochastic changes within the system (t[subscript]T'). This is computationally convenient as it can be articulated so that all values p > 0 highlight an unwanted outcome i.e. a CIP failure. Simulations for the continuous CIP unit-operation are carried out using Microsoft Excel™ spreadsheet with an add-in @Risk™ (pronounced ‘at risk’) version 5.7 (Palisade Corporation) with some 100,0004 iterations from Monte Carlo sampling of input parameters. A refined Latin Hypercube sampling is used because ‘pure’ Monte Carlo samplings can both over- and under-sample from various parts of a distribution. Values of the input parameters took one of the two forms. The first was the traditional Single Value Assessment (SVA) as defined by Davey (2011) in which a single, ‘best guess’ or mean value of the parameter is used. The output therefore is a single value. The alternate form was a Monte Carlo Assessment (MCA) (Davey, 2011) in which the ‘best guess’ values take the form of a probability distribution around the mean value. Many thousands of randomly sampled values for each input parameter are obtained using Monte Carlo sampling. Generally, in QRA the input parameters take the form of a distribution of values. The output therefore is a distribution of values with each assigned a probability of actually occurring. The values of all inputs are carefully chosen for a realistic simulation of CIP. Results reveal that a continuous CIP unit-operation is actually a mix of successful cleaning operations along with unsuccessful ones, and that these can tip unexpectedly. For example for the unit-operations model of Bird & Fryer (1991) and Bird (1992) failure to remove a proteinaceous milk deposit (δ = 0.00015 m) can occur unexpectedly in 1.0% of all operations when a tolerance of 6% is allowed on the specified auto-set cleaning time (t[subscript]T = 914 s) with a cleaning solution temperature of 60 °C. Using Xin, Chen & Ozkan (2004) model as the underlying unit-operation some 1.9% of operations at a nominal mid-range cleaning solution temperature of 75 °C could fail with a tolerance of 2% on the auto-set CIP time (t[subscript]T = 448 s). Extensive analyses of comparisons of the effect of structure of the two CIP unit-operations models on predictions at similar operating conditions i.e. 2% tolerance on the auto-set clean time (~ 656 s) and 1%-sd in the nominal mean temperature of the NaOH cleaning solution at 65 °C, highlighted that the underlying vulnerability to failure of the simplified model of Bird & Fryer (1991) and Bird (1992) was 1.8 times that of the more elaborate model of Xin (2003) and Xin, Chen & Ozkan (2004). The failure analysis presented in this thesis represents a significant advance over traditional analysis in that all possible practical scenarios that could exist operationally are computed and rigorous quantitative evidence is produced to show that a continuous CIP plant is actually a mix of failed cleaning operations together with successful ones. This insight is not available from traditional methods (with or without sensitivity analysis). Better design and operating decisions can therefore be made because the engineer has a picture of all possible outcomes. The quantitative approach and insight presented here can be used to test re-designs to reduce cleaning failure through changes to the plant including improved temperature and auto-set time control methods. 2 see Appendix A for a definition of some important terms used in this research. 3 Unexpected (unanticipated) failure in plant or product of a well-operated, well-regulated unit-operation. 4 Experience with the models highlighted that stable output values would be obtained with 100,000 iterations (or CIP ‘scenarios’).
Thesis (M.Eng.Sc.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Chemical Engineering, 2012

Since September 11, 2001 (9/11), the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Department of Defense (DoD) have operated together in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere during counterterrorism operations. Although the global war on terrorism provided a common purpose, it was actions taken in the late 1980s and 1990s that set the foundation for their current relationship. Driven by the post–Cold War environment and lessons learned, policy makers made military support the Intelligence Community’s top priority. In response, the CIA and DoD instituted changes that altered their relationship. While congressional debates over the Intelligence Community’s future were occurring, the CIA and DoD were expanding their relationship during operations. By the late 1990s, some policy makers and national security professionals became concerned that intelligence support to military operations had gone too far, weakening long-term analysis. Despite concerns, no major changes to intelligence organization or priorities were implemented. These concerns were forgotten after 9/11, as the United States fought two wars and policy makers fixated on terrorism. The DoD/CIA operational relationship has led to successes, but the CIA’s counterterrorism and military support requirements place a significant burden on the organization. As the sole independent US intelligence organization, the CIA was conceived to separate intelligence collection from the institutions that develop and execute policy. Its increased focus on support to military operations weakens this separation, reduces its focus on strategic issues, and risks subordination to the DoD. The CIA and DoD are the ones affected by this evolving relationship, but policy makers’ preference for military force and the militarization of foreign policy has led both organizations down this path.

