Academic literature on the topic 'Basalt Deterioration'

Aim: The study aims to determine the types of deterioration that occur in natural stones of the Nebi Mosque, and the effects that cause them to deteriorate, and to draw attention to the importance of protecting the building. The scope of the study is constituted by the findings obtained by observation-based research in light of the current literature. Method: In the study, the deteriorations observed in the basalt stone and limestone of the Diyarbakır Nebi Mosque were examined by photographing in-situ. In addition to the photographs, the types of deterioration on the facades were processed using the mapping method and the areas of the stone surfaces affected by the deterioration types were calculated. The obtained numerical data were used to compare the degradation types quantitatively. Findings: In the stone materials of the building, physicomechanical deterioration such as crack formation, alveolization, and abrasion, which are frequently observed in hot-dry climates, were found. In addition to physicomechanical deterioration, chemical deterioration types such as corrosion, black crust formation, efflorescence/salt crystallization, and microkarst formation and deterioration caused by biological effects were observed. Deterioration caused by faulty repairs examined in the category of anthropogenic deterioration also constitutes the damage observed in the building. In addition to the deterioration detected in the study, it is among the findings to reveal the factors that cause deterioration, such as humidity, wind, air pollution, and faulty repair. Results: Diyarbakır Nebi Mosque, which is a historical and cultural heritage, is damaged by natural stone deterioration due to environmental factors. In the study, the technical properties of basalt and limestone forming the structure were determined and the types of deterioration were included. Attention was drawn to the structure and awareness was tried to be created about taking the necessary measures.

Generally, the moisture absorbed in the composites plasticizes the resin. And it makes the composites expansion in volume and generates the cracking at the same time, So, the fracture is often generated in the composites by those reason. Therefore, in this study, the change of mechanical properties due to the moisture-absorption for the carbon fiber reinforced composites in comparison with basalt fiber and glass fiber reinforced composites are investigated. The specimens for the carbon, basalt, and glass fiber reinforced composites manufactured with the ASTM standard. The specimens immersed in distilled water at 80°C during 100 days and the coefficient of moisture was measured in according to the Fick's law. In addition, after drying process, the humidity-absorbed specimen under 80°C for 1 day, the recovery rate was measured. As a result, the coefficient of moisture-absorption of carbon fiber reinforced composite material was the lowest at approximately 3 % because the interface coherence with the fiber and resin are the most strong. Also, after drying process, the recovery rate was 20 percent higher than the others.

Moisture absorption results in dimensional deformation, mechanical property deterioration and fungi attack in wood composite products, which may be improved by the reinforcement of waterproof material. In this study, we used basalt fibre as a reinforcement material for fir sawdust panels and investigated the influence of basalt fibre content and length on moisture absorption rate and thickness swelling. The reinforced fir sawdust panel groups largely reduced water absorption rate, and the smallest thickness swelling occurred when the content of basalt fibre was 5%. The results also indicated that the basalt fibre content played a more important role than basalt fibre length on the thickness swelling of the reinforced fir sawdust panels.

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS/CCS) is a strategic choice for ensuring energy security and reducing carbon dioxide emissions across the globe. The injection of CO2 into the basaltic reservoir is one strategy for the permanent disposal of carbon emissions. Basaltic rocks, which are widely distributed in Hainan Island, are capable of CO2 geological sequestration. In this study, the reaction of CO2-NaOH/Ca(OH)2-basaltic rocks under conditions of 6.0 M Pa and 30 °C was performed using basaltic samples collected from the Fushan area of the Hainan Province to evaluate the sequestration of CO2 in basalt by mineralization. Then, the effect of CO2 mineralization on the permeability and mechanical properties of basaltic rocks was evaluated using X-ray computer tomography and triaxial compression testing at 21.0 MPa. In addition, microwave technology was used to irradiate the basaltic rocks before mineralization. Changes in the permeability of basalt before and after mineralization and microwave irradiation were simulated numerically, and their effects on the mechanical strength deterioration of basalt were analyzed according to the rock mechanics using triaxial testing. Based on these results, a new method for the induction of basalt deterioration, mineralization, CO2 injectivity, and storage capacity using microwave irradiation is proposed for use in CCUS/CCS engineering.

