Academic literature on the topic 'Central projections'

To investigate the subcortical efferent connections of visual area V2, we injected tritiated amino acids under electrophysiological control into 15 V2 sites in 14 macaques. The injection sites included the fovea representation as well as representations ranging from central to far peripheral eccentricities in both the upper and lower visual fields. The results indicated that V2 projects topographically to different portions of the inferior and lateral pulvinar and to the superficial and intermediate layers of the superior colliculus. Within the pulvinar, the V2 projections terminated in fields P1, P2, and P4, with the strongest projection being in P2. Central visual field injections in V2 labeled projection zones in P1 and P2, whereas peripheral field injections labeled P1, P2, and P4. No projections were found in P3. Both central and peripheral field injections in V2 projected topographically to the superficial and intermediate layers of the superior colliculus. Projections from V2 to the pulvinar and the superior colliculus constituted cortical–subcortical loops through which circuits serving spatial attention are activated.

The main result is a wall-crossing formula for central projections defined on submanifolds of a Real projective space. Our formula gives the jump of the degree of such a projection when the center of the projection varies. The fact that the degree depends on the projection is a new phenomenon, specific to Real algebraic geometry. We illustrate this phenomenon in many interesting situations. The crucial assumption on the class of maps we consider is relative orientability, a condition which allows us to define a ℤ-valued degree map in a coherent way. We end the article with several examples, e.g. the pole placement map associated with a quotient, the Wronski map, and a new version of the Real subspace problem.

Abstract Planque, B., Bellier, E., and Loots, C. 2011. Uncertainties in projecting spatial distributions of marine populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1045–1050. Projection of future spatial distributions of marine populations is a central issue for ecologists and managers. The measure of projection uncertainty is particularly important, because projections can only be useful if they are given with a known and sufficiently high level of confidence. Uncertainties can arise for the observation process, conceptual and numerical model formulations, parameter estimates, model evaluation, appropriate consideration of spatial and temporal scales, and finally the potential of adaptation of living systems. Comprehensive analyses of these multiple sources of uncertainty have not been carried out so far, and how these uncertainties are considered in current studies has not yet been described. To analyse how these different sources of uncertainty are currently considered in marine research, we did a survey of published literature during the period 2005–2009. From the 75 publications selected, we calculated how frequently each type of uncertainty was considered. We found that little attention is given to most sources of uncertainty, except for uncertainty in parameter estimates. As a result, most current projections are expected to be far less reliable than usually assumed. The conclusion is that, unless uncertainty can be better accounted for, such projections may be of limited use, or even risky to use for management purposes.

Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of different approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany.

AbstractNorepinephrine (NE) plays a central role in the acquisition of aversive learning via actions in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA) [1, 2]. However, the function of NE in expression of aversively-conditioned responses has not been established. Given the role of the central nucleus of the amygdala (CeA) in the expression of such behaviors [3–5], and the presence of NE axons projections in this brain nucleus [6], we assessed the effects of NE activity in the CeA on behavioral expression using receptor-specific pharmacology and cell- and projection-specific chemogenetic manipulations. We found that inhibition and activation of locus coeruleus (LC) neurons decreases and increases freezing to aversively conditioned cues, respectively. We then show that locally inhibiting or activating LC terminals in CeA is sufficient to achieve this bidirectional modulation of defensive reactions. These findings support the hypothesis that LC projections to CeA are critical for the expression of defensive responses elicited by conditioned threats.

Mestrado em Biologia Molecular e Celular
O Sistema Nervoso (SN) dos mamíferos é uma rede complexa de células especializadas na recepção, transmissão e integração de informação. O desempenho de cada um dos subsistemas depende da forma como a comunicação entre as diferentes áreas se organiza. Várias ferramentas têm vindo a ser desenvolvidas para o efeito, sendo actualmente os traçadores neuroanatómicos aquelas de uso mais abrangente. Após injecção do traçador seleccionado na área pretendida do SN, este é incorporado e subsequentemente transportado de forma retrógrada ou anterógrada de acordo com as suas propriedades. O estudo dos sistemas supraespinais de controlo da dor tem em muito beneficiado do uso desta tecnologia. Várias áreas do encéfalo e, em particular, da formação reticular do tronco cerebral, participam na modulação supraspinal da dor. O núcleo reticular ventral (VRt) do bolbo raquidiano continua a ser uma área pouco explorada do encéfalo, contrariamente ao seu homólogo dorsal (DRt), cujo envolvimento na modulação da dor se encontra bem estabelecido. No presente trabalho, as projecções encefálicas (eferentes e aferentes) do VRt são analisadas no rato, recorrendo-se para tal a injecções intracerebrais de traçadores neuronais anterógrados e retrógrados, respectivamente o dextrano-amina biotinilado (BDA) e a subunidade B da toxina da cólera (CTb). Verificou-se que os neurónios do VRt recebem projecções e projectam para áreas do encéfalo implicadas no processamento somatosensitivo, emocional e cognitivo da dor. Estes resultados corroboram com o papel do VRt na modulação da dor. As projecções encefálicas do VRt e DRt para o tronco cerebral são em si muito semelhantes, com o VRt a projectar para áreas mais restritas do diencéfalo. O papel de cada um dos núcleos na modulação da dor poderá estar relacionado com as diferenças observadas nas projecções dos núcleos. ABSTRACT: The nervous system (SN) of a mammal is a complex network of cells specialized for the reception, transmission and integration of information. The performance of each subsystem depends on how the communication between different areas is organized. Several tools have been developed for this purpose, being currently the neuroanatomical tracers those of wider use. After selected tracer injection in the desired area of the SN, this one is incorporated and subsequently transported anterogradely and retrogradely according to their properties. The study of the supraspinal pain control systems has greatly benefited from the use of this technology. Several areas of the brain and, in particular, the reticular formation of the brainstem, are involved in supraspinal pain modulation. The ventral portion of the caudal reticular formation (VRt) remains a relatively unexplored area of the brain contrary to its dorsal counterpart (DRt), whose involvement in pain modulation is well established. In the present work, the VRt brain connections (efferent and afferent projections) are investigated in the rat, using iontophoretic injections of the anterograde tracer biotinylated-dextran amine (BDA) and the retrograde tracer cholera toxin-subunit (CTb). It was found that neurons from the VRt receive and project to areas of the brain involved in somatosensitive, emotional and cognitive pain processing. The set of brain projections observed in VRt is compatible with a role in pain modulation. VRt and DRt brain projections to the brainstem are similar; however, concerning to the diencephalon, VRt has a narrower set of targets. It remains unclear how these differences relate to differential roles in pain modulation.

Climate change is one of the great challenges facing agriculture in the 21st century. The goal of this study was to produce projections of crop yields for the central United States in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s based on the relationship between weather and yield from historical crop yields from 1980 to 2010. These projections were made across 16 states in the US, from Louisiana in the south to Minnesota in the north. They include projections for maize, soybeans, cotton, spring wheat, and winter wheat. Simulated weather variables based on three climate scenarios were used to project future crop yields. In addition, factors of soil characteristics, topography, and fertilizer application were used in the crop production models. Two technology scenarios were used: one simulating a future in which crop technology continues to improve and the other a future in which crop technology remains similar to where it is today. Results showed future crop yields to be responsive to both the different climate scenarios and the different technology scenarios. The effects of a changing climate regime on crop yields varied both geographically throughout the study area and from crop to crop. One broad geographic trend was greater potential for crop yield losses in the south and greater potential for gains in the north. Whether or not new technologies enable crop yields to continue to increase as the climate becomes less favorable is a major factor in agricultural production in the coming century. Results of this study indicate the degree to which society relies on these new technologies will be largely dependent on the degree of the warming that occurs. Continued research into the potential negative impacts of climate change on the current crop system in the United States is needed to mitigate the widespread losses in crop productivity that could result. In addition to study of negative impacts, study should be undertaken with an interest to determine any potential new opportunities for crop development with the onset of higher temperatures as a result of climate change. Studies like this one with a broad geographic range should be complemented by studies of narrower scope that can manipulate climatic variables under controlled conditions. Investment into these types of agricultural studies will give the agricultural sector in the United States greater tools with which they can mitigate the disruptive effects of a changing climate.

We consider the Dirichlet-problem associated with H-surfaces in central projection.By using a variational approach ,and in connection with the theory of minimal sets ,we obtain very general existence and regularity results provided the mean curvature fulfills a certain monotony condition

The Central Arizona Project Water Availability Model (CAPWAM) is a simplified model of the hydrology and operations of the Colorado River designed to estimate water availability for the Central Arizona Project (CAP) for the period 1985 to 2040. CAPWAM differs from other models of the basin in that it uses synthetic streamflow data. When historic streamflow data are used in CAPWAM, results are very similar to those of the Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). However when data from a first-order autoregressive streamflow generator are used in CAPWAM, there is greater average availability of water for the CAP and also greater variability in diversion. Both surplus deliveries and severe shortage deliveries to southern Arizona are more frequent in CAPWAM than CRSS. Using only historic data in a river operations model produces results in which extreme events--both floods and droughts--are underestimated.

