Academic literature on the topic 'Beijing (China) – Buildings, structures, etc'

This paper first analyzes the climate characteristics of five typical cities in China, including Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Kunming. Then, based on Grasshopper, Ladybug and Honeybee analysis software, according to the indoor layout of typical residential buildings, this research extracts design parameters such as the depth and width of different rooms and their window-to-wall ratios etc., to establish a climate responsive optimization design process with indoor lighting environment comfort, with heating and cooling demand as the objective functions. Meanwhile, based on Monte Carlo simulation data, ANN (Artificial Neural Network) is used to establish a prediction model to analyze the sensitivity of interior design parameters under different typical cities’ climatic conditions. The study results show that the recommended values for the total width and total depth of indoor units under the climatic conditions of each city are both approximately 14.97 m and 7.88 m. Among them, under the climatic conditions of Harbin and Shenzhen, the design parameters of residential interiors can take the recommended value of UDI optimal or nZEB optimal. While the recommended values of window-to-wall ratios for the north bedroom, master bedroom and living room in Shanghai residential interiors are 0.26, 0.32 and 0.33, respectively. The recommended value of the window-to-wall ratio of the master bedroom in Kunming residences is 0.36, and that of the remaining rooms is between 0.15 and 0.18. The recommended values of window-to-wall ratios for the master bedroom and living room in Beijing residences are 0.41 and 0.59, respectively, and that for the remaining rooms are 0.15. The multi-objective optimization process based on parametric performance simulation used in the study can effectively assist architects in making energy-saving design decisions in the preliminary stage, allowing architects to have a case to follow in the actual design operation process.

Ground settlement, especially the ground surface settlement induced by subway tunneling is an important issue. However, there is no an agreed standard for controlling ground surface settlement during the subway construction at present. The control standard of ground surface settlement was studied using the methods of statistical analysis and numerical simulation based on the running tunnel in Beijing subway. According to the research results, a conclusion could be obtained that the ground surface settlement can be controlled within 40 mm using the general construction measures in Beijing subway running tunnel construction, and furthermore, the settlement of 40mm will not damage the existing nearby structures and utilities including neighboring buildings, bridges and pipelines, etc. So the control valve of 40 mm is rational, which can be adopted as the control standard of ground surface settlement induced by running tunnel construction in Beijing subway.

A great earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurred on May 12, 2008 (Beijing Time) in Wenchuan, Sichuan Province of China. Leigu town, which adjoins Beichuan county, was the most seriously damaged place in this earthquake. The teaching buildings were destroyed severely and the earthquake disaster phenomena is very typical. In this paper, firstly, the characteristics of structures and the earthquake damage of the teaching buildings in Leigu town are introduced in detail. Secondly, their damage states are calculated by means of structure vulnerability analysis, which are used for comparative analysis with actual damage states, and the influencing factors on seismic behavior are analyzed. Finally, some reasonable suggestions on the reconstruction of teaching buildings after disaster have been given.

In order to assess the vehicle load carrying capacity of existing bridges on the national highway G103 in Beijing, the vehicle load model for the practical traffic flow conditions needs to be determined. Based on the traffic axle load data measured by the weigh-in-motion system and the methods proposed by General Code for Design of Highway Bridges and Culverts (JTG D60-2004) and Code for Design of Highway Reinforced Concrete and Prestressed Concrete Bridges and Culverts (JTG D62-2004), the vehicle load parameters under practical traffic flow conditions are investigated. A typical 6-axle vehicle model with a 2-1-3 axial pattern is proposed by using the statistical analysis of total weight, axial weight, etc. The live load effects of Daliushu No. 2 Bridge, one highway bridge on the national highway G103, are analyzed using the proposed model and compared to the vehicle load model given in the Chinese code. The results show that there are great differences in the vehicle load parameters and the live load effects from the proposed vehicle load model increased by 20–50% compared with the model given by the code. The overweight vehicles are potential threats to the safety of existing bridges.

