Journal articles: 'Cautious inference'

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Thöne, Helmut, Werner Kießling, and Ulrich Güntzer. "On cautious probabilistic inference and default detachment." Annals of Operations Research 55, no. 1 (February 1995): 195–224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02031721.

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Dafoe, Allan, John R. Oneal, and Bruce Russett. "The Democratic Peace: Weighing the Evidence and Cautious Inference." International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 1 (March 2013): 201–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12055.

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De Cooman, Gert, Jasper De Bock, and Márcio Alves Diniz. "Coherent Predictive Inference under Exchangeability with Imprecise Probabilities." Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 52 (January 10, 2015): 1–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1613/jair.4490.

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Coherent reasoning under uncertainty can be represented in a very general manner by coherent sets of desirable gambles. In a context that does not allow for indecision, this leads to an approach that is mathematically equivalent to working with coherent conditional probabilities. If we do allow for indecision, this leads to a more general foundation for coherent (imprecise-)probabilistic inference. In this framework, and for a given finite category set, coherent predictive inference under exchangeability can be represented using Bernstein coherent cones of multivariate polynomials on the simplex generated by this category set. This is a powerful generalisation of de Finetti's Representation Theorem allowing for both imprecision and indecision. We define an inference system as a map that associates a Bernstein coherent cone of polynomials with every finite category set. Many inference principles encountered in the literature can then be interpreted, and represented mathematically, as restrictions on such maps. We discuss, as particular examples, two important inference principles: representation insensitivitya strengthened version of Walley's representation invarianceand specificity. We show that there is an infinity of inference systems that satisfy these two principles, amongst which we discuss in particular the skeptically cautious inference system, the inference systems corresponding to (a modified version of) Walley and Bernard's Imprecise Dirichlet Multinomial Models (IDMM), the skeptical IDMM inference systems, and the Haldane inference system. We also prove that the latter produces the same posterior inferences as would be obtained using Haldane's improper prior, implying that there is an infinity of proper priors that produce the same coherent posterior inferences as Haldane's improper one. Finally, we impose an additional inference principle that allows us to characterise uniquely the immediate predictions for the IDMM inference systems.

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Rogers, Mark F., Colin Campbell, and Yiming Ying. "Probabilistic Inference of Biological Networks via Data Integration." BioMed Research International 2015 (2015): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/707453.

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There is significant interest in inferring the structure of subcellular networks of interaction. Here we consider supervised interactive network inference in which a reference set of known network links and nonlinks is used to train a classifier for predicting new links. Many types of data are relevant to inferring functional links between genes, motivating the use of data integration. We use pairwise kernels to predict novel links, along with multiple kernel learning to integrate distinct sources of data into a decision function. We evaluate various pairwise kernels to establish which are most informative and compare individual kernel accuracies with accuracies for weighted combinations. By associating a probability measure with classifier predictions, we enable cautious classification, which can increase accuracy by restricting predictions to high-confidence instances, and data cleaning that can mitigate the influence of mislabeled training instances. Although one pairwise kernel (the tensor product pairwise kernel) appears to work best, different kernels may contribute complimentary information about interactions: experiments inS. cerevisiae(yeast) reveal that a weighted combination of pairwise kernels applied to different types of data yields the highest predictive accuracy. Combined with cautious classification and data cleaning, we can achieve predictive accuracies of up to 99.6%.

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Lee, Jinhee, and Inseok Song. "Effect of Prior Information on Bayesian Membership Calculations for Nearby Young Star Associations." Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 10, S314 (November 2015): 67–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1743921315006341.

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AbstractWe present a refined moving group membership diagnostics scheme based on Bayesian inference. Compared to the BANYAN II method, we improved the calculation by updating bona fide members of a moving group, field star treatment, and uniform spatial distribution of moving group members. Here, we present the detailed description of our method and the new results for Bayesian membership calculation. Comparison of our method with BANYAN II shows probability differences up to ~90%. We conclude that more cautious consideration is needed in moving group membership based on Bayesian inference.

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TRILLAS, E. "ON LOGIC AND FUZZY LOGIC." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 01, no. 02 (December 1993): 107–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488593000073.

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This paper mainly consists of a review of some basic tools of Inexact Inference, its reduction to classical logic and its cautious use of Fuzzy Logic. Those tools are the concept of Conditional Relation, its greatest case of Material Conditional and the concept of Logical-States as possible worlds of "true" elements. Some recent results characterizing Monotonic Preorders are also introduced, in both the Classical and Fuzzy cases. Everything lies on the semantic level of Logic and is presented in a naive mathematical style.

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O’Neil-Pirozzi, Therese M. "Cautious inference of support for thickening liquids for persons with dementia in residential aged care facilities." Evidence-Based Communication Assessment and Intervention 7, no. 4 (December 2013): 135–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17489539.2014.923175.

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Wang, Liang-Jong, Yen-Wei Chou, and Jen-Pan Huang. "Testing the Effect of Sampling Effort on Inferring Phylogeographic History in Psolodesmus mandarinus (Calopterygidae, Odonata)." Diversity 14, no. 10 (September 28, 2022): 809. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14100809.

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Phylogeographic studies have revealed spatial genetic structure and inferred geographical processes that may have generated genetic diversity and divergence. These study results have implications not only on the processes that generate intraspecific and interspecific diversity but also on the essential integrals for defining evolutionary entities (e.g., species). However, the resulting phylogeographic inferences might be impacted by the sampling design, i.e., the number of individuals per population and the number of geographic populations studied. The effect of sampling bias on phylogeographic inferences remains poorly explored. With a comprehensive sampling design (including 186 samples from 56 localities), we studied the phylogeographic history of a Taiwanese endemic damselfly, Psolodesmus mandarinus, with a specific focus on testing the impact of the sampling design on phylogeographic inference. We found a significant difference in the genetic structure of eastern and western populations separated by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan. However, isolation by the CMR did not lead to reciprocally monophyletic geographic populations. We further showed that, when only a subset of individuals was randomly included in the study, monophyletic geographic populations were obtained. Furthermore, historical demographic expansion could become undetectable when only a subset of samples was used in the analyses. Our results demonstrate the impact of sampling design on phylogeographic inferences. Future studies need to be cautious when inferring the effect of isolation by a physical barrier.