The study evaluates the use of waste basalt powder as a replacement of cement to enhance hydration of cement and mortar properties. The basalt powder is a waste resulting from preparation of aggregate used in asphalt mixture production. Previous studies have shown that analysed waste used as a fine aggregate replacement has a beneficial effect on some properties of mortar and concrete, i.e. compressive strength, flexural strength and freeze resistance. The present study shows the results of the research concerning the modification of cement paste and mortar with basalt powder. The modification consists in adding the powder waste as a partial replacement of cement. The percentages of basalt powder in this research are 0-40% and 0-20% by mass of cement in the pastes and mortars respectively. The experiments were carried out to determine the influence of basalt powder on cement hydration, as well as compressive and flexural strength. Results indicate that addition of basalt powder as a replacement of cement leads to deterioration of compressive strength. The flexural strength of mortar is improved in some cases. Waste basalt powder only slightly influences the cement hydration.

Moisture sorption of wood sawdust panel results in dimensional variation, deterioration of mechanical property and fungi attack, which may be improved by the reinforcement of waterproof material. In this study, the fir sawdust panel was reinforced by basalt glass particles with size smaller than 5 micron, in order to reduce moisture penetration. When the content of basalt glass powder was 15%, both the thickness swelling and 24 h water absorption rate of wood composites reached their minimum values, which were 2.7% and 11%, respectively. The thickness swelling was far smaller than the 45% upper limit of medium density fiberboard as described by standards GB/T17657-1999.

The reinforcement of plywood is demonstrated by laminating pretensioned basalt fibers between veneer sheets, to fabricate so-called prestressed plywood. Belt type basalt fibers bearing a specific adhesion promoting silane sizing were aligned between veneer sheets with 20 mm spacing and were pretensioned at 150 N. Three-layer plywood samples were prepared and tested for tensile strength at room temperature and at 150 °C. The room temperature tensile tests revealed a 35% increase in tensile strength for prestressed plywood compared to that of the conventional specimen. The reinforcement effect deteriorated at 150 °C but was restored upon cooling to room temperature. The deterioration is attributed to the weakening of bonding between the basalt fibers and phenolic resin matrix at elevated temperatures due to the softening of the resin.

Incorporating reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) into asphalt mixtures achieves astonishingly environmental and economic benefits. However, there is hesitation to use higher RAP content due to the concern regarding the deterioration in pavement performance, especially the cracking resistance. Basalt fiber has been considered an effective additive to reinforce the performance of asphalt mixtures and, subsequently, the reinforcement effect is also expected for high-RAP content mixtures. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of basalt fiber on the pavement performance of asphalt mixtures with 0%, 30%, 40%, and 50% RAP contents against high-temperature performance, moisture susceptibility, low-temperature and intermediate-temperature cracking resistance, based on the wheel-tracking test, the uniaxial penetration test, the freeze-thaw splitting test, the low-temperature bending beam test, the semicircular bend fracture test and the indirect tensile asphalt cracking test, respectively. In addition, a performance-space diagram was developed to determine the mixture performance shift caused by basalt fiber. The results showed that adding basalt fiber compensated for the detrimental effect caused by RAP, leading to significant enhancement in moisture susceptibility and low- and intermediate-temperature cracking resistance of mixtures with high RAP content, along with the enhancement in high-temperature performance, indicating that basalt fiber can contribute to the use of high RAP content.

With steel fiber and basalt fiber volume dosing serving as variation parameters, a total of 200 d cycles of acid rain corrosion cycle tests were conducted on fiber concrete in this study. We selected three durability evaluation parameters to assess the degree of damage deterioration on fiber concrete, used scanning electron microscopy, mercury intrusion porosimetry, and a dimensional microhardness meter to analyze the concrete micromorphology, and established a GM(1,1)-Markov model for life prediction of its durability. Results reveal that the acid rain environment is the most sensitive to the influence of the relative dynamic elastic modulus evaluation parameter, and concrete has specimens that show failure damage under this parameter evaluation. Incorporation of fibers can reduce the amount of corrosion products inside the concrete, decrease the proportion of harmful pores, optimize the mean pore-size, and significantly improve the resistance to acid rain attack. Concrete with 2% steel fiber and 0.1% basalt fiber by volume has the least change in durability damage, and the predicted service life by GM(1,1)-Markov model is 322 d.

The focus of this thesis is on the most commonly used types of stone, the methods of quarrying stone, stone working, the tools developed and used for that purpose, and the ways in which stone was transported and hoisted into place. This is starting from the earliest times in which large temples or buildings were constructed, namely the Neolithic, up till the time of the Roman Empire. Besides being a kind of compendium of most aspects of stone working, which could be found, also attention is given to the ideal conditions under which the construction of a large temple or monument could take place. The framework, which is developed from the description of the construction of Solomon’s Temple in Jerusalem in I Kings 5 and I Chronicles 28, is used to analyse the construction of a number of other temples in different times, places and settings, and with the use of different materials, to test if the framework is applicable in all these situations. Moreover, also other aspects of stone working, such as mosaics and the manufacturing of stone vessels in Jerusalem are described and analysed as to their origins and uses. The intention is to give an overview of the many ways in which stone has been used, so that the reader can get an idea of how large temples and monuments were built and to gain an understanding of what kind of technical know-how and ingenuity existed in antiquity.
Religious Studies and Arabic
D. Phil. (Religious Studies (Biblical Archaeology))

In order to explore the frost resistance durability of basalt fiber reinforced concrete (BFRC), the freeze-thaw cycle tests of BFRC with different fiber contents were carried out from the microscopic point of view, and the macro-morphological deterioration characteristics and micro-morphological characteristics of BFRC with different freeze-thaw cycles were analyzed. By testing the hole structure parameters of BFRC with different freeze-thaw cycles, the effects of gas content, average bubble chord length, specific surface area, and bubble spacing coefficient on the frost resistance of BFRC were studied. The results show that: With the increase of fiber content, the damage degree of concrete specimens weakens, and the proportion of harmful pores in the pore size distribution increases significantly; It decreases with the increase of bubble spacing coefficient; The addition of basalt fiber can effectively inhibit the development of cracks and reduce the probability of large pores in the process of concrete freeze-thaw damage, thereby improving the frost resistance of concrete. Therefore, for the northern region, the research on the frost resistance of BFRC is very necessary and of great significance.

Basil’s Robert Mannion, and No Name’s Magdalen Vanstone are both subject to monomaniacal impulses. In Basil, Collins draws on early-nineteenth-century theories of insanity and moral management, promoted by “alienists” such as John Connolly and J. C. Prichard, which warned of domination by unruly passions. Mannion allows himself to be swept away by his uncontrolled emotions, and therefore contributes to his own mental deterioration. In No Name, Collins makes use of mid-Victorian theories of the will, developed by mental physiologists such as William Benjamin Carpenter, to depict Magdalen as someone who has not been trained to manage her willpower correctly and is therefore overwhelmed by a monomaniacal urge when faced with sudden tragedy. Unlike Mannion, Magdalen also possesses intrinsic reserves of moral strength and endures a series of internal conflicts between her monomania and her ‘better’ nature. In his contemplation of the different aspects which comprise the individual personality, Collis asserts (and so counters mid-century associationist psychology as propounded by men like Alexander Bain) that we are not ‘born with dispositions like blank sheets of paper’, but also insists that our inborn traits may be cultivated for better or for worse.

The state of Qatar is suffering from its harsh environment and coastal conditions, which stand for most of the year. As a result, steel-reinforced concrete structures are subjected to rapid corrosion and deterioration. Therefore, there is a necessity to replace the conventional steel reinforcement by fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) bars. Apart from FRP bars corrosion resistance, their strength to weight ratio is higher than steel reinforcement, which made the FRP, bars a viable alternative to steel reinforcement. Continuous concrete beams are commonly used elements in structures such as parking garages and overpasses. In such structures, forces could be distributed between the critical sections after cracking. This phenomenon is called moment redistribution. It reduces the congested rebars in connections and enhances the ductility of the members. However, the linear-elastic behaviour of FRP materials makes the ability of continuous beams to redistribute loads and moments questionable. This study aims to investigate the capability of moment redistribution of basalt fiber reinforced concrete (BFRC) continuous beams reinforced with basalt FRP (BFRP) bars. Eleven reinforced concrete (RC) continuous beams of 200 x 300 x 4000 mm were tested up to failure under fivepoint loading. The main investigated parameters were the reinforcement ratio (0.6rb, 1.0rb, 1.8rb and 2.8rb; where rb is the balanced reinforcement ratio), stirrups spacing (80 and 120 mm) and volume fractions of Basalt-macro fibers (BMF) (0.75 and 1.5%). A parametric study was then conducted using a validated finite element (FE) model to extend the investigated parameters that may affect the moment redistribution of RC continuous beams. It was concluded that moment redistribution occurs in beams that have at least a ratio of bottom to top reinforcement of 0.3.

The state of Qatar bears harsh environment and coastal conditions which stand for most of the year. As a result, steel-reinforced concrete structures are subjected to rapid corrosion and deterioration. Therefore, there is a necessity to replace the conventional steel reinforcement by fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) bars. Apart from FRP bars’ corrosion resistance, their strength to weight ratio is higher than steel reinforcement which makes the FRP bars a viable alternative to steel reinforcement. Continuous concrete beams are commonly used elements in structures such as parking garages and overpasses. In such structures, forces could be distributed between the critical sections after cracking. This phenomenon is called moment redistribution. It reduces the congested rebars in connections and enhances the ductility of the members. However, the linear-elastic behavior of FRP materials makes the ability of continuous beams to redistribute loads and moments questionable. This study aims to investigate the capability of moment redistribution of basalt fiber reinforced concrete (BFRC) continuous beams reinforced with basalt FRP (BFRP) bars. Ten reinforced concrete (RC) continuous beams of 200 x 300 x 4000 mm were tested up to failure under five-point loading. The main investigated parameters were the reinforcement ratio (0.6rb, 1.0rb, 1.8rb and 2.8rb; where rb is the balanced reinforcement ratio), stirrups spacing (80 and 120 mm) and volume fractions of Basalt-macro fibers (BMF) (0.75 and 1.5%). A parametric study was then conducted using a validated finite element (FE) model to extend the investigated parameters that may affect the moment redistribution of RC continuous beams. It was concluded that moment redistribution occurs in beams that have at least a ratio of bottom to top reinforcement of 0.3.

The State of Qatar suffers from a harsh environment in the form of high temperature that prevails almost all year round in addition to severe humidity and coastal conditions. This exposure leads to the rapid deterioration and the reduction of the life span of reinforced concrete (RC) infrastructure. The full functionality and safe use of the infrastructure in such environments can only be maintained by holistic approaches including the use of advanced materials for new construction.With the developments in materials science, the advanced composites, especially fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials are becoming viable alternatives to the traditional construction materials. Having superior durability against corrosion, versatility for easy in-situ applications and enhanced weight-to-strength ratios compared to their counterpart conventional materials, FRPs are promising to be the future of construction materials. More recently, FRP composites made of basalt FRP (BFRP) have been introduced as an alternative to traditional steel reinforcement at a price comparable to glass fibers of about $2.5–5.0 per kg, which is significantly lower than carbon fibers. BFRP bars are characterized by their corrosion resistance, greater strain at failure than carbon fibers, and better chemical resistant than glass fibers, particularly in a strongly alkaline environment. Knowing that FRP bars are anisotropic materials with weaker strength in the transverse direction compared with the longitudinal direction, and having a relatively low modulus of elasticity compared with steel reinforcement, it is important to investigate the concrete contribution to shear strength for beams reinforced with BFRP bars. In addition, due to the elastic performance of the FRP reinforcing bars compared with steel bars, FRP bars fail in a brittle manner. Moreover, concrete itself is a brittle material. Previous investigations have shown that using discrete fibers in concrete increases its ductility due to the large compressive strains exhibited at failure. Therefore, basalt macro-fibers is proposed in this study. A total of 14 concrete beam specimens were tested under four point loading until failure. The parameters investigated included the reinforcement ratio (2rb, 3.1rb, and 4.53rb, where rb is the balanced reinforcement ratio), the span to depth ratio (a/d=2.5, and a/d=3.3), the spacing between stirrups (S1=170mm, and S2=250mm) and the basalt fiber volume fraction (0%, 0.75% and 1.5%). Test results clearly showed that both BFRP bars and basalt macro-fibers can be used as sustainable and eco-friendly alternative materials in Concrete Structures in Qatar.

Abstract The protection of human life and goods assumes a growing concern in all forms of activities. The fire and smoke curtains act as a physical barrier to prevent the fire from spreading between spaces as well as to staunch the smoke and heat transfer to adjacent areas, while causing minimal interference. Usually, curtains are based on fiber structures that can be coated to enhance their protective capabilities. Also, the fiber structure can be developed into a complex pattern of 2D and 3D threads, with single or multiple materials that can be tailored to optimize its behavior. The thermal and fire protection depends on the fibers, fabric pattern and coatings. The present paper reports the development of novel coated structures of fibers used for fire protection curtains. Basalt and glass fibers are used as yarn materials. Following the certification standards the samples were assessed for their thermal resistance by measuring the temperature differential they provide while their integrity is evaluated. The sample is placed under stress in an attempt to mimic its own weight effect when in service. The temperature is monitored using thermocouples which are placed at both sides of the fabric and the integrity parameter is assessed through the occurrence of fabric rupture and smoke and/or odor release motivated by its deterioration. Regarding the uncoated samples, the one composed of glass-fiber in both directions presents the best thermal performance. The addition of an alumina coating significantly improves the performance of all samples. However, while a thinner (0.05 μm) alumina layer provides better results for the sample with glass-fiber in both warp and weft directions, the behavior of samples composed of glass-fiber and basalt is superior when a thicker (0.3 μm) alumina layer is used. In both cases, an alumina coating application results in an increase of the gradient temperature (between curtain inside/outside temperatures) of about 38.0% (310.0 °C vs. 427.0 °C for the first and 386.0 °C vs. 526.0 °C for the latter.

Abstract Many places where pipelines are built have soil, basal material and water table conditions which can create suboptimal environments for centerline as-builting and weld mapping. Furthermore, ditches containing multiple pipelines can make as-built and weld mapping particularly complex especially when the pipes are of varying sizes. The complexity of the laying in of multiple pipes may also result in the ditch being exposed longer than desired, enabling further deterioration of ditch conditions and even flooding. At times, circumstances can become so hazardous that manual survey of the pipeline centerline can only be completed while the pipe is outside of the ditch (requiring a transposition) and a variety of survey techniques must be used to capture the centreline locations. Surveying at a distance from the pipes can make verification to weld mapping and field inspection problematic. Recent advancements in remote sensing, particularly mobile LiDAR and imagery collection technology, have lowered collection and processing costs and expanded the applicability of the technology to complex collection environments and harsh conditions on pipeline construction rights-of-way. Additionally, there has been a marked improvement in overall data accuracy and precision from mobile mapping systems. Up until recently, these technologies have only been useful in static construction environments where periods of inactivity during construction afforded the time to set up and collect data in a safe and accurate manner. New remote sensing systems, designed for more rugged, fast-paced, and complex environments are expanding the use of mobile remote sensing to the pipeline construction right of way. These mobile mapping technologies have significant advantages over drone collected data particularly with respect to the logistics of the data collection. Recently, advanced mobile mapping technology was employed on various pipeline construction projects and the accuracy of LiDAR and imagery collection for centerline as-builting and weld mapping was assessed. Some of the project locations were in areas where the traditional manual collection of data could be deemed hazardous or unsafe. This paper evaluates the collection technique against the traditional methods used under hazardous or inaccessible conditions and discusses the benefits of mobile remote sensing for this scenario. The authors also provide an analysis of the remote sensing based as-built and weld mapping data against those acquired through the traditional technique during this trial. Opportunities for adoption of this method as well as improvements to its application are also discussed.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias