Journal articles: 'Bureau of Meteorology'

1

Greenslade, Diana, and Leon Majewski. "Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop 2019." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 70, no. 1 (2020): 106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/esv70n1_fo2.

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Grotz, Reinhold. "Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology, ed, Climate of Australia." Zeitschrift für Australienstudien / Australian Studies Journal 25 (2011): 118–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.35515/zfa/asj.25/2011.12.

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3

May, P. T., F. Cummings, J. Koutsovasilis, R. Jones, and D. Shaw. "The Australian Bureau of Meteorology 1280-MHz Wind Profiler." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 19, no. 6 (June 2002): 911–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0911:tabomm>2.0.co;2.

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4

ZILLMAN, J. W., D. GRIERSMITH, J. LE MARSHALL, and D. J. GAUNTLETT. "Remote sensing applications in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology." International Journal of Remote Sensing 11, no. 11 (November 1990): 1979–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431169008955156.

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5

Gamble, Felicity, Grant Beard, Andrew Watkins, David Jones, Catherine Ganter, Vanessa Webb, and Alex Evans. "Tracking the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in real-time: a staged communication approach to event onset." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 67, no. 2 (2017): 64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es17006.

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Communicating the development of El Niño and La Niña events is often challenging, largely due to the general misconception that the transition to an event can occur rapidly – like flicking a switch. Additionally, in Australia the association of El Niño with drought, and La Niña with flood, and the impacts that result, can often cloud the message. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for issuing updates on the current status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and declaring the onset and demise of an event. To assist in the communication of this often complex message, the Bureau of Meteorology developed an online tool, the ENSO Outlook, to keep stakeholders informed of the potential for El Niño or La Niña to develop in the upcoming seasons.

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H Sparks, Adam, Mark Padgham, Hugh Parsonage, and Keith Pembleton. "bomrang: Fetch Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Data in R." Journal of Open Source Software 2, no. 17 (September 21, 2017): 411. http://dx.doi.org/10.21105/joss.00411.

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7

Chubb, Thomas H., Michael J. Manton, Steven T. Siems, and Andrew D. Peace. "Evaluation of the AWAP daily precipitation spatial analysis with an independent gauge network in the Snowy Mountains." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 66, no. 1 (2016): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es16006.

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The Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) daily precipitation analysis provides high resolution rainfall data by interpolating rainfall gauge data, but when evaluated against a spatially dense independent gauge network in the Snowy Mountains large systematic biases are identified. Direct comparisons with the gauge data in May–September between 2007 and 2014 reveal average root mean square errors of about 4.5 mm, which is slightly greater than the average daily precipitation amount, and the errors are larger for higher elevation gauges. A standard Barnes objective analysis is per-formed on the combined set of independent gauges and Bureau of Meteorology gauges in the region to examine the spatial characteristics of the differences. The largest differences are found on the western (windward) slopes, where the Barnes analysis is up to double the value of the AWAP analysis. These differences are attributed to a) the lack of Bureau of Meteorology gauges in the area to empirically represent the precipitation climatology, and b) the inability of the AWAP analysis to account for the steep topography exposed to the prevailing winds. At high elevation (>1400 m) the Barnes analysis suggests that the precipitation amount is about fifteen percent greater than that of the AWAP analysis, where the difficulties of measuring frozen precipitation likely have a large impact.

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Bettio, Lynette, John R. Nairn, Steven C. McGibbony, Pandora Hope, Andrew Tupper, and Robert J. B. Fawcett. "A heatwave forecast service for Australia." Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria 131, no. 1 (2019): 53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rs19006.

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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology monitors, researches, predicts and communicates Australia’s weather and climate. Australia’s mean temperature has risen by over 1°C since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. Extreme heat can profoundly impact human health, infrastructure and the environment. Research conducted at the Bureau and elsewhere shows that climate change is impacting the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. One way that the Bureau has responded to this challenge is by providing a forecast service specifically targeted at identifying heatwaves. The heatwave service identifies areas expected to be impacted by three or more consecutive days of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures on a national map. The service has been developed with clear impact-based categories of heatwave severity. This heatwave service is now available operationally on the Bureau’s website during the heatwave season (nominally November to March) and is proving a valuable tool for engaging the community, including emergency services, with forecasts and warnings of extreme heat.

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Govekar, Pallavi Devidas, Christopher Griffin, and Helen Beggs. "Multi-Sensor Sea Surface Temperature Products from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology." Remote Sensing 14, no. 15 (August 6, 2022): 3785. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14153785.

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Sea surface temperature (SST) products that can resolve fine scale features, such as sub-mesoscale eddies, ocean fronts and coastal upwelling, are increasingly in demand. In response to user requirements for gap-free, highest spatial resolution, best quality and highest accuracy SST data, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) produces operational, real-time Multi-sensor SST level 3 products by compositing SST from Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors on Meteorological Operational satellite (MetOp)-B and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 18, along with SST from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and NOAA 20 polar-orbiting satellites for the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) project. Here we discuss our method to combine data from different sensors and present validation of the satellite-derived SST against in situ SST data. The Multi-sensor Level 3 Super Collated (L3S) SSTs exhibit significantly greater spatial coverage and improved accuracy compared with the pre-existing IMOS AVHRR-only L3S SSTs. When compared to the Geo Polar Blended level 4 analysis SST data over the Great Barrier Reef, Multi-sensor L3S SST differs by less than 1 °C while exhibiting a wider range of SSTs over the region. It shows more variability and restores small-scale features better than the Geo Polar Blended level 4 analysis SST data. The operational Multi-sensor L3S SST products are used as input for applications such as IMOS OceanCurrent and the BoM ReefTemp Next-Generation Coral Bleaching Nowcasting service and provide useful insight into the study of marine heatwaves and ocean upwelling in near-coastal regions.

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Carrara, E., J. Sharples, and E. Nation. "Making Australian groundwater data accessible: the value of collaboration." Water Practice and Technology 12, no. 3 (August 1, 2017): 675–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.070.

