Dissertations / Theses: 'Backcasting'

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Manero, Ruz Alejandro. "Our Future Destinations: Backcasting for Sustainable Tourism." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-353535.

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The tourism industry has continuously grown in the last fifty years, promoted economic growth and created jobs (UNWTO, 2017). Nevertheless, this industry is impacting and greatly stressing natural environments and societies inciting a transformation towards a more sustainable form of tourism practices (Williams & Ponsford, 2009). The United Nations General Assembly declared 2017 as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development (UNWTO, 2016). The purpose of the declaration was to position the tourism industry as a tool to address the Universal 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (UNWTO, 2016). A backcasting participatory approach was used to explore the roles of the SDGs in creating future sustainable tourism destinations, using Swedish Lapland as a reference. The study uses backcasting as a method together with a literature review and semi-structured interviews to key stakeholders. The study concludes that SDGs are good parameters to describe current scenarios in order to develop desired ones. It also finds that sustainable future tourism destinations are highly connected with environment and society as part of the core experience, resecting traditions and culture. In order to achieve sustainable future destinations legislation, better practices and alternative methods of transportation need to be implemented alongside creating an experience that is based on responsibility towards nature and societies.

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Angelstam, Mikael. "A Future in Sustainable Development : Backcasting the SDGs." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211256.

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In 2015 the 17 Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by 193 member states of the United Nations. The SDGs are highly ambitious and their underlying processes are interconnected by causal relationships. Work towards fulfilling them therefore requires considering how solutions for one goal will impacts others. In this study target-oriented backcasting is applied to examine set goals in the future, as well as to determine the current state and trends of development. This is done in an effort to determine conflicts between targets and resource limitations of future development. The findings suggest that the current paradigm of giving GDP growth highest societal priority, leads to a causal relationship where development occurs at the expense of sustainability at the global level. In order to overcome this, the fulfilment of the SDGs has to be given higher priority than the size and growth rate of the GDP.
Under 2015 antogs de 17 globala hållbarhetsmålen av 193 medlemsstater i Förenta Nationerna. Målen är väldigt ambitiösa och deras underliggande processer sammanlänkar dem via orsakssamband. Arbetet med att uppfylla målen kräver därför att hänsyn tas till hur tänkta lösningar till ett mål i sin tur påverkar de övriga. I den här studien tillämpas target-oriented backcasting för att undersöka de uppsatta framtida målen, samt hur utvecklingen i dagsläget förhåller sig till dessa. Detta görs som ett försök att identifiera konflikter mellan de uppsatta målen, samt mot den begränsade mängden naturresurser som finns tillgänglig för framtida utveckling. Resultaten tyder på att under det rådande paradigmet där BNP tillväxt ges högsta prioritet i samhället, leder detta till ett orsakssamband där samhällsutveckling sker på bekostnad av långsiktig hållbarhet på global nivå. För att kunna komma runt detta krävs att uppfyllandet av de globala hållbarhetsmålen prioriteras över ekonomins storlek och tillväxt avseende BNP.

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Åkerman, Jonas. "Transport systems meeting long-term climate targets : A backcasting approach." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-29712.

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Future transport systems consistent with long-term climate targets are examined in this thesis, using a systems perspective covering the entire transport system. Aviation is given particular attention, as expansion of this mode is difficult to reconcile with climate targets. The aim is to provide scientific decision support for current transport policy-making, especi-ally regarding structures with high inertia, e.g. urban structure, roads, railways, fuel produc-tion systems and vehicle fleets. An additional aim is to widen the perception of possible transport futures consistent with meeting climate targets, and to support a wider discussion in society on this topic. Papers I and III are backcasting studies which encompass the whole transport system. Paper III outlines an image of future Swedish transport by 2050, in which energy use per capita is reduced by 60%. This reduction is consistent with a 42% reduction in total global greenhouse gas emissions. Paper IV shows that total air travel by Swedes generates about 8.7 million tons of CO2-equivalents annually. This corresponds to about 12% of total Swedish emissions. Considering the rapid growth in emissions, aviation is key to achieving overall climate targets. Paper V indicates that building high-speed tracks between Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö may yield emissions reductions of about 550,000 tons of CO2-equivalents annually, if a life-cycle perspective is considered for all modes. However, this reduction is contingent on continuing growth of transport volumes, which seems diffi-cult to reconcile with the images in Papers II and III. This might consequently be a „second best‟ solution if a more radical break in transport growth is deemed unlikely due to external drivers. The overall conclusion from this thesis is that improved vehicle technology and low carbon fuels are necessary, but not solely sufficient, to achieve long-term targets consistent with limiting global warming to two degrees. The growth in volume, especially of car and air travel and truck transport, must also be curbed. However, total travel volume can be maintained at 2005 levels if substantial modal shifts to cycling and public transport are achieved. Moreover, if conscious measures are taken regarding urban planning and the use of communications technology to replace travel, functional accessibility may increase considerably. The trend-breaking development needed to achieve climate targets requires a combination of different policy measures. Pricing of external effects, e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, is a key strategy and would involve ending aviation‟s exemption from carbon tax and value-added tax. Other possible pricing measures include differentiated charges for car travel in urban areas, km-charges on trucks and increased fuel taxes. However, to gain acceptance for pricing measures and maintain a well-functioning society, better alternatives with a lower climate impact are needed. Increased road capacity in urban areas usually increases car travel. Therefore, to achieve the targets set, strict prioritisation of investments in public transport, cycling and ICT infrastructure is needed, especially since public resources are limited. Another conclusion is that, for transport policies to be effective and not lead to sub-optimisations, it is necessary to consider the wider system delimitations explored in this thesis.
Denna avhandling handlar om vilka förändringar av transportsystemet som krävs om långsiktiga klimatmål ska kunna nås. Flyget ägnas speciell uppmärksamhet eftersom dess snabba ökning är mycket svår att förena med klimatmålen. Ett syfte med avhandlingen är att ge underlag för nutida beslut, speciellt sådana som gäller strukturer i samhället med lång livslängd. Det gäller bebyggelsestruktur, vägar, järnvägar och system för bränsleproduktion, men även fordonsflottor. Ett ytterligare syfte är att vidga föreställningen om möjliga trans-portframtider, i syfte att ge underlag för en bredare diskussion i samhället om vilka fördel-arna och nackdelarna är med olika utvecklingar. Artiklarna I och III utgör backcastingstudier där hela transportsystemet behandlas. I artikel III presenteras en framtidsbild för det svenska transportsystemet år 2050 där energianvändningen per person har minskat med 60%. Detta är förenligt med en minskning av de globala utsläppen av växthusgaser med 42%. I artikel IV visas att utsläppen från den svenska befolkningens totala flygresande (inrikes och utrikes) år 2006 uppgick till 8,7 miljoner ton CO2-ekvivalenter. Detta motsvarar 12% av de totala svenska utsläppen av växthusgaser från alla sektorer. Artikel V visar att ett bygge av höghas-tighetsjärnväg mellan Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö (Europabanan) skulle kunna minska de årliga utsläppen med 550 000 ton CO2-ekvivalenter per år, utifrån ett livscykelperspektiv. Denna utsläppsminskning är dock relaterad till ett referensscenario med en relativt kraftig ökning av transportvolymerna, en utveckling som synes svår att förena med framtidsbild-erna i artikel II och III. Höghastighets järnväg kan således betecknas som en ”näst bästa” lösning, som kan bli aktuell om ökningstakten för transportvolymerna inte bedöms kunna bromsas kraftigt. Den övergripande slutsatsen från denna avhandling är att förbättrad fordonsteknik och större andel icke-fossila bränslen är nödvändigt, men att ökningstakten för främst bilresande, flygresande och lastbilstransporter också behöver brytas. Om en kraftig överflyttning kan ske till mer klimatvänliga transportslag, som cykel, buss och spårtrafik, så skulle dock det totala resandet kunna vara ungefär lika stort som det var år 2005. Med en medveten satsning på transporteffektiv samhällsplanering samt ett smart utnyttjande av IT för att ersätta en del resor med virtuella möten, så kan dessutom tillgängligheten till olika funktioner öka mar-kant. För att åstadkomma de trendbrott som behövs om klimatmålen ska nås, krävs en kom-bination av olika styrmedel. Ekonomiska styrmedel är mycket viktiga, inte minst att flygets nuvarande undantag från klimatskatter och moms avslutas. Andra viktiga styrmedel är trängsel- och miljöavgifter för bilar i stadsområden, km-skatter för lastbilar samt i viss mån höjda koldioxidskatter. För att nå acceptans för dessa styrmedel samt bibehålla ett väl funge-rande samhälle krävs dock, i vissa fall, bättre alternativ med låg klimatpåverkan. Eftersom ny vägkapacitet oftast leder till nygenererad trafik, är det viktigt att tillgängliga resurser konsekvent prioriteras till kollektivtrafik, cykel och informations- och kommunikations-teknologi.
QC 20110211

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Lee, P. N. "Sustainable urban transport in Kuala Lumpur : a backcasting scenario approach." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1444947/.

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Urban transport trends and issues in Kuala Lumpur have indicated that they are moving away from sustainability. Besides the conventional problems such as congestion, accidents, urban air pollution, there are signs showing mat social inequality and institutional problems are confronting the transport system in Kuala Lumpur. The above issues are not the natural outcome of development instead, they are related to specific social, economic and political policies. In view of the complexity and the great number of uncertainties, a backcasting scenario methodology has been adopted in this study to analyse the means of breaking the present trend. The overall aim of the research is to explore a wider perspective of possible future opportunities and policy options in order to achieve sustainable urban transport objectives in Kuala Lumpur. The sustainable urban transport policy has been formulated in four major steps (the central structure of scenario backcasting methodology). Firstly, the vision of the urban transport system in Kuala Lumpur has been defined, i.e. the one that provides affordable access to all levels of the community, and does so in an economically viable, environmentally sound and equitable manner. Secondly, policy targets have been identified in accordance with the vision. Then, three Images of the Future have been constructed to represent the alternative images. Finally, measures and policy packages have been developed to bridge the gap between the present and the future images. At every stage of the methodology, local transport experts were invited to contribute their inputs to the study as part of the validation process. The thesis concludes with an assessment of the three Images in relation to sustainability achievement and also their practicality in terms of implementation. It also recommends basic conditions and common measures to achieve a sustainable transport system in Kuala Lumpur. The contributions of this research are twofold. Firstly, it extends the frontiers of the existing transport policy considerations and formulation in Kuala Lumpur, and secondly, it demonstrates a novel application of backcasting scenario methodology to the sustainable urban transport field at the city level.

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Wangel, Josefin. "Making Futures : On Targets, Measures and Governance in Backcasting and Planning." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-94151.

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This thesis is about the making of futures – in the sense of planning, through which the world of tomorrow is crafted, and in the sense of images of the future, developed through the futures studies approach of backcasting. The point of departure for the thesis is that more visionary and strategic forms of planning are needed if the challenges of sustainable development are to be met, and that backcasting, through its long-term, integrative and normative character, can be a helpful tool towards this end. The thesis explores how backcasting can be used when planning for sustainability by looking into three areas of problems and possibilities. The first of these concerns target setting, for which was found that both backcasting and planning tend to use targets that are elusive, rendering it difficult to understand what is included in the target and what is omitted. As a way to rectify this, a framework of methodological considerations for target setting is presented (Paper I). There is also a need for further methodological development on how to set targets for environmental aspects other than energy and GHG gases. The second area concerns the identification of measures and actors, where both backcasting and planning were found to have the problem of being techno-biased and/or taking a rather superficial approach to ‘the social’ which means that the socio-technical complexity of everyday life is left unattended (Paper II). This has consequences in terms of delimiting the scope of measures identified and proposed and of the potential of these to result in intended changes. Two approaches are suggested to deal with this: a methodology for developing socio-technical scenarios, in which an iterative identification of objects and agents of change is a central trait (Paper III), and a service-orientated energy efficiency analysis, in which the social logic of energy use is highlighted (Paper IV). The third area concerns how backcasting can be used in a more explorative approach to the governance of change, instead of leaving this unaddressed and/or unaltered (Paper V). In relation to this, the institutional and political dimensions of planning for sustainability are emphasised, with the focus on path dependency, discursive power and critical junctures (Paper VI). The connection described between the fields of backcasting and planning for sustainability study and practice is thus beneficial for planning by showing how this could be made more visionary and strategic, while also contributing to the theoretical and methodological advancement of backcasting. One of the main contributions of the thesis is the exploration of how backcasting studies could benefit from including the question of ‘Who?’: Who could make the changes happen? Who should change (whose) lifestyle? Who (what group/s in society) benefits and who loses from the images of the future that are developed? And who is invited to take part in the making of futures and whose futures are being heard? Including the question of ‘who’ highlights the normative character of sustainable development and makes issues of environmental justice and equity visible. The formulation of images of the future is also a question of resources and ultimately of power. In relation to this there is a need for groups of society besides those in power to be encouraged to develop their images of the (sustainable, desired) future, and to give room for these in policy-making and planning. The openness of the future renders desirability and ethics, and not probability, the basis on which the feasibility of images of the future must be assessed.

QC 20120514

SitCit
ICT as a motor for transition

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Suwa, Aki. "Soft energy paths in Japan : the backcasting approach to energy planning." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1446820/.

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Climate change is increasingly recognised as a serious threat to the global ecosystem. The international framework, such as the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change provides a main mechanism to harness world-wide commitment for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, to cope with the climate change. Japan is one of the countries which are required to reduce significant amounts of GHG emissions, including C02. The Japanese energy policy is rather fragmented and ineffective in coping with the global climate challenge, and often highly controversial options have been included. Nuclear is, for example, considered by the Japanese government as one of the most important elements to meet its obligation, although there are many doubts over the legitimacy of the option in the light of sustainable development. Against this background, it is critical to review the current energy policy and policy making processes in Japan. This study takes the challenge to propose alternative future visions and to examine their implications in the real policy context. Backcasting methodology, that creates a normative vision and identifies policy path to reach the vision, is identified as a highly relevant conceptual framework to this study. A strategic perspective is applied to the analysis, and the core research quest includes whether the strategic level of discussion between different parties could reduce the policy conflicts and divisions. The study offered four visions and the subsequent policy packages. The detailed policy paths are created to achieve the visions. Two tier evaluation stages are set to validate the policy packages and paths, through communication with selected Japanese energy experts. The study provides an insight as to the effectiveness of the methodology, and the legitimacy of the proposed visions and policy packages. Series of recommendation are made in terms of methodological and policy perspective. In particular, a "policy road map" is proposed as an effective tool to present policy coordination that enables cross strategic and time based policy analysis.

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Fahlberg, Kristin. "Stockholms Energiframtid : En backcastingstudie för ett fossilbränslefritt Stockholms län 2050." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-62469.

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This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy consumption in a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year of 2050 may be. The need to reduce the carbon emission to the atmosphere is extensive and of immediate urgency. One part of reducing carbon emission is to relinquish the fossil energy use which is attained either by reducing the energy consumption or switching to renewable energy use or a combination of both of these measures. The scenarios also describe the energy use per capita as well as carbon emissions per capita (due to energy use) besides being fossil fuel free. The energy use and carbon emission per capita is related to what is known as fair share of environmental space which may indicate if the per capita levels deduced in this study is consistent with a sustainable society. Several measures and their potential (to decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) are presented. The scope of measures reaches for example from energy efficiency to new infrastructure but also to reducing measures that reduce the need for example travels. The measures presented in the study are a reality today or will be in the near future, so the study takes on a non-technology optimistic approach. Several of the measures are combined into two different energy-futures for the year 2050 and their energy use is comparedto a business-as-usual-scenario. The business-as-usual-scenario describes the level of energy use in the County of Stockholm if no active measures are taken to reduce the energy use. The scenarios are presented with two different possible alternatives for the economic and population growth, i.e. alternative BAS (eng; base) and HÖG (eng; high). The study with its (only) two different future scenarios is not exhausting thepossible fossil fuel free futures of Stockholm County. Neither the measures nor the energy-futures have been evaluated from an economic or any other perspective. This means the study leave out whether the measures or the energy futures are feasible from an economic perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like other environmental effects, health issues,equality, aesthetic etc. The aim of presenting different energy-futures of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county is to encourage, simulate stakeholders, policymakers and community citizens to further take an active interest and to start making the changes needed that leads to a fossil fuel free community. The energy-futures but also a few of the measures shows that the future energy use in Stockholm county in the year 2050 may decrease substantially compared 2003. As a result of this the need for renewable energy fuels (for replacing theuse of fossil energy fuels) is reduced. If Stockholm county may take an 10 % part of the bio energy that the whole of Sweden can produce in the future the fossil fuel free energy-futures presented in this study is secured. The energy-futures also shows that the energy use per capita may reach a sustainable level and also that the carbon emission per capita reaches a level far below the suggested level expressed by the Swedish government of 4,5 ton CO2 per capita. One step in the backcasting approach has been left out in this study, i.e. the path to the presented energy-futures. The reason for this is that it needs further analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. As well as analysis over decision making processes, planning processes and different stakeholders involved. However the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments that are needed. Finally, the future is still yet unknown and the energy-futures presented in this study are in the long-time perspective which further increases the uncertainty ofthe scenarios because of uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made. On the other hand the aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but energy futures that fulfil the target of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year 2050.

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Cuginotti, Augusto, Karen Marie Miller, and Freek van der Pluijm. "Design and Decision Making : Backcasting using principles to implement cradle-to-cradle." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3501.

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Human society is currently designed based on linear patterns, without concern for and interactions with the biosphere. The natural world works in cycles, and in order to interact with these systems in a sustainable way, the redesign of human society according to the paradigm of cyclical thinking is required. This paper explores the synthesis and synergies between the cradle-to-cradle concept and a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development in the context of sustainable development. The research tests whether Backcasting using Sustainability Principles is supportive to the implementation of the cradle-to-cradle concept and draws on relevant literature as well as interviews with experts. Based upon this research a process tool is designed and tested within a case study. Results indicate that, when backcasting using sustainability principles, principles for design and principles for decision-making provide synergistic characteristics in the process of implementation. Inspiring design principles, such as the ones suggested by the cradle-to-cradle concept, provide powerful engagement for a social learning process that works towards sustainable development. A structured decision-making process based on backcasting using sustainability principles provides the constraints and criteria for robust decision-making along the journey.

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Höjer, Mattias. "What is the Point of IT? : Backcasting urban transport and land-use futures." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastruktur och samhällsplanering, 2000. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3016.

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Sustainable development, future studies, informationtechnology, urban land-use and passenger transport. These arethe five concepts upon which this thesis and the eight papersit contains are based. The thesis includes both a developmentof future studies methodology, especially with regard tobackcasting, and analyses of the relationship betweensustainable development, information technology, transport andland-use in future cities Paper I (Gudmundsson&Höjer, 1996) suggests foursustainable development principles and discusses theimplications of these four principles for the transportsystem. Paper II (Höjer&Mattsson, 2000) is amethodological paper where backcasting is discussed in relationto some other future studies approaches. Moreover, the use of anumber of common empirical approaches in such studies iscriticised for being too deterministic. Paper III (Höjer, 1997) presents a study where fourtechnical scenarios of intelligent transport systems weregenerated and evaluated. The evaluation used a Delphi-inspiredbackcasting approach, where a total of some 100 internationalexperts contributed to a two-round survey. Paper IV (Höjer, 1998a) highlights three of thescenarios generated in Paper III and elaborates some resultsfrom the evaluation of them. Paper V (Steen et al., 1999) uses assumptions, based onother studies, regarding global future energy supply as well ason the development of vehicle technology and traffic volumes.Based on these, a scenario of a sustainable transport systemfor Sweden in 2040 is developed. Paper VI (Höjer, 2000b) looks at how the patterns ofcommuting and land-use can change with new organisationalforms. The change can either contribute to reduced trafficvolumes and a more sustainable transport system, or it can leadsociety even further into unsustainability. Paper VII (Höjer, 2000a) reports from a calculation ofpotential effects on commuting from a change towards anode-structured Stockholm region. The calculation is based onorigin-destination matrices generated from a traffic analysismodel. Paper VIII (Höjer, 1996) is a generalising analyticalpaper on the relationship between information technology,especially transport telematics, and sustainabledevelopment.
QC 20100617

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Isaksson, Sarah. "När målet inte är förhandlingsbart : Stadsplanering i centrala Nacka år 2030 med backcasting." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-124531.

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Låt oss anta att Nacka kommun, företag och medborgare i samverkan ser den nya tunnelbanesträckningen till Nacka centrum som en möjlighet att skapa de ”trendbrott” i dagens utveckling som behövs för att stödja att centrala Nacka uppfyller sin del av tvågradersmålet till 2050. Studien använder sig av den normativa scenariotekniken backcasting och utgår från ovanstående antagande för att skapa ett scenario för 2030. Scenariot illustrerar en metod för hur planerare, politiker och andra aktörer kan samverka för att bidra till en hållbar stadsutveckling. Scenariot har tagits fram med hjälp av en workshop med deltagare inom olika kunskapsområden från ett konsultbolag i samhällsbyggnadsbranschen och Nacka kommun, där backcastingtekniken tillämpades. Syftet med studien är att illustrera ett alternativ för hur centrala Nacka år 2030 kan se ut om Nacka kommun med andra aktörer i samverkan bestämde sig för att ge ett bidrag till att centrala Nacka ska uppfylla sin del av tvågradersmålet, samt att ge exempel på hur backcasting kan användas i samhällsplaneringen. Studien utgår ifrån att den idag planerade t-banedragningen till Nacka centrum kommer att bli av, och att det i sin tur blir en möjlighet för förändring mot en hållbar utveckling i de centrala delarna av Nacka. Studien har även ett aktörsperspektiv och kartlägger vilka aktörer som idag är med och påverkar utvecklingen i centrala Nacka och vilka som enlig scenariot för 2030 kommer att vara med och påverka utvecklingen. Ett omvärldsscenario för 2030 användes i syfte att få deltagarna att befria tanken och tänka bortom dagens planering. Scenariot för centrala Nacka 2030 förmedlar bilden av centrala Nacka som det skulle kunna se ut om planerare och andra aktörer använder sig av kreativitet och nya idéer för att ge sitt bidrag till uppfyllandet av tvågradersmålet och halvera sina utsläpp till 2050. Vidare visar studien hur backcasting kan användas som en ny metodik i kommunal planering i arbete med exempelvis hållbarhetsprogram för stadsdelar. NYCKELORD: Backcasting, framtidsstudier, workshop, centrala Nacka, omvärldsscenario, aktörssamverkan, strategisk planering
SitCit - Situation of Opportunity in the Growth and Change of three Stockholm City Districts – everyday life, built environment and transport explored as Energy Usage Systems (EUS) and Governance Networks

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George, Lisa. "Enabling environmental activists to identify and refine their objectives by using 'future reflective backcasting'." Thesis, Goldsmiths College (University of London), 2011. http://research.gold.ac.uk/6475/.

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Future narratives can be a useful way of conceptualising environmental problems and constructing solutions. Existing ecological future narratives such as sustainable futures and global warming have been effective at relaying the seriousness and scale of ecological problems but they can also be ambiguous, overwhelming and lead to stasis. In this research, I explore backcasting as a useful mechanism for creating detailed preferred futures and mapping out how those future states can be realised. During my exploration of backasting processes, I identify the possibility for backcasting to move beyond a simple outcome-driven process and instead become a process that creates a space for reflection, formulating and reformulating solutions. I examine four case studies: Cradle-to-Cradle, Transition Towns, Melbourne 2032 and case study 4 which involves 5 workshops in 3 secondary schools. These illustrations present how the creation of alternative futures can be used to address ecological problems. I developed, tested and participated in a variation of backcasting, called future reflective backcasting, in a workshop format. The workshop was enabled by my involvement in an activist group called Culture Jammers. My involvement with Culture Jammers not only reflected and encouraged my growing concern about environmental issues but it also motivated my interest in how small groups respond to such issues. In the workshop, participants generated preferred future states that shaped conversational exchanges which helped them to critically reflect on existing circumstances and identify actions to take in the present. Based on the case studies and participant feedback, I produced a set of recommendations detailing how the future reflective backcasting workshop model should be conducted as well as how to set up and manage the future reflective conversational exchanges. This thesis contributes new knowledge to academic research by identifying a form of backcasting that has not been acknowledged in futures literature or design practice.

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Maas, Helge Alexander [Verfasser]. "Towards CO2eq-neutral Cities : A participatory approach using Backcasting and Transition Management / Helge Alexander Maas." Flensburg : Zentrale Hochschulbibliothek Flensburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1063042917/34.

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Carlberg, Jacob, and Adam Törnqvist. "Arbetspendlingens roll i begränsningen av klimatförändringen : En backcastingstudie i skuggan av covid-19." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-297430.

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I dagens samhälle är klimatet och påverkan på miljön en av de viktigaste frågorna som bör ställas. Transportsektorn står för en stor del av de utsläpp som påverkar miljön och genom att minska utsläppen från transportsektorn kan frågor om klimatet adresseras. Arbetspendling är en del av transportsektorn och har använts som fokusområde för rapporten på grund av dess möjligheter till förändring som kommit i ljuset under Covid-19 pandemin. Syftet med rapporten är således att undersöka hur klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling kan reduceras. För detta har Järfälla kommun valts som fokusområde. För att svara på syftet har en scenario- och litteraturstudie genomförts för att ge svar på vilka förändringar i resvanor som skett i samband med pandemin samt på vilket sätt en reducering av utsläppen relaterade till arbetspendlande kan ske. Scenariostudien utformades som en backcastingstudie vilken resulterade i fyra scenarier där samtliga beskriver sätt att nå målet om en reducering av klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling. Resultatet av studien presenteras i form av scenarier som alla ger ett svar på syftet, ‘hur kan klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling reduceras’ genom att visa effekterna av åtgärder såsom att arbeta från hemmet och begränsa möjligheten till parkering vid arbetsplatsen. Genom att göra en scenariostudie har syftet kunnat besvaras. Däremot har flera antaganden behövts göras som påverkar resultatet. Slutsatsen som kan dras av arbetet är således att klimatpåverkan från arbetspendling kan minska genom att tillämpa åtgärder såsom hemarbete och en begränsning av antalet parkeringsplatser, men ytterligare studier bör genomföras på energianvändningens skifte från arbetsplatsen till hemmet, digitala mötens effekt på transportbehovet, arbetspendlingens klimatpåverkan utöver CO2-utsläpp och hur anställdas hälsa påverkas av hemarbetet.
In today's society, the climate and the impact on the environment is one of the most important questions that should be asked. The transport sector accounts for a large part of the emissions that affect the environment, and by reducing emissions from the transport sector, such questions about the climate can be addressed. Work commuting is part of the transport sector and has been used as a focus area for this study due to the potential for change that came to light during the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate how the climate impact from commuting can be reduced. For this Järfälla in Stockholm has been chosen as the area of study. To answer the purpose, a scenario and literature study has been conducted to provide answers to what changes in travel habits have occurred due to the pandemic and in what ways a reduction in emissions related to commuting can happen. The scenario study was designed as a backcasting study which resulted in four scenarios where all describe ways to achieve the goal of reducing the climate impact from commuting. The results of the study are therefore presented in the form of scenarios that all provide an answer to the purpose, ‘how can the climate impact from commuting be reduced’ by showing the effects of measures such as working from home and limiting the possibility of parking at the workplace. By doing a scenario study, the purpose of the study has been answered. However, several assumptions have had to be made that affected the result. The conclusion that can be drawn from the study is that the climate impact from commuting can be reduced by applying measures such as working from home and a limitation of the number of parking spaces available, but further studies needs to be carried out regarding the shift in energy usage from the workplace to the home, the effect of digital meetings on the need for transport, the climate impact of commuting in addition to CO2 emissions and how employees' health is affected by working from home.

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Becirovic, Dzanela, and Heléne Meisinger. "Backcasting som verktyg för att bedöma miljöpåverkan av en organisations upphandling : en fallstudie på Linköpings Universitet." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-12298.

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Företags och andra organisationers konsumtion av produkter och tjänster bidrar till miljöpåverkan i alla dess faser. Det är enklare för ett producerande företag att identifiera sina mest kritiska upphandlingsområden, till skillnad från organisationer som huvudsakligen upphandlar varor och tjänster. Med upphandling avses i det här fallet en organisations inköp av varor och tjänster. Upphandlingen av varor och tjänster bidrar till indirekt miljöpåverkan och den upphandlande organisationen har ofta svårt att påverka produktions- och slutfas av varor och tjänster.

Syftet med studien är att utveckla ett arbetssätt för att kunna bedöma en icke-producerande organisations miljöpåverkan av dess upphandling av varor och tjänster. Detta arbetssätt kommer att testas och utföras som en fallstudiestudie på Linköpings Universitet (LiU), där syftet är att identifiera kritiska upphandlingsområden.

Denna fallstudie bygger på en tidigare studie på LiU där miljöpåverkan har bedömts i produktionsfasen med hjälp av miljöexpanderad inputoutputanalys (MIOA). Denna metod inkluderar inte en varas eller tjänsts miljöpåverkan i användnings- och slutfasen. För att få en helhetsbild kommer backcastingmetoden att användas som ett ramverk. Backcasting som är en visionär scenariemetod kommer att kompletteras med MIOA, ett livscykelperspektiv och en värderingsmetod.

Slutsatserna av fallstudien är att datorer och tillbehör samt konsulttjänster är de mest kritiska upphandlingsområden ur ett miljöperspektiv. Dessa två upphandlingsområden har sin största miljöpåverkan i användningsfasen.

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Wik, Reijonen Karin, and Sebastian Sandberg. "Backcasting som metod för att etablera en klimatstrategi för minskad klimatpåverkan : En fallstudie av Linköpings Universitet." Thesis, Linköping University, The Tema Institute, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-12294.

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I allt större utsträckning blir det vanligare för företag att redovisa sina utsläpp av växthusgaser, främst koldioxid. Linköpings Universitet (LiU) fastställde genom sina miljömål att en klimatstrategi skulle upprättas för att få kännedom om hur verksamheten påverkar klimatet via utsläpp av koldioxid samt tänkbara åtgärder för förbättring. Genom identifiering och kvantifiering av problem kan förutsättningar skapas för att möjliga lösningar initieras som i sin tur kan ge såväl ekonomiska som miljömässiga vinster.

Studien syftar till att med hjälp av backcastingmetoden upprätta en klimatstrategi, samt ge förslag till konkreta åtgärder för LiU. Det empiriska materialet består utav statistik inhämtad från 2006: års data från: energianvändning, tjänsteresor samt hyrbilsverksamhet. Empiri har även inhämtats via en workshop med Universitetsledning och forskare inom LiU.

De slutsatser som dragits genom denna studie är att det med hjälp av backcasting är möjligt att skapa en klimatstrategi. Mer specifika slutsatser dragna för LiU´s kommande strategiarbete är energieffektivisering, alternativa transportsätt avseende tjänsteresor samt alternativa mötesformer.

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Dreborg, Karl Henrik. "Scenarios and structural uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3697.

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Lagercrantz, Viktoria, and Emma Westling. "En elektrifierad personbilsflotta : En hållbarhetsanalys." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-297433.

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Idag står transportsektorn för cirka 30 % av Sveriges totala koldioxidutsläpp. Elbilen ses som en hållbar lösning då den skulle minska utsläppen från Sveriges transportsektor. Hållbarhet handlar dock inte bara om koldioxidutsläpp. Syftet med projektet är därför att ge en kritisk bild av ett framtida elektrifierat samhälle med fokus på elbilen. Arbetet syftar också till att undersöka vad som krävs för att elektrifiera den svenska personbilsflottan och om detta skulle leda till ett mer hållbart samhälle. De metoder som använts är litteraturstudie, workshop och en modifierad version av två befintliga Backcasting-metoder. De huvudsakliga resultaten är att elektrifiering av personbilsflottan i Sverige, utan vidare åtgärder, leder till att koldioxidutsläppen minskar. Elbilen är också avgasfri vilket gör att även partiklar och skadliga ämnen från avgaserna minskar. Dock finns en risk att problem som giftutsläpp samt dåliga arbetsvillkor vid framtagning av råvaror till elbilsbatterier förvärras när efterfrågan på råvarorna ökar. För de problem och aspekter som inte blir bättre har redan ett antal åtgärder börjat vidtas för att göra personbilsflottan mer hållbar. Dock är det svårt att säga hur stor inverkan åtgärderna har på problemen och fler åtgärder behöver vidtas för att hela produktionskedjan ska bli hållbar. Slutsatsen som dras i arbetet är att elbilen i sig inte leder till ett hållbart samhälle men att om en kombination av fler åtgärder vidtas finns potential att elbilen kan bidra till ett mer hållbart samhälle.
Today, the transport sector accounts for approximately 30 % of Sweden's total CO2-emissions. The battery electric vehicle is seen as a sustainable solution as it would reduce emissions from Sweden’s transport sector. However, sustainability is not just about CO2-emissions. The aim of the project is therefore to give a critical picture of a future electrified society with focus on the battery electric vehicle. The work also aims to investigate what is required to electrify the Swedish passenger car fleet and whether this would lead to a more sustainable society. The methods used in the report are literature study, workshop and a modified version of two existing Backcasting methods. The main results are that electrification of the passenger car fleet in Sweden, without further action, leads to a reduction in CO2-emissions. The battery electric vehicle is also exhaust-free, which means that particles and harmful substances from the exhaust gases are also reduced. However, there is a risk that problems such as toxic emissions and poor working conditions in the production of raw materials for electric vehicle batteries will worsen as demand for raw materials increases. For the problems and aspects that are not getting better, a number of measures have already begun to be taken to make the passenger car fleet more sustainable. However, it is difficult to say how much impact the measures have on the problems and more measures need to be taken to make the entire production chain sustainable. The conclusion drawn from the work is that the battery electric vehicle itself does not lead to a sustainable society, but if measures are taken, there is the potential that the battery electric vehicle can contribute to a more sustainable society.

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Dahlquist, Josefin, and Holmström Matilda Ninasdotter. "Klimatneutrala inrikesgodstransporter år 2045 : En backcasting och multi-level perspectiveanalys om elvägens och järnvägens framtida roll i godstransportsystemet." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-253832.

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Sveriges riksdag har beslutat att de nationella nettoutsläppen av växthusgaser år 2045 ska varanoll samt reduceras med 70 % till år 2030. Vägfordon som transporterar gods stod år 2017 förungefär 30 % av transportsektorns totala nationella utsläpp. Syftet med studien är att belysahur en omställning från fossila till fossilfria godstransporter på land kan ske i Sverige till år2045 samtidigt som näringslivets behov av godstransporter tillgodoses. Angreppssättet är attgenom backcasting formulera två framtidsscenarier - scenario A innebär stor satsning på järnväg,scenario B innebär stor satsning på elväg - för att påvisa vilka åtgärder som krävs samt när ochgenom Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) analysera hur de två transportslagen kan utvecklas tillden dominanta regimen i respektive framtidsbild. Studien visade att utsläppsreduktionen går snabbare i scenario B vilket då innebär lägreackumulerade utsläpp samt att den monetära kostnaden för scenario A är dubbelt så stor somkostnaden för scenario B. Ett antal hinder, barriärer och möjligheter identifierades och analyseradesför de båda scenarierna. De aktörer som identifierades var politiska och lagstiftandeinstanser, transportköpare, transportörer, aktörer inom forskning och teknikutveckling, intresseochpåverkansorganisationer, konstruktions- och underhållsentreprenörer samt drivmedelsproducenteroch distributörer. De två förstnämnda bedömdes ha störst inflytande. För elvägar måstenischaktörerna lyckas skapa tillräckligt med intresse för att öka momentumet och ta elvägartill regimnivån. För järnvägen måste aktörerna får upp momentumet inom regimen med interninnovation för att kunna konkurrera med vägtransporter. Sammanfattningsvis visar studien på att en implementering av elväg kan vara bättre påkort sikt och järnväg bättre på längre sikt. Klimatmålet om netto-nollutsläpp till år 2045 kannås samtidigt som näringslivets behov av godstransporter tillgodoses, men konstruktionen avinfrastruktur måste påbörjas snart för att överflyttningen och omställningen ska hinna ske. Föratt nå 2030-målet verkar en ökad inblandning av biodrivmedel i vägfordon utgöra den störstamöjligheten, dock måste de sedan fasas ut för att ersättas av järnväg och elväg.
The Swedish Parliament has decided that the national net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2045should be zero and reduced by 70 % by 2030. In 2017, road freight vehicles were responsible forabout 30 % of the transport sector’s total national emissions. The purpose of the study is tohighlight how a transition from fossil to fossil-free freight transport on land can happen in Swedenuntil 2045, whilst meeting the country’s need for freight transport. The approach is to formulate,through backcasting, two possible scenarios of the future where the targets are met - scenario Ainvolves a large investment in railways, scenario B involves a large investment in electric roadsystems (ERS) - to demonstrate what measures are required and when, and through Multi-LevelPerspective (MLP) analyse how the two modes of transport can be developed into the dominantregime in each scenario. The study showed that the reduction rate of emissions is faster in scenario B, which thenmeans lesser accumulated emissions and that the monetary cost for scenario A is twice as highas the cost for scenario B. Also, a number of obstacles, barriers and opportunities were identifiedand analysed for the two scenarios. The actors that were assessed to possess the greatest influencewere political and legislative actors, and transport buyers. Regarding ERS, niche actors mustsucceed in creating enough interest to increase momentum and take ERS to the regime level.Regarding railway, the actors must increase the momentum within the regime with internalinnovation to be able to compete with road freight transport. In conclusion, the study shows that an implementation of ERS can be favourable in the shortterm and rail freight better in the longer term. The climate target of net zero emissions by 2045can be reached whilst the country’s need for freight transport is met, but the construction ofinfrastructure must begin as soon as possible for the transfer of goods and transformation ofthe system to take place. Moreover, the study argues that in order to reach the 2030 target,an increased use of biofuels in road vehicles seems to be the most promising solution. However,biofuels must then be phased out in order to be replaced by railway and ERS.

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Musse, Jorge de Oliveira. "Backcasting e dinâmica de sistemas como instrumentos para criar conhecimento em sistemas complexos, visando à tomada de decisão." reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFSC, 2012. http://repositorio.ufsc.br/xmlui/handle/123456789/93786.

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Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia e Gestão do Conhecimento, Florianópolis, 2010
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Esta tese apresenta um método que associa o Backcasting e a Dinâmica de Sistemas como instrumentos para criar conhecimento em sistemas complexos, visando à tomada de decisão. O Backcasting, instrumento de planejamento aplicado a questões de sustentabilidade e responsabilidade social com impactos significativos sobre o meio ambiente, buscando caminhos sustentáveis para atingir futuros desejados, imunes às tendências dominantes. O Backcasting, através da característica de trazer o futuro para o presente, alinha os diferentes detentores do conhecimento para um objetivo comum implícito ou explícito. A Dinâmica de Sistemas é uma ferramenta útil para trabalhar com teorias e a realidade, ganhar tempo sobre o longo e incerto sistema complexo. Sua contribuição consiste em modelar sistemas com base nas suas estruturas e nas interrelações de suas forças, vendo-as num contexto amplo e entendendo-as como partes de um processo comum. A Dinâmica de Sistemas possibilita, através de sua característica no exercício de simulação, a aceleração do processo de criação do conhecimento. O método proposto integra Backcasting e Dinâmica de Sistemas. A Dinâmica de Sistemas permite ao Backcasting um meio de monitoramento antecipado que, por sua vez, oferece à Dinâmica de Sistemas um ponto de referência no futuro. Uma aplicação deste método é realizada com o setor habitacional do município de Florianópolis, especificamente no segmento composto por famílias com renda mensal de até três salários mínimos. Desenvolve-se, passo a passo, o modelo desse setor, utilizando-se a Dinâmica de Sistemas e, como instrumento de programação, o software STELLA II®. O período em estudo varia entre 2010 e 2030 e a modelagem do setor habitacional é programada de duas formas diferentes, do presente para o futuro e do futuro para o presente. Simula-se o modelo considerando três cenários: otimista, intermediário e pessimista, propondo-se para cada um deles objetivos específicos com relação ao número de domicílios a serem construídos para essas famílias no período estabelecido.

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Witi, Jongikhaya. "Assessing South Africa's potential to become a low carbon society : a backcasting approach to climate change mitigation assessment." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5449.

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Balbin, Vila Jordi. "Sustainable development in Änggärdet : A Backcasting Approach for what a Sustainable Community Farm Might Comprise in the Future." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-287373.

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It can be argued that the growing threat of climate change, of a culture of capitalism and consumption established in today’s society, drives networks of people to form unions and not to follow standard production and consumption systems, of which Änggärdet is a representation. This thesis project aims to create a desirable and sustainable future scenario for Änggärdet in 2030 based on a backcasting methodology. Additionally, this project aims to build a vision and potential future solutions and concepts for Änggärdet sustainable development. To do so, research has been done in the form of a literature review and empirical data collection through surveys and workshop tools. A vision was formulated while not setting ambitious goals and therefore having a high degree of plausibility. Findings show that developing a future solution requires a greater need to involve stakeholders, further evaluate internal limitations, and account for two accelerating forces. Furthermore, six-short term goals can be set as part of the development initiation. Finally, an awareness and an understanding of present and long-term challenges exist amongst members of Änggärdet. The study enables Änggärdet to train and develop skills in terms of sustainable production and consumption and encourages collaboration between Flen Municipality and Änggärdet to influence and raise awareness amongst the surrounding residents and companies.
Det kan argumenteras för att det växande hotet om klimatförändringar, och om en kultur av kapitalism och konsumtion som etablerats i dagens samhälle, driver nätverk av människor till att bilda sammanslutningar och till att inte följa modula produktions- och konsumtionssystem. I denna rapport är Änggärdet - en gårdsgemenskap, en representation av ett alternativ till en social rörelse. Denna masteruppsats syftar till att skapa önskvärda och hållbara framtidsscenarier för Änggärdet till år 2030. Änggärdets huvudsyfte är att gemensamt utveckla en hållbar livsstil och att bidra till övergången till | ett hållbart och motståndskraftigt samhälle. Änggärdet vill även skapa en livsstil som har ett mindre beroende av konsumtion och ett större beroende av ett mer kreativt och enhälligt samhälle. I linje med gårdens vision syftar denna studie till att bygga en vision och potentiella framtida lösningar och koncept för Änggärdets hållbara utveckling. För detta ändamål tillämpas två kombinerade backcasting-modeller; ett metodologisk ramverk för backcasting och en modulär deltagande backcasting. För att utföra detta har forskning genomförts i form av litteraturöversikt och empirisk datainsamling baserade på workshop- och undersökningsinstrument. En vision formulerades, utan krav på ambitiösa mål, vilket bidrog till en hög grad av rimlighet. Resultaten demonstrerar att, för att en framtida lösning ska utvecklas, finns ett större behov av att involvera intressenter, att vidare utvärdera interna begränsningar och att ta hänsyn till två accelererande drivkrafter. Vidare kan sex kortsiktiga mål användas som en del av den initierade utvecklingen. Slutligen råder en medvetenhet och en förståelse för nuvarande och långsiktiga utmaningar bland Änggärdets medlemmar. Föreliggande studie ger Änggärdet möjligheten att utbilda och utveckla färdigheter, gällande hållbar produktion och konsumtion, och uppmuntrar även till samarbete mellan Flen kommun och Änggärdet. Detta för att influera och öka medvetenheten hos de omgivande invånarna och företagen.

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Ronge, Victoria. "Sustainable Forestry? : A Sustainability Analysis of the Swedish Forest Sector Applying 'Backcasting from Sustainability Principles' as the Methodology." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-200277.

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Forests are key providers of terrestrial ecosystem services such as climate regulation, water purification, natural pest control, habitats for biodiversity, as well as different forms of wood based materials and food. Nevertheless forests are dangerously exposed to great pressures from various kinds of societal activities. This report examines the importance of forests for the (i) maintenance of life supporting functions of the biosphere as well as for (ii) providing a flexible resource base for the satisfying of human needs on more and more sustainability-driven markets. How can Swedish forestry be managed such that those two essential roles of forests become mutually supportive? The report also relates the results to three relevant and well-citied protocols for the subject: the Sustainable Development Goals in UN’s Agenda 2030, the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives, and the Swedish National Forest Program. The approach applied Maxwell’s process design for qualitative research. Data have been collected from literature search and interviews of experts and the analytical instrument for modeling of data was the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD). The report concludes: Sustainable development for forestry relies on a paradigm shift in civilization’s perception of forestry to a practice where planning departures from envisioning a future where natural forest functions to sustain higher life forms and civilization are safeguarded and prioritized before other usages of forestland, and where diversity is enhanced in terms of tree age and species to foster more resilient and high-quality timber forests. When the above points are achieved, the higher diversity of more resilient forests should also have potential to supply markets with various kinds of resources offered to more and more sustainability driven markets. Furthermore, this development of society’s forest use increases the chances for civilization to be sustainable also with relatively smaller forest areas put aside for no forestry at all. In such a situation forestry and society have prioritized forest products and usages with long life spans before such with short. A future sustainable Swedish forest sector has recognized the above, and drawn an essential conclusion from it: the interdependency of forests with society’s overall sustainability performance calls for a cooperative approach that departures from an understanding of basic sustainability principles that are shared across sectors and disciplines. The Sustainable Development Goals, the Swedish Environmental Objectives and the Swedish National Forest Program all fail to take the above broad- systems perspective when it comes to proposing measures for the future, including how to advise further research to explore what the sustainable Swedish forestry could entail. The study arrives at pointing out an overall approach to analyses, planning and further research in those regards, rather than evaluating details on the path towards sustainable forestry.
Skogen är en nyckelresurs i den landbaserade naturen som förser samhället med ekosystemtjänster såsom klimatreglering, vattenrening, naturlig skadedjursbekämpning, habitat för biologisk mångfald, likväl som olika former av träfiberbaserade material och mat. Samtidigt är skogen hotad av kraftigt tryck från olika aktiviteter i samhället. Den här rapporten undersöker skogens betydelse för (i) upprätthållande av biosfärens livsuppehållande funktioner, samt som (ii) flexibel resurs när det gäller att förse mänskliga behov på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Hur bör skogen skötas så att dessa två roller stödjer varandra? Rapporten relaterar också resultaten till tre relevanta och vanligt citerade protokoll: hållbarhetsmålen i FNs Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet. Forskningen har strukturerats med hjälp av Maxwells process-design för kvalitativ forskning. Data har samlats in genom litteraturstudier och från intervjuer med experter. Modellering av data har gjorts genom att använda ramverket för strategisk hållbar utveckling (FSSD) som analysinstrument. Rapporten kommer fram till att: Hållbar utveckling för skogsbruket är beroende av ett paradigmskifte. En skogsskötsel där (i) planering utgår från att föreställa sig en framtid där skogens funktioner för högre liv på jorden är säkrade och satta före annan användning av skogsmark, och (ii) mångfald är främjad gällande trädens ålder och antalet arter så att mer resilienta skogar kan bidra med högkvalitativt timmer. När skogen förvaltas på det sättet så bör de mer diversa och resilienta skogarna ha möjlighet att förse marknader med olika resurser som kan visa sig vara viktiga på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Vidare borde denna utveckling av samhälles skogsanvändning öka chanserna för civilisationen att bli hållbar med relativt mindre ytor reserverade för att skyddas mot skogsbruk. Med en sådan förvaltning har skogsägare och samhället i stort prioriterat produkter och användningsområden med långa livslängder före sådana med korta livslängder. En framtida hållbar svensk skogssektor har insett allt ovanstående och dragit en väsentlig slutsats från det: beroendet mellan skogen och samhällets övergripande hållbarhetsarbete kräver samarbete utgående från grundläggande hållbarhetsprinciper som delas över sektors- och disciplingränser. Hållbarhetsmålen i Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet saknas alla ett tillräckligt brett systemperspektiv när det gäller att föreslå åtgärder för framtiden, inklusive att ge rekommendationer för framtida forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk. Studien pekar snarare ut en övergripande inriktning för analyser, planering och forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk, än utvärderar de exakta stegen på vägen dit.

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Francart, Nicolas. "Climate Implications of a Collaborative Economy Scenario for Transportation and the Built Environment." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188974.

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In a context of increasingly ambitious climate objectives after the Paris Agreement in 2015, this thesis investigates a scenario for sustainable development in Sweden in 2050 in terms of greenhouse gases emissions. The scenario is built around the idea of a development of collaborative economy in a context of low growth or degrowth. The concept of “collaborative economy” encompasses the sharing of services and underused and unwanted goods between individuals, a focus on the access to services rather than the ownership of products, and new ways of sharing space and time (cohousing, time banks, etc). The present study focuses on the implications of the Collaborative Economy scenario for transports and the built environment at a municipal scale, and aims at modeling the corresponding greenhouse gases emissions. A literature review was carried out to identify the main aspects of the scenario and exemplify the changes it entails. Two spreadsheet models were then developed for transports and the built environment, estimating greenhouse gases emission levels based on a range of assumptions elaborated from the literature review. The municipality of Malmö was used as a case study. Overall, the results of the models and the sensitivity analysis indicate a rather weak influence of collaborative economy strategies on greenhouse gases emissions. Strategies related to changes in the energy mix for heating, materials used in construction, fuels, etc seem to be much more impactful. However, such strategies only impact greenhouse gases emissions, whereas collaborative economy strategies can have other benefits. In particular, cohousing can increase social capital and foster sharing, which in turn could decrease energy and material use for the production of goods. Ridesharing, remote working among others, can decrease congestion and the daily distance traveled. Most of these strategies also provide energy savings, improving the resilience of the system and freeing the energy supply for other purposes.
Bortom BNP-tillväxt

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24

Fauré, Eléonore. "Sustainability goals combining social and environmental aspects." Licentiate thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-191524.

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This thesis examines how to take into account both environmental and social sustainability goals to be used in scenarios or in policymaking. In paper I, we select four sustainability goals that have to be fulfilled by 2050 in normative future scenarios for Sweden in a degrowth context. Two goals address ecological challenges, climate change and land use issues specifically. The other two goals address social issues and deal with participation and influence in society as well as resource security and distribution. The environmental goals will require significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use compared to today's levels. The social goals are within reach today, although the degree of fulfillment differs across different groups in society. In paper II, we review existing and suggested climate or energy targets at a global, national and local scale and search for justice perspectives or for proposals for such perspectives. We find that the justice aspect is not explicitly formulated in existing climate and energy targets and that, the community of justice i.e. the receivers of benefits or burdens, in our reviewed examples, is limited to human beings, thereby excluding all other living beings. In paper III, we assess how four different backcasting scenarios for land use in a Swedish context, all of which fulfil a climate target of zero CO2 emissions in 2060, impact on other sustainability goals. We conduct a goal conflict analysis between the chosen climate goal and the other Swedish environmental goals, the gender equity goals and the public health goal. We find that there are more potential goal conflicts in scenarios with no global climate agreement. From the results of all three papers, I then discuss several aspects that have to be taken into account when setting goals, such as the major uncertainties associated with long-term goals, the elusiveness, the normativity of goals and the need to separate goals from the means to achieve the goals.
Utsläpp av växthusgaser (GHG) och andra miljöproblem, såsom förlust av biologisk mångfald, markanvändning och övergödning av sötvatten och marina kustekosystem, är stora utmaningar för mänskligheten. De planetära gränser för dessa områden har redan överskridits. Av de 16 svenska miljömålen för 2020, vars syfte är att lösa dessa ödesfrågor, bedöms bara ett – "Ett skyddande ozonskikt" – uppnås i tid. Vad gäller sociala mål på global nivå fram till 2015 – FN:s Milleniemål – har visserligen betydande framsteg gjorts på en del områden, t.ex. jämställdhet i utbildningen, men utfallet skiljer sig mellan länder och inom länder med avseende på socioekonomisk grupp och kön. Denna avhandling undersöker hur man kan ta hänsyn till både miljömässiga och sociala hållbarhetsmål som ska användas i framtidsscenarier eller som underlag till beslutsfattande. I artikel I väljs fyra hållbarhetsmål i en tvärvetenskaplig process. Målen ska uppfyllas 2050 i s.k. normativa framtidsscenarier (backcasting) för Sverige i en kontext av nedväxt eller låg tillväxt. De två första målen handlar om klimatförändringar och markanvändningsfrågor. De två andra är sociala mål och omfattar delaktighet och inflytande i samhället samt tillgång till resurser och fördelning av dessa. För att uppnå de valda miljömålen, kommer drastiska minskningar av växthusgasutsläpp (GHG) och markanvändning att behövas, jämfört med dagens situation. Båda de sociala målen är inom räckhåll i dag, även om graden av uppfyllelse skiljer sig mellan olika grupper i samhället. I artikel II genomförs en kvalitativ dokumentanalys för att samla information om befintliga och föreslagna klimat- och energimål på global, nationell och lokal nivå. Vi letar också efter rättviseperspektiv i befintliga klimat- och energimål samt förslag till sådana perspektiv i föreslagna mål i den vetenskapliga litteraturen liksom i rapporter från miljöorganisationer. En slutsats är att rättvisa inte är uttryckligen formulerat i befintliga klimat- och energimål. Vi använder en teoretisk ram för social rättvisa som skiljer mellan vem som ger och får det som fördelas, vad som fördelas (rättvisevaluta) och hur det fördelas (distributionsprinciper). Utifrån vår analys fann vi att en egalitär princip används för de flesta föreslagna målen, exempelvis för globala mål om utsläpp av växthusgaser per capita. Samtliga av de granskade målen omfattar endast rättvisa mellan människor och exkluderar därmed andra levande varelser. I artikel III analyserar vi hur fyra olika backcastingscenarier för markanvändning i ett svenskt sammanhang år 2060 påverkar andra hållbarhetsmål när ett klimatmål om noll CO2-utsläpp är uppfyllt. Med hjälp av en matris gör vi en målkonfliktanalys med de övriga svenska miljömålen, jämställdhetsmål och mål för folkhälsan med dess 11 tillhörande målområden. Analysen visar att de potentiella målkonflikterna är fler i scenarier utan globalt klimatavtal. Detta beror främst på att vissa miljöfrågor måste behandlas på global nivå, samt att minskningen i miljöpåverkan kommer att bero på åtgärder som inte bara vidtagits i Sverige utan också globalt. Utifrån dessa tre artiklar diskuterar jag sedan olika aspekter som måste beaktas vid fastställandet av mål. Eftersom hållbarhetsmål är långsiktiga och kännetecknas av en hel del osäkerhet diskuterar jag behovet av att sätta upp "försiktigt utopiska mål" (cautiously utopian goals), det vill säga mål som kan vara omöjliga att uppnå, men möjliga att närma sig. Sådana mål kan få till stånd de djupgående förändringar som krävs för en hållbar och rättvis framtid samtidigt som de är acceptabla för de intressenter som berörs. Mål är ofta otydliga vad gäller vad som ingår eller inte. Vad gäller klimatmålen, exempelvis, är det ofta otydligt huruvida utsläpp från handel är inkluderade eller ej och vilket referensår en viss utsläppsminskning baseras på. Sådana avgränsningar bör synliggöras och helst diskuteras med avseende på hur de kan påverka till exempel andra länders utsläppsminskningar. Det finns också ett behov att skilja mål från medel för att uppnå målen, eftersom det gör det möjligt att formulera mål som kan uppnås på olika sätt. Ekonomisk tillväxt ses ofta som ett mål i sig, såsom i FN:s nya hållbarhetsmål (SDGs). Tillväxt borde dock betraktas som ett rent verktyg för att uppnå egentliga mål rörande, exempelvis, välbefinnande. Mål är också normativa och återspeglar både olika kulturella och etiska perspektiv på vad en god hälso- och sjukvård eller bostadsstandard bör vara. De underliggande värdena bör därför också synliggöras och ifrågasättas. Både inter- och intragenerationella rättviseperspektiv bör göras mer konkreta och tydliga så att sådana frågor kan följas upp. En bra start kan vara att förutom ett territoriellt perspektiv börja använda ett konsumtionsperspektiv vid upprättandet av klimat-eller markanvändningsmål, då effekten av vår konsumtion på andra länders miljö och hälsa har ökat under de senaste årtiondena.

QC 20160901

Beyond GDP Growth

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25

Rodriguez, Carlos, and carlos_rodriguez_98@yahoo com. "The need for." RMIT University. School of Global Studies, Social Science and Planning, 2006. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20061115.164324.

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This thesis explores how planning for sustainable development can be enhanced in Australia with a particular focus on strategic plans. Today, the concept of sustainable development has not been fully operationalised into plans; market and political forces still play a predominant role in planning practice. Nevertheless, some authors believe that the concept of sustainable development has reinvigorated planning. For example, there is an extensive literature on this topic within planning theory, although in practice, sustainable development has been difficult to implement. This thesis after acknowledging the relevance of economy and politics, provides an alternative approach to operationalise sustainable development in plans through a technical perspective. This perspective is based on the examination, from literature, of several techniques which deal with sustainable development. The central idea is that these techniques can be embraced under one concept,

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26

Seward, Paul. "Rethinking groundwater governance in South Africa." University of the Western Cape, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4762.

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Philosophiae Doctor - PhD
Governance is essentially the process whereby organisations or networks of organisations exercise their authority. It describes how a body with authority makes or does not make decisions, and how it implements - or does not implement - those decisions. 'Good' groundwater governance can then be defined by how fair the decision-making process is, and how effective the implementation process is. Groundwater governance in South Africa is increasingly being categorized as ineffective. The purpose of this thesis is to explore ways to improve groundwater governance in South Africa. Initial reviews of international studies of groundwater governance did not find any processes that could be directly imported into the South African governance landscape for testing. The global consensus was that there were no blueprints for improving groundwater governance, and that each case should be treated as unique. Therefore the thesis had to change from its initial aim of finding firm rules that could be tested in the South African context, to a revised aim of formulating tentative heuristics, rules, strategies and hypotheses that might be useful for further work in the South African context.An exploratory, inductive-based, loosely structured methodology was therefore employed rather than a more formal, deductive-based testing of hypotheses. In short, the objective of this thesis was concerned with formulating hypotheses rather than testing them.The novel, general, contribution made by this thesis is to synthesize global groundwater governance literature with the specific aim of improving groundwater governance in a specific country. While reviews of global literature do exist, they have thus far only been used to make generic recommendations, and have not been specifically applied to a country. Conversely, while attempts to improve groundwater governance for specific regions and countries do exist, these attempts have largely done so without synthesizing existing global knowledge. Indeed, the emphasis on national, regional and local studies has principally been to understand the factors at work affecting groundwater governance, rather than to improve governance.

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27

Jeong, Jinho. "Future visioning system for designing and developing new product concepts in the consumer electronics industries." Thesis, Brunel University, 2002. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/5374.

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This thesis discusses development of a future visioning system model that can be adopted to create new product concepts for consumer electronics companies operating in a highly competitive business environment. The research work investigates consumer electronic product companies and their market environment to identify problematic issues and indicates that a proactive new product strategy which opens new markets through developing concept-led products is a strategic priority, thus the concept development stage in new product development process is in need of improvement. An evaluation of existing concept development tools for the purpose of proactive product strategy is presented and concludes that future visioning procedure is the most appropriate tool. To develop a future visioning system model as a concept development tool, the theoretical future visioning system models are analysed and mapped to extract essential structure and contents of future visioning procedure. The consequent future visioning system model is then revised according to the findings and suggestions from the field research work which investigated four major consumer electronics product companies in practice. The findings also validates the necessity of adopting a proactive product strategy and evaluates acceptability of the future visioning system model for practical use. The final future visioning system model is defined after the opinions of the design managers are considered and applied. The major suggestions from the research findings are: (1) Executing proactive product strategy can be a valuable strategic tool (2) A new process is necessary for the companies to create one-step-ahead product (3) Future visioning system is recommended as an advanced approach that creates new product concept. (4) Future visioning system model should consist of eight stages: project initiation, environmental scanning, future visioning, generating product concepts, scenario planning, concept testing, concept visualisation, and finalized concepts. (5) Product concepts can be generated from future vision by applying backcasting. (6) Scenario planning should be used in the future visioning system model as a concept testing tool providing objective validating criteria. (7) Executing a future visioning system model creates new roles for the designer such as information integrator, process moderator, and futurist.

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Sharmina, Maria. "Russia's carbon emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2014. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/russias-carbon-emission-pathways-and-cumulative-emission-budgets(02ff183f-1bf1-4ba1-b2ea-6f3a977dfa35).html.

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Despite climate change being an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse and against a backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions, the Russian government has, thus far, failed to commit to an ambitious emission reduction target based on the latest science. For Russia to develop informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate policies, it is important to assess the scale of the challenge and explore implications of different levels of mitigation. To this end, the thesis derives Russia's cumulative emission budgets and generates associated low-carbon pathways in the context of both a re-developing economy and international climate change objectives (in particular, keeping the global mean temperature increase below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels). This thesis draws on several disciplines, bringing together bottom-up energy system modelling from engineering and physical sciences, as well as stakeholder and expert interviews from social sciences. The principal methodological approach used here is backcasting, with a number of stakeholder interviews providing a 'reality check' for the scenarios. Given the global delay in acting on climate change, the contextual 2°C scenarios generated are ambitious and extremely challenging. With significant changes on both demand and supply sides, an annual post-peak emission reduction rate of at least 10% is required to meet the cumulative budget constraint; this despite the dramatic fall in Russia's emissions in the 1990s. Such radical reduction rates are well in excess of anything achieved or, indeed, deemed possible within existing mitigation policies and integrated assessment models - either in Russia or in any other part of the world. The necessary emission reductions would involve significant material changes to the energy system. Even with early reductions, to attain a low-carbon energy system in 2050 in accordance with the 2°C cumulative emission constraint, all of the available 'mature' technological options would need to be employed. In particular, short-term mitigation can be facilitated by Russia's large energy efficiency potential and a significant biomass potential. In the long term, mitigation could draw on the country's considerable renewable energy resources. If the peak in Russia's emissions is delayed until 2020-2025, staying within a national 2°C budget constraint will require a rapid and widespread deployment of currently speculative negative-emission technologies. Whilst the suggested mitigation pathways with emissions peaking early are demanding, they are potentially less challenging and destabilising than failing to mitigate and subsequently adapting to climate change impacts of a 6-16°C temperature rise across Russia. The precautionary principle, together with the multiple uncertainties associated with negative emissions, would suggest that starting the decarbonisation process early is critical. Along with other big emitters, Russia has a pivotal role in influencing the future direction of international climate change mitigation and adaptation. Not only is Russia a major emitter of greenhouse gases and a global supplier of fossil fuels, but also it remains a major force in geopolitics, and its diverse territory is both vulnerable and resilient to the impacts of climate change. This unique confluence of circumstances leaves Russia with a challenging dilemma. The country can choose to acquiesce to short-term political and economic considerations, adopt weak mitigation measures and face potentially devastating impacts. Or it can apply its considerable attributes and powers to instigate an epoch of national and global action to secure a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. Whilst the former will see Russia subsumed into the international malaise on climate change, the latter may both quench the nation's "thirst for greatness" and fill the void of climate leadership.

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Cliffoord, John. "Use of future oriented studies in corporate environmental management." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-5815.

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Many of the future methods are used in areas like economical studies, predicting future markets or legislations that might have an effect on a company or an organization. There is a necessity for knowing what the future holds. Following sustainable development companies has begun to adopt standardized environmental management systems like EMAS and ISO 14001. The companies that use scenario methods are often companies that also use environmental management and standardized management systems, which also is the case in this study. The aim of the study is to examine how future oriented studies can be used to develop the environmental strategic arena, by suggesting possible work procedures. The aim is also to describe how different future studies and techniques theoretically can be used within the strategic environmental area and to examine the use of future studies within different companies. Four Semi-structured interviews were made with companies that both use EMS and future studies. The interviews and the theoretical framework in study were used to answer the aim.

The results indicate that company future studies only have an effect on the market area and not the company EMS, the influence at the best is only indirect. The companies are more focused on factors that can change the market and economical aspects surrounding their products and services, than on factors that can be of important in making strategic important decisions about the appearance of the future environmental arena. Future oriented studies can be of use in EMS, the forecasting used in company A or the external method used in the three other companies. The methods each have qualities that are of use in different areas of the standardized EMS. Forecasting can help the user in the beginning of the planning process of EMS, with its short term visions the user can create an understanding about which way to go and this can then be complemented with backcasting. External scenarios used in the other three companies should be able to be integrated with the environmental area of the companies. These companies have god conditions to integrate their scenario work with the EMS because of the knowledge and use of future studies today.

The ISRN in the pdf-file is incorrect. The correct ISRN is shown below.

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30

Jöhnemark, Anna-Maja. "Exploring the possibilities for implementing Collaborative Consumption within Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm : Going beyond the visions of the citizen initiative HS2020." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-170925.

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This is a futures study based on the citizen initiative HS2020 in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm. The initiative has the vision to “Renew a new city”, and further develop Hammarby Sjöstad’s environmental profile towards a sustainable development until 2020. The aim of this study is to explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption, which involves the sharing of goods, services, and space, as a contributing factor to the sustainable development of Hammarby Sjöstad. This study uses an explorative scenario approach together with backcasting, a normative scenario approach to create future images of Hammarby Sjöstad in 2020. These images explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption in six of their sub-projects. The futures images were generated based on three workshops with participants connected to HS2020’s work, and also on the literature study and the collected background information. The future images of Hammarby Sjöstad mediate how HS2020 could further develop the existing sub-projects, by focusing more on Collaborative Consumption. The solutions presented in the theory could be implemented in Hammarby Sjöstad. They could be for anyone, restricted to members, within an apartment building or a small group of people that could also own and maintain the sharing solution. Other important actors are private companies, the municipality and non-profit organization that could initiate, own and maintain these sharing solutions. The future images show that they could contribute to increased sustainability in different ways.

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31

Forslin, Ylva. "Deltagandebaserad backcasting:En processorienterad metod att planera för en hållbar stadsutveckling : -Fallstudie Borlänge/Falun." Thesis, Växjö University, School of Social Sciences, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:vxu:diva-2386.

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En hållbar utveckling är ett stort begrepp och innefattar det mesta i samhället. Sveriges regering har som uttalat politiskt mål att samhällsplaneringen ska ske mot en hållbar utveckling, men det finns idag ingen allmänt känd metod för kommunerna att använda i planeringen mot ett hållbart samhälle. Syftet med denna fallstudie har varit att genomföra en deltagandebaserad backcasting för att undersöka dess potential som metod i planeringen av en legitim och hållbar stadsutveckling, vilka för- och nackdelar metoden har, samt att undersöka betydelsen av begreppet ”En hållbar stad”. Deltagandebaserad backcasting är en kombination av traditionell backcasting och stakeholder workshops, vilket innebär att en framtidsvision skapas i seminarieform med lokala aktörer, som sedan även diskuterar och tar fram möjliga sätt att uppnå visionen. Fallstudien har genomförts i Borlänge/Falun där backcastingen har använts för att ta reda på styrkor och svagheter i regionen samt för att skapa idéer och om vad som skulle kunna göras för att utveckla regionen mer hållbart.

Undersökningen konstaterar att en beskrivning av vad som är viktig i en hållbar stad och hur en hållbar stad bör se ut måste klaras ut lokalt, och att det inte går att ge en generell beskrivning av detta eftersom det skiljer sig beroende på människors åsikter och synsätt. Resultatet visar att deltagande i planeringen för en hållbar stadsutveckling är av yttersta vikt, då den lokala situationen hamnar i fokus, engagemanget ökar och en spridning av kunskap sker. Deltagandebaserad backcasting är måluppfyllande och fungerar bra för att skapa visioner och framtidsbilder om en hållbar stad, vilket kan ge planerarna nya idéer att arbeta mot. Den stora nackdelen med metoden är svårigheterna att locka seminariedeltagare med olika bakgrunder och att få de deltagande att släppa sina redan förutfattade meningar. Eftersom alla metodens fördelar är beroende av att det finns ett brett deltagande kan hela processen riskeras om det inte finns ett tillräckligt intresse från omgivningen att delta.

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32

Olson, Petter. "What does it take for local actors in Hammarby Sjöstad to cut the consumption-based emissions by half till 2030? : A backcasting study on a local climate transition following Carbon Law." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-258912.

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How many local actors need to do what to reduce Hammarby Sjöstad’s climate impact till 2030 in alignment with "Carbon Law”, i.e. halving the citizens’ consumption-based emissions every ten years? This is demonstrated in a backcasting study of the city district. The local actors’ reduction potentials concerning ground transport, food, housing, aviation and other consumption are explored in individual transitions. The quantitative city district scenario scales up the individual transitions to city district level, asking how many local actors must do how much, starting when, for the Sjöstad’s target to be reached? The overarching backcasting has both prognostic and explorative elements but is essentially normative. It is both quantitative and qualitative, addressing the two main questions what does it take and by whom? The result shows that the city district’s aim is feasible only if Stockholm City and other external actors fulfil their climate targets and the technological development continues to advance. These are external contributions shaping the local actors’ field of options. Furthermore, the result shows that a vast majority of the households must utilize a substantial part of their full potential for the target to be met. New organizational models and actor networks must also emerge for the transition to launch. The scenario’s qualitative part illustrates the need for energy managers, local supermarkets, car sharing companies etc. to become agents of change. The transition is further catalyzed by local network builder and transition agent ElectriCITY.
Hur många lokala aktörer behöver göra vad för att minska Hammarby Sjöstads klimatpåverkan till 2030 i linje med "Carbon Law", det vill säga att halvera invånarnas konsumtionsbaserade utsläpp vart tionde år? Detta demonstreras i en backcastingstudie av stadsdelen. De lokala aktörernas reduktionspotential för marktransporter, livsmedel, bostäder, flyg och övrig konsumtion utforskas i enskilda omställningar. Det kvantitativa stadsdelsscenariot skalar upp de enskilda omställningarna till stadsdelsnivå och frågar: Hur många lokala aktörer måste göra hur mycket, och när för att Sjöstadens Carbon Law-mål ska nås? Den övergripande backcastingstudien har både prognostiska och explorativa inslag men är huvudsakligen normativ. Den är både kvantitativt och kvalitativt då den både adresserar frågan Vad krävs det och av Vem? Resultatet visar att stadsdelsmålet endast är möjligt att nås om Stockholms stad och andra aktörer uppfyller sina klimatmål och den tekniska utvecklingen framskrider. Detta är externa bidrag som formar de lokala aktörernas handlingsutrymme. Vidare visar resultatet att en majoritet av hushållen måste utnyttja en betydande del av sin fulla potential för att målet ska nås. Nya organisationsmodeller och aktörsnätverk måste också utvecklas för att omställningen ska ta fart. Scenariots kvalitativa del illustrerar behovet av att exempelvis energiförvaltare, lokala livsmedelsbutiker och bilpoolsföretag blir förändringsagenter i omställningen. Övergången katalyseras vidare av den lokala förändringsdrivaren och nätverksbyggaren ElectriCITY.

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Cassidy, Ann S., Delphine Le Page, and Sean W. Spender. "Enhancing planning for local energy systems by the strategic sustainable development framework." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2908.

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The world is facing energy supply challenges. Rising prices and finite reserves of fossil fuels, combined with necessary reductions in their use in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, will dramatically reshape the future energy supply. Among the greatest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are the energy systems that power transportation, heating and cooling, and industrial processes. It is imperative that energy planning is sustainable, secure and effectively implemented for local development. The aim of our research is to enhance the planning process that can aid authorities moving towards sustainable local energy systems. Local energy systems refer to the supply, distribution and use of energy within a municipality. In this study, we advocate applying a strategic sustainable development framework based on 'backcasting from principles of sustainability'. We analyzed global, European Union and Swedish energy objectives, as well as the results of a survey of beacon European cities to inform strategic planning guidelines for authorities moving towards sustainable local energy systems. Our research suggests that the strategic sustainable development framework provides structure to inform strategic and critical decision points for planning and implementing local energy systems.

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Olson, Petter. "Vad krävs för en halverad energianvändning i Sveriges bebyggelse till år 2050? : En backcasting studie med sex scenarion för en hållbar energianvändning i den svenska bostads- och servicesektorn." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210732.

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I Sverige står bostads- och servicesektorn för ca 40 procent av den totala energianvändningen. Riksdagen hade fram till år 2012 ett specifikt mål om att halvera energianvändningen i sektorn till år 2050. I väntan på att ett nytt mål antas skrivs att innebörden för målet kvarstår. Till 2050 ska energianvändningen ha halverats. Denna rapport är en backcastingstudie som har som mål att analysera vad som krävs för att uppnå halveringsmålet genom satsning på fyra huvudåtgärder; nyproduktion, ombyggnad, stegvis förbättring och effektivare användning av bostadsbeståndet. Sex scenarion har satts upp, ett för varje huvudåtgärd och två scenarion som kombinerar de övriga fyra. Resultatet visar vilken väg som kan tänkas vara bäst att gå och at tstora insatser för att nå målet kommer att krävas. Dessa berör bostads- och servicesektorns alla aktörer samt beslutsfattare på samhällets alla nivåer. En beräkning för den potentiella besparingen i koldioxidutsläpp till följd av energiminskningen har också gjorts. Utsläppsminskningarna kan som följd komma att bli av betydande storlek och kan bidra till att Sverige blir ett föregångsland i omställningen till ett hållbart samhälle.
In Sweden, the dwelling and service sector accounts for approximately 40 percent of the total energy use. Up until 2012, the parliament had a specific goal to reduce the energy use by half in the sector to 2050. While waiting for a new goal to be set however, the parliament states that the implication of the goal remains. The energy use shall be reduced by half before the year 2050. This report is a back-casting study that has the aim to analyze what it takes to reach the goal by focusing on four main measures; new construction, reconstruction, gradual improvement and more efficient use of the heated areas in residential buildings. Six scenarios have been set up, one for every main measure and two scenarios that combine the other four. The result shows what path might be best to choose and that extensive and rapid transformationis necessary to reach the goal. These contributions affect all the involved actors as well as stakeholders on all the different levels of society. Resulting reductions in carbon dioxide emissionsdue to the decrease in energy use have also been calculated. The potential reduction can become significant in size and contribute to making Sweden a pioneer in the transformation to asustainable society.

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Kusoffsky, Magnus. "Spårväg eller trådbuss : Idéstudie om strukturerande kollektivtrafik i Örebroregionen." Thesis, Stockholm University, Department of Human Geography, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-39925.

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Kusoffsky, Magnus (2010) Spårväg eller trådbuss – Idéstudie om strukturerande kollektivtrafik i Örebroregionen [Light rail or high-capacity trolleybus: A proposal for high-quality public transport in the Örebro area] Kulturgeografiska institutionen, avancerad nivå Masteruppsats för masterexamen i Samhällsplanering, 30 ECTS credits Handledare: Lennart Tonell Språk: Svenska

Den här uppsatsen handlar om samhällsplanering och kollektivtrafik i regionen omkring Örebro, Kumla och Hallsberg. Uppsatsens syfte är att presentera en vision för en långsiktigt hållbar Örebroregion, med ett hållbart transportsystem där kollektivtrafiken har en hög marknadsandel.

Visionen preciseras i två scenarier, som bygger på två olika trafiksystem, nämligen spårväg och duospårväg, respektive prioriterad busstrafik med trådbuss. Båda scenarierna bygger på det nuvarande busslinjenätet i Örebro, och båda innehåller en direkt anslutning från Örebro universitet till Kumla och Hallsberg.

Metoder som används i uppsatsen är scenarioplanering, backcasting, semi-struktrurerade intervjuer och deltagande observation.

Avhandlingen innehåller en litteraturstudie, som bygger på tre målbilder för samhällsplanering i Sverige: integrerad trafik- och samhällsplanering med kollektivtrafik som norm, kollektivtrafik med strukturerande egenskaper, och integrering av lokal och regional kollektivtrafik.

I två scenarierna beskrivs bland annat grundläggande tekniska specifikationer, linjenät, täckningsgrad, restider, kostnadsberäkningar, konsekvenser för stadsmiljö och samhällsplanering. Systemens för- och nackdelar jämförs, och rekommendationer lämnas för åtgärder på kortare sikt i kommunerna Örebro, Kumla och Hallsberg. Med hjälp av backcasting presenteras ett förslag på tidsplan för att förverkliga visionen inom 20 år.

Nyckelord: Kollektivtrafik, Integrerad planering, Backcasting, Spårväg, Duospårväg, Trådbuss, Bus rapid transit, Örebro län.

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Brooks, Sarah, Dan O'Halloran, and Alexandre Magnin. "Rock On! : Bringing strategic sustainable development to music festivals." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3860.

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Recreational events gather large numbers of people in concentrated areas for brief periods of time. Effects of these events extend far beyond their spatial and temporal boundaries; a music festival is one such event. This paper asks, “What are some measures that can move music festivals strategically toward sustainability?” A framework for strategic sustainable development based on backcasting from sustainability principles is applied. Research draws on pertinent literature, interviews with festival organizers and an in-depth case study with International Music Concepts. Results indicate that critical flows and management routines upon which music festivals depend contribute to systematic undermining of social and ecological systems. Festival organizers sit at the centre of these flows, and are crucial to changing them. Education to inspire behavioural change of festival organizers and other stakeholders, notably suppliers, audience and artists, appears critical to shifting music festivals toward sustainability. This can be underpinned by building in-house ‘sustainability capacity’ of festival organisations; creating strategic alliances between festival organizers; and scaling up organisational efforts to include lobbying governments for financial and other support to authenticate a high-level commitment to true sustainable development. Music festivals may then leverage their role in society to move society itself toward sustainability. A template and guidebook are presented to facilitate this shift.

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Acosta, Kerly, Arash Sangari, and Jessica Webster. "Energy Strategies towards Sustainability : a comparative analysis of community energy plans from Sweden and Canada." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2335.

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This thesis examines community energy planning in Sweden and Canada with the aim of revealing strategies that move communities towards energy sustainability. Unsustainable energy activities are identified as major threats on both local and global levels. The challenges for energy systems are discussed and a possible scenario of a future community with sustainable energy production and consumption is presented. The literature review examines community energy planning guidebooks and key theoretical and methodological concepts including ingenuity, soft energy paths and backcasting from socio-ecological principles of sustainability. Following an analysis of energy supply and demand in a broad systems context, and a review of policies and programs supporting or hindering community energy planning, energy plans from eleven Swedish and eleven Canadian communities are evaluated. Characteristics of progressive energy planning as uncovered in the literature review form a framework for evaluating the visions, strategies and actions described in the plans. Sweden is recognized as an early player in community energy planning. Although Swedish energy plans do not contain all of the identified progressive strategies, national leadership and funding have played a role in Sweden’s successes. More recent Canadian plans are found to be highly progressive, suggesting that Canadian communities who follow their plans can too be successful in transforming their energy systems towards sustainability.

Kerly Acosta, email: kerly_a@yahoo.com Arash Sangari, email: arash@stechpartner.com Jessica Webster, email: jess_violet@hotmail.com

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Head, Nicholas. "Development of a multi-criteria, GIS-based, backcasting framework model (G-BFM) for progression towards zero waste futures, for holistic resource management policy and practice in Northamptonshire by 2050." Thesis, University of Northampton, 2015. http://nectar.northampton.ac.uk/9131/.

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The complex nature of waste management and planning requires a long-term strategic policy formation approach incorporating sustainable development principles. Consequently, the transition from a waste paradigm to valuing materials as resources is central for transitioning towards a 'zero waste' future. A need is identified, via infrastructure planning, to move beyond short-term forecasting and predictive methods previously used in waste research in order to overcome target-driven decision-making. The application of a participatory backcasting methodology: visioning, baseline assessment, scenario development and feasibility testing; produced transformative scenarios which are visualised using GIS reflecting the choices, ideas and beliefs of participants. The structural governance (e.g. waste infrastructure planning and strategic waste policy) of an English county is used to evaluate the efficacy of waste management scenarios. A quantitative model was developed to test scenarios for three metrics (tonnages, economics and carbon). The final model utilises the synergy between backcasting and GIS to spatially and temporally analyse empirically quantified outputs. This structured approach produced three transformative scenarios and one reference scenario. Waste prevention and changes to systemic waste generation produced long-term tonnage reductions across the transformative scenarios. Costs of future waste management witnessed the reference scenario outperforming one of the transformative scenarios; while the highest emissions savings were attributable to the scenario most closely reflecting the notion of 'deep sustainability'. In terms of waste infrastructure planning, a centralised pattern of large integrated facilities emphasising catchments rather than administrative boundary were most effective. All three transformative scenarios surpassed the 90% recycling and recovery level used as the zero waste benchmark. The research concludes that backcasting can offer a range of potential futures capable of achieving an arbitrary definition of zero waste. Further, these futures can be visualised and analysed via GIS; enhancing stakeholder engagement. Overall, the GIS-based Backcasting Framework Model (G-BFM) produced has the potential to benefit a range of stakeholders and practitioners and is strategically scalable.

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Ebbers, Tim. "Endangered Experiences in Nature : Designing for Future Nostalgia." Thesis, Konstfack, Experience Design, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:konstfack:diva-4739.

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When outdoor recreational activities are restricted, where can we find solitude, exploration and self-reliance? Endangered Experiences in Nature is a project that creates disruptive scenarios to question the relationship we have now with landscapes. A forecast in which stargazing is replaced by watching cyborg fireflies in the sky, food is genetically engineered and getting lost can only happen with the aid of special devices. The thesis uses the tools of experience design and future studies to explore the meanings and values of nature. I analyze the experiential perspective of access to nature and outdoor recreation by focusing on experiences that will likely become inaccessible in the near future. This thesis is not about preservation but stands aspiring for recreating values humans got until now from the close relationship with natural settings. In doing so, I aspire to generate new experiences. My work therefore focuses not on what nature is but what it means to perceive something as being natural, wild, unexplored, in an age where every part of nature has been explored and exploited. My original contribution focuses on using nostalgia as an active method to create new relationships with our environment. Certain things will need to be “artificial” in order to achieve “real” experiences. The project will focus on three scenarios placed in the near future (2040). Each case study extrapolates on a particular endangered experience in wilderness (solitude, exploration and self-reliance) and is set in 3 distinct landscapes located in The Netherlands, Sweden and Romania. By doing so, I touch upon different cultural and natural influences on my design process. All scenarios encompass artificial (engineered) surrogates that question the inaccessibility to experiences in natural landscapes. With the goal to create counter-experiences in the future and therefore formulate a new way to deal with our relationship with nature conceptually and physically.

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Peng, Chen, Adele Peters, Treva Wetherell, and Valerie Yep. "Seeds of Change : Using Urban Agriculture to Move a City Towards Sustainability." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2191.

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As the global sustainability challenge intensifies, food has emerged as a critical issue in sustainable development. Growing food within city limits, or urban agriculture (UA), is one way to help increase access to fresh, local, healthy food for everyone while simultaneously reducing environmental impacts. While UA is increasing on a global scale, it is not always being supported in a strategic manner. This thesis explores the opportunity of how UA can be supported to help move cities towards sustainability. Current UA practices were evaluated based on information from literature and interviews using the five-level framework method. As a way to help provide guidance in strategic planning, the framework for strategic sustainable development (FSSD) was utilized, introducing the concepts of a full-system perspective, a principle-based definition of sustainability, and backcasting. Combining current UA success principles, stakeholder input, and the FSSD, an enhanced planning guide was created as a tool to help cities better plan for UA.

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Cécile, Hervé-Bazin, Klinkenberg Nils, and Milam Matt. "Strategically Sustainable Environmental Assessment." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3927.

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Large-scale planning initiatives can present major long-term environmental and social consequences. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is one type of approach to integrating environmental considerations into many large-scale plans and programs, and was established in the European Union by Council Directive 2001/42/EC. Practical and theoretical limitations remain, and this research considers “How can SEA be carried out for plans and programs to better support strategic decision-making toward sustainability?” Information is compiled from an extensive literature review, interviews with SEA experts, and a case study SEA. An analysis is conducted around a framework for strategic sustainable development, based on backcasting from sustainability principles. Results indicate that SEA plays an important role in mitigating environmental impacts of planning, but also faces many weaknesses relative to a truly strategic approach to sustainable development. To help fill these gaps, generic recommendations are developed for SEA practice. Built on a principle-based definition of sustainability, they are relevant to any individual SEA situation. Hypothetical applications of the recommendations are illustrated with a case study. By adopting these recommendations, SEA practitioners can enable planners to better integrate strategic sustainable development into the decisions and upstream design of plans and programs.

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Tyler, Kirk, Mohamed Bibri, and Norman Tyler. "Strategic Sustainable Development and Knowledge Management." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2529.

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The purpose of this study was to explore how organizations can apply the Strategic Sustainable Development (SSD) Framework (Robèrt et al. 2006) as a lens and filter to a Knowledge Management Framework to move an organization towards sustainability. A conceptual framework of Knowledge Management (KM) was developed and then utilized to conduct a sustainability assessment on The Natural Step (TNS) organization as a case study. The researchers explored how an understanding of KM can support SSD and aid an organization in leveraging their existing knowledge. To achieve the objective, the most commonly accepted KM frameworks were summarized through a literature review. Then the researchers’ understanding of a conceptual KM Framework was developed. The SSD lens was used to identify gaps within the KM frameworks when an organization’s ultimate goal of success is sustainability. The conceptual KM Framework viewed through the SSD lens was utilized in conducting a sustainability assessment on TNS as a case study. The authors attempted to illustrate how using SSD as a lens could assist any organization, not just NGO’s with a sustainability mandate, to enhance any Quality Management System, such as KM, to tackle global issues. The scope of the analysis was focused on understanding the role of KM as it relates to an organization’s journey towards sustainability. Specifically a strengths and weaknesses assessment was conducted. The assessment was used to identify gaps and successes in the following areas: knowledge sharing, sharing methodology and sustainable practices.

norm.tyler@community.royalroads.ca

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Lin, Shangchao, Zhenhua Zhao, and Peng Peng. "Sustainable Neighbourhood Reconstruction in the Urban District." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för ingenjörsvetenskap, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2104.

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The neighbourhood reconstruction involves three key stakeholders—municipality, builders and residents. There are some conflicts among them due to their different standpoints, and the reasons of most conflicts relate to human needs of residents when they are not met. The main purpose of this study is to create a general socially sustainable neighbourhood reconstruction process through the lens of FSSD and Max-Neef‘s human needs theory. This new process will promote the collaboration among these three key stakeholders and help residents to have their basic human needs fulfilled. First of all, a vision of a sustainable neighbourhood reconstruction process is created and amended based upon literature review and authorities‘ feedback; then a summary of the current reality of the reconstruction process is addressed in light of a case study; followed by the analysis of the gap between vision and reality. At last, different suggestions are given with the purpose of eliminating the gap.

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Hallstedt, Sophie. "A Foundation for Sustainable Product Development." Doctoral thesis, Karlskrona : Department of Mechanical Engineering, Blekinge Institute of Technology, 2008. http://www.bth.se/fou/Forskinfo.nsf/allfirst2/767bf02d08e2de4cc1257442003d4593?OpenDocument.

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Ny, Henrik. "Strategic Life-Cycle Modeling and Simulation for Sustainable Product Innovation." Doctoral thesis, Karlskrona : Blekinge Institute of Technology, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-00441.

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Many specific methods and tools have been developed to deal with sustainability problems. However, without a unifying theory it is unclear how these relate to each other and how they can be used strategically. A Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is being developed to cover this need for clarity and structure. It includes backcasting from a principled definition of sustainability as a key feature. The aim of this thesis is to study how this framework can guide the use and improvement of detailed methods and tools, in particular to support sustainable product innovation (SPI). First, a new strategic life-cycle management approach is presented, in which the selection of aspects to be considered are not based on typical down-stream impact categories, but on identified major violations of sustainability principles. Ideas of how this approach can inform various specific methods and tools are also presented, as a basis for an integrated “toolbox” for SPI. As part of such, a new “template” approach for sustainable product development (TSPD) is developed through a sustainability assessment case study of TVs. That study indicates that this approach can create a quick and strategically relevant overview of critical sustainability aspects of a product, as well as facilitate communication between top management, product developers and external stakeholders. Based on such an assessment, it is sometimes necessary to go deeper into details, including the use of specific engineering methods and tools. To facilitate a coordinated assessment of sustainability aspects and technical aspects, an introductory procedure for sustainability-driven design optimization is suggested trough a water jet cutting case study. Equally important, to get a breakthrough for SPI, it is essential to integrate sustainability aspects into the overall decision-making process at different levels in companies. An approach to assessing sustainability integration in strategic decision systems is therefore also developed through a case study involving several companies. Finally, the integration between the FSSD and general systems modeling and simulation (SMS) is discussed and tested in another water jet cutting case study. It is shown feasible to start with the FSSD to create lists of critical flows and practices, ideas of long term solutions and visions, and a first rough idea about prioritized early investments. After that, SMS can be applied to study the interrelationships between the listed items, in order to create more robust and refined analyses of the problems at hand, possible solutions and investment paths, while constantly coupling back to the sustainability principles and guidelines of the FSSD. This research shows that the combination of the FSSD with detailed methods and tools cohesively provides decision-makers with both a robust overview and, when needed, a more coordinated and effective detailed support. To utilize its full potential, this approach should now be integrated into decision processes, software and manuals for SPI.

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Ny, Henrik. "Strategic Life-Cycle Modeling for Sustainable Product Development." Licentiate thesis, Karlskrona : Blekinge Institute of Technology, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-00352.

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Decision makers are challenged by complex sustainability problems within the socio-ecological system. In response, a vast range of sustainability-related methods/tools have been developed, each focusing on certain aspects of this challenge. Without a unifying theory it is, however, unclear how these methods/tools can support strategic progress towards sustainability and how they relate to each other. This need for clarity and structure urged some sustainability pioneers to start develop an overarching framework for strategic sustainable development (SSD), often called “The Natural Step (TNS) framework”, from the NGO that has facilitated its development and application, or the “backcasting from sustainability principles (BSP) framework” from its main operational philosophy. The aim of this thesis is to study if, and in that case how, this framework can aid coordination and further development of various sustainability-related methods/tools, specifically to increase their capacity to support sustainable product development (SPD). Life-cycle assessment (LCA), “templates” for SPD and systems modeling and simulation (SMS) are the methods/tools in focus. A new strategic life-cycle management approach is presented, in which the main sustainability aspects, LCA “impacts”, are identified through socioecological sustainability principles. This creates new opportunities to avoid the reductionism that often follows from traditional system boundaries or from a focus on specific impacts. Ideas of how this approach can inform the studied tools are given. This may eventually lead to a whole integrated toolbox for SPD (a “Design Space”). As part of such a Design Space, a new “template” approach for SPD is developed. A case study of a sustainability assessment of TVs at the Matsushita Electric Group indicates that this approach can create a quick overview of critical sustainability aspects in the early part of the product development process and facilitate communication of this overview between top management, product developers, and other stakeholders. A potential integration between BSP and SMS is also discussed. It is suggested that this should start with BSP to create lists of critical presentday flows and practices, ideas of long term solutions and visions, and a first rough idea about prioritized early investments. After that, SMS should be applied to study the interrelationships between the listed items, in order to create more robust and refined analyses of the problems at hand, possible solutions and investment paths, while constantly coupling back to the sustainability principles and guidelines of the BSP framework. v Decision makers seem to need more of an overview and of simplicity around sustainability issues. A general conclusion is, however, that it is important that this is achieved without a loss of relevant aspects and their interrelations. Over-simplifications might lead to sub-optimized designs and investments paths. Combining the BSP framework with more detailed methods/tools seems to be a promising approach to finding the right balance and to get synergies between various methods/tools.

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Berlemann, Birte, and Mitch Rhodes. "Sustainable IOC : Sustainable Society." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3353.

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Impacts of the Olympic Games on the biosphere and on the communities that host them are significant. Increasing size, scope and costs, rising security concerns, cultural and environmental impacts are some of the key issues facing host cities and those cities bidding or considering bidding for the Olympic Games. One of the ideals of the Olympic Charter is to place sport at the service of the harmonious development of mankind and the three pillars of the Olympic movement are sport, culture and environment. This paper examines the IOC’s options for sustainability in its primary question: In what way could the International Olympic Committee (IOC) contribute to a global movement towards socio-ecological sustainability? The hypothesis that the IOC is an agent for social/cultural and environmental change is explored. The paper uses a principled definition of success for socio-ecological sustainability and presents a vision of a sustainable IOC and Olympic Movement within a sustainable society. From that vision specific IOC strategies along with past, present and short-term future actions are analysed to determine the obstacles and deficiencies in moving the IOC toward complying with scientifically relevant principles for socio-ecological sustainability. Systems thinking is used to identify obstacles and opportunities within the Olympic Movement. These obstacles and opportunities to strategically move the IOC toward sustainability are identified, analysed and discussed. The paper concludes with examples of possible actions the IOC could take to strategically move towards sustainability.

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Brennan, Josephine, Susan Garrett, and Mike Purcell. "Opportunities for Global Sustainability (Global ABCD)." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3469.

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In spite of our substantive knowledge about global un-sustainability, insufficient progress is being made to halt systematic socio-ecological decline. Much information is readily available on downstream impacts, with limited focus on upstream activities driving such effects. This thesis uses backcasting from socioecological principles for sustainability to identify major upstream human activities violating these principles, the underlying drivers reinforcing such activities, alternative practices already in use with potential for significant expansion, and emerging opportunities for action across different sectors of society. Results show emerging patterns of high magnitude violations across all four socio-ecological principles indicating nexus points in energy, transportation and agriculture. These activities are reinforced by our societal structure which is designed to meet human needs through a growth paradigm which in turn does not adequately consider the ongoing health of ecosystems or the sustainable functioning of society itself. Shifting to potential solutions, examples focus on themes such as renewable energy, green chemicals, organic agriculture, and self-organising network structures. Recognising that these actions may not be enough, the thesis explores elements of a global vision which could guide progress. Emerging nexus points for societal change include education, information flows (particularly the media), design (as a leverage point), self-organization, and governance.

Josephine Brennan +27 83 778 9158

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Henson, Michael, Merlina Missimer, and Stephen Muzzy. "The Campus Sustainability Movement : A Strategic Perspective." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-4099.

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Society is facing a crisis of un-sustainability. The sector of higher education is well poised to support transition to a sustainable society. This thesis assesses the efforts of the Campus Sustainability Movement (CSM) in the US and Canada relative to a Strategic Sustainable Development Framework. Key findings indicate that the CSM is utilizing tools and engaging in a variety of actions towards sustainability. However, it is largely failing to use systems thinking to understand the complex interrelationships of its actions. Most efforts lack a strategy, and when strategy is present, it follows more from barriers than from a long-term goal. Current efforts mostly focus on environmental sustainability. The authors present a backcasting from principles of sustainability approach as one means to improve the strategy of the CSM. They also propose a vision for higher education that incorporates sustainability principles and fundamental human needs in an attempt to bring some concreteness to both the environmental and social aspects of sustainability in higher education.

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Archer, Alice-marie, Rong Fei, and Rebecca Petzel. "Collaboration for Sustainability in a Networked World." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3515.

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This research explores how the web‘s collaborative potential can be harnessed strategically towards sustainability. With the success of web-scale collaborations such as Wikipedia and Linux in mind, we sought to understand how web-enabled collaborations could be used strategically, particularly to support innovation for sustainability. Building on Peter Gloor of MIT‘s research into collaborative innovation networks (COINs), a framework for collaborative organizational networks supporting innovation, we evaluated COINs‘ strategic potential for sustainability utilizing the framework for strategic sustainable development and the approach of backcasting. We found that COINs can provide a strategic and effective way to work towards sustainability because they harness collective intelligence towards innovation and support distributed working styles. Additionally they provide an organizational framework that supports socially sustainable modes of working. However, COINs can amplify the impact of unsustainable innovations, so a strong systems perspective based on principles of sustainability is required to use COINs strategically. The final product of this research is a set of recommendations for people considering utilizing COINs for sustainability.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Backcasting'

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