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Journal articles on the topic 'Business cycles – Europe'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 March 2023

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1

Canova, Fabio, Matteo Ciccarelli, and Eva Ortega. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36, no. 10 (October 2012): 1520–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.017.

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2

Papageorgiou, Theofanis, Panayotis G. Michaelides, and John G. Milios. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960–2009)." Journal of Economics and Business 62, no. 5 (September 2010): 419–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2010.05.004.

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3

Rozmahel, Petr, and Nikola Najman. "Continuing integration in Europe? Some empirical evidence on European industrial production cycle." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 60, no. 7 (2012): 233–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201260070233.

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The paper deals with assessing the common trends in business cycle similarity and convergence in Europe. The main goal of the paper is to identify common cyclical co-movements and trends in convergence among the European countries so that the emerging European business cycle could be identified. Concerning the factors of business cycle, the research question of the paper is based on assumption that the integration effects are so dominant to bring the European cycle into existence. Also a potential influence of the global crisis on European and world business cycles is examined in the paper. The industrial production index is used to approximate business cycles. Hodrick-Prescott filter, Christiano-Fitzgerald filter and first differencing were used to dissect the cyclical components and identify the cycles in the data. The co-movements, trends of convergence and divergence of business cycles are identified using correlation analysis. Particularly, actual cross correlation and historical correlation in separated subsequent periods is applied in the analysis. Also an original measure of the European business cycle emergence was applied. The results do not provide an evidence of emerging European business cycle contrary to US cycle. The global economic crises was identified as a kind of negative symmetric shock pushing all major economies towards the recession phase of the cycle und thus increasing similarity. The results also shed some light on an influence of different detrending techniques when dissecting the cycles from the input macroeconomic time series.

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4

Vutsova, Albena, Martina Arabadzhieva, and Todor Yalamov. "YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE – BUSINESS CYCLES, CRISES, AND POLICY RESPONSES." Proceedings of CBU in Economics and Business 2 (October 24, 2021): 116–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.12955/peb.v2.263.

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Purpose: The goal of the paper is to analyse in which countries’ youth unemployment is statistically pro or countercyclical and how crises in the last decade have affected it. What would the plausible explanations for diverging patterns within the EU and other European countries be? In what terms is the young people’s labour market across Europe imbalanced? Methodology: The paper builds on Gontkovicova et al.’s (2015) analysis of correlations between GDP growth and youth unemployment on an annual basis by adding more indicators and considering the quarterly basis as well. The quantitative approach is enriched by qualitative insights on Southeast European countries studied within the Erasmus+ YouthCap project (CRA, 2020). Findings: Most of the countercyclical youth unemployment trends in the last 20 years are observed in Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia). From Western European countries Iceland, Denmark and Portugal are countercyclical. The most resilient countries in terms of COVID-19 are North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Iceland, which were able to reduce youth unemployment during the coronavirus crisis (Q3 in 2019 and 2020). Plausible policy reactions have been identified based on the concept of learning societies and the need for continuous education. Practical implications: The paper argues why localised policy responses could be more effective than a centralised solution. However, increased coordination and standardisation of secondary and higher education could lead to increased youth labour migration. Originality/value: The paper combines a more traditional quantitative approach to the most recent data series with the qualitative approach of identifying various micro-trends by looking at selected outlier countries.

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5

Taylor, Karl, and Robert McNabb. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, no. 2 (April 2007): 185–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00472.x.

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6

Beck, Krzysztof. "Determinants of Business Cycles Synchronization in the European Union and the Euro Area." Equilibrium 8, no. 4 (December 31, 2013): 25–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2013.025.

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Further economic and monetary integration in Europe is currently on hold due to the crisis and even questions about the possible exile of Greece. Especially in those conditions, it is important, to see whether integrated Europe can handle future problems and if economic and monetary integration can be helpful or rather more problematic. The main aim of this paper is to check to what degree business cycles are synchronized in the Eurozone and the European Union and what the main determinants of business cycles synchronization are. To achieve this, the following steps have been taken. Firstly, we turn to optimum currency area theory, to see what conditions need to be met, if the European Union and the euro area can use common monetary policy to deal with some economic shocks. Then, all necessary methodological explanations are presented. Later on, the preliminary data analysis is employed to see how business cycles and their determinants were acting during the last 20 years. Finally, panel data analysis is used to check how those determinants actually influence business cycles synchronization. The main finding of the article is that even though business cycles synchronization has been progressing in the European Union and the euro area so does the specialization – divergence in production structure. This may result in less synchronized business cycles in the future.

