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Journal articles on the topic 'Backcasting'

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Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 1 February 2022

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1

Thorén, Kent, and Martin Vendel. "Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges." Journal of Strategy and Management 12, no. 2 (May 9, 2019): 298–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-10-2017-0072.

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Purpose Backcasting helps managers involve and align the organization throughout a strategy process. Its core idea is creating a logical path from a depicted future back to the present, to share, analyze and manage strategic challenges. Still its use in strategic management is under-researched. The purpose of this paper is to verify the relevance and validity of backcasting as a strategic management tool. It also analyzes and structures knowledge about backcasting and its practical application in strategic management. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs desktop research method to outline the benefits and limitations of backcasting for strategy formation under VUCA conditions. Findings Backcasting can help organizations overcome cognitive barriers and broaden the scope of options when analyzing future positions. The research provides insights regarding the potential and limitations of backcasting when addressing uncertainty and its drivers. For instance, it helps managers to assess and align visions; increase the understanding and clarity regarding complex dependencies; as well as improve strategic agility. Practical implications Backcasting is exceptionally useful for investigating possible futures and alternative paths to it. Backcasting is an interactive workshop-based method that challenges prevailing mindsets by assuming we are in the future, looking back towards today to find a feasible path when major transitions are necessary. With it, managers can deal with even the most uncertain decisions in a structured manner. Originality/value Backcasting for many reasons has a great potential as a tool for strategy development. It has been successfully applied in other fields but only to a limited extent in business. This paper formally examines its applicability in this context and demonstrates its relevance for dealing with VUCA challenges.

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2

Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the Future." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 33, no. 12 (June 2000): 285–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)37328-7.

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3

Dreborg, Karl H. "Essence of backcasting." Futures 28, no. 9 (November 1996): 813–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00044-4.

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4

Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the future." International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education 2, no. 1 (March 2001): 63–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/1467630110380307.

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5

Schippl, Jens, and I. Leisner. "Backcasting in Transport." TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis 18, no. 2 (August 1, 2009): 63–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.14512/tatup.18.2.63.

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Korhonen, Jouni, and Birk Granberg. "Sweden Backcasting, Now?—Strategic Planning for Covid-19 Mitigation in a Liberal Democracy." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (May 19, 2020): 4138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104138.

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Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data and authors’ reasoning. A backcasting exercise for the case of the Swedish economy is constructed. This frame outlines five interdependent levels with which a national economy can apply what this paper calls a backcasting herd-immunity approach in its COVID-19 policy. The authors further suggest how it is possible to use social science, natural science and political ideology as complementary in COVID-19 mitigation in particular and in sustainability strategies in general.

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Bengston, David N., Lynne M. Westphal, and Michael J. Dockry. "Back from the Future: The Backcasting Wheel for Mapping a Pathway to a Preferred Future." World Futures Review 12, no. 3 (June 17, 2020): 270–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756720929724.

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Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.

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Guillen Mandujano, Georgina, Jaco Quist, and Juho Hamari. "Gamification of backcasting for sustainability: The development of the gameful backcasting framework (GAMEBACK)." Journal of Cleaner Production 302 (June 2021): 126609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126609.

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Barrella, Elise, and Adjo A. Amekudzi. "Backcasting for Sustainable Transportation Planning." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2242, no. 1 (January 2011): 29–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2242-04.

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10

Jablonowski, Mark. "Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting." Risk Management 9, no. 2 (March 26, 2007): 118–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250026.

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Sisto, Roberta, Edgardo Sica, and Giulio Mario Cappelletti. "Drafting the Strategy for Sustainability in Universities: A Backcasting Approach." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (May 24, 2020): 4288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104288.

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The contribution of universities to the sustainability challenge is nowadays crucial due to their role as centers of learning, innovation and research. However, universities can deal with sustainability matters in many different ways which should be accurately identified in their strategies. In this context, the present paper has tested the suitability of backcasting as a participatory approach to involve stakeholders in discussing the most effective actions to improve sustainability within universities’ strategic plan. The experiment—carried out at University of Foggia (UniFg-Italy)—has demonstrated the flexibility of the backcasting approach in identifying the actions required to reach the UniFg sustainability goals according to the 2030 Agenda, allowing the university governance bodies to reach a number of objectives in the design stage. Furthermore, backcasting enhanced the confidence of stakeholders involved with an overall improvement of their empowerment, enabling them to follow and keep track of the whole process of the university’s strategy definition.

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12

Cinq-Mars, J., and E. Wiken. "Using science, technology and innovation in support of conserving Canada's ecosystems and habitats." Forestry Chronicle 78, no. 1 (February 1, 2002): 133–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc78133-1.

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Visions are strong drivers for developing science, technology and innovation. At a time when several signs are indicating a deteriorating global environment, developing a vision for conserving Canada's ecosystem services is timely. Instead of forecasting, backcasting is the approach recommended to facilitate the implementation of the conservation vision. It would include as one of its main components habitat conservation. Recommendations to achieve habitat conservation are provided. With a supporting policy framework, a conservation vision would be a strong incentive for developing science, technology and innovation. Key words: vision, conservation, backcasting, habitat, science, technology, innovation

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13

Wieners, Eva, Martina Neuburger, and Udo Schickhoff. "Adaptability of Backcasting for Sustainable Development." International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management 6, no. 3 (July 2015): 16–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabim.2015070102.

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To cope with problems like climate change, lack of food security, and poverty, a more reasonable use of existing resources is needed. Hence, a transition towards a sustainable behavior in the industrial as well as the developing countries is of core importance. Transition management and backcasting are two methodologies that have been developed mainly in the Netherlands to achieve this behavioral change. This paper examines in a case study, in a small village in the mid-hills of Nepal, whether these methodologies are also applicable in a developing country. Moreover it analyzes which adjustments are needed to achieve good outcomes. First results show that this methodology seems to be appropriate to trigger a change in thinking towards long-term considerations amongst the small scale farmers. Long-range thinking and future envisioning can stimulate investments in technologies that tend to be sustainable and guarantee a more stable return in the long run. Compared to programs in Europe, instructors should adjust time frame and workshop design.

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Giurco, Damien, Brett Cohen, Edward Langham, and Matthew Warnken. "Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 5 (June 2011): 797–818. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.004.

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Höjer, Mattias, and Lars-Göran Mattsson. "Determinism and backcasting in future studies." Futures 32, no. 7 (September 2000): 613–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00012-4.

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Robinson, J. "Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning." Futures 35, no. 8 (October 2003): 839–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00039-9.

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Holmberg, J., and K. H. Robert. "Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning." International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 7, no. 4 (December 2000): 291–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504500009470049.

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18

Jablonowski, Mark. "Erratum: Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting." Risk Management 9, no. 3 (June 25, 2007): 207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250033.

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19

Robèrt, Markus. "Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning." Journal of Cleaner Production 13, no. 8 (June 2005): 841–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2003.12.028.

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20

Nikolakis, William. "Participatory backcasting: Building pathways towards reconciliation?" Futures 122 (September 2020): 102603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102603.

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21

Corrigan and Nieuwenhuis. "Evaluating Goal Programming as a Backcasting Tool to Assess the Impact of Local Stakeholder Determined Policies on the Future Provision of Ecosystem Services in Forested Landscapes." Forests 10, no. 5 (April 30, 2019): 386. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10050386.

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Forest management in Ireland has traditionally focused on timber production and policies have been implemented with this in mind. Since the mid-1990s, the focus is transitioning from timber production to a more multifunctional forest management approach following the principles of sustainable forest management. A method known as “backcasting” has the potential to include local stakeholders into land-use and policy planning. Two case study areas were chosen to investigate the potential of backcasting for integrated forest landscape planning in Ireland: Western Peatlands and Newmarket. Potential beneficial policies produced by local stakeholders in participatory workshops were assessed for robustness using a goal programming model and the resulting changes in forest management and ecosystem service provisions were analysed. While each evaluated backcasting policy increased the provision of that policy’s targeted ecosystem service(s), it was at a cost to some others. The widening of buffer zones did reduce the landscape level risk to water sedimentation and the policy to enhance each landscape’s recreation potential did the intended. However, both policies reduced the amount of timber produced for most potential futures. The option of using genetically improved tree species showed potential to mitigate the effect of these policies on timber production. We present this study as a useful reference point toward evaluating the efficacy of a range of potentially implementable scenarios in Ireland. We believe the backcasting approach has promise for future use in other landscapes, given the success of this approach in our study. Given that much of the information required to model the ecosystem services was extracted from scientific research and datasets from outside of Ireland, the approach may well be useful for others seeking to do similar outside of Ireland.

