Academic literature on the topic 'Banking industry'

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Journal articles on the topic "Banking industry"

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KAR, ANDREAS. "Retail Banking in the Contemporary Financial Environment." JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH 9, no. 1 (October 12, 2015): 1792–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.24297/jssr.v9i1.3776.

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Which challenges does the retail banking industry face nowadays? Walking on the path of M. Porters theories, the author tries to open a window in the retail bankings present and future, the challenges the industry faces, the main forces that shape the competition, the strategies deployed in order to create a competitive advantage for the industry players, and a short prognosis for the industrys future
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Mashoof, Hedieh, and Fataneh Alizadeh Meshkani. "Strategic positioning in banking industry: Evidence from banking industry." Management Science Letters 4, no. 8 (2014): 1715–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2014.7.012.

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Moshirian, Fariborz, and Qiongbing Wu. "Banking industry volatility and banking crises." Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 19, no. 2 (April 2009): 351–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2008.02.002.

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Goyal, Akhil, and Dr Sudhinder Singh Chowhan. "Indian Banking Industry- Customer Satisfaction." Indian Journal of Applied Research 3, no. 1 (October 1, 2011): 95–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/2249555x/jan2013/38.

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A. SHARMILA, A. SHARMILA. "CRM in the Banking Industry." International Journal of Scientific Research 3, no. 4 (June 1, 2012): 23–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22778179/apr2014/235.

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G.V. Kori, G. V. Kori, and Basavaraj Huggi. "Customer Relationship Management” - In Banking Industry." Indian Journal of Applied Research 1, no. 7 (October 1, 2011): 34–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/2249555x/apr2012/11.

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Muthu, Dr K. Marutha, and T. A. Tamilselvi T. A.Tamilselvi. "Financial Inclusion - Role Of Banking Industry." Indian Journal of Applied Research 1, no. 7 (October 1, 2011): 166–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/2249555x/apr2012/55.

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Garg, Dr Ajay Kumar. "Banking Industry and Customer Relationship Management." Indian Journal of Applied Research 3, no. 8 (October 1, 2011): 432–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/2249555x/aug2013/139.

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Dr.C.BALAJI, Dr C. BALAJI. "Role of Information Technologyin Banking Industry." Global Journal For Research Analysis 3, no. 8 (June 15, 2012): 21–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22778160/august2014/7.

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Tiwary, Bind Kumar. "Indian Banking Industry: Competition And Opportunities." International Journal of Scientific Research 1, no. 3 (June 1, 2012): 65–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22778179/aug2012/22.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Banking industry"

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Hazarika, Sanjay Iswar. "Europe 1992 and the banking industry." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/57935.

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Walker, Jonathan Lamont. "Essays on the commercial banking industry." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/107035.

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Botha, Kooi. "The banking industry – strategy reporting trends." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/21383.

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Throughout the years, organisations were known for only reporting on their financial position, but due to stakeholders becoming more informed about the sustainability crisis, organisations realised the importance of moving away from only reporting on financial information and are now also including information about the impact of their activities on the society and environment in which they operate in sustainability reports. King II stipulated that organisations should produce a sustainability report during their reporting period, while King III recommends integrated reporting. Integrated reporting suggests that both the annual and sustainability report should be published at the same time. As a result, King III places a lot of emphasis on the alignment risk, performance, strategy and sustainability. This allows the integrated report to supply all stakeholders with forward looking information, as well as strategic direction. The purpose for this research is to evaluate the extent to which organisation in the banking industry disclose information about their strategy. Information were gathered and analysed to determine where aspects of strategy are disclosed at an above average to excellent level or whether strategy disclosure were lacking or below average. This study specifically focussed on information disclosed in the 2010 annual and sustainability reports of organisations in the banking industry such as Absa, Investec, Nedbank, Standard Bank and FirstRand. The study concluded that the level of disclosure for strategic information in annual and sustainability reports for organisations in the banking industry, is average at 53 percent.
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Ayogu, Melvin Damian. "Strategic competition in the banking industry." The Ohio State University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1277837048.

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Ayogu, Melvin D. "Strategic competition in the banking industry /." The Ohio State University, 1989. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487599963593017.

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Pereira, João André Calviño Marques. "Regulation issues in the banking industry." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/8216.

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Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-05-26T13:10:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 71070100742.pdf: 1357936 bytes, checksum: 317ce99e12150f05d086d02057a7e979 (MD5)
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This dissertation aims to examine the factors that drive the bank decision process of capital/investment structure and to evaluate the effectiveness of regulatory intervention in Brazil. This study is divided into three chapters. The first chapter presents, in a systematic fashion, the theoretical and empirical literature to explain the financing and investment decisions of a heavily regulated banking firm. It also describes the evolution of international standards of prudential capital regulation, since the publication of the first Basel Accord until the initial steps of Basel III, and the regulatory scenario in Brazil. The second chapter, through a dynamic model of the trade-off theory, analyzes the determinants of Brazilian banks‟ capital buffer between 2001 and 2009, suggesting that: (i) regulatory capital requirements and adjustment costs may influence banks decisions; (ii) supervisory authority evaluations may impact capital buffers; (iii) market discipline may not being effective in improving bank solvency; and (iv) there is a negative relationship between the buffer and business cycle, which may represent a pro-cyclical bank’s capital management. Finally, the third chapter uses supervisory authority ratings (CAMEL) to provide evidences that the supervisory and regulatory pressures induce banks in Brazil to undertake downwards short term adjustments in leverage and also in portfolio risks.
Esta tese tem por objetivo examinar os fatores que direcionam o processo decisório de estrutura de capital/investimento do banco e avaliar a efetividade da intervenção regulatória no Brasil. O trabalho está divido em três capítulos. No primeiro capítulo, apresenta-se, de forma sistematizada, arcabouço teórico e evidências empíricas na literatura para explicar o comportamento da firma bancária, fortemente regulada, em suas decisões de financiamento e investimento. Além disso, descreve-se a evolução dos padrões internacionais de regulação prudencial de capital, desde a publicação do primeiro Acordo de Basiléia até as medidas iniciais de Basiléia III, apresentando também o contexto normativo no Brasil. No segundo capítulo, por meio de modelo dinâmico da teoria de trade-off, analisam-se os determinantes do buffer de capital dos bancos brasileiros entre 2001 e 2009. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) o requerimento regulatório de capital e os custos de ajustes de capital influenciam nas decisões dos bancos; (ii) as avaliações da autoridade de supervisão bancária impacta os colchões de capital; (iii) a disciplina de mercado pode não ser efetiva em aumentar a solvência dos bancos; e (iv) existe uma relação negativa entre o colchão de capital e o ciclo de negócios que pode representar uma gestão procíclica de capital dos bancos. Por fim, no terceiro capítulo, utiliza-se metodologia proprietária dos escores das instituições conferidos pela autoridade supervisora (CAMEL), para apresentar evidências de que as pressões regulatória e de supervisão no Brasil induzem os bancos a realizarem ajustes de curto prazo relativamente menores na alavancagem e, principalmente, no risco do portfólio.
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Chan, Wing Han. "Management information systems in Macau banking industry." Thesis, University of Macau, 1996. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636691.

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Lammers, Markus. "Sourcing decision making in the banking industry." Berlin Pro Business, 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2675692&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.

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Taniai, Tatsuya 1966. "IT investment allocation in Japanese banking industry." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17004.

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Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 108-110).
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
In this study, we investigate and discuss IT investment and related issues in the Japanese banking industry. And we insist that banks should take account of technology trend as one of heavy IT users and switch long-term-strategy and IT-migration-strategy appropriately in order to make the best of IT. First of all, we show some back grounds of Japanese banking industry and IT revolution. Next, we show three case studies of a Japanese bank. We will find that, over the last ten years, Japanese banks have been struggling with deregulation, the IT revolution and the long resection of the Japanese economy. These external changes have made corporate strategies and traditional information systems are obsolete and inefficient. After then, we analyze IT investment allocation issues in the banking industry. As summary of our analysis, we show some key success factors and recommendation to a Japanese bank. Finally, Japanese banks should always consider Long-Term Strategy with a long-time viewpoint; during the period of IT migration, they should find a path in which they should follow based on IT Migration Strategy.
by Tatsuya Taniai.
S.M.M.O.T.
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Lou, Xinchen Sofia. "Viability of traditional banking services: evidence from the regional level U.S. banking industry." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 1996. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1342198972.

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Books on the topic "Banking industry"

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(Firm), Divine. RivalEye: Banking industry. [Chicago, Ill.]: Divine, 2002.

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McGladrey Hendrickson & Pullen., ed. Banking industry manual. [U.S.]: McGladrey Hendrickson & Pullen, 1987.

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Blasi, Ronald W. The banking industry. Edited by Wheeler Charles W and Lerner Herbert J. 1938-. Chicago, Ill. (4025 W. Peterson Ave., Chicago 60646): Commerce Clearing House, 1988.

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Biomedical, Business International Inc. The blood banking industry. 2nd ed. Tustin, CA (17722 Irvine Blvd., Suite 3, Tustin 92680): Biomedical Business International, 1986.

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Biomedical, International Inc. The blood banking industry. 3rd ed. Tustin, CA, USA (17722 Irvine Blvd., Tustin 92680): Biomedical Business International, 1987.

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Zainudin, Rozaimah, Chan Sok-Gee, and Aidil Rizal Shahrin. The Malaysian Banking Industry. First Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2019. | Series: Routledge focus on economics and finance: Routledge, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351000512.

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Sumathy, M. Banking industry in India. New Delhi: Regal Publications, 2011.

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Horst, Löchel, ed. China's changing banking industry. Frankfurt: Frankfurt School Verlag, 2012.

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Gundlach, Matthias, and Frank Lehrbass, eds. CreditRisk+ in the Banking Industry. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-06427-6.

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Gundlach, Matthias. CreditRisk+ in the Banking Industry. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004.

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Book chapters on the topic "Banking industry"

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Sironi, Andrea, and Markus Venzin. "Banking Industry." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, 84–88. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-00772-8_618.

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Focarelli, Dario, and Alberto Franco Pozzolo. "banking industry." In Banking Crises, 25–27. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137553799_4.

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Focarelli, Dario, and Alberto Franco Pozzolo. "Banking Industry." In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 691–93. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2312.

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Focarelli, Dario, and Alberto Franco Pozzolo. "Banking Industry." In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 1–3. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2312-1.

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Sironi, Andrea, and Markus Venzin. "Banking Industry." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, 1–5. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-94848-2_618-1.

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Espinoza-Loayza, Viviana, Eulalia-Elizabeth Salas-Tenesaca, and Aurora Samaniego-Namicela. "Banking Industry Innovation." In Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 463–76. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91860-0_28.

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Altunbaş, Yener, Alper Kara, and Özlem Olgu. "Trends in the Banking Industry." In Turkish Banking, 40–68. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230582064_3.

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Orhan, Zeyneb Hafsa. "Suggestions for Banking Business Models of Islamic Banking." In The Islamic Finance Industry, 44–64. London: Routledge, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003377283-4.

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Newton, Alex. "Banking and finance industry." In The Business of Human Rights, 141–49. 1 Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2019.: Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351131193-21.

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Zainudin, Rozaimah, and Chan Sok-Gee. "The Malaysian banking industry." In The Malaysian Banking Industry, 1–5. First Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2019. | Series: Routledge focus on economics and finance: Routledge, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351000512-1.

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Conference papers on the topic "Banking industry"

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de Abreu Faria, Fernando, Antonio Carlos Gastaud Macada, and Kuldeep Kumar. "Information governance in the banking industry." In 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS 2013). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/hicss.2013.270.

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Mirković, Vladimir, Jelena Lukić, and Vesna Martin. "Reshaping Banking Industry Through Digital Transformation." In FINIZ 2019. Belgrade, Serbia: Singidunum University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15308/finiz-2019-31-36.

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Tamara, Dewi, Nadia Heraini, and Dimas Ivaldi. "Capital Structure in Indonesian Banking Industry." In 3rd African International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management. Michigan, USA: IEOM Society International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.46254/af03.20220492.

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Siek, Michael, and Luin Yatnalaksita Parasdyayatma Rukma. "Impact Analysis of Digital Banking Applications on Disrupting Traditional Banking Industry." In 2022 International Conference on Information Management and Technology (ICIMTech). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icimtech55957.2022.9915184.

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"DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE SPACE INDUSTRY." In Current Issue of Law in the Banking Sphere. Samara State Economic University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.46554/banking.forum-10.2019-149/153.

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Hayati, Nur, and Dede Suryana. "Tows Analysis To Improve Competitivenes At West Java Batik Industry." In International Conference on Economics and Banking. Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/iceb-15.2015.2.

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Wijaya, Handriyanto, Jamal Wiwoho, and Emmy Latifah. "ASEAN Banking Integration and Its Impacts to the Banking Industry in Indonesia." In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Globalization of Law and Local Wisdom (ICGLOW 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/icglow-19.2019.24.

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"Fuzzy performance Evaluation in Romanian Banking Industry." In 2018 the 8th International Workshop on Computer Science and Engineering. WCSE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18178/wcse.2018.06.139.

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Lee, Tung-Hao, Yu-Chun Cheng, and Shu-Hwa Chih. "Risk of Internationalization on Taiwan Banking Industry." In Annual International Conference on Accounting and Finance (AF 2017). Global Science & Technology Forum (GSTF), 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/2251-1997_af17.26.

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Siek, Michael, and Andrew Sutanto. "Impact Analysis of Fintech on Banking Industry." In 2019 International Conference on Information Management and Technology (ICIMTech). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icimtech.2019.8843778.

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Reports on the topic "Banking industry"

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Ackerberg, Daniel, and Gautam Gowrisankaran. Quantifying Equilibrium Network Externalities in the ACH Banking Industry. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12488.

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Hubbard, R. Glenn, and Darius Palia. Executive Pay and Performance: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Industry. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4704.

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Corbae, Dean, and Pablo D'Erasmo. Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25424.

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Wilkey, P. L., R. C. Sundell, K. A. Bailey, and D. C. Hayes. Wetland mitigation banking for the oil and gas industry: Assessment, conclusions, and recommendations. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10147887.

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Clark, Peter. Assessment of Technologies for Forensic Auditing to Combat Money Laundering in the U.S. Banking Industry. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, December 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada373646.

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Humpage, Owen F. On the Origins of the Federal Reserve System and Its Structure. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, August 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202317.

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The creation of the Federal Reserve System ultimately stemmed from fundamental changes in the banking industry that heightened the risks associated with shifts in the public’s liquidity preferences and that created an atmosphere of distrust between the small, traditional, country banks and the large, transforming, Wall Street banks. The severity of the Panic of 1907 became the proximate factor in the Federal Reserve’s formation. The panic, which the New York Clearing House’s slow, discriminative, and insufficient response characterized, gave credence to concerns of growing financial risks and invigorated calls for reform. The Federal Reserve’s unique structure reflects compromises reached in attempts to dampen the risks in the banking industry while easing the distrust and fears of dominance among its various stakeholders.
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TANG, Denise Tse-Shang, Stefanie TENG, Celine TAN, Bonnie LAM, and Christina YUAN. Building inclusive workplaces for lesbians and bisexual women in Hong Kong’s financial services industry. Centre for Cultural Research and Development, Lingnan University, April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.14793/ccrd2021001.

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Workplace inclusion is a core component of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in Hong Kong. Workplace inclusion points to the need for employers to recognize diversity among employees, to acknowledge their contributions to the work environment and to raise professional standards for the work force. Diversity within a workplace indicates inclusion of persons with different backgrounds as in racial, ethnic, sex, health status, sexual orientation and gender identity. Women are already less represented at senior levels across various business sectors in Hong Kong. Lesbians and bisexual women face a double glass ceiling in the workplace as a result of both their gender and sexual orientation. Funded by Lingnan University’s Innovation and Impact Fund, and in partnership with Interbank Forum and Lesbians in Finance, Prof. Denise Tse-Shang Tang conducted an online survey and two focus groups targeting lesbians and bisexual women working in Hong Kong’s financial and banking industry. The aim of the study is to examine the specific challenges and barriers faced by lesbians and bisexual women in Hong Kong’s financial services industry. We found that only 37% of survey respondents were out at work, with 23% partially out to close colleagues. In other words, there are still key concerns with being out at work. On the issue of a glass ceiling for LGBT+ corporate employees, 18% of the survey respondents agreed and 47% somewhat agreed that such a ceiling exists. When asked whether it is harder for lesbians and bisexual women to come out in the workplace than it is for gay men, 32% agreed and 46% somewhat agreed. 27% agreed and 39% somewhat agreed with the statement that it is difficult for lesbians and bisexual women to climb up the corporate ladder. Other findings pointed to the low visibility of lesbians and bisexual women in corporate settings, lack of mentorship, increased levels of stress and anxiety, and the fear of being judged as both a woman and a lesbian. Masculine-presenting employees face significantly more scrutiny than cisgender female employees. Therefore, even though discussion on diversity and inclusion has been on the agenda for better corporate work environment in Hong Kong, there still remain gaps in raising awareness of lesbian and bisexual women’s issues.
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Montoya, Ana María, Eric Parrado, Alex Solís, and Raimundo Undurraga. Research Insights: Do Bank Officers Favor Male over Female Loan Applicants? Inter-American Development Bank, July 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003022.

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A randomized study in Chile found that otherwise equivalent loan requests from women are 18.3 percent less likely to be approved than those from men, largely due to gender-biased officers, particularly males. Median forgone profits associated with applications rejected due to gender discrimination amount to US$1,785 or 23 percent of the median loan size. Considering only discriminated applications from applicants aged 25 to 35 years for amounts between US$1,500 and US$13,500, the forgone profits at the industry level amount to US$5.8 million per year, which is equivalent to 4 percent of the annual labor cost for all loan officers in the Chilean banking system.
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Mariani, Lucas A., José Renato Haas Ornelas, and Bernardo Ricca. Banks’ Physical Footprint and Financial Technology Adoption. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004842.

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We investigate how the presence of physical bank branches moderates financial technology diffusion. Our identification strategy uses services suspensions caused by criminal groups that perform hit-and-run raids exploding branch facilities and rendering them inoperable for months. We show that the shock depletes the cash inventory of branches, but the stock of credit and deposits remain unaffected. We then document that customers increase their usage of noncash payments after the events. We investigate a new instant payment technology called Pix that was a remarkable success in terms of adoption. After robbery events, the number and value of Pix intra-municipality transactions increase, as well as the number of users. We also find Pix usage spillover effects that go beyond cash substitution. First, the number of Pix transactions and users also increases when either the payer or the payee is in an unaffected municipality. Second, we show that there are local spillovers to digital institutions, indicating that cash dependence can be an impediment to their expansion. Our results shed light on the determinants of technology adoption and the consequences of the recent transition in the banking industry from a physical branch-based model to an increasing reliance on digital services.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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