Academic literature on the topic 'Business forecasting'

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Journal articles on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Dave, Upendra, J. Holton Wilson, and Barry Keating. "Business Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 42, no. 3 (March 1991): 254. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2583315.

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Dave, Upendra. "Business Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 42, no. 3 (March 1991): 254. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.1991.48.

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Cox, James E. "Business forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 2, no. 3 (January 1986): 391–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(86)90061-0.

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Rozeff, Michael S. "Business forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 6, no. 4 (December 1990): 569–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(90)90042-a.

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Iyer, R., John E. Hanke, and Arthur G. Reitsch. "Business Forecasting." Statistician 38, no. 1 (1989): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2349022.

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Beaumont, Chris, J. A. Saunders, J. A. Sharp, and S. F. Witt. "Practical Business Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 38, no. 5 (May 1987): 465. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2582738.

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Beaumont, Chris. "Practical Business Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 38, no. 5 (May 1987): 465–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.1987.77.

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Anderson, Scott. "Practical Business Forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 19, no. 2 (April 2003): 330–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(03)00017-7.

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Thomson, Lydia. "Practical business forecasting." British Accounting Review 21, no. 1 (March 1989): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0890-8389(89)90085-1.

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Chatfield, Chris. "Business forecasting methods." International Journal of Forecasting 5, no. 2 (January 1989): 285–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90100-3.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Haensly, Paul J. "The Application of Statistical Classification to Business Failure Prediction." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1994. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc278187/.

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Bankruptcy is a costly event. Holders of publicly traded securities can rely on security prices to reflect their risk. Other stakeholders have no such mechanism. Hence, methods for accurately forecasting bankruptcy would be valuable to them. A large body of literature has arisen on bankruptcy forecasting with statistical classification since Beaver (1967) and Altman (1968). Reported total error rates typically are 10%-20%, suggesting that these models reveal information which otherwise is unavailable and has value after financial data is released. This conflicts with evidence on market efficiency which indicates that securities markets adjust rapidly and actually anticipate announcements of financial data. Efforts to resolve this conflict with event study methodology have run afoul of market model specification difficulties. A different approach is taken here. Most extant criticism of research design in this literature concerns inferential techniques but not sampling design. This paper attempts to resolve major sampling design issues. The most important conclusion concerns the usual choice of the individual firm as the sampling unit. While this choice is logically inconsistent with how a forecaster observes financial data over time, no evidence of bias could be found. In this paper, prediction performance is evaluated in terms of expected loss. Most authors calculate total error rates, which fail to reflect documented asymmetries in misclassification costs and prior probabilities. Expected loss overcomes this weakness and also offers a formal means to evaluate forecasts from the perspective of stakeholders other than investors. This study shows that cost of misclassifying bankruptcy must be at least an order of magnitude greater than cost of misclassifying nonbankruptcy before discriminant analysis methods have value. This conclusion follows from both sampling experiments on historical financial data and Monte Carlo experiments on simulated data. However, the Monte Carlo experiments reveal that as the cost ratio increases, robustness of linear discriminant rules improves; performance appears to depend more on the cost ratio than form of the distributions.
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DICKHUT, LENA. "BUSINESS CASE DEVELOPMENT : CATEGORIZATION AND CHALLENGES." Thesis, KTH, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-199203.

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Every new product launching industrial company faces the difficulties of forecasting future success or failure of a new product before launch. Before launch it is common to develop a business case in order to estimate future quantities and set prices. In the present paper the challenges of developing a standardized business case tool for a large industrial construction and mining company are presented. Few academic studies have been conducted on the challenges and complexities of developing business cases. The research question under which this study is done is: What are the challenges associated with developing an effective standardized business case tool for a large industrial construction and mining company? Due to the different subject areas of the business case for new product launch, the challenges are categorized by topics developed by the researcher in the course of this project: process and team, data gathering and validation, quantity forecast and price forecast. The main challenges found in these categories by the researcher are: finding and motivating experts for the project of developing a standardized business case, gathering and selecting all data necessary without including redundant data, ensuring that different potential new products can be forecasted and designing the price forecast to be profit-maximizing. Solutions to these challenges are provided in the context of a case company by using methods suggested by the academic literature and the evaluation of expert interviews inside the case company
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Koottatep, Pakawkul, and Jinqian Li. "Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36142.