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Kyriakopoulos, Grigorios, Stamatios Ntanos, Theodoros Anagnostopoulos, Nikolaos Tsotsolas, Ioannis Salmon, and Klimis Ntalianis. "Internet of Things (IoT)-Enabled Elderly Fall Verification, Exploiting Temporal Inference Models in Smart Homes." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 2 (January 8, 2020): 408. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020408.

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Everyday life of the elderly and impaired population living in smart homes is challenging because of possible accidents that may occur due to daily activities. In such activities, persons often lean over (to reach something) and, if they not cautious, are prone to falling. To identify fall incidents, which could stochastically cause serious injuries or even death, we propose specific temporal inference models; namely, CM-I and CM-II. These models can infer a fall incident based on classification methods by exploiting wearable Internet of Things (IoT) altimeter sensors adopted by seniors. We analyzed real and synthetic data of fall and lean over incidents to test the proposed models. The results are promising for incorporating such inference models to assist healthcare for fall verification of seniors in smart homes. Specifically, the CM-II model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.98, which is the highest accuracy when compared to other models in the literature under the McNemar’s test criterion. These models could be incorporated in wearable IoT devices to provide early warning and prediction of fall incidents to clinical doctors.

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Stumpf, Michael P. H. "Multi-model and network inference based on ensemble estimates: avoiding the madness of crowds." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 17, no. 171 (October 2020): 20200419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0419.

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Recent progress in theoretical systems biology, applied mathematics and computational statistics allows us to compare the performance of different candidate models at describing a particular biological system quantitatively. Model selection has been applied with great success to problems where a small number—typically less than 10—of models are compared, but recent studies have started to consider thousands and even millions of candidate models. Often, however, we are left with sets of models that are compatible with the data, and then we can use ensembles of models to make predictions. These ensembles can have very desirable characteristics, but as I show here are not guaranteed to improve on individual estimators or predictors. I will show in the cases of model selection and network inference when we can trust ensembles, and when we should be cautious. The analyses suggest that the careful construction of an ensemble—choosing good predictors—is of paramount importance, more than had perhaps been realized before: merely adding different methods does not suffice. The success of ensemble network inference methods is also shown to rest on their ability to suppress false-positive results. A Jupyter notebook which allows carrying out an assessment of ensemble estimators is provided.

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Rineau, Valentin, René Zaragüeta i Bagils, and Michel Laurin. "Impact of errors on cladistic inference: simulation-based comparison between parsimony and three-taxon analysis." Contributions to Zoology 87, no. 1 (April 13, 2018): 25–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/18759866-08701003.

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Simulation-based and experimental studies are crucial to produce factual arguments to solve theoretical and methodological debates in phylogenetics. However, despite the large number of works that tested the relative efficiency of phylogenetic methods with various evolutionary models, the capacity of methods to manage various sources of error and homoplasy has almost never been studied. By applying ordered and unordered methods to datasets with iterative addition of errors in the ordering scheme, we show that unordered coding in parsimony is not a more cautious option. A second debate concerns how to handle reversals, especially when they are regarded as possible synapomorphies. By comparing analyses of reversible and irreversible characters, we show empirically that three-taxon analysis (3ta) manages reversals better than parsimony. For Brownian motion data, we highlight that 3ta is also more efficient than parsimony in managing random errors, which might result from taphonomic problems or any homoplasy generating events that do not follow the dichotomy reversal/ convergence, such as lateral gene transfer. We show parsimony to be more efficient with numerous character states (more than four), and 3ta to be more efficient with binary characters, both methods being equally efficient with four states per character. We finally compare methods using two empirical cases of known evolution.

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Fischer, Claude S. "The 2004 GSS Finding of Shrunken Social Networks: An Artifact?" American Sociological Review 74, no. 4 (August 2009): 657–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/000312240907400408.

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McPherson, Smith-Lovin, and Brashears (2006, 2008b) reported that Americans' social networks shrank precipitously from 1985 to 2004. When asked to list the people with whom they discussed “important matters,” respondents to the 2004 General Social Survey (GSS) provided about one-third fewer names than did respondents in the 1985 survey. Critically, the percentage of respondents who provided no names at all increased from about 10 percent in 1985 to about 25 percent in 2004. The 2004 results contradict other relevant data, however, and they contain serious anomalies; this suggests that the apparently dramatic increase in social isolation is an artifact. One possible source of the artifact is the section of the 2004 interview preceding the network question; it may have been unusually taxing. Another possible source is a random technical error. With as yet no clear account for these inconsistencies and anomalies, scholars should be cautious in using the 2004 network data. Scholars and general readers alike should draw no inference from the 2004 GSS as to whether Americans' social networks changed substantially between 1985 and 2004; they probably did not.

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Vagale, Anete. "Evaluation Simulator Platform for Extended Collision Risk of Autonomous Surface Vehicles." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 5 (May 21, 2022): 705. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10050705.

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Autonomous surface vehicles need to be at least as safe as conventional vessels, if not safer, when navigating on waters. With a great deal of navigation algorithms for surface vessels out there, the safety of their produced paths is questionable, and, in most cases, complicated to assess and compare. Hence, this paper proposes a method for extended collision risk assessment for paths generated by autonomous navigation algorithms as follows: (1) static, dynamic, and historic risk factors are calculated; (2) individual risk value is determined using a fuzzy inference system; (3) the extended collision risk assessment (ECRA) score is acquired using a root-mean-square method. Finally, a comparison of the ECRA score of each path determines the path with the lowest risk. The validation results show that the proposed method is able to detect lower/higher risk scenarios and assign an adequate risk value in most cases. Risk reduction for cautious paths varies up to 8.43%, while risk increases for incautious paths—up to 57.98%. The results indicate that the method could be used for navigation algorithm evaluation and comparison with some improvements. This research also reveals several promising future directions and applications of the method.

