Academic literature on the topic 'Change trajectory'

When an intelligent vehicle changes lanes, the state of other vehicles may change, which increases the risk of collision. Therefore, real-time local path replanning is needed at this time. Based on model predictive control (MPC), a lane-change trajectory replanning strategy was proposed, which was divided into a lane-change trajectory correction strategy, a lane-change switchback strategy and forward active collision avoidance strategy according to collision risk. Based on the collision risk function of the rectangular safety neighborhood, the objective functions were designed according to the specific requirements of different strategies. The vehicle lateral controller based on MPC and the vehicle longitudinal motion controller were established. The longitudinal velocity was taken as the joint point to establish the lateral and longitudinal integrated controller. The trajectory planning module, trajectory replanning module and trajectory tracking module were integrated in layers, and the three trajectory replanning strategies of lane-change trajectory correction, lane-change switchback and forward active collision avoidance were respectively simulated and verified. The simulation results showed the trajectory replanning strategy achieves collision avoidance under different scenarios and ensures the vehicle’s driving stability. The trajectory tracking layer achieves accurate tracking of the conventional lane-change trajectory and has good driving stability and comfort.

When a bubble rises freely in still water, it often moves along a zigzag or spiral trajectory. In order to explore the mechanism of this movement, an experiment was conducted to record the changes in the movement trajectory and bubble shape. The results show that this movement can be explained by the swing of trailing vortices and the change in vorticity. There is asymmetric shedding of the trailing vortices. The change in bubble velocity caused by the shedding of the bubble trailing vortices will lead to an asymmetric change in the vorticity of the trailing vortices. Two factors lead to an asymmetric change in the drag force of the trailing vortices on both sides of the bubble, resulting in the zigzag trajectory. Only when the aspect ratio λ reaches 2.0 will the bubble move along the zigzag. The trailing vortices moving in two orthogonal directions will lead to a spiral trajectory. The movement of the trailing vortices not only changes the trajectory of the bubble but also changes its shape. The effect of the trailing vortices on the bubble can be equivalent to a low-pressure area around a bubble. When a bubble moves along a zigzag trajectory, the low-pressure area at the trailing of a bubble swings back and forth in a plane, and the bubble is flatter. When moving along a spiral trajectory, the low-pressure area rotates around the trailing of the bubble and becomes more spherical. Compared with a zigzag trajectory, a bubble has a higher velocity and lower frequency when moving along a spiral trajectory.

In this paper, preliminary theoretical research on abrupt change induced by the forcing term in a dynamical system is described. Taking the Lorenz equationtrajectoryasthe research object, the trajectory response to different pulse forcing terms is studied based on the stability theorem of differential equations and numerical methods. From the perspective of a dynamical system, abrupt changecan be classified as internal or external. The former reflectstrajectory self-adjustment inside the attractor, whereasthe latter represents the bizarre behaviorof the trajectoryin its deviation from the attractor. This classification helps in understanding the physical mechanisms of different manifestations of atmospheric abrupt change. For different intensities and durations of the pulse forcing term,which are simplified to the magnitude and width of a rectangular wave, respectively, the corresponding abrupt change is analyzed quantitatively. It is established that the larger the amplitude of the pulse forcing term, the greater the deviation of thetrajectory from the attractor and the more violent theabrupt change. Moreover, the greater the width of the pulse forcing term, the longer the duration over which the trajectory deviates from the attractor. Finally, two simple but meaningful linear relationships are obtained: one between the amplitude of the pulse forcing term and the distance of trajectory deviation from the attractor, and the other between the width of the pulse forcing term and the duration over which the trajectory dwells outside of the attractor. These relationships indicate that nonlinear systems have some linear properties.

Two generalizations of the traveling salesman problem in which sites change their position in time are presented. The way the rank of different trajectory lengths changes in time is studied using the rank diversity. We analyze the statistical properties of rank distributions and rank dynamics and give evidence that the shortest and longest trajectories are more predictable and robust to change, that is, more stable.

Response to a change in direction is more rapid if the target moves in a predictable direction before the change than if the pre-change direction is not predictable. However, if the target trajectory is viewed for approximately half a second before the change in direction, the effect of directional predictability disappears. Visual information gathered prior to change in direction is used to construct an increasingly more accurate representation of target trajectory. To study this process, we inject various temporal transients into the trajectory prior to the change in direction. We find that extraction of directional information is interrupted if: (i) motion continues along a constant trajectory, but the target disappears briefly behind an implicit or real occluder, (ii) the target pauses briefly, but remains visible, or (iii) the target changes speed briefly, while continuing to move in the same direction. The theoretical implications for motion perception are discussed. These implications include a framework for understanding interactions between stimulus-derived information and a priori information.