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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-85).
Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal and external factors that affect the demand patterns. It has also resulted from multiple levels of hierarchy that involve different groups in the organization as well as different methods and systems. Moreover, judgments from the forecasters are critical to the accuracy of the forecasts, while the value of tweaking the forecast results is yet to be determined. In this business, the forecasters generally have a high incentive to over-forecast in order to meet the corporate goal of maximizing customer satisfaction. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the effectiveness of promotional forecasting, identify the factors contributing to forecast accuracy, and propose suggestions for improving forecasts. In light of this objective, we used WMPE and WMAPE as the measures of forecast accuracy, and conducted analysis of promotional forecast accuracy from different point of views.
(cont.) We also verified our results with regression analysis, which helped identify the significance of each forecasting attribute so as to support the promotion planning without compromising forecast accuracy. We suggest several approaches to improve forecast accuracy. First, to improve store forecasts, we recommend three models: the bias correction model, the adaptive bias correction model, and the regression model. Second, to improve replenishment forecasts, we propose a new model that combines the top-down and bottom-up approaches. Lastly, we suggest a framework for measuring accuracy that emphasizes the importance of comparing the accuracy of forecasts generated from systems and from judgments.
by Pakawkul Koottatep and Jinqian Li.
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Feng, Ning. "Essays on business cycles and macroeconomic forecasting." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2016. https://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_oa/279.

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This dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay focuses on developing a quantitative theory for a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a housing sector allowing for both contemporaneous and news shocks. The second essay is an empirical study on the macroeconomic forecasting using both structural and non-structural models. In the first essay, we develop a DSGE model with a housing sector, which incorporates both contemporaneous and news shocks to domestic and external fundamentals, to explore the kind of and the extent to which different shocks to economic fundamentals matter for driving housing market dynamics in a small open economy. The model is estimated by the Bayesian method, using data from Hong Kong. The quantitative results show that external shocks and news shocks play a significant role in this market. Contemporaneous shock to foreign housing preference, contemporaneous shock to terms of trade, and news shocks to technology in the consumption goods sector explain one-third each of the variance of housing price. Terms of trade contemporaneous shock and consumption technology news shocks also contribute 36% and 59%, respectively, to the variance in housing investment. The simulation results enable policy makers to identify the key driving forces behind the housing market dynamics and the interaction between housing market and the macroeconomy in Hong Kong. In the second essay, we compare the forecasting performance between structural and non-structural models for a small open economy. The structural model refers to the small open economy DSGE model with the housing sector in the first essay. In addition, we examine various non-structural models including both Bayesian and classical time-series methods in our forecasting exercises. We also include the information from a large-scale quarterly data series in some models using two approaches to capture the influence of fundamentals: extracting common factors by principal component analysis in a dynamic factor model (DFM), factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), and Bayesian FAVAR (BFAVAR) or Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale vector autoregression (BVAR). In this study, we forecast five key macroeconomic variables, namely, output, consumption, employment, housing price inflation, and CPI-based inflation using quarterly data. The results, based on mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of one to eight quarters ahead out-of-sample forecasts, indicate that the non-structural models outperform the structural model for all variables of interest across all horizons. Among the non-structural models, small-scale BVAR performs better with short forecasting horizons, although DFM shows a similar predictive ability. As the forecasting horizon grows, DFM tends to improve over other models and is better suited in forecasting key macroeconomic variables at longer horizons.
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Liao, Kua-ping. "Feedforward neural network forecasting model building evaluation : theory and application in business forecasting." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.310532.

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Yenilmez-Dramali, Demet. "Moderating effect of forecasting methods between forecasting criteria and export sales forecasting effectiveness : an empirical model for UK organizations." Thesis, Kingston University, 2013. http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/26591/.