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Access to nationally consistent information is essential to support informed decision-making about Australia's vital groundwater resources. However, until now it has been difficult to depict a seamless national picture of groundwater resources and frame groundwater issues at a national scale. This is because groundwater data is typically managed locally without consistent format or terminology. Under the Commonwealth Water Act, the Bureau of Meteorology now collects, standardises, stores and analyses groundwater information from Australian lead water agencies to ensure the best available information is on hand to help understand this complex and largely hidden resource. One of the main objectives of the Bureau in the last few years has been to adopt a collaborative approach and work closely with State and Territory governments and other Commonwealth agencies to develop a consistent representation of Australian groundwater that is accessible and can be easily downloaded. This has resulted in the Bureau's Groundwater Information Suite.

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11

Hudson et. al., Debra. "ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science 67, no. 3 (2017): 132–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/3.6703.001.

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12

Hudson, Debra, Oscar Alves, Harry H. Hendon, Eun-Pa Lim, Guoqiang Liu, Jing-Jia Luo, Craig MacLachlan, et al. "ACCESS-S1 The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 67, no. 3 (2017): 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es17009.

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ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal performance of ACCESS-S1 has been evaluated based on a 23-year hindcast set and compared to the current operational system, POAMA. The system has considerable enhancements compared to POAMA, including higher vertical and horizontal resolution of the component models and state-ofthe-art physics parameterisation schemes. ACCESS-S1 is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system, but has enhancements to the ensemble generation strategy to make it appropriate for multi-week forecasting, and a larger ensemble size.ACCESS-S1 has markedly reduced biases in the mean state of the climate, both globally and over Australia, compared to POAMA. ACCESS-S1 also better predicts the early stages of the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (through the predictability barrier) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, as well as multi-week variations of the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation — all important drivers of Australian climate variability. There is an overall improvement in the skill of the forecasts of rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) over Australia on multi-week timescales compared to POAMA. On seasonal timescales the differences between the two systems are generally less marked. ACCESS-S1 has improved seasonal forecasts over Australia for the austral spring season compared to POAMA, with particularly good forecast reliability for rainfall and Tmax. However, forecasts of seasonal mean Tmax are noticeably less skilful over eastern Australia for forecasts of late autumn and winter compared to POAMA.The study has identified scope for improvement of ACCESS-S in the future, particularly 1) reducing rainfall errors in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions, and 2) initialising the land surface with realistic soil moisture rather than climatology. The latter impacts negatively on the skill of the temperature forecasts over eastern Australia and is being addressed in the next version of the system, ACCESS-S2.

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13

Su, Chun-Hsu, Nathan Eizenberg, Peter Steinle, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Christopher J. White, Susan Rennie, Charmaine Franklin, Imtiaz Dharssi, and Hongyan Zhu. "BARRA v1.0: the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia." Geoscientific Model Development 12, no. 5 (May 24, 2019): 2049–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019.

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Abstract. The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first atmospheric regional reanalysis over a large region covering Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. The production of the reanalysis with approximately 12 km horizontal resolution – BARRA-R – is well underway with completion expected in 2019. This paper describes the numerical weather forecast model, the data assimilation methods, the forcing and observational data used to produce BARRA-R, and analyses results from the 2003–2016 reanalysis. BARRA-R provides a realistic depiction of the meteorology at and near the surface over land as diagnosed by temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and precipitation. Comparing against the global reanalyses ERA-Interim and MERRA-2, BARRA-R scores lower root mean square errors when evaluated against (point-scale) 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and surface pressure observations. It also shows reduced biases in daily 2 m temperature maximum and minimum at 5 km resolution and a higher frequency of very heavy precipitation days at 5 and 25 km resolution when compared to gridded satellite and gauge analyses. Some issues with BARRA-R are also identified: biases in 10 m wind, lower precipitation than observed over the tropical oceans, and higher precipitation over regions with higher elevations in south Asia and New Zealand. Some of these issues could be improved through dynamical downscaling of BARRA-R fields using convective-scale (<2 km) models.

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14

Benyon, Richard, Shane Haydon, Rob Vertessy, Tom Hatton, George Kuczera, Paul Feikema, and Patrick Lane. "Comment on Wood et al. 2008, 'Impacts of fire on forest age and runoff in mountain ash forests'." Functional Plant Biology 37, no. 12 (2010): 1187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/fp10141.

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Wood et al. (2008; FPB 35) concluded their measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) in Eucalyptus regnans F.Muell. forest at Wallaby Creek, Victoria showed that ET differs only slightly between regrowth and oldgrowth, contrary to the findings of previous research. We assert that the conclusions of Wood et al. are invalid and argue that Wood et al. substantially overestimated annual transpiration and rainfall. Monthly whole-forest ET measured by Wood et al. using eddy covariance in a 296-year-old stand sum to ~700 mm year–1; consistent with rainfall of 721 mm year–1 recorded nearby by the Bureau of Meteorology. However, the Wood et al. conclusions were based on 1077 mm annual transpiration at this site, which appears to be estimated from a few months of heat pulse velocity measurements. Transpiration alone cannot be 54% higher than whole-forest ET because the latter includes transpiration, rainfall interception and evaporation from the forest floor. We believe Wood et al. made errors in scaling heat pulse velocities to whole-stand annual transpiration. Their rainfall of 1175 mm year–1 averages 62% higher than at three Bureau of Meteorology and Melbourne Water sites nearby. The paper also contains inaccuracies in reporting of the literature and numerous other errors.

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15

Khaery, Miftahul, Abel Harditio Pratama, Pande Wipradnyana, and Anak Agung Ngurah Gunawan. "Design of Air Pressure Measuring Devices Using a Barometric Pressure 280 (BMP280) Sensor Based on Arduino Uno." BULETIN FISIKA 21, no. 1 (February 1, 2020): 14. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/bf.2020.v21.i01.p03.

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An air pressure gauge instrument has been successfully made using the Arduino Uno-based BMP280 sensor. This instrument was standardized by using a standard measuring instrument at the Central Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) Region III Tuban Bali. It was obtained that the calibration equation is y = 1.0022x - 1.8907 with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99998. This shows that the instrument made has a high degree of accuracy and precision.

