Journal articles on the topic 'Barwon River Region (Vic )'

Hydrological process simulation and rainfall–runoff analysis are important foundations for reasonably evaluating changes in water resources. In this paper, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model was used to simulate runoff without observed data for exploring the applicability of the model in the Kequ, Dari, and Jimai river basins in the source region of the Yellow River, and the Balegen River basin in the inland arid source region. The results show that, from 2015 to 2018, the VIC model had a good simulation effect. The Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) of the four basins were all above 0.7, and the NSE of the Dari River basin reached 0.93. The relative error (RE) of the three river basins was about 5%, on average, and the RE of the Balegen basin was 6.50%, indicating that the model has good applicability in the study area. Climate perturbation experiments were performed to quantitatively analyze the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The results show that, in the source area of the Yellow River, rainfall and runoff are roughly linearly related. However, in the inland arid source area, temperature has a slightly greater impact on runoff than rainfall.

Snowmelt water is essential to the water resources management over the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), where hydrological processes are influenced by snowmelt runoff and sensitive to climate change. The objectives of this study were to analyse the contribution of snowmelt water to the total streamflow (fQ,snow) in the TRHR by applying a snowmelt tracking algorithm and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The ratio of snowfall to precipitation, and the variation of the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) associated with fQ,snow, were identified to analyse the role of snowpack in the hydrological cycle. Prior to the simulation, the VIC model was validated based on the observed streamflow data to recognize its adequacy in the region. In order to improve the VIC model in snow hydrology simulation, Advanced Scanning Microwave Radiometer E (ASMR-E) SWE product data was used to compare with VIC output SWE to adjust the snow parameters. From 1971 to 2007, the averaged fQ,snow was 19.9% with a significant decreasing trend over entire TRHR (p < 0.05).The influence factor resulted in the rate of change in fQ,snow which were different for each sub-basin TRHR. The decreasing rate of fQ,snow was highest of 0.24%/year for S_Lantsang, which should be due to the increasing streamflow and the decreasing snowmelt water. For the S_Yangtze, the increasing streamflow contributed more than the stable change of snowmelt water to the decreasing fQ,snow with a rate of 0.1%/year. The April 1 SWE with the minimum value appearing after 2000 and the decreased ratio of snowfall to precipitation during the study period, suggested the snow solid water resource over the TRHR was shrinking. Our results imply that the role of snow in the snow-hydrological regime is weakening in the TRHR in terms of water supplement and runoff regulation due to the decreased fQ,snow and snowfall.

Abstract. This paper investigates the ability of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model to reproduce streamflow in the catchment of the lower Elbe River, Germany. The VIC-2L model, a hydrologically-based land surface scheme (LSS) which has been tested extensively in the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS), is put up on the rotated grid of 1/6 degree of the atmospheric regional scale model (REMO) used in the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX). For a 10 year period, the VIC-2L model is forced in daily time steps with measured daily means of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind speed, air humidity and daily sunshine duration. VIC-2L model output of surface runoff and baseflow is used as input for the routing model, which transforms modelled runoff into streamflow, which is compared to measured streamflow at selected gauge stations. The water balance of the basin is investigated and the model results on daily, monthly and annual time scales are discussed. Discrepancies appear in time periods where snow and ice processes are important. Extreme flood events are analyzed in more dital. The influence of calibration with respect to runoff is examined.

Abstract Variations of precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the Yellow River source region were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests over the past 60 years. Based on the seven climate scenarios from CMIP5 climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, responses of hydrological process to climate change were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Variation analysis results indicated that recorded temperature presented significant increasing trend. Daily minimum temperature presented higher increasing trend than daily maximum temperature. Annual gross precipitation presented minor increasing and annual runoff presented minor decreasing. The VIC model performed well on simulating monthly discharge at Tangnaihai station, with NSE of 0.91 and 0.93 in calibration and validation periods, respectively. The projected annual mean temperature would rise (with 25th and 75th percentiles) 1.07–1.32 °C, 1.76–2.33 °C, 3.45–4.29 °C, annual precipitation is expected to increase 3.43%–11.77%, 8.05%–17.27%, 12.84%–27.89%, and runoff would moderately increase with high variability of 0.82%–14.26%, −3.41%–19.14%, 1.43%–38.26% relative to the baseline of 1961–1990 under each RCP in the 2080s, respectively. The inhomogeneity of runoff may increase in the future. Many more droughts and floods under climate change may threaten social development in this region in the future.

Intensive agricultural production accompanied by the climate change impacts in post-Colonial rural landscapes have continuously increased the demand for water resources and coastal areas, showing an unprecedented water supply crisis. By taking extreme weather conditions and rainfall events for future trends, a resilient water storage facility for the landscape requires the collaborative approach of natural systems and simulation modelling techniques to develop sustainable future scenarios. In this study, an ecological suitability model is used to identify potential sites for the construction of multi-purpose dams. As part of the model structure, multi factors are classified using the patterns of changing landscapes, and then weighted overlay analysis is conducted on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Compared to previous studies, this paper derives its principal impact parameters and projections based on historical land cover information. The suitability maps that are generated visually guide the geographical location of the multi-purpose dams and indicate the areas from highly suitable to least suitable, clarifying the possibility of building blue infrastructure alongside the waterways in west-central Barwon. The workflow proposes a resilient water system based on existing land characteristics and measures that future water storage capacity will be a valid increase of approximately 1.5 times. This strategy alleviates water scarcity during the dry season to benefit traditional agricultural activities. Digital calculations are utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the experimental results, providing a methodology for regulating the distribution and supply of river flows throughout the year while retaining runoff in a hierarchical pattern at precipitation periods.

Abstract. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) carries aboard the Precipitation Radar (TRMMPR) that measures the backscatter (σ°) of the surface. σ° is sensitive to surface soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Due to sparse vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions, TRMMPR σ° primarily depends on the soil water content. In this study we relate TRMMPR σ° measurements to soil water content (ms) in Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). σ° dependence on ms is studied for different vegetation greenness values determined through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A new model of σ° that couples incidence angle, ms, and NDVI is used to derive parameters and retrieve soil water content. The calibration and validation of this model are performed using simulated and measured ms data. Simulated ms is estimated using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model whereas measured ms is acquired from ground measuring stations in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). σ° model is calibrated using VIC and WGEW ms data during 1998 and the calibrated model is used to derive ms during later years. The temporal trends of derived ms are consistent with VIC and WGEW ms data with correlation coefficient (R) of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. Derived ms is also consistent with the measured precipitation data with R=0.76. The gridded VIC data is used to calibrate the model at each grid point in LCRB and spatial maps of the model parameters are prepared. The model parameters are spatially coherent with the general regional topography in LCRB. TRMMPR σ° derived soil moisture maps during May (dry) and August (wet) 1999 are spatially similar to VIC estimates with correlation 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. This research provides new insights into Ku-band σ° dependence on soil water content in the arid regions.

Abstract. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) carries aboard the Precipitation Radar (TRMMPR) that measures the backscatter (σ°) of the surface. σ° is sensitive to surface soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Due to sparse vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions, TRMMPR σ° primarily depends on the soil water content. In this study we relate TRMMPR σ° measurements to soil water content (ms) in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). σ° dependence on ms is studied for different vegetation greenness values determined through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A new model of σ° that couples incidence angle, ms, and NDVI is used to derive parameters and retrieve soil water content. The calibration and validation of this model are performed using simulated and measured ms data. Simulated ms is estimated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and measured ms is acquired from ground measuring stations in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). σ° model is calibrated using VIC and WGEW ms data during 1998 and the calibrated model is used to derive ms during later years. The temporal trends of derived ms are consistent with VIC and WGEW ms data with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. Derived ms is also consistent with the measured precipitation data with R=0.76. The gridded VIC data is used to calibrate the model at each grid point in LCRB and spatial maps of the model parameters are prepared. The model parameters are spatially coherent with the general regional topography in LCRB. TRMMPR σ° derived soil moisture maps during May (dry) and August (wet) 1999 are spatially similar to VIC estimates with correlation 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. This research provides new insights into Ku-band σ° dependence on soil water content in the arid regions.

Successful streamflow forecasts depend on an adequate performance evaluation of the hydrological model. In this study, the hydrological responses were compared using two hydrological models, physic-based and semi-distributed, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), using input data from the Verde River Watershed, located in the Minas Gerais state in southern Brazil. This is a study of one of the most important headwater watershed regions of Brazil (Mantiqueira Range). Both models were suitable for streamflow simulation, with values of R2 (determination coefficient) and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe) higher than 0.8, NSELog higher than 0.35 (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of the logarithmic values of discharge) and PBIAS (percentage deviation) less than 25%. The integration of SWAT and VIC models can be useful in different water-resource assessment studies. Therefore, based upon this study further investigations should be conducted using various hydrological models and climate, land-use and land-cover changes scenarios in the region.

Abstract To evaluate the accuracy and applicability of the TMPA 3B42-V7 precipitation product for the Lancang River basin, we used different statistical indices to explore the performance of the product in comparison to gauge data. Then, we performed a hydrologic simulation using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model with two scenarios (Scenario I: streamflow simulation using gauge-calibrated parameters; Scenario II: streamflow simulation using 3B42-V7-recalibrated parameters) to verify the applicability of the product. The results of the precipitation analysis show good accuracy of the V7 precipitation data. The accuracy increases with the increase of both space and time scales, while time scale increases cause a stronger effect. The satellite can accurately measure most of the precipitation but tends to misidentify non-precipitation events as light precipitation events (&lt;1 mm/day). The results of the hydrologic simulation show that the VIC hydrological model has good applicability for the Lancang River basin. However, 3B42-V7 data did not perform as well under Scenario I with the lowest Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) of 0.42; Scenario II suggests that the error drops significantly and the NSCE increases to 0.70 or beyond. In addition, the simulation accuracy increases with increased temporal scale.

Abstract. The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May–July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ^ = −0.40; −0.41) and (ρ^ = −0.35; −0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH) have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006). Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU), rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated using observed data from BBMB (Bhakra Beas Management Board) and coefficient of Correlation(R²) measured for (2003-2006) was 0.67 and 0.61 for the year 2006.But as VIC does not consider snowmelt runoff as a part of the total discharge, snowmelt runoff has been estimated for the simulation both with and without D.A. The snow fluxes as generated from VIC gives basin average estimates of Snow Cover, SWE, Snow Depth and Snow melt. It has been observed to be overestimated when model predicted snow cover is compared with MODIS SCA of 500 m resolution from MOD10A2 for each year. So MODIS 8-day snow cover area has been assimilated directly into the model state as well as by using EnKF after every 8 days for the year 2006.D.I Technique performed well as compared to EnKF. R² between Model SCA and MODIS SCA is estimated as 0.73 after D.I with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of +0.19. After direct Insertion of D.A, SCA has been reduced comparatively which resulted in 7% reduction of annual snowmelt contribution to total discharge.The assimilation of MODIS SCA data hence improved the snow cover area (SCA) fraction and finally updated other snow components.

Abstract. Droughts have a severe impact on the development of the social economy in developed plain areas. Soil moisture is a good index, it can reasonably reflect changes in drought. In this study, Jiangsu province in the Yangtze River Plain was selected as the research region, and the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) large-scale hydrological model was selected to simulate the daily soil moisture with a resolution of 0.125 × 0.125 degree from 1956 to 2009. The simulated soil moisture was verified by measured soil moisture. The results indicate that the simulated soil moisture distribution is relatively consistent for the three soil layers (0–20, 20−100 and 0–100 cm), showing an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The simulated soil moisture anomalies agreed well with in situ observations. The simulated soil moisture data thus can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of the regional water content and to provide support for drought monitoring and forecasting.

The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH) have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006). Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU), rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated using observed data from BBMB (Bhakra Beas Management Board) and coefficient of Correlation(R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) measured for (2003-2006) was 0.67 and 0.61 for the year 2006.But as VIC does not consider snowmelt runoff as a part of the total discharge, snowmelt runoff has been estimated for the simulation both with and without D.A. The snow fluxes as generated from VIC gives basin average estimates of Snow Cover, SWE, Snow Depth and Snow melt. It has been observed to be overestimated when model predicted snow cover is compared with MODIS SCA of 500 m resolution from MOD10A2 for each year. So MODIS 8-day snow cover area has been assimilated directly into the model state as well as by using EnKF after every 8 days for the year 2006.D.I Technique performed well as compared to EnKF. R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; between Model SCA and MODIS SCA is estimated as 0.73 after D.I with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of +0.19. After direct Insertion of D.A, SCA has been reduced comparatively which resulted in 7% reduction of annual snowmelt contribution to total discharge.The assimilation of MODIS SCA data hence improved the snow cover area (SCA) fraction and finally updated other snow components.

Abstract. The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal, and is expected to be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including flooding. This paper presents an analysis of the implications of climate change on the future flood hazard in the Beijiang River basin in South China, using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Uncertainty is considered by employing five Global Climate Models (GCMs), three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), ten downscaling simulations for each emission scenario, and two stages of future periods (2020–2050, 2050–2080). Credibility of the projected changes in floods is described using an uncertainty expression approach, as recommended by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results suggest that the VIC model shows a good performance in simulating extreme floods, with a daily runoff Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.91. The GCMs and emission scenarios are a large source of uncertainty in predictions of future floods over the study region, although the overall uncertainty range for changes in historical extreme precipitation and flood magnitudes are well represented by the five GCMs. During the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2080, annual maximum 1-day discharges (AMX1d) and annual maximum 7-day flood volumes (AMX7fv) are projected to show very similar trends, with the largest possibility of increasing trends occurring under the RCP2.6 scenario, and the smallest possibility of increasing trends under the RCP4.5 scenario. The projected ranges of AMX1d and AMX7fv show relatively large variability under different future scenarios in the five GCMs, but most project an increase during the two future periods (relative to the baseline period 1970–2000).

Abstract. The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal, and is expected to be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including flooding. This paper presents an analysis of the implications of climate change on the future flood hazard in the Beijiang River basin in South China, using a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Uncertainty is considered by employing five global climate models (GCMs), three emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), 10 downscaling simulations for each emission scenario, and two stages of future periods (2020–2050, 2050–2080). Credibility of the projected changes in floods is described using an uncertainty expression approach, as recommended by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results suggest that the VIC model shows a good performance in simulating extreme floods, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.91. The GCMs and emission scenarios are a large source of uncertainty in predictions of future floods over the study region, although the overall uncertainty range for changes in historical extreme precipitation and flood magnitudes are well represented by the five GCMs. During the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2080, annual maximum 1-day discharges (AMX1d) and annual maximum 7-day flood volumes (AMX7fv) are expected to show very similar trends, with the largest possibility of increasing trends occurring under the RCP2.6 scenario, and the smallest possibility of increasing trends under the RCP4.5 scenario. The projected ranges of AMX1d and AMX7fv show relatively large variability under different future scenarios in the five GCMs, but most project an increase during the two future periods (relative to the baseline period 1970–2000).

Abstract. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021–2050, compared to the base period of 1961–1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

Abstract. The Himalayas, also known as third pole of the Earth feed some of the major rivers of the world viz. Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra etc. The accurate assessment of water resources in eastern Himalayas is very important for respective policy makers. The detailed assessment of water resources and hydrological cycle component are very critical for attaining United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as affordable and clean energy, clean water and sanitation and building resilient infrastructure This study focuses on Kameng river basin, estimating the melt water &amp; its contribution to the total discharge of the river. A 3-layer VIC model coupled with energy balance algorithm is used to estimate the patterns of melt and discharge profile in the region. Net contribution of melt water to the river were estimated to be about 18% during peak melt season in upper catchments. With advancement in technology, acquiring meteorological data via remote sensing has become more accurate &amp; of high resolution. This data is one of the major inputs of the model. With accurate forecasting of these parameters, multipurpose hydropower projects in these regions can plan well in advance thus playing a major role in Integrated Water Resource Management. In current study the coefficient of determination &amp; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were calculated to be 0.82 &amp; 0.71 respectively. With increasing population in the region, any substantial change in the streamflow will have consequences unknown as of now, thus making this study a necessity &amp; need of hour.

Abstract Studying the role of land surface conditions in the Mexican portion of the North American monsoon system (NAMS) region has been a challenge due to the paucity of long-term observations. A long-term gridded observation-based climate dataset suitable for forcing land surface models, as well as model-derived land surface states and fluxes for a domain consisting of all of Mexico, is described. The datasets span the period of January 1925–October 2004 at 1/8° spatial resolution at a subdaily (3 h) time step. The simulated runoff matches the observations plausibly over most of the 14 small river basins spanning all of Mexico, which suggests that long-term mean evapotranspiration is realistically reproduced. On this basis, and given the physically based model parameterizations of soil moisture and energy fluxes, the other surface fluxes and state variables such as soil moisture should be represented reasonably. In addition, a comparison of the surface fluxes from this study is performed with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data on a seasonal mean basis. The results indicate that downward shortwave radiation is generally smaller than in the NARR data, especially in summer. Net radiation, on the other hand, is somewhat larger in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model than in the NARR data for much of the year over much of the domain. The differences in radiative and turbulent fluxes are attributed to (i) the parameterization used in the VIC forcings for solar and downward longwave radiation, which links them to the daily temperature and temperature range, and (ii) differences in the land surface parameterizations used in VIC and the NCEP–Oregon State University–U.S. Air Force–NWS/Hydrologic Research Lab (Noah) land scheme used in NARR.

Abstract Real-time streamflow monitoring is essential over the Indian subcontinental river basins, as a large population is affected by floods. Moreover, streamflow monitoring helps in managing water resources in the agriculture-dominated region. In this study, the authors systematically investigated the bias and uncertainty in satellite-based precipitation products [Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); PERSIANN Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR); and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), version 7, real-time (3B42RTV7) and gauge-adjusted (3B42V7) products] over the Indian subcontinental river basins for the period of 2000–13. Moreover, the authors evaluated the influence of bias in the satellite precipitation on real-time streamflow monitoring and flood assessment over the Mahanadi river basin. Results showed that CMORPH and PERSIANN underestimated daily mean precipitation over the majority of the subcontinental river basins. On the other hand, TRMM-3B42RTV7 overestimated daily mean precipitation over most of the river basins in the subcontinent. While gauge-adjusted products of PERSIANN (PERSIANN-CDR) and TRMM (TRMM-3B42V7) performed better than their real-time products, large biases remain in their performance to capture extreme precipitation (both frequency and magnitudes) over the subcontinental basins. Among the real-time precipitation products, TRMM-3B42RTV7 performed better than CMORPH and PERSIANN over the majority of the Indian subcontinental basins. Daily streamflow simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) for the Mahanadi river basin showed a better performance by the TRMM-3B42RTV7 product than the other real-time datasets. Moreover, daily streamflow simulations over the Mahanadi river basin showed that bias in real-time precipitation products affects the initial condition and precipitation forcing, which in turn affects flood peak timing and magnitudes.

Hydrologic responses to climate change have become a great challenge and attracted widespread attention of the researchers. The mountainous Qingyi River watershed in the southwest, China, had experienced significant climate change in the past three decades. It is necessary to investigate the hydrologic responses to these changes. Therefore, the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, baseflow and streamflow were assessed using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The Mann–Kendall test analysis was first used to identify the long-term change in precipitation and temperature over the period of 1980–2010. It revealed that there is a significant change in annual temperature particularly in February, March, July and September, whereas an insignificant change in annual precipitation was founded. Hydrologic simulations show that hydrologic responses to climate change were varied from region to region. Surface runoff was more sensitive than ET and baseflow. Monthly variation of the hydrologic processes, especially the change in surface runoff, was mainly attributed to seasonal variation in precipitation. The results of this research can be a useful source of information for the decision making in water resources management and protection.

Two statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change.

Abstract. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1–0.6% per decade, although with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. It is shown that the meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. This happens because the meteorlogical algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. A numerical experiment where VIC's values of Tdew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14% in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century.

Abstract. In response to ongoing and future-projected global warming, mid-latitude, nival river basins are expected to transition from a snowmelt-dominated flow regime to a nival–pluvial one with an earlier spring freshet of reduced magnitude. There is, however, a rich variation in responses that depends on factors such as the topographic complexity of the basin and the strength of maritime influences. We illustrate the potential effects of a strong maritime influence by studying future changes in cold season flow variability in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia, a large extratropical watershed extending from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast. We use a process-based hydrological model driven by an ensemble of 21 statistically downscaled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Warming under RCP 8.5 leads to reduced winter snowfall, shortening the average snow accumulation season by about one-third. Despite this, large increases in cold season rainfall lead to unprecedented cold season peak flows and increased overall runoff variability in the VIC simulations. Increased cold season rainfall is shown to be the dominant climatic driver in the Coast Mountains, contributing 60 % to mean cold season runoff changes in the 2080s. Cold season runoff at the outlet of the basin increases by 70 % by the 2080s, and its interannual variability more than doubles when compared to the 1990s, suggesting substantial challenges for operational flow forecasting in the region. Furthermore, almost half of the basin (45 %) transitions from a snow-dominated runoff regime in the 1990s to a primarily rain-dominated regime in the 2080s, according to a snowmelt pulse detection algorithm. While these projections are consistent with the anticipated transition from a nival to a nival–pluvial hydrologic regime, the marked increase in FRB cold season runoff is likely linked to more frequent landfalling atmospheric rivers in the region projected in the CMIP5 models, providing insights for other maritime-influenced extratropical basins.

Abstract. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1–0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. A numerical experiment where the values of Tdew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14% in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4% by the end of the century. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60%.

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for water resources planning and management and drought monitoring. The development of a satellite remote sensing technique is described to provide insight into the estimation of ET at a regional scale. In this study, the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to calculate the actual ET on a daily scale from Landsat-8 data and daily ground-based meteorological data in the upper reaches of Huaihe River on 20 November 2013, 16 April 2015 and 23 March 2018. In order to evaluate the performance of the SEBAL model, the daily SEBAL ET (ETSEBAL) was compared against the daily reference ET (ET0) from four theoretical methods: the Penman-Monteith (P-M), Irmak-Allen (I-A), the Turc, and Jensen-Haise (J-H) method, the ETMOD16 product from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MOD16) and the ETVIC from Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC). A linear regression equation and statistical indices were used to model performance evaluation. The results showed that the daily ETSEBAL correlated very well with the ET0, ETMOD16, and ETVIC, and bias between the ETSEBAL with them was less than 1.5%. In general, the SEBAL model could provide good estimations in daily ET over the study region. In addition, the spatial-temporal distribution of ETSEBAL was explored. The variation of ETSEBAL was significant in seasons with high values during the growth period of vegetation in March and April and low values in November. Spatially, the daily ETSEBAL values in the mountain area were much higher than those in the plain areas over the study region. The variability of ETSEBAL in this study area was positively correlated with elevation and negatively correlated with surface reflectance, which implies that elevation and surface reflectance are the important factors for predicting ET in this study area.

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability.

Abstract An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions.

Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China’s water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q5), low flow (Q95), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q5, Q95, and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q5, Q95, and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q95 were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q5. Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q95 and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.

Abstract. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Abstract The severity–area–duration (SAD) method is used in conjunction with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to identify the major historical total moisture (TM; soil moisture plus snow water equivalent) droughts over the Pacific Northwest region, defined as the Columbia River basin and the region’s coastal drainages, for the period 1920–2013. The motivation is to understand how droughts identified using TM (a measure similar to that used in the U.S. Drought Monitor) relate to sector-specific drought measures that are more relevant to users. It is found that most of the SAD space is dominated by an extended drought period during the 1930s, although the most severe shorter droughts are in the 1970s (1976–78) and early 2000s (2000–04). The impact of the three severe TM droughts that dominate most of the SAD space are explored in terms of sector-specific measures relevant to dryland and irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal water supply, and recreation. It is found that in many cases the most severe droughts identified using the SAD method also appear among the most severe sector-specific droughts; however, there are important exceptions. Two types of inconsistencies are examined and the nature of the conditions that give rise to them are explored.

Abstract. Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables (evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These impact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews's ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models, and a mean ensemble of these models, in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsular India: GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. The performance of the three models and their ensemble were investigated in five sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983–2005 were analysed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency and percent bias. The predictive capability for each model was compared, and the ability to accurately represent key catchment hydrological processes is discussed. This highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models, and that comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region. The performance of the mean ensemble was analysed to determine whether the application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. It was demonstrated that the ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models, with Nash-Sutcliffe values between 0.49 and 0.92. Therefore, utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models.

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models, and a mean ensemble of these models, in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsular India: GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. The performance of the three models and their ensemble were investigated in five sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983–2005 were analysed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency and percent bias. The predictive capability for each model was compared, and the ability to accurately represent key catchment hydrological processes is discussed. This highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models, and that comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region. The performance of the mean ensemble was analysed to determine whether the application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. It was demonstrated that the ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models, with Nash-Sutcliffe values between 0.49 and 0.92. Therefore, utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models.

Abstract. Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias correcting (BC) global climate model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables (evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, snow water equivalent (SWE), and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ-Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5–MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were first dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolution with the WRF model. Then a quantile-mapping-based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16° resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two climate data series were generated, with bias correction (BC) and without bias correction (NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological data sets. These impact models include a macroscale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrological model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ-Andrews's ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at regional scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies versus directly modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; for example, BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality, for which VOCs are a primary indicator.

AbstractSpatial and temporal variations of global floods during the TRMM period (1998–2013) are explored by means of the outputs of the Dominant River Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE) driven by the precipitation rates from the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Climatological and seasonal mean features of floods including frequency (FF), duration (FD), and mean and total intensity (FI and FTI) are examined and further compared to those for a variety of precipitation indices derived from the daily TMPA rain rates. In general, floods and precipitation manifest similar spatial distributions, confirming that more precipitation (both amount and frequency) often indicates higher probability of floods. However, different flood indices can be associated with different precipitation characteristics with a highly region-dependent distribution. FF and FD tend to be more related to daily precipitation frequency globally, especially the mid- to high-end precipitation frequencies (F10, F25, F50). However, FI and FTI tend to be more associated with the mean volume/magnitude of those (extreme) daily precipitation events (Pr10 and Pr25). Nonetheless, daily precipitation intensity except the very high end one (R50) generally has a relatively weak effect on floods. The precipitation–flood relations at the 10 large regions are further examined, providing an improved understanding of precipitation-related flood-generating mechanisms in different locations. On the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect floods in many flood-prone zones. However, it is noted that even though the ENSO effect on floods is mostly through modulating various aspects of precipitation events, significant ENSO signals in precipitation cannot always translate to an effective, simultaneous impact on floods.

Abstract. Assessing impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems is critical for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for water resource management, risk control, and ecosystem conservation practices. Such assessments are commonly accomplished using outputs from a hydrologic model forced with future precipitation and temperature projections. The algorithms used for the hydrologic model components (e.g., runoff generation) can introduce significant uncertainties into the simulated hydrologic variables. Here, a modeling framework was developed that integrates multiple runoff generation algorithms with a routing model and associated parameter optimizations. This framework is able to identify uncertainties from both hydrologic model components and climate forcings as well as associated parameterization. Three fundamentally different runoff generation approaches, runoff coefficient method (RCM, conceptual), variable infiltration capacity (VIC, physically based, infiltration excess), and simple-TOPMODEL (STP, physically based, saturation excess), were coupled with the Hillslope River Routing model to simulate surface/subsurface runoff and streamflow. A case study conducted in Santa Barbara County, California, reveals increased surface runoff in February and March but decreased runoff in other months, a delayed (3 d, median) and shortened (6 d, median) wet season, and increased daily discharge especially for the extremes (e.g., 100-year flood discharge, Q100). The Bayesian model averaging analysis indicates that the probability of such an increase can be up to 85 %. For projected changes in runoff and discharge, general circulation models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are two major uncertainty sources, accounting for about half of the total uncertainty. For the changes in seasonality, GCMs and hydrologic models are two major uncertainty contributors (∼35 %). In contrast, the contribution of hydrologic model parameters to the total uncertainty of changes in these hydrologic variables is relatively small (<6 %), limiting the impacts of hydrologic model parameter equifinality in climate change impact analysis. This study provides useful information for practices associated with water resources, risk control, and ecosystem conservation and for studies related to hydrologic model evaluation and climate change impact analysis for the study region as well as other Mediterranean regions.

Abstract Indian river basins are intensively managed with country-specific agricultural practices of cultivating submerged paddy and uncontrolled groundwater irrigation. Numerical experiments with the state-of-the-art land surface models, such as Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), without incorporating region-specific practices, could be misleading. Here, we coupled VIC with 2D groundwater model AMBHAS, incorporating India-specific irrigation practices and crop practices, including submerged paddy fields. We performed numerical experiments to understand the causal factors of groundwater depletion in the Northwest Indo-Gangetic plain. We identify widespread flood irrigation and cultivation of water-intensive paddy as critical drivers of the declining groundwater scenario. Our numerical experiments suggest that the introduction of drip irrigation reduces groundwater depletion in the Northwest, but does not change the sign of groundwater level trends. The groundwater levels in the non-paddy fields of the middle IGP are less sensitive to irrigation practices due to the high return flow to groundwater for flood irrigation.

Abstract It is a great challenge to obtain reliable gridded meteorological data in some data-scarce and complex territories like the Himalaya region. Less dense observed raingauge data are unable to represent rainfall variability in the Beas river basin of North-Western Himalaya. In this study four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and CFSR) and one global meteorological forcing data WFDEI have been used to evaluate the potential of the products to represent orographic rainfall pattern of Beas river basin using hydrology model. The modeled climate data have compared with observed climate data for a long term basis. A comparison of various rainfall and temperature products helps to determine uniformity and disparity between various estimates. Results show that all temperature data have a good agreement with gridded observed data. ERA-Interim temperature data is better in terms of bias, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and correlation compared to other data. On the other hand, MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55 models have overestimated rainfall values, but CFSR and WFDEI models have underestimated rainfall values to the measured values. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macroscale distributed hydrology model has been successfully applied to indirectly estimate the performance of five gridded meteorological data to represent Beas river basin rainfall pattern. The simulation result of the VIC hydrology model forced by these data reveals that the discharge of ERA-Interim has a good agreement with observed streamflow. In contrast there is an overestimated streamflow observed for MERRA reanalysis estimate. JRA-55, WFDEI, and CFSR data underestimate the streamflow. The reanalysis products are also poor in capturing the seasonal hydrograph pattern. The ERA-Interim product better represents orographic rainfall for the Beas river basin. The reason may be the ERA-Interim uses a four-dimensional variational analysis model during assimilation. The major drawback of MERRA is the non-inclusion of observed precipitation data during assimilation and modeling error. The poor performance of JRA-55, CFSR and WFDEI is due to the gauge rainfall data assimilation error. This research finding will help for broader research on hydrology and meteorology of the Himalayan region.

Abstract Transboundary rivers are often the cause of water related international disputes. One example is the Amu Darya River, with a catchment area of 470,000 km2, that passes through five countries and provides water resource for 89 million people. Intensified human activities and climate change in this region have altered hydrological processes and led to water related conflicts and ecosystem degradation. Understanding streamflow composition and quantifying the change impacts on streamflow in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) are imperative to water resources management. Here, a degree-day glacier-melt scheme coupled offline with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model (VIC-glacier), forced by daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed, is used to examine streamflow composition and changes during 1953–2019. Results show large differences in streamflow composition among the tributaries. There is a decrease in snow melt component (−260.8 m3 s−1) and rainfall component (−30.1 m3 s−1) at Kerki but an increase in glacier melt component (160.0 m3 s−1) during drought years. In contrast, there is an increase in snow melt component (378.6 m3 s−1) and rainfall component (12.0 m3 s−1) but a decrease in glacier melt component (−201.8 m3 s−1) during wet years. Using the VIC-glacier and climate elasticity approach, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow at Kerki and Kiziljar during 1956–2015 are quantified. Both methods agree and show a dominant role played by human activities in streamflow reduction, with contributions ranging 103.2– 122.1%; however, the contribution of climate change ranges in −22.1– −3.2%.

This study analyses the La Plata Basin (LPB) hydroclimate response to Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) in terms of changes in mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and river flows simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). The GLENS data used consists of three members simulations of a single model under the high anthropogenic emission scenario RCP8.5 with and without sulfur injection in the tropical stratosphere. The response of such an intervention is compared to a historical period (1980–2010) and to projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for two time slices: 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. The analysis of changes in extreme temperature and precipitation focuses on a subset of climate indices from the Expert Team of Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). To determine the possible effects of SRM in the LPB water cycle, we use the distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model in combination with daily extreme temperature and precipitation outputs from GLENS. Systematic errors in both fields were corrected by the application of a statistical bias correction method. Results show robust impacts on the water cycle of the LPB due to SRM implementation, particularly associated with increased precipitation over the northern part of the region and a general reduced warming compared to the RCP8.5 scenario. These variations would lead to regional-dependent responses in the river flows, mostly related to reductions in the severity of the extremely low flow conditions. Additionally, under the SRM scenario a reduction in extreme precipitation and a cooling effect on extreme temperatures could be expected over the LPB.

In recent years a number of dramas focussing on Indigenous Australians and Australian history have appeared on the ABC, one of Australia's two public television channels. These dramas have different foci but all represent some aspects of Australian Indigenous history and how it interacts with 'mainstream' representations of Australian history. The four programs I will look at are Cleverman (Goalpost Pictures, 2016-ongoing), Glitch (Matchbox Films, 2015-ongoing), The Secret River (Ruby Entertainment, 2015) and Redfern Now (Blackfella Films, 2012), each of which engages with the past in a unique way.Clearly, different creators, working with different plots and in different genres will have different ways of representing the past. Redfern Now and Cleverman are both produced by Indigenous creators whereas the creators of The Secret River and Glitch are white Australians. Redfern Now and The Secret River are in a realist mode, whereas Glitch and Cleverman are speculative fiction. My argument proceeds on two axes: first, speculative genres allow for more creative ways of representing the past. They give more freedom for the creators to present affective representations of the historical past. Speculative genres also allow for more interesting intellectual examinations of what we consider to be history and its uncertainties. My second axis argues, because it is hard to avoid when looking at this group of texts, that Indigenous creators represent the past in different ways than non-Indigenous creators. Indigenous creators present a more elliptical vision. Non-Indigenous creators tend to address historical stories in more overt ways. It is apparent that even when dealing with the same histories and the same facts, the understanding of the past held by different groups is presented differently because it has different affective meanings.These television programs were all made in the 2010s but the roots of their interpretations go much further back, not only to the history they represent but also to the arguments about history that have raged in Australian intellectual and popular culture. Throughout most of the twentieth century, indigenous history was not discussed in Australia, until this was disturbed by WEH Stanner's reference in the Boyer lectures of 1968 to "our great Australian silence" (Clark 73). There was, through the 1970s and 80s, increased discussion of Indigenous history, and then in the 1990s there was a period of social and cultural argument known locally as the 'History Wars'. This long-running public disagreement took place in both academic and public arenas, and involved historians, other academics, politicians, journalists and social commentators on each side. One side argued that the arrival of white people in Australia led to frontier wars, massacre, attempted genocide and the ongoing oppression of Indigenous people (Reynolds). The other posited that when white people arrived they killed a few Aborigines but mostly Aboriginal people were killed by disease or failure to 'defend' their culture (Windschuttle). The first viewpoint was revisionist from the 1960s onwards and the second represented an attempt at counter-revision – to move the understanding of history back to what it was prior to the revision. The argument took place not only among historians, but was taken up by politicians with Paul Keating, prime minister 1993-1996, holding the first view and John Howard, prime minister 1996-2007, aggressively pursuing the second. The revisionist viewpoint was championed by historians such as Henry Reynolds and Lyndall Ryan and academics and Aboriginal activists such as Tony Birch and Aileen Moreton Robinson; whereas the counter-revisionists had Keith Windschuttle and Geoffrey Blainey. By and large the revisionist viewpoint has become dominant and the historical work of the counter-revisionists is highly disputed and not accepted.This argument was prominent in Australian cultural discourse throughout the 1990s and has never entirely disappeared. The TV shows I am examining were not made in the 1990s, nor were they made in the 2000s - it took nearly twenty years for responses to the argument to make the jump from politicians' speeches and opinion pieces to television drama. John Ellis argues that the role of television in popular discourse is "working through," meaning contentious issues are first raised in news reports, then they move to current affairs, then talk shows and documentaries, then sketch comedy, then drama (Ellis). Australian Indigenous history was extensively discussed in the news, current affairs and talk shows in the 1990s, documentaries appeared somewhat later, notably First Australians in 2008, but sketch comedy and drama did not happen until in 2014, when Black Comedy's programme first aired, offering sketches engaging often and fiercely with indigenous history.The existence of this public discourse in the political and academic realms was reflected in film before television. Felicity Collins argues that the "Blak Wave" of Indigenous film came to exist in the context of, and as a response to, the history wars (Collins 232). This wave of film making by Indigenous film makers included the works of Rachel Perkins, Warwick Thornton and Ivan Sen – whose films chronicled the lives of Indigenous Australians. There was also what Collins calls "back-tracking films" such as Rabbit-Proof Fence (2002) and The Tracker (2010) made by white creators that presented arguments from the history wars for general audiences. Collins argues that both the "blak wave" and the "back track" created an alternative cultural sphere where past injustices are acknowledged. She says: "the films of the Blak Wave… cut across the history wars by turning an Indigenous gaze on the colonial past and its afterlife in the present" (Collins 232). This group of films sees Indigenous gazes relate the past and present whereas the white gaze represents specific history. In this article I examine a similar group of representations in television programs.History is not an innocent discourse. In western culture 'history' describes a certain way of looking at the past that was codified in the 19th century (Lloyd 375). It is however not the only way to look at the past, theorist Mark Day has described it as a type of relation with the past and argues that other understandings of the past such as popular memory and mythology are also available (Day). The codification of history in the 19th century involved an increased reliance on documentary evidence, a claim to objectivity, a focus on causation and, often though not always, a focus on national, political history. This sort of history became the academic understanding of history – which claims to be, if not objective, at least capable of disinterest; which bases its arguments on facts and which can establish its facts through reference to documentary records (Froeyman 219). Aileen Moreton-Robinson would call this "white patriarchal knowledge" that seeks to place the indigenous within its own type of knowledge production ("The White Man's Burden" 414). The western version of history tends to focus on causation and to present the past as a coherent narrative leading to the current point in time. This is not an undisputed conception of history in the western academy but it is common and often dominant.Post-colonialist analyses of history argue that western writing about non-western subjects is biased and forces non-westerners into categories used to oppress them (Anderson 44). These categories exist ahistorically and deny non-westerners the ability to act because if history cannot be perceived then it is difficult to see the future. That is to say, because non-western subjects in the past are not seen as historical actors, as people whose actions effected the future, then, in the present, they are unable to access to powerful arguments from history. Historians' usual methodology casts Indigenous people as the 'subjects' of history which is about them, not by them or for them (Tuhiwai Smith 7, 30-32, 144-5). Aboriginal people are characterised as prehistoric, ancient, timeless and dying (Birch 150). This way of thinking about Indigenous Australia removes all agency from Aboriginal actors and restoring agency has been a goal of Aboriginal activists and historians. Aileen Moreton Robinson discusses how Aboriginal resistance is embodied through "oral history (and) social memory," engaging with how Aboriginal actors represent themselves and are represented in relation to the past and historical settings is an important act ("Introduction" 127).Redfern Now and Cleverman were produced through the ABC's Indigenous Department and made by Indigenous filmmakers, whereas Glitch and The Secret River are from the ABC drama department and were made by white Australians. The different programs also have different generic backgrounds. Redfern Now and The Secret River are different forms of realist texts; social realism and historical realism. Cleverman and Glitch, however, are speculative fiction texts that can be argued to be in the mode of magical realism, they "denaturalise the real and naturalise the marvellous" they are also closely tied ideas of retelling colonial stories and "resignify(ing) colonial territories and pasts" (Siskind 834-5).Redfern Now was produced by Blackfella Films for the ABC. It was, with much fanfare, released as the first drama made for television, by Aboriginal people and about Aboriginal people (Blundell). The central concerns of the program are issues in the present, its plots and settings are entirely contemporary. In this way it circumvents the idea and standard representation of Indigenous Australians as ancient and timeless. It places the characters in the program very much in the present.However, one episode "Stand Up" does obliquely engage with historical concerns. In this episode a young boy, Joel Shields, gets a scholarship to an expensive private school. When he attends his first school assembly he does not sing the national anthem with the other students. This leads to a dispute with the school that forms the episode's plot. As punishment for not singing Joel is set an assignment to research the anthem, which he does and he finds the song off-putting – with the words 'boundless plains to share' particularly disconcerting. His father supports him saying "it's not our song" and compares Joel singing it to a "whitefella doing a corrobboree". The national anthem stands metaphorically for the white hegemony in Australia.The school itself is also a metaphor for hegemony. The camerawork lingers on the architecture which is intended to imply historical strength and imperviousness to challenge or change. The school stands for all the force of history white Australia can bring to bear, but in Australia, all architecture of this type is a lie, or at least an exaggeration – the school cannot be more than 200 years old and is probably much more recent.Many of the things the program says about history are conveyed in half sentences or single glances. Arguably this is because of its aesthetic mode – social realism – that prides itself on its mimicry of everyday life and in everyday life people are unlikely to set out arguments in organised dot-point form. At one point the English teacher quotes Orwell, "those who control the past control the future", which seems overt but it is stated off-screen as Joel walks into the room. This seeming aside is a statement about history and directly recalls central arguments of the history wars, which make strong political arguments about the effects of the past, and perceptions of the past, on the present and future. Despite its subtlety, this story takes place within the context of the history wars: it is about who controls the past. The subtlety of the discussion of history allows the film makers the freedom to comment on the content and effects of history and the history wars without appearing didactic. They discuss the how history has effected the present history without having to make explicit historical causes.The other recent television drama in the realist tradition is The Secret River. This was an adaptation of a novel by Kate Grenville. It deals with Aboriginal history from the perspective of white people, in this way it differs from Redfern Now which discusses the issues from the perspective of Aboriginal people. The plot concerns a man transported to Australia as a convict in the early 19th century. The man is later freed and, with his family, attempts to move to the Hawksbury river region. The land they try to settle is, of course, already in use by Aboriginal people. The show sets up the definitional conflict between the idea of settler and invader and suggests the difference between the two is a matter of perspective. Of the shows I am examining, it is the most direct in its representation of historical massacre and brutality. It represents what Felicity Collins described as a back-tracking text recapitulating the colonial past in the light of recovered knowledge. However, from an Indigenous perspective it is another settler tale implying Aboriginal people were wiped out at the time of colonisation (Godwin).The Secret River is told entirely from the perspective of the invaders. Even as it portrays their actions as wrong, it also suggests they were unavoidable or inevitable. Therefore it does what many western histories of Indigenous people do – it classifies and categorises. It sets limits on interpretation. It is also limited by its genre, as a straightforward historical drama and an adaptation, it can only tell its story in a certain way. The television series, like the book before it, prides itself on its 'accurate' rendition of an historical story. However, because it comes from such a very narrow perspective it falls into the trap of categorising histories that might have usefully been allowed to develop further.The program is based on a novel that attracted controversy of its own. It became part of ongoing historiographical debate about the relationship between fiction and history. The book's author Kate Grenville claimed to have written a kind of affectively accurate history that actual history can never convey because the emotions of the past are hidden from the present. The book was critiqued by historians including Inge Clendinnen, who argued that many of the claims made about its historical accuracy were largely overblown (Clendinnen). The book is not the same as the TV program, but the same limitations identified by Clendinnen are present in the television text. However, I would not agree with Clendinnen that formal history is any better. I argue that the limitation of both these mimetic genres can be escaped in speculative fiction.In Glitch, Yurana, a small town in rural Victoria becomes, for no apparent reason, the site of seven people rising from the dead. Each person is from a different historical period. None are Indigenous. They are not zombies but simply people who used to be dead. One of the first characters to appear in the series is an Aboriginal teenager, Beau, we see from his point of view the characters crawling from their graves. He becomes friendly with one of the risen characters, Patrick Fitzgerald, who had been the town's first mayor. At first Fitzgerald's story seems to be one of working class man made good in colonial Australia - a standard story of Australian myth and historiography. However, it emerges that Fitzgerald was in love with an Aboriginal woman called Kalinda and Beau is his descendant. Fitzgerald, once he becomes aware of how he has been remembered by history, decides to revise the history of the town – he wants to reclaim his property from his white descendants and give it to his Indigenous descendants. Over the course of the six episodes Fitzgerald moves from being represented as a violent, racist boor who had inexplicably become the town's mayor, to being a romantic whose racism was mostly a matter of vocabulary. Beau is important to the plot and he is a sympathetic character but he is not central and he is a child. Indigenous people in the past have no voice in this story – when flashbacks are shown they are silent, and in the present their voices are present but not privileged or central to the plot.The program demonstrates a profoundly metaphorical relationship with the past – the past has literally come to life bringing with it surprising buried histories. The program represents some dominant themes in Australian historiography – other formerly dead characters include a convict-turned-bush-ranger, a soldier who was at Gallipoli, two Italian migrants and a girl who died as a result of sexual violence – but it does not engage directly with Indigenous history. Indigenous people's stories are told only in relation to the stories of white people. The text's magical realism allows a less prescriptive relationship with the past than in The Secret River but it is still restricted in its point of view and allows only limited agency to Aboriginal actors.The text's magical realism allows for a thought-provoking representation of relationships with the past. The town of Yurana is represented as a place deeply committed to the representation and glorification of its past. Its main street contains statues of its white founders and war memorials, one of its main social institutions is the RSL, its library preserves relics of the past and its publican is a war history buff. All these indicate that the past is central to the town's identity. The risen dead however dispute and revise almost every aspect of this past. Even the history that is unmentioned in the town's apparent official discourse, such as the WWII internment camp and the history of crimes, is disputed by the different stories of the past that the risen dead have to tell. This indicates the uncertainty of the past, even when it seems literally set in stone it can still be revised. Nonetheless the history of Indigenous people is only revised in ways that re-engage with white history.Cleverman is a magical realist text profoundly based in allegory. The story concerns the emergence into a near future society of a group of people known as the "Hairies." It is never made clear where they came from or why but it seems they appeared recently and are unable to return. They are an allegory for refugees. Hairypeople are part of many Indigenous Australian stories, the show's creator, Ryan Griffen, stated that "there are different hairy stories throughout Australia and they differ in each country. You have some who are a tall, some are short, some are aggressive, some are friendly. We got to sort of pick which ones will fit for us and create the Hairies for our show" (Bizzaca).The Hairies are forced to live in an area called the Zone, which, prior to the arrival of the Hairy people, was a place where Aboriginal people lived. This place might be seen as a metaphor for Redfern but it is also an allegory for Australia's history of displacing Aboriginal people and moving and restricting them to missions and reserves. The Zone is becoming increasingly securitised and is also operating as a metaphor for Australia's immigration detention centres. The prison the Hairy characters, Djukura and Bunduu, are confined to is yet another metaphor, this time for both the over-representation of Aboriginal people in prison and the securitisation of immigration detention. These multiple allegorical movements place Australia's present refugee policies and historical treatment of Aboriginal people within the same lens. They also place the present, the past and the future within the same narrative space.Most of the cast is Aboriginal and much of the character interaction is between Aboriginal people and Hairies, with both groups played by Indigenous actors. The disadvantages suffered by Indigenous people are part of the story and clearly presented as affecting the behaviour of characters but within the story Aboriginal people are more advantaged than Hairies, as they have systems, relationships and structures that Hairy people lack. The fact that so much of the interaction in the story is between Indigenous people and Hairies is important: it can be seen to be an interaction between Aboriginal people and Aboriginal mythology or between Indigenous past and present. It demonstrates Aboriginal identities being created in relation to other Aboriginal identities and not in relation to white people, where in this narrative, Aboriginal people have an identity other than that allowed for in colonialist terms.Cleverman does not really engage with the history of white invasion. The character who speaks most about this part of Aboriginal history and whose stated understanding of himself is based on that identity is Waruu. But Waruu is also a villain whose self-identity is also presented as jealous and dishonest. However, despite only passing mentions of westernised history the show is deeply concerned with a relationship with the past. The program engages with Aboriginal traditions about the past that have nothing to do with white history. It presents a much longer view of history than that of white Australia. It engages with the Aboriginal tradition of the Cleverman - demonstrated in the character of Uncle Jimmy who passes a nulla nulla (knob-headed hardwood club), as a symbol of the past, to his nephew Koen and tells him he is the new Cleverman. Cleverman demonstrates a discussion of Australian history with the potential to ignore white people. It doesn't ignore them, it doesn't ignore the invasion but it presents the possibility that it could be ignored.There is a danger in this sort of representation of the past that Aboriginal people could be relegated to the type of ahistorical, metahistorical myths that comprise colonialist history's representation of Indigenous people (Birch). But Cleverman's magical realist, near future setting tends to undermine this. It grounds representation in history through text and metaphor and then expands the definition.The four programs have different relationships with the past but all of them engage with it. The programs are both restrained and freed by the genres they operate in. It is much easier to escape the bounds of formal history in the genre of magical realism and both Glitch and Cleverman do this but have significantly different ways of dealing with history. "Stand up" and The Secret River both operate within more formally realist structures. The Secret River gives us an emotional reading of the past and a very affective one. However, it cuts off avenues of interpretation by presenting a seemingly inevitable tragedy. Through use of metaphor and silence "Stand up" presents a much more productive relationship with the past – seeing it as an ongoing argument rather than a settled one. Glitch engages with the past as a topic that is not settled and that can therefore be changed whereas Cleverman expands our definition of past and understanding of the past through allegory.It is possible to draw further connections. Those stories created by Indigenous people do not engage with the specifics of traditional dominant Australian historiography. However, they work with the assumption that everyone already knows this historiography. They do not re-present the pain of the past, instead they deal with it in oblique terms with allegory. Whereas the programs made by non-Indigenous Australians are much more overt in their representation of the sins of the past, they overtly engage with the History Wars in specific historical arenas in which those wars were fought. The non-Indigenous shows align themselves with the revisionist view of history but they do so in a very different way than the Indigenous shows.ReferencesAnderson, Ian. "Introduction: The Aboriginal Critique of Colonial Knowing." Blacklines: Contemporary Critical Writing by Indigenous Australians. Ed. Michele Grossman. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 2003.Birch, Tony. "'Nothing Has Changed': The Making and Unmaking of Koori Culture." Blacklines: Contemporary Critical Writing by Indigenous Australians. Ed. Michele Grossman. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 2003.Bizzaca, Chris. "The World of Cleverman." Screen Australia 2016.Blundell, Graeme. "Redfern Now Delves into the Lives of Ordinary People." The Australian 26 Oct. 2013: News Review.Clark, Anna. History's Children: History Wars in the Classroom. Sydney: New South, 2008.Clendinnen, Inga. “The History Question: Who Owns the Past?” The Quarterly Essay. Melbourne: Black Inc., 2006.Collins, Felicity. "After Dispossession: Blackfella Films and the Politics of Radical Hope." The Routledge Companion to Cinema and Politics. Eds. Yannis Tzioumakis and Claire Molloy. New York: Routledge, 2016.Day, Mark. "Our Relations with the Past." Philosophia 36.4 (2008): 417-27.Ellis, John. Seeing Things: Television in the Age of Uncertainty. London: I.B. Tauris, 2000.Froeyman, Anton. "The Ideal of Objectivity and the Public Role of the Historian: Some Lessons from the Historikerstreit and the History Wars." Rethinking History 20.2 (2016): 217-34.Godwin, Carisssa Lee. "Shedding the 'Victim Narrative' for Tales of Magic, Myth and Superhero Pride." The Conversation 2016.Lloyd, Christopher. "Historiographic Schools." A Companion to the Philosophy of History and Historiography Ed. Tucker, Aviezer. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2009.Moreton-Robinson, Aileen. "Introduction: Resistance, Recovery and Revitalisation." Blacklines: Contemporary Critical Writing by Indigenous Australians. Ed. Michele Grossman. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 2003.———. "The White Man's Burden." Australian Feminist Studies 26.70 (2011): 413-31.Reynolds, Henry. The Other Side of the Frontier: Aboriginal Resistance to the European Invasion of Australia. 2nd ed. Ringwood, Vic.: Penguin Books, 1995.Siskind, Mariano. "Magical Realism." The Cambridge History of Postcolonial Literature. Vol. 2. Ed. Ato Quayson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012. 833-68.Tuhiwai Smith, Linda. Decolonizing Methodologies Research and Indigenous Peoples. 2nd ed. London: Zed Books, 2012.Windschuttle, Keith. The Fabrication of Aboriginal History. Paddington, NSW: Macleay Press, 2002.

Australian suburbia, historically and culturally, has been viewed as a feminised domain, associated with the domestic and family, routine and order. Where “the city is coded as a masculine and disorderly space… suburbia, as a realm of domesticity and the family, is coded as a feminine and disciplinary space” (Wilson 46). This article argues how the treatment of suburbia in fiction as “feminine” has impacted not only on the representation and development of the character of the “suburban female”, but also on the shape and form of her narrative journeys. Suburbia’s subordination as domestic and everyday, a restrictive realm of housework and child rearing, refers to the anti-suburban critique and establishes the dichotomy of suburbia/feminine/domesticity in contrast to bush or city/masculine/freedom as first observed by Marilyn Lake in her analysis of 1890s Australia. Despite the fact that suburbia necessarily contains the “masculine” as well as the “feminine”, the “feminine” dominates to such an extent that positive masculine traits are threatened there. In social commentary and also literature, the former is viewed negatively as a state from which to escape. As Tim Rowse suggests, “women, domesticity = spiritual starvation. (Men, wide open spaces, achievement = heroism of the Australian spirit)” (208). In twentieth-century Australian fiction, this is especially the case for male characters, the preservation of whose masculinity often depends on a flight from the suburbs to elsewhere—the bush, the city, or overseas. In Patrick White’s The Tree Of Man (1955), for example, During identifies the recurrent male character of the “tear-away” who “flee(s) domesticity and family life” (96). Novelist George Johnston also establishes a satirical depiction of suburbia as both suffocatingly feminine and as a place to escape at any cost. For example, in My Brother Jack (1964), David Meredith “craves escape from the ‘shabby suburban squalor’ into which he was born” (Gerster 566). Suburbia functions as a departure point for the male protagonist who must discard any remnants of femininity, imposed on him by his suburban childhood, before embarking upon narratives of adventure and maturation as far away from the suburbs as possible. Thus, flight becomes essential to the development of male protagonist and proliferates as a narrative trajectory in Australian fiction. Andrew McCann suggests that its prevalence establishes a fictional “struggle with and escape from the suburb as a condition of something like a fully developed personality” (Decomposing 56-57). In this case, any literary attempt to transform the “suburban female”, a character inscribed by her gender and her locale, without recourse to flight appears futile. However, McCann’s assertion rests on a literary tradition of male flight from suburbia, not female. A narrative of female flight is a relatively recent phenomenon, influenced by the second wave feminism of the 1970s and 1980s. For most of the twentieth century, the suburban female typically remained in suburbia, a figure of neglect, satire, and exploitation. A reading of twentieth-century Australian fiction until the 1970s implies that flight from suburbia was not a plausible option for the average “suburban female”. Rather, it is the exceptional heroine, such as Teresa in Christina Stead’s For Love Alone (1945), who is brave, ambitious, or foolish enough to leave, and when she does there were often negative consequences. For most however, suburbia was a setting where she belonged despite its negative attributes. These attributes of conformity and boredom, repetition, and philistinism, as presented by proponents of anti-suburbanism, are mainly depicted as problematic to male characters, not female. Excluded from narratives of flight, for most of the twentieth-century the suburban female typically remained in suburbia, a figure of neglect, satire, and even exploitation, her stories mostly untold. The character of the suburban female emerges out of the suburban/feminine/domestic dichotomy as a recurrent, albeit negative, character in Australian fiction. As Rowse states, the negative image of suburbia is transferred to an equally negative image of women (208). At best, the suburban female is a figure of mild satire; at worst, a menacing threat to masculine values. Male writers George Johnston, Patrick White and, later, David Ireland, portrayed the suburban female as a negative figure, or at least an object of satire, in the life of a male protagonist attempting to escape suburbia and all it stood for. In his satirical novels and plays, for example, Patrick White makes “the unspoken assumption… that suburbia is an essentially female domain” (Gerster 567), exemplifying narrow female stereotypes who “are dumb and age badly, ending up in mindless, usually dissatisfied, maternity and domesticity” (During 95). Feminist Anne Summers condemns White for his portrayal of women which she interprets as a “means of evading having to cope with women as unique and diverse individuals, reducing them instead to a sexist conglomerate”, and for his use of women to “represent suburban stultification” (88). Typically “wife” or “mother”, the suburban female is often used as a convenient device of oppositional resistance to a male lead, while being denied her own voice or story. In Johnston’s My Brother Jack (1964), for example, protagonist David Meredith contrasts “the subdued vigour of fulfillment tempered by a powerful and deeply-lodged serenity” (215) of motherhood displayed by Jack’s wife Shelia with the “smart and mannish” (213) Helen, but nothing deeper is revealed about the inner lives of these female characters. Feminist scholars identify a failure to depict the suburban female as more than a useful stereotype, partially attributing the cause of this failure to a surfeit of patriarchal stories featuring adventuresome male heroes and set in the outback or on foreign battlefields. Summers states how “more written words have been devoted to creating, and then analysing and extolling… [the] Australian male than to any other single facet of Australian life” (82-83). Where she is more active, the suburban female is a malignant force, threatening to undermine masculine goals of self-realisation or achievement, or at her worst, to wholly emasculate the male protagonist such that he is incapable of escape. Even here the motivations behind her actions are not revealed and she appears two-dimensional, viewed only in relation to her destructive effect on the weakened male protagonist. In her criticism of David Ireland’s The Glass Canoe (1976), Joan Kirkby observes how “the suburbs are populated with real women who are represented in the text as angry mothers and wives or simply as the embodiment of voraciously feral sexuality” (5). In those few instances where the suburban female features as more than an accessory to the male narrative, she lacks the courage and inner strength to embark upon her own journey out of suburbia. Instead, she is depicted as a victim, misunderstood and miserable, entrapped by the suburban milieu to which she is meant to belong but, for some unexplored reason, does not. The inference is that this particular suburban female is atypical, potentially flawed in her inability to find contentment within a region strongly designated her own. The unhappy suburban female is therefore tragic, or at least pitiable, languishing in a suburban environment that she loathes, often satirised for her futile resistance to the status quo. Rarely is she permitted the masculine recourse of flight. In those exceptional instances where she does leave, however, she is unlikely to find what she is looking for. A subsequent return to the place of childhood, most often situated in suburbia, is a recurrent narrative in many stories of Australian female protagonist, but less so the male protagonist. Although this mistreatment of the suburban female is most prevalent in fiction by male writers, female writers were also criticised for failing to give a true and authentic voice to her character, regardless of the broader question of whether writers should be truthful in their characterisations. For example, Summers criticises Henry Handel Richardson as “responsible for, if not creating, then at least providing a powerful reinforcement to the idea that women as wives are impediments to male self-realisation” with characters who “reappear, with the monotonous regularity of the weekly wash, as stereotyped and passive suburban housewives” (87-88). All this changed, however, with the arrival of second wave feminism leading to a proliferation of stories of female exodus from the suburbs. A considered portrait of the life of the suburban female in suburbia was neglected in favour of a narrative journey; a trend attributable in part to a feminist polemic that granted her freedom, adventure, and a story so long as she did not dare choose to stay. During the second wave feminism of the 1970s and 1980s, women were urged by leading figures such as Betty Friedan and Germaine Greer to abandon ascribed roles of housewife and mother, led typically in the suburbs, in pursuit of new freedoms and adventures. As Lesley Johnson and Justine Lloyd note, “in exhorting women to ‘leave home’ and find their fulfillment in the world of work, early second wave feminists provided a life story through which women could understand themselves as modern individuals” (154) and it is this “life story” which recurs in women’s fiction of the time. Women writers, many of whom identified as feminist, mirrored these trajectories of flight from suburbia in their novels, transplanting the suburban female from her suburban setting to embark upon “new” narratives of self-discovery. The impact of second wave feminism upon the literary output of Australian women writers during the 1970s and 1980s has been firmly established by feminist scholars Johnson, Lloyd, Lake, and Susan Sheridan, who were also active participants in the movement. Sheridan argues that there has been a strong “relationship of women’s cultural production to feminist ideas and politics” (Faultlines xi) and Johnson identifies a “history of feminism as an awakening” at the heart of these “life stories” (11). Citing Mary Morris, feminist Janet Woolf remarks flight as a means by which a feminine history of stagnation is remedied: “from Penelope to the present, women have waited… If we grow weary of waiting, we can go on a journey” (xxii). The appeal of these narratives may lie in attempts by their female protagonists to find new ways of being outside the traditional limits of a domestic, commonly suburban, existence. Flight, or movement, features as a recurrent narrative mode by which these alternative realities are configured, either by mimicking or subverting traditional narrative forms. Indeed, selection of the appropriate narrative form for these emancipatory journeys differed between writers and became the subject of vigorous, feminist and literary debate. For some feminists, the linear narrative was the only true path to freedom for the female protagonist. Following the work of Carolyn G. Heilbrun and Elaine Showalter, Joy Hooton observes how some feminist critics privileged “the integrated ego and the linear destiny, regarding women’s difference in self-realization as a failure or deprivation” (90). Women writers such as Barbara Hanrahan adopted the traditional linear trajectory, previously reserved for the male protagonist as bushman or soldier, explorer or drifter, to liberate the “suburban female”. These stories feature the female protagonist trading a stultifying life in the suburbs for the city, overseas or, less typically, the outback. During these geographical journeys, she is transformed from her narrow suburban self to a more actualised, worldly self in the mode of a traditional, linear Bildungsroman. For example, Hanrahan’s semi-autobiographical debut The Scent of Eucalyptus (1973) is a story of escape from oppressive suburbia, “concentrating on that favourite Australian theme, the voyage overseas” (Gelder and Salzman, Diversity 63). Similarly, Sea-green (1974) features a “rejection of domestic drabness in favour of experience in London” (Goodwin 252) and Kewpie Doll (1984) is another narrative of flight from the suburbs, this time via pursuit of “an artistic life” (253). In these and other novels, the act of relocation to a specific destination is necessary to transformation, with the inference that the protagonist could not have become what she is at the end of the story without first leaving the suburbs. However, use of this linear narrative, which is also coincidentally anti-suburban, was criticised by Summers (86) for being “masculinist”. To be truly free, she argued, the female protagonist needed to forge her own unique paths to liberation, rather than relying on established masculine lines. Evidence of a “new” non-linear narrative in novels by women writers was interpreted by feminist and literary scholars Gillian Whitlock, Margaret Henderson, Ann Oakley, Sheridan, Johnson, and Summers, as an attempt to capture the female experience more convincingly than the linear form that had been used to recount stories of the journeying male as far back as Homer. Typifying the link between the second wave feminism and fiction, Helen Garner’s Monkey Grip features Nora’s nomadic, non-linear “flights” back and forth across Melbourne’s inner suburbs. Nora’s promiscuity belies her addiction to romantic love that compromises her, even as she struggles to become independent and free. In this way, Nora’s quest for freedom­—fragmented, cyclical, repetitive, impeded by men— mirrors Garner’s “attempt to capture certain areas of female experience” (Gelder and Salzman, Diversity 55), not accessible via a linear narrative. Later, in Honour and Other People’s Children (1980) and The Children’s Bach (1984), the protagonists’ struggles to achieve self-actualisation within a more domesticated, family setting perhaps cast doubt on the efficacy of the feminist call to abandon family, motherhood, and all things domestic in preference for the masculinist tradition of emancipatory flight. Pam Gilbert, for instance, reads The Children’s Bach as “an extremely perceptive analysis of a woman caught within spheres of domesticity, nurturing, loneliness, and sexuality” (18) via the character of “protected suburban mum, Athena” (19). The complexity of this characterisation of a suburban female belies the anti-suburban critique by not resorting to satire or stereotype, but by engaging deeply with a woman’s life inside suburbia. It also allows that flight from suburbia is not always possible, or even desired. Also seeming to contradict the plausibility of linear flight, Jessica Anderson’s Tirra Lirra by the River (1978), features (another) Nora returning to her childhood Brisbane after a lifetime of flight; first from her suburban upbringing and then from a repressive marriage to the relative freedoms of London. The poignancy of the novel, set towards the end of the protagonist’s life, rests in Nora’s inability to find a true sense of belonging, despite her migrations. She “has spent most of her life waiting, confined to houses or places that restrict her, places she feels she does not belong to, including her family home, the city of Brisbane, her husband’s house, Australia itself” (Gleeson-White 184). Thus, although Nora’s life can be read as “the story of a very slow emergence from a doomed attempt to lead a conventional, married life… into an independent existence in London” (Gelder and Salzman, Diversity 65), the novel suggests that the search for belonging—at least for Australian women—is problematic. Moreover, any narrative of female escape from suburbia is potentially problematic due to the gendering of suburban experience as feminine. The suburban female who leaves suburbia necessarily rejects not only her “natural” place of belonging, but domesticity as a way of being and, to some extent, even her sex. In her work on memoir, Hooton identifies a stark difference between the shape of female and male biography to argue that women’s experience of life is innately non-linear. However, the use of non-linear narrative by feminist fiction writers of the second wave was arguably more conscious, even political in seeking a new, untainted form through which to explore the female condition. It was a powerful notion, arguably contributing to a golden age of women’s writing by novelists Helen Garner, Barbara Hanrahan, Jessica Anderson, and others. It also exerted a marked effect on fiction by Kate Grenville, Amanda Lohrey, and Janette Turner Hospital, as well as grunge novelists, well into the 1990s. By contrast, other canonical, albeit older, women writers of the time, Thea Astley and Elizabeth Jolley, neither of whom identified as feminist (Fringe 341; Neuter 196), do not seek to “rescue” the suburban female from her milieu. Like Patrick White, Astley seems, at least superficially, to perpetuate narrow stereotypes of the suburban female as “mindless consumers of fashion” and/or “signifiers of sexual disorder” (Sheridan, Satirist 262). Although flight is permitted those female characters who “need to ‘vanish’ if they are to find some alternative to narrow-mindedness and social oppression” (Gelder and Salzman, Celebration 186), it has little to do with feminism. As Brian Matthews attests of Astley’s work, “nothing could be further from the world-view of the second wave feminist writers of the 1980s” (76) and indeed her female characters are generally less sympathetic than those inhabiting novels by the “feminist” writers. Jolley also leaves the female protagonist to fend for herself, with a more optimistic, forceful vision of “female characters who, in their sheer eccentricity, shed any social expectations” to inhabit “a realm empowered by the imagination” (Gelder and Salzman, Celebration 194). If Jolley’s suburban females desire escape then they must earn it, not by direct or shifting relocations, but via other, more extreme and often creative, modes of transformation. These two writers however, were exceptional in their resistance to the influence of second wave feminism. Thus, three narrative categories emerge in which the suburban female may be transformed: linear flight from suburbia, non-linear flight from suburbia, or non-flight whereby the protagonist remains inside suburbia throughout the entire novel. Evidence of a rejection of the flight narrative by contemporary Australian women writers may signal a re-examination of the suburban female within, not outside, her suburban setting. It may also reveal a weakening of the influence of both second wave feminism and anti-suburban critiques on this much maligned character of Australian fiction, and on suburbia as a fictional setting. References Anderson, Jessica. Tirra Lirra by the River. Melbourne: Macmillan, 1978. Astley, Thea. “Writing as a Neuter: Extracts from Interview by Candida Baker.” Eight Voices of the Eighties: Stories, Journalism and Criticism by Australian Women Writers. Ed. 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