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Over the last three decades important advances have been made in developing sales forecasting methods that more accurately reflect market place conditions. However, surveys of sales forecasting practice continue to report only marginal gains in sales forecasting effectiveness. This gap between theory and practice has been identified as a significant issue for sales forecasting research. The literature suggests that this gap should be addressed by examining new factors in sales forecasting. Accuracy, bias, timeliness, cost and environmental turbulence are the most studied forecasting criteria in sales forecasting effectiveness. There are some literatures which address how these factors are affected by the forecast methods the firm uses. Empirical evidence on such a role of the forecasting method is lacking, and existing literature does not take into account whether forecasting criteria's influence on export sales forecasting effectiveness vary depending on the forecasting methods used by the firm. This is the first research gap identified during the literature review. Furthermore, the role of export sales forecasting. effectiveness on export market performance have received only limited attention to date. Linking the forecasting effectiveness to the business performance was reported to be critical in evaluating and improving the firm's sales forecasting capability and sales forecasting climate. However, empirical evidence of this linkage is missing and this is the second gap this study addresses. A conceptual model is proposed and multivariate analysis technique is used to investigate the relationship between dependent (forecasting effectiveness and export performance) and independent variables (forecasting criteria, forecasting methods, managerial characteristics, organizational characteristics and export market orientation). Our finding revealed the impact of bias, timeliness and cost on forecasting effectiveness varies depending on the forecasting methods used by the firm. But no moderating impact of forecasting methods has been found for accuracy and environmental turbulence. Moreover, this study reported the linkage between forecasting effectiveness and export performance when composite forecasting method is used. Identifying the relative importance of all the factors (i.e. accuracy, bias, cost, timeliness, forecasting methods, etc) it becomes possible to set priorities directly reflecting managerial preferences for different forecast criteria. If implementation of such priorities is seen to contradict principles of good forecasting practice, action can be taken to inform managers of the potential negative consequences.
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Lannsjö, Fredrik. "Forecasting the Business Cycle using Partial Least Squares." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-151378.

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Partial Least Squares is both a regression method and a tool for variable selection, that is especially appropriate for models based on numerous (possibly correlated) variables. While being a well established modeling tool in chemometrics, this thesis adapts PLS to financial data to predict the movements of the business cycle represented by the OECD Composite Leading Indicators. High-dimensional data is used, and a model with automated variable selection through a genetic algorithm is developed to forecast different economic regions with good results in out-of-sample tests.
Partial Least Squares är både en regressionsmetod och ett verktyg för variabelselektion som är specielltlämpligt för modeller baserade på en stor mängd (möjligtvis korrelerade) variabler.Medan det är en väletablerad modelleringsmetod inom kemimetri, anpassar den häruppsatsen PLS till finansiell data för att förutspå rörelserna av konjunkturen,representerad av OECD's Composite Leading Indicator. Högdimensionella dataanvänds och en model med automatiserad variabelselektion via en genetiskalgoritm utvecklas för att göra en prognos av olika ekonomiska regioner medgoda resultat i out-of-sample-tester
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Queen, Catriona M. "Bayesian graphical forecasting models for business time series." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1991. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4321/.

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This thesis develops three new classes of Bayesian graphical models to forecast multivariate time series. Although these models were originally motivated by the need for flexible and tractable forecasting models appropriate for modelling competitive business markets, they are of theoretical interest in their own right. Multiregression dynamic models are defined to preserve certain conditional independence structures over time. Although these models are typically very non-Gaussian, it is proved that they are simple to update, amenable to practical implementation and promise more efficient identification of causal structures in a time series than has been possible in the past. Dynamic graphical models are defined for multivariate time series for which there is believed to be symmetry between certain subsets of variables and a causal driving mechanism between these subsets. They are a specific type of graphical chain model (Wermuth & Lauritzen, 1990) which are once again typically non- Gaussian. Dynamic graphical models are a combination of multiregression dynamic models and multivariate regression models (Quintana, 1985,87, Quintana & West, 1987,88) and as such, they inherit the simplicity of both these models. Partial segmentation models extend the work of Dickey et al. (1987) to the study of models with latent conditional independence structures. Conjugate Bayesian anaylses are developed for processes whose probability parameters are hypothesised to be dependent, using the fact that a certain likelihood separates given a matrix of likelihood ratios. It is shown how these processes can be represented by undirected graphs and how these help in its reparameterisation into conjugate form.
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Shirahatti, Murughendra. "Business planning and forecasting application for Synopsys, Inc." [Chico, Calif. : California State University, Chico], 2009. http://csuchico-dspace.calstate.edu/xmlui/handle/10211.4/176.

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Pacce, Matías José. "Essays on Business Cycles Fluctuations and Forecasting Methods." Doctoral thesis, Universidad de Alicante, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10045/71346.

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This doctoral dissertation proposes methodologies which, from a linear or a non-linear approach, accommodate to the information flow and can deal with a large amount of data. The empirical application of the proposed methodologies contributes to answer some of the questions that have emerged or that it has potentiated after the 2008 global crisis. Thus, essential aspects of the macroeconomic analysis are studied, like the identification and forecast of business cycles turning points, the business cycles interactions between countries or the development of tools able to forecast the evolution of key economic indicators based on new data sources, like those which emerge from search engines.
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Books on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Wilson, J. Holton. Business forecasting. Homewood, IL: Irwin, 1990.

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Gilliland, Michael, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo, eds. Business Forecasting. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119244592.

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Hanke, John E. Business forecasting. 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Prentice Hall, 1998.

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W, Wichern Dean, ed. Business forecasting. 8th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2005.

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Hanke, John E. Business forecasting. 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2009.

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Hanke, John E. Business forecasting. 4th ed. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1992.

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Hanke, John E. Business forecasting. 5th ed. EnglewoodCliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995.

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Holton, Wilson J. Business forecasting. 2nd ed. Burr Ridge, Ill: Irwin, 1994.

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Hanke, John E. Business forecasting. 3rd ed. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1989.

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1938-, Reitsch Arthur G., ed. Business forecasting. 5th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995.

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Book chapters on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Panneerselvam, R. "Forecasting." In Business Statistics Using Excel, 492–527. London: Routledge India, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781032671703-14.

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Taylor, Sonia. "Forecasting." In Business Statistics for non-mathematicians, 278–92. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-0-230-20685-4_13.

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Hyndman, Rob J. "Business Forecasting Methods." In International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, 185–87. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04898-2_156.

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Carnot, Nicolas, Vincent Koen, and Bruno Tissot. "Business Cycle Analysis." In Economic Forecasting and Policy, 24–65. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230306448_3.

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Swift, Louise. "Forecasting." In Mathematics and Statistics for Business, Management and Finance, 864–904. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-25273-2_19.

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Swift, Louise, and Federica Spiezia. "Forecasting." In Mathematics and Statistics for Business, Management and Finance, 177–80. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-14587-4_19.

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Ivanov, Dmitry, Alexander Tsipoulanidis, and Jörn Schönberger. "Demand Forecasting." In Springer Texts in Business and Economics, 301–15. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24217-0_11.

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Ivanov, Dmitry, Alexander Tsipoulanidis, and Jörn Schönberger. "Demand Forecasting." In Springer Texts in Business and Economics, 341–57. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72331-6_11.

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Ivanov, Dmitry, Alexander Tsipoulanidis, and Jörn Schönberger. "Demand Forecasting." In Springer Texts in Business and Economics, 319–33. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94313-8_11.

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Badiru, Adedeji B., Ibidapo-Obe Oye, and Babatunde J. Ayeni. "Business modeling and forecasting." In Manufacturing and Enterprise, 181–216. Boca Raton : CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, [2019] | Series: Systems innovation series: CRC Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429055928-8.

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Conference papers on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Lanzilotta, Bibiana, Gabriela Mordecki, Pablo Tapie, and Joaquín Torres. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: An Empirical Analysis for Uruguay." In International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting. Basel Switzerland: MDPI, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/engproc2023039097.

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Harrison, H. C., and Gong Qizhong. "An intelligent business forecasting system." In the 1993 ACM conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/170791.170834.

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Shnaider, E., P. Hurtado, and M. Schneider. "Expert systems for economic/business forecasting." In the 1993 ACM/SIGAPP symposium. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/162754.165215.

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Ruta, D., and B. Majeed. "Business process forecasting in telecom industry." In 2011 IEEE GCC Conference and Exhibition (GCC). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ieeegcc.2011.5752543.

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Obidike, Peter, Chima Emelle, and Rene Vlaardingerbroek. "Integrated Production Forecasting for Business Planning." In SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/172479-ms.

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Mazzetto, Silvia. "Visualization Approach To Forecasting Retail Business." In 2023 Sixth International Conference of Women in Data Science at Prince Sultan University (WiDS PSU). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wids-psu57071.2023.00015.

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Mia, Md Anisur Rahman, Mohammad Abu Yousuf, and Rupon Ghosh. "Business Forecasting System using Machine Learning Approach." In 2021 2nd International Conference on Robotics, Electrical and Signal Processing Techniques (ICREST). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icrest51555.2021.9331114.

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Tang, Zhongjun, and Jing Xiao. "Tools for a New Demand Forecasting Paradigm "Individual Demand Forecasting'." In 2009 International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering (BIFE). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/bife.2009.76.

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Maknickienė, Nijolė, and Algirdas Maknickas. "Impact of time zones on forecasting of exchange market based on distribution of expected values." In Business and Management 2016. VGTU Technika, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2016.29.

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Forecasting of chaotic changes of exchange rates usually is based on historical data and depends on the choice of time intervals. This study seeks to develop new forecasting method based on data of different time zones. This paper demonstrates how the using of London and New York divisions of the trading day allows getting additional information from predicting exchange rates. This was modelled with the help of ensemble of EVOLINO for obtaining of predictions of the distribution of expected values. The obtained results show that double forecasts evaluation reveals a possible trend in the exchange market and enriches the choice of real-time trading strategies.
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Tang, Zhongjun. "Mechanism for a New Demand Forecasting Paradigm 'Individual Demand Forecasting'." In 2010 3rd International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering (BIFE). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/bife.2010.33.

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Reports on the topic "Business forecasting"

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Orekhvo, D. O., and R. V. Khrunichev. Remote training course Distance learning course «Mathematical methods of business forecasting", training direction 38.03.05"Business Informatics». OFERNIO, June 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/ofernio.2018.23677.

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Dueker, Michael J., and Katrin Wesche. Forecasting Macro Variables with a Qual VAR Business Cycle Turning Point Index. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2001.019.

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Semerikov, Serhiy, Hanna Kucherova, Vita Los, and Dmytro Ocheretin. Neural Network Analytics and Forecasting the Country's Business Climate in Conditions of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). CEUR Workshop Proceedings, April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812//123456789/4364.

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The prospects for doing business in countries are also determined by the business confidence index. The purpose of the article is to model trends in indicators that determine the state of the business climate of countries, in particular, the period of influence of the consequences of COVID-19 is of scientific interest. The approach is based on the preliminary results of substantiating a set of indicators and applying the taxonomy method to substantiate an alternative indicator of the business climate, the advantage of which is its advanced nature. The most significant factors influencing the business climate index were identified, in particular, the annual GDP growth rate and the volume of retail sales. The similarity of the trends in the calculated and actual business climate index was obtained, the forecast values were calculated with an accuracy of 89.38%. And also, the obtained modeling results were developed by means of building and using neural networks with learning capabilities, which makes it possible to improve the quality and accuracy of the business climate index forecast up to 96.22%. It has been established that the consequences of the impact of COVID-19 are forecasting a decrease in the level of the country's business climate index in the 3rd quarter of 2020. The proposed approach to modeling the country's business climate is unified, easily applied to the macroeconomic data of various countries, demonstrates a high level of accuracy and quality of forecasting. The prospects for further research are modeling the business climate of the countries of the world in order to compare trends and levels, as well as their changes under the influence of quarantine restrictions.
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Kim, Eundeok. A Service-Learning Project with a Local Apparel Business Integrated into Trend Analysis and Forecasting Class. Ames: Iowa State University, Digital Repository, November 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.31274/itaa_proceedings-180814-78.

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Semerikov, Serhiy, Hanna Kucherova, and Dmytro Ocheretin. Neural Network Analytics and Forecasting the Country's Business Climate in Conditions of the Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19). Stylos, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4133.

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The paper proposes an approach to modeling the business climate of the country, which is based on the principles of information transparency, and makes it possible to assess the development trends of the studied indicator in conditions of the COVID-19. This approach has been tested on the example of Ukraine. The results obtained make it possible to analyze the cyclical development of the country's economy with high accuracy and reliability even under quarantine restrictions.
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Volkova, Nataliia P., Nina O. Rizun, and Maryna V. Nehrey. Data science: opportunities to transform education. [б. в.], September 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/3241.

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The article concerns the issue of data science tools implementation, including the text mining and natural language processing algorithms for increasing the value of high education for development modern and technologically flexible society. Data science is the field of study that involves tools, algorithms, and knowledge of math and statistics to discover knowledge from the raw data. Data science is developing fast and penetrating all spheres of life. More people understand the importance of the science of data and the need for implementation in everyday life. Data science is used in business for business analytics and production, in sales for offerings and, for sales forecasting, in marketing for customizing customers, and recommendations on purchasing, digital marketing, in banking and insurance for risk assessment, fraud detection, scoring, and in medicine for disease forecasting, process automation and patient health monitoring, in tourism in the field of price analysis, flight safety, opinion mining etc. However, data science applications in education have been relatively limited, and many opportunities for advancing the fields still unexplored.
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Wendy, Disch. ESRI Nowcast October 2022. ESRI, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/ir1.

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Using the ESRI Nowcasting model currently employed to support the forecasting exercise in the Quarterly Economic Commentary, we will now update our forecast of modified domestic demand (MDD) on a monthly basis. Our nowcast estimates that MDD is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent in Q3 2022 on an annual basis, indicating some moderation from its growth of 10.2 per cent per annum in Q2 2022. On a monthly basis, MDD is estimated to be 4.0 per cent above its level from August 2021. Strong tax receipts, continued strength in the labour market and growth in industrial production are all contributing to growth. However, continued uncertainty in the global economy and elevated inflation rates have contributed to a decline in survey indicators, such as business and consumer sentiment, as well as slowdowns in retail sales. While growth of 4.1 per cent is strong on a historical basis, it is clear that MDD is moderating considerably from its peak of 14 per cent in February 2022.
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Oliveira, Lucas Gabriel Martins de. Which One Predicts Better?: Comparing Different GDP Nowcasting Methods Using Brazilian Data. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0005004.

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The objective of this paper is to develop a basic framework for the implementation of a GDP nowcasting strategy using Brazilian data. Our goal is to identify a scalable strategy that allows us to project the Brazilian GDP in real time at any point during the current quarter. In the paper we detail the survey of classical techniques and also of techniques usually known by market practitioners as "machine learning methods". We survey the literature since the first work on estimating business cycles and document the evolution of this literature until the insertion of machine learning methods. Additionally, we perform backtesting exercises, estimate several candidate models for GDP nowcasting. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting power of all models against a naive model and a market expectations model. We demonstrate that a combination of machine learning models based on the distance of forecasts to the average market expectations defeats the fully informed market expectations, while the same is not possible for selected classical nowcasting models.
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Konstantinou, Theodora, Donghui Chen, Konstantinos Flaris, Kyubyung Kang, Dan Daehyun Koo, Jonathon Sinton, Konstantina Gkritza, and Samuel Labi. A Strategic Assessment of Needs and Opportunities for the Wider Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Indiana. Purdue University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317376.

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The primary objective of this study was to assess the challenges and opportunities associated with the provision of appropriate infrastructure to support electric vehicle (EV) operations and electrification across Indiana. A secondary objective of this study was to develop a strategic plan for INDOT that outlines new business opportunities for developing EV charging stations. To achieve these objectives, the project team assessed current and emerging trends in EV operations, particularly EV charging infrastructure and EV demand forecasting. They also examined opportunities for the strategic deployment of EV charging stations by identifying EV infrastructure deficit areas; investigated the impact of EV adoption on highway revenue and the feasibility of new revenue structures; and evaluated strategic partnerships and business models. The agent-based simulation model developed for future long distance EV trip scenarios enables INDOT to identify EV energy deficient areas for current and future energy charging demand scenarios, and it can support Indiana’s strategic plans for EV charging infrastructure development. The results of the revenue impact analysis can inform INDOT’s revenue model. The estimations of the recovery EV fee, the VMT fee, and pay-as-you-charge fee that break-even the fuel tax revenue loss can be used by INDOT in pilot programs to capture users’ perspectives and estimate appropriate fee rates and structures. The insights obtained from the stakeholder interviews can be used to enhance preparedness for increasing EV adoption rates across vehicle classes and to strengthen the engagement of different entities in the provision of charging infrastructure.
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Ryu, Kirak, and Hanna Moon. Skills for Work: Knowledge Sharing Forum on Development Experiences: Comparative Experiences of Korea and Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, June 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0007000.

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This study investigates Korea's success in the area of skills development and what role the Korean government played during the stages of Korean economic development since the 1960s. Major achievements connected with the Korean skills development system over the last few decades are described and evaluated. However, it is worth noting that the Korean system has confronted challenges, arising from rapid changes in the economic and social environment that have put the sustainability of its current skills development system into question. In this regard, this study also analyzes the direction the Korean skills development system is moving toward and makes policy recommendations concerning how current challenges may be better handled.In doing so, the notion of lifelong skills development is derived. This notion signals a shift away from a government-led, supply driven model towards a locally based, demand-driven model, in order to align the supply of education and training programs with the needs of local business, and the improved effectiveness of Korea's skills development system over the coming years. The Korean government has played a key role in establishing the skills development system over the last few decades. Government intervention in skills development has addressed both the public and private sector. In the public sector, government initiatives established vocational education and training institutions in response to rising demand for skills, and according to economic development strategy. In the private sector, government legislation established regulations and institutions that incentivized private employer investment in in-plant training by providing financial support (e.g., levy-exemption) until the late 1990s, with the levygrant system under the Employment Insurance Act effective since 1995. These measures helped employers to bear costs related to training prospective and existing employees. Additionally, national qualification systems helped job seekers to undertake vocational training, which was in high demand throughout the labor market. This paper briefly describes challenges and concerns connected with establishing a lifelong skills development system in Korea. The analysis will focus on how the existing government-led VET system may be transformed into a public-private partnership based model that provides better VET programs. Additionally, the VET system needs to foster lifelong employment or employability rather than lifelong jobs, which was previously the cornerstone of the Korean employment system. Regarding career development, policy intervention needs to disestablish the "monorail" career trajectory of school-work-retirement, in favor of diversified careers by establishing flexible and competency-based qualification systems. This paper also describes some examples of instances of application of the lifelong skills development system in Korea. In-depth case studies are carried out regarding the development and application of National Competency Standards, the local-industry tailored skills development system, and reform of secondary vocational education focused on specialized vocational and Meister Schools in Korea. However, the Korean central government must still perform a significant role in managing and monitoring skills development. It should continue to use policy to foster public-private partnership in skills development, as local municipalities and sectoral stakeholders are yet to develop their own capabilities in this area. In addition, National Competency Standards (NCS) and regional Human Resources Development (HRD) committees need to further develop their roles and functions in order to better meet the diversified demands of business and employees and adapt to rapid technological and organizational changes. To further expedite the fine-tuning of skill policy in rapidly changing markets, forecasting skill demand and supply requires further attention, although it is becoming incr
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