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Aitken, Rob, Leah Watkins, and Sophie Kemp. "Envisioning a sustainable consumption future." Young Consumers 20, no. 4 (November 15, 2019): 299–313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/yc-12-2018-0905.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand what a sustainable future would look like and the nature of the changes needed to achieve it. Continued reliance on economic growth to meet the demands of a growing population is unsustainable and comes at an unacceptable social and environmental cost. Given these increasing demands, radical changes to present practices of production and consumption are needed to enable a sustainable future. Design/methodology/approach To address this the projective technique of backcasting was used in a pilot study to explore student visions of a sustainable future. An integrative framework comprising housing, clothing, travel, leisure and food provided the structure for six focus group discussions. Findings Thematic analysis identified three key characteristics of a sustainable consumption future, namely, efficiency, sharing and community and three critical elements, namely, the role of government, education and technology, necessary for its achievement. Research limitations/implications Demonstrating the usefulness of backcasting will encourage its application in a wider range of consumption contexts with a broader range of participants. The vision of a sustainable future provides a blueprint that identifies its nature, and the basis upon which decisions to achieve it can be made. Originality/value The research introduces the technique of backcasting and demonstrates its usefulness when dealing with complex problems, where there is a need for radical change and when the status quo is not sustainable. Unexpectedly, results suggest a commitment to prosocial values, collaborative experience, collective action and the importance of community. Research and social implications demonstrating the usefulness of backcasting will encourage its application in a wider range of consumption contexts with a broader range of participants. The vision of a sustainable future provides a blueprint that identifies its nature, and the basis upon which decisions to achieve it can be made.

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23

Biel, Robert. "Visioning a Sustainable Energy Future: The Case of Urban Food-Growing." Theory, Culture & Society 31, no. 5 (July 2, 2014): 183–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0263276414536624.

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This article outlines a future where society re-energizes itself, in the sense both of recapturing creative dynamism and of applying creativity to meeting physical energy needs. Both require us to embrace self-organizing properties, whether in nature or society. The author critically appraises backcasting as a methodology for visioning, arguing that backcasting’s potential for radical, outside-the-box thinking is restricted unless it contemplates a break with class society, connects with existing grassroots struggles (notably over land) and dialogues with the utopian socialist tradition. The article develops a case study of food, starting from the physical parameters of combating the entropy expressed in the loss of soil structure, and applies this to urban food-growing. Drawing upon ‘real utopias’ of existing practice, the author proposes a threefold categorization – subsistence plots, an urban forest, and an ultra-high productivity sector – and emphasizes the emergent properties of such a complex system characterized by the ‘free energy’ of societal self-organization.

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Köves, Alexandra, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs. "Backcasting for Sustainable Employment: A Hungarian Experience." Sustainability 5, no. 7 (July 10, 2013): 2991–3005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su5072991.

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Kishita, Yusuke, Benjamin C. McLellan, Damien Giurco, Kazumasu Aoki, Go Yoshizawa, and Itsuki C. Handoh. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 124 (November 2017): 114–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.001.

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Soria-Lara, Julio A., and David Banister. "Collaborative backcasting for transport policy scenario building." Futures 95 (January 2018): 11–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.003.

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27

Jones, Keith, Api Desai, Mark Mulville, and Aled Jones. "Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach." Facilities 33, no. 11/12 (August 3, 2015): 701–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/f-11-2014-0090.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management. Design/methodology/approach – The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan. Findings – The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

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Timilsina, Raja R., Yoshinori Nakagawa, and Koji Kotani. "Exploring the Possibility of Linking and Incorporating Future Design in Backcasting and Scenario Planning." Sustainability 12, no. 23 (November 27, 2020): 9907. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12239907.

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There are two approaches to future planning: backcasting and scenario planning. While some studies have attempted to relate and combine these two approaches, a future design (FD) approach has recently been advocated and researched. Given this state of affairs, the paper provides an overview of the FD approach and discusses the potential benefits of linking and incorporating it into backcasting and scenario planning by summarizing the main features of such benefits for future planning for sustainability. A feature of an FD is that it explicitly orients people’s ways of thinking in the current generation to be generative for not only their own future but also generations to come, as well as in designing a plan within a coherent timeframe by demonstrating the characteristics of being prospective and retrospective from the viewpoint of a different generation. Another feature of FD lies in strategy making through some visioning process and in redefining the boundary between what is controllable and what is uncontrollable by considering the perspectives of future generations. We consider this article as a concept paper for the special issue of “Designing Sustainable Future Societies,” building on a literature review and author’s conceptual framework. Thus, our ideas and concepts suggest some potential benefits from incorporating FD into backcasting and scenario planning, further inducing people to be future-oriented and/or sustainable in terms of strategy making. We finally demonstrate some examples of FD practices and illustrative ideas of FD incorporation, remarking on possible avenues for future research.

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Dervishi, Albion. "A deep learning backcasting approach to the electrolyte, metabolite, and acid-base parameters that predict risk in ICU patients." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (December 17, 2020): e0242878. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242878.

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Background A powerful risk model allows clinicians, at the bedside, to ensure the early identification of and decision-making for patients showing signs of developing physiological instability during treatment. The aim of this study was to enhance the identification of patients at risk for deterioration through an accurate model using electrolyte, metabolite, and acid-base parameters near the end of patients’ intensive care unit (ICU) stays. Methods This retrospective study included 5157 adult patients during the last 72 hours of their ICU stays. The patients from the MIMIC-III database who had serum lactate, pH, bicarbonate, potassium, calcium, glucose, chloride, and sodium values available, along with the times at which those data were recorded, were selected. Survivor data from the last 24 hours before discharge and four sets of nonsurvivor data from 48–72, 24–48, 8–24, and 0–8 hours before death were analyzed. Deep learning (DL), random forest (RF) and generalized linear model (GLM) analyses were applied for model construction and compared in terms of performance according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A DL backcasting approach was used to assess predictors of death vs. discharge up to 72 hours in advance. Results The DL, RF and GLM models achieved the highest performance for nonsurvivors 0–8 hours before death versus survivors compared with nonsurvivors 8–24, 24–48 and 48–72 hours before death versus survivors. The DL assessment outperformed the RF and GLM assessments and achieved discrimination, with an AUC of 0.982, specificity of 0.947, and sensitivity of 0.935. The DL backcasting approach achieved discrimination with an AUC of 0.898 compared with the DL native model of nonsurvivors from 8–24 hours before death versus survivors with an AUC of 0.894. The DL backcasting approach achieved discrimination with an AUC of 0.871 compared with the DL native model of nonsurvivors from 48–72 hours before death versus survivors with an AUC of 0.846. Conclusions The DL backcasting approach could be used to simultaneously monitor changes in the electrolyte, metabolite, and acid-base parameters of patients who develop physiological instability during ICU treatment and predict the risk of death over a period of hours to days.

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MacIsaac, Hugh J., Julianna V. M. Borbely, Jim R. Muirhead, and Phil A. Graniero. "BACKCASTING AND FORECASTING BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS OF INLAND LAKES." Ecological Applications 14, no. 3 (June 2004): 773–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/02-5377.

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Vergragt, Philip J., and Jaco Quist. "Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 5 (June 2011): 747–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.010.

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Davies, Anna R., and Ruth Doyle. "Transforming Household Consumption: From Backcasting to HomeLabs Experiments." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 105, no. 2 (March 2, 2015): 425–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2014.1000948.

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Heinonen, Sirkka, and Ville Lauttamäki. "Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions." Foresight 14, no. 4 (July 20, 2012): 304–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681211256099.

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Bloomfield, Brian P. "Anomalies and Social Experience: Backcasting with Simulation Models." Social Studies of Science 15, no. 4 (November 1985): 631–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030631285015004003.

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35

Dortmans, Peter J. "Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps." Futures 37, no. 4 (May 2005): 273–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2004.07.003.

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Huntington, Hillard G. "Backcasting U.S. oil demand over a turbulent decade." Energy Policy 39, no. 9 (September 2011): 5674–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.076.

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Saghafian, Bahram, Sara Ghasemi Aghbalaghi, and Mohsen Nasseri. "Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 132, no. 3-4 (April 17, 2017): 717–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2113-x.

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Schulz, Christopher J., and Gary W. Childers. "Estimating changes in river faecal coliform loading using nonparametric multiplicative regression." Journal of Water and Health 9, no. 1 (February 3, 2011): 117–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wh.2011.042.

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Faecal coliform (FC) concentration was monitored weekly in the Tangipahoa River over an eight year period. Available USGS discharge and precipitation data were used to construct a nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) model for both forecasting and backcasting of FC density. NPMR backcasting and forecasting of FC allowed for estimation of concentration for any flow regime. During this study a remediation effort was undertaken to improve disinfection systems of contributing municipal waste water treatment plants in the watershed. Time-series analysis of FC concentrations demonstrated a drop in FC levels coinciding with remediation efforts. The NPMR model suggested the reduction in FC levels was not due to climate variance (i.e. discharge and precipitation changes) alone. Use of the NPMR method circumvented the need for construction of a more complex physical watershed model to estimate FC loading in the river. This method can be used to detect and estimate new discharge impacts, or forecast daily FC estimates.

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Brooks, David B. "Energy Use in Canada: View from the Soft Path." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 6, no. 1 (February 1988): 17–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459878800600103.

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This paper focuses on changing energy use and changing analysis of energy use in Canada from the point of view of policy analysis. End-use efficiency for energy has been improving in Canada, though by less than in other countries. However, conventional forecasts of energy use tend to ignore the implications of those gains, and they are therefore either misleading or unduly constraining for purposes of policy development. An alternative approach, which uses a method of analysis called backcasting rather than forecasting, is preferable for policy purposes. A backcasting analysis for Canada shows that significant cuts in absolute energy use are both technically and economically feasible. More broadly, this feasibility analysis demonstrates that there is no specific amount ot type of energy that is “required” for a given GNP nor is there a “base case” for energy use that is anything more than an analytical construct. Rather, there are lots of options, and different scenarios that will get us from one to another. To a very real extent, a developed country gets the level and character of energy use that it chooses.

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Höjer, Mattias. "Transport telematics in urban systems—a backcasting Delphi study." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 3, no. 6 (November 1998): 445–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1361-9209(98)00021-2.

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Masayuki, KANZAKI. "Utilizing Backcasting and Life Cycle Thinking in Sustainable Management." Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan 16, no. 3 (2020): 182–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3370/lca.16.182.

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Paehlke, Robert. "Backcasting as a policy tool: the role of values." Critical Policy Studies 6, no. 3 (October 2012): 337–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19460171.2012.704975.

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Mattila, Tuomas, and Riina Antikainen. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050." Energy Policy 39, no. 3 (March 2011): 1241–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.051.

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Holmberg, John, and Johan Larsson. "A Sustainability Lighthouse—Supporting Transition Leadership and Conversations on Desirable Futures." Sustainability 10, no. 11 (October 23, 2018): 3842. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10113842.

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Central in leadership for sustainability transitions is the capability to create transformative momentum in a sustainable (desirable) direction, calling for meaningful conversations on sustainable futures. The aim of this study is to develop a conceptual framework to inspire and support such conversations. A qualitative literature review of sustainability conceptualizations was conducted, followed by a thematic analysis. The resulting framework consists of an overarching question and an accompanying set of categories for four sustainability dimensions: the social, the economic, the ecological, and ‘human needs and wellbeing’. Furthermore, the framework is visualized as a lighthouse for pedagogical reasons. We foresee that the lighthouse might be of value in processes guiding socio-technical transitions towards sustainability in three different ways: (1) by attempting to bridge the issue of ‘transition’ with that of ‘sustainability’; (2) as part of a backcasting process; and (3) modes of transdisciplinary research where relevant actors take part in the conversation. The study is related to over 20 years of experience from working with a backcasting approach engaging with sustainability transitions in a variety of processes. We invite further dialogue on how one may approach the concept of sustainability to inspire and support conversations on sustainable futures.

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Soria-Lara, Julio A., and David Banister. "Dynamic participation processes for policy packaging in transport backcasting studies." Transport Policy 58 (August 2017): 19–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.04.006.

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Contreras-Reyes, Javier E., and Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre. "Backcasting and forecasting time series using detrended cross-correlation analysis." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 560 (December 2020): 125109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2020.125109.

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Becker, Joanna. "Use of backcasting to integrate indicators with principles of sustainability." International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 17, no. 3 (May 14, 2010): 189–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504501003726974.

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OKADA, Yuki, Yusuke KISHITA, Robert PHAAL, Yutaka NOMAGUCHI, Tomoaki YANO, and Koichi OHTOMI. "A Method for Supporting Backcasting-oriented Roadmap Design for Sustainability." Proceedings of Design & Systems Conference 2019.29 (2019): 1307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1299/jsmedsd.2019.29.1307.

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Haslauer, Eva, Markus Biberacher, and Thomas Blaschke. "A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning." Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 59, no. 5 (June 29, 2015): 866–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2015.1044652.

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Ng, Artie. "Backcasting performance of the emerging renewable energy sector in China." Journal of Technology Management in China 4, no. 1 (February 13, 2009): 53–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17468770910942834.

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