Persons receiving treatment for weight loss often demonstrate heterogeneity in lifestyle behaviors and health outcomes over time. Traditional repeated measures approaches focus on the estimation and testing of an average temporal pattern, ignoring the interindividual variability about the trajectory. An alternate person-centered approach, group-based trajectory modeling, can be used to identify distinct latent classes of individuals following similar trajectories of behavior or outcome change as a function of age or time and can be expanded to include time-invariant and time-dependent covariates and outcomes. Another latent class method, growth mixture modeling, builds on group-based trajectory modeling to investigate heterogeneity within the distinct trajectory classes. In this applied methodologic study, group-based trajectory modeling for analyzing changes in behaviors or outcomes is described and contrasted with growth mixture modeling. An illustration of group-based trajectory modeling is provided using calorie intake data from a single-group, single-center prospective study for weight loss in adults who are either overweight or obese.

Carrying gripped objects at high speed can lead to gripping failure owing to loads applied to the gripper by its acceleration. When carrying an object at high speed, it is important to carry it with accelerations at which gripping is maintained. Previously proposed methods generated the shortest carrying trajectory for a predetermined trajectory path. In this study, focusing on the object-carrying trajectory and the hand attitude of the gripper, we propose a method to generate the shortest carrying trajectory by varying the state quantities. The proposed method considers the gripping force and the deformation of the gripper. During planning, we estimated the deformation volume of the gripper from its inputs and generated the shortest carrying trajectory with the allowable force and deformation values as constraints. Using the proposed method, we generated a trajectory capable of carrying objects in a shorter time (0.28 times) than in a straight-line trajectory and conducted experiments with a robot arm. The trajectory was generated while keeping the hand attitude unchanged. Through experiments, we have proved the effectiveness of keeping objects gripped on the generated shortest carrying trajectory. Compared with a success ratio of 0.47 in keeping objects gripped on the trajectory with the same time as the generated trajectory, the success ratio on the generated trajectory is as high as 1.0.

Thesis: Ph. D. in Climate Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, May, 2020
Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-172).
The characterization of climate change depends on the location and rate of change while its impacts on nature and society also depend on vulnerabilities. This thesis contributes to the quantification of uncertainties, drivers, the spatial variability, and impacts of the climate change trajectory. Results of this work have evolved using a range of data science techniques that combine observations and Earth models aimed at informing adaptation and mitigation policies. In the first chapter, the drivers, timing, and impacts of aridity change over the 21st century are assessed using an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) together with population statistics. Results indicate that drier regions are projected to dry earlier, more severely and to a greater extent than humid regions, a result driven by differential changes in precipitation across aridity zones.
Impacts are exacerbated as arid regions (such as the Mediterranean etc.) are more populated and experiencing much higher population growth than humid regions (which includes the Arctic). Under an unconstrained emissions scenario, GCMs project that most of humanity will live in a more arid climate by the end of the 21st century. For the second chapter, the southern African rainfall (SAR) response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Niño 3.4 region is examined. This is done using observations and three large ensembles of GCMs run over the 20th and 21st century. Some previous studies suggested that the Indian Ocean dominated changes in SAR. In this chapter, Niño 3.4 SSTs are found to be most strongly correlated with SAR, while correlations between SAR and the Indian Ocean are dominated by their respective responses to Niño 3.4. GCMs project that this relationship persists under a warming background state.
In the third chapter, the end of rapid warming is examined by considering emissions trajectories where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations ([GHG]) are stabilized. Under such scenarios, the rate of global temperature increases eventually steady at a rate significantly lower than those of the 21st century. I present a framework for defining the beginning of this 'Time of Steady Change' (TSC) and, with the use of GCM ensembles, evaluate the spatial variability of TSC. Results indicate that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple GCM ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. The fourth chapter contributes to the measurement and analysis of sea level change. As an ice sheet rapidly melts, it produces a unique geometry of sea level change driven by perturbations in the height of the sea and crustal surfaces.
While satellite altimeters only measure changes in the sea surface height (SSH), local impacts from changes in sea level depend on both changes in SSH and changes in the solid surface. The literature commonly conflates the two estimates by directly comparing them. Here I quantify the error incurred by conflating changes in SSH with changes in sea level for various ice mass flux scenarios. Results indicate that using satellite altimetry records to estimate global ocean volume changes can lead to biases that can exceed 15% and that the level of bias will depend on the relative contributions to sea level changes from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. The final chapter of this thesis provides a probabilistic quantification of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were banked in old equipment and continue to be released, contributing to global CFC emissions.
A Bayesian probabilistic model is developed to quantify banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12, and 113, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. Implied bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggest, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). If current banks are left unrecovered, their future emissions could delay polar ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO₂ emission. While observationally-derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, they are too large to explain from banks, raising questions about sources of this gas as well.
by Megan Jeramaz Lickley.
Ph. D. in Climate Science
Ph.D.inClimateScience Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences

This research focuses primary on recognition of lane-change behaviors using support vector machines (SVMs). Previous research and statistical results show that the vast majority of motor vehicle accidents are caused by driver behavior and errors. Therefore, the interpretation and evaluation of driver behavior is important for road safety analysis and improvement. The main limit to understanding driver behavior is the data availability. In particular, a full-scale lane-change data set is difficult to collect in a real traffic environment because of the safety and cost issues. Considering the data demands of the recognition model development and the obstacles of field data collection, data were collected from two aspects: simulation data and the field data. To obtain field data, an in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) that integrates a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) are developed to collect data on speed, position, attitude, acceleration, etc. To obtain simulation data, a lane-change simulation with a speed controller and a trajectory tracking controller with preview ability were developed, and sufficient lane-change data were generated. Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control is applied to the speed controller and trajectory tracking controller. Simulation data were divided into two classes: dual lane-change data and single lane-change data; field data were further divided as single lane-change and non-lane-change data. Two-class and three-class classification SVM model are trained by simulation data and field data, and the model parameters were optimized by Genetic Algorithm (GA). A radial basis function and polynomial kernel functions were found that suitable for this recognition task. The recognition results indicate that, the SVM model trained by simulation data and non-lane-change data can correctly classify up to 85 percent of single lane-change field data.

Dementia is increasing recognized as a major problem to public health worldwide. Prevention and treatment strategies are in critical need. Nowadays, research for dementia usually featured as complex longitudinal studies, which provide extensive information and also propose challenge to statistical methodology. The purpose of this dissertation research was to apply statistical methodology in the field of dementia to strengthen the understanding of dementia from three perspectives: 1) Application of statistical methodology to investigate the association between potential risk factors and incident dementia. 2) Application of statistical methodology to analyze changes over time, or trajectory, in cognitive tests and symptoms. 3) Application of statistical learning methods to predict development of dementia in the future. Prevention of Alzheimer’s disease with Vitamin E and Selenium (PREADViSE) (7547 subjects included) and Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (591 participants included) were used in this dissertation. The first study, “Self-reported sleep apnea and dementia risk: Findings from the PREADViSE Alzheimer’s disease prevention trial ”, shows that self-reported baseline history of sleep apnea was borderline significantly associated with risk of dementia after adjustment for confounding. Stratified analysis by APOE ε4 carrier status showed that baseline history of sleep apnea was associated with significantly increased risk of dementia in APOE ε4 non-carriers. The second study, “comparison of trajectories of episodic memory for over 10 years between baseline normal and MCI ADNI subjects,” shows that estimated 30% normal subjects at baseline assigned to group 3 and 6 stay stable for over 9 years, and normal subjects at baseline assigned to Group 1 (18.18%) and Group 5 (16.67%) were more likely to develop into dementia. In contrast to groups identified for normal subjects, all trajectory groups for MCI subjects at baseline showed the tendency to decline. The third study, “comparison between neural network and logistic regression in PREADViSE trial,” demonstrates that neural network has slightly better predictive performance than logistic regression, and also it can reveal complex relationships among covariates. In third study, the effect of years of education on response variable depends on years of age, status of APOE ɛ4 allele and memory change.

Parent child communications about sex play an important role in influencing adolescent’s sexual behaviors and attitudes. The present study was conducted to examine how sexual communications between African American mothers and their children change over a period of three years in the areas of sex education, communication about risk reduction, and child and parent report of responsiveness. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analyses found significant linear or curvilinear trajectory in communication with sons and daughters in all areas. Gender differences were found such that daughters received more communication than sons. Furthermore, daugthers’ sexual maturation was found to be associated with a decrease in the rate of decline of communication about general sex information. For sons, mothers decreased in rates of responsiveness as sons got older; however, as sons’ sexual maturation increased, rates of declining responsiveness slowed down.

Our research paper looks at the sustainability challenge as an example of complexity in interrelated nested systems (or meta-problem) and we further explore the consequences of disruptive events induced by climate change (ie. Extreme Climate Events). Due to their potential effects on adaptive capacities of systems at all levels (macro, meso and micro) and the need for Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD) to develop meta-solutions (non-isolated, non-reinforcing) we focus on community-based interventions and participatory facilitation processes. Therefore, we enquire what might a process look like that supports a community’s psychological resilience and strategic sustainable development following a disruptive event. A way to reinforce a community’s adaptive capacities is through making meaning collaboratively and such a process can be supported by the use of stories and narrative. To this intent, we focus on the use of Collective Narrative Practices (CNP) within the implementation process (ABCD process) of the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD). CNP promote desired narratives and strengthen communities’ psychological resilience while the FSSD ensures the development of meta-solutions and their practical application (through the ABCD). Throughout a five-step exploration, we test their theoretical compatibility, interview FSSD and CNP practitioners, design an initial Process Prototype, test its validity by interviewing practitioners with expertise in both fields, and develop a final Process Prototype which embeds recommendations, guidelines and tools. Finally, our paper initiates the academic study of the linkage between FSSD and CNP and is aimed to guide practitioners of both fields to discern an effective way to facilitate the emergence of appropriate responses in a community, while maintaining or rebuilding its resilience and complying with SSD core principles.

Thesis (M.A.)--Boston University PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you.
The natural gradient of eutrophic conditions that exists in Waquoit Bay, (Cape Cod, Massachusetts) allowed us to examine how key biogeochemical processes respond to eutrophication over time. Using a space-for-time substitution we measured oxygen (O2), nutrient, and di-nitrogen (N2) gas fluxes from sediments collected at four stations. The objective of this study was to assess how sediment metabolism, nutrient cycling, denitrification and the balance between N and P limitation may change over a trajectory of increasing eutrophication. In addition, for two sites we compared our more recent measurements to those made in the bay nearly 20 years ago (1992-1994). While we did not find a spatial pattern that was linearly linked to nitrogen (N) loading, our results show characteristics of a system in change. Sediment oxygen consumption was measured at 45% of its historic rate and ammonium flux at only 30%. The difference in net denitrification rate was particularly large, as our mean rate (29.9 µmol N2-N m-2 h-1) was considerably lower than the mean historic value (172 µmol N2-N m-2 h-1). This 83% reduction represents the substantial dampening of a key microbial process for the removal of reactive nitrogen from the ecosystem. Additionally, at our most impacted site, North Basin, we measured significant rates of net N fixation, indicating that the sediments are becoming a net source of reactive N. In another important example of change, we observed an anomalous efflux of phosphate (PO4 3-) from the sediments during the summer and high ratios of both oxygen uptake to phosphate release (O2:PO4 3-) and ammonium to phosphate release (NH4+:PO4 3-). This unexpected result suggests that, at least in some times of year, Waquoit Bay may be co-limited by both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). If these observations of N and P co-limitation hold into the future, it will have important consequences for the ecology and management of this coastal system.

Thesis advisor: Barbara E. Wolfe
Despite the chronicity and less than optimal outcomes of inpatient treatment (IPT) for anorexia nervosa (AN), treatment guidelines continue to reflect the common notion of one-size-fits-all and the process of weight restoration continues to be poorly understood. Weight restoration, a primary goal of IPT for AN, does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptation process within internal and external environments. It is unknown whether or not there are unique patterns of change in body weight that are associated with factors identified in the existing literature as being predictors of weight gain. The purpose of this study was to explore the extent to which patterns of change in body weight existed among individuals during IPT for AN, and the relationship with factors identified in the existing literature as being predictors of weight gain (i.e., age at time of admission, admission caloric intake, percent of ideal body weight [IBW] at time of admission, body weight at time of discharge, body mass index [BMI] at time of discharge). Individuals who were diagnosed with AN and admitted to the inpatient unit of an eating disorder treatment facility in the Northeast between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2015 were included in this retrospective, exploratory study (N = 500). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify distinct trajectories of change in body weight, and to determine the risk of being in a particular trajectory. Four distinct trajectories were identified: weight gain (n = 197), weight loss (n = 177), weight plateau (n = 82), and weight fluctuate (n = 44) groups. Significant predictors of trajectories were age, history of prior IPT for AN, admission caloric intake, body weight at time of admission and discharge, and length of stay. Results from this study suggest that a further understanding of patterns of change in body weight among individuals with AN, will help guide assessment and treatment interventions and consequently influence outcomes. Additionally, there is an opportunity to update treatment guidelines and recommendations for AN
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2016
Submitted to: Boston College. Connell School of Nursing
Discipline: Nursing

AbstractOn its current development trajectory the world is headed for serious climate change trouble. More carbon emissions will affect all of humanity and with its low adaptation capacity, arid climates and rainfall-dependent agriculture, Africa is particularly at risk. Cillliers offers an in-depth assessment of the implications of climate change for Africans. In addition to reviewing the scientific consensus on the threats climate change is likely to pose in the coming decades, he sheds light on how Africa’s future trends in energy, population and lifestyle will affect carbon emissions. The chapter concludes by comparing Africa’s carbon emissions in four scenarios with the Current Path forecast, namely Made in Africa and Free Trade (highest carbon emissions) and Leapfrogging and Demographic Dividend (lowest carbon emissions).

