Academic literature on the topic 'Cicli economici'

Questo lavoro analizza la dinamica ed il co-movimento tra i cicli economici (Business Cycles Comovement) di alcuni gruppi di economie emergenti ed in via di sviluppo e due aggregati che identificano le economie avanzate, quali Stati Uniti ed il gruppo costituito dalle 7 economie avanzate con la ricchezza maggiore del pianeta (G7). Lo studio mira a comprendere se le traiettorie cicliche delle economie emergenti siano divenute nel tempo maggiormente interdipendenti rispetto a quelle delle economie avanzate, mostrando una dinamica delle proprie fluttuazioni simile a quella osservata per le economie industrializzate, oppure, come osservato da alcuni studiosi, abbiano intrapreso un processo di divergenza o “decoupling”. In un mondo sempre più interconnesso ed integrato per gli effetti causati dai processi di globalizzazione e diffusione delle nuove tecnologie ci si attenderebbe come conseguenza che le oscillazioni cicliche delle diverse economie divenissero maggiormente sincronizzate e tendessero ad una dinamica comune (co-movimento), tuttavia la straordinaria crescita registrata negli ultimi due decenni in alcune economie emergenti a dispetto di performance più modeste delle economie avanzate hanno indotto alcuni osservatori e studiosi a ritenere che alcune economie emergenti potessero essersi sganciate dal trend di crescita delle seconde, divenendo maggiormente indipendenti e resilienti. Attraverso l’analisi dei più importanti contributi empirici alla letteratura su questo tema e della teoria economica si analizza la dinamica ciclica del prodotto interno lordo reale pro capite di ciascuna delle 16 economie emergenti ed invia di sviluppo considerate, raggruppate in 4 aree geografiche, quali Asia, Africa, Est Europa e America Latina, per comprendere come si sia evoluta sia rispetto ai due aggregati delle economie avanzate sia rispetto al gruppo di appartenenza geografica. Gli sforzi della ricerca vengono indirizzati verso una risposta alle domande: come si è evoluto il grado di interdipendenza tra i cicli economici dei paesi emergenti rispetto a quelli delle economie avanzate? La dinamica della crescita nelle economie emergenti dipende ancora in misura rilevante da quella delle economie industrializzate o queste hanno intrapreso dei percorsi indipendenti? La famosa formula: “if the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold” rimane ancora valida nell’esperienza più recente? Sebbene la questione non sia stata ancora risolta definitivamente né dal punto di vista teorico, né tantomeno dal punto di vista della metodologia empirica da utilizzare per misurarlo, la sua comprensione risulta di notevole interesse non soltanto per il policy maker poiché consente di valutare in maniera più approfondita l’efficacia delle politiche economiche da adottare, ma anche per gli agenti economici che operano in ambito internazionale, quali investitori ed imprese multinazionali, nel delineare le strategie di diversificazione del rischio

This thesis includes two essays that are focused on developing multivariate filter approaches to be used for extracting common cyclical components where the common components can be used as an estimator of a business cycle. The first chapter aims to develop an optimal multivariate filter in order to extract common cyclical components of macroeconomic indicators. The filter allows macroeconomic series to be modeled as a phase shifted version of a coinciding business cycle (BC) while keeping other time series components such as the stochastic trend and idiosyncratic shocks intact (i.e. they are individually specified for each series). Earlier studies of Rünstler (2004), Valle e Azevedo et al. (2006) have applied phase shift in the form of a delay parameter when specifying lead-lag cycles. However, the lead-lag relationship is defined by rotating the baseline cycle which leads to loss of information. This deficiency is especially important if one considers working in continuous time. Therefore, this paper improves on the former technique by allowing a more flexible phase shift mechanism on the original BC. This in turn should lead to more realistic estimates and filters considering that the underlying data is generated through a continuous time framework. The study starts by presenting a structure for bi-variate time series system and then extends to model to incorporate a structure for three time series and beyond. Kalman filter and smoothing recursions are applied to compute the smoothed cycle estimates and to construct the likelihood function. Using simulated data, we test both model specifications by carrying out a grid search of the initial delay parameter to see the likelihood behavior as the parameter moves into fractional neighborhoods. Afterwards, applying the methodology to a set of EU countries and macroeconomic indicators; the study aims to shed light to the presence of cyclical heterogeneity at country level economic activity for major EU member states. A second empirical study provides analysis on how the model can be implemented for assigning a lead/lag ordering to three main economic indicators of a single country. The second chapter implements a multivariate non-parametric filtering approach; the Vertical Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (V-MSSA) of Hassani and Mahmoudvand (2013) and Golyandina et al. (2013). to be applied for identifying a common economic cycle indicator. The methodology is a