This chapter compares the recapitalizations of the Japanese banking sector in the 1990s with those in the ongoing European debt crisis. The analysis points to four main policy implications. First, recapitalizing banks by insuring or purchasing troubled assets alone is not likely to solve the problem of banks’ weak capitalization, as this measure is not able to adjust the extent of the recapitalization to the banks’ specific needs. Second, the amount of the recapitalization should be based on actual capital shortages and not risk-weighted assets to avoid banks decreasing their loan supply. Third, banks should face restrictions regarding the amount of dividends they are allowed to pay out. Finally, banks must be induced to clean up their balance sheets and reduce the amount of bad (non-performing) loans to rebuild confidence in the European banking system.

The purpose of this book is to critically enhance the appreciation of Diplomacy and Sport in global affairs from the perspective of practitioners and scholars. The book will make an important new contribution to at least two distinct fields: Diplomacy and Sport, as well as to those concerned with History, Politics, Sociology, and International Relations. The critical analysis the book provides explores the linkages across these fields, particularly in relation to Soft Power and Public Diplomacy, and is supported by a wide range of sources and methodologies. The book draws in a range of scholars across these different fields, and includes esteemed FIFA scholar Prof. Alan Tomlinson. Tomlinson addresses diplomacy within the world’s global game of Association Football, while other subjects include the rise of Mega Sport Events (MSE) as sites of diplomacy, new consideration of Chinese Ping-Pong Diplomacy prior to the 1970s, the importance of boycotts in sport – particularly in relation to newly explored dimensions of the boycotts of the 1980 and 1984 Olympic Games. The place of non-state actors is explored throughout, be they individual or institutions they perform a crucial role as conduits of the transactions of sport and diplomacy Based on twentieth and twenty-first century evidence, the book acknowledges the antecedents from the ancient Olympics to the contemporary era and in its conclusions offers avenues for further study based on the future Sport and Diplomacy relationship. The book has strong international basis because it covers a broad range of countries, their diplomatic relationship with sport and is written by a truly transnational cast of authors. The intense media scrutiny on the Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, and other international sports will also contribute to the global interest in this volume.

In Portugal, there are countless historic and legislative references about fire use in rural areas. This popular use of fire to manage the huddled of agricultural and forestry leftovers and small burns to clean the farmed lands continues nowadays, to be used in rural environments. However, these environments are becoming depopulated, with aged populations which are often isolated. Every year, in the social media, there are news about fatalities or injuries from elder people when using fire in the landscape. In 2018 the number of incidents were much higher than usual. For that, the objective of this work was to identify which were the factors that could explain this anomaly. To obtain a systematic data of the incidents, a thorough analysis of the regional and national newspapers, both in paper and online, was performed from the years 2008 to 2020. Variables like date, place, sex, age and other were gathered. All the incidents variables were complemented with meteorological data associated with wildfire risk, sociodemographic variables and the legislative context. From 2008 to 2020 there were 44 incidents, with 89% of fatalities. The anomaly of incidents in 2018 corresponded to 45% of cases. Most of the incidents (from 2008 to 2020) happened with elder (75%) and male (82%) people. The predominant months of occurrence were April and October particularly in the year 2018. The majority of fatalities (69%) occurred when the victim was burning alone. Legislative, social and meteorological analysis showed that the most probable factor that lead to the incidents anomaly was the extreme pressure to manage the vegetation, held by police forces, legislation and fines value if you didn’t comply.

This chapter summarizes a series of published papers that used data from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS) to explore the influence of case and organizational characteristics on decisions to place Aboriginal children in out-of-home placements. The premise of the analyses was that these influences were consistent with the framework of the Decision-Making Ecology. In Canada, Aboriginal children are overrepresented at all points of child welfare decision-making: investigation, substantiation, and placement in out-of-home care. Case factors accounting for the overrepresentation of Aboriginal children at all service points in the child welfare system include poverty, poor housing, and substance misuse, and these factors, when coupled with inequitable resources for First Nations children residing on reserves, result in the overrepresentation of Aboriginal children in the Canadian child welfare system. For this study, the authors examine case characteristics and organizational factors in a multilevel context, hypothesizing that children are more likely to be placed out of home in agencies that serve a relatively high proportion of Aboriginal children. According to the statistical models presented, the most important of these factors is whether the provincial government operates the child welfare agency. As with the proportion of Aboriginal children on the caseload, the risk of a child being placed is greater in government-run agencies compared to agencies operated by private funders. Further analysis needs to be conducted to fully understand individual- and organizational-level variables that may influence /decisions regarding placement of Aboriginal children.

Abstract Covid-19 has put social security systems under immense pressure. Governments saw demand for social security rise dramatically whilst attempting to support those whose employment had temporarily stopped once severe economic restrictions were put in place. Drawing on a range of evidence (including original interviews), this chapter focuses on the experience of larger families (households with three or more children) during the pandemic as a way of illuminating how these pandemic-induced policy responses often failed to reach those groups who have been subject to austerity measures over the previous decade. We explore this in three ways. First, we unpack how the government’s response to Covid-19 left larger families in a precarious position. Secondly, we situate the experience of larger families in the context of a wider set of reforms to social security—such as the benefit cap, the two-child limit, and the benefits freeze—which have already pushed even more larger families into poverty over the last decade. The final section of the chapter draws out how these policy decisions exacerbate inequalities between groups, while alluding to implications for protected characteristics as enshrined in the Equality Act 2010. This analysis not only illuminates how the pandemic has increased gender and ethnic inequalities but also suggests that the degree to which the pandemic was inequality-generating is rooted in policy decisions made before the pandemic even began. Avoiding exponential inequalities in response to future crises requires that policies—and the discourses which surround them—are sensitive to the potential for other kinds of societal shock.

Abstract Formation damage by the drill-in fluid has been identified as a major risk for the Dvalin HT gas field. To ensure the long-term stability and mobility of the mud even after an extended suspension time between drill-in and clean-up of the wells, a novel static aging test under downhole temperature and high pressure was conducted. Experiments have shown that the downhole stability is commonly underestimated when the surrounding pressure is lower than in the field. Thus, a high-pressure cylinder was used in vertical orientation in a heating oven with a pressure pump regulating the pressure up to 200 bar. The reservoir section was drilled with the optimized organo-clay-free oil-based drilling fluid (OCFOBDF) specified in the qualification phase. Tracers in the lower completion were used to identify clean-up from the upper high-permeability streak and the deeper (relatively lower) high-permeability streak. Due to extended wait on weather after drilling and completion of the first of the four wells, the lag time until clean-up was almost 11 weeks (74 days). It could be experimentally shown that the qualified OCFOBDF system weighted with micron sized barite remains mobile without phase separation even after static aging at 160 °C and 200 bar for the maximum estimated lag time between drilling and clean-up of 3 months. The absence of a gas cap in the set-up also better represents downhole conditions in the reservoir section and has shown that it improves the fluid´s stability. The clean-up of the well was successful with a maximum flowrate of 3.0 MM Sm3/d. Analysis of the tracers has proven that clean-up was successful for the entire reservoir section, including the deeper part. It could be concluded that in alignment with the lab tests that the mud fulfilled its requirement to be mobile even up to three months. Because of the superior properties, settling of solids (bridging and weighting material) could be avoided, resulting in no blockage of the (lower part of the) reservoir. The use HPHT aging has been the key to proving the long-term stability and mobility of the combined Drill-In and Completion Fluid. This technique falls outside of current API RP testing practices but is believed to be highly beneficial for qualification of fluids that will be left in the lower completion for long periods, especially in open hole completions under high temperature and pressure.

The classical Material Balance (P/Z) plot requires fully shut-in built-up reservoir pressure (Pr) for its calculation by generating static Pr as a function of cumulative gas production (Gp). Shut-in the well only for Pr data acquisition is impractical and creates several issues such as risk of production loss and production disturbance. Mattar & McNeil (1997) introduced Flowing Material Balance approach for gas deliverability monitoring and reserves estimation based on surface well flowing parameter by creating parallel line through the initial Pr to estimate Initial-Gas-In-Place (IGIP). The method is practical for qualitative purpose, but any dynamic behavior of the well will be challenging. Improved model is presented, a Coupled Material Balance - Nodal Analysis approach for gas deliverability monitoring and reserves quantification of connected gas in place volume (CGIP). Initial Pr as a known variable then extended by the decline of Pr as a function of Gp and improved by performing “flowing mode” Nodal Analysis, converting bottom hole flowing pressure from wellhead flowing pressure to determine estimated Pr. Pr uncertainty and its depletion could be identified by sensitivity analysis, such as inflow productivity and water encroachment evolution. This approach has been applied for well T-32 of Tunu field, a mature field in Mahakam, to perform as single-reservoir gas deliverability monitoring by using only flowing parameter data. The “flowing” mode of Pr estimation with actual Gp, gives good performance of CGIP estimation without any shut-in activities, since this well is one of the big gas producer. This model also handled the dynamic activities of operation: well movement, production curtailment and improvement. The unknown variable of continuous water encroachment is also handled by wellbore temperature model which justified with actual data. This improved model could be considered as an alternative approach for gas reserves quantification and gives advantage for production strategy.

Abstract Discovered on the shallowest formation in Myanmar offshore field at 500 meters subsea, this reservoir is perhaps one of the most challenging reservoirs to develop in many aspects such as; risk of fracking to seabed when performing sand control completion, cap rock integrity and risk of breaching due to completion and production activities, reservoir compaction, and depletion-induced subsidence. Generally, the producing reservoirs currently developed in this field sits between 700 to 2500 meter subsea, mTVDss. Cased Hole Gravel Pack (CHGP) as sand control completion method is selected to develop the reservoir from 700 to 1650 mTVDss. None of the shallow reservoirs (shallower than 700 mTVDss approximately) has been developed in the field before, due to some technical challenges previously mentioned. Owing to these reasons, reservoir engineer and well completion team initiated feasibility study focusing on advanced Geomechanical modeling and alternative way of sand control completion combined with full project risk assessment, ultimately, to unlock huge gas reserves trapped in this field. The reservoir is finally developed with infill well and new completion technique ever been used in the company. To develop this shallow reservoir, infill well drilling with sand control completion is required. The technical analysis on the following problems was comprehensively performed to ensure that the reservoir was feasible, doable and viable to develop. Reservoir compaction and subsidence occurring with stress and pressure changes associated with depletions would not create potential hazard to production facilities. Cap-rock is stable with no breaching over entire life of reservoir depletion. No potential fault is reactivated upon depletion. Sand control completion is able to be performed safely with well-confined fracpack (risk of frac growth to seabed). Upon depletion, integrity of casing and cement is acceptable when reservoir is compacted. Full risk assessment aspects of completion operation are scrutinized. These problems were mainly analyzed using coupled 3D Geomechanical model focusing on this shallow reservoir in the area of this particular wellhead platform. Briefly speaking, the 3D Geomechanical model was coupled with reservoir pressure depletion to find stress and displacement of reservoir rock and casing due to production. The methodology is called one-way coupled modeling. To be more precise, the pre-production stress of the reservoir at initial pressure was determined and used to calculate subsequent stress change from depletion (production). Pressure depletion will increase effective stress and hence create deformation of reservoir rock which may induce underground subsidence and casing integrity. On this study, four stress-steps of pressure depletion were computed i.e. initial pressure, 25% depletion, 50% depletion and 75% depletion. On each step, stress equilibrium was simulated using finite element software. This project makes the pending development of shallow reservoir in this field doable and viable. All risks associated with well completion and production-induced depletion were deliberately reviewed and mitigated. Based on this study, the most critical risk is gas leak through seabed due to sand control completion activity (CHGP). Apart from this, the other risks such as seabed subsidence, cap-rock breaching, fault reactivation, and casing integrity upon compaction were consciously addressed, reviewed and prevented. The major risk on sand control completion was finally mitigated. The conventional extension pack was avoided and replaced with the completion technique, a so-called circulating pack. Circulating Pack is one of CHGP technique where the pumping rate and pumping pressure maintained below fracture extension rate and fracture extension pressure. This pumping rate and pumping pressure will not introduce the fracture in the formation but still able to carry proppants and place them in the annular between screen and casing to provide sand control means. Although the sand control performance of circulating pack is not up to High Rate Water Pack (HRWP) or Extension Pack, together with control of minimum drawdown and production rate will enhance the sand control performance and prolong production life. Ultimately, unlock the potential in this shallow reservoir. The well has finally been successfully completed under tailor-made design and real-time data acquisition. The reservoir has been producing successfully with the rate of about 5 MMSCFD with good flowing wellhead pressure at 590 psi similar to the design. Ultimately, this alternative approach enables the development of this shallow reservoir where the new reserves of 20 BSCF has been added to the project. This project can be a good lesson for future development of other shallow reservoirs worldwide.

