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1
Funk, Mark. "Business cycles and research investment." Applied Economics 38, no. 15 (August 20, 2006): 1775–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500427098.
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SPYCHAŁA, Joanna. "Regional business cycles in Poland." Scientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology. Organization and Management Series 2020, no. 146 (2020): 441–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.29119/1641-3466.2020.146.31.
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Purpose: The main goal of the considerations presented hereinbelow is a presentation of the course of action as well as an analysis of crucial features of cyclical fluctuations differentiated as entities in the Polish economy as well as in all provinces in the period of the first quarter of 2005 until the second quarter of 2019 based on the rate of the sold production of industry. Design/methodology/approach: A share of the respective regions in the structure of the sold production of industry was assessed. Finally, an attempt of assessing the rate of convergence in terms of morphology of a national chain with time chains of the respective regions was undertaken. In the thesis, a hypothesis is being stated that the most synchronised with the cycle of Poland are regions having the biggest share in the sold production of industry. Methodological bases of the research process as well as an empirical assessment of the regional business cycles in Poland were preceded by theoretical analyses concerning the notion, the core as well as the morphological features of the regional business fluctuations. Findings: Making an assessment of the progression of business cycle fluctuations of the economy of Poland as a whole as well as business cycle fluctuations of Polish provinces in the period between the first quarter 2005 and the second quarter of 2019, one may conclude the progression is not uniform. The variation depends to a large extent on the specificity of development of each region. Provinces which have a lower share in the national structure of the sold production of industry demonstrate higher sensitivity to economic shocks. The highest degree of compliance with the national cycle has been demonstrated in provinces with the highest rate of share in the structure of the sold production of industry. Research limitations/implications: The conducted research, as well as the obtained results might thus be a basis for taking up more extensive analyses in that field, comprising a discussion on the remaining morphological features of business cycles. Originality/value: Determining the course of cyclical fluctuations in Poland as well as in its respective provinces has been made.
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McCraw, Thomas K. "Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History." Business History Review 80, no. 2 (2006): 231–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007680500035479.
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Business Cycles was Joseph Schumpeter's least successful book, measured by its professed aims and several other yardsticks. Yet the book has two vital aspects that have largely been overlooked. First, the prodigious research that went into its writing caused a significant change in Schumpeter's thinking about capitalism. It moved him to a more historical and empirical approach that shaped nearly all his subsequent work. And second, much of the book constitutes a preview of modern, rigorous business history. This article explores both of these elements—not in the spirit of rescuing a neglected classic, because the book is not a classic. Instead, Business Cycles is a noble failure that paid unexpected dividends both to the author and to scholarship.
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Plosser, Charles I. "Understanding Real Business Cycles." Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, no. 3 (August 1, 1989): 51–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.3.3.51.
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This brief essay is intended to provide readers with an introduction to the real business cycle approach to business fluctuations. It discusses the basic real business cycle framework; economic growth and business cycles; real business cycles and the 1954–1985 U.S. economy; government policies and suboptimal equilibrium; and the real business cycle research agenda. An appendix presents a more technical summary of the basic neoclassical model presented in the paper.
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Comin, Diego, and Mark Gertler. "Medium-Term Business Cycles." American Economic Review 96, no. 3 (May 1, 2006): 523–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.3.523.
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Over the postwar period, many industrialized countries have experienced significant medium-frequency oscillations between periods of robust growth versus relative stagnation. Conventional business cycle filters, however, tend to sweep these oscillations into the trend. In this paper we explore whether they may, instead, reflect a persistent response of economic activity to the high-frequency fluctuations normally associated with the cycle. We define as the medium-term cycle the sum of the high- and medium-frequency variation in the data, and then show that these kinds of fluctuations are substantially more volatile and persistent than are the conventional measures. These fluctuations, further, feature significant procyclical movements in both embodied and disembodied technological change, and research and development (R&D), as well as the efficiency and intensity of resource utilization. We then develop a model of medium-term business cycles. A virtue of the framework is that, in addition to offering a unified approach to explaining the high- and medium-frequency variation in the data, it fully endogenizes the movements in productivity that appear central to the persistence of these fluctuations. For comparison, we also explore how well an exogenous productivity model can explain the facts.
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Duarte, Jefferson, and Nishad Kapadia. "Davids, Goliaths, and Business Cycles." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 52, no. 6 (December 2017): 2429–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109017000783.
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We show that a simple, intuitive variable, Goliath versus David (GVD), reflects time variation in discount rates related to changes in aggregate business conditions. GVD is the annual change in the weight of the largest 250 firms in the aggregate stock market and is motivated by research that shows that small firms are more severely impacted than large firms by economic shocks due to differences in access to external finance. We find that GVD is the best single predictor of out-of-sample market returns among traditional predictors, predicting quarterly market returns with an out-of-sampleR2of 6.3% in the 1976–2011 evaluation period.
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Pandey, Radhika, Ila Patnaik, and Ajay Shah. "Dating business cycles in India." Indian Growth and Development Review 10, no. 1 (April 10, 2017): 32–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/igdr-02-2017-0013.
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Purpose This paper aims to present a chronology of Indian business cycles in the post-reform period. In India, earlier, macroeconomic shocks were about droughts and oil prices. Economic reforms have led to an interplay of a market economy, financial globalisation and decisions of private firms to undertake investment and hold inventory. This has changed the working of the business cycle and has raised concerns about business-cycle stabilisation. In the backdrop of these developments, the macroeconomics research agenda requires foundations of measurement about business-cycle phenomena. One element of this is the identification of dates of business-cycle turning points. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the growth-cycle approach to present the chronology of business cycles. The paper uses the Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter to extract the cyclical component and shows the robustness of the findings to the contemporary methods of cycle extraction. It then applies the Bry–Boschan algorithm to identify the dates of peaks and troughs. Findings The paper finds three periods of recession. The first recession was from 1999-Q4 to 2003-Q1; the second recession was from 2007-Q2 to 2009-Q3; and the third recession ran from 2011-Q2 till 2012-Q4. These results are robust to the choice of filter and to the choice of the business-cycle indicator. These dates suggest that, on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters in length and recessions run for 9 quarters. The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles. Originality/value Dates of business-cycle turning points are a critical input for academic and policy work in macroeconomics. The paper offers robust estimation of the business-cycle turning points in the post-reform period using contemporary techniques of cycle extraction. This work helps lay the foundations for downstream macroeconomics research by academicians and policymakers.
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Puu, Tönu. "Order and disorder in business cycles." Annals of Operations Research 37, no. 1 (December 1992): 169–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02071055.
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Liow, Kim Hiang. "Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles." Journal of European Real Estate Research 9, no. 2 (August 1, 2016): 123–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-05-2015-0024.
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Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.
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Nuño, Galo. "Optimal research and development and the cost of business cycles." Journal of Economic Growth 16, no. 3 (April 26, 2011): 257–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9063-4.
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Kregždė, Arvydas. "BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONISATIONS IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES." Business, Management and Education 18, no. 1 (April 30, 2020): 127–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bme.2020.12254.
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Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
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Rafferty, Matthew. "Do Business Cycles Alter the Composition of Research and Development Expenditures?" Contemporary Economic Policy 21, no. 3 (July 2003): 394–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cep/byg020.
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Tombs, Steve. "Research Note: Safety, Statistics and Business Cycles: A Response to Nichols." Sociological Review 40, no. 1 (February 1992): 132–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954x.1992.tb02948.x.
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This article considers three criticisms made by Nichols of my article on ‘industrial injuries in British manufacturing’. First, I argue that, notwithstanding recognised problems with data which include ‘minor’ accidents, this should not be rejected. I then question the reliability of the alternative data used by Nichols, namely that related to fatalities in British manufacturing. Second, I show that Nichols' claim that accident rates were increasing rather than decreasing in the years 1975–1979 can only be sustained if one shifts the years within which the trend is considered, and ignores other evidence to the effect that the latter part of the seventies witnessed a continuation of a long-term decline in accident rates in British manufacturing industries. Finally, in response to the charge that I misled readers in my original article, I note how Nichols' argument was indeed one that prioritised ‘business cycles’; further, I indicate that Nichols has himself engaged in a highly focused reading of my earlier article.
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Suzuki, Motoshi. "Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind." American Political Science Review 86, no. 4 (December 1992): 989–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1964350.
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Numerous studies have sought to discover political business cycles in macroeconomic variables. Although voters' subjective economic expectations have been shown to influence their electoral decisions, no existing research has attempted to uncover cyclical patterns in citizens' economic expectations. Using survey data, I seek to determine whether expectations shift to benefit the incumbent president's electoral interest. The analyses show that the percentage of the public predicting an economic upturn increases before a presidential election. One explanation for the findings is that voters might extrapolate cyclical expectations from macroeconomic conditions that contain election-driven cycles. Yet the analyses show that expectational cycles still appear when the macroeconomic conditions are held constant. I conclude by drawing an explanation without recourse to macroeconomic cycles.
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Zinser, Brian, and Gary Brunswick. "Introductory Business Textbook Revision Cycles: Are They Getting Shorter?" American Journal of Business Education (AJBE) 3, no. 12 (December 1, 2010): 41–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/ajbe.v3i12.963.
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The rate of textbook revision cycles is examined in light of the recent trend towards more rapid revisions (and adoptions of textbooks). The authors conduct background research to better understand the context for textbook revision cycles and the environmental forces that have been influencing what appears to be more rapid textbook revisions. A study methodology is designed, data are collected and analyzed, and the results are reported, eventually supporting the contention that textbook revision cycles are indeed becoming more frequent. The managerial implications of the findings are discussed, along with future areas for research.
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Lambert, Susan, and Marco Montemari. "Business Model Research: From Concepts to Theories." International Journal of Business and Management 12, no. 11 (October 18, 2017): 41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v12n11p41.
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The purpose of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it provides business model researchers with a structured analysis of the research that is required to enable business model theories to be developed. A schema for analyzing existing research and for discerning the research required to move towards business model theory building is proposed. The importance of conceptual research along with deductive and inductive empirical research is emphasized. Secondly, the extant business model literature is analyzed according to the research schema to highlight current gaps in the research and the progress being made towards theorization. Thirdly, opportunities for future research are identified and thematically categorized to encourage progressive cycles of conceptual-deductive-inductive research and ultimately, theorizing. The need for business model theory building, both in relation to the business model concept per se and concerning the relationships between business models and other phenomena, is the basis of this article.
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Stolbov, M. "The Evolution of Monetary Theories of Business Cycles." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 7 (July 20, 2009): 119–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2009-7-119-131.
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The article deals with the most influential monetary theories of business cycles, ranging from R. Hawtrey and F. Hayeks descriptive models based on credit cycles to the financial accelerator concept worked out by B. Bernanke. The prerequisites, methodology and conclusions of the theories are analyzed in the context of broad research programs of scientific schools and economists who elaborated these concepts. The competition and convergence between conflicting monetary theories of business cycles are also described.
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Bramson, Michael, and Victor Zarnowitz. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 44, no. 11 (November 1993): 1162. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2583878.
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Bramson, Michael. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting." Journal of the Operational Research Society 44, no. 11 (November 1993): 1162–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.1993.189.
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Beck, Krzysztof. "Application of filters to analysis of business cycles and business cycle synchronization of Poland with European countries." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 62, no. 10 (October 30, 2017): 5–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.1053.
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The aim of this paper is to present the importance of business cycle synchronization between Poland and other European countries. The Hodrick- Prescott and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters were used in the research. They were applied to extract cyclical components from quarterly time series of real GDP of 33 European countries basing on the Eurostat’s quarterly data on nominal GDP and price level in the years 2002—2016. The application of filters proved that, in case of some countries (e.g. Greece), the economic crisis led not only to a drop of GDP but also to a break in the trend. Moreover, the results indicate that most European countries overcame the crisis at the end of 2015. The business cycle synchronization of Poland with euro area countries is slowly increasing.
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Beck, John H. "Voting Cycles in Business Curriculum Reform, a Note." American Economist 41, no. 1 (March 1997): 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943459704100109.
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The theoretical potential for voting cycles is well known, but the empirical frequency of its occurrence is still a topic for research. This paper presents a case study of the occurrence of voting cycles in business school curriculum reform. Three separate decisions are analyzed: (1) addition of a service requirement, (2) additions to the business core, and (3) changes in the nature of majors/“concentrations.” A voting cycle was found in (2) but not (1) or (3). This result is consistent with theoretical analyses finding that cycles are more likely when there are more alternatives to be considered and when there is less similarity in individual preferences.
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Olkhov, Victor. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles." ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives 8, no. 1 (2019): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.35944/jofrp.2019.8.1.001.
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Problem/Relevance - This paper presents new description of the business cycles that for decades remain as relevant and important economic problem. Research Objective/Questions - We propose that econometrics can provide sufficient data for assessments of risk ratings for almost all economic agents. We use risk ratings as coordinates of agents and show that the business cycles are consequences of collective change of risk coordinates of agents and their financial variables. Methodology - We aggregate similar financial variables of agents and define macro variables as functions on economic space. Economic and financial transactions between agents are the only tools that change their extensive variables. We aggregate similar transactions between agents with risk coordinates x and y and define macro transactions as functions of x and y. We derive economic equations that describe evolution of macro transactions and hence describe evolution of macro variables. Major Findings - As example we study simple model that describes interactions between Credits transactions from Creditors at x to Borrowers at y and Loan-Repayment transactions that describe refunds from Borrowers at y to Creditors at x. We show that collective motions of Creditors and Borrowers from safer to risky area and back on economic space induce frequencies of macroeconomic Credit cycles. Implications – Our model can improve forecasting of the business cycles and help increase economic sustainability and financial policy-making. That requires development of risk ratings methodologies and corporate accounting procedures that should correspond each other to enable risk assessments of economic agents.
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Murphy, Ryan H. "Economic freedom variables endogenous to business cycles." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 12, no. 1 (June 19, 2019): 65–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2019-0030.
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Purpose A large empirical literature has found positive effects of economic freedom on economic outcomes, such as output and per capita growth. However, several variables in the index are very likely to decline in conjunction with recessions. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether, in the absence of these variable, whether the positive relationship between economic freedom and economic output remains. Design/methodology/approach This paper makes use of a dynamic panel to compare the performance of economic freedom with and without variables endogenous to business cycles, which pertain to levels of government spending, rates of inflation, government borrowing and interest rates. Findings Two specifications fall in their statistical significance from the 1 to the 10 per cent level when variables relating to inflation are omitted. The worst case considered finds one specification size of the effect is still 66.3 per cent of the effect size of the standard measure of economic freedom. Practical implications These findings are consistent with this kind of endogeneity being a minor problem with the data set when imperfect identification strategies are used, but the issue should be strongly considered when business cycles are pertinent to a research question that makes use of economic freedom data. Originality/value This paper contributes to the small literature focused on the robustness of the effect of economic freedom on output, while raising a specific concern that has not yet been explicitly addressed.
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Οικονόμου, Γιώργος, and Μανώλης Ασημακόπουλος. "Regions and business cycles’ synchronization: Aspects, trends and perspectives." Region & Periphery, no. 3 (May 1, 2013): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/rp.18897.
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Τhe proposed article aims to capture the potential of the Greek Regions, in terms of their contribution to the national product, and to present the regional business cycles of the country as well. The key research question is the investigation of the existence of synchronization between regional business cycles on the one hand with the national cycle and the corresponding Attica’s cycle on the other, over a certain period of time (1970 to 2010). While the key challenge of regional policy is the regional convergence and the balanced regional development, there is evidence based on the regional gross domestic product trend, which reveal a different aspect. Individual regional cycles present asymmetric economic fl uctuations compared to the national and the Attica’s cycles, implying divergence for considerable periods of time. Evidence of business cycles synchronization appear for all thirteen Regions in the early 1970s and after the years 2005-2006, coinciding with aspects of the economic contraction that began to emerge progressively at that time.
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Carlston, Benjamin. "Can stock market liquidity and volatility predict business cycles?" Studies in Economics and Finance 35, no. 1 (March 5, 2018): 81–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-05-2016-0131.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and business cycles by using information from both liquidity and volatility measures. Design/methodology/approach The paper estimates liquidity and volatility measures from over 5,000 NYSE rms and extracts a common factor, which the paper calls uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to determine the ability of the uncertainty factor to predict growth in real GDP, industrial production, consumer price index, real consumption and changes in real investment. Findings The paper finds that on average, positive shocks to the uncertainty factor occur in the quarters preceding and at the beginning of a recession. During the quarters toward the end of recessions, there are negative shocks to uncertainty on average. Originality/value Previous research has explored using either liquidity or volatility to forecast economic activity. The paper bridges the two branches of research and finds a link to real GDP growth and business cycles.
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Dinan, Atika, Haryo Kuncoro W., and Dicky Iranto. "Analisis Perdagangan Internasional Terhadap Siklus Bisnis di ASEAN-5 Periode 1999-2014." Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Dan Bisnis (JPEB) 5, no. 2 (October 18, 2017): 126–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.21009/jpeb.005.2.1.
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This research is aimed to analyze the effects of International Trade to Business Cycle in ASEAN-5. The data used in this research are the panel data in period of 1999 – 2014 and in five country in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). The The technique of data analysis in this research is Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR). Based on BVAR, the output has indicated the Openness to Trade and dummy Crisis are positively and significantly affected business cycles in ASEAN-5, and Intra Industry Trade is not affected to business cycles in ASEAN-5.
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List, Dennis. "Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives." Futures 38, no. 6 (August 2006): 673–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.10.001.
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Mian, Atif, and Amir Sufi. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel." Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 3 (August 1, 2018): 31–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.31.
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What is the role of the financial sector in explaining business cycles? This question is as old as the field of macroeconomics, and an extensive body of research conducted since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 has offered new answers. The specific idea put forward in this article is that expansions in credit supply, operating primarily through household demand, have been an important driver of business cycles. We call this the credit-driven household demand channel. While this channel helps explain the recent global recession, it also describes economic cycles in many countries over the past 40 years.
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Suguri Motoki, Fabio Yoshio, and Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez. "Firm Performance and Business Cycles: Implications for Managerial Accountability." Applied Finance and Accounting 1, no. 1 (January 26, 2015): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/afa.v1i1.647.
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This study explores the relationship between firm performance and business cycles. These cycles are deviations from the trend of an economy-wide variable, in our case, GDP. Using a sample of Brazilian listed firms and accounting measures of performance, we find a generally positive contemporaneous relationship between the cycle and firm performance. Results also indicate that different industries show distinct relationships. This research presents a novel approach by linking firm performance from several industries to business cycles, indicating that managerial effort may be less determinant of firm performance than what is generally accepted. Our findings have potential implications for the design of more efficient compensation packages and to the study of managerial self-attributed performance.
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Škare, Marinko, and Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "THE SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND BUSINESS CYCLES: A CROSS SPECTRAL ANALYSIS VIEW." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 26, no. 4 (May 26, 2020): 907–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12567.
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Our study bridges the gap between in previous research on the synchronization between financial and business cycles over a long period. Using the data for the UK from 1270 to 2016 we analyze the synchronization between financial and business cycles using spectral Granger causality (Breitung & Candelon, 2006). Our paper brings several important findings to the discussion on the financial and business cycle link. Our paper is the first one (to the best of our knowledge) that use data over a long period spanning several centuries. We use spectral analysis and advanced spectral analysis (SSA) and (MSSA) to study the relationship between financial and business cycles in the long run. Paper results show financial and business cycles series moves along over the medium-term spectrum. We find a strong link between the cyclical component in the output (real GDP series) and the cyclical component in the financial series (housing price, credit).
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Luo, Hong Wei, and Xiao Shuang Yuan. "The Research of Synchronization of China-US Economic Cycle." Advanced Materials Research 282-283 (July 2011): 295–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.282-283.295.
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The process of integration in the global economy driven by foreign business cycle fluctuations on China's economy has become increasingly evident. United States as the world's largest economy, the world economy has a significant impact, while the United States is China's most important trading partner, the most important foreign export market. From the close trade links between the two countries on the run, U.S. economic growth has an important role in China's economic development. Articles by examined the 1979-2010 China-US previous years, the operation of law of economic cycles and volatility characteristics of China and the U.S. business cycle synchronization features. Came to the conclusion, fluctuations in business cycle synchronization between the two countries occurred mainly after 2000 results.
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Skare, Marinko, and Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń. "Tracking financial cycles in ten transitional economies 2005–2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) techniques." Equilibrium 14, no. 1 (March 31, 2019): 7–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2019.001.
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Research background: Financial cycles are behind many deep financial crises and it closely connects them with the business cycles, showing long memory properties and effects. Being closely connected with the business cycles, we must first explore the true nature of the financial cycles to understand the nature of the business cycles. Financial cycles are real, they have long memory properties and long-lasting effects on the economy.
Purpose of the article: This study investigates the use of (SSA) in tracking and monitoring financial cycles focusing on ten (10) transitional economies 2005–2018.
Methods: Singular spectrum analysis isolate significant oscillatory patterns (cycles) on housing markets with an average 4-years length. We isolate credit cycles just for Bulgaria, implying long memory properties of the cycles since this study investigated medium term (2–5 years) oscillations.
Findings & Value added: The results prove the importance and advantages of using (SSA) in the study of financial cycles attempting to reveal the true nature of financial cycles as the principal component behind business cycles. Financial cycles show longer oscillations in the credit and property price series, which can explain 37.7%–49.9% of the variance of the total financial cycle fluctuations. Study results are of practical importance, particularly to policy-makers and practitioners in former transitional economies being vulnerable to adverse shocks on the financial markets. The results should assist policy-makers and financial practitioners in building and maintaining a sound financial policy needed to avoid future financial “bubbles”.
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Bidabad, Bijan. "USA Income Distribution Counter-Business-Cyclical Trend." American Finance & Banking Review 4, no. 2 (July 6, 2019): 11–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v4i2.346.
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In this paper, the L1 norm of continuous functions and corresponding continuous estimation of regression parameters are defined. The continuous L1 norm estimation problems of linear one and two parameters models are solved. We proceed to use the functional form and parameters of the probability distribution function of income to exactly determine the L1 norm approximation of the corresponding Lorenz curve of the statistical population under consideration. U.S. economic data used to estimate income distribution. An interesting finding of these calculations is that the distribution of income obeys counter-wise business cycles fluctuations. This finding is a new area for research in the realm of the theory and application of income distribution and business cycles interrelationship.
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Jędruchniewicz, Andrzej, Jan-Philipp Huchtemann, Philipp Welter, Eike Nordmeyer, Achim Spiller, and Dominic Lemken. "Business Cycle in Agriculture in Poland." German Journal of Agricultural Economics 69, no. 3 (September 1, 2020): 219–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.30430/69.2020.3.219-230.
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The main objective of the study was to characterize the business cycle and its particular phases in Polish agriculture and compare with the features of the cycle occurring in theory. The research for the years 2001-2015 which was based on annual real changes in final output allowed to identify three full cycles in Polish agriculture: 1) 2001-2006; 2) 2007-2010; 3) 2011-2015. The analysis of fluctuations showed that all cycles lasted from 4 to 6 years. Growth phases took from 2 to 4 years, and all downward ones lasted 2 years. The amplitudes of these phases were similar. There were both turning points and turning zones in the cycles. The analysis of accumulated dynamics of production, income, prices and investments in particular phases of the business cycle in Polish agriculture shows that in each growth phase all categories have increased. In almost all cycles, the dynamics of these categories in the growth phase was greater than the changes during the downturn. According to the theory of the classical cycle, the value of production as well as agricultural prices changed the most. They had negative dynamics in almost every downward phase. On the other hand, the dynamics of agricultural incomes was positive in all downward phases. Therefore, changes in this category in most cases had the features of the modern cycle. Changes in investments in the downward phases were diversified. The analysis of dynamics indicates that agricultural income and investments in Poland was also affected by the Common Agricultural Policy.
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Lami, Endrit, Holger Kächelein, and Drini Imami. "A new view into political business cycles: Household behaviour in Albania." Acta Oeconomica 64, Supplement-1 (December 1, 2014): 201–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.64.2014.s1.8.
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Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and publications on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aimed at analysing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, with the intention of impressing potential voters. Previous research on PBC in Albania reveals clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections, but no significant changes in GDP and inflation as theory predicts. One possible explanation of this result could be economic agents’ expectations, which is the subject of this paper. We analyse consumers’ expectations before elections, the main factors underlying expectations, and the way in which these expectations influence their behaviour toward spending, and consequently the macroeconomic outcomes, deploying standard econometric methods widely applied in PBC related research. According to our research results, households’ consumption spending decreases before elections because of the higher uncertainty about their future economic situation due to the highly politicised public employment.
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Lestari, Etty Puji. "INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 12, no. 2 (December 1, 2011): 163. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v12i2.191.
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The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.
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Mouatt, Simon. "Credit cycles: freewheeling, driving or driven?" International Journal of Social Economics 42, no. 7 (July 13, 2015): 629–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-01-2014-0002.
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Purpose – The discourse on credit cycles has been reinvigorated following the global crisis. The purpose of this paper is to contrast the positions of mainstream, Marxist, Austrian and post-Keynesian (PK) schools of thought on these matters. It is posited that most notions underplay the significance of real economy factors in shaping the fluctuations of credit levels and relations. It is argued these ideas are best illustrated by Marx (as interpreted by the Temporal Single System Interpretation) and tendency for the profit rate to fall with accumulation. Empirical evidence on the UK profit rate is provided as supporting evidence. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores the theoretical work on credit and business cycles from the relevant schools of thought and contrasts them. The aim is to consider which approach best describes the reality. Empirical work on the profit rate provides supporting evidence. Findings – It is argued that the mainstream view of monetary neutrality is an insufficient explanation of the financial reality associated with credit and business cycles. Instead, it is posited that the PK approach, which emphasizes productive and financial factors, is more preferable. This contrasts with the usual singular financialization commentary that is used to describe the financial crisis and real economy stagnation that followed. It is argued that Marx’s notion of falling profit and its ramifications best explain the reality of both the credit and business cycle. This is supported by the evidence. Research limitations/implications – It is problematic to calculate a Marxian rate of profit given the lack of suitable reported statistics. The research illustrates the significance of productive factors, especially the tendency for the profit rate to fall, in driving business cycles. There are, therefore, implications for government fiscal/monetary/industrial policies to reflect these factors when seeking to influence the business cycle. Practical implications – Policies that are designed to target levels of profitability are likely to be beneficial for capitalist sustainability. Social implications – The focus on profitability in the paper informs individuals working in business organizations of some of the imperatives facing corporations in a modern competitive environment. Originality/value – Whether financial factors drive the business cycle, or are themselves driven by it, is an important question given that policy prescriptions will differ depending on the answer. The recent financialization commentary, for instance, suggests that better regulation or reform of the financial sector will preclude unstable business cycles. The paper argues, in contrast, that the cause of the credit instability is rooted in production (following Marx) and that, therefore, a more production-focused policy response is required whilst recognizing the instabilities of the credit system. This latter point has a measure of originality in the current discourse.
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Ruddock, Les, Amir Kheir, and Steven Ruddock. "UK CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES’ STRATEGIES IN THE FACE OF BUSINESS CYCLES." International Journal of Strategic Property Management 18, no. 3 (September 18, 2014): 225–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1648715x.2014.927400.
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Firms in the construction industry have always had to deal with the challenges of the economic cycle and develop strategies to deal with the resulting fluctuations in their business environment. In the context of the 2008–2011 double-dip recession in the UK, the results of a survey targeting the top one hundred construction companies in the UK are reported here. This research is particularly intended to assess whether the strategies of large companies in the construction sector, when faced with the issues associated with the variation in the economic cycle, have changed since the previous business cycle (i.e. the 1986–1990 boom followed by the 1990–1991 recession). The survey reveals the challenges that companies have faced, reports on company behaviour and on the policies adopted. While there are many similarities between policies adopted during the recessionary periods of the two cycles, the research found notable changes in attitudes towards diversification, human resource management and price bidding.
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Albalivada, Sri Pavani, and B. Sarath Chaitanya. "A Study on “Technology Life Cycle in Business and its Management”." Shanlax International Journal of Management 9, S1-Mar (March 19, 2022): 56–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/management.v9is1-mar.4892.
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In Technology there are many life cycles from various aspects and classified into different categories. Product life cycle is simple and basic life cycle for any product. This is the base for development of many other life cycles. But in literature different life cycles like Product life cycle, Technology life cycleand Industry lifecycles are often considered as interchangeable concepts though it is inappropriate. So, this paper enlightens the differences between these concepts. This study tries to understand some theoretical insight of Technology life cycle. This Study also focuses on different steps for effective technology Life cycle in Business and its Management. This research paper acts as a unique source for technology life cycle and management.
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Simonovska, Ina, and Ludvig Söderling. "BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING FOR CHILE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 19, no. 5 (February 6, 2014): 990–1022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100513000679.
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We investigate sources of economic fluctuations in Chile during 1998–2007 within the framework of a standard neoclassical growth model with time-varying frictions (wedges). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment, and government/trade wedges for business cycles in Chile. The purpose of this exercise is twofold: (i) focusing the policy discussion on the most important wedges in the economy and (ii) identifying which broad class of models would present fruitful avenues for further research. We find that different wedges have played different roles during our studied period, but that the efficiency, labor, and investment wedges have had the greatest impact. We also compare our results with existing studies on emerging and developed economies.
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Ling, Pang Wen. "The Stock Price Forecasting Comparative Research of the Use of Fractal Theory at Taiwan Traditional Industry and Technology Industry." Applied Mechanics and Materials 274 (January 2013): 53–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.274.53.
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As natural phenomena, financial and securities markets are full of unpredictable changes. It is an interesting topic whether fluctuation of stock prices follows certain rules. This paper sources data from the stock market of Taiwan, and selects the stock of Uni-President Enterprises Corp. which is a representative stock with large capital share, and belongs to an traditional industry that is not affected by business cycles, and selects the stock of TSMC which is a representative stock with large capital share, and belongs to an technology industry that is easily affected by business cycles. This paper will use the Fractal theory to study the accuracy of prediction of the random stock price of these two industries.
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Rozmahel, Petr, and Nikola Najman. "Continuing integration in Europe? Some empirical evidence on European industrial production cycle." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 60, no. 7 (2012): 233–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201260070233.
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The paper deals with assessing the common trends in business cycle similarity and convergence in Europe. The main goal of the paper is to identify common cyclical co-movements and trends in convergence among the European countries so that the emerging European business cycle could be identified. Concerning the factors of business cycle, the research question of the paper is based on assumption that the integration effects are so dominant to bring the European cycle into existence. Also a potential influence of the global crisis on European and world business cycles is examined in the paper. The industrial production index is used to approximate business cycles. Hodrick-Prescott filter, Christiano-Fitzgerald filter and first differencing were used to dissect the cyclical components and identify the cycles in the data. The co-movements, trends of convergence and divergence of business cycles are identified using correlation analysis. Particularly, actual cross correlation and historical correlation in separated subsequent periods is applied in the analysis. Also an original measure of the European business cycle emergence was applied. The results do not provide an evidence of emerging European business cycle contrary to US cycle. The global economic crises was identified as a kind of negative symmetric shock pushing all major economies towards the recession phase of the cycle und thus increasing similarity. The results also shed some light on an influence of different detrending techniques when dissecting the cycles from the input macroeconomic time series.
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van Tilburg, Marlies, Harold Krikke, and Wim Lambrechts. "Supply Chain Relationships in Circular Business Models: Supplier Tactics at Royal Smit Transformers." Logistics 6, no. 4 (October 31, 2022): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/logistics6040077.
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Background: Despite growing popularity, Circular Economy has not reached its full potential. One of the frequently mentioned success factors is the adoption of a Circular Business Model. However, fueled by (too) many constraints, its implementation is often hampered by so-called vicious cycles. Successful Circular Business Models require intensive collaboration between buyers and suppliers, with one of the key questions remaining who takes the initiative and leads the development: buyer or supplier? Methods: Through a single case study combining desk research, interviews, participative observations and analysis of vicious cycles, we investigate how supply chain relationships managed by the supplier can enhance the implementation of Circular Business Models. Results: We show that supplier tactics can relax constraints and break vicious cycles through (1) buyer–supplier relationship management, (2) functional integration of stakeholders and (3) incentive management. We also show that, due to supplier captive conditions, a number of enabling factors are indispensable, namely: (1) the availability of buyer incentives; (2) (joint experimenting to develop) circular knowledge; (3) sharing clear visions on circularity; (4) being transparent in possibilities; and (5) supply chain leadership. Conclusions: As a consequence, strategic trust-based partnerships are a prerequisite for turning vicious cycles into virtuous cycles. Future research should also investigate the role of the buyer, including buyer captive conditions, and how to shape supply chain leadership. Finally, the role of supplier tactics in relation to other success factors next to Circular Business Models needs to be further explored.
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de Haan, Jakob, Robert Inklaar, and Richard Jong-A-Pin. "WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH." Journal of Economic Surveys 22, no. 2 (April 2008): 234–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00529.x.
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Tvedt, Jostein. "Transport services and the valuation of flexibility over business cycles." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 130 (December 2019): 517–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.057.
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Ivanov, Viktor, Nadezhda Lvova, Neli Abramishvili, and Natalia Pokrovskaia. "Are the Industry Cycles the Global Trend in Investment Activity?" SHS Web of Conferences 92 (2021): 08010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219208010.
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Research background: According to the concept of sector rotation, industry cycles affect the investment attractiveness of companies. Industry cycles relate to business ones, and specific industries are preferred for investors depending on the phase of the latter. The scope of this concept application is portfolio investment management. However, we use it in a new way, assuming that the unfavourable phase leads to a decrease in the investment activity of companies in the corresponding industry. Purpose of the article: Since the concept of sector rotation claims universality, we reveal if the industry cycles are the global trend in investment activity. The research purpose is to test the hypothesis of an industry cycles’ impact on the dynamics of the investment activity in companies obtaining external financing. Methods: Using the concept of sector rotation, we suggest several industry groups and tested whether the peak of investment activity in each group falls on the expected favourable phase of the business cycle. In the context of global investment trends, this hypothesis should be confirmed at public companies of any sufficiently large financial market. For testing, Russian companies were selected. The growth rate of capital investments was used as an indicator of investment activity. Findings & Value added: It was revealed that the hypothesis about the impact of industry cycles on the investment activity of a business has the potential for further research. However, there is no sufficient evidence to consider the orientation of the investment behaviour of companies on industry cycles as a global trend.
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Musyafi, Roihatul, Hamidah Utami, and Arik Prasetya. "THE INFLUENCE OF INFORMATION SHARING AND INFORMATION QUALITY TOWARD SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION AND ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE (Study of Shallot Farmers in East Java)." International Journal of Accounting and Business Society 28, no. 2 (August 1, 2020): 101–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.ijabs.2020.28.2.6.
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Purpose — This research was conducted to study the effect of information sharing and information quality toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance. Design/methodology/approach — The type of this research is quantitative explanatory research. The data used in this study are primary data obtained by questionnaire. The sampling method uses multistage proportional random sampling, sample obtained amount 200 farmers. Data analysis in this study uses path analysis method with SPSS 23. Findings — The results of this research indicate that the quality of information is not significant to the integration of supply chain and farmer business performance. Information sharing has a positive and significant effect toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance, supply chain integration has a positive and significant effect toward farmer business performance. Practical Implications — Increasing global business competition and efforts to shorten product life cycles are the two main factors that encourage businesses to change their focus from competitive competition to mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation to improve business performance. Originality/value — The main objective of supply chain activities for business activities is a crucial element because with these activities the goods produced can reach the end consumers.
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Zaroug, Yousef, Armanu Thoyib, Djumilah Hadiwidjojo, and Ir Solaimun. "AN INVESTIGATION THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE AND EXTERNAL CUSTOMER SATISFACTION ORIENTATION (An Empirical Study of four stars hotels in Tripoli- Libya)." International Journal of Accounting and Business Society 28, no. 2 (August 1, 2020): 121–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.ijabs.2020.28.2.7.
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Purpose — This research was conducted to study the effect of information sharing and information quality toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance. Design/methodology/approach — The type of this research is quantitative explanatory research. The data used in this study are primary data obtained by questionnaire. The sampling method uses multistage proportional random sampling, sample obtained amount 200 farmers. Data analysis in this study uses path analysis method with SPSS 23. Findings — The results of this research indicate that the quality of information is not significant to the integration of supply chain and farmer business performance. Information sharing has a positive and significant effect toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance, supply chain integration has a positive and significant effect toward farmer business performance. Practical Implications — Increasing global business competition and efforts to shorten product life cycles are the two main factors that encourage businesses to change their focus from competitive competition to mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation to improve business performance. Originality/value — The main objective of supply chain activities for business activities is a crucial element because with these activities the goods produced can reach the end consumers.
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Musyafi, Roihatul, Hamidah Utami, and Arik Prasetya. "THE INFLUENCE OF INFORMATION SHARING AND INFORMATION QUALITY TOWARD SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION AND ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE (Study of Shallot Farmers in East Java)." International Journal of Accounting and Business Society 28, no. 2 (August 1, 2020): 101–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.ijabs.2020.28.2.6.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose — This research was conducted to study the effect of information sharing and information quality toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance. Design/methodology/approach — The type of this research is quantitative explanatory research. The data used in this study are primary data obtained by questionnaire. The sampling method uses multistage proportional random sampling, sample obtained amount 200 farmers. Data analysis in this study uses path analysis method with SPSS 23. Findings — The results of this research indicate that the quality of information is not significant to the integration of supply chain and farmer business performance. Information sharing has a positive and significant effect toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance, supply chain integration has a positive and significant effect toward farmer business performance. Practical Implications — Increasing global business competition and efforts to shorten product life cycles are the two main factors that encourage businesses to change their focus from competitive competition to mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation to improve business performance. Originality/value — The main objective of supply chain activities for business activities is a crucial element because with these activities the goods produced can reach the end consumers.
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Zaroug, Yousef, Armanu Thoyib, Djumilah Hadiwidjojo, and Ir Solaimun. "AN INVESTIGATION THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE AND EXTERNAL CUSTOMER SATISFACTION ORIENTATION (An Empirical Study of four stars hotels in Tripoli- Libya)." International Journal of Accounting and Business Society 28, no. 2 (August 1, 2020): 121–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.ijabs.2020.28.2.7.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose — This research was conducted to study the effect of information sharing and information quality toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance. Design/methodology/approach — The type of this research is quantitative explanatory research. The data used in this study are primary data obtained by questionnaire. The sampling method uses multistage proportional random sampling, sample obtained amount 200 farmers. Data analysis in this study uses path analysis method with SPSS 23. Findings — The results of this research indicate that the quality of information is not significant to the integration of supply chain and farmer business performance. Information sharing has a positive and significant effect toward supply chain integration and farmer business performance, supply chain integration has a positive and significant effect toward farmer business performance. Practical Implications — Increasing global business competition and efforts to shorten product life cycles are the two main factors that encourage businesses to change their focus from competitive competition to mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation to improve business performance. Originality/value — The main objective of supply chain activities for business activities is a crucial element because with these activities the goods produced can reach the end consumers.