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7

Matesanz, David, and Guillermo J. Ortega. "On business cycles synchronization in Europe: A note on network analysis." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 462 (November 2016): 287–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.06.097.

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8

Flandreau, Marc, and Mathilde Maurel. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe." Open Economies Review 16, no. 2 (April 2005): 135–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-005-5872-4.

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9

KAYSER, MARK ANDREAS. "Trade and the Timing of Elections." British Journal of Political Science 36, no. 3 (May 17, 2006): 437–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123406000238.

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Do trade-transmitted international business cycles affect the timing of national elections? This article shows that export expansions do not differ substantively from booms in aggregate output in inviting opportunistic governments to call elections, especially as their terms mature. Further analysis confirms two ancillary implications of this relationship: (a) that clusters of countries tend to hold elections in periods of international economic expansion and (b) that national election cycles, much like business cycles, have become more correlated over time, most prominently in Europe. The findings in this article raise implications for continued economic integration: freer movement of goods, services and capital may imply more correlated business cycles and, by extension, election cycles.

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10

CROWLEY, PATRICK M., and AARON SCHULTZ. "MEASURING THE INTERMITTENT SYNCHRONICITY OF MACROECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPE." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 21, no. 04 (April 2011): 1215–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218127411028957.

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Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of member states. In this paper, a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, suggesting that apart from specific times when European integration initiatives were being implemented, globalization was likely the dominant factor behind international business cycle synchronization.

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11

Ferent-Pipas, Marina. "Beveridge Curve Shifts – Europe 2020 Perspectives." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 63, no. 3 (2016): 321–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2016-0125.

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The present paper aligns to the economic policy body of research granting intensive efforts to the sphere of analysing the unemployment rate’s evolution as well as its primary drivers and effects in the context of the Europe 2020 strategy. Considering one of the agenda’s main targets – increasing employability among the European Union’s states, this paper analyses the areas funded by the European Social Fund as well as the country policy specifics in deriving the behaviour of the Beveridge curve associated with the EU-13 countries given the shift of European Union’s funds from old member states to newer ones. As such, the study employs the tools of Simultaneous Equations Systems and examines the impact of four categories of components on the Beveridge curve’s behaviour - structure of the unemployed, labour market and business environment factors as well as business cycles.

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12

Honningdal Grytten, Ola, and Viktoriia Koilo. "Financial instability, institutional development and economic crisis in Eastern Europe." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 16, no. 3 (September 6, 2019): 167–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(3).2019.16.

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This paper sheds light on the financial crisis of 2008–2010 in eleven emerging Eastern European economies (EE11): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan and Ukraine. The aim is twofold. In the first place it seeks to find out if the financial instability hypothesis, as put forward by Minsky and Kindleberger, is a valid explanatory factor for the crisis. Secondly, it tries to map if general institutional frameworks of these countries were developed in order to stand against the factors leading into the financial crisis.To answer these research problems the paper maps cycles of three parameters representing the real economy, i.e. gross domestic product, manufacturing output and unemployment and four parameters representing the financial markets, i.e. money supply, credit volumes, inflation and government debt. The cycle approach is carried out with the help of a structural time series analysis to isolate cycles in time series. The paper concludes that there were substantial positive financial cycles previous to the financial crisis mirrored by similar cycles in the real economy. Similarly, the results show negative cycles in the same parameters during the years of crisis. It seems that an uncontrolled increase in money and credit caused the economy to overheat and thereafter contract into financial and real economy crises.Also, the paper compiles twelve different indices of institutional development. These are standardized and presented in an institutional development matrix, showing that the general institutional framework for the eleven economies was weak previous to and under the meltdown of the economies. The construction of an integrated institutional development index on the basis of the same twelve parameters confirms institutional shortcomings, which may have made the economies less able to guard themselves from a crisis initiated by both domestically and internationally financial instability.

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13

Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, and Álvaro M. Pina. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America." Open Economies Review 22, no. 4 (September 24, 2009): 565–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-009-9133-9.

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14

Horányi, Beatrix, and Emese Tatár. "Developmental Cycles of a Family Business in the Catering Industry." Analecta Technica Szegedinensia 10, no. 2 (June 15, 2016): 16–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.14232/analecta.2016.2.16-22.

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Small and medium-sized enterprises became relevant actors of the economy due not only to their role in the employment but also in producing GDP and export products. Within the sector, family enterprises constitute ¾ of the enterprises in Europe, their significance is therefore decisive. In our publication, we present the career path of SoReCa Ltd., family enterprise acting in the catering industry. Having operated for 10 years, the company’s portfolio covers child nutrition, company canteens as well as event catering. In our research, we used the corporate lifecycle model of Adizes which was supplemented by corporate medical records, as a useful practical tool. By these medical records, we may explore SoReCa lifecycle stages, their main features, and the signs of crisis, evolution or revolution. These analyses may help the management in the decision process and may form successful management tools in establishing new strategy if needed. We show that among management roles - integrator role - is the key role of organizations in Prime ages.

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15

Mierzejewski, Mateusz, and Karolina Palimąka. "A Multi – Speed Europe, and the Peripherality of Poland." e-Finanse 15, no. 1 (March 1, 2019): 30–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/fiqf-2019-0004.

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AbstractIn recent years, research on the synchronization of business cycles in economies has been undertaken more than once. This is a desirable phenomenon especially for the European Union. The aim of the article is to verify selected macroeconomic indicators that characterize the economies of countries belonging to the European Union in relation to Poland, thus presenting convergence of dynamic cycles of changes in socio-economic sphere indicators: inflation rate, unemployment rate, short-term interest rates, and GDP. For this purpose, a cross-spectral analysis was used which allows us to show the occurring fluctuations of different lengths, as well as to compare the strength of the relation of changes between selected indicators. According to the conducted analyses, it was noted that the Polish economy (in the perspective of long-term changes) is a determinant of changes for highly developed countries.

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16

Olivero, María Pía, and Robert Madak. "Financial integration within Europe and the international transmission of business cycles among industrialized countries." Applied Economics 45, no. 1 (September 14, 2011): 111–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.595693.

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17

Lamey, Lien, Barbara Deleersnyder, Marnik G. Dekimpe, and Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp. "How Business Cycles Contribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States and Europe." Journal of Marketing 71, no. 1 (January 2007): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.71.1.001.

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18

Lamey, Lien, Barbara Deleersnyder, Marnik G. Dekimpe, and Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp. "How Business Cycles Contribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States and Europe." Journal of Marketing 71, no. 1 (January 2007): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.71.1.1.

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19

RODRÍGUEZ-POSE, ANDRÉS, and UGO FRATESI. "Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe." Growth and Change 38, no. 4 (November 29, 2007): 621–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2257.2007.00390.x.

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20

De Pace, Pierangelo. "CURRENCY UNION, FREE-TRADE AREAS, AND BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION." Macroeconomic Dynamics 17, no. 3 (February 14, 2013): 646–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000423.

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Since the 1970s, the characteristics of international business cycles have changed, and deeper economic integration has modified the features of cross-country comovement. We formally test for correlation shifts in measures of real economic activity and economic/financial integration. In Europe we find some statistically significant evidence of higher correlations for several subgroups of countries following the creation of the EMU in 1999. We detect significantly more pronounced correlations between Mexico and the United States and between Mexico and Canada in North America after the enforcement of the NAFTA in 1994. Results are derived from an econometric framework based on nonparametric iterated stationary bootstrap methods, whose statistical reliability and performance we assess through Monte Carlo simulations.

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21

Karras, Georgios. "Sources of business cycles in Europe: 1960–1988. Evidence from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom." European Economic Review 38, no. 9 (December 1994): 1763–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(94)90049-3.

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22

Ben, Arfa. "Analysis of shocks affecting Europe: EMU and some central and eastern acceding countries." Panoeconomicus 56, no. 1 (2009): 21–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan0901021b.

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This paper deals with the synchronization of business cycles and economic shocks between the euro area and acceding countries. We therefore extract the business cycle component of output by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation using long run restriction (Blanchard and Quah). We then check the (A) symmetry of these shocks by calculating the correlation between euro area shocks and those of the different acceding countries. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of demand shocks with the euro area however supply shocks are asymmetric; the correlation between euro area and central and east European countries (CEECs) is negative. We therefore conclude that joining the European Monetary Union is not yet possible: central and east European countries have to make structural changes to join the European Monetary Union.

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23

Belke, Ansgar, and Jens Heine. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe." Empirica 34, no. 1 (November 22, 2006): 15–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10663-006-9017-9.

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24

Apostolov, Mico, and Dushko Josheski. "Macedonia’s exports toward Southeast Europe through the gravity model." Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 34, no. 2 (July 2, 2018): 108–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jeas-05-2017-0039.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the export performance of the Republic of Macedonia to its main trading partners from Southeast Europe; hence, the authors focus on the major importing countries which are most present in the Macedonian trade balance. Design/methodology/approach The data used in this paper are analyzed with gravity model, which has good characteristics and very stable performance. Further, the data sample is formed on major importers form the Southeastern Europe region. Findings The results show that the domestic country GDP is positively correlated with the exports from the source country to target countries and that Balkan countries have positive propensities to import from Macedonia, however, it was found that populations of source country and target country are negatively correlated with exports from the source country to target countries. Additionally, the business cycles had no positive effect on Macedonian export to the target countries. Originality/value Based on pertinent theoretical concepts and existing empirical findings, and by applying up-to-date methodological approach, case studies might bring vital contribution to the literature, which eventually leads to solid policy and practice.

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25

Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., Theofanis Papageorgiou, Panayotis G. Michaelides, and Efthymios G. Tsionas. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)." Open Economies Review 26, no. 5 (April 18, 2015): 971–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9345-0.

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26

Morys, Matthias, and Martin Ivanov. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II." European Review of Economic History 19, no. 4 (July 22, 2015): 382–411. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hev011.

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27

Dadak, Casimir. "Political economy of the euro area crisis." Panoeconomicus 58, no. 5 (2011): 593–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan1105593d.

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For many experts the true motivation behind the introduction of a single currency in Europe is political rather than economic. This view is based on the fact that the euro area does not constitute an optimal currency area and, therefore, the costs of monetary integration are likely to outweigh the benefits. In particular, the loss of control over monetary policy and exchange rates make overcoming asymmetric demand-side shocks very painful. Moreover, the monetary union lacks a common fiscal authority that could help in smoothing out business cycles. The present crisis exposed these vulnerabilities and, unfortunately, so far economic policies adopted in the region have failed to rectify these shortcomings.

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28

Bobryshev, Alexey, Lyubov Chaykovskaya, Vasilii Erokhin, and Anna Ivolga. "Sustaining Growth or Boosting Profit: Accounting Tools under Process-Based Management in a Transition Economy." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16, no. 2 (February 5, 2023): 92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16020092.

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Over the past three decades, economic transformations in Eastern Europe and Russia have substantially affected the use of management technologies. More and more businesses prioritize sustaining growth and development in the long run instead of maximizing profits in the short term. The shift in the business paradigm requires the implementation of new management tools along with the improvement of management accounting. Through the example of seven Russian boiler manufacturers, this study examines the main reasons for the transition to process-based management. The study identifies patterns of using management accounting tools in process-based management by employing the literature analysis, conducting an expert survey, and studying the accounting documents of selected companies. The authors analyze features of management accounting tools at different stages of implementation of the process-based management system, in enterprises with different life cycles and different sizes. A total of 53 employees were surveyed, which included senior managers, accountants, and middle-level managers. It is found that the main reason for the transition to process-based management is a shift in the focus of managers’ attention from cutting costs to creating value. By adding new features of business process classification, developing new classification groups, and proposing the optimal structure of the core, auxiliary, and controlling business processes, this study contributes to the optimization of management accounting when organizational change requires implementing process-based management.

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29

Avioutskii, Viatcheslav, and Mouloud Tensaout. "Does politics matter? Partisan FDI in Central and Eastern Europe." Multinational Business Review 24, no. 4 (December 12, 2016): 375–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mbr-07-2015-0028.

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Purpose While many studies have investigated the impact of institutional factors (i.e. financial risk factors) in the host country on inward foreign direct investment (FDI), fewer studies have researched on the locational aspects of FDI in relation to the political economy. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the effects of the political economy on inward FDI in Poland’s regions and in other CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) countries. Design/methodology/approach The paper develops a theoretical argument postulating that political economy affects locational determinants of FDI inflow. To test this hypothesis empirically, several analyses were performed at the national level (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) and at the subnational level (Poland’s provinces). First, the “footloose” nature of FDI inflows using the time series analysis was examined. Then a fixed-effect panel data regression model and a dynamic adjustment model to quantify the impact of political ideology and agglomeration effects were performed. Findings After controlling for economic and institutional determinants of FDI, the findings indicate that, in transitional economies, ideology affects the locational choice of multinational corporations (MNCs). At the national level, the results show that political risk, liberalization and economic reforms are important drivers of FDI inflows. At the subnational level, the vote for a liberal party positively affects the distribution of FDI in the provinces. Another finding is that electoral cycles also affect FDI inflows at regional levels in Poland. Finally, this study provides some supporting evidence for the “footloose” nature of FDI in case of external shocks. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on the locational determinants of FDI by showing that ideology constitutes an important factor for locational choices by MNCs. The findings have important implications for public policy decision-makers who are seeking to improve the attractiveness of their country or region as an FDI destination.

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30

Kowalski, Mariusz. "Generational cycles and changes in time and space." Geographia Polonica 92, no. 3 (2019): 253–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.7163/gpol.0148.

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The cyclical character of definite processes observed under both Polish and American conditions in fact emerges as of a universal nature, finding its analogies throughout the world, though first and foremost within the European cultural circle. It is also possible to speak of its far reaching synchronicity, encompassing change on both local and global scales. This is witnessed by successive culminations of cycles with the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars, the revolutionary surges of the 1830s and 1840s, the events of the 1860s and 1870s, the turbulences and wars of the early 20th century (notably World War I), then World War II, the great transformations of the 1980s, and the recently observed increase in political tension in various parts of the world (e.g. the Middle East, Ukraine, etc.). In the economic sphere the symptoms are shifts in the business climate, which can even be calculated by reference to quantitative indicators. Then, in the sphere of culture, it is possible to denote successive periods in literature and the arts. In the political sphere in turn, events that shape the state or territorial order are to be observed readily. The present article thus seeks to propose the existence of a universal and synchronous 30-40 years long generation cycle, which manifests itself in real symptoms in the world of politics, and for instance in the cyclicity seen to characterise intensity of change on the political map of Europe.

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31

Jeon, Jong Kyou. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization." Journal of Korea Trade 22, no. 1 (March 5, 2018): 36–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jkt-12-2017-0103.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade integration and intra-regional business cycle synchronization using value-added trade data. Most empirical studies analyzing the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization use gross trade data which suffer from double-counting. Double-counting distorts the empirical results on the estimated relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization. This paper explores the relationship using value-added trade data to be free from distortions caused by double-counting. Design/methodology/approach Gross trade data on exports and imports are decomposed into sub-categories following Koopman et al. (2014). Then, value-added data on exports and imports without double-counted terms are built to measure value-added bilateral trade intensity and value-added intra-industry trade intensity. Using this value-added trade intensities, the author run panel regressions for Europe and East Asian countries to examine how value-added trade intensities are correlated with output co-movements. Findings The paper finds that for European countries, the positive association between trade and business cycle co-movements is more evidently observed and the role of intra-industry trade increasing the business cycle synchronization is also more clearly revealed by value-added trade data. On the other hand, for East Asian countries, value-added trade data reveal that it is very uncertain whether increased trade contributes to stronger synchronization of business cycles and intra-industry trade is truly the major factor which deepens the business cycle co-movements. Research limitations/implications First, the paper examines the relationship only by running static panel regression. There is a need to employ different methodologies such as instrumental variable regression or dynamic panel regression. Second, financial integration and policy coordination within a region are also other relevant factors which influence the intra-regional business cycle synchronization. There is a need to examine the relationship using value-added trade data with the variables measuring the degree of financial integration and policy coordination. Third, value-added trade data used in this paper has limited coverage of East Asian countries. There is also a need to extend the value-added data set to cover more countries and industries. Originality/value Most empirical literature studying the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization rely on gross trade data. This paper would be the first attempt to study the relationship using value-added trade data. Duval et al. (2014) also use value-added data, but their value-added data are not supported by a solid accounting framework which decomposes a country’s gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Value-added data in this paper computed based on Koopman et al. (2014) are the total domestic value exports that are ultimately consumed abroad via final and intermediate exports. The author believes that value-added data in this paper are most relevant in estimating the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization.

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32

Szaruga, Elżbieta. "Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28." European Journal of Service Management 27 (2018): 321–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.18276/ejsm.2018.27/1-41.

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33

Liow, Kim Hiang, and Felix Schindler. "Linkages between office markets in Europe: a volatility spillover perspective." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 35, no. 1 (February 6, 2017): 3–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-02-2016-0010.

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Purpose Using a data set comprising 16 European office markets provided by the DTZ Research Institute from Q1 2003 to Q4 2013, the purpose of this paper is to measure the strength of the unconditional transmission of volatility in the returns to direct property between 16 European office markets with the objective of determining the degree of unconditional spillover between markets. Design/methodology/approach To examine volatility spillovers across the 16 office markets, the authors adopted the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) by measuring cross-office market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several “volatility spillover indices.” Findings Volatility spillovers are important and time-varying across the leading office markets, with cross-market volatility interaction being bi-directional and of relative endogenous nature for many markets. The London office market is the “volatility leader” and has exerted significant net volatility influence on the other markets. Additionally, the volatility spillovers between business cycle fluctuations and asset market cycle volatilities are linked across some European economies. Research limitations/implications Evidence of co-integration among the domestic volatility spillover cycles implies the presence of unobserved common shocks and might not be good news for international investors who pursue diversification strategies in European office real estate markets. Originality/value No previous study has addressed formally the measurement and assessment of the nature and intensity of volatility spillovers across direct office markets on such a broad range of European office markets. The relevance of the topic has been even increasing over the previous years as more and more investors seek for flexibility and participation in the investment process and asset management.

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Roubi, Sherif. "Towards a transaction-based hotel property price index for Europe." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 33, no. 3 (April 7, 2015): 256–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-09-2013-0053.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to fill an existing gap in the field. A transaction-based hotel price index for Europe is constructed to provide a true measure for hotel real estate performance. The index will enable investors enhance investment decisions in many ways: to assess individual property performance; to make an objective decision about where to invest and in which property type; to assess the relative performance of hotel assets to all other sectors and consequently reach optimal funds allocation decisions. This will allow investors to time their acquisitions/disposals according to the hotel property cycle. Design/methodology/approach – Data include 495 hotel property transactions in Europe during the period between 2004 and 2013. Transaction prices and property characteristics were collected from a variety sources published by hotel agents and consultants, property magazines, newspapers, tourist board, individual property and hotel association registers and web sites. Data include property name, sale price, size, time of sale, location, buyers and sellers. A hedonic pricing model is developed where the transaction price is regressed on the different characteristics. The index is calculated by taking the anti-logs of regression coefficients of the year index. Findings – This paper claims that the hotel property price index (HPPI) portrays a more realistic picture of what happened to hotel property prices in 2008 showing a single digit negative growth vs the hotel valuation index which reports a double digit negative growth rate in European hotel prices during the same year. The real impact of recession showed on hotel property prices in 2009. HPPI shows a crash in hotel property prices by -23.7 per cent in 2009. The year 2011 was marked by more sales transacted through administrators and a looming double-dip recession. Unlike appraisal-based indices, HPPI does not suffer from sticky valuation issues and is not desensitise from distressed properties. Therefore, it was more volatile to distressed situations throughout the period between 2011 and 2013. Research limitations/implications – Results of this study should be considered with caution. There are limitations associated with transaction data including incompleteness or inaccuracies regarding price data, financing information for each deal, property tenure, and property characteristics. Practical implications – This work has successfully developed an HPPI for hotel property in Europe. This paper paves the way for transaction-based indices that are more volatile than existing appraisal-based indices. This represents a significant development in tracking price movements of hotel properties in Europe. The index has potential to support research and forecasting of the hotel property cycles. Originality/value – This paper fulfils an identified need to track hotel property prices and timing the hotel property cycle.

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YIN, Kedong, Zhe LIU, and Peide LIU. "TREND ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL STOCK MARKET LINKAGE BASED ON A DYNAMIC CONDITIONAL CORRELATION NETWORK." Journal of Business Economics and Management 18, no. 4 (August 27, 2017): 779–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2017.1341849.

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The paper analyses the trend of global stock market linkages via daily data of 51 stock indices spanning the period 22 July 2005 to 30 June 2016 which covers four regions: America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Africa. A dynamic conditional multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MVGARCH) approach was used to calculate dynamic correlation coefficient in order to construct the volatility networks. The methods of minimum spanning tree (MST) and low pass filter were for the first time applied to analyze the variable periodicity of the comovement. The original contribution of this paper is that contrary to previous works, financial events such as Quantitative Easing (QE) and Bailouts are accounted for rather than only crisis factors such as the 2008 financial crisis and the European Debt crisis. The main findings of the paper are as follows: (1) Financial crisis promotes and strengthens global stock markets linkage in the short run; (2) Linkage cycles post crisis are significantly short, due to the effect of monetary policy spillover effects caused by QE from developed to developing countries; and (3) European stock markets are the information transmission hub for global stock market. The research conclusions would be significant for both government to regulate markets as well as for investors to diversify risks.

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Montoya, Lourdes Acedo, and Jakob de Haan. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?" International Economics and Economic Policy 5, no. 1-2 (April 3, 2008): 123–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-008-0106-z.

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Kim Cuong, Ly, and Vo Xuan Vinh. "Interbank financing and business cycle in Europe." Journal of Economic Studies 46, no. 6 (October 14, 2019): 1280–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2016-0148.

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Purpose The knowledge of the link between interbank financing and business cycle fluctuations is important in assessing the stability and soundness of the banking sector. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between interbank financing and the business cycle with respect to the financial structure of the bank-based and market-based systems in European countries by using bank-level data from 2007 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach The study employs an innovative instrumenting technique with an instrument of the financial structure to address the simultaneous determination of interbank financing and the business cycle. Findings The results suggest that banks establish pro-cyclical interbank borrowing by increasing their interbank position during booms and reducing it during downturns. Bank-based system performs better in redistributing the liquidity in the economy than the market-based system when there are imperfectly correlated liquidity shocks across regions during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Practical implications The improvement of banks’ liquidity risk management should be aligned with a specific financial system. The macro-prudential supervisor should require banks in the market-based system to disclose their interbank position on the extent of risk exposure during the liquidity shock period to stabilize the EU banking industry. Originality/value This study is the first to provide policy makers with some novel empirical results concerning the linkage among bank liquidity, the macroeconomic condition and financial structure.

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Minchener, Andrew J. "Advanced Power Generation Technologies." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 13, no. 4 (August 1995): 405–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459879501300411.

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The principal driving forces for development of advanced coal-fired power generation systems include: The need to generate power at minimum economic cost. The need to improve thermal efficiency. The need to comply with current and expected environmental standards. The means by which these objectives are being addressed vary, depending on the technology. Thus there has been the steady introduction of improved designs of pulverised fuel fired plant incorporating supercritical steam cycles, together with some form of flue gas desulphurisation, low NOx burners and, in some instances, further NOx control measures. While such systems are attractive they remain single cycles and so the scope for any further improvements is very limited. Consequently, in many cases, the approach to obtaining efficiency increases is to use combined gas turbine/steam turbine cycles and to minimise auxiliary power requirements. Capital costs are reduced by designing and sizing plant to enable a high degree of prefabrication before delivery and installation. There is scope to take advantage of further improvements in gas turbine technology and, in many cases, environmental controls are integral. The introduction of advanced coal-fired power generation technologies to the market place is affected by a number of factors. They include: Perceived technical and commercial risks balanced against the demonstrated and perceived advantages in terms of cost Environmental legislation and associated restrictions Perceived and actual relative fuel prices Government energy policies and, where appropriate, the availability of government funding to support demonstration projects. The advanced coal-fired power generation technologies are being developed primarily in the industrialised world and initially are being deployed there. However, introduction on a very wide scale could follow in less developed countries, eastern Europe and CIS countries. This is because of the energy demand patterns (coal dominated) and high growth foreseen in the former and the major environmental problems in all of these parts of the world. For market entry to occur in these regions, the barriers of: Mr. Andrew J Minchener is Environment and Industry Business Manager with special responsibility for technology services and development within CRE Group Ltd. This is a wholly owned subsidiary of the British Coal Corporation to be offered for sale as part of the coal industry privatisation. Mr. Minchener has some twenty years experience in coal utilisation reserach, development and demonstration in a number of market sectors. In particular, he has been involved in the development of advanced power generation process including PFBC and topping cycle processes. Mr. Minchener received BSc and MSc degrees from the University of Leeds and is a Chartered Engineer. Technology transfer and Provision of external funding mechanisms and political risk cover must be added to the list of market entry considerations given above. This paper reviews advanced systems in terms of their development status, their commercial potential and considers requirements to assist introduction to the market place.

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Camacho, Maximo, Angela Caro, and German Lopez-Buenache. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization." Empirical Economics 59, no. 3 (July 9, 2019): 1069–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01730-4.

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Dietrich, Hans, and Joachim Möller. "Youth unemployment in Europe – business cycle and institutional effects." International Economics and Economic Policy 13, no. 1 (November 19, 2015): 5–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-015-0331-1.

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Fialová, Kamila. "Part-time Employment and Business Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe." Review of Economic Perspectives 17, no. 2 (June 1, 2017): 179–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2017-0009.

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Abstract This article explores the development of part-time employment in Central and Eastern Europe and compares it to Western Europe. On the macro level it examines the role of the business cycle and its effect on part-time employment in the two groups of countries since 2001. The key result reveals that contrary to the West, the business cycle development exerts a significant negative effect on the part-time employment rate in Eastern Europe. When the economy operates below its potential, part-time employment tends to grow more than full-time employment. This finding is consistent with the labour demand effect and reflects the pursuit of flexibility by firms as well as the adjustment in composition of employment to changing economic conditions. The countercyclical effect is even stronger for involuntary part-time employment. Separate analyses of individual demographic groups of workers reveal a significant negative effect of the business cycle on part-time employment of older workers and male prime-age workers in Eastern Europe. In contrast, the effect is insignificant for young workers and unclear for prime-age women.

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Rana, Pradumna Bickram, Tianyin Cheng, and Wai-Mun Chia. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe." Journal of Asian Economics 23, no. 6 (December 2012): 701–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.11.003.

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Sensier, Marianne, Michael Artis, Denise R. Osborn, and Chris Birchenhall. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe." International Journal of Forecasting 20, no. 2 (April 2004): 343–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.009.

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Lee, Jim. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model." International Economic Journal 27, no. 3 (September 2013): 347–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2012.659278.

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de Lucas Santos, Sonia, and María Jesús Delgado Rodríguez. "Core-Periphery Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe and the Great Recession." Eastern European Economics 54, no. 6 (October 31, 2016): 521–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1238767.

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BERGMAN, U. MICHAEL, and LARS JONUNG. "BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN EUROPE: EVIDENCE FROM THE SCANDINAVIAN CURRENCY UNION*." Manchester School 79, no. 2 (February 21, 2011): 268–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02237.x.

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Moyen, Stéphane, and Nikolai Stähler. "UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE: SHOULD BENEFIT ENTITLEMENT DURATION REACT TO THE CYCLE?" Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 3 (October 2, 2012): 497–525. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000478.

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The aim of this paper is to study the optimal duration of unemployment benefit entitlement across the business cycle. We analyze whether the entitlement duration should be prolonged in bad and shortened in good times. Because of consumption smoothing, such a countercyclical policy can be welfare-enhancing as long as it does not affect labor market adjustment too severely and/or as long as it can even help to reduce inefficiencies there. If, however, the labor market is already quite inflexible, procyclical behavior may be preferable. In a calibrated dynamic business cycle framework, we find that countercyclical benefit entitlement duration may be preferable in the United States but not in Europe.

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Beine, Michel, Bertrand Candelon, and Khalid Sekkat. "EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe: Markov-Switching VAR Analysis." Journal of Economic Integration 18, no. 1 (March 15, 2003): 214–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2003.18.1.214.

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Shin, Kwanho, and Yunjong Wang. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe." Review of World Economics 141, no. 1 (April 2005): 104–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10290-005-0017-9.

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Lux, Nicole, and Alex Moss. "Liquidity in global real estate securities markets." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 4 (July 4, 2016): 321–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-11-2015-0078.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between liquidity in listed real estate markets, company size and geography during different market cycles, specifically pre-crisis (2002-2006) and post-crisis (2010-2014). Further, the study analyses the impact of stock liquidity on stock performance. In a previous study the authors examined the impact of liquidity on the valuation of European real estate shares. The result showed that there is a strong relationship between liquidity, valuation and market capitalisation post the Global Financial Crisis. Design/methodology/approach – The paper studies the linkages between regional market liquidity and company size for 60 listed real estate companies globally and determines the key drivers of company stock market liquidity pre- and post-crisis as well as the impact on stock performance. Analysis of variance is used to test cross-sectional independence in market liquidity combined with the Tukey’s post hoc test. The selected test indicators of liquidity to capture market depth and market tightness are daily stock turnover as percentage of market capitalisation and daily bid-ask spreads. Findings – Findings confirm previous studies that market liquidity factors are correlated globally over time indicating markets interdependence. However, sample groups by company size and geography form independent samples with different sample means, thus specific liquidity levels in each market may be different. First, stock turnover levels have not recovered post-crisis to pre-crisis levels in the majority of markets while spreads have continued moving downward to nearly insignificant levels in line with the rest of the equity market. Second, with regards to stock performance, the European bias previously detected is not apparent in the USA, and there is no evidence of the small cap vs large cap effect of small companies achieving superior returns, although smaller companies have outperformed in Europe and Asia in each of the last three years (2012-2014). Practical implications – The key implication is that although spread levels for smaller companies are higher, implying a slight risk premium when investing in small companies, this did not manifest into consistent superior stock market returns in the periods studied. In a mature market such as the USA or UK, liquidity levels in terms of stock turnover are higher and spreads are lower thus reducing trading costs, making them more attractive for investors. Originality/value – This research brings together previous analysis on stock market liquidity and stock performance on a global market level. It further tests the dependence of market liquidity on two key indicators, namely, geography and company size and analyses market changes with respect to liquidity pre- and post-crisis.

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