In recent years, a large number of incidents of external fire spread up high rise buildings happened in the world. One of main reasons is that combustible organic materials, EPS, Polyurethane, etc, are used in external thermal insulation system (ETIS) for energy conservation purpose. In some incidents, fire spread in combustible organic materials couple with that from window to window make it impossible for fire fighters to prevent the external vertical fire spread up high rise buildings and caused severe damage to structures and loss of life and property. In this paper, some typical external wall fire hazards in China are described briefly, and then relative research progresses are presented. Furthermore, some research needs and possible directions of future research are proposed.

Subsiding soils are structurally unstable and are common and Russia (Northern Caucasus, Western Siberia, etc.) as well as worldwide (China, Mongolia, Central Asia, North America, etc.). Construction and operation of buildings and structures on such soils are associated with the nonuniform subsiding of soil due to water saturation, which causes excessive deformations in basements and foundations. The geotechnical and technogenic conditions of Eastern Donbass feature the commonness of subsiding loess soils and undermining of industrial areas prone to waterlogging. The three mentioned factors have a negative impact on ground facilities due to nonuniform vertical and horizontal deformations of the Earth’s surface. Despite considerable scientific progress in studying the surficial deformations attributable to various factors, the concurrent effects of undermining, technogenic waterlogging, and manifestation of subsiding properties on the condition of buildings and structures are currently understudied. This paper proposes a method for predicting the deformation of subsiding massifs in the undermined areas of Eastern Donbass. The research team has developed an analytical method for assessing the damage to a typical urban structure simultaneously exposed to soil subsidence and undermining.

High-rise buildings usually have more complex architectural structures and hold more people than single-storey buildings. Currently, crowd management under emergent conditions, especially rapid evacuations of high-rise buildings, is a worldwide problem. In this study, a bio-inspired simulation technology extracted from a cell migration process, namely Intelligent Decision System (IDPS), was used to model the dynamic evacuation of high-rise buildings and calculate the evacuation time for different scenarios. This work was motivated by the comparability between the pedestrian movement behavior and cell migration process. Specific structure information of high architecture was also described in IDPS. A case study was done about evacuation simulation of a 12-storey teaching building in China University of Geosciences in Beijing. The simulation results showed that evacuation time varied with different parameters, such as density threshold, interaction probability, walking speed, population distribution, and stair width. With the proper density threshold and good interaction probability, the load balance of staircases and exits can be improved. For staircases with high utilization ratios, it was recommended that the evacuation process can be accelerated by widening the staircases appropriately. Finally, the impact of initial number of evacuees at each floor level was also analyzed in view of safety management.

Traditional folk houses in rural areas of north China are mostly Brick-Wood Building, for those houses draw on local resources, only need simple structures and cost less, which precisely fits the economic conditions in rural areas. However, due to all sorts of reasons, walls of those houses might easily crack, which will bring safety loopholes and panic inhabitants as well. With a village in North China as the study and research subject, first of all, the paper analyzes the locations and patterns of cracks appearing on walls and divided those cracks into eight types; then the causes of wall cracks are primarily explored, and after analysis the author comes to a conclusion that the freeze-thaw action of subsoil, disastrous weather, seismic action, natural ageing and construction quality etc. are directly related to wall cracks, while bearing capacity of foundation soil and ground settlement has no direct relationship with wall cracks.

In modern urban conditions of dense construction, as well as in the production of special works in the mining industry, new quality materials for non-explosive destruction of buildings, structures and rocks are required. Such material is non-explosive expanding mixtures (LDCs). LDCs are used in cases when the destruction of rocks by explosion unacceptable due to the dangerous consequences associated with the violation of stability of rock massif and negative seismic manifestations of the explosion. Non-explosive expanding mixtures are widespread in mining and construction works in many countries: the USA, Japan, Canada, the Czech Republic and others. They are used in the extraction of stone blocks, cutting of oversized, destruction of concrete structures, etc. Specialists of the academic University, research Institute and industry representative developed a product that is not inferior, and even superior to domestic and foreign analogues. The maximum developed pressure on the walls of the hole reaches 187.5 MPa. To date, the Russian market is represented by cheap, but lower in quality LDCs produced in China. Domestic development directly meets all the conditions of the Russian government Decree on import substitution. The article describes the main types of LDCs, the fundamental differences from analogues in the mode of production (firing). The mechanism of impact on the mountain range is considered. The main advantages of this material are indicated. The scope of the compositions is very extensive is the construction work in cramped conditions (ie. near buildings and structures, highways, industrial communications, settlements, in existing shops, etc.), mining of piece stone, crushing array (burrs, oversized, etc.), careful extraction of crystalline materials, work on dismantling of building structures, etc. it is Advisable to use these compounds in those places where it is not possible to use explosives.

We study the property of double sodium layer structures (DSLs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) by a lidar at the low-latitude location of Haikou (20.0° N, 110.1° E), China. From April 2010 to December 2013, 21 DSLs were observed within a total of 377 observation days. DSLs were recorded at middle latitudes of Beijing and Wuhan, China, but were rarely observed at low latitudes. We analyze and discuss characteristics of DSLs such as time of occurrence, peak altitude, FWHM, duration time, etc. At the same time, the critical frequency foEs and the virtual height h'Es of the sporadic E layer Es were observed by an ionosonde over Danzhou (19.0° N, 109.3° E). We discuss such their characteristics as differences of time, differences of altitude compared to DSLs. We used an Nd:YAG laser pumped dye laser to generate the probing beam. The wavelength of the dye laser was set to 589 nm by a sodium fluorescence cell. The backscattered fluorescence photons from the sodium layer were collected by a telescope with the Φ1000 mm primary mirror.

Leung Cheuk Kin.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 2002-2003, design report."
Background --- p.1
Research Study --- p.9
Introduction --- p.9
Basic Information --- p.12
Analysis --- p.21
Conclusion --- p.31
Site Selection / Analysis --- p.32
Design --- p.40
Diagrams --- p.41
Drawings --- p.43
Models --- p.51

Liu Dan.
Thesis submitted in: December 2000.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 162-171).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgements --- p.ii
List of illustrations --- p.iv
Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction: Research Issues and Literature Review --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Questions Raised and Their Significance --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- Review of the Study on Ancestral Hall --- p.3
Chapter 1.3 --- Thesis Goal and Research Method --- p.14
Chapter 1.4 --- Content of the Thesis --- p.21
Chapter 1.5 --- Research Discoveries and References Concerned with Liukeng --- p.21
Chapter Chapter 2 --- Liukeng Village and Its Ancestral Halls --- p.26
Chapter 2.1 --- A Brief Introduction of Liukeng Village --- p.26
Chapter 2.2 --- The Ancestral Halls in Liukeng Village in Different Historic Periods --- p.33
Chapter 2.3 --- The Construction of Ancestral Halls in the Context of Social Development in Various Historical Periods --- p.38
Chapter Chapter3 --- Architectural Character of Ancestral Hall and Its Cause --- p.59
Chapter 3.1 --- Architectural Form of Ancestral Halls --- p.59
Chapter 3.2 --- The Reason for the Variety of Architectural Forms --- p.70
Chapter Chapter 4 --- Zhuanci (Personal Sacrificial Hall) --- p.95
Chapter 4.1 --- The Tradition of Building Zhuanci --- p.95
Chapter 4.2 --- The Function of Zhuanxi and Its Association with Residential Buildings 一 Integrated Architectural Complexes --- p.104
Chapter 4.3 --- The Changes of the Function of the Complex --- p.112
Chapter Chapter 5 --- Ancestral Hall and Sublineage Living Units --- p.118
Chapter Chapter 6 --- The Functional Shift of Ancestral Hall 226}0ؤ Ancestral Halls Used as Dwellings --- p.126
Chapter 6.1 --- Rooms in Ancestral Hall --- p.126
Chapter 6.2 --- "The Phenomenon ""Ancestral Halls Used as Dwellings"" from mid-Qing to the Republican Period" --- p.132
Chapter 6.3 --- A Survey of the Residential Functions of Ancestral Hall --- p.137
Chapter 6.4 --- The Behavioral Setting of Ancestral Hall --- p.145
Chapter Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.151
Appendix --- p.156
Bibliography --- p.162

Chan King Wai Kelvin.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 2004-2005, design report."
Includes bibliographical references (leaf 91).
mongkok and latent anxiety --- p.3
dormant silence --- p.4
zen and concept --- p.5
design approach --- p.6
mongkok --- p.7
precedent studies --- p.12
early design --- p.24
final design sketches --- p.33
diagrams & development --- p.37
FINAL design --- p.48
models --- p.72
perspectives --- p.83

Ng Kai Tik.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 2004-2005, design report."
Includes bibliographical references.
introduction --- p.01
city --- p.03
traditional Chinese garden --- p.05
Chinese opera --- p.35
precedent --- p.39
thesis design
intention --- p.57
programme --- p.59
site --- p.61
process --- p.69
final design --- p.89
plans --- p.109
section --- p.125
detail --- p.126
bibliography --- p.127

Hui Kin Kwun.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 1996-97, design report."
Includes bibliographical references.
Introduction
Client Profile
Landuse Issue
Chapter - --- a reconsideration of amendment of landuse zoning
Site Analysis
Chapter - --- an integration with surrounding environment
Working with Old Building
Chapter - --- a pros and cons on method of preservation
Program
Chapter - --- an identification of the need of the community
Functional Analysis
Chapter - --- "public concourse, community centre, and the linkage with the surroundings"
Chapter - --- linkage of the inside world in the community centre
Massing Analysis
Chapter - --- Design A
Chapter - --- Design B
Chapter - --- Design C
Solid and Void Analysis
Setional Analysis
Final Design
Massing of Final Design
Conceptual Diagram
Circulation Diagram
Diagram of Means of Escape
Building Service Integration
Structural Grid
Appendix
Chapter - --- Interim and Final Presentation Drawings
Chapter - --- Precedence
"Hubertus Association, Netherland"
a statement on the outside and inside world
"City of Refuge, Paris"
the conflict of interest between the pursuance of ideology and practical social need
Chapter - --- Code of practice and regulation for child care centres
Chapter - --- Code of practice and regulation for residential care homes (elderly persons)

Lee Kwong Wai Thomas.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 1996-97, design report."
Includes bibliographical references.
Contents --- p.i
Chapter Part I: --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1 --- Personal Design Objectives --- p.2
Chapter 1.1 --- Personal Design Objectives --- p.2
Chapter 2 --- Project Selection --- p.3
Chapter 2.1 --- Description of Subject --- p.3
Chapter 2.2 --- Description of Clients and Users --- p.3
Chapter 2.3 --- Description of Site and Context --- p.3
Chapter Part II: --- Project Analysis --- p.4
Chapter 3 --- Subject Analysis --- p.5
Chapter 3.1 --- Brief Formation --- p.5
Chapter 3.2 --- Precedents --- p.5
Chapter 3.3 --- Relevant Forms and Typologies --- p.6
Chapter 3.4 --- Appropriate Technologies --- p.6
Chapter 3.5 --- Architectural Language --- p.6
Chapter 4 --- Client/User Analysis --- p.7
Chapter 4.1 --- Functional Relationships --- p.7
Chapter 4.2 --- Organizational Hierarchies --- p.7
Chapter 4.3 --- Activities --- p.7
Chapter 4.4 --- Social Patterns --- p.7
Chapter 4.5 --- Schedule of Accomodation --- p.8
Chapter 5 --- Site/Context Analysis --- p.11
Chapter 5.1 --- Location --- p.11
Chapter 5.2 --- Climate --- p.11
Chapter 5.3 --- Landscape --- p.11
Chapter 5.4 --- Adjacent Buildings --- p.11
Chapter 5.5 --- Infrastructure --- p.11
Chapter 5.6 --- Ground Conditions --- p.12
Chapter 5.7 --- Access and Transportation --- p.12
Chapter 5.8 --- Zoning and Codes --- p.12
Chapter Part III: --- Process --- p.13
Chapter 6 --- Urban Design Process --- p.14
Chapter 6.1 --- 01 Oct 96 Review --- p.14
Chapter 6.2 --- Process... --- p.15
Chapter 6.3 --- 22 Nov 96 Review --- p.16
Chapter 6.4 --- Process... --- p.18
Chapter 6.5 --- 14 Dec 96 Final Review of Urban Design --- p.19
Chapter 7 --- Building & Places Design Process --- p.21
Chapter 7.1 --- 08 Jan 97 Review --- p.21
Chapter 7.2 --- Process… --- p.22
Chapter 7.3 --- Process... --- p.23
Chapter 7.4 --- 27 Jan 97 Review --- p.24
Chapter 7.5 --- Process... --- p.26
Chapter 7.6 --- 17 Feb 97 Intermediate Review --- p.27
Chapter 7.7 --- Process… --- p.29
Chapter Part IV: --- Final Project --- p.31
Chapter 8 --- Final Project --- p.32

Distributed natural gas-driven combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems, including various technologies, provide an alternative for the world to meet and solve energy-related problems, such as energy shortages, energy supply security, emission control, the economy and conservation of energy, etc. This paper analyzes the energy consumption structure in China at first; then the characteristics of natural gas-driven CCHP technologies, especially technical performances, are presented, as well as the status of utilization and development. The status of distributed CCHP development in China is briefly introduced by dividing China into four main sections: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other areas. Several problems regarding further distribution of natural gas-driven CCHP applications for buildings in China are discussed. It is concluded that, within decades, promising CCHP technologies can flourish with the cooperative efforts of government, energy-related enterprises and professional associations.

Nuclear Island (NI) basemat is a very thick reinforced concrete mat sitting on sub-grade soil to function as one-piece-foundation to support all super-structures anchored above the basemat. The Generation III (GEN III) NI is designed with more structures housing on the basemat, as such it is even greater in dimensions compared to GEN II. In the design process of a GEN III Passive-Safety-Plant (PSP), NI base mat is the most critical part for foundation design, since it is not only serves as the pressure boundary in foundation system but also support the whole nuclear island, carrying vertical load from upper structures, seismic loads both in vertical and horizontal directions, lateral soil pressures and buoyant force due to water table etc. For a typical AP plant the main structural systems which are housing within NI comprises of steel containment vessel (SCV), shield building (SC wall), internal structures, and auxiliary buildings etc. The scope for this paper is to investigate the approach and method which are suitable for modeling GEN III passive-safety-plant basemat. The investigation scopes are focused on (1) concrete basemat FE modeling and related subgrade medium (soil) modeling; (2) Design loads evaluation method and application for a typical basemat FE static analysis. Structurally speaking SCV is designed to directly anchored in concrete basemat, the interface between upper structure and foundation, its geometry and connection are unique and complicated, this lead to the modeling of basemat not only have to consider an appropriate FE meshing and element type selection but also need to consider the load application and transferring from the SCV to the basemat basin. Since passive-safety-plant NI basemat is a deep foundation, basemat is deeply buried below the grade, the complete foundation model not only shall consider the basemat and immediate soil under the basemat, but also need to consider the backfill soil, the surrounding soil in vicinity, fill concrete under the basemat and deeper soil condition under the basemat. Since seismic loads pose great effects on basemat and its foundation design, how to evaluation seismic loadings and simplified their application for basemat static analysis is critical for such type of foundation.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.