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Paterson, Lindsay. "Education, Social Attitudes and Social Participation among Adults in Britain." Sociological Research Online 19, no. 1 (February 2014): 187–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.5153/sro.3235.

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A stable finding of research on civic participation is the correlation between overall educational attainment and various attributes that are relevant to democracy, such as propensity to be active, to vote, and to hold views on important public issues. But research since the 1990s has suggested that we should be cautious about this inference. The most important question is that raised by the findings of Nie et al. (1996) on the USA, showing that rising overall levels of education, while probably making populations more liberal, did not make them more likely to vote. Even that conclusion may be too general, because research by, for example, Campbell (2004) and Nie and Hillygus (2001) shows that the content and style of an educational course are relevant. More problematic still are questions about the nature of the citizens which education might help to create: is education democratically desirable because it makes people think, or because it makes people socially liberal (which is the general tenor of most of the writing on this topic)? The paper therefore asks, using British data, what kind of education matters for social attitudes and civic participation by adults? Several British data sources are used, mainly the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts, the British Social Attitudes Survey and the British Household Panel Study.

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McOuat, Gordon. "The logical systematist: George Bentham and his Outline of a new system of logic." Archives of Natural History 30, no. 2 (October 2003): 203–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/anh.2003.30.2.203.

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George Bentham was not only a great natural historian, he was, initially, a philosopher and logician of enormous promise. His first published work, the oft-forgotten Outline of a new system of logic (1827) has been heralded by some as the opening salvo in the overthrow of the Aristotelian syllogism's grip on logical inference. The move was a defiant political gesture. The young Bentham composed Outline in close concert with his famous uncle, the great utilitarian Jeremy Bentham, expanding and evolving Jeremy's attempts at a new logical system. Bentham meant Outline to be a contribution to the development of the whole utilitarian project. Yet, after 1827, Bentham was never again to write explicitly on logic and philosophy. His heart seemed to lie in natural history, his first love. However, Bentham never really abandoned the utilitarian picture of logic and philosophy. Recent discoveries in the Bentham papers reveal the strong connection between the Benthamite attack on received philosophical categories and George's role in the development of modern institutional natural history. Bentham the logician can be discovered in Bentham the reformist naturalist. This paper examines Bentham's role in the development of the “new” logic and attempts to explore the notions of a reformed naturalism in his later works. This offers an explanation for Bentham's cautious response to the second great revolution of the nineteenth century: the Darwinian revolution.

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Kampik, Timotheus, and Juan Carlos Nieves. "Abstract argumentation and the rational man." Journal of Logic and Computation 31, no. 2 (February 4, 2021): 654–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/logcom/exab003.

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Abstract Abstract argumentation has emerged as a method for non-monotonic reasoning that has gained popularity in the symbolic artificial intelligence community. In the literature, the different approaches to abstract argumentation that were refined over the years are typically evaluated from a formal logics perspective; an analysis that is based on models of economically rational decision-making does not exist. In this paper, we work towards addressing this issue by analysing abstract argumentation from the perspective of the rational man paradigm in microeconomic theory. To assess under which conditions abstract argumentation-based decision-making can be considered economically rational, we derive reference independence as a non-monotonic inference property from a formal model of economic rationality and create a new argumentation principle that ensures compliance with this property. We then compare the reference independence principle with other reasoning principles, in particular with cautious monotony and rational monotony. We show that the argumentation semantics as proposed in Dung’s seminal paper, as well as other semantics we evaluate, with the exception of naive semantics and the SCC-recursive CF2 semantics, violate the reference independence principle. Consequently, we investigate how structural properties of argumentation frameworks impact the reference independence principle and identify cyclic expansions (both even and odd cycles) as the root of the problem. Finally, we put reference independence into the context of preference-based argumentation and show that for this argumentation variant, which explicitly models preferences, reference independence cannot be ensured in a straight-forward manner.

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Vodeb, Ksenija, Daša Fabjan, and Marinela Krstinić Nižić. "RESIDENTS’ PERCEPTIONS OF TOURISM IMPACTS AND SUPPORT FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT." Tourism and hospitality management 27, no. 1 (2021): 143–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/thm.27.1.10.

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Purpose – The impact of tourism is an ongoing research interest among scholars as it is directly related to the tourism development process. Residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts can indicate development guidelines if planners pay attention to them. Design – We examine residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts and their support for sustainable tourism development in two similar tourism destinations, Portorož and Opatija, based on their similarity, closeness, and connectedness through time to the present. Approach – There is an urgent need for a strategic development change for both destinations, which are coping with typical negative impacts of tourism, including seasonality, noise and, overcrowding. Methodology – Four hundred and forty-six residents surveyed indicated that tourism development is an important issue. Two databases were combined in order to conduct inference data analysis using SPSS 21 statistical software. Depending on the type of variables, t-test and ANOVA were used for the analysis in addition to the descriptive statistics. Findings – Residents point out a clear and strong message for the importance of their inclusion and active involvement in the decision-making processes of sustainable tourism development. Furthermore, our results revealed higher criticism of tourism impacts among those personally involved in tourism (employed or economically dependent on tourism) and among Portorož locals. Originality - We provide theoretical and practical implications of the research, especially suitable for planners of the destination development, who should be cautious about residents’ reaction to tourism at the destination.

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Chapple, Simon A., and Matthew M. Skinner. "Primate tooth crown nomenclature revisited." PeerJ 11 (January 12, 2023): e14523. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.14523.

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Cusp patterning on living and extinct primate molar teeth plays a crucial role in species diagnoses, phylogenetic inference, and the reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the primate clade. These studies rely on a system of nomenclature that can accurately identify and distinguish between the various structures of the crown surface. However, studies at the enamel-dentine junction (EDJ) of some primate taxa have demonstrated a greater degree of cusp variation and expression at the crown surface than current systems of nomenclature allow. In this study, we review the current nomenclature and its applicability across all the major primate clades based on investigations of mandibular crown morphology at the enamel-dentine junction revealed through microtomography. From these observations, we reveal numerous new patterns of lower molar accessory cusp expression in primates. We highlight numerous discrepancies between the expected patterns of variation inferred from the current academic literature, and the new patterns of expected variation seen in this study. Based on the current issues associated with the crown nomenclature, and an incomplete understanding of the precise developmental processes associated with each individual crown feature, we introduce these structures within a conservative, non-homologous naming scheme that focuses on simple location-based categorisations. Until there is a better insight into the developmental and phylogenetic origin of these crown features, these categorisations are the most practical way of addressing these structures. Until then, we also suggest the cautious use of accessory cusps for studies of taxonomy and phylogeny.

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Galt, Ryan E. ""It just goes to kill Ticos": national market regulation and the political ecology of farmers' pesticide use in Costa Rica." Journal of Political Ecology 16, no. 1 (December 1, 2009): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.2458/v16i1.21689.

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This paper addresses pesticide residues on vegetables in developing countries through the specific case of Costa Rica. Pesticide residues are often very high on vegetables in developing countries, generally considerably higher than in industrialized countries. Using a political ecology approach, I combine qualitative and quantitative primary data with secondary data to answer two questions. Why do farmers use pesticides in a manner that results in high levels of residues on vegetables? And, how do markets with unequal regulatory strength affect farmers' pesticides use, and, by inference, the resulting exposure of different populations fed by different market segments? While usually attributed to farmer ignorance, I argue that the pesticide residue problem arises from a triad of causes: higher efficacy of more residual and toxic pesticides, combined with many vegetables' biological trait of consecutive harvests, and a volatile vegetable market upon which farm household reproduction depends. With high input costs and low farm gate prices, farmers in markets with minimal regulation will use more residual and toxic pesticides. Using the idea of a double standard, I show that lax regulation in the open national market means that farmers are less cautious about residues on national market produce than export produce, and that some export farmers use the open national market as an outlet for their produce when they use highly residual pesticides. Uneven regulations between North and South are manifested in farmer's management decisions, and lead to the injustice of higher residues in developing country vegetables.Keywords: pesticide residues; pesticide use; uneven regulation; Costa Rica; developing countries; national market vegetables; export vegetables; environmental injustice

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Sahu, Abhijeet, and Katherine Davis. "Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach." Sensors 22, no. 6 (March 9, 2022): 2100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s22062100.

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False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

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Gaines, Brian J., James H. Kuklinski, and Paul J. Quirk. "The Logic of the Survey Experiment Reexamined." Political Analysis 15, no. 1 (2007): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpl008.

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Scholars of political behavior increasingly embed experimental designs in opinion surveys by randomly assigning respondents alternative versions of questionnaire items. Such experiments have major advantages: they are simple to implement and they dodge some of the difficulties of making inferences from conventional survey data. But survey experiments are no panacea. We identify problems of inference associated with typical uses of survey experiments in political science and highlight a range of difficulties, some of which have straightforward solutions within the survey-experimental approach and some of which can be dealt with only by exercising greater caution in interpreting findings and bringing to bear alternative strategies of research.

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Landis, Michael J., Deren A. R. Eaton, Wendy L. Clement, Brian Park, Elizabeth L. Spriggs, Patrick W. Sweeney, Erika J. Edwards, and Michael J. Donoghue. "Joint Phylogenetic Estimation of Geographic Movements and Biome Shifts during the Global Diversification of Viburnum." Systematic Biology 70, no. 1 (April 8, 2020): 67–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa027.

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Abstract Phylogeny, molecular sequences, fossils, biogeography, and biome occupancy are all lines of evidence that reflect the singular evolutionary history of a clade, but they are most often studied separately, by first inferring a fossil-dated molecular phylogeny, then mapping on ancestral ranges and biomes inferred from extant species. Here we jointly model the evolution of biogeographic ranges, biome affinities, and molecular sequences, while incorporating fossils to estimate a dated phylogeny for all of the 163 extant species of the woody plant clade Viburnum (Adoxaceae) that we currently recognize in our ongoing worldwide monographic treatment of the group. Our analyses indicate that while the major Viburnum lineages evolved in the Eocene, the majority of extant species originated since the Miocene. Viburnum radiated first in Asia, in warm, broad-leaved evergreen (lucidophyllous) forests. Within Asia, we infer several early shifts into more tropical forests, and multiple shifts into forests that experience prolonged freezing. From Asia, we infer two early movements into the New World. These two lineages probably first occupied warm temperate forests and adapted later to spreading cold climates. One of these lineages (Porphyrotinus) occupied cloud forests and moved south through the mountains of the Neotropics. Several other movements into North America took place more recently, facilitated by prior adaptations to freezing in the Old World. We also infer four disjunctions between Asia and Europe: the Tinus lineage is the oldest and probably occupied warm forests when it spread, whereas the other three were more recent and in cold-adapted lineages. These results variously contradict published accounts, especially the view that Viburnum radiated initially in cold forests and, accordingly, maintained vessel elements with scalariform perforations. We explored how the location and biome assignments of fossils affected our inference of ancestral areas and biome states. Our results are sensitive to, but not entirely dependent upon, the inclusion of fossil biome data. It will be critical to take advantage of all available lines of evidence to decipher events in the distant past. The joint estimation approach developed here provides cautious hope even when fossil evidence is limited. [Biogeography; biome; combined evidence; fossil pollen; phylogeny; Viburnum.]

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Ercikan, Kadriye, Wolff-Michael Roth, and Mustafa Asil. "Cautions about Inferences from International Assessments: The Case of PISA 2009." Teachers College Record: The Voice of Scholarship in Education 117, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/016146811511700107.

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Background/Context Two key uses of international assessments of achievement have been (a) comparing country performances for identifying the countries with the best education systems and (b) generating insights about effective policy and practice strategies that are associated with higher learning outcomes. Do country rankings really reflect the quality of education in different countries? What are the fallacies of simply looking to higher performing countries to identify strategies for improving learning in our own countries? Purpose In this article we caution against (a) using country rankings as indicators of better education and (b) using correlates of higher performance in high ranking countries as a way of identifying strategies for improving education in our home countries. We elaborate on these cautions by discussing methodological limitations and by comparing five countries that scored very differently on the reading literacy scale of the 2009 PISA assessment. Population We use PISA 2009 reading assessment for five countries/jurisdictions as examples to elaborate on the problems with interpretation of international assessments: Canada, Shanghai-China, Germany, Turkey, and the US, i.e., countries from three continents that span the spectrum of high, average, and low ranking countries and jurisdictions. Research Design Using the five jurisdiction data in an exemplary fashion, our analyses focus on the interpretation of country rankings and correlates of reading performance within countries. We first examine the profiles of these jurisdictions with respect to high school graduation rates, school climate, student attitudes and disciplinary climate and how these variables are related to reading performance rankings. We then examine the extent to which two predictors of reading performance, reading enjoyment and out of school enrichment activities, may be responsible for higher performance levels. Conclusions This article highlights the importance of establishing comparability of test scores and data across jurisdictions as the first step in making international comparisons based on international assessments such as PISA. When it comes to interpreting jurisdiction rankings in international assessments, researchers need to be aware that there is a variegated and complex picture of the relations between reading achievement ranking and rankings on a number of factors that one might think to be related individually or in combination to quality of education. This makes it highly questionable to use reading score rankings as a criterion for adopting educational policies and practices of other jurisdictions. Furthermore, reading scores vary greatly for different student sub-populations within a jurisdiction – e.g., gender, language, and cultural groups – that are all part of the same education system in a given jurisdiction. Identifying effective strategies for improving education using correlates of achievement in high performing countries should be also done with caution. Our analyses present evidence that two factors, reading enjoyment and out of school enrichment activities, cannot be considered solely responsible for higher performance levels. The analyses suggests that the PISA 2009 results are variegated with regards to attitudes towards reading and out-of-school learning experience, rather than exhibiting clear differences that might explain the different performances among the five jurisdictions.

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Ercikan, Kadriye, Wolff-Michael Roth, and Mustafa Asil. "Cautions about Inferences from International Assessments: The Case of PISA 2009." Teachers College Record: The Voice of Scholarship in Education 117, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/016146811511700102.

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Background/Context Two key uses of international assessments of achievement have been (a) comparing country performances for identifying the countries with the best education systems and (b) generating insights about effective policy and practice strategies that are associated with higher learning outcomes. Do country rankings really reflect the quality of education in different countries? What are the fallacies of simply looking to higher performing countries to identify strategies for improving learning in our own countries? Purpose In this article we caution against (a) using country rankings as indicators of better education and (b) using correlates of higher performance in high ranking countries as a way of identifying strategies for improving education in our home countries. We elaborate on these cautions by discussing methodological limitations and by comparing five countries that scored very differently on the reading literacy scale of the 2009 PISA assessment. Population We use PISA 2009 reading assessment for five countries/jurisdictions as examples to elaborate on the problems with interpretation of international assessments: Canada, Shanghai-China, Germany, Turkey, and the US, i.e., countries from three continents that span the spectrum of high, average, and low ranking countries and jurisdictions. Research Design Using the five jurisdiction data in an exemplary fashion, our analyses focus on the interpretation of country rankings and correlates of reading performance within countries. We first examine the profiles of these jurisdictions with respect to high school graduation rates, school climate, student attitudes and disciplinary climate and how these variables are related to reading performance rankings. We then examine the extent to which two predictors of reading performance, reading enjoyment and out of school enrichment activities, may be responsible for higher performance levels. Conclusions This article highlights the importance of establishing comparability of test scores and data across jurisdictions as the first step in making international comparisons based on international assessments such as PISA. When it comes to interpreting jurisdiction rankings in international assessments, researchers need to be aware that there is a variegated and complex picture of the relations between reading achievement ranking and rankings on a number of factors that one might think to be related individually or in combination to quality of education. This makes it highly questionable to use reading score rankings as a criterion for adopting educational policies and practices of other jurisdictions. Furthermore, reading scores vary greatly for different student sub-populations within a jurisdiction – e.g., gender, language, and cultural groups – that are all part of the same education system in a given jurisdiction. Identifying effective strategies for improving education using correlates of achievement in high performing countries should be also done with caution. Our analyses present evidence that two factors, reading enjoyment and out of school enrichment activities, cannot be considered solely responsible for higher performance levels. The analyses suggests that the PISA 2009 results are variegated with regards to attitudes towards reading and out-of-school learning experience, rather than exhibiting clear differences that might explain the different performances among the five jurisdictions.

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Rich-Edwards, Janet W., Ursula B. Kaiser, Grace L. Chen, JoAnn E. Manson, and Jill M. Goldstein. "Sex and Gender Differences Research Design for Basic, Clinical, and Population Studies: Essentials for Investigators." Endocrine Reviews 39, no. 4 (April 12, 2018): 424–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1210/er.2017-00246.

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Abstract A sex- and gender-informed perspective increases rigor, promotes discovery, and expands the relevance of biomedical research. In the current era of accountability to present data for males and females, thoughtful and deliberate methodology can improve study design and inference in sex and gender differences research. We address issues of motivation, subject selection, sample size, data collection, analysis, and interpretation, considering implications for basic, clinical, and population research. In particular, we focus on methods to test sex/gender differences as effect modification or interaction, and discuss why some inferences from sex-stratified data should be viewed with caution. Without careful methodology, the pursuit of sex difference research, despite a mandate from funding agencies, will result in a literature of contradiction. However, given the historic lack of attention to sex differences, the absence of evidence for sex differences is not necessarily evidence of the absence of sex differences. Thoughtfully conceived and conducted sex and gender differences research is needed to drive scientific and therapeutic discovery for all sexes and genders.

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Bandyopadhyay, Subir. "Meta-analysis of Advertising Elasticity Estimates: How to Correct for the Sampling Error Bias." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 23, no. 2 (April 1998): 29–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090919980205.

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Meta-analysis is a powerful statistical technique that allows social scientists to cumulate research findings across studies. Marketing researchers have used meta-analysis to measure the effectiveness of marketing mix strategies⁄ e.g., advertising, pricing, and promotion. Typically, researchers determine an average elasticity as a measure of the strategy to influence sales, and try to demonstrate causal relationship between the elasticity and some moderator variables. However, extreme caution should be exercised before making any causal inference from meta-analytic results. For example, the variance of an elasticity may be biased due to the sampling error in each estimate. Hence, the sampling error variance must be measured and accounted for before attempting to unravel any causal relationship between the elasticity and moderator variables. In this study by Bandyopadhyay⁄ a meta-analysis of advertising elasticity is done to demonstrate how to correct for the sampling error variance and measure the effect of moderator variables on elasticities. The results, according to the author, can help brand managers make useful inferences about the overall advertising effectiveness.

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Chen, Qingyu, Alex Rankine, Yifan Peng, Elaheh Aghaarabi, and Zhiyong Lu. "Benchmarking Effectiveness and Efficiency of Deep Learning Models for Semantic Textual Similarity in the Clinical Domain: Validation Study." JMIR Medical Informatics 9, no. 12 (December 30, 2021): e27386. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/27386.

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Background Semantic textual similarity (STS) measures the degree of relatedness between sentence pairs. The Open Health Natural Language Processing (OHNLP) Consortium released an expertly annotated STS data set and called for the National Natural Language Processing Clinical Challenges. This work describes our entry, an ensemble model that leverages a range of deep learning (DL) models. Our team from the National Library of Medicine obtained a Pearson correlation of 0.8967 in an official test set during 2019 National Natural Language Processing Clinical Challenges/Open Health Natural Language Processing shared task and achieved a second rank. Objective Although our models strongly correlate with manual annotations, annotator-level correlation was only moderate (weighted Cohen κ=0.60). We are cautious of the potential use of DL models in production systems and argue that it is more critical to evaluate the models in-depth, especially those with extremely high correlations. In this study, we benchmark the effectiveness and efficiency of top-ranked DL models. We quantify their robustness and inference times to validate their usefulness in real-time applications. Methods We benchmarked five DL models, which are the top-ranked systems for STS tasks: Convolutional Neural Network, BioSentVec, BioBERT, BlueBERT, and ClinicalBERT. We evaluated a random forest model as an additional baseline. For each model, we repeated the experiment 10 times, using the official training and testing sets. We reported 95% CI of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test on the average Pearson correlation (official evaluation metric) and running time. We further evaluated Spearman correlation, R², and mean squared error as additional measures. Results Using only the official training set, all models obtained highly effective results. BioSentVec and BioBERT achieved the highest average Pearson correlations (0.8497 and 0.8481, respectively). BioSentVec also had the highest results in 3 of 4 effectiveness measures, followed by BioBERT. However, their robustness to sentence pairs of different similarity levels varies significantly. A particular observation is that BERT models made the most errors (a mean squared error of over 2.5) on highly similar sentence pairs. They cannot capture highly similar sentence pairs effectively when they have different negation terms or word orders. In addition, time efficiency is dramatically different from the effectiveness results. On average, the BERT models were approximately 20 times and 50 times slower than the Convolutional Neural Network and BioSentVec models, respectively. This results in challenges for real-time applications. Conclusions Despite the excitement of further improving Pearson correlations in this data set, our results highlight that evaluations of the effectiveness and efficiency of STS models are critical. In future, we suggest more evaluations on the generalization capability and user-level testing of the models. We call for community efforts to create more biomedical and clinical STS data sets from different perspectives to reflect the multifaceted notion of sentence-relatedness.

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Alwan, Sura, Elizabeth A. Conover, Lorrie Harris-Sagaribay, Steven H. Lamm, Sharon V. Lavigne, Shari I. Lusskin, Sarah G. Obican, Alfred N. Romeo, Anthony R. Scialli, and Katherine L. Wisner. "Paracetamol use in pregnancy — caution over causal inference from available data." Nature Reviews Endocrinology 18, no. 3 (December 14, 2021): 190. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41574-021-00606-x.

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Schaid, Daniel J., Shannon K. McDonnell, Liang Wang, Julie M. Cunningham, and Stephen N. Thibodeau. "Caution on Pedigree Haplotype Inference with Software That Assumes Linkage Equilibrium." American Journal of Human Genetics 71, no. 4 (October 2002): 992–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/342666.

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Auerbach, Michael, and Robert C. Kane. "Caution in making inferences from FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting System." American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy 69, no. 11 (June 1, 2012): 922–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.2146/ajhp120138.

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Tüdős, Éva, Bálint Mészáros, András Fiser, and István Simon. "A word of caution about biological inference - Revisiting cysteine covalent state predictions." FEBS Open Bio 4, no. 1 (January 1, 2014): 310–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fob.2014.03.003.

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Vidmar, Neil. "Making inferences about jury behavior from jury verdict statistics: Cautions about the Lorelei's Lied." Law and Human Behavior 18, no. 6 (December 1994): 599–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01499327.

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Clavijo Michelangeli, José A., Thomas R. Sinclair, and Nikolay Bliznyuk. "Using an Arrhenius-type function to describe temperature response of plant developmental processes: inference and cautions." New Phytologist 210, no. 2 (January 25, 2016): 377–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.13812.

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González-Suárez, M., M. D'Amico, and M. Mulero-Pázmány. "Advancing road ecology in Africa with robust analyses and cautious inferences: a response to Jacksonet al. (2017)." Journal of Zoology 302, no. 4 (June 21, 2017): 224–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jzo.12484.

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Roth, Jonathan. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends." American Economic Review: Insights 4, no. 3 (September 1, 2022): 305–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210236.

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This paper discusses two important limitations of the common practice of testing for preexisting differences in trends (“ pre-trends”) when using difference-in-differences and related methods. First, conventional pre-trends tests may have low power. Second, conditioning the analysis on the result of a pretest can distort estimation and inference, potentially exacerbating the bias of point estimates and under-coverage of confidence intervals. I analyze these issues both in theory and in simulations calibrated to a survey of recent papers in leading economics journals, which suggest that these limitations are important in practice. I conclude with practical recommendations for mitigating these issues. (JEL A14, C23, C51)

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Kalva, Ilona, and Dmitry Shyryaev. "BEHAVIOR IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS, AND PRONE TO RISK OR CAUTION." Problems of Psychology in the 21st Century 3, no. 1 (June 10, 2012): 26–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.33225/ppc/12.03.26.

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The purpose of this study was to appreciate the possibility to use the method of study of probabilistic forecasting for staff selection needs. Indicators of probabilistic forecasting, prone to risk were studied in a stochastic environment. This is a pilot study, because a well known technique: Bayesian logic applied to decision making with probability inference - using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events - in the new modification was used. The novelty lies in the fact that, besides the opportunity to study the prognostic abilities of the brain in a situation of uncertainty, was made an attempt to study the impact on the forecasting process of emotions associated with possible monetary gain or loss. Differences in effectiveness and dynamics of probabilistic activity were revealed in persons with differing extent of gain and temperament type. Key words: individual differences, probability learning risky behavior, type of temperament.

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Gass, Carlton S., Philip C. Burda, Timothy W. Starkey, and Florentino Dominguez. "MMPI interpretation of psychiatric inpatients: Caution in making inferences about concentration and memory." Journal of Clinical Psychology 48, no. 4 (July 1992): 493–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1097-4679(199207)48:4<493::aid-jclp2270480409>3.0.co;2-p.

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Smith, Philip L., and Simon D. Lilburn. "Vision for the blind: visual psychophysics and blinded inference for decision models." Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 27, no. 5 (June 8, 2020): 882–910. http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-020-01742-7.

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Abstract Evidence accumulation models like the diffusion model are increasingly used by researchers to identify the contributions of sensory and decisional factors to the speed and accuracy of decision-making. Drift rates, decision criteria, and nondecision times estimated from such models provide meaningful estimates of the quality of evidence in the stimulus, the bias and caution in the decision process, and the duration of nondecision processes. Recently, Dutilh et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 26, 1051–1069, 2019) carried out a large-scale, blinded validation study of decision models using the random dot motion (RDM) task. They found that the parameters of the diffusion model were generally well recovered, but there was a pervasive failure of selective influence, such that manipulations of evidence quality, decision bias, and caution also affected estimated nondecision times. This failure casts doubt on the psychometric validity of such estimates. Here we argue that the RDM task has unusual perceptual characteristics that may be better described by a model in which drift and diffusion rates increase over time rather than turn on abruptly. We reanalyze the Dutilh et al. data using models with abrupt and continuous-onset drift and diffusion rates and find that the continuous-onset model provides a better overall fit and more meaningful parameter estimates, which accord with the known psychophysical properties of the RDM task. We argue that further selective influence studies that fail to take into account the visual properties of the evidence entering the decision process are likely to be unproductive.

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Fritts, David C. "Errant inferences of gravity wave momentum and heat fluxes using airglow and lidar instrumentation: Corrections and cautions." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 105, no. D17 (September 1, 2000): 22355–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900312.

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Birzu, Gabriel, Oskar Hallatschek, and Kirill S. Korolev. "Genealogical structure changes as range expansions transition from pushed to pulled." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 34 (August 19, 2021): e2026746118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026746118.

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Range expansions accelerate evolution through multiple mechanisms, including gene surfing and genetic drift. The inference and control of these evolutionary processes ultimately rely on the information contained in genealogical trees. Currently, there are two opposing views on how range expansions shape genealogies. In invasion biology, expansions are typically approximated by a series of population bottlenecks producing genealogies with only pairwise mergers between lineages—a process known as the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, traveling wave models predict a coalescent with multiple mergers, known as the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent. Here, we unify these two approaches and show that expansions can generate an entire spectrum of coalescent topologies. Specifically, we show that tree topology is controlled by growth dynamics at the front and exhibits large differences between pulled and pushed expansions. These differences are explained by the fluctuations in the total number of descendants left by the early founders. High growth cooperativity leads to a narrow distribution of reproductive values and the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, low growth cooperativity results in a broad distribution, whose exponent controls the merger sizes in the genealogies. These broad distribution and non-Kingman tree topologies emerge due to the fluctuations in the front shape and position and do not occur in quasi-deterministic simulations. Overall, our results show that range expansions provide a robust mechanism for generating different types of multiple mergers, which could be similar to those observed in populations with strong selection or high fecundity. Thus, caution should be exercised in making inferences about the origin of non-Kingman genealogies.

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HOFFMAN, HOWARD J., JEHU C. HUNGER, EILEEN G. HASSELMEYER, KARLA DAMUS, JEAN PAKTER, DONALD R. PETERSON, and GERALD VAN BELLE. "What Is `Significant' and DTP Reactions." Pediatrics 81, no. 6 (June 1, 1988): 913. http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.81.6.913.

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In Reply.— The two letters received in response to our article1 express a diversity of opinion regarding the inferences to be drawn from the findings regarding SIDS and DTP reported from the NICHD SIDS Cooperative Epidemiological Study. In the first instance, Dr Eden suggests that we were too cautious in our concluding statement that: "DTP immunization does not appear to be a significant factor in the occurrence of SIDS." The critical point to be made is that in any study, regardless of the number of subjects included and the care taken in study design and implementation, the most that can be claimed is a statistical result that admits a small probability of exception.