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Samrat, Nahidul Hoque, Fiona Smith, Jin Lee, and Andrew Smith. "Testing Variational Bias Correction of Satellite Radiance Data in the ACCESS-C: Australian Convective-Scale NWP System." Sensors 22, no. 23 (December 5, 2022): 9504. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s22239504.

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Radiance observations are typically affected by biases that come mainly from instrument error (scanning or calibration) and inaccuracies of the radiative transfer model. These biases need to be removed for successful assimilation, so a bias correction scheme is crucial in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. Today, most NWP centres, including the Bureau of Meteorology (hereafter, “the Bureau”), correct the biases through variational bias correction (VarBC) schemes, which were originally developed for global models. However, there are difficulties in estimating the biases in a limited-area model (LAM) domain. As a result, the Bureau’s regional NWP system, ACCESS-C (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-City), uses variational bias coefficients obtained directly from its global NWP system ACCESS-G (Global). This study investigates independent radiance bias correction in the data assimilation system for ACCESS-C. We assessed the impact of using independent bias correction for the LAM compared with the operational bias coefficients derived in ACCESS-G between February and April 2020. The results from our experiment show no significant difference between the control and test, suggesting a neutral impact on the forecast. Our findings point out that the VarBC-LAM strategy should be further explored with different settings of predictors and adaptivity for a more extended period and over additional domains.

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Farr, David, and Andrew Tupper. "Exposure to weather risk: a new information paradigm." APPEA Journal 55, no. 2 (2015): 424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj14059.

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When forecasting the weather, simple outcome statements do not always adequately describe what could eventuate for a particular location. Importantly, some weather situations are finely balanced, and cannot be forecast five days in advance; sometimes forecasting 24 hours ahead is difficult, particularly if tropical cyclones are present. To address these weather forecasting complexities, the Bureau of Meteorology is moving towards providing more probability based guidance, such as more information on potential rainfall ranges, wind speed probabilities, wave height probabilities, tropical cyclone formation risk and potential tropical cyclone tracks. For response planning purposes these changes will bring their own challenges. For example, previous chances of a tropical cyclone impact have been described with yes or no forecasts. In the future these risks could be described in percentages. Responding to a 5% risk suggests that 19 out of 20 responses could be perceived to be unnecessary, while on the other hand not responding to a 5% risk could be assessed as dangerous. Developing these new information types is only part of the process. To achieve better practice, it will also be critical to create presentation strategies that express the content in a usable manner, work with clients so they gain maximum benefit from the guidance, and enable clients to develop response plans that are aligned with the forecasts. The Bureau of Meteorology is seeking to work in a closer partnership with the resource sector on this to help maximise operational efficiencies, while ensuring a safe working environment.

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18

Hudson, Debra, Oscar Alves, Harry H. Hendon, Eun-Pa Lim, Guoqiang Liu, Jing-Jia Luo, Craig MacLachlan, et al. "Corrigendum to: ACCESS-S1: The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 70, no. 1 (2020): 393. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es17009_co.

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ACCESS-S1 will be the next version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal prediction system, due to become operational in early 2018. The multiweek and seasonal performance of ACCESS-S1 has been evaluated based on a 23-year hindcast set and compared to the current operational system, POAMA. The system has considerable enhancements compared to POAMA, including higher vertical and horizontal resolution of the component models and state-ofthe-art physics parameterisation schemes. ACCESS-S1 is based on the UK Met Office GloSea5-GC2 seasonal prediction system, but has enhancements to the ensemble generation strategy to make it appropriate for multi-week forecasting, and a larger ensemble size.ACCESS-S1 has markedly reduced biases in the mean state of the climate, both globally and over Australia, compared to POAMA. ACCESS-S1 also better predicts the early stages of the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (through the predictability barrier) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, as well as multi-week variations of the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation — all important drivers of Australian climate variability. There is an overall improvement in the skill of the forecasts of rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) over Australia on multi-week timescales compared to POAMA. On seasonal timescales the differences between the two systems are generally less marked. ACCESS-S1 has improved seasonal forecasts over Australia for the austral spring season compared to POAMA, with particularly good forecast reliability for rainfall and Tmax. However, forecasts of seasonal mean Tmax are noticeably less skilful over eastern Australia for forecasts of late autumn and winter compared to POAMA.The study has identified scope for improvement of ACCESS-S in the future, particularly 1) reducing rainfall errors in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions, and 2) initialising the land surface with realistic soil moisture rather than climatology. The latter impacts negatively on the skill of the temperature forecasts over eastern Australia and is being addressed in the next version of the system, ACCESS-S2.

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Broomhall, M., B. Berzins, I. Grant, L. Majewski, M. Willmott, A. Burton, L. Paterson, B. Santos, D. Jones, and Y. Kuleshov. "Investigating the Australian Bureau of Meteorology GMS satellite archive for use in tropical cyclone reanalyses." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 64, no. 3 (September 2014): 167–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/2.6403.001.

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20

Peace, Mika, Joseph Charney, and John Bally. "Lessons Learned from Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Research and Implications for Operational Fire Prediction and Meteorological Products Provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian Fire Agencies." Atmosphere 11, no. 12 (December 21, 2020): 1380. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121380.

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Coupled fire-atmosphere models are simulators that integrate a fire component and an atmospheric component, with the objective of capturing interactions between the fire and atmosphere. As a fire releases energy in the combustion process, the surrounding atmosphere adjusts in response to the energy fluxes; coupled fire-atmosphere (CFA) models aim to resolve the processes through which these adjustments occur. Several CFA models have been developed internationally, mostly by meteorological institutions and primarily for use as a research tool. Research studies have provided valuable insights into some of the atmospheric processes surrounding a fire. The potential to run CFA models in real time is currently limited due to the intensive computational requirements. In addition, there is a need for systematic verification to establish their accuracy and the appropriate circumstances for their use. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing relevant and accurate meteorological information to Australian fire agencies to inform decisions for the protection of life and property and to support hazard management activities. The inclusion of temporally and spatially detailed meteorological fields that adjust in response to the energy released by a fire is seen as a component in developing fire prediction systems that capture some of the most impactful fire and weather behavior. The Bureau’s ten-year research and development plan includes a commitment to developing CFA models, with the objective of providing enhanced services to Australian fire agencies. This paper discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

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Le Marshall, J., P. Lehmann, G. Weymouth, and R. Potts. "Sounding the lower atmosphere using a ground-based hyperspectral infrared sounder - the Bureau of Meteorology AERI." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 58, no. 03 (September 2009): 181–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/2.5803.003.

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22

Schulz, Eric W., Jeffrey D. Kepert, and Diana J. M. Greenslade. "An Assessment of Marine Surface Winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Numerical Weather Prediction Systems." Weather and Forecasting 22, no. 3 (June 1, 2007): 613–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf996.1.

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Abstract A method for routinely verifying numerical weather prediction surface marine winds with satellite scatterometer winds is introduced. The marine surface winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational global and regional numerical weather prediction systems are evaluated. The model marine surface layer is described. Marine surface winds from the global and limited-area models are compared with observations, both in situ (anemometer) and remote (scatterometer). A 2-yr verification shows that wind speeds from the regional model are typically underestimated by approximately 5%, with a greater bias in the meridional direction than the zonal direction. The global model also underestimates the surface winds by around 5%–10%. A case study of a significant marine storm shows that where larger errors occur, they are due to an underestimation of the storm intensity, rather than to biases in the boundary layer parameterizations.

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Grundstein, Andrew, and Earl Cooper. "Assessment of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wet bulb globe temperature model using weather station data." International Journal of Biometeorology 62, no. 12 (October 3, 2018): 2205–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1624-1.

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Marshall, John Le, Yi Xiao, David Howard, Chris Tingwell, Jeff Freeman, Paul Gregory, Tan Le, et al. "First results from the generation and assimilation of 10-minute atmospheric motion vectors in the Australian region." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 66, no. 1 (2016): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es16003.

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Ten-minute interval infrared and visible satellite images, available from MTSAR-1R (Himawari-6) for a limited period over and around Australia, have been used to generate atmospheric motion vectors. These vectors—which were available every 10 minutes—have been quality controlled, error characterised and assimilated into the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's next generation operational regional forecast model as part of the new operational database. Results from this study indicate that this high temporal resolution imagery has the ability to produce high spatial and temporal density atmospheric motion vectors, and the quality of these vectors is such that they have the potential to improve numerical analysis and prognosis.

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RIKUS, Lawrie. "Validating Basic Surface Variables in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Model with CEOP EOP3 In-situ Data." Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 85A (2007): 73–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85a.73.

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Vizard, A. L., G. A. Anderson, and D. J. Buckley. "Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997–2005." Meteorological Applications 12, no. 04 (December 16, 2005): 343. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s135048270500191x.

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Tongkukut, Seni Herlina J. "El-NINO DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN DI MANADO SULAWESI UTARA." JURNAL ILMIAH SAINS 11, no. 1 (April 1, 2011): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.35799/jis.11.1.2011.51.

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Telah dilakukan analisis El-Nino dan pengaruhnya terhadap curah hujan di Manado Sulut dengan menggunakan data curah hujan bulanan dan Southern Oscillation Index SOI selama thn 1999-2009. Data curah hujan diperoleh dari BMKG Kayuwatu Manado Sulut dan data SOI diunduh dari website Biro Meteorologi Australia BoM. Analisis dilakukan dengan analisis regresi linear sederhana. Diperoleh hasil bahwa curah hujan kota Manado secara umum dari thn 1999-2008 dipengaruhi oleh SOI namun pada thn 2009 ketika terjadi El-nino, curah hujan bulanan Manado tidak dipengaruhi oleh efek El-nino. Hal ini karena pada saat yang sama suhu muka laut perairan Indonesia juga menghangat. EL-NINO AND ITS EFFECT ON RAINFALL IN MANADONORTH SULAWESIABSTRACTAnalysis of El-Nino and its effect on rainfall in Manado, North Sulawesi, using monthly rainfall data and the Southern Oscillation Index SOI during the years 1999-2009 has been carried out. Rainfall data obtained from BMKG Kayuwatu Manado and SOI data downloaded from the website of Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The analysis was performed with simple linear regression analysis. The results obtained indicate that rainfall in Manado , in general, was influenced by SOI from the years 1999-2008, but when there is an El-Nino in 2009, monthly rainfall in Manado is not affected by the El-Nino effect. This is due to, at the same time, sea surface temperature in Indonesian territory are also warm.

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Nairn, John, Bertram Ostendorf, and Peng Bi. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 11 (November 8, 2018): 2494. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112494.

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The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.

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Pranowo, Widodo S., and Sugiarta Wirasantosa. "TIDAL REGIMS OF ARAFURA AND TIMOR SEA." Marine Research in Indonesia 36, no. 1 (October 7, 2018): 21–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/mri.v36i1.525.

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Tidal range in the Arafura and Teimor Sea region is estimated from the actual field records collected by five tidal stations during March 2011. These stations include Rote and Saumlaki tidal stations of Badan Koordinasi Survei dan Pemetaan Nasional (Bakosurtanal) Indonesia, and Broome, Darwin and Groote Eylandt tidal stations of Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). In addition to data from these stations, datasets of sea surface height obtained from Topex/Poseidon altimetry at seven (7) virtual stations were used. Generally, the results of this study are in agreement with that of Wyrtki (1961). However, by utilizing spectral analysis and form factor, this study shows difference in terms of tidal types from that of Wyrtki's, particularly at Karumba and Groote Eylandt stations.

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Azka, Mukhamad Adib, Tesla Kadar Dzikiro, Juni Tika Simanjuntak, and Paulus Agus Winarso. "KAJIAN KONDISI ATMOSFER TERKAIT BANJIR DI KABUPATEN CILACAP PADA TANGGAL 7 OKTOBER 2017." Prosiding SNFA (Seminar Nasional Fisika dan Aplikasinya) 3 (February 28, 2019): 173. http://dx.doi.org/10.20961/prosidingsnfa.v3i0.28540.

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Abstract: There have been floods in a number of areas of Cilacap Regency on Saturday, October 7, 2017. The flood was caused by extreme rainfall that occurred since Saturday (7/10) in the morning. The rainfall recorded at the Cilacap Meteorological Station falls into the extreme category because it reaches above 150 mm per day. These conditions indicate a significant atmospheric disturbance. Therefore, the incident was interesting to study related to the atmospheric conditions at that time. This study aims to describe atmospheric conditions on a global scale, regional scale, and local scale. The data used include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which includes Sea Surface Temperature (SPL) and its anomalies and Isobars; from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase diagram, reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which includes streamline, relative humidity, vorticity, and vertical velocity, surface data from Ogimet and Himawari 8 Satellite data from the Sub Division of BMKG Satellite Image Management. The results of the study showed that extreme rain that caused the flooding was due to the presence of active La Nina, active MJO, shear, and high humidity.Abstrak: Telah terjadi banjir di sejumlah wilayah Kabupaten Cilacap pada hari Sabtu 7 Oktober 2017. Banjir tersebut diakibatkan oleh curah hujan ekstrem yang terjadi sejak Sabtu (7/10) dinihari. Curah hujan yang tercatat pada Stasiun Meteorologi Cilacap masuk dalam kategori ekstrem karena mencapai di atas 150 mm per hari. Kondisi tersebut menandakan adanya gangguan atmosfer yang cukup signifikan. Oleh karena itu, kejadian tersebut menarik untuk dikaji terkait dengan kondisi atmosfer pada saat itu. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan kondisi atmosfer pada skala global, skala regional, dan skala lokal. Data-data yang digunakan antara lain dari National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), yang meliputi suhu permukaan laut (SPL) dan anomalinya serta Isobar; dari Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) yaitu nilai Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dan diagram fase Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), data renalisis dari European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) yang meliputi streamline, kelembaban relatif, vortisitas, dan vertical velocity, data permukaan dari ogimet serta data Satelit Himawari 8 dari Sub Bidang Pengelolaan Citra Satelit BMKG. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa hujan ekstrem yang menyebabkan banjir tersebut dikarenakan adanya La Nina aktif, MJO aktif, pola shear, dan kelembaban udara yang tinggi.

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Ali, M. M., Uppalapati Naga Tanusha, C. Purna Chand, Borra Himasri, Mark A. Bourassa, and Yangxing Zheng. "Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on North Indian Ocean Cyclone Intensity." Atmosphere 12, no. 12 (November 24, 2021): 1554. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121554.

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The influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the intensity of the Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean is investigated through a machine learning algorithm. The magnitude of wind, considered as a proxy for the intensity, is taken from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), and the MJO information for 1974–2019 is from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. These two observations have been collocated and the influence of MJO indices on the wind speed was studied using an artificial neural network technique. The scatter index, defined as the root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to the input data mean, varies from 0.45 for depressions to 0.03 for the super cyclonic storms, indicating that the MJO index is another parameter that should be investigated in cyclone activity studies.

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Haidar, Ali, and Brijesh Verma. "Monthly rainfall forecasting using neural networks for sugarcane regions in Eastern Australia." Water Supply 17, no. 4 (June 20, 2016): 907–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.099.

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Sugarcane is an important agricultural crop grown on the east coast of Australia. The timing and amount of rainfall is critical in determining both the yield of sugar and scheduling of harvesting operations. Rainfall forecasts issued through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are based on general circulation models (GCMs) and have a poor skill levels. They are also limited in utility to end-users such as farmers as they cover very broad geographical areas and are only issued as probabilities above or below median. This paper presents an alternative approach for forecasting monthly rainfall with up to 12 month lead-time based on machine learning, in particular neural networks. Monthly rainfall forecasts have been developed for the eight locations in Eastern Australia at 3 and 12 month lead-time. The accuracy of the forecasts has been assessed relative to a skill scale with 0% representing climatology (the long term average) and 100% representing a perfect forecast (observation). On this scale, neural network forecasts are typically in the range 39.9–68% for all months using a single month optimization. This compares very favorably with forecasts using GCM from the Bureau that have skill levels only in the range −20% to 20%.

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Teimori, Gholamheidar, Mohammad Reza Monazzam, Parvin Nassiri, Farideh Golbabaei, Somayeh Farhang Dehghan, Mohammad Javad Ghannadzadeh, and Mehdi Asghari. "Applicability of the model presented by Australian Bureau of Meteorology to determine WBGT in outdoor workplaces: A case study." Urban Climate 32 (June 2020): 100609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100609.

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Chen, Fang, Xi Chen, and Xinjian Zhang. "An Empirical Study on System Dynamics Model for Sustainable Development of Air Traffic Control Units." Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S 28, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eces-2021-0009.

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Abstract With the rapid growth of flight volume, the contradiction between insufficient support capability of air traffic control (ATC) units and large demand for development ultimately hinders their sustainable and safe development. The article aims at the leverage point of the contradiction between supply and demand so as to provide scientific safety policies. Based on the system archetype “growth and underinvestment”, from the perspective of the feedback relationships between support capability, safety, and development, the causality of the dynamic factors of control, communication, navigation, and surveillance, as well as meteorology and information subsystems was studied. Then, a system dynamics model for the sustainable and safe development of ATC units was established. Taking the Tianjin ATC sub-bureau as an example, policy suggestions for sustainable and safe development were put forward according to the scenario simulation results.

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Gravitiani, Evi, and Suryanto Suryanto. "Valuing the Economic Impact of Flood Mitigationin Central Java, Indonesia." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review 2, no. 1 (March 18, 2017): 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2017.2.1(6).

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Objective - This research aims to map and identify the areas vulnerable to flood in Central Java Province, Indonesia, using Geography Information System (GIS) and value the economic impact on flood mitigation using Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM). Methodology/Technique - The data regarding geographical, demographical, socio-economic, and topographical condition collected from local governments in Central Java Province, Meteorology and Geophysics Board, the Statistical Bureau, and Planning and Development Boar. Findings - Spatial analysis with GIS provides evidence that Surakarta, Sragen, and Sukoharjo districts are more vulnerable to flood than other districts in Central Java Province. This evidence points the need to conduct a thorough study on these areas. Novelty - This research contributes to empirical study, methodology, and policy implications. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Spatial Analysis; Flood Impact; Local Wisdom; Economic Valuation; Willingness to Pay. JEL Classification: C21, Q51, Q54.

