Academic literature on the topic 'Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Journal articles on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Vunjak, Nenad, Miloš Dragosavac, Jelena Vitomir, and Petra Stojanović. "Central and South – Eastern Europe Banking Sectors in the Sustainable Development Function." ECONOMICS 8, no. 1 (June 1, 2020): 51–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2020-0009.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractChanges in banking sectors with the onset of the global financial crisis were related to: globalization, sector deregulation, technological change and financial innovation. Structural changes within banking services (at the end of the 20th century) relate to: the consolidation of banks, the merging of banking and non-banking financial institutions and their competition with one another. Significant place in the part of sustainable development belongs to bank performance, vision and mission of banks. The corporate vision of banks should be the “framework” for the future development of a bank. The corporate mission should be a “roadmap” to the realization of the bank’s vision and an expression of the business philosophy of the bank in question.It is of particular importance for the banking sectors of the CEE countries to define: the vision, the mission, the situational analysis and the planned long-term goals of the bank. With the advent of the global financial crisis, the financial activity of banks in the Central and Southeastern European region decreased, as the number of attractive fusion and acquisition banks in the region concerned was reduced.The aim of the research is to determine the importance of the vision, mission and clearly set goals in banks, where the analysis of banking sectors in 13 countries over a period of 11 years was carried out. The analysis of GDP and its growth in the period from 2008 to 2018 indicates a dynamic growth in the countries of Central Europe and some countries of Southeast Europe. The analysis of the assets of the banking sector and its share in GDP indicates the dominant participation of the countries of Central and Southeastern Europe that are members of the European Union relative to the candidate countries for EU member states. Analysis of the banking sector of the influx countries shows that more than 70% of the banking market in Southeast European countries is influenced by foreign highly developed banking groups. Sustainable development can only be achieved through the active joint action of the banking sectors of the Central and Southeast European countries.
2
Doran, Nicoleta Mihaela, Roxana Maria Bădîrcea, and Alina Georgiana Manta. "Digitization and Financial Performance of Banking Sectors Facing COVID-19 Challenges in Central and Eastern European Countries." Electronics 11, no. 21 (October 26, 2022): 3483. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics11213483.
Full textAbstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic deeply impacted not only human wealth but also all segments of the economy as well as the field of technology. Thus, the purpose of this paper was to analyze the effects that the pandemic crisis and digitization have had on the financial performance of banks in Central and Eastern European Union countries (CEEC) during the 2010–2021 period. In order to capture an overview of the financial performance of the banking systems in the 10 CEECs, we used three variables—ROA, ROE and NPL—as reference indicators. In order to highlight the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of banking systems, we used the number of reported cases as a variable, and to highlight the impact of digitization, we used as indicators the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults, number of certificates of secure internet servers, number of credit cards, number of debit cards, percentage of individuals using internet banking, and the number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults. Thus, the impact of digitization and the pandemic crisis generated by the COVID-19 virus on the performance of the banking systems in the 10 CEECs is outlined through three regression models using the robust regression model. The obtained results show that, as the infection rates with COVID-19 increased, the performance of banks measured by ROE and ROA decreased. Regarding the impact of digitization on performance, we note that an increase in the use of internet banking and the security of bank servers generated positive effects on the performance of banks. The results of the study are useful for banking product development departments, who should consider the important role of digitization in increasing the performance of banking services and thus design new digital products or ways to expand existing ones on a larger scale.
3
Zielińska, Klaudia. "Unknown Future of the Banking Union’s Third Pillar." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 19(34), no. 1 (April 1, 2019): 172–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2019.19.1.16.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of the article is to evaluate the process of building the third pillar of the banking union. The analysis of the problem required both subject literature studies and descriptive statistics. Time scope of the analysis covers the years 2012 until 2017. The relevant data used came from the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority. The results of the study suggest that the creation of a European Deposit Guarantee Scheme is inevitable for further financial integration in the Eurozone but more detailed conditions need to be added to its implementation plan in order to have the scheme established. This stems from both the bad financial standing of some of the euro area banks and their dependency on the sovereign debt of their home and host countries. Studies also indicate low operational readiness of the national schemes, so a transition from re-insurance onto co-insurance phase will require increased efforts of both the Member States and the banks themselves.
4
Jemović, Mirjana, and Borko Krstić. "Comparative Analysis of Financial Stability Policy of The National Bank of Serbia and The European Central Bank." Economic Themes 53, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 142–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ethemes-2015-0009.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractThe Republic of Serbia has successfully completed the first part in the European Union integration process, being granted candidate status for membership in the European Union (EU). The stage of accession negotiations is in progress, and it includes the full harmonization with the EU acquis, whereby the analytical review of legislation, the so-called screening is being carried out in 35 chapters. The global financial crisis that affected our country in 2008 has required a timely reaction of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) in order to preserve the financial system stability, especially the banking sector as its most important segment. As the financial services sector adjusts within chapter 9, the aim of this paper is to assess the level of compliance of national legislation with the EU legislation regarding banking sector. Along with the regulatory initiatives in the field of preserving financial stability in the EU countries, the NBS has paid great attention to the harmonization of its financial stability policy with the financial stability policy of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB).
5
Gutiérrez-López, Cristina, and Julio Abad-González. "Sustainability in the Banking Sector: A Predictive Model for the European Banking Union in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (March 24, 2020): 2566. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062566.
Full textAbstract:
Given the central role of banks in financial stability and the recent impact of their insufficient capitalization, this article focuses on finding determinants of their solvency through financial variables. The study considers the European Banking Union framework and the results of the latter stress test exercises, using a panel of the 45 banks based in 15 European countries that were stress tested in 2014, 2016 and 2018. This paper models bank soundness proxied by the stressed tier capital 1 ratio by means of financial indicators representing a CAMELS (Capital, Assets quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk) approach as well as global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs) additional requirements. The model also specifies a dummy covariate referred to the disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, adopting a comprehensive sustainability scheme. The research period starts with the European Banking Union and includes the three exercises conducted since then. We find that financial sustainability is positively correlated with higher capitalization, earnings and liquid assets, while poor quality assets (high non-performing loans) and inefficiency impact negatively on bank soundness. Moreover, it considers the year-scenario interaction either as a fixed or a random effect. The results support capital and liquidity regulation and highlight factors that reinforce banking soundness. They also reveal a positive connection between CSR and banking solvency.
6
Skenderi, Sibora. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: To issue, or not to issue, that is the question- Legal and Economic Implications in the EU and, the Albanian Perspective." European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research 10, no. 8 (August 15, 2022): 56–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.37745/ejaafr.2013/vol10n85677.
Full textAbstract:
This research paper aims to serve as an added value to enrich the literature regarding the Central Banks Digital Currency and all its possible implications impacting the financial system. Our focus is on analysing CBDC from different perspectives, by analysing the motivations and concerns that lead countries with different economic conditions to introduce for their public this innovation as well as, to analyse the implications it poses due to significant fields of banking sector at whole, in terms of commercial banks, monetary policy of central bank or all the spikes that may happen in financial stability. The imminent allocation of crypto currencies has been the catalyst which has prompted Central Banks of various countries in Europe and beyond, to launch complex studies focusing on the implementation of macroeconomic policies in the context of digital currency issued by Central Banks. In prima facie overview, this process will be accompanied by various challenges, ascertained these challenges in the economic field but also in the legal one. This research paper, inter alia, aims to analyse the legal regulatory framework at the level of the European Union, taking into account the potential implications, material and procedural difficulties as well as, the economic effects that may derive from the issuance of digital currency issued by Central Banks. Along with analysation of EU legal framework in this research paper shall be analysed also the perspective of the Republic of Albania, as a candidate country for membership in the European Union which has the obligation to harmonize legislation with the aquis communiter.
7
Ćurić, Predrag, Rodoljub Topić, and Bojana Vilendečić. "Banking Sector of the Republic of Serbian in Terms of Transition." ECONOMICS 4, no. 1 (June 1, 2016): 45–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/eoik-2015-0028.
Full textAbstract:
Summary Privatisation of the banking sector is an inseparable part of development strategies used by the countries in transition. The process of transition and building a financial and market-oriented system is a complex and long-term task which, in addition to a variety of legal arrangements, involves also several institutional options, such as the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Banking Agency of the Republic of Srpska and Banja Luka Stock Exchange of Securities. The transition process of the banking sector in the Republic of Srpska was not implemented by rehabilitation of existing domestic banks, but by opening the banking system for the entry of foreign, more efficient banks. The level of trust in the banking sector grew in parallel with the process of bank privatisation and the arrival of foreign banks. Throughout the previous period, all the banks in the Republic of Srpska recorded a significant increase in the amount of deposits and loans placed, which implies the growth of investment and economic activities, therefore indicating the increase of the Republic of Srpska’s GDP in general. These are positive trends that demonstrate a decrease in the current lagging behind the European Union.
8
Silva, Célia Taborda. "Protests in Europe in Times of Crisis -The Case of Greece, Ireland and Portugal." European Journal of Social Sciences 5, no. 2 (October 1, 2022): 97–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eujss-2022-0019.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The year 2008 was marked by a financial crisis that started in the United States but quickly spread to the rest of the world. Subprime-related, this crisis was linked to property speculation, leveraged by the banking sector. This crisis quickly spread to Europe due to exposure of European economies to international markets. To avoid economic collapse the States decided to intervene in the banking sector, nationalizing some banks and injecting capital in others. Some European countries not to enter bankruptcy had to ask for external financial support between 2010-11, was the case of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The aid granted by the Troika (European Union, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) to European countries referenced advocated a drastic austerity plan. Faced with such a scenario of crisis, austerity, unemployment and precariousness, Europeans came to the streets to demonstrate their discontent with the crisis but also with politicians and policies implemented to solve the economic problems. Throughout Europe there were large protests, especially in the countries that received international aid. From a corpus taken from newspapers and from a theoretical framework of social movements we intend to verify if there was a direct relationship between crisis and contestation in the three countries that had external aid and if this crisis returned the centrality to materials on European social movements.
9
David, Delia, Shailendra Kumar Rai, and Luminita Paiusan. "Appreciation of the Swiss Franc and its Impact on Romania and other Central and Eastern European Countries." Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series 25, no. 4 (November 1, 2015): 11–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/sues-2015-0024.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The decision of the Swiss National Bank of giving up the fixed rate of 1,2 Euro/CHF on the 15th of January 2015, a rate established at its admission to the Monetary Economic Union, had consequences on Central and Eastern European countries because a great part of the credits granted were in Swiss francs. In all these countries, the national currencies depreciated and the financial market rates were reduced. Regional banks started to face difficulties regarding the management of the situation and were under the necessity of finding solutions to avoid the risk of not recovering the granted credits. The issue of the Swiss franc appreciation was treated differently by the analysed countries and took into consideration the particularities characteristic to the credits granted in this currency. The present paper aims at emphasising the impact of the Swiss franc appreciation on the Romanian banking system but also the approach of other countries in Central and Eastern Europe in this respect.
10
Ershov, Vitalii F. "EUROPEAN UNION FINANCIAL POLICY IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY. EXPERIENCE AND PROSPECTS." RSUH/RGGU Bulletin. Series Eurasian studies. History. Political science. International relations, no. 3 (2020): 10–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.28995/2686-7648-2020-3-10-28.
Full textAbstract:
The paper deals with the formation of a modern style of financial relations between the European Union and post-Soviet states. The author explores the objectives and features of the implementation of two main components of the European financial policy in the post-Soviet space: investment in the development and commercial activities of private capital. The EU financial policy in the post-Soviet states advances in the context of pan-European humanitarian, geopolitical and energy concepts established at the beginning of the 21st century. Despite certain differences that exist in the approaches of the European Union to dialogue with groups of countries within the frameworks of the Eastern Partnership and the EU Strategy for Central Asia, a common line is seen here on investments in promoting the education, European values, legal standards of banking. At the same time, in relations between Europe and the post-Soviet countries there is a tendency towards the adoption of the principles of financial pragmatism and a desire for long-term investment ties. The expanding role of the European banks and investment companies in economic life in the post-Soviet space is in direct connection with the realization of the modernization potential in post-Soviet states.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Seiter, Corina. "Vergleich historischer Währungsunionen und Zentralbankensysteme als Lehrstück für die Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion /." Berlin : Dissertation.de, 2002. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=009800656&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Full text
2
Pasiouras, Fotios. "Development of bank acquisition targets prediction models." Thesis, Coventry University, 2005. http://curve.coventry.ac.uk/open/items/ecf1b00d-da92-9bd2-5b02-fa4fab8afb0c/1.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis develops a range of prediction models for the purpose of predicting the acquisition of commercial banks in the European Union using publicly available data. Over the last thirty years, there have been approximately 30 studies that have attempted to identify potential acquisition targets, all of them focusing on non-bank sectors. We consider that prediction models developed specifically for the banking industry are essential due to the unusual structure of banks' financial statements, differences in the environment in which banks operate and other specific characteristics of banks that in general distinguish them from non-financial firms. We focus specifically on the EU banking sector, where M&As activity has been considerable in recent years, yet academic research relating to the EU has been rather limited compared to the case of the US. The methodology for developing prediction models involved identifying past cases of acquired banks and combining these with non-acquired banks in order to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various quantitative classification techniques. In this study, we construct a base sample of commercial banks covering 15 EU countries, and financial variables measuring capital strength, profit and cost efficiency, liquidity, growth, size and market power, with data in both raw and country-adjusted (i.e. raw variables divided by the average of the banking sector for the corresponding country) form. In order to allow for a proper comparative evaluation of classification methods, we select common subsets of the base sample and variables with high discriminatory power, dividing the sample period (1998-2002) into training sub-sample for model development (1998-2000), and holdout sub-sample for model evaluation (2001-2002). Although the results tend to support the findings of studies on non-financial firms, highlighting the difficulties in predicting acquisition targets, the prediction models we develop show classification accuracies generally higher than chance assignment based on prior probabilities. We also consider the use of equal and unequal matched holdout samples for evaluation, and find that overall classification accuracy tends to increase in the unequal matched samples, implying that equal matched samples do not necessarily overstate the prediction ability of models. The main goal of this study has been to compare and evaluate a variety of classification methods including statistical, econometric, machine learning and operational research techniques, as well as integrated techniques combining the predictions of individual classification methods. We found that some methods achieved very high accuracies in classifying non-acquired banks, but at the cost of relatively poor accuracy performance in classifying acquired banks. This suggests a trade-off in achieving high classification accuracy, although some methods (e.g. Discriminant) performed reasonably well in terms of achieving balanced overall classification accuracies of above chance predictions. Integrated prediction models offer the advantage of counterbalancing relatively poor performance of some classification methods with good performance of others, but in doing so could not out-perform all individual classification methods considered. In general, we found that the outcome of which method performed best depended largely on the group classification accuracy considered, as well as to some extent on the choice of the discriminatory variables. Concerning the use of raw or country-adjusted data, we found no clear effect on the prediction ability of the classification methods.
3
Arben, Mustafa. "Banking sector competition and its impact on banks' risk-taking and interest margins in the Central and East European countries." Thesis, Staffordshire University, 2014. http://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/2039/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis provides empirical evidence on the degree of banking sector competition in the Central and East European (CEE) countries and the impact of competition on banks’ risktaking and interest margins. The thesis uses data on around 300 banks from 17 CEE countries for the period 1999-2009, and employs a variety of estimation methodologies. The first objective of the thesis is to measure the degree of banking sector competition in CEE countries. Using the Panzar-Rosse approach, we found that the banking sectors of the CEE countries have been characterized by monopoly behaviour. By distinguishing between the non-EU and EU countries of the region, we found that banks operating in the non-EU countries faced a lower degree of competition compared to banks operating in the EU members of the region. The separate estimation for Kosovo indicated that the competitive behaviour of banks operating in this country was consistent with monopolistic competition. The second objective of the thesis is to estimate the impact of banking sector competition on the degree of banks’ risk-taking. Using country-level Panzar-Rosse H-statistic estimates as a measure of competition, for the overall sample, we found that competition enhances the quality of the loan portfolio, thus providing evidence against the mainstream view on the trade-off between competition and stability. However, for the non-EU countries of our sample the impact of competition on banks’ risk-taking appeared positive, which implies that more effective authorities are needed in these countries to oversee the banks’ behaviour when competitive pressures increase. The third objective of the thesis is to estimate the impact of banking sector competition on banks’ interest margins. The results suggest that competition had a negative impact on net interest margins. The impact of competition in reducing the net interest margins was stronger in the non-EU countries compared to the EU countries of the sample. Overall, the results suggest that the banking sectors of the CEE countries are characterized by low levels of competition, implying higher risk and larger interest margin.
4
Henriksson, Daniel, and Anna Ottosson. "Does competition in the EU banking market lead to lower interest margins? : A panel data analysis on how market competition affects banks interest margin across EU countries." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Nationalekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-45817.
Full textAbstract:
This study analyses the bank market competition and bank interest margins in the European Union member countries banking sector during the period 2007–2019, using panel data analysis and aggregated data for each country ́s banking sector. Our starting point is the theory about market structure and two structural indexes are used as proxies of the degree of market competition. The methodology is based on the model developed by Ho and Saunders (1981), where the bank is viewed as a risk averse dealer amongst borrowers and lenders. This model has later been extended to fit analyses on nationally aggregated levels, which is appropriate in this study. The result show that bank concentration is not statistically significant in explaining variability of interest margin in the EU banking sectors. Instead, the statistically significant determinants of interest margins are more bank specific variables, such as average operating cost and credit risk. Although this study cannot claim economic significance, it provides information that economic policies should be designed to lower average operating cost rather than market competition, in order to lower interest margin.I denna studie analyserar vi konkurrensen på bankmarknaden och bankernas räntemarginaler i Europeiska unionens medlemsländers banksektor under perioden 2007–2019, genom paneldataanalys och aggregerad data för varje lands banksektor. Vår utgångspunkt är teorin om marknadsstruktur och vi använder två strukturella mått för att mäta konkurrens på marknaden. Metoden är baserad på den modell som Ho and Saunders (1981) utformade, där banken ses som en riskavert förmedlare mellan låntagare och långivare. Modellen har sedan utökats till att lämpa sig för analyser på en nationellt aggregerad nivå, vilket är passande för denna studie. Resultatet visar att konkurrens på bankmarknaden inte på ett statistiskt signifikant sätt förklarar variabilitet i räntemarginalen. Istället visar resultatet att de statistiskt signifikanta faktorerna för räntemarginalen är mer bankspecifika variabler, såsom genomsnittlig operationell kostnad och kreditrisk. Trots att denna studie inte kan påvisa ekonomisk signifikans, ger den information om att ekonomiska policys bör utformas för att sänka den genomsnittliga operationella kostnaden snarare än att öka marknadskonkurrens, för att minska räntemarginalen.
5
Li, Kwan-leung, and 李君樑. "The European currency crisis: a replay of strains on bretton woods system." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1995. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31954522.
Full text
6
Nkodia, Kibo Mathat. "Les relations entre le trésor public francais et les banques centrales de la zone franc." Thesis, Paris 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA020004.
Full textAbstract:
Les rapports entre le Trésor français et les banques centrales africaines de la zone franc sont fondés sur la garantie de convertibilité externe que la France accorde aux francs CFA. De la sorte, le Trésor français convertit de manière illimitée les francs CFA en euro et en d’autres monnaies. Par ailleurs, la BCEAO et la BEAC sont protégées contre le risque d’épuisement des réserves de change car, elles peuvent puiser théoriquement de façon illimitée en cas de rupture de changes sur les réserves françaises. La mise en oeuvre de cette solidarité repose sur un mécanisme particulier appelé : comptes d’opérations. Hérité de la période coloniale, ce principe oblige les instituts d’émission africains en vertu des accords de coopération monétaire signés avec la France au lendemain des indépendances et rénovés en 1972 et 1973, à déposer 65 % de leurs réserves de change sur ces comptes. Cette quotité a été ramenée depuis la réforme de 2005 à 50%. Le Trésor français verse des intérêts à ces comptes lorsqu’ils sont créditeurs alors qu’il prélève des intérêts en cas de débit. Cette coopération vise deux objectifs principaux : la solidarité monétaire et le développement économique par le biais d’une solidarité monétaire sécurisée. Cette coopération a donné naissance à des institutions qui oeuvrent en vue d’atteindre ces objectifs. Lors de l’adoption de l’euro à l’échelle européenne en 1999, la France a pu obtenir de ses partenaires européens la reconnaissance de la nature budgétaire des accords qui la lient à ses anciennes possessions d’Afrique pour continuer à garantir les francs CFA. Cette coopération comporte cependant beaucoup d’inconvénients qui incitent au dépassement du cadre actuelThe monetary agreements of France and the CFA franc zone are based on the permanent free convertibility of the CFA. In this case, the French Treasury supports the free convertibility of the CFA franc into Euros and other currencies with a fixed change rate. The BCEAO and the BEAC accordingly cannot suffer from the lack of changes risk for, they are both guaranteed by France. Such a parity and interdependence principles inherited from the colonial period was renewed in the 1960's up to 2005 reforms. The main goals of this cooperation are the economical development and monetary solidarity safety. Some institutions have been created in order to achieve those goals. In anticipation of the coming of the Euro in 1999, the competent French authorities convinced the European Union to maintain the monetary agreements France has with the African countries using the CFA currency. Nevertheless, such agreements compound some shortcomings which require new ideas
7
SCHULZ, Daniel F. "Too little, too late? : how central bankers' beliefs influence what they do." Doctoral thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/46685.
Full textAbstract:
Defence date: 6 June 2017Examining Board: Professor Sven Steinmo, European University Institute (Supervisor); Professor Mark Blyth, Brown University; Professor Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Professor Leonard Seabrooke, Copenhagen Business School
For all its powers, we know little about how the European Central Bank (ECB) makes its decisions and why. In light of its ever-increasing importance in European governance and the criticism this has attracted, this is particularly regrettable. Often a welcome scapegoat, the ECB has been accused of doing first too little, then too late. Compared to other major central banks, the ECB has indeed long been a laggard – regarding both conventional interest rate policies and unconventional balance sheet operations. Why? I argue that central bankers’ policy experiments after the financial crisis are a prime example of policymaking under conditions of Knightian uncertainty. Faced with an unprecedented situation, central bankers were unable to draw on historical experience and had to resort to their beliefs about how the economy works instead. Based on a survey among 422 central bank economists, I quantify these different ways of thinking. My survey data shows a) that certain beliefs matter for policy preferences and b) that both are unevenly distributed among central banks. In particular, the ECB leans more towards orthodox beliefs and hawkish inflation preferences than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It is considerably more conservative. Within the Eurosystem, different national central banks are clustered regarding both beliefs and preferences, revealing a dividing line in economic philosophy between core and periphery. This suggests that the frequently surfacing conflicts inside the ECB’s Governing Council reflect a battle of ideas rather than a conflict of interests between creditor and debtor states. Proponents of activist monetary policy at the ECB had to overcome enormous resistance from within before they could follow the examples set by others. I argue that this is why the ECB first did too little to support the economy, and only changed its orthodox stance very late.
8
BUSCA, Alessandro. "A legal and economic assessment of the EMU’s common principles and alternative routes of budget constraints." Doctoral thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/57525.
Full textAbstract:
Defence date: 20 July 2018Examining Board: Professor Stefan Grundmann, European University Institute; Professor Klaus Heine, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Professor Giorgio Monti, European University Institute; Professor Pietro Sirena, Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi
In the past 20 years, the European integration process has been mostly successful at establishing a single European market. However, no such success can be attributed to the establishment of an economic and monetary union. The recent financial and sovereign debt crisis dramatically exposed all the flaws and weaknesses of this ambitious project, which led the European Union into a deep economic and political crisis. In this context, the task of scholars and academics should be to explore new effective and efficient alternative in order to strengthen and create “a more perfect union”. On these premises and considerations, the present research will analyze the current legal framework of the European Monetary Union in order to assess and understand its success, and explore possible alternative institutional designs which could be more effective in achieving its objectives and, at the same time, be potentially more efficient and legittimate. More in details, after examining in the first chapter, the origin and evolution of the economic and monetary integration from its very foundation, and, in the second chapter, the current legal structure of the economic union; the last and third chapter represents the normative claim of thesis. In an attempt to reconcile both law and economics, this normative part will involve a balancing exercise between the economic concepts of effectiveness and efficiency, and the legal concepts of legitimacy. The analysis will first understand and assess the effectiveness of the present governance structure. We will argue that the fundamental problem of the present governance structure is given by its many internal inconsistencies. On these premises, we will claim that it is possible to design an alternative regime which could potentially solve such issues and thus be more effective. The resulting three different alternative regimes will then be compared and evaluated in terms of their efficiency, according to the new institutional economics approach. The purpose of the efficiency evaluation is not to identify the single most efficient system of governance, but rather to understand the distinctive strenghts and weaknesses of the various alternatives in comparison with the current structure. Ultimately, the chapter will also evaluate the current EMU structure under a legitimacy standpoint. In particular, it will try to assess and understand whether these potentially more effective and efficient alternative arrangements would also improve the EMU under a legitimacy standpoint.
9
DICKHAUS, Monika. "Zwischen Europa und der Welt :Die internationale Waehrungspolitik der Deutschen Zentralbank 1949-1958." Doctoral thesis, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/5745.
Full textAbstract:
Defence date: 20 March 1995Examining board: Prof. Dr. Werner Abelshauser, Bielefeld (Doktovater) ; Prof. Dr. Richard T. Griffiths, Florenz ; Prof. Dr. Gerd Hardach, Marburg ; Prof. Dr. Peter Hertner, Florenz ; Prof. Dr. Alan S. Milward, London
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017
10
CHIRICO, Alessandra. "Monetary sovereignty and the ESCB : towards a multilayered approach to the Euro-sovereignty game in the EMU." Doctoral thesis, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/4597.
Full textAbstract:
Defence date: 25 October 2004Examining board: Prof. Neil Walker, EUI (co-supervisor) ; Prof. Jean-Victor Louis, ULB, Brussels/EUI (supervisor) ; Dr Christos Hadjiemmanuil, LSE London ; Dr Chiara Zilioli, Deputy General Counsel, Head of Institutional Law Division, DG-Legal Service of the ECB, Frankfurt
First made available online on 24 September 2013.
This dissertation provides a doctrinal and “applied” overview of the main developments in the post-Maastricht transfer of monetary sovereignty from the member states to supranational institutions. In so doing, it concentrates on three areas of particular interest, complexity and tension between different forces. One area is simply the configuration of supranational institutions involved and their relationship, and in particular the tensions among the independent ECB, the national dimension of the broader ESCB and the state-dominated Ecofin Council. A second area concerns the well-known tension between monetary and broader economic union – and in particular the asymmetry between the significantly centralized monetary institutions and the retention of fiscal authority at national level. A third area concerns the internal and external dimension of monetary authority (exchange rates) from broader macro-economic consideration, and, reflecting this, the continuing absence of a definitive legal and institutional resolution of the extent of external monetary sovereignty transferred to central EU institutions. Here there emerges an analysis of the framework of good governance for the new multilayered system of monetary union. The key question addressed by the author of this study is whether the shift in monetary authority does or should involve a reconceptualization of the question of where sovereignty lies in Europe, both over monetary matters specifically or more generally.
Books on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Quaglia, Lucia. Central banking governance in the European Union: A comparative analysis. New York, NY: Routledge, 2007.
Find full text
2
1973-, Quaglia Lucia, ed. European economic governance and policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010.
Find full text
3
Ibán, Roberto González. El Banco Central Europeo y la política monetaria común: El banco que gobernará Europa. Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 1999.
Find full text
4
Euro crash: The exit route from monetary failure in Europe. 2nd ed. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
Find full text
5
Central banking systems compared: The ECB, the pre-euro Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve System. New York: Routledge, 2003.
Find full text
6
service), SpringerLink (Online, ed. Dynamic Policy Interactions in a Monetary Union. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2011.
Find full text
7
1948-, Bruni Franco, Fair Donald E, O'Brien Richard 1950-, Allen Bill 1949-, and Société universitaire européenne de recherches financières., eds. Risk management in volatile financial markets. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
Find full text
8
1969-, Franzese Robert J., Mooslechner Peter, and Schürz Martin, eds. Institutional conflicts and complementarities: Monetary policy and wage bargaining institutions in EMU. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004.
Find full text
9
1949-, Polouček Stanislav, ed. Reforming the financial sector in Central European countries. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.
Find full text
10
A, Favero Carlo, and Centre for Economic Policy Research (Great Britain), eds. One money, many countries. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2000.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Mérő, Katalin. "The Banking Union and the Central and Eastern European countries." In The Political Economy of the Eurozone in Central and Eastern Europe, 116–36. London: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429261411-8.
Full text
2
Ellul, Andrew. "The Role of Independence in the European System of Central Banks: A Sufficient Condition for a Robust European Monetary Union?" In Strategic Challenges in European Banking, 276–92. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230377363_13.
Full text
3
Bindseil, Ulrich, and Alessio Fotia. "International Monetary Frameworks." In Introduction to Central Banking, 101–21. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70884-9_7.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractIn this chapter we turn to representing flows of funds in alternative international monetary frameworks, and what global liquidity these different frameworks provide. We first recall some arguments in favour of and against fixed exchange rate systems. We then introduce two international monetary arrangements of the past which imply fixed exchange rates, namely the gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, and recall why both eventually failed. We then turn to three international monetary frameworks in the context of the current paper standard, i.e. fixed exchange rate systems, flexible exchange rate systems, and the European monetary union. We explain the role of an international lender of last resort and related solutions, and how these allow for more leeway in running fixed exchange rate systems. We also show how banks and central bank balance sheets are affected by international flows of funds and the balance of payments. Finally, we briefly review recent developments of foreign currency reserves, being the key central bank balance sheet position in this context.
4
Jovanić, Tatjana. "The impact of European economic governance and EU accession negotiations on the central banks in candidate countries." In The Political Economy of Central Banking in Emerging Economies, 93–114. 1 Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2020. | Series: Routledge critical studies in finance and stability: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780367823054-8.
Full text
5
Hotori, Eiji, Mikael Wendschlag, and Thibaud Giddey. "Germany: Financial Crises and Formalization of Banking Supervision." In Formalization of Banking Supervision, 77–86. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6783-1_5.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractIn Germany, the banking supervision formalized as a consequence of the severe banking crises of the early 1930s, just as in many other countries on the European continent. The formalization process was initiated with the decisions to temporarily take over some of the large commercial banks that faced default in the banking crisis in 1931. Due to the extended loans and direct ownership stakes, the government established a board to look after its interests. The “temporary” measures were made permanent by the Nazi-government as one of several institutional and organizational means to have banks accommodate the economic policies of the regime. All three elements of banking supervision formalization (regulation, a supervisor, and supervision) were in place by the mid-1930s. However, given the very high level of control over the banks at the time, it is misleading to date the emergence of formal banking supervision to this time. During the occupation years, the banking supervision (in West-Germany) was organized at the state-level, similar to the US system. We date the full formalization after the Second World War when the German central government's control over the banking sector ended.
6
Kasekende, Louis A. "East African Monetary Union." In 50 Years of Central Banking in Kenya, 175–94. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198851820.003.0011.
Full textAbstract:
This chapter highlights progress with the East Africa Monetary Union (EAMU) and the implications for the future of central banking in the Eastern African region. In 2013, East African countries committed to move to a monetary union by 2024. However, monetary unions offer benefits as well as challenges, given the experience in European Monetary Union. The chapter highlights four main important issues: the imperative of extensive economic integration in order to reap benefits from EAMU; the need for strong, enforceable, but feasible rules to ensure the fiscal sustainability of each partner state, given that once EAMU is established, they will no longer have the option of financing their public debt from their own central banks; the mechanism for alignment of the exchange rates in the period prior to the introduction of the common currency; and how to mitigate the adverse impact of asymmetric macroeconomic shocks within the EAC.
7
Hinarejos, Alicia. "The Legality Of Responses To The Crisis." In The EU Law of Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198793748.003.0050.
Full textAbstract:
The euro area crisis required a swift and multi-faceted response. The different facets of this response have already been discussed in this volume: first, a quick intervention was necessary in order to stabilize the situation of euro countries. To this end, several loan facilities were created, and the European Central Bank (ECB) also played an important role in calming down the markets. Second, various measures were adopted in order to improve Member States’ budgetary surveillance and economic coordination. Third, to improve financial regulation and oversight, the European Union (EU) has undertaken important reforms aimed at the creation of a stronger financial framework, and a so-called ‘banking union’ for the euro area.
8
Branca, Federica, Ixart Miquel-Flores, and Francesco Paolo Mongelli. "Evolution of Central Banking." In 50 Years of Central Banking in Kenya, 68–85. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198851820.003.0005.
Full textAbstract:
This chapter provides some observations regarding the evolution of central banking. It is noted that the practice of monetary policy and the scope of central banks have changed over time. The chapter reflects on the path to East African Economic and Monetary Union (EA-EMU). First, how does East Africa stand in terms of economic and financial convergence? Second, what are the milestones of central banking that all central banks of the EA-EMU should master? Third, which monetary lessons could the euro area offer? Fourth, what worked, and has not, in the euro area, what is being fixed? It is noted that East African countries have differences in income per capita, exchange rate volatility, domestic prices, and fiscal discipline. To support sustainable convergence, they should align their monetary policy frameworks and have solid fiscal arrangement.
9
Mertens, Daniel. "A German Model? KfW, Field Dynamics, and the Europeanization of “Promotional” Banking." In The Reinvention of Development Banking in the European Union, 117–43. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198859703.003.0005.
Full textAbstract:
This chapter examines the evolution of Germany’s Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) within the EU. Presenting KfW as a key pillar of the German economic model that depends on export-led growth, the chapter traces the imprint that Europe’s largest NDB has left on the European field. Beginning in the 1990s, when the bank counseled and funded development banks in 14 transition countries in CEE countries, KfW became the first incumbent of the emerging field. Adapting itself to the incentives and constraints stemming from European integration during the 2000s, it continues to shape the field today with both the assertiveness of its financial firepower and business model, and the rationale of the reluctant but embedded hegemon that Germany is in the European Union.
10
Mizsei, Kalman. "LESSONS FROM BAD LOAN MANAGEMENT IN THE EAST CENTRAL EUROPEAN ECONOMIC TRANSITION FOR THE SECOND WAVE REFORM COUNTRIES." In Banking Reform in Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 58–88. Central European University Press, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.7829/j.ctv280b7nn.8.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Polouček, Stanislav. "Credit Behaviour of Banks in the European Union in the Wake of Global Economic Crisis." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00221.
Full textAbstract:
Recent financial crises hit many countries. The impact on Visegrad countries in credit area was not damaging. The main reason was stability and soundness of financial (banking) sectors in these countries and an adequate response of central banks as well as flexible management of commercial banks. Commercial banks, usually daughter companies of western banks, used above all domestic deposits for financing credits. This played a key role in credit area and helped to keep the financial system stable. It is important to underpin that responses to the crisis have been rather heterogeneous in central European countries and there are quite big disparities among Visegrad countries, too. In the paper developments and responses of the commercial banks to the crisis and their stability have been discussed on the basis of deposits, loans of monetary financial institutions to the non-financial sector, households, governments, lending for house purchase and credit for consumption in several EU countries. Net position of banks vis-á-vis foreign banks is taken into account, too.
2
Pyka, Anna, and Aleksandra Nocoń. "Polish versus European banking sector − characteristics, consolidation, ownership changes." In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.032.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – the main aim of the study is an assessment of the banking sector in Poland, including the size of the sector, banking institutions forming the sector and consolidation processes taking place in the sector against the background of banking sectors in other countries. The paper also indicates ownership changes as a consequence of consolidation processes in the banking sectors after the global financial crisis of 2008−2012. Research methodology – the following research methods were used: cause and effect analysis, comparative analysis, case studies, observation method, secondary data analysis, and synthesis method. Findings – the research allowed to find out that the banking sector in Poland is growing at a rate significantly exceeding the growth rate in other European countries. However, rapid development does not mean a radical increase in the importance of this sector in Europe. Concentration ratios of the Polish banking sector show continuous but slight increases, although their level is still quite low compared to other European Union countries. Moreover, in Poland, a decreasing number of banks, observed in recent years, reduces a share of foreign investors in the structure of the sector. This means a high activity of domestic investors in taking over bank capital. Research limitations – the main research limitation is that the study mainly focuses on changes as well as comparative analysis of the concentration ratio (CR5). While further research should be expanded by more measures to compare ownership structure and the profitability of Polish and the European Unionʼs banking sectors. Practical implications – the results might be useful for central banks and supervisory authorities when it comes to their role in changes in the ownership structure of banking sectors. Originality/Value – the main value of the article is the in-depth analysis of the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector in the background of the European ones
3
Đuranović, Gordana, and Sanja Filipović. "THE IMPACT OF PROBLEMATIC LOANS ON THE BANKING COMPETITIVENESS – case study of OTP group." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2022.0009.
Full textAbstract:
Credit risk as a risk in basic, traditional, and most important banking business – the bank loan, is one of the biggest financial risks, considering that borrowers (debtors) defaults, directly affect the bank’s financial result and capital, and thus its competitiveness in the market. The impact of problematic loans on banking operations will be discussed for 2019-2021 on the example of OTP banking Group operating in 11 countries, to find out if there is a relation between NPL volume and the banking competitiveness. A comparative analysis method has been applied, comparing the profit, the NPL rate and the market position within the banking sector of the country to which each Group member belongs. Results has shown that the reduction in the volume of non-performing loans affected the increase in the competitiveness of banks, as well as that member banks located in European Union countries have a lower percentage of non-performing loans in relation to the member banks of the group operating in countries outside the European Union. The reduction of the percentage of bad loans is certainly in harmonization with the regulations of the European Union, but also in their better implementation.
4
Gündoğdu Odabaşıoğlu, Fatma. "An Assessment on Financial Markets: European Union Member Country Hungary and Candidate Country Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01700.
Full textAbstract:
With the end of cold war, Central and Eastern European countries who had not participated in the integration of Europe, have applied to become members of European Union. Hungary, a Central European country; applied for membership on December 16, 1991, started full membership negotiations in 1998 and joined the Union on May 1, 2004. Turkey on the other hand, was granted candidacy status during Helsinki European Council Summit Meeting of December 1999, after a 40 years long relationship that started with Turkey’s application to join European Economic Community on July 31, 1959. Negotiations for full membership of Turkey were finally started on October 3, 2005 and country entered a new era to adapt EU Acquis.
Within this context, this study aims to compare financial markets of EU member state Hungary and candidate state Turkey for the period of 1998 - 2015; to evaluate risks and fragilities related to financial development levels and stability of banking sectors for both countries based on generally accepted financial indicators.
In conclusion; Hungary was observed to have significantly less developed capital market compared Turkey over the years, despite having similar ratios in financial deepening during recent years. Findings of this assessment point out an increasing credit risk for banking sector of Hungary, enhanced by the economic crisis of 2008. In comparison, credit risk in banking sector of Turkey has been decreasing over the years. High credit/deposit ratio, is a sign of degradation and can be observed in Hungary's balance sheets, raised for Turkey as well.
5
Gündoğdu Odabaşıoğlu, Fatma. "Path to the Common Monetary Authority: An Assessment on Banking Sector of the Eurasian Economic Union Countries during the Economic Integration Proces." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01269.
Full textAbstract:
Monetary union is one of the advanced stages of international economic integration and involves shared monetary and exchange rate policies that are executed collectively across union members. This common policy warrants price stability and requires a common supranational monetary authority. Existence of an established banking sector is crucial for effective execution of policy decisions taken by said monetary authorities. Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is officially established on January 1st of 2015 and is an example for a regional economic integration. Aim of the Union, which is comprised of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Republic of Armenia; is to increase collaboration among economies, to improve the living standards of the participating nations and to promote stable development.
This study is based on assessment banking industries of member countries, working towards common monetary authority during the transition to EAEU economic integration between years 1995 and 2014. Data acquired from World Bank and member countries' central banks is used to determine the capabilities and limitations of partaking economies based on generally accepted financial strength indicators.
In conclusion; Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan are observed to be the principal EAEU members due to their advanced and strong banking industries. Increasing fragilities over the years, amplified also by developments in global markets, are evident in member countries; especially in Belarus and Armenia. Significance of achieving price stability in founding country Russian Federation is emphasized for successfully establishing a common monetary authority.
6
Lleshaj, Llesh. "Volatility Estimation of Euribor and Equilibrium Forecasting." In 7th International Scientific Conference ERAZ - Knowledge Based Sustainable Development. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2021.171.
Full textAbstract:
Euribor rates (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) rates are considered to be the most important reference rates in the European money market. The interest rates do provide the basis for the price and interest rates of all kinds of financial products like interest rate swaps, interest rate futures, saving accounts and mortgages. Since September 2014, this index has performed with negative rates. In recent years, several European central banks have imposed negative interest rates on commercial banks, as the only way to stimulate their nations’ economies. Under these circumstances, the purpose of this study is to estimate the gap of the negative rates which are still increasing constantly. This fact puts in question the financial stability in many countries and the effect of monetary policy on stimulating economic growth around European countries. According to the daily data 2016 - 2021, this study has analyzed the volatility of the Euribor index related to efficient market hypothesis and volatility clustering. Applying advanced volatility econometric methods, GARCH volatility models are derived and the long-run equilibrium is predicted. Practical Implications are related to the empirical impacts that ought to be taken into consideration by the banking sector and other financial institutions to make decisions with the Euribor index.
Reports on the topic "Banks and banking, Central – European Union countries"
1
Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
Full textAbstract:
In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias