Academic literature on the topic 'Causality link'
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Journal articles on the topic "Causality link"
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Đidelija, Irma. "The Causal Link Between Savings and Economic Growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 16, no. 2 (2021): 114–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2021-0018.
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Abstract The causal link between savings and economic growth has been extensively discussed in the economic growth and development literature, but the question of the direction of this link has not yet been clearly defined. The aim of this paper is to determine the direction and intensity of savings causality (components of private savings) and economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Granger’s causality test, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, was applied to test for causality between savings and economic growth. The results of Granger’s causality test indicated that there is no causal link between components of private savings with economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was found that among the variables there is cointegration, but not causality, which means that the variables have a common stochastic trend. This fully corresponds to the characteristics of the Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economy.
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Gilbertson, Michael, and R. Stephen Schneider. "Causality: The Missing Link Between Science and Policy." Journal of Great Lakes Research 19, no. 4 (1993): 720–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0380-1330(93)71260-5.
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Gemsenjaeger, Ernst. "Causality Link between Hashimoto Thyroiditis and Thyroid Cancer?" Journal of the American College of Surgeons 205, no. 4 (2007): e1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2007.07.019.
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Velikanov, S. V. "THE STRUCTURE OF THE CAUSE AND EFFECT LINK IN THE CAUSALITY THEORY OF CRIMINALISTICS." Theory and Practice of Forensic Science and Criminalistics 15 (November 30, 2016): 73–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.32353/khrife.2015.08.
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The article deals with the issues of the cause and effect link structure in the causality theory of criminalistics. It identifies similarity levels for causality as well as their hierarchy. Within the context of subject’s instrumental causality the link structure is represented by related events «the subject’s decision», «the subject’s action», «the use of the means», «the formation of the trace». Within the context of the subject causality without instruments the article discusses the links between the events «the subject’s decision» - «the subject’s actions» - «the formation of the trace». The context of object causality links the events «the object’s actions» and «the formation of the trace». The link «the subject’s decision» - «the subject’s actions» in subject causality is described as a mental phenomenon and with this regard the article provides arguments in favor of compatibility of the subject’s free will and determinism. The other links that are discussed in the article are of deterministic nature, as they take place while interacting with material objects and are governed by natural laws. The article determines the areas and branches of criminalistics where these contexts of cause and effect links are the most common.
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Chowdhury, Farzana Yesmin, and Sudip Dey. "CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN EXPORT, IMPORT, REMITTANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH." ASIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 4, no. 3 (2022): 331–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.47509/ajef.2022.v04i03.05.
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Given the importance of the economic indicators on the economic growth in Bangladesh, this paper examines the shortrun and long run causality between remittance, imports, exports and GDP growth of Bangladesh using the data over the liberalized period 1976-2016. Applying the Johansen cointegration and elasticity concept, this study finds that variables are cointegrated as well a long run nexus between exports, imports, remittances and GDP growth in Bangladesh. Besides, the Granger Causality test in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) framework, this study finds unidirectional causality from import to growth in Bangladesh. The hardly surprising result, remittance does not show any feedback effect/causality in both the short run and long run. The possible interpretation may be that remittances mainly benefit the individual receivers. The finding also explores that exports, imports and remittances endorse each other in the short run
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Chvosteková, Martina, Jozef Jakubík, and Anna Krakovská. "Granger Causality on forward and Reversed Time Series." Entropy 23, no. 4 (2021): 409. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23040409.
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In this study, the information flow time arrow is investigated for stochastic data defined by vector autoregressive models. The time series are analyzed forward and backward by different Granger causality detection methods. Besides the normal distribution, which is usually required for the validity of Granger causality analysis, several other distributions of predictive errors are considered. A clear effect of a change in the order of cause and effect on the time-reversed series of unidirectionally connected variables was detected with standard Granger causality test (GC), when the product of the connection strength and the ratio of the predictive errors of the driver and the recipient was below a certain level, otherwise bidirectional causal connection was detected. On the other hand, opposite causal link was detected unconditionally by the methods based on the time reversal testing, but they were not able to detect correct bidirectional connection. The usefulness of the backward analysis is manifested in cases where falsely detected unidirectional connections can be rejected by applying the result obtained after the time reversal, and in cases of uncorrelated causally independent variables, where the absence of a causal link detected by GC on the original series should be confirmed on the time-reversed series.
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Iqbal, Azhar, and Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach." Pakistan Development Review 42, no. 4II (2003): 987–1014. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v42i4iipp.987-1014.
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The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data, Jusoh (1986) for Malaysia, Zubaidi, et al. (1996) for Malaysia, Biswas and Saunders (1998) for India, and Bengali, et al. (1999) for Pakistan]. Other studies have tested the above on a number of countries, for example Krol and Ohanian (1990) used the data for Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.K. Hayo (1999) using data from 14 European Union (EU) countries plus Canada, Japan, and the United States. More recently Hafer and Kutan (2002) used a sample of 20 industrialised and developing countries. This paper contributes to this later strand of the literature, which it extends in three directions. First, it employed a newly developed panel cointegration technique [Larsson, et al. (2001)], to examine the long-run relationship between money and income. Second, the study performs panel causality test, recently developed by Hurlin and Venet (2001), to explore the direction of causality between the said variables. Third, the important contribution of the present study is to test whether relationship between money and income is homogeneous or heterogeneous across countries.
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Jakubík, Jozef, Mary Phuong, Martina Chvosteková, and Anna Krakovská. "Against the Flow of Time with Multi-Output Models." Measurement Science Review 23, no. 4 (2023): 175–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/msr-2023-0023.
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Abstract Recent work has paid close attention to the first principle of Granger causality, according to which cause precedes effect. In this context, the question may arise whether the detected direction of causality also reverses after the time reversal of unidirectionally coupled data. Recently, it has been shown that for unidirectionally causally connected autoregressive (AR) processes X → Y, after time reversal of data, the opposite causal direction Y → X is indeed detected, although typically as part of the bidirectional X ↔ Y link. As we argue here, the answer is different when the measured data are not from AR processes but from linked deterministic systems. When the goal is the usual forward data analysis, cross-mapping-like approaches correctly detect X → Y, while Granger causality-like approaches, which should not be used for deterministic time series, detect causal independence X ⫫ Y . The results of backward causal analysis depend on the predictability of the reversed data. Unlike AR processes, observables from deterministic dynamical systems, even complex nonlinear ones, can be predicted well forward, while backward predictions can be difficult (notably when the time reversal of a function leads to one-to-many relations). To address this problem, we propose an approach based on models that provide multiple candidate predictions for the target, combined with a loss function that consideres only the best candidate. The resulting good forward and backward predictability supports the view that unidirectionally causally linked deterministic dynamical systems X → Y can be expected to detect the same link both before and after time reversal.
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Allen, Samantha, and Jacob H. Swenberg. "Do link polynomials detect causality in globally hyperbolic spacetimes?" Journal of Mathematical Physics 62, no. 3 (2021): 032503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0040956.
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Wang, Huiqiang. "The causality link between political risk and stock prices." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, no. 3 (2019): 338–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2018-0106.
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Purpose Prior studies have paid close attention to the impact of political risk on financial markets. Following this strand of literature, this paper aims to focus on the causality link between political shocks and their impacts on emerging stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper highlights an innovative counterfactual model for political risk assessment. Based on a natural experiment, i.e. the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996, this study utilizes one data-driven approach, e.g. the synthetic control methods (SCMs), to estimate causal impact of this political shock on Taiwan’s stock market. Findings Major findings in this study are consistent with existing literature on the price of political risk, e.g. political uncertainty commands a risk premium. The SCM estimations suggest that Taiwan’s stock prices dramatically underperformed its newly industrialized peers and other developed markets during the crisis. The SCM results are statistically significant and robust to various cross-validation tests. Research limitations/implications Findings in this study indicate that political risks could generate enormous impacts on emerging financial markets. In particular, political uncertainty following new geopolitical dynamics requires proper identification and assessment. Originality/value To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first rigorous counterfactual study to the causality relationship between political uncertainty and stock prices in emerging markets. This paper is distinct from previous studies in applying a data-driven approach to combine the features of learning from others (cross-sectional) and learning from the past (time series).
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Causality link"
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Carvalho, João Filipe Dias de. "On the debt-equity link : evidence from european markets." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8799.
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Mestrado em Finanças<br>Com este estudo, pretendeu-se responder à seguinte questão: "Existe alguma relação entre os mercados de acções e obrigações?". Dado que a maioria da literatura utiliza amostras de empresas dos E.U.A., o contributo dado para o tema foi aumentado pelo facto de ter sido introduzida uma amostra 100% europeia, dando uma perspectiva de um mercado diferente dos previamente estudados. A amostra compreende tanto as emissões de acções como as de obrigações das empresas constituintes do índice EURO STOXX 50, bem como o próprio índice e taxas de juro sem risco de curto e longo prazo. Tendo efectuado testes de causalidade de Granger por forma a aferir se existe uma relação causal inquestionável entre ambos os mercados em estudo.<br>With this thesis, we tried to answer the following question: "Is there any relationship between equity and debt markets?". Since most of the literature uses samples of U.S. firms, we enhanced our contribute to this subject by introducing a 100% european sample, thus providing insight for a dierent market than untill now. The sample to be used compreends the constituent firms of the EURO STOXX 50 Index, both its shares and bonds and also the index itself and short and long term riskless bonds. We performed also formal Granger causality tests in order to assess if there is an inquestionable lead-lag relationship between both markets in study.
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Merletti, Emilie. "Dommage, fait générateur, lien de causalité : Essai sur les conditions de la responsabilité civile." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019CERG0993.
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L’histoire des mots est souvent liée à l’histoire des Hommes ; à moins que ce ne soit l’inverse. Si la réparation n’avait pas réussi à s’émanciper de la sanction, le concept de responsabilité civile ne serait jamais né. Né par la réparation et pour la réparation, il lui a toujours été associé. Encore aujourd’hui, de nombreux auteurs tiennent ces deux notions pour synonymes . Pourtant, la responsabilité civile a muri et elle s’est montrée apte à remplir d’autres fonctions que la réparation des dommages causés ; des fonctions d’abord accessoires – normative, préventive et punitive –, puis des fonctions alternatives – comme la cessation de l’illicite et le paiement. A priori le tryptique – dommage, fait générateur, lien de causalité –, qui conditionne sa mise en jeu, était adapté à sa fonction de réparation ; il l’est peut être moins à ses nouvelles fonctions. C’est ce que nous tenterons d’éprouver dans une première partie.Une fois les frontières du tryptique – dommage, fait générateur, lien de causalité –clairement dessinées, nous nous intéresserons à son fonctionnement. La capacité qu’a une seule et même institution – la responsabilité civile – à remplir des fonctions si différentes que la réparation, la punition, la cessation de l’illicite, ou encore le paiement, interpelle nécessairement. Les relations existant entre les conditions de la responsabilité pourraient l’expliquer. C’est ce que nous tenterons de démontrer dans une seconde partie<br>The history of words is often linked to the history of men; unless it's the other way around. If the remedy failed to break free of the penalty, the concept of civil liability would never be born. Born by repair and for repair, it has always been associated with it. Even today, many authors take these two notions for synonyms. However, civil liability has matured and it has shown itself capable of performing other functions than repairing the damage caused; functions first ancillary - normative, preventive and punitive - and then alternative functions - such as cessation of illicit and payment. A priori, the triptych - a damage, a generative event, a causal link - which conditions is putting into play, was adapted to its reparation function; he may be less so with his new duties. This is what we will try to test in the first part.Once the borders of the triptych - damage, generating fact, causal link - clearly drawn, we will focus on its operation. The ability of one and the same institution - civil liability - to perform functions so different that reparation, punishment, cessation of the wrongful act, or even payment, is necessary necessary. The relations existing between the conditions of the responsibility could explain it. This is what we will try to demonstrate in a second part
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Kim, Minjung. "Does a Causal Link Exist between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Asian NIEs?" Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2004. http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd/view.cgi?ohiou1090265979.
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Persson, Erik K. "What is the link between temperature, carbon dioxide and methane? A multivariate Granger causality analysis based on ice core data from Dome C in Antarctica." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Tillämpad matematik och statistik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-398126.
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Bonnerot, Damien. "La faute de précaution : étude juridique du droit et du discours sur le droit." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lille (2022-....), 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024ULILD009.
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Commise en méconnaissance du principe de précaution, la faute de précaution n’a pas été consacrée au plan juridique et n’a fait l’objet d’aucune étude approfondie en droit public. Il s’agit donc de définir les caractéristiques de la faute de précaution, d’en identifier les variants et les invariants, compte tenu du principe de précaution qui, constitutif d’un standard, d’une norme à valeur constitutionnelle, législative, coutumière, à l’origine de multiples obligations, dispose de différentes sources juridiques, écrites et non-écrites, comme du droit de la responsabilité des autorités publiques, principalement jurisprudentiel. Les caractéristiques et la réception de la faute de précaution révèlent que celle-ci procède de la volonté souveraine de protéger l’environnement ou la santé. Ce qui détermine le sens et les portées de la faute de précaution, en fonction de ses conséquences, comme des questions inhérentes à l’imputabilité d’un préjudice. À l’instar de la séparation des pouvoirs et des compétences, le risque existant à titre juridique mais entaché d’incertitude scientifique quant à sa réalité et sa portée, est une notion centrale du droit de la responsabilité pour faute de précaution qui conduit à des utilisations dialectiques ou argumentatives du principe de précaution. La présente thèse propose une analyse critique du droit de la responsabilité pour faute de précaution, à partir de l’état actuel des connaissances scientifiques et doctrinales<br>Committed in disregard of the precautionary principle, the fault of precaution has not been enshrined in legal terms and has not been the subject of any in-depth study in public law. It is therefore a question of defining the characteristics of the precautionary fault, to identify the variants and invariants, taking into account the precautionary principle which, constituent of a standard, of a norm with constitutional, legislative, customary value, at the origin of multiple obligations, has different legal sources, written and unwritten, as the law of liability of public authorities, mainly case law. The characteristics and reception of the precautionary fault reveal that it comes from the sovereign will to protect the environment or health. What determines the meaning and scope of the fault of precaution in the light of its consequences, its legal and moral implications as questions inherent to the attributability of harm. Like the separation of powers, the existing legal risk tainted with scientific uncertainty as to its reality and scope, is a central notion of the law of liability which leads to rhetorical uses of the precautionary principle. This thesis provides a critical analysis of liability law for fault of precaution, based on the current state of scientific and doctrinal knowledge
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Portolano, Diane. "Essai d'une théorie générale de la provocation." Thesis, Aix-Marseille 3, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011AIX32046.
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Fréquente en droit pénal, jamais entreprise en droit civil ou en droit administratif, cette étude révèle l’abondante appréhension juridique de la notion de la provocation. Malgré cette richesse, aucune étude transversale n’a jamais été menée à son propos et cette notion demeure encore indéfinie. Il est pourtant apparu que, non seulement que la conceptualisation de la provocation était rendue souhaitable par son absence d’approche cohérente, mais encore que cette conceptualisation était parfaitement envisageable. A cette fin, une typologie des comportements de provocation, leur nature et leur caractérisation purent être établis. Puis, la dualité de la provocation, résultant de la nécessaire relation d’influence du provocateur sur la personne provoquée, commanda l’étude des manifestations de la provocation sur cette dernière. Il apparut, à cet égard, que la subjectivité du concept de provocation se confrontait fréquemment à l’objectivation croissante des responsabilités et expliquait, au moins en partie, le recul de son appréhension légale, notamment en droit pénal. Dès lors, cette conceptualisation s’est heurtée à de sérieuses difficultés, tant définitionnelles que conceptuelles, de notions afférentes à la provocation et inhérentes à la responsabilité, telles que la culpabilité, la volonté, l’intention, l’imputabilité ou encore la causalité et l’imputation. Sans prétendre à un renouvellement de la théorie de la responsabilité, des clarifications de ces notions se sont avérées un préalable nécessaire au travail de conceptualisation de la provocation et à son application pratique. Enfin, au constat d’une nature éminemment subjective de la provocation, s’est naturellement imposé celui d’un régime spécifique. Le régime de la provocation, à l’instar de sa nature, se révèle dual : il engage ou atténue la responsabilité selon que la personne envisagée est provoquée ou provocateur. Spécifique, dual et subjectif, le régime juridique de la provocation en révèlera l’ampleur et lui assurera une pleine effectivité<br>Common in criminal law, never undertaken in civil law or in administrative law, this research shows the wide legal approach of the notion of provocation. Despite this richness, no transverse study has never been done about it. Moreover, this notion remains undefined. Nevertheless, not only the conceptualisation of provocation has been necessary, owing to the absence of coherence regarding its approach, but this conceptualisation was also not perfectly conceivable.To that purpose, the typology of provocation’s behaviours, its nature and characterisation were able to be set up. Then, the duality of provocation, which is the result of the essential influence’s relation of the provoker on the provoked person, required studying expressions of the provocation on the one who is incited. Regarding this matter, it seemed the subjectivity of the concept of provocation often faced with the increasing objectivation of liabilities and explained, at least partially, the decline of its legal approach, in particular in criminal law. Therefore, the conceptualisation of the provocation was confronted to serious difficulties, regarding both the definition and the concept, of notions relating to provocation and inherent in the legal responsibility, such as culpability, will, intention, accountability or the causal link and imputation as well. Without expecting a total renewal of the notions belonging to the theory of liability, a clarification of these ones seems to be a necessary precondition for the conceptualisation of provocation and its practical application. Eventually, to the finding of an eminently subjective nature of provocation, must be added the one of a special legal regime. The regime of provocation, following the example of its nature, turns out to be dual: it involves or reduces the legal responsibility depending on the person charged is the provoked or the provoker. Special, dual and subjective, the legal regime of the provocation will point out its extent and assure it of real efficiency
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Germain, Marion. "The links between dispersal and individual fitness : correlation or causality ? : exploring mechanisms using correlative and experimental approaches in a passerine bird species, the collared flycatcher." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Zooekologi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-254731.
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Dispersal is commonly defined as the movement of an individual from its natal orprevious breeding site to a new breeding site. Because dispersal involves movements ofindividuals and genes among populations, it is recognized as a key life history trait withstrong effects on many ecological and evolutionary processes such as populationdynamics and genetics but also species spatial distribution or response to brutalenvironmental variations induced by human activities. Yet, the consequences of dispersalin terms of individual fitness remain poorly understood despite their crucial importance inthe understanding of the evolution of dispersal. The aim of this PhD is to get betterinsights in the fitness consequences of dispersal using both correlative and experimentalapproaches at different scales, i.e. annual and lifetime scales, in a wild patchy populationof migratory passerine bird, the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). Using a long-termdata set encompasses more than 20 years of data, differences between dispersing andphilopatric individuals were demonstrated both at a lifetime and annual scale. The resultsshowed strong phenotypic- and condition-dependent effects of dispersal and highlightthat the balance between the costs and benefits of dispersal is likely to be the result ofsubtle interactions between environmental factors and individuals’ phenotype. Moreover,the forced dispersal experiment demonstrated that dispersal might entail costs link tosettlement in a new habitat, which only some individuals may overcome. Nevertheless,the absence of difference in major fitness related decisions after settlement suggests thatdispersal is mostly adaptive for individuals overcome such costs.Key words: dispersal, fitness, collared flycatcher, dispersal costs and benefits,experimental approach, correlative approach, passerine.<br><p>Joint PhD Uppsala, Lyon</p>
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Foteinopoulou, Stavroula. "Electromagnetic Wave Propagation in Two-Dimensional Photonic Crystals." Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Science ; distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2003. http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/822058-9BqHHS/native/.
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Thesis (Ph.D.); Submitted to Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (US); 12 Dec 2003.<br>Published through the Information Bridge: DOE Scientific and Technical Information. "IS-T 2048" Stavroula Foteinopoulou. 12/12/2003. Report is also available in paper and microfiche from NTIS.
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Al, Mdagho Almokhtar. "La notion de dommage causé par le dumping selon les accords de l'OMC." Thesis, Tours, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOUR1004/document.
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L’objet de cette recherche est d’examiner, selon les règles et la jurisprudence de l’OMC, la définition et le contenu du dommage causé par le dumping à une branche de production de l’industrie nationale. Cela nécessite, d’une part, d’établir les éléments qui entrent en ligne de compte dans le calcul du dommage ainsi que dans la détermination de l’existence de ce dommage, et d’autre part, d’identifier un lien de causalité entre le dommage subi et le dumping. Une fois ces éléments établis, les Membres de l’OMC sont autorisés à recourir à des mesures antidumping dont l’objectif est de neutraliser les effets dommageables du dumping et de rétablir l’équilibre dans le marché local. Par conséquent, dans le souci d’éviter que des mesures abusives soient mises en place, les mesures et leur modalité d’application sont prescrites par les règles de l’OMC. Elles sont au nombre de trois, à savoir les droits antidumping provisoires, les droits définitifs et l’engagement de prix<br>The purpose of this research is to examine, in accordance with WTO rules and case law, the definition and the content of the injury caused to one part of the domestic industry by dumping. This requires the need to establish the elements to be taken into account when determining then calculating the injury, and to identify a causal link between the injury suffered by the domestic industry and dumping. Once these elements have been established, WTO members are allowed to use anti-Dumping measures aimed at cancelling out the damaging effects of dumping and restoring balance in the local market. Therefore, with the view to avoiding abusive measures to be put in place, WTO rules prescribe three measures which are provisional anti-Dumping duties, definitive duties and price undertaking, as well as their conditions for application
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David, Paul. "Le traitement de l'incertitude dans le contentieux des produits de santé défectueux." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015USPCB218.
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Alors que le contentieux des produits de santé n'a jamais été aussi fourni, l'application du régime spécial de responsabilité du fait des produits défectueux issu de la directive européenne du 25 juillet 1985, entraîne l'émergence d'un certain nombre d'incertitudes qui affectent directement le sort des demandes en réparation. Les incertitudes matérielles ont, pour la plupart reçu un traitement efficace par l'action conjuguée de la jurisprudence et du législateur. Si les outils juridiques traditionnels, tels que les présomptions ou la causalité alternative, ont permis de résoudre une partie non négligeable de ces incertitudes, les juges se sont également attachés à développer des outils nouveaux comme la balance bénéfice/risque ou encore la répartition de l'obligation à la dette selon les parts de marché. Cependant, si le développement de ces outils juridiques, plus adaptés aux spécificités des produits de santé, a permis d'apporter une solution efficace aux incertitudes matérielles, le traitement de l'incertitude scientifique, fondé sur les présomptions du fait de l'homme, n'apporte, toujours pas, de solutions satisfaisantes. L'étude du traitement des incertitudes dans le contentieux des produits de santé défectueux permet d'apprécier les acquis mais également les limites atteintes par l'utilisation de certains outils mis à la disposition des juges et qui se révèlent parfois inadaptés. L'intervention du législateur et la prise en compte des spécificités des produits de santé, permettraient de développer un système d'indemnisation adapté qui interviendrait de façon subsidiaire en cas d'échec de la voie contentieuse<br>At a time when healthcare-product litigation is attaining record heights, the implementation into French law of the special liability regime for defective products, which derives from the European Council Directive of 25 July 1985, has led to the emergence of several grey areas of uncertainty which have a direct impact on the outcome of claims for compensation. Areas of material uncertainty have, for the most part, been effectively dealt with through the combined application of case law and the intervention of the legislator. While classic legal tools such as presumption and alternative causality provide a means to resolve a non-negligible part of these uncertainties, judges have also endeavoured to develop new tools, such as risk/utility test and market-share liability. Still, although the development of these legal tools - better suited as they are to the specific features of healthcare products - provide an effective solution to resolving areas of material uncertainty, the treatment of scientific uncertainty, which is based on presumptions of fact, does not always provide satisfactory solutions. The study of the legal treatment of uncertainty in healthcare-product litigation provides a means to assess the benefits but also the limitations of certain tools that are now available to judges but which at times prove inadequate. Intervention on the part of the legislator, while at the same time taking into account the specific features of healthcare products, could lead to the development of a suitable compensation system that could afford relief when litigation fails
Books on the topic "Causality link"
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Rios, Juan V. Pizarro. The link between money and prices: Causality tests for the Peruvian and Chilean cases. Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales, Université de Genève, 1993.
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Freedman, David. Statistical models and causal inference: A dialogue with the social sciences. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
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David, Freedman. Statistical models and causal inference: A dialogue with the social sciences. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
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Halpern, Joseph Y. Actual Causality. The MIT Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262035026.001.0001.
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Causality plays a central role in the way people structure the world; we constantly seek causal explanations for our observations. But what does it even mean that an event C “actually caused” event E? The problem of defining actual causation goes beyond mere philosophical speculation. For example, in many legal arguments, it is precisely what needs to be established in order to determine responsibility. The philosophy literature has been struggling with the problem of defining causality since Hume. In this book, Joseph Halpern explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression. Halpern applies and expands an approach to causality that he and Judea Pearl developed, based on structural equations. He carefully formulates a definition of causality, and building on this, defines degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. He concludes by discussing how these ideas can be applied to such practical problems as accountability and program verification.
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Bhopal, Raj S. Cause and effect: The epidemiological approach. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198739685.003.0005.
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Cause and effect understanding is the highest form of scientific knowledge. In epidemiology, demonstrating causality is difficult because of the long and complex natural history of many human diseases and because of ethical restraints. Epidemiologists should: hold the attitude that all judgements of cause and effect are tentative; understand that causal thinking demands a judgement; be alert for the play of chance, error, and bias; always consider reverse causality and confounding, utilize the power of causal models that broaden causal perspectives; apply guidelines for causality as an aid to thinking and not as a checklist; and look for corroboration of causality from other scientific frameworks for assessment of cause and effect. The ultimate aim of epidemiology is to use knowledge of cause and effect to break links between disease and its causes and to improve health. The application of erroneous knowledge has serious repercussions.
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Weiss, Alexander, and Marieke Gartner. Animal Personality. Edited by Thomas A. Widiger. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199352487.013.24.
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Animal personality has been studied for decades, and a recent renaissance in the field has revealed links to health and life outcomes that echo those found in humans. Some of this research is tied to the Five Factor Model—the predominant model of human personality—which informs animal personality research as well, and allows for comparative work that points to evolutionary pathways that delineate phylogenetic continuity. From personality facets and traits to factors, this work has implications for human and nonhuman animal genetics, life history strategies, survival, and well-being, as well as development and social relationships. Working together, scientists from a variety of fields who study personality can hope to puzzle out causality, use personality as a tool for health, and simply define personality, across species, and therefore evolutionary time.
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Perales, José C., Andrés Catena, Antonio Cándido, and Antonio Maldonado. Rules of Causal Judgment. Edited by Michael R. Waldmann. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199399550.013.6.
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Our environment is rich in statistical information. Frequencies and proportions—or their visual depictions—are pervasive in the media, and frequently used to support or weaken causal statements, or to bias people’s beliefs in a given direction. The topic of this chapter is how people integrate naturally available frequencies and probabilities into judgments of the strength of the link between a candidate cause and an effect. We review studies investigating various rules that have been claimed to underlie intuitive causal judgments. Given that none of these rules has been established as a clear winner, we conclude presenting a tentative framework describing the general psychological processes operating when people select, ponder, and integrate pieces of causally-relevant evidence with the goal of meeting real-life demands.
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Bennett, Karen. Causing. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199682683.003.0004.
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It is common to sharply distinguish between causal and noncausal determination, and to assume that building or grounding only involves the latter. That is a mistake; the line between causal and noncausal determination is not nearly as clear as it is usually taken to be. This chapter defends the claim that building is causally tainted in two quite distinct senses. First, it is useful to count causation itself as a building relation. That is, the class that includes both causation and other putatively noncausal building relations is reasonably natural and philosophically important. Second, some particular building relations other than causation hold in virtue of causal facts.
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Deslauriers, Marguerite. Aristotle on Sexual Difference. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197606186.001.0001.
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Aristotle on Sexual Difference examines Aristotle’s conception of sexual difference—the differences between male and female, men and women—both in his biological works and in his political philosophy. For Aristotle, the problem of sexual difference emerges from the tension between his assertions that the female is imperfect relative to the male and that men by nature should rule over women, and his commitment to two other claims: (1) that sex is a division in the matter and not in the form of the genus animal—so there is no difference in essential form between the male and female members of a sexually differentiated species, and (2) that sexual difference, and therefore the existence of sexed individuals, is good, both for generation and for the political life characteristic of human beings. This book analyzes how Aristotle would describe both the physiological and the psychological defects of women, and then asks how those defects might also be benefits on his account, and how the different defects might be causally connected. It has three aims. The first is to provide a comprehensive analysis of Aristotle’s conception of sexual difference in animal bodies and in political life. The second is to demonstrate that Aristotle takes sexual difference to be valuable to an animal species as well as to the city-state. The third is to establish the link between the explanation Aristotle offers for the deficiencies of the female body and his justification of distinct roles for the sexes in the household and the city.
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Muche, Marion, and Seema Baid-Agrawal. Hepatitis B. Edited by Vivekanand Jha. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199592548.003.0185_update_001.
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Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been causally linked to a variety of renal diseases, the most common being glomerular diseases and systemic autoimmune disease. Membranous nephropathy (MN) is the commonest HBV-associated glomerulonephritis (HBV-GN), followed by membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (MPGN), mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis, immunoglobulin (Ig)-A nephropathy, and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Polyarteritis nodosa is a rare manifestation. The incidence of HBV-associated renal diseases seems to be decreasing with the introduction of vaccination programmes.HBV-MN is the most frequent cause of nephrotic syndrome in children in countries with high endemicity of HBV infection. The clinical course is usually benign in children with high rates of spontaneous remission rates and low risk of progression to renal failure. The prognosis is worse in adults. Of the systemic autoimmune disorders associated with HBV infection that involve the kidneys, the strongest link has been found with polyarteritis nodosa (PAN), a lesion that causes arteritis of medium-sized renal vessels. HBV-associated PAN (HBV-PAN) usually manifests in the first year after infection, and is clinically indistinguishable from classic PAN.Diagnosis of HBV-GN or -PAN is based on the clinical picture, histological findings, evidence of viral replication in serum and/or liver and detection of HBV antigens or DNA in the tissue. Besides deposition of immune complexes, other mechanisms such as virus-induced cytopathic damage have been proposed to explain the pathogenesis.HBV-GN and HBV-PAN appear to respond to antiviral treatment. Both show remission after HBeAg seroconversion. The available studies predominantly employed first-generation agents like interferon alpha and lamivudine, which showed suppression of viral replication and clinical remission of HBV-associated renal disease. Immunosuppressive therapy appears to be inevitable for the control of severe HBV-PAN and could be helpful in addition to antiviral treatment for cases of HBV-GN not responding clinically to antiviral treatment.
Book chapters on the topic "Causality link"
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Grossberg, Stephen. "The Link Between Brain Learning, Attention, and Consciousness." In Causality, Meaningful Complexity and Embodied Cognition. Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3529-5_1.
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Damonte, Alessia, and Fedra Negri. "Conclusions. Causality Between Plurality and Unity." In Texts in Quantitative Political Analysis. Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12982-7_11.
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AbstractThe previous chapters convey the image of causal analysis in public policy and beyond as a fragmented field where research communities seldom learn from each other’s findings. This chapter resumes the ontological, epistemological, and methodological evidence that causal analysis is characterized by a plurality of objects and “incommensurable” interpretations. It also argues that the same evidence pinpoints how this plurality is complementary at every level, and causal structures raise as the elements that link ontology and methodology and can organize heterogeneous findings to improve learning across accounts.
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Chapman, Kenneth S., and Govind Hariharan. "Controlling for Causality in the Link from Income to Mortality." In The Mortality Costs of Regulatory Expenditures. Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1360-1_5.
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Bessec, Marie, and Sophie Méritet. "The Causality Link between Energy Prices, Technology and Energy Intensity." In The Econometrics of Energy Systems. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230626317_6.
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Cardona, Pablo, and Carlos Rey. "Is There a Link Between Corporate Purpose and Performance?" In Management by Missions. Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83780-8_1.
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AbstractAfter 50 years of debate on this crucial question, the evidence is increasingly strong in favor of “yes”: companies can achieve better results if they incorporate practices that foster people’s sense of purpose. This relationship seems to be valid for very different types of industries and various business strategies within the cost-differentiation spectrum. However, causality between purpose and performance is not as linear as some literature and consultants seem to indicate. In this chapter, we discuss this relationship under the perspective of unity (the degree of mutual trust and commitment to the company experienced by people who contribute to fulfilling its purpose). Based on this perspective, we provide a framework that distinguishes four types of cultures: bureaucratic, paternalistic, aggressive and competent.
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Pattnaik, Monalisha, and Padmabati Gahan. "Stock Market Growth Link in Asian Emerging Countries: Evidence from Granger Causality and Co-integration Tests." In Advances in Growth Curve and Structural Equation Modeling. Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1843-6_2.
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Barrientos, Armando. "Employment." In Social Protection in Latin America. Springer International Publishing, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49795-7_5.
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AbstractThis chapter examines the stratification effects of social protection institutions on employment. The conventional approach, supported by current theories of welfare institutional development, is to assume that the structure of employment shapes social protection institutions. This makes sense when researching the origins of welfare institutions. However, once social protection institutions are in place, they exercise considerable influence on employment. The direction of causality is now from social protection to employment. The discussion in the chapter explores the stratification effects of social protection institutions on the structure of employment. The chapter discussed social protection contribution to three changes in employment in the region: tertiarisation, job polarisation and relocation, and participation in global production networks. Approaching the association between social protection and employment as a causal link brings new insights on social protection institutions in the region.
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Guasch, Helena, Berta Bonet, Chloé Bonnineau, et al. "How to Link Field Observations with Causality? Field and Experimental Approaches Linking Chemical Pollution with Ecological Alterations." In The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25722-3_7.
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Osman, Magda. "Causality and coincidence — links between past, present, and future." In Future-Minded. Macmillan Education UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-02227-1_4.
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Garcia, Daniela. "COATIS, an NLP system to locate expressions of actions connected by causality links." In Knowledge Acquisition, Modeling and Management. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bfb0026799.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Causality link"
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BOITAN, Iustina Alina, and Wafaa SHABBAN. "The Governance Profile of European Countries and Key Banking Indicators – A Causality Analysis." In The International Conference on Economics and Social Sciences. Editura ASE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/icess/2024/053.
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The study documents a significant relationship in terms of causality between country-level governance indicators (as a component of ESG) and main banking system indicators by relying on a sample of European Union countries that exhibit a temperate climate profile. Granger causality test is used to assess the link between banking system and country governance, in terms of a cause-effect framework. The findings show that the influence of country governance performance on banking activity is most pronounced in Belgium, Portugal, and Spain while in the Netherlands, France, Greece, and Italy the interplay is relatively balanced. Banking system indicators that appear to precede changes in governance ones in most countries are related to bank credit to bank deposits, bank deposits to GDP, and bank non-performing loans to gross loans. Bilateral causality is present mostly in Greece and Spain, the control of corruption and bank non-performing loans being the variables most often included in the causal link.
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Farid, M., and S. A. Lukasiewicz. "Optimal Control of a Two-Link Flexible Manipulator Along Specified Path." In ASME 1996 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece1996-0667.
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Abstract In this paper a technique is proposed to find near time-optimal control solution of a two-link manipulator with torque and path constraints. Both links and joints are assumed to be flexible. The proposed approach is based on transforming the optimal control problem into an equivalent unconstrained optimum design problem using penalty function methods. Since in flexible manipulators the point for which the prescribed motion is specified and the application points of control torques are connected by elastic bodies, their inverse dynamics is non-causal. The proposed algorithm takes into account the non-causality of such systems via considering pre-actuation and post-actuation in the solution procedure.
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Karn, Arodh Lal, and Rakshha Kumari Karna. "Supply line engineering on importation and exportation: bimstec perspective." In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.016.
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Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.
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Birnintsaba, Dahiru Alhaji Bala, and Ahmad Sulaiman. "The Influence Relationship Between Climate Change and Economic Growth: Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis for Nigeria." In 27th iSTEAMS-ACity-IEEE International Conference. Society for Multidisciplinary and Advanced Research Techniques - Creative Research Publishers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.22624/aims/isteams-2021/v27p39.
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Recently examining the role of climate change in economic growth has gained considerable attention among scholars. In doing so, they usually employed CO2 emission or the temperature level as proxies of climate change. With this in mind, we empirically revisit the linear and nonlinear causal relationships amid climate change and economic growth using both of these indexes for Nigeria. For the nonlinear consideration, in addition, application of granger test for linear and nonlinear causality, we also benefit from bias-free methodology of nonparametric test using Granger causality. The standard causal linear tests do not discover any causative flows between the series under examination. Yet, we show that among the variables there exist nonlinear processes. Hence, these results are not well grounded due to the inability of the direct causality test to capture the inventive phenomena in the data. However, according to Granger causality test a nonlinear unidirectional evidence of causality that affect the economic growth to CO2 emissions was found to be unidirectional while for a temperature – growth nexus a bidirectional causal link was detected. Keywords: Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, Climate Change, Nonlinear Granger, Nigeria, JEL Codes: O11, Q54, C54
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Ay, Ahmet, Fahri Kurşunel, and Mahamane Moutari Abdou Baoua. "Relationship Between Trade Openness, Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for African Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.02013.
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The more a country is open to trade, the more it attracts investors and the faster its economy develops. However, some study showed that sometime it can be the opposite of all this. In this context, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between trade openness, capital formation and economic growth in African countries. To do so, we collected data of GDP per capita, trade (% of GDP), Gross national expenditure and capital formation variables. The method applied is panel cointegration and causality by using time series of 38 African countries for the period of 1990-2014. According to the results there is long run relationship between all the variables and the cross sectional co-integration test result indicates that there is more cointegration in Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Niger and Guinea-Bissau. With highest GDP per capita, Equatorial Guinea has more long-run relationship between trade openness, capital formation and economic growth. However, one of the poorest countries in the world (Niger), has also efficient long run relationship between the variables. The panel causality test results suggest that there is unidirectional causal relationship from trade openness to economic growth. There is also bidirectional causality link between capital formation and economic growth. In the same context, causal link exists from capital formation to trade openness. The study suggests that African countries must increase the investment promotions in order to increase the capital formation and trade openness then to boost economic growth.
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Çevik, Savaş, Ahmet Ay, and Mahamane Moutari Abdou Baoua. "Natural Resources Revenue, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.02005.
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The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between natural resources revenue, fiscal policy and economic growth for 35 selected Sub-Saharan African countries. The panel data covering the periods of 1986-2014 was analyzed by using the fixed/random effect model estimation and the panel causality test. We also performed the panel unit root test in order to insure that our variables are stationary. The empirical results indicate that there is insignificant negative effect of natural resources revenue and bad fiscal policy on the economic growth. However, there is significant positive effect of capital formation on economic growth. We also found a bidirectional causality relationship between Natural resources rents and economic growth. There is also unidirectional causality link from government final consumption expenditure to Natural resources revenue and from Natural resources revenue to capital formation. These empirical results mean that Sub-Saharan African countries apply bad fiscal policy to improve the natural resource sector which does not efficiently contribute to the economic growth. This study suggests that countries of Sub-Saharan Africa must apply improved fiscal policy in order to add tax revenue to their total revenue; and they must also use the natural resources revenue in order to invest in other sectors such as education, manufacturing and agriculture.
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Kim, Anthony, Jeremy Pitcock, and Justin Zhang. "Efficient Computation of Causality in Globally Hyperbolic Spacetimes Using Link Invariants and Relevant Applications to Quantum Computing." In 2023 IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering (QCE). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/qce57702.2023.10184.
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Cvetanoska, Marijana, and Predrag Trpeski. "HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTH MACEDONIA: EVIDENCE FROM CAUSALITY TESTING AND COVID-19 CHALLENGES." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2020.0018.
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The link between education and economic growth has been the subject of public debate, and it has been widespread interest among economists in solving key economic problems. As a determinant of human capital, which is one of the factors of production, education has its own contribution in the process of globalization where economies are transformed and based on knowledge. Particularly higher education has a high economic value because it causes the formation of human capital and it is often seen as vital for a continued growth performance, prosperity, and competitiveness in national and global economies. Higher education contributes to the economic growth by producing higher-level skills and competencies needed for a shift towards knowledge-based economy. For these reasons, countries all over the world especially the developing countries such as North Macedonia, are giving higher education special attention to facilitate the economic growth. In this study, the co-integration between higher education and economic growth in North Macedonia is analyzed using dynamic methods. Toda Yamamoto's approach for Granger's causality (TY) developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is used to analyze the causality between economic growth and higher education. For this aim, a bivariate VAR model is constructed. This study provides an evidence for the causality between higher education and economic growth in North Macedonia. Moreover, a key role of higher education institutions is to drive innovation, with the aim of finding solutions to global challenges. Today, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a danger that COVID-19 will destabilize this educational level, with serious consequences. Therefore, the challenges that higher education is faced are emphasized in order to help education institutions and policy-makers to reflect on them and be prepared to address them, while re-emphasizing the role of higher education in supporting to conform the post-COVID19 pandemic.
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Korkmaz, Özge. "Terrorism and Macroeconomy: A Review of The Eurasian Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01818.
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The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.
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Sun, Schyler C., Bailu Jin, Zhuangkun Wei, and Weisi Guo. "Revealing the Excitation Causality between Climate and Political Violence via a Neural Forward-Intensity Poisson Process." In Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-22}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2022/718.
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The causal mechanism between climate and political violence is fraught with complex mechanisms. Current quantitative causal models rely on one or more assumptions: (1) the climate drivers persistently generate conflict, (2) the causal mechanisms have a linear relationship with the conflict generation parameter, and/or (3) there is sufficient data to inform the prior distribution. Yet, we know conflict drivers often excite a social transformation process which leads to violence (e.g., drought forces agricultural producers to join urban militia), but further climate effects do not necessarily contribute to further violence. Therefore, not only is this bifurcation relationship highly non-linear, there is also often a lack of data to support prior assumptions for high resolution modeling. Here, we aim to overcome the aforementioned causal modeling challenges by proposing a neural forward-intensity Poisson process (NFIPP) model. The NFIPP is designed to capture the potential non-linear causal mechanism in climate induced political violence, whilst being robust to sparse and timing-uncertain data. Our results span 20 recent years and reveal an excitation-based causal link between extreme climate events and political violence across diverse countries. Our climate-induced conflict model results are cross-validated against qualitative climate vulnerability indices. Furthermore, we label historical events that either improve or reduce our predictability gain, demonstrating the importance of domain expertise in informing interpretation.
Reports on the topic "Causality link"
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Chong, Alberto E., and Mark Gradstein. Inequality and Institutions. Inter-American Development Bank, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010744.
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This paper presents theory and evidence on the relationship between inequality and institutional quality. We propose a model in which the two dynamically reinforce each other and set out to test this relationship with a broad array of institutional measures. We establish double causality between better institutional quality and a more equal distribution of income, but also demonstrate that the link from the latter dominates the former. These results are shown to be robust to various specifications and different data sources that cover various time-spans.
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Perdigão, Rui A. P., and Julia Hall. Spatiotemporal Causality and Predictability Beyond Recurrence Collapse in Complex Coevolutionary Systems. Meteoceanics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46337/201111.
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Causality and Predictability of Complex Systems pose fundamental challenges even under well-defined structural stochastic-dynamic conditions where the laws of motion and system symmetries are known. However, the edifice of complexity can be profoundly transformed by structural-functional coevolution and non-recurrent elusive mechanisms changing the very same invariants of motion that had been taken for granted. This leads to recurrence collapse and memory loss, precluding the ability of traditional stochastic-dynamic and information-theoretic metrics to provide reliable information about the non-recurrent emergence of fundamental new properties absent from the a priori kinematic geometric and statistical features. Unveiling causal mechanisms and eliciting system dynamic predictability under such challenging conditions is not only a fundamental problem in mathematical and statistical physics, but also one of critical importance to dynamic modelling, risk assessment and decision support e.g. regarding non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events. In order to address these challenges, generalized metrics in non-ergodic information physics are hereby introduced for unveiling elusive dynamics, causality and predictability of complex dynamical systems undergoing far-from-equilibrium structural-functional coevolution. With these methodological developments at hand, hidden dynamic information is hereby brought out and explicitly quantified even beyond post-critical regime collapse, long after statistical information is lost. The added causal insights and operational predictive value are further highlighted by evaluating the new information metrics among statistically independent variables, where traditional techniques therefore find no information links. Notwithstanding the factorability of the distributions associated to the aforementioned independent variables, synergistic and redundant information are found to emerge from microphysical, event-scale codependencies in far-from-equilibrium nonlinear statistical mechanics. The findings are illustrated to shed light onto fundamental causal mechanisms and unveil elusive dynamic predictability of non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events across multiscale hydro-climatic problems.
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Viswanathan, Meera, Jennifer Cook Middleton, Alison Stuebe, et al. Maternal, Fetal, and Child Outcomes of Mental Health Treatments in Women: A Systematic Review of Perinatal Pharmacologic Interventions. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23970/ahrqepccer236.
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Background. Untreated maternal mental health disorders can have devastating sequelae for the mother and child. For women who are currently or planning to become pregnant or are breastfeeding, a critical question is whether the benefits of treating psychiatric illness with pharmacologic interventions outweigh the harms for mother and child. Methods. We conducted a systematic review to assess the benefits and harms of pharmacologic interventions compared with placebo, no treatment, or other pharmacologic interventions for pregnant and postpartum women with mental health disorders. We searched four databases and other sources for evidence available from inception through June 5, 2020 and surveilled the literature through March 2, 2021; dually screened the results; and analyzed eligible studies. We included studies of pregnant, postpartum, or reproductive-age women with a new or preexisting diagnosis of a mental health disorder treated with pharmacotherapy; we excluded psychotherapy. Eligible comparators included women with the disorder but no pharmacotherapy or women who discontinued the pharmacotherapy before pregnancy. Results. A total of 164 studies (168 articles) met eligibility criteria. Brexanolone for depression onset in the third trimester or in the postpartum period probably improves depressive symptoms at 30 days (least square mean difference in the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, -2.6; p=0.02; N=209) when compared with placebo. Sertraline for postpartum depression may improve response (calculated relative risk [RR], 2.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 5.24; N=36), remission (calculated RR, 2.51; 95% CI, 0.94 to 6.70; N=36), and depressive symptoms (p-values ranging from 0.01 to 0.05) when compared with placebo. Discontinuing use of mood stabilizers during pregnancy may increase recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.2; N=89) and reduce time to recurrence of mood disorders (2 vs. 28 weeks, AHR, 12.1; 95% CI, 1.6 to 91; N=26) for bipolar disorder when compared with continued use. Brexanolone for depression onset in the third trimester or in the postpartum period may increase the risk of sedation or somnolence, leading to dose interruption or reduction when compared with placebo (5% vs. 0%). More than 95 percent of studies reporting on harms were observational in design and unable to fully account for confounding. These studies suggested some associations between benzodiazepine exposure before conception and ectopic pregnancy; between specific antidepressants during pregnancy and adverse maternal outcomes such as postpartum hemorrhage, preeclampsia, and spontaneous abortion, and child outcomes such as respiratory issues, low Apgar scores, persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn, depression in children, and autism spectrum disorder; between quetiapine or olanzapine and gestational diabetes; and between benzodiazepine and neonatal intensive care admissions. Causality cannot be inferred from these studies. We found insufficient evidence on benefits and harms from comparative effectiveness studies, with one exception: one study suggested a higher risk of overall congenital anomalies (adjusted RR [ARR], 1.85; 95% CI, 1.23 to 2.78; N=2,608) and cardiac anomalies (ARR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.34; N=2,608) for lithium compared with lamotrigine during first- trimester exposure. Conclusions. Few studies have been conducted in pregnant and postpartum women on the benefits of pharmacotherapy; many studies report on harms but are of low quality. The limited evidence available is consistent with some benefit, and some studies suggested increased adverse events. However, because these studies could not rule out underlying disease severity as the cause of the association, the causal link between the exposure and adverse events is unclear. Patients and clinicians need to make an informed, collaborative decision on treatment choices.
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Beuermann, Diether, Nicolas L. Bottan, Bridget Hoffmann, C. Kirabo; Jackson, and Diego A. Vera-Cossio. Does Education Prevent Job Loss during Downturns?: Evidence from Exogenous Schools Assignments and COVID-19 in Barbados. Inter-American Development Bank, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003624.
Full textAbstract:
Canonical human capital theories posit that education, by enhancing worker skills, reduces the likelihood that a worker will be laid off during times of economic change. Yet, this has not been demonstrated causally. We link administrative education records from 1987 through 2002 to nationally representative surveys conducted before and after the onset of COVID-19 in Barbados to explore the causal impact of improved education on job loss during this period. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, Beuermann and Jackson (2020) show that females (but not males) who score just above the admission threshold for more selective schools in Barbados attain more years of education than those that scored just below (essentially holding initial ability fixed). Here, in follow-up data, we show that these same females (but not males) are much less likely to have lost a job after the onset of COVID-19. We show that these effects are not driven by sectoral changes, or changes in labor supply. Because employers observe incumbent worker productivity, these patterns are inconsistent with pure education signaling, and they suggest that education enhances worker skill.
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Wolfmaier, Susanne, Adrian Foong, and Christian König. Climate, conflict and COVID-19: How does the pandemic affect EU policies on climate-fragility? Adelphi research gemeinnützige GmbH, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/casc018.
Full textAbstract:
The links between climate change and conflict have been well-documented in recent observations and academic literature: far from being causally direct, these links often depend on specific conditions and occur through certain pathways (Koubi, 2019). For example, conflicts have been found to be more likely in areas with poor access to infrastructure and facilities (Detges, 2016), or where government distrust and political bias are prevalent (Detges, 2017). As such, climate change has often been described as a ‘threat multiplier’, making it imperative for security and development actors to consider these fragility risks collectively in their policies and strategies. In addition to the expected impacts of climate change on the European Union (EU), such as increasing temperatures, extreme weather events or rising sea levels, climate change also has “direct and indirect international security impacts” for the EU’s foreign- and security policy (Council of the European Union, 2016). These affect for example migration, food security, access to resources and socio-economic factors that possibly contribute to disruptions (ibid.). The resulting fragility may affect the EU by contributing to changes in geopolitical power dynamics, whilst at the same time needs for support in neighbouring and partner countries could increase (Brown, Le More & Raasteen, 2020). The EU has increasingly acknowledged climate-fragility risks over the last years, as is evident from several key foreign policy strategies, agreements, and decisions. The European Green Deal, for example, aims to cushion climate and environmental impacts that may exacerbate instability (European Commission, 2019). At the regional level, individual policies underline the links between climate impacts and security in partner regions, such as for the Sahel (Council of the European Union, 2021a) and the Neighbourhood (EEAS, 2021a), stressing the importance in tackling those risks. To that end, the EU has been at the forefront in providing multilateral support for its partner regions, through its various instruments related to climate, environment, development, and security. According to official EU sources, EU funding for official development assistance (ODA) rose by 15% in nominal terms from 2019 to €66.8 billion in 2020 (European Commission, 2021a). Furthermore, the share dedicated to climate action is also growing: the EU initiative Global Climate Change Alliance Plus (GCCA+) received an additional €102.5 million for the period 2014-2020 compared to the previous phase 2004- 2014 (European Commission, n.d.). Looking ahead, the EU’s recently approved Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 is set to provide €110.6 billion in funding for external action and pre-accession assistance to its Neighbourhood and rest of the world (European Commission, 2021b). Despite the increased recognition of climate-related fragility risks in EU policies and the funding committed to climate action and international development, implementation of concrete measures to address these risks are lagging behind, with only a handful of EUfunded projects addressing climate-fragility risks (Brown, Le More & Raasteen, 2020). Compounding these challenges is the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the current vaccine rollout worldwide, and with some countries seeing a potential end to the health crisis, the pandemic has taken – and continues to take – its toll in many parts of the world. The unprecedented nature of COVID-19 could ultimately make it more difficult for the EU to address the impacts of climate change on fragility and security in its partner regions. In other words: How does the pandemic affect the EU’s ability to address climate-fragility risks in its neighbourhood? To answer this question, this paper will explore the implications of COVID-19 on relevant EU policies and strategies that address the climate security nexus, focusing on three regions: the Sahel, North Africa, and Western Balkans. These regions were chosen for geographical representativeness (i.e., being the EU’s southern and eastern neighbouring regions), as well as being priority regions for EU external action, and, in the case of the Western Balkans, for EU accession.1 The remainder of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 outlines, in general terms, the impacts of the pandemic on the political priorities and ability of the EU to address climate-fragility risks. Section 3 explores, for each focus region, how the pandemic affects key objectives of EU policies aiming at reducing climate-fragility risks in that region. Section 4 provides several recommendations on how the EU can better address the interlinking risks associated with climate-fragility and COVID-19.