data-driven procedure that can decompose a time series into many sub components. By exploiting this ability of the SSA, the paper aims to first extract cyclical components based on frequency characteristics and then follow by choosing only common cyclical component pairs with-in the business cycle frequency spectrum. These components will then be aggregated for constructing an EU region wide Business cycle indicator. The chapter outlines each steps of the algorithm that will eventually identify the SSA filter to act as a band-pass filter. The study then proceeds with simulation based data where the common cycle can be controlled and extracted a priori as a benchmark to the SSA-based filter estimates. The study follows with an empirical analysis similar to the framework set in Valle e Azevedo et al. (2006) with the aim to identify a Euro region business cycle indicator. The SSA based filter estimate is compared with Euro region economic activity indicators; the EuroCoin and the quarterly GDP growth rate of the EU area. Our results presents evidence of a successful alternative for tracing the cyclical position of the EU economy from a much smaller data set. Moreover, the constructed indicator also could serve as an unobserved proxy for a monthly growth cycle. A further analysis is also conducted to reveal whether the SSA based approach can be considered as an alternative to parametric filtering methods by providing results of common cycle extraction using Unobserved component model alternatives.<br>This thesis includes two essays that are focused on developing multivariate filter approaches to be used for extracting common cyclical components where the common components can be used as an estimator of a business cycle. The first chapter aims to develop an optimal multivariate filter in order to extract common cyclical components of macroeconomic indicators. The filter allows macroeconomic series to be modeled as a phase shifted version of a coinciding business cycle (BC) while keeping other time series components such as the stochastic trend and idiosyncratic shocks intact (i.e. they are individually specified for each series). Earlier studies of Rünstler (2004), Valle e Azevedo et al. (2006) have applied phase shift in the form of a delay parameter when specifying lead-lag cycles. However, the lead-lag relationship is defined by rotating the baseline cycle which leads to loss of information. This deficiency is especially important if one considers working in continuous time. Therefore, this paper improves on the former technique by allowing a more flexible phase shift mechanism on the original BC. This in turn should lead to more realistic estimates and filters considering that the underlying data is generated through a continuous time framework. The study starts by presenting a structure for bi-variate time series system and then extends to model to incorporate a structure for three time series and beyond. Kalman filter and smoothing recursions are applied to compute the smoothed cycle estimates and to construct the likelihood function. Using simulated data, we test both model specifications by carrying out a grid search of the initial delay parameter to see the likelihood behavior as the parameter moves into fractional neighborhoods. Afterwards, applying the methodology to a set of EU countries and macroeconomic indicators; the study aims to shed light to the presence of cyclical heterogeneity at country level economic activity for major EU member states. A second empirical study provides analysis on how the model can be implemented for assigning a lead/lag ordering to three main economic indicators of a single country. The second chapter implements a multivariate non-parametric filtering approach; the Vertical Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (V-MSSA) of Hassani and Mahmoudvand (2013) and Golyandina et al. (2013). to be applied for identifying a common economic cycle indicator. The methodology is a data-driven procedure that can decompose a time series into many sub components. By exploiting this ability of the SSA, the paper aims to first extract cyclical components based on frequency characteristics and then follow by choosing only common cyclical component pairs with-in the business cycle frequency spectrum. These components will then be aggregated for constructing an EU region wide Business cycle indicator. The chapter outlines each steps of the algorithm that will eventually identify the SSA filter to act as a band-pass filter. The study then proceeds with simulation based data where the common cycle can be controlled and extracted a priori as a benchmark to the SSA-based filter estimates. The study follows with an empirical analysis similar to the framework set in Valle e Azevedo et al. (2006) with the aim to identify a Euro region business cycle indicator. The SSA based filter estimate is compared with Euro region economic activity indicators; the EuroCoin and the quarterly GDP growth rate of the EU area. Our results presents evidence of a successful alternative for tracing the cyclical position of the EU economy from a much smaller data set. Moreover, the constructed indicator also could serve as an unobserved proxy for a monthly growth cycle. A further analysis is also conducted to reveal whether the SSA based approach can be considered as an alternative to parametric filtering methods by providing results of common cycle extraction using Unobserved component model alternatives.

L'obiettivo del seguente elaborato è evidenziare quali sono i driver del ciclo economico. In una prima fase verrà effettuata una review letteraria, partendo dal modello RBC e analizzando i contributi forniti da Kydland e Parscott. Si passerà poi ad analizzare i contributi che identificano gli shock sugli investimenti come driver del ciclo economico. Nella seconda parte, attraverso un modello VAR, si effettuerà un'analisi empirica sull'economia Americana. Nello specifico gli investimenti saranno disaggregati nelle loro componenti principali per meglio comprendere come e in che quantità queste incidano sul ciclo economico.

El creixement de les ciutats arreu del món porta associat un increment en la demanda d’infraestructures de sanejament i drenatge. Combinat amb els efectes del canvi climàtic, la situació d’aquests sistemes en entorns urbans és crítica. Bona part dels sistemes de clavegueram existents requereixen una renovació urgent, d’altres han de ser construïts en zones en creixement, mentre que l’escolament superficial d’aigua pluvial esdevé una amenaça quant a inundacions degut a la impermeabilització del sòl. En aquest context, cal determinar quines són les millors pràctiques per reduir aquestes problemàtiques i al mateix temps adaptar les ciutats al canvi climàtic. En resposta a aquestes demandes, aquesta tesi estudia l’ecoeficiència dels sistemes de sanejament i drenatge urbà per determinar les millors alternatives en diferents contextos urbans. Així, es fa ús del marc de l’ecologia industrial, tot aplicant mètodes específics com l’anàlisi del cicle de vida (ACV), l’anàlisi dels costos del cicle de vida (ACCV) i l’ecoeficiència. Aquesta recerca interdisciplinària requereix mètodes addicionals, com ara estudis estadístics o anàlisis experimentals. El cicle de vida de les xarxes de clavegueram ha estat àmpliament analitzat i s’ha pogut observar que els materials de la canonada no són els únics determinants de l’impacte ambiental d’una solució constructiva per clavegueram. En alguns casos, la contribució de la rasa pot representar fins un 80% dels impactes ambientals de l’etapa constructiva, fet rellevant de cara a la presa de decisions. Mitjançant un estudi estructural paramètric s’han trobat les solucions constructives equivalents amb menor impacte ambiental. Així, reduir l’ús de formigó en les rases i reutilitzar els materials del sòl excavats pot significar una millora ambiental. Per altra banda, l’etapa d’operació mostra reptes en l’àmbit del planejament urbà. S’han comparat el municipi costaner de Calafell (Espanya, clima mediterrani) i Betanzos (Espanya, clima atlàntic). La ubicació de l’estació depuradora de Calafell a una cota més elevada que el municipi fa que el consum d’energia de bombeig (0.47 kWh/m3) sigui major que a Betanzos (0.11 kWh/m3), on l’aigua circula per gravetat. A més, s’han observat emissions gasoses al clavegueram a través de campanyes de mostreig. Principalment es van detectar majors emissions durant l’estiu associades a les elevades temperatures i en zones de turbulència del clavegueram. A més, mitjançant un estudi d’ecoeficiència, es van comparar els resultats ambientals i econòmics del cicle de vida del clavegueram i es va trobar que, independentment del clima i l’estructura urbana del municipi, l’etapa d’operació és la que genera més impactes ambientals (fins el 74% dels impactes), mentre que la instal·lació (és a dir, la rasa) contribueix als costos econòmics (70-75%). El debat de la centralització vers la descentralització de les infraestructures s’ha estudiat en un entorn insular (Menorca, Espanya) amb problemàtica turística. Ambientalment, sembla que un escenari centralitzat en què es connecta l’assentament a una depuradora de gran capacitat és beneficiós degut a les economies d’escala. Aquest escenari generaria un 12% menys impacte que descentralitzar parcialment amb fosses sèptiques o un 36% respecte a tractar el flux estacional en uns aiguamolls construïts. En general, els resultats depenen de la duració de l’època turística. En l’àmbit de la prevenció d’inundacions, s’aporta una nova visió, doncs es tracta d’un dels primers estudis que integra l’impacte ambiental i econòmic d’invertir en mesures preventives amb els danys evitats. Aquests són de gran interès per a la planificació urbana. En base a dos climes i sistemes diferents, s’han analitzat les rieres del Maresme (Catalunya) i un sistema verd implantat al Brasil. Des d’una perspectiva metodològica, els estudis d’inundacions aporten una discussió en l’àmbit de les metodologies d’ACV i en com abordar les conseqüències de les inundacions des d’un punt de vista integrador.<br>El crecimiento de las ciudades alrededor del mundo lleva asociado un incremento en la demanda de infraestructuras de saneamiento y drenaje asociadas al ciclo del agua. Combinado con los efectos del cambio climático, la situación de estos sistemas en entornos urbanos es crítica. Buena parte de las redes de alcantarillado existentes requieren una renovación urgente, otras han de ser construidas en zonas en crecimiento, mientras que la escorrentía superficial de agua pluvial es una amenaza en cuanto a inundaciones debido a la impermeabilización del suelo. En este contexto, se debe determinar a través de una nueva visión ambiental y económica cuáles son las mejoras prácticas para reducir estas problemáticas y al mismo tiempo adaptar a las ciudades al cambio climático. En respuesta a estas demandas, esta tesis estudia la ecoeficiencia de los sistemas de saneamiento y drenaje urbano para determinar las mejores alternativas en diferentes contextos urbanos. Así, se usó el marco de la ecología industrial, aplicando métodos específicos como el análisis del ciclo de vida (ACV), el análisis de costes del ciclo de vida (ACCV) y la ecoeficiencia. Esta investigación interdisciplinaria requiere métodos adicionales, como estudios estadísticos o análisis experimentales. El ciclo de vida de las redes de alcantarillado fue ampliamente analizado y se observó que los materiales de la tubería no son los únicos determinantes del impacto ambiental de una solución constructiva. En algunos casos, la contribución de la zanja representa hasta un 80% de los impactos ambientales de la etapa constructiva, hecho relevante para la toma de decisiones. Mediante un estudio estructural paramétrico encontraron las soluciones constructivas equivalentes con menor impacto ambiental. Así, reducir el uso de hormigón en las zanjas y reutilizar los materiales del suelo excavado puede significar una mejora ambiental. Por otro lado, la etapa de operación presenta retos en el ámbito del planeamiento urbano. Se compararon el municipio costero de Calafell (España, clima mediterráneo) y Betanzos (España, clima atlántico). La ubicación de la estación depuradora de Calafell a una cota más elevada que el municipio hace que el consumo de energía de bombeo (0.47 kWh/m3) sea mayor que en Betanzos (0.11 kWh/m3), donde el agua circula por gravedad. Además, se observaron emisiones gaseosas del alcantarillado a través de campañas de muestreo. Principalmente se detectaron mayores emisiones durante el verano asociadas a las elevadas temperaturas y en zonas de turbulencia del alcantarillado. Adicionalmente, mediante un estudio de ecoeficiencia se compararon los resultados ambientales y económicos del ciclo de vida del alcantarillado y se encontró que, independientemente del clima y la estructura urbana, la etapa de operación es la que genera más impactos ambientales (hasta el 74% de los impactos), mientras que la instalación (es decir, la zanja) contribuye a los costes económicos (70-75%). El debate de la centralización frente a la descentralización de las infraestructuras se estudió en un entorno insular (Menorca, España) con problemática turística. Ambientalmente, parece que un escenario centralizado en el que se conecta el asentamiento a una depuradora de gran capacidad es beneficioso debido a las economías de escala. Este escenario generaría un 12% menos impactos que descentralizar parcialmente con fosas sépticas o un 36% respecto a tratar el flujo estacional en un humedal construido. En general, los resultados dependen de la duración de la época turística. En el ámbito de la prevención de inundaciones, se aporta una nueva visión, pues se trata de los primeros estudios que integran el impacto ambiental y económico de invertir en medidas preventivas con los daños evitados. Estos estudios son de gran interés para la planificación urbana. En base a dos climas y sistemas diferentes, se analizaron las rieras del Maresme (Catalunya) y un sistema verde implantado en Brasil. Desde una perspectiva metodológica, los estudios de inundaciones aportan una discusión en el ámbito de las metodologías de ACV y en cómo abordar las consecuencias de las inundaciones desde un punto de vista integrador.