Academic literature on the topic 'Banking Behaviour'

Purpose Risk management is now considered the responsibility of all financial services professionals, not just senior leaders or risk specialists. Very little is known about the role of staff in risk management, so the purpose of this paper is to, first, clarify what constitutes “desirable” risk management behaviour by financial services staff based on the practitioner and regulatory literature. Based on this understanding, the authors analyse the characteristics of those who are most likely to display such behaviour. Design/methodology/approach The paper analyses some 36,000 survey responses across ten banks headquartered in Anglo countries. Findings Desirable risk management behaviour at the employee level includes compliance but goes well beyond mere compliance to include speaking up, thoughtful engagement with and accountability for the risk management framework. The authors find a significant negative association between individual risk tolerance and desirable risk management behaviour. Older workers as well as those with greater seniority are more likely to report desirable risk management behaviour. The link between female gender and risk management behaviour is not supported after controlling for individual risk attitudes. The authors provide evidence that females who succeed in financial services do not conform to traditional female stereotypes. Practical implications Findings suggest financial institutions should hire/retain more older workers and those with lower risk tolerance to improve risk management. Hiring more females, however, is not likely to lead to better risk management. Originality/value The paper is the first to investigate risk management behaviour in financial services staff. The research exploits a unique, difficult to obtain data set.

This study focuses to categorise the types of green behaviours among Islamic bankers and the impact of these behaviours on the growth of green banking in Malaysia. The data was collected through a self-administrated survey questionnaire. McConnaughy’s (2014) behavioural framework was adopted as a measurement scale. The findings prove that all five types of behaviours (conservation, work sustainability, avoiding harm, influencing others and taking initiative) of Islamic bankers have a significant positive impact on the growth of green banking. Particularly, taking initiative was the most influential behaviour for the growth of green banking. The major limitation of this study is the data collection from limited participants which is not an ideal scenario to generalise these findings. The findings are robust to develop green banking regulations, to shape a better green behaviour of Islamic bankers and to enhance green banking growth in Malaysia.

Digital banking is a buzz word these days. There are many factors responsible for the adoption and usage of digital banking. The study is being done to known the factors of social influence, financial behaviour. The study had been done to check the causal association between these study variables in context of digital banking. The results showed presence of association between “social influence” and individual “financial behaviour” for digital banking where in “values” and belief are having mediating role. The “Values” and belief of the individual are influenced by the society in which individual lives and in turn they affect the “financial behaviour” of an individual. The outcomes of the study will aid the to know the role of “Social Influence” via “values” and belief on individual financial behavior specifically related to digital banking platforms or transactions.

The main purpose of the study was to find out the impact of employee competence and employee behaviour on banking customers’ attitude towards banking and trust in the banking system. 300 responses were collected from banking customers by administering structured questionnaire developed for the purpose and translated into arabic language. The results of the study showed that employee competence positive relationship with employee behaviour, and customer attitudes, however it has no significant relationship with the banking customer trust. Employee behaviour has statistically significant relationship with attitude and trust. Customer’s attitude influence trust of the banking customer. The study makes significant contribution to the literature. The findings of the study are important for the banks to improve and enhance banking customer’s attitudes and trust through employee competence and behaviour.

Banking is the one that provides services to customers, in order to create a good image of a businessman. This research aims to analyse the impact of organizational citizenship behavior, counterproductive work behavior, with employee engagement as variable intervening through the impact of employee performance in Bank Perkreditan Rakyat in Batam. The difference in behaviour of each employee is a determinant of their performance in the company. Increased the competition in the banking sector, which continues to compete to create better services. The behaviour of employee has positive and negative that can affected by colleagues around them. Positive behaviour will affect good performance for the organization and negative behaviour will become an obstacle to an organization. Based on the relationship of existing problems, this research needs to determine the effect of employee behaviour can be involved in their own performance. Based on authors survey that people who works on Bank Perkreditan Rakyat shows employee behavior that needs to be considered in employee performance appraisal. By looking at several factors and the impact to these employees on the company. In general, the services provided to the financial services sector are important aspects of the banking sector to improve the quality of the organization.

There is intense competition and increasing globalization in financial markets. Bank management must develop customer-oriented strategies in order to compete successfully in the competitive retail banking environment. The price war and intense competition in Manado banking industry have exposed banks to one of the major threat of switching. Consumers are now more price and service conscious in their financial services purchasing behavior. They are more prone to change their banking behavior as banking products and services are nearly identical in nature. The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight of the drivers that lead a customer switch from one service provider to PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia at Manado. The research is using quantitative method. The data for this analysis was obtained using a purposive sample of 100 PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia customers in Manado City. The decision to switch banks is hypothesised to be a function of Advertising and service quality. Results shows that advertising and service quality have their significant effect on customers’ switching behavior. The findings of present study can be used by PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia for their product and service designing strategies, marketing strategies and customer services practices in order to reduce customer switching. It would help them in improving their service operations and also in increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty by understanding the banking behaviour of their customers. Furthermore, this research provides useful information for future researchers investigating customer switching behaviour in the retail banking industry.

This thesis consists of three essays on banking in the U.S. The first two chapters study how supervisors and regulators influence bank behavior. The third chapter explores how bank CEOs allocate credit. The first chapter uses a quasi-natural experiment, the closure of regulatory offices, to identify the effects of supervision on bank behavior. Under the decentralized structure of U.S. bank supervision, banks in the same geographic area may be supervised by different regulatory offices. The chapter shows that, following the closure of a regulatory office, banks previously supervised by that office increase their solvency risk and lending compared with banks in the same counties that are supervised by a different regulatory office. Further, these banks exhibit lower risk-adjusted returns, lower asset quality, and opportunistic provisioning behavior for loan losses. Information asymmetry between banks and supervisors partly explains the results. The second chapter documents that nearly 30% of U.S. banks employ at least one board member who currently or previously served on a regulator’s advisory council or on the board of a regulator as a form of public service. The chapter shows that connections to regulators undermine regulatory discipline by decreasing the sensitivity of bank risk to capital. Connected banks are able to extract larger public subsidies than non-connected banks by shifting risk to the financial safety-net, resulting in wealth transfers from taxpayers to shareholders of risk-shifting connected banks. One potential reason for these effects is that connected banks receive preferential treatment in supervision from regulators. The third chapter uses the birthplace of U.S. bank CEOs to investigate the effect of hometown favoritism on bank business policies. Exploiting within-bank variation in distances to a CEO’s hometown, the chapter shows that banks make more mortgage and small business lending as well as branch expansions in counties that are proximate to the hometown of the CEO. This is due to the CEO’s altruistic attachment to her hometown; the effects are stronger during economic downturns, among altruistic CEOs, in poorer counties and marginal mortgage applicants. Further, hometown favoritism does not lead to worst bank performance. However, it is associated with positive economic outcomes in counties exposed to greater favoritism.

In this thesis I combine VAR forecasting methods with the Campbell-Shiller log-linear approximation to the present-value formula for stock prices. Four aspects of UK stock market behaviour are studied. The first analysis involves decomposing the variance of the unexpected stock return into components due to news about dividends, news about future returns, and the covariance between the two. I find that changing expectations about future returns accounts for around four times as much of the variance of unexpected returns as news about dividends, with a negligible covariance term. My second study is a detailed analysis of the links between macroeconomic risks and required stock returns. Using 27 industry-based stock portfolios, I attempt to determine the effect that a number of macroeconomic and financial factors have on expectations of dividends, real interest rates and future required returns. The results go some way to explaining why some risk factors appear not to be significantly priced in financial markets, whilst others (particularly inflation) appear to induce counter-theoretical reactions in stock prices. Given an empirical proxy for equilibrium returns, the present-value model implies a set of non-linear restrictions on the parameters of a VAR, the latter being taken as a model of investors' expectations formation. In my third analysis, I test various models of equilibrium returns using aggregate UK data, and find some support for market efficiency. In particular, in accordance with the intertemporal CAPM, I find that the well-known ability of the dividend yield to forecast stock returns can be traced to the fact that the dividend yield Granger-causes the market return variance. In the final section I test two propositions: whether rejections of the CAPM at the aggregate level can be traced to rejections in specific sub-sectors of the market; and whether investors are more skilled at eliminating mis-pricing within market sub-sectors than in the market as a whole. I find mixed support for the CAPM at the disaggregated level. Furthermore, eliminating the covariance terms from the model for sector returns has little effect on the results, providing some support for the market segmentation hypothesis.

With the intense competition and increasing globalization in the financial markets, bank management must develop customer-oriented strategies in order to compete successfully in the competitive retail banking environment. The longer a bank can retain a customer, the greater revenue and cost savings from that customer. However, customers are also more prone to changing their banking behaviour when they can purchase nearly identical financial products provided by the retail banks. In order to stay competitive, bank managers need to understand the factors that influence and determine consumer’s bank switching behaviour. With China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), their financial services market was liberalized and deregulated. As a result, customers have a greater choice between domestic and foreign banks. Furthermore, the emergence of the internet allows customers to access financial products without limitation, and increases the Chinese retail banks’ ability to prevent customers’ switching banks. This study identifies and analyses the factors that influence bank customers’ switching behaviour in the Chinese retail banking industry. The findings reveal that Price, Reputation, Service Quality, Effective Advertising, Involuntary Switching, Distance, and Switching Costs have an impact on customers’ bank switching behaviour. The results also reveal that the Young Age and High Income Groups are more likely to switch banks. In general, the results of this research allow service marketers and practitioners to develop and implement services marketing strategies to decrease customer defection rates, and in turn, increase bank profits. Furthermore, this research provides useful information for future researchers who study switching-behaviour in the banking industry.

Ethics or rather its lack in finances it is a very popular topic nowadays. Banks have an important role in the economy and must have a certain behaviour towards the society, therefore must follow the moral norms. Each banker has his set of values, which form the basis for judging what is "right". All the commercial banks have their own set of rules inspired by organizational culture and management, rules that follow the Banking Code of Ethics. During their activity, banks will seek to ensure a balance between the interests of customers, shareholders, investors and stakeholders. The paper discloses the main trends and issues of banking ethics and the customers` experiences with the Romanian banks. Financial inclusion and ethical sustainability regarding the banking system is an important subject for researchers and bankers. Moreover, the lack of clear ethical norms regarding the manner of communicating the interests and commissions from the contract are affecting the customer relationship with the bank. The study aims to increase the attention paid to customer interests in relation with the banks and also the public confidence in the financial banking field, by standardizing the norms of integration and applied ethics of the country. An immoral behaviour destroys the trust, and without trust, businesses cannot grow. The purpose of the paper is to illustrate and correct the main dysfunctions in the banking sector regarding the ethical behaviour, how banks can adapt to the requirements of the society, how the Banking Code of Ethics can be improved. Confidence in the banking environment expresses the presumption of continued economic activity.

Saving is an important part of many people's lives. Most often a person saves to buy a house, a new car, a holiday in a place they haven't visited or for unexpected situations. To have a balanced financial life it is essential to save, as it reduces stress or other problems that may arise in everyday life. The main reasons why a person saves are emergencies, having loans we want to cover in advance and goods we can't buy with our regular income. The best way to protect savings is not to keep the money in the house, but to open a savings deposit at a bank. The truth is that when money is in the house we are more tempted to spend it and so the whole process of saving takes a turn. In this paper I propose to address a topical issue of particular importance to the savings process in the banking system. Thus, we will show an analysis of the evolution and highlight the trends that have taken place in the context of inflation, certain microeconomic factors, but also in the context of the economy at the national level. We have also captured the moments when events at the national level have had a direct and visible impact on deposits in the banking system.

As noted in recent literature, firms can run on credit lines due to fear of future credit restrictions. We exploit the 2011 stress test supervised by the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Spanish Central Credit Register to explore: 1) the occurrence and magnitude of these runs after the release of negative stress test results; and 2) banks’ behaviour before and after the release of this information. We find that, following the release of the results, firms drew down approximately 10 pp more available funds from lines granted by banks that had a worse performance in the stress test. Moreover, before the release date, poorer performing banks were more likely to reduce the size of credit lines, while those with more significant balances of undrawn credit lines were more likely to cut term lending.

As noted in recent literature, firms can run on credit lines due to fear of future credit restrictions. We exploit the 2011 stress test supervised by the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Spanish Central Credit Register to explore: 1) the occurrence and magnitude of these runs after the release of negative stress test results; and 2) banks’ behaviour before and after the release of this information. We find that, following the release of the results, firms drew down approximately 10 pp more available funds from lines granted by banks that had a worse performance in the stress test. Moreover, before the release date, poorer performing banks were more likely to reduce the size of credit lines, while those with more significant balances of undrawn credit lines were more likely to cut term lending.

We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms that have multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized RDD approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by up to 0.4%, which leads to significant declines in firm investment, profits and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with financial and real sectors with which we undertake a welfare analysis and compute the cost of government borrowing on the overall economy.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor