Journal articles on the topic 'Business forecasting Australia'

This paper identifies the usefulness of available national indicators in forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia from the USA, Japan, the UK and New Zealand. Income, unemployment, forward exchange rate, money supply, price ratio, industrial production, imports and exports of the tourist's country of origin are potential leading indicators of the tourist arrival series. A composite indicator is developed to forecast tourist arrivals. Further, disaggregated data are analysed to determine whether there is likely to be any increase in accuracy if the travel data is divided by travel type. The main travel types analysed are ‘holiday’, ‘visiting friends and relatives’ (VFR) and ‘business’ as well as total flow. To establish the causality between the indicator and international tourist arrivals to Australia, the performance of the transfer function model incorporating the national indicator is compared with ARIMA forecasts.

We examine whether discretionary and non-discretionary accruals improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows in an Australian context. Using both within-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests; we demonstrate that discretionary accruals improve the predictive ability of earnings in the forecast of future cash flows. Further, discretionary and non-discretionary accruals and direct method cash flow components together are more useful than (i) aggregate earnings, (ii) aggregate cash flow from operations and total accruals, and (iii) aggregate cash flow from operations, discretionary accruals and nondiscretionary accruals.

Purpose The algorithmic trading has advanced exponentially and necessitates the evaluation of intraday stock market forecasting on the grounds that any stock market series are foreseen to follow the random walk hypothesis. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the intraday values of stock indices using data mining techniques and compare the techniques’ performance in different markets to accomplish the best results. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the intraday values (every 60th-minute closing value) of four different markets (namely, UK, Australia, India and China) spanning from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018. The forecasting performance of multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARSplines), support vector regression (SVR), backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and autoregression (1) are compared using statistical measures. Robustness evaluation is done to check the performance of the models on the relative ratios of the data. Findings MARSplines produces better results than the compared models in forecasting every 60th minute of selected stocks and stock indices. Next to MARSplines, SVR outperforms neural network and autoregression (1) models. The MARSplines proved to be more robust than the other models. Practical implications Forecasting provides a substantial benchmark for companies, which entails long-run operations. Significant profit can be earned by successfully predicting the stock’s future price. The traders have to outperform the market using techniques. Policy makers need to estimate the future prices/trends in the stock market to identify the link between the financial instruments and monetary policy which gives higher insights about the mechanism of existing policy and to know the role of financial assets in many channels. Thus, this study expects that the proposed model can create significant profits for traders by more precisely forecasting the stock market. Originality/value This study contributes to the high-frequency forecasting literature using MARSplines, SVR and BPNN. Finding the most effective way of forecasting the stock market is imperative for traders and portfolio managers for investment decisions. This study reveals the changing levels of trends in investing and expectation of significant gains in a short time through intraday trading.

Despite major accounting standards boards worldwide continuing to use fair value extensively, academic evidence on the relevance of fair value accounting has focused on financial assets. This study breaks new ground to provide the first empirical evidence for the agricultural sector on the relevance of fair value accounting. It examines the forecasting power of the fair value of biological assets for future operating cash flows. Using all agribusinesses listed in Australia, where fair value accounting was first implemented in the agricultural sector, we find that fair value of biological assets does not provide incremental forecasting power for future operating cash flows, whether market-determined prices or managerially estimated value is used. The findings of this study provide empirical support for the call by Elad and Herbohn in 2011 for the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to revisit the implementation of fair value accounting in the agricultural sector. JEL Classification: G14, G38, M41, Q18

PurposeThis study updates and extends the current work on the issue of accuracy of property valuation. The paper investigates the factors that contribute to property valuation inaccuracy and examines different strategies to achieve greater accuracy in practice.Design/methodology/approachAn online questionnaire was designed and administered on the Australian Property Institute (API) registered valuers, attempting to examine their perceptions on the current state of valuation accuracy in Australia. The variables/statements from responses are ranked overall and compared for differences by the characteristics of respondents.FindingsUsing mean rating point, the survey ranked three factors; inexperience valuers, the selection, interpretation and use of comparable evidence in property valuation exercise and the complexity of the subject property in terms of design, age, material specification and state of repairs as the most significant factors currently affecting valuation inaccuracy. The results of a Chi-square test did not, however, show a significant statistical relationship between respondents' profile and the perception on the comparative importance of the factors identified. Except for valuers' age and inexperience valuers and valuers' educational qualification and inexperience valuers and the selection, interpretation and use of comparable evidence in property valuation exercise. Also, the three highly ranked strategies for reducing the level of inaccuracy are: developing a global mindset, use of advanced methodology and training valuers on market forecasting skills.Practical implicationsIn order for valuers to provide state-of-the-art service to the public and to remain relevant, there is a need to accurately and reliably estimate valuation figures. Hence, the strategies highlighted in this study could be considered in a bid to reduce property valuation inaccuracy in practice.Originality/valueThis study provides an updated overview of the issue of property valuation inaccuracy in the Australia valuation practice and examines the strategies to reduce it.

Accurately forecasting the movement of exchange rates is of interest in a variety of fields, such as international business, financial management, and monetary policy, though this is not an easy task due to dramatic fluctuations caused by political and economic events. In this study, we develop a new forecasting approach referred to as FSPSOSVR, which is able to accurately predict exchange rates by combining particle swarm optimization (PSO), random forest feature selection, and support vector regression (SVR). PSO is used to obtain the optimal SVR parameters for predicting exchange rates. Our analysis involves the monthly exchange rates from January 1971 to December 2017 of seven countries including Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the FSPSOSVR algorithm is compared with six competing forecasting models using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), including random walk, exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA, SVR, and PSOSVR. Our empirical results show that the FSPSOSVR algorithm consistently yields excellent predictive accuracy, which compares favorably with competing models for all currencies. These findings suggest that the proposed algorithm is a promising method for the empirical forecasting of exchange rates. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of exchange rate forecasts arising from FSPSOSVR by use of foreign exchange carry trades and find that the proposed trading strategies can deliver positive excess returns of more than 3% per annum for most currencies, except for AUD and NTD.

Purpose eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) is an internet-based interactive form of reporting language that is expected to enhance the usefulness of financial reporting (Yuan and Wang, 2009). In the UK and the USA, XBRL is mandatory, and in Australia, it is voluntarily adopted. It has been reported that in the not too distant future, XBRL will be the standard format for the preparation and exchange of business reports (Gettler, 2015). Using an experimental approach, this study assesses the usefulness of financial reports with XBRL tagged information compared to PDF format information for non-professional investors. The authors investigate participants’ perceptions of usefulness in relation to the qualitative characteristics of relevance, understandability and comparability. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses an experimental approach featuring a profit-forecasting task to determine if participants perceive XBRL-tagged information to be more useful compared to PDF-formatted information. Findings Results reveal that financial information presented with XBRL tagging is significantly more relevant, understandable and comparable to non-professional investors. Originality/value The authors address a gap in the literature by examining XBRL usefulness in Australia where XBRL adoption will be mandated within the not too distant future. Currently, the voluntary adoption of XBRL by preparers and users is low, possibly, because of a lack of awareness about XBRL and its potential benefits. This study yields significant implications for the accounting regulators in creating more awareness on the benefits of using XBRL and to create an impetus for XBRL adoption.

Nowadays, one of the main pollutant factors is the inefficient use and breakdown of energy technologies. Improving access to modern energy, which emits less pollution, both at home and in the community could benefit the health of many people. Besides, it could contribute to the long-term goals of sustainable development. Health is a universal indicator of progress towards sustainable energy. Given the issue’s relevance, this article examines the impact of energy on public health. The study’s purpose is to substantiate the prospects for achieving sustainable development and human well-being, which depends on the quality of the environment and could be provided by a carbon-free economy. The methodological basis of the work is general scientific research methods, such as empirical and theoretical methods, as well as systemic and functional methods. This study applied VOSviewer tools, Web of Science and Scopus analysis tools, and Google Trends to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the impact of energy factors on public health. Based on Scopus data, the findings confirmed the hypothesis concerning a growing trend of publications examining the impact of energy factors on human health. In the study framework, the VOSviewer 1.6.18 tools allowed the detection of six clusters of research streams: renewable resources, sustainable development, public, energy policy, energy efficiency, and solar energy. The authors noted that different countries research the impact of energy on public health. These issues are most actively studied in China, the USA, and India. A separate dynamics of the publications were studied for 10 countries leading in the publication activity on the subject. The Google Trends tool has identified public interest in the topic. The interest of business and industry is considered separately. The findings showed that in the first case, the interest is more in the health factor. In turn, businesses and industries pay more attention to developing renewable energy sources. Google Trends analysis of the popularity of the search query «renewable energy» identified Korea, Turkey, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Germany as leaders in the number of queries. However, the keywords healthy leaders are New Zealand, USA, Canada, Poland, and Australia.

International Business Research wishes to acknowledge the following individuals for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Their help and contributions in maintaining the quality of the journal are greatly appreciated.International Business Research is recruiting reviewers for the journal. If you are interested in becoming a reviewer, we welcome you to join us. Please find the application form and details at http://recruitment.ccsenet.org and e-mail the completed application form to ibr@ccsenet.org.Reviewers for Volume 10, Number 6 Ahmad Mahmoud Ahmad Zamil, King Saud University RCC, JordanAlina Badulescu, University of Oradea, RomaniaNasim Saadati, Panjab University, IndiaAmran Awang, Head of Entrepreneurship Center, MalaysiaAlireza Athari, Eastern Mediterranean University, IranSerhii Kozlovskiy, Donetsk National University, UkraineMaria Teresa Bianchi, University of Rome “LA SAPIENZA”, ItalyMongi Arfaoui, University of Monastir, TunisiaAurelija Burinskiene, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, LithuaniaHung-Che Wu, Nanfang College of Sun Yat-sen University, ChinaGiuseppe Granata, University of Cassino and Southen Lazio, ItalyVincent Grèzes, University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland (HES-SO Valais-Wallis), SwitzerlandGianluca Ginesti, University of Naples “FEDERICO II”, ItalyAbedalqader Rababah, Arab Open University, OmanMuath Eleswed, American University of Kuwait, USAFrancesco Ciampi, Florence University, ItalyGeorgeta Dragomir, “Danubius” University of Galati, RomaniaFabio De Felice, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, ItalyLadislav Mura, University of Ss. Cyril and Methodius in Trnava, SlovakiaMalgorzata Koszewska, Lodz University of Technology, PolandManlio Del Giudice, University of Rome "Link Campus", ItalyManuela Rozalia Gabor, “Petru Maior” University of Tîrgu Mureş, RomaniaMaria do Céu Gaspar Alves, University of Beira Interior, PortugalMihaela Simionescu, Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, RomaniaModar Abdullatif, Middle East University, JordanJorge Mongay-Hurtado, ESIC Business and Marketing School, SpainRadoslav Jankal, University of Zilina, SlovakiaRafiuddin Ahmed, James Cook University, AustraliaTerrill Frantz, Peking University HSBC Business School, USAVassili JOANNIDES de LAUTOUR, Grenoble École de Management (France) and Queensland University of Technology School of Accountancy (Australia), FranceMohsen Malekalketab Khiabani, University Technology Malaysia, MalaysiaMaria J. Sanchez-Bueno, Universidad Carlos III se Madrid, SpainCheng Jing, eBay, Inc. / University of Rochester, USAArash Riasi, University of Delaware, USASumathisri Bhoopalan, Sastra University, IndiaFevzi Esen, Istanbul Medeniyet University, TurkeyAshford C Chea, Benedict College, USA

Perkembangan dunia usaha atau industry mengalami persaingan yang begitu ketat dan peningkatan permintaan. Aktivitas pendistribusian merupakan salah satu factor yang sangat penting dari akhir sebuah proses produksi. Distribusi ini sangat menentukan untuk penjadwalan dan tingkat biaya yang dibutuhkan untuk mendistribusikan sebuah produk. Metode yang digunakan dalam hal ini adalah metode Distribution Resorces Planning (DRP) dan data yang didapatkan berdasar data histori selama 1 tahun dengan tujuan penelitian yaitu, mengoptimalkan penjadwalan aktivitas distribusi dan melakukan distribusi dengan biaya yang efisien. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dan pengolahan data yang dilakukan pada distribusi ke 3 negara yakni China,USA,dan Australia sesuai distribusi yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan total biaya distribusi sebesar Rp. 91.071.776.880,00 dengan total frekuensi pengiriman sebanyak 12 kali. Berdasarkan metode Distribution Resources Planning (DRP) dengan menggunakan teknik forecasting (peramalan) linear regression, menghitung lot sizing (ukuran lot), dan safety stock (stok pengaman) maka, biaya distribusi yang dihasilkan sebesar Rp. 90.879.778.846,74 dengan total frekuensi pengiriman sebanyak 12 kali. Dengan menggunakan metode Distribution Resources Planning (DRP) ini maka didapatkan penurunan biaya distribusi sebesar 21,08% atau sebanyak Rp.191.998.411,26 dari biaya distribusi yang dilakukan tanpa menggunakan metode Distribution Resources Planning (DRP). The development of the business world or industry is experiencing intense competition and increased demand. Distribution activity is one of the most important factors at the end of a production process. This distribution is very decisive for scheduling and the level of the cost required to distribute a product. The method used in this case is the Distribution Resources Planning (DRP) method and data obtained based on historical data for 1 year with the purpose of research, namely, optimizing the scheduling of distribution activities and distributing at an efficient cost. Based on the results of research and data processing conducted in distribution to 3 countries namely China, USA, and Australia in accordance with the distribution carried out by the company's total distribution cost of Rp. 91,071,776,880.00 with a total shipping frequency of 12 times. Based on Distribution Resources Planning (DRP) method by using the linear regression forecasting technique, calculating lot sizing (lot size), and safety stock (safety stock), the resulting distribution cost is Rp. 90,879,778,846.74 with a total shipping frequency of 12 times. By using the distribution resources planning (DRP) method, distribution costs decreased by 21.08% or as much as Rp.191,998,411.26 from distribution costs carried out without using the distribution resources planning (DRP) method.