The Jockey Hollow section and the New Jersey Brigade Area of Morristown National Historical Park (MORR) are predominantly comprised of upland oak-hickory forests that have regrown over the past 200 years from previous land uses. The forest is being damaged by two major stressors, a large population of white-tailed deer and an abundance of non-native, invasive shrubs and herbaceous species. This study explores changes to the forest over 26 years and suggests management techniques to avoid future degradation. The forest is typical of many upland stands in the region, and studies here would be applicable to many lands controlled by the National Park Service and to many public and private land owners. In 1995, 18 vegetation experimental plots were established in the forest, each 20 x 20 m. Ten plots were in areas that had no non-native, invasive plants. The other eight plots had invasive species. All trees, shrubs and a sampling of herbs were recorded in each of the 18 plots. At that time, no GPS technology was available and handwritten maps were used to record locations. The plots were revisited and resurveyed in 2001; however, only 13 plots were found. This 2021 study is a new survey of the plot conditions. The investigators were able to relocate 17 of the original plots. New GPS locations were recorded for these 17 plots to facilitate future studies. The goal of the study was to test if changes over 26 years in forest conditions differed between the original invaded plots as compared to the uninvaded plots. Also, these data will allow us to measure the progress of invasion into previously uninvaded areas. Together, these results will allow the forest managers to focus attention on the most aggressive plant invaders and to understand the fate of this forest type that is being challenged by deer and non-native plants. Over the last 26 years there has been no hunting for deer here. Also, the plots were not within the few deer exclosures at MORR; deer were able to enter the landscape from surrounding heavily wooded areas. Data were collected in four layers of vegetation – mature trees, saplings, shrubs, and herbaceous groundcovers. The mature trees in the invaded forest plots demonstrated declining trends. The species richness declined by 6%, the average number of trees declined by 30%, white ash and flowering dogwood had the most losses, and basal area did not increase over time because very few new saplings grew into mature tree sizes. The uninvaded plots’ mature trees also revealed a 20% declined in richness, number of trees declined by 18%, the greatest losses occurred for red maple and black birch, but basal area increased slightly due to growth of large persisting trees. Saplings in the invaded forest experienced declines over the 26 years. Species richness declined by 38%, number of native saplings decreased by 44%, and number of invasive saplings increased by 600%. In the uninvaded forest, the conditions and trends were variable. Richness decreased by 21%, no invasive saplings found, number of native saplings increased by 37% (due to increases in American beech). With American beech excluded, the number of native saplings decreased by 60%. In both forest types, the declining number of native saplings was primarily caused by excessive deer damage. For the shrub layer in invaded plots, Japanese barberry stems increased by 122% by 2001 and 276% by 2021. Barberry became the dominant species. Similarly, wineberry stands increased 486% in 2001 and 157% for 2021. It is now the second most common species. However, in the uninvaded plots there was no significant increase in the number of barberry stems and wineberry was not present in 1995 or 2001, and only averaged 1.5 stems per plot in 2021. Neither species has a significant presence now and eradication is possible. A major finding is that the process of invasion of these shrubs over 26 years is very slow. For the herbaceous plants, in the invaded plots there was a sharp decrease in cover by 2021 due to the competitive impact by the abundant invasive shrubs. The invasive Japanese stiltgrass declined 86% in cover and native Carex (sedge) species declined by 78%. In the uninvaded forest plots, stiltgrass was present in very low amounts and did not increase significantly over 26 years. The number of quadrats with any stiltgrass only increased from 3 to 5 over the 26 years. These data show that stiltgrass invades slowly in the uninvaded plots, but in the invaded plots it was greatly replaced by invasive shrubs. Overall, the rate of change of the native herb cover was slow. Together, these data suggest that currently uninvaded forest areas can be protected by monitoring and rigorously eliminating any initial invasions by non-native shrubs and herbs. Once these species reach a significant presence in number of stems or cover in a plot they explode in number. Early intervention when invasive plants first appear is the most practical management tool. Reduction of deer density will also increase the reproductive potential and sustainability of our main forest tree species. Planting of new young canopy tree species, with protection from deer, can retard the ability of invasive plants to begin new populations.

Because of climate change, together with rapid urbanisation and continuous population growth, the global demand for space cooling is increasing dramatically. Under a business-as-usual trajectory, there will be a more than threefold rise in the number of in-use air conditioners worldwide by 2050. A radical shift to innovative space cooling technologies is therefore essential, ones that can sustainably meet the growing requirements. Phase change material embedded radiant chilled ceiling, called PCM-RCC, offers an emerging alternative for more sustainable space cooling provision. This system provides a range of benefits to endusers, in terms of efficiency and indoor environmental quality, together with demand-side flexibility. PCM-RCC, however, is still under development, and further research is needed to realise its full capabilities. The present work experimentally analyses the thermal-energy performance of a PCM-RCC system using a full-scale test cabin equipped with PCM ceiling panels. Here, the transient thermal behaviour of the panels besides the cooling energy delivered in charging-discharging cycles are examined. Additionally, the indoor thermal comfort and peak energy demand reduction enabled by the present PCM-RCC are discussed. Based on the results, typically 4–5 hours of chilled water circulation overnight could sufficiently be able to fully recharge the panels in the morning. Over 80% of the occupancy time was found within Class B thermal comfort defined in ISO 7730. About 70% of the system’s daily electricity usage time was during off-peak hours. The significance of implementing optimal predictive operating schedules was also highlighted to fully utilise PCM-RCC’s potentials.

This POSTnote looks at hypersonic missile technologies, efforts to develop them, potential applications, and the possible challenges they may present for missile defence and global stability. Key Points: • Hypersonic missiles combine speeds of over five times the speed of sound with significant manoeuvrability during flight. • Their manoeuvrability enables them to change trajectory during flight, making their flight-path and target difficult to predict. • They fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, which means that they may be harder to track at long distances with some surface-based sensors, such as certain radar. • There are two main types of hypersonic missile: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). • HGVs are mounted onto rocket boosters for launch and may be accelerated to speeds of Mach 20 or more. The glider then separates from the booster and flies unpowered in the Earth’s upper atmosphere at altitudes of 30-80 km, before diving towards the target. • HCMs typically have a ramjet or scramjet engine that enables them to reach hypersonic speeds at altitudes of 20-40 km. • China and Russia have reportedly deployed hypersonic missiles that could deliver conventional or nuclear weapons. The US is testing multiple hypersonic technologies. • The AUKUS agreement between the UK, US and Australia includes developing hyper-sonic and counter-hypersonic technologies. • Developing hypersonic missiles requires significant research and development challenges to be overcome, contributing to their high development and manufacturing costs. • The speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles may challenge existing missile defences, although their uses and effectiveness are still being assessed. • Defence analysts disagree about the potential implications of hypersonic missiles for global peace and stability. Some suggest they could increase the risk of conflict escalation, while others say that they will not alter the strategic balance between nuclear powers. • Arms control, export controls and other measures may help limit potential harm to peace and stability, but these approaches face challenges.