The aim of the work, carried out within the framework of research on currently occurring rather than predicted climate changes, was to confirm or deny the hypothesis of increasing incidence of droughts in central Poland (the Bydgoszcz region) over the years 1986-2015. According to projections of climate change, the variability and extremity of weather conditions are expected to increase. In studies conducted under some climate scenarios, it was shown that atmospheric precipitation variability in central Poland will increase even to 20%, depending on the scenario. Some researches indicate that these changes are already taking place. The material was the data of precipitation measurements gained from weather station, located in a poorly urbanized area, at the Research Center of the University of Science and Technology. Totals of atmospheric precipitation in the 30-year period were analyzed (1986-2015). Dry periods in individual months, seasons, half-years and entire years were identified on the basis of the relative precipitation index (RPI). The precipitation totals in the years 1986-2015 were characterized by a very high temporal variability and thus increased the climatic risk of plants cultivation. The significant positive trend of precipitation totals was found only for the cold half-year, which is consistent with the projections of the IPCC report. The frequency of the occurrence dry months was 38.6%, of seasons 38.3%, half-years 35.0% and years 30.0%. There was noted no increasing frequency of dry periods with years; just to the contrary, a decreasing tendency was identified.

This paper presents an approach to defining and quantifying the complexity of systems as represented in mixed (directed and non-directed) bipartite graphs through the presentation of a central example as well as other applications. The approach presented defines nine measurements of different properties of the graph system. These measurements are derived from the representation of the system into a three dimension relational design structure matrix as well as the projections and transformations of this matrix. The metrics generated address dimensional and connective size, shortest path properties, and the decomposability of the system. Finally, a normalization and aggregate approach of these metrics is then given. This aggregation is visualized with spider graphs that facilitate viewing multiple aspects of complexity within a single perspective.

Musicology has long since been established as central part of the so-called Digital Humanities. For many areas of music culture as a whole, digitization is considered the central paradigm of our time. But what exactly does this mean, and is it not unusual for technical and cultural developments to be thrown through and into each other? In literary studies as well as in cultural and contemporary history, a critical discussion has already begun on the multiple narratives and projections about „(post)digitality“, which are particularly common in science itself. Against this background, the article pleads for taking digitality seriously as an object of investigation in historical musicology (and possibly also in the history of musicology) and for initiating a corresponding field of research. For example, what promises and debates about loss associated with digitality can be observed within music culture at different times and in different contexts, but also what sources could provide information about this. The introduction of the CD in the 1980s and the emergence of the EDM sub-genre Glitch in the mid-1990s serve as starting examples for such a critical-historical view of and on digitality.

The amygdaloid complex located within the medial temporal lobe plays an important role in the acquisition and expression of learned fear associations (Quirk et al. 2003) and contains three main components: the lateral nucleus (LA), the basal nucleus (BLA), and the central nucleus (CE) (Faber and Sah, 2002). The lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA) is widely accepted to be a key site of plastic synaptic events that contributes to fear learning (Pare, Quirk, LeDoux, 2004). There are two main types of neurons within the LA and the BLA: principal pyramidal-like cells which form projection neurons and are glutamatergic and local circuit GABAergic interneurons (Faber and Sah, 2002). In auditory fear conditioning, convergence of tone [conditioned stimulus (CS)] and foot-shock [unconditioned stimulus (US)] inputs potentiates the synaptic transmission containing CS information from the thalamus and cortex to LA, which leads to larger responses in LA in the presentation of subsequent tones only. The increasing LA responses disinhibit the CE neurons via the intercalated (ITC) cells, eliciting fear responses via excessive projections to brain stem and hypothalamic sites (Pare, Quirk, LeDoux, 2004). As a result, rats learn to freeze to a tone that predicts a foot-shock. Once acquired, conditioned fear associations are not always expressed and repeated presentation of the tone CS in the absence of US causes conditioned fear responses to rapidly diminish, a phenomenon termed fear extinction (Quirk et al. 2003). Extinction does not erase the CS-US association, instead it forms a new memory that inhibits conditioned response (Quirk et al. 2003)

Projecting future demand for electricity is central to power sector planning, as these projections inform capacity investment requirements and related infrastructure expansions. Electricity is not currently economically storable in large volumes. Thus, the underlying drivers of electricity demand and potential market shifts must be carefully considered to minimize power system costs.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Board of Directors of the Central Bank, as per the provisions of Article 5 of Law 31 of 1992, submits a report to the Congress of the Republic that describes the macroeconomic performance for the first half of 2019 and its prospects for the remainder of the year. The last two chapters report on the composition of the country’s international reserves and the projection of the financial situation of Banco de la República for 2019. The last chapter analyzes the payment systems in the cou

The article is based on three cases of private psychoanalytic work with successful businessmen from central and northern parts of Ukraine. The research methodology was psychoanalytic theories devoted to the unconscious meanings of money and the role of money in the psychoanalytic setting, including object theory, drive theory, psychosexual development theory, narcissism theory, Oedipus complex, transference and resistance. What presents the interest of this study are the cases when those who grew up in poverty finally obtains such a desired object — money, wealth, however, something unconscious hinders this person to get satisfied by it and even to admit obtaining it. The presented clinical work was conducted as classic psychoanalysis in person with different duration: 5, 10 and 46 months. Men were asked to tell whatever comes to mind: thoughts, memories, dreams, phantasies, feelings etc. The role of psychoanalyst was to hear specific connections between patient’s stories and to analyze them together with the patient. The cases presented highlight several psychological features of young men «millionaires» who suffer from their own success. 1. Sensitivity to Father’s (real or symbolic) acceptance of their business and financial success. 2. Activation of unconscious Oedipus complex and Complex of castration because of the risk to dethrone the Father in reality, with experiences of guilt, fear and expectation of punishment. 3. Projection of their own envy, hate, wish to avenge and killing phantasies into external objects (friends, partners, psychoanalyst) with building individual defensive strategies from them. These psychological features were associated not only with suffering and psychopathological symptoms but also with impossibility to continue business development. In addition, the cases analyzed in the article show some difficulties in building business connected with the generations gap. Fathers from the USSR or the 90s teach their sons to act in the way that is not relevant for successful careers nowadays. This latent or manifested struggle between generations may be an important factor in abovementioned psychological features.

Tax amnesties have taken centre stage as a compliance tool in recent years. The OECD estimates that since 2009 tax amnesties in 40 jurisdictions have resulted in the collection of an additional €102 billion in tax revenue. A number of African countries have introduced tax amnesties in the last decade, including Nigeria, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania. Despite their global popularity, the efficacy of tax amnesties as a tax compliance tool remains in doubt. The revenue is often below expectations, and it probably could have been raised through effective use of regular enforcement measures. It is also argued that tax amnesties might incentivise non-compliance – taxpayers may engage in non-compliance in the hope of benefiting from an amnesty. This paper examines the administration of tax amnesties in various jurisdictions around the world, including the United States, Australia, Canada, Kenya and South Africa. The paper makes a cost-benefit analysis of these and other tax amnesties – and from this analysis develops a model tax amnesty, whose features maximise the benefits of a tax amnesty while minimising the potential costs. The model tax amnesty: (1) is permanent, (2) is available only to taxpayers who make a voluntary disclosure, (3) relieves taxpayers of penalties, interest and the risk of prosecution, but treats intentional and unintentional non-compliance differently, (4) has clear reporting requirements for taxpayers, and (5) is communicated clearly to attract non-compliant taxpayers without appearing unfair to the compliant ones. The paper then focuses on the Ugandan tax amnesty introduced in July 2019 – a Voluntary Disclosure Programme (VDP). As at 7 November 2020, this initiative had raised USh16.8 billion (US$6.2 million) against a projection of USh45 billion (US$16.6 million). The paper examines the legal regime and administration of this VDP, scoring it against the model tax amnesty. It notes that, while the Ugandan VDP partially matches up to the model tax amnesty, because it is permanent, restricted to taxpayers who make voluntary disclosure and relieves penalties and interest only, it still falls short due to a number of limitations. These include: (1) communication of the administration of the VDP through a public notice, instead of a practice note that is binding on the tax authority; (2) uncertainty regarding situations where a VDP application is made while the tax authority has been doing a secret investigation into the taxpayer’s affairs; (3) the absence of differentiated treatment between taxpayers involved in intentional non-compliance, and those whose non-compliance may be unintentional; (4) lack of clarity on how the VDP protects the taxpayer when non-compliance involves the breach of other non-tax statutes, such as those governing financial regulation; (5)absence of clear timelines in the administration of the VDP, which creates uncertainty;(6)failure to cater for voluntary disclosures with minor errors; (7) lack of clarity on VDP applications that result in a refund position for the applicant; and (8) lack of clarity on how often a VDP application can be made. The paper offers recommendations on how the Ugandan VDP can be aligned to match the model tax amnesty, in order to gain the most from this compliance tool.