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Pandey, K. S., H. Shrestha, and L. P. Devkota. "Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nepal: Case of Kavre and Jumla districts." Nepal Journal of Environmental Science 2 (December 8, 2014): 43–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/njes.v2i0.22740.

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The study the analyzed relationship of climate change with agricultural production in Kavre and Jumla districts. The specific objective of the study was to find out the dimension and linkage between agricultural production and climatic parameters in Kavre and Jumla. Time series data were analysed for the study. The data was sourced from the Department of Hydrology Meteorology, Department of Agriculture, and National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics, linear analysis test and back ward difference filter were the analytical tools used to determine the impact of climate change on productivity. During harvest period, the correlation of rice yield with temperature and rainfall was negative at Kavre but positive at Jumla. Similarly, the correlation of wheat yield with temperature and rainfall was positive at Kavre but negative at Jumla. The result showed that extreme fluctuation in weather caused negative impact on production in Jumla in compared to Kavre districts.

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Harper, Kristine, Louis W. Uccellini, Eugenia Kalnay, Kenneth Carey, and Lauren Morone. "50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88, no. 5 (May 1, 2007): 639–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-5-639.

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The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), National Weather Association, and American Meteorological Society (AMS) cosponsored a “Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction,” on 14–17 June 2004 at the University of Maryland, College Park in College Park, Maryland. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the United States started with the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) on 1 July 1954, staffed by members of the U.S. Weather Bureau, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. The origins of NCEP, AFWA, and FNMOC can all be traced to the JNWPU. The symposium celebrated the pioneering developments in NWP and the remarkable improvements in forecast skill and support of the nation's economy, well being, and national defense achieved over the last 50 years. This essay was inspired by the presentations from that symposium.

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Fajarianti, Rahpeni, Deffi Munadiyat Putri, and Paulus Agus Winarso. "IDENTIFIKASI PENGARUH MJO FASE 3 TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN DI PULAU SUMATERA DAN JAWA (STUDI KASUS 14 – 17 OKTOBER 2018)." Prosiding SNFA (Seminar Nasional Fisika dan Aplikasinya) 3 (February 28, 2019): 228. http://dx.doi.org/10.20961/prosidingsnfa.v3i0.28552.

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Abstract:. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a wave in tropical atmosphere that moving eastward from Indian ocean to Pacific Ocean for a period 30 – 60 days. There are many research that explain when MJO is active in phases 2, 3 and 4 it affects convective activities in the Indonesian Maritime Continent. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of MJO in phase 3 on temporal rainfall intensity in Sumatra and Java island on 14 – 17 October 2018. This study uses the descriptive analysis method using parameter such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Phase MJO diagram from Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and vertical velocity data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and also raw data of HCAI Himawari-8 satellite to monitor cloud formation on Sumatra and Java island and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) to determine its rainfall distribution on 14 – 17 October 2018. The active MJO in phase 3 causing an increase in convective activity on the Sumatra. The SST value of 29.50 – 300 Celcius supports the occurrence of sufficient evaporation to produce convective clouds with a vertical velocity of less than -0.12 Pa/s (strong updraft) so as to form Cumulonimbus clouds which cause heavy rain intensity which can cause floods. However, in Java Island the influence of MJO was less significant due to the influence of relatively lower sea surface temperatures in the south of Java island so that it is not strong enough to form convective clouds that produce heavy rain.Abstrak: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) merupakan gelombang di kawasan tropis yang menjalar dari Barat (Samudera Hindia) ke timur (Samudera Pasifik) dengan periode 30 – 60 hari. Banyak penelitian menjelaskan bahwa pada saat MJO aktif pada fase 2, 3 dan 4 berpengaruh terhadap giatnya aktivitas konvektif di Benua Maritim Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh MJO di fase 3 terhadap intensitas curah hujan secara temporal di wilayah Pulau Sumatra dan Pulau Jawa pada 14 – 17 Oktober 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis deskriptif dengan parameter antara lain : Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) dan diagram fase MJO yang diambil dari Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dan kecepatan vertikal yang diambil dari National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) serta raw data HCAI satelit Himawari-8 untuk memonitoring pembentukan awan di Pulau Sumatera dan Jawa dan data Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) yang didapatkan dari Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) untuk mengetahui distribusi curah hujannya pada 14 – 17 Oktober 2018. Aktifnya MJO pada fase 3 menyebabkan peningkatan aktivitas konvektif di Pulau Sumatera. Nilai SST sebesar 29.50 – 300 Celcius mendukung terjadinya penguapan yang cukup untuk menghasilkan awan konvektif dengan kecepatan vertikal kurang dari -0.12 Pa/s (updraft kuat) sehingga membentuk awan Cumulonimbus yang menyebabkan intensitas hujan lebat yang mampu menimbulkan bencana banjir. Sedangkan di Pulau Jawa pengaruh MJO kurang signifikan akibat pengaruh suhu permukaan laut di selatan Jawa yang relatif lebih rendah sehingga tidak cukup kuat untuk membentuk awan konvektif yang menghasilkan hujan lebat.

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Budd, W. F., P. A. Reid, and L. J. Minty. "Antarctic moisture flux and net accumulation from global atmospheric analyses." Annals of Glaciology 21 (1995): 149–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/s0260305500015743.

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Previous attempts to derive the Antarctic surface net accumulation distribution from atmospheric-moisture fluxes, in reasonable agreement with the observed distribution, have encountered many difficulties. The present analysis uses the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Global Atmospheric Assimilation and Prediction Scheme (GASP), which has been operational since 1989, to derive the net air-mass and moisture fluxes over the Antarctic. It is shown that the annual mean net surface accumulation closely resembles the glaciologically observed distribution and provides a physical basis for the observed pattern, through the moisture transports. The variations with latitude and elevation and through the annual cycle are also well reproduced. Although some mass-closure errors still exist, they are expected to become insignificant with the new generation of improved analysis schemes. Consequently the atmospheric analyses can provide a sound basis for both assessing the performance of global climate models in simulating Antarctic accumulation rates and monitoring long-term changes which may occur with global warming.

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Horton, Brian, and Ross Corkrey. "A weighted coefficient model for estimation of Australian daily soil temperature at depths of 5cm to 100cm based on air temperature and rainfall." Soil Research 49, no. 4 (2011): 305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/sr10151.

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Soil temperatures are related to air temperature and rainfall on the current day and preceding days, and this can be expressed in a non-linear relationship to provide a weighted value for the effect of air temperature or rainfall based on days lag and soil depth. The weighted minimum and maximum air temperatures and weighted rainfall can then be combined with latitude and a seasonal function to estimate soil temperature at any depth in the range 5–100 cm. The model had a root mean square deviation of 1.21–1.85°C for minimum, average, and maximum soil temperature for all weather stations in Australia (mainland and Tasmania), except for maximum soil temperature at 5 and 10 cm, where the model was less precise (3.39° and 2.52°, respectively). Data for this analysis were obtained from 32–40 Bureau of Meteorology weather stations throughout Australia and the proposed model was validated using 5-fold cross-validation.

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Budd, W. F., P. A. Reid, and L. J. Minty. "Antarctic moisture flux and net accumulation from global atmospheric analyses." Annals of Glaciology 21 (1995): 149–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0260305500015743.

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Previous attempts to derive the Antarctic surface net accumulation distribution from atmospheric-moisture fluxes, in reasonable agreement with the observed distribution, have encountered many difficulties. The present analysis uses the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Global Atmospheric Assimilation and Prediction Scheme (GASP), which has been operational since 1989, to derive the net air-mass and moisture fluxes over the Antarctic. It is shown that the annual mean net surface accumulation closely resembles the glaciologically observed distribution and provides a physical basis for the observed pattern, through the moisture transports. The variations with latitude and elevation and through the annual cycle are also well reproduced. Although some mass-closure errors still exist, they are expected to become insignificant with the new generation of improved analysis schemes. Consequently the atmospheric analyses can provide a sound basis for both assessing the performance of global climate models in simulating Antarctic accumulation rates and monitoring long-term changes which may occur with global warming.

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Schulz, E. W., M. A. Grosenbaugh, L. Pender, D. J. M. Greenslade, and T. W. Trull. "Mooring Design Using Wave-State Estimate from the Southern Ocean." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 28, no. 10 (October 1, 2011): 1351–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-10-05033.1.

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Abstract The Southern Ocean Flux Station was deployed near 47°S, 140°E. The extreme wind and wave conditions at this location require appropriate mooring design, which includes dynamic fatigue analysis and static analysis. An accurate estimate of the wave conditions was essential. A motion reference unit was deployed in a nearby test mooring for 6 months. The motion data provided estimates of significant wave height that agreed well with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wave model, increasing confidence in the model performance in the Southern Ocean. The results of the dynamic fatigue analysis using three input wave datasets and implications for the mooring design are described. The design analysis predicts the fatigue life for critical mooring components and guided the final selection of links and chain shackles. The three input wave climatologies do not differ greatly, and this is reflected in minimal changes to mooring components for each of the fatigue analyses.

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Schepen, Andrew, Tongtiegang Zhao, Q. J. Wang, Senlin Zhou, and Paul Feikema. "Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 10 (October 10, 2016): 4117–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016.

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Abstract. Statistical seasonal forecasts of 3-month streamflow totals are released in Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology and updated on a monthly basis. The forecasts are often released in the second week of the forecast period, due to the onerous forecast production process. The current service relies on models built using data for complete calendar months, meaning the forecast production process cannot begin until the first day of the forecast period. Somehow, the bureau needs to transition to a service that provides forecasts before the beginning of the forecast period; timelier forecast release will become critical as sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts are developed. Increasing the forecast lead time to one month ahead is not considered a viable option for Australian catchments that typically lack any predictability associated with snowmelt. The bureau's forecasts are built around Bayesian joint probability models that have antecedent streamflow, rainfall and climate indices as predictors. In this study, we adapt the modelling approach so that forecasts have any number of days of lead time. Daily streamflow and sea surface temperatures are used to develop predictors based on 28-day sliding windows. Forecasts are produced for 23 forecast locations with 0–14- and 21-day lead time. The forecasts are assessed in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skill score and reliability metrics. CRPS skill scores, on average, reduce monotonically with increase in days of lead time, although both positive and negative differences are observed. Considering only skilful forecast locations, CRPS skill scores at 7-day lead time are reduced on average by 4 percentage points, with differences largely contained within +5 to −15 percentage points. A flexible forecasting system that allows for any number of days of lead time could benefit Australian seasonal streamflow forecast users by allowing more time for forecasts to be disseminated, comprehended and made use of prior to the commencement of a forecast season. The system would allow for forecasts to be updated if necessary.

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Lewis, John M. "A Forecaster’s Story: Robert H. Johns." E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology 2, no. 7 (September 28, 2021): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.55599/ejssm.v2i7.12.

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The stages in the life of a severe storms forecaster, Robert H. Johns, are reconstructed from information in a series of interviews. The traditional interview format, question-and-answer mode, has been converted to a first-person narrative that leads to a more-continuous train of thought. The storyline begins by describing Johns’ entrainment into meteorology as a youngster. By virtue of his contact and conversations with farmers in rural Indiana, he became interested in weather’s impact on the farmers and their crop yields. Early stimulation also came from a challenging weather project in the 6th grade and reading of George Stewart’s novel Storm. From these experiences, Bob Johns decided to pursue a science career in service to society. This service took the form of work as a weather forecaster for the United States Weather Bureau (USWB)/National Weather Service (NWS). The arduous path to severe storms forecaster is traced by highlighting his youthful experiences, his academic training, and the stepwise progression from student trainee to lead forecaster at the Severe Local Storms (SELS) unit of the USWB/NWS.

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Jackson, Stephen. "Thornthwaite Moisture Index and Climate Zones in the Northern Territory." Australian Geomechanics Journal 57, no. 3 (September 1, 2022): 69–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.56295/agj5733.

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The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) is an established climate parameter for geotechnical engineers to categorise a site and enable estimation of seasonal ground movements associated with soil moisture changes. TMI assessment and mapping for the Northern Territory are presented, using the TMI calculation method commonly used for similar recent studies elsewhere in Australia. The assessment included the analysis of 17 sites within the Northern Territory and one site in Queensland which has enabled development of Climate Zone classifications. Climate data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to calculate the TMI on a ‘year by year’ basis over a target period of 29 years (1990 to 2019). Related work in Queensland (Fox 2002) and Western Australia (Hu et al, 2016) has guided the development of the Northern Territory Climate Zone Map. Further work is required to characterise the soil moisture behaviour in arid zones. A general lack of guidance in AS2870 (2011) for arid areas, including much of the Northern Territory, could be addressed with further research and development.

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Parker, Albert, and Clifford D. Ollier. "Discussion of the “Hottest Year on Record” in Australia." Quaestiones Geographicae 36, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 79–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2017-0006.

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Abstract The global temperature trends provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are artificially exaggerated due to subjective and unidirectional adjustments of recorded values. The present paper aims to promote the use of the raw stations’ data corrected only for urban heat island formation. The longer temperature records of Australia exhibit significant oscillations with a strong quasi-60 years’ signature of downward phases 1880 to 1910, 1940 to 1970 and 2000 to present, and upwards phases 1910 to 1940 and 1970 to 2000. A longer oscillation with downward phase until 1910 and an upwards phase afterwards is also detected. The warming since 1910 occurred at a nearly constant rate. Over the full length of the long Australian records since the end of the 1800s, there is no sign of warming or increased occurrence of extreme events. The monthly highest and mean maximum temperatures do not exhibit any positive trend. The differences between monthly highest and lowest, or monthly mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures, are all reducing because of urban heat island formation.

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Forbes, AMG. "Wind stress in the Australian coastal experiment region." Marine and Freshwater Research 38, no. 4 (1987): 475. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9870475.

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During the 6 months of the Australian Coastal Experiment (ACE), recordings were made by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology of several meteorological parameters at a number of coastal stations and by the CSIRO at several offshore locations to complement the ACE current-meter and sea-level gauge array. The aim was to examine the wind field over the New South Wales coast and so determine the magnitude of long shelf wind stress, which might locally force coastal trapped waves (CTW). Wind stress decreased equatorward, with the greatest potential for local CTW forcing lying on the southernmost continental shelf near Gabo Island. No significant variation in the magnitude of wind stress across the shelf within 20 km of the coast was observed. Despite the low sampling frequency at most coastai stations (twice daily, a subset of well-exposed coastal stations was sufficient to characterize the wind field over the entire region. The study revealed equatorward phase propagation of 9.2 and 12.1 m s-1 at periods of 4.4 and 10.5 days respectively.

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Schroeter, Benjamin J. E., Phil Reid, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, and Kelvin Michael. "Antarctic Verification of the Australian Numerical Weather Prediction Model." Weather and Forecasting 34, no. 4 (August 1, 2019): 1081–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0171.1.

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Abstract The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Global (ACCESS-G) features an atmosphere-only numerical weather prediction (NWP) suite used operationally by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to forecast weather conditions for the Antarctic. The current operational version of the forecast model, the Australian Parallel Suite v2 (APS2), has been used operationally since early 2016. To date, the performance of the model has been largely unverified for the Antarctic and anecdotal reports suggest challenges for model performance in the region. This study investigates the performance of ACCESS-G south of 50°S over 2017 and finds that model performance degrades toward the poles and in proportion to forecast horizon against a range of performance metrics. The model exhibits persistent negative surface and mean sea level pressure biases around the Adelie Land coast, which is linked to the underrepresentation of model winds to the west, and driven by positive screen temperature biases that inhibit modeled katabatic outflow. These results suggest that an improved representation of boundary layer parameterization could be implemented to improve model performance in the region.

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Zhao, Mei, Harry H. Hendon, Oscar Alves, Guoqiang Liu, and Guomin Wang. "Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño Predictability in the Early Twenty-First Century." Journal of Climate 29, no. 18 (September 2, 2016): 6805–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0876.1.

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Abstract Predictive skill for El Niño in the equatorial eastern Pacific across a range of forecast models declined sharply in the early twenty-first century relative to what was achieved in the late twentieth century despite ongoing improvements of forecast systems. This decline coincided with a shift in Pacific climate to an enhanced east–west surface temperature gradient across the Pacific and a stronger Walker circulation at the end of the twentieth century. Using seasonal forecast sensitivity experiments with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model POAMA2.4, the authors show that this shift in background climate acted to weaken key ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that amplify eastern Pacific El Niño, thus resulting in weaker variability that is less predictable. These results indicate that extreme El Niños, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, were conditioned by the background climate and so were favored to occur in the late twentieth century. However, anticipating future changes in El Niño variability and predictability is an outstanding challenge because causes and prediction of low-frequency variations of Pacific climate have not yet been demonstrated.

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Kala, Jatin, Alyce Sala Tenna, Daniel Rudloff, Julia Andrys, Ole Rieke, and Thomas J. Lyons. "Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model in simulating fire weather for the south-west of Western Australia." International Journal of Wildland Fire 29, no. 9 (2020): 779. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf19111.

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate fire weather for the south-west of Western Australia (SWWA) over multiple decades at a 5-km resolution using lateral boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim reanalysis. Simulations were compared with observations at Australian Bureau of Meteorology meteorological stations and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) was used to quantify fire weather. Results showed that, overall, the WRF reproduced the annual cumulative FFDI at most stations reasonably well, with most biases in the FFDI ranging between –600 and 600. Biases were highest at stations within the metropolitan region. The WRF simulated the geographical gradients in the FFDI across the domain well. The source of errors in the FFDI varied markedly between the different stations, with no one particular variable able to account for the errors at all stations. Overall, this study shows that the WRF is a useful model for simulating fire weather for SWWA, one of the most fire-prone regions in Australia.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Bureau of Meteorology'

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