<br>The growth of cities worldwide is associated with an increasing demand for sanitation and drainage infrastructure in the context of the water cycle. Combined with the effects of climate change, the situation of these systems in urban environments is critical. Part of the existing sewer networks require an imminent renovation, others must be constructed in developing areas, whereas stormwater runoff becomes a threat in terms of flooding because of the soil imperviousness. In this context, we must determine the best practices aimed at reducing these issues from an innovative environmental and economic viewpoint and at the same time adapt cities to climate change. In response to this demand, this dissertation assesses the eco-efficiency of urban sanitation and drainage systems to determine the best alternatives in different urban contexts. To this end, the industrial ecology framework is used by applying specific methods such as life cycle assessment (LCA), life cycle costing (LCC) and eco-efficiency. This interdisciplinary research requires additional methods, such as statistical studies or field experimental analyses. The life cycle of sewers was widely analyzed and it was observed that pipe materials are not the only factors that determine the environmental impacts of a sewer constructive solution. In some cases, the trench might contribute to 80% of the environmental impacts of the construction phase, which is a relevant issue to consider in decision-making. Through a structural parametric study, we found the equivalent constructive solutions that generate the lowest environmental impact. Reducing the use of concrete or reusing the excavated soil might entail environmental improvements. On the other hand, the operation stage is challenging in the context of urban planning. The coastal city of Calafell (Spain, Mediterranean climate) was compared with the city of Betanzos (Spain, Atlantic climate). The location of Calafell’s wastewater treatment plant at a higher elevation than the city resulted in Calafell consuming more pumping energy (0.47 kWh/m3) than Betanzos (0.11 kWh/m3), where wastewater flows gravitationally. Additionally, gas emissions were found in the sewer through sampling campaigns. The largest emissions were mainly detected during the summer due to high temperature, and in turbulent areas of the sewer. Furthermore, through an eco-efficiency assessment, the environmental and economic results of a sewer’s life cycle were compared. Regardless of climate and urban form, results show that the operation stage generates the largest environmental impacts (up to 74%), whereas the installation (i.e., the trench) mostly contributes to the economic costs (70-75%). The infrastructure centralization versus decentralization debate was studied in an insular context (Minorca, Spain) with a tourist-related issues. It seems that a centralized scenario that connects the settlement to an existing treatment plant with a large treatment capacity is environmentally beneficial due to economies of scale. This scenario entails a 12% impact reduction with respect to partial decentralization through septic tanks, or 36% reduction with respect to treating seasonal wastewater at a constructed wetland. In general, results depend on the duration of the seasonal period. In the field of flood prevention, this thesis provides a new vision, as these are the first studies that integrate the avoided impacts of damage prevention into the environmental and economic effects of investing in preventive measures. These analyses are of interest in the framework of urban planning. Based on two different climates and systems, ephemeral streams in the Maresme region (Catalonia, Spain) and a green system implemented in Brazil were assessed. From a methodological perspective, flooding analyses provide some ideas in the field of LCA methods and discuss how to deal with the consequences of flooding from an integrated viewpoint.