The transfer of market power in electric generation from utilities to end-users spurred by the diffusion of distributed energy resources necessitates a new system of settlement in the electricity business that can better manage generation assets at the grid-edge. A new concept in facilitating distributed generation is peer-to-peer energy trading, where households exchange excess power with neighbors at a price they set themselves. However, little is known about the effects of peer-to-peer energy trading on the sociotechnical dynamics of electric power systems. Further, given the novelty of the concept, there are knowledge gaps regarding the impact of alternative electricity market structures and individual decision strategies on neighborhood exchanges and market outcomes. This study develops an empirical agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate peer-to-peer electricity trades in a decentralized residential energy market. The framework is applied for a case study in Perth, Western Australia, where a blockchain-enabled energy trading platform was trialed among 18 households, which acted as prosumers or consumers. The ABM is applied for a set of alternative electricity market structures. Results assess the impact of solar generation forecasting approaches, battery energy storage, and ratio of prosumers to consumers on the dynamics of peer-to-peer energy trading systems. Designing an efficient, equitable, and sustainable future energy system hinges on the recognition of trade-offs on and across, social, technological, economic, and environmental levels. Results demonstrate that the ABM can be applied to manage emerging uncertainties by facilitating the testing and development of management strategies.

The strategies of many large organisations are underpinned by top down, hierarchical management, complex forecasting and predictive modelling, standardised processes, siloed business units, division of labour, information biases and disjointed stakeholder management. Rigid and inflexible, organisations are struggling to respond to the risks associated with unpredictable, ever changing and complex operational environments. Budget blowouts into the billions of dollars, stretched resources, increasing governance, social and political interdependencies and a complex playing field that is constantly changing as it grows and matures is what oil and gas companies in Australia today face. Proponents of Australia’s massive LNG boom are doing the hard yards and they are feeling the pressure. Unfortunately with pressure comes poor decision making. Lack of access to evidence based and up to date, real time information means decisions are often made based on intuition or unqualified, out of date information due to immature systems. Research has clearly proven that intuitive decision making results in cognitive biases. These biases results in perceptual blindness or distortion (seeing things that aren’t really there), illogical interpretation (being non-sensical) and inaccurate judgments (being just plain wrong). Without a system in place to manage risks in it’s operational space, companies will continue to make poor decisions that only increase the risks they try so hard to control. This paper proposes a new approach to better understanding organisational interdependency and risk management through adoption of a network centric approach. It explores the benefits of a network centric approach and how this it can be applied in a multi dimensional environment to not only reduce risk events and costs but enable a truly resilient and competitive business.

International Business Research wishes to acknowledge the following individuals for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Their help and contributions in maintaining the quality of the journal are greatly appreciated. International Business Research is recruiting reviewers for the journal. If you are interested in becoming a reviewer, we welcome you to join us. Please contact us for the application form at: ibr@ccsenet.org Reviewers for Volume 13, Number 8   Anca Gabriela Turtureanu, “DANUBIUS” University Galati, Romania Andrea Carosi, University of Sassari, Italy Andrei Buiga, “ARTIFEX University of Bucharest, Romania Anna Maria Calce, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Italy Anna Paola Micheli, Univrtsity of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Italy Antonio Usai, University of Sassari, Italy Anuradha Iddagoda   , University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka Ashford C Chea, Benedict College, USA Ayoub Taha Sidahmed, SIU, Sudan Benjamin James Inyang, University of Calabar, Nigeria Chokri Kooli, International Center for Basic Research applied, Paris, Canada Dionito F. Mangao, Cavite State University – Naic Campus, Philippines Duminda Kuruppuarachchi, University of Otago, New Zealand Farouq Altahtamouni, Imam AbdulRahman Bin Fisal University, Jordan Fawzieh Mohammed Masad, Jadara University, Jordan Federico de Andreis, "UNIVERSITY “GIUSTINO FORTUNATO”Benevento", Italy Filomena Izzo, University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Italy Florin Ionita, The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania Hanna Trojanowska, Warsaw University of Technology, Poland Hillary Odor, University of Benin, Nigeria L. Leo Franklin, Bharathidasn University, India Marco Valeri, Niccolò Cusano University, Italy Maria Teresa Bianchi, University of Rome “LA SAPIENZA”, Italy Maria-Madela Abrudan, University of ORADEA, Romania Maryam Ebrahimi, Azad University, Iran Michele Rubino, Università LUM Jean Monnet, Italy Mihaela Simionescu, Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, Romania Mohsen Malekalketab Khiabani, University Technology Malaysia, Malaysia Mongi Arfaoui, University of Monastir, Tunisia Ouedraogo Sayouba, University Ouaga 2, Burkina Faso Pascal Stiefenhofer, University of Exeter, UK Rafiuddin Ahmed, James Cook University, Australia Roberto Campos da Rocha Miranda, Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, Brazil Rossana Piccolo, University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Italy Sachita Yadav, Manav Rachna University, Faridabad, India Sara Saggese, University of Naples Federico II, Italy Sumathisri Bhoopalan, SASTRA Deemed to be University, India Tatiana Marceda Bach, Centro Universitário Univel (UNIVEL), Brazil Yan Lu, University of Central Florida, USA

Eco-efficiency is an important ecological indicator for tracking the progress of how countries’ environmental-adjusted economic activity changes over time. The objective of this research is to calculate country-level eco-efficiency for a group of 18 major countries (G18) that are part of the G20. First, the data envelope analysis (DEA) method is used to calculate eco-efficiency scores. Second, the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is used to examine how eco-efficiency changes over time. Eco-efficiency is forecast to the year 2040 using automated forecasting methods under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Over the period 1997 to 2040, eco-efficiency varies widely between these countries with some countries reporting positive growth in eco-efficiency and other countries reporting negative growth. Eco-efficiency leaders over the period 1997 to 2019 and 2019 to 2040 include Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Laggards include Canada, China, India, and Indonesia. These laggard countries recorded negative growth rates in eco-efficiency over the period 1997 to 2019 and 2019 to 2040. Negative eco-efficiency growth points to a worsening of environmental sustainability. Large variations in eco-efficiency between countries make it more difficult to negotiate international agreements on energy efficiency and climate change. For the G18 countries, the average annual change in MPI over the period 1997 to 2019 was 0.5%, while the forecasted average annual change over the period 2019 to 2040 was a 0.1% decrease. For the G18 countries, there has been little change in eco-efficiency. The G18 are an important group of developed and developing countries that need to show leadership when it comes to increasing eco-efficiency.

Demand forecasting has a pivotal role in making informed business decisions by predicting future sales using historical data. Traditionally, demand forecasting has been widely used in the management of production, staffing and warehousing for sales and marketing data. However, the use of demand forecasting has little been studied in the container shipping industry. Improved visibility into the demand for container shipments has been a long-held objective of industry stakeholders. This paper addresses the shortcomings of both short-term and long-term shipment demand forecasting for the Australian container shipping industry. In this study, we compare three forecasting models, namely, the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Holt–Winters’ seasonal method and Facebook’s Prophet, to find the best fitting model for short-term and long-term import demand forecasting in the Australian shipping industry. Demand data from three years, i.e., 2016–2018, is used for the Asia–Oceania trade lane. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and 2-fold walk-forward cross-validation are used for the model evaluation. The experiment results observed from the selected metrics suggest that Prophet outperforms the other models in its comparison for container shipment demand forecasting.

This study examines the predictive power of implied volatility smirk to forecast foreign exchange (FX) return. The volatility smirk contains critical information, especially when the market experiences negative news. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Euro, and British pound options traded in the opening, midday and closing periods of the trading day are selected to estimate the currency smirk. Research results reveal that the currency smirk outperforms in forecasting FX returns. In addition, the steeper slope in the middle of the trading day suggests that the predictive power of currency smirk in the midday period is higher compared to the opening and closing periods. However, currency smirks’ predictability lasts for a short period, as the FX market is highly adept at incorporating the vital information embedded in the currency smirk. These findings imply that the currency smirk is distinctive for forecasting very short-term FX fluctuations, and the day- or overnight FX traders can use its uniqueness to profit from quick price swings in the 24-hour global FX market.

Many market commentators are forecasting increased corporate merger and acquisition activity in the Australian oil and gas sector. This activity presents industry participants with significant opportunities to increase shareholder value.An effectively designed acquisition approach (business process) assists in establishing strategic objectives to maximise value and returns to a company. Steps in a structured process include assessing the acquirer’s strengths and weaknesses, defining the strategy, identifying the range of possible targets and evaluating the preferred target prior to negotiating and completing the acquisition.Observed market evidence supports the theoretical notion that market participants determine the value of E&P companies with primary reference to the NAV (DCF) methodology. The benefits of this valuation methodology are that it attempts to rigorously capture the effect of large changes in production over time and the irregular nature of E&P companies’ capital expenditure programs.Effective due diligence supports the decision-making process by identifying the risk factors that can make or break a deal and assists to clarify the transaction whilst effective structuring of the acquisition will minimise value-loss through tax leakages etc.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the supply chain management (SCM) skills that support the sensing and seizing of opportunities in a changing business environment. Design/methodology/approach Based on the previous literature on the T-shaped model of SCM skills, data were collected through a mail survey among Australian business executives. The resultant skill sets are grouped along factors that support the sensing vs seizing of opportunities. Findings Interestingly from an SCM perspective, functional logistics-related skills are important to maintain competitiveness but are not the ones contributing to a firm’s ability to sense opportunities and threats, and to seize opportunities in a changing business environment. The authors, therefore, support the notion that supply chain managers should be managers first. Factual SCM knowledge is the solid basis, but otherwise only an entry requirement in this field. Research limitations/implications Problem-solving skills, along with forecasting and customer/supplier relationship management, stand out as important components that support the ability of supply chain managers to sense and shape opportunities and threats in a turbulent business environment. This focus would tend to suggest the importance of supply chain integration and collaboration as management approaches. Other SCM skills from warehousing and inventory management to transportation and purchasing are more prevalent for maintaining competitiveness. Practical implications The results of the survey and the consequential analysis indicate that the content of tertiary-level educational programmes should be significantly reviewed to deliver two distinct (but partially overlapping) streams that focus on the generalist and functionalist managers who must work together in the management of the increasingly global and complex supply chains. Social implications Functional skills often form the basis of training and education programmes for supply chain managers. Whilst these form the solid foundation for their jobs, they are entry requirements at best. In a changing business environment, other skills are needed for success. Given that turbulence is becoming the norm rather than the exception, this finding necessitates rethinking in training and education programmes, as well as in the recruitment of supply chain managers. Originality/value Testing the T-shaped model of SCM skills from a dynamic capabilities perspective, the results of the factor analysis lead to a regrouping of skill sets in terms of sensing and seizing opportunities in a turbulent business environment.

Objective The aim of the present study was to develop a robust model that uses the concept of ‘rehabilitation-sensitive’ Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) in predicting demand for rehabilitation and geriatric evaluation and management (GEM) care following acute in-patient episodes provided in Australian hospitals. Methods The model was developed using statistical analyses of national datasets, informed by a panel of expert clinicians and jurisdictional advice. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken using acute in-patient data, published national hospital statistics and data from the Australasian Rehabilitation Outcomes Centre. Results The predictive model comprises tables of probabilities that patients will require rehabilitation or GEM care after an acute episode, with columns defined by age group and rows defined by grouped Australian Refined (AR)-DRGs. Conclusions The existing concept of rehabilitation-sensitive DRGs was revised and extended. When applied to national data, the model provided a conservative estimate of 83% of the activity actually provided. An example demonstrates the application of the model for service planning. What is known about the topic? Health service planning is core business for jurisdictions and local areas. With populations ageing and an acknowledgement of the underservicing of subacute care, it is timely to find improved methods of estimating demand for this type of care. Traditionally, age–sex standardised utilisation rates for individual DRGs have been applied to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections to predict the future need for subacute services. Improved predictions became possible when some AR-DRGs were designated ‘rehabilitation-sensitive’. This improved methodology has been used in several Australian jurisdictions. What does this paper add? This paper presents a new tool, or model, to predict demand for rehabilitation and GEM services based on in-patient acute activity. In this model, the methodology based on rehabilitation-sensitive AR-DRGs has been extended by updating them to AR-DRG Version 7.0, quantifying the level of ‘sensitivity’ and incorporating the patient’s age to improve the prediction of demand for subacute services. What are the implications for practitioners? The predictive model takes the form of tables of probabilities that patients will require rehabilitation or GEM care after an acute episode and can be applied to acute in-patient administrative datasets in any Australian jurisdiction or local area. The use of patient-level characteristics will enable service planners to improve their forecasting of demand for these services. Clinicians and jurisdictional representatives consulted during the project regarded the model favourably and believed that it was an improvement on currently available methods.

Purpose Property market models have the overriding aim of predicting reasonable estimates of key dependent variables (demand, supply, rent, yield, vacancy and net absorption rate). These can be based on independent drivers of core property and economic activities. Accurate predictions can only be conducted when ample quantitative data are available with fewer uncertainties. However, a broad-fronted social, technical and ecological evolution can throw up sudden, unexpected shocks that result in the econometric outputs sceptical to unknown risk factors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate Australian office market forecast accuracy and to determine whether the forecasts capture extreme downside risk events. Design/methodology/approach This study follows a quantitative research approach, using secondary data analysis to test the accuracy of economists’ forecasts. The forecast accuracy evaluation encompasses the measurement of economic and property forecasts under the following phases: testing for the forecast accuracy; analysing outliers of forecast errors; and testing of causal relationships. Forecast accuracy measurement incorporates scale independent metrics that include Theil’s U values (U1 and U2) and mean absolute scaled error. Inter-quartile range rule is used for the outlier analysis. To find the causal relationships among variables, the time series regression methodology is utilised, including multiple regression analysis and Granger causality developed under the vector auto regression (VAR). Findings The credibility of economic and property forecasts was questionable around the period of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC); a significant man-made Black Swan event. The forecast accuracy measurement highlighted rental movement and net absorption forecast errors as the critical inaccurate predictions. These key property variables are explained by historic information and independent economic variables. However, these do not explain the changes when error time series of the variables were concerned. According to VAR estimates, all property variables have a significant causality derived from the lagged values of Australian S&P/ASX 200 (ASX) forecast errors. Therefore, lagged ASX forecast errors could be used as a warning signal to adjust property forecasts. Research limitations/implications Secondary data were obtained from the premier Australian property markets: Canberra, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne and Perth. A limited ten-year timeframe (2001-2011) was used in the ex-post analysis for the comparison of economic and property variables. Forecasts ceased from 2011, due to the discontinuity of the Australian Financial Review quarterly survey of economists; the main source of economic forecast data. Practical implications The research strongly recommended naïve forecasts for the property variables, as an input determinant in each office market forecast equation. Further, lagged forecast errors in the ASX could be used as a warning signal for the successive property forecast errors. Hence, data adjustments can be made to ensure the accuracy of the Australian office market forecasts. Originality/value The paper highlights the critical inaccuracy of the Australian office market forecasts around the GFC. In an environment of increasing incidence of unknown events, these types of risk events should not be dismissed as statistical outliers in real estate modelling. As a proactive strategy to improve office market forecasts, lagged ASX forecast errors could be used as a warning signal. This causality was mirrored in rental movements and total vacancy forecast errors. The close interdependency between rents and vacancy rates in the forecasting process and the volatility in rental cash flows reflects on direct property investment and subsequently on the ASX, is therefore justified.

Abstract Rainfall bursts are relatively short-lived events that typically occur over consecutive days, up to a week. Northern Australian industries like sugar farming and beef are highly sensitive to burst activity, yet little is known about the multiweek prediction of bursts. This study evaluates summer (December–March) bursts over northern Australia in observations and multiweek hindcasts from the Bureau of Meteorology’s multiweek to seasonal system, the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, Seasonal version 1 (ACCESS-S1). The main objective is to test ACCESS-S1’s skill to confidently predict tropical burst activity, defined as rainfall accumulation exceeding a threshold amount over three days, for the purpose of producing a practical, user-friendly burst forecast product. The ensemble hindcasts, made up of 11 members for the period 1990–2012, display good predictive skill out to lead week 2 in the far northern regions, despite overestimating the total number of summer burst days and the proportion of total summer rainfall from bursts. Coinciding with a predicted strong Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the skill in burst event prediction can be extended out to four weeks over the far northern coast in December; however, this improvement is not apparent in other months or over the far northeast, which shows generally better forecast skill with a predicted weak MJO. The ability of ACCESS-S1 to skillfully forecast bursts out to 2–3 weeks suggests the bureau’s recent prototype development of a burst potential forecast product would be of great interest to northern Australia’s livestock and crop producers, who rely on accurate multiweek rainfall forecasts for managing business decisions.

Purpose This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study. Design/methodology/approach This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios. Findings First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting. Research limitations/implications The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy. Practical implications The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies. Social implications The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy. Originality/value This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Introduction: the purpose of this research is to analyze the relationships and growth trends of Industry 4.0 within the global universe of current literature on innovation, limited to the subject area of business, administration, and accounting by means of a bibliometric analysis. Method: Scopus is used as a database for the analysis of 513 documents for the period from 1998 to 2021. VOS viewer was used for processing Scopus database and elaboration of figures representing the relationships between samples. Results: the number of documents is exponentially growing, starting with a trend in 2017 and increasing ever since. The most dynamic source is Technological Forecasting And Social Change. The author with most documents is Voight, K. L. with 10, and the most distinguished institution is the University of Johannesburg with 14 documents. The country with more documents is Italy, with 69. According to the database 69 % of the total documents are articles and 23,4 % are conference papers. The number of documents in the area of Business, Management and Accounting, with 513 documents, exceeds by far any other area, representing 42 % of all documents. The funding sponsor with more documents is the National Natural Science Foundations of China with 13 documents. Some of the most updated organizations are Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, The center for digital labor markets. The country with more documents is United Kingdom with 50 documents and 584 citations, followed by United States with 1110 citations. United States has mainly bonds with China, Australia, United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. United Kingdom has mainly bonds with France, Italy, Germany and United States. China’s main relations are Australia, United States, Pakistan, Taiwan, Turkey, Brazil and South Korea. Italy’s main bonds are France, Spain, Brazil, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, Austria and Portugal. It could be determined that countries are mostly grouped in 6 clusters. Conclusion: Although there are not many publications yet, it can be inferred that the term industry 4.0 within the available literature of innovation will keep increasing exponentially over time reinforcing relations between authors, institutions and countries. Based on the current state of literature, the subject area of business, management, and accounting will keep on being the one that encompasses most of the available documents.

Purpose This study aims to explore the need for improved data sources and models for COVID-19 and climate-related risk scenario analysis in primary production. The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting global markets for agricultural produce, making short-term forecasting highly uncertain. Meanwhile climate-related risk continues for agricultural businesses. Farmers and their accountants need to plan and make estimates about the potential effect of COVID-19 and ongoing climate risks to their natural and financial capital and so they need accounting-integrated biophysical and socio-economic data streams. Design/methodology/approach This research note reviews the current state of scenario-based planning for COVID-19 and other risks for Australian businesses generally, in addition to planning for farming businesses more specifically. Discussion of the authors’ current research in integrating accounting and farming data for water-related risk caused by climate and other challenges is presented as an analogous case. Findings Review and analogous case comparison demonstrate the need for farm data to be integrated more efficiently and effectively with accounting data for accurate scenario planning for COVID-19 and other risks, including those posed by climate. Practical implications While not strangers to the need for scenario analysis, given exposure to ever-increasing natural resource and climate variability, this research note highlights how primary producers and their accountants require increased accounting-integrated farm data and systems to make judgements, assumptions and estimates about the potential effect of COVID-19 and ongoing climate risks to their business. Social implications The sustainability of the agricultural sector is of great relevance to all of us and so the development of tools and resources that can assist food producers in times of ongoing climate pressures and new crises, such as COVID-19, is important. Better understanding of such risks can help farm businesses develop effective strategies which minimise the potential loss of agricultural value resulting in improved flows of greater capital value for society. Originality/value Through application to the analogous case of water-related risk and decision-making, the research note demonstrates that linking of biophysical and accounting data streams will be essential for evidence-backed numbers included in scenario plans with enough legitimacy to be interrogated inside and outside of the business. The “best estimate of the directors” is no longer enough in challenging socio-economic and biophysical times ahead for primary producers.

Key Performance Indicators in performance management system was attracted by researchers and practitioners. In order to effective implemented KPIs in SMEs, managers must deeply understand about the KPIs, role of KPIs, implemented KPIs. Based on the quantitative method by doing survey with 162 SEMs, author indicated the current situation of the perception of SMEs manager about the fundamental of KPI, roles of KPIs and difficulty implemented KPIs in performance management system. Based on the consistent theory about KPIs , author proposed some solution for manager to enhance their knowledge of KPIs. Keywords SMEs, KPIs , Performance appraisal References Ahmad, M. M., & Dhafr, N. (2002). Establishing and improving manufacturing performance measures. Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, 18(3), 171-176. Aylin Ates, Patrizia Garengo, Paola Cocca, Umit Bititci (2013), The development of SME managerial practice for effective performance management, Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 20(1), 28-54Ayoup, H., Omar, N. H., & Rahman, I. K. A. (2012). Implementation of Balance Scorecard (BSC) in a Malaysian GLC: Perceptions of Middle Managers. Asia-Pacific Management Accounting Journal, 7(2), 99-126.Barney, J. (1991), ‘Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage’ Journal of Management, 17(1), 99-120Cagliano, R., Blackmon, K. and Voss, C. (2001).Small firms under microscope: international differences in production/operations management practices and performance. Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 12, 469– 482.Corbett, L. M. (1998). Benchmarking manufacturing performance in Australia and New Zealand. Benchmarking for Quality Management & Technology, 5(4), 271-282. De Waal, A. A. (2003). Behavioral factors important for the successful implementation and use of performance management systems. Management Decision, 41(8), 688-697.Garengo, P., Biazzo, S., & Bititci, U. S. (2005). Performance measurement systems in SMEs: A review for a research agenda. International journal of management reviews, 7(1), 25-47.Epstein, M. J., & Roy, M.-J. (2001). Sustainability in action: Identifying and measuring the key performance drivers. Long range planning, 34(5), 585-604. Evans, N. (2005). Assessing the Balanced Scorecard as a Management Tool for Hotels, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality, Management Accounting, 17, 5 : 376-390.Jakelski, D., & Lebrasseur, R. (1997). Implementing continuous improvement in the North American mining industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 55(2), 165-177. Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., Anderson, R. E., & Tatham, R. L. (1998). Multivariate data analysis (Vol. 5): Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, NJ.Lado, A. A., & Wilson, M. C. (1994), ‘Human resource systems and sustained competitive advantage: A competency-based perspective’, Academy of management review, 19(4), 699-727.Mai Thanh Lan (2016), Xây dựng các năng lực cho nhà quản trị cấp trung nhằm nâng cao năng lực cạnh tranh của doanh nghiệp, Tạp chí Kinh tế & phát triển, 225, 90-99.Lê Quân (2015), Lãnh đạo doanh nghiệp Việt Nam: Hội đồng quản trị; Ban điều hành; Khung năng lực; Thẻ điểm cân bằng; Chỉ số hoàn thành, NXB Đại học Quốc Gia Hà Nội, Hà Nội.Martins, R.A. and Salerno, M.S. (1999). Use of new performance measurement system, some empirical findings. In Managing Operations Networks – VI International EurOMA Conference, Venice, Italy, 7–8 JuneParmenter, D. (2010). Key performance indicators (KPI): developing, implementing, and using winning KPIs: John Wiley & Sons.Rodriguez, R. R., Saiz, J. J. A., & Bas, A. O. (2009). Quantitative relationships between key performance indicators for supporting decision-making processes. Computers in Industry, 60(2), 104-113. Shahin, A., & Mahbod, M. A. (2007). Prioritization of key performance indicators: An integration of analytical hierarchy process and goal setting. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 56(3), 226-240.Nguyễn Đình Thọ (2012). Phương pháp nghiên cứu khoa học trong kinh doanh. Thiết kế và thực hiện. Hà Nội: Nhà xuất bản Lao động xã hộiTsai, Y.-C., & Cheng, Y.-T. (2012). Analyzing key performance indicators (KPIs) for E-commerce and Internet marketing of elderly products: A review. Archives of gerontology and geriatrics, 55(1), 126-132. Yeung, J. F., Chan, A. P., & Chan, D. W. (2009). A computerized model for measuring and benchmarking the partnering performance of construction projects. Automation in Construction, 18(8), 1099-1113.

AbstractFactors affecting fertilizer decisions made by grain growers are changing in the context of changing climatic conditions and growing volatility in global fertilizer and grain markets. To ensure sustainable development of grain industries in light of this uncertainty, research, development, extension, and adoption activities associated with growers’ fertilizer decisions need to be focused on factors to which they are most sensitive. The aim of this paper is to understand the factors that have the greatest influence on grain producer’s fertilizer strategies, how these factors have changed over recent years, and what is the relative importance of agronomic, socioeconomic, and logistical factors affecting these strategies. A telephone survey of 425 grain-growing businesses in Western Australia was conducted, and survey results were analyzed statistically. We show for the first time that grain growers’ fertilizer decisions are most sensitive to agronomic factors (especially the amount and distribution of rainfall). Logistic factors (such as difficulties fertilizing increasing areas in short periods of time) are growing in influence as farm size, cropping areas, and the number of fertilizer applications within seasons increase. Fertilizer decisions have become less sensitive to socioeconomic factors over the last 10 to 15 years. To ensure sustainable development of grain production, research through to adoption activities should focus on agronomic issues (such as seasonal forecasting) and logistic issues (such as improving planning, organizational, and technical capacity for developing and implementing fertilizer strategies).

Alfred Hermida recently posited ‘ambient journalism’ as a new framework for para- and professional journalists, who use social networks like Twitter for story sources, and as a news delivery platform. Beginning with this framework, this article explores the following questions: How does Hermida define ‘ambient journalism’ and what is its significance? Are there alternative definitions? What lessons do current platforms provide for the design of future, real-time platforms that ‘ambient journalists’ might use? What lessons does the work of Brian Eno provide–the musician and producer who coined the term ‘ambient music’ over three decades ago? My aim here is to formulate an alternative definition of ambient journalism that emphasises craft, skills acquisition, and the mental models of professional journalists, which are the foundations more generally for journalism practices. Rather than Hermida’s participatory media context I emphasise ‘institutional adaptiveness’: how journalists and newsrooms in media institutions rely on craft and skills, and how emerging platforms can augment these foundations, rather than replace them. Hermida’s Ambient Journalism and the Role of Journalists Hermida describes ambient journalism as: “broad, asynchronous, lightweight and always-on communication systems [that] are creating new kinds of interactions around the news, and are enabling citizens to maintain a mental model of news and events around them” (Hermida 2). His ideas appear to have two related aspects. He conceives ambient journalism as an “awareness system” between individuals that functions as a collective intelligence or kind of ‘distributed cognition’ at a group level (Hermida 2, 4-6). Facebook, Twitter and other online social networks are examples. Hermida also suggests that such networks enable non-professionals to engage in ‘communication’ and ‘conversation’ about news and media events (Hermida 2, 7). In a helpful clarification, Hermida observes that ‘para-journalists’ are like the paralegals or non-lawyers who provide administrative support in the legal profession and, in academic debates about journalism, are more commonly known as ‘citizen journalists’. Thus, Hermida’s ambient journalism appears to be: (1) an information systems model of new platforms and networks, and (2) a normative argument that these tools empower ‘para-journalists’ to engage in journalism and real-time commentary. Hermida’s thesis is intriguing and worthy of further discussion and debate. As currently formulated however it risks sharing the blind-spots and contradictions of the academic literature that Hermida cites, which suffers from poor theory-building (Burns). A major reason is that the participatory media context on which Hermida often builds his work has different mental models and normative theories than the journalists or media institutions that are the target of critique. Ambient journalism would be a stronger and more convincing framework if these incorrect assumptions were jettisoned. Others may also potentially misunderstand what Hermida proposes, because the academic debate is often polarised between para-journalists and professional journalists, due to different views about institutions, the politics of knowledge, decision heuristics, journalist training, and normative theoretical traditions (Christians et al. 126; Cole and Harcup 166-176). In the academic debate, para-journalists or ‘citizen journalists’ may be said to have a communitarian ethic and desire more autonomous solutions to journalists who are framed as uncritical and reliant on official sources, and to media institutions who are portrayed as surveillance-like ‘monitors’ of society (Christians et al. 124-127). This is however only one of a range of possible relationships. Sole reliance on para-journalists could be a premature solution to a more complex media ecology. Journalism craft, which does not rely just on official sources, also has a range of practices that already provides the “more complex ways of understanding and reporting on the subtleties of public communication” sought (Hermida 2). Citizen- and para-journalist accounts may overlook micro-studies in how newsrooms adopt technological innovations and integrate them into newsgathering routines (Hemmingway 196). Thus, an examination of the realities of professional journalism will help to cast a better light on how ambient journalism can shape the mental models of para-journalists, and provide more rigorous analysis of news and similar events. Professional journalism has several core dimensions that para-journalists may overlook. Journalism’s foundation as an experiential craft includes guidance and norms that orient the journalist to information, and that includes practitioner ethics. This craft is experiential; the basis for journalism’s claim to “social expertise” as a discipline; and more like the original Linux and Open Source movements which evolved through creative conflict (Sennett 9, 25-27, 125-127, 249-251). There are learnable, transmissible skills to contextually evaluate, filter, select and distil the essential insights. This craft-based foundation and skills informs and structures the journalist’s cognitive witnessing of an event, either directly or via reconstructed, cultivated sources. The journalist publishes through a recognised media institution or online platform, which provides communal validation and verification. There is far more here than the academic portrayal of journalists as ‘gate-watchers’ for a ‘corporatist’ media elite. Craft and skills distinguish the professional journalist from Hermida’s para-journalist. Increasingly, media institutions hire journalists who are trained in other craft-based research methods (Burns and Saunders). Bethany McLean who ‘broke’ the Enron scandal was an investment banker; documentary filmmaker Errol Morris first interviewed serial killers for an early project; and Neil Chenoweth used ‘forensic accounting’ techniques to investigate Rupert Murdoch and Kerry Packer. Such expertise allows the journalist to filter information, and to mediate any influences in the external environment, in order to develop an individualised, ‘embodied’ perspective (Hofstadter 234; Thompson; Garfinkel and Rawls). Para-journalists and social network platforms cannot replace this expertise, which is often unique to individual journalists and their research teams. Ambient Journalism and Twitter Current academic debates about how citizen- and para-journalists may augment or even replace professional journalists can often turn into legitimation battles whether the ‘de facto’ solution is a social media network rather than a media institution. For example, Hermida discusses Twitter, a micro-blogging platform that allows users to post 140-character messages that are small, discrete information chunks, for short-term and episodic memory. Twitter enables users to monitor other users, to group other messages, and to search for terms specified by a hashtag. Twitter thus illustrates how social media platforms can make data more transparent and explicit to non-specialists like para-journalists. In fact, Twitter is suitable for five different categories of real-time information: news, pre-news, rumours, the formation of social media and subject-based networks, and “molecular search” using granular data-mining tools (Leinweber 204-205). In this model, the para-journalist acts as a navigator and “way-finder” to new information (Morville, Findability). Jaron Lanier, an early designer of ‘virtual reality’ systems, is perhaps the most vocal critic of relying on groups of non-experts and tools like Twitter, instead of individuals who have professional expertise. For Lanier, what underlies debates about citizen- and para-journalists is a philosophy of “cybernetic totalism” and “digital Maoism” which exalts the Internet collective at the expense of truly individual views. He is deeply critical of Hermida’s chosen platform, Twitter: “A design that shares Twitter’s feature of providing ambient continuous contact between people could perhaps drop Twitter’s adoration of fragments. We don’t really know, because it is an unexplored design space” [emphasis added] (Lanier 24). In part, Lanier’s objection is traceable back to an unresolved debate on human factors and design in information science. Influenced by the post-war research into cybernetics, J.C.R. Licklider proposed a cyborg-like model of “man-machine symbiosis” between computers and humans (Licklider). In turn, Licklider’s framework influenced Douglas Engelbart, who shaped the growth of human-computer interaction, and the design of computer interfaces, the mouse, and other tools (Engelbart). In taking a system-level view of platforms Hermida builds on the strength of Licklider and Engelbart’s work. Yet because he focuses on para-journalists, and does not appear to include the craft and skills-based expertise of professional journalists, it is unclear how he would answer Lanier’s fears about how reliance on groups for news and other information is superior to individual expertise and judgment. Hermida’s two case studies point to this unresolved problem. Both cases appear to show how Twitter provides quicker and better forms of news and information, thereby increasing the effectiveness of para-journalists to engage in journalism and real-time commentary. However, alternative explanations may exist that raise questions about Twitter as a new platform, and thus these cases might actually reveal circumstances in which ambient journalism may fail. Hermida alludes to how para-journalists now fulfil the earlier role of ‘first responders’ and stringers, in providing the “immediate dissemination” of non-official information about disasters and emergencies (Hermida 1-2; Haddow and Haddow 117-118). Whilst important, this is really a specific role. In fact, disaster and emergency reporting occurs within well-established practices, professional ethics, and institutional routines that may involve journalists, government officials, and professional communication experts (Moeller). Officials and emergency management planners are concerned that citizen- or para-journalism is equated with the craft and skills of professional journalism. The experience of these officials and planners in 2005’s Hurricane Katrina in the United States, and in 2009’s Black Saturday bushfires in Australia, suggests that whilst para-journalists might be ‘first responders’ in a decentralised, complex crisis, they are perceived to spread rumours and potential social unrest when people need reliable information (Haddow and Haddow 39). These terms of engagement between officials, planners and para-journalists are still to be resolved. Hermida readily acknowledges that Twitter and other social network platforms are vulnerable to rumours (Hermida 3-4; Sunstein). However, his other case study, Iran’s 2009 election crisis, further complicates the vision of ambient journalism, and always-on communication systems in particular. Hermida discusses several events during the crisis: the US State Department request to halt a server upgrade, how the Basij’s shooting of bystander Neda Soltan was captured on a mobile phone camera, the spread across social network platforms, and the high-velocity number of ‘tweets’ or messages during the first two weeks of Iran’s electoral uncertainty (Hermida 1). The US State Department was interested in how Twitter could be used for non-official sources, and to inform people who were monitoring the election events. Twitter’s perceived ‘success’ during Iran’s 2009 election now looks rather different when other factors are considered such as: the dynamics and patterns of Tehran street protests; Iran’s clerics who used Soltan’s death as propaganda; claims that Iran’s intelligence services used Twitter to track down and to kill protestors; the ‘black box’ case of what the US State Department and others actually did during the crisis; the history of neo-conservative interest in a Twitter-like platform for strategic information operations; and the Iranian diaspora’s incitement of Tehran student protests via satellite broadcasts. Iran’s 2009 election crisis has important lessons for ambient journalism: always-on communication systems may create noise and spread rumours; ‘mirror-imaging’ of mental models may occur, when other participants have very different worldviews and ‘contexts of use’ for social network platforms; and the new kinds of interaction may not lead to effective intervention in crisis events. Hermida’s combination of news and non-news fragments is the perfect environment for psychological operations and strategic information warfare (Burns and Eltham). Lessons of Current Platforms for Ambient Journalism We have discussed some unresolved problems for ambient journalism as a framework for journalists, and as mental models for news and similar events. Hermida’s goal of an “awareness system” faces a further challenge: the phenomenological limitations of human consciousness to deal with information complexity and ambiguous situations, whether by becoming ‘entangled’ in abstract information or by developing new, unexpected uses for emergent technologies (Thackara; Thompson; Hofstadter 101-102, 186; Morville, Findability, 55, 57, 158). The recursive and reflective capacities of human consciousness imposes its own epistemological frames. It’s still unclear how Licklider’s human-computer interaction will shape consciousness, but Douglas Hofstadter’s experiments with art and video-based group experiments may be suggestive. Hofstadter observes: “the interpenetration of our worlds becomes so great that our worldviews start to fuse” (266). Current research into user experience and information design provides some validation of Hofstadter’s experience, such as how Google is now the ‘default’ search engine, and how its interface design shapes the user’s subjective experience of online search (Morville, Findability; Morville, Search Patterns). Several models of Hermida’s awareness system already exist that build on Hofstadter’s insight. Within the information systems field, on-going research into artificial intelligence–‘expert systems’ that can model expertise as algorithms and decision rules, genetic algorithms, and evolutionary computation–has attempted to achieve Hermida’s goal. What these systems share are mental models of cognition, learning and adaptiveness to new information, often with forecasting and prediction capabilities. Such systems work in journalism areas such as finance and sports that involve analytics, data-mining and statistics, and in related fields such as health informatics where there are clear, explicit guidelines on information and international standards. After a mid-1980s investment bubble (Leinweber 183-184) these systems now underpin the technology platforms of global finance and news intermediaries. Bloomberg LP’s ubiquitous dual-screen computers, proprietary network and data analytics (www.bloomberg.com), and its competitors such as Thomson Reuters (www.thomsonreuters.com and www.reuters.com), illustrate how financial analysts and traders rely on an “awareness system” to navigate global stock-markets (Clifford and Creswell). For example, a Bloomberg subscriber can access real-time analytics from exchanges, markets, and from data vendors such as Dow Jones, NYSE Euronext and Thomson Reuters. They can use portfolio management tools to evaluate market information, to make allocation and trading decisions, to monitor ‘breaking’ news, and to integrate this information. Twitter is perhaps the para-journalist equivalent to how professional journalists and finance analysts rely on Bloomberg’s platform for real-time market and business information. Already, hedge funds like PhaseCapital are data-mining Twitter’s ‘tweets’ or messages for rumours, shifts in stock-market sentiment, and to analyse potential trading patterns (Pritchett and Palmer). The US-based Securities and Exchange Commission, and researchers like David Gelernter and Paul Tetlock, have also shown the benefits of applied data-mining for regulatory market supervision, in particular to uncover analysts who provide ‘whisper numbers’ to online message boards, and who have access to material, non-public information (Leinweber 60, 136, 144-145, 208, 219, 241-246). Hermida’s framework might be developed further for such regulatory supervision. Hermida’s awareness system may also benefit from the algorithms found in high-frequency trading (HFT) systems that Citadel Group, Goldman Sachs, Renaissance Technologies, and other quantitative financial institutions use. Rather than human traders, HFT uses co-located servers and complex algorithms, to make high-volume trades on stock-markets that take advantage of microsecond changes in prices (Duhigg). HFT capabilities are shrouded in secrecy, and became the focus of regulatory attention after several high-profile investigations of traders alleged to have stolen the software code (Bray and Bunge). One public example is Streambase (www.streambase.com), a ‘complex event processing’ (CEP) platform that can be used in HFT, and commercialised from the Project Aurora research collaboration between Brandeis University, Brown University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. CEP and HFT may be the ‘killer apps’ of Hermida’s awareness system. Alternatively, they may confirm Jaron Lanier’s worst fears: your data-stream and user-generated content can be harvested by others–for their gain, and your loss! Conclusion: Brian Eno and Redefining ‘Ambient Journalism’ On the basis of the above discussion, I suggest a modified definition of Hermida’s thesis: ‘Ambient journalism’ is an emerging analytical framework for journalists, informed by cognitive, cybernetic, and information systems research. It ‘sensitises’ the individual journalist, whether professional or ‘para-professional’, to observe and to evaluate their immediate context. In doing so, ‘ambient journalism’, like journalism generally, emphasises ‘novel’ information. It can also inform the design of real-time platforms for journalistic sources and news delivery. Individual ‘ambient journalists’ can learn much from the career of musician and producer Brian Eno. His personal definition of ‘ambient’ is “an atmosphere, or a surrounding influence: a tint,” that relies on the co-evolution of the musician, creative horizons, and studio technology as a tool, just as para-journalists use Twitter as a platform (Sheppard 278; Eno 293-297). Like para-journalists, Eno claims to be a “self-educated but largely untrained” musician and yet also a craft-based producer (McFadzean; Tamm 177; 44-50). Perhaps Eno would frame the distinction between para-journalist and professional journalist as “axis thinking” (Eno 298, 302) which is needlessly polarised due to different normative theories, stances, and practices. Furthermore, I would argue that Eno’s worldview was shaped by similar influences to Licklider and Engelbart, who appear to have informed Hermida’s assumptions. These influences include the mathematician and game theorist John von Neumann and biologist Richard Dawkins (Eno 162); musicians Eric Satie, John Cage and his book Silence (Eno 19-22, 162; Sheppard 22, 36, 378-379); and the field of self-organising systems, in particular cyberneticist Stafford Beer (Eno 245; Tamm 86; Sheppard 224). Eno summed up the central lesson of this theoretical corpus during his collaborations with New York’s ‘No Wave’ scene in 1978, of “people experimenting with their lives” (Eno 253; Reynolds 146-147; Sheppard 290-295). Importantly, he developed a personal view of normative theories through practice-based research, on a range of projects, and with different creative and collaborative teams. Rather than a technological solution, Eno settled on a way to encode his craft and skills into a quasi-experimental, transmittable method—an aim of practitioner development in professional journalism. Even if only a “founding myth,” the story of Eno’s 1975 street accident with a taxi, and how he conceived ‘ambient music’ during his hospital stay, illustrates how ambient journalists might perceive something new in specific circumstances (Tamm 131; Sheppard 186-188). More tellingly, this background informed his collaboration with the late painter Peter Schmidt, to co-create the Oblique Strategies deck of aphorisms: aleatory, oracular messages that appeared dependent on chance, luck, and randomness, but that in fact were based on Eno and Schmidt’s creative philosophy and work guidelines (Tamm 77-78; Sheppard 178-179; Reynolds 170). In short, Eno was engaging with the kind of reflective practices that underpin exemplary professional journalism. He was able to encode this craft and skills into a quasi-experimental method, rather than a technological solution. Journalists and practitioners who adopt Hermida’s framework could learn much from the published accounts of Eno’s practice-based research, in the context of creative projects and collaborative teams. In particular, these detail the contexts and choices of Eno’s early ambient music recordings (Sheppard 199-200); Eno’s duels with David Bowie during ‘Sense of Doubt’ for the Heroes album (Tamm 158; Sheppard 254-255); troubled collaborations with Talking Heads and David Byrne (Reynolds 165-170; Sheppard; 338-347, 353); a curatorial, mentor role on U2’s The Unforgettable Fire (Sheppard 368-369); the ‘grand, stadium scale’ experiments of U2’s 1991-93 ZooTV tour (Sheppard 404); the Zorn-like games of Bowie’s Outside album (Eno 382-389); and the ‘generative’ artwork 77 Million Paintings (Eno 330-332; Tamm 133-135; Sheppard 278-279; Eno 435). Eno is clearly a highly flexible maker and producer. 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