Nitrogen (N) plays a dual role in the agri-food system: it is an essential nutrient for all life forms, yet also an environmental pollutant causing a range of environmental and human health impacts. As the plant nutrient needed in greatest quantities, and as a building block of proteins and other biomolecules, N is a necessary part of all life. In the last century, an enormous increase of N turnover in the agri-food system has enabled increasing per-capita food supply for a growing world population, but as an unintended side effect, N pollution has increased to levels widely agreed in science and policy to be far beyond sustainable limits. There is no such thing as perfectly circular N supply. Losses of N to the environment inevitably arise as N is transformed and used in the food system, for example in soil processes, in manure storage, and in fertilizer application. This lost N must be replaced by ‘new’ N, which is N converted to bioavailable forms from the vast atmospheric pool of unreactive dinitrogen (N2). New N comes mainly as synthetic N fertilizer and through a process known as biological N fixation (BNF). In addition, there is a large internal flow of recycled N in the food system, mainly in the form of livestock excreta. This recirculated N, however, is internal to the food system and cannot make up for the inevitable losses of N. The introduction of synthetic N fertilizer during the 20th century revolutionized the entire food system. The industrial production of synthetic N fertilizer was a revolution for agricultural systems because it removed the natural constraint of N scarcity. Given sufficient energy, synthetic N fertilizer can be produced in limitless quantities from atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). This has far-reaching consequences for the whole agri-food system. The annual input of synthetic N fertilizer today is more than twice the annual input of new N in pre-industrial agriculture. Since 1961, increased N input has enabled global output of both crop and livestock products to roughly triple. During the same time period, total food-system N emissions to the environment have also more than tripled. Livestock production is responsible for a large majority of agricultural N emissions. Livestock consume about three-quarters of global cropland N output and are thereby responsible for a similar share of cropland N emissions to air and water. In addition, N emissions from livestock housing and manure management systems contribute a substantial share of global N emissions to air. There is broad political agreement that global N emissions from agriculture should be reduced by about 50%. High-level policy targets of the EU and of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity are for a 50% reduction in N emissions. These targets are in line with a large body of research assessing what would be needed to stay within acceptable limits as regards ecosystem change and human health impacts. In the absence of dietary change towards less N-intensive diets, N emissions from food systems could be reduced by about 30%, compared to business-as-usual scenarios. This could be achieved by implementing a combination of technical measures, improved management practices, improved recycling of wasted N (including N from human excreta), and spatial optimization of agriculture. Human dietary change, especially in the most affluent countries, offers a huge potential for reducing N emissions from food systems. While many of the world’s poor would benefit nutritionally from increasing their consumption of nutrient-rich animal-source foods, many other people consume far more nutrients than is necessary and could reduce consumption of animal-source food by half without any nutritional issues. Research shows that global adoption of healthy but less N-polluting diets might plausibly cut future food-system N losses by 10–40% compared to business-as-usual scenarios. There is no single solution for solving the N challenge. Research shows that efficiency improvements and food waste reductions will almost certainly be insufficient to reach agreed environmental targets. To reach agreed targets, it seems necessary to also shift global average food consumption onto a trajectory with less animal-source food.

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected conviviality and inequality in societies worldwide. This research article examines the dynamic interplay between these dimensions in Berlin, Germany, during the pandemic. The study’s main question explores how the relationship between inequality and conviviality evolved in the context of the pandemic and the correspondent containment measures. Four sub-questions address specific aspects: 1) the hierarchy of infection and disease trajectory based on access to protection, 2) the effects of containment measures on income, education, and well-being among various social groups, 3) changes in conviviality at the microlevel (households, neighbourhoods, etc.), and 4) shifts in virtual interaction and media usage during “social distancing”. The survey in Berlin involved 2,502 households and spanned three collection periods. Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) was used, ensuring representative responses. The findings are analyzed through Goran Therborn’s three levels of analysis: resource, vital, and existential inequalities (Therborn 2013).

This guidance note is about how donors, can support a demographic transition in sub- Saharan Africa. The demographic transition is the evolution from high to low mortality and fertility rates, with associated changes in age structures. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on a trajectory of rapid population growth. Mortality rates have been declining for some time while fertility rates started to fall later and at a slower pace, resulting in high population growth. It is estimated that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double between 2020 and 2050 to 2.5 billion. This guidance note refers to support from donors to governments in partner countries in two ways. First, support to adapt to the implications of rapid population growth. Second, support to accelerate the demographic transition. Countries in sub- Saharan Africa need to be prepared for population growth and, importantly, also for a unique “window of opportunity” that occurs when fertility rates fall consistently and at a high pace during the demographic transition. With the right investments, these countries could generate economic opportunities for growth, which in the literature is called the “demographic dividend”.

Currently, to evaluate the dynamic characteristics of objects, quite a large number of devices are used in the form of chronographs, which consist of various optical, thermal and laser sensors. Among the problems of these devices, the following can be distinguished: the lack of recording of the received data; the inaccessibility of taking into account the trajectory of the object flying in the sensor area, as well as taking into consideration the trajectory of the object during the approach to the device frame. The signal received from the infrared sensors is recorded in a separate document in txt format, in the form of a table. When you turn to the document, data is read from the current position of the input data stream in the specified list by an argument in accordance with the given condition. As a result of reading the data, it forms an array that includes N number of columns. The array is constructed in a such way that the first column includes time values, and columns 2...N- the value of voltage . The algorithm uses cycles that perform the function of deleting array rows where there is a fact of exceeding the threshold value in more than two columns, as well as rows where the threshold level was not exceeded. The modified array is converted into two new arrays, each of which includes data from different sensor frames. An array with the coordinates of the centers of the sensor operation zones was created to apply the Pythagorean theorem in three-dimensional space, which is necessary for calculating the exact distance between the zones. The time is determined by the difference in the response of the first and second sensor frames. Knowing the path and time, we are able to calculate the exact speed of the object. For visualization, the oscillograms of each sensor channel were displayed, and a chronograph model was created. The chronograph model highlights in purple the area where the threshold has been exceeded.