Mestrado em Economia<br>Este projecto tem por objectivo a divulgação da ciência económica em Portugal, através do desenvolvimento de um programa de ensino não formal de economia, dirigido a crianças do 1º ciclo do ensino básico. Este projecto despoletou uma linha de investigação inovadora no Departamento de Economia, Engenharia e Gestão Industrial da Universidade de Aveiro, estando em virtude disso, em curso actualmente, o projecto Economicando financiado pela Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia. Na primeira parte deste Projecto demonstramos a importância da introdução da literacia económica no 1º ciclo do ensino básico e a surpreendente capacidade e sofisticação ao nível da compreensão e retenção de conhecimentos económicos das crianças, quando estes são relacionados com a sua experiencia de vida. Na segunda parte deste Projecto desenvolvemos uma ferramenta de divulgação da ciência económica, especialmente concebida para transmitir os conceitos fundamentais de economia a crianças do 1ºciclo do ensino básico. Pretendemos contribuir para colmatar a lacuna que existe na aérea científica de economia, onde não existem praticamente actividades e espaços de educação não formal, nomeadamente clubes de ciência ou programas de férias dedicados ao tema. Contrariamente ao que se verifica em outras áreas científicas, onde a aprendizagem é incentivada de uma forma informal e até mesmo lúdica, a ciência económica, em Portugal, apresenta-se com um carácter cinzento, extremamente formal, inibindo a sua exploração pelos mais novos. Esperamos que este trabalho seja o pontapé de saída para outros projectos na mesma temática, e possamos vir, em breve, a encontrarmo-nos num Café com Ciência, ou numas Férias com Ciência… Económica!<br>The central aim of this project is to promote the Economic science in Portugal by developing a program of non-formal education in economics, to children of the 1st cycle of basic education. This project has sparked a line of innovative research in the Departamento de Economia, Engenharia e Gestão Industrial da Universidade de Aveiro, being in light of this, currently underway the project Economicando funded by the Fundação para a Ciencia e Tecnologia. The first part of this Project demonstrate the importance of the introduction of economic literacy in the 1st cycle of basic education and an amazing ability and sophistication at the level of comprehension and retention of economic concepts of children when these are related to her life experience. The second part of this Project developed a tool for dissemination of economic science, especially designed to convey the fundamental concepts of economics to children of the 1st cycle of basic education. We want to help bridge the gap that exists in the scientific field of economics, where there are almost no spaces and activities of non-formal education, such as, science clubs or holiday programs dedicated to this theme. Contrary to what happens in other scientific areas, where learning is fostered in an informal and even playful, economics, in Portugal, is presented with a gray character, extremely formal, inhibiting their exploitation by the youngest. We hope this project is the kick-off for other projects on the same theme, and we might soon find ourselves at a Coofee with Economic Science, or, on holiday with Economic Science.

Questa tesi esamina l’interazione tra aspettative eterogenee e il rapporto creditore-debitore. In letteratura, non è ancora chiara la natura dell’interazione tra cicli del credito e aspettative individuali. Per questo motivo ho capito che sarebbe stato importante iniziare dai lavori seminali in entrambi i campi, ovvero Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) e Brock & Hommes (1997). Il mio principale obbiettivo è stato quello di studiare più nel dettaglio il funzionamento del vincolo di garanzia. Il fil rouge dell’intera tesi, infatti, è l’analisi del ruolo delle frizioni finanziarie nell’andamento del prezzo di un asset collateralizzato. In particolare, presento un modello dove l’ipotesi di aspettative razionali viene abbandonata. I risultati del primo capitolo rivelano che le aspettative individuali sono una fonte importante di instabilità, anche se la configurazione iniziale risulta stabile. L’elemento che provoca questa instabilità è la bancarotta causata dalla divergenza tra le aspettative di creditori e debitori sul prezzo dell’asset collateralizzato. Poi, nel secondo capitolo, effettuo un esperimento di learning-to-forecast. Fondato sul modello del primo capitolo, ha come obbiettivo quello di testare se e come la volatilità è legata alle percezioni di rischio dei creditori. Ciò che emerge è che ridurre il credito in risposta ad un aumento delle insolvenze in realtà conduce a scenari addirittura peggiori dove il benessere totale si deteriora e il numero delle bancarotte aumenta.<br>This thesis examines the interaction between heterogeneous expectations and the borrower-lender relationship. In the literature, the nature of the interaction between credit cycle and individual expectations is still unclear. Therefore I realized it was important to start from the seminal works in both fields, that is Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) and Brock & Hommes (1997). My main concern has been to gain insights into the collateral constraint. The common thread of the whole thesis, indeed, is to analyse the role of financial frictions in the price development of a collateralized asset. In particular, I introduce a model where rational expectations are dropped. The results of the first chapter reveal that even in a simple and stable setting, individual beliefs are an important source of instability. The driver of this instability is the bankruptcy caused by the divergence between borrowers' and lenders' price expectations on a collateralized asset. Then, I conduct an online learning-to-forecast experiment. Founded on the model of the first chapter, it tests whether and how volatility is related to lender-level risk perceptions. What emerges is that to shrink credit in response to an increase in defaults actually leads to worse scenarios where total welfare deteriorates and the number of bankruptcies increases.

Questa tesi esamina l’interazione tra aspettative eterogenee e il rapporto creditore-debitore. In letteratura, non è ancora chiara la natura dell’interazione tra cicli del credito e aspettative individuali. Per questo motivo ho capito che sarebbe stato importante iniziare dai lavori seminali in entrambi i campi, ovvero Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) e Brock & Hommes (1997). Il mio principale obbiettivo è stato quello di studiare più nel dettaglio il funzionamento del vincolo di garanzia. Il fil rouge dell’intera tesi, infatti, è l’analisi del ruolo delle frizioni finanziarie nell’andamento del prezzo di un asset collateralizzato. In particolare, presento un modello dove l’ipotesi di aspettative razionali viene abbandonata. I risultati del primo capitolo rivelano che le aspettative individuali sono una fonte importante di instabilità, anche se la configurazione iniziale risulta stabile. L’elemento che provoca questa instabilità è la bancarotta causata dalla divergenza tra le aspettative di creditori e debitori sul prezzo dell’asset collateralizzato. Poi, nel secondo capitolo, effettuo un esperimento di learning-to-forecast. Fondato sul modello del primo capitolo, ha come obbiettivo quello di testare se e come la volatilità è legata alle percezioni di rischio dei creditori. Ciò che emerge è che ridurre il credito in risposta ad un aumento delle insolvenze in realtà conduce a scenari addirittura peggiori dove il benessere totale si deteriora e il numero delle bancarotte aumenta.<br>This thesis examines the interaction between heterogeneous expectations and the borrower-lender relationship. In the literature, the nature of the interaction between credit cycle and individual expectations is still unclear. Therefore I realized it was important to start from the seminal works in both fields, that is Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) and Brock & Hommes (1997). My main concern has been to gain insights into the collateral constraint. The common thread of the whole thesis, indeed, is to analyse the role of financial frictions in the price development of a collateralized asset. In particular, I introduce a model where rational expectations are dropped. The results of the first chapter reveal that even in a simple and stable setting, individual beliefs are an important source of instability. The driver of this instability is the bankruptcy caused by the divergence between borrowers' and lenders' price expectations on a collateralized asset. Then, I conduct an online learning-to-forecast experiment. Founded on the model of the first chapter, it tests whether and how volatility is related to lender-level risk perceptions. What emerges is that to shrink credit in response to an increase in defaults actually leads to worse scenarios where total welfare deteriorates and the number of bankruptcies increases.

Orientador: Rui Guilherme Granziera<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-07T02:32:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Teixeira_CleudiaMenezesGraca_M.pdf: 46767929 bytes, checksum: 16d3c862e9ef34e8cf294238cf2c103c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003<br>Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo resgatar o processo histórico de criação e funcionamento das fábricas de tecido, fundadas e instaladas na cidade de Caxias, nos anos de 1883, 1889, 1891 e 1892, Companhia Industrial Caxiense, Companhia União Caxiense, Fábrica Sanharó e Companhia Manufatora Caxiense, respectivamente. Destaca-se a importância histórica da Companhia Industrial Caxiense, por ter sido a primeira indústria de fiação e tecelagem do Estado do Maranhão. Procurou-se compreender o ciclo do desenvolvimento da indústria têxtil caxiense, no quadro do processo de industrialização têxtil no Brasil, e das condições econômicas da Província do Maranhão e da cidade de Caxias, entre o último quartel do século XIX e a primeira metade do século XX. A amplitude do tema exigiu um esforço de busca de documentação identificada nos arquivos da cidade de Caxias e de São Luís-MA, com a qual se teceu os fios deste primeiro trabalho de sistematização<br>Abstract: This work has had as an aim to retrieve the historic process of the creation and running of textiles factories founded and installed in the town of Caxias by Companhia Industrial Caxiense (1883), Companhia União Caxiense (1889), Fábrica Sanharó (1891) and Companhia Manufatora Caxiense (1892). The historic importance of the Companhia Industrial Caxiense is highlighted for having been the first spinning and weaving industry in the state of Maranhão. We have tried to understand the developing cycle of Caxias textile industry within the scenery of Brazilian textile industrialization, and the economical conditions of the old Province of Maranhão and Caxias town, between the last quarter of the Nineteenth Century and the first half of the Twentieth Century. The amplitude of the theme has demanded an effort in the search of documentation identified in the archives of Caxias and São Luis-MA, with which the treads of this first systematization work have been woven<br>Mestrado<br>Mestre em História Econômica

L’objectiu d’aquesta tesis és desenvolupar eines sistemàtiques de suport per la presa de decisions basades en mètodes matemàtics pel disseny òptim d’edificis amb mínim cost i mínim impacte ambiental. Avui en dia la societat és cada vegada més conscient de la importància que té respectar el medi ambient. Com a resultat, les autoritats i moltes empreses i consumidors estan interessats en productes econòmicament eficients però també respectuosos amb el medi ambient. En aquest context l’eficiència energètica hi juga un paper molt important. L’aïllament d’edificis és particularment interessant, ja que fa disminuir el consum d’energia i, conseqüentment, permet reduir també l’impacte ambiental. El problema general que pretenem solucionar en aquesta tesis és el disseny d’edificis ambientalment respectuosos amb el mínim cost econòmic, centrant-nos en l’optimització de l’aïllament tèrmic exterior. Per tal de demostrar les possibilitats de les nostres eines, considerem un cas d’estudi: Una casa tipus cubicle localitzada a la regió de Lleida. No obstant les nostres metodologies són suficientment generals per treballar amb diferents models d’edifici, variables de decisió i funcions objectiu. Els nostres mètodes s’han desenvolupat amb la intenció d’ajudar als agents involucrats en el disseny d’edificis.<br>El objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar herramientas sistemáticas de soporte para la toma de decisiones basadas en métodos matemáticos para el diseño óptimo de edificios con mínimo coste y mínimo impacto ambiental. Hoy en día la sociedad es cada vez más consciente de la importancia que tiene respetar el medio ambiente. Como resultado, las autoridades y muchas empresas y consumidores están interesados en productos económicamente eficientes pero también respetuosos con el medio ambiente. En este contexto la eficiencia energética juega un papel muy importante. El aislamiento de edificios es particularmente interesante, ya que hace disminuir el consumo de energía y, consecuentemente, permite reducir también el impacto ambiental. El problema general que pretendemos solucionar en esta tesis es el diseño de edificios ambientalmente respetuosos con el mínimo coste económico, centrándonos en la optimización del aislamiento térmico exterior. Para demostrar las posibilidades de nuestras herramientas, consideramos un caso de estudio: Una casa tipo cubículo localizada en la región de Lleida. No obstatnte nuestras metodologías son suficientemente generales para trabajar con diferentes modelos de edificio, variables de decisión y funciones objetivo. Nuestros métodos se han desarrollado con la intención de ayudar a los agentes involucrados en el diseño de edificios.<br>The goal of this thesis is to provide systematic mathematical decision-support tools for the design of optimal buildings with minimum cost and minimum environmental impact. Nowadays the society is becoming more aware of the importance of being environmentally conscious. As a result, the authorities and many companies and consumers seek for products that are cost efficient but also environmentally friendly. Here energy efficiency plays an important role. Building insulation is particularly appealing, since it decreases the energy demand, thereby leading to significant environmental savings. The general problem we aim to solve in this thesis is the design of environmentally friendly buildings with the lowest possible cost focusing on the optimization of the external thermal insulation. To illustrate the capabilities of our approaches, we consider a case study: A house-like cubicle located in the Lleida region. However our methodology is general enough to work with different building models, decision variables and objective functions. Our methods are intended to assist decision-makers in the design of buildings.