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Jarosek, Stephanie L., and Beth A. Virnig. "Inference from Imprecisely Measured Exposures: Caution Is Needed When Using Health Insurance Data for Clinical Research." Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery 104, no. 9 (May 4, 2022): e39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2106/jbjs.22.00118.

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Peddada, Shyamal D., and Joseph K. Haseman. "Analysis of Nonlinear Regression Models: A Cautionary Note." Dose-Response 3, no. 3 (May 1, 2005): dose—response.0. http://dx.doi.org/10.2203/dose-response.003.03.005.

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Regression models are routinely used in many applied sciences for describing the relationship between a response variable and an independent variable. Statistical inferences on the regression parameters are often performed using the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). In the case of nonlinear models the standard errors of MLE are often obtained by linearizing the nonlinear function around the true parameter and by appealing to large sample theory. In this article we demonstrate, through computer simulations, that the resulting asymptotic Wald confidence intervals cannot be trusted to achieve the desired confidence levels. Sometimes they could underestimate the true nominal level and are thus liberal. Hence one needs to be cautious in using the usual linearized standard errors of MLE and the associated confidence intervals.

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Bickel, David R. "Controlling the degree of caution in statistical inference with the Bayesian and frequentist approaches as opposite extremes." Electronic Journal of Statistics 6 (2012): 686–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-ejs689.

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Oaks, Jamie R., Jeet Sukumaran, Jacob A. Esselstyn, Charles W. Linkem, Cameron D. Siler, Mark T. Holder, and Rafe M. Brown. "EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE-DRIVEN DIVERSIFICATION? A CAUTION FOR INTERPRETING ABC INFERENCES OF SIMULTANEOUS HISTORICAL EVENTS." Evolution 67, no. 4 (December 11, 2012): 991–1010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01840.x.

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Wenk, R. E., T. Houtz, M. Brooks, and F. A. Chiafari. "How Frequent Is Heteropaternal Superfecundation?" Acta geneticae medicae et gemellologiae: twin research 41, no. 1 (January 1992): 43–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000156600000249x.

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AbstractA newly discovered case of heteropaternal superfecundation (HS) is reported. Three HS cases were found in a parentage test database of 39,000 records. The frequency of HS among dizygotic twins whose parents were involved in paternity suits is 2.4%. Although the study population appears similar to the general population with respect to twinning data, inferences about the frequency of HS in other populations should be drawn with caution.

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Krishan, Kewal, and Tanuj Kanchan. "Aerosol and surface persistence: Novel SARS-CoV-2 versus other coronaviruses." Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 14, no. 07 (July 31, 2020): 748–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.3855/jidc.12887.

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The present communication emphasizes on a very pertinent issue of aerosol transmission, persistence and surface viability of novel SARS-CoV-2. Studies in this regard have been conducted on previously known human coronaviruses, and similarities have been drawn for novel SARS-CoV-2. The communication highlights that caution should be excercised while drawing inferences regarding the persistence and viability of the novel SARS-CoV-2 based on the knowledge of already known human coronaviruses.

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Doherty, John D. H. "Height of Women, Twinning and Breast Cancer: Epidemiological Evidence of a Relationship." Acta geneticae medicae et gemellologiae: twin research 37, no. 3-4 (October 1988): 263–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000156600000386x.

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AbstractA comparison was made of the stature of women, twinning rates, and breast cancer mortality for 32 countries. As height increased, so did twinning and breast cancer mortality (P < 0.005). Dizygotic twinning and breast cancer increased sharply with the mean height of the female population. With due caution in drawing causal inferences when uncontrolled confounding variables are present, it is suggested that these findings are an evolutionary consequence of the high mortality found in twin pregnancy.

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Kang, Wei, and Sergio J. Rey. "Inference for Income Mobility Measures in the Presence of Spatial Dependence." International Regional Science Review 43, no. 1-2 (February 6, 2019): 10–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0160017619826291.

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Income mobility measures provide convenient and concise ways to reveal the dynamic nature of regional income distributions. Statistical inference about these measures is important especially when it comes to a comparison of two regional income systems. Although the analytical sampling distributions of relevant estimators and test statistics have been asymptotically derived, their properties in small sample settings and in the presence of contemporaneous spatial dependence within a regional income system are underexplored. We approach these issues via a series of Monte Carlo experiments that require the proposal of a novel data generating process capable of generating spatially dependent time series given a transition probability matrix and a specified level of spatial dependence. Results suggest that when sample size is small, the mobility estimator is biased while spatial dependence inflates its asymptotic variance, raising the Type I error rate for a one-sample test. For the two-sample test of the difference in mobility between two regional economic systems, the size tends to become increasingly upward biased with stronger spatial dependence in either income system, which indicates that conclusions about differences in mobility between two different regional systems need to be drawn with caution as the presence of spatial dependence can lead to false positives. In light of this, we suggest adjustments for the critical values of relevant test statistics.

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Miller, Laurence. "Is Alexithymia a Disconnection Syndrome? A Neuropsychological Perspective." International Journal of Psychiatry in Medicine 16, no. 3 (September 1987): 199–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/dae0-ewpx-r7d6-lfny.

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Efforts to relate the syndrome of alexithymia to cerebral dysfunction have generally taken the form of comparing the literal, concretistic, nonimaginative and affect-impoverished cognitive and communicative style of alexithymic patients to similar types of behavior seen in individuals with right-hemisphere damage or commissural disconnection. It is argued that the formulation of a neuropsychological typology of psychiatric syndromes like alexithymia has much heuristic merit as long as appropriate theoretical and methodological caution is exercised in drawing inferences about patterns of cerebral organization in nonneurological populations.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Cautious inference'

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