Abstract The objective of this article is to share an evaluation of the background, drilling outcomes and production and reservoir pressure impacts from two years of monitoring the first commingled up-dip SMART water injector drilled in the Piltun area of the Piltun-Astokhskoye offshore oil and gas field, located in Sakhalin, far east of Russia. The unique aspect of this water injector is that it was drilled into the up-dip gas caps of two separate reservoirs to provide pressure support to commingled oil producers, complementing the down-dip water injectors already in place. This article highlights some details of the well maturation decisions and expectations based on output of the dynamic modelling studies. Drilling outcomes and well performance is compared to expectations. Initial results of the surveillance programme and field data analysis based on a two-year monitoring period are discussed to show intermediate outcomes of up-dip water injection in the Piltun area. Finally, remaining questions and uncertainties are shared. Piltun-Astokhskoye is a complex multi-reservoir offshore oil and gas field with sizeable gas caps, significant heterogeneity both between and within reservoirs and a complex production history involving commingled oil producers and water injectors. Limited data is available to assess the impact of development decisions. Integrated analysis using multiple data sources and back-to-basics geology and reservoir engineering is required to understand how the reservoirs are responding to up-dip water injection, in order to predict future performance and make informed decisions to optimise the Piltun development over the long term. Surveillance data shows that up-dip water injection is effective in increasing reservoir pressure and oil recovery in one of the reservoirs, whilst having little impact on the other. Analysis shows that variable impact is due to the influence of gas cap size on up-dip water injection efficiency and the risk of trapped gas volumes due to water injection into the gas cap. The importance of integration between different sources of surveillance data and analytical tools to complete a comprehensive and reliable analysis is shown.

Abstract Java Island is the most populated island in the world and consists of many sensitive areas include community, fishery site, mangrove and recreational beach. Pertamina EP Cepu Regional 4 (East Indonesia Region) has 2 major offshore oil & gas platform facilities near Java Island shoreline which are Pertamina Hulu Energi WMO Field (WMO Field) and Pertamina EP Sukowati Field (Sukowati Field) that have the potential of releasing more than 100.000 Barrel (total) of crude oil into sea in case of emergency. Learning from previous oil spill event, it is crucial for the company to control risk that could occurs by establishing an effective Oil Spill Contingency Plan (OSCP) document in order develop an effective countermeasure to define action plan to control and clean oil spill. The OSCP starts by identifying operation activities with significant oil spill risk (scenarios). Based on PHE WMO and PEP Sukowati oil spill risk assessment, 8 oil spill scenarios (3 scenario for WMO Field and 5 scenarios for Sukowati Field) are identified as threats related with potential oil spill direct impact to sensitive area and communities. Scenarios identified are then simulated in Oil Spill Trajectory Model Software that involves sea current and wind of local condition to predict oil spill trajectory throughout different seasons of the year resulting calculation of estimated time and place of oil spill impact. The OSCP include sensitivity map to identify resources needed. In addition of risk analysis and oil spill simulation, the OSCP also consists of methodology and technique to specify monitoring, evaluation, mechanical/chemical handling, shoreline protection at different type of area. Major event identified through risk assessment are FSO spill, vessel collision, subsea/export pipeline rupture and well blowout. Major oil spill scenarios occur during West Season (Dec-Feb). According to Field oil spill trajectory simulation, oil spill will reach shoreline 2 to 144 hours after oil spill released. Based on exercise and terrain assessment, the impacted area could be reached in max 60 minutes (Sukowati Field scenario) and 2-3 hours (WMO Field). Each scenario is assessed for oil spill strategy based on time and place of impact, sensitivity, equipment mobilization interval and environment surrounding and determine action needed to contermeasures oil spill impact. The accuracy of the OSCP document implementation and effective emergency intervention will be able to provide a promising responding method to control oil spill pollution.

Abstract Severe Asphaltene deposition is encountered in some wells drilled in newly developed reservoirs of one of Abu Dhabi's giant offshore assets (Field AD), and for the first time, full well plugging with Asphaltene is experienced in the field. While successful curative clean up treatments are regularly made, the relatively high intervention frequency (once every month per well) has impeded the full-scale development of these reservoirs. This study shows how understanding the mechanism of Asphaltene stability/instability in field conditions can unlock the production of under-developed reservoirs (with hundred millions barrels of OIP) by anticipating and considering preventive measures during the design of new wells to limit Asphaltene deposition. In order to prevent the occurrence of Asphaltene deposition from reservoir formation to surface level, a Flow Assurance study was launched by the operating company with close support from the international partner. The objective was to determine the Asphaltene Deposition Phase Envelope (ADE) of the reservoir fluid by measuring onset pressures with Visual (High Pressure ‘HP’ Microscope) and Near Infrared Solid Detection System (SDS) as a function of 2 main variables: Different temperatures to investigate Asphaltene risks over the oil production pathway (at reservoir formation, and from wellbore to surface facilities) & Different Gas compositions to investigate the effect of rich Gas-Cap gas and injected lean gas on the Asphaltene stability. Also, the segregation of the nature of Asphaltenes within the reservoir has been investigated by using the experimental approach named ‘ASCI (Asphaltene Solubility Class Index) experiment’ introduced by the international partner (SPE-164184) to rank Asphaltenes’ solubility with atmospheric dead oil samples taken in different locations. In addition to that, 2 more experiments were performed: Organic – Inorganic test on solid sample to determine the composition and the nature of the solid deposit (whether it is Asphaltene or other type of depositions) & SARA analysis on atmospheric samples. This paper presents the improved work-flow based on the collaboration of the local operator and the international partner, introduces the use of ASCI (Asphaltene Solubility Class Index) experiment and discusses the results of the study and its way-forward.

Wireless handheld communications has identified significant benefits of tuning that include fewer dropped calls, increased battery life and improved user experience. The tuning can be part of the antenna, power amplifier (PA), filtering, or part of a fully integrated radio front end (FE). RF MEMS tunable capacitors have been integrated with 0.18 μm RF HVCMOS to address the need for tuning in wireless communications. These integrated, MEMS tunable capacitors are hermetically encapsulated at the wafer level, but the integrity of the encapsulation must be maintained during BEOL operations. The BEOL operations include shipping and handling, passivation coat and cure, solder bumping (screen printed or electroplated), backside grinding (BSG), dicing, and pick and place. In this paper we will describe, the flip chip packaging of the wafer level encapsulated MEMS devices including finite element analysis. The flip chip packaging of ASIC die is primarily concerned with solder bump reliability during such qualification stresses as temperature cycling and drop testing. The flip chip packaging of a wafer level encapsulated MEMS device has additional concerns that include encapsulation integrity and device package sensitivity. The die thickness, underfill, and encapsulation dimension have been varied to minimize the deflection and stress associated with the encapsulation. The primary failure mode associated with the overstress of the encapsulation is a cracked lid that will lead to the ingress of moisture and a rise in the cavity pressure from to atmospheric conditions. The failure can be detected by an increase in the MEMS switching time and frequency response or by a return to zero failure (RTZ) associated with device stiction. A low modulus and low CTE UF has been implemented for the lowest deflection and stress. The lowest deflection and stress is provided by eliminating the UF, but this is not feasible for the purpose of solder bump reliability. In practice, the MEMS encapsulation is robust to the printed solder bumping process that includes placement and removal of the bump screen and the squeegee of solder past into the solder screen. The MEMS encapsulation is robust to the attachment and removal of BSG tape and the pressures associated with BSG. The final dicing operation has not demonstrated any detrimental impact on the MEMS encapsulation. The final demonstration of success is the assembly of the MEMS tunable capacitor die to a laminate substrate using lead-free solder and underfill.

Abstract Most of the discovered oil fields in Ukraine entering a declining production stage. Many of these assets have good potential for production increasing and require investments. The risks of such investments are related to the uncertainty of geological information, production data, and the total amount of reserves and resources. This paper describes the study of the joint use of 3D hydrodynamic modeling and reserves estimation according to the SPE-PRMS classification, which together allowed to assess and significantly reduce investment risks for oil production enhancement projects. The use of 3D modeling is one of the key elements during field exploration and production, because of coordination of all available geological and field data it is often possible to discover new, previously unknown features of the geological structure and identify high potential areas to increase production. In this paper petrophysical, geological and hydrodynamic modeling tools and material balance method have been used to consolidate existing geological and field data and create 3D model of the field in Western oil and gas bearing region of Ukraine. Also, for uncertainty analysis of the initial hydrocarbons in-place and IOR project investment presentation the SPE-PRMS classification was used. Comprehensive usage of material balance tools, field development history analysis, well performance changes, and fluid properties behavior revealed inconsistencies in the geological data and hypothesized the existence of a gas cap in the oil deposit and identify a faults system through the reservoir. After well logging these hypotheses has been confirmed, which allowed achieving a good history match of the model for the entire field and each well. Based on the matched model, a comprehensive field development strategy was proposed, which also considered all existing limitations related to production and infrastructure issues. The best scenario of field development was selected, according to the results of the economic assessment in terms of investment attractiveness. Based on the created 3D geological model, hydrocarbons reserves and resources were estimated using deterministic and stochastic methods and have been classified according to the SPE-PRMS. Reserves categories were assessed by the degree of commercial maturity of the project based on ten possible field development scenarios and high potential zones for infill drilling, plays exploration, and IOR project implementation was selected. The integrated approach to the field development strategy assessment and the input data uncertainties allowed to consider all available geological information and field data to create a comprehensive pilot investment IOR project. The proposed approach allows to solve complex problems of potential investments risks assessment and reduction in IOR projects and discover new assets' potential on the example of a complex field in the inner zone of the Pre-Carpathian Depression.

Abstract Unit 6 of the recently completed six-unit Medupi coal-fired power station was the first unit to go into commercial operation. Synchronisation of the generator to the transmission grid had occurred five months before commercial operation. Prior to the admission of first steam to the turbines, the boiler underwent a three stage cleaning process, which was performed by the boiler contractor, to ensure that debris left over in the boiler from construction was removed and to avoid damage to the turbine when steam was admitted. Steam blowing of the boiler was the penultimate stage of boiler cleaning and contractually the steam would have been deemed clean when the steam cleanliness acceptance criteria were met. The steam cleanliness acceptance criteria, which were set by the turbine contractor, relate to the number and size of indentations caused by particles striking a given area of each target plate situated in the temporary piping downstream of the inlet valves of the high pressure and intermediate pressure turbines. For each target plate, values were prescribed for these variables and for the flow conditions that should prevail in the pipe upstream. The boiler contractor had to meet these requirements. Unfortunately, there was a mismatch between the steam cleanliness requirements set by the turbine contractor and those included in the boiler contract. The less stringent steam cleanliness requirements set for the boiler contractor in the boiler contract meant that the boiler would not be adequately cleaned, from the point of view of the turbine contractor. The boiler contractor designed a temporary pipework system for the steam blow-through process that permitted steam to bypass the turbines and exhaust to the atmosphere through a silencer. During steam blowing, the prescribed pipe flow conditions for accepting the steam were not being met, even after a large number of blows had been conducted. Mathematical modelling of the process revealed that the required pipe flow conditions could not be attained at the intermediate pressure turbine inlet and as such, the steam blow-through pipework was inadequately sized. The solution was to redesign the temporary pipework, and manufacture and install a new system of pipework, all of which would have taken a couple of months. Business needs required an alternative solution, and so a decision had to be taken on the way forward. Engineering judgement, based on operating and maintenance experience with the current fleet, suggested that the steam was sufficiently clean to be admitted to the turbine, with little risk. Of the two feasible options available to the project team, admission of steam after a defined number of blows was accepted. Care had to be exercised to manage the risk that the potential turbine contractor non-compliance to any of the performance guarantee conditions could be blamed on poor steam quality. An analysis of the risks associated with this option was conducted and controls were adopted to mitigate the risks. Eventually, steam was admitted to the turbines. Subsequent inspections and tests conducted on the turbines indicated minimal damage and no loss of performance. This paper describes the Medupi Unit 6 steam blow-through problem and the analytical process that revealed the inadequacy of the blow-through pipework. It describes also the process of analysing the risks associated with admission of first steam to the turboset, the decision processes that were followed to admit the steam, and the process of managing the identified risks through the controls that were put in place.

Liquified natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source for shipping is a ready-made solution for the maritime industry. LNG is a clean fuel that meets the current environmental regulations set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to lower the sulfur content of marine fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% by January 2020. LNG is also competitive in terms of price and the increasing availability of fueling terminals. This technological readiness promotes the adoption of LNG powered ships, and the demand for such ships is increasing and is projected to increase in the future. LNG fuelled ships (LFS) comply with the tightened emission regulations, and major industry players have predicted that more than 10% of the world fleet will be using gas as a fuel by 2035. The rapid increase in the design and use of LFS has to be carefully monitored to ensure a successful transition. The design of ship and containment systems for LFS is usually carried out using risk-based design processes. Monitoring and advisory solutions are critical to ensure that changes take place in a safe manner. The experience and lessons learned from designing a suitable database framework and data analytics for traditional ship design are presented, and the knowledge transfer and applications for LFS are discussed. Additional critical parameters that are specific to LFS are discussed, and procedures required to ensure quality data collection to provide necessary solutions for the future fleet are presented. The importance of monitoring quality and quantity of the bunkering process with traditional fuel is outlined along with strategies to adopt and promote infrastructure readiness for the increase in LFS use. Data management and big data analysis for decision making is becoming increasingly apparent in many industries, including the shipping industry. Therefore, the inclusion of the systematic design of data acquisition and analytics systems for newly designed LFS is needed. This will accelerate data-driven knowledge generation and design improvements, promote safe and efficient ship operations, and provide a solid foundation for automation. The synergistic blending of solutions from fuel suppliers, engine makers, containment providers, sensor makers, logistics and government will be needed to ensure the global growth and sustainability of LNG fuelled shipping.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.