Le but du présent travail est d'évaluer l'apport que pourrait avoir l’imposition de règles budgétaires sur le retour au déficit 0 annoncé pour 2027-28 dans le budget 2021-22. Notre approche simule de nombreux scénarios économiques futurs, chacun incorporant des règles budgétaires. Cet exercice est répété un grand nombre de fois, ce qui génère une distribution des déficits budgétaires pour chaque horizon temporel désiré et pour chaque règle budgétaire analysée. Cette approche s’appuie sur une étude historique des écarts budgétaires pour développer un modèle de simulations des écarts qui prend en compte leur évolution dans le temps et leur corrélation entre les composantes budgétaires à l’aide d’un modèle à facteur. Notre approche en deux étapes permet de simuler des déficits futurs : en nous basant sur la valeur simulée du facteur, les écarts des diverses composantes budgétaires sont déterminés. Ensuite, pour chaque composante du budget, le revenu ou dépense avéré est obtenu directement de la valeur prévue au budget (qui reflète l’application d’une règle budgétaire) et de l’écart. La valeur simulée du déficit peut ainsi être calculée. Nous étudions par simulation l’impact de deux grandes classes de règles budgétaires. La première limite la croissance des dépenses de chaque mission à 5% par année alors que la deuxième permet une hausse plus élevée pour la santé et les services sociaux, 6%, que pour les autres missions, 2%. Chacune de ces règles est analysée sous un scénario de référence et deux spécifications alternatives : une première permet un effet de rétroaction et impose une diminution des dépenses si les cibles budgétaires sont ratées, alors que la deuxième considère une augmentation de l’incertitude économique et budgétaire. Dans ce rapport, nous prenons comme point de départ la trajectoire de déficits prévue par le Ministère dans les documents budgétaires de mars dernier. En particulier, nous imposons un retour à l’équilibre budgétaire lors de l’année fiscale 2027-28 et ajustons les revenus pour refléter cette contrainte. Nos résultats de simulation se trouvent aux tableaux 1 et 2 et sont synthétisés aux tableaux 3 et 4.

This study investigates Korea's success in the area of skills development and what role the Korean government played during the stages of Korean economic development since the 1960s. Major achievements connected with the Korean skills development system over the last few decades are described and evaluated. However, it is worth noting that the Korean system has confronted challenges, arising from rapid changes in the economic and social environment that have put the sustainability of its current skills development system into question. In this regard, this study also analyzes the direction the Korean skills development system is moving toward and makes policy recommendations concerning how current challenges may be better handled.In doing so, the notion of lifelong skills development is derived. This notion signals a shift away from a government-led, supply driven model towards a locally based, demand-driven model, in order to align the supply of education and training programs with the needs of local business, and the improved effectiveness of Korea's skills development system over the coming years. The Korean government has played a key role in establishing the skills development system over the last few decades. Government intervention in skills development has addressed both the public and private sector. In the public sector, government initiatives established vocational education and training institutions in response to rising demand for skills, and according to economic development strategy. In the private sector, government legislation established regulations and institutions that incentivized private employer investment in in-plant training by providing financial support (e.g., levy-exemption) until the late 1990s, with the levygrant system under the Employment Insurance Act effective since 1995. These measures helped employers to bear costs related to training prospective and existing employees. Additionally, national qualification systems helped job seekers to undertake vocational training, which was in high demand throughout the labor market. This paper briefly describes challenges and concerns connected with establishing a lifelong skills development system in Korea. The analysis will focus on how the existing government-led VET system may be transformed into a public-private partnership based model that provides better VET programs. Additionally, the VET system needs to foster lifelong employment or employability rather than lifelong jobs, which was previously the cornerstone of the Korean employment system. Regarding career development, policy intervention needs to disestablish the "monorail" career trajectory of school-work-retirement, in favor of diversified careers by establishing flexible and competency-based qualification systems. This paper also describes some examples of instances of application of the lifelong skills development system in Korea. In-depth case studies are carried out regarding the development and application of National Competency Standards, the local-industry tailored skills development system, and reform of secondary vocational education focused on specialized vocational and Meister Schools in Korea. However, the Korean central government must still perform a significant role in managing and monitoring skills development. It should continue to use policy to foster public-private partnership in skills development, as local municipalities and sectoral stakeholders are yet to develop their own capabilities in this area. In addition, National Competency Standards (NCS) and regional Human Resources Development (HRD) committees need to further develop their roles and functions in order to better meet the diversified demands of business and employees and adapt to rapid technological and organizational changes. To further expedite the fine-tuning of skill policy in rapidly changing markets, forecasting skill demand and supply requires further